SoNA analysis
Prepared by: TNS South Africa
TNS South Africa
explored mixed modes
and technology
assisted research in a
pilot study to
understand reactions
to social and political
events
May 2015
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Context and approach
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Context to why this study was conducted
In February this year, President Jacob Zuma delivered his Sate of the Nation (SoNA) address,
a few days after President Barak Obama. The media helped to create interest in the build-up to
the annual South African event based on political party interactions around pertinent issues that
should be addressed.
TNS South Africa saw the opportunity to test the hypothesis that large and important events such as this will
create conversations that may for some time challenge or influence thinking and perceptions.
A mixed methodology was designed to test this by incorporating social media, a virtual qualitative
discussion group, a mobile survey and a traditional face-to-face survey. The surveys were positioned
strategically to measure perceptions during, a few days after and two weeks after the event.
Social media analysis indicated that the voluntary engagement led to short topical interactions that did not
evolve into much discussion. The following slide indicates the short space of intense discussion that fell away as
quickly as it had started. We expected the event to create a longer “tail” of conversations around specific themes,
but this was not the case. From the WhatsApp qualitative group we found very rich and detailed descriptions of
feelings and perceptions during the course of the event. We were able to build a detailed map of the reactions as it
unfolded.
Feedback from the mobile survey extracted similar emotions albeit toned down and a little more rationalised.
The survey rekindled some of the sentiment but it was not as spontaneous. The last survey, the Omnibus, two
weeks later, showed the influence of time; rationalised and toned down responses to well known concerns.
Using different methodologies to measure the impact or influence of social and political events will be an
important consideration depending on what the aim of the survey is. We thought of sharing this with you as part
of new and innovative research thinking.
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Context and approach
1. Social Media Analysis
2. WhatsApp
Group
3. Mobile Survey
4. Omnibus Survey
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Social media analysis
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The build-up to SoNA
1. Social Media
Analysis
The public were very vocal about what they wanted the President to speak about. However, there
was also a general sentiment that SoNA shouldn't take place until the Nkandla money was repaid.
Will he address
youth
unemployment?
How disruptive
will the EFF be?
Will he pay back
the money?
What will be said
about the youth
wage subsidy?
Will he be
articulate?
Source: Twitter (20 January to 27 February 2015)
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1. Social Media
Analysis
As expected, the volume of tweets relating to SoNA
spiked on the day of the address, causing SA’s first official
Twitter Storm
50000
Popular hashtags used:
# #PayBackTheMoney
#
#SoNA2015
#
#
#
ANC
nkandla
zuma
bringbackthesignal
EFF
Most retweeted tweet:
@GarethCliff:
#PayBackTheMoney
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Favourite tweet:
#SoNA2015 The EFF is not
tearing our country apart Mr
Buthelezi, our President is.
#PayBackTheMoney
Source: Twitter (20 January to 27 February 2015)
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Top communities
Community name 1. Social Media
Analysis
These communities make up:
30% of all users
41% of all tweets
% of users % of all tweets EFF 6.6 11.9 DA 3.7 5.8 AfriForum 3.1 4.3 EWN and Mmusi Maimane 2.8 3.4 ANC/Government 2.5 2.7 SABC News 2.3 3.5 Public influencers 1.9 2.4 eNCAnews 1.6 1.9 SA and African news agencies 1.5 1.8 Source: Twitter (20 January to 27 February 2015)
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Community 1 – EFF
1. Social Media
Analysis
EFF community
6.6% of all users & 11.9% of
tweets
Within the community,
conversations are
dominated by official
party voices
There is also strong
support from public
influencers such as
@sentleste
Source: Twitter (20 January to 27 February 2015)
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Community 2 – DA
1. Social Media
Analysis
DA community
3.7% of users, 5.8% of tweets
–  Approximately half
the size of the EFF
community
–  The DA News and
Helen Zille dominate
the community
–  Mmusi Maimane has
a strong presence
which further
develops after SoNA
Source: Twitter (20 January to 27 February 2015)
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1. Social Media
Why no tail…?
Analysis
For an event that created such high volumes of
engagement on the day, there was a surprisingly
small conversation tail
Emotional
hype, quick
succession
of topics
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Event
structured
and
focussed
Loss of
interest in
political
sentiment
11
WhatsApp group
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2. WhatsApp
The approach
Group
TNS conducted a qualitative mobile think tank with South
African citizens, tapping into their thoughts and feelings inthe-moment and post-SoNA
Mix of age, race and
gender
Mix of political
party supporters
12
12 February 2015
(day of SoNA)
–
13 February
A mobile community
group was set up and
asked to participate in
running commentary
Gauteng
Cape Town
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DBN
13
Emotional journey during SoNA
2. WhatsApp
Group
The overall resulting sentiment was that SoNA 2015 was a rehash of SoNA 2014, with very
little hope for change… “recycled”, “reshuffled”, “just a tweak in numbers”, and “a story told
before”.
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2. WhatsApp
Key themes that emerged
Group
We pick ourselves up
•  We love our country
•  No point running away
•  Improvement through new
leadership
Loss of confidence in the
Speaker
•  Signal jamming
•  EFF disruptions
•  DA walkout
Negative implications for South
Africa
•  Concern over global perceptions
•  Politicians fulfilling their own
agenda
•  Fear for the future of democracy
A very interesting sentiment journey
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Mobile and Omnibus Surveys
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Achieved national coverage
3. Mobile Survey
4. Omnibus Survey
TNS Omnibus Feb 2015 Survey
27 Feb - 18 Mar 2015
Base: 2 000
TNS Mobile SoNA Survey
13 - 14 February 2015
Base: 1 100
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4.4% 3.5% 3.5% Failed to address issues / should have answered the ques(ons Pay back the money / Zuma Speaker should not have allowed that / No order in the house Parliament not working / Speech did not address the problems top / All for themselves all right 3.9% It is all corrupt / Corrup(on at the 4.3% SoNA was good / All fine / It was I did not follow / Not interested party poli(cs is about 5.5% Democracy at work / This is what DisrespecDul / Do not listen to one another 6.4% No respect for one another / par(es behave like that This is just party poliHcs / Poli(cal ANC did nothing wrong / allow President to deliver his speech 8.5% Respect the President and ANC / Chaos Out of control / Out of order / us / Hooligans It was a circus / Made a mockery of Barbaric / Disgraceful Embarrassing / Disgus(ng / Rekindle sentiment using mobile
survey after a few days of time to think…
3. Mobile Survey
15.5% 10.7% 8.5% 3.4% 3.2% 18
4. Omnibus Survey
Comparing the results…
The electricity/Eskom
situation
49%
Addressing unemployment
30%
Improving service delivery
30%
Addressing corruption
Growing the SA economy
The poor state of education
Violent crime
Reducing government
wastage
Removing incompetent
government employees
Nkandla
Addressing xenophobia
21%
27%
20%
13%
15%
16%
21%
12% 13%
10% 14%
8%
31%
7% 11%
The poor state of the health
6% 10%
system
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28%
24%
16%
29%
Key topics highlighted in Omnibus survey
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Learnings and Summary
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Why the different results between the surveys?
Daniel Kahneman’s dichotomy between the two modes of thought illustrate the
differences between the Mobile Survey and the Omnibus survey very well:
"System 1" is fast, instinctive and emotional
"System 2" is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. .
Mobile Survey
“System 1” thinking
Omnibus Survey
“System 2” thinking
On a mobile device
Interview led survey discussion
Instant reaction
Spoke to friends and family
Shortly after event
A number of days after the event
Little interference from outside world
Have heard media reports
Learnings and summary
1.  Social Media Analysis: In-the-moment and unprompted. Opinions expressed on a
large scale, but no influence over conversation. Often high emotional intensity
2. WhatsApp Group: Stimulusdriven platform, yields very rich
detail. Ideal for short, focused
engagement
3. Mobile Survey: Highly flexible.
Interviewing starts immediately, with
short turnaround. Ideal to allow some
time to reflect over event. Good
sentiment analysis
4. Omnibus Survey:
Rationalised perception,
media influence a reality.
Longer questionnaire can
be administered
Not all methodologies are created equal
Optimising through methodology integration
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Thank you!
For more information, please contact:
Jan Wegelin Senior Team Leader
Political and Social Research
Johannesburg, South Africa
o +27 11 778 7500
d +27 11 778 7730 e Jan.Wegelin@tnsglobal.com © TNS