UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Department of Urban Planning UP 239 Special Topics in Regional and International Development Housing Markets and Policy Wednesdays 9:00-11:50 4357B Public Affairs Building Professor Paavo Monkkonen Telephone: 310-482-7733 Email: paavo@luskin.ucla.edu Office Hours: Tuesday and Wednesday 2:00 to 4:00 or by appointment Course Description Urban housing markets are uniquely complicated and important. Access to decent housing is crucial to the well-being of any society, the construction industry is an important part of the economy, and housing is often the dominant land-use in cities. Government policy and city planning shape the way housing markets function in a multitude of direct and indirect ways. As the world continues to urbanize and income inequality grows, housing policy has become increasingly important and contentious. Moreover, as the recent global financial crisis that began in the United States crystalized, there is a deep connection between housing markets and the global financial system, with implications that scholars still do not completely understand. The purpose of this course is firstly to investigate the way urban housing markets work in a general sense, and how a wide variety of government interventions in housing markets affect affordability and access to housing, as well as their indirect impacts. We will explore examples from multiple countries (e.g. Mexico, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, and Thailand) to understand how markets are shaped by different institutional, economic and cultural settings. Students will engage in critical analysis of quantitative measures of housing markets, and carry out a research project on a topic of their choosing. Course Objectives After completing this course, students should have: - An understanding of the mechanisms that drive supply and demand in urban housing markets; A framework for understanding how policy and institutions shape housing markets; Familiarity with various housing subsidy programs, including the justifications for different policies and the myriad difficulties with their provision and administration; An understanding of how public policy and planning efforts shape neighborhoods, influence where people live, and how residential location affects household opportunities; 1 Course Objectives (continued) - - A basic understanding of the role of government policies and incentives in the development of housing finance systems; An appreciation for the growing importance of mortgage-backed securities and the globalization of housing finance and the role these instruments played in the recent housing crisis; and A high-quality, individual research paper on a topic of their choosing. Course format and assignments The course format is a combination of lectures and discussions. In the first half of the class time, the instructor will lecture on the week’s topic. The second half of class will be a discussion in a seminar format, so that topics of interest to students can be covered at greater length. As such, participation by all students is important. Students will contribute to discussions in class, as well as by submitting two discussion questions per week via the course website. These questions can stem from the week’s readings or simply be related to the week’s topic. Participation will be 10% of the final grade. In addition to participation, there will be two short assignments, one independent research paper plus presentation, and a final exam. Some details below: - Short assignment 1 (10% of final grade): Analyze the output of a hedonic regression of housing prices in two cities in Mexico. You will be given the tables of regression coefficients and asked to describe them and speculate on the differences between the cities. Two to four pages (double-spaced), due in week three. - Short assignment 2 (10% of final grade): Analyze the housing market of a city in the United States by assessing changes in prices, population and demographics, construction activity, and rental vs. ownership trends presented in HUD reports. Two to four pages (double-spaced), due in week five. - Independent research paper and presentation on a housing policy of your choice (30% paper, 10% presentation). After choosing a housing policy to study with input from instructor, you will carry out a review of academic literature and other writing about the policy, and conduct at least three phone interviews with knowledgeable practitioners. In addition, if possible, the collection and analysis of primary data on the policy is also encouraged. Write a roughly 20 paged (double-spaced) paper on the policy, assessing various dimensions of it, and make an eight minute presentation about your findings in class in week nine or ten. - Final exam (30% of final grade). 2 Schedule of Course Topics A. Housing Markets 1. Housing and housing problems 2. Housing market analysis and the four quadrant model 3. Urban land markets; accessibility and formality B. Government intervention in housing 4. Governments and housing markets: A framework 5. Supply-side policies 6. Demand-side policies 7. New/alternative housing policies C. Housing finance and financial crises 8. Why is housing finance so hard to get right? 9. The US housing market and the global financial crisis of 2007 in context D. Presentations 10. Students present the results of their independent research Readings In addition to readings available on the internet or via email, we will cover the majority of two books in this course, both which are available at the UCLA Bookstore at LuValle Commons. Schwartz, Alex. 2010. Housing Policy in the United States. New York: Routledge. DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Prentice Hall. Week 1. Housing problems and housing studies DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Ch. 1 & 2. (Textbook) Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 1 & 2 (Textbook) Abrams, Charles. 1964. Man’s Struggle for Shelter in an Urbanizing World. Ch. 1 & 2. (scans) Davis, Mike. 2006. Planet of Slums: Urban Involution and the Informal Working Class. London: Verso. Ch. 1 & 2. (scans) Stone, Michael. 2005. “Housing Affordability: One-Third of a Nation Shelter Poor” in Bratt, Rachel G. et al A Right to Housing: Foundation for a New Social Agenda. Philadelphia: Temple. 3 Week 1 Optional Engels, Frederick. 1872. The Housing Question. Pamphlet. Burns, Leland and Leo Grebler. 1978. The Housing of Nations: Analysis and Policy in a Comparative Framework. Ch 1 & 9 (scan) Quigley, John and Steven Raphael. 2004. Is Housing Unaffordable? Why Isn’t It More Affordable? The Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(1): 191-214. Ellen, Ingrid Gould, and Margery Austin Turner. 1997. Does Neighborhood Matter? Assessing Recent Evidence. Housing Policy Debate, 8 (4): 833-866. Sharkey, Patrick. 2009. Neighborhoods and the Black-White Mobility Gap. New York: Pew. Monkkonen, Paavo. 2012. Housing Finance and Increasing Socioeconomic Segregation in Mexico. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(4): 757-772. OECD. 2011. Housing and the economy: policies for renovation, in Going for Growth, OECD. http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/512/house-rules Week 2. Housing market analysis: Supply and demand of a uniquely complicated good DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Pages 182-193 and Ch. 10. (Textbook) Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 11 (Textbook) Whitehead, Christine M. E. 1999. “Urban Housing Markets: Theory and Policy,” in E. S. Mills and P. Cheshire, eds, Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. North Holland, Elsevier Science Direct B.V. 3. pp 1559 - 1594. Kain, John, and Quigley, John. 1970. Measuring the Value of Housing Quality Journal of the American Statistical Association. One city’s Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis from HUD. Optional Gyourko, Joseph, Christopher Mayer, and Todd Sinai. 2006. “Superstar Cities.” NBER Working Paper No. 12355. Buckley, Robert and Ashna Mathema. 2007. Is Accra a Superstar City? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4453. 4 Week 3. Urban land markets DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Ch. 3 & 4. (Textbook) Dowall, David E. 1993. Establishing Urban Land Markets in the People's Republic of China. Journal of the American Planning Association 59(2): 182-192. Tian, Li. 2008. The Chengzhongcun Land Market in China: Boon or Bane? A Perspective on Property Rights. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 32(2): 282–304. Kok, Nils, Monkkonen, Paavo, & Quigley, John. 2014. Land Use Regulations and the Value of Land and Housing: An Intra-Metropolitan Analysis. Journal of Urban Economics. Gough, Katherine and Paul W.K. Yankson. 2000. Land Markets in African Cities: The Case of Peri-urban Accra, Ghana. Urban Studies 37(13): 2485-2500. Optional Turner, Margery Austin and Stephen L. Ross. 2005. “How Racial Discrimination Affects the Search for Housing” in The Geography of Opportunity, Race and Housing Choice in Metropolitan America, Xavier de Souza Briggs, ed. Washington, DC: Brookings. (scan) Jones, Gareth and Ward, Peter. 1998. Privatizing the commons: Reforming the ejido and urban development in Mexico. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 22(1): 76–93. Mukhija, Vinit. 2014. “Outlaw In-Laws: Informal Second Units and the Stealth Reinvention of Single Family Housing.” pp. 39-58 in Mukhija and Loukaitou-Sideris (eds.) The Informal American City: Beyond Taco Trucks and Day Labor. MIT Press. (scan) Monkkonen, Paavo, Kelvin SK Wong and Jaclene Begley. 2012. Economic Restructuring, Urban Growth, and Short-term Trades: The Spatial Dynamics of the Hong Kong Housing Market, 1992-2008. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 42(3): 396-406. Week 4. Governments and housing markets: A framework for analysis and local policy Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 4 (Textbook) DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Ch. 13. (Textbook) Apgar, William. 1990. Which housing policy is best? Housing policy Debate 1(1): 1-32. 5 Priemus, Hugo and Frans Dieleman. 2002. Social Housing Policy in the European Union: Past, Present and Perspectives. Urban Studies 39(2): 191–200. Angel, Shlomo. 2001. The Housing Policy Assessment and Its Application to Panama. Journal of Housing Economics 10, 176–209. Optional Angel, Schlomo. 2000. Housing Policy Matters: A Global Analysis, Oxford University Press. Ch. 7-11. (scan) Quigley, John M. and Steven Raphael. 2004. Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California. The American Economic Review 95(2): 323-328. Monkkonen, P. and L. Ronconi. 2013. Land-Use Regulations, Compliance and Land Markets in Argentina. Urban Studies, 50(10): 1951-1969. Deng, L. Q. Shen, and L. Wang. 2011. The Emerging Housing Policy Framework in China. Journal of Planning Literature, 26(2) 168-183. World Bank. 1993. Housing: Enabling Markets to Work. Washington, DC. Keivani, Ramin, Mattingly, Michael, and Majedi, Hamid. 2008. Public Management of Urban Land, Enabling Markets and Low-income Housing Provision: The Overlooked Experience of Iran. Urban Studies 45(9): 1825-1853. Week 5. National housing policies: The supply side Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 6 (Textbook) Monkkonen, Paavo. 2013. Housing Deficits as a Frame for Housing Policy: Demographic Transition, Economic Crisis and Household Formation in Indonesia. International Journal of Housing Policy, 13(3) 247-267. Lee, James and Yip, Ngai Ming. 2006. Public Housing and Family Life in East Asia: Housing History and Social Change in Hong Kong, 1953-1990. Journal of Family History 31(1): 66-82. Galster, George. 1997. Comparing demand‐side and supply‐side housing policies: Sub‐market and spatial perspectives. Housing Studies 12(4): 561-577. Yates, Judith, and Christine Whitehead. 1998. In Defense of Greater Agnosticism: A Response to Galster's 'Comparing Demand-side and Supply-side Housing Policies' Housing Studies 13(3): 415-423. 6 Optional Sim, Loo Lee, Shi Ming Yu, and Sun Sheng Han. 2003. Public housing and ethnic integration in Singapore. 2003. Habitat International 27: 293–307. McClure, Kirk. 2008. The LIHTC Goes Mainstream and Moves to the Suburbs. Housing Policy Debate. Popkin et al. 2009. Has Hope VI Transformed Residents' Lives? New Evidence from the Hope VI Panel Study. Housing Studies. Castells, M., Goh, L., Kwok, R.Y.W. 1990. The Shek Kip Mei Syndrome: Economic Development and Public Housing in Hong Kong and Singapore. London: Pion. (Library) Week 6. National housing policies: The demand side Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 7 & 8 (Textbook) Ferguson, Bruce and Jesus Navarette. 2003 New approaches to progressive housing in Latin America: A key to habitat programs and policy Habitat International 27(2): 309–323. Gilbert, Alan. 2004. Helping the poor through housing subsidies: lessons from Chile, Colombia and South Africa. Habitat Internaitonal 28(1): 13–40. Ch. 1 & 2 of Ward, Jimenez, and Di Virgilio (eds). 2015. Housing Policy in Latin American Cities. Routledge. (scan) Optional Baum-Snow, Nathaniel. 2007. Did Highways Cause Suburbanization? The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(2): 775-805. Field, Erica. 2005. Property rights and investment in urban slums. Journal of the European Economic Association Papers and Proceedings. Imbroscio, D. 2012. Beyond mobility: The limits of liberal urban policy. Journal of Urban Affairs 34(1): 1–20. Deluca, S. 2012. What is the role of housing policy? Considering choice and social science evidence. Journal of Urban Affairs 34(1): 21–28. Week 7. New and alternative housing policies 7 Mukhija, Vinit. 2001. Enabling Slum Redevelopment in Mumbai: Policy Paradox in Practice. Housing Studies 16(6): 791-806. Mukhija, Vinit and Scott-Railton, John. 2014. The Importance of Design in Affordable Housing: Lessons From Mutual Self-Help Housing in California Housing Policy Debate 23(4): 765-780. Boonyabancha, S. 2005. Baan Mankong: going to scale with “slum” and squatter upgrading in Thailand. Environment and Urbanization 17(1): 21-46. Emmeus Davis, John. 2010. Origins and Evolution of the Community Land Trust in the United States. Pp 3-47 in Davis (Ed) The Community Land Trust Reader, Lincoln Institute. Stone, Katherine. 2010. The 30-year Prison. The New York Times. August 11. Optional Ballesteros, Marife and Dam Vertido. 2004. Can group credit work for housing loans? Some evidence from CMP. PIDS Policy Notes No 2004—05, Philippine Institute for Development Studies, Makati City. Dolowitz, David and Marsh, David. 2000. Learning from Abroad: The Role of Policy Transfer in Contemporary Policy-Making Governance: An International Journal of Policy and Administration 13(1): 5–24. Week 8. Why is housing finance so hard to get right? Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 3 (Textbook) DiPasquale, Denise, and William C. Wheaton. 1996. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. Pages 193-212 (Textbook) Renaud, B. 1987. Another look at housing finance in developing countries. Cities 4: 28–33. Chiquier, Loic and Lea, Michael (Eds.) 2009. Housing Finance Policy in Emerging Markets. The World Bank: Washington, DC. Ch 1-4. Planet Money podcast: http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/02/18/133847397/whenborrowers-dont-pay-should-the-bank-take-everything Lowenstein, Roger. “Who Needs the Mortgage Interest Deduction?” The New York Times Magazine, March 5, 2006. Phillips, Matt. 2014. Most Germans don’t buy their homes, they rent. Here’s why. Quartz. Optional 8 Gabriel, Stuart A. and Stuart S. Rosenthal. 2009. “Government Sponsored Enterprises, the Community Reinvestment Act, and Home Ownership in Targeted Neighborhoods.” In Housing Markets and the Economy: Risk, Regulation, and Policy (Glaeser and Quigley eds). Cambridge: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. (scan) Monkkonen, Paavo. 2011. The Housing Transition in Mexico: Expanding Access to Housing Finance. Urban Affairs Review 47(5): 672-695. Glaeser, Edward L., and Jesse M. Shapiro. 2002. The Benefits of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction. Cambridge: NBER. Oswald, Andrew. 2009. The Housing Market and Europe’s Unemployment Problem. Ch. 2 in Casper van Ewijk, Michiel van Leuvensteijn (eds) Homeownership and the Labour Market in Europe (scan) Week 9. The US housing market and the global financial crisis of 2007 in context Schwartz, Alex. Ch. 12 & 13 (Textbook) This American Life podcast: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/355/thegiant-pool-of-money Shiller, Robert. 2000. “Irrational Exuberance.” Princeton University Press. Ch. 7-9. (scan) Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2008. Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison NBER Working Paper No. 13761. Optional Monkkonen, Paavo. 2014. The Role of Housing Finance in Mexico’s Vacancy Crisis. Working Paper. Quigley, John. 2001. Real Estate and the Asian Crisis. Journal of Housing Economics 10, 129– 161. Kingsley, G. Thomas and Robin Smith, and David Price. 2009. The Impacts of Foreclosures on Families and Communities. The Urban Institute. Lewis, Michael. 2010. The Big Short. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. (library) 9