GICWED Gulf Investment Corporation Weekly Economic Digest Volume 2, Issue 96, 01 November 2012 Inside this Issue: The Bottom Line: Clearing House Systems Do the Chinese People Dislike the Yuan? In Focus The Bottom Line: Clearing House Systems This issue of the digest briefly highlights salient aspects of clearing, payment, and settlement systems in the USA, GCC, Europe, Japan, and China. The Clearing House in the US is considered the oldest organization in the field as it was established in 1853. Its main activities include payments, clearing, and settlement services to banks and financial institutions, occupying 50% of US deposits and fund transfers, check-image payments, and automated clearing houses. An important note on the clearing of derivatives is that as part of the Reform plan in 2009, the Option Clearing Corporation was launched in March 2010 to back equity derivatives. InBahrain, the CBB operates and manages the national payment and In Focus settlement systems. The CBB operates a Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) System where all inter-bank payments are processed and settled in real time on-line mode. The RTGS system is multi-currency capable and based on Straight Through Processing (STP) and at the end of each business day, the system will transfer any remaining balances from banks’ RTGS accounts to the banks clearing accounts. The CBB offers an Automated Cheque Clearing System (ACS), which 1 was implemented in 1993 . In Kuwait, the Kuwait Clearing Company (KCC) was established in 1982 after the collapse of the unofficial stock market, also known as Souk Al-Manakh crisis. An Amiri decree in 1983 was issued in order to establish the Kuwait Stock Exchange that later on in 1986 appointed KCC to act on its behalf as a clearing, settlement and depository agent for all security and derivatives transactions at the KSE. KCC was a pioneer in introducing derivates to the region. Most recently, KCC upgraded its systems TCS BaNCS to the new version, eliminating legacy systems like the Registrar Services System, and hence minimizing operational risks. This system now allows KCC 220,000 2 customers to have real time information and reporting . In Oman, in September 2006, a joint effort between HP Middle East and the Central Bank of Oman was released to the public, announcing the completion of the Automated Clearing House solution (ACH), complementing the Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS). The ACH, the RTGS, and the Check Imaging System are the building blocks 3 that will aid in achieving real time settlement of payments . Also, such systems pertain credit and counterparty risk reduction, allow more transparent insight to determinants of economic activity, and 4 finally impose a high systemic value . The Qatar Payment System (QPS) is designed on the concept of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and Electronic Straight Through Processing (e_STP). QPS is based on a swift network that consists of inter-bank payments and settlements. RTG permits all banks operating in Qatar to make immediate inter-bank money transfers through their accounts with QCB. QCB’s clearing system is the set-off by using electronic records and scanned images of cheques. e_STP is a system designed to monitor intra-day transactions. The system monitors a movement of a trade from entry to final processing and 5 reconciliation . 1 The Central Bank of Bahrain. Source:www.tcs.com, Press Releases July 30 2012. www.ameinfo.com, October 2006. 4 Central Bank of Oman. 5 Source: Qatar Central Bank. In Saudi Arabia, the Capital Market Law provides for the establishment of the Securities Depository Center solely entrusted to execute the transactions of deposit, transfer, settlement, clearing and registering ownership of securities traded on the exchange. The functions of the Securities Depository Center are currently operated by the Saudi stock exchange (Tadawul). Executed securities must be cleared and settled according to a list of provisions and procedures. Finally, the UAE central bank developed a mechanism, called UAEFTS, for fund transfers where transfers of money take place from one bank to another through the UAE’s central bank system. While the mechanism is the country’s Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), the number of transfers undertaken daily reaches 8,000, totaling AED 10 bn with no limit on the amount of funds that could be th transferred. Effective from April 14 2012, all banks in the UAE are required to accept and process AED payment instructions through UAEFTS and to switch from SWIFT financial messages to a file based settlement system. With the implementation of UAEFTS, usage of SWIFT messages will be discontinued for all AED payments between banks, whereas SWIFT messages will continue for other currency payments. Other forms of payments include cheque clearings, which started in July 2008, with the number of cheques cleared daily amounting to 97,000, totaling AED 3.8 bn. ATMs is another payment method that started in 1996, where 3,200 ATMs that belong to 45 banks are connected to GCCNET 6 with monthly withdrawal transactions reaching four million . Europe, has a number of clearing houses, including the European Multilateral Clearing Facility (EMCF) which serves as Europe’s largest cash equities clearing company, and focuses on providing reliable services against transparent and predictable pricing and using robust 7 risk management systems . The EMCF delivers services to 20 European markets through 10 multilateral trading facilities (MTF) and exchanges. Another leading clearing house is London’s Clear net Group that serves major international exchanges and platforms, as well as a range of OTC markets. It clears a broad range of asset classes including: securities, exchange traded derivatives, energy, freight, interbank interest rate swap and euro and sterling denominated bonds and repos. The Bank of Japan provides two types of safe and convenient settlement assets. One is banknotes, which are used by many individuals and the other is deposits in BOJ accounts, which are used by financial institutions. The bank also provides a system to settle financial transactions by using BOJ accounts. Funds transfers between BOJ accounts are used to settle interbank money market transactions, the cash legs of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and other securities transactions, and net positions arising from private-sector clearing systems. The bank has introduced real-time gross settlement (RTGS) as the sole settlement mode for BOJ-NET FTS. At the same time, given that settlement under RTGS requires a larger amount of liquidity during the day, the bank has established an intraday overdraft facility to support financial institutions' funding. Following the conversion to RTGS, the bank has been working on the next-generation RTGS (RTGS-XG) project of the BOJ-NET FTS, which will enable large-value payments previously handled by the two private-sector deferred net settlement (DNS) systems -- the Zengin Data Telecommunication System (Zengin System) and the Foreign Exchange Yen Clearing System (FXYCS) -- to be brought within the 2 3 Website: www.gic.com.kw Telephone No: +965 2222-5000 6 7 The Central Bank of UAE. http://www.euromcf.nl/ Volume 2 Issue 96 Page | 2 BOJ-NET FTS. As part of the project, the bank introduced liquidity8 saving features into the BOJ-NET FTS . Finally, in recent years, China’s payment system has developed rapidly as it becomes more market oriented and specialized. China’s payment systems include the High Value Payment System (HVPS), the Bulk Electronic Payment System (BEPS), interbank fund transfer system, interbank bankcard payment system, cross-bank clearing system for online payments, intra-city bill clearing system and foreign currency payment system. In 2011, this payment system processed 15.5 bn transactions amounting to 1992 trillion Yuan of which 372 million transactions were processed by the PBC’s HVPS with a total value of 1335 trillion Yuan, about 29 times of GDP for 2011. Non-cash payment transactions increased by 22% y-o-y in 2011 with a value of 1104trillion Yuan were processed. The commercial paper and bank card transactions reached a trading volume of 301 and 324 trillion Yuan respectively with a 38.6% penetration rate of bank cards while 325 institutions gained access to the Electronic Commercial Draft System (ECDS). At the year-end, 120 institutions were accessed to the interbank on line payment system, which was extended to the whole country in the beginning of the year, with a daily average of 212 thousand transactions processed or an increase of 400% y-o-y. The PBC also promoted the establishment of the China Association of Payment and Settlement (CAPS) as an exploration in promoting the industry’s self regulation to complement government supervision and 9 regulation . In Focus The UAE prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid AlMaktoum, has announced approval of a 2013 federal budget that implements a heavy emphasis on social spending but without the deficits of the last two years. The budget, a part of the three-year government financial plan with total spending of AED 133 billion, envisions a total spending of AED 44.6 billion ($12.1 billion) and no deficits. The UAE federal budget accounts for only around 11% of overall fiscal spending in the UAE, with Abu Dhabi composing the major chunk, and six other individual emirates making up the rest. Sheikh Mohammed also said that social spending will have the largest share of 51% of the budget, while education will account for 22% and water and electricity for 12%. The prime minister also noted that the 2013 budget will prioritize health, education & social benefits for citizens as well as the improvement of government services (Zawya, October 29, 2012). Steel producers in Saudi Arabia are set for a busy few years, with growth in the industry driven by rising demand due to state-backed investments and increasing activity in the private sector. However, even with additional capacity, the sector is working to bridge the supply gap. The Kingdom is already the largest steel producer in the Middle East and North Africa, and a recent estimate from industry research firm RNCOS states that steel consumption will rise by almost 20% per year between 2012 and 2015, with steel rod, wire, bar and reinforcing bar all currently in high demand. The growth projections for the coming years are now double those RNCOS made earlier in 2012, which put the increase in demand at around 10% per year. The company expects steel consumption to be well over 12m tons this year, as more projects come off the drawing board (Oxford Business Group, 30 October 2012). The King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KA-Care), created in 2010 to develop renewable energy sources in Saudi Arabia, is planning a 17GW nuclear power programmed by 2032. Although still in its infancy, sources close to KA-Care suggest Riyadh’s nuclear plan could include 16 reactors spread around the country and costing $7 billion each, but this could change as the programe evolves (MEED, 20 September 2012). Do the Chinese Dislike the Yuan? Chinese capital flight has been significant for the past years estimated at $37 bn in H2 2011, followed by $68bn in Q2 2012 after probability of a hard landing in China increased again. During the third quarter 2012 capital outflows are estimated at $31bn, pulled down by the effect of QE3, and the weakening of the USD. The capital flight pattern is discontinued by sudden inflows of hot money or speculative money, betting on a strong Yuan and an economic recovery for China. Despite the government-imposed upper sealing transfer of $50,000 per year outside the country, Chinese investors are channeling their wealth through stock markets and real estate outside the country. However, the cost of this financial suppression is high since inflows of foreign exchange from trade surpluses and net FDI are not showing up in the foreign reserves accounts, through a manipulation of 10 invoices, underestimating exports, and overestimating imports . Hence, China’s trade balance is inevitably much higher than what is currently being reported. China’s major trading partners are the EU, the US, Japan and the GCC. China’s trade has risen appreciably with its partners: For example, its trade with the GCC now accounts for nearly 10% of the total GCC trade. But China’s trade with other countries is also increasing. For instance, a close look at China’s ratio of imports from Australia and Canada compared to the rest of China’s trading partners reveals a visible trend. China’s share of imports from Australia is steadily rising since 2003, bouncing from an annual average of 1.77% in 2003 to 4.64% in 2011. Meanwhile, the share of imports from Canada averaged 1.24% throughout the last 12 years. China’s share of exports with Australia and Canada were relatively close to each other in early 2000 and up to 2009, where the share of exports to Australia started to trend upwards versus a downwards sloping trend to Canada. 8 9 The Central Bank of Japan. People’s Bank of China “ 2011 Annual Report”. The Economist, “ Capital Outflows, The flight of the renminbi” 27/10/2012. 10 Information: GICWED is a weekly economic digest, produced by the Economics Division at GIC. GICWED provides weekly review and analysis of unfolding global and regional developments. Contributors to GICWED are: Dalal Al-Jaser, Dalma Al-Essa, Emilia D’Costa, Hiba Itani, Joby Ditto & Dr. Magdy Ali. Contact: Dr. Sulayman Al-Qudsi, Email address: salqudsi@gic.com.kw Phone No: 2222-5141. 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