Discussion Materials
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
June 2012
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
...A Promising Macroeconomic Outlook...
Growing GDP & GDP per Capita
Consistently Increasing Population
USD bn
USD
1,000
900
80.0
12,000
70.0
800
10,000
700
m people
14,000
60.0
50.0
600
8,000
40.0
500
6,000
400
300
4,000
30.0
20.0
200
2,000
100
0
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP
Actual
10.0
0.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP / Capita
Forecast
Actual
Forecast
Source: Turkish Treasury, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Slide 2
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
...With Significant Growth Potential...
Strong Recovery in Real GDP Growth (%)
Ranking Among the Fastest Growing Economies in the World (2011, G20 Countries)
12.0%
10.0%
9.4%
8.9%
8.4%
8.0%
6.8%
6.9%
6.2%
6.0%
5.3%
5.0%
4.7%
4.0%
8.5%
4.0%
3.1%
2.0%
1.1%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-3.4%
-4.7%
-6.0%
-5.7%
-8.0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China
Turkey
India
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Mexico
Korea
South Africa
Germany
G20
Brazil
Canada
Australia
USA
France
EU
UK
Italy
Japan
-1.0%
Earthquake in Turkey
Financial Crisis
Forecast
9.5%
8.5%
7.3%
6.8%
6.5%
3.9%
3.6%
3.1%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.2%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.4%
-0.7%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
Source: OECD & IMF, Press Release
Source: Turkish Treasury, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Slide 3
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
...On the Back of a Strong Banking System...
Significant Improvement in Inflation Rate (%)
69.9% 68.8%
Strong Banking & Financial Sector
CAR (Tier 1 Cap. to Risk Weig. Assets) - G20
69.3%
39.1%
29.7%
18.4%
9.3%
7.7%
9.7% 8.4% 10.1%
10.3%
6.5% 6.4%
7.2%
5.5%
Turkey - Q311
Indonesia - Q411
Mexico - Q311
Canada - Q211
UK - 2010
Argentina - 2010
USA - Q311
Brazil - Q311
Germany - Q311
South Africa - Q211
Russia - Q311
Austria - Q311
Rep. of Korea - Q311
France - 2010
Japan - Q111
China - 2010
Australia - Q311
Italy - Q211
India - Q111
14.9%
14.7%
14.1%
13.5%
13.2%
13.1%
12.9%
12.9%
12.5%
12.0%
11.7%
11.6%
11.4%
10.8%
10.7%
10.1%
10.0%
9.4%
9.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Source: IMF, Financial
Soundness Indicators
8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Earthquake in Turkey
Financial Crisis
Forecast
Source: Turkish Treasury, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Ukraine - Q411
Romania - Q311
Greece - Q311
Hungary - Q411
Bosnia & Herz. - Q411
Italy - Q211
Russia - Q311
Portugal - Q311
Bulgaria - Q411
Czech Rep. - Q311
Spain - Q211
UK - 2010
USA - Q311
Denmark - Q311
Brazil - Q311
Turkey - Q311
Austria - Q311
Japan - Q111
India - Q111
Mexico - Q411
Australia - Q411
China - 2010
Canada - Q211
14.70%
14.20%
13.40%
13.30%
11.80%
11.0%
7.20%
6.90%
6.40%
5.50%
5.30%
4.0%
3.8%
3.50%
3.5%
3.1%
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.1%
0.8%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Slide 4
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
...Supported by Stable Economic Fundamentals...
Central Government Budget Balance (as % of GDP) [-]
Gross Public Debt to GDP Ratio (%)
14
12
90%
11.9
70%
10
(-) %
80%
11.2
8.8
60%
8
50%
5.5
5.4
6
40%
3.6
4
1.6
1.5
2
30%
2.8
1.8
0.5
20%
10%
0%
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Turkish Treasury, Ministry of Finance
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Turkish Treasury, Ministry of Finance
Selected Countries - Government Budget Balance (as % of GDP):
Selected Countries – Public Debt to GDP (%)
 Austria: -3.6%
 Austria: 72%
 Czech Rep.: -3%
 Germany: 81%
 France: -4%
 Italy: 120%
 Germany: -2.3%
 Belgium: 98%
 Italy: -3%
 France: 85%
 Poland: -7%
 UK: 77%
 Spain: -7%
 Greece: 165%
 Turkey: -2.8%
 Turkey: 42%
Slide 5
Macroeconomic Overview of Turkey
...Driving FDI and M&A Volume...
Foreign Direct Investment “FDI” (USD bn)
M&A Deal Volume and Number of Deals
35.0
22.0
300
20.2
30.0
18.2
241
16.8
13.0
11.5
10.0
8.4
8.9
USD bn
25.0
203
160
20.0
200
172
150
15.0
31.0
101
10.0
3.4
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.8
2.8
19.0
19.3
100
17.2
16.2
15.0
5.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
2005
2006
2007
Completed Deals
Financial Crisis
50
5.2
0.0
Earthquake in Turkey
250
Forecast
2008
2009
2010
2011
Number of Deals
Source: Deloite, Annual Turkish M&A Review
Slide 6
Positioning in the Turkish Market
The Number 1 Investment Bank in Turkey
Mergermarket league tables
Mergermarket Turkey M&A League Table (2009 – 2012 YTD)
Rank House
M&A League
Table in
Turkey
Value (EUR M) Number of Deals
1
Raiffeisen Investment
6,497
16
2
JPM organ
6,341
8
3
Goldman Sachs
4,692
7
4
M organ Stanley
4,453
3
5
BBVA
4,200
1
6
Bank of America M errill Lynch
4,069
8
7
Credit Suisse
2,322
5
8
EFG Istanbul Equities
1,998
6
9
UBS Investment Bank
1,701
2
10
HSBC
1,680
6
11
JP M organ Cazenove
1,490
1
12
BNP Paribas
1,352
4
13
Deutsche Bank
1,171
1
14
Is Investment
1,050
19
15
Societe Generale
1,020
1
16
Standard Unlu
1,016
20
17
Rothschild
835
3
18
Rabobank
770
1
19
3 Seas Capital Partners
512
30
20
Citigroup
457
3
• Sale of Meram Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş. (Meram) to Cengiz as well as the privatization of Meram have not been included in Mergermarket’s 2009 league tables due to internal league
table regulations, e.g. privatization of Meram has been announced in 2008 and therefore only appears in their 2008 league tables
• Acquisition of Samsun Port by Ceynak not included in the rankings of Mergermarket due to internal regulations of Mergermarket
… Raiffeisen Investment managed to use its expertise in becoming the
leading financial advisor in the Turkish market...
Slide 7