Three Essays on Consumer Credit Card Behavior by Laura C. Ricaldi, MBA A Dissertation In PERSONAL FINANCIAL PLANNING Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved Sandra Huston Chair of Committee Michael Finke Vickie Hampton Elizabeth Sharp Jean Scott Mark Sheridan Dean of the Graduate School August 2015 Copyright 2015, Laura C. Ricaldi Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I want to acknowledge the generous support from my committee members: Dr. Sandra Huston, Dr. Michael Finke, Dr. Vickie Hampton, Dr. Elizabeth Sharp, and Dr. Jean Scott. Your guidance helped form my research skills and provided me with a great platform for future publications. A huge thank you to the other faculty and doctoral students for being great sources of advice, encouragement and inspiration. Thank you to Cynthia Cantu and Dawn Abbott for being a sounding board and helping me with all of the adventures as a student. I also want to thank my family for the continuous love and support through this entire process especially my husband, my beautiful children, my parents, my sister, my brother and my in-laws. Without your support I would not be where I am today. Thank you! ii Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... vi Publication Targets ...................................................................................................... viii References ....................................................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. xi I. FINANCIAL SOPHISTICATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CREDIT CARD DEBT PUZZLE .................................................................................................................. 1 Abstract ........................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2 Literature Review............................................................................................................ 3 Human Capital ............................................................................................................ 3 Mental Accounting and Framing ................................................................................ 5 Self-control ................................................................................................................. 6 Framework and Concepts ............................................................................................... 7 Method .......................................................................................................................... 10 Data and Sample ....................................................................................................... 10 Dependent Variable .................................................................................................. 10 Independent Variables .............................................................................................. 12 Analysis of Data ............................................................................................................ 18 Results ........................................................................................................................... 19 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................. 19 Results of Logistic Regression: All Revolvers Compared to Convenience Users ... 23 Results of Logistic Regression: Solvent Revolvers Compared to Insolvent Revolvers ................................................................................................................................... 26 Results of Logistic Regression: Solvent Revolvers Compared to Convenience Users ................................................................................................................................... 28 Summary and Implications ........................................................................................... 32 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 36 References ..................................................................................................................... 41 II. FINANCIAL LITERACY AND SHROUDED CREDIT CARD REWARDS ........... 44 iii Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 44 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 46 Literature Review.......................................................................................................... 48 Method .......................................................................................................................... 49 Data and Sample ....................................................................................................... 49 Model ........................................................................................................................ 50 Dependent Variable .................................................................................................. 51 Independent Variables .............................................................................................. 51 Analysis of Data ............................................................................................................ 54 Results ........................................................................................................................... 54 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................. 54 Results of Logistic Regression on Type of Reward Usage ....................................... 60 Summary and Implications ........................................................................................... 62 Appendix ....................................................................................................................... 65 References ..................................................................................................................... 66 III. DEBIT OR CREDIT: THE IMPACT OF MYOPIA AND CREDIT ATTITUDE ON PAYMENT CHOICE ....................................................................................................... 68 Abstract ......................................................................................................................... 68 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 69 Literature Review.......................................................................................................... 71 Myopia ...................................................................................................................... 71 Credit Attitude .......................................................................................................... 72 Human Capital .......................................................................................................... 73 Demographic Characteristics of Debit Card Users ................................................... 74 Framework and Concepts ............................................................................................. 75 Method .......................................................................................................................... 77 Data and Sample ....................................................................................................... 77 Model ........................................................................................................................ 78 Dependent Variable .................................................................................................. 78 Independent Variables .............................................................................................. 79 Analysis of Data ............................................................................................................ 84 Results ........................................................................................................................... 85 Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................. 85 iv Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to All Credit Card Users ......................................................................................................................... 87 Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users ................................................................................................................. 90 Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users ................................................................................................................. 92 Summary and Implications ........................................................................................... 95 Appendix I .................................................................................................................. 101 Principal Components Analysis and Factor Analysis ............................................. 101 Appendix II ................................................................................................................. 105 Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to All Credit Card Users ......... 105 Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users ................................................................................................................................. 106 Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users ................................................................................................................................. 107 Logistic Regression: Revolving Credit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users ............................................................................................................... 108 References ................................................................................................................... 110 v Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 ABSTRACT Credit card use and consumer debt has increased among American households in the past years. Gross and Souleles (2002) suggest that maintaining a high credit card balance is a behavioral issue rather than a liquidity issue. Behavioral biases can lead a household to make ineffective financial decisions regarding credit card use, investment decisions, and retirement savings. Households have many opportunities to make either effective or ineffective decisions regarding credit card use. Some examples of effective decisions when using consumer credit are using the card as a convenience tool, using rewards programs efficiently, and using credit cards to help build credit. Less effective consumer credit decisions include: revolving a balance, not using rewards programs, and paying expensive fees. These ineffective decisions can affect an individual’s credit score for many years and have negative consequences that will affect other financial decisions. With the growth of American credit balances, the credit card industry has developed products that require complex decisions. Financial decision-making has become exceedingly complex and requires a certain level of human capital to make effective financial decisions. Financial knowledge is key to making effective decisions, especially with consumer credit. A measurement of financial literacy can assist researchers with finding different effects of financial knowledge and the impact this knowledge has on decisionmaking. vi Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 According to Huston (2010), financial literacy refers to the household’s ability to understand and use financial information to make decisions. In order for households to be financially literate, they must demonstrate ability, knowledge and confidence when making financial decisions (Huston, 2010). Often, financial sophistication serves as a proxy for financial literacy. Financial sophistication refers to the household’s ability to apply knowledge and make complex financial decisions. Prior research shows that households with higher levels of financial literacy make better financial decisions. For example, Lusardi (2008) finds that those with lower levels of financial literacy tend to not participate in the stock market, fail to plan for retirement, and exhibit poor borrowing behavior. Thus, observing financial literacy and the impact on consumer decisions is relevant for financial planners, academics, and counselors. The data used for the dissertation includes two data sets. Both data sets are rich with detailed financial information on consumer credit use, financial assets and liabilities, and other financial information. The first data set is the Consumer Finances Monthly survey which includes a comprehensive measure for financial literacy. By using a comprehensive measure for financial literacy, the research evaluates the impact of financial literacy on household consumer credit decisions. The second data set is the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). Although the SCF includes detailed financial information, it does not include a specific financial literacy component. Huston, Finke and Smith (2012) conducted a factor analysis to create a proxy for financial sophistication in the SCF. The research uses this financial sophistication proxy in the first paper. vii Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 The first paper discusses the financial sophistication of households that display the credit card debt puzzle. Households that display this puzzling behavior are revolving households that hold enough liquid assets to pay off the balance, but choose not to. The study finds that financially sophisticated households are less likely to display the credit card debit puzzle. The second paper discusses the shrouded attributes associated with credit card rewards programs. It is hypothesized that naïve choice among credit card consumers may be explained by financial literacy. When household characteristics such as education, income and wealth are controlled, respondents in the highest financial literacy quintile were twice as likely to have a rewards card. These results imply that consumers with financial literacy deficiencies risk consumer credit product exploitation. The third paper discusses the choice between debit or credit use and the possible factors that impact the choice. These factors include myopia, credit attitude, the financial sophistication of the household, life-cycle factors, and finances. The study discovered that respondents who are myopic are typically using debit cards and revolving a credit card balance. The results imply that households that are myopic and have above average credit attitude should use debit cards to avoid the high costs of revolving a credit card. Publication Targets Essay One: Financial Sophistication and its Impact on the Credit Card Debt Puzzle Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning: The journal is a blind peerreviewed journal that is published bi-annually. The journal’s focus is to publish financial planning material as well as financial counseling techniques. The audience consists of viii Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 academics, financial counselors, practitioners, and others in the financial services industry. Essay Two: Financial Literacy and Shrouded Credit Card Rewards Journal of Financial Services Marketing: The journal focuses on financial marketing, personal finance, consumer finance, and other areas related to financial services. The journal is blind peer-reviewed and the goal of the journal is to keep up with the latest developments and research in financial services marketing. The audience consists of academics, practitioners and policy-makers in the financial services industry. Essay Three: Debit or Credit: The Impact of Myopia and Credit Attitude on Payment Choice Journal of Financial Therapy: The journal focuses on personal financial knowledge, attitudes and behaviors associated with family well-being. The journal is peer-reviewed and articles are written by financial therapists, financial planners, counselors, other practitioners and various academics. ix Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 References Gross, D. B. & Souleles, N. S. (2002). Do liquidity constraints and interest rates matter for consumer behavior? Evidence from credit card data. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 149-185. Huston, S. J. (2010). Measuring financial literacy. Journal of Consumer Affairs, 44, 296316. Huston, S. J., Finke, M. S., & Smith, H. (2012). A financial sophistication proxy for the Survey of Consumer Finances, Applied Economics Letters, 19:13, 1275-1278. Lusardi, A. (2008). Financial literacy: An essential tool for informed consumer choice? (No. w14084). National Bureau of Economic Research. x Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 LIST OF TABLES 1.1: Coding of Variables Used in the Study ..................................................................... 13 1.2: Descriptive Statistics for Credit Card Users. ............................................................. 20 1.3: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Revolving User Compared to a Convenience User in the 2010 SCF .................................................................................. 24 1.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being an Insolvent Revolving User Compared to a Solvent Revolving User in the 2010 SCF ................................................ 27 1.5: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Solvent Revolving User Compared to a Convenience User in the 2010 SCF ........................................................................... 30 1.6: Descriptive Statistics for the Top Quintile of Solvent Revolvers and Convenience Credit Card Users. ............................................................................................................. 37 1.7: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Top Quintile Solvent Revolver Compared to a Top Quintile Convenience User in the 2010 SCF .................................... 39 2.1: Descriptive Statistics for Convenience Credit Card Users ........................................ 55 2.2: T-Tests of Differences between Rewards users and Non-Rewards Users................. 57 2.3: Chi-square Analyses of the Differences in Characteristics of Households between Rewards Convenience Users and Non-Rewards Convenience Users............................... 59 2.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Rewards User Compared to a NonRewards User .................................................................................................................... 61 2.5: Financial Literacy Questionnaire from the Consumer Finances Monthly (CFM) Survey ............................................................................................................................... 65 3.1: Coding of Variables Used in the Study ..................................................................... 80 3.3: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to All Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 ........................................................... 88 3.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to a Revolving Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010 ........................................... 91 3.5: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to a Convenience Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010....................................... 94 3.6: Final Component Loading for Credit Attitude and Myopia .................................... 103 xi Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 3.7: Factor Loading ......................................................................................................... 103 3.8: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to All Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 ......................................................... 105 3.9: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 ....................................... 106 3.10: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 .................................. 107 3.11: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Revolving Credit Card User Compared to a Convenience Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010 ............ 108 3.12: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Revolving Credit Card User Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 ............. 109 xii Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 CHAPTER I FINANCIAL SOPHISTICATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CREDIT CARD DEBT PUZZLE Abstract The credit card debt puzzle is not well understood. Households exhibit inefficient behavior when they have sufficient liquid assets to pay off their credit card balance, but do not. Based on three logistic regression analyses of the 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances, the study discovered that households that display this behavior are more likely to have a lower financial sophistication than convenience users. In the current study, solvent revolvers are less likely to be over the age of 55, less likely to have a college degree, and less likely to be self-employed. Solvent revolvers are more likely to work part time, view credit as good, and have history of late payments and bankruptcy. There is a negative relationship with household income. These findings suggest financially sophisticated households are less likely to display irrational behavior regarding the credit card debt puzzle. Key words: Credit cards, revolving users, behavioral life-cycle hypothesis, financial sophistication, 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances 1 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Introduction Household credit card use has been widespread in recent years. Over 70% of U.S. households have a credit card (Bucks, Kennickell, Mach & Moore, 2009). There are two main groups of credit card users: those users who pay off their balance at the end of each month, commonly called convenience users, and those who carry a balance from month to month. These households that carry a balance from month to month are known as revolving credit card users (Kim & DeVaney, 2001). According to the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances, approximately 46% of families carry a balance on their credit cards. Since 2004, the median balance increased by 25% and the mean balance rose 30.4% (Bucks et al., 2009). Within the revolving credit card users, there is another group of users who have enough liquid assets to pay the balance of their credit cards but choose not to pay it off. Bi (2005) found that approximately 58% of revolving credit card users have liquid assets in excess of their credit card balance. These users are called solvent revolvers. Previous studies that have investigated this irrational behavior call this the credit card debt puzzle (Laibson, Repetto, & Tobacman, 2001; Haliassos & Reiter, 2005; Bertaut, Haliassos, & Reiter, 2009). Credit cards usually have high interest rates associated with revolving balances while liquid asset accounts, like checking and money market accounts, typically have low after-tax returns. Given this information, it is inefficient for a household to maintain a revolving balance. 2 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 The purpose of this study is to look at the impact of financial sophistication on solvent revolving credit card users and the behavioral factors that affect the decision to be a solvent revolver. Behavioral life cycle theory suggests a household is composed of two dueling selves, the planner and the doer. The planner is the forward-thinking, rational self while the doer is myopic and focused on current consumption (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988). The household makes decisions to satisfy both the planner and doer and may display conflicting and inefficient behaviors, such as the credit card debt puzzle. Literature Review Several studies attempted to explain the credit card debt puzzle, or solvent revolving credit card use, with a number of different factors. Gross and Souleles (2002) found that high credit card balances stem from a person’s behavior, not liquidity problems. Behavioral factors in the planner/doer model include human capital, mental accounting/precautionary savings motives, and self-control and time management constraints. Human Capital The planner/doer model suggests the planner will reduce consumption in the current period by exerting a level of willpower. Since willpower is costly, the planner will resort to other techniques to reduce the consumption of the doer. Some of these techniques include mental accounting and rule setting (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988). In the planner/doer model, the level of human capital can impact financial decisions. Becker (1964) described human capital as an individual’s stock of knowledge, health, skills or values. It is a function of goods, services, time and the individual’s current stock of 3 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 human capital. Human capital is often improved through learning, maturity and experiences. Human capital is also broken down into two categories: general and specific. Individuals can improve their general human capital by obtaining a college education or having life experiences that provide knowledge about future decisionmaking. In the realm of finance, individuals can improve their specific human capital by taking financial courses to improve their ability to understand and make effective financial decisions. Individuals can also improve their financial specific human capital through experiences like using credit cards or taking out a home mortgage. Households with a high level of financial knowledge and experience are considered financially literate or sophisticated; these households are able to make more effective financial decisions than the households with a lower level of financial literacy or sophistication. Financial sophistication gives the household the potential to improve their ability to make better financial decisions. The households with a higher level of financial sophistication tend to be aware of the consequences of their decisions. Bertaut, Haliassos, and Reiter (2009) suggested that financially sophisticated households would be convenience users of credit cards as well as benefit from floating and other advantages of credit cards. Although, some financially sophisticated households display characteristics that are not sophisticated. For example, Haliassos and Reiter (2005) found that in the shopper/accountant model, the shopper is not fully financially sophisticated. The accountant/shopper model is similar to the planner/doer model. 4 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Mental Accounting and Framing In order to control the doer, the planner creates mental accounts to reduce the temptation to spend from them. Households divide assets, expenditures and income into different categories or mental accounts. An economist would state that these accounts are substitutable, but in reality, they are not (Thaler, 1999). The household views the mental accounts, either assets or expenses, as different things and marginal propensity to consume from these accounts are different. For example, households save money in an emergency fund account to prepare for an uncertain event. The household uses framing to earmark these accounts for difference purposes. Households that save in liquid accounts for emergencies or unexpected events do not believe the assets are substitutable for other assets or expenses. When households use mental accounting for expenses, especially with credit cards, they decouple the payment from the consumption. Once the bill is received, the purchase is mixed with other purchases. Thaler (1999) stated that it is hard for the consumer to attribute the balance to any particular purchase; therefore the consumer carries a balance from month to month. Since households have mental accounts, they will not view accounts used for savings as available to pay off credit card balances since these accounts are not substitutable. Households will also hold assets in different physical bank accounts since they view these assets as non-fungible. Uncertainty and precautionary savings motives play a role in mental accounting. Telyukova and Wright (2008) proposed that households would stay solvent revolvers to maintain sufficient liquid assets for uncertain future events. Bi and Hanna (2006) found 5 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 that households will display the credit card debt puzzle when precautionary savings motives are present. Self-control Although the planner creates mental accounts to control the doer, the individual must exhibit self-control. An individual displays self-control issues by either postponing action (e.g., procrastination) or by consuming immediately (e.g., no willpower to wait). Households that display self-control issues either consume all of their resources without saving or paying debt, or put off making critical decisions. One study showed that in an accountant/shopper household, the accountant would choose not to pay off the credit card balance in order to impose control over the shopper (Bertaut, Haliassos, & Reiter, 2009). By reducing the available limit on the credit card, the shopper is unable to consume more. Other studies have identified other behavioral factors that affect solvent revolving credit card use. Credit attitude and bankruptcy history are often considered when households exhibit the credit card debt puzzle. First, Chien and DeVaney (2001) found that a positive credit attitude was related to a higher credit card balance. Rutherford and DeVaney (2009) found that those households that had a positive attitude toward credit are less likely to be convenience users. Next, bankruptcy history has also been shown to be a factor for the credit card debt puzzle. Lehnert and Maki (2007) evaluated the bankruptcy exemption levels for each state. They found a higher prevalence of solvent revolvers in the states that had a higher level of exemption. One possible theory was that households will run up credit card debt and keep the liquid assets to transfer them into assets that are exempt when filing for bankruptcy. 6 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Framework and Concepts Other studies evaluate how the credit card debt puzzle and the relevant behavioral factors are related. To find how behavioral factors, like financial sophistication, will influence the likelihood of being a solvent revolver, this study uses a combination of the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis and human capital theory. Like the life-cycle hypothesis, the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988) suggests that in order to maximize utility, a household will shift resources in periods where the marginal utility of consumption is relatively low to periods where the marginal utility of consumption is relatively high. A good example of this is when households save during the working years for consumption during retirement years. Unlike the traditional life-cycle hypothesis, the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis posits that households have a dual preference framework where they are both planners (longterm) and doers (short-term). The planner preference is when households make rational decisions regarding when to shift resources to maximize utility. The planner focuses on long-term decisions to maximize utility. The doer preference, or short-term preference, is when households succumb to temptation to consume in the current period. The three behavioral factors, self-control, mental accounting, and framing, are what make the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis different from other life-cycle models. Self-control refers to the household’s temptation to make immediate consumption decisions, rather than saving for future consumption. For the doer, immediate consumption is always a tempting alternative to future consumption. There is discomfort for the doer associated with postponing current consumption; therefore, the planner will 7 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 enforce saving devices and rules of thumb to deal with self-control issues for various situations. These are types of external rules that households use to plan for future consumption. Households also use internal rules, like refusing to borrow for current consumption, to maintain self-control. Mental accounting refers to placing wealth into different non-substitutable accounts. The typical breakdown of mental accounts is current income, current assets, and future income (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988). Households use mental accounting to restrict the doer from bringing future resources into the current period. The way a household frames the different mental accounts determines the temptation to spend from each account. Each account has a different level of temptation associated with spending from it. The marginal propensity to consume from the current income account is much higher than the marginal propensity to consume from the future income account. Temptation plays an important role in the household’s decision to spend or save. By carrying a credit card balance, the doer is bringing consumption into the current period. The households that are solvent (i.e., households who have enough liquid assets to pay off their balance but do not) are not displaying the planner behavior, but are displaying the doer behavior. In contrast, convenience users are keeping future resources in future periods by paying off the balance while still benefiting from the advantages of using a credit card. In addition to the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis, human capital theory also plays a part in solvent revolving credit card use. Human capital is an individual’s knowledge, health, skills or values and is often described as a function of goods, services, 8 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 time and the individual’s current stock of human capital. A household’s level of human capital impacts its ability to make efficient financial decisions. Households with a higher level of financial human capital (i.e., financial sophistication) have the potential to improve the ability to make effective and efficient financial decisions. Based on the theoretical framework, the concepts developed for this paper include human capital, mental accounting/precautionary savings motives, time constraint/selfcontrol factors, and other control factors. Solvent revolving credit card use is a function of these four concepts. The concepts serve as control factors to help explain why households display puzzling behavior that is inefficient. Based on this model and the four concepts, several hypotheses are developed. Hypothesis 1: Solvent credit card revolvers will have a lower level of human capital. o Solvent credit card revolvers will be less financially sophisticated than convenience users. o Solvent credit card revolvers will have less education than convenience users. Hypothesis 2: Solvent credit card revolvers will be more likely to display mental accounting behaviors and have higher precautionary savings motives. Hypothesis 3: Solvent credit card revolvers will be more likely to experience time constraint/self-control factors. Time constrained 9 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 households will be younger, have more children, work more hours per week, and be less likely to pay their bills on time. Method Data and Sample The data used were from the 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial survey, which is sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board and collected by the National Organization for Research at the University of Chicago. The SCF collects detailed information on the finances of U.S. households. The 2010 SCF included 6,492 households in the public data set. Since this study only analyzes those households that have a credit card, the sample is limited to 4,433 observations. The 2010 SCF contains five implicates to deal with missing and incomplete data; only the first implicate was used in this study. Dependent Variable The dependent variable was constructed by categorizing credit card users into one of three categories. See Table 1.1 for the measurement of the dependent variable. 1. Solvent credit card users. These users have liquid assets greater than or equal to the balance still owed on their main credit card after the last payment was made to the account. The total liquid assets is derived from the Federal Reserve Board definition in the net worth code. 10 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 2. Insolvent credit card users. These users have liquid assets less than the balance still owed on their main credit card after the last payment was made to the account. 3. Convenience credit card users. These users do not have an outstanding balance on their main credit card. Three logistic regressions were run to establish if there are differences between several combinations of the dependent variable groups. For the first regression, the dependent variable was coded as 1 if the household is a revolving credit card user and 0 if the household is a convenience user. This regression was run to compare the differences between all revolvers and convenience users of credit cards. It is important to distinguish the difference between the two general groups of credit card users before breaking down the revolving group into a specific type of revolvers. After comparing the general groups of credit card users, it is important to evaluate the differences between the two specific types of revolving credit card users. For the second logistic regression, the dependent variable was coded as 1 if the household is a solvent revolving user and 0 if the household is an insolvent revolving user. For the third logistic regression, the dependent variable was coded as 1 if the household is a solvent revolving user and 0 if the household is a convenience user. This regression was run because the solvent revolving user has the ability to be a convenience user, but chooses not to pay off the debt. It is important to establish the differences between these two groups to explain why households remain solvent revolvers. 11 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Independent Variables Based on the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis and human capital theory, four concepts were identified: human capital, mental accounting/precautionary savings motives, time constraint/self-control factors, and other control factors. Independent variables operationalized these concepts. The measurement of the independent variables is presented in Table 1.1. 12 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.1: Coding of Variables Used in the Study Variable Dependent Variables Solvent Revolver Insolvent Revolver Convenience User Independent Variables Human Capital Financial Sophistication (X3913, X3014, X414, X6525) Quintile 1(most sophisticated) (reference group) Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) Education (X5901, X5902, X5904) Less than high school High school graduate (reference group) Some college College degree Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies (X3006, X3007, X7513, X6514, X7515, X6848, X7187) Saving for Unemployment (X3006, X3007, X7513, X6514, X7515, X6848, X7364, X7586) Saving for Illness (X3006, X3007, X7513, X6514, X7515, X6848, X6030, X6124) Ability to borrow from friends/relatives (X6443) Self Employed (X4106, X4706) Number of Liquid accounts (X3504, X3728) Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of children (X108, X114, X120, X126, X132, X202, X208, X214, X220) Payment History (X3004) On time/No payment (reference group) Behind Number of hours worked in a week (X4110) Not working (reference group) Working less than full time (1 to 39 hours) Working full time (≤40 hours) Credit attitude (X401) Positive Ambivalent (reference group) Negative Bankruptcy history (X6772) Lifecycle Factors Age (X14) Under 35 (reference group) 35 to 55 Over 55 Gender (X8021) Male (reference group) Female Marital Status (X7372) Married (reference group) Not married Income/$10,000 (X5729) Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. 13 Measurement 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Continuous Continuous 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Continuous Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human Capital The human capital concept explains the household’s potential to make effective decisions. Households that do not have a strong base in financial human capital (i.e., financial sophistication) tend to make suboptimal financial decisions (Bertaut, Haliassos, & Reiter 2009). Since the purpose of this study is to evaluate the financial sophistication of solvent revolvers, this concept is the main focus. The human capital concept was measured by two independent variables, financial sophistication and education. Financial sophistication represents a specific type of human capital while education represents a general type of human capital. The variables that make up this concept represent why the household makes suboptimal decisions and does not pay off their credit card balance even though the household has the resources to do so. Huston, Finke and Smith (2012) developed a financial sophistication score based on a factor analysis of the Survey of Consumer Finances. The score includes four variables: stock ownership (within or outside of tax sheltered accounts), willingness to accept at least some investment risk, not revolving more than 50% of credit card limit, and the level of understanding of personal finance. The indirect measure of financial sophistication is based on observed and self-reported behavioral variables instead of directly measured financial literacy. A direct measure of financial knowledge, ability and confidence is more effective at determining financial sophistication, but the SCF does not contain such variables. The score is broken into five quintiles to see the magnitude between the groups of credit card users. Quintile 1 is the most sophisticated while Quintile 5 is the least 14 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 sophisticated. The most sophisticated quintile (#1) was omitted for the regression analyses as the reference group. The second variable included in the human capital concept is the level of education for the head of household. Education represents a general type of human capital. The level of education was categorized as: less than high school, high school degree, some college, and college degree. The high school degree variable was the reference group for the regression analyses. Mental Accounting The mental accounting concept relates to how the planner controls the doer’s consumption by using various mental accounts. Past literature shows that households maintain solvent revolving due to mental accounting and the framing of the different accounts. With the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis, households do not view mental accounts as substitutable. Households do not tend to use emergency savings accounts to pay credit card balances if they are not in an emergency situation. The variables that make up this concept represent why the household will maintain liquid assets in excess of their credit card balance and maintain their status as a solvent revolver. Mental accounting was measured by six independent variables. The first variable, saving for emergencies, was constructed by combining two variables: if the household indicated they had a savings motive for emergencies or other unexpected needs and if they stated a positive amount for a subjective emergency fund. The variable was coded as 1 if the household had a motive to save for emergencies and 0 otherwise. The second variable, saving for unemployment, was also constructed by combining two variables: if 15 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 the household stated they had a savings motive for unemployment and if they expect their future income will decrease in comparison with prices in the next year. The variable was coded as 1 if the household had a motive to save for unemployment and 0 otherwise. The third variable, saving for illness, was constructed by combining two variables: if the household stated they had a savings motive for in case of illness or future medical expenses and if they have a poor health status. The variable was coded as 1 if the household had a motive to save for illness and 0 otherwise. The fourth variable is the household’s ability to borrow $3,000 from friends or relatives in an emergency. The variable was coded as 1 if the household was able to borrow and 0 if the household was not able to borrow from friends or relatives. The fifth variable is if either the head of household or the spouse is self-employed. The variable was coded as 1 if self-employed and 0 if not self-employed. The last variable is the number of liquid accounts a household owns. This variable is a summation of the number of checking accounts and the number of savings/money market accounts owned by the household. The number of liquid accounts is coded as a continuous variable. Time Constraint/Self-control Factors The time constraint/self-control concept is included since households have limited time to make financial decisions. Households also display self-control issues regarding financial decision making. Self-control plays a role in the household’s susceptibility to give in to temptation to spend/consume during the current period. Households also put off making complex financial decisions. Time-constrained households will procrastinate paying off the balance on their credit cards. The variables that make up this concept 16 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 represent the time constraints a household encounters that retain the household’s status as a solvent revolver. The time constraint/self-control concept was comprised of number of children, past payment history, number of hours worked per week, bankruptcy history, and credit attitude. First, having children reduces the amount of time an individual has to devote to making financial decisions. The number of children was a coded as a continuous variable. The second variable is the past payment history of all loans, mortgages and credit cards made during the past year. The variable was coded as 1 for those households who made payments on schedule or had no payments and 0 for those who were behind or missed payments. The on time/no payments category was the reference group for the regression analyses. The third variable for this concept is the number of hours worked in a week. The variable was coded as a categorical variable with 0 hours as not working, 1 to 39 hours a week as working less than full time, and greater than or equal to 40 hours per week as working full time. The reference group is the not working category. Past literature shows that a household maintains solvent revolving due to credit attitude and bankruptcy history. The household’s credit attitude was measured by their feelings about using credit. The variable was coded as positive if the household feels credit is a good idea, ambivalent if the household feels credit is good in some ways and bad in others, and negative if they feel credit is a bad idea. The ambivalent credit attitude group was the reference group for the regression analyses. Last, bankruptcy history was coded 1 if the household has ever filed for bankruptcy, or 0 if they have never filed for bankruptcy. 17 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Lifecycle Factors The lifecycle factors concept is included since households make decisions based on being in different stages of the lifecycle. The variables that make up this concept represent why the household will maintain liquid assets in excess of their credit card balance and maintain their status as a solvent revolver. The concept was measured using age, gender, marital status, and income. First, age was coded categorically as under 35, between 35 and 55, and over 55. The age category over 55 is the reference group for the regression analyses. Next, gender and marital status are included in the analysis. Gender is coded as male or female and male is the reference category for the regression analyses. Marital status is coded as married or not married. The married category is the reference group. Last, household income is a continuous variable. Income is scaled by $10,000 to see the magnitude and its effect in each of the regressions. Analysis of Data Descriptive statistics were conducted to look at the characteristics of households. To generalize the findings back to the U.S. population, the descriptive statistics were weighted using a weight variable provided by the Federal Reserve (Lindamood, Hanna & Bi, 2007). Since the dependent variables are binary, logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of the dependent variable occurring given the set of independent variables. The regression analyses were not weighted (Lindamood, Hanna & Bi, 2007). 18 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Results Descriptive Statistics Since the descriptive statistics are weighted, the reported percentages, means, and standard errors represent all U.S. households. See Table 1.2 for a summary of the descriptive statistics. 19 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.2: Descriptive Statistics for Credit Card Users. Population Percent Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) Education Less than high school High school graduate Some college College degree Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies Saving for Unemployment Saving for Illness Ability to borrow from friends/relatives Self Employed Number of liquid accounts Insolvent Revolver n=985 27.43 Solvent Revolver n=949 25.06 Convenience User n=2,499 47.51 8.46 11.02 25.46 29.11 25.95 18.92 18.53 19.76 21.5 21.29 27.16 26.01 16.97 13.95 15.92 8.64 31.12 20.11 40.13 6.42 27.68 23.1 42.8 4.71 24.41 14.87 56.02 40.04 3.63 3.78 37.12 15.69 0.4889 (0.0159) 38.38 3.77 3.9 28.04 15.71 0.7327 (0.0144) 36.21 3.13 5.86 20.76 17.38 0.6958 (0.0092) 1.0145 (0.0390) 0.8543 (0.0378) 0.6038 (0.0201) 70.86 29.14 85.51 14.49 96.56 3.44 21.02 15.18 63.8 21.53 14.52 63.95 36.32 10.97 52.71 24.47 43.88 31.65 19.53 25.77 45.93 28.31 11.85 21.67 44.65 33.68 4.52 19.95 52.21 27.84 20.79 45.5 33.71 14.21 32.19 53.6 75.59 24.41 79.43 20.57 78.4 21.6 Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of Children Payment History On time/ No payment Behind Number of hours worked in a week Not working Working less than full time (1 to 39 hrs) Working full time (≤40 hrs) Credit attitude Positive Ambivalent Negative Bankruptcy history Lifecycle Factors Age Under 35 35 to 55 Over 55 Gender Male Female Marital Status Married Not married 56.55 59.14 61.88 43.45 40.86 38.12 $64,990.41 $77,964.79 $129,897.18 Income (1,731.65) (2,892.96) (9,590.03) Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from weighted analysis of one implicate. (Mean (standard error) for continuous variables; column percents for categorical variables) (n=4,433) 20 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Insolvent Revolvers Overall 27.43% of the sample are considered insolvent revolvers. About 20% of the respondents are in the top two quintiles of financial sophistication, with 8.46% in the top (most literate) quintile and 11.02% in the second quintile. About half of the respondents have a high school education, and about 40% have a college degree. About 40% of the respondents have a precautionary savings motive for emergencies, about 4% have a savings motive for unemployment, and about 4% have a savings motive for illness. About 37% are able to borrow from friends and relatives during an emergency and 15.69% of the respondents are self-employed. The average number of liquid accounts is 0.4889. The average number of children is 1.0145. About 70% of the respondents reported paying their bills on time or do not have payments. The majority of households (63.80%) work full time. Approximately one quarter of the respondents report a positive attitude toward credit (24.47%), about 44% report an ambivalent attitude toward credit, and 31.65% of respondents report a negative attitude toward credit. About 19.5% of the respondents report filing for bankruptcy. Approximately half of the respondents (52.21%) are between the age of 35 and 55. The majority of the respondents are male (75.59%) and more than half (56.55%) are married. The average income for insolvent revolvers was $64,990. Solvent Revolvers Overall 21.41% of the sample are considered solvent revolvers. About 18% of the respondents are in each of the top two quintiles of financial sophistication. Over 50% of the respondents have a high school education, and about 42% have a college degree. More than one third (38.38%) of the respondents have a precautionary savings motive for 21 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 emergencies, about 4% have a savings motive for unemployment, and about 4% have a savings motive for illness. About 28% are able to borrow from friends and relatives during an emergency and 15.71% of the respondents are self-employed. The average number of liquid accounts is 0.7327. The average number of children reported is 0.8543 per household. The majority (85.51%) of the respondents report paying their bills on time or do not have payments. The majority of the households (63.95%) work full time. Approximately one quarter of the respondents report a positive attitude toward credit (25.77%), about 45% report an ambivalent attitude toward credit, and 28.31% of respondents report a negative attitude toward credit. About 11.85% of the respondents report filing for bankruptcy. Approximately half of the respondents (45.50%) are between the age of 35 and 55. The majority of the respondents are male (79.43%) and more than half (59.14%) are married. The average income for solvent revolvers was $77,965. Convenience Users Overall 47.51% of the sample is considered convenience users. About 53% of the respondents are in the top two quintiles of financial sophistication, with 27.16% in the top (most literate) quintile and 26.01% in the second quintile. The majority of the respondents have a college degree (56.02%). More than 36% of the respondents have a precautionary savings motive for emergencies, about 3% have a savings motive for unemployment, and about 6% have a savings motive for illness. About 21% are able to borrow from friends and relatives during an emergency and 17.38% of the respondents are self-employed. The average number of liquid accounts is 0.6958. The average number of children in the household is 0.6038. The vast majority (96.56%) of the 22 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 respondents report paying their bills on time or do not have payments. About half (52.71%) of the households work full time with about 36% working less than full time. Approximately 22% of the respondents report a positive attitude toward credit, about 44% report an ambivalent attitude toward credit, and 33.68% of respondents report a negative attitude toward credit. About 4.5% of the respondents report filing for bankruptcy. Approximately one third of the respondents (32.19%) are between the age of 35 and 55 with over 50% over age 55. The majority of the respondents are male (78.4%) and more than half (61.88%) are married. The average income for convenience users was $129,897. Results of Logistic Regression: All Revolvers Compared to Convenience Users The results for the logistic regression to compare all revolvers to convenience users of credit cards are presented in Table 1.3. Odds ratios compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. This regression distinguishes the difference between the two general groups of credit card users before breaking down the revolving group into a specific type of revolvers. 23 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.3: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Revolving User Compared to a Convenience User in the 2010 SCF Parameter Estimate -0.8003 p Intercept <0.0001 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 2 0.0676 0.5328 Quintile 3 0.9527 <0.0001 Quintile 4 1.0287 <0.0001 Quintile 5 1.0129 <0.0001 Education Less than high school 0.2995 0.1055 Some college 0.0269 0.8166 College degree -0.2936 0.0018 Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies 0.1034 0.1712 Saving for Unemployment -0.034 0.8671 Saving for Illness -0.2549 0.1553 Ability to borrow from friends/relatives 0.3112 0.0004 Self Employed -0.3901 <0.0001 Number of Liquid Accounts -0.2394 0.0024 Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of children 0.0886 0.0168 Payment History Behind 1.5356 <0.0001 Number of hours worked in a week Working less than full time (1-39 hrs) 0.8278 <0.0001 Working full time (≤40 hrs) 0.7772 <0.0001 Credit attitude Positive 0.0744 0.4158 Negative -0.2794 0.0011 Bankruptcy history 1.0511 <0.0001 Lifecycle Factors Age 35 to 55 0.0827 0.465 Over 55 -0.5555 <0.0001 Gender Female -0.0902 0.4626 Marital Status Not married 0.0755 0.472 Income/$10,000 -0.0182 <0.0001 Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from an unweighted analysis of one implicate. Bolded values are significant at the 0.05 level. 24 Odds Ratio 1.07 2.593 2.797 2.753 1.349 1.027 0.746 1.109 0.967 0.775 1.365 0.677 0.787 1.093 4.644 2.288 2.175 1.077 0.756 2.861 1.086 0.574 0.914 1.078 0.982 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human Capital Most of the human capital variables are significantly related to the likelihood of being a revolving user. Compared to the group with the highest financial sophistication, those in quintile 3 are 159.3% more likely to be revolvers, those in quintile 4 are 179.7% more likely to be revolvers, and those in the least sophisticated quintile (quintile 5) are 175.3% more likely to be revolvers. Compared to the high school graduates group, those who have a college degree are 25.4% less likely to be revolving users of credit. Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives The variables that had significance are the household’s ability to borrow from friends/relatives, the household’s self-employment status, and the number of liquid accounts. The households that are able to borrow from friends/relatives are 36.5% more likely to be revolving credit card users. The households that are self-employed are 32.3% less likely to be revolving credit card users. For every one unit increase in liquid accounts the household is 21.3% less likely to be a revolving credit card user. Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Several of the variables in this concept are significantly related to the likelihood of a household being a revolver. With every one unit increase in the number of children, the household is 9.3% more likely to be a revolving credit card user. The households that have been behind on payments are 364.4% more likely to be revolving users of credit cards. Compared to those households that do not work, the households that work less than full time are 128.8% more likely to be revolvers and those households that work full time or more are 117.5% more likely to be revolvers. Compared to the group who viewed credit as ambivalent, the respondents who view credit with a negative attitude are 25 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 24.4% less likely to be revolving users. The households who reported filing for bankruptcy in the past are 186.1% more likely to be revolving users. Lifecycle Factors Two of the lifecycle variables are significantly related to the likelihood of being a revolving user of credit. Compared to those respondents under 35, the respondents over age 55 are 42.6% less likely to be revolving users. For every $10,000 increase in income, households are 1.8% less likely to be revolving users of credit cards. Results of Logistic Regression: Solvent Revolvers Compared to Insolvent Revolvers The results for the logistic regression for solvent revolvers compared to insolvent revolvers of credit cards are presented in Table 1.4. Odds ratios compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. After comparing the general groups of credit card users, it is important to evaluate the differences between the two specific types of revolving credit card users, solvent and insolvent revolvers. 26 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being an Insolvent Revolving User Compared to a Solvent Revolving User in the 2010 SCF Parameter Estimate -0.289 p Odds Ratio Intercept 0.2934 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 2 0.2615 0.1622 1.299 Quintile 3 0.9941 <0.0001 2.702 Quintile 4 0.8725 <0.0001 2.393 Quintile 5 0.7755 <0.0001 2.172 Education Less than high school -0.00628 0.9767 0.994 Some college -0.2665 0.0633 0.766 College degree 0.0784 0.5282 1.082 Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies 0.0997 0.3288 1.105 Saving for Unemployment -0.2436 0.3396 0.784 Saving for Illness -0.3769 0.1424 0.686 Ability to borrow from friends/relatives 0.0317 0.7755 1.032 Self Employed -0.1251 0.347 0.882 Number of Liquid Accounts -1.0123 <0.0001 0.363 Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of children 0.0668 0.1451 1.069 Payment History Behind 0.7566 <0.0001 2.131 Number of hours worked in a week Working less than full time (1-39 hrs) 0.0903 0.6176 1.094 Working full time (≤40 hrs) 0.1702 0.2526 1.186 Credit attitude Positive -0.0191 0.8765 0.981 Negative 0.0814 0.4886 1.085 Bankruptcy history 0.554 0.0001 1.74 Lifecycle Factors Age 35 to 55 0.1425 0.3014 1.153 Over 55 -0.1162 0.474 0.89 Gender Female 0.3046 0.0521 1.356 Marital Status Not married -0.2365 0.0841 0.789 Income/$10,000 -0.0179 0.0056 0.982 Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from an unweighted analysis of one implicate. Bolded values are significant at the 0.05 level. 27 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human Capital Only the financial sophistication quintiles are significantly related to the likelihood of being an insolvent revolver. Compared to the group with the highest financial sophistication, those in quintile 3 are 170.2% more likely to be insolvent revolvers, those in quintile 4 are 139.3% more likely to be insolvent revolvers, and those in the least sophisticated quintile (quintile 5) are 117.2% more likely to be insolvent revolvers. Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives The number of liquid accounts is the only significant variable. For every one unit increase in liquid accounts the household was 63.7% less likely to be insolvent revolvers. Time Constraint/Self-control Factors A household being behind on payments and having a bankruptcy history are the only variables that are significantly related to being an insolvent revolving user of credit. Those households that made late payments are 113.1% more likely to be insolvent revolvers. The households that reported a bankruptcy are 74% more likely to be insolvent revolvers. Lifecycle Factors Income was the only variable significantly related to the likelihood of being a solvent revolver of credit. For every $10,000 increase in income, households were 1.8% less likely to be an insolvent revolving user of credit cards. Results of Logistic Regression: Solvent Revolvers Compared to Convenience Users The results for the logistic regression for solvent revolving users of credit cards compared to convenience users are presented in Table 1.5. Odds ratios compare the 28 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. Since the solvent revolver has the ability to be a convenience user, it is important to distinguish the differences between the two groups and explain why households remain solvent revolvers. 29 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.5: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Solvent Revolving User Compared to a Convenience User in the 2010 SCF Parameter Estimate -1.4273 p Intercept <0.0001 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 2 -0.0157 0.8981 Quintile 3 0.537 <0.0001 Quintile 4 0.6804 <0.0001 Quintile 5 0.6841 <0.0001 Education Less than high school 0.2724 0.2089 Some college 0.082 0.537 College degree -0.3756 0.0008 Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies 0.0893 0.3116 Saving for Unemployment 0.102 0.6529 Saving for Illness -0.0711 0.732 Ability to borrow from friends/relatives 0.2524 0.014 Self Employed -0.3505 0.0013 Number of Liquid Accounts 0.2476 0.0106 Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of children 0.0363 0.4035 Payment History Behind 1.173 <0.0001 Number of hours worked in a week Working less than full time (1-39 hrs) 0.7983 <0.0001 Working full time (≤40 hrs) 0.7345 <0.0001 Credit attitude Positive 0.0853 0.418 Negative -0.3013 0.0029 Bankruptcy history 0.7006 <0.0001 Lifecycle Factors Age 35 to 55 0.0184 0.8883 Over 55 -0.4867 0.0008 Gender Female -0.1949 0.1788 Marital Status Not married 0.1607 0.1836 Income/$10,000 -0.0128 <0.0001 Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from an unweighted analysis of one implicate. Bolded values are significant at the 0.05 level. 30 Odds Ratio 0.984 1.711 1.975 1.982 1.313 1.085 0.687 1.093 1.107 0.931 1.287 0.704 1.281 1.037 3.232 2.222 2.085 1.089 0.74 2.015 1.019 0.615 0.823 1.174 0.987 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human Capital Many of the human capital variables are significantly related to the likelihood of being a solvent revolver user of credit cards. Compared to the group with the highest financial sophistication, those in quintile 3 are 71.1% more likely to be solvent revolvers, those in quintile 4 are 97.5% more likely to be solvent revolvers, and those in quintile 5 are 98.2% more likely to be solvent revolvers. Compared to the high school graduate group, those who have a college degree are 31.3% less likely to be solvent revolvers of credit cards. Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Three variables have significance: the household’s ability to borrow from friends/relatives, if the household is self-employed, and the number of liquid accounts. The households that are able to borrow from friends/relatives are 28.7% more likely to be solvent revolvers. The self-employed household is 29.6% less likely to be solvent revolver. For every one unit increase in the number of liquid accounts, the household is 28.1% more likely to be a solvent revolver. Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Many of the variables in this concept are significantly related to likelihood of being a solvent revolver. Those who have reported being behind on their past payments are 223.2% more likely to be solvent credit card revolvers. The number of hours worked per week is also significant. Compared to households that do not work, the households who work less than full time are 122.2% more likely to be solvent revolvers and those who work full time or more are 108.5% more likely to be solvent revolvers. Compared to those who view credit as ambivalent, the respondents who view credit as negative are 31 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 26.0% less likely to be solvent revolvers. The households who reported filing for bankruptcy in the past are 101.5% more likely to be solvent revolvers. Lifecycle Factors Two of the lifecycle variables are significantly related to the likelihood of being solvent credit card revolvers. Compared to those respondents under age 35, the respondents over age 55 are 38.5% less likely to be solvent revolvers. For every $10,000 increase in income, households are 1.3% less likely to be solvent revolvers. Summary and Implications The research investigates the differences in behavioral characteristics of solvent revolving users of credit cards and the effect of financial sophistication on credit card behavior. There is still much research that needs to be done on the credit card debit puzzle. The purpose of this study is to evaluate solvent revolving credit card users and their financial sophistication compared to insolvent revolvers and convenience users of credit cards. Based on the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis and human capital theory, the results provide an extension of the current literature. Human capital plays a role in the decision to display the credit card debt puzzle. Regarding specific financial human capital, solvent credit card revolvers have a lower level of financial sophistication than convenience users. In addition, solvent revolvers are more financially sophisticated than insolvent revolving users. This finding supports previous literature that solvent revolvers are not financially sophisticated (Hailassos & Reiter, 2005; Bertaut, Haliassos, & Reiter, 2009). In regard to general human capital, solvent credit card users are less likely to have college degrees compared to convenience 32 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 users. Households should seek as much financial knowledge as possible or invest in the assistance from a financial planner or counselor when making critical financial decisions. Uncertainty and mental accounting does not seem to have a large impact on households that exhibit solvent revolving. Hypothesis 2 suggests that solvent revolvers would be more likely to display mental accounting and have higher precautionary savings motives. Contrary to other studies however, there is no significant support for this hypothesis (Bi & Hanna, 2006; Telyukova & Wright, 2008). Self-employed households are less likely to be revolvers in general and less likely to be solvent revolvers. This finding suggests that households that are self-employed use credit cards for convenience purposes. Last, with every one unit increase in liquid accounts, households are more likely to be solvent revolvers. This finding suggests that households that save liquid assets in different accounts will choose not to pay off their credit card balance with those earmarked funds. Those who use mental accounting to control the doer will have more liquid accounts compared to convenience users who have the self-control to not spend now. The findings significantly support time constraint factors and the likelihood of being a solvent revolver. Hypothesis 3 suggests that solvent revolvers would be more likely to have more children, be less likely to pay their bills on time, work more hours during the week, have a positive attitude toward credit, and have filed for bankruptcy in the past. First, when compared with those who are on time with their loan payments, the households that are behind are five times more likely to be solvent revolvers. Also, the number of hours worked per week, both less than full time and full time, is significantly 33 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 related to a household being a solvent revolver. These time constraint factors suggest that as a household becomes busier, the more likely it is to not use liquid assets to pay off the credit card balance, thus maintaining the status as a solvent revolver. Next, a household’s self-control variables play a role in solvent revolving. Households that have a positive attitude toward credit and have a history of bankruptcy are more likely to be solvent revolvers. Financial planners, counselors, and educators should help households understand how a positive attitude toward credit can negatively impact financial decisions. A change in behavior is necessary, especially since revolving credit card users believe it is okay to spend now and pay later. Since time constraint and self-control factors have such an impact on solvent revolving tendencies, financial planners, counselors and educators should help clients identify debt management issues as well as increase their awareness of the importance of making payments on time. The client would benefit from a change in behavior to maximize utility and avoid making inefficient decisions. In regards to the lifecycle factors, solvent revolvers are more likely to be younger and have a lower household income. First, when compared to households under age 35, those households over age 55 are less likely to be solvent revolvers. Last, with every increase of income by $10,000 the likelihood of being a solvent revolver decreases by only 1.3%. This finding suggests that solvent revolving credit card use is behavioral and not based on income. This finding also supports previous research found by Gross and Souleles (2002) in that higher credit card balances stem from behavioral factors. 34 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 To facilitate the education process for solvent households, there are two steps. One, planners, counselors, and educators must teach the client about behavioral biases that exist when making financial decisions. Two, financial planners, counselors, and educators should teach clients about the inefficiency associated with solvent revolving. The first step is to educate the client about behavioral biases. Since behavioral biases affect most individuals, it is important to know about them in order to diminish some of the unfavorable effects. Financial planners, counselors and educators can help the consumer develop strategies to control the inefficient behavior and implement appropriate behavior. First, the consumer can set up automatic payments toward their credit card balance. This would reduce the credit card balance while decreasing the likelihood of consumers missing or being behind on their payments. Next, the planner, counselor or educator should help the client set realistic goals for paying off the debt and help the client understand their motives for saving. The next step in helping solvent revolvers understand their inefficient behavior is to educate them as to why the behavior is inefficient. Education about interest rates, savings accounts, and the tradeoff between holding a balance on a credit card and paying off the balance using savings is essential. Following these steps can allow financial planners help clients build wealth instead of exhibiting inefficient behaviors. 35 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Appendix Solvent revolvers have the knowledge and ability to be convenience users, but are not. To investigate this further, convenience users and solvent revolvers in the top quintile of financial sophistication are analyzed. The descriptive statistics for the two groups is shown in Table 1.6. 36 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.6: Descriptive Statistics for the Top Quintile of Solvent Revolvers and Convenience Credit Card Users. Population Percent Human Capital Education Less than high school High school graduate Some college College degree Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies Saving for Unemployment Saving for Illness Ability to borrow from friends/relatives Self Employed Number of Liquid Accounts Time Constraint Factors Number of Children Payment History On time/ No payment Behind Number of hours worked in a week Not working Working less than full time (1-39 hrs) Working full time (≤40 hrs) Credit attitude Positive Ambivalent Negative Bankruptcy history Lifecycle Factors Age Under 35 35 to 55 Over 55 Gender Male Female Marital Status Married Not married Income Solvent Revolvers in the Top Quintile of Financial Sophistication n=194 9.07 Convenience Users in the Top Quintile of Financial Sophistication 0.72 16.98 14.69 67.61 0.69 13.52 12.76 73.03 43.21 2.69 4.37 16.15 19.43 0.7977 (0.0289) 37.27 2.45 4.27 12.32 19.84 0.7551 (0.0152) 0.7991 0.6472 (0.0764) n=804 24.7 (0.0349) 90.62 9.38 97.73 2.27 11.66 11.18 77.16 24.1 12.13 63.77 22.64 52.73 24.63 6.87 24.23 46.22 29.54 3.38 22.33 46.58 31.09 14.92 38.98 46.1 86.12 13.88 87.51 12.49 66.66 71.09 33.34 28.91 $120,030.43 $185,341.18 (9,132.72) (18,407.22) Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from a weighted analysis of one implicate. (Mean (standard error) for continuous variables; column percent’s for categorical variables) (n=998) 37 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Demographically, solvent revolvers and convenience users tend to have the same level of education, but more convenience users have college degrees. Solvent revolvers save more for emergencies and have the ability to borrow from friends/relatives more than convenience users. Solvent revolvers have more children, have a higher frequency of being behind on payments, and more are working full time. More solvent revolvers view credit as ambivalent, more declared bankruptcy in the past, and they tend to be younger, unmarried, and have a lower income than convenience users. A logistic regression comparing the two groups was run to analyze where the differences between the two groups. The results for the logistic regression are presented in Table 1.7. Odds ratios compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable has on the dependent variable. Since the solvent revolver has the ability to be a convenience user, it is important to distinguish the differences between the two groups and explain why households remain solvent revolvers of credit cards. 38 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 1.7: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Top Quintile Solvent Revolver Compared to a Top Quintile Convenience User in the 2010 SCF Parameter Estimate p Odds Ratio Intercept -1.5397 0.0018 Human Capital Education Less than high school -0.4174 0.7117 0.659 Some college -0.5273 0.1158 0.59 College degree -0.5948 0.017 0.552 Mental Accounting/Precautionary Savings Motives Saving for Emergencies 0.2073 0.2502 1.23 Saving for Unemployment -0.3076 0.5716 0.735 Saving for Illness 0.2734 0.5274 1.314 Ability to borrow from friends/relatives 0.1711 0.4805 1.187 Self Employed -0.361 0.0871 0.697 Number of Liquid Accounts 0.339 0.114 1.404 Time Constraint/Self-control Factors Number of children 0.1031 0.2485 1.109 Payment History Behind 1.2471 0.0009 3.48 Number of hours worked in a week Working less than full time (1-39 hrs) 0.7455 0.0411 2.108 Working full time (≤40 hrs) 1.0223 0.0007 2.78 Credit attitude Positive -0.3379 0.1127 0.713 Negative -0.3615 0.0862 0.697 Bankruptcy history 0.6278 0.1092 1.873 Lifecycle Factors Age 35 to 55 -0.2943 0.2813 0.745 Over 55 -0.2887 0.3393 0.749 Gender Female -0.1226 0.7211 0.885 Marital Status Not married 0.3793 0.1208 1.461 Income/$10,000 -0.0074 0.0015 0.993 Source: 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances. Statistics derived from an unweighted analysis of one implicate. Bolded values are significant at the 0.05 level. 39 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Level of education, have a history of making late payments, the number of hours spent working a week, and household income are the key factors that differentiate the most financially sophisticated solvent revolvers and the most financially sophisticated convenience users. Although income is significant, with every $10,000 increase of income, the household is only 0.7% more likely to be a convenience user. Thus, households are solvent revolvers based on behavioral issues rather than liquidity issues (as stated by Gross and Souleles, 2002). 40 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 References Becker, G. S. (1964). A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education (First edition). New York: Columbia University Press for the NBER. Bertaut, C. C., Haliassos, M., & Reiter, M. (2009). 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The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 149-185. Huston, S. J., Finke, M. S., & Smith, H. (2012). A financial sophistication proxy for the Survey of Consumer Finances, Applied Economics Letters, 19:13, 1275-1278. 41 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Haliassos, M. & Reiter, M. (2005). Credit card debt puzzles, unpublished working paper, CFS Working Paper 2005/26. Kim, H. & DeVaney, S. A. (2001). The determinants of outstanding balances among credit card revolvers. Financial Counseling and Planning, 12, 67-78. Laibson, D., Repetto, A., & Tobacman, J. (2001). A debt puzzle. In P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz, & M. Woodford, (Eds.), Knowledge, information, and expectations in modern economics: In honor of Edmund S. Phelps (pp. 228266). Princeton: Princeton University Press. Lehnert, A. & Maki, D. (2007). Consumption, debt, and portfolio choice: Testing the effects of bankruptcy law. In S. Agarwal & B. W. Ambrose (Eds.), Household credit uses: Personal debt and mortgages (pp. 55-76). New York, NY: Palmgrave Macmillan. Lindamood, S., Hanna, S. D., & Bi, L. (2007). Using the Survey of Consumer Finances: Some methodological considerations and issues. The Journal of Consumer Affairs, 41, 195-222. Rutherford, L. G. & DeVaney, S. A. (2009). Utilizing the theory of planned behavior to understand convenience use of credit cards. Journal of Financial Counseling and Planning, 20(2), 48-63. Shefrin, H. M. & Thaler, R. H. (1988). The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. Economic Inquiry, 26, 609-643. Telyukova, I. A. & Wright, R. (2008). A model of money and credit, with application to the credit card debt puzzle. Review of Economic Studies, 75, 629-647. 42 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 183-206. 43 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 CHAPTER II FINANCIAL LITERACY AND SHROUDED CREDIT CARD REWARDS Abstract Credit card companies charge an interchange fee for each transaction, and almost half of this fee is returned to consumers in the form of a reward or perk program. Among credit card users who do not use cards for borrowing (convenience users), rewards are a means to negotiate the implicit price of the interchange fee. Any consumer whose time cost is less than the value of rebates should rationally choose a rewards card. Half of convenience users do not have a rewards card. Gabaix and Laibson (2006) propose a model of market segmentation where sellers maximize profits by taking advantage of shrouded attributes through product characteristic separation. Not all credit cards offer rewards, and many credit card companies market non-salient credit card characteristics to appeal to naïve consumers while offering lower-priced cards (net the rebate) to compete for more sophisticated consumers. It is hypothesized that naïve choice among credit card consumers may be explained by financial literacy. When household characteristics such as education, income and wealth are controlled, we find that respondents in the highest financial literacy quintile were twice as likely to have a rewards card. These results imply that consumers with financial literacy deficiencies risk consumer credit product exploitation. 44 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Keywords: Financial literacy, credit card rewards, shrouded attributes, Consumer Finances Monthly Survey 45 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Introduction Credit card purchases have become an increasingly significant payment method for consumers in the United States. According to the Survey of Consumer Payment Choice, 72.2% of consumers have at least one credit card with the average adopter having 3.7 cards (Foster, Meijer, Schuh, & Zabek, 2011). Of these 3.7 cards, two of the cards have a rewards program and the other 1.8 cards do not (do not sum exactly to 3.7 due to rounding and error) (Foster et al., 2011). Each year, Americans make approximately 21.6 billion credit card transactions that total an estimated value of $1.9 trillion (Foster et al., 2011). The typical household uses their credit card approximately 119 times a year with an average value of $89 per transaction for total annual expenditures of $10,600 (Foster et al., 2011). The majority of credit card users are convenience users who pay off their balance each month (Ackerman, Fries, and Windle, 2012). Although credit cards are a convenient payment method, the use of a card has a price. Credit card companies charge the merchant interchange fees to accept credit card payments. The interchange fee is on average 2% and is typically passed to the consumer through higher priced goods (Hayashi, 2009). Beginning in January 2013, merchants are now allowed to pass the merchant fees directly to consumers through a surcharge. The surcharge can range from 1.5% to 3% depending on the merchant. Merchant fees, including interchange fees, make up a large source of revenue for credit card companies. Although credit card companies charge an interchange fee for each transaction, about 40% of this fee is returned to consumers in the form of a reward or perk program 46 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 (Hayashi, 2009). Of the consumers who have at least one credit card, only 53.7% have a credit card with a rewards program (Foster et al, 2011). The remaining households who do not have or use a rewards credit card are essentially missing out on a rebate from the credit card company. Typical rewards credit card programs offer households a small percentage of purchases made through a rebate paid back in the form of points, frequent flier miles, or cash. Households that do not use a rewards credit card program leave money on the table by failing to collect a portion of the interchange fee assessed for using a credit card. Gabaix and Liabson (2006) propose a model of market segmentation where sellers gain by shrouding product attributes and charging higher prices to naïve consumers. Any consumer whose time cost from searching for a rewards card is less than the value of rebates should rationally select a rewards card. Credit card companies recognize that the market consists of sophisticated consumers who will shop around for the largest rebate of interchange fees, and naïve consumers who are unaware of the benefits of searching for a rebate. Rather than paying all consumers an interchange fee rebate, card companies successfully withhold the entire interchange fee from the half of convenience users who do not seek the rebate. Companies marketing credit cards may emphasize less salient attributes such as name recognition, personalized cards, and perceived ability to use cards at a greater number of locations for less sophisticated consumers. They may simultaneously market rebates through card rewards programs to more sophisticated consumers. In doing so, the seller is able to extract greater producer surplus from less sophisticated cardholders who 47 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 do not demand rebates while continuing to receive some producer surplus from more sophisticated consumers who shop around for the most generous rewards program. For example, rewards credit card advertisements are often placed in magazines that cater to a more financially sophisticated clientele (Chase, 2012). Credit card advertisements in financial magazines tend to have more financial information and explanations of the costs and possible benefits associated with the card, while similar advertisements in general interest magazines focus on less financially salient card attributes such as world-wide acceptance (MasterCard, 2012) and the type of credit card people are most likely to recommend (Discover, 2012). Literature Review Financial products, including credit cards, are often complex. Consumers with greater product knowledge are better equipped to make an effective financial decision (Lusardi, 2008). Financial literacy is a way to distinguish sophisticated from naïve consumers within financial product markets. For example, Lusardi and Mitchell (2007) find that less financially literate households do not plan for retirement, do not participate in the stock market and have poor borrowing behavior. Allgood and Walstad (2011) suggest that financial knowledge significantly impacts credit card behavior. Individuals with low financial knowledge are more likely to be revolving users, pay the minimum payment, pay late fees, and exceed the credit limit. Heidhues and Koszegi (2010) suggest that naïve consumers over-borrow and pay penalties in the credit market. Naïve consumers are less able to discern credit card attributes that affect the cost of usage (DellaVigna & Malmendier, 2004; Eliaz & Spiegler, 2004), and card companies with 48 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 more naïve customers are more profitable (Ausubel, 1991; DellaVigna & Malmendier, 2004). Simon, Smith, and West (2010) find that lower-income households are less likely to use a rewards program, and that part-time and retired workers (with a lower time cost to collect information) are more likely to participate in a rewards program. An individual’s ability to make sound financial decisions depends on various factors including salient product information and the knowledge or skills necessary to analyze product attributes. Shrouded attribute theory and human capital theory provide a framework that explains decision-making regarding financial products, namely rewards credit card programs. Research questions are analyzed using a unique dataset that contains both the largest financial literacy survey conducted and detailed information about credit use including the use of rewards cards. The shrouded interchange fee rebate captured through rewards cards creates an opportunity for consumer segmentation based on financial literacy. The hypothesis is that naïve consumer choice among credit card consumers is explained by financial literacy. Method Data and Sample The data used are the current Consumer Finances Monthly (CFM) Survey, a monthly survey conducted by the Consumer Finance Research Group at the Center for Human Resource Research (CHRR) at The Ohio State University. The CFM survey collects detailed information on credit card use, financial literacy, income, assets, and behaviors. The CFM was used in the study because of the vast amount of detailed information on credit card use and the comprehensive instrument designed specifically to 49 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 measure financial literacy. The overall sample size of the CFM survey from 2005 to March 2012 is 22,161. The data were limited to individuals who answered the recently added financial literacy questions and those credit card users who paid off their credit card balance every month for the past twelve months. Only convenience users were chosen in the analysis in order to reduce other variables impacting the choice of rewards card use. The censored sample size from the most current March 2012 data collection was 2,870. Model The model is of consumer demand and producer supply of credit cards based on human capital, credit score and credit history, and economic status: Rewards Credit Card Use = α0 + β1*human_capital + β2*credit_score/history + β3*economic_status + β4*demographic_characteristics + error. Rewards card user is a binary variable equal to 1.0 if the household has a rewards credit card. Human_capital consists of two variables that capture financial literacy and education. Credit_score/history is a series of variables capturing the credit score of the household, bankruptcy history, and the current interest rate of the main credit card. Economic_status is a series of variables that captures the household’s income, net worth, home ownership, business ownership and job stability. Demographic_characteristics is a series of variables that captures a household’s age, gender, race and marital status. 50 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Dependent Variable The dependent variable was constructed by separating two groups of convenience users. The first group consisted of those who take advantage of a reward feature such as cash back, flyer miles, discounts, or any other type of rewards. The second group consisted of those who do not take advantage of a rewards program. Independent Variables Human Capital Human capital is measured using two variables - financial literacy and education. Financial decision-making requires an awareness of financial products and theory. Knowledge and experience accumulated to improve decision making quality is often referred to as human capital. Financial human capital is the stock of knowledge and skills that improve one’s ability to make effective choices within financial markets (Huston, 2010). Financial literacy is a measure of finance-specific human capital, and is the end result of an investment in time and effort accumulating financial knowledge, as well as experience from engaging in financial markets. Financial human capital gives households the ability to make effective and efficient financial decisions. Financial literacy is measured using an instrument developed by Huston (2010, 2012) and is included as a special module within the Consumer Finance Monthly (CFM) survey. The objective financial literacy score is composed of 16 questions that measure the respondent’s knowledge and ability in making financial decisions. The measure directly measures the respondent’s understanding and ability to apply their financial knowledge. The questions are presented in Table 3.7 in the Appendix. The 16-question 51 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 score is the aggregate of the individual questions and is reported as an integer based on the number of questions that were correctly answered. The financial literacy score is broken down into five quintiles to measure differences between the groups of rewards users and non-rewards users. The education variable is a categorical variable based on the respondent’s highest level of education received. Education was classified in four categories: less than high school, high school, some college, and college. Credit Score/History The main determinants of credit card approval are credit score and credit history. Since credit cards with the lowest rates and best reward programs require a high credit score, the study accounts for these factors to control their impact on the dependent variable. Since the CFM does not have a specified credit score variable, several proxies are used to represent the factors that impact the credit score. Five main factors go into the formulation of the FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) score. The five factors are payment history, debt amounts, length of credit history, credit mix and recent searches for credit. Bankruptcy is an important payment history factor included in the FICO score. Credit utilization, or the total amount of current debt divided by the household borrowing capacity, impacts credit approval. Households with a large amount of debt may be less likely to receive offers of additional credit cards. The total debt variable in the CFM includes credit card debt, mortgage debt, home equity loan debt, student loan debt, installment loan debt, bank loan debt, payday loan debt, and other loan debt. The utilization factor also includes household credit card limits. The CFM asks respondents 52 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 for the maximum amount they can borrow on their credit cards. Last, the number of credit cards a household has is also a factor that impacts the utilization factor of the FICO score. Another factor in the FICO score is the credit mix, or the various types of debt owed by the household that represents the household’s ability to pay off the different forms of debt. The variable that best represents credit mix is the total number of debt accounts excluding credit cards. The other types of accounts that are included are bank loans, installment loans, payday loans, student loans, home equity loans, and other types of loans. Credit card interest rate represents the household’s ability to choose credit cards with attractive features, or the household’s lack of choice (demand constraints) regarding credit cards. The CFM asks all owners of a credit card to state the highest interest rate associated with the credit card. Economic Status In order to account for credit card supply and demand differences based on socioeconomic status, controls for income, net worth, homeownership, business ownership and job stability are included. For the regression analysis, the income and net worth variables were log transformed. Homeownership is also included in the analysis. One of the typical questions on a credit card application is whether you own or rent your home. Business ownership is also included. Business owners may value card characteristics unrelated to rewards. Ownership of physical business assets is used as a proxy for business ownership. 53 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 The last variable for economic status is job stability. The preapproved credit application has a question about job stability. The CFM has information regarding the length of time spent working at the respondent's current job. The variable is categorized into 5 categories: less than 1 year, 1-2 years, 3-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10 years and over. Demographic Characteristics Demographic characteristic variables include age, gender, race and marital status. Age is classified into four groups: less than 50, ages 50 to 59, ages 60 to 69, and 70 and older. Gender is categorized as male or female. Race is classified as white, black, Hispanic, and other. Marital status is categorized as married, divorced/separated, widowed and single/never married. Analysis of Data Descriptive statistics were performed to evaluate the characteristics of convenience users who use a rewards program and those who do not. Chi-square analyses were conducted to compare the relationship between rewards users and nonusers for the categorical variables. T-tests were conducted to compare the means of rewards users and non-users for the continuous variables. A logistic regression was run to establish whether there are any differences between convenience rewards card users and those convenience users who do not use a rewards card. Results Descriptive Statistics The descriptive statistics are reported as percentages, means, and standard deviations for the total sample in Table 2.1. 54 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 2.1: Descriptive Statistics for Convenience Credit Card Users Variable Total Sample Rewards Convenience User (n=2053) Non-Rewards Convenience User (n=817) Dependent Variable Rewards Convenience User 71.53 28.47 Independent Variables Human Capital Financial Literacy Quintile 1 (most literate) * 22.44 26.69 11.75 Quintile 2 20.98 22.70 16.65 Quintile 3 15.78 16.07 15.06 Quintile 4 19.30 18.75 20.69 Quintile 5 (least literate) 21.50 15.78 35.86 Education Less than high school * 2.23 1.70 3.55 High School 18.85 15.88 26.32 Some College 22.26 21.19 24.97 College 56.66 61.23 45.17 Credit Score/ History Total amount of debt $68,612 (116,842) $75,494 (120,604) $51,238 (104,839) Household credit limit $28,217 (29,866) $31,330 (27,280) $19,577 (34,674) Number of other debt accounts 0.47 (0.71) 0.4856 (0.6970) 0.4406 (0.7288) Number of credit cards 2.76 (2.06) 3.0378 (2.1776) 2.0736 (1.5101) Bankruptcy history 3.07 2.34 4.90 Interest rate on credit card 14.53% (6.60) 14.6889% (6.5968) 14.1198% (6.6050) Economic Status Income $67,825 (104,236) $76,168 (115,818) $46,860 (62,084) Net Worth $602,466 (1,818,230) $684,077 (2,086,389) $397,391 (786,197) Home ownership 93.92 95.51 89.93 Business ownership 7.60 8.72 4.77 Job stability (# of yrs in current job) Less than 1 year * 55.05 50.56 66.34 1-2 years 3.48 3.75 2.82 3-4 years 4.70 5.41 2.94 5-9 years 9.09 10.18 6.36 10 or more years 27.67 30.10 21.54 Demographic Characteristics Age Less than 50 * 25.40 28.54 17.50 50-59 21.01 21.09 20.81 60-69 26.06 26.89 23.99 Greater than 70 27.53 23.48 37.70 Gender Male 45.30 45.30 45.29 Female * 54.70 54.70 54.71 Race White * 90.14 90.40 89.47 Black 1.85 1.36 3.06 Hispanic 2.54 2.34 3.06 Other 5.47 5.89 4.41 Marital Status Married * 67.05 71.04 57.00 Divorced/ Separated 10.52 9.57 12.90 Widowed 13.42 11.08 19.29 Single/ Never married 9.01 8.30 10.81 Source: March 2012 Consumer Finances Monthly. (Mean (standard deviation) for continuous variables; column percent's for categorical variables) (n = 2,870) * reference group 55 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 The majority of the convenience-user sample (71.5%) has a rewards card. More than half (56.6%) of non-rewards users are in the lowest two financial literacy quintiles, while a larger proportion of rewards users are in the highest financial literacy categories. The majority of the rewards users have a college degree (61.23%) compared to 45% of non-rewards card users. Rewards card users have 47% more debt than non-rewards users, and have a higher credit limit and roughly one more credit card on average. Twice the percentage of non-rewards cards users has declared bankruptcy. Rewards card users have greater financial resources than non-rewards card users. The income of rewards card users is about $30,000 higher, and their net worth is 72% greater than non-rewards users. A greater percentage of rewards cards users are home and business owners. Rewards users tend to be evenly split among age categories, while the majority (62%) of non-rewards users is age 60 and older. There are no gender differences, but roughly twice as many non-rewards card users are black. A higher proportion of non-rewards card users are widowed, divorced or single. T-tests results are presented in Table 2.2. The means for the rewards users are statistically higher than non-users for the following variables: the total amount of debt, household credit limit, number of credit cards, income, and net worth. The only two continuous variables that do not have statistically significant mean differences are the number of debt accounts and the interest rate on the credit cards. 56 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 2.2: T-Tests of Differences between Rewards users and Non-Rewards Users Variable Rewards Convenience User Non-Rewards Convenience User $75,493.91 (120,604.30) $31,330.04 (27,280.29) 0.4856 (0.6970) 3.0378 (2.1776) 14.6889% (6.5968) $51,238.01 (104,838.70) $19,576.79 (34,674.42) 0.4406 (0.7288) 2.0736 (1.5101) 14.1198% (6.6050) $76,168.00 (115,817.70) $684,076.92 (2,086,389.02) $46,860.10 (62,083.54) $397,390.91 (786,196.60) p value Sig. <0.0001 *** <0.0001 *** Credit Score/ History Total amount of debt Household credit limit Number of other debt accounts Number of credit cards Interest rate on credit card 0.1310 <0.0001 *** 0.1385 Economic Status Income Net Worth *p .05, ** p< .01, *** p < 0.001 Source: March 2012 Consumer Finances Monthly. Mean (standard deviation) reported for continuous variables 57 <0.0001 *** 0.0001 *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 The relationship between the rewards convenience users and non-rewards convenience users is analyzed using a chi-square analysis. The majority of the variables are statistically significant except gender. See Table 2.3 for the summary of chi-square results. Rewards users tend to have a higher level of financial literacy and education than the non-rewards users. Rewards users also tend to have a lower level of bankruptcy history. Rewards users exhibit a higher level of homeownership and business ownership. There is also a difference in job stability between the two groups. Rewards users tend to have a longer tenure in their current job compared to non-rewards users. Non-rewards users are older, black, non-Hispanic and unmarried compared to rewards users. 58 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 2.3: Chi-square Analyses of the Differences in Characteristics of Households between Rewards Convenience Users and Non-Rewards Convenience Users. Variable Rewards Convenience User (n=2053) Non-Rewards Convenience User (n=817) 26.69 22.70 16.07 18.75 15.78 11.75 16.65 15.06 20.69 35.86 1.70 15.88 21.19 61.23 3.55 26.32 24.97 45.17 2.34 Human Capital Financial Literacy Quintile 1 (most literate) Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 (least literate) Education Less than high school High School Some College College Credit Score/ History Bankruptcy history Economic Status Home ownership Business ownership Job stability (# of yrs in current job) Less than 1 year 1-2 years 3-4 years 5-9 years 10 or more years Demographic Characteristics Age Less than 50 50-59 60-69 Greater than 70 Gender Male Female Race White Black Hispanic Other Marital Status Married Divorced/ Separated Widowed Single/ Never married *p .05, ** p< .01, *** p < 0.001 Source: March 2012 Consumer Finances Monthly Column percent's reported for categorical variables p value Sig. <0.0001 *** <0.0001 *** 4.90 0.0003 *** 95.51 8.72 89.93 4.77 <0.0001 0.0003 <0.0001 *** *** *** 50.56 3.75 5.41 10.18 30.10 66.34 2.82 2.94 6.36 21.54 <0.0001 *** 28.54 21.09 26.89 23.48 17.50 20.81 23.99 37.70 45.30 54.70 45.29 54.71 90.40 1.36 2.34 5.89 89.47 3.06 3.06 4.41 71.04 9.57 11.08 8.30 57.00 12.90 19.29 10.81 0.9954 59 0.0053 ** <0.0001 *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Results of Logistic Regression on Type of Reward Usage The results of the logistic regression that predicts rewards care use are presented in Table 2.4. Odds ratios compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. 60 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 2.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Rewards User Compared to a Non-Rewards User Parameter Estimate -0.2669 p value Intercept 0.6962 Human Capital Financial Literacy Quintile 2 -0.1248 0.5832 Quintile 3 -0.4736 0.0482 Quintile 4 -0.3609 0.1188 Quintile 5 (least literate) -0.6860 0.0056 Education High School 0.2608 0.5627 Some College 0.1258 0.7794 College 0.2864 0.5198 Credit Score/ History Total amount of debt 0.0000 0.8128 Household credit limit 0.0000 0.1336 Number of other debt accounts -0.2659 0.0111 Number of credit cards 0.2162 <0.0001 Bankruptcy history -0.7572 0.0136 Interest rate on credit card 0.0166 0.1320 Economic Status Income 0.0000 0.4479 Log Income -0.0316 0.2625 Net Worth 0.0000 0.2529 Log Net Worth 0.0381 0.0922 Home ownership 0.7534 0.0081 Business ownership 0.0312 0.9081 Job stability (# of yrs in current job) 1-2 years 0.5759 0.1409 3-4 years 0.3630 0.2677 5-9 years 0.2235 0.4006 10 or more years 0.2189 0.2317 Demographic Characteristics Age 50-59 -0.5029 0.0169 60-69 -0.5059 0.0230 Greater than 70 -0.4127 0.1190 Gender Male -0.1659 0.2589 Race Black -0.0583 0.8962 Hispanic -0.2799 0.4400 Other 0.5898 0.1109 Marital Status Divorced/ Separated -0.4290 0.0458 Widowed -0.1497 0.5456 Single/ Never married -0.1577 0.5320 Source: March 2012 Consumer Finances Monthly. Bolded values are significant at the 0.05 level. 61 Odds Ratio 0.8830 0.6230 0.6970 0.5040 1.2980 1.1340 1.3320 1.0000 1.0000 0.7670 1.2410 0.4690 1.0170 1.0000 0.9690 1.0000 1.0390 2.1240 1.0320 1.7790 1.4380 1.2500 1.2450 0.6050 0.6030 0.6620 0.8470 0.9430 0.7560 1.8040 0.6510 0.8610 0.8540 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Compared to respondents with the highest level of financial literacy, those in middle and lowest literacy quintiles are less likely to be rewards card users by 37.77% and 49.60%, respectively. The number of debt accounts and bankruptcy history are negatively related to rewards card ownership, while the number of credit cards is positively related. For every one unit increase in the number of debt accounts, households are 23.30% less likely to be rewards card users. For every one unit increase in the number of credit cards, households are 24.10% more likely to be rewards card users. Last, households that declare bankruptcy are 53.10% less likely to be rewards card users. The only statistically significant economic status variable is homeownership. Households who own a home are 112.40% more likely to be rewards card users. Of the demographic independent variables, respondents between ages 50-59 and 60-69 are 39.50% and 39.70% less likely to be reward card users compared to those less than 50 years old, respectively. The previously divorced are less likely to have a rewards card than respondents who had not divorced. Households that are divorced are 34.90% less likely to be rewards card users. Summary and Implications Credit card rewards provide a rebate on purchases made using a credit card. For convenience users who do not carry a credit card balance, rewards should be the primary salient credit card choice characteristic. Many convenience users, however, do not use a rewards card. It is hypothesized that credit card companies use rewards as a way to differentiate more price-sensitive sophisticated consumers from naïve consumers who select cards based on non-salient characteristics. Using a comprehensive financial 62 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 literacy instrument available in a national dataset, the study tests whether financial literacy is related to naïve consumer product choice. Respondents in the lowest financial literacy quintile are 50% less likely to use a rewards credit card than the most financially literate respondents. The results provide evidence that producers of financial products are successfully able to exploit deficiencies in financial literacy to sell higher-priced consumer credit products. The ability to segment the credit card market presents one of the best examples of the cross-subsidy suggested by Gabaix and Laibson (2006) where producers shroud an attribute, in this case the rebate of interchange fees provided by a credit card reward, in order to extract greater rents from unsophisticated consumers while maintaining a more competitive market for sophisticated consumers. The findings show that non-reward card users are indeed less financially knowledgeable than rewards card users. These users are allowing credit card companies to keep the full amount of the interchange fee while more financially literate consumers demand a rebate. The welfare implications of this transfer are sobering since non-rewards users are more likely to be a black or Hispanic, lower income and wealth, and older. The rebate in essence creates a wealth transfer from lower socioeconomic status households to credit card companies that no party other than a government entity has an incentive to change since only more sophisticated consumers and card companies are aware of the loss. In order to avoid the wealth transfer, some policy implications are necessary. Recently, the European Union passed new rules limiting the interchange fee and fee amounts credit card companies can charge. Legislation such as these new rules would 63 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 reduce the amount of rebate returned to sophisticated consumers while limiting the charges for naïve consumers. Another policy implication is similar to the Credit CARD Act of 2009 requiring disclosure on credit card statements. By forcing credit card companies to disclose reward card information to all consumers, the naïve have the information to make more knowledgeable decisions regarding a rewards program. 64 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Appendix Table 2.5: Financial Literacy Questionnaire from the Consumer Finances Monthly (CFM) Survey 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Net worth is equal to: (K1-BAS) 1 Total assets 2 Total assets plus liabilities 3 Total assets minus liabilities If your assets increase by $5,000 and your liabilities decrease by $3,000, your net worth would (A1-BAS) 1 Increase by $2,000 2 Increase by $8,000 3 Increase by $3,000 Which bank account is likely to pay the highest interest rate on money saved? (K2-BAS) 1 Savings account 2 Six month CD or certificate of deposit 3 Three year CD Savings accounts and money market accounts are most appropriate for (A2-BAS) 1 Long-term investments like retirement 2 Emergency funds and short-term goals 3 Earning a high rate of return To reduce the total finance costs paid over the life of an auto loan, you should choose a loan with the (K3-BOR) 1 Lowest monthly payment 2 Longest repayment term 3 Shortest repayment If you always pay the full balance on your credit card, which of the following is least important? (A3-BOR) 1 Annual interest rate 2 Annual fees 3 Line of credit 18 On which type of loan is interest never tax deductible? (K4-BOR) 1 A home equity loan 2 An adjustable rate mortgage 3 A personal vehicle loan Which type of mortgage would allow a first-time home buyer to qualify for the highest loan amount? (A4-BOR) 1 Fixed-rate mortgage 2 Adjustable-rate mortgage 3 Reverse mortgage The benefit of owning investments that are diversified is that it (K5-INV) 1 Reduces risk 2 Increases return 3 Reduces tax liability A young investor willing to take moderate risk for above-average growth would be most interested in: (A5-INV) 1 Treasury bills 2 Money market mutual funds 3 Balanced stock funds The main advantage of a 401(k) plan is that it: (K6-INV) 1 Provides a high rate of return with little risk 2 Allows you to shelter retirement savings from taxation 3 Provides a well-diversified mix of investment assets To ensure that some of your retirement savings will not be subject to income tax upon withdrawal, you would contribute to: (A6-INV) 1 A Traditional IRA or Individual Retirement Account 2 A Roth IRA 3 A 401(k) plan If you have an insurance policy with a higher deductible, the premiums will be (K7-INS) 1 Higher 2 Lower 3 The same Which of the following types of insurance is most important for single workers without children? (A7-INS) 1 Life insurance 2 Disability income insurance 3 Dental insurance Which policy provides the most coverage at the lowest cost for a young family? (K8-INS) 1 Renewable term life 2 Whole life 3 Universal life Which household would typically have the greatest life insurance needs? (A8-INS) 1 A middle-class retired couple 2 A middle-aged working couple with children in college 3 A single-earner family with two young children in pre-school 65 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 References Ackerman, R., Fries, G. & Windle, R. A. (2012). Changes in US family finances from 2007 to 2010: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin. Allgood, S. and Walstad, W. B. (2011). The effects of perceived and actual financial knowledge on credit card behavior. Networks Financial Institute at Indiana State University Working Paper 2011-WP-15. Ausubel, L. (1991). The failure of competition in the credit card market. The American Economic Review, 81(1): 50-81. Chase. (2012, January/February). [Advertisement for Chase Blueprint Credit Card]. Money, 54-58. DellaVigna, S. & Malmendier, U. (2004). Contract design and self-control: Theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(2): 353-402. Discover. (2012, June). [Advertisement for Discover Credit Card]. Parents, 21. Eliaz, K. & Spiegler, R. (2004). Contracting with diversely naïve agents. Working paper, The Foerder Institute for Economic Research and The Sackler Institute of Economic Studies. Foster, K., Meijer, E., Schuh, S. & Zabek, M. A. (2011). The 2009 Survey of Consumer Payment Choice. Public Policy Discussion Papaer 11-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Gabaix, X. & Laibson, D. (2006). Shrouded attributes, consumer myopia, and information suppression in competitive markets. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(2): 505-540. 66 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Hayashi, F. (2009). Do U.S. consumers really benefit from payment card rewards? Economic Review, Q1: 37-63. Heidhues, P. & Koszegi, B. (2010). Exploiting naivete about self-control in the credit market. American Economic Review, 100(5): 2279-2303. Huston, S. J. (2010). Measuring financial literacy. Journal of Consumer Affairs, 44(Summer): 296-316. Huston, S. J. (2012). Financial literacy and the cost of borrowing. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 36(5): 566-572. Lusardi, A. (2008). Financial literacy: An essential tool for informed consumer choice? Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. Lusardi, A. & Mitchell, O. (2007). Financial literacy and retirement planning: New evidence from the Rand American Life Panel. MasterCard. (2012, June 18). [Advertisement for MasterCard World Elite Credit Card]. Bloomberg Business Week, 8. Simon, J., Smith, K. & West, T. (2010). Price incentives and consumer payment behavior. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34: 1759-1772. 67 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 CHAPTER III DEBIT OR CREDIT: THE IMPACT OF MYOPIA AND CREDIT ATTITUDE ON PAYMENT CHOICE Abstract The choice between debit or credit use is dependent on factors like the features associated with the type of card and the attributes of the individual. Attributes include myopia, credit attitude, human capital, life-cycle factors like generational cohort and gender, and a household’s finances. It is hypothesized that myopic individuals may explain debit card use. Based on multiple years of the Survey of Consumer Finances, the study discovered that respondents who are myopic are both debit card users as well as revolving credit card users. The results are mixed regarding credit attitude, but convenience credit card users have a below average attitude toward using credit. These results imply that myopic households should use a debit card to avoid that costs associated with revolving credit card balances. Key words: Credit cards, debit cards, myopia, credit attitude, Survey of Consumer Finances, factor analysis 68 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Introduction Households have many choices when it comes to paying for goods and services. The main payment methods include cash, check, credit cards, and debit cards. Through an extensive study, Herbst-Murphy (2010) finds that with check usage declining, households tend to mainly use a card to pay for goods and services. The use of debit cards has increased significantly over the past several years (Herbst-Murphy, 2010). Stango and Zinman (2008) find that more consumers use debit cards than credit cards. The authors also find that consumers tend to “specialize in their payment choices” suggesting that consumers use a card consistently for all purchases rather than switching between payment methods. Stango and Zinman (2008) posit the classification as debit users or credit users can be informative. King and King (2005) provide evidence that households will always be better off choosing a credit card over a debit card. The authors suggest households should solely use a credit card because of the benefits they provide. In addition, Zinman (2009) argues that debit cards offer no benefit for a neoclassical consumer. Households select a preferred payment method based on various factors. First, the positive and negative attributes of the method will influence the choice. The benefits of using a credit card are the ability to float purchases, the perks of a rewards program, and the potential to build credit. Adverse characteristics of a credit card are the high interest rate for revolving balances, high fees associated with late payments, and fees for carrying a balance over the limit. 69 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Debit cards also have both positive and negative characteristics. First, they are widely accepted and are available for consumers that do not have access to credit. Debit cards are also used as a means to control spending for some consumers (Borzekowski, Kiser & Ahmed, 2008; Sprenger & Stavins, 2010; Rogers & Dopico, 2010). However, debit cards can lead to expensive overdraft fees (Stango & Zinman, 2008; Parrish, 2009) and debit card usage is the most likely cause of overdraft fees. Hayashi and Stavins (2012) suggest that those who use debit will face higher debit fees. Debit cards are also risky if the card is used in situations where the card is not kept in sight, like at a restaurant (Rogers & Dopico, 2010) as well as being susceptible to fraud and identity theft. Another risk factor is if the debit card is stolen. Since debit cards are directly linked to a checking account, funds from withdrawals or purchases are immediately removed from the account. If the consumer reports the card stolen, the consumer may only be liable for $50, but the bank has up to 20 days to restore the money in the account. The delay can be inconvenient to some consumers that need the funds quickly. The characteristics of households who mainly use credit cards differ from the characteristics of those who mainly use debit cards. The households that primarily use debit cards are younger, have a lower income, have a lower FICO score, and are less educated (King & King, 2005; Hayashi & Stavins, 2012; Oliver Wyman, 2013). King and King (2005) and Zinman (2009) suggest that households would be better off using a credit card rather than a debit card for their main payment method. The household’s preference for debit or credit is influenced by other factors such as myopia, credit attitude, human capital, and other life-cycle characteristics. The purpose of this 70 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 paper is to evaluate if households who are myopic use debit cards as a spending constraint. Literature Review A household’s choice of payment method depends on several factors including myopia, credit attitude, financial sophistication, past experiences, gender, age, and characteristics of the method. Since the household tends to use the same payment method across all purchases (Stango & Zinman, 2008; Herbst-Murphy, 2010), examining the rationale behind the chosen payment method can provide insight on a household’s financial behaviors. Myopia In the seminal article on myopia, Strotz (1955) proposes individuals have conflicting preferences that influence their ability to optimize future behavior. Thaler and Shefrin (1981) suggest the planner is farsighted and focused on overall lifetime utility while the doer is myopic and focused only on the current period. Behavioral factors, such as myopia, often influence an individual’s preference. The choice of payment method is influenced by a consumer’s level of myopia. Myopia is defined as the inability to defer gratification. Many consumers choose to use a debit card for budgeting and control purposes (Sprenger & Stavins, 2010). Although some studies suggest that individuals use debit cards as a control mechanism, other fail to find significant results. For example, Borzekowski, Kiser, and Ahmed (2008) find that only 5.8% of the sample uses a debit card in order to restrain their spending. Fusaro’s (2013) findings do not support that debit cards are used to control spending. 71 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Other studies find that consumers use debit cards to control spending, especially with credit cards. Sprenger and Stavins (2010) and Lee, Abdul-Rahman and Kim (2007) find that households who revolve their credit card balance are more likely to adopt and use a debit card. Stango and Zinman (2008) suggest that revolving status should be the single greatest difference between payment methods. According to theory, convenience users should prefer a credit card since these users can float the loan, avoid costly fees and other benefits associated with credit cards. Revolving users should prefer a debit card since revolving a balance often involves high fees and interest payments. Credit Attitude Past literature suggests that households that have a positive attitude toward credit tend to use credit cards more freely. Bertaut and Haliassos (2001) use variables such as households willing to buy furs and jewelry on credit and willing to use credit for daily living to measure credit attitude and self-control. Hayhoe, Leach, Turner, Bruin, and Lawrence (2000) find that attitude toward credit influences college student’s credit card purchasing behavior. Students with a negative attitude toward credit will feel sorry for making a purchase compared to those with a positive attitude. In addition, the authors find that the more positive the attitude toward credit, the more likely the student is to revolve a credit card balance (Hayhoe et. al, 2000). However, Durkin (2000) finds that those who have more credit cards and a revolving balance tend to have a negative attitude toward credit cards. 72 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human Capital Financial decisions, including payment choices, are influenced by an individual’s stock of knowledge, experience, skills and values. The stock of knowledge and experience is defined as human capital (Becker, 1962). Past financial experiences and knowledge impact the household’s ability to make effective financial decisions in the future. Human capital can be improved upon with education and experience. Financial human capital, also known as financial sophistication, has the potential to impact a household’s financial management decisions and behaviors. There is conflicting literature regarding financial sophistication and card use. First, Stango and Zinman (2008) find that heavy credit card users are more sophisticated and debit card users are less sophisticated. However, Rogers and Dopico (2010) find that heavy credit users have higher levels of debt, which is inconsistent with the literature regarding a more sophisticated user. King and King (2005) suggest there is a learning curve in regards to debit card use. Their results show that debit card use increases with education until the individual obtains a college degree. The households with a college degree are no more likely to use a debit card than those with only a high school degree. The authors postulate that those with a college education are more financially sophisticated and therefore know the benefits of using a credit card over a debit card. 73 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Demographic Characteristics of Debit Card Users Gender influences payment choice among credit and debit cards. Herbst-Murphy (2010) finds that debit users are female, younger, have children, and are married. In contrast, the typical credit card user is a middle-aged male with a higher level of income (Herbst-Murphy, 2010). Gender is also significant in payment method choice. Borzekowski, Kiser, and Ahmed (2008) find that gender is significant in debit card choice. Ching and Hayashi (2010) find that females are less likely to hold either debit or credit reward cards. Generational cohorts are typically defined by birth year and are usually shaped by significant historical events and popular culture (Coomes, 2004). Cohorts differ significantly by the behaviors individuals’ exhibit and cohort effects are life-long and shape the individuals in each generation (Berkowitz & Schewe, 2011). For example, individuals in the Greatest Generation (born between 1900 and 1925) were adults during the Great Depression, which had a large impact on subsequent spending and saving behaviors. Age cohort also plays a role in the choice of debit or credit. It is especially important to study the younger generations since the Millennial generation is the most diverse and largest cohort (de Bassa Scheresberg, Lusardi & Yakoboski, 2014). Rogers and Dopico (2010) suggest that the Grand Recession influenced younger generational cohorts to use debit cards more frequently to control overspending. Several studies find that consumers who heavily use debit cards are younger (King & King, 2005; Rogers & Dopico, 2010; Hayashi & Stavins, 2012). In addition, Borzekowski and Kiser (2008) 74 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 find that younger individuals choose debit more often than older individuals, but the age difference will diminish over a 10-year period since the technology is becoming more prevalent. King and King (2005) find that age is the largest determining factor of debit card use since younger households are more willing to try new technologies. Rysman (2009) comes to the same conclusion in that using a debit card tends to be a new technology and more likely to be used by younger individuals. Framework and Concepts The theory proposed for the study is behavioral life-cycle hypothesis and human capital theory. Unlike the King and King study (2005), the current study suggests that using a credit card for all purchases is not appropriate for all households especially those who are myopic and have a positive attitude toward credit. Individuals are influenced by behavioral biases and therefore should use a debit card as a control mechanism. The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis suggests that in order to maximize utility, the household will shift resources in periods where the marginal utility of consumption is relatively low to periods where it is relatively high (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988). The hypothesis suggests there are three factors (self-control, mental accounting, and framing) that influence the households desire to shift resources. These three factors are what differentiate the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis from other life-cycle hypotheses. The underlying principle of the behavioral life-cycle hypothesis is that households have a dual preference framework, the planner and the doer (Shefrin & Thaler, 1988). The planner is the rational thinker that focuses on long-term decisions. The doer is short-term, impulsive and succumbs to temptation to consume in the current period. In the dual-self model 75 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 from Thaler and Shefrin (1981) the planner is farsighted and focuses on overall lifetime utility. The doer is nearsighted, myopic, selfish, and always concerned with the current period. In order to minimize current consumption of the doer, the planner implements rules and savings devices. For example, using a debit card instead of a credit card will prevent the doer from spending more than the amount in the bank account. Human capital is a function of goods, services, time and the individual’s current stock of human capital. Human capital is either endowed (i.e., strength, intelligence, and cognitive ability) or acquired. Acquired human capital includes education and financial management behaviors. Individuals can improve their of human capital by obtaining a college education, by gaining experience with financial behaviors or by taking financial courses to improve their ability to understand financial decisions. Although education and financial experience are both acquired human capital, they are different because education is considered general human capital where financial experience is a specific form of human capital. A household’s level of human capital impacts the ability to make efficient financial decisions. Households with a higher level of financial human capital (i.e., more financial experience and sophistication) have the potential to improve the ability to make effective and efficient financial decisions. Households that perform more of the positive financial behaviors (i.e., better financial managers) will have a higher level of human capital. From a theoretical viewpoint, individuals should choose the payment method that is the least expensive and provides the most reward. Human capital influences the choice 76 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 of payment method by limiting the available options as well as the method the household ultimately chooses. Using the framework described above, four concepts were formed: myopia, credit attitude, human capital, life-cycle factors, and finances. Debit card use is a function of these four concepts. The concepts serve as controls to help explain why households use debit cards over credit cards. It is hypothesized that debit card users will be myopic, have a negative attitude toward credit, and have a lower level of financial sophistication than households that use credit cards. Method Data and Sample The data used were from the 1998-2010 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial survey, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board and collected by the National Organization for Research at the University of Chicago. The SCF collects detailed information on the finances of U.S. households. The combined number of observations in the public data set is 24,165 households. The sample size is limited to households that either only use a debit card or only use a credit card. The limited sample size is 10,828 respondents. Each survey year contains five implicates to deal with missing and incomplete data; only the first implicate was used from each survey year in this study. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were performed to explore the data relating to the research question. 77 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Model The model is based on the theoretical framework including constructs for credit attitude, myopia, human capital, life-cycle factors, and finances: Debit Card Use = α0 + β1*credit attitude + β2*myopia + β3*human capital + β4*life-cycle factors + β5*finances + error. Debit card user is a binary variable equal to 1.0 if the household uses a debit card. Credit attitude and myopia are both factors described in the appendix. Human capital consists of two variables that capture financial sophistication and education. Life-cycle factors are a series of variables capturing the various stages in the life-cycle. Variables include generational cohort, gender, race, homeownership, marital status and the presence of children. Finances include variables that describe the household’s level of income and net worth. Dependent Variable The dependent variable is households that use either a debit card, a credit card with a revolving balance (revolving credit card users), or a credit card without a balance (convenience credit card users). The SCF defines a debit card as a payment card that automatically deducts the amount of the purchase from the money in an account (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2012). Logistic regression analyses were run to establish if there is a difference between debit card users and credit card users. See Table 3.1 for the measurement of the dependent variable. 78 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Independent Variables Based on the theoretical framework, the concepts for the model are credit attitude, myopia, human capital, life-cycle factors and finances. Independent variables are used as proxies to form the concepts. The measurement of the independent variables is in Table 3.1. 79 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.1: Coding of Variables Used in the Study Variable Measurement Debit Card User (X7582) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Revolving Credit Card Users (X410, X427, X413, X421, X430, X424) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Convenience Credit Card Users (X410, X427, X413, X421, X430, X424) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Independent Variables Credit Attitude (X401, X402, X403, X404) Above the Mean Credit Attitude 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Below the Mean Credit Attitude ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Myopia (X7510, X7508, X3015, X3016, X7380, X7395) Above the Mean Myopia 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Below the Mean Myopia ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Human Capital Financial Sophistication (X3913, X3014, X414, X6525) Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Quintile 2 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Quintile 3 ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Quintile 4 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Education (X5901, X6101) Less than high school 1 if yes, 0 otherwise High School 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Some College 1 if yes, 0 otherwise College ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Life-Cycle Factors Generational Cohort (Age) (X14, X19) Greatest Generation (1900-1925) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Silent Generation (1926-1945) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Generation X (1965-1980) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Millennial Generation (1981-2000) ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Gender (X8021, X103) Male ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Female 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Married (X7372, X7018) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Have children (X108, X114, X120, X126, X132, X202, X208, X214, X220, X226) 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Finances Income (X5729) Less than $25,000 ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $25,001-$50,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $50,001-$75,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $75,001-$100,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Greater than $100,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Net Worth Less than $10,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $10,001-$50,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $50,001-$100,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise $100,001-$150,000 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Greater than $150,000 ** 1 if yes, 0 otherwise From the Survey of Consumer Finances 1998-2010 (year 2010 is reference category) X8000 was used for age, gender, and education. Net Worth provided by Federal Reserve. ** Indicates reference category. 80 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Credit Attitude The credit attitude construct explains the individual’s willingness to use credit to fund consumption. The SCF has many variables that describe attitude toward spending on credit. The appendix of this paper provides the results of a principal component analysis and a factor analysis to derive the underlying latent concept for credit attitude. The variables that make up the construct are has a positive attitude toward credit, willing to use credit to fund a vacation, willing to use credit to purchase furs or jewelry, and willing to use credit to cover living expenses if income were cut. A factor score is then calculated two groups are formed to see the magnitude of change between the levels of credit attitude. The two groups are: individuals above the mean and the individuals below the mean. See Appendix I for the complete analysis. Myopia Myopia is the individual’s inability to defer gratification to a future time period. Based on a dual-self framework, households consist of a planner and a doer. The planner is rational and is concerned with lifetime utility and will impose rules to limit the doer. The doer is myopic, thinks of only one period and succumbs to temptation easily. The planner must exert rules over the doer to maximize utility in the long run. The SCF does not have a measure of myopia and the appendix of this paper provides the results of a principal component analysis and a factor analysis to derive the underlying latent concept for myopia. The variables that make up the construct are spending exceeded income over the past year, savings habits are described as not saving and spending more or as much as 81 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 income and smokes. A factor score is then calculated and two groups are formed – above the mean myopia and below the mean myopia. See Appendix I for the complete analysis. Human Capital The human capital concept explains the household’s potential to make effective decisions. The human capital construct consists of two variables – one that measures specific financial human capital and one that is a general measure of human capital. Financial sophistication is a latent concept developed through a factor analysis by Huston, Finke and Smith (2012). The score includes four variables: stock ownership (within or outside of tax sheltered accounts), willingness to accept at least some investment risk, not revolving more than 50% of credit card limit, and the level of understanding of personal finance. The indirect measure of financial sophistication is based on observed and self-reported behavioral variables instead of directly measured financial literacy. A direct measure of financial knowledge, ability and confidence is more effective at determining financial sophistication, but the SCF does not contain such variables. Financial sophistication is categorized into five quintiles to measure the magnitude between levels of sophistication. Quintile 1 is the most sophisticated group and quintile 5 is the least sophisticated. Quintile 3 is the reference group for the regression analysis. Education is a general measure of human capital and is often used to proxy the household’s ability to make effective decisions. Education is categorized as less than high school, high school, some college, and college. College is the reference category for the regression analysis. 82 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Life-Cycle Factors The lifecycle factors concept is included since households make decisions based on being in different stages of the lifecycle. The variables that make up this concept represent why the household will choose a preferred card type. Based on the framework, the life-cycle stage influences the purchasing method of the household. The life-cycle concept consists of five variables including generational cohort, gender, marital status and the presence of children. Generational cohort impacts a household’s choice between debit and credit. Older generations are less willing to accept new technology. Since these households already have credit card, they will be less willing to change to a debit card. The generational cohort variable is broken into five categories by birth year. The generational cohorts are: Greatest generation born between 1900-1925, Silent generation born between 1926-1945, Baby Boomer generation born between 1946-1964, Generation X born between 1964-1980, and Millennial generation born between 1981-2000. Each generational cohort is dummy coded as 1 or 0. The Millennial generation is the reference category for the regression analysis. Next, gender, marital status and the presence of children are included in the lifecycle factor construct. The head of household’s gender is recorded as either male or female. Both are dummy variables with 1 as yes and 0 otherwise. Male is the reference category for the regression analysis. Marital status is coded as married or not married. The married category is the reference group. The presence of children are coded as either 83 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 having children under 18 in the household or no children under 18. The group of households with children under 18 is the reference group. Finances The finances concept includes two variables, income and net worth. Income and net worth influence financial decisions and the ability to make purchases. Both variables are inflated to 2010 dollars. The income variable is broken into five categories and dummy variables are created for each category. The five categories are: less than $25,000, $25,001-$50,000, $50,001-$75,000, $75,001-$100,000, and greater than $100,000. The net worth variable was created using the SAS code provided by the Federal Reserve Board. The net worth variable is broken into five categories and dummy variables are created for each category. The five categories are: less than $10,000, $10,001-$50,000, $50,001-$100,000, $100,001-$150,000, and greater than $150,000. Analysis of Data Descriptive statistics were conducted to evaluate the characteristics of the household. In order to generalize the results back to the entire population of the United States, the descriptive statistics were weighted using the weight variable provided by the Federal Reserve Board (Lindamood, Hanna & Bi, 2007). Since the dependent variable is binary, logistic regression was used to predict the likelihood of the dependent variable occurring given the set of independent variables. The regression analyses were not weighted (Lindamood, Hanna & Bi, 2007). 84 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Results Descriptive Statistics Since the descriptive statistics are weighted, the reported percentages and means represent all households for the United States. See Table 3.2 for a summary of the descriptive statistics. 85 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.2: Population Percentage/Means for the Variables Variable Total Sample Debit Card User n = 10,828 100% n = 2,758 25.47% Revolving Credit Card User n = 2,496 23.05% Convenience Credit Card User n = 5,574 51.48% Credit Attitude Above Mean Attitude 32.7 38.02 42.03 20.5 Below Mean Attitude 67.3 61.98 57.97 79.5 Myopia Above Mean Myopia 35.22 51.19 37.14 20.13 Below Mean Myopia 64.78 48.81 62.86 79.87 Groups AM Attitude/ AM Myopia 16.12 24.57 19.57 6.12 AM Attitude/ BM Myopia 16.58 13.44 22.47 14.38 BM Attitude/ AM Myopia 19.10 26.61 17.57 14.00 BM Attitude/ BM Myopia 48.20 35.37 40.40 65.50 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most 19.95 0.93 16.62 38.82 sophisticated) Quintile 2 20.01 16.27 20.89 22.46 Quintile 3 19.99 18.52 22.99 18.76 Quintile 4 20.00 27.03 21.60 12.73 Quintile 5 (least 20.04 37.26 17.90 7.23 sophisticated) Education Less than high school 14.02 19.63 13.40 9.79 High School 32.62 37.08 34.78 27.05 Some College 25.23 29.58 27.08 20.02 College 28.13 13.71 24.74 43.14 Life-Cycle Factors Generational Cohort 51.6460 42.1249 50.6731 60.5145 (Age) Greatest Generation 8.38 1.81 4.62 17.04 (1900-1925) Silent Generation (192627.39 10.53 28.83 40.50 1945) Baby Boomer Generation 37.14 34.03 46.49 32.05 (1946-1964) Generation X (1965-1980) 22.15 40.51 18.60 9.52 Millennial Generation 4.94 13.12 1.46 0.88 (1981-2000) Gender Male 46.03 39.79 42.72 54.04 Female 53.97 60.21 57.28 45.96 Married 50.82 35.52 56.29 59.28 Have children 40.42 52.94 44.50 26.44 Finances Income $78,206.70 $36,694.24 $64,093.48 $125,017.07 Net Worth $607,523.87 $84,551.35 $326,315.89 $1,282,552.85 From the Survey of Consumer Finances 1998-2010. Statistics derived from the weighted analysis of one implicate. Income & net worth are in 2010 dollars. The mean is presented for age, income and net worth; column percent's are included for all categorical variables. 86 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Based on the total sample column, the majority of the sample falls below the mean in both credit attitude and myopia. However, the various card users are much different. Debit card users mainly fall below the mean in credit attitude and are even in the myopia construct. The credit card users tell a different story. The majority of credit card users, both revolving and convenience users, fall below the mean in credit attitude and myopia. The groups section of Table 3.2 is a combination of the two groups of attitude and two groups of myopia. The four groups are: above the mean attitude/above the mean myopia, above the mean attitude/below the mean myopia, below the mean attitude/above the mean myopia, and below the mean attitude/below the mean myopia. About 48% of the total sample fall in the below the mean attitude/below the mean myopia group. The debit card users and revolving credit card users are split among all four groups. The majority of the convenience credit card users are in the below the mean attitude/below the mean myopia group. Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to All Credit Card Users The results for the logistic regression to compare debit card users to all credit card users are presented in Table 3.3. Odds ratios were used to compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. This regression distinguishes the levels of credit attitude and myopia among debit users and all credit card users. 87 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.3: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to All Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=10,828) Parameter Estimate -2.5391 Intercept Credit Attitude Above Mean Attitude -0.3211 Myopia Above Mean Myopia 0.1926 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -3.222 Quintile 2 0.0622 Quintile 4 0.7322 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 1.389 Education Less than high school 0.1266 High School 0.1172 Some College 0.3231 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -2.794 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.3263 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.1499 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.3828 Female -0.1058 Not Married 0.3964 Have children 0.3303 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 0.0813 $50,001-$75,000 0.2954 $75,001-$100,000 0.1329 Greater than $100,000 -0.8359 Net Worth Less than $10,000 1.3374 $10,001-$50,000 1.0815 $50,001-$100,000 0.6734 $100,001-$150,000 0.5154 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6405 Year 2004 1.4881 Year 2007 2.171 Year 2010 3.4116 R2 0.4775 Adjusted R2 0.7037 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 88 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 *** <0.0001 0.725 *** 0.0112 1.212 ** <0.0001 0.5649 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.04 1.064 2.08 4.011 *** 0.3268 0.2608 0.0025 1.135 1.124 1.381 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0429 0.1525 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.061 0.098 0.317 0.682 0.9 1.486 1.391 0.3747 0.0136 0.4163 <0.0001 1.085 1.344 1.142 0.433 *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0006 3.809 2.949 1.961 1.674 *** *** *** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.897 4.429 8.767 30.314 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** ** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Compared to the below mean credit attitude group, the households with above the mean credit attitude are 27.5% less likely to use a debit card. Compared to the below mean myopia group, the households with above the mean myopia are 21.2% more likely to use a debit card. Financial sophistication is significantly related to debit card use. Compared to the middle level of financial sophistication, the individuals in the highest level of financial sophistication are 96% less likely to use debit cards. However, quintiles 4 and 5 are 108% and 301.1% more likely to use debit cards, respectively. Compared to households with a college degree, the households with some college are 38.1% more likely to use debit cards. All of the variables in the life-cycle construct are significant, except gender. First, when compared to the Millennial Generation, the other generations are less likely to use a debit card. The households that are not married and have children are more likely to use debit cards. The households with income between $50,001 and $75,000 are 34.4% more likely to use a debit card; however, the households with an income greater than $100,000, are 56.7% less likely to use debit cards when compared to households with an income less than $25,000. Net worth also has an impact on debit card use. When compared to households with a net worth greater than $150,000, the households with a net worth greater than $10,000 are more likely to use debit cards. Last, survey year is statistically significant in the study. When compared to year 1998, households in years 2001-2010 are more likely to use a debit card. 89 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users The results for the logistic regression to compare debit card users to revolving credit card users are presented in Table 3.4. Odds ratios were used to compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. This regression distinguishes the levels of credit attitude and myopia between debit card users and revolving credit card users. 90 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.4: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to a Revolving Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=5,254) Parameter Estimate -1.0258 Intercept Credit Attitude Above Mean Attitude -0.5228 Myopia Above Mean Myopia 0.0588 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -2.8831 Quintile 2 -0.047 Quintile 4 0.4626 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 0.9851 Education Less than high school -0.0136 High School -0.0681 Some College 0.064 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -2.092 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.1268 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.2816 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.5334 Female -0.2033 Not Married 0.4334 Have children 0.2488 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 -0.0136 $50,001-$75,000 0.1043 $75,001-$100,000 -0.0578 Greater than $100,000 -0.6099 Net Worth Less than $10,000 0.8919 $10,001-$50,000 0.6557 $50,001-$100,000 0.2933 $100,001-$150,000 0.2064 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6075 Year 2004 1.4435 Year 2007 2.103 Year 2010 3.468 R2 0.4436 Adjusted R2 0.592 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 91 p Odds Ratio 0.0007 *** <0.0001 0.593 *** 0.478 1.061 <0.0001 0.7012 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.056 0.954 1.588 2.678 0.9238 0.5569 0.5901 0.986 0.934 1.066 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0171 0.0124 <0.0001 0.004 0.123 0.119 0.278 0.587 0.816 1.542 1.283 *** *** *** ** ** *** *** 0.8924 0.4283 0.7449 0.0009 0.986 1.11 0.944 0.543 *** <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0382 0.2105 2.44 1.926 1.341 1.229 *** *** ** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.836 4.235 8.191 32.073 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Compared to the below mean credit attitude group, the households with above the mean credit attitude are 40.7% less likely to use a debit card. Financial sophistication is significantly related to debit card use. Compared to the middle level of financial sophistication, the individuals in the highest level of financial sophistication are 94.4% less likely to use debit cards. However, quintiles 4 and 5 are 58.8% and 167.8% more likely to use debit cards, respectively. All of the variables in the life-cycle construct are significant. First, when compared to the Millennial Generation, the other generations are less likely to use a debit card. Females are 18.4% less likely to use a debit card. The households that are not married and have children are more likely to use debit cards. The households with income greater than $100,000 are 45.7% less likely to use a debit card when compared to households with an income less than $25,000. Net worth also has an impact on debit card use. When compared to households with a net worth greater than $150,000, the households with a net worth between $10,001 and $100,000 are more likely to use debit cards. Last, survey year is statistically significant in the study. When compared to year 1998, households in years 2001-2010 are more likely to use a debit card. Results of Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users The results for the logistic regression to compare households that are debit card users to convenience credit card users are presented in Table 3.5. Odds ratios were used to compare the magnitude of the effect that each independent variable had on the dependent variable. To further the story among credit and debit use, the difference 92 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 among convenience users and debit users is important. Households with above average myopia as well as a positive attitude toward credit should use debit cards rather than credit cards. This regression analyzes the difference in myopia and credit attitude among debit card users and convenience credit card users. 93 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.5: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Debit Card User Compared to a Convenience Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=8,332) Parameter Estimate -2.5342 Intercept Credit Attitude Above Mean Attitude -0.0658 Myopia Above Mean Myopia 0.4626 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -3.543 Quintile 2 0.1019 Quintile 4 1.0212 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 2.1013 Education Less than high school 0.2194 High School 0.2469 Some College 0.5977 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -3.4673 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.5773 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.0718 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.1984 Female 0.0573 Not Married 0.3229 Have children 0.6019 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 0.3302 $50,001-$75,000 0.5973 $75,001-$100,000 0.2913 Greater than $100,000 -0.8622 Net Worth Less than $10,000 2.0625 $10,001-$50,000 1.5855 $50,001-$100,000 0.9698 $100,001-$150,000 0.8281 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6838 Year 2004 1.3839 Year 2007 2.0887 Year 2010 3.2294 R2 0.6012 Adjusted R2 0.836 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 94 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 *** 0.5523 0.936 <0.0001 1.588 *** <0.0001 0.4559 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.029 1.107 2.776 8.177 *** 0.2153 0.0702 <0.0001 1.245 1.28 1.818 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0003 0.5075 0.5686 0.0038 <0.0001 0.031 0.076 0.342 0.82 1.059 1.381 1.826 *** *** *** 0.0141 0.0003 0.1726 <0.0001 1.391 1.817 1.338 0.422 ** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 7.866 4.882 2.637 2.289 *** *** *** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.981 3.99 8.074 25.264 *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Compared to the below mean credit attitude group, the households with above the mean myopia are 58.8% more likely to use a debit card. Financial sophistication is significantly related to debit card use. Compared to the middle level of financial sophistication, the individuals in the highest level of financial sophistication are 97.1% less likely to use debit cards. However, quintiles 4 and 5 are 177.6% and 717.7% more likely to use debit cards, respectively. Compared to the households with a college degree, the households with a high school degree and some college are more likely to use debit cards. Most of the variables in the life-cycle construct are significant. First, when compared to the Millennial Generation, the other generations are less likely to use a debit card except Generation X. The households that are not married and have children are more likely to use debit cards. Compared to households with income less than $25,000, the households with income between $25,000 and $75,000 are more likely to use a debit card. However, households with income greater than $100,000 are less likely to use a debit card. Net worth also has an impact on debit card use. When compared to households with a net worth greater than $150,000, the households with a net worth between zero and $150,000 are more likely to use debit cards. Last, survey year is statistically significant in the study. When compared to year 1998, households in years 2001-2010 are more likely to use a debit card. Summary and Implications The choice between debit and credit is dependent on various factors. The research investigated myopia and credit attitude among debit and credit card users. 95 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Human capital, life-cycle factors, and finances also play an important role in payment choice. Based on the results between debit card users and credit card users (both revolving and convenience users), individuals with an above the mean attitude are less likely to use a debit card. The individuals with an above the mean myopia are more likely to use a debit card. This indicates that households that are more myopic are effectively using debit cards to control spending. Financial sophistication is also significantly related to debit card use. Households with more financial sophistication are less likely to use a debit card and the households in the lower levels of financial sophistication are more likely to use a debit card. Life cycle factors are also significant. Older households are less likely to use debit cards suggesting that older households do not adopt debit cards since they are a relatively new technology. The results between the debit card users and the revolving credit card users indicate that credit attitude is a determining factor of card use. The households with above average credit attitude are less likely to use debit cards signifying the households that are less willing to spend on credit generally use a debit card. This indicates that myopic revolving credit card users with a positive attitude toward credit would benefit from using a debit card. A similar logistic regression in Table 3.9 in Appendix II shows the results when credit attitude and myopia are formed into four groups. When compared to the below attitude/below myopia group, both above attitude/above myopia and above attitude/below myopia groups are less likely to use a debit card. These results indicate that above average (positive) credit attitude leads to less debit use compared to revolving 96 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 credit card use. Financial sophistication is also significantly related to debit card use. Those with the highest level of financial sophistication are less likely to use debit while those in the lowest levels of sophistication are more likely to use a debit card. This indicates that households have the financial knowledge to make informed decisions regarding the costs of debit and revolving a credit card but still pay the expenses associated with revolving the balance. Life cycle factors are also significant: generational cohort, gender, marital status, and the presence of children influence debit card and revolving credit card use. Based on the results between the debit card users and the convenience credit card users, above average myopia is statistically significant. The households with above average myopia are more likely to use a debit card. This indicates that households that are present oriented are wisely using debit card instead of using a credit card. Table 3.10 in Appendix II provides the results for the logistic regression that includes the four groups of attitude/myopia mix. Compared to the below attitude/below myopia group, both the above attitude/above myopia and below attitude/below myopia group are more likely to use a debit card. These results indicate that above average myopia leads to more debit use compared to convenience credit card use. Financial sophistication is also significant to debit card use. The households in the highest level of financial sophistication are less likely to use a debit card while the households in the lowest levels of financial sophistication are more likely to use a debit card. The convenience credit users have the financial knowledge to make informed decisions and use credit cards as a purchasing tool rather than a borrowing tool. 97 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 To further analyze the story of how myopia and credit attitude impact payment choice a logistic regression comparing revolving credit card users to convenience credit card users is presented in Appendix II Table 3.11 and Table 3.12. The households with above average credit attitude and myopia are more likely to be revolving users of credit. Financial sophistication is also significant in that the higher levels of financial sophistication (Quintile 1 and Quintile 2) are less likely to be revolving credit card users. However, the individuals in quintile 5 are more likely to be revolving credit card users. These findings suggest that individuals with above average attitude toward credit and myopia should use debit cards to avoid the costs of revolving a credit card. The findings are consistent with the theoretical framework. These results provide evidence to support the main hypothesis. Households that use debit cards exhibit an above average level of myopia but are mixed among attitude toward credit. Based on the results of this study, households that use debit cards tend to have lower human capital and therefore do not choose to take advantage of the benefits of a credit card like those households with higher financial human capital. The results show that older generations do not accept new technology like a debit card or there is an inertia factor where households will use the same payment method repeatedly. Households with less education and who are younger are more likely to use a debit card that is consistent with current literature (King & King, 2005; Hayashi & Stavins, 2012; Oliver Wyman, 2013). Similar to King and King (2005), many financial planners, educators, and therapists suggest that households should use credit in order to reap the benefits associated with credit cards including the float, rewards programs, and the potential build 98 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 a credit score. However, the results show that households with that are myopic should use debit cards in order to control spending. In order to know if consumers are better off using a debit card compared to a credit card, the costs and fees of using both cards are essential to know. Stango and Zinman (2009) use a unique data set that includes various fee information on households that have credit card and debit cards. The researchers find that the median household pays approximately $21 in credit card fees each month. These fees include interest paid for revolving a balance, late fees, over-limit fees, cash advance fees, annual fees, and other fees. The median household pays approximately $9 in checking account costs that include overdraft fees, ATM fees, and other fees (Stango & Zinman, 2009). Based on the findings from Stango and Zinman (2009), households that are myopic and have a positive attitude toward credit would be better off switching to debit cards rather than revolving a credit card balance. Financial planners, educators, and therapists play an important role in assisting households determine the most appropriate payment method. In addition to the fees and costs associated with using debit or credit, an individual’s level of myopia should be one factor to determine the payment method. Planners, educators, and therapists can help households increase their financial human capital and therefore improve the household’s financial decision-making ability. The results provide an extension of the current literature, but more research is necessary in the area of payment choice. The behavioral aspects of payment choice are particularly necessary especially if households use several payment methods. By 99 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 investigating credit attitude, myopia and the other factors that influence the choice between debit and credit, researchers can determine why households choose payment methods do not provide as much economic benefit as other payment options. 100 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Appendix I Principal Components Analysis and Factor Analysis An individual’s general tendency to succumb to needs and wants and overall credit attitude will impact their preferred payment method. Based on a dual-self framework, a household consists of a planner and doer. The planner is rational and concerned with lifetime utility and will impose rules to limit the doer. The doer thinks of only one period and succumbs to temptation easily. A household’s level of myopia, or the inability to defer gratification, is influential in the payment choice. In order to get a complete look on the behavioral factors that make up payment choice, it is necessary to create a measure of credit attitude and myopia. The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) has several variables that measure an individual’s attitude toward borrowing with credit as well as variables that measure an individual’s level of myopia. Previous literature often use various factors to measure an individual’s level of myopia. For example, smoking is often used as a measure of preference for the present (Robb, Huston, & Finke, 2008). Other sources use willing to borrow money to purchase a fur coat of jewelry, willing to borrow to cover living expenses, and savings habits as measures of a household’s ability to control consumption (Bertaut & Haliassos, 2002; Rha, Montalto, & Hanna, 2006). A principal component analysis is performed to identify variables to explain two components: credit attitude and myopia. Seven variables are used in the principal component analysis to create the two components. The analysis is conducted with the 101 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 SCF years 1998-2010 using only the first implicate. The sample size is 24,165 respondents. Given the 7 variables, the principal component analysis identifies 2 components with eigenvalues above 1.0, which is the threshold for significance according to the Kaiser-Guttman rule. Further analysis of the scree plot also shows that 2 components should be retained. The last step of the principal component analysis is to analyze the variables that load and label each component. The two components can be classified as credit attitude and myopia. The credit attitude component includes having a positive attitude about using credit, willing to borrow to go on vacation, willing to borrow to purchase luxury items like jewelry and furs, and willing to use credit to cover living expenses if there is a cut in income. The myopia component includes: spending exceeded income over the past year, savings habits are described as not saving and spending more or as much as income, and smoking. The final component loading is shown in Table 4.6. The variance explained by the principal component analysis is approximately 40.8%. 102 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.6: Final Component Loading for Credit Attitude and Myopia Spending exceeds or is equal to income Does not save since spending exceeds or equals income Smokes Has a positive attitude toward credit Willing to use credit to fund a vacation Willing to use credit to purchase furs or jewelry Willing to use credit to cover living expenses if income were cut Eigenvalue Proportion of total variance Component 1: Credit Attitude 0.28379 0.23194 Component 2: Myopia 0.14458 0.55361 0.70773 0.62619 0.40652 0.45953 -0.2438 -0.22274 -0.31721 0.21113 1.519976 0.180716 0.4085 0.6301 0.69052 After the principal component analysis, a principal factor analysis is conducted to confirm the latent concepts of credit attitude and myopia. Table 4.7 shows the final factor pattern for the two factors. Table 3.7: Factor Loading Credit Attitude Myopia Spending exceeds or is equal to income Does not save since spending exceeds or equals income 0.15524 0.14118 0.40811 0.54462 Smokes Has a positive attitude toward credit Willing to use credit to fund a vacation Willing to use credit to purchase furs or jewelry Willing to use credit to cover living expenses if income were cut 0.05877 0.3333 0.60723 0.45907 0.20476 0.21734 -0.0952 -0.1189 -0.1584 0.11527 103 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 With the two factors, two scores are calculated and groups are formed. For the credit attitude factor, two groups are created by finding the households with above the mean attitude and below the mean credit attitude. The same procedure is done with the myopia factor to create above the mean myopia and below the mean myopia. A further grouping is also conducted by combining the two groups of the two factors to create four. The four groups are: above the mean attitude/ above the mean myopia, above the mean attitude/below the mean myopia, below the mean attitude/above the mean myopia, and below the mean attitude/below the mean myopia. 104 Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Appendix II Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to All Credit Card Users Table 3.8: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to All Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=10,828) Parameter Estimate -2.5221 Intercept Attitude/Myopia Groups AM Attitude/ AM Myopia -0.116 AM Attitude/ BM Myopia -0.3684 BM Attitude/ AM Myopia 0.1541 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -3.2249 Quintile 2 0.0602 Quintile 4 0.7298 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 1.3877 Education Less than high school 0.1264 High School 0.1186 Some College 0.3259 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -2.7961 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.3306 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.1541 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.3862 Female -0.1063 Not Married 0.3971 Have children 0.3305 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 0.0817 $50,001-$75,000 0.2965 $75,001-$100,000 0.1344 Greater than $100,000 -0.8364 Net Worth Less than $10,000 1.3374 $10,001-$50,000 1.0841 $50,001-$100,000 0.6748 $100,001-$150,000 0.5154 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6394 Year 2004 1.4875 Year 2007 2.1691 Year 2010 3.4108 R2 0.4775 Adjusted R2 0.7038 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 105 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 *** 0.2451 0.0005 0.1088 0.89 0.692 1.167 <0.0001 0.5771 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.04 1.062 2.075 4.006 0.3276 0.2552 0.0023 1.135 1.126 1.385 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0412 0.1505 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.061 0.097 0.315 0.68 0.899 1.488 1.392 0.3722 0.0133 0.4114 <0.0001 1.085 1.345 1.144 0.433 *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0006 3.809 2.957 1.964 1.674 *** *** *** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.895 4.426 8.751 30.289 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** ** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users Table 3.9: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to Revolving Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=5,254) Parameter Estimate -0.9913 Intercept Attitude/Myopia Groups AM Attitude/ AM Myopia -0.4482 AM Attitude/ BM Myopia -0.6119 BM Attitude/ AM Myopia -0.0181 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -2.8875 Quintile 2 -0.0505 Quintile 4 0.4574 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 0.9825 Education Less than high school -0.0168 High School -0.0654 Some College 0.0681 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -2.0939 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.1343 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.2889 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.5394 Female -0.2036 Not Married 0.4338 Have children 0.2487 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 -0.0132 $50,001-$75,000 0.1067 $75,001-$100,000 -0.0558 Greater than $100,000 -0.6075 Net Worth Less than $10,000 0.892 $10,001-$50,000 0.66 $50,001-$100,000 0.2958 $100,001-$150,000 0.2067 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6068 Year 2004 1.4437 Year 2007 2.0994 Year 2010 3.469 R2 0.4438 Adjusted R2 0.5922 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 106 p Odds Ratio 0.0011 *** <0.0001 <0.0001 0.8657 0.639 0.542 0.982 *** *** <0.0001 0.6807 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.056 0.951 1.58 2.671 *** 0.906 0.5731 0.5672 0.983 0.937 1.07 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.016 0.0122 <0.0001 0.004 0.123 0.118 0.276 0.583 0.816 1.543 1.282 *** *** *** ** ** *** *** 0.8955 0.4183 0.7535 0.001 0.987 1.113 0.946 0.545 *** <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0367 0.2099 2.44 1.935 1.344 1.23 *** *** ** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.835 4.236 8.161 32.103 *** *** *** *** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Logistic Regression: Debit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users Table 3.10: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Debit Card User Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=8,332) Parameter Estimate -2.5088 Intercept Attitude/Myopia Groups AM Attitude/ AM Myopia 0.4437 AM Attitude/ BM Myopia -0.1367 BM Attitude/ AM Myopia 0.4034 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -3.5461 Quintile 2 0.1011 Quintile 4 1.0156 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 2.0975 Education Less than high school 0.2169 High School 0.2503 Some College 0.6025 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -3.4667 Silent Generation (1926-1945) -2.5834 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) -1.0786 Generation X (1965-1980) -0.2025 Female 0.055 Not Married 0.3251 Have children 0.6028 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 0.3282 $50,001-$75,000 0.5973 $75,001-$100,000 0.2915 Greater than $100,000 -0.8632 Net Worth Less than $10,000 2.0645 $10,001-$50,000 1.5867 $50,001-$100,000 0.9693 $100,001-$150,000 0.827 Survey Year Year 2001 0.6815 Year 2004 1.3812 Year 2007 2.0832 Year 2010 3.2243 R2 0.6012 Adjusted R2 0.8361 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 107 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 *** 0.0042 0.3375 0.0021 1.558 0.872 1.497 *** <0.0001 0.4594 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.029 1.106 2.761 8.146 *** 0.2206 0.0665 <0.0001 1.242 1.284 1.827 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0002 0.4985 0.5842 0.0036 <0.0001 0.031 0.076 0.34 0.817 1.057 1.384 1.827 *** *** *** 0.0147 0.0003 0.1723 <0.0001 1.388 1.817 1.338 0.422 ** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 7.881 4.888 2.636 2.286 *** *** *** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.977 3.98 8.03 25.137 *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Logistic Regression: Revolving Credit Card Users Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users Table 3.11: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of Being a Revolving Credit Card User Compared to a Convenience Credit Card User in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=8,070) Parameter Estimate -1.9323 Intercept Credit Attitude Above Mean Attitude 0.7939 Myopia Above Mean Myopia 0.4845 Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) -0.8319 Quintile 2 -0.2207 Quintile 4 0.175 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) 0.3606 Education Less than high school 0.3729 High School 0.4908 Some College 0.5812 Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) -0.8398 Silent Generation (1926-1945) 0.1605 Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) 0.8095 Generation X (1965-1980) 0.7808 Female 0.262 Not Married -0.1749 Have children 0.2658 Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 0.3509 $50,001-$75,000 0.4773 $75,001-$100,000 0.6364 Greater than $100,000 -0.3591 Net Worth Less than $10,000 1.521 $10,001-$50,000 1.2334 $50,001-$100,000 0.9466 $100,001-$150,000 0.8175 Survey Year Year 2001 -0.1445 Year 2004 -0.2011 Year 2007 -0.069 Year 2010 -0.4538 R2 0.2889 Adjusted R2 0.407 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 108 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 *** <0.0001 2.212 *** <0.0001 1.623 *** <0.0001 0.0159 0.1073 0.0058 0.435 0.802 1.191 1.434 *** ** 0.0028 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.452 1.634 1.788 *** *** *** 0.0157 0.628 0.014 0.0191 <0.0001 0.0172 0.0001 0.432 1.174 2.247 2.183 1.3 0.84 1.304 ** ** ** *** ** *** 0.0009 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0043 1.42 1.612 1.89 0.698 *** *** *** *** <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 4.577 3.433 2.577 2.265 *** *** *** *** 0.0718 0.0227 0.4649 <0.0001 0.865 0.818 0.933 0.635 * ** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 Table 3.12: Logistic Regression of the Likelihood of being a Revolving Credit Card User Compared to Convenience Credit Card Users in the SCF between 1998-2010 (n=8,070) Intercept Attitude/Myopia Groups AM Attitude/ AM Myopia AM Attitude/ BM Myopia BM Attitude/ AM Myopia Human Capital Financial Sophistication Quintile 1 (most sophisticated) Quintile 2 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 (least sophisticated) Education Less than high school High School Some College Life-cycle Factors Generational Cohort Greatest Generation (1900-1925) Silent Generation (1926-1945) Baby Boomer Generation (1946-1964) Generation X (1965-1980) Female Not Married Have children Finances Income $25,001-$50,000 $50,001-$75,000 $75,001-$100,000 Greater than $100,000 Net Worth Less than $10,000 $10,001-$50,000 $50,001-$100,000 $100,001-$150,000 Survey Year Year 2001 Year 2004 Year 2007 Year 2010 R2 Adjusted R2 *Significant at 0.10; **significant at 0.05; ***significant at 0.01. 109 Parameter Estimate -1.9314 p Odds Ratio <0.0001 1.2818 0.7911 0.4806 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 3.603 2.206 1.617 *** *** *** -0.832 -0.2207 0.1748 0.3603 <0.0001 0.0159 0.108 0.0058 0.435 0.802 1.191 1.434 *** ** 0.373 0.4908 0.5814 0.0028 <0.0001 <0.0001 1.452 1.634 1.789 *** *** *** -0.8399 0.1602 0.8092 0.7804 0.262 -0.1747 0.2659 0.0157 0.6287 0.014 0.0191 <0.0001 0.0173 0.0001 0.432 1.174 2.246 2.182 1.299 0.84 1.305 ** ** ** *** ** *** 0.3509 0.4775 0.6366 -0.3589 0.0009 <0.0001 <0.0001 0.0043 1.42 1.612 1.89 0.698 *** *** *** *** 1.5211 1.2336 0.9467 0.8176 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 4.577 3.433 2.577 2.265 *** *** *** *** -0.1444 -0.2011 -0.069 -0.4539 0.2889 0.407 0.072 0.0227 0.4647 <0.0001 0.866 0.818 0.933 0.635 * ** *** *** *** Texas Tech University, Laura Ricaldi, August 2015 References Ameriks, J., Caplin, A., Leahy, J., & Tyler, T. 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