DOES SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE TRANSLATE TO OFFLINE VOTING AND
CIVIC ENGAGEMENT?
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A Thesis
Presented to the Faculty in Communication and Leadership Studies
School of Professional Studies
Gonzaga University
_____________________________________________________
Under the Supervision of Dr. Carolyn Cunningham
Under the Mentorship of Kristina Morehouse
_____________________________________________________
In Partial Fulfillment
Of the Requirements for the Degree
Master of Arts in Communication and Leadership Studies
_____________________________________________________
By
Sara Cureton
December 2012
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ABSTRACT
One of the most important objectives of media is to provide citizens with the information they need
to make informed decisions. Based on the theory of technological determinism by scholars such as
Marshall McLuhan, the innovations of a society are driven by its technology, so the widely-used
medium of social media has been found to have a growing influence in civic matters. This thesis
examined how social media usage impacted offline civic engagement. Through an analysis of a
sample of 49 political candidates' Facebook and Twitter activity, this study questioned whether
social media impacted the outcome of the 2012 General Election. Additionally, how people use
social media can translate to how they behave and engage in society offline. Uses and gratifications
theory states that users of media are active participants and not just left impressionable by the
message. Through survey research with 72 respondents, this study also analyzed how citizens'
online behavior influenced their offline civic engagement in areas such as voting turnout, campaign
volunteerism and monetary donations. The study and accompanying survey add much-needed
research in the new but increasingly relevant research area of social media civic engagement.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................4
Importance of the Study..........................................................................................................................................4
Statement of Purpose…………………………………………………………………………………………….…………4
Definition of Terms Used........................................................................................................................................5
Organization of Remaining Chapters.................................................................................................................6
CHAPTER 2: Literature Review............................................................................................................................................7
Philosophical Assumptions....................................................................................................................................7
Uses and Gratifications............................................................................................................................................8
Technological Determinism................................................................................................................................12
Summary................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Research Questions................................................................................................................................................19
CHAPTER 3: Scope and Methodology.............................................................................................................................20
CHAPTER 4: The Study....................................................................................................................................................... 23
Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................23
Data Analysis.............................................................................................................................................................23
Results..........................................................................................................................................................................28
Discussion...................................................................................................................................................................28
CHAPTER 5: Summaries & Conclusions........................................................................................................................30
Limitations of the Study.......................................................................................................................................30
Recommendations for Further Study............................................................................................................30
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................31
Bibliography.............................................................................................................................................................................32
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Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION
Importance of the Study
One of the noblest objectives news media and communication technologies strive
toward is helping citizens make better, more informed choices. As information has gone
online, the advent of social media has blurred the line of socializing, information-seeking,
media consumption and entertainment. Identifying trends in social media usage may be
useful in future marketing and/or collection of important data within the global
community.
With more than one billion Facebook users, it is a significant communication tool
with implications for marketing, interpersonal relationships, and of course, civic
engagement matters. There is also limited research in the area of social media’s impact on
our political involvement. Using social media as a civic engagement tool is an effective way
to deliver information regarding community issues, political party and candidates. The
information gathered online has the capacity to impact policy locally and globally. There is
a lot of research that examines a movement of our communications and interactions
moving toward technology, but this study provides a glimpse into the events happening
online translating back to tangible, measurable offline events.
Statement of Purpose
The purpose of the study is to closer examine social media as a tool for predicting
civic engagement behaviors among users as well as election outcomes of candidates with a
social media presence.
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Definitions of Terms Used
Social media: first used in 2004, describes forms of electronic communication, such as
Web sites for social networking and microblogging, through which users create online
communities to share information, ideas, personal messages, and other content, such as
videos. (Merriam-Webster).
Civic engagement: not only a set of actions and efforts, but a feeling of belonging,
an experience of investment and ownership in the local, regional, national, and /or
international political communities to which citizens belong. According to the New York
Times, "civic engagement means working to make a difference in the civic life of our
communities and developing the combination of knowledge, skills, values and
motivation to make that difference” (Reference.com).
Uses and gratifications theory: Blumler and Katz’s (1973) uses and gratification theory
suggests that media users play an active role in choosing and using the media. Users take
an active part in the communication process and are goal oriented in their media use
Technological determinism: theory stating that media technology shapes how we as
individuals in a society think, feel, act, and how our society operates as we move from one
technological age to another.
Online: a state of connectivity as it pertains to computer technology and
telecommunications.
Offline: a disconnected state as it pertains to computer technology and
telecommunications.
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Organization of Remaining Chapters
In the following thesis, Chapter 2 provides a review of literature and philosophy as
it applies to technological determinism and uses and gratifications in social media that led
to two research questions about social media and civic engagement. Additionally, the scope
and methodology of a quantitative study and voluntary survey is provided in Chapter 3.
Chapter 4 includes a detailed account of the results from both avenues of research. In
Chapter 5, the thesis is concluded with an overview of research limitations and
recommendations for further studies.
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Chapter 2: Literature Review
One of the most important roles of mass communication is to provide citizens with
the tools they need to make informed decisions. The advent of social media has taken that
particular role to viral proportions. As this work will be examining the correlation between
online engagement and official election results, many pieces of published work support
uses and gratifications and technological determinism. These driving theories, when
applied to Internet and social media use, defend the predicted outcome that he or she with
the largest online following will emerge the winner of a popular vote and also see greater
volunteer turnout and campaign support.
Philosophical Assumptions
According to the philosophical assumptions of cyberspace as researched by Samuel
Ebersole (1995), there are many mentions of global community. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz,
an 18th century philosopher of technology and mathematician, sought political and
religious unity in Europe. He introduced the concept of a “community of minds” and a
universal language. Centuries later, the concept of global community was continued by
Marshall McLuhan, whose divine force theory spoke to technology’s power to be a
universal tool of unity.
Within the school of thought held by technological determinists such as McLuhan, et
al., the advances in technology are responsible for the advances in society and culture
overall (Ebersole, 1995). Philosopher Carl Mitcham concluded that the origins of
technological assumptions date back to the 1600s.
“The attempt by Francis Bacon...to turn human attention toward technology and to
invest human energy in its pursuit, in preference to politics and philosophy (not to
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mention religion and poetry), was itself undertaken by philosophical and rhetorical
means. It was, we might say, the humanities that conceived technology-especially
modern technology-not technology that conceived the humanities. (Mitcham, 1994,
p. 39)
Overall, the consensus among philosophers and researchers spanning centuries
seem to be in agreement that technology has unlimited power as a societal tool and it holds
implications of a political nature. In line with the technological determinism school of
thought, technology is far-reaching, ever-expanding and the precursor to positive social
change.
Uses and Gratifications
A theory stemming from both communication and psychological schools of thought,
uses and gratifications looks at mass media usage in terms of “individuals [selecting] media
and content to fulfill felt needs or wants” (Stacks & Salwen, 1996, p. 137). The Internet is
not just a means for sharing information, but a medium that allows for engaging,
commenting, debating with peers and fellow newsreaders in a somewhat safe haven for
expressing political opinions. Additionally, uses and gratifications is important for studying
Internet communication because how people use social media can reflect how they conduct
themselves offline.
Uses and gratifications theory certainly applies to the Internet because it allows for
two-way communication in a way that other mediums limit. In a survey conducted by
Barbara Kaye and Thomas Johnson around the time of the 1996 presidential election, the
researchers found that “strength of party affiliation, likelihood of voting, political interest,
trust in government, and feelings of self-efficacy were correlated with each of the Web
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factors then used to predict Internet gratifications” (Kaye & Johnson, 2004, p. 60). The
Internet made a leap from merely entertainment to a source of information when it was
found that “it may also gratify users’ needs to find information about some feature of
society or the world around them” (Kaye & Johnson, 2004, p. 56). As it has been illustrated
in later elections, these gratifications have only grown.
In an article titled “MySpace politics: Uses and gratifications of befriending
candidates” from 2009, a survey showed that “visitors to the MySpace profiles of 2008
primary candidates revealed that voters are drawn to this source of political information
mainly by the desire for social interaction with other like-minded supporters, followed by
information-seeking, and entertainment” (Ancu & Cozma, 2009, p. 567). The action of
moving the political discussion to a social media setting illustrates uses and gratifications
because it creates a network of people that support and validate one’s beliefs and views
without the confrontation that may happen offline. Social media facilitates a cultural
dialogue with the safety net of anonymity but also the strength in numbers.
As social media has become a more prevalent means to engage in the political
conversation, it is no surprise, then, that recent elections have seen a skyrocketing number
of youth voters. It is not coincidental that young people also represent the biggest
population of social media users. In an article titled “Rewriting the script: toward a politics
of young people’s digital media participation,” author Catherine Burwell (2010) makes the
case that this online engagement has created “community”:
Words like ‘‘participation,’’ ‘‘participatory culture,’’ and ‘‘interactivity’’ have entered
the popular lexicon laden with promises. Marketers of interactive technologies offer
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limitless entertainment choices, and breathless copy claims that the Web 2.0—
epitomized by sites such as YouTube and Facebook—will create community,
empower users, and revolutionize communication. (p. 382)
Also in this article, Burwell’s (2010) “new, participatory culture” is one in which the users
of media—the audience—can participate in the production of media by acting as “citizen
journalists, bloggers, game designers, and video artists” (p. 382).
A number of online activities are propelling civic engagement. This is shown in a
number of ways between Tobias Olsson’s (2008) article which shows how producers of
civic Web pages target youth and Scheuerell’s (2008) article that shows the “teaching
opportunity” that exists specifically for young people. Olsson concentrates on research into
how the Internet’s content producers take advantage of technology to create political
engagement opportunities (p. 497). Scheuerell, who looks at Gallup polling as a scientific
classroom tool, states that “often, there is a misconception that technology—such as the
Internet—will magically teach students. However, if used appropriately in the classroom,
the Internet can enable students to think critically about issues in social studies” (p. 182).
In comparing the two related pieces, both papers are too specifically targeted at youth. The
role of the internet to encourage users toward civic engagement should not be seen as agespecific. Voters of all ages have embraced technology as a means of gathering and sharing
news and information, but also as a means to register to vote, donate money to campaigns,
sign petitions and find local meetups such as debate watch parties.
While there is a lot of information being dispensed online in a number of different
ways, the Internet can in some ways make personal and specialized. In our wired society,
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research suggests that candidates need a strong online presence and following to secure
their victory. In an article titled “Web 2.0 and Politics: The 2008 Presidential Election and
e-Politics Research Agenda,” Sunil Wattal (2010) examined politicking on the Internet and
its potential to be a game changer. With record fundraising largely attributed to online
contributions and spreading access from ‘place to space,’ allowing anyone with Web access
to contribute from any location, it is apparent that Internet savvy did not hurt both of
Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns which initially secured his spot in the White House
and will keep him there for another term.
Wattal’s (2010) research concluded that the Internet may foster a new generation of
politicians who ignore traditional “big money” tactics in favor of grassroots campaigns. In
fact, strength in numbers may be the only way to combat the Super Political Action
Committees. “Just as the Internet has reduced the barriers to entry in many industries, it
may also serve to level the playing field for candidates” (Wattal, 2010, p. 683). The media
industry, political consultants, candidates, and voters will need to adjust their behaviors to
leverage this new competitive environment.
Social networking and grassroots efforts have put the tools to civically engage on a
large scale in the hands of every citizen. Jaeho Kang (2010) examined civic engagement and
includes examples of effective protest.
Since the late 1990s, diverse forms of social media have been engaged in social
movements and election campaigns across the globe. Notable examples include: the
initial utilization of mobile phones during the anti-globalization demonstration in
Seattle in 1999; the enthusiastic employment of Facebook by Barack Obama’s
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election strategists during the presidential election in 2008; and the promulgation
through Twitter and YouTube of demonstrations in the wake of the 2009 Iranian
elections.” (Kang, 2010, p. 2)
Ji-Young Kim (2006) devoted his research to examining “virtual social capital” and
argued that the Internet alone cannot facilitate civic engagement. “Online community
engagement is not likely to yield any significant effect in enhancing political participation
unless community members are involved in politically relevant activities” (p. 35). The
survey planned in correlation with this thesis research will look at offline activities such as
volunteerism and financial contributions to campaigns.
Technological Determinism
Technological Determinism states that “media technology shapes how we as
individuals in a society think, feel, act, and how are society operates as we move from one
technological age to another” (University of Kentucky, 2001). The means of communication
used by a people drives the message. Technological determinism assumes that
“technologies are the primary cause of major social and historical changes at the
macrosocial level of societal structures and processes and subtle but profound social and
psychological influences at the microsocial level of the regular use of particular kinds of
tools” (Thurlow, Lengel & Tomic, 2004, p. 40). Technological determinism also “presents
technological ‘progress’ as unstoppable, inevitable and irreversible” (p. 41). As this applies
to modern communication and the ever-changing landscape of media in civic matters,
technological determinism can be an ideal theory to represent a more politically-active
populous. As technology becomes easier to use and more accessible, and the content of
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social media becomes more civically-driven, civic engagement has become somewhat more
normalized whereas politics has historically been taboo conversation.
In 2004, Philip Agre published “Real-time politics: The Internet and the political
process,” which describes the Internet as an “amplification model” where ideas are
collected, organized and shared as a means of problem-solving and an integral part of
democracy. The author makes several proposals to support the claims of technological
determinism. “Voting is a central ritual of democracy, as well as a process of information
capture and aggregation, so it seems natural to use digital networks to facilitate the voting
process” (Agre, 2004, p. 313). This information collection, driven by the user in one
medium, supports the concept of global community stated in the philosophy of cyberspace.
Additionally, Agre proposed that the Internet “largely dictates the direction of public policy
by creating the conditions for a decentralized global market” (Agre, 2004, p. 313).
The appeal of MySpace, Facebook, and other social networking sites made its
strongest impact in 2008, where candidates across every party created profile pages and
allowed their supporters to “like” them publicly before ever casting a vote. Debates held on
YouTube, the influence of social media, news aggregation sites and campaign pages
ultimately shaped the outcome of very heated, sometimes close, race. As a result of this
newfound information arena, the last American presidential election saw a larger turnout
of voters than ever before. According to researchers R. Kelly Garrett and James Danziger
(2011), two-thirds of voters sought online information leading up to Election Day, while
half of Americans rely on the websites associated with a major news organization (p. 117).
An article titled “Civil society and cyber society: The role of the internet in
community associations and democratic politics” illustrated a closer look at online and
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offline behaviors as they applied to politics and community, and found “Internet-mediated
activities are not simply an extension of offline political practices, but appear to be a
distinct, although socially embedded, medium in which political behavior takes place”
(Jensen, Danziger & Venkatesh, 2007, p. 39). The authors also discovered that
socioeconomic factors played less of a role in online political engagement than its offline
counterpart, again illustrating how the Internet can expand access to the bigger
conversation, where people may not have had a voice before. The authors concluded that
additional research is needed to examine the nature of online political discussions in terms
of the role they play in opinion formation for members of the political community. “In
exploring such research issues, we will enhance our understanding of how cyber society
might influence both our modes of democratic engagement and also the dialogue of
governance between the political community and the authorities” (Jensen, Danziger &
Venkatesh, 2007, p. 47).
An examination of the works by Marshall McLuhan by Gordon Gow (2010)
reinforces McLuhan’s theorization on technology’s impact on modern culture. Gow (2010)
states that “transformational theorists regard media as environmental forces that set a
context, thereby shaping ‘the scale and form of human association and action’” (p. 21). In
2011, an article titled “Internet use and political participation: Reflections on the
Mobilization/Normalization controversy” researchers published a study examining
political Internet use and two schools of thought were born. One is that Internet use can
mobilize political participation due to the array of resources available electronically. The
other suggests that the political tools “are mainly used by engaged and active citizens, uses
that tend to normalize political participation” (Hirzalla, van Zoonen & de Ridder, 2011, p.
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1). The theories around mobilization speak to the Internet becoming a political playground
for any and all users almost as if that is the sole purpose of the online medium. In the 2011
study, those arguing normalization theories make the case that tools are “resources” for
those people already politically engaged (Hirzalla, van Zoonen & de Ridder, p. 2-3).
In the article “Size and e-democracy: Online participation in Norwegian local
politics,” Jo Saglie and Signy Irene Vabo (2009) studied municipal e-participation in
Norway, including politicians and citizens. Their data reflects that “conventional predictors
of offline participation also influence online participation, but the Internet encourages
more activity among young people” (p. 382).
As the state of electronic communication affairs vary across the world, other
cultures expand upon the scope in which the Internet can be involved in the political
process. In the article “Cultural politics and political culture of Web 2.0 in Asia,” the
researcher examines arguments that “instead of employing a crude technological
determinism, it might be more useful to study the myriad ways in which both the internet
and local cultures influence each other and contribute to the creation of new forms of
techno-cultures and technosocieties” (Herold, 2009, p. 89).
A number of articles illustrate the state of Internet-based civic information outside
the United States and show that other nations are making some advances, but are still
lacking the sophistication seen domestically. In the article titled “Technology’s role in
revolution: Internet freedom and political oppression,” the existence of Facebook and
Twitter are described as irrelevant in Cuba. “Fidel Castro’s Twitter page has been around
for a few years, but very few people in Cuba own computers, because the Cuban
government restricted the sale of computers to its population, so most of them just don’t
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have the equipment to tweet” (Morozov, 2011, p. 19). While there is a small blogger
presence and the government has increased some access to Internet, there is no change
seen in Cuba’s information technology for the next decade.
In Thailand, the advent of the Internet has taken away the geographical limitations
of political participation. Despite surveillance and censorship being an issue, social media
and blogs have allowed citizens to still access important information on the state of
national affairs. “The speed at which the users are able to respond to current events offers
content creation which provides different information from what we could see and hear in
traditional media that was strictly controlled by the government” (Bunyavejchewin, 2010,
p. 69).
The research around technological determinism as it applies to the Internet’s role in
the political process has been seen in a positive light. As Yanuar Nugroho (2008) described
in “Adopting technology, transforming society: the Internet and the reshaping of civil
society activism in Indonesia,” there needs to be a counterargument. “Unless [these
studies] are aware that an opposite and pessimistic view of the Internet and civil society
exist, not only will the analysis suffer from utopian bias, but the study will also fail to
recognize the explanation beyond the utopian-dystopian debate on the Internet and civil
society” (p. 81).
While many aspects of a tech-enabled electorate illustrate a favor toward younger
voters, the 2011 article titled “Technology, media, and political participation” (2001)
speaks to an increase in the minority vote, thanks to the internet and cell phone activity.
Research suggests that online and tech-enabled outreach allows more specific targeting of
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media’s messaging. “Political campaigns have proven the power of these new tools to
organize and mobilize voters” (McGrath, 2009, p. 42-43).
In the article “Subactivism: Lifeworld and politics in the age of the Internet,” Maria
Bakardjieva (2009) made a case for the Internet as having the “potential of the Internet
that casts light on facets of democracy located outside of the visible arena of politics,
typically occupied by campaigning, voting, assemblies, and organized action in the street or
the media” (p. 91-92). The term “subactivism” is defined as “small-scale, often individual
decisions and actions that have either a political or ethical frame of reference (or both) and
remain submerged in everyday life.
Whether the Internet is the vehicle for or the road that civic engagement travels on,
this study supports technological determinism to explain social media activity predicting
election results.
Summary
The research both nationally and abroad paint a picture of citizens empowered in
their political choices and expression through use of the Internet. Whether it is to engage
with candidates and those who share ideology or to fuel a protest, it is clear that any given
democracy can benefit from embracing the Internet. The research examined in this work
spans decades and shows that the use and demand of web-based civic information is
growing. It is the goal of this thesis to measure to what extent the use can predict certain
behaviors and outcomes.
For anyone partaking in civic matters or watching and waiting for local and national
political plots to unfold, the Internet has been an invaluable innovation. Media and mass
communication is to inform users to make the most informed choices they can in their daily
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lives. The stakes are never higher than when it comes to taking a side on an election ballot.
As the paths of communication and civic matters cross, it is assumed that the information
Internet and social media users seek will satisfy the uses and gratifications theory. “Overall,
the number one use of the Internet for political purposes is information
seeking/surveillance” (Anzu & Cozma, 2009, p. 569). How users engage with politicians
through social media should illustrate what happens offline at the polls as well. It is
predicted that this thesis will show the candidates with the most followers in social media
will claim victory on Election Night.
Within the theory of technological determinism, it is justified that technology
continuously advances the medium in which communication is carried out. “Whatever
society as a whole is using to communicate, they too will use to communicate. Therefore,
[society] will adapt to the medium they are using so that they can send and receive
messages like everyone else” (University of Kentucky, 2001, p. 1). As the Internet has
evolved to be a political tool, it has changed a number of civic processes. One can register to
vote online, make a financial contribution to a candidate, stream news and debate coverage
and engage with like-minded individuals.
Research Questions
Considering the aforementioned research, the role Internet and media and its
importance in everyday citizenship, the purpose of this thesis is to gather quantitative data
that shows theses theories working together. By examining social media activity of
candidates and their supporters online and comparing those activities with real world
outcomes in official elections, the research examines the importance of the internet in
campaigns. By comparing candidates’ online support and number of verified votes, it may
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be determined that a popular vote is decided before the polls open on Election night. Also,
by surveying the people using social media as a means of political engagement, research
will show to what degree online supporters are engaged in the political effort offline.
Research Question 1: How does the uses and gratifications of social media compare
to offline civic engagement?
Research Question 2: What is the relationship between a candidate’s social media
presence and election outcome?
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Chapter 3. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
Scope
Given what the aforementioned literature states about the internet and its impact
on society and communications, the scope of research includes a study of candidate data
and survey of social media users who are registered voters. In an effort to find a pattern in
social media activity and civic engagement, the research includes data from 49 political
races in the 2012 general election and the social media pages of Facebook and Twitter.
These races include the offices of Senate, House of Representatives, Governor and
President. While the data is limited as it includes just 49 races and not all elections held in
2012, it is a sizeable sample as these races were chosen randomly with no specific regard
to political party, but an effort was made to include a geographically diverse picture from
Alaska to Arizona.
Methodology
The methods of research were chosen to examine actions that were happening in
real time as election activities unfolded. First, data was collected from Facebook pages and
Twitter feeds of the candidates in 49 races to determine the number of “likes” and
“followers” the candidates had before the election was held. Based on the outcomes in each
election, the data will show whether social media-based engagement with candidates can
predict the outcome of the election itself in way of offline civic engagement by generating
popular vote. This analysis will attempt to answer the research question: What is the
relationship between a candidate’s social media presence and election outcome? To
complement the specific data and patterns emerging from social media usage, a
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quantitative survey was opened to Facebook and Twitter users who self-identify as over 18
years old and registered voters. The survey questions are as follows:









Are you a registered voter?
Do you "like" any political candidates on Facebook
Do you "follow" any political candidates on Twitter?
Have you voted for a candidate that you "like" on Facebook?
Have you voted for a candidate that you "follow" on Twitter?
Have you volunteered for a candidate you "like" on Facebook?
Have you volunteered for a candidate you "follow" on Twitter?
Have you donated money to a candidate you "like" on Facebook?
Have you donated money to a candidate you "follow" on Twitter
Additionally, the survey asks age, political party affiliation and gender to see what
type of demographic-specific trends can be identified. For example, do people who “like”
their candidate also become engaged in other aspects of the campaign, such as volunteering
time or donating money? Or do people who do not “follow” on Twitter refrain from other
forms of support?
Uses and gratifications theory assumes that the media audience is active and social
media sites work only because of users’ active participation and engagement (Kaye &
Johnson, 2012, p. 55). As social media users seek information on political figures in way of
‘likes’ on Facebook or ‘follows’ on Twitter, the goal of the survey is to determine how likely
such engagement translates to actual voting for a candidate or offline support in way of
monetary donations or volunteerism. Additionally, the data collected from the survey
includes specific demographic information that may identify trends among politicallyengaged social media users.
Ethical Considerations
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In the survey circulated for this work, human participants voluntarily contributed
responses and those responses were untraceable due to the technological means of
distribution and therefore completely anonymous.
Internal and External Validity & Reliability
The voluntary survey was created using a Google Docs form application. While
survey responses were timestamped, no other distinguishing demographic information
from participants was collected. Because the survey examined how online social media
engagement impacted offline results such as voter turnout and volunteerism, the survey
was posed only to those already using social media and not to random subjects. Because
this work reflects uses and gratifications of social media and also technological
determinism at work, an accurate sample would not have been obtained by circulating a
survey in any other means.
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Chapter 4. THE STUDY
Introduction
The examination of social media activity of candidates prior to Election Day
provided quantitative data that was time-sensitive. Post-election, it is possible that the
elected official would garner more ‘likes’ and ‘follows’ just due to their newfound
incumbent status and sudden newsworthiness. Additionally, the survey of social media
users was open for the week after the 2012 General Election to ensure quality results and
accuracy of the data.
Data Analysis
Election Data
Of the 49 competitive races in the 2012 General Election tracked for the sake of this
research, three elections remain undecided or results were still pending at the time of
print. Of those declared the winner, 28 winners, or 60 percent of the decided races, had
more ‘likes’ on Facebook than their opponent. In 33 of the races, or 71 percent, the winner
had more Twitter ‘followers’ than their opponents. The most consistent trend comes from
the candidates who had both the most likes on Facebook and the most followers on
Twitter. In that condition, those candidates—in 24 of the 49 races— won their election 100
percent of the time.
The following table illustrates the 49 races included in the survey:
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The 2012 presidential race received worldwide attention, but before President
Barack Obama claimed victory for his second term with a three-percent, five million vote
advantage (Seib, 2012), social media reflected Obama’s popularity over Mitt Romney by
more than 10 million Facebook ‘likes’ and 11 million Twitter ‘followers’. In Ohio’s Senate
race, Sherrod Brown, who had nearly 50,000 more ‘likes’ on Facebook and 8,000 more
‘followers’ on Twitter than his opponent Josh Mandel, won the election with an estimated
58 percent of the vote (Atassi, 2012). This illustrates technological determinism as the
current medium of communication illustrated specifically what happened in live society.
Survey
The survey was posted to Facebook and Twitter users for a week after the 2012
General Election. A total of 72 respondents completed the survey and all questions were
answered by all participants. The age range of survey respondents was 19 to 71 and
included 56 women and 16 men. As far as political party affiliation identification, 51 survey
participants identified as Democrat; 10 Independent; 8 Republican; 1 Green; 1 Libertarian;
and 1 other. While the survey was opened to Facebook and Twitter users with no bias of
party affiliation, the lack of diversity in this survey sample would suggest that Democrats
are more inclined to engage in social media interaction with political candidates.
While all survey respondents were users of Facebook and/or Twitter, 45 individuals
(62%) ‘like’ a candidate on Facebook and 29 (40%) ‘follow’ a candidate on Twitter while 24
(33%) engage in both social media activities. Of those 45 respondents who ‘like’ candidates
on Facebook, 42 (95%) also voted for a candidate, 21 (47%) volunteered for a candidate
and 25 (57%) donated money to a candidate. Of those 29 survey respondents who ‘follow’
a candidate on Twitter, 28 (98%) of those also voted for a candidate, 17 (59%) volunteered
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for a candidate and 17 (59%) donated money to a candidate. A total of 13 of the 72 (18%)
engaged in all activities.
Results
Facebook may have seen more ‘likes,’ but Twitter ‘followers’ seem more likely to
vote, volunteer and donate money to a candidate. Overall, social media users who have
‘liked’ and ‘followed’ candidates are also civically engaged offline. In regards to ‘likes’ and
‘follows’ translating to votes, the survey data supports the election data in that online
activity is predictive of offline results.
Discussion
The conclusions garnished from the proceeding research are consistent with the
work of internationally renowned communication research organizations. The Pew
Internet and American Life Project, a project of the Pew Research Center, found that while
60% of adult Americans use Facebook and/or Twitter, 66% of those social media users
have engaged in civic activities through one or both mediums (Pew Research Center, 2012).
Through the uses and gratifications of social media, measurable outcomes of civic
engagement can be created. The Knight Foundation, which promotes quality journalism,
media innovation and the arts, believes that “democracy thrives when people and
communities are informed and engaged” (Knight Foundation, 2012). The Foundation’s
Commission on the Information Needs of Communities in a Democracy research
recommends Americans to “embrace the quality of information flow as an issue worthy of
their concern and involvement” (Knight Foundation, 2009, p. 63). The influence of
technology on society is undeniable and the importance of technology-driven
communication has become crucial to civic matters, which complements the assumptions
30
stemming from technological determinism. The advent of social media places information
and access to social interaction in the palm of a hand. It is assumed that people are taking in
more information overall and at a more rapid pace. The information they seek and how
they use it has also evolved. As people are able to use the Internet in a number of new
ways, sources of information are of utmost concern. With unlimited resources, quantity
may sacrifice quality. If one is to use the internet to retrieve information pertinent for
making weighted decisions, decisions stemming from said information may be more
superficial. To support the uses and gratifications theory, the Knight Commission
established that “digital users expect to own the information, actively engaging with it,
responding, connecting” (p. I) rather than just receiving messages from media passively,
which is illustrated by the data collected from the 49 elections and the correlating
candidates.
31
Chapter 5: SUMMARIES AND CONCLUSIONS
Social media interaction with candidates can be an accurate predictor of election
results when candidates have more ‘likes’ and ‘followers’ than their opponents.
Additionally, a large percentage of people who use social media to demonstrate their
support of a candidate are inclined to donate time and money as well. Twitter may be a
more reliable indicator and/or predictor of these trends and behaviors.
Limitations of the Study
As data from the election results can be easily explained when winning candidates
had more ‘likes’ and ‘followers’ than their opponent– this illustrates a simple popularity
contest –the races in which the less popular candidate declared victory require
explanation. Neither the election data nor the survey research was designed to examine a
specific political party. Additionally, no consideration was given to whether or not social
media trends impact incumbent candidates differently than first-time candidates.
While the data reflects the level of civic engagement online and offline for those
using Facebook and Twitter, the current survey did not poll traditional volunteers. To
illustrate the full spectrum of offline civic engagement, a survey should be taken of
volunteers to see to what volume volunteers also ‘like’ and ‘follow’ their candidates. A
comparison of both types of studies may be able to show if social media is a catalyst for
civic engagement or if it is supplemental for those already engaged.
Recommendations for Further Study
32
Research and data on social media is still limited as the technology is new and everevolving. Also, the number of social media users climbs on a daily basis. Because new
technology may not be consistent in every area—or even readily available—a study in
social media use as well as voter turnout by geographical location may show information
that will predict future trends.
Conclusions
Comparing Facebook and Twitter users’ offline civic engagement side by side, the
data suggests that candidates with the more ‘followers’ on Twitter are more likely to win
an election and people who ‘follow’ candidates are more apt to be more engaged with the
candidate/campaign offline as well. While Facebook has nearly doubled the amount of
users that Twitter does, (Lunden, 2012) both the election data and results of the survey
suggest that the uses and gratifications of Twitter are more socially significant. Quantity
does not translate to quality in this regard.
The research shows that what is happening online matters and ultimately affects
outcomes offline. From a civic engagement perspective, there may be no greater marketing
platform or voter outreach tool than social media sites. This could perhaps mean future
election communications will be more electronic-focused with fewer television ads and less
advertisements in the mail. Time will tell as new technologies emerge, but prevalence of
this medium will only grow in time for midterm elections in 2014 and beyond.
33
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