Gartner for Business Leaders
Publication Date: 8 December 2009
ID Number: G00172788
SWOT: Android, Mobile Devices, Worldwide
Roberta Cozza
Android is deeply rooted in the consumer smartphone market, based on a
comprehensive platform that leverages Google resources. But increasing competition in
the mobile operating system market, and the risk of platform and marketing
fragmentation, could limit Android's growth.
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 3
SWOT Analysis................................................................................................................ 3
Strengths ............................................................................................................ 5
Full Integrated Open-Source Software Platform for Smartphones ............ 5
Google Brand and Assets; High Profile of OHA Members........................ 6
Rich Development Tools and Rapid Platform Evolution ........................... 7
Strong User Interface Structure ............................................................... 7
Weaknesses ....................................................................................................... 8
Google's Lack of Marketing Push for the Android Brand and the Android
Market .................................................................................................... 8
Android Market Is Still Immature ............................................................. 8
Lack of Enterprise Support ...................................................................... 9
Opportunities..................................................................................................... 10
Smartphone Becoming a Mass Market Device ...................................... 10
Alternative Platform for Current Microsoft and Symbian OEMs .............. 10
Increasing Smartphone Market Share in North America and Europe ..... 11
OS for Embedded Consumer Electronics .............................................. 11
Threats.............................................................................................................. 12
Increasing Competition in Mobile OS Market ......................................... 12
Platform Fragmentation......................................................................... 12
Implication for Company Being Profiled .......................................................................... 13
Company Overview........................................................................................................ 13
Market Presence ............................................................................................... 13
Product Portfolio ................................................................................................ 14
Methodology .................................................................................................................. 14
Recommended Reading ............................................................................................................. 15
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Sales of Smartphones to Users by Operating System, Worldwide, 3Q09 and 3Q08....... 14
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Graphical Representation of SWOT: Android, Mobile Devices, Worldwide...................... 4
Figure 2. SWOT: Android, Mobile Devices, Worldwide .................................................................. 5
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
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ANALYSIS
Android, backed by the Open Handset Alliance (OHA), offers the advantage of a full integrated
software stack and Web-oriented platform that leverages Google's brand and assets to varying
degrees. Android has rapidly achieved its market status after being adopted by key smartphone
manufacturers, and this momentum continues to grow within the portfolios of major handset
manufacturers and operators. It is a strong candidate to drive a more consistent Linux-based
platform that could ultimately reach critical mass. But a larger number of devices and a stronger
ecosystem will need to emerge in 2010 to quickly boost Android's current market share.
Furthermore, Google must change its approach away from decentralized marketing toward a role
that clearly establishes a common identity — at least for its application market, if not for other
areas.
SWOT Analysis
Figure 1 is a graphical representation of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
(SWOT) pertaining to Android in mobile devices, based on Gartner's SWOT rating model.
Android is strongly placed in the consumer smartphone market, with a comprehensive and well
designed platform that leverages Google's brand and resources. Android's momentum with
handset manufactures and carriers keeps growing, but a larger number of Android devices will
have to be released in 2010 for it to increase its share of the market and fend off competition from
other open-source and closed-platform approaches. Fragmentation driven by the need to
differentiate vendors' solutions remains a key threat that could derail Android's progress in the
smartphone market.
Figure 2 is a summary of our SWOT.
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
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Figure 1. Graphical Representation of SWOT: Android, Mobile Devices, Worldwide
Source: Gartner (December 2009)
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
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Figure 2. SWOT: Android, Mobile Devices, Worldwide
OHA = Open Handset Alliance, OS = operating system
Source: Gartner (December 2009)
Strengths
Full Integrated Open-Source Software Platform for Smartphones
Android is an open-source mobile platform that offers the advantage of a full integrated software
stack, going from the Linux kernel up to the middleware and core applications. Other
standardization efforts around mobile Linux either do not offer a standard application suite, or
take time to integrate the various stack contributions from the members involved in the
standardization into a single platform. Android is a strong candidate to drive a more consistent
Linux-based platform that can ultimately drive wide commercial adoption and become the de
facto operating system (OS) for Linux. The lack of a single dominant standardization initiative or
vendor remains one of the main barriers to developing more compatible Linux handsets that can
achieve increasingly mainstream adoption.
Android's software stack is open-sourced under the Apache 2.0 license. The stack is very
comprehensive, and includes: a Linux operating system 2.6 kernel; open-source libraries (also
including WebKit for integrated browsers, SQLite for data storage and Secure Sockets Layer for
Internet security); Android Runtime to execute and host Android libraries, and the Dalvik virtual
machine (VM) optimized for mobile devices; the application framework; and an application layer
where all applications (both native and third-party) are built using the same API libraries. The
open character of the platform allows developers to access the same framework APIs used by
the native applications.
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Google makes Android available to handset vendors in three ways, depending on how much a
manufacturer or carrier wants to prioritize its own brand and device experience over a more
Google-centric one. The first option is called Google Experience, which enables "with Google"
logo rights based on the broad use of all Google applications, and more control from Google in
terms of the device software. Android comes as a free download version of the platform without
Google applications (Google-free), or with a distribution agreement signed with Google to preinstall Google applications (strings attached). Both options carry the Android logo, which confirms
only that the product is based on Android's user interface and application layers.
Google-branded applications and services will remain important parts of the Android offering, but
as more manufacturers select Android they will want to differentiate, and will increasingly push
their own brands to create more differentiated and customized device experiences. This will limit
the Google experience and push more "strings attached" Android devices to the market.
Google Brand and Assets; High Profile of OHA Members
The Google brand is one of Android's strong assets. The brand is strong from an industry
perspective, as it relates to Google's superb execution in its advertising business, its resources
and its Internet-centric vision, as well as being a brand that is very well known to consumers
worldwide and associated with technology and applications that they use every day. In Millward
Brown's BrandZ Top 100 Most Powerful Brands report for 2009, Google, worth $100 billion, ranks
at No. 1.
Android smartphones leverage Google assets such as Maps, Search or Gmail. Android phones
normally come with a suite of preinstalled applications (shipped as part of the stack) that includes:
an e-mail client compatible with Gmail (but not limited to it); a personal information manager suite
with calendar and contact lists both integrated with Google's online services; a mobile Google
Maps application including Street View; and the Android Market client to download third-party
Android applications. Android Market already offers a number of location-based applications that
take advantage of the native support for Google Maps and the geocoding and location-based
service elements built into the platform. To add to the "location" edge of its applications, Google
more recently announced the availability of a free turn-by-turn direction Internet-based service
called Google Maps Navigation. Google has extended the availability of Google Maps Navigation
to devices beyond release 2.0. It will also be available on smartphones running Android 1.6 and
higher, thus extending the service's market reach. The Google Maps Navigation service will put
competitive pressure on Nokia's Ovi Maps and operators' own turn-by-turn services.
To leverage its search technology, Google added the systemwide Quick Search Box (QSB) to
Android 1.6. The QSB includes search suggestions for Web items as well as browser bookmarks,
contacts, history and so on. The QSB also learns more relevant search results from previous
searches and choices, and prioritizes the most popular items. Google also allows developers to
add their own apps to QSB.
Android's platform development is driven by Google with contributions from members of the OHA.
The OHA is made up of some of the most prominent companies in the mobile industry, including
hardware manufacturers (like Samsung, Motorola, LG, Sony Ericsson, HTC, Acer, Toshiba and
Huawei), major carriers (like Telefonica, T-Mobile, Vodafone, Telecom Italia, China Mobile, NTT
DoCoMo and Sprint), semiconductor companies (Intel, Qualcomm, Marvell, Texas Instruments
and Broadcom) and software companies. The first Android-based smartphone, the G1, was
launched by Google and OHA members T-Mobile and HTC in October 2008.
Most of the OHA members have well established mobile market positions and large customer
bases. During 2009, HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Acer, Huawei and Sony Ericsson launched or
announced smartphones based on Android. Most of the handset manufacturers that are
members of the OHA have the R&D resources to create a large enough device portfolio to
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compete in the broad consumer market outside Android's current niche vendor status. Carriers
are also supporting Android as an alternative to compete with Apple.
Android's success will depend largely on whether the OHA members release attractive device
designs (at present Android-based devices lack truly iconic or unique designs), as well as
innovative technology and applications that can encourage widespread adoption of the Android
ecosystem.
Rich Development Tools and Rapid Platform Evolution
The Android software development kit (SDK) is very comprehensive. It includes: Android APIs;
several development tools to compile and debug applications; an Android Emulator to test how
applications will behave on a real device; extensive code documentation; and good online
support, with active forums involving Android developers and engineers from the Android team at
Google. For developers using the popular Eclipse integrated development environment, Android
has released a free plug-in to integrate Eclipse with the Android Emulator.
Android's applications are written using the popular Java language; however, Google has
developed its own VM software (called Dalvik) to execute Java programs. Instead of Java
bytecode the Dalvik VM uses Google bytecode, which is optimized for minimal memory footprint,
and it claims improved application performance on Android phones. Because the application
execution is hosted in the VM, developers have an abstraction layer that makes them less
exposed to specific hardware implementations. Android has been specifically designed to support
a variety of hardware platforms, as opposed to the closed operating systems created for a limited
or single hardware implementation. In addition, the Android application framework encourages
the concept of component reuse, allowing developers to share application capabilities with other
applications, with access managed by restrictions put in place by the developer. This, for
example, allows developers to share their application components to let other developers create
new extensions or replace components.
Android offers three programming models, including native, a cleanroom Java Dalvik and HTML.
In the long term we expect Google to push HTML as the primary means to deliver applications,
with longer-term support for HTML5.
In September 2008, Google introduced the Android 1.0 SDK, release 1, which is an updated and
improved version of early Android SDKs released since November 2007. Despite its relative
youth, with subsequent platform releases to Android 1.0 Google has very quickly improved its
features and provided an increasing number of new APIs for developers. The fast pace of
platform development has brought three releases in just six months, each introducing important
improvements (see "Product Portfolio" section). This inevitable speed of platform evolution brings
fragmentation in the Android space. Android devices coexist running different versions; there are
even new devices that don't run on the latest releases, like the X10 from Sony Ericsson, which
does not run on Android 2.0.
Strong User Interface Structure
Android's standard user interface (UI) has been created by looking at the principles of interaction
design based on structure, user behavior and expression. A number of interaction patterns are
built into the Android framework to optimize the UI experience. The Android UI is consistent and
simple from menu to menu, offering a more intuitive flow of user behavior and minimizing onscreen actions (see:
http://code.google.com/events/io/2009/sessions/PixelPerfectCodeInteractionDesign
Android.html ).
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Android features a simple and consistent three-stage menu system that is optimized for small
screens and which enforces as flat a hierarchy as possible.
The icon menu appears at the bottom of the screen when the Menu key is pressed.
The expanded menu is triggered when users select the More menu from the icon menu,
and shows only menu items not visible in the icon menu.
Submenus move away from traditional hierarchical tree designs and are displayed in a
floating window.
Unlike other UIs in the market that go from very gesture-centric solutions (such as the webOS UI
on the Palm Pre), to buttonless (Apple's iPhone) and key-centric solutions (Nokia's and Research
In Motion [RIM]'s phones), Android allows a good integration of touch input and buttons. Android
features four principal buttons on the front of the device (Home, Menu, Back and Search) and a
trackball that allows most tasks on a touchscreen to be conveniently performed in one-handed
mode at the bottom of the screen. A "long press" action on keys opens up contextual menus with
additional relevant functionalities.
With release 1.5, Android added support for an on-screen keyboard in portrait and landscape
mode. The on-screen keyboard is well designed and more usable than similar solutions in the
market from Microsoft and Symbian. It includes auto-correction software, but further
improvements are expected. Android supports the installation of on-screen third-party
applications. With release 1.5, Android also benefited from added support for the customization of
the Home screen, with widgets displaying real-time data views and live folders.
Weaknesses
Google's Lack of Marketing Push for the Android Brand and the Android Market
Google's hands-off approach to marketing Android means that manufacturers and carriers are
putting their own marketing and advertising spin on the platform and the Android Market
application store. In this way Google wants to allow manufacturers to have their own identity
without imposing any dominant approach. However, this is resulting in a fragmentation of
marketing approaches that do not seem connected. Google's reluctance to take a leadership role
could backfire if Android is regarded not as a single ecosystem but many environments.
It could also be detrimental to consumer awareness of the Android ecosystem, as a
fragmentation of marketing approaches will make Android seem like many competing
environments instead of just one. In addition, Google has not sufficiently advertised the Android
Market with consumers. Apple, on the other hand, is investing heavily in its App Store advertising,
with positive results in terms of consumer awareness. Consumers are increasingly deciding which
smartphone to buy based partly on the attractiveness of the ecosystem attached to the device,
which feeds into their device experience. Google should play more of a central role in marketing
the platform and its application marketplace, to reinforce its commitment to the platform and
improve consumers' awareness of a single Android brand and ecosystem.
Android Market Is Still Immature
Google, as a major supplier of advertising and content, could make Android Market a very
attractive platform, but its success will depend ultimately on how rich and innovative the Android
developer community will be. Android's open-source strategy, Google's resources and, more
importantly, the fact that major handset manufacturers are now starting to release Android
phones are powerful arguments to convince developers to embrace the system.
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The Android developer community is raising the bar in terms of location-based services, by
building context-aware applications on top of services like the Google Maps API. Yet the Android
Market is at the early stages of its development and consumer awareness of it is low, partly
because it lacks any major marketing push from Google. Android Market was launched in
October 2008, together with the first Android phone (the G1), and estimates put its current list of
applications at about 14,000. This compares with more than 100,000 titles available on the App
Store.
With Android 1.6, Google has addressed some of the shortcomings of Android Market in terms of
discoverability, UI and user experience. This has improved the user experience by allowing
people to search for specific types of content, such as applications, games or downloads. It has
also introduced the capability to select applications by category — "Top paid," "Top free" and
"Just in." Android Market was also heavily criticized for not including screenshots and longer
descriptions of apps. This was introduced with the 1.6 release, which supports screenshots
submitted by developers, together with users' reviews.
All these were necessary additions, but the overall user experience still lags behind the more
sophisticated and advanced UI and features available on the Apple App Store (such as the
Genius application recommendation tool introduced with the iPhone 3.1). More enhancements in
UI and application discoverability will be needed for Android.
The other limitation is that so far Google Checkout is the only way to buy the applications. This
can be a problem for users who don't have credit cards or who don't wish to use them for impulse
purchases. We expect Google to introduce more payment options in the near future — possibly
even over-the-air billing.
As with most other application stores, developers can take 70% of the application sale, while 30%
goes to "carriers and billing settlement fees." Google does not get any revenue. As for guidelines
about what is allowed in the Android Market, Google has a more liberal approach, without the
rigorous content control that Apple demands. Google charges developers $25 to submit their
application to the marketplace. Another requirement is that the application must be signed by the
developer, with the generation of a private key to identify the application's author. Certificates to
generate private keys can be self-signed.
This expedites the time it takes to post an application on the Market but, even though the user
community can rate the application, one with low-quality or malicious content could still be posted
before it is detected by the user community. In a similar way to the process of uploading videos to
YouTube, applications are not reviewed before they appear on the Market, but they can be taken
down if they violate various policies. For example, Google has a policy prohibiting inappropriate
content, including malware. A developer must also abide by Google's Developer Distribution
Agreement (see http://www.android.com/us/developer-distribution-agreement.html ) in order to
upload an application to Android Market. Google may also check that applications comply with
the Market's Developer Content Policy (to remove malware, pornography, spam or profanity).
Lack of Enterprise Support
At present Android is a consumer-oriented platform. It does not offer support or tools for
enterprises or direct synchronization with PC data. Android devices do not include the two-key
security policies required to reach Gartner's "appliance support" level — the ability to wipe the
device remotely when lost or stolen, and the ability to force the use of a complex password with
periodic changes (see "Use Managed Diversity to Support Mobile Devices"). Because of demand
from enterprise users, Apple added these two key security features. Palm Pre, Nokia Eseries,
Windows Mobile and BlackBerry devices satisfy these two criteria and can be handled under
appliance support. As the iPhone did, Android devices will find their way into the enterprise.
Although the current lack of enterprise features is a weakness, in time, as the platform matures,
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the inclusion of enterprise features will be an important opportunity for Android. Andy Rubin, VP
of Engineering for Android, has already confirmed that future Android releases with include more
corporate-friendly features. Android 2.0 introduces support for Exchange, but Android did not
introduce the required policies for appliance support and Gartner does not recommended it for
enterprise support. We expect Android's enterprise support to remain inconsistent through at
least 2010.
Opportunities
Smartphone Becoming a Mass Market Device
The endorsement of Android by device manufacturers like HTC has helped position it at the high
end of the consumer smartphone market. More recently, Motorola (with the Droid) and Sony
Ericsson (with the Xperia X10) have positioned Android as their flagship OS at the high end of
their handset portfolio. However, from 2010 more Android handsets will become available from
more vendors, and we expect more pricing activity around Android-based phones to start,
potentially pushing Android devices into the midtier phone market. The HTC Droid Eris is already
being offered at an aggressive $99 from Verizon Wireless. HTC has positioned the HTC Tattoo
as a midtier smartphone. Motorola and Sony Ericsson have confirmed that they will offer an
Android portfolio that will stretch to different price points, despite the fact that at the moment their
Android models are high-end devices. New entrants to the smartphone market, such as PC
vendors, are likely to use aggressive pricing around Android as a differentiator — Acer is a likely
example. OHA members like Samsung, LG, Motorola and Huawei have the resources, and some
the strategies, to offer Android devices at lower price points than what we have seen so far. This
will have an impact on average selling price (ASP) trends within the overall smartphone market
and on the ASPs of vendors using competing platforms.
Google does not enforce hardware reference designs. This can be a problem for OEMs that, in
seeking out lower-cost markets, might make non-optimal design decisions (such as choosing a
full touchscreen design with a screen that is less than 3 inches), which would make the product
almost unusable.
In the longer term, Google also has opportunities in emerging markets like China. China Mobile
and China Unicom are already members of the OHA. China Mobile is promoting its Androidbased OPhone with its new Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TDSCDMA) network. The OPhone platform can open up new opportunities for Chinese vendors with
larger R&D scale. China Mobile's backup for Android with the OPhone is important, but we do not
expect high volumes before 2H10. In addition, Chinese white-label vendors are focusing
aggressively on low-cost smartphones, and Google China recently confirmed that it will embrace
white-label phone makers for the Android platform. Following the recent departure of Kai-Fu Lee
as president of Google China, however, it remains to be seen if Google will stick to its policy.
Alternative Platform for Current Microsoft and Symbian OEMs
The open-source principles governing Android promise better margins for vendors as they
become more flexible with platform development and bill of materials costs. The smartphone
market will be dominated by open-source OSs. Android, Symbian and other varieties of Linux will
account for over 62% of the market by 2012. This will also mean that the commercial value of
core OSs will diminish, putting pressure on the traditional license-fee-based model used by
Microsoft. Most of Microsoft's OEMs, like HTC, Sony Ericsson, LG and Samsung, are already
developing devices based on Android, as the platform positions them more strongly in the
consumer market, where Microsoft remains weak.
Leading mobile OS supplier Symbian was acquired by Nokia, then moved to become an opensource platform under the Symbian Foundation, with Nokia being a contributing member
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alongside other manufacturers like Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson. If the Symbian Foundation
fails to be an initiative that is truly independent of Nokia's control, manufacturers will modify their
own UIs to work on it, but are unlikely to see much benefit over Android. Android becomes more
attractive for Symbian OEMs as it is not driven by a competing handset vendor. Symbian is not
expected to officially become a complete open-source platform before the second half of 2010,
when the Qt application framework should be fully implemented, along with long-due
enhancements in areas like the UI. This is a long time to wait, and leaves room for competitors
like Android to further attack Symbian during 2010, and drive OEMs away from any further
investment in the platform. Current Symbian Foundation members Samsung, LG and Sony
Ericsson have already launched Android devices (in 2H09). Sharp in Japan has also announced
that it will release an Android-based smartphone in 2010.
Increasing Smartphone Market Share in North America and Europe
The smartphone market in North America is dominated by high-end devices from RIM and Apple.
Together they accounted for over 78% of the smartphone market in 2Q09. The North American
market is largely controlled by the operators, which are increasingly shifting their focus to
smartphones and looking for alternatives to RIM and Apple. Symbian has little share in North
America and Android is well positioned to act as a lower-cost consumer platform and potentially
take a significant share of this market.
Android is already making tremendous progress with the top U.S. operators. Verizon Wireless
has launched two Android devices: the Droid Eris by HTC, priced aggressively at $99 (after a
mail-in rebate) and with a two-year data contract, and the Motorola Droid. These additions at
Verizon will increase the pressure on RIM, as the company's sales volumes benefited mainly
from Verizon's promotions during 2009. Sprint has lunched the HTC Hero and Samsung Moment,
while T-Mobile USA has four Android devices: the Motorola Cliq, HTC's myTouch 3G and G1,
and Samsung's Behold 2. Expect AT&T to follow in 2010 — it could just be a matter of time until
AT&T adds Android to its portfolio. We forecast that over half of all mobile devices in North
America will be smartphones by 2012. This represents an important opportunity for Android, and
its share of the smartphone market could grow as high as 23% by 2013, from about 9% in 2009.
Other advanced markets like Western Europe will also be key for Android, largely as Symbian
loses most of its OEMs to Android or other platforms. However, competition in Europe will be
tougher, especially in the entry-level smartphone segment and the middle market. Nokia, which is
essentially driving Symbian's share in the region, still dominates the smartphone market in
Europe with a 48% share, and will continue to push Symbian more and more into its wide-ranging
midtier handset portfolio.
OS for Embedded Consumer Electronics
Connected portable consumer electronics are defined by Gartner according to the following
characteristics: Internet connectivity that is task-specific and directed at the primary focus of the
product, and wireless broadband connectivity that includes wireless LAN (WLAN), WAN cellular
or WiMAX. Mobile handsets are the main focus for Android today, but in future a growing number
of portable consumer electronics will include wireless connectivity to enable services as
differentiators. In the long term Android can become an attractive embedded OS for these
categories of connected consumer electronics devices. Examples include portable media players,
video game handhelds, portable navigation devices and e-book readers. Many smartphones
today include consumer electronics functionality or can be defined as mobile Internet devices
(MIDs) and, looking ahead, the distinctions between high-end smartphones and connected
consumer electronics devices with WAN connectivity will become irrelevant.
More recently, Archos introduced to market the Archos 5 Internet Tablet, which is a 5-inch
portable media player developed on Android but supporting only Wi-Fi connectivity. OHA member
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MIPS Technologies has already announced the porting of Android to its MIPS chip used in settop boxes, MIDs, digital TVs and home media players. In Japan, the Open Embedded Software
Foundation (OESF) is an organization focused on driving the standardization and development of
Android as an embedded OS on consumer electronics beyond mobile phones. It lists over 60
members, including MIPS Technologies, ARM, Fujitsu Software Technologies and Panasonic
Communications.
Threats
Increasing Competition in Mobile OS Market
The smartphone market will be dominated by open-source OSs. Android, Symbian, Maemo and
other Linux variants will account for over 62% of the market by 2012. This means that the mobile
platform market is betting on benefiting from a more community-based development approach.
Handset manufacturers and operators can clearly see the advantages of having more control and
flexibility over customizations on the platform. Android's unit sales doubled sequentially in 3Q09,
but its volumes remain modest, accounting for just 3.5% of the smartphone market. Today
Android is the best candidate to dominate the mobile Linux space, but new open-source initiatives
are coming to market and will start to respond to Android.
OHA member Samsung is also a key contributing member of the LiMo Foundation, and recently
co-developed, with Vodafone, the Linux-based Vodafone 360 H1. This is based on the new
Release 2 of the LiMo Foundation's platform, and uses Vodafone 360 UI software. We expect
more announcements from carriers concerning LiMo-based handsets. In addition, Samsung has
more recently announced that it will open its proprietary environment and release bada as its new
open platform. This could mean a decreasing focus on Android if bada is prioritized.
The LiMo Foundation is backed up by a number of prominent mobile operators. It has the
potential to be the platform of choice for some carriers looking for an alternative to Android and
Google.
Nokia's Linux-based Maemo platform could account for as much as 8% of the global smartphone
market by 2013, if it becomes the OS of choice running on Nokia's higher-end devices. If Nokia
delivers on its Ovi strategy and successfully attracts developers to use Qt as an application
framework for Maemo as well as open Symbian, this development environment could challenge
Android's volume potential at the high end of the market, especially in geographies like Europe.
Platform Fragmentation
Android's open-source principles are a key element that should encourage innovation and
differentiation for developers and handset vendors. However, as we know, open-source rules can
cause platform fragmentation. The OHA members have signed a "non-fragmentation agreement"
to keep the platform consistent, to avoid having different versions of the same release from a
code perspective. However, it is not yet clear how Google will control the way this agreement
works in conjunction with the Apache license.
Android is an open-source platform, and parts of it are governed by the Apache Software Licence
(ASL). This is boosting support for Android from handset vendors, as they can develop
proprietary customizations to differentiate their products; at the same time, however, as Android
gains more traction in the market, the risk of fragmentation also increases. For example, a
number of manufacturers are already implementing their own proprietary enhancements in terms
of their collaboration clients (Motorola Blur, HTC Sense, Sony Ericsson Timescape), or have
integrated their own UI and user experience more or less deeply into Android's standard
architecture. Some of these enhancements can use features that are not shared with developers.
This can negatively impact developers as it limits application compatibility, as each developer
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may not comply with each of the branded user experience frameworks used by a given vendor to
differentiate. Compared with the Apache version 2.0 used by Android, the Eclipse version 1.0
license used by open Symbian is less open, in that it is more tolerant of software patents.
Another issue comes from the fact that Google is rapidly evolving the Android platform — we
have already seen three key releases in just six months, with versions 1.5, 1.6 and 2.0. Given the
average life cycle of a smartphone, this means that we currently have several key releases
coexisting in commercial devices, sometimes within the same manufacturer (such as with the
Motorola Cliq and Motorola Droid devices, which are based on 1.5 and 2.0 releases respectively).
It is up to the manufacturer or carrier to make a new software release available for their line-up.
Google claims that all applications in the Android Market are backward compatible, and to ease
consumer confusion over application compatibility, if an application does not run on a certain
platform, it will not appear in the Android Market. Still, as Android is evolving so rapidly,
developers might have problems quickly creating applications that run smoothly on each release.
Without a serious effort from Google and the OHA members to ensure a level of consistency in
the underlying platform, Android risks becoming just another version of Linux that will fragment
and have diminished market and ecosystem potential.
Implication for Company Being Profiled
The endorsement of Android by high-profile handset manufacturers and mobile operators
worldwide positions Android to potentially become the de facto OS for Linux and to start eroding
the market share of competing mobile OSs more aggressively from 2010. Gartner forecasts the
smartphone market to reach 525 million units in 2012, from 179 million in 2009. Android is
forecast to become the second largest smartphone OS by 2012, behind Symbian, capturing 18%
of global smartphone sales (or 94.4 million units), rising from an estimated 5% share of the
smartphone market in 2009.
For Android to succeed, however, it will remain critical to attract a growing number of developers
and partners that can truly innovate around applications and services. Although Android's
momentum keeps growing within the portfolio of major handset manufacturers and operators, it
will need to see a larger number of attractive devices being released in 2010 to move from its
limited market share position of today. As more Android devices become available in the market,
handset vendors focusing on Android will be challenged to differentiate their offerings and will
need to raise the bar in terms of software expertise, to create truly compelling and unique user
experiences that increase the "stickiness" of their brands. The open nature of the Android
platform and the increasing drive for vendor-specific enhancements could cause extensive
platform fragmentation and negatively impact Android and its ecosystem uptake in the market.
Company Overview
In November 2007, Google, together with the OHA, announced the development of Android, an
open-source platform based on Linux. Android offers a full integrated software stack, going from
the Linux kernel up to the middleware and core applications. At launch, 34 prominent mobile
industry players had signed up with the OHA; as of November 2009 membership had grown to 50
partners. The alliance includes four categories of partner: semiconductor companies,
commercialization partners, wireless operators and software partners (see
http://www.openhandsetalliance.com/ ).
Market Presence
Gartner estimates Android's share of the global smartphone market at 3.5% in 3Q09, up from
1.8% in 2Q09. Despite unit sales having doubled sequentially in 3Q09, overall volumes remained
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Page 13 of 16
modest. More aggressive unit growth of Android-based devices is expected in 2010 (see Table
1).
Table 1. Sales of Smartphones to Users by Operating System, Worldwide, 3Q09 and 3Q08
Units, 3Q09
(K)
Market Share,
3Q09
Units, 3Q08
(K)
Market Share,
3Q08
Market Share
Change
18,315
44.6%
18,179
49.7%
-5.1%
Research In
Motion
8,523
20.8%
5,800
15.9%
4.9%
iPhone OS
7,040
17.1%
4,720
12.9%
4.2%
Microsoft
Windows
Mobile
3,234
7.9%
4,053
11.1%
-3.2%
Linux
1,919
4.7%
2,664
7.3%
-2.6%
Android
1,425
3.5%
0.0%
3.5%
webOS
446
1.1%
0.0%
1.1%
Palm OS
114
0.3%
1.0%
-0.7%
-2.0%
OS
Symbian
Other OSs
Total
361
53
0.1%
780
2.1%
41,068
100.0%
36,557
100.0%
OS = operating system
Source: Gartner (December 2009)
Product Portfolio
In April 2009, with Android 1.5 (code-named Cupcake), Google introduced new features, such as:
onscreen soft keyboard and support for installation of third-party virtual keyboard; customizable
home screen widgets; video recording/sharing with support for video upload to YouTube; stereo
Bluetooth, copy and paste in browser and search within Web page; and built-in voice search.
Android 1.6 (code-named Donut, available in September 2009) was a minor release compared to
Cupcake, and added an improved experience of Android Market, a new gesture framework for
developers, and the systemwide QSB search box. The most recent Android release is 2.0 (codenamed Eclair), which introduces interesting features like the Quick Contact view and support for
Exchange. As each release adds features and new APIs it will become increasingly important for
Google to focus more on managing the communication of Android's road map and strategy to the
OHA members and its growing developer community. More detail on the features of each release
can be found at http://developer.android.com/ .
Methodology
The platform analyzed in this SWOT was selected because it is an important player in the
smartphone market worldwide, and could become established as one of the leading OSs running
on smartphones. The topics discussed in this document were selected based on Gartner's
analysis of the worldwide mobile device market, and in particular the reports: "Market Share:
Mobile Devices and Smartphones by Region and Country, 3Q09" and "Forecast: Smartphones by
Operating System and End User Segment, Worldwide, 2007-2013."
The Vendor SWOT Analysis methodology is explained in detail in "The Gartner Vendor SWOT
Analysis, Update 2008."
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Page 14 of 16
Gartner's Vendor SWOT analysis is designed for the use of vendors as a supplement to their
planning processes. Its primary value is as an independent analysis of the vendor's competitive
situation. The SWOT analysis provides a unique independent view of the strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats for a specific vendor in a specific market and geography. The specific
geography (for example, globally or regionally) and market and/or submarket are based on
Gartner Dataquest Market Segment definitions or market focuses (for example, small or midsize
business [SMB]).
Vendors are selected based on a variety of criteria, such as their growth rate or major changes in
their positioning or channel strategy. SWOTs will not necessarily cover the companies with the
largest market share.
RECOMMENDED READING
"Forecast: Smartphones by Operating System and End User Segment, Worldwide, 2007-2013"
"Market Share: Mobile Devices and Smartphones by Region and Country, 3Q09"
"Android Helps Motorola Get Back in the Game"
"Vendor Rating: Google"
"Dataquest Insight: Cellular MIDs Are Evolving From Smartphones"
Publication Date: 8 December 2009/ID Number: G00172788
© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
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