Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
Globelics 2010
8th International Conference
Making Innovation Work for Society:
Linking, Leveraging and Learning
1 - 3 November 2010
University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
The Impact of Climate Change on the Glaciers, Water Resources
and Livelihood of Pakistan.
Name of
Corresponding
Author
Mariya Absar
Title & Position
Water Policy Researcher
Institution & Full
Postal Address
COMSTECH Secretariat, 3 Constitution Avenue, Islamabad.
E-mail Address
mariya.absar@gmail.com
Globelics
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Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GLACIERS, WATER RESOURCES AND
LIVELIHOOD OF PAKISTAN
MARIYA ABSAR
RESEARCH OFFICER WATER POLICY
COMSTECH SECRETARIAT
ISLAMABAD
(JUNE, 2010)
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Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................................... 4
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 5
1.
BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................................... 7
2.
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PAKISTAN ......................................................................................... 13
2.1.
GLACIERS OF PAKISTAN ...................................................................................................... 14
2.2.
PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF GLACIERS ........................................................................ 17
3.
CLIMATE, GLACIERS AND WATER BALANCE OF NORTHERN PAKISTAN ................................. 19
3.1.
TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS ............................................................................................... 19
3.2.
HYDROLOGY AND WATER BALANCE OF THE H-K-H REGION ............................................. 20
3.2.1.
PRECIPITATION ................................................................................................................ 21
3.2.2.
RUNOFF OVER TIME AND SPACE IN THE HKH REGION ................................................... 22
3.2.3.
THREE TYPES OF MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHEDS ............................................................. 23
3.3.
OBSERVED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE KARAKORAM ANOMALY ................... 27
3.3.1.
INFLUENCES OF REGIONAL CLIMATE .............................................................................. 29
3.3.2.
THE EFFECT OF ELEVATION ............................................................................................ 29
3.3.3.
SUPRAGLACIAL DEBRIS AND DUSTY ICE ......................................................................... 30
3.3.4.
THERMAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN GLACIERS ................................................................. 30
3.4.
GLACIER SURGES AND GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS (GLOF).................................. 32
4.
PAKISTAN RENEWABLE FRESHWATER STATISTICS ................................................................ 35
5.
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND LIVELIHOODS................................................. 36
6.
DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................... 38
7.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................. 40
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................... 45
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 46
FIGURES AND TABLES ................................................................................................................... 48
ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................... 51
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ABSTRACT
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
The Climate Change is impacting the glaciers the world over, and the IPCC and the World Bank are
making tall claims about how most glaciers will be gone from the Indian Subcontinent by the year 2030.
However a detailed study, based on the literature review of articles and empirical studies published in
international journals and other supplementary sources such as personal communications with local and
international glaciologists and hydrologists working in the Himalayan-Karakoram-Hindu Kush (HKH)
region, reveals that the HKH region is under the influence of more than one weather systems. Owing to
that and other geographic, topographic and hydrological reasons, most of the glaciers located in the higher
elevations of the Karakoram mountain range are observed to be expanding, getting thicker and surging,
which is a very interesting phenomenon. Other studies and observations in the western Himalayan
region do show consistencies with the popular belief that glaciers are melting and forming large lakes
close to their termini. Given that the science is there in its infancy and that the topography of the HKH
region is highly heterogeneous with multiple factors controlling the receding and surging of glaciers, it is
premature and challenging to come up with any generalized conclusions about what the glaciers will look
like in the year 2030.
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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INTRODUCTION
As the world experiences climate change we hear about glaciers melting all over the world.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s fourth assessment report
(AR4) the glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and affect water
resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as
the glaciers recede. Furthermore, the World Bank Report titled: Pakistan Country Water
Resources Assistance Strategy Water Economy: Running Dry, (2005) states that as the Indus
basin depends heavily on the glaciers of the western Himalayas and that climate change is
already affecting the western glaciers in a dramatic fashion, far more seriously than the damper
Eastern Himalayas. The best estimates are that there will be fifty years of glacial retreat, during
which time river flows will increase, but eventually the glacial reservoirs will be empty. The
Indus river basin indeed depends heavily on the Himalayan-Karakoram-Hindu Kush (HKH)
glaciers, this study will explore how far the hypothesis made by IPCC, the World Bank and
many other publications is true and how far climate change does and will impact Pakistan’s
glaciers and water resources.
The study is a general overview of the impact of climate change and other drivers on the HKH
glaciers and water resources of Pakistan, based on the literature review of articles and empirical
studies published in international journals and other supplementary sources such as personal
communication with and presentations of local and international glaciologists and hydrologists
working in the HKH region. Most published resources assess the impact of climate change on the
glaciers, derived from climate models, econometric analyses, field observations and satellite
imagery.
This study starts by looking at climate change and how it is impacting the greater South Asian
region, particularly the northern areas of Pakistan. Subsequently, the study briefly explores the
topography, location, elevation and the climatic makeup of this region. The glaciers of the HKH
ranges are then visited with a great deal of discussion revolving around the Karakoram and its
expanding glaciers. Throughout the study, the spotlight is on the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)
region, primarily to study the impact of climate change and other determining variables on the
tributaries that make up the Indus River system. The study also investigates the hydrology of the
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Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
mountains and the UIB in particular to draw attention to the impact of climate change on the
river flow regime of the River Indus which is the lifeline of 160 million people of Pakistan.
Consequently the study highlights the caveats of studying the complex northern areas, the impact
of climate change on the economy and livelihood of the country and makes relevant policy
recommendations.
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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1. BACKGROUND
Climate change is real and it’s happening now! It is a permanent change in the pattern and trend
of weather over a long period of time expressed as a variation in the mean weather conditions,
the likelihood of extreme conditions in a specific region or across the whole planet. Climate
change can be attributed to either natural or anthropogenic drivers. Of most concern in the
anthropogenic drivers is the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels due to emissions from fossil
fuel combustion (brought about by the staggering global population growth and rising energy
needs), followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and land use; deforestation
and agriculture (IPCC, 2007).
There has been a 25 percent increase in the atmospheric CO2 since the early 1800s.
Climatologists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, estimate an increase of 10 percent since
1958. The rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 levels is about 0.4 percent per year. Humans add
CO2 to the atmosphere primarily by burning fossil fuels like coal and oil. Deforestation is the
second major way atmospheric CO2 is increased. Felled timber releases CO2 as it burns or
decays. Forests give way largely to annual crops that store CO2 for only a season or to cities with
little vegetation at all (NASA, 1993).
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as water vapor, CO2, methane, nitrous oxides, and
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere, resemble glass in a greenhouse that allows
sunlight to pass through but blocks earth’s heat from escaping back into the atmosphere - known
as the ‘greenhouse effect’. This happens because life on earth depends on the energy from the
sun which when absorbed by earth’s surface turns into infrared heat and is radiated upward.
About ninety percent of this heat is absorbed by the GHGs and radiated back to the surface thus
supporting a life sustaining temperature on earth. With the increase in GHG emissions, the
Earth’s surface is getting warmer than before as more of the infrared heat is radiated back. This
warming may give way to unpredictable climate patterns, melting of glaciers, warming of oceans
leading to expansion and sea level rise. At the same time, higher temperatures and shifting
precipitation patterns may adversely affect the areas where crops grow best and affect the natural
makeup of plant communities (NASA, 1993).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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The climate model projections summarized in the AR4 indicate that the global surface
temperature will rise by a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the current century. However, warming is
expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of
the oceans and the persistence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for a long period of time
(IPCC, 2007).
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, by economist Sir Nicholas Stern for the
British government, discusses the effect of climate change and global warming on the world
economy. The review delineates that all countries will be affected by climate change, but the
poorest countries will suffer earliest and the most. Warming of 3 or 4 degree Celsius will result
in many millions of people being flooded and by the middle of the century 200 million may be
permanently displaced due to rise in sea levels and heavier floods and droughts. A warming of 4
degree Celsius or more is likely to seriously affect global food production (Stern, 2006).
According to the AR4, the fresh water availability in the large river basins of South Asian
countries is projected to decrease and the coastal areas especially the heavily populated ones are
at a high risk of flooding due to sea level rise. The South Asian Region’s economies with greater
dependency on agriculture and water resources will be greatly affected by climate change
exacerbating current stresses on water resources from population growth and land-use change,
including deforestation and urbanization. Climate change would also cause a serious impact on
the precipitation patterns of the region making rain and storm events less predictable and more
intense, expand subtropical deserts and reduce agricultural yields (IPCC, 2007).
Figure 1 - Projected precipitation changes
Source: Climate Change (2007).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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Changes in precipitation (Figure 1) and temperature (Figure 2) lead to changes in runoff (Figure
3) and water availability. Runoff is projected to decrease by 10 to 30% over dry regions at midlatitudes due to decreases in rainfall and higher rates of evapotranspiration (IPCC, 2007). There
are data limitations for Pakistan and adjoining areas therefore general predictions can not be
made for this region without having reliable datasets.
Figure 2 - Projected temperature changes
Source: Climate Change (2007).
The AR4 states that the benefits derived from climate change on fresh water systems, such as
increased agricultural output and forest cover given that some areas will experience an increase
in the annual runoff, are offset by the staggering negative impacts of climate change. These
negative impacts include reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources
especially where the runoff is projected to decline with climate change, increased precipitation
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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variability such as intense flood events, flashier systems and seasonal runoff shifts on water
supply and water quality (IPCC, 2007).
Figure 3 - Projected changes in runoff
Source: Climate Change (2007).
South Asia is also experiencing glacier melt making it prone to floods and further down the line
– droughts. There is a marked decrease in both mountain glaciers and snow cover, on average, in
both hemispheres (IPCC, 2007). “The maximum areal extent of seasonally frozen ground has
decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with decreases in spring [season]
of up to 15%” (IPCC, 2007).
“On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in
freshwater availability. Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over
recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water
availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by melt
water from major mountain ranges e.g. Hindu-Kush, and Himalayas, where more than one-sixth
of the world population currently lives” (IPCC, 2007).
The ‘greater Himalayan region’, also known as the ‘Roof of the World’, is discernibly impacted
by climate change. The most widely reported impact is the rapid deglaciation, with profound
future implications for downstream water resources. The effects of climate change are
superimposed on a variety of environmental and social stresses, many already recognized as
severe (Eriksson, 2009). Figure 4 shows that the Greater Himalayan glaciers are retreating
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Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
rapidly and consistently in comparison to other glaciers of the world. However, it is imperative
for this study to find out what is happening to the glaciers of Northern Pakistan.
Figure 4 - Rapid retreat of greater Himalayan glaciers in comparison to the global average
Source: Eriksson (2009)
According to Dr. Rakhshan Roohi’s article titled ‘Research on global changes in Pakistan’ in
which she analyzed the climate change and weather trends in Pakistan over the past 30 years.
There is a high topographic variability in the mountain regions ranging from low hills to the
towering eight thousanders of the Karakoram. This variability and multiple climate systems
impacting the region pose a real obstacle in studying climate change in this region. However for
empirical purposes, the region is divided into two zones; above 35°N and below 35°N. In the
region above 35°N, mostly winter rains dominate due to the influence of western disturbances
from December up till March. The below 35°N region is largely supplied by the monsoons
caused by low pressure created in the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal region from July to
September (Roohi, 2007).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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Based on the time series climate data of temperature and precipitation over a period of 30 years,
trends have been identified for both the zones. As observed, there was an increasing trend in
winter temperatures and while the trend is negative during the monsoon season. The increase in
mean and maximum temperatures during the winter or the snow melt months (April -May) is
quite discernable. For regions below the 35°N mark, the trend predominantly manifests
decreasing mean and minimum temperatures during the monsoon season. Both regions show
pronounced diurnal variations. As for precipitation, in the above 35°N region, the data suggests
that the monsoon rains have increased but the winter rains have decreased although not
significantly. In the below 35°N region, both monsoon and winter rains have increased slightly
(Roohi, 2007).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
2. MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PAKISTAN
Pakistan lies at the juncture of three of the highest mountain ranges; Himalayas, the Karakoram
and the Hindu Kush (figure 5), with the greatest concentration of peaks over 8000m high
anywhere in the world. Within these ranges are 108 mountain peaks that are above 6000m and a
number of peaks above 4000m above sea level. Five of the 14 highest peaks in the world are
found in the Karakoram, at the confluence of Baltoro Glacier and Godwin Austen Glacier
(Wikipedia.org, 2009).
Figure 5 - Glaciers and Mountain Ranges of Pakistan
HINDU KUSH
WESTERN HIMALAYAS
Source: Hewitt (2009)
The mountains in the northern part of Pakistan are an extension of what is broadly called the
‘Great Himalayas’ rolling along western Nepal through Jammu and Kashmir in north-west India
and northern Pakistan, and then south-west along the mountains in the border region between
Pakistan and Afghanistan. Three prominent mountain ranges that make up the Northern areas of
Pakistan are the Western Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush ranges (HKH), the latter two
making up the trans-Himalayan ranges (H. Karrar, personal communication, September 5, 2009).
These ranges lie between 33.55° and 37.5° N latitude 71° and 77.5° longitude (see figure 6)
covering an area of 72,496 km2 are home to the highest peaks and mountain glaciers of the world
(Roohi, 2007).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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According to studies conducted by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the
Karakoram Mountain tops are largely snow covered. The Karakoram has greater ice and snow
cover than any other mountain system in the world. In the Hindu Kush and the Himalayas the
snow and ice cover are less extensive compared to the Karakoram. The snowline of the
Karakoram is about 5,100m to 5,600m in the south and 4,700m to 5,300m in the north (UNDP,
2008).
Figure 6 – Glacier distribution in HKH region of Pakistan
Source: Roohi (2007)
2.1. GLACIERS OF PAKISTAN
‘Glaciers and glacial lakes are the barometers of climate change’ (Roohi, 2007). Glaciers are
major fresh water reserves that regulate the seasonal, annual and long term cycles of stream flow.
The maximum precipitation occurs in the 4500m – 6000m belt, the glaciers on the greater
Himalayan mountain tops are dubbed the 'Third Pole', for having the largest concentration of
glaciers outside the polar caps (Jillani et al, 2009). Pakistan’s glaciers are spread over an area of
about 18,500 km2 (Hewitt, 2005). Half a billion people in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and
a quarter billion downstream relying on glacial melt waters could be seriously affected due to
climate change. Glacial melt will affect freshwater flows with dramatic adverse effects on
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biodiversity, people and livelihoods, with possible long-term implications on the regional food
security. (WWF, 2005)
As narrated in the BBC television series, The Planet Earth, Baltoro glacier in the Karakoram is
the biggest mountain glacier on earth. It is 69 km long and more than 3 miles wide. It is so large
that it can be seen from space (BBC, 2006). The glacier gives rise to the Shigar River, which is a
tributary of the Indus River. Several large tributary glaciers feed the main Baltoro glacier
including the Godwin-Austin glacier flowing south from K2 and various Gasherbrum glaciers
flowing from the Gasherbrum peaks. This confluence of glaciers, called Concordia, not only
marks the origins of the Indus river but is also home to four of the world’s fourteen and
Pakistan’s five eight-thousanders; namely K2, Gasherbrum I, Gasherbrum II and Broad peak. As
suggested by the term eight-thousander, all of these peaks are above 8000 meters above sea
level. Another large glacier system is also located in the Karakoram and is composed of eight
glaciers over 50km in length and 20 over 30km long (Hewitt, 1998), including the 63 km long
Biafo glacier and the 49 km long Hispar glacier (Wikipedia.org, 2009).
Figure 7 – Baltoro Glacier
Aerial View of the Baltoro
Glacier towards Concordia
with Gasherbrum IV,
Gasherbrum I, Baltoro Kangri
and Chogolisa.
Source: Wikipedia (2005)
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Figure 8 – K2 and Concordia
A photo of Himalayan
Mountains from air near K2.
Source: Wikipedia (2001)
Table 1 – Summary of Glacier Inventory
Summary of glacier inventory
Basins
Basin
Area
(Km2)
Glaciated
area (Km2)
No. of
Glaciers
Total
Length
(Km)
Ice
Reserves
(Km3)
Swat
14656
223.55
233
330
12.22
Chitral
15322
1903.67
542
1416
258.82
Gilgit
14082
968.10
585
1185
83.35
Hunza
16389
4677.34
1050
2915
808.79
Shigar
7382
2240.08
194
829
581.27
Shyok
10235
3547.84
372
1093
891.80
Indus
32571
688.00
1098
1042
46.38
Shingo
4680
36.91
172
100
1.01
Astor
4214
607.03
588
549
47.93
Jhelum
9198
148.18
384
258
6.94
Total
128730.8
15040.70
5218
9718
2738.51
Source: Roohi et al. (2005)
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2.2. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF GLACIERS
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Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
A glacier has two distinct zones. The upper section of the glacier that receives the most snowfall
is called the accumulation zone which makes up 60 – 70% of the total surface area of the glacier.
The lower end of the glacier is known as the ablation zone where more ice is lost from melt than
gained from snow fall. The altitude separating the two zones is called the equilibrium line
(UNDP, 2008). The Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) in the Karakoram is 4800 m with direct
snowfall and it is 4500 m for avalanche nourished basins. Above these ELAs about 80% of the
basin areas consist of steep, avalanched rock walls (Hewitt, 2009).
The glaciers in Pakistan are high activity glaciers with high flow rates of 100 to 1000 m/yr and
move through diverse climate zones (UNDP, 2008). The glacier ablation patterns in Pakistan are
governed by high summer heat radiation, steep barren slopes of the mountains and debris cover
especially at the lower parts of the ablation zone. The maximum radiation balance measured on
Batura glacier was over 27.9 MWm-2. Scientists estimate that melting accounts for 80% of the
heat loss whereas evaporation and convection are responsible for the rest (UNDP, 2008).
The rising global and regional temperatures and the resulting glacier surges and melt are leading
to the formation of glacial lakes in the northern parts of Pakistan. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB)
with an area of 128,730.8 km2 is home to 5218 identified glaciers forming higher elevations of
Himalayas, Karakoram and the Hindu Kush. The perennial snow and ice cover makes up an area
of about 15,040.8 km2 and a total length of about 9718km – forming an immense reservoir of
fresh water in an otherwise arid, drought prone region (Hewitt, 1998). This glaciated area makes
up 11.68% of the total area of the UIB and contributes a volume of 2738.5 km3 of ice reserves. In
addition, 2420 glacial lakes have been identified in the HKH region out of which 52 lakes are
characterized as potentially dangerous, on the verge of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)
(Roohi, 2007).
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Research Officer-Water Policy
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Figure 9 - The Karakoram Range
Source: NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (2000)
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Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
3. CLIMATE, GLACIERS AND WATER BALANCE OF NORTHERN PAKISTAN
To study the impact of climate change on the glaciers, watersheds and ecosystems, there is a
need to understand the global distribution of precipitation in compliance with change in
temperature and other weather systems that play a role in warming, as that may have a more
direct impact on human wellbeing and ecosystem dynamics. Mountainous regions generally
require a much larger number of weather stations than flatter regions to acquire an accurate
estimate of weather and microclimate conditions.
The existing number of climate stations in the northern areas of Pakistan is much less than the
minimum desired number ordained by the World Meteorological Organization. Further, the data
provided by the climatological network in the UIB is largely biased as most of the stations are
located in valley floors as opposed to mountain slopes and tops (Archer and Fowler, 2006).
Stations have only recently been installed at higher elevations (above 4700m) to monitor
precipitation and contribution of snowfall to precipitation and the hydrological system. However,
regions above 5000m still remain largely unexplored (Winiger et al, 2005).
3.1. TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
It has been endorsed by the IPCC that climate change is largely anthropogenic. According to
NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, the year 2005 was the warmest year on record on
earth in the period of instrumental data (GISS, 2007). Temperature trends in Pakistan over the
past 50 years were determined through time series data. It was observed that in the North-eastern
Mountains, maximum and minimum temperatures have dropped while temperatures have
increased in the western parts of the country. During the summer months and the monsoon
season, the maximum temperatures and precipitation show an increasing trend in all the regions
(Roohi, 2007).
According to Archer and Fowler (2006), the mean and minimum summer temperatures show a
consistent cooling in the UIB whereas the winter mean and maximum show significant increases.
The western and trans-Himalayan region has also observed an increase in the Diurnal
Temperature Range (DTR) due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. The cloud cover
associated with precipitation reducing incoming solar radiation and trapping outgoing radiation,
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COMSTECH
reduces the surface temperature which has been corroborated with Archer and Fowler’s findings
of increased summer and winter precipitation in the UIB region (Archer and Fowler, 2006).
The altitude and latitude are the greatest influences on temperature in the mountains.
Temperature change with elevation, known as the environmental lapse rate, in addition to
latitudinal influences on temperature, produce generalized climate patterns in the Himalaya
Karakoram and Hindu Kush region that range from tropical to frigid alpine. As we move farther
from the equator, the surface temperature as a function of latitude, without the effects of varying
altitude, drops by approximately 1 °C for every 145 km traveled from south to north (Wikipedia.
org, 2009). The environmental lapse rate is affected by radiation, convection, and condensation;
it averages about 6.5 °C per kilometer in the lower atmosphere (troposphere). The temperature
change due to the rising or sinking of an air parcel is known as the adiabatic lapse rate
(Britannica.com). The western Himalayas and the Karakoram mountain ranges are situated at the
confluence of different latitudes, elevations and weather systems than their eastern counterparts
and therefore experience higher temperatures and disparate weather conditions. Most of these
glaciers originate in high altitude watersheds of above 7000m, have an elevation range of 4500m
and descend as low as 2300m which is even lower than the eastern Himalayas of India and
Nepal. The glaciers in question are different in size, elevation and latitude when compared to
their eastern, polar and mid-latitude counterparts used to monitor recent global changes. Other
than elevation, factors that contribute to glacial expansion are regional climate, glacier
nourishment and extreme vertical gradients where as debris cover, steepness and thermal
characteristics determine the ice mass of the region (Hewitt, 2005).
3.2. HYDROLOGY AND WATER BALANCE OF THE H-K-H REGION
If it were not for the grand Himalayan mountain ranges, the rain clouds sweeping up from the
Indian Ocean would have crossed over the Indian subcontinent into the Central Asia leaving
behind a scorching desert (Howladar et al, 2008). The UIB lying between the Western Himalayas
and the Karakoram at the border between tropical and continental influences has much different
climate controls than its Eastern Himalayan counterparts.
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3.2.1. PRECIPITATION
The region is sensitive to climate change more so because it comes under the influence of three
major weather systems: the sub Mediterranean regime of mainly winter, westerly storms; the
Indian summer monsoon; and the Tibetan anticyclone. The Indian monsoon wind system is
responsible for the late summer rainfall on the lower reaches of the western Himalayan
Mountains. As for the trans-Himalayan regions of Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains, the
prime source of precipitation and glacier ablation is the carried on westerly disturbances
originating in the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea region during winter and spring seasons.
(Archer and Fowler, 2006).
Based on time series analysis of stations located in valleys, four distinct rainfall regimes can be
identified in the H-K-H region; (1) Western Himalaya region has slight monsoonal influences
with an annual precipitation range of 900 to 1300mm in the altitudes between 1000 and
4000masl (meters above sea level) and increasing to 2300mm at 5500masl (2) Hindu Kush
region is influenced by the Mediterranean disturbances in winter and spring with an annual
average precipitation of 500mm at the elevation of 1000masl to 1300mm at 5500masl (3)
Northwest Karakoram sees rainfall occurring in winter and occasionally in spring and summer
with precipitation ranging from 150 - 500mm at 1500 – 3000masl to more than 1700mm at
5500masl and (4) Northern Karakoram rainfall pattern experiences occasional rainfall all year
round with less than 150mm at 1100 – 3000masl to almost 500mm at 3500masl (Winiger et al.,
2005).
Precipitation measurements based on the stations installed on elevations up to 4700m suggest
that more than 90 % of annual precipitation is in the form of snow at elevations at 5000m where
as in lower region snow makes up not more than 10% of the total precipitation. A combination of
results acquired from satellite derived snow data, physical data and regression analysis of the
ablation process to predict the future outcomes is shown in figure 10 (Winiger et al, 2005).
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Figure 10 – Total Annual Precipitation in Karakoram 1991 – 99.
Source: Winiger et al (2005)
In the Karakoram Range the maximum precipitation zone roughly lies between 4800 - 6000m
above sea level which falls entirely within the accumulation zone elevations of most glaciers.
The average annual precipitation in the upper elevations is 1000 – 2000mm where as in the lower
elevations where most termini are located the average annual precipitation is as low as 150 –
300mm as measured from stations located in the valleys. Two thirds of precipitation in the
Karakoram region is a result of the westerly’s influences and one third have a strong monsoon
component (Hewitt, 2009).
3.2.2. RUNOFF OVER TIME AND SPACE IN THE HKH REGION
The mountains are a highly complex topography especially when the mountains under questions
include the highest reaches of the world. When determining the water balance in these mountains
one needs to consider the rainfall, snowfall, snow drifts, snow melt, evaporation, avalanches,
glaciers, different types of ablations; and surface and sub surface runoff. In most cases runoff is
the most discernable of all variables but does not paint an accurate picture of the complex water
balance of the mountains regions.
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The most critical source of the Indus River flow is the precipitation in the UIB and the storage
capacity in the watershed of ephemeral and perennial snow packs and glacier ice. The occurrence
of peak seasonal and daily flow is dependent on the availability of heat energy to melt the snow
and glacier ice. Factors affecting storages and energy availability in a watershed are (1) the
elevation range and (2) the glacierized proportion of the watershed. The elevation determines the
occurrence, type and magnitude of precipitation and is also associated with the availability of
energy inputs for snow and ice melt. At lower elevations where the precipitation is largely in the
form of rain, there is little time lapse between the precipitation event and runoff generation. Also,
the snow at lower elevation melts faster to form runoff than at higher elevations. From the
elevations above the snowline, the snow and ice melt runoff depends entirely on the radiant heat
input rather than the precipitation event which makes it increasingly difficult to predict and
measure runoff based only on gauges positioned in lower elevations. Glaciers on the other hand
serve as the long term storage that offsets the variability in the annual precipitation by allowing
for melt water above and beyond the precipitation events (Archer, 2003).
3.2.3. THREE TYPES OF MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHEDS
In the Himalayas three main types of watersheds exist:
(1) Glacier fed watersheds: occurring at heights of 4000 – 7000m, and have runoffs generated
from the melt of permanent snow and glaciers.
(2) Snow fed watersheds: the runoff is generated by rain and snow melt with the ratio of snow
melt increasing with altitude. The snow melt is from the snow fall occurring in the previous
winter season which is completely melted away, such watersheds occur at elevations of 2000
– 4000m.
(3) Rain fed watersheds: the run off is completely generated by rainfall and occurs in altitudes
from 500 – 2000m (Singh and Bengtsson, 2005). Figure 11 shows a schematic diagram of the
three basin and their altitudinal locations.
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Figure 11 - A schematic presentation of the rain fed, snow fed and glacier fed basins.
Source: Singh and Bengtsson (2005)
An econometric study by Archer (2003) suggests that there are different climatic controls
governing the seasonal river flow in three distinct watersheds of the UIB;
1. The high altitude watersheds of Karakoram have runoff dominated by glacier melt. The
runoff ranges between 168mm and 974mm with the individual watershed behavior
depending on exposure to precipitation bearing winds and radiation. These watersheds
have large glaciated portions with rivers Hunza, Shigar and Shyok dependent largely on
energy input signified by seasonal changes in temperature. Rivers Shyok and Hunza have
their highest contribution in the summer months of July and August with low flow
occurring in the winter months. The rivers Hunza and Gilgit nearly double the runoff of
Indus below the confluence by contributing flows of 700 and 800mm respectively where
a significant portion of their flow comes from glacier melt in the center of Karakoram
(Archer, 2003).
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2. Mid-altitude watersheds are located in the south of Karakoram. The rivers running
through these watersheds are Astore, Kunhar and Swat which have summer flows
drawing runoff from the previous winter’s precipitation. The highest river runoffs are
exhibited in these Indus River tributaries, which have a runoff of 1000mm up to 1400mm
per annum. These catchments have winter rainfalls at lower elevations and snow at higher
elevations which provide for the flow through melt in summer months (Archer, 2003).
3. Foothill watersheds with rivers like Khan Khwar and Siran have their runoff generated
entirely by rain fall in winter and during monsoon (Archer, 2003).
As observed by Archer and Fowler (2006), the summer runoff from the middle elevation areas is
highly dependent on the ephemeral snow cover formed by the winter precipitation. The runoff
increases as the snow cover increases and vice versa. As for those snow fed watersheds where
higher summer temperatures lead to increased evaporative losses, the summer runoff decreases
due to limiting snow cover. Archer and Fowler have observed a 20% reduction in the runoff of
the Hunza River and other rivers of the region. The river basins in the greater Himalayan region
are relatively more vulnerable to climate variability as they are fed by snow and glaciers (Singh
and Bengtsson, 2005).
The runoff in the high elevation watersheds fed by glaciers and permanent snow pack, such as
the tributaries of Indus River, increases in the summer and is not impacted by the winter
precipitation at all. A detailed map of the tributaries of the Indus River is shown in figure 12.
Further scientific analysis of two high elevation tributaries of River Indus; Shyok and Hunza
rivers, suggests that a 1 degree Celsius increase in mean summer temperature, due to
anthropogenic causes, would result in a 17% increase in the summer runoff of river Shyok and
16% increase for river Hunza. These two watersheds combined provide 25% of inflow to Tarbela
dam which is the main controlling structure for the largest contiguous irrigation network in the
world (Archer and Fowler, 2006).
The Indus River and its main tributaries i.e., Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Bias, and Sutlej,
together form one of the largest river systems of the world. The Indus Irrigation system relies on
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half of its runoff generating from the snow and glacier melt from the Hindu Kush, Karakoram
and western Himalayan region where annual precipitation ranges between 1000mm to 4000mm
depending on location and time of measurement. The reasons why Pakistan is facing a severe
water shortage are abound including increasing demand for water, management and
infrastructural problems, reduced seasonal supply of water into the system are to name a few.
Some 70% of the Indus runoff is generated by seasonal monsoon rains in the lower elevations,
the rest comes from snow and glacier melt (Winiger et al, 2005).
Figure 12 - River Indus and its tributaries
Source: Wikipedia (2009)
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3.3. OBSERVED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE KARAKORAM ANOMALY
The aforementioned weather influences, recent warming trends, the atmospheric brown clouds
and other factors beyond the scope of this study have lead to observed changes in the glaciers
and the runoff in tributaries and rivers. The eastern Himalayas have retreated by 4.5% in the last
two decades due to reduced precipitation and increase in global and regional temperatures
(Eriksson et al., 2009). Most popular sources like IPCC and World Bank, report that in the
coming decades many glaciers in the region will retreat while some may even disappear and the
Indus River will eventually run dry after decades of glacier melt (Hewitt, 2009).
However, Professor Kenneth Hewitt of Cold Regions Research Center, Wilfred Laurier
University, argues that “there has been no significant change in the perennial ice cover of the
Upper Indus basin since the 1960s and [that there is] no basis for talk of disappearing glaciers”
and explains this phenomenon as the “Karakoram anomaly”. Dozens of Karakoram glaciers have
thickened and surged since the mid 90s. The discharges from the Karakoram Rivers have
declined by 20% since the 60s which is a strong indication of ice storage increase and glacier
growth (Hewitt, 2009).
On the contrary, a temporal image based study in the Karakoram Range indicates mixed trends
of glacial response in recent past (Roohi, 2010 personal communications). The response of some
of the glaciers in the same complex is in line with Hewitt’s observation whereas some of the
glaciers of the same complex indicate declining aerial extent and some showed no response. This
mixed observation indicates that the glacial response is not dictated by one factor only vis-a-vis
thermal fluctuations, but a more complex interaction of the controlling factors are responsible for
glacial response. Therefore, it is necessary to account for all the factors acting concurrently while
making a generalized statement for larger areas (Roohi, 2010 personal communications).
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Figure 13 - The Central Karakoram Himalaya.
Source: Hewitt (2005).
The map in figure 13 summarizes changes observed in the period 1997–2002 and glacial surges
since 1986. Using ground measurements, observations and satellite imagery in the 80s and the
90s, Hewitt ascertained his hypothesis that glaciers of lengths 10 – 20 km were advancing and
those of size 40 – 70 km were experiencing thickening. Most advancing glaciers have steep
facades and active ice fronts on the advancing lobes whereas the retreating termini have softer
fronts, buried in debris and giving way to vegetation. Due to a dearth of a constant measurement
program and the high costs and difficulties of working in this region, the understanding of the
glaciers is not complete. Current observational challenges include the inability to discern vertical
changes, of less than 10 – 15m, in the glaciers through satellite imaging, and the debris covered
termini of glaciers tend to mask their horizontal change (Hewitt, 2005).
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In addition to snow fall trends and debris covered termini, the Karakoram anomaly is explained
by certain conditions that recent studies have shown to be more explicable.
3.3.1. INFLUENCES OF REGIONAL CLIMATE
As mentioned earlier, the Karakoram region is influenced by three weather systems; the westerly
circulation and the Tibetan cyclonic storms in winters and the monsoons in summers.
Measurements in the eighties showed that more than 60% of the snow accumulation in the higher
altitudes takes place in winters and more than 30% in summers during Monsoons. ‘The
[Karakoram] glaciers are intermediate between the summer accumulation types of the Greater
Himalaya and winter accumulation type of European Alps’ (Hewitt, 2005).
3.3.2. THE EFFECT OF ELEVATION
The glacier mass balance depends on the accumulation of snow on the upper portion of the
glacier and ice ablation at the glacial terminus, moderated by the flow conditions in between
these two zones. In the Karakoram, the precipitation increases by 5 to 10 times between the
termini at 2500m and the accumulation zones located above 4800m. At altitudes between 5000 6000m, maximum precipitation takes place which means that most accumulation zones in the
Karakoram are receiving maximum precipitation such as the Biafo glacier (Hewitt, 2005).
However, almost two thirds of glaciers are fed by avalanched snow and have ablation zones
much larger than their geographic accumulation zones. In these glaciers, such as the BarpuBualtar glacier system, steep high rock walls trap excessive snow that feeds the glacier. The
conditions at higher altitudes and climate change impact the intensity, pattern and qualities of
avalanches, the conditions down slope, ice temperature and debris characteristics (Hewitt, 2005).
The ablation is controlled largely by solar radiation with seasonal oscillation of temperatures due
to elevation and snow cover. Ablation occurs in the summer months of July and August, due to
the direct rays of sunlight, for duration no greater than a couple of months. During this time the
weather is a critical factor such as the number of sunny days, cloud cover and timing of first
snowfall. Summer storms typically reduce sunshine and snowfall shuts down ablation
completely. Ablation occurs where temperatures are above freezing and the amount of snow
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exposed by the seasonal melting of snow cover, thus ablation zone lies below the 5000m mark
(Hewitt, 2005).
3.3.3. SUPRAGLACIAL DEBRIS AND DUSTY ICE
Most glaciers in the Karakoram region have their termini penetrating the low altitude regions and
are covered with supraglacial debris and moraine which may reduce the effects of climate change
and ablation. What makes ice more sensitive to climate change is the presence of dirty ice, windblown dust or sediment particles introduced due to avalanche activity contributes to higher
melting rates which offset the protection provided by thick debris. Dirt and dust particles in the
ice make the snowflake heavier, and can cause cracks and breaks in the crystal making it easier
to melt (chemistry.about.com). Due to the heat absorption capacities of dust particles, sunny
weather leads to ice surface weathering or pitting of snow which improves the penetration and
further absorption of heat. In cloudy days dust and dirt get washed away and snow fall covers the
glacier with fresh clean snow retarding the ablation process. The altitudes for mass balance in the
central Karakoram are; 4500m -6000m for accumulation zones, and 3500m – 4300m for ablation
zone. The altitudes between 3500- 4600m experience the most dust enhanced ablation and the
ice below 3500m is protected by supraglacial debris (Hewitt, 2005).
3.3.4. THERMAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN GLACIERS
Mountain regions have complicated local profiles based on elevation and orientation of glacier.
As mentioned by Hewitt (2005) there are four different classes of temperature distribution in the
Karakoram:
(1) All ice is below melting point,
(2) The melting point is reached only at the bed,
(3) A basal layer of finite thickness is at the melting point and
(4) All ice is at the melting point except for a surface layer, about fifteen centimeters
thick, subject to seasonal variations in temperature.
All four of these conditions can be present on different locations of a given Karakoram glacier
and are responsible for the large number of surging glaciers (Hewitt, 2005).
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In temperate glaciers, the effect of climate change is specific to a change in mass balance of the
glaciers. The temperature of ice impacts the glacier in two ways; (1) through energy transfer that
brings ice to the melting point, and (2) glacier flow rates. The warming of ice below, through
heat transfer and friction, can increase movement within glaciers and surging. However these
slight subzero temperature changes are largely ignored in short term trend studies mostly because
the response to slight temperature changes are very slow as compared to polar and mid-latitude
glaciers, however, the subtropical high relief glaciers have factors that do hasten these responses.
As the primary determinants of ice temperature in the Karakoram region are the accumulation
zone snowfall and avalanche snow, any changes occurring here will be very crucial to altering
thermal conditions, such as temperature change in high altitude snowfall, transfer of heat to ice
below, or to bordering regions marking the boundary between cold and warm ice.
At high altitudes, cloud cover and increased precipitation in general and summer precipitation in
particular, introduce thermal inputs within a glacier through latent heat transfer, advective
transport of heat in the cloud moisture, and the orographic forcing of condensation lead to
increase in snowfall temperatures which determines the glacial ice temperatures. The steep
branches of Karakoram glaciers leading to the year round avalanches, that govern the ice mass
formation, become more frequent in spring and summer seasons. With thinning of ice due to
avalanching, the inner sub-glacial parts are exposed to the ambient weather conditions (Hewitt,
2005). Summer temperature reductions and increase in winter precipitation means reduction in
ablation and increase in accumulation of Karakoram glaciers which is manifested in the observed
expansion and thickening of high relief glaciers in the region (Archer & Fowler, 2006).
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Figure 14 – Avalanches in the Karakoram
Source: Hewitt (2010)
3.4. GLACIER SURGES AND GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS (GLOF)
The glaciers that surge are inherently surging glaciers and have surged before. Glaciers surge due
to factors causing instability at the glacier bed. Triggering factors include fluctuation in thermal
or hydrological conditions acting alone or in combination. Surges are unpredictable events as
most surging glaciers are avalanche fed. The succession of relatively warm and dirty summer
avalanches and cold [clean] winter ones result in complex thermal layering and debris-rich zones
in the ice. Climate Change does not cause glaciers to surge but it can impact the timing of glacial
surges by impacting summer weather conditions and precipitation (Hewitt, 1998).
In the Karakoram there have been a total of 37 glacier surges since the 1860s, with an average of
1 in 5 years. There have been 15 observed surge events since 1985 with an average of 1 in 2
years (Hewitt, 2009). Studies show that due to steep slopes and summer radiation the glaciers
surge eastward, south-eastward, north-eastward and northward but rarely towards south and
west. The movement is towards warmer areas and regions located in lower altitudes. The snouts
of many glaciers are located in warmer regions such as valleys where melt water is abundant
sometimes enough to inundate the valleys, dam rivers examples include Passu and Hunza
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valleys. Other glacier related hazards in the northern regions include ice-rock avalanches,
landslides and glacial debris flows etc. (UNDP, 2008).
Figure 15 – Maedan Glacier - Ice thickness changes and downward transfer of ice
Ice cover in 2005
Ice cover in 2009
Source: Hewitt (2009)
A study by UNDP reveals that the northern regions of Pakistan have experienced many GLOF
events in the recent history impacting the socio economic make up, human life, geography,
infrastructure and the natural resources of the region. A GLOF event occurs when a supra glacial
lake is formed and over time it increases in size especially close to the terminus of the glacier
where glacial ice thickness is low. Due to high debris mix in this part when the size of the supra
glacial lake exceeds the threshold the lake water starts piping down and along with the glacial
base flow turns into a flood. As a consequence not only the lake drains out but the debris and
mud block the base flow thus resulting in the formation of sub-glacial lake. The sub-glacial lakes
are hard to observe and monitor and subsequently cause en-glacial floods (Roohi, 2010 Personal
Communications).
Much damage occurs when the water is accompanied by large amounts of glacial debris leading
to catastrophes miles from the outburst source. Climate change is one of the major causes of
GLOF events; other causes include seismic activity, snow avalanches, glacier retreat, steep
gradient and sudden glacial advance (UNDP, 2008). With 52 lakes on the verge of flooding, the
northern reaches of Pakistan are extremely vulnerable to GLOF events (Roohi, 2007).
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Most vulnerable areas include communities living close to or around glacier snouts, lakes or
river banks supplied by glacier melt runoff, arable and forested land lying in the flood plain or
path of glacier melt water, roads and infrastructure such as the Karakoram highway passing
through glacier valleys prone to land and mud slides; and fresh water pipelines supplying water
from lakes to nearby communities (UNDP, 2008).
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4. PAKISTAN RENEWABLE FRESHWATER STATISTICS
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According to Peter H. Gleick in his biennial report on fresh water resources; The World’s Water
2008 – 2009, Pakistan’s annual renewable water resources amount to 233.8 cubic kilometers and
the annual total fresh water withdrawals are 169.39 cubic kilometers with the agricultural sector
using 96% of all water withdrawals, closely followed by domestic and industrial withdrawals of
2% each respectively (Gleick, 2008).
Pakistan is a water stressed country bordering water scarcity. This is determined by the Malin
Falkenmark’s 'Water Stress Index' which divides the volume of available water resources for
each country by its population where a volume of 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year is
considered the level above which water shortage is rare and more localized. Levels below 1,000
cubic meters per capita per year begin to hamper human health, economic development and
general wellbeing. Levels below 500 cubic meters per capita per year are generally detrimental
to life. According to a report by UNEP (figure 17) 2.8 billion people in 48 countries will face
water stress or scarcity conditions by 2025. Population increases and growing demands are
projected to push all the West Asian countries into water scarcity conditions (UNEP, 2008).
Pakistan’s per capita annual fresh water withdrawals are 1,072 cubic meters according to 2003
statistics. This means that the country is water stressed bordering water scarcity 1 (Gleick, 2003).
Figure 16 - Increased global water stress
Source: UNEP (2009)
1 The current population census data of Pakistan is not available and these figures are based on the population
growth rate or projections made on earlier data. The actual level of water availability needs to be adjusted according
to actual population statistics.
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5. CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND LIVELIHOODS
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Glaciers are melting due to climate change and may continue to melt at a faster rate as the global
temperatures increase. The flow of rivers is predicted to increase initially and then decline over
time, seriously decreasing the available water in the country. GLOF events and dangerous lakes
will also continue to form with melting glaciers and increasing temperatures. The snowfall and
rainfall may increase along with these phenomena. There is a dire need to capture the excess
melt water and regulate the high river flows for future use and also inform and formulate
effective water policies that curb the water demand and enforce over all conservation of water.
Climate change may affect the water balance and the surface energy balance in the high altitude
regions impacting the local communities and the ecosystems. Change in magnitude and pattern
of climatic parameters and the consequent water balance pose a reduction in the crop yield by
30% in the South Asian region. There may be massive dry weather water shortages as glacier
melt water makes up more than 50% of the Indus (Eriksson et al, 2009). Given the complexity of
the region and no clear studies determining what really is happening to the glaciers, there is a
speculation that the country’s rivers may become seasonal and the monsoons unpredictable.
Although the Karakoram anomaly does point to expanding and surging glaciers, this observation
cannot be extrapolated to the entire western Himalayan region. Climate change has long term
implications on food, water and energy security on which the country’s entire economy relies
(Hilton, 2010).
As far as the impact of climate change to mountain regions is concerned, which are speckled
with widely ranging climatically different zones, ecosystems, micro habitats and biodiversity,
have ecosystems that are sensitive to climate change and are projected to either shift to higher
regions, allow for more suitable species to flourish or become extinct. The latitude of forest
boundaries may also shift to higher elevations (Eriksson et al, 2009).
Another serious impact of climate change and its observed responses in the mountainous region
is on health conditions. Health is affected either by direct impact of temperature changes,
droughts or floods, or indirectly due to climate induced economic disruption from factors such as
crop failure, mud slides, flashfloods, drought and associated malnutrition and famine. Further
health can be affected by spread of disease due to changing environmental make up such as
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vector borne diseases including malaria, dengue and diarrhea, and seasonal incidences of heat
stress causing endemic morbidity and mortality in the region (Eriksson et al, 2009). The
infrastructure such as dams, roads, bridges and other communication systems is also at risk from
climate change as events like land slides, torrential rains, flash floods may increase and low
flows in dry seasons and GLOF events may affect the hydropower production and infrastructure
requiring structural changes in the system to cater for the variability in the system over time.
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6. DISCUSSION
The real impact of climate change on the extraordinarily heterogeneous topography of the HKH
cryosphere is not understood well enough to estimate the real impact of the expanding
Karakoram glaciers in the higher elevations and the increased GLOF events in the lower reaches
of the region. The studies on glaciers that have been conducted so far, although thorough in their
own respect, are scattered widely in space and time. Climate change impact on the northern
reaches of Pakistan has a region specific response based on its climate regime and the elevation
ranges of the glaciers, the average shifts in temperature and precipitation and how these pan out
over the entire heterogeneous region as there is a five to ten times increase in precipitation and a
large drop in temperatures.
The downstream effects of the change in snow and ice coverage are also not fully understood due
to the nature of the region and the studies conducted so far. There is a lack of baseline studies for
most areas, the study teams and organizations seldom collaborate or share data and the
glaciologists working in this sub tropical temperate region require both scientific training and
mountaineering skills which is why the history of glaciology in the region is short. Most areas
above 4000 masl lack climate stations to measure climate variables such as perennial snow and
ice cover, runoff, hydrology, temperature and precipitation to draw an accurate temporal picture
of the past and current situation based on which future predictions can be made.
Climate modeling is unreliable over varying elevations, terrain and climatic conditions and needs
to be corroborated with data collected in the field to get the real picture of precipitation at high
altitudes. Most ground data collected in Pakistan is sparse and based on valley stations that can
not be extrapolated to the higher elevations and the mountain tops. As most of these glaciers lie
in sensitive security centers, many foreign experts may face difficulty accessing these areas or
information about them. Efforts need to be made to allow foreign scientists to conduct research
and collaborate with the local scientists. In addition to that, where required, scientific projects
should be outsourced or carried out in collaboration with countries that have advantage in a
specific scientific realm or technology infrastructure to acquire a solid scientific basis for
problems related to climate change.
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In the event of irregular water supply as a result of climate change, diversion of water at source
by upstream users, periodic drought spells brought about by the El Niño effect, flooding due to
GLOF events or glacier melt, or the simple seasonal fluctuations, it is not adequate to focus just
on the total yields. The main focus should be on balancing of water supply between when the
water is desperately needed by farmers downstream in the months of Spring through Autumn and
the sheer overlap of high flow generated by glaciers and ice melt and the monsoon generated
floods. Instead of letting nature take its course and allowing precious fresh water to drain into the
Arabian Sea in times of flood, small and medium dams should be built for storage against flood
capacity. An adequate policy would focus on sustainable water resource management.
A holistic approach towards studying the impact of climate change adaptation would entail
approaching the issue from (1) the perspective of local areas and communities as local effects
vary greatly within a given region, therefore they need to be studied and monitored
independently with a great emphasis placed on glacial behavior, water resources, biodiversity,
food production, disaster risk and (2) by evaluating the impacts downstream where the effect of
these individual changes becomes compound, only then the adaptive strategies can be rendered
holistic and effective.
Disaster risk reduction especially in the northern areas of Pakistan should be seen as an integral
part of water resource management which should include future water and climate change
scenarios scaled up from watersheds to river basins to assist in determining water allocation for
households, agriculture and ecosystems. Water storage on a local level based on traditional
practices such as rain water harvesting need special encouragement in mountain regions.
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7. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Pakistan is fast turning into a water scarce country, the gap between demand and supply is
increasing at an alarming rate. The recent droughts, changing climate patterns and glacial melt
will exacerbate this problem giving rise to severe stresses in all the water dependent sectors.
Drastic policy measures are needed to augment the current supply of fresh water and to meet its
increasing demand in a sustainable manner.
ADAPTATION AND REHABILITATION OF THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES AND EARLY WARNING
SYSTEMS
•
Timely disaster prevention and mitigation is of urgent need in the mountain communities
with the help of early warning systems, disaster risk assessment and awareness creation in
the threatened communities. A national community based risk reduction, relocation and
rehabilitation framework should be built for the threatened communities.
•
Mountain communities susceptible to natural disasters and difficulties associated with by
climate change already face structural inequalities such as lack of access to health care, lack
of adequate supplies of food, water and energy. There is a strong need for adaptation by
these communities through effective governance, community mobilization and change of
behavioral practices to improve the living conditions such as introducing new farming
practices, poverty alleviation and empowerment of women in the light of climate change.
INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE
•
Wean the agriculture off of the monsoons by investing in additional hydraulic infrastructures
to regulate and manage the rivers systems by storing water, to mitigate the hydrological
variability and to increase reliability of water services.
•
Investment in broad based water resources interventions such as major canal systems, dams,
rain water harvesting systems and broad based water service interventions such as water
utilities and sanitation for the masses including the poor segments of the society.
•
Investment in repairing and maintaining the existing water infrastructure especially that
which treats and provides drinking water to the urban centers removes the sewage from the
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cities and supplies water for irrigation. Improving the efficiency of the existing infrastructure
offers much less potential for corruption than awarding contracts for new large scale projects.
•
Alleviate economic impacts of hydrological variability through a market mechanism which
allows trade between water deficit and surplus regions of the country where not only fresh
water is traded between competing users e.g. surplus irrigation water can be sold to orchards
downstream when there is less rain.
•
Protection of water quality through investment in improved water treatment infrastructure to
reduce negative impacts such as disease and environmental damage and lower health costs.
•
Investment in institutions that build human capacity required to operate and maintain the
water infrastructure to maximize the returns on the investment in this infrastructure.
•
Effective policies need to be put in place that enforces treatment of industrial effluent and
sewage before it is let into the natural water bodies.
•
Policies also need to ensure adequate treatment of drinking water before it is delivered to the
households so that disease and environmental damage can be controlled and health costs can
be lowered. Moreover if everyone has access to clean tap water billions would not be
allocated to bottled water which is ten times as expensive and much more damaging to the
environment.
PRESERVING THE NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
•
Conserving and enhancing the natural infrastructure that is the aquifers, watersheds, lakes
and wetlands can provide artificial storage, regulation and water treatment infrastructure and
services.
•
Investing in wetland creation and restoration can help recharge the dwindling groundwater
levels, purify and treat water for irrigation and other services, and create habitats for plants
and migratory birds.
•
Through Inter basin water diversions (from a flooding river to a dry area) where viable and
possible, catchment quality especially the degraded landscapes can be improved through tree
plantations and this would also provide the poor with livelihood opportunities such as
forestry and orchard farming.
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AGRICULTURAL REFORMS
•
Investing in improving the age old, over used and poorly maintained irrigation system to
ensure a more equitable distribution of water across the command area.
•
Policies should be put in place discouraging illegal diversions from the system to the large
land owners at the expense of the poorest of farmers.
•
A shift towards furrow and drip irrigation is necessary to make the irrigation system more
efficient and conserve ground water resources. The local universities and industry should be
engaged in designing and manufacturing these systems respectively and the farmers should
be trained to effectively use and maintain them.
•
In addition to water conservation by the agriculture sector, the farming community should
also adapt by cultivating crops more suitable to drought conditions. This includes switching
to crops that are more heat tolerant and less water intensive or switching from grains to fruits
and vegetables in hot and humid regions or to lower yield crops in hot and dry regions as a
prudent approach given the uncertainty behind effects of climate change.
CAPACITY BUILDING AND COLLABORATION WITH INTERNATIONAL BODIES
•
The government must set up a separate body conducting research on climate change and the
impact on glaciers.
•
This body should deploy climate stations on all the reaches especially the higher elevations
of the region, map the glaciers using satellite imaging and conduct field research in
collaboration with foreign glaciologists and other international institutions, to determine the
likely fate of the glaciers.
•
The local glaciologists should be provided with the necessary scientific training, access to all
the climate data collected by other government bodies, state of the art equipment and
mountaineering skills so that they can carry out a thorough study of the region and monitor
the seasonal changes in glaciers and lakes on a regular basis.
•
There is a need for a national geological database, following the pattern of United States
Geological Survey (USGS), which hosts meteorological, hydrological and glaciological data
of the northern regions. This database should be linked with all institutions collecting and
updating data and needs to be accessible openly by the public.
42
•
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
Data collection and field research on very high altitudes are extremely expensive and skill
oriented ventures so for that purpose collaboration with foreign glaciologists, meteorologists
and hydrologists is of utmost importance to built capacities of local scientists.
•
In addition to that, where required, scientific projects should be outsourced or carried out in
collaboration with countries that have advantage in a specific scientific realm or technology
infrastructure to acquire a solid scientific basis for problems related to climate change.
WATER PRICING TO CONSERVE SUPPLY AND ENSURE EQUITY
•
The government should introduce progressive water taxation or increasing block tariffs (IBT)
wherein a minimum volume of water (first block) consumed is set at a fixed cost of water a
household pays, where as the subsequent blocks of water are charged at an increasing rate by
equating the price to the marginal cost of a given volume of water consumed. The cost also
encompasses the value of the property the meter is attached to. This form of taxation of
course is confined to those households that have a metered access. The IBTs promote equity
by forcing wealthy households to cross subsidize the water usage of poor households as
restricting demand leaves more water in the system to provide for those that do not have
metered access.
•
Similarly water used in an agricultural land should also be taxed; larger land owners should
pay a progressively higher price for the water they consume and those closer to the water
source must also compensate for those at the tail ends of water courses instead of paying the
same amount ‘abiyana’ – fixed price per acreage for the entire year regardless of location.
•
Tax revenues from large agricultural land owners and industrial users can also cross
subsidize poor residential customers. Very high price of the last block discourages wasteful
uses, conserves water and drives a shift towards deficit or more efficient irrigation methods.
FORESTS AND WATERSHEDS
•
The government needs to have a stronger silviculture policy particularly in the northern areas
where the rate of forest loss is ever increasing. Forests contribute significantly in the water
cycle by trapping excess water, protecting the top soil and preserving our watersheds.
43
•
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
Forests also prevent landslides and offset the impact of floods. National policies should
integrate forestation into their climate change adaptation mechanisms preferably through
participation of local communities.
44
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was carried out in collaboration with Dr. Rakhshan Roohi of the National Agricultural
Research Center and Mr. Ghazanfar Ali of Global Change Impact Study Center. The author
wishes to thank both the scientists for their profound insight and guidance. Special thanks to Dr.
Atta-ur-Rahman for giving the author the opportunity to conduct this study and to Dr. Murad
Jabay Bino of INWRDAM, for supervising this work. The author’s deepest appreciation goes to
Dr. S. T. K. Naim of COMSTECH and Dr Rakhshan Roohi for reviewing this work. Profound
thanks to Dr. Kenneth Hewitt for sharing his precious work and experiences with the author.
Continued thanks to Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, advisor on Science and Technology, Planning
Commission, for making the author a member of the National Task Force on Climate Change
which served as an ideal platform to network and gather resources for this study.
45
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
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COMSTECH
IPCC. (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
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Vuillermoz (Ed.), Mountains Witnesses of Global Changes. (pp. 329 - 340). Elsevier.
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Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
FIGURES AND TABLES
Cover Photograph
Wikipedia (2004) K2 8611[Image] Retrieved December 2009 from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:K2_8611.jpg
Figure 1 - Projected precipitation changes
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [image]
Figures 3.3. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Figure 2 - Projected temperature changes
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [image]
Figures 1.1. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Figure 3 - Projected changes in runoff
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [image]
Figures 3.5. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Figure 4 - Rapid retreat of greater Himalayan glaciers in comparison to the global average
Eriksson, M,. Jianchu, X., Shrestha, A., Vaidya, R., Nepal, A., Sandstrom, K. (2009) Rapid
retreat of greater Himalayan glaciers in comparison to the global average. [image]
Retrieved October 2009 from http://books.icimod.org/demo/uploads/tmp/icimodthe_changing_himalayas.pdf
Figure 5 - Glaciers and Mountain Ranges of Pakistan
Hewitt, K. (2009, October 20). “Glacier change and the Himalayan Cryosphere”. Lecture
presented at Global Change Impact Study Center. Islamabad, Pakistan.
Figure 6 – Glacier distribution in HKH region of Pakistan
Roohi, R. (2007) Research on global changes in Pakistan. In R. Baudo, G. Tartari, and E.
Vuillermoz (Ed.), Mountains Witnesses of Global Changes. Figure 35.1.( pp. 331). Elsevier.
Figure 7 – Baltoro Glacier
Wikipedia (2005). Baltoro Glacier from Air. [Photograph] Retrieved November 2009 from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Baltoro_glacier_from_air.jpg#filelinks
Figure 8 – K2 and Concordia
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Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
Wikipedia (2005). Himalayan mountains from air. [Photograph] Retrieved November 2009
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Himalayan_mountains_from_air_001.jpg
Figure 9 - The Karakoram Range
Goddard Institute of Space Studies (2000) Retrieved September 2009 from
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/0/515/baltoro_earthkam.jpg
Figure 10 – Total Annual Precipitation in Karakoram 1991 – 99.
Winiger, M., Gumpert, M., Yamout, H. (2005) Karakorum-Hindukush-western Himalaya:
assessing high altitude water resources. Hydrological Processes, 19, Figure 8. (pp.2336).
Figure 11 - A schematic presentation of the rain fed, snow fed and glacier fed basins.
Singh, P., Bengtsson, L. (2005) Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation fro the
rain fed, snow fed and glacier fed basins in the Himalayan region. Journal of Hydrology, 300,
Fig 1(pp. 142).
Figure 12 - River Indus and its tributaries
Wikipedia (2009) Indus River [Image] Retrieved December 2009 from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Indus_river.svg
Figure 13 - The central Karakoram Himalaya.
Hewitt, K. (2005). The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect,’
Karakoram Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25, Figure 1. (pp. 333)
Figure 14–Avalanches in Karakoram
Kenneth Hewitt (personal communication, January 4, 2010)
Figure 15 – Maedan Glacier - Ice thickness changes and downward transfer of ice
Hewitt, K. (2009, October 20). “Glacier change and the Himalayan Cryosphere”. Lecture
presented at Global Change Impact Study Center. Islamabad, Pakistan.
Figure 16- Increased global water stress
Philippe Rekacewicz (Le Monde diplomatique), (February 2006). “Increased global water
stress”. Published in 2009 by United Nations Environment Program. Environmental
knowledge for change.
http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0400-waterstress-EN.jpg
Table 1 – Summary of Glacier Inventory
Roohi, R., Mool, P., Ashraf, A., Hussain, S. A., Naz,R., P. K. Mool, P. K., Bajracharya, S. R.
(2005) Indus basin, Pakistan Hindu Kush – Karakoram –Himalaya. Inventory of Glaciers and
49
Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
Glacial Lakes and the Identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
Affected by Global Warming in the Mountains of HKH Region. Final report developed in the
form of a CD.
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Mariya Absar
Research Officer-Water Policy
COMSTECH
ACRONYMS
IPCC
AR4
HKH
UIB
OIC
NASA
GISS
GHG
CFC
UNDP
WWF
ELA
GLOF
DTR
MASL
INWRDAM
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
4th Assessment Report
Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush
Upper Indus Basin
Organization of Islamic Conference
National Air and Space Agency
Goddard Institute of Space Studies
Greenhouse Gas
Chlorofluorocarbon
United Nations Development Program
World Wildlife Fund
Equilibrium Line Altitude
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood
Diurnal Temperature Range
Meters Above Sea Level
Inter-Islamic Network on Water Resources Development and
Management
51