Section 6 – 3B: Finding probabilities involving Z scores The probability that a number in the z distribution is less than a given z value is the area under the z curve that is LEFT of the z value The area under the z curve that is to the left of a given Z value represents the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the Z value. Find P( z < –2.1 ) If we want to know the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the negative z value of –2.1 we need to find the area to the left of z = –2.1 The yellow area to the left of z = –2.1 represents P( z < –2.1) z = –2.1 0 Find P( z < 2.7 ) If we want to know the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the positive Z value of 2.7 we need to find the area to the left of z = 2.7 The yellow area to the left of z = 2.7 represents P( z < 2.7) 0 z= 2.7 We use two different tables to help find the area to the left of a given z value or z score. The Negative Z Scores Table is used to find the area that is to the left of a negative z value z = – 2.1 The Positive Z Scores Table is used to to find the area that is to the left of a positive z value 0 Section 6 – 3B Lecture 0 Page 1 of 16 z= 2.7 © 2012 Eitel The Negative Z Scores Table The Negative Z Scores Table is used to find the area that is to the LEFT of a negative z value. z = – 2.1 0 The vertical line in the middle of the graph divides the total area of 1 in half. The area to the left of this line is .5000. All the shaded areas to the left of a negative Z value will be less than .5000 The 2 decimal place Z score is the negative 1 decimal place z value from the left column (in red) with an additional decimal place from the row on top (in red) The 4 decimal place number in yellow at the intersection of the left column z value (in red) and top row z value (in red) is the area to the LEFT of that given negative z score The Z Table only gives areas to the left of a Z value. Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Area to the LEFT of Z Z –3.4 –3.3 –3.2 –3.1 –3.0 –2.9 –2.8 –2.7 –2.6 –2.5 –2.4 –2.3 –2.2 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0013 0.0019 0.0026 0.0035 0.0047 0.0062 0.0082 0.0107 0.0139 0.0013 0.0018 0.0025 0.0034 0.0045 0.0060 0.0080 0.0104 0.0136 0.0013 0.0018 0.0024 0.0033 0.0044 0.0059 0.0078 0.0102 0.0132 0.0012 0.0017 0.0023 0.0032 0.0043 0.0057 0.0075 0.0099 0.0129 0.0012 0.0016 0.0023 0.0031 0.0041 0.0055 0.0073 0.0096 0.0125 0.0011 0.0016 0.0022 0.0030 0.0040 0.0054 0.0071 0.0094 0.0122 0.0011 0.0015 0.0021 0.0029 0.0039 0.0052 0.0069 0.0091 0.0119 0.0011 0.0015 0.0021 0.0028 0.0038 0.0051 0.0068 0.0089 0.0116 0.0010 0.0014 0.0020 0.0027 0.0037 0.0049 0.0066 0.0087 0.0113 0.0010 0.0014 0.0019 0.0026 0.0036 0.0048 0.0064 0.0084 0.0110 This is only a portion of the entire Negative z Score Table Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 2 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 1A Finding the area to the left of a negative Z score Find P( z < – 1.86 ) The area under the z curve that is to the left of a given z value represents the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value. If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of – 1.86 we need to find the area to the LEFT of z = – 1.86 The number at the intersection of the –1.8 row and the 0.06 column is 0.0314 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.08 0.09 0.0301 0.0294 This means that the area to the left of z = – 1.86 is 0.0314 the area to the left of z = – 1.86 is .0314 left tail area = .0314 z = – 1.86 0 negative value If the area to the left of z = – 1.86 is .0314 then P( z < – 1.86 ) = 0.0314 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 3 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 1B Finding the area to the Right of a negative Z score Find P( z > – 1.86 ) The area under the z curve that is to the right of a given z value represents the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value. If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value of – 1.86 we need to find the area to the RIGHT of z = – 1.86 The number at the intersection of the –1.8 row and the 0.06 column is 0.0314 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.08 0.09 0.0301 0.0294 This means that the area to the LEFT of z = – 1.86 is 0.0314 The vertical line drawn at the value of z divides the area under the z curve into two areas. The yellow area is to the left of the z value and the white area is to the right of the z value. The total of the yellow and white areas is 1 the area to the left of z = – 1.86 is .0314 left tail area = .0314 the area to the right of z = – 1.86 is 1– .0314 = .9686 right tail area = .9686 z = – 1.86 0 so If the area to the Left of Z = – 1.86 is .0314 then the area to the Right of Z = – 1.86 is 1 – .0314 = .9686 P( z > – 1.86 ) = 1 – 0.0314 = .9686 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 4 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 2A Find the area to the left of a negative Z score Find P( z < – 1.02 ) The area under the z curve that is to the left of a given z value represents the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value. If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of – 1.02 we need to find the area to the LEFT of z = – 1.02 The number at the intersection of the –1.0 row and the 0.02 column is 0.1539 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.08 0.09 0.1401 0.1379 This means that the area to the left of z = –1.02 is 0.1539 the area to the left of z = – 1.02 is .1539 left tail area = .1539 z = – 1.02 negative value 0 If the area to the left of z = – 1.86 is .1539 then P( z < – 1.02 ) = 0.1539 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 5 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 2B Finding the area to the Right of a negative Z score Find P( z > – 1.02 ) The area under the z curve that is to the right of a given z value represents the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value. If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value of – 1.02 we need to find the area to the RIGHT of z = – 1.02 the area to the left of z = – 1.02 is .1539 left tail area = .1539 the area to the right of z = – 1.02 is 1– .1539 = .8461 right tail area = .8461 z = – 1.02 0 If the area to the Left of Z = – 1.02 is 0.1539 then the area to the Right of Z = – 1.02 is 1 – .1539 P( z > – 1.02 ) = 1 – 0.1539 = .8461 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 6 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 3 Find the area to the left of a negative Z score A Special Case for z = – 2.575 P( z < – 2.575 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of – 2.575 we need to find the area to the left of z = – 2.575 Two negative Z scores with 3 decimal places are used in this course. These two 3 decimal place values and the areas to the left of them are listed separately at the bottom of the table. The cells at the bottom of the negative z scores table show that the area to the left of Z = –2.575 is 0.0050 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 Z scores of –3.5 or less use .0001 AREA Z Score 0.0500 –1.645 AREA 0.08 0.09 0.0049 0.0048 Z Score 0.0050 –2.575 This means that the area to the LEFT of z = – 1.86 is 0.0050 P( z < – 2.575 ) = 0.0050 Finding the area to the Right of a negative Z score P( z > – 2.575 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be greater than the z value of – 2.575 we need to find the area to the right of z = – 2.575 If the area to the Left of Z = – 1.02 is 0.0050 then the area to the Right of Z = – 2.575 is 1 – .0050 = .9950 P( z > – 2.575 ) = 1 – 0.0050 = .9950 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 7 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 4 Find the area to the left of a negative Z score A Special Case for z = – 1.645 P( z < – 1.654 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of – 1.654 we need to find the area to the left of z = – 1.654 The cells at the bottom of the negative z scores table show that the area to the left of Z = –1.645 is 0.0500 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 Z scores of –3.5 or less use .0001 AREA Z Score 0.0500 –1.645 AREA 0.08 0.09 0.0049 0.0048 Z Score 0.0050 –2.575 This means that the area to the left of z = –1.645 is 0.0500 P( z < – 1.654 ) = 0.0500 Finding the area to the Right of a negative Z score P( z > – 1.654 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be greater than the z value of – 1.654 we need to find the area to the right of z = – 1.654 If the area to the Left of Z = – 1.645 is 0.0500 then the area to the Right of Z = – 1.645 is 1 – .0500 = .9500 P( z > – 1.654 ) 1 – 0.0500 = .9500 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 8 of 16 © 2012 Eitel The Positive Z Scores Table The Positive Z Scores Table is used to find the area that is to the left of a positive z value. z = 2.1 The vertical line in the middle of the graph divides the total area of 1 in half. The area to the left of this line is .5000. All the shaded areas to the left of a positive z value will be more than .5000 The 2 decimal place z score is the positive 1 decimal place z value from the left column (in red) with an additional decimal place from the row on top (in red) The 4 decimal place number in yellow at the intersection of the left column z value (in red) and top row z value (in red) stands for the area to the LEFT of that given z score The Z Table only gives areas to the left of a Z value. Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517 0.6554 0.6915 0.7257 0.7580 0.7881 0.8159 0.8413 0.8643 0.8849 0.6591 0.6950 0.7291 0.7611 0.7910 0.8186 0.8438 0.8665 0.8869 0.6628 0.6985 0.7324 0.7642 0.7939 0.8212 0.8461 0.8686 0.8888 0.6664 0.7019 0.7357 0.7673 0.7967 0.8238 0.8485 0.8708 0.8907 0.6700 0.7054 0.7389 0.7704 0.7995 0.8264 0.8508 0.8729 0.8925 0.6736 0.7088 0.7422 0.7734 0.8023 0.8289 0.8531 0.8749 0.8944 0.6772 0.7123 0.7454 0.7764 0.8051 0.8315 0.8554 0.8770 0.8962 0.6808 0.7157 0.7486 0.7794 0.8078 0.8340 0.8577 0.8790 0.8980 0.6844 0.7190 0.7517 0.7823 0.8106 0.8365 0.8599 0.8810 0.8997 0.6879 0.7224 0.7549 0.7852 0.8133 0.8389 0.8621 0.8830 0.9015 This is only a portion of the entire Positive z Score table Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 9 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 5 Finding the area to the left of a positive Z score P( z < 1.41 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of 1.41 we need to find the area to the LEFT of z = 1.41 The number at the intersection of the 1.4 row and the 0.01 column is 0.9207 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.08 0.09 0.9306 0.9319 This means that the area to the left of z = 1.41 is 0.9207 the area to the left of z = 1.41 is .9207 left tail area = .1539left tail area = .9207 0 z =1.41 positive value P( z < 1.41 ) = 0.9207 Finding the area to the Right of a positive Z score P( z > 1.41 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value of 1.41 we need to find the area to the RIGHT of z = 1.41 The total of the yellow and white areas is 1 so the right area (in white) = 1 – the left area If the area to the Left of Z = 1.41 is 0.9207 then the area to the Right of Z = 1.41 is 1 – .9207 = .0793 P( z > 1.41 ) = 1 – 0.9207 = .0793 Example 6 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 10 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Finding the area to the left of a positive Z score P( z < 2.33 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of 2.33 we need to find the area to the LEFT of z = 2.33 The number at the intersection of the 2.3 row and the 0.03 column is 0.9901 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.08 0.09 0.9913 0.9916 This means that the area to the left of z = 2.33 is 0.9901 the area to the left of z = 2.33 is .9901 left tail area = .1539left tail area = .9901 0 z = 2.33 positive value P( z < 2.33 )= 0.9901 Finding the area to the Right of a positive Z score P( z > 2.33 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be more than the z value of 2.33 we need to find the area to the RIGHT of z = 2.33 If the area to the Left of Z = 2.33 is .9901 then the area to the Right of Z = 2.33 is 1 – .9901= .0099 P( z > 2.33 ) = 1 – 0.9901 = .0099 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 11 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 7 Finding the area to the left of a positive Z score A Special Case for z = 1.645 P( z < 1.645 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be less than the z value of 1.645 we need to find the area to the LEFT of z = 1.645 The cells at the bottom of the positive z scores table show that the area to the left of Z = 1.645 is 0.9500 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 Z scores of 3.5 or more use .9999 AREA 0.9500 Z Score 1.645 AREA 0.08 0.09 0.9535 0.9545 Z Score 0.9950 2.575 This means that the area to the left of z = 1.645 is 0.9500 left tail area = .9500 0 right tail area = .0500 z= 1.645 P( z < 1.645 ) = .9500 Finding the area to the Right of a positive Z score P( z > 1.645 ) If the area to the Left of Z = 1.645 is .9500 then the area to the Right of Z = 1.645 is 1 – .9500 = .0500 P( z > 1.645 ) = 1 – 0.9500 = .0500 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 12 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Finding the area in yellow between two Z scores P( z 1 < Z < z 2) z1 z2 subtract the blue area to the left of z1 from the yellow area to the left of z2 z1 z2 subtract the blue area to the left of z1 from the z2 z1 yellow area to the left of z2 z1 z2 The area in yellow between Two Z scores z 1 and z 2 P( z 1 < Z < z 2) = the Area to the left of z 2 – the area to the left of z 1 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 13 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 8 Find the area between z = –2.48 and z = 2.87 P( –2.48 < z < 2.87 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be BETWEEN the z value of –2.48 the z value of 2.87 we need to find the area BETWEEN z = 2.87 and z = 2.87 z = –2.48 z =2.87 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.08 0.09 0.9980 0.9981 0.08 0.09 0.0066 0.0064 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 If the area to the left of Z = 2.87 is 0.9979 and the area to the left of Z = –2.48 is 0.0066 then the area BETWEEN Z = 2.87 and Z = –2.48 is .9979 – .0066 = .9913 P( –2.48 < z < 2.87 ) = .9913 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 14 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 9 Find the area between Z = –1.75 and Z = 1.88 P( –1.75 < z < 1.88 ) If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be BETWEEN the z value of –1.75 the z value of 1.88 we need to find the area BETWEEN z = 1.75 and z = 1.88 z = –1.75 z =1.88 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.08 0.09 0.9699 0.9706 0.08 0.09 0.0375 0.0367 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 If the area to the left of Z = 2.87 is 0.9699 and the area to the left of Z = –2.48 is 0.0401 then the area BETWEEN Z = –1.75 and Z = 1.88 is .9699 – .0401 = .9298 P( –1.75 < z < 1.88 ) = .9298 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 15 of 16 © 2012 Eitel Example 10 Find the area between Z = –2.51 and Z = 2.575 P( –2.51 < z < 2.575 If we want to find the probability of selecting one number from the z distribution and having that number be BETWEEN the z value of –2.51 the z value of 2.575 we need to find the area BETWEEN z = 2.51 and z = 2.575 z = –2.51 z = 2.575 the area to the left of Z = 2.575 is .9950 Positive Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z scores of 3.5 or more use .9999 AREA 0.9500 Z Score 1.645 AREA 0.9950 Z Score 2.575 the area to the left of Z = –2.51 is .0060 Negative Z Scores Standard Normal (Z) Distribution: Cumulative Area to the LEFT of Z Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 –2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.08 0.09 0.0049 0.0048 If the area to the left of Z = 2.575 is 0.9950 and the area to the left of Z = –2.51 is 0.0060 then the area BETWEEN Z = 2.575 and Z = –2.51 is .9950 – .0060= .9890 P( –2.51 < z < 2.575 ) = .9890 Section 6 – 3B Lecture Page 16 of 16 © 2012 Eitel