Morning Cafe
sto.ctoxpui
ISSUE: 840
13 Sept 2013
MORNING STRATEGY
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HNX-Index Price Chart
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13 Sept 2013 – Lacking of supportive news, Vietnam stock market became more quiet yesterday. At the close, the VNIndex inched down 0.17% to 475.59 while the HNX-Index decreased 0.27% to 60.02. Notably, CII and HPG
outperformed the broad market yesterday when one of CII’s inside shareholders announced to buy 1.5 million shares
of the company and HPG confirmed a rumor about successfully collecting a bad debt of VND 264 billion.
Total volume on two bourses reached 47 million shares, worth nearly VND 550 billion. Foreign investors accumulated
VND 1.7 billion and 481 million worth of shares on HSX and HNX respectively, much lower than the previous figures.
According to State Bank of Vietnam, having implementing Resolution No 02/NQ-CP of the government issued on Jan
07th,2013, domestic commercial banks have provided loans of VND 105.32 billion in total to 331 individuals, of which
VND 69.4 billion has been disbursed. For institutional customers, there have been three enterprises committed to
loans of VND 708 billion, of which VND 45 billion has been disbursed. Taking the total commitment of VND 30 trillion
of the credit package into consideration, of which VND 21 trillion is for individuals and VND 9 trillion is for enterprises,
lending and disbursement were rather slow, which might be partly due to hard lending criteria as well as the
downturn of real-estate market.
Pha Lai Thermal Power JSC (HSX: PPC) has just announced the resolution of its BOD approving the purchase of 15
million shares of Hai Phong Thermal Power JSC from EVN Finance JSC at VND 11,500 per share. Taking 5 million
shares of the same company that PPC had bought from Saigon Vina Real Estate JSC into account, PPC would own
25.49% stake of Hai Phong Thermal Power JSC, the only associate company of PPC. Compared to the cash and
equivalents of over VND 1,300 billion on PPC’s balance sheet on June 30th, 2013, the deal, which would cost PPC around
VND 170 billion cash, is negligible and will not make any significant impact on PPC’s financial conditions.
Back to the broad market, on the technical side, the 20-day moving average of the VN-Index is approaching the index
itself, indicating a high probability of the VN-Index finishing its consolidation soon and resuming its current short-term
downtrend. However, in bigger picture, we maintain our view that the strong support of 460-465 will hold its ground.
We continue recommending traders and investors not be too active for the time being.
To contact the analyst of this commentary:
Mr. Hoang Huy (huyh@acbs.com.vn)
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
1|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
Date: 13 Sept 2013
TOP STORY
HPG: Brief company update
Yesterday, Hoa Phat Group JSC (HSX: HPG) declared to successfully collect VND 264 billion from Ha Noi ACB
Investment JSC, related to buying 20 million shares of a subsidiary, Hoa Phat Steel JSC. This has given a positive effect
on HPG’s market prices recently.
Last price (Sep 12 2013)
Average volume in 30 days
Average volume in 100
days
H1/2013
VND 33,100/share
423,881 shares
Charted capital (VND Billion)
Sales volume of construction
561,976 shares
steel (VND Billion)
Revenue (VND Billion)
EAT (VND Billion)
Sources: HSX, HPG, Bloomberg, ACBS Research Center (2013)
% fulfilled
targets
4,191
-
322,600
-
8,410
1,012
45.5%
84.4%
After collecting VND 264 billion worth of account receivables above, the company will be able to reverse VND 164
billion provision in Q3, which will push Hoa Phat’s profit adequately. As a result, in this update, we reduce the
company’s administrative expenses in our 2013 forecast from VND 554 billion to just VND 290 billion. Meanwhile, we
believe that Hoa Phat is able to garner a revenue of around VND3,500- 4,000 billion during Q3.
Outperform the industry
While total sales volume of VSA’s members advanced 3% y.o.y in 8M2013, Hoa Phat was continuously outperforming
the industry, attaining a real growth rate of 7.45% y.o.y to 431,600 tons during the period and holding about 14.3%
market share. Consumption of steel pipe remains stable around 12,000-13,000 tons per month, occupying 15.1%
market share.
80,000
Tons
HPG's monthly sales volume of steel in 2011 - 2012
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012
Source: HPG, ACBS Research Center (2013)
Launching Phase II - Hoa Phat Steel Complex
The Phase II of Coke and Thermal factory were fully operated since late August, lifting the company’s annual capacity
to 700,000 tons coke and 37 MW. With this, Hoa Phat can meet its total demand of coke and about 40% of electricity
demand for the whole Complex in the future.
Currently, the company is rushing to bring the Phase II - Hoa Phat Steel Complex into operation in Q4 as schedule.
Given that, Hoa Phat will attain annual capacity of 1.15 million tons billet and 1.15 million tons construction steel,
including two blast furnaces with total capacity of 900,000 tons/ year.
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
2|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
Date: 13 Sept 2013
Thanks to that, Hoa Phat may achieve a real growth of 11% in terms of construction steel and 15% in terms of steel
pipe in 2013. The steel business is expected to stabilize around VND 13,000 billion in 2013FY. Revenues from most of
the other businesses are expected to grow around 3-7% while that related to exporting coke decreased by 40% due to
the plunge of prices.
The operation of the Phase II Hoa Phat Complex may create higher depreciation cost and interest expenses in
Q4/2013. Nevertheless, this is expected to promote the company’s steel gross margin, and product quality in longterm. With a large operation scale and its vertical investment into the construction steel value chain, Hoa Phat has a
great competitive advantage as compared to other domestic steel producers.
Mandarin project
Mandarin has still received customer interests thanks to Hoa Phat’s good reputation for its rapid construction progress
and timely delivery of 257 Giai Phong projects. The company has sold about 700 of 1,000 Mandarin’s apartments and
collected about VND 2,185 billion from customers (as of the end of June 2013). As such, we believe that Hoa Phat is
able to gain a revenue of about VND 2,500 billion from the project in 2013.
Valuation
Given the recovery of steel business and sales of Mandarin project, Hoa Phat may fulfill 99% its revenue target (VND
18,400 billion) and 164% its EAT target (VND 1,967 billion) in 2013.
In terms of valuation, using DCF method and Multiples method gives the fair price at VND 37,054 per share; up VND
553 per share against our previous update (July 2013). Given the HPG current market price, we preserve our Buy
recommendation on the stock.
Technical view: bearish signals from indicators
HPG has just breached its medium-term high of 32,100 and is aiming to its all-time one of 37,600. However, taking
HPG’s more-than-2-fold rally in the past year and RSI(14)’s bearish divergence into consideration, we do not expect
HPG to keep rising much further. A drop back below the just-broken resistance of 32,000, if any, will signal a significant
reversal. *Note: HPG’s prices are adjusted according to dividend, stock split, etc.
To contact the analyst of this commentary:
Ms. Tran Thi Hai Yen (yen.tran@acbs.com.vn)
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
3|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
Date: 13 Sept 2013
LOCAL NEWS
Vietnam’s aviation likely to rise 12-15% this year
Vietnam’s aviation is expected to growth from 12% to 15% this year in term of passenger transport, Vnexpress.net
reported, citing information of the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam.
If the forecast comes true, this year’s increase will be really impressed versus last year’s figure of 6.8% growth, Luu
Thanh Binh- Deputy Head of the Civil Aviation Authority said, commenting that amid aviation industry in the world has
been facing a number of difficulties, airlines in Asia in general and in Vietnam in particular still posted optimistic
growth and there are positive signals that Vietnam’s airlines will have strong recovery. It is expected that Vietnam’s
aviation to grow by 12-15% this year and the growth will maintain at 2 digit figures in 2014 and 2015.
In 2013, Vietnam’s airlines are expected to serve total of 29 million passengers. The market is very potential with
population of more than 80 million.
Currently Vietnam has 4 airlines, including the Flag courier Vietnam Airlines, Jetstar Pacific, Vietjet Air and Vasco. In
which, Vietnam airlines serves both as passenger delivery and political duty. Vietjet Air is a private and low cost
aviation. Vietjet Air is a young aviation in Vietnam but it has begun to demonstrate compliance with the conditions of
Vietnamese, having diversified serving policies with many options for passengers.
Source: StoxPlus
BIDV delays fixing time for international bond issuance
The Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam (BIDV) has not set a specific time for issuing international
bonds, said the bank's spokesperson, Quach Hung Hiep.
The statement follows approval given by the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) last Wednesday for BIDV to issue up to
US$500 million worth of international bonds this year.
"We've intended to issue these bonds for a long time and the confirmation from SBV is a positive step for BIDV to
capitalise on opportunities. This doesn't mean we have fixed a time for the issuance," said Hiep. BIDV planned to issue
international bonds from 2011.
Source: VNS
Vietnam Treasury sells VND180Bln G-Bond sale on Sept 11; yields up
The State Treasury of Vietnam only sold VND180 billion worth of government bonds in an auction on Sept 11 at the
yields of 8.3-9.1% per annum, according to the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX).
In the auction, the State Treasury planned to sell VND2 trillion worth of government bonds, distributed equally for 2-y,
3-y, 5-y and 10-y maturities.
The bid-to-cover ratios were 1.86 and 0.16, respectively for 3- and 5-y tenors. In details, there were 4 bidders
registering for VND930 billion 3-y bonds, seeking for yields of 8.3-9.5% while only 2 investors bid for VND80 billion 5y notes, asking for yield of 9.1%.
Of the total, the State Treasury sold VND100 billion 3-y bonds at fixing of 8.3%, up 0.6% from the earlier auction on
Aug 29. It also mobilized another VND80 billion from 5-y bond sale at 9.1%, up 0.6% from the previous auction on Sept
5. No 2-y and 10-y debts were sold in the auction.
The sales help to raise total funds mobilized from bonds by the State Treasury via the Hanoi exchange to
VND102,793.57 billion year to date.
Source: StoxPlus
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
4|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
TODAY’S EVENTS
Ticker
GDT
HTL
SSC
Date: 13 Sept 2013
Event
The ex-rights date of 1st dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2013
The ex-rights date of dividend payment of VND 500/share for 2013
The ex-rights date of 2nd dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2012
UPCOMING EVENTS
Ticker
HDG
HPB
CIC
TAS
S55
VNN
CII
D2D
DAE
HAG
KBC
SFN
TH1
TNA
VNL
FIT
ITQ
PSD
VHL
XMC
HHS
KSA
SJE
Ex-rights Date
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/18/2013
09/19/2013
09/19/2013
09/19/2013
09/19/2013
09/19/2013
09/20/2013
09/20/2013
09/26/2013
Execution Date
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/23/2013
09/23/2013
09/30/2013
09/25/2013
10/30/2013
10/04/2013
10/09/2013
09/26/2013
10/09/2013
10/31/2013
10/15/2013
10/04/2013
10/26/2013
10/10/2013
10/11/2013
10/11/2013
10/30/2013
Event
Listing of 5,062,477 additional shares
Delisting of 3,880,000 shares
Delisting of 4,635,062 shares
Delisting of 13,900,000 shares
Dividend payment of VND 2,000/share for 2012
Collecting shareholders' opinions in documents
2nd Dividend payment of VND 400/share for 2012
1st Dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2013
1st Dividend payment of VND 900/share for 2013
Collecting shareholders' opinions in documents
Collecting shareholders' opinions in documents
Dividend payment of VND 900/share for 2012-2013
Dividend payment of VND 600/share for 2012
1st Dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2013
1st Dividend payment of VND 700/share for 2013
Stock dividend payment of 5% for 2012
Annual Shareholder Meeting 2013
Annual Shareholder Meeting 2013
1st Dividend payment of VND 1,000/share for 2013
Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting
Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting
1 for 1.2 rights issue at 10,000 VND/share
Dividend payment of VND 1,500/share for 2012
FUTURE TRADES
Ticker
EID
BGM
CII
VFMVF1
BGM
FPT
HAI
HVG
SZL
VRC
SGD
TPH
Start date
09/12/2013
09/13/2013
09/13/2013
09/13/2013
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/16/2013
09/19/2013
09/19/2013
Newsletter Team:
End date
10/11/2013
10/11/2013
10/11/2013
10/12/2013
10/16/2013
10/15/2013
10/15/2013
10/15/2013
10/15/2013
10/15/2013
09/30/2013
10/08/2013
Hoang Huy
Website:
Conducting Entity
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Treasury
Treasury
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
Buy volume
500,000
1,500,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
201,598
Sell volume
100,000
675,000
1,157,117
8,693,880
1,065,600
500,000
-
5|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
CURRENT TRADES
Date: 13 Sept 2013
Ticker
APG
ASM
BMP
BRC
COM
DHC
DNC
Start date
08/22/2013
09/10/2013
08/31/2013
08/23/2013
08/28/2013
08/29/2013
08/22/2013
End date
09/20/2013
10/09/2013
09/29/2013
09/21/2013
09/26/2013
09/27/2013
09/17/2013
Conducting Entity
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
DPR
09/09/2013
10/08/2013
Treasury
DQC
DTL
EIB
HDO
HPG
HVX
ITD
KDH
KHA
KSD
L18
MAFPF1
MHC
NIS
NIS
NTP
NVB
PAN
POM
PV2
SCR
SEC
SFI
STB
TTF
TTF
TTF
TTF
VNM
VRC
09/06/2013
09/11/2013
08/28/2013
08/28/2013
08/23/2013
09/10/2013
09/03/2013
08/14/2013
09/04/2013
08/26/2013
08/20/2013
09/09/2013
09/06/2013
09/04/2013
09/05/2013
08/27/2013
09/11/2013
08/13/2013
08/21/2013
09/10/2013
08/20/2013
08/14/2013
09/05/2013
08/28/2013
08/30/2013
08/30/2013
09/05/2013
09/05/2013
09/05/2013
08/26/2013
10/05/2013
10/10/2013
09/26/2013
09/26/2013
09/20/2013
10/10/2013
10/02/2013
09/12/2013
10/03/2013
09/24/2013
09/18/2013
10/08/2013
10/04/2013
10/03/2013
10/04/2013
09/25/2013
10/09/2013
09/11/2013
09/19/2013
10/09/2013
09/18/2013
09/12/2013
10/04/2013
09/26/2013
09/28/2013
09/28/2013
10/04/2013
10/04/2013
10/04/2013
09/24/2013
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Treasury
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Major shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Inside shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Affiliated shareholder
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
Buy volume
2,000,000
2,000,000
119,360
200,000
141,000
200,000 1,000,000
350,000
1,000,000
600,000
500,000
107,000
200,000
2,400,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
210,000
1,000,000
100,000
6,062,772
1,900,000
500,000
500,000
180,000
400,000
1,000,000
300,000
Sell volume
264,960
800,000
1,000,000
400,200
448,560
180,000
16,000,000
337,000
100,000
886,544
237,627
-
6|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>
MORNING CAFE
Date: 13 Sept 2013
Analyst certification
The analysts named on the previous pages of this report, who are primarily responsible for the preparation of this
report, certify that the opinion(s) in the report and any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect
their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) contained in this report.
Report Distribution
This report is restricted to and intended only for the clients of ACBS in Vietnam. If a client receives and/or uses this
report outside Vietnam, it is the client’s sole responsibility to ensure that it is legally permitted in the client’s
jurisdiction. Otherwise, the client should disregard this report in its entirety and let ACBS know that the client no
longer wishes to receive such reports.
Disclaimer
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be
construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction.
The information in this report is obtained from sources believed by ACBS to be reliable. However ACBS makes no
representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness. THE REPORT IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE.
The client shall be liable for any risk or loss (if any) as if the client makes the investment decision based on this report.
ACBS accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the client’s use
of this report, including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection,
fault, mistake or inaccuracy in its contents.
Some parts of the report reflect the assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them, and
ACBS is not responsible for any error of their works and assumptions. ACBS may have issued, and may in the future,
issue other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusions from the information presented in this
report.
© Copyright. ACB Securities Company Limited 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this report may be
reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronically, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or
otherwise, without the prior written permission of ACB Securities Company Limited.
Newsletter Team:
Hoang Huy
Website:
huyh@acbs.com.vn
http://www.acbs.com.vn
7|P a g e
Bloomberg: ACBS <GO>