Burma and the Evolving Security
Environment of the Asia-Pacific
In different ways, the ‘Saffron Revolution’
last September and Cyclone Nargis in May
this year, highlight the key question about
Burma (or Myanmar) currently facing
the international community — how to
encourage political, economic and social
reforms in a country ruled by an introverted
and nationalistic government that puts
its own survival before the welfare of its
people and observance of accepted norms
of behaviour.
Sule Pagoda in Central Rangoon
To date, the answer seems to have eluded all
those who have sought to influence Burma’s
military leaders. Yet, critical though these
issues are, Burma’s contemporary importance
goes well beyond such domestic
concerns to include a number of broader
strategic questions.
Burma is now a critical factor in the evolving
security environment of the Asia-Pacific
region. China and India are openly competing
for Burma’s favour, as a way of strengthening
their strategic interests in the north east
Indian Ocean.
... continued on page 4
PAGE 2
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER
Editorial
Despite all of the challenges of 2008, China has managed to
hold – and dominate – a highly successful Olympics. That China
so badly wanted to host the Games, to use them to present a
positive image of itself to the world, and to emphatically top the
medal count, speaks volumes to the complex nature of power
in the emerging order in Asia. On the other side of the Asian
continent, another complex power struggle has played itself out in
the Caucasus. The Russian intervention into Georgia to reverse the
Georgian interventions into Abkhazia and South Ossetia; and NATO’s
subsequent response, all portend the dawning of a new era of
sphere-of-influence competition around Russia’s peripheries.
These events emphasise the possibilities and challenges that
lie ahead for the Griffith Asia Institute’s research program. Our
scholars continue their research on a broad range of themes, from
transnational threats such as pandemic disease and extremist
ideologies, to legal reform in China, energy politics, countercorruption and legislative oversight.
Griffith Asia Institute newsletter
Griffith University
Nathan campus
Brisbane Qld 4111 Australia
www.griffith.edu.au/business/griffith-asia-institute/
If you would like your Asia‑Pacific related activities to
be featured in this newsletter, please contact
the publisher:
Mrs Meegan Thorley, Manager
Telephone: 61 7 3735 7624
Facsimile: 61 7 3735 3731
Email: m.thorley@griffith.edu.au
or Professor Michael Wesley, Director
Telephone 61 7 3735 5143
Facsimile: 61 7 3735 3731
Email:
m.wesley@griffith.edu.au
Our seminars and workshops
have continued to explore allied
themes; such as journalist Peter
Roebuck’s “Perspectives: Asia”
seminar on India’s growing power
over world cricket. And we
look ahead with expectation to
the first of our China-Australia
Dialogues in Beijing in November,
which will bring together
Chinese, Australian and regional
delegates to discuss the common
challenges our societies will face
in 10-20 years.
Professor Michael Wesley,
Director, Griffith Asia Institute
Research Grants
Australia’s Nuclear Choices is the title of the successful linkage
grant received by GAI researchers Professor Michael Wesley and
Dr Michael Clarke in collaboration with partners the Lowy Institute,
Department of Defence, Flinders University and the Australian
National University. Australia’s nuclear choices will be made in the
context of a challenging and fluid international strategic environment
characterised in Australia’s immediate region by heightened global
concerns regarding such transnational dilemmas as terrorism,
energy security and nuclear proliferation. This project, through
exploring the nature, evolution and consequences of contemporary
strategic, military and civil nuclear developments impacting on
the international non-proliferation regime will enable Australian
policymakers to better calibrate the costs and benefits of potential
policy changes across these strategic, regime and market realms of
Australia’s nuclear interests.
In This Issue
• Events • Conferences • research • visitors • diary dates • publications
Winter 2008
Indonesian University
celebrates Anniversary of
HAMKA
On April 8, 2008, the Muhammadiyah University HAMKA in Jakarta,
Indonesia, celebrated the 100th anniversary of the birth of one of
the pioneers of Islamic modernism in Indonesia, Haji Abdul Malik
Karim Amrullah. Associate Professor Julia Howell was one of three
well-known scholars invited to address a seminar held by that
university to celebrate the anniversary. The keynote speaker was
Dr Anwar Ibrahim, former Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia and a
leading political figure today in a coalition of opposition groups. Other
members of the panel of scholars were Dr Ahmad Syafii Maarif,
former General Chairman of the Muhammadiyah (Indonesia’s leading
Muslim modernist organisation) and founder of the Maarif Institute
for Culture and Humanity, and Professor Azyumardi Azra, former
Rector of the State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah, Jakarta,
and, like Syafii Maarif, a leading public intellectual.
Haji Abdul Malik Karim Amrullah, widely known by the acronym
for his name, ‘Hamka’, was famed for his scholarship in Qur’anic
exegesis, for which he was awarded an honorary doctorate and
professorial appointments. He was also known as an innovator in
contemporary, popular Islamic education and proselytising, writing
not only motivational magazine and newspaper articles, but some of
the first contemporary-style Islamic spiritual self-improvement books
and even novels with Islamic themes. Julia was invited to speak on
Hamka’s impact on the contemporary Islamic spirituality movement,
sometimes identified as ‘neo-Sufism’, and on his role as a pioneer of
modern Islamic communications on television and the other popular
mass media.
The seminar, held in the Hotel Atlet Century Park’s convention
hall, was attended by an audience of several hundred guests,
including other academics, leading members of the Muhammadiyah
movement, the Minister of Education, and surviving members of
Hamka’s family.
New journal focuses on
Indonesian Islam
While in Indonesia in April, Julia was also invited to the State Islamic
Institute Sunan Ampel in Surabaya to help launch their newly founded
international journal, the Journal of Indonesian Islam. As a platform
for the launch, the Institute held a seminar on 11 April entitled
“The Changing Role of Sufism in Contemporary Indonesian Piety” at
which Julia gave the feature address, “Active Piety in Contemporary
‘Sufistik’ Televangelism”. A member of GAI’s Islam and Politics
Research Group, Akh Muzzaki of the University of Queensland (on
leave from Sunan Ampel), organized the seminar and launch.
GAI member Associate Professor Julia Howell (centre) at the seminar and
launch of the journal of Indonesian Islam
PAGE 3
GAI’s Islam and Politics research group regularly brings together
academic staff and postgraduate students from Griffith University
and the University of Queensland for discussion of their research and
to develop collegial relations.
Perspectives: Asia
Kylie Kwong
Asian Cuisine and Australian Society was
the topic for May presenter Kylie Kwong.
Kylie took time out of her busy schedule
as author, chef, restaurateur and television
presenter, to share with the audience her experiences growing
up as a Chinese-Australian. Kylie shared her childhood memories
of her mother’s cooking, including Aussie dinner night, market
shopping and basting the roast chicken with soy sauce. It was
from these experiences that Kylie developed her love of food
and cooking. Kylie went on to discuss her ancestry and how this
influenced her evolution into author, restaurateur and television
presenter. During this, Kylie also discussed her management and
working philosophy and love of organic foods.
Mr Jalil Abbas Jilani
His Excellency, Mr Jalil Abbas Jilani, High
Commissioner for Pakistan, provided an
insightful look into Pakistan’s regional
security concerns at the June Perspectives:
Asia Seminar. Focusing on Pakistan’s
relations with its neighbours, Iran,
Afghanistan and India, Mr Jilani gave
a picture of Pakistan’s challenges and
opportunities in the region. In relation to Pakistan-India relations,
Mr Jilani acknowledged the history of tension between the two
countries but noted how, since 2003, this situation has changed.
According to the High Commissioner, this change was necessary
on a number of levels, including the developing nuclear capabilities
of each country and the economic realisation that poverty in both
countries was high and neither could afford continued conflict.
Mr Jilani noted that relations had improved over time and bilateral
trade relations between the two countries were now quite good.
In reflecting on Afghanistan, the High Commissioner explained
that this area was suffering greatly from instability and conflict
which has been increasing since the Soviet invasion. A nexus was
now developing between Taliban, Al-Qaeda, the warlords and drug
barons which, combined with a lack of governance, were increasing
the instability in the region. Mr Jilani commented that greater
intervention was needed for the situation to improve. He noted
that Pakistan now has a strong economic relationship with Iran and
noted Iran’s nuclear position. The High Commissioner stated that
Pakistan supported Iran’s pursuit of civilian nuclear technology and
that both India and Pakistan were looking towards Iran for future
energy requirements.
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE
PAGE 4
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER
Burma and the Evolving Security Environment of the Asia-Pacific
... from page 1
China wishes to protect its southern flank
from possible future Indian threats and
needs access to the sea to export goods
from land-locked southern China. India
fears encirclement by Chinese client states,
in which category it includes Burma and
Pakistan. Both major powers need Burma’s
natural gas, to fuel their rapidly expanding
economies.
This strategic competition worries members
of ASEAN, who are concerned that an
apparently weak and vulnerable state like
Burma will fall into Beijing’s orbit and become a Chinese stalking
horse in the region. Other Asia-Pacific countries, like Japan and
South Korea, are concerned about the impact this competition will
have on their sea lines of communication to the Middle East, on
which they depend for oil. Meanwhile, Russia is keen to consolidate
its foothold in the region, and secure energy contracts with Burma,
which it is wooing through the sale of arms and a nuclear reactor.
Above: GAI Research Fellow
Andrew Selth
The US is a major player in this complex strategic equation.
Concerned about China’s rise to political and economic superpower
status, it is attempting to develop closer relations with India, while
keeping faith with imprisoned Burmese opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi. The US is also worried that, shunned by most Western
countries, Burma will turn to fellow pariah states like North Korea,
and seek to acquire strategic weapons like submarines, ballistic
missiles and possibly even a nuclear device.
Over the past 20 years, Burma has skilfully exploited its sensitive
geo-strategic position, and the fears held about its close relationship
with China, to win favourable deals from India and some of the
key ASEAN countries, notably Singapore and Thailand. Yet Burma’s
military government still feels threatened by the US and other
Western countries.
It has adopted a range of security policies,
including approaches towards sensitive
transnational issues, that have added to
regional and even global concerns.
All these issues are currently being examined
by GAI Research Fellow Dr Andrew Selth, as
part of a three year project funded by the
Australian Research Council. Andrew hopes
to explode several myths which have arisen,
due largely to the dearth of hard information Above: GAI Research Fellow
about Burma’s security policies and the highly Stephen McCarthy
politicised atmosphere currently surrounding
the international community’s radically different approaches towards
the military government.
Andrew has produced GAI Regional Outlook papers examining claims
that Burma is host to several Chinese military bases, and that Burma
plans to acquire a nuclear weapon. Other issues being investigated
include the widely held belief that Burma is a Chinese puppet, and
that it possesses chemical and biological weapons.
Burma’s leaders also seem to fear military intervention by the
US. There is no hard evidence for any of these propositions but,
to a greater or lesser extent, they have influenced the strategic
perceptions and security policies of regional countries, with long term
policy implications for Australia.
Andrew co-delivered a GAI Research Seminar on “Burma’s Saffron
Revolution” with Dr Stephen McCarthy in April. While Andrew’s
work focused on the international attention surrounding the
demonstrations, Stephen investigated the implication of the
Revolution for domestic political legitimacy in predominantly
Buddhist Burma. Articles based upon their research will appear in the
September edition of the Australian Journal of International Affairs.
Stephen is also revising his research on Burma’s difficult relationship
with ASEAN in light of the recent events as well as the signing of the
new ASEAN Charter.
Village in the Irrawaddy Delta one month before cyclone Nargis
Winter 2008
PAGE 5
Hun Sen Prevails in Cambodia’s General Elections
Elections were held across Cambodia on 27 July for the 123-seat National
Assembly. This was Cambodia’s fourth election since the United Nations
Transitional Authority of Cambodia (UNTAC) imposed democracy in 1993,
and the first since Prime Minister Hun Sen’s dominant Cambodian People’s
Party (CPP) backed a constitutional amendment in 2006 reducing the
minimum seats required to form a government from a two-thirds majority
to only a simple majority, 50 percent plus one. Although the CPP was
widely expected to achieve the target—aided by the implosion of the
royalist Funcinpec party—it still faced a strong challenge to its urban vote
from the popular Sam Rainsy Party (SRP). The CPP were quick to claim
victory and eventually won 90 seats while the SRP, still reeling from some
defections to the CPP, picked up an additional 2 seats to claim 26 seats in
the National Assembly.
Despite EU observers claiming that the general election fell short of
international standards, they believed the results could not be invalidated
since the CPP’s victory was large enough to discount large-scale fraud
(the CPP received over 58% of the popular vote). Numerous grievances
were cited, however, including the CPP’s dominance of the media and
the National Election Committee, the consistent and widespread use of
state resources for its campaigning, and the disenfranchisement of large
numbers of voters who had travelled to the polling stations to discover
that their names had been removed from the electoral rolls. Opposition
parties complained of these irregularities as well as the last minute
relocation of polling stations and the appearance of illegitimate voters,
including Vietnamese immigrants.
Supporters during a CPP procession before
election day
The 2008 general election was also overshadowed by the reappearance
of a long-standing border dispute with Cambodia’s neighbour, Thailand,
centering on ownership of the Preah Vihear temple. UNESCO had listed
the temple as a world heritage site on 7 July, using maps and details
supplied by Cambodia. This elicited a sharp response from Thai royalists
critical of their government’s policy as well as Thai army border units
who moved in to occupy the site. Hun Sen responded by sending
Cambodian forces to defend their territory and up to 4,000 soldiers
remained in close contact in the week leading up to the election.
The CPP leadership’s skilful handling of the situation tapped into
Khmer nationalist sentiment and this was most probably reflected on
polling day.
Hun Sen’s CPP is now Cambodia’s dominant party and can rule the
country in its own right, without being hindered by problematic
coalitions and troublesome minor-party politics. And like other ‘electoral
democracies’ in the region that share this privileged status, its tenure
may depend as much on its performance as its ability to contain dissent.
Griffith Asia Institute research fellow Dr Stephen McCarthy travelled to
Cambodia to observe the elections as well as numerous political rallies,
including those of the Funcinpec, the Sam Rainsy Party, and the CPP
parties in Siem Reap and Phnom Penh.
Sam Rainsy speaking at a rally
Counting in the election begins
Diary dates
Refer to the Griffith Asia Institute website at www.griffith.edu.au/business/griffith-asia-institute/ for updates on these
and other events:
Research Seminars
Research Seminars
Perspectives: Asia public seminars
16 October 2008
23 October 2008
27 November 2008
Dr Ashok Sharma
Bjoern Dressel
Rowan Callick
Indo-US Strategic Partnership: Beyond the
Nuclear Deal
Thailand’s Constitutional Struggles
– China Correspondent, ‘The Australian’.
‘China: The Next Chapter’
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE
PAGE 6
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER
Publications
Deductive Irrationality
International Business in Korea
S. McCarthy and D. Kehl (eds),
Deductive Irrationality: A
commonsense Critique of Economic
Rationalism, Lanham Maryland:
Lexington Books, Rowman and
Littlefield, 2008.
O.Y. Kwon, International Business in
Korea: The evolution of the market
in the globalisation era, London,
Edward Elgar, 2008.
This book is a collection of essays
that peel back the protective
covering of modern political
economy, revealing the inner logic
of economic rationality: a logic of economism with its own set of
arbitrary and unsustainable policy preferences. The essays analyse
not only the work of founders of the discipline of economics, but also
political philosophers influential in this founding and select contributors
of seminal theories in modern economic thought. Consequently, the
book has implications for those interested in modern policies that are
based on economic theory and that fail to produce lasting economic
and political stability. For the Asia-Pacific region, these include many
of the economic liberalisation reforms, ‘state-building’ proposals,
and governance reforms that have been proposed by Western
governments and international financial institutions in recent years.
Considering the consequences
J.C. Sharman and P.S. Mistry,
Considering the Consequences:
The development implications of
initiatives on taxation, anti-money
laundering and combating the
financing of terrorism, London:
Commonwealth Secretariat, 2008
What have been the consequences
of recent regulatory initiatives on
offshore financial centres in small
countries? This study of Barbados,
Mauritius and Vanuatu suggests
that the costs of implementing
these new standards have exceeded
any identifiable benefits for the countries concerned. The main factor
explaining the adoption of these new standards in all three countries
is fear of the consequences of being blacklisted by international
organisations in the event of non-compliance, rather than any
identified benefit in terms of increased competitiveness. The authors
consider how policy on anti-money laundering should be developed
in the future, taking into account the particular concerns of small
developing countries.
O. Yul Kwon is a Professor of
International Business and Asian
Studies O Yul Kwon recently
launched a new book, International
Business in Korea: an Evolution of
the Market in the Globalisation
Era. Published in April the book
will be distributed to prestigious
organisations in the Western world
including universities, world organisations and research centres after
being selected by the Korea Foundation as one of its promotional
books for Korean studies. He has also had one of his early publications
translated into Japanese earlier this year and all this in between
training for the Brisbane Marathon, where he placed second in his
age group.
O. Yul Kwon uses an institutional framework to provide a
comprehensive evaluation of the environmental and operational
dynamics of international business in South Korea from the rapid
growth period 1963–1996, through recovery from the 1997
financial crisis, to the present. The study assesses that the South
Korean market and business practices will maintain some sui generis
characteristics because of the country’s idiosyncratic culture and
singular form of institutional development in the recent past. The
book contains comprehensive analysis of macro-level topics (such
as business opportunities, cultural influence, country risk and market
configuration) and micro-level topics (including business negotiation,
business ethics, management of international joint ventures and
the management system). This book delivers a wealth of valuable
information for a scholarly audience including undergraduate and
postgraduate students and academics in international business, as well
as for firms considering market entry into South Korea. O. Yul Kwon
holds the Korea Foundation Chair in Korean Studies and is Director
of the Australian Centre for Korean Studies at Griffith University,
Australia. He is a research member of GAI.
Populism, Politics and Propaganda
A. Selth, Populism, “Politics and
Propaganda: Burma and the movies”,
Southeast Asia Research Centre,
Working Paper no. 100, Hong Kong:
City University of Hong Kong, 2008,
found at http://www.cityu.edu.hk/
searc/WP100_08_ASelth.pdf
Winter 2008
Pakistan: Engagement of the Extremes
A. Misra, Pakistan: Engagement
of the extremes, India: Shipra
Publications, 2008.
Alongside a constant cycle of
democracy and dictatorship, in the
60 years since its independence
Pakistan has also seen the rise
of military political Islam, with
serious consequences for social
and political stability. While the
role of Islam in state-building and
identity creation has not been
fully delineated and defined since
Pakistan’s creation in 1947, the
military and civilian regimes have
impressively exploited Islam’s
mass appeal to garner public support and political legitimacy. As a
result Islamists have steadily risen to become a third political force in
Pakistan, culminating in the rise of Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) to power in the North West Frontier Province
(NWFP) in 2002 and winning over 60 seats in the National Assembly.
It was unprecedented but not unexpected, as this book argues. The
democratic opposition had accused General Pervez Musharraf of
establishing this partnership during his presidential referendum in
April 2002 in which the Military establishment had mobilised several
extremist groups to campaign and organise meetings across Pakistan.
As history would show such a partnership has thrived time and again
accruing political dividends to both sides and at times even at the
expense of country’s own security and political stability. Both General
Yahya Khan and Zia-ul Haq engaged with the Islamists which in due
course proved divisive and highly destabilising for Pakistan. General
Musharraf struck this alliance with the Islamists to institutionalise
himself, constitutionally consolidate his political authority and
marginalise the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz.
This book traces the relationship between the Military and Islamists,
and examines various measures and acts that resulted since it began
in 2002. It explains the dynamics of Military-Islamists partnership
under Pervez Musharraf and how it differed in substance and intent
from that of General Zia ul Haq. It is a study of civil-military relations
in Pakistan in which the Military and Islamists co-habit, compromise
and operate on a mutually rewarding basis until one of the two
breached this understanding. The author discusses not only instances
of mutual trust but mistrust as well and shows the perils of
Military-Islamist engagement for Pakistan’s own stability and security
that General Musharraf had turned its back on in his blind pursuit
for power.
PAGE 7
T. Makin and P. Narayan, “Have US External Imbalances Been
Determined at Home or Abroad?”, Economic Modelling, 25 (3),
520-531.
Professor Tony Makin published the above article on the
inter-relationship between capital flows between East Asia and the
United States the world’s largest international debtor since the turn of
this century. The article develops a new international flow of funds
framework for examining the relationship between current account
imbalances and world real interest rates. It shows that East Asian
lending to the United States, including foreign currency reserves
accumulated by the Chinese and other East Asian central banks, has
had a statistically significant negative impact on global real long term
interest rates since the time of the Asian financial crisis of the
late 1990’s.
Tony Makin’s research on “The Contribution of Foreign Borrowing
to the New Zealand Economy” (co-authored with Grant Scobie and
Wei Zhang) has been published as a New Zealand Treasury Working
Paper, 08-03, July. This study examines New Zealand’s unrelenting
current account deficits and foreign capital inflows, suggesting that
international trade in saving between New Zealand and other
Asia-Pacific economies has contributed more to New Zealand’s
economic growth than its international trade in goods and services.
As a case study of a small open Asia-Pacific economy, it argues that
New Zealand’s trade and current account deficits are symptomatic
of an economic growth process that has yielded significantly higher
national income per head.
Conference Presentations
Professor Tony Makin represented Australia at a Pacific Economic
Cooperation Conference (PECC) in Osaka, Japan, in March on the
theme of “External Adjustment Under Increasing Integration in
the Asia-Pacific. He presented a paper on “Financial Globalisation
and External Adjustment: The Australian Experience” and acted as
discussant on the Japan and US papers.
Professor Makin also presented a paper entitled “The Renmimbi
and Output-Expenditure Imbalances Between China and its Trading
Partners” at the 20th Annual Conference of the Australian Chinese
Economic Studies Association (ACESA) convened by James Cook
University, Townsville, 10-11 July.
Dr. Ashutosh Misra is Research Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute (GAI) and
Associate Investigator, Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security
(CEPS), Australia. He has written extensively on Pakistan in books,
journals and newspapers and holds a PhD on Indo-Pak relations from
the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE
PAGE 8
GRIFFITH ASIA INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER
Visitors
An Economic Outlook
The Asia-Pacific Business Economics group of the Griffith Asia
Institute hosted an Economic Update presentation by Professor
Philip D Adams on “Australia’s Economic Outlook in the Asia-Pacific
Context” at the university’s Ship Inn premises on 22 May. Professor
Adams is Director of the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash
University and the Australian coordinator for the Economic Outlook
taskforce of the Pacific Economic Cooperation group.
Communal Violence in India
Communal Violence in India was the topic of visitor Professor Anjoo
Sharan Upadhyaya’s seminar when she visited GAI in June this year.
Anjoo Sharan Upadhyaya is a Professor of Political Science and
Director, Centre for the Study of Nepal, Banaras Hindu University.
Sino-Australian Joint Research Program
GAI recently hosted a visit from Professor Wang Xinsheng from Sun
Yatsen University to discuss a new joint research initiative. This
initiative between Griffith University, Sun Yatsen University and the
University of Southern Queensland includes an agenda for research,
research training, scholarly exchange, and dialogue.
Its intention is to network and interact with other universities, expert
bodies, governmental organisations, relevant IGOs and NGOs, and
private sector actors from both countries—and beyond. It intends
to devote its focused research agenda, related activities, and outputs
to a range of “leading-edge” issues that are of current and future
concern to all parties.
Briefly, the components of the joint program are: Annual Dialogue
Forums (from mid-2009);
•
•
•
•
•
Multi-faceted distinguished visiting researchers scheme;
Research studentship and training plan;
Professional/specialist short courses;
Publications program;
Undergraduate student exchanges/study tours.
Currently, the joint program’s focal research areas include:
•
•
•
Securing Sustainable Global Futures—Environmental, Energy,
Resources, and Health Issues (1st Annual Dialogue Forum)
Strategic Trade, Business Security and Law and Order Issues
(2nd Annual Dialogue Forum)
Global Population and Migration Issues—Identity, Cultural
Sustainability, Jurisdiction, and Management/Governance
(3rd Annual Dialogue Forum)
Professor Wang Xinsheng, Sun Yatsen University (SYSU) and Professor Michael Wesley, GAI.