MINNESOTA
DAIRY INDUSTRY PROFILE
Prepared by:
Su Ye
Agricultural Marketing Services Division
Minnesota Department of Agriculture
2009
www.mda.state.mn.us
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Minnesota ……………………………………………………………………………. Page 2-11
National Ranking
Production Trend
Cash Receipts
Milk Yield
Farm Numbers
County Ranking
Prices
Feed Use by Dairy Production
Export
Economic Impact
U.S. …………………………………………………………………………………. Page 12-15
Production Trend
Consumption Trend
Exports and Imports
Imports by Country of Origin
World ………………………………………………………………………………..
Largest Producers and Consumers
-1-
Page 16
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
National Ranking
•
•
•
Minnesota is the 6th largest dairy state in the U.S.
In 2008, Minnesota had 464,000 head of dairy cows, about 5% of the U.S. total.
Many large dairy states have seen decreases in cow numbers in the past
decades; Minnesota, however, has achieved increases in cow numbers from
2005 to 2008, a four-year consecutive growth after long periods of decline.
U.S. Top 10 Dairy States (2008) – Number of Dairy Cows
CA
20%
All other
28%
WI
13%
OH
3%
NM
3.6%
MI
3.8%
NY
7%
TX
4.5%
PA
5.9%
MN
5%
ID
6%
Source: USDA, NASS
U.S. Top 10 Dairy States (2008) – 1,000 Head
2,000
2008
1,800
2000
1990
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
CA
WI
NY
ID
PA
Source: USDA, NASS
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MN
TX
MI
NM
OH
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Production Trend
U.S. Top 10 Milk Producing States (2008) – Billion Pounds
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
MN
8.8
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
CA
WI
NY
ID
PA
MN
TX
NM
MI
WA
Source: USDA, NASS
Minnesota Dairy Production and Dairy Cows (1990-2008)
Milk production (million lb.)
Dairy cows (1,000 head)
11,000
10,000
800
700
8,000
600
7,000
500
6,000
400
5,000
4,000
300
3,000
200
2,000
100
1,000
Source: USDA, NASS
-3-
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
0
19
94
0
Cows
9,000
19
92
•
19
90
•
Minnesota produced 8.8 billion pounds of milk in 2008, a slight increase from the
previous year.
After years of decline, the past four years have seen an annual production
growth averaging 2%.
From 1990 to 2008, milk production in Minnesota decreased by 12% while dairy
cow numbers decreased by 35%.
Production
•
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Milk Yield
Minnesota Milk Production and Yield (1990-2008)
Milk production (mil lb.)
Yield/cow (lb.)
11,000
20,000
10,000
18,000
9,000
16,000
8,000
14,000
7,000
10,000
5,000
Yield
12,000
6,000
8,000
4,000
6,000
3,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
2,000
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
0
1990
•
In Minnesota, milk yield per cow increased by 34% from 1990 to 2008, from
14,000 pounds to 19,000 pounds.
Minnesota ranks No. 22 in milk yield among U.S. dairy states.
Production
•
Source: USDA, NASS
U.S. Top States: Milk Yield (2008) - Pounds
25,000
MN
22,500
20,000
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
WA
NM
ID
CA
MI
TX
Source: USDA, NASS
-4-
IA
SD
NY
WI
PA
MN
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Cash Receipts
•
Dairy is Minnesota’s second largest livestock sector (after hogs), contributing
24% of the state’s total livestock cash receipts.
Dairy’s cash receipts increased 58% from 2006 to 2007, from $1.1 billion to $1.7
billion – the biggest annual increase in the past three decades, due to historical
high milk prices in 2007.
Minnesota Livestock Cash Receipts by Sector (2007)
All other
1%
Sheep/lamb
0.3%
Poultry
17%
Hogs
35%
Cattle/calves
23%
Dairy
24%
Source: USDA, NASS
Minnesota Livestock Cash Receipts (1990-2007) – Million $
$2,200
Cattle & Calves
Dairy
Hogs
Poultry
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
•
Source: USDA, NASS
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MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Farm Numbers
•
•
•
Farms numbers are decreasing in Minnesota, and livestock and dairy farms are
no exception.
Minnesota has fewer dairy farms today than a decade ago.
Due to industry consolidation, the average size of dairy farms also increased,
from less than 50 cows per farm in 1990 to 90 cows per farm in 2007.
Minnesota Livestock Farms: Change in Numbers
35,000
1992
1997
2002
2007
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Cattle/calves
Dairy
Hogs
Poultry
Sheep
Source: USDA-Ag Census
Minnesota Dairy Cow Inventory by Farm Size (% inventory)
100%
<200 head
90%
>200 head
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1992
1997
2002
Source: Ag Census
-6-
2007
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
County Ranking
•
•
Stearns County is the largest dairy county in Minnesota, followed by Winona,
Morrison, Otter Tail, and Goodhue.
Among the top 10 dairy counties, Stearns, Morrison, and Stevens are the three
counties with increased production from 2000 to 2007. The others had
production declines.
Minnesota Top Dairy Counties – 2007 (Million Pounds)
2007
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2007
1,257
508
502
426
388
354
295
290
233
210
2006
1,205
489
486
410
382
337
200
296
221
213
2005
1154.5
478
479
408.5
377
325
151
294
218
209
2000
1,154
521
483
528
467
379
43
357
269
244
2000-2007
Change
9%
-2%
4%
-19%
-17%
-7%
586%
-19%
-13%
-14%
All other counties
4,193
4,125
4,101
5,051
-17%
State total
8,656
8,364
8,195
9,493
-9%
County
Stearns
Winona
Morrison
Otter Tail
Goodhue
Wabasha
Stevens
Todd
Fillmore
Benton
Source: USDA, NASS
Top 10 Counties: Milk Production (1,000 lb.)
1 ,4 0 0
1 ,2 0 0
1 ,0 0 0
800
600
400
200
Source: USDA, NASS
-7-
n
B
en
to
e
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or
To
s
St
ev
en
ha
ab
W
dh
G
oo
rT
tt e
O
as
ue
l
ai
n
so
M
or
ri
in
W
St
ea
rn
on
s
a
dd
0
2000
Rank
1
3
4
2
5
6
47
7
8
11
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Prices
Minnesota Milk Production and Prices (1990-2008)
11,000
Production (mil. Lb.)
$20.00
Prices ($/cwt.)
10,000
$18.00
9,000
$16.00
8,000
$12.00
6,000
$10.00
5,000
$8.00
4,000
$6.00
3,000
2,000
$4.00
1,000
$2.00
0
$0.00
Source: USDA, NASS
Dairy Prices: Farm-Retail Spread - 1998-2008 (1982-84=100)
230
F a r m v a lu e
R e t a il p r ic e
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Source: USDA, ERS
-8-
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
50
Prices
$14.00
7,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
•
19
•
In 2008, milk prices received by Minnesota growers averaged $19.08/cwt., a
second historical high.
However, milk prices saw significant declines in early 2009, averaging
$12.60/cwt. in the first four months – the lowest level since 2002.
Farm-retail price spreads show more fluctuations in farm-gate value than retail
value.
Production
•
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Export
•
•
Minnesota is the fifth largest dairy exporter among all U.S. states.
In 2007, Minnesota exported $113 million dairy products, up from $93 million in
2006, a 22% increase.
Minnesota’s dairy export products include dry and condensed milk (80%), cheese
(15%), and butter (6%).
Mexico is Minnesota’s largest dairy export market, followed by Canada.
MN Largest Dairy Export Markets (2008)
Mexico
25%
All other
32%
Vietnam
2%
Canada
11%
Egypt
2%
Korea
3%
Malaysia
3%
Philippines
6%
China Japan
5%
5%
Indonesia
6%
Source: USDA-BICO
Minnesota Dairy Export Trend (Million $)
$120
$100
Trendline
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
•
•
Source: USDA, NASS
-9-
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Feed Use by Dairy Production
•
Dairy production supports crop farming through feed utilization, a significant
market for Minnesota’s corn and soybean crops.
In 2008, dairy production consumed 44 million bushels of corn, about 4% of
Minnesota’s total corn crop.
Dairy production also consumed 141,600 tons of soybean meal in 2008, about
15% of total soybean meal fed to all livestock.
Dairy cows are the second largest feed users of corn and third largest feed users
of soybean meal in Minnesota.
•
•
•
Corn: Feed Use by Dairy (2008)
MN Corn Utilization (2008)
Beef
15%
Residual*
7%
Other
1%
Export
42%
Processing
34%
Hogs
46%
Poultry
17%
Feed Use
17%
Dairy
21%
*Residual: all other uses
Source: PRX and MDA/AMS
Soybean Meal: Feed Use by Dairy (2008)
MN Soybean Utilization (2008)
Residual*
4%
Beef
9%
Dairy
15%
Other
0.5%
Hogs
41%
Export
40%
Crush
56%
Poultry
35%
*Residual: all other uses
Source: PRX and MDA/AMS
- 10 -
MINNESOTA DAIRY INDUSTRY
Economic Impact
•
Minnesota’s dairy industry includes both dairy production and processing, with a
combined total annual output value of $4.6 billion.
Every dollar from dairy production and processing generates about $2 in statewide economic activities.
The multiplier effect of Minnesota’s dairy industry to the state economy:
o Total economic output: $8.96 billion
o Total employment: 39,085 jobs.
•
•
Output Impact of Dairy Production & Processing: $8.96 billion
Economic
activities
generated by
increased
income
$1.1 billion
Dairy
production &
processing
$4.6 billion
Additional
production
activities
$3.3 billion
Source: MDA/AMS
Output Impact (Billion $)
Employment Impact (# of jobs)
39,085
$9.0
$10.0
40,000
$9.0
35,000
$8.0
30,000
$7.0
$6.0
25,000
$4.6
$5.0
17,255
20,000
$3.3
12,616
$4.0
15,000
$3.0
$1.1
$2.0
9,214
10,000
5,000
$1.0
0
$0.0
Direct
Indirect
Induced
Direct
Total
Indirect
Induced
Total
Source: MDA/AMS
Note: Economic impacts include Direct, Indirect, and Induced impacts. Direct Impact represents hog production at
farm-level. Indirect Impact represents the production activities of all other economic sectors related to hog
production. Induced Impact represents the additional economic activities generated by the expenditures of new
income from the direct and indirect impacts. Total Impact is the sum of direct, indirect and induced impacts.
- 10 -
U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY
Production Trend
U.S. and Minnesota Milk Production Trends (Billion Pounds)
200.0
US
10.5
MN
190.0
10.0
180.0
9.5
8.5
160.0
8.0
150.0
7.5
Source: USDA, NASS
- 12 -
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
6.0
20
00
120.0
19
98
6.5
19
96
130.0
19
94
7.0
19
92
140.0
MN
9.0
170.0
19
90
•
•
U.S. production increased by 29% from 1990 to 2008, to a record-high of 190
billion pounds.
U.S. dairy cow numbers decreased by 7% during the same time.
In the long term, milk yield per cow is projected to continuously increase while
cow numbers will decrease.
US
•
U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY
U.S. Dairy Consumption Trend
•
U.S. total consumption of dairy products increased by 29% from 1980 to 2007.
While fluid milk consumption declined by 20%, cheese consumption increase by
33%.
There are four major categories of U.S. milk utilization: cheese (40%), fluid
(32%), butter (14%), and all other (14%).
U.S. Dairy Production & Consumption (1990-2008) – Billion Pounds
Production
200
Production
Consumption
190
Consumption
180
170
160
150
140
130
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: USDA, ERS
U.S. Per Capita Dairy Consumption (1997-2007) – Pounds
610
All dairy*
230
Fluid milk
220
600
210
590
200
580
190
180
570
170
560
160
550
150
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
•
•
* Milk equivalent
Source: USDA, ERS
- 13 -
U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY
U.S. Dairy Exports and Imports
U.S. Dairy Export and Import Trend (Million $)
Imports
$4,000
Exports
$3,500
$3,000
Imports
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
Exports
$500
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
$0
19
94
•
19
92
•
U.S. dairy exports reached record levels in 2008 with a total value of $3.55
billion, despite weakening global demand among economic crisis.
U.S. dairy exports have been increasing at an annual average rate of 16%, with
largest increases taken place after 2004. The U.S. is becoming a more
significant player in the global dairy export market.
Historically, the U.S. imported more dairy products than its exports.
19
90
•
Source: USDA-FATUS
U.S. Dairy Export by Product - 2008 (Million $)
Fluid milk/cream
Condensed/evaporated
milk
Yogurt
Icecream
Casein
Dry whole milk &
cream
Butter
Whey
Cheese
Non-fat dry milk
$0
$200
$400
Source: USDA-FAS
- 14 -
$600
$800
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400
U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY
U.S. Dairy Imports by Country of Origin
•
•
The majority of U.S. dairy imports come from just four countries: New Zealand,
Canada, Italy, and France, with a combined value of $1.6 billion or 54% of U.S.
total dairy imports.
The U.S. is the world’s No. 14 cheese exporter and No. 6 cheese importer.
U.S. Dairy Import Trend: Top Suppliers (2000-2008) – Million $
New Zealand
$800
Canada
Italy
France
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: USDA, FAS
U.S. Dairy Imports by Country of Origin (2008)
Country of Origin
Import Value
(Million $)
NEW ZEALAND
CANADA
ITALY
FRANCE
NETHERLANDS
MEXICO
IRELAND
AUSTRALIA
INDIA
ARGENTINA
DENMARK
SWITZERLAND
POLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
SPAIN
NORWAY
GERMANY
GREECE
$704.29
$387.57
$355.24
$193.96
$152.88
$139.64
$129.07
$123.69
$109.12
$105.61
$103.37
$67.82
$55.02
$46.67
$45.31
$44.80
$42.46
$40.45
$35.64
All other
$165.61
Total
$3,048.20
Source: USDA, FAS
- 15 -
WORLD DAIRY SITUATION
Largest Producers and Consumers
World’s Top Dairy Producers (2007)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Top
Producers
Cow Milk
Production
(1,000 MT)
U.S.
India
China
Russia
Germany
Brazil
France
New Zealand
UK
Ukraine
Poland
Rank
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
84,189
42,140
32,820
31,950
27,900
25,327
23,705
15,842
14,450
12,300
11,800
Top
Producers
Cow Milk
Production
(1,000 MT)
Italy
Pakistan
Turkey
Netherlands
Argentina
Australia
Mexico
Japan
Canada
11,000
11,000
11,000
10,750
10,500
10,350
9,599
8,140
8,000
World Total
560,487
Source: FAO and MDA/AMS
Per Capita Fluid Milk Consumption – Selected Countries (kg/year)
120
105
100
95
92
87
84
80
78
68
54
60
49
41
40
20
37
35
11
w
Source: USDA, FAO, and MDA/AMS
- 16 -
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•
•
The U.S. is the world’s No. 1 milk producer from dairy cows, contributing 15% of
world’s total production.
The U.S. also ranks No. 1 in cheese production and No. 2 in whey production.
As a major consumer of dairy products, U.S. ranks No. 1 in cheese consumption
and No. 2 in fluid milk consumption; on a per-capita basis, U.S. ranks No. 15 in
cheese consumption and No. 22 in fluid milk consumption.
Au
st
ra
lia
Ca
na
da
•
Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA)
Our mission is to enhance Minnesotans' quality of life by ensuring the integrity of our food supply, the
health of our environment, and the strength of our agricultural economy.
Our three general areas of responsibility include:
• Protecting our food supply;
• Protecting our natural resources; and
• Cultivating our agricultural economy.
The MDA’s Agricultural Marketing Services Division (AMS) works to develop and diversify Minnesota's
agricultural industries, markets and products through market research, market promotion, education and
technical assistance. Division programs focus on developing domestic and international market
opportunities for Minnesota producers and marketers.
For more information, please contact:
Agricultural Marketing Services Division
Minnesota Department of Agriculture
625 North Robert Street, St. Paul, MN 55155
Tel: 651-201-6384, Fax: 651-201-6114
E-mail: su.ye@state.mn.us
Web: www.mda.state.mn.us
May 2009
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE AMERICANS WITH DISABILITIES’ ACT, AN ALTERNATIVE FORM OF COMMUNICATION
IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST. TTY: 1-800-627-3529
- 17 -