ICAN 2012
Narjess Teyssier
Chief Economic Analysis and Policy Section
ICAO
Jeddah, December 8, 2012
8 December 2012
Page 1
ICAN 2012: A successful event
8 December 2012
Page 2
ICAN benefits for States
Venue
Year
Dubai
2008
UAE
Istanbul
2009
Turkey
Kingston
2010
Jamaica
Mumbai
2011
India
Number of
participating States
27
52
38
64
Number of bilateral
meetings held
100
200
200
340
Number of Bilateral
Agreements signed
at the meeting
20
60
60
120
In 2010 Estimated Cost savings to participating States: Several million USD
8 December 2012
Page 3
ICAO´s Policies and guidance material
Chicago Convention
basis for key policies
8 December 2012
A37-20
Page 4
4
Passenger traffic in 2011
+6.5%
+3.6%
30
Departures
million
Passenger-km
trillion
5.1
+5.6%
Passengers
8 December 2012
billion
2.7
(%): 2011/2010 growth
Page 5
Air Cargo in 2011
182
51
-0.1%
YoY
Air freight in the
international trade
By value
billion
Freight Tonnes-Kilometer performed
+1.4%
YoY
million
Freight Tonnes carried
Note: Scheduled services
8 December 2012
$5.3
billion
Page 6
6
Past decade traffic growth
Passenger traffic market share
By airline type
Non IATA
IATA members
airlines
79%
21%
Passenger traffic market share
By airline type
IATA members
93%
Non IATA
airlines
7%
4500
2000-2010
4000
+4.4 % p.a.
Passenger traffic
Billion RPKs
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Source: ICAO, IATA
8 December 2012
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Page 7
Market Shares* Achieved in 2011
International traffic represents 62% of the total passenger
traffic
International passenger traffic**
North
America
15%
Latin
America
4%
Europe
39%
Asia and
Pacific
27%
Middle East
12%
Domestic passenger traffic**
Latin
America
7%
North
America
50%
Europe
8%
Africa
1%
Middle East
1%
Asia and
Pacific
33%
Africa
3%
* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region
**Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometer
8 December 2012
Page 8
Long-term passenger traffic forecast
Total World RPKs (billions)
AAGR for 20 years forecasts
14000
5.2 % p.a.
12000
10000
4.5%p.a
History
8000
1990-2010:
4.4 %p.a.
3.6% p.a.
6000
2030-2040:
4.3 %p.a.
4000
2000
1995
Source: ICAO
2000
2005
2010
Most Likely
2015
Low
2020
2025
2030
High
High GDP scenario = +0.3% for developed countries & +0.6 for the developing countries
Low GDP scenario= -0.5 for developed regions & -0.1 for the developing regions.
8 December 2012
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Air travellers represent 51% of
international tourist
Inbound travellers by mode of transport
Water
6%
Rail
2%
Aviation and Tourism: Key figures
Road
41%
Source: UNWTO
8 December 2012
Air
51%
Note: 2010 figures for international tourists
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10
Value chain of air transport
STATES
(Regulatory framework)
ANSPs
MROs
Airports
Airlines
Ground
Handling
Aircraft
manufacturers
Lessors
8 December 2012
Travel agents &
GDS
Fuel
suppliers
Seeks services from
Page 11
IATS: ICAO Air Transport Symposium
18 – 20 April 2012
TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
• Main Impediment: “Fragmentation” of
markets and regulation
• Strategy: “Seamlessness” while
– Striking a balance between security and facilitation
– Minimizing impact on environment
8 December 2012
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From ATConf/5….
to ATConf/6
Theme: “Challenges &
Opportunities for
Liberalization”
Role of ICAO:
“Facilitate, promote
and assist States in
the liberalization
Outcome / Results
process”
8 December 2012
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The nine Freedoms of air
APPENDIX C
Nine Freedoms of the Air
1. Overfly
A
B
Home State
2. Technical stop
B
A
Home State
3. Set down traffic
A
Home State
B
4. Pick up traffic
A
Home State
B
5. Carry traffic to/from
third State
B
A
Home State
6. Carry traffic via
Home State
A
B
Home State
7. Operate from second State
to/from third State
A
Home State
B
8. Carry traffic between two points
in a foreign State
A
Home State
9. Operate only in a foreign State
A
Home State
Figure 4.1-1.
8 December 2012
The Nine Freedoms of the Air (Doc 9626, Chapter 4.1)
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Top 5 States involved in bilateral Open Skies
Agreements (OSAs)*
State
Number
United States
109
United Arab Emirates
77
Canada
43
Singapore
34
Bahrain
26
Source: Governmental Internet sites
*Considered as an OSA when there is no restriction on 5th Freedom and above
Status as of October 2012
8 December 2012
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States involved in bilateral OSAs
By October 2012, 145 States signed one or more bilateral OSAs
8 December 2012
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Toward more consolidation: Alliances,
Airlines’ mergers and acquisitions
8 December 2012
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2012: Alliances regional distribution
3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
Star Alliance: 28%
Star Alliance: 28%
One world: 34%
One world: 29%
Skyteam: 32%
Skyteam: 28%
One world: 1%
Skyteam: 4%
Star Alliance: 31%
One world: 33%
Skyteam: 31%
Star Alliance: 8%
Star Alliance: 5%
One world: 2%
Skyteam: 1%
Skyteam: 2%
Most well-known Non Aligned airlines
8 December 2012
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Indicators: Air transport services conducted
under liberalized agreements or arrangements
As a % of international scheduled services
Frequencies
Number of frequencies
Number of country-pair routes
60%
Country pairs
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
Source : ICAO
8 December 2012
0%
1995
1999
2004
2009
Page 19
Facilitating Liberalization
Template Air Services Agreement
TASA
TASA
TASA
8 December 2012
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World Air Services Agreements (WASA)
Web Database
• Original text of over 2500
bilateral agreements
• 90 distinct provisions covered
• Summary of the routes
exchanged
• A built-in search engine
8 December 2012
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NEW ICAO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE
Economic Development of Air Transport
 To foster the development of a sound and
economically viable air transport system
 New SO reflects the needs for ICAO’s leadership
in developing and harmonizing the global
regulatory framework
 Helps focus ICAO’s work to meet the need of
Member States and aviation stakeholders
8 December 2012
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Sixth Worldwide Air Transport Conference
(ATConf/6)
Theme :
Objectives :
“Sustainability of Air Transport”
to develop guidelines and,
to develop an action plan for a global regulatory framework.
www.icao.int/meetings/atconf6/Pages/default.aspx
18-22 March 2013
ICAO Headquarters, Montreal
8 December 2012
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Pre-Conference Symposium
• One-day symposium: Montréal, 17 March 2013
– Better prepare participants
– Join forces with the major stakeholders organizations such
as IATA, ACI, CANSO, TIACA, UNWTO.
– Very high level speakers
– December 2012: Electronic bulletin for invitation including
the preliminary symposium agenda
8 December 2012
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Challenges and issues
• Market access
• Air carrier ownership and control
• Consumer protection
•
Fair competition and safeguards
• Funding and financing of the air transport system
• Taxation of international air transport
Main challenge:
Implementation of ICAO policies and guidance
8 December 2012
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SHUKRAN
Thank You,
Merci,
Spasiba,
Xie Xie,
Gracias
8 December 2012
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© ICAO All rights reserved.
This document and all information
contained herein is the sole property of
ICAO. No intellectual property rights are
granted by the delivery of this document or
the disclosure of its content. This
document shall not be reproduced or
disclosed to a third party without prior
permission of ICAO. This document and its
content shall not be used for any purpose
other than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein are based on
the mentioned assumptions and are
expressed in good faith. Where the
supporting grounds for these statements
are not shown, ICAO will be pleased to
explain the basis thereof.
8 December 2012
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