AP Statistics Course Description The purpose of this course is to introduce students to the major concepts and tools for collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions from data. Students are exposed to four broad conceptual themes: 1. Exploring Data: Observing patterns and departures from patterns 2. Planning a Study: Deciding what and how to measure 3. Anticipating Patterns: Producing models using probability and simulation 4. Statistical Inference: Confirming models Materials required TEXT: YMS, The Practice of Statistics, 2nd edition TI-83 plus, silver or any TI-84 calculator – a graphing calculator will be used daily and is required for this course A binder or folder for class notes, free response questions and tests/quizzes A notebook for homework/classwork (or a separate section in your binder) Additional workbook – these will be purchased at the beginning of the school year Course Schedule – all section numbers refer to your YMS textbook. We will also use past AP exams to review the topics that will be covered on the exam. First Semester 1.1 – Displaying distributions with graphs 1.2 – Describing distributions with numbers 2.1 – Density curves and the normal distributions 2.2 – Standard normal calculations Test – Chapters 1 & 2 3.1 – Scatterplots 3.2 – Correlation 3.3 – Least-Squares Regression 4.1 – Transforming Relationships 4.2 – Cautions about correlation & regression 4.3 – Relations in categorical data Test – Chapters 3 & 4 5.1 – Designing samples 5.2 – Designing experiments 5.3 – Simulating experiments Project – designing your own experiment Test – Chapter 5 6.1 – The Idea of Probability 6.2 – Probability Models 6.3 – General Probability Rules 7.1 – Discrete & Continuous Random Variables 7.2 – Means & Variances of Random Variables Test – Chapters 6 & 7 Review for midterm Exam Second Semester 8.1 – The binomial distributions 8.2 – The geometric distributions 9.1 – Sampling distributions 9.2 – Sampling proportions 9.3 – Sample means Test – Chapters 8 & 9 10.1 – Estimating with Confidence 10.2 – Tests of Significance 10.3 – Making Sense of Statistical Significance 10.4 – Inference as a Decision 11.1 – Inference for the mean of a population 11.2 – Comparing two means 12.1 – Inference for a population proportion 12.2 – Comparing two proportions Project – Testing advertised weights of candy bars Test – Chapters 10, 11 & 12 13.1 – Test for goodness of fit 13.2 – Inference for two-way tables 14.1 – Inference about the model Review for AP Exam (approximately 2-3 weeks) Grading approx. 60% of your grade is based on tests, projects and free response questions approx. 20% of your grade is based on homework, quizzes and daily assignments Approx. 20% of your grade is based on semester exams (midterm and full length AP practice exam taken in the Spring) Getting extra help Due to the fast-paced nature of this course, please arrange to see me for extra help as soon as you are having difficulty. You can email me with questions or stop by our classroom before or after school. ESS tutoring is also available after school. Reading You are expected to read your textbook throughout the year. Specific reading assignments will not be given. However, all students are expected to read the sections of the book as they are covered in class. Homework Assignments Homework assignments are an essential part of this class. Homework will be assigned daily from your textbook and you are expected to have your homework completed in pencil by the beginning of class on the day it is due. Homework assignments will usually not be graded, however, they will be discussed extensively in class. Throughout the year, we will work through past AP Free Response Questions. When these questions are assigned for homework, you should work on these on your own. You should not ask for help from other students or teachers so that you can see how you will perform on the AP exam. When these problems are collected for a grade, they will be scored according to the AP rubrics and converted to 10 point grades. Projects You will complete two projects during the year. For the first project, you will design, implement and analyze an experiment. For the second project, you will use candy to test a hypothesis about the advertised weight of the candy. You will receive more information about these projects later in the year, but a description of each one is listed below. Experimental Design Project Your job is to design and carry out an experiment. Your experiment should be a completely randomized design. This means that you will have at least one treatment group and a control group (I strongly suggest that you only have one treatment group and a control group to keep things simple) and units/subjects will only be in one of the groups. Remember that this is an experiment and not an observational study so you do need to impose some sort of treatment to at least one group. However, your “treatments” imposed on subjects cannot be anything medical in nature. For example, you cannot ask them to take any type of medicine (even over the counter medicine) or anything else that would require the supervision of a medical professional. There are lots of treatments that will work – you may use any of the suggestions I give in class or come up with your own idea. If you do not use a design from this list, I must approve your design ahead of time. The following describes everything that should be included in your report. Please make sure to address everything in the order that it is listed here. A. Purpose: Discuss your objectives, including what questions you are trying to answer and what information you are trying to obtain from your population. (15 points) B. The subjects: Describe in detail how you randomly allocated your subjects into treatment and control groups. (10 points) C. The experiment: Include a detailed diagram of your experiment (this may be done by hand). In addition to the diagram, define the factor(s), treatment(s) and response variable(s) for your experiment. You should also include copies of any handouts that were given to participants in this section. (20 points) D. The data: Present the results of your experiment in an Excel worksheet (a table of your results) AND graphical format (you can use Excel or another computer program). You should have at least one graph of your data but you may choose to have more graphs to help explain your results. All graphs should be created in Excel using the Chart Wizard or another computer program that will generate graphs. In order to earn full credit, you must analyze more than just treatment vs. control. I’ll give examples of this in class. (15 points) E. Conclusions: Write up a conclusion to your experiment – be sure to address the following: What were the results of your experiment? Were there possible sources of error (bias, lurking variables, placebo effect, etc.) and what were their effect of the data? How do these limit the validity of your conclusions? What did you do to reduce their effects? Were you surprised by your results or did they confirm what you already thought? How would you do the experiment differently next time? Feel free to include any other information you feel is necessary in your conclusion. (25 points) F. Signature Sheet or Pictures – turn in the completed signature sheet with at least 20 names and signatures from the people who participated in your experiment or pictures of your experiment if your units were not people. (5 points) Inference Project Your job is to test a company’s claim about the weight of their product. Remember to follow all steps from our notes when you run your test of significance and construct a confidence interval. All work should be typed and explained in detail (if you need help typing math symbols, please see me). This project is worth 100 points in the major category. Using a scale that weighs in grams, weigh each of your samples and record their weight. Remember that you should not include the weight of your packaging. _ Enter the weights into L1 and calculate your sample statistics ( x and s x ) Use this data to perform an appropriate test of significance at the α = .05 level. You are testing to see if the weight differs from the advertised weight. Be sure to follow ALL steps for performing this test. Construct a 95% confidence interval. Compare your results of the confidence interval to your results of the significance test. Explain how these two results are related. Write a business letter (at least one page) to the company explaining your findings in language that someone without a course in statistics could understand. In your letter, be sure to address the results of your test. You may also want to give recommendations for what they could do to improve their production (this part is a requirement if you rejected H0 as a result of your test) Scoring Guide ______/5 Samples are weighed and recorded (weight of packaging is not included in the weights) ______/5 Sample Statistics are calculated correctly ______/10 Correct Null and Alternative Hypothesis are stated ______/5 Correct assumptions are met or addressed or before running the test ______/5 Proper test of significance was used ______/10 Results of test are displayed including a graph ______/10 Correct Conclusion is stated in the context of the problem ______/10 Confidence Interval is calculated correctly ______/10 Connection is made between the confidence interval and the results from the test of significance ______/20 Appropriate mathematical language is used in the letter to the company ______/5 Correct grammar is used in letter ______/5 Project is typed & neat