SETTING AN E-AMBITION FOR THE
NETHERLANDS: ECOMMERCE AND
CROSS-BORDER TRADE IN 2020
In cooperation with:
Presentatie op 26 september 2013 van 10:35 – 11:00
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Contents
Where do we stand today?
Where are we going?
What should be our e-ambition?
© Shopping 2020
1
The combined eCommerce market for retail, travel, and insurance in
the Netherlands has surged in 2005-2012
Growth of the online retail, travel and insurance market
Characteristics of eCommerce growth
NL for 2005-2012
Insurance
eCommerce revenues
EUR billion
Travel
Retail
▪1 Increasing number of online buyers
10.4
+16% p.a.
7.5
6.7
5.4
3.7
1.6
1.1
1.0
4.3
1.7
2.2
1.8
2.5
▪2 Higher average online spending per person
2.3
2.2
▪3 Increasing number of orders
2.1
3.2
3.5
▪4 Growing number of online shops
2.9
2.5
▪5 Increasing online share of products
1.8
1.3
1.2
8.5
2.0
1.9
1.8
9.6
3.0
3.6
4.1
4.6
vs. services
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SOURCE: Thuiswinkel; Forrester Research; Euromonitor; McKinsey Global Insurance Pools; team analysis
© Shopping 2020
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Our consumers as well as our retailers are leading the way in eCommerce EU
Percentage, 2012
EU
Non -EU
Consumers
ordering goods or
services online
Netherlands
Denmark
United Kingdom
Ireland
Sweden
Germany
Czech Republic
Austria
France
Finland
Poland
Slovakia
European Union
Luxembourg
Malta
Slovenia
Belgium
Latvia
Spain
Estonia
Cyprus
Lithuania
Hungary
Italy
El Salvador
Bulgaria
Romani
Romania
Iceland
Croatia
Norway
74 71 68 66
64 63 62 60 58 58 56 56
64
53 50 48 44 44
54
43 43 42 41 39 37 35 34 34
31 26
26
Retailers selling
online
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Ireland
Malta
Spain
El Salvador
Denmark
France
European Union
Finland
Slovakia
Belgium
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Portugal
Germany
Sweden
Italy
Czech Republic
Hungary
Latvia
Poland
Austria
Estonia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Lithuania
Romania
Iceland
Croatia
Norway
71 70 65 64 63
67
59 57 52 51 50 50
51
49 49 47 47 46 46 45 44 44 43
40 39 39 36 33
40
31 27
SOURCE: Eurostat, Information society statistics (2012); data extracted in EC (2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border Trade
and Consumer Protection
© Shopping 2020
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19% of Dutch consumers ordered online from other EU countries in 2012,
which is slightly higher than the EU average of 15%
Percentage, 2012
EU
Non -EU
48
42 41
37
33
31
26 26
24
20 19 19
18 17 17
20
15 15 15 14
13 12
11 11 10 10
7 7
5 5
6
Ireland
Malta
Luxembourg
Austria
Denmark
Cyprus
Finland
Belgium
United Kingdom
Netherlands
France
Slovakia
Sweden
Estonia
European Union
Latvia
El Salvador
Slovenia
Germany
Spain
Lithuania
Italy
Bulgaria
Portugal
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Iceland
Croatia
Norway
Consumers
ordering goods or
services online
from sellers from
other European
countries
SOURCE: Eurostat, Information society statistics (2012); data extracted in EC
(2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border Trade and Consumer Protection
© Shopping 2020
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But… we don’t make it into the top 10 of countries when it comes to
ease of internet entrepreneurship
Indexed to 100: ease of internet entrepreneurship index
Denmark
86
Estonia
63
Canada
84
Israel
62
New Zealand
80
Luxembourg
61
Australia
79
Belgium
59
United Kingdom
78
Germany
59
Norway
77
South Korea
57
United States
76
Austria
55
Ease of internet
entrepreneurship
index:
Finland
74
Japan
54

Switzerland
72
Slovak Republic
46
Ease of starting
new business
Taiwan
71
Slovenia
46

Sweden
71
Portugal
45
Ease of financing
new business
France
71
Italy
45

Internet
accessibility
Ireland
70
Turkey
43
Netherlands
66
Russia
42
Iceland
66
Spain
42
Hungary
64
Chile
42
SOURCE: World Bank; Computer Industry Almanac; ITU; Capital IQ; World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, 2010–2011; Inter© Shopping 2020
national Finance Corporation; Speedtest.net; domain name registration Web sites; Transparency International; McKinsey analysis
5
… only 6% of cross border Commerce consumers within the EU have bought
products from the Netherlands, most are from Belgium and Germany
NON EXHAUSTIVE
2011, Percent
Countries from which you have bought products online
Origin
cross-border
shopper
Target country
Austria
Belgium
Denmark France
Netherlands
Germany Italy
Poland
Spain
Sweden
United
Kingdom
Austria
…
2
0
5
90
4
4
2
1
1
13
Belgium
2
…
0
42
26
3
38
0
2
1
20
Denmark
3
1
…
5
32
2
8
1
2
22
48
Finland
4
2
5
5
38
3
7
1
2
22
40
France
1
15
2
…
41
3
3
1
5
1
29
31
4
4
9
…
5
11
3
4
2
20
Italy
4
4
2
26
36
…
4
2
7
2
29
Luxembourg
4
19
1
43
78
5
5
0
2
1
19
Netherlands
3
15
2
11
43
3
…
2
4
1
21
Portugal
1
1
1
16
18
4
3
0
21
1
41
Spain
2
5
2
27
22
8
2
0
…
1
28
Sweden
3
2
15
9
32
3
3
2
3
…
34
U.K.
2
3
2
17
21
6
6
3
8
2
…
Total
8
5
2
14
27
4
6
2
5
2
24
Germany
SOURCE: Civic Consulting (2011); “Consumer market study on the functioning
of eCommerce” in EC (2012) Bringing eCommerce benefits to customers
© Shopping 2020
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… and: could we have more Dutch winners?
Major trends, 2000-2010
Winners
Losers
Internet 2.0
E-commerce, media, social
BRIC
Major emerging countries will fuel the world’s growth
Need for convenience
From low-cost products to single-serve,
immediate offers
Personal devices and mobility
From desktops to laptops, mobile
Good to be green
Consider environmental impact of actions
© Shopping 2020
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Contents
Where do we stand today?
Where are we going?
What should be our e-ambition?
© Shopping 2020
8
Where are we going?
EUR billion
Online penetration
Cross border as a % of total
2020
VOC 2.0 – “Attract
shoppers from
outside of Europe”
24.4%
15.1%
2020
BEST IN EUROPE –
“Boost cross border
sales within Europe”
22.5%
8.1%
2020
WORLD CLASS HOME
MARKET – “Accelerate
domestic growth”
21.6%
4.1%
2020
14.3%
“Do nothing”
6.1%
2012
Current state
8.8%
6.1%
1 Excluding Europe
SOURCE: Forrester Research; team analysis
NL
Europe
World1
Total
NL
Europe
World1
Total
NL
Europe
World1
Total
NL
Europe
World1
Total
NL
Europe
World1
Total
28.2
2.5
2.5
33.2
28.2
2.5
0.0
30.7
28.2
1.1
0.0
29.3
18.3
1.1
0.0
19.4
9.8
0.6
0.0
10.4
© Shopping 2020
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As a result, we can distinguish 4 scenarios with expectations and unknowns
EUR billions
Global
Multichannel
Convergence
~40?
150?
7+
Protectionism
~33?
20+
Size of
market
opportunity
?
What is our
cross-border
ambition?
~1301?
1 Total NL market estimate for retail, travel, insurance through offline and online channels combined in 2020
SOURCE: Forrester; team analysis
© Shopping 2020
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Contents
Where do we stand today?
Where are we going?
What should be our e-ambition?
© Shopping 2020
11
If we do nothing, we can be sure to stay relatively small
Online sales retail, travel, and insurance
Percent
6
US
UK
Germany
China
Japan
Netherlands
1
8
36
9
8 2
11
72
11
16
1
Total sales
EUR billion
53
13
63
13
40
205
522
1,466
2005
2012
2020
SOURCE: Forrester Research; Euromonitor; team analysis
© Shopping 2020
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What should be our ambition?
We, as experts and entrepreneurs, believe we can capture at a
minimum EUR 30-35 billion in 2020, of which cross-border
eCommerce taking at least 15% share”
Aiming big requires us to embrace convergence and reduce
protectionism , seeing it as a chance not as a threat
We have to reach Europeans beyond Belgium and Germany
to lift our cross-border reach and relevance
We need to invest in talent, knowledge, cooperation;
we need to innovate ourselves to spark innovation
We need an ambition, translated
in an action plan and solid execution
It is not what we believe or say, but what we do, that will make a
difference, in what could, or should be our ambition
© Shopping 2020
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In case of any questions, please contact us
McKinsey team
Dymfke Kuijpers
Miranda Berkhof
Principal
Engagement Manager
T +31 (0)20 551 3775
M +31 (0)6 223 833 60
E Dymfke_Kuijpers@mckinsey.com
T +31 (0)20 551 3031
M +31 (0)6 549 062 65
E Miranda_Berkhof@mckinsey.com
Jop Weterings
Mirjam Bani
Consultant
Research Analyst
T +31 (0)20 551 3070
M +31 (0)6 233 328 42
E Jop_Weterings@mckinsey.com
T +31 (0)20 551 3697
M +31 (0)6 229 786 38
E Mirjam_Bani@mckinsey.com
© Shopping 2020
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