Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
The Mean Life of Famous People from
Hammurabi to Einstein
David de la Croix* and Omar Licandro**
*IRES and CORE, UcLouvain, **IAE-CSIC and Barcelona GSE
Marseille, April 2012
1 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Main contribution
Measure the mean life of famous people from 2400 BC to 1880 AD
First global long-term picture
Main observations:
1. Celebrities’ mean life displays no trend until the 17th century
fluctuating around 60 years for 4 millennia
2. Increases from them, well before the Industrial Revolution (IR)
getting 69 years for the cohort born in 1879
main observations
why?
2 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Evidence on adult life expectancy
• Life expectancy at 20 of hunter-gatherer is 60, Finch (2009)
• Adult life expectancy displays no trend before the IR, Clark
• Population data are recent:
Sweden (1750-), France (1810-), England (1840-)
• Clear evidence of improvements in the 19th Century
Cutler, Deaton and Lleras-Muney (JEP, 2006) evidence
• Studies on specific groups and locations
• Boucekkine et al (2003): adult life expectancy increases in
Geneva and Venice late 17th century
• Hollingsworth: adult life expectancy of English aristocrats
increases since the 17th century
• No advantage for the rich (1500-1800), Clark and Cummins
3 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Data
• Built on Index Biobibliographicus Notorum Hominum (IBN)
Created to provide easy access to existing biographic books
• 2,800 biographical sources
biographic source
and more than 1
million people
• Our sample (300,000 people): All individuals born before 1880
with known lifespan between 15-100 years
number observations
• For each individual in the sample, we extract
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
example
year of birth (cohort)
lifespan
precision of the lifespan measurement
place of birth and death (migration, missing)
broadly defined occupation (multiple, missing)
broadly defined nationality and religion (missing)
cohort age at the time of publication of the source
4 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Variables
For each individual
• Cohort (decade dummies)
• Lifespan (between 15 to 100)
• Precision (0,1)
• Cities of birth and death (20/20 dummies)
• List of occupations (118)
• Nationality (37)
• Cohort age at source publication (9 decade dummies)
5 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Confidence intervals
• The variability of the cohorts’ mean life decreases
since the number of observations increases main observations
• Until 1640, the standard deviation of people lifespan is σ = 20
√
• For a sample size x, the s.d. of the mean lifespan is σ/ x
the 95% confidence interval is ±2(1) years for x = 400(1600)
• We update the cohort average lifespan using the adaptive rule
λt =


nt
x lt
+ 1−
nt
x
λt−1 nt < x
 l
t
otherwise
λ0 = 60.8 (from Clark for the Neolithic)
6 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Measurement errors
• The IBN provides information about the precision of the data
Years of birth and death may be followed by “?”, “c.” (circa),
double dates imprecise information
• Heaping
heaping
• Imprecise dates often finish in 0 or 5
• Heaping index: 5 × frequency of observations finishing 0/5
• The heaping index is an indicator of data quality
From very precise (1) to highly imprecise (5)
• Dating systems make heaping not useful before 800 AC
7 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Potential biases
• Notoriety Bias:
• Reputation is required to be in the database
overestimating survival at young ages notoriety bias
• Observed lifespan is conditional on a random age
• Control: occupation dummies
• Source Bias
• People alive at the time of publication are excluded
• Tends to underestimate the mean life
• Control: cohort age at source publication
• Composition Bias
• Fame was not always related to the same achievements
• Life expectancy may be different in different locations
• Control: city, occupation and, nationality dummies
8 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Estimation
• We have estimated the mean life of ten-years cohorts
controlling for
• Cities of birth and death cities
• Mean life is slightly smaller in large cities
• Mainly in the city of birth (left mode): migration bias
• Nationality nationalities
• Ocupation occupations
• Cohort age at source publication
source bias
• The conditional mean life behaves as the unconditional
estimation
9 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Conclusion
The mean life of famous people was stable around 60 years for 4
millennia and started to rise in the 17th century
It did one century earlier than that of ordinary people and well
before the Industrial Revolution
Why did longevity of famous people raise before? Does it matter
for growth?
Lucas (2009):
Knowledge is embodied in people, disrupting human lives impedes
knowledge transmission and hampers economic growth
10 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Open questions
• Why did longevity of famous people increase well before the
Industrial Revolution?
Nutrition, hygienic habits, medicine ?
• It preceded, but did it cause the Industrial Revolution?
• Why did longevity of ordinary people improve later?
11 / 32
2450-­‐2459 a.chr. 1500-­‐1509 a.chr. 840-­‐849 a.chr. 630-­‐639 a.chr. 560-­‐569 a.chr. 500-­‐509 a.chr. 440-­‐449 a.chr. 380-­‐389 a.chr. 320-­‐329 a.chr. 260-­‐269 a.chr. 200-­‐209 a.chr. 140-­‐149 a.chr. 80-­‐89 a.chr. 20-­‐29 a.chr. 30-­‐39 90-­‐99 150-­‐159 210-­‐219 270-­‐279 330-­‐339 390-­‐399 450-­‐459 510-­‐519 570-­‐579 630-­‐639 690-­‐699 750-­‐759 810-­‐819 870-­‐879 930-­‐939 990-­‐1001 1050-­‐1060 1110-­‐1120 1170-­‐1179 1230-­‐1239 1290-­‐1299 1350-­‐1359 1410-­‐1419 1470-­‐1479 1530-­‐1539 1590-­‐1599 1650-­‐1659 1710-­‐1719 1770-­‐1779 1830-­‐1839 Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Lifespan of Famous People
70 Lifespan of Famous People 68 66 64 62 60 58 back
12 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
England and Wales
Figure 2: Expected Age at Death, England and Wales
90
80
Age 65
70
Age 45
60
Age 10
50
40
Birth
Note: Data for 1751-1841 are from Wrigley and Schofield, 198, Table 7.15, p. 230; Data from 1841
on are from the Human Mortality Database.
17
51
17
61
17
71
17
81
17
91
18
01
18
11
18
21
18
31
18
41
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
30
back
13 / 32
2450-­‐2459 a.chr. 1500-­‐1509 a.chr. 840-­‐849 a.chr. 630-­‐639 a.chr. 560-­‐569 a.chr. 500-­‐509 a.chr. 440-­‐449 a.chr. 380-­‐389 a.chr. 320-­‐329 a.chr. 260-­‐269 a.chr. 200-­‐209 a.chr. 140-­‐149 a.chr. 80-­‐89 a.chr. 20-­‐29 a.chr. 30-­‐39 90-­‐99 150-­‐159 210-­‐219 270-­‐279 330-­‐339 390-­‐399 450-­‐459 510-­‐519 570-­‐579 630-­‐639 690-­‐699 750-­‐759 810-­‐819 870-­‐879 930-­‐939 990-­‐1001 1050-­‐1060 1110-­‐1120 1170-­‐1179 1230-­‐1239 1290-­‐1299 1350-­‐1359 1410-­‐1419 1470-­‐1479 1530-­‐1539 1590-­‐1599 1650-­‐1659 1710-­‐1719 1770-­‐1779 1830-­‐1839 Data and Facts
Conclusion
Restricted Sample Figures
Corrected Restricted Sample, x=400 Tables
lifespan of Famous People
Corrected Restricted Sample, x=1600 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 back
14 / 32
1000-­‐1009 1030-­‐1040 1060-­‐1069 1090-­‐1099 1120-­‐1129 1150-­‐1159 1180-­‐1189 1210-­‐1219 1240-­‐1249 1270-­‐1279 1300-­‐1309 1330-­‐1339 1360-­‐1369 1390-­‐1399 1420-­‐1429 1450-­‐1459 1480-­‐1489 1510-­‐1519 1540-­‐1549 1570-­‐1579 1600-­‐1609 1630-­‐1639 1660-­‐1669 1690-­‐1699 1720-­‐1729 1750-­‐1759 1780-­‐1789 1810-­‐1819 1840-­‐1849 1870-­‐1879 -­‐2450 -­‐412 -­‐214 -­‐65 78 214 336 439 531 625 715 797 867 938 998 1057 1114 1172 1228 1284 1340 1396 1452 1508 1564 1620 1676 1732 1788 1844 Data and Facts
back
Conclusion
Figures
Selected Sample Selected Sample Tables
Number of observations
Restricted Sample 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 100000 Restricted Sample 10000 1000 100 10 1 15 / 32
1000-­‐1009 1030-­‐1040 1060-­‐1069 1090-­‐1099 1120-­‐1129 1150-­‐1159 1180-­‐1189 1210-­‐1219 1240-­‐1249 1270-­‐1279 1300-­‐1309 1330-­‐1339 1360-­‐1369 1390-­‐1399 1420-­‐1429 1450-­‐1459 1480-­‐1489 1510-­‐1519 1540-­‐1549 1570-­‐1579 1600-­‐1609 1630-­‐1639 1660-­‐1669 1690-­‐1699 1720-­‐1729 1750-­‐1759 1780-­‐1789 1810-­‐1819 1840-­‐1849 1870-­‐1879 -­‐2450 -­‐412 -­‐214 -­‐65 78 214 336 439 531 625 715 797 867 938 998 1057 1114 1172 1228 1284 1340 1396 1452 1508 1564 1620 1676 1732 1788 1844 Data and Facts
back
Conclusion
Figures
Selected Sample Selected Sample Tables
Number of observations
Restricted Sample 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 100000 Restricted Sample 10000 1000 100 10 1 16 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Source bias
Selected Sample
Restricted Sample
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
back
17 / 32
2450-­‐2459 a.chr. 1500-­‐1509 a.chr. 840-­‐849 a.chr. 630-­‐639 a.chr. 560-­‐569 a.chr. 500-­‐509 a.chr. 440-­‐449 a.chr. 380-­‐389 a.chr. 320-­‐329 a.chr. 260-­‐269 a.chr. 200-­‐209 a.chr. 140-­‐149 a.chr. 80-­‐89 a.chr. 20-­‐29 a.chr. 30-­‐39 90-­‐99 150-­‐159 210-­‐219 270-­‐279 330-­‐339 390-­‐399 450-­‐459 510-­‐519 570-­‐579 630-­‐639 690-­‐699 750-­‐759 810-­‐819 870-­‐879 930-­‐939 990-­‐999 1050-­‐1059 1120-­‐1129 1180-­‐1189 1240-­‐1249 1300-­‐1309 1360-­‐1369 1420-­‐1429 1480-­‐1489 1540-­‐1549 1600-­‐1609 1660-­‐1669 1720-­‐1729 1780-­‐1789 1840-­‐1849 Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Frequency of Imprecision Tables
Data precision
1 Poly.(Frequency of Imprecision) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 back
18 / 32
1000-­‐1009 1030-­‐1040 1060-­‐1069 1090-­‐1099 1120-­‐1129 1150-­‐1159 1180-­‐1189 1210-­‐1219 1240-­‐1249 1270-­‐1279 1300-­‐1309 1330-­‐1339 1360-­‐1369 1390-­‐1399 1420-­‐1429 1450-­‐1459 1480-­‐1489 1510-­‐1519 1540-­‐1549 1570-­‐1579 1600-­‐1609 1630-­‐1639 1660-­‐1669 1690-­‐1699 1720-­‐1729 1750-­‐1759 1780-­‐1789 1810-­‐1819 1840-­‐1849 1870-­‐1879 Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
heaping birth date Tables
Heaping index
3.5 heaping death date 2.5 3 1.5 2 0.5 1 0 • The quality of information increases with time
• The year of birth is more imprecise than the year of death
back
19 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Distribution of biographic sources by first year of
publication
back
20 / 32
2450-­‐2459 a.chr. 1500-­‐1509 a.chr. 840-­‐849 a.chr. 630-­‐639 a.chr. 560-­‐569 a.chr. 500-­‐509 a.chr. 440-­‐449 a.chr. 380-­‐389 a.chr. 320-­‐329 a.chr. 260-­‐269 a.chr. 200-­‐209 a.chr. 140-­‐149 a.chr. 80-­‐89 a.chr. 20-­‐29 a.chr. 30-­‐39 90-­‐99 150-­‐159 210-­‐219 270-­‐279 330-­‐339 390-­‐399 450-­‐459 510-­‐519 570-­‐579 630-­‐639 690-­‐699 750-­‐759 810-­‐819 870-­‐879 930-­‐939 990-­‐1001 1050-­‐1060 1110-­‐1120 1170-­‐1179 1230-­‐1239 1290-­‐1299 1350-­‐1359 1410-­‐1419 1470-­‐1479 1530-­‐1539 1590-­‐1599 1650-­‐1659 1710-­‐1719 1770-­‐1779 1830-­‐1839 Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Lifespan of Famous People
70 Lifespan of Famous People 68 66 64 62 60 58 back
21 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Notoriety bias
back
22 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Source bias
0 -­‐2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -­‐4 -­‐6 -­‐8 -­‐10 -­‐12 -­‐14 -­‐16 Source bias depending on cohort age at source publication
back
23 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Estimated meanlife
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 -­‐700 -­‐200 300 Mean Life 800 1300 1800 Mean Life Filtered Constant + estimated cohort-dummy coefficients
back
24 / 32
Data and Facts
city = 80.3882824, - 1.4317790, .4534943, - 0.2309322, - 1.088444, - 1.0
.7235496, - 1.682422, - 2.132571, - 0.8954093, - 1.64046, - 0.0442995
- 0.3036039, - 1.543921, - 0.3597604, - 2.442929, - 1.1900890, .84902
.5024880, .35430190, .12294240, .5731883, - 0.18555130, .4224396,
.80144, - 0.3962067, - 0.46247020, .43997820, .85247540, .31971113,
- 2.107882, - 1.318748, - 0.0817021, - 1.868689, - 2.774638, - 0.92516
Histogram@city, 10D
Mean@cityD
Conclusion
In[35]:=
Figures
Tables
Main cities (20 × 20)
10
8
6
Out[36]=
4
2
-2
Out[37]=
-1
0
1
- 0.533983
Distribution of city dummies
back
25 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
In[30]:=
Figures
Tables
nation = 8- 0.2133012, 1.024613, 1.759651, - 2.47169, - 0.1989066,
- 0.3050118, 0.5821523, 0.7111519, - 4.134116, - 1.62748, 0.8869279,
- 1.154116, 0.0311445, - 1.720903, - 1.765707, 1.174486, - 3.571523,
- 3.672897, 0.9448678, 0.4074644, - 0.4216632, - 0.4207491, 0.23367,
0.8594567, - 0.3901542, - 2.428344, 1.244323, 0.7404026, - 2.845534,
- 0.2124552, 2.37788, - 3.778334, 3.249616, - 4.408692, - 2.75723,
4.597568, 1.683878<; Histogram@nation, 10D
Mean@nationD
Main nationalities (37)
10
8
6
Out[30]=
4
2
-4
Out[31]=
In[25]:=
-2
0
2
4
- 0.43215
Distribution
of nationality
dummies
occupation
= 81.682431,
1.773831,
0.8257442,back
- 0.5411697,
0.6782876, - 1.171939, 1.170017, 2.832072, 0.2790079, 1.006991, 0.99
1.927615, 0.6178452, 0.526325, - 0.1657045, - 0.5548475, 1.225274,
.4219364, 1.25008, 2.009381, 3.049587, 0.601103, 0.5487104, 0.44086
26 / 32
- 2.688893, 2.869375, - 10.90348, - 1.460708, - 2.320125, 6.117126,
5.254384,Conclusion
4.09587, - 0.0557356, - Figures
12.17146, - 12.00471, 2.535911,Tables
0.1138414, 0.2919225, 1.728856, 3.588554, 1.888405, 4.256101,
3.192545, 1.640226, 2.41906, 2.020887, 0.9078854, - 0.4282166,
1.177865, 4.625319, 4.56627, 3.654143, 0.0217916, 0.3942072,
- 0.8414289, 1.492602, - 2.186871, 1.279977, - 0.8354943, - 1.831389,
1.808107, - 3.901362, - 3.680321, - 0.5098769, - 0.9180393, 4.45575,
0.5798629, - 0.845173, 0.2215101, 1.712456, 3.987789<;
Histogram@occupation, 10D
Mean@occupationD
Data and Facts
Main occupations (180)
50
40
30
Out[26]=
20
10
-10
Out[27]=
-5
0
5
0.628711
Distribution of occupation dummies
notoriety bias
27 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Notoriety bias (dummies)
Religious
archdeacon
bishop
abbot
cardinal
rabbi
pastor
theologian
clergyman
priest
preacher
vicar
missionary
deacon
Military
6.85
4.46
2.37
2.34
2.11
1.43
1.23
1.13
0.68
-0.30
-0.74
-1.83
-4.10
admiral
marshal
general
aviator
colonel
commander
military
captain
lieutenant
soldier
corporal
sergent
6.12
5.25
4.76
4.10
2.87
-0.06
-1.46
-2.32
-2.69
-10.90
-12.00
-12.17
back
28 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Example of famous persons
Name
Vital dates
Place birth / death
Profession, nationality
Source
Name
Vital dates
Place birth / death
Profession, nationality
Source
hammurapi
1792-1750 (1728-1686)ante chr.
babylonischer knig aus der dynastie der amorer
Internationale Bibliographie der
Zeitschriftenlgiteratur aus allen Gebieten des Wissens.
einstein, albert
1879-1955
ulm (germany) - princeton (n.j.).
german physicist, professor and scientific writer,
nobel prize winner (1921), swiss and american citizen
Internationale Personalbibliographie 1800-1943.
back
29 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Biographic sources: Examples
• A Dictionary of Actors and of Other Persons Associated with
the Public Representation of Plays in England before 1642.
London: Humphrey Milford / Oxford, New Haven, New York
1929.
• A biographical dictionary of freethinkers of all ages and
nations. London: Progressive Publishing Company, 1889.
• Portraits of eminent mathematicians with brief biographical
sketches. New York: Scripta-Mathematica, 1936.
• Who was who in America. Historical volume (1607-1896). A
complement volume of Whos who in American history.
Chicago: The A. N. Marquis Company, 1963.
back
30 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Biographic sources
• Some examples of sources in English
example
• Most biographic sources were published for the first time in
the 19th and 20th centuries
publication year
• A source bias tends to underestimate life expectancy
People living long may be still alive when the source is published
The bias is large the close the cohort is to the source publication
• How important it may be?
• Exclude individuals born less than 100 years before the
publication of the source number observations
• No source bias until the 17th century, then slowly increasing,
reaching more than 2 years in 1870-9 source bias
back
31 / 32
Data and Facts
Conclusion
Figures
Tables
Why is it an important issue?
• Common view
• Malthusian times: Humanity spread worldwide, without
improving life expectancy
• Modern era: Life expectancy expands with income
• Our observation:
The mean life of famous (skilled) people increases well before the
Industrial Revolution
• Development: Acemoglu and Johnson (JPE, 2007) “There is no
evidence that the large exogenous increase in file expectancy led to
a significant increase in per capita economic growth”
back
32 / 32