Dallas Love Field
Impact Analysis Update
In the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
May 31, 2006
Dallas Love Field
Impact Analysis Update
In the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
and GRA, Inc.
May 31, 2006
Table of Contents - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................... vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................ ES-1
SECTION 1—FORECAST OF ACTIVITY ................................................................................................ 1-1
1.1
ENGAGEMENT ............................................................................................................................ 1-1
1.2
GROUND RULES FOR THE FORECAST .......................................................................................... 1-1
1.3
2001 MASTER PLAN FORECAST .................................................................................................. 1-2
1.4
CHANGES DUE TO REPEAL OF THE W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................................................. 1-3
1.5
RECENT FORECASTS.................................................................................................................. 1-6
1.5.1 SH&E: “POTENTIAL AIRPORT IMPACTS W ITH REPEAL OF W RIGHT AMENDMENT” ................. 1-6
1.5.2 ECLAT CONSULTING: “REPEALING THE W RIGHT AMENDMENT—RISKS FACING
SMALL COMMUNITIES AND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX”...................................... 1-6
1.5.3 CAMPBELL-HILL: “THE W RIGHT AMENDMENT CONSUMER PENALTY” ................................... 1-6
1.5.4 THE BOYD GROUP: “THE W RIGHT AMENDMENT DEBATE: NOW FOR SOME FACTS”.............. 1-6
1.6
GRA NEAR-TERM UNCONSTRAINED FORECAST ........................................................................... 1-11
1.7
GRA LONG-TERM FORECASTS ................................................................................................... 1-17
1.8
SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 1-24
SECTION 2—NOISE IMPACT ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 2-1
2.1
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 2-1
2.1.2 PURPOSE......................................................................................................................... 2-1
2.1.3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 2-1
2.2
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................. 2-2
2.2.1 INTEGRATED NOISE MODEL (INM) OVERVIEW .................................................................... 2-2
2.2.2 RUNWAY UTILIZATION ....................................................................................................... 2-2
2.2.3 FLIGHT TRACKS................................................................................................................ 2-4
2.2.4 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS .................................................................................................... 2-5
2.2.5 NOISE MODELING RESULTS............................................................................................... 2-8
2.2.5.1
MASTER PLAN 32 GATE VS. 19 GATE NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ........................... 2-13
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Table of Contents - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2.2.5.2
2.3
MASTER PLAN 32 GATE VS. 32 GATE NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ........................... 2-13
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 2-16
SECTION 3—TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS........................................................................................... 3-1
3.1
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 3-1
3.1.1 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 3-1
3.1.2 PURPOSE......................................................................................................................... 3-1
3.1.3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 3-1
3.2
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................. 3-1
3.3
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 3-11
SECTION 4—AIR QUALITY IMPACT ANALYSIS ................................................................................... 4-1
4.1
4.2
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 4-1
4.1.1
BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................ 4-1
4.1.2
PURPOSE ....................................................................................................................... 4-1
4.1.3
METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 4-1
4.1.4
DALLAS COUNTY AIR QUALITY STATUS ............................................................................ 4-2
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................. 4-4
4.2.1
EDMS OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................... 4-4
4.2.2
EDMS SETTINGS AND ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................. 4-5
4.2.3
AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS .................................................................................................. 4-5
4.2.4
GROUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT (GSE)............................................................................ 4-8
4.2.5
ON AIRPORT GROUND TRAFFIC ....................................................................................... 4-8
4.2.6
EDMS RESULTS ............................................................................................................ 4-8
4.2.6.1 MASTER PLAN VERSUS 20 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................... 4-8
4.2.6.2 MASTER PLAN VERSUS 32 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................... 4-9
4.2.6.3 20 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT VERSUS 32 GATE NO W RIGHT
AMENDMENT .................................................................................................... 4-10
4.3
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 4-11
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Table of Contents - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 5—ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ....................................................................................... 5-1
5.1
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................ 5-1
5.2
PROPERTY TAX CONTRIBUTION .................................................................................................. 5-4
5.3
SURVEY OF REAL ESTATE VALUES ............................................................................................. 5-6
LIST OF TABLES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TABLE ES-1
TABLE ES-2
TABLE ES-3
TABLE ES-4
15 LARGEST MARKETS FOR THE DALLAS/FORT W ORTH METROPLEX ............................. ES-3
SUMMARY OF LONG-TERM FORECASTS: 20 AND 32 GATE SCENARIOS ........................... ES-4
IMPACT SUMMARY TABLE .......................................................................................... ES-10
PROPERTY TAX CONTRIBUTION FROM RESIDENTIAL PARCELS WITHIN THE
DNL 55 DB NOISE CONTOUR .................................................................................... ES-12
TABLE ES-5 SURVEY OF REAL ESTATE DATA ................................................................................ ES-13
SECTION 1—FORECAST OF ACTIVITY
TABLE 1-1
TABLE 1-2
TABLE 1-3
TABLE 1-4
TABLE 1-5
TABLE 1-6
TABLE 1-7
TABLE 1-8
TABLE 1-9
TABLE 1-10
TABLE 1-11
TABLE 1-12
TABLE 1-13
TABLE 1-14
TABLE 1-15
TABLE 1-16
TWO SCENARIOS FOR FORECASTING .............................................................................. 1-1
FORECASTS OF UNCONSTRAINED AVIATION DEMAND: 2001 MASTER PLAN FOR DAL ........ 1-2
LARGEST MARKETS IN THE METROPLEX WITHOUT SERVICE AT DAL.................................. 1-5
CURRENT AND FORECAST SERVICE AT DAL WITH REPEAL OF THE W RIGHT
AMENDMENT ................................................................................................................. 1-7
ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS OF CHANGES IN WN OPERATIONS AT LOVE FIELD.................... 1-8
COMPARISON OF CURRENT OPERATIONS AND RECENT FORECASTS ................................. 1-9
SCENARIO A & B FEASIBILITY OF ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS WITH 20 & 32 GATES........... 1-10
EXAMPLE OF AIRLINE PROFIT OPPORTUNITY ................................................................. 1-12
NEAR-TERM EXISTING AND FORECAST MARKET ENTRY AT DALLAS LOVE FIELD .............. 1-13
GRA NEAR-TERM TIME OF DAY FORECAST FOR DAL (W EEKDAY) .................................. 1-14
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEW-TERM FORECAST......................................................... 1-15
APPLYING GATE CONSTRAINTS OF NEAR-TERM FORECASTS .......................................... 1-17
LONG-TERM FORECAST NON-STOP SERVICE AT DAL WITH 20 AND 32 GATES ................ 1-18
LONG-TERM FORECASTS – W EEKDAY FLIGHT PATTERNS............................................... 1-19
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 20 AND 32 GATE LONG-TERM FORECAST .............................. 1-21
COMPARISON OF LONG-TERM FORECASTS WITH FAA’S TERMINAL AREA FORECAST ....... 1-24
SECTION 2— NOISE IMPACT ANALYSIS
TABLE 2-1
TABLE 2-2
RUNWAY UTILIZATION (2001 MASTER PLAN) ................................................................... 2-3
MODELED AVERAGE ANNUAL DAY AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS .............................................. 2-7
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Table of Contents - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
TABLE 2-3
TABLE 2-4
TABLE 2-5
TABLE 2-6
NOISE IMPACTS FOR MASTER PLAN 32 GATES – INM 6.0 VS. INM 6.1............................... 2-8
NOISE IMPACTS FOR EACH SCENARIO ........................................................................... 2-13
SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 2-17
SCHOOLS WITHIN THE NOISE CONTOURS ..................................................................... 2-19
SECTION 3—TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
TABLE 3-1
DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECTED TRAFFIC RATIOS RELATIVE TO THE MASTER PLAN ............ 3-2
SECTION 4—AIR QUALITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
TABLE 4-1
TABLE 4-2
TABLE 4-3
TABLE 4-4
TABLE 4-5
TABLE 4-6
TABLE 4-7
TABLE 4-8
TABLE 4-9
DALLAS COUNTY AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR JULY 2005 ...................................................... 4-3
2006 BASELINE AIRPORT EMISSIONS (TONS/YEAR).......................................................... 4-4
ANNUAL LTO FOR 20 GATE AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS ......................................................... 4-6
ANNUAL LTO FOR 32 GATE AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS ......................................................... 4-7
RESULTS FOR NOX FOR 20 AND 32 GATES FOR ROADWAY AND PARKING ......................... 4-8
NOX AND HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FOR 20 GATES ...................................................... 4-9
CO, SOX, AND PM10 EMISSIONS FOR 20 GATES ............................................................ 4-9
NOX AND HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS FOR 32 GATES .................................................... 4-10
CO, SOX AND PM 10 EMISSIONS FOR 32 GATES........................................................... 4-10
SECTION 5— ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
TABLE 5-1
TABLE 5-2
TABLE 5-3
TABLE 5-4
TABLE 5-5
TABLE 5-6
DAL PRIMARY AIRPORT IMPACTS ................................................................................... 5-2
DAL PRIMARY NON-AIRPORT IMPACTS—2005 (VISITOR EXPENDITURES IN REGION)......... 5-3
FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR DAL PRIMARY AIRPORT AND NON-AIRPORT IMPACTS ................ 5-4
SUMMARY OF TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DAL—2005 AND ALL SCENARIOS................ 5-4
PROPERTY TAX CONTRIBUTION FOR RESIDENTIAL PARCELS WITHIN THE DNL 55 DB
NOISE CONTOUR ........................................................................................................... 5-5
SURVEY OF REAL ESTATE DATA ..................................................................................... 5-6
LIST OF FIGURES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
FIGURE ES-1 COMPARISON OF HOURLY W EEKDAY OPERATIONS IN THE 20 AND 32 GATE SCENARIO ... ES-5
SECTION 1—FORECAST OF ACTIVITY
FIGURE 1-1
FIGURE 1-2
FIGURE 1-3
ARRIVAL – DEPARTURE PATTERN: NEW-TERM FORECAST ............................................. 1-14
NEAR-TERM FORECAST ANNUAL ENPLANEMENTS AND COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS.......... 1-16
LONG TERM FORECASTS: W EEKDAY FLIGHT PATTERNS ................................................. 1-20
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Table of Contents - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
FIGURE 1-4
FIGURE 1-5
20 GATES LONG-TERM FORECAST – ANNUAL ENPLANEMENTS AND OPERATIONS ............ 1-22
32 GATES LONG-TERM FORECAST – ANNUAL ENPLANEMENTS AND OPERATIONS ............ 1-23
SECTION 2— NOISE IMPACT ANALYSIS
FIGURE 2-1
FIGURE 2-2
FIGURE 2-3
FIGURE 2-4
FIGURE 2-5
FIGURE 2-6
FIGURE 2-7
FIGURE 2-8
FIGURE 2-9
PRIMARY FLIGHT TRACKS (2001 MASTER PLAN) ............................................................. 2-4
PRIMARY AND DISPERSED FLIGHT TRACKS (2001 MASTER PLAN) .................................... 2-5
ORIGINAL 32 GATES WITH W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................................................. 2-9
32 GATES WITH W RIGHT AMENDMENT .......................................................................... 2-10
20 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................................................................. 2-11
32 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ............................................................................. 2-12
COMPARISON OF MASTER PLAN 32 GATES & 20 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT .......... 2-14
COMPARISON OF MASTER PLAN 32 GATES AND 32 GATES NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT ...... 2-15
COMPARISON OF DNL 65DB FOR EACH NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT SCENARIO .................. 2-18
SECTION 3—TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
FIGURE 3-1
FIGURE 3-2
FIGURE 3-3
FIGURE 3-4
FIGURE 3-5
FIGURE 3-6
FIGURE 3-7
2020 PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC FORECASTS 20 GATES .......................................................... 3-3
2020 PEAK HOUR TRAFFIC FORECASTS 32 GATES .......................................................... 3-4
2020 LEVELS OF SERVICE.............................................................................................. 3-5
DAL INTERSECTION DELAYS AND LOS—AM PEAK HOUR IN 2002 W ITH CITY 1999........... 3-7
PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS AND MASTER PLAN RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS
DAL INTERSECTION DELAYS AND LOS—PM PEAK HOUR IN 2002 W ITH CITY 1999........... 3-8
PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS AND MASTER PLAN RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS
DAL INTERSECTION DELAYS AND LOC—AM PEAK HOUR IN 2020 W ITH ONLY THE ........... 3-9
CITY 1999 PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS (EXCEPT LEMMON AT INWOOD)
DAL INTERSECTION DELAYS AND LOC—PM PEAK HOUR IN 2020 W ITH ONLY THE ......... 3-10
CITY 1999 PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS (EXCEPT LEMMON AT INWOOD)
SECTION 4—AIR QUALITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
FIGURE 4-1
FIGURE 4-2
EPA DESIGNATION OF OZONE NON-ATTAINMENT AREAS IN TEXAS ................................... 4-2
COMPARISON OF NOX FOR 20 AND 32 GATE NO W RIGHT AMENDMENT .......................... 4-11
SECTION 5— ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
FIGURE 5-1
REAL ESTATE SURVEY ................................................................................................... 5-7
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Preface - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Preface
The subject of this report is the impact of Dallas Love Field, specifically how it may
be expected to change in the absence of Wright Amendment control over the limits
of scheduled air carrier service. With few exceptions, airports exist as tradeoffs
between environmental and economic impacts. The degree to which airports are
able to balance these impacts is largely dependent on the policies and plans enacted
and approved by leaders of local government and the practices of individuals
charged with management of airport operator organizations. For both policy makers
and managers, the cooperation of a large third party comprised of airport tenants,
users and aircraft operators is usually essential to achieve a balance between
environmental and economic impact.
Dallas Love Field, operating in the shadow of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
for 32 years, had achieved an acceptable balance. While the efforts of airport
management deserve much credit, a major reason for this balance has been a
federal regulation known as the Wright Amendment. Under Wright Amendment
tenets familiar to all by now, there has been little need for policies and plans relating
to scheduled air carrier services or compatible off-airport land use and development.
Capital facilities development for increased capacity, level of service improvement,
or to meet governmental requirements have been minimal in volume and nature with
the exception of recent auto parking garage, passenger terminal curbside and
security additions and improvements. Adjusted residential property values have
risen over the years and continue to rise in support of the municipal tax base and
actual tax contributions from the communities and businesses surrounding Love
Field.
The balance was upset when in 1999 the startup of a new airline served as the
catalyst for sudden changes in the volume and characteristics of scheduled air
carrier services. To restore balance, albeit at a new level of off-airport impact, the
City of Dallas commissioned the preparation of a Love Field Master Plan / Airport
Impact Analysis. After many months of analysis and coordination with all interested
parties, including; airlines, other airport tenants and users, residents and home
owners, and local, regional and federal government, broad and strong consensus
was reached in favor of the Airport Master Plan published in March 2001 and
unanimously approved by the City Council.
However, the Master Plan and supporting Airport Impact Analysis were based on a
continuation of the Wright Amendment’s provisions at the time. Since publication,
the Wright Amendment has been modified to again upset the balance that had been
achieved between economic and environmental impact. Many of the parties that had
participated in forging consensus support for the new plan, and the City that had
unanimously approved it, became bystanders to an increasingly acrimonious debate
that began with a national campaign to repeal the Wright Amendment in its entirety.
Finally, members of the U.S. Congress encouraged a local solution be formed or it
would act to repeal the federal statute by the end of 2006.
In response, the Mayor and Council of Dallas have joined in mutual discussions with
the City of Fort Worth to explore potential solutions that would, once again, establish
an acceptable new balance for Love Field should the Wright Amendment be
repealed. This time, however, the Dallas initiative would attempt to gain regional
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Preface - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
support and would need effective measures to manage the growth of Love Field
consistent with the environmental impacts agreed to in the 2001 Master Plan.
This report describes the results of studies performed to determine how the impact of
Dallas Love Field would change in the following areas:
Q Aircraft noise;
Q Ground traffic in the airport vicinity;
Q Air quality; and
Q Economic activity.
With few exceptions, the individuals (planners, engineers/scientists and economists)
who were prominent in the development of the Airport Master Plan have been the
principal contributors to this impact update effort. This enabled the work to be
completed within the brief period ultimately determined by the federal mandate, and
assured an understanding of the master plan as the background for the performance
and documentation of this work.
The starting point for the impact analysis update was the completion of the analysis
of air service activity in absence of the Wright Amendment, performed by the firm of
GRA, Inc. GRA performed the market analysis of scheduled service opportunities
and profit potentials in much the same manner as would an airline itself, assuring the
study of an accurate and authoritative starting point.
The analyses of aircraft noise, ground traffic and air quality impacts were performed
as closely as possible to the methods and techniques used in the original Master
Plan / Airport Impact Analysis. Care was exercised to assure the results could be
fairly compared directly to the Master Plan results. Differences from master plan
techniques were adopted only in cases where better tools had become available and
even then the ability to make fair comparisons with the Master Plan was provided for.
Without exception, for the same number of aircraft gates as developed in the Master
Plan, the results of the environmental and community impact analyses describe
consistently greater impacts than had been agreed to by the Master Plan Advisory
Committee and approved by Council, as presented in direct comparison with the
master plan. However, when the number of aircraft gates is allowed to increase only
slightly above the existing number of passenger terminal gates, which is
considerably less in total number than the Master Plan, the impacts of aircraft noise,
ground traffic and air quality conform much more closely with the Master Plan.
As would be expected with the greater number of passengers and aircraft operations
capable of being generated by the Master Plan, economic impact is greater than
would be expected under a lesser number of gates which correspond to the levels of
environmental and community impact established in the Master Plan. The results of
the economic impact update, however, must be used with discretion. Because Love
Field operates in the shadow of D/FW International Airport, the extent to which
economic impact will accrue in the region and to Dallas due to increased aircraft
activity and passengers at Love Field may, in part, materialize as a reduction or a
slow down in the rate of economic generation at DFW. Previous studies have shown
the business and commerce community and citizens of Dallas receive some 70% of
the economic impact of DFW. Caution should also be used in interpreting the
economic impact results in that the generated economic activity does not accrue
entirely to the City of Dallas. Not all airport employees are citizens of Dallas, not all
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Preface - Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
businesses at the airport are Dallas owned, and not all purchases are made from
Dallas owned and staffed businesses. Studies far more time consuming and
detailed would be needed to isolate the economic impact of Love Field to the City of
Dallas exclusively, and such studies, out of necessity, would have to consider the
economic impact of the entire Metroplex system of airports and air transportation.
The future of Dallas Love Field, the level of air service it can provide for its business
community seeking the convenience of close-in airport access, and the degree to
which it will affect and shape the future of the residential communities surrounding it,
will be determined by the Mayor and Council on behalf of the citizens of Dallas. It
will surely have to pass the scrutiny of federal regulators seeking equal access to
airport facilities and competition among airlines. In the aftermath, the City will have
the challenge of managing the use and development of Love Field under a new
balance between environmental and economic impact, one that will be predictable,
not subject to the imposition of national interests above those of its citizens.
May 2006
viii
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Executive Summary
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Executive Summary
Introduction
Background - The Dallas Love Field Impact Analysis/Master Plan, published in early 2001,
was prepared in close coordination with and received the approval of a Master Plan Advisory
Committee consisting of airlines, other airport users and the citizens residing in communities in
the immediate vicinity of the airport. That report and this one are available at www.dallaslovefield.com. The plan was based on a projection of the characteristics and volume of
scheduled air carrier aircraft operations as permitted at the time under the 1979 Wright
Amendment. With the support of users and residents, the Master Plan established the levels of
aircraft noise, air quality and ground traffic congestion that could be expected under the Wright
Amendment air traffic projection.
The validity of the Master Plan is now in question owing to a national campaign organized to
repeal the Wright Amendment. The Congress has requested regional resolution of the issue
before it acts with new legislation as early as the end of 2006. The City of Dallas has
determined it will seek a regional solution acceptable to Congress that is consistent with the
goals and achievements of the Master Plan.
DMJM Aviation was engaged to prepare a technical study to update the air service projections
and impact analyses contained in the 2001 Airport Master Plan/Impact Analysis to reflect a “No
Wright Amendment” demand for scheduled air carrier services at Love Field.
Purpose - The purpose of this engagement was:
Q to develop future air service scenarios at Dallas Love Field that could realistically result if the
Wright Amendment is repealed;
Q to assess and compare the noise, air quality, traffic, and economic impacts of each air
service scenario to the 2001 Master Plan 32 Gate full build-out scenario that presumed the
Wright Amendment would remain in place.
Methodology - In this study update there are no market demands or operational restrictions
imposed on the characteristics and growth of scheduled air carrier operations other than the
number of gates available for use and a limit to domestic destinations.
The methodologies employed to conduct the technical analyses of noise, air quality, traffic, and
economic impacts were essentially the same as those which were used in the 2001 Master
Plan, updated to the latest versions of the tools, to ensure the most equitable comparison of
results.
Summary of Findings - The results of the analyses presented in this report indicate that the
overall impacts of operating 20 Gates under a No Wright Amendment scenario are the most
comparable to the environmental thresholds agreed to and established in the 2001 Master
Plan/Impact Analysis 32 Gate scenario with the Wright Amendment in place. Aircraft noise
exposure is slightly less for the DNL 65 dB level used by the FAA for noise mitigation actions.
Average traffic delays are within a second or two, per vehicle per intersection, of the Master
Plan results. Some air pollutants are greater than the Master Plan levels, but the pollutants that
contribute to ozone formation, which is the area of non-attainment for the region, are less.
The following provides a summary of the elements that have been assessed in this update
under a No Wright Amendment scenario and compared to the 2001 report.
ES-1
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Air Service Activity in Absence of Wright Amendment
The first task of this assignment was to develop a realistic, market-driven forecast of airline
activity at Dallas Love Field (DAL) if the Wright Amendment was repealed. GRA, Inc. was
tasked with developing two long-term operational scenarios, the first with 20 gates and the
second with 32 gates. For both scenarios, a flexible accommodation of carriers at gates was
assumed for a typical range of aircraft.
This air service analysis and demand forecast was prepared, in part, to update the existing
Master Plan forecast developed before the events of 9/11. In that earlier forecast, the Wright
Amendment was assumed to remain in place, allowing operations beyond the non-stop service
area only with reconfigured standard jet and regional jet aircraft up to 56 seats.
Other events in the airline industry have now eclipsed that forecast and the potential for the
repeal of the Wright Amendment would change the dynamics at the airport in the future. In the
year 2005, there were approximately 85,000 commercial operations at DAL resulting in the
enplanement of approximately three million passengers. Without the repeal of the Wright
Amendment, FAA expects relatively slow growth at DAL, with enplanements increasing only two
percent per year over the period 2006 through 2020. In that same period, FAA expects
commercial operations to grow only one percent per year. 1
The repeal of the Wright Amendment would change the potential profit opportunities of carriers
at DAL. Today, there are 30 markets not served on a non-stop basis from DAL that produce
300 or more passengers per day each way (PDEW) from/to the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.
While all of these markets receive non-stop service at DFW, some carriers may find service at
DAL to be financially attractive. The repeal of the Wright Amendment would make it possible for
carriers to fly to either coast and to any region for the first time with standard jet aircraft.
Because standard jets can produce commercial airline seat miles at much lower costs than the
aircraft of 56 seats or less that are currently allowed to fly beyond the Wright Amendment
defined area, it may be possible for carriers to mount profitable operations in many of these
large markets.
To examine these opportunities, a methodology was employed that is designed to replicate as
closely as possible the decision-making process of commercial airlines.
These items were performed in this new air service analysis and demand forecast:
Q Review of recent forecasts made by other firms.
Q Discussions with Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, DFW Airport, Dallas Love Field and
other airline network planners.
Q Examination of data on the catchment areas for the two major commercial service airports in
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.
Q Application of methodologies in GRA’s airline practice that examine profit opportunities for
carriers at DAL in the event of repeal of the Wright Amendment.
The methodology is discussed in greater detail in the main body of this report. Markets with the
following characteristics were the focus of this analysis:
Q Significant demand (defined as passengers per day each way) to/from the Metroplex.
Q Opportunities to stimulate demand because of the absence of low cost carriers in a non-stop
market to the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex today.
Q Opportunities to have a sustainable cost advantage or to be cost competitive in the market.
1
2006 FAA Terminal Area Forecast
ES-2
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Q Markets where a carrier would have a structural advantage either in Dallas or at the other
end of the flight segment.
Q Markets where a carrier would be unlikely to face direct non-stop competition.
The increased opportunity to connect traffic at DAL and at other airports due to lifting of the
through ticketing provision of the Wright Amendment was also considered.
In developing these forecasts, the gate and other facility capacities at DAL were taken into
account. Two scenarios were examined - 20 and 32 gates, which create different profit
opportunities for airlines because more gates can physically accommodate more traffic, if it
were profitable. It was assumed that point-to-point carriers could produce up to 10 to 11
departures and arrivals (turns) per gate per day at DAL, while hub-and-spoke carriers would
produce on average eight turns per day. The difference between the two types of carriers is
due primarily to their business models: hub carriers must time flights to match connecting hub
banks, whereas point-to-point carriers do not.
Table ES-1 summarizes the findings for the 15 largest markets in the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex. In the 32 gate scenario, the GRA forecast suggests in the long-term there would be
non-stop service in 14 of the 15 largest markets consisting of existing and new service. In
contrast, the 20 gate scenario shows non-stop service to 12 of the top 15 markets.
Looking at all service changes to all points, in the 32 Gate scenario, there would be new nonstop services to 36 cities not currently served from DAL. In the 20 gate scenario, there would
be new non-stop services to 16 cities. Obviously, the scenarios with fewer gates show new
services primarily concentrated in the largest markets.
Table ES-1: 15 Largest Markets for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex
Location
METROPLEX
PDEW
1
Houston (HOU)
2
Atlanta
3
New York - LaGuardia
4
Las Vegas
5
Chicago – O’Hare
6
Los Angeles
7
San Antonio
8
Denver
9
Orlando
10
Austin
11
Baltimore
12
Houston (IAH)
13
Newark
14
Boston
15
Phoenix
Existing Non-Stop Service Points
New Non-Stop Service Points
Total Number of Non-Stop Points
2006
Service
NEW SERVICES AT DAL
GRA 32
GRA 20
GATES
GATES
ü
1621
1453
1216
1213
1147
1116
1052
929
924
771
713
709
709
709
683
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
10
14
8
12
ü
ü
ü
ü
4
4
Summary of Long-Term Forecasts
Table ES-2 provides a summary of the long-term forecasts. The summary separately lists
annual enplanements and annual operations for each of the GRA forecasts (20 and 32 gates)
and compares them to the current FAA forecast for the year 2020. 2 In the 20 gate scenario,
2
2006 FAA Terminal Area Forecast
ES-3
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
both operations and enplanements are up approximately 42 percent relative to the FAA
forecast, and are double the FAA forecast in the 32 gate scenario.
Also shown in Table ES-2 is a comparison of the GRA forecast with existing operations at DAL
as published in the April 2006 edition of the Official Airline Guide. In the 20 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario, seats per day increase by 53 percent and weekday operations are 39
percent higher than in the April 2006 OAG. Average seats per operation are about 10 percent
higher than today. Average turns per gate are about a third more than today.
In the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario, seats per day increase by approximately 109
percent, while operations increase by 95 percent. Seats per operation are up by seven percent,
and the average operation has seven percent more seats than today. If the airport expanded to
32 gates, the GRA forecast suggests that, on average, airlines would turn their aircraft 9.1 times
per gate whereas today they turn them 7.9 times per existing gate per day.
Table ES-2: Summary of Long-Term Forecasts: 20 and 32 Gate Scenarios
2020 DAL
Annual Enplanements
Annual Operations
Total Seats – Weekday
Total Operations – Weekday
Average Seat Per Operation
Turns Per Gate
2020 DAL
Annual Enplanements
Annual Operations
Total Seats – Weekday
Total Operations – Weekday
Average Seat Per Operation
Turns Per Gate
GRA 20 Gates
FAA TAF
Percent Higher
6,155,406
135,947
40.2%
41.5%
53,876
416
129.5
10.4
4,391,123
96,102
April 2006 OAG
35,282
300
117.6
7.9
52.7%
38.7%
10.1%
31.7%
GRA 32 Gates
FAA TAF
Percent Higher
8,757,139
190,848
4,391,123
96,102
April 2006 OAG
35,282
300
117.6
4.7
99.4%
98.6%
73,576
584
126.0
9.1
108.5%
94.7%
7.1%
94.7%
Finally, Figure ES-1 shows the pattern of arrivals and departures in each scenario for a future
weekday. Obviously, an airport with 32 gates could and would accommodate significantly more
flying than the 20 gate airport.
ES-4
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure ES-1: Comparison of Hourly Weekday Operations in the 20 and 32 Gate Scenarios
2020 Departures and Arrivals by Hour with 20 Gates (Thursday)
50
40
30
10
20
14
12
14
13
15
13
16
15
13
10
11
12
19
12
2
10
18
12
0
0
0000
0
0100
0
0200
0
0300
0
0400
2
0
0500
0600
0700
15
0800
13
0900
14
1000
13
10
1100
1200
16
1300
12
1400
14
1500
14
1600
18
13
1700
10
1800
1900
8
2000
8
2100
4
1
2
0
2200
2300
5
4
0
2200
2300
-10
-20
-30
Departures
Arrivals
2020 Departures and Arrivals by Hour with 32 Gates (Thursday)
50
45
40
11
35
21
18
30
20
18
19
15
17
20
25
20
17
14
25
20
21
3
21
10
21
18
16
19
20
17
19
17
19
21
18
16
8
5
0
14
30
15
2
0
0000
0
0100
0
0200
0
0300
0
0400
9
9
1
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
Departures
ES-5
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
1
Arrivals
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Noise Impacts
To examine the aircraft noise impact of each gate scenario, a methodology was employed to
objectively evaluate only the impacts related to repeal of the Wright Amendment for comparison
against the impacts identified in the 2001 Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
The methodology is discussed in detail in Section 2 and includes the following items used in
modeling each of the gate scenarios:
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
FAA’s INM Version 6.1 and 2000 census database;
Annual and daily air carrier activity;
Aircraft fleet mix and schedule profiles;
Master Plan general aviation activity and aircraft mix;
Master Plan runway and flight track utilization.
Findings of Noise Analysis
The noise contours were processed using the most updated version of the FAA’s Integrated
Noise Model (INM), Version 6.1. The original 2001 Master Plan contours were processed using
the then current INM Version 6.0 and 1990 U.S. Census database. To maintain consistency,
the Master Plan contours were reprocessed in INM 6.1, along with new population data from the
2000 U.S. Census, to update the results using this enhanced version of the model. The results
slightly altered the previously reported impacts from the Master Plan Impact Analysis; however,
the results are in accordance with today’s standards for noise modeling and allow for a more
accurate and fair comparison with the two new gate scenarios.
The level of noise exposure for the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios decreases from
that estimated for the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario while the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
scenario increases the level of noise exposure. Table ES-3 on page ES-9 comparatively
summarizes the inputs and results of the modeling of each scenario.
Q The DNL 65 dB noise contour for the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is
approximately 4.3 percent smaller than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario and impacts
approximately 3,800 fewer people.
Q The DNL 65 dB noise contour for the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is
approximately 4 percent larger in area than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario and includes
approximately 4,350 additional people.
In each of the No Wright Amendment scenarios, the Master Plan 32 Gate regional jet fleet mix
has been replaced for the most part by standard air carrier jets. These aircraft are larger and
have a louder noise footprint than the CRJ, EMB135 and EMB145 aircraft. Furthermore, under
the air service analysis some of the standard jets are departing at heavier take off weights to
service more distant non-stop destinations than were possible under the Wright Amendment.
The updated INM calculations use 2000 census data versus the 1990 data adjusted for growth
that was used in the Master Plan. As a result, the population impact numbers are more current
than those presented in the Master Plan, and by updating the Master Plan contours, a more
accurate and fair comparison between the scenarios is made.
In terms of both the area of impact and the population estimated within each DNL noise contour,
the findings are clear:
Q Removal of the Wright Amendment restrictions, while increasing to 20 gates, will reduce
noise impacts from those projected in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
ES-6
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Q Increasing the number of gates to 32, without Wright Amendment restrictions, will increase
noise impacts from those projected in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
Traffic Impacts
This section provides an assessment of the roadway traffic impacts that could result from the 20
and 32 gate air service scenarios. The variations in impacts to the neighboring roadway system
have been evaluated, as represented by twelve selected nearby roadway intersections.
Airport related roadway traffic was estimated using the forecast air passenger activities,
combined with the non-airport traffic projections from the Master Plan, to generate total traffic
levels and to evaluate the Levels of Service (LOS) that would result at the selected
intersections. LOS is a standard traffic engineering methodology to evaluate the level of
congestion and delays associated with increasingly heavy traffic conditions, with a range from
light conditions (LOS ‘A’) to over-capacity conditions (LOS ‘F’).
To enable direct comparison to the 2001 Master Plan, the current analysis assumed the same
improvements at the selected intersections as defined in the Master Plan. These included the
improvements that had been planned by the City prior to the Master Plan and those
recommended in the Master Plan to help resolve remaining congestion concerns. Most of the
Master Plan recommended improvements were relatively minor, except for the grade separated
intersection at Mockingbird Lane and Cedar Springs Road.
A summary comparison of the assumptions and results is presented in Table ES-3 on page ES9. These results include both the delays that would be experienced as well as the number of
intersections with poorer LOS. While the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario would have
much higher air carrier activity, the 20 Gate scenario is about 11 percent heavier than the
Master Plan conditions (Wright Amendment 32 Gates). When the higher likely connecting
passenger ratio is considered, the number of originating and terminating passengers in the 20
Gate scenario are essentially the same as the Master Plan.
The results indicate that traffic impacts in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario would be
slightly worse than in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario. The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
scenario would be significantly worse with considerably greater congestion levels. PM delays
would be more than twice the AM levels and five major intersections would be at LOS ‘F’; even
with the recommended Master Plan improvements.
Air Quality Impacts
An updated air quality evaluation was expressly used to quantify the impacts for Dallas Love
Field under the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios and compare them to the
2001 Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
The air quality results produced for the original 2001 Master Plan Impact Analysis were modeled
using Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) Version 3.2. However, in order to maintain
consistency between all gate scenarios, the 2001 Master Plan input data was entered into an
updated EDMS Version 4.4 and reprocessed to update the results using this enhanced version
of the model. The reprocessing of this data slightly altered the results previously reported in the
Master Plan Impact Analysis; however, the results are in accordance with today’s standards for
air quality modeling and allow for a more accurate and fair comparison with the three new gate
scenarios.
The methodology used for this air quality evaluation followed very closely the methodology used
for the 2001 Master Plan. Annual emissions were calculated in metric tons for several
pollutants based upon the annual aircraft operations, operation of ground support equipment
ES-7
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
and aircraft auxiliary power units, and from vehicles driving or parking on the airport property.
All of the assumptions used in the 2001 air quality analysis were carried over into this analysis
including the previously used year 2010 vehicle fleet to provide a more direct comparison to the
analysis conducted for the Master Plan. Ground vehicles emissions were also calculated using
the Mobile 5a option to compare to the 2001 Master Plan analysis.
Table ES-3 on page ES-10 presents the results of the modeling effort for each of the future gate
scenarios in comparison to the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario which presumed the Wright
Amendment would be in place. In summary,
Q The 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario has less nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide
emissions than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario will have NOx emissions approximately 12
percent greater than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario emissions forecast.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment exceeds the Master Plan 32 Gate forecast of emissions
for pollutants for which Dallas County is in attainment: Hydrocarbons, CO, SOx, and PM10.
Q In addition, the Master Plan did not forecast emissions for VOC and PM2.5. In comparison,
the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario re-calculated with the new model, the VOC, PM10, and
PM2.5 each were greater under the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright scenarios.
Overall, the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario results are similar and have fewer
emissions than the 32 Gate Master Plan scenario for each of the pollutants calculated by the
EDMS model, whereas the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario has greater emissions than
the 32 Gate Master Plan scenario.
Economic Impacts
The methodology and approach used for assessing the economic impact resulting from the 20
and 32 gate air service scenarios is a general one, with the aim of providing an overview of the
airport’s economic activity and impact in the region. Several sources of data went into the
assessment, including the economic impact analysis developed for the 2001 Master
Plan/Impact Analysis, recent data on airport activity and tenants, the GRA forecasts for DAL
activity in the absence of the Wright Amendment, and regional economic data from the U.S.
Department of Commerce Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS-II).
The assessment finds that DAL is responsible for an economic impact in 2005 of approximately
$4.3 billion in the City of Dallas and the metropolitan statistical area that includes the city. For
the future gate scenario years, economic impact levels are estimated (in 2005 dollars) by
scaling economic activity to the growth forecasts for the aviation activities that drive the airport’s
economic activity. Table ES-3 provides a comparative summary of the results of the
assessment for each of the scenarios.
Property Tax Contribution
An updated evaluation was completed to estimate the total property tax contribution from Dallas
residential property owners residing within the 55+ DNL noise contours for all gate scenarios
generated for this update. The estimated property tax contribution totals by contour level were
derived using GIS information obtained from the City of Dallas Public Works and Transportation,
GIS Division and the Dallas Central Appraisal District for Tax Year 2005. The new data allowed
for updating the results of the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario to reflect 2005 property tax
contribution. Compared to the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario, the 20 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario results in the following: as follows:
ES-8
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Q There are approximately 11,768 residential parcels located within the DNL 55 dB or greater noise
contour in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario (20 Gate NWA), and approximately 16,910 in
the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment (32 Gate NWA) , while the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario (MP 32
Gate) contains approximately 10,945.
Q The estimated market value of the above properties is approximately $2.79 billion (20 Gate NWA),
$2.97 billion (32 Gate NWA), and $2.76 billion (MP 32 Gate).
Q The taxable value of all residential properties within the DNL 55 dB or greater noise contour is
approximately $2.17 billion (20 Gate NWA), $2.32 billion (32 Gate NWA), and $2.16 billion (MP 32 Gate).
Q The estimated property tax contribution is approximately:
§
§
§
DNL 55 – 60 dB property tax contribution - $33,577,927 (20 Gate NWA), $35,375,572 (32 Gate
NWA), and $33,104,323 (MP 32 Gate)
DNL 60 – 65 dB property tax contribution - $14,274,677 (20 Gate NWA), $15,175,353 (32 Gate
NWA), and $14,087,637 (MP 32 Gate)
DNL 65 – 70 dB property tax contribution - $2,207,810 (20 Gate NWA), $2,674,524 (32 Gate
NWA), and $2,373,978 (MP 32 Gate)
Q The total estimated property tax contribution from those residing within the Love Field noise contours
- $50.2 million (20 Gate NWA), $53.4 million (32 Gate NWA), and $49.7 million (MP 32 Gate).
A summary of the tax contribution for each of the gate scenario’s is presented in Table ES-4.
Survey of Real Estate Values
A survey of real estate values for the areas surrounding Love Field was compiled and presented
in the 2001 Master Plan/Impact Analysis for the years 1997 – 2000. This survey data has been
researched from current sources and updated for the years 2001 – 2005 and is presented in
Table ES-5. It should be noted that the data available for this update differed from that available
at the time of the 2001 Master Plan in that it is for single family homes only. This, it should not
be compared to the Master Plan in terms of numeric values, but it is an updated indicator of the
continued positive growth in property values over the past 5 years.
ES-9
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table ES-3: Impact Summary Table
Noise Impact Analysis
Wright Amendment
Description
No Wright Amendment
32 Gates
20 Gates
32 Gates
INM 6.0/1990 U.S. Census
INM 6.1/2000 U.S. Census
INM 6.1/2000 U.S. Census
Air Carrier Activity (annual ops)
182,804
182,804
135,947
Air Carrier Activity (daily ops)
501
501
373
Fleet Mix/Schedule Profile
Q Standard Jets (7 States)
Q Reconfigured Jets (56 Seats)
Q Regional Jets (50 Seats)
Q Standard Jets (7 States)
Q Reconfigured Jets (56 Seats)
Q Regional Jets (50 Seats)
190,848
523
Q Standard Jets
Q Longer Haul Routes
Q Standard Jets
Q Longer Haul Routes
GA Activity & Fleet Mix*
Master Plan Forecast
Master Plan Forecast
Master Plan Forecast
Master Plan Forecast
Runway Use/Flight Tracks*
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Noise Impact: DNL 65 dB Area
4.8 Sq. Miles
4.6 Sq. Miles
4.4 sq. Miles
4.8 Sq. Miles
Impact by Contour
Square Miles
Population
Square Miles
Population
Square Miles
Population
Square Miles
Population
DNL 55 dB +
22.3
95,533
23.2
111,395
23.8
111,759
26.9
117,369
DNL 60 dB +
10.4
60,802
10.3
71,355
10.4
70,429
11.6
76,451
DNL 65 dB +
4.8
23,198
4.6
24,872
4.4
21,045
4.8
29,219
DNL 70 dB +
2.2
860
1.9
2,686
1.8
2,620
2
2,655
DNL 75 dB +
0.9
0
0.9
0
0.8
0
0.9
0
NOTE: The impacts for each contour include the entire area for that contour level. For example, the DNL 55 dB and above impacts includes the impacts for the DNL 60, 65, 70 and 75 dB and above contour.
Roadway Traffic Impact Analysis
Wright Amendment
Description
Air Carrier Activity (annual
enplanements - 2020)
Connecting Passenger Ratio
2020 Originating Passengers
Intersection Improvements
12 Intersections Analyzed
Average Delay (sec.) per Vehicle per
Intersection
Number of Intersections by LOS
No Wright Amendment
32 Gates
20 Gates
32 Gates
5.54 Million
6.16 Million
8.76 Million
19 percent
25 percent
25 percent
4.49 Million
4.62 Million
6.57 Million
Same
Same
Same
Same
Q
City 1999 Plans
Q
Master Plan recommendations
Q
Eight along Mockingbird
Q
Five along Lemmon (including the one at Mockingbird)
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
23
39
24
41
30
74
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
LOS C or Better
11
6
11
6
9
4
LOS D or Better
12
11
12
10
11
7
LOS E
0
0
0
1
1
0
LOS F
0
1
0
1
0
5
ES-10
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Air Quality Analysis
Wright Amendment
Description
No Wright Amendment
32 Gates
Pollutant
Nitrous Oxides (Nox)
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Carbon Monoxides (CO)
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Hydrocarbons
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
VOC
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
SOx
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
PM10
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
PM2.5
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
20 Gates
32 Gates
EDMS 3.22
EDMS 4.4
EDMS 4.4
614.1
511.5
502.6
687.6
542.6
35.5
36
462.3
13.2
36
452.9
13.9
35.8
617.9
18
51.7
1,226
1,809
1,684
1,982
695
154
376
1,293
211
305
1,194
179
311
1,285
248
449
123.2
106.2
141.3
162.9
76.1
6.3
40.8
69.9
8.3
28
106.4
7.3
27.6
113
10
39.9
N/A
107.7
145.4
167
N/A
N/A
N/A
73.8
7.9
26
112.3
6.9
26.2
119.7
9.5
37.8
30.1
45.2
38.1
51.3
27.3
0.8
1.9
42.2
2.7
0.3
35.1
2.7
0.3
47.6
3.3
0.4
3.05
8.2
9.43
12.39
0
1.5
1.55
5.8
1.2
1.2
6.91
1.25
1.27
9.09
1.46
1.84
N/A
7.8
8.92
11.65
N/A
N/A
N/A
5.8
1.2
0.8
6.91
1.21
0.8
9.09
1.41
1.15
Economic Impact Analysis
Wright Amendment
No Wright Amendment
20 Gates
Type of Economic Impact
Primary Airport Direct impacts
32 Gates
2005
2020
2020
$1,533.00
$1,846.70
$2,627.30
$1,610.90
$563.90
$1,145.50
$1,734.50
$2,089.40
$2,972.50
Primary Non-Airport Induced Impacts
$502.30
$1,020.30
$1,434.80
TOTAL Regional Economic Impact
$4,333.70
$6,101.90
$8,645.40
Primary Non-Airport Impacts (Visitors)
Primary Airport Inducted Impacts
(Dollar amounts in Millions)
ES-11
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table ES-4: Property Tax Contribution from Residential Parcels within the DNL 55 dB Noise Contour
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
Master Plan 32 Gate (updated for INM 6.1)
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,150
$1,839,129,070 1.8%
3,514
$782,646,490 1.8%
1,181
$131,887,680 1.8%
100
$7,416,020 1.8%
10,945
$2,761,079,260 1.8%
20 Gate No Wright Amendment Scenario
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,093
$1,849,051,690 1.8%
3,513
$793,037,600 1.8%
1,111
$122,656,130 1.8%
67
$4,935,530 1.8%
10,784
$2,786,069,630 1.8%
32 Gate No Wright Amendment Scenario
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,770
$1,965,309,540 1.8%
3,753
$843,075,150 1.8%
1,260
$148,584,660 1.8%
137
$9,916,840 1.8%
11,920
$2,966,886,190 1.8%
ES-12
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$33,104,323
$14,087,637
$2,373,978
$133,488
$49,699,427
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$33,282,930
$14,274,677
$2,207,810
$88,840
$50,149,253
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$35,375,572
$15,175,353
$2,674,524
$178,503
$53,403,951
5/31/2006
Executive Summary at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table ES-5: Survey of Real Estate Data
Location
Total
Sales
Average
Sales Price
Low
High
Days on
Market
AREA 1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
405
432
410
379
406
0%
$
$
$
$
$
237,877
246,412
265,915
277,722
241,153
1%
$
$
$
$
$
32,000
26,000
68,500
50,000
30,000
-6%
$
$
$
$
$
895,000
860,000
1,800,000
535,000
380,000
-58%
58
60
60
67
59
2%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
11
10
8
23
20
82%
$
$
$
$
$
679,273
360,175
576,500
570,452
709,438
4%
$
$
$
$
$
79,900
90,750
55,000
128,000
138,000
73%
$
$
$
$
$
2,450,000
950,000
1,845,000
1,750,000
2,800,000
14%
75
47
113
93
99
32%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
15
15
10
18
28
87%
$
$
$
$
$
69,170
70,323
85,783
95,494
96,125
39%
$
$
$
$
$
26,650
27,000
39,900
48,000
43,000
61%
$
$
$
$
$
106,000
99,900
138,000
135,000
135,000
27%
70
81
38
71
60
-14%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
45
36
51
55
56
24%
$
$
$
$
$
222,486
202,416
221,075
225,151
268,633
21%
$
$
$
$
$
55,000
45,000
63,750
72,500
64,900
18%
$
$
$
$
$
519,000
635,617
541,000
685,000
680,000
31%
72
60
83
83
56
-22%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
776
836
850
947
880
13%
$
$
$
$
$
668,857
692,915
732,980
623,298
836,550
25%
$
$
$
$
$
49,000
51,000
51,400
53,000
33,500
-32%
$
$
$
$
$
7,500,000
4,500,000
9,250,000
7,995,000
3,349,500
-55%
77
78
83
69
58
-25%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
519
499
496
509
560
8%
$
$
$
$
$
164,353
177,442
185,649
196,392
206,456
26%
$
$
$
$
$
40,000
27,500
50,447
30,000
22,500
-44%
$
$
$
$
$
571,428
529,000
535,000
1,175,000
730,000
28%
51
53
67
75
62
22%
AREA 2
AREA 3
AREA 4
AREA 5
AREA 6
Source: Lynell Jones , using North Texas Real Estate Info. Systems, Inc., 5/25/06
Property type: Single family homes only.
Status: Homes Sold
Areas are keyed to the map presented in Figure 5-1
ES-13
5/31/2006
Section 1
Forecast of Activity
Prepared by:
GRA, Inc.
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 1—FORECAST OF ACTIVITY
1.1
Engagement
GRA, as a subcontractor to DMJM Aviation, has been asked by the City of Dallas to assess the
air service characteristics of additional activity at Dallas Love Field that may result from the
repeal of the Wright Amendment.
This assessment was deemed necessary to provide an accurate and authoritative basis for the
analysis of noise, ground traffic, air quality and economic impacts that would follow. Federal
legislation was enacted in 1979 (and amended twice) that restricts fares, ticketing and non-stop
commercial service by standard jets to, from and through Dallas Love Field to cities within the
states of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri
and Texas. Single tickets involving Love Field can only include connections at airports within
the specified states. Aircraft with fewer than 56 seats may provide service to points outside of
the Wright Amendment defined service area. Because there are many markets that cannot be
served with standard jet aircraft, there may be opportunities for substantial increases in
commercial operations at Love Field if the Wright Amendment were repealed.
GRA’s role in the engagement was to provide a forecast of annual enplanements, operations,
fleet mix, distribution of flight distances, and a time of day distribution of arrivals and departures
assuming that the Wright Amendment was repealed. Two forecasts were created for 2020, one
constrained by 20 gates and the other by 32 gates.
1.2
Ground Rules for the Forecast
In developing the forecast, GRA was instructed to assume that DAL’s facility capacities would
be balanced to handle additional operations assuming gate capacities of 20 and 32 gates. The
definitions of the gates, the capacity to handle specific aircraft types, and the assumed use
agreements that would pertain to gate usage are summarized in Table 1-1.
Table 1-1: Two Scenarios for Forecasting
Gates
AA
CO
WN
Lemon Avenue
North Concourse
Total Gates
Use Agreement
Preferential
Preferential
Preferential
Common
Common
Number of Gates
A
B
3
2
15
20
3
2
14
6
7
32
Maximum Future
Gauge
B787
B787
B737-800
B737-800/A320-200
B787
In Scenario A, the current gate complement (totaling 19) would remain in place with one
additional gate built to increase the Southwest complement from 14 to 15 gates. American,
Continental and Southwest are assumed to have preferential rights to their gates, but it is
assumed that any other remaining gate time would be made available to other carriers.
In Scenario B, the six existing gates on Lemmon Avenue (originally built for defunct Legend
Airlines) would be put back into operation and modified to accommodate larger aircraft up to
B737-800 or A320-200 aircraft. These gates would be made available to air carriers on a
common use basis, with the Department of Aviation assuming control and distributing access
among competing carriers. In addition, seven additional gates on the North Concourse would be
made available. These seven gates would also be under the control of airport management and
made available to carriers on a common use base. These gates would be capable of
1-1
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
accommodating up to B787 aircraft. The additional Southwest gate is excluded from this
scenario. (Note: As the demand for gates increases in future years, such that all users cannot
be satisfied, the Department of Aviation should consider the development of economic policy
and procedures for the equitable allocation of gates to service airline schedules in a manner as
to maximize the economic return on gates as assets of the City.) In the GRA forecast, it was
also assumed that the American and Continental gates in the Central Terminal building could be
modified to accommodate up to B787 aircraft.
1.3
2001 Master Plan Forecast
In 2001, GRA, under subcontract to DMJM Aviation, developed a future forecast for DAL’s
Master Plan. The need for a specialized forecast was occasioned by two important
developments at that time:
Q A U.S. DOT order (upheld in the U.S. Court of Appeals, Fifth Circuit on February 1, 2000)
that permitted the use of standard jet operations to any point from DAL so long as no more
than 56 seats were onboard the aircraft.1
Q The emergence and rapid adoption of 50-seat regional jets by hub and spoke carriers and
their potential application at DAL.
By the time the forecast was undertaken, Legend Airlines (a new entrant) and American Airlines
had both commenced service with standard jets featuring 56 seats with a first class
configuration from DAL. Delta and Continental Airlines had begun service to their hubs using
50-seat jets. The forecast reflected the potential consequences for DAL if these new services
became economically viable. Table 1-2 summarizes the unconstrained 2001 Master Plan
forecast. With the 32 Gate configuration that resulted from the Master Plan, the total air carrier
operations were constrained to a 2020 level of 182,804 operations, and the 2020 enplanements
were constrained to 5,540,038 passengers.
Table 1-2: Forecasts of Unconstrained Aviation Demand: 2001 Master Plan for DAL
Year
1999
2002
2005
2010
2015
2020
93,704
96,720
96,720
100,048
102,752
105,456
10,602
3,700
4,000
4,400
4,800
5,200
0
23,544
32,700
45,126
61,476
75,868
2,980
22,890
35,970
55,590
78,480
101,370
107,286
146,854
169,390
205,164
247,508
287,894
Percent
2020/1999
12.5%
-51.0%
NM
3,301.7%
168.3%
Year
1
Air Carrier Operations by Market Segment: 1999-2020
Other
Reconfigured
Total
Southwest
RJ 50
Large
56 Seat
Air Carrier
Air Carrier Passengers by Market Segment: 1999-2020
Large Aircraft
Hub
Non-Network
Total
(Unrestricted)
Markets
Markets
Air Carrier
1999
2002
2005
2010
2015
2020
3,384,587
3,533,471
3,682,355
3,930,496
4,178,787
4,443,304
83,220
467,185
606,618
821,718
1,080,604
1,328,863
0
333,278
573,035
902,912
1,313,559
1,699,125
3,467,807
4,333,934
4,862,008
5,655,127
6,572,950
7,471,291
Percent
2020/1999
31.3%
1,496.8%
NM
115.4%
U.S. DOT: Order in Love Field Service Interpretation Proceeding (Docket OST-98-4363, December 22, 1998).
1-2
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
The operations for Southwest Airlines reflected the FAA 2001 TAF forecast for the airport. The
rationale for the slow growth scenario was that without changes to the Wright Amendment there
would be limited additional service by Southwest Airlines. The decline in other large aircraft
operations reflected a then recent service change by American Airlines to Austin.
The larger changes in activity and enplanements were due to 56-seat standard jet and 50-seat
RJ’s. The operations by reconfigured 56-seat aircraft reflected the then recent inauguration of
service by Legend and American Airlines using standard jets in a first class configuration. The
still larger increase in operations by RJ-50’s was due in part to the large order books for these
aircraft that hub carriers had at the time and the potential strategic advantage such carriers
would have by serving two points in Dallas from their own hubs.
In the original forecast, concern was expressed about the long-term viability of the 56-seat first
class service from DAL. As it turned out, there was insufficient demand to support such
services, at least at that time, and they were soon discontinued.
Regional jet operations also proved to be unsuccessful at DAL. Services by Delta, American
and Continental were subsequently pulled. With respect to these services, it is hard to
unbundle the airlines’ economic problems from the events of 9/11. There was both an
immediate and longer-term consequence of 9/11 that made the regional jet service with 50-seat
aircraft at DAL less attractive. Immediately after 9/11, there was a substantial drop off in traffic
throughout the U.S. New and unproven services such as the RJ’s at DAL were early victims of
such cutbacks. The hub and spoke carriers were particularly hard hit and remain financially
fragile to this day. In such circumstances, it was difficult for these carriers to justify a large
investment to maintain a second and often redundant set of services in the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex.
The longer-term impact of 9/11 on RJ’s was the change in pilot scope clauses, which rendered
the 50-seat regional jet less attractive across the board. Before 9/11, most large carriers had
labor contracts with their pilots, which prohibited regional subsidiaries or code-share partners
from operating jet aircraft in excess of 50 seats. One could argue that the 50-seat regional jet
was designed primarily to provide U.S. hub and spoke carriers with an expansion opportunity
using lower cost labor. After 9/11, most scope clause restrictions were substantially eliminated
for regional jets, so that today carriers can operate regional aircraft up to 90 or 100 seats with
much greater flexibility using separate pilot pools.
As a consequence, hub and spoke carriers have reduced their reliance on 50-seat aircraft, and
their subsidiaries and regional partners have been busy acquiring larger regional jets—70 and
90/100 seat airplanes. Because these larger regional jets have substantially lower costs per
available seat mile, they are more attractive in the hypercompetitive airline industry of today.
1.4
Changes Due to Repeal of the Wright Amendment
In the present engagement, GRA was instructed to assume that the Wright Amendment has
been repealed and that sufficient time has elapsed to modify facilities and otherwise make the
airport ready to accept additional traffic.
The important potential changes in air service at DAL are due to the following:
Q In the absence of the Wright Amendment, carriers would be free to add service beyond the
prescribed service area using standard jet aircraft. Because there are many large markets
currently not served by DAL, there is a potential for added service.
Q Motivations of individual carriers may vary widely. Southwest Airlines has indicated publicly
that it would significantly increase its operations at DAL, which is its home base and focus
city. Absent the restrictions in the Wright Amendment, Southwest could be expected to add
1-3
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
service to major cities and to provide connection opportunities at DAL (although its primary
orientation would remain as a point-to-point carrier), as well as from DAL through existing
hub and focus cities such as Chicago Midway, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Nashville, etc.
Q American Airlines has made public its intentions to substantially increase its operations at
DAL if the Wright Amendment were repealed, with the primary focus being to match
Southwest and other airlines’ increase in service in order to preserve its position in the local
Dallas market. One of American’s primary concerns is that many of its frequent flyers live or
work closer to DAL than they do to DFW, and DAL’s closer proximity to major hotels for
inbound traffic, might cause AA to lose passengers to new service provided by Southwest or
other carriers at DAL.
Q Other carriers may be motivated to either add service at DAL to their hubs, or to change
their service to the Metroplex from DFW to DAL, or both.
With the exception of Southwest Airlines, all other carriers may consider use of the latest
generation of RJ aircraft with up to 100 seats. Seat-mile costs of these aircraft are substantially
lower than those of their 50-seat predecessors. All carriers would take account of the increased
opportunity to build connections both at DAL and at their own hubs and focus cities if the Wright
Amendment were repealed.
To give some dimension to the opportunity, Table 1-3, which is based on DOT statistics from
the ticket sample, summarizes opportunities by potential market sizes (for the entire Metroplex
including DFW and DAL) for cities (and airports) currently not served from DAL on a non-stop
basis. There are 62 cities with at least 100 passengers per day each way not currently served
from DAL. A majority of the passengers in these markets currently fly on American Airlines to
DFW. Southwest is the second ranked carrier despite not providing any non-stop service to the
cities shown.
1-4
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-3: Largest Markets in the Metroplex without Service to DAL
USDOT Db1b YE 3Q 2005 and OAG April 2005
Airport
ATL
LGA
LAS
ORD
LAX
DEN
MCO
BWI
IAH
EWR
BOS
PHX
MSP
PHL
DCA
SFO
SEA
SNA
MDW
TPA
DTW
FLL
SAN
SJC
RDU
MIA
IAD
CLT
SLC
BNA
IND
ONT
PIT
MKE
LGB
SMF
PDX
BUR
CMH
OAK
CRP
CVG
JFK
JAX
HRL
CLE
MEM
BDL
BHM
HNL
RIC
OMA
DAY
TUS
RNO
COS
PBI
SDF
ORF
SJU
RSW
BTR
MFE
Grand Total
Share
All
1,453
1,216
1,213
1,147
1,116
929
924
713
709
709
709
683
676
618
609
535
535
525
521
476
455
448
439
360
356
354
331
331
311
304
292
283
271
256
255
255
249
241
222
217
214
211
210
207
203
194
187
184
168
163
154
152
145
145
138
134
131
129
124
114
111
106
100
33,968
100%
AA
554
873
627
820
653
441
615
526
212
350
518
362
273
348
451
325
324
412
187
374
242
345
297
261
281
319
257
174
114
244
213
187
158
77
241
154
128
206
165
144
65
77
178
136
94
123
131
115
109
121
124
105
114
93
124
82
99
89
97
79
83
91
17,976
53%
CO
Passengers Per Day Each Way
DL
F9
FL
HP
NW
677
191
66
151
345
64
142
SY
TZ
US
122
WN
YX
0
26
280
83
243
66
203
103
UA
14
147
110
14
11
98
0
0
48
388
242
56
189
276
97
155
79
4
0
94
56
6
1
12
9
3
8
13
4
3
297
166
64
108
118
72
6
20
1
3
0
154
4
3
3
2
9
141
124
3
197
2
66
1
25
0
1
6
3
0
2
1
695
2%
1,210
4%
203
1%
740
2%
1-5
719
2%
442
1%
97
0%
419
1%
700
2%
413
1%
6,436
19%
154
0%
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
1.5
Recent Forecasts
Within the last 11 months, other consultants have developed four forecasts regarding the
consequences for air services at DAL in the event the Wright Amendment is repealed. The
following is a brief summary of those four studies.
1.5.1
SH&E: “Potential Airport Impacts With Repeal of Wright Amendment”
Sponsored by DFW Airport, the SH&E study projected that with the repeal of the Wright
Amendment, Southwest would add long-haul flying at their existing gate complexes and be
matched substantially at DAL by American Airlines. Other carriers would transfer flying from
DFW to DAL. As a consequence, there would be a substantial pull down in operations at DFW
and loss of services to smaller communities. SH&E forecasts that between 276 and 362
operations per day would be added to DAL if the Wright Amendment was repealed. As a
consequence, 16 million passengers (8 million enplanements) would be added to the 6.4 million
already at DAL. The result, projected by SH&E, was gridlock at DAL, and a substantial
reduction in service at DFW.
1.5.2
Eclat Consulting:
“Repealing the Wright Amendment—Risks Facing Small
Communities and the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex”
On behalf of American Airlines, Eclat Consulting examined the consequences of the repeal of
the Wright Amendment. Eclat projected that 251 additional daily operations would occur at DAL
and that DFW would lose 279 operations. Eclat provided details on service changes and
projected 93 additional flights by Southwest, 90 additional flights by American, and 67 additional
flights by other airlines at DAL. Virtually all of the service losses at DFW would be pull downs
by American Airlines because of a splintering of its DFW hub with DAL.
1.5.3
Campbell-Hill: “The Wright Amendment Consumer Penalty”
Sponsored by Southwest Airlines, the Campbell-Hill study assumed that Southwest would add
service to 15 large markets with three daily roundtrips each. It projected that the new service
would attract 3.7 million one-way passengers annually to and from the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex and that there would be a substantial compression in fares in the Dallas area.
Campbell-Hill did not project any reaction by American Airlines at DAL.
1.5.4
The Boyd Group: “The Wright Amendment Debate: Now for Some Facts”
Produced independently, The Boyd Group projected that Southwest would add 66 daily flights to
major markets as a result of the repeal of the Wright Amendment. It projected that American
would not respond by adding flights at DAL, nor would other carriers.
To gain a better perspective on these alternative forecasts, Table 1-4 provides a comparison of
the service changes projected in each. Unfortunately, the SH&E report that was made available
for this study does not provide details on their specific service changes. But, Table 1-4 shows
that there is broad agreement on the new markets that Southwest is likely to serve when one
compares the Campbell-Hill and Eclat studies. This is interesting because these two studies
were sponsored by opposing groups in the debate over the repeal of the Wright Amendment.
1-6
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-4: Current and Forecast Service at DAL with Repeal of the Wright Amendment
Service at DAL
Apr-06
OAG
WN
ABQ
AMA
ATL
AUS
BHM
BNA
BOS
BWI
CLE
CLT
CMH
COS
CVG
DAY
DCA
DEN
DTW
ELP
EWR
FLL
HOU
IAD
IAH
IND
LAS
LBB
LAX
LGA
LIT
MAF
MCI
MCO
MDW
MEM
MIA
MKE
MSP
MSY
OAK
OKC
ORD
PHL
PHX
PIT
PVD
RDU
RNO
SAN
SAT
SEA
SFO
SDF
SJC
SLC
SNA
STL
TPA
TUL
TUS
AA
New WN Service Forecast for
DAL
2005
CO
Boyd
Campbell
Hill
Eclat
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
SH&E also developed a forecast that
showed
between
136-178
new
operations by WN, and between 158 and
288 new operations by AA.
Details on the points served were not
provided in the public document.
Sources: Campbell-Hill: “The
Wright Amendment Consumer Penalty”
(June 7, 2005); Eclat Consulting:
“Repealing the Wright Amendment—
Risks Facing Small Communities”
(October 2005); SH&E: "Potential Airport
Impacts—Repeal
of
the
Wright
Amendment” (May 2005)
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
1-7
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
In fact, Table 1-5 shows there is broad agreement across all four forecasts with respect to
Southwest’s likely utilization of gates at DAL. When one calculates average number of turns at
DAL resulting from the forecasts, we note that Southwest would not have sufficient gate
capacity using their present 14 gates. However, it is feasible that the carrier could
accommodate all of the forecasts with 15 to 20 gates. Even the SH&E aggressive forecast
could be accommodated with 21 gates.2
Table 1-5 also makes clear the very close correspondence in projected operations by
Southwest’s forecast by four independent entities. With the exception of the SH&E aggressive
forecast, the range of projected operations by Southwest is between 300 and 360 operations
per day. Assuming an average of ten turns per gate, this difference amounts to three gatesworth of capacity between the lowest forecast—Boyd—and the SH&E moderate forecast.
Table 1-5: Alternative Forecasts of Changes in WN Operations at Love Field
WN
SPONSOR
TOTAL NEW
Boyd
None
66
Campbell
Hill
WN
90
Eclat
AA
136
SH&E
SH&E
Moderate Aggressive
DFW
136
178
WN
EXISTING
HOU
AUS
MSY
SAT
OKC
LIT
MAF
AMA
LBB
REVISED
234
234
234
-8
-4
-2
-6
-2
-4
-4
-8
-4
192
224
224
WN
TOTAL
300
324
328
360
402
10.7
5.6
11.6
6.0
11.7
6.1
12.9
6.7
14.4
7.4
WN Gate Turns
Gates
14
27
Turning now to projected operations by carriers other than Southwest in the event of the repeal
of the Wright Amendment, there is a wide variation among the four forecasts. The Boyd and
Campbell Hill forecasts show no increase in operations by other carriers, concluding that
operations at DAL would merely divert traffic from established operations at DFW. In contrast,
both Eclat and SH&E show sharp increases in operations by other airlines (OAL), ranging from
182 to 313 operations per day. The Eclat and SH&E “moderate” forecasts show essentially the
same increase with the former providing details on new service points. Eclat shows American
adding 58 operations per day, and AirTran and other airlines adding 34 and 33 operations per
day.
Table 1-6 shows that it is differences in the projected increases in operations by airlines other
than Southwest that account for a large portion of the variation in projected total operations
among the forecasts. The table also provides information on scheduled operations as of April
2
These forecasts also assume that all other airport facilities are modified and can adequately handle the added traffic.
1-8
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2006. Recent service additions at DAL by Southwest and American have accounted for a 10
percent increase in baseline operations relative to when the four forecasts were completed in
2005. These additions are due primarily to the addition of Missouri to the Wright Amendment
service area this year.
Table 1-6: Comparison of Current Operations and Recent Forecasts
Operations
WN
Existing
WN
Reductions
WN
Existing Forecast
WN
New
WN
Total Forecast
April OAG
BOYD
ECLAT
CAMPBELL
HILL
SH&E
MODERATE
SH&E
AGGRESSIVE
242
234
234
224
224
242
234
234
-42
192
234
224
224
66
136
90
136
178
242
300
328
324
360
402
25
32
25
25
25
25
0
25
158
183
288
313
349
543
715
Other Airlines
CO
AA
Airtran
OAL as a group
TOTAL OAL OPERATIONS
57
0
25
25
90
34
33
182
TOTAL OPERATIONS
299
325
510
One way to gain a better perspective on these forecasts is to examine how feasible each would
be given alternative gate complexes at DAL. Here, the ground rules of the GRA forecast are
applied to determine if there is sufficient capacity to accommodate the traffic forecasts
summarized in Table 1-6. Recall that two scenarios are being examined:3
Q Scenario A: Current gate complex (19 gates), plus one additional gate, for a distribution of
20 gates on a preferential basis.
Q Scenario B: Current gate complex (19 gates), with the addition of six gates on Lemmon
Avenue upgraded to accommodate A320 class aircraft and seven gates on the North
Concourse capable of handling B787 aircraft for a total of 32 gates; both increments in gate
capacity would be distributed on a common use basis.
Table 1-7 shows that if reasonable assumptions are made about average turns per gate, only
the Boyd and Campbell-Hill forecasts are likely to be feasible at DAL as it is currently configured
and with the current distribution of gates. This assumes that Southwest’s maximum average
turns per gate is 10 while more traditional hub and spoke carriers could manage at most eight
turns on average. The top portion calculates the average turns per gate implied in each
forecast. Notice that American would need 15 turns per gate to sustain either the Eclat or
SH&E forecasts. American’s three gates are capable of 24 turns or 48 operations per day (with
standard jets) while Eclat has projected 90 operations per day. American might be able to
double its capacity on some of its gates by operating RJ’s, however; a large scale RJ operation
with inherent higher unit costs would be less cost competitive with Southwest’s costs, however..
Southwest would be short of gates if it chose to operate the number of flights projected by
Campbell-Hill and Boyd (again assuming the current distribution of gates), but, under the rules
of this engagement, their excess flights could be accommodated at other gates.
3
See Table 1.
1-9
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
The bottom part of the table below calculates the maximum number of operations for each
carrier grouping assuming the current distribution of gates. The final row shows the shortfall in
operations relative to each forecast. Using this method, the airport would be capable of
producing 380 commercial operations per day, even if gate capacity were redistributed among
the carriers.
The results for cases with 20 and 32 gates are shown in Table 1-7. The top of the table reports
the results for the 20 gate scenario, Scenario A. Overall, the airport could accommodate 380
operations per day, and as a result in the 20 gate case there is a shortfall in operations relative
to the Eclat and SH&E forecasts. The top portion calculates the average turns per gate implied
in each forecast. With its current complement of gates, American would need 15 turns per gate
to sustain either the Eclat or SH&E forecasts. American’s three gates are capable of 24 turns or
48 operations per day (with standard jets) while Eclat has projected 90 operations per day.
American might be able to double its capacity on some of its gates by operating RJ’s, however;
a large scale RJ operation with inherent higher unit costs would be less competitive with
Southwest’s costs, however. Southwest would also be short of gates, except in the Boyd
forecast.
In Scenario B, shown at the bottom of Table 1-7, thirteen additional common use gates are
added to the existing complex with the airport reaching its full 32-gate capacity. With the
addition of 13 common gates, carriers have relatively easy access to the capacity they need to
expand. In this scenario, there would remain shortfalls only in the SH&E aggressive forecast,
again assuming feasible accommodation across all gates.
Table 1-7: Scenario A & B- Feasibility of Alternative Forecasts with 20 & 32 Gates
20 GATES
Scenario A: 20 gates
Max Capacity = 380 Operations*
WN Operations
TOTAL OPERATIONS
Max Turns Gate Distribution 20 gates
10
WN
15
8
AA
3
8
CO
2
8
Common
0
WN
AA
CO
OAL
15
3
2
0
Max Ops
300
48
32
0
380
April OAG
BOYD
244
299
300
325
8.1
5.3
6.3
0
10.0
0
6.3
0
242
32
25
0
300
20
25
0
CAMPBELL
ECLAT
HILL
324
328
349
510
AVERAGE TURNS
10.8
10.9
0
15
6.3
6.3
0
0
12.0
15
6.3
0
13.4
15
6.3
0
CAPACITY CAPPED OPERATIONS
300
300
300
44
48
48
25
32
32
0
0
0
300
48
32
0
TOTAL CAPACITY CAPPED OPERATIONS
299
345
369
SHORT FALL IN FORECAST OPERATIONS
0
0
0
*Assume 10 turns per WN gate and 8 for all others: [(14gates*10) + (5gates*8)] *2 = 360
1-10
SH&E
SH&E
MODERATE AGGRESSIVE
360
402
543
715
380
-130
380
-163
380
-335
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Scenario B: 32 Gates
FORECAST OPERATIONS
Max Turns Gate Distribution 32 gates Max Ops
10
WN
14
280
8
AA
3
48
8
CO
2
32
8
Common
13
208
TOTAL
568
Revised Total Operations
Assume Min 6, Max 10 Turns
WN
AA
CO
OAL
TOTAL CAPACITY CAPPED OPERATIONS
SHORT FALL IN FORECAST OPERATIONS
1.6
April OAG
BOYD
299
325
12.1
2.0
1.6
0.0
15.7
CAMPBELL
HILL
ECLAT
SH&E
SH&E
MODERATE AGGRESSIVE
15.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
17.0
349
510
543
TOTAL GATES REQUIRED
16.2
16.4
18.0
0.0
5.6
0.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
4.2
9.9
18.2
28.2
29.9
20.1
0.0
2.0
18.0
40.1
242
32
25
0
280
0
25
20
CAPACITY CAPPED OPERATIONS
280
280
280
0
48
48
25
25
25
44
157
190
280
48
25
208
299
0
325
0
349
0
510
0
543
0
715
561
-154
GRA Near-Term Unconstrained Forecast
The purpose of the near-term forecast was to identify the set of possible profitable service
additions that would result from the repeal of the Wright Amendment. This forecast was not
constrained based on gates available. In addition to reviewing the forecast made by other firms
(described immediately above), GRA also:
Q Conducted in-person interviews with American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, DFW Airport,
Love Field, and other airline network planners.
Q Assembled information on market sizes and existing schedules.
Q Identified existing stations operated by carriers.
Q Reviewed existing and planned future fleets.
Q Assessed the consistency of Love Field service with carrier business cases.
Likely service introductions were identified to occur in large markets where a carrier already had
a station and where the carrier had:
Q A sustainable cost advantage.
Q A structural advantage defined as a connecting hub or focus city on at least one side of a
segment.
Q The potential to offer a unique service unlikely to be duplicated by others.
Where there was substantial potential for profitable service, specific aircraft rotations and
service frequencies were developed. This helped confirm that the posited services would result
in high aircraft and labor utilization, two important determinants of airline profitability, and would
meet basic scheduling constraints.
Finally, it should be noted that in developing the near-term forecast, the number of gates at
Love was not a constraint. Instead the focus was on the near-term profit opportunities for
carriers based on the criteria described immediately above.
Table 1-8 illustrates the process developed for screening for potential service additions at
Dallas Love Field. The estimates of passengers on-board are illustrative only and do not
represent the specific markets described in the table.
1-11
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
In the example in Table 1-8, it is assumed that there are approximately 300 passengers per day
each way (PDEW) traveling to and from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and currently there is
no non-stop service available at Love Field, at least in part because the Wright Amendment
prohibits such flights. With the repeal of the amendment, the carriers with a station in the
subject market might consider adding service to Love Field, if they had a sustainable cost
advantage or a structural advantage on either end of the flight, or otherwise could offer service
that would be unlikely to be matched by other airlines. It is also assumed that if the carrier were
to fly three times per day, it would capture approximately 50 percent of the market. The top left
portion of Table 1-8 shows the calculation of on-board load factor made up of local passengers
and connecting passengers. This results in an estimated load factor of 52 percent for the
proposed service, which is too low to sustain profitable operations.
In the example, it is assumed that if the same carrier flew twice a day, it would capture
approximately 40 percent of the market, resulting in a 62 percent load factor. A carrier might
decide to enter the market with this expected load factor realizing that over time the market
would grow, as would its on-board loads.
Table 1-8: Example of Airline Profit Opportunity
SAMPLE AIRLINE WORKSHEETS
DAL
ORIG
DEST
METRO
PDEW
QSI
SHARE
LOCAL
PAX
CTC
PCT
CTC
PAX
TOTAL
ONBOARD
freq x seats
3
122
300
300
0.5
0.5
150
150
0.3
0.1
64
17
214
167
366
366
TOTAL ONBOARD
381
LOAD FACTOR
732
52%
2 R/T TO SEA AND DTW; 2 A/C
DAL
ORIG
DEST
METRO
PDEW
QSI
SHARE
LOCAL
PAX
CTC
PCT
CTC
PAX
TOTAL
ONBOARD
freq x seats
2
122
300
300
0.4
0.4
120
120
0.3
0.1
51
13
171
133
244
244
TOTAL ONBOARD
305
LOAD FACTOR
WITH STIMULATION
METRO
DAL
PDEW
ORIG
DEST
360
360
0015
DAL
0600
1030
DAL
0700
DTW
DTW
1100
DAL
1250
DAL
SEA
1330
1600
SEA
DAL
1530
2150
DAL
SEA
0700
0930
SEA
DAL
DAL
1545
DTW
1915
DTW
1945
DAL
2130
TOTAL
DEN
DAL
0700
1030
DAL
DEN
1000
1125
DEN
1200
DAL
1500
DAL
1530
DEN
1625
DEN
1700
DAL
2000
DAL
2030
DEN
------------------->
488
LOCAL
PAX
CTC
PCT
CTC
PAX
TOTAL
ONBOARD
freq x seats
3
122
0.5
0.5
180
180
0.3
0.1
77
20
257
200
366
366
457
732
TOTAL ONBOARD
17
4
4
2.5
2.5
13
0900
1515
3 R/T
------------------->
BLK HOURS
4
2.5
2.5
4
4
TOTAL
62%
0.2
QSI
SHARE
LOAD FACTOR
SEA
2125
TOTAL
BLK HOURS
2
2
2
2
2
2
12
62%
In Table 1-8, we have assumed, for illustration purposes only, that two of these markets are
Seattle and Detroit. We then developed a set of aircraft rotations that results in very high
utilization rates for two aircraft, approximately 17 hours on one (benefiting from eastbound redeye flying) and 13 hours per day on the other. With this level of utilization, it is apparent that the
carriers would have a good opportunity to earn a profit, especially given the other criteria for
selection.
The bottom part of the chart repeats the same exercise but assumes that the carriers’ entry
stimulates the market by 20 percent. Stimulation would be more likely in markets where there
are no low cost carriers serving the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. In this case, a carrier
examining a market currently with 300 passengers per day each way might be able to offer
three frequencies per day and capture a larger market share because of the stimulation its entry
1-12
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
would cause. The aircraft rotations for this service are illustrated in the box to the right of the
illustration. We created actual rotations for every market assumed to have entry at Love.
The change in non-stop service for the unconstrained near-term forecast is summarized in
Table 1-9. The individual LOCIDs of other airports together with the market sizes to the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex are shown in the first two columns of the table. The third column
shows existing services at DAL, including the recently added services to Kansas City (MCI) and
St. Louis (STL).
The remaining columns in the table illustrate forecast entry at Love Field as a result of the
repealed Wright Amendment. The table compares GRA’s forecast entry with those of other
firms.
Table 1-9: Near-Term Existing and Forecast Market Entry at Dallas Love Field
Metroplex
DAL
YE 3Q 05 April 2006
LOCID
PDEW
Service
ABQ
AMA
ATL
AUS
BHM
BNA
BOS
BWI
CLE
CLT
CMH
COS
CVG
DAY
DCA
DEN
DTW
ELP
EWR
FLL
HOU
IAD
IAH
IND
JFK
LAS
LBB
LAX
LGA
LIT
MAF
482
359
1453
771
168
304
709
713
194
331
222
134
211
145
609
929
455
505
709
448
1621
331
709
292
210
1213
446
1116
1216
393
319
ü
ü
New Service Due to Wright Repeal
Campbell
Hill
GRA
Boyd
Eclat
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Metroplex
DAL
YE 3Q 05 April 2006
LOCID
PDEW
Service
MAF
MCI
MCO
MDW
MEM
MIA
MKE
MSP
MSY
OAK
OKC
ORD
PHL
PHX
PIT
PVD
RDU
RNO
SAN
SAT
SEA
SFO
SDF
SJC
SLC
SNA
STL
TPA
TUL
TUS
319
429
924
521
187
354
256
676
651
217
208
1147
618
683
271
98
356
138
439
1052
535
535
129
360
311
525
463
476
403
145
ü
ü
New Service Due to Wright Repeal
Campbell
GRA
Hill
Boyd
Eclat
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
ü
Table 1-10 shows the time of day activity projections for the unconstrained forecast in the event
of the repeal of the Wright Amendment. The activity levels in this table are for a weekday. The
two left-hand columns show current operations (as of April 2006). The middle column shows
the added operations posited in the GRA forecast. The final three columns show totals. Figure
1-1 provides an illustration of the weekday pattern of service.
1-13
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-10: GRA Near-Term Time of Day Forecast for DAL (Weekday)
2006 OPERATIONS
Departures
Arrivals
2010
Hour
0000
0100
0200
0300
0400
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
11
14
10
9
7
9
11
8
9
12
11
11
9
6
6
0
0
150
NEW OPERATIONS
Departures
Arrivals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
12
8
10
7
10
10
8
11
13
8
11
9
13
7
2
1
150
0
0
0
0
0
1
8
14
1
3
10
6
6
6
8
8
2
6
10
4
3
3
0
1
100
Departures
TOTAL
Arrivals
Operations
0
0
0
0
0
1
15
25
15
13
19
13
15
17
16
17
14
17
21
13
9
9
0
1
250
2
0
0
0
0
3
3
10
13
18
16
13
17
16
14
18
18
14
18
14
21
13
5
4
250
2
0
0
0
0
4
18
35
28
31
35
26
32
33
30
35
32
31
39
27
30
22
5
5
500
2
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
1
10
6
6
7
6
6
7
5
6
7
5
8
6
3
3
100
Figure 1-1: Arrival – Departure Pattern: Near-Term Forecast
2010 Departures and Arrivals by Hour (Thursday)
50
45
40
35
30
10
18
16
18
16
25
17
13
14
18
20
18
14
14
13
21
3
13
15
25
10
21
19
15
15
13
13
15
17
16
17
17
14
13
5
0
9
2
0
0000
0
0100
0
0200
0
0300
0
0400
9
3
1
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
Departures
1-14
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
5
4
0
2200
2300
1
Arrivals
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-11 provides additional information on the near-term forecast, including statistics on
average seat size per commercial operation. Also shown in Table 1-11 is the distribution of
operations by aircraft type and mileage block. In the near-term forecast, carriers are assumed
to continue to use their existing aircraft fleets; there is no substitution of more modern
technology airplanes within the time period.
Table 1-11: Characteristics of the Near-Term Forecast
FLIGHT CHARACTERISTICS
Current 2006 Operations
Total Seats
35,282
Total Ops
300
Avg Seats per Op
117.6
2010 Forecast New Flying
Total Seats
24,130
Total Ops
200
Avg Seats per Op
120.7
2010 Total Forecast
Total Seats
59,412
Total Ops
500
Avg Seats per Op
118.8
DISTRIBUTION OF OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE AND MILEAGE BLOCK
Miles
0000-0500
0501-1000
1001-1500
1501-2000
717
0
12
0
0
733
68
20
0
0
735
124
6
0
0
738
0
2
8
0
73G
18
66
58
8
CR7
0
12
0
0
ER3
2
0
0
0
ER4
42
0
0
0
E70
0
22
8
0
E90
0
0
6
4
MD80
6
8
0
0
TOTAL
260
148
80
12
500
Only 40 of 300 current operations exceed 500 miles.
For airport planning purposes, it is important to convert daily services to annual estimates of
enplanements and operations. To make these estimates, airline services at other airports were
examined and compared to DAL. Because of the Wright Amendment, there are few
opportunities to make connections at DAL because of the prohibition against through ticketing
and because there are fewer services to distant cities than would otherwise be the case. In
examining similar airports including Houston Hobby and Chicago Midway, it was concluded that
the load factor at DAL would increase if the Wright Amendment were appealed. The T-100 data
were also used for these airports to annualize the daily operations and enplanements, taking
account of both cancellations and seasonal variations in services. The results are illustrated
below in Figure 1-2.
1-15
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 1-2: Near-Term Forecast Annual Enplanements and Commercial Operations
Historic and Projected
Annual
Annual
Enplanements
Enplanements at DAL
8000000
7000000
6000000
Enplanements
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Annual Enplanements
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010E
3504959
3481830
3340607
3415785
3544454
3552419
2820122
2783787
2902288
2977546
7,071,316
Year
Historic
andand
Projected
Commercial
Operations
at DAL
Historic
ProjectedAnnual
Annual Commercial
Operations
at DAL
Operations
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
DAL Comm'l Ops
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
94110
92231
97090 103406 109126 102970 91579 90084
2004
2005
2010E
89738
84640 163,398
Year
Finally, as noted previously, the GRA near-term forecast was not constrained specifically by
gate limitations at Love Field. Nevertheless, it is interesting to examine whether gate limitations
would in fact impinge on the future operations forecast. In Table 1-12, the same criteria were
applied for the number of turns per gate to the GRA forecast discussed earlier in this report. As
a result, the GRA forecast could not be fully implemented in the 20-gate scenario, but would be
feasible in the 32-gate scenario. The results for other forecasts made by other firms are also
shown in Table 1-12.
1-16
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-12: Applying Gate Constraints to Near-Term Forecasts
Comparison of the GRA 2010 Forecast with other Forecasts
Existing Operations
New Operations
TOTAL FORECAST
Scenario A: 20 Gates
Scenario B: 32 Gates
1.7
April
OAG
GRA
Boyd
Campbell
Hill
ECLAT
SH&E
Moderate
SH&E
Aggressive
300
0
300
300
300
300
200
500
380
500
259
66
325
325
325
259
90
349
349
349
259
251
510
380
497
249
294
543
380
529
249
466
715
380
571
GRA Long-Term Forecasts
The near-term forecast provided a useful platform for identifying profitable opportunities for
airlines in the event that the Wright Amendment is repealed. But, because the near-term
forecast was unconstrained by gate capacity, it may not represent a realistic future scenario for
Love Field, at least under certain gate scenarios.
In order to develop the longer-term forecast, GRA focused on the same profit opportunities for
airlines but took into account difference in service patterns under two gate capacity scenarios:
Q 20 Gate Scenario: 19 gates distributed as they are today and one additional gate used on a
preferential basis by Southwest.
Q 32 Gate Scenario: Assumed the same distribution of current gates, and then common gate
utilization for the incremental 13 gates.
In each scenario, it was assumed that the gate capacity would be limited, in part, by airline
business models. It was also assumed that origin-destination carriers such as Southwest
Airlines might be able to realize up to 10 or 11 turns per day on their gates, while hub and spoke
carriers would be more constrained and would be able to average approximately eight turns per
day. The difference in number of turns occurs because hub and spoke carriers generally need
to time their arrivals and departures in order to hit hub banks and therefore may need additional
turn time at out stations like DAL.
Again, profit opportunities for carriers made possible by the repeal of the Wright Amendment
were the main focus. Another main focus again was on large markets where carriers would
have:
Q A sustainable cost advantage;
Q A structural advantage on at least one side of a flight, and/or;
Q The opportunity to provide a unique service not likely to be matched by others.
Table 1-13 shows that there would be more non-stop service in the 32-gate scenario. Thirty-six
non-stop points will be added in the long-term under this scenario. In contrast, 16 new service
points would be feasible in a 20 gate scenario. It should be noted that the non-stop points in the
20 gate scenario are among the largest markets to the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Since
larger markets tend to offer greater profit opportunities this result should not be surprising.
1-17
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-13: Long-Term Forecast Non-Stop Service at DAL with 20 and 32 Gates
Metroplex
2020
Metroplex
2020
DAL 2006
New Service at DAL
DAL 2006
New Service at DAL
LOCID PDEW
HOU
ATL
LGA
LAS
ORD
LAX
SAT
DEN
MCO
AUS
BWI
IAH
EWR
BOS
PHX
MSP
MSY
PHL
DCA
SFO
SEA
SNA
MDW
ELP
ABQ
TPA
STL
DTW
FLL
LBB
SAN
1621
1453
1216
1213
1147
1116
1052
929
924
771
713
709
709
709
683
676
651
618
609
535
535
525
521
505
482
476
463
455
448
446
439
Service
GRA 32
Gates
GRA 20
Gates
LOCID PDEW
P
MCI
TUL
LIT
SJC
AMA
RDU
MIA
IAD
CLT
MAF
SLC
BNA
IND
ONT
PIT
MKE
SMF
PDX
CMH
OAK
CVG
JFK
OKC
CLE
MEM
BHM
DAY
TUS
RNO
COS
SDF
PVD
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
429
403
393
360
359
356
354
331
331
319
311
304
292
283
271
256
255
249
222
217
211
210
208
194
187
168
145
145
138
134
129
98
Service
GRA 32
Gates
GRA 20
Gates
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
Table 1-14 and Figure 1-3 show the weekday flight pattern for the 20 and 32 gate long-term
forecasts. It should be noted that in the 20 gate scenario, there are more average turns per
gate. Experience suggests that at constrained facilities like DAL, carriers find means to turn
gates more intensively than at airports with more generous gate endowments. Of course the
most salient feature of the forecast illustrated in both Table 1-14 and Figure 1-3 is the
substantial difference in weekday operations in the 32 gate scenario.
1-18
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 1-14: Long-Term Forecasts - Weekday Flight Patterns
2020 - 20 Gate Scenario
DAL
Hour
0000
0100
0200
0300
0400
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
Grand
Total
2020 - 32 Gate Scenario
Departures
Arrivals
Total
Operations
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
18
15
13
14
10
13
16
11
14
14
13
18
10
8
8
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
10
12
14
13
11
15
13
10
16
15
13
14
11
19
12
2
4
0
0
0
0
0
2
14
28
27
27
27
21
28
29
21
30
29
26
32
21
27
20
2
5
208
208
416
Average Gate Turn Per Day
DAL Hour
0000
0100
0200
0300
0400
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
Grand
Total
10.4
Departures Arrivals
0
0
0
0
0
1
16
30
18
21
21
19
17
20
19
17
16
19
21
18
9
9
0
1
2
0
0
0
0
8
3
11
17
21
18
15
20
20
19
20
25
17
18
14
21
14
5
4
2
0
0
0
0
9
19
41
35
42
39
34
37
40
38
37
41
36
39
32
30
23
5
5
292
292
584
Average Gate Turn Per Day
1-19
Total
Operations
9.1
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 1-3: Long Term Forecasts: Weekday Flight Patterns
2020 Departures and Arrivals by Hour with 20 Gates (Thursday)
50
40
30
10
20
14
12
14
13
15
13
16
15
13
10
11
12
19
12
2
10
18
12
0
0
0000
0
0100
0
0200
0
0300
0
0400
2
0
0500
0600
0700
15
0800
13
0900
14
1000
13
10
1100
1200
16
1300
12
1400
14
1500
14
1600
18
13
1700
10
1800
1900
8
2000
8
2100
4
1
2
0
2200
2300
5
4
0
2200
2300
-10
-20
-30
Departures
Arrivals
2020 Departures and Arrivals by Hour with 32 Gates (Thursday)
50
45
40
11
35
21
18
30
20
18
19
17
15
20
25
20
17
14
25
20
21
3
21
10
21
18
16
19
20
17
19
17
19
21
18
16
8
5
0
14
30
15
2
0
0000
0
0100
0
0200
0
0300
0
0400
9
9
1
0500
0600
0700
0800
0900
1000
1100
Departures
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
1
Arrivals
Table 1-15 provides some additional information on the characteristics of each scenario. The
top part of the table shows weekday average seat size and operations counts for the 20 gate
scenario. Included in this chart is a distribution of aircraft by length of flight. The same
characteristics are repeated for the 32 gate scenario at the bottom of the table. Differences in
the scenarios include:
1-20
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Q Average seat size remains approximately constant in the 20 gate scenario as carriers use
larger equipment to process more passengers through a more limited gate facility than in the
32 gate scenario.
Q There is more long-haul flying in the 32 gate scenario as carriers are able to serve 20
additional non-stop points.
The distribution of flying also shows another important feature of the long-term forecasts. In all
three scenarios, virtually all of the flying is done by very modern equipment. We have assumed
very limited operations by old technology Category III aircraft such as the MD-80. In the longterm, virtually all of these aircraft will have been retired from service.
Table 1-15: Characteristics of the 20 and 32 Gate Long-Term Forecast
20 Gate Scenario
Current 2006 Operations; 2020 Eqpt
Total Seats
38,906
Total Ops
300
Avg Seats per Op
129.7
NEWFLT
distcat
738
1 0000-0500
0501-1000
1001-1500
1501-2000
Added Flying: 2020 20 Gates
Total Seats
14,970
Total Ops
116
Avg Seats per Op 129.1
73G
CR7
18
6
8
0
32
Grand Total
192
68
40
8
308
E70
0
12
0
0
12
2020 Total Forecast: 20 Gates
Total Seats
53,876
Total Ops
416
Avg Seats per Op
129.5
E90
M80
44
0
0
0
44
0
0
6
0
6
6
8
0
0
14
Grand Total
260
94
54
8
416
32-Gate Scenario
Current 2006 Operations; 2020 Eqpt
Total Seats
38,906
Total Ops
300
Avg Seats per Op
129.7
2020 Added Flying 32 Gates
Total Seats
34,670
Total Ops
284
Avg Seats per Op
122.1
2020 Total Forecast: 32 Gates
Total Seats
73,576
Total Ops
584
Avg Seats per Op
126
2020 32 Gates
NEWFLT
Grand Total
distcat
1 0000-0500
0501-1000
1001-1500
1501-2000
717
0
12
0
0
12
733
2
0
0
0
2
735
8
2
0
0
10
738
18
8
8
0
34
73G
194
105
91
12
402
CR7
0
12
0
0
12
E70
44
22
18
0
84
E90
0
0
8
6
14
MD80
6
8
0
0
14
Grand Total
272
169
125
18
584
Finally, Figures 1-4 and 1-5 provide estimates of annual enplanements and annual commercial
operations at DAL in the 20 and 32 gate scenarios respectively. Each of the figures show that
enplanements and operations through 2005 have not returned to pre-9/11 levels. The repeal of
the Wright Amendment would result in relatively sharp increases in operations and
enplanements in both scenarios. Obviously, the 32 gate scenario would create substantially
more opportunities for airlines to operate at DAL resulting in more dramatic increases in both
enplanements and operations.
1-21
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 1-4: 20 Gates Long-Term Forecast - Annual Enplanements and Operations
Forecast Enplanements 2020: 20-Gate Scenario
7000000
6000000
Enplanements
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Enplanements
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2020E
3504959
3481830
3340607
3415785
3544454
3552419
2820122
2783787
2902288
2977546
6,155,406
Year
Forecast Operations 2020: 20-Gate Scenario
160000
140000
120000
Operations
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Operations
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2020 E
94110
92231
97090
103406
109126
102970
91579
90084
89738
84640
135,947
Year
Operations
1-22
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 1-5: 32 Gates Long-Term Forecast - Annual Enplanements and Operations
2020 Forecast Enplanements: 32 Gate Scenario
10000000
9000000
8000000
Enplanements
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Enplanements
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2020E
3504959
3481830
3340607
3415785
3544454
3552419
2820122
2783787
2902288
2977546
8,757,139
Year
2020 Forecast Operations: 32 Gate Scenario
250000
200000
Operations
150000
100000
50000
0
Operations
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2020 E
94110
92231
97090
103406
109126
102970
91579
90084
89738
84640
190,848
Year
1-23
5/31/2006
Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
1.8
Summary
Table 1-16 summarizes the 20 and 32 gate long-term forecasts developed in this report and
contrasts them with the FAA’s latest terminal area forecast for DAL. In summary, if the Wright
Amendment were repealed, the 20 gate forecast suggests that there would be a 40 percent
increase in both operations and enplanements at DAL in the long-term relative to levels now
expected by the FAA under the Wright Amendment. If instead, 32 gates were available and the
Wright Amendment was repealed, both enplanements and commercial operations would be
twice as high as the FAA now projects.
Table 1-16: Comparison of Long-Term Forecasts with FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast
Enplanements
Percent vs. TAF
Commercial Operations
Percent vs. TAF
Terminal Area
Forecast 2020
20 Gate Long
Term Forecast
32 Gate Long
Term Forecast
4,333,556
6,155,406
42%
135,947
41%
8,757,139
102%
190,848
99%
96,102
1-24
5/31/2006
Section 2
Noise Impact Analysis
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 2—NOISE IMPACT ANALYSIS
2.1
Introduction
2.1.1 Background
The basis for this noise analysis update is Section 1 of this report titled “Forecast of Activity at
Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment”, in which realistic air carrier
schedules were developed for the long term use of the 20 and 32 gate scenarios.
2.1.2 Purpose
The purpose of this noise analysis update is to assess the impacts that would occur under the
expected future air service in the absence of the Wright Amendment, and compare those
impacts to the Love Field Master Plan Impact Analysis published in March 2001. The following
sections provide an overview of the methodology, assumptions and findings of the analysis.
2.1.3 Methodology
The noise contours developed within this study were developed using the most updated version,
at the time this study began, of the FAA’s Integrated Noise Model (INM), Version 6.1. The INM
is designed to estimate the effects of aircraft noise surrounding an airport for an average annual
day. This is accomplished by taking a full year of data and averaging it into a 24-hour period.
The INM then uses this data to compute the day-night average sound level, or DNL, and identify
areas of varying levels of airport noise exposure.
It was important to objectively evaluate and isolate only the impacts related to the repeal of the
Wright Amendment and compare them to the Master Plan noise contours and impacts. Thus,
several noise modeling input factors from the Master Plan remained constant and were carried
through in this analysis, including the number and aircraft mix of general aviation operations, as
well as the time of day distribution of air carrier operations. The number of air carrier
operations, and the type and length of flight of air carrier aircraft, for each of the two gate
scenarios, are the main elements that differ in this impact analysis update.
The noise contours produced for the original 2001 Master Plan Impact Analysis were modeled
using INM 6.0, and used 1990 U.S. Census data for population estimates. This updated
analysis used INM 6.1, the FAA’s most current version available when the study commenced, to
model each of the scenarios. The updates within INM 6.1 incorporate several new algorithms,
based on United States and international research that alter some of the equations used to
calculate noise in propeller aircraft and jet aircraft with wing-mounted engines. These changes
more precisely model the lateral attenuation of noise resulting in noise exposure calculations
that better reflect aircraft noise propagation.
In order to maintain consistency between all scenarios, the 2001 Master Plan input data was
entered into INM 6.1 and reprocessed, along with updated population data from the 2000 U.S.
Census, to update the results using this enhanced version of the model. The reprocessing of
this data slightly altered the results previously reported in the Master Plan Impact Analysis;
however, the results are in accordance with today’s standards for noise modeling and allow for
a more accurate and fair comparison with the two new gate scenarios.
2-1
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2.2
Technical Discussion
2.2.1 Integrated Noise Model Overview
Since 1978, the Integrated Noise Model (INM) has been the FAA’s standard tool used in
determining aircraft noise levels generated by the specific characteristics of aircraft operations
at an airport. Its origins were for the purpose of compatible land use planning around airports
and it has been continuously updated through years of research to better refine the propagation
of aircraft noise.
The INM requires the following data to be compiled as input to the program:
Q A description of the airport layout; specifically the location, length and width of the active
runways at the airport;
Q Runway utilization assignments of aircraft arrivals and departures;
Q The various arrival and departure flight tracks to and from each runway and the frequency
that each track is used;
Q The number and time of day of operations, as well as the type of aircraft operating at the
airport and the stage lengths of departing aircraft. Stage length information is necessary to
identify aircraft takeoff weights.
The INM generates a grid surrounding the airport, the size and complexity of which is based on
user input, and calculates the noise level at each point within the grid based on the input data
described above. The INM then connects the grid points of those having the same noise level
value through a curve drawing algorithm to create a noise contour. The more points included
within the grid and the less separation between each of the points, the more precise and
sharper the contour line.
In addition to modeling noise at specific grid points to create a noise contour line, INM can also
calculate noise levels at other points identified by the user or from other sources. This is a
valuable feature of INM. It allows U.S. Census population data to be modeled to estimate the
number of people impacted by a specific noise level. The U.S. Census data contains population
levels for census blocks; each block is identified by a data point based on latitude and longitude.
INM calculates the noise level for each data point within a defined area, and then computes the
total population for each point. For example, typically it is desired to know how many people are
estimated to be located within the DNL 65 dB noise contour. The INM will compute the total
population for each data point where the INM calculated the noise level to be at or above DNL
65 dB. While this is a beneficial tool, the results of the census analysis are not exactly the
actual number of people residing within the contour. This is because a contour line may cross
the middle of a census block. The entire population contained within the block is counted even
though some people may not actually reside within the noise contour.
2.2.2 Runway Utilization
Runway utilization at an airport is a primary factor in defining the noise exposure pattern. The
more frequently aircraft utilize a particular runway, especially for departures and nighttime
operations; the greater the amount of noise energy that will be attributed to that runway. The
Love Field runway utilization for this analysis was obtained from the 2001 Airport Master Plan.
The percentages were originally derived using data from the Love Field Noise and Operations
Monitoring System (NOMS) for the months of January through October 2000. Runway
utilization, presented on the following page in Table 2-1, was divided by arrivals and departures,
day and night, and was then sorted by aircraft operator groups established in the GRA air
service forecast from Section 1.
2-2
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 2-1: Runway Utilization (2001 Master Plan)
Aircraft
Master Plan 32 Gates
Operator
Arrivals
Departures
Group /
Day
Night
Day
Night
Runway
Airline Group A
13R
65%
65%
70%
71%
31L
22%
31%
20%
26%
13L
10%
3%
6%
1%
31R
2%
1%
3%
1%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
Airline Group B
13R
9%
57%
18%
14%
31L
1%
10%
3%
5%
13L
75%
17%
63%
71%
31R
15%
10%
15%
10%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
Airline Group C
13R
10%
72%
10%
73%
31L
1%
15%
2%
16%
13L
74%
8%
74%
7%
31R
15%
5%
15%
4%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
Airline Group D
13R
15%
28%
15%
47%
31L
5%
9%
5%
10%
13L
59%
46%
57%
28%
31R
20%
18%
23%
15%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
Air Cargo
13R
8%
24%
4%
24%
31L
2%
8%
1%
8%
13L
64%
48%
71%
48%
31R
27%
19%
24%
19%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
General Aviation and Air Taxi Jets
13R
15%
28%
15%
47%
31L
5%
9%
5%
10%
13L
59%
46%
57%
28%
31R
20%
18%
23%
15%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
General Aviation and Air Taxi Turboprops
13R
15%
15%
12%
3%
31L
6%
6%
5%
2%
13L
58%
56%
63%
72%
31R
20%
23%
20%
23%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
General Aviation and Air Taxi Piston
13R
12%
8%
10%
5%
31L
4%
3%
4%
2%
13L
63%
63%
63%
68%
31R
21%
26%
24%
25%
TOTAL
100% 100% 100% 100%
20 Gates No Wright
Arrivals
Departures
32 Gates No Wright
Arrivals
Departures
Day
Night
Day
Night
Day
Night
Day
Night
65%
22%
10%
2%
100%
65%
31%
3%
1%
100%
70%
20%
6%
3%
100%
71%
26%
1%
1%
100%
65%
22%
10%
2%
100%
65%
31%
3%
1%
100%
70%
20%
6%
3%
100%
71%
26%
1%
1%
100%
9%
1%
75%
15%
100%
57%
10%
17%
10%
100%
18%
3%
63%
15%
100%
14%
5%
71%
10%
100%
9%
1%
75%
15%
100%
57%
10%
17%
10%
100%
18%
3%
63%
15%
100%
14%
5%
71%
10%
100%
10%
1%
74%
15%
100%
72%
15%
8%
5%
100%
10%
2%
74%
15%
100%
73%
16%
7%
4%
100%
Not applicable since these operations
do not exist in this scenario
15%
5%
59%
20%
100%
28%
9%
46%
18%
100%
15%
5%
57%
23%
100%
47%
10%
28%
15%
100%
15%
5%
59%
20%
100%
28%
9%
46%
18%
100%
15%
5%
57%
23%
100%
47%
10%
28%
15%
100%
8%
2%
64%
27%
100%
24%
8%
48%
19%
100%
4%
1%
71%
24%
100%
24%
8%
48%
19%
100%
8%
2%
64%
27%
100%
24%
8%
48%
19%
100%
4%
1%
71%
24%
100%
24%
8%
48%
19%
100%
15%
5%
59%
20%
100%
28%
9%
46%
18%
100%
15%
5%
57%
23%
100%
47%
10%
28%
15%
100%
15%
5%
59%
20%
100%
28%
9%
46%
18%
100%
15%
5%
57%
23%
100%
47%
10%
28%
15%
100%
15%
6%
58%
20%
100%
15%
6%
56%
23%
100%
12%
5%
63%
20%
100%
3%
2%
72%
23%
100%
15%
6%
58%
20%
100%
15%
6%
56%
23%
100%
12%
5%
63%
20%
100%
3%
2%
72%
23%
100%
12%
4%
63%
21%
100%
8%
3%
63%
26%
100%
10%
4%
63%
24%
100%
5%
2%
68%
25%
100%
12%
4%
63%
21%
100%
8%
3%
63%
26%
100%
10%
4%
63%
24%
100%
5%
2%
68%
25%
100%
SOURCE: Master Plan 2001, GRA Inc., DMJM Aviation, May 2006
2-3
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2.2.3 Flight Tracks
A flight track is the path over the ground flown by an aircraft while heading to or from a particular
runway at the airport. Figures 2-1 and 2-2 depict the arrival and departure flight tracks that
were modeled for the runways at DAL. The tracks displayed in Figure 2-1 are the primary
arrival (red) and departure (blue) tracks, while Figure 2-2 displays the dispersed flight tracks.
The purpose of dispersing flight tracks is to account for the “scatter” that normally occurs along
the primary flight track due to a variety of factors including wind drift and other factors of flight.
This procedure allows for a more realistic modeling of actual flight track patterns.
The flight tracks were originally derived for the 32 Gate Master Plan scenario from actual radar
data collected by the Airport NOMS. The same tracks, along with the same utilization of each
flight track by aircraft operator group, were used in the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
scenarios.
Figure 2-1: Primary Flight Tracks (2001 Master Plan)
SOURCE: Actual INM Screen Capture
2-4
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 2-2: Primary and Dispersed Flight Tracks (2001 Master Plan)
SOURCE: Actual INM Screen Capture
2.2.4 Aircraft Operations
Aircraft operations are the most important input data required to model noise at an airport. The
type of aircraft, frequency of arrivals and departures, and the time of day those operations occur
will have a major influence on the overall noise exposure.
There are many different aircraft types in operation including piston driven propeller, turbopropeller, business jets and air carrier jets. Each aircraft has its own unique characteristics that
determine the level of noise energy associated with it. These characteristics include the size
and weight of the aircraft, type of engine (jet vs. prop), number of engines, and distance (or
stage length) the aircraft will fly.
Obviously a jet aircraft will produce more noise than a piston driven propeller aircraft, but this is
not always the case when different types of jet aircraft are compared. The type of jet engine is
one particular key difference in defining the noise signature of a jet aircraft. As of January 1,
2000, all air carrier jet aircraft operating within the United States are Stage 3, meaning they
meet a quieter mandated noise threshold that is approximately 50% quieter than the previously
phased out Stage 2 aircraft. The required phase out of Stage 2 aircraft was limited to aircraft
weighing more than 75,000 lbs, meaning there are still many Stage 2 private and corporate
general aviation jets currently in operation. A number of these are much louder than some air
carrier jets.
2-5
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
The time of day an aircraft operates is an extremely important factor in modeling aircraft noise.
Aircraft that operate between the nighttime hours of 10:00 pm and 7:00 am are given a 10
decibel penalty in calculating DNL noise exposure. This penalty is intended to account for the
lower ambient (or background) noise levels that occur during the nighttime hours. Thus, the
noise energy associated with a single nighttime operation equates to the noise energy
associated with ten daytime operations. In many cases the noise generated by nighttime
operations can prevail over the noise generated during the daytime, even though there may be
fewer aircraft operations at night.
To objectively evaluate the noise impacts of repealing the Wright Amendment in the 20 and 32
gate scenarios, the only changes made to these No Wright Amendment scenarios, from that
included in the Master Plan runs, were the type and frequency of air carrier operations. These
were taken directly from Section 1.7. The time of day distribution of air carrier operations and
the general aviation fleet mix and activity levels used in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario were
used in the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios. This approach would result in
isolating any change in the noise characteristics that are predominately due to the repeal of the
Wright Amendment.
Table 2-2 displays modeled aircraft operations for each scenario broken down by aircraft
operating group, aircraft type (INM code), and number of operations by arrival and departure for
both daytime and nighttime operations.
2-6
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 2-2: Modeled Average Annual Day Aircraft Operations
Aircraft
Operating Group/
Aircraft Type
Master Plan 32 Gates
Departures
Arrivals
Day Night Day Night
20 Gates No Wright
Departures
Arrivals
Day Night Day Night
Airline Group A
B737-300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
B737-500
61
4
61
4
0
0
0
B737-700
61
1
61
1
98
9
99
Subtotal
122
5
122
5
98
9
99
Airline Group B
Fokker 100
23
3
24
2
0
0
0
MD80
0
0
0
0
6
1
6
Subtotal
23
3
24
2
6
1
6
Airline Group C
DC9-30
22
2
19
5
0
0
0
B717-200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Subtotal
22
2
19
5
0
0
0
Airline Group D
CRJ
31
8
36
3
5
0
5
EMB135
24
3
25
2
0
0
0
EMB145
4
0
2
2
0
0
0
EMB170/190
0
0
0
0
20
2
21
B737-500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
B737-700
0
0
0
0
28
3
28
B737-800
0
0
0
0
13
1
13
Subtotal
59
11
63
7
66
6
67
Air Cargo
B767-300
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
CNA208
0.5
0
0.5
0
0
0
0
CNA402
0.5
0
0.5
0
0
0
0
MD81
0.5
1
0
1
1
1
0
SD360
0.5
0
0
1
0
0
0
Subtotal
3
1
1
3
2
1
0
GA / AT Jet
Citation 3
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
CL600
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
CL601
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
EMB145
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
Citation 2
3
0
3
0
3
0
3
Falcon 900
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Falcon 20
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
GIIB
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
GIV
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Astra 1125
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Lear 25
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
Lear 35
11
1
11
1
11
1
11
MU300-10
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
Subtotal
36
2
35
2
36
2
35
GA / AT Turboprop
CNA441
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Dash 6
37
2
37
3
37
2
37
Dash 8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
HS748A
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
L188
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SD330
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
SF340
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Subtotal
43
5
42
7
43
5
42
GA / AT Prop
1-Eng. Fixed
11
2
11
2
11
2
11
1-Eng. Variable
26
6
26
6
26
6
26
DC3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BEC58P
59
14
59
14
59
14
59
Subtotal
96
22
96
22
96
22
96
Military
A7D
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C130
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Subtotal
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
Total
406
52
406
52
346
46
346
SOURCE: 2001 Master Plan Impact Analysis and GRA Inc. Technical Report #1
NOTE: Totals may vary due to rounding
2-7
32 Gates No Wright
Departures
Arrivals
Day Night Day Night
0
0
8
8
1
3
115
119
0
0
11
11
1
3
116
120
0
0
10
10
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
1
5
6
0
0
40
1
50
14
111
1
0
0
4
0
4
1
10
6
0
0
41
1
50
14
112
0
0
0
3
0
4
1
8
1
0
0
1
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
2
1
3
3
1
2
4
1
1
3
11
2
36
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
2
2
1
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
3
11
2
35
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
3
0
0
0
1
0
7
3
37
0
0
0
2
1
43
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
5
3
37
0
0
0
1
1
42
3
3
0
0
0
1
0
7
2
6
0
14
22
11
26
0
59
96
2
6
0
14
22
11
26
0
59
96
2
6
0
14
22
0
0
0
46
0
1
1
416
0
0
0
52
0
1
1
415
0
0
0
53
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2.2.5 Noise Modeling Results
The runway utilization, flight tracks, and aircraft operations described above for each scenario
were used as input to the INM to calculate the noise exposure levels surrounding the airport.
The noise contours do not represent the noise levels on any one day, but rather represent the
average daily noise pattern that would be experienced over a one year time period. The DNL
65 dB is being highlighted for comparison because it is the threshold used by the FAA for
classifying a particular land use, such as residential, as compatible (below DNL 65 dB) or noncompatible (greater than DNL 65 dB) with aircraft noise.
As previously discussed in Section 2.1.3 - Methodology, the noise contours developed for this
analysis were processed using INM 6.1. The noise contours produced for the Master Plan
Impact Analysis were processed using INM 6.0. To maintain consistency, the original 2001
Master Plan input data was entered into INM 6.1 and reprocessed to update the results using
this enhanced version of the model. As a result, the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario differs
slightly from what was published in the 2001 Master Plan Impact Analysis, but offers a more
accurate assessment of the noise impacts and an updated accounting of population impacts.
Figure 2-3 presents the original Master Plan 32 Gate scenario modeled in INM 6.0. Figure 2-4
presents the revised Master Plan 32 Gate scenario modeled in INM 6.1. The size of the DNL 65
dB noise contour modeled in INM 6.1 slightly decreased in area by 0.2 square miles from that
modeled INM 6.0. The population estimates increased by approximately 2,500 people due to
population growth reflected in the updated U.S. census data, and how INM 6.1 calculates noise
differently from INM 6.0. Table 2-3 summarizes the difference in impacts between the cases
modeled in INM 6.0 and INM 6.1.
Table 2-3: Noise Impacts for Master Plan 32 Gates - INM 6.0 vs. INM 6.1
Master Plan 32 Gate
INM 6.0/1990 U.S. Census
Impact by Contour
INM 6.1/2000 U.S. Census
Square Miles Population Square Miles Population
DNL 55 dB and above
22.3
95,533
23.2
111,395
DNL 60 dB and above
10.4
60,802
10.3
71,355
DNL 65 dB and above
4.8
23,198
4.6
24,872
DNL 70 dB and above
2.2
860
1.9
2,686
DNL 75 dB and above
0.9
0
0.9
0
SOURCE: 2001 Love Field Master Plan Impact Analysis and DMJM Aviation, May 2006
To maintain consistency for the purposes of this analysis, the revised Master Plan 32 Gate
scenario modeled in INM 6.1 has been used for comparison with the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenarios. Figure 2-5 presents the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario, and
Figure 2-6 presents the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario. These figures graphically
display the average noise exposure predicted to occur at the airport for 20 and 32 gates without
the restrictions of the Wright Amendment. The corresponding impact results of both scenarios
are summarized in Table 2-4.
2-8
5/31/2006
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LEGEND:
DNL Noise Contours
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise
Monitoring Sites
CLUB
FINLEY
RIDGE
FIELD
SEASIDE
STRAIT
THA ME
S
WILLOW
CREEK
HERRING
STOVALL
END RES
TRENT
LELA
THO MAS
LEA
ALAN
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LINDEN
MEDINA
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May 31, 2006
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DNL Noise Contours
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise
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FINLEY
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FIELD
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354
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12
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CO MM
67
FO
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348
PARK
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635
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E lm
Fo rk
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NO
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CROSSING
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482
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114
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356
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McBROOM
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BEDFORD
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Winchester Gu n Club
Ca lifornia
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114
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DE
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BACCARAT
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Un ive rsity
of
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183
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12
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348
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HENDERSON
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DAYWOOD
WILLIAMS
LANDMARK
6TH
356
SOUTHTREE
GROVE
OTTOWA
CE
West
Da llas
Housing
P ark
PUEBLO
PUEBLO
TORONTO
AKRON
AMOS
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YORK TO
MORGAN
OREGON
DEALEY
J ULIAN
TILDEN
77
C
LO
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RANCH
BU
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A
FU L LER
HUNT
CHAS
L as Colinas
Coun try
Club
LE
RO
CLARA
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S ID
KE
LA
AIRPORT
BELEW
EDITH
BLACKWELL
VANCE
BOWER
DAYWOOD
BEN
STONE
MARK
SHADY
CHAMBERLAIN
BELL
Oak
G rove
Me mo rial
P ark
Cem
PERRY
HARLAN
DREXEL
BOYD
DAISY
MARLYN
ROSS
JIM
UNION
MULLINS
McCLENDON
CHANNEL
OAK RIDGE
PIO NEER
3RD
5TH
4TH
LINDY
HUDSON
LACY
15TH
MEXICANA
OTTOWA
VA
MORRIS
ISON
AKRON
BEDFORD
POLLARD
COMMERCE
SEALE
MOBILE
30
S
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M
M
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EVERGREEN
ON
S
COLORADO
PARK
ROY
C
RE
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LINDA
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FO RE
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7TH
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AVE
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161
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114
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GRAUWYLER
CARROLL
6TH
8TH
9TH
CHAMBERLAIN
KING
MISSY
Twin Wells
P ark
G olf Co urse
CANADA
Tip ton
P ark
HOMELAND
CRANE
McBROOM
DE NN
TORONTO
HAYDALE
CHAPEL
MORRIS
GALLAGHER
BICKERS
NOMAS
PUEBLO
TORONTO
WEST
STAFFORD
WALMSEY
FLANDERS
GREEN
BRIAR
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ALLISON
WICKFORD
COLORADO
RAL
NT
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RK
W
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L
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LE
SAM HILL
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BELLAH
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3RD
4TH
15TH
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CREEK
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PA
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UNION
VIRGINIA
2ND
1ST
7TH
5TH
9TH
8TH
S enter
14TH
RE
FREEWAY
TORONTO
BLVD
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B
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T
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HOLLOW
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REDBIRD
P IO
NE
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BLUEBIRD
SUNSET
SCHULZE
NANCY
16TH
Fritz
P ark
DELAWA
LEATH
HOMELAND
GALLAGHER
Jaycee
P ark
AUSTELL
TURNPIKE
30
ATLANTIC
LEATRIC
SAM DEA
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DAL
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SOUTH ERN O
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SAGE
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T
SIDE
R
EA
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C
CL
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KB
ROY AL
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BO
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North L ake
College
HAM
DOWLING
DRISKILL
NELSON
VALLEY
REGINA
McHAM
FREEWAY
WEATHERED
LANE
WOODLEIGH
ABELIA
SCHULZE
SEGUNDO
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8TH
SUNNY
11TH
12TH
15TH
HICKORY
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BUR
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OLD ORCHARD
COLORADO
MARYDALE
NCY
AY
JOE
CR
CORPORATE
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WALNUT
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CARTWRIGHT
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P ark
3RD
6T
5TH
4TH
GLENWOOD
ARROWHEAD
MISTLEWOOD
FAIR OAKS
ELMS
PARKWOOD
SHADY
MOSELEY
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DR EW
RIC HEY
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FA NN
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FEW
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PENNYSTONE
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MERIDIAN
BRANGUS
TR ID
GE
GREENWAY
HACKB ERRY
W ES
RE
OR
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VE
RYAN
7TH
8TH
SHADOW
VILBIG
RUNSTONE
SUNSTONE
GOLD
OAKS
P op 155,037
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ZENITH
SINGLETON
RIV
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IT
L IM
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L IM
RF
HINES
HENRY
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DG
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LD
EN
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HUTTON
NTE
W
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RI
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KEVIN
J IMMIE
10TH
11TH
BENJAMIN
BRIER
FAIRFAX
RUSDELL
PHYLLIS
AF
PIN OAK
BO
C ITY
C ITY
S LOUGH
W HA
E
S IV
CHIPP
EWA
REMOND
LE HAVRE
TOURAINE
TANGIERS
COLORADO
OAKSHIRE
RE GE
NT
WE
B E ST
ND
RP
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ELL
161
L
NW O
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PKWY Y
COTTO
P ark
LE
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HILL
DE WITT
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GA
MO R
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M
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HA
AN DE
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CU N N I
McCLURE
RUTGERS
AN
CO
356
IL L I AMS
W
H
D
T H ER F OR
H
ILL
AIRPORT
P
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HO
DALE
HIMES
PATRICK
4TH
6TH
5TH
10TH
7TH
GROVE
WADE
NORMANDY
DRUID
V ILBIG
LAKE
G ARD
SEA ISLE
EN
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FERREL
R
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TU RN
EXPRESSWAY
HACKBERRY
L
CA
C AB
PREMIER
Fo rk
R
NE
F
HIL
CASTLE
SKYLINE
CI
RC
LE
DALLAS FORT WORTH
REGIONAL
AIRPORT
CIRCLE
STORY
SKYWAY
GATEWAY
CAMPUS
161
SKYWAY
WALNUT
V ictoria
P ark
O
STA N F
AN
YALE
SYRACUSE
WES L E Y
Y
BRIAR CLI F
KEYHOLE
NI
B U R N G TREE
TIM B E
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PEACH TREE
WINSLOW
POSEY
PENNINGTON
GREE NE
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G
O
GRAUWLER
PI
LAWRENCE
WELLS
PRITCHETT
MO RROW
IR
V
PARLIAMENT
S awers
P ark
R
IA
BR
LEGEND:
DNL Noise Contours
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise
Monitoring Sites
CLUB
FINLEY
RIDGE
FIELD
SEASIDE
STRAIT
THA ME
S
WILLOW
CREEK
HERRING
STOVALL
END RES
TRENT
LELA
THO MAS
LEA
ALAN
S outhwest
P ark
11TH
ARAWE
P ark
TUDOR
LINDEN
MEDINA
HELMET
LUZON
ST LO
KATHY
J AN
KONET
VE
MEA D
OW
WAY
WILLOW
LARK
HUNTER
B EA
RTH
FT WO
QUEENSWOOD
MEADOW
DOVE
ELS
BROOK
AT
ER
W
SA
N
LS
HIL
C
BULEVAR
OAKVIEW
RUSTIC
BRIERY
S
HA
DY
G RO
STILL
IL
Q UALEY
MARVEL
V AL
PLOV E
CREEK
EY INDIAN
R
ALL
QUAIL V
VILLAGE
18TH ST
MARTA
OAKDALE
CATA L I NA
HARBOR
MEADOW
RUBY
MEADOW
DALE
MEADOW GLEN
TRL
SPANISH
IRV ING
GRAN D P RAIRIE
30
T
NC
HU
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LAWNVIEW
H
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AUDELIA
AUDELIA
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SKYWAY
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161
SKYWAY
R
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BR
LEGEND:
DNL Noise Contours
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise
Monitoring Sites
CLUB
FINLEY
RIDGE
FIELD
SEASIDE
STRAIT
THA ME
S
VE
WELLS
PRITCHETT
KONET
J AN
LUZON
ST LO
KATHY
HELMET
LINDEN
MEDINA
TRENT
LELA
THO MAS
END RES
MO RROW
IR
V
PARLIAMENT
STOVALL
S awers
P ark
HERRING
WILLOW
CREEK
BULEVAR
OAKVIEW
RUSTIC
BRIERY
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HA
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STILL
IL
Q UALEY
MARVEL
V AL
PLOV E
CREEK
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ALL
QUAIL V
VILLAGE
18TH ST
MARTA
OAKDALE
CATA L I NA
HARBOR
MEADOW
RUBY
MEADOW
DALE
MEADOW GLEN
TRL
SPANISH
IRV ING
GRAN D P RAIRIE
30
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EXPRESSWAY
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May 31, 2006
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LARRY
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C ITY
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DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
GAMELAKE
LAKAWANA
FULLERTON
LAKE G ARDENS
LAKE
OAKLAND
PARKWAY
HAVEN
HALEY
KNIGHT
MEYERS
Mac ARTHUR
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ON
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 2-4 – Noise Impacts for each scenario
DNL
Contour
Level
DNL 55 dB +
DNL 60 dB +
DNL 65 dB +
DNL 70 dB +
DNL 75 dB +
Master Plan 32 Gates
20 Gates No Wright
Amendment
32 Gates No Wright
Amendment
Sq. Miles
Population
Sq. Miles
Population
Sq. Miles
Population
23.2
10.3
4.6
1.9
0.9
111,395
71,355
24,872
2,686
0
23.8
10.4
4.4
1.8
0.8
111,759
70,429
21,045
2,620
0
26.9
11.6
4.8
2.0
0.9
117,369
76,451
29,219
2,655
0
SOURCE: 2001 Love Field Master Plan Impact Analysis and DMJM Aviation, May 2006
The results document that in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario the noise impacts
surrounding the airport will decrease from those identified within the Master Plan scenario. In
the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario the noise impacts increase from those identified
within the Master Plan. The number of people affected by DNL 65+ dB noise levels is 15
percent less in the 20 gate No Wright Amendment scenario than in the Master Plan. The
affected population in the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is 18 percent greater than
the Master Plan scenario.
The ensuing sections provide further explanation of the differences between the two No Wright
Amendment scenarios and the Master Plan. Individual comparisons of the DNL 65, 60, and 55
dB noise contours of each scenario are presented in Figures 2-7 and 2-8.
2.2.5.1 Comparison: Master Plan 32 Gates versus 20 Gates No Wright Amendment
With the exception of air service characteristics, the INM input factors from the Master Plan
were used without change in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario, including percent of
nighttime air carrier operations and the number and aircraft mix of general aviation operations.
The level of air carrier operations decreased from 182,804 annual (501 daily) air carrier
operations in the Master Plan to 135,947 annual (373 daily) air carrier operations in the 20 Gate
No Wright Amendment scenario. The aircraft types changed to include more standard jets in
place of both reconfigured 56-seat jets and 50-seat regional jets. The standard jet takeoff
weights included a distribution of heavier aircraft accounting for longer nonstop stage lengths.
The DNL 65 dB noise contour for the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is approximately
4.3 percent smaller than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario and impacts approximately 3,800
fewer people.
2.2.5.2 Comparison: Master Plan 32 Gates versus 32 Gates No Wright Amendment
The INM input factors from the Master Plan were again used without change in the 32 Gate No
Wright Amendment scenario. In this scenario, the level of air carrier operations increased from
182,804 annual (501 daily) air carrier operations in the Master Plan to 190,848 annual (523
daily) air carrier operations without the Wright Amendment and with 32 gates. The types
changed to include more standard jets in place of both reconfigured 56-seat jets and 50-seat
regional jets. The standard jet takeoff weights included a distribution of heavier aircraft
accounting for longer nonstop stage lengths.
The DNL 65 dB noise contour for the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is approximately
4 percent larger in area than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario. The population within the DNL
65 dB contour increases by 4,350 people.
2-13
5/31/2006
H
SCALE: 1" = 6500'
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P ark
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North L ake
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HAM
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AN
BR
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MOSELEY
RUSDELL
PHYLLIS
AF
SHADY
PARKWOOD
MISTLEWOOD
FAIR OAKS
ELMS
CARNABY
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DRA KE
23.8
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7TH
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FT WO
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RIV
LEGEND:
Master Plan 32 Gates
with Wright Amendment
20 Gates No Wright Amendment
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise Monitoring Sites
Master Plan
32 Gates
20 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
111,395
DNL
Contour
Level
23.2
Sq. Miles Population Sq. Miles Population
55+
70,429
21,045
10.4
4.4
71,355
24,872
10.3
4.6
VICKIE
AMIN
NDY
DOAK
RMANDY
LARK
DALE
HUNTER
IRV ING
GRAN D P RAIRIE
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ELS
BROOK
AT
ER
W
SA
N
LS
HIL
C
G ALVA
MARKANNE
GRAMERCY
L LA
BA
J EF
FE RS
Comparison of Master Plan 32 Gates &
20 Gates No Wright Amendment
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SHAW
GALLAGHER
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30
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COLORADO
DON
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354
SOUTHWELL
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RIDGE
77
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77
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GLENDA
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Cro wn
P ark
LU FIELD
B RA
CRO WN
LARSON
LINDY
WISCONSIN
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12
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TRY
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P op 24,250
CROWN
LAKE
Y
635
FARMERS BRANCH
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Fo rk
G olf
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X
348
12
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PR
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AC
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RO
W
356
TRINITY
Trin ity
CANADA
Tip ton
P ark
HOMELAND
CRANE
McBROOM
DE NN
TORONTO
AMOS
ANDY
SEALE
MOBILE
SHADY
G ATE
CHAPEL
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GALLAGHER
BICKERS
NOMAS
PUEBLO
TORONTO
POLLARD
COMMERCE
WALMSEY
STAFFORD
FLANDERS
B
NO L
HIL
KNOTT
ST
AL
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NO
CALIFORNIA
RIVER
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C ITY
B EE
L IMIT
D
Winchester Gu n Club
Winchester Gu n Club
Ca lifornia
Cro ssing
P ark
TRINITY
G REEN
EN
TE
R
482
ROW
CENTURY CIR
INTERNATIONAL
RO
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TY
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PO
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PRO CTER
V IS
AVE
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CO
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CANADA
PUEBLO
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ATLANTIC
SAM DEA
LE
Y
LEATRIC
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WILLO WDALE
TRINITY VALLEY
LAKE
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HW
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T
LAKE
CAROLYN
BLVD
D ALL
AS
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RP
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114
MAUPIN
DEFRATUS
ACRES
FRANK
BOWER
FREEWAY
TORONTO
BLVD
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BARBERRY
WN
WE
OLD ORCHARD
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MARYDALE
LA
DAL
D ALLAS
C ITY LIMIT
E
ATIV
RT
114
IRV
CA
FR
EE
W
SMITH
P ark
Trin ity View
RIVER HILL
PENN
MARGIE
Texas
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HOMELAND
GALLAGHER
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C RE
NO
CK
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J
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TO
AS
PL
A
ZA
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LA
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L
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P
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356
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T
348
T AM
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183
Un ive rsity
of
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LE
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P op 155,037
RIV
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PIPESTONE
30
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14TH
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114
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LYNN
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VIRGINIA
2ND
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15TH
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PARK
LD
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IT
TO
161
CR
N
ND
LA
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GROVE
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N
REGINA
McHAM
FREEWAY
WEATHERED
ARCADY
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MEADOWBROOK
T
CRES
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ER
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North L ake
College
HAM
DOWLING
VALLEY
NELSON
DRISKILL
TT
EW
CO
LO
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P IL
GR
IM
AN
BR
HI LL
FINLEY
ADDINGTON
BURY
BRI STOL
ST
DIS
H
BELMEAD
BRIARWOOD
3RD
6T
5TH
4TH
GLENWOOD
ARROWHEAD
MOSELEY
RUSDELL
PHYLLIS
AF
SHADY
PARKWOOD
MISTLEWOOD
FAIR OAKS
ELMS
CARNABY
117,369
DRA KE
26.9
OAKS
KSIDE
DUNNING
ABBOTT
7TH
8TH
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V ILBIG
LAKE
MAC ARTHUR
G ARD
SEA ISLE
EN
TE R
FERREL
B EA
RTH
FT WO
ER
RIV
LEGEND:
Master Plan 32 Gates
with Wright Amendment
32 Gates No Wright Amendment
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise Monitoring Sites
Master Plan
32 Gates
32 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
111,395
DNL
Contour
Level
23.2
Sq. Miles Population Sq. Miles Population
55+
76,451
29,219
11.6
4.8
71,355
24,872
10.3
4.6
VICKIE
AMIN
NDY
DOAK
RMANDY
LARK
DALE
HUNTER
IRV ING
GRAN D P RAIRIE
30
QUEENSWOOD
MEADOW
DOVE
ELS
BROOK
AT
ER
W
SA
N
LS
HIL
C
G ALVA
MARKANNE
GRAMERCY
L LA
BA
J EF
FE RS
Comparison of Master Plan 32 Gates &
32 Gates No Wright Amendment
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L
May 31, 2006
GAMELAKE
RINDIE
MARKLAND
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IR
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Mac ARTHUR
CRIPPLE
FULTON
RIVERLAKE
60+
65+
DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
ROCKLAKE
IRIS
AV
IS
TR
FAIRBROOK
WEST PARK
CR
ROGERS
CLEARBROOK
W ST CLAIR
PAMELA
MAC
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WHITMAN
PEARL
SHADYLAKE
PICKWICK
MEANDERING
MIKE
JIM
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RISE
R
S TE
NEAL
RD
ON
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
2.3
Findings and Conclusions
The results of this noise impact analysis update indicate that the expected changes in future air
service, with the absence of the Wright Amendment, and 20 gates in operation at Love Field,
would result in a slight decrease in noise exposure, but essentially would be the same as what
was previously predicted in the 2001 Love Field Master Plan Impact Analysis. Increasing the
number of gates to 32 would result in an increase in noise impacts from the Master Plan 32
Gate scenario.
Table 2-5 provides an overall summary of this analysis. It contains a description of the input
data used, as well as the comparative impacts for each scenario. Figure 2-9 provides a
graphical comparison of the DNL 65 dB noise contours for each No Wright Amendment
scenario. The areas where the contours differ are shown “close-up” and can be viewed in
relation to specific streets, etc.
In terms of both the area of impact and the population estimated within each DNL noise contour,
the findings are clear.
Q The analysis indicates removal of the Wright Amendment restrictions, while increasing to 20
gates, will result in fewer noise impacts than those projected in the Master Plan.
Q If the number of gates were to increase to 32 without Wright Amendment restrictions,
additional noise impacts over those projected in the Master Plan with 32 Gates will result.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario would result in a 9 percent greater impact in
area and nearly 8,200 more people1 than that associated with the 20 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario has 41 schools located within the DNL 55 dB
and greater noise contour, while the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario has 39, as
displayed in Table 2-6.
These findings document the changes in noise exposure expected without the air service
restrictions of the Wright Amendment. In effect, 20 gates without the Wright Amendment will be
essentially the same as those projected in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario, and 32 gates
without the Wright Amendment will slightly increase those impacts.
1
Based on a comparison of the DNL 65 dB noise contour.
2-16
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 2-5: Summary of Analysis
Wright Amendment
Description
No Wright Amendment
32 Gates
INM 6.0/1990 U.S.
INM 6.1/2000 U.S.
Census
Census
Air Carrier Activity
(annual ops)
Air Carrier Activity
(daily ops)
20 Gates
32 Gates
INM 6.1/2000 U.S. Census
182,804
182,804
135,947
190,848
501
501
373
523
GA Activity & Fleet Mix*
Standard Jets (7
States)
Reconfigured Jets
(56 Seats)
Regional Jets (50
Seats)
Master Plan Forecast
Standard Jets (7
States)
Reconfigured Jets
(56 Seats)
Regional Jets (50
Seats)
Master Plan Forecast
Master Plan Forecast
Master Plan Forecast
Runway Use/Flight Tracks*
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Master Plan 2001
Noise Impact:
DNL 65 dB Area
4.8 Sq. Miles
4.6 Sq. Miles
4.4 sq. Miles
4.8 Sq. Miles
Fleet Mix/Schedule Profile
DNL 55 dB +
Square
Miles
22.3
DNL 60 dB +
DNL 65 dB +
DNL 70 dB +
DNL 75 dB +
10.4
4.8
2.2
0.9
Impact by Contour
95,533
Square
Miles
23.2
60,802
23,198
860
0
10.3
4.6
1.9
0.9
Population
Standard Jets
Longer Haul Routes
111,395
Square
Miles
23.8
71,355
24,872
2,686
0
10.4
4.4
1.8
0.8
Population
Standard Jets
Longer Haul Routes
111,759
Square
Miles
26.9
70,429
21,045
2,620
0
11.6
4.8
2.0
0.9
Population
Population
117,369
76,451
29,219
2,655
0
NOTE: The impacts for each contour include the entire area for that contour level. For example, the DNL 55 dB and above impacts includes the impacts for the DNL 60, 65, 70 and
75 dB and above contour.
2-17
5/31/2006
H
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MERCEDES
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McCOMMAS
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Dallas
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H
H
SP
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LA
RK
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AL
LE
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LE
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Pop 8,739
Park
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PARK
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POTOMAC
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STANHOPE
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Germany
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BEL FORT
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R
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TH
H
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ND
LA
VA
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VA
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M
LA
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R
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A
EC
N
SE
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C
Bluff
View
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NEWMORE
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LOVE FIELD
Polk
Park
SAVAGE
PE
EL
SP
R
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DW
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PE BO
A
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IN
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K
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IN
TO
N
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R
INSERT B
35E
77
S
AS
LE
CO
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C
AR
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IC
OP
A
NA
BA
N
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AR
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Park
MO
V
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LU
MB
AR
D
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TO
N
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SHIRLEY
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R
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H
IT
ED
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Walnut
Hill
Park
BETTER
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BA
EL
CH AP
RAN
COCH
N
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SHORECREST
ESTATES
R
LE EXF
M
O
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ON
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DAVILLA
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OR
E
H
FO
R
PA ES
RK T
ST
OR
LM
TL
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K
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H
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C
O
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D
DALLAS
LOVE
FIELD
12
L EN
T
EA
K
W IC
HA
EL
WEMDON
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MARTHA
JUNIPER
SEGUIN
MATADOR
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CLOVER
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TO
N
NE
BE
M
NMS11
Y
ON
OL
ST
W
ON A
C
N
SO
AN
ES
H
H
University of Texas
Health Science Center
at Dallas
K
LE
TURT
D
OO
ES
HA
PE
L
EV
DE
N
PL
AW
PK
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WEST NMS12
TH
UR
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H
PLANTATION
CLIFF
ST
EM
MO
NS
CR
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GES
S
ON
BR
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S
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OK
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FO
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IN
WONDERLAND
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L PRAIRIE VIEW
PA IN G
RK T O
N
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LD
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MO
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C
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W
RO
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EL
W
G
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ON
O
GD
R
H
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Park
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BASS
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M
RD
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CO
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HO
PY
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EN
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H
LT
EA
FORK
OR
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LA
KING
NW
Peter
Pan
Park
GASPAR
HIDALGO
JOYA
LINDA
PARK
MANANA
DALE
RIDGE
MARSH
LANE
RICKSHAW
HOPETOWN Betty
STABLES
WOODLEIGH
F LA
LE
EL
RID
O
IRV ING
NV
IR
V IN
G
EN
C
Crown
Hill
Cem
NMS05 FO NTA NA
NOGALES
LINDA
MANANA
BOGATA
CHAPEL
CREEK
LL
DE
RA
LARGA
O
E
M
CO
QUAKER
LENNOX
LE
EL
RID
SH
TON
H
PR
N
LA
LD
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OO
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R
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R
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BU
N
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K
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BR
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CLOVE
OM
DAVILA SLEE
C
RIVER
Park
D
C
NMS03ILA
AN
GASPAR
FO NTA NA
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CORTEZ
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BOLIVAR
W
S
C
NA
VA
N
J AM ISO
LE
EL
HA
PE
L
AR
E
QU
DALE CREST
ICH
RW
HA
Y
W
FR
T
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CR
D
RI
RO
NT
CE
ANGELINA
BUSHIRE
S DINES
LEJAR
ST
RE
N
CAMELOT
HIRE
DAR BYS
VALIANT
GAL AHAD
SS
NORCRO
PRINCESS
OT
LAN CEL
DUCHESS
REGENT
LEC
S
HINE
LE
C
EL
MOOR
DA
Y
HARR
MAYBANK
DA
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RY H
L
EL
North
Hampton
Park
G
DROP
AL
ALTMAN
MERRELL
W
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NE
N
HA WOODWIND
OR
YM
C
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SE
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CARRIZO
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CHA PEL
PONDER
VIEW
TIM BER
VE
NE
N
CIT ATIO
TIA
N
AY
WHIRL AW
PLAUDIT
DARVANY
LOCKMOOR
NEWCASTLE
LA
Calvary
Hill
Cemetery
KINKAID
PARK
BYNUM
T IM
RL
IN
E
CRE EK
BE
LA
KE
HT
BAC HM
D EN
FT WORTH
DALE
PARK
MANANA
LINDA
Royal Park
Greenbelt
CALYPSO
TR ON
VIRGO
DAIRY
MILK
MERRELL
LADYBIRD
CONGRESSMAN
ANODE
DORIC
CENTURY
BLYSTONE
REWARD
354
NAGLE
VE
R
NMS06
O
ST
AR
L IG
Park
BACHMAN
LAKE
INSERT A
35E
JA
M
ES
77
LINDA
MANANA
BOGATA
D
RA
LARGA
O
EV
ES
AR MS
TON
NS
MO
EM
ST
H AR
UE
NQ
LE
EL
RE
ON
MM
LE
ES
ls
CARAWAY
NOGALES
CROMWELL
LE
ST
C A A TE
G
Danie
HILL
BENNER
ANDJON
Forest
Lawn
Cemetery
WALNUT
NMS04
FREEWOOD
MYRTLE SPRINGS
Dallas City Cem
LOMBARDY
WILLOWBROOK
12
DENNIS
EB
JULIAN T SALDIVAR ELEMENTARY
B
LA
D
RI
LA
EI
SH
EY
BR
AU
354
SOUTHWELL
WALNUT
RIDGE
Y
RE
PROGRAM
O
Trinity River
Green Belt
Park
ON
FABENS
FIELD
GLENDA
MERRELL
35E
77
35E
77
ST
D EN
12
LIMIT
482
CENTURY CIR
INDIAN
DAVID G. BURNET ELEMENTARY
CREEK
DALE CREST
ROW
LEO
MANANA
JOE
ROYAL
HW
Y
114
Y
D AM
TANTOR
TH W
EST
348
CROSSING
PARK
Y
CIT
Texas
Stadium
RO
YALT
INTERNATION AL
RE
CO
GN
IT IO
N
GEMINI
JOYA
LA
FRANCISCO F (PANCHO) MEDRANO MIDDLE
SCHOOL
CHAPEL
DUNHA
HIDALGO
ROY BENAVIDEZ ELEMENTARY
KINKAID
PARK
BYNUM
RY
RYAN
N OR
CALIFORNIA
RIVER
BELT
ANODE
REWARD
BLYSTONE
CENTURY
DORIC
B
KE
ER
LI
NE
CREEK
TI
M
V
ROYAL CHAPEL
EI
SS
TOLLWAY
H AR
ter Gun Club
ster Gun Club
California
Crossing
TRINITY
GREEN
AY
CITY
FR
EE
W
NEWKIRK
CONGRESSMAN
M TE
XA
TO
PL
S
AZ
A
NORTHGATE
CA
RP
EN
TE
R
DALL
AS
I RVING
W
ANDJON
BENNER
354
N AGLE
O
ER
LA
C
AN
W
LA SALLE
DOUGLAS
E
AL
LEGEND:
20 Gates No Wright Amendment
32 Gates No Wright Amendment
Neighborhoods
Municipal Boundary
Hospitals
Churches
Schools
Airport Noise Monitoring Sites
RESULTS - DNL 65 dB +
32 Gate
No Wright
Amendment
190,848
20 Gate
No Wright
Amendment
135,947
DNL 65 dB
Contour
Air Carrier
(annual ops)
151,196
4.8
151,196
4.4
29,219
GA ( MP
annual ops)
21,045
FREEWOOD
MYRTLE SPRINGS
LOMBARDY
WILLOWBROOK
12
S
T
AR
LI
G
HT
B AC HM
BACHMAN
LAKE
RN
S
ON
ER
SC
HE
L
LA
UG
O
D
O
EA
R
TO
G
AN
N
R
EL
BO
NORTH
PR
ES
H
KM
C
AV
NE
OR
TH
CO
TT
W
LOMA
O
D
W
NN
A
MA
HA
AW
HE
EL
ER
RA
LE
IG
H
DALLAS
MIDWAY
ES
ND
Comparison of DNL 65dB for each
No Wright Amendment Scenario
R
C
REEDER
INSERT A
WORCOLA
WORCOLA
SUMMIT
ROLAND
TH
MA
PLE
G
S
PS
ON
R
A
EL CE
M
H
N
VE
RS
VE
AI
RS
LL
ES
D AIL
O
RO LES
M
TH
IL
ES Y
WESTSIDE
S
AR
ED
C
IE
W
HA
EN
A
OW
R
GLENCOE
PRENTICE
EUCLID
BOEDEKER
N
KI
CLEBURNE
NT
RA
L
CE
DUBLIN
LANERI
WILLARD
MCMILLAN
IN
IA
G
O
AK
OR
E
VIR
SY
C
AM
RU
TC
HE
R
C
SIM
UN
GE
R
M
FU
Q
UA
C
HA
ON
M
AR
CH BER
S
SS
O
R
M
TO
IN
M
ER
LIV
E
G
IU BIR AST
S
D O
N
JU
N
JA
C
SA
N
US
SB
AU
N
OR
TH
W
DURHAM
LENNOX
AG
ED
H
REMINGTON
H
AR
C
EPPING
EL
L
HOMER
B
ON RY
VE AN
NT
C
BB
TH
OR
N
C
HILLCREST
FREEWAY
STEMMONS
AW
H
O
R
AN
M
AT
W
HE
RR
YW
LS
O
O
O
G
N
D
ER
O
W
O
HURSEY
AL
L
C
AUBURNDALE
SCHOOL
HIGH
DICKENS
KEY
UD
N
ET
T
MT VERNON
H
M
G
ILA
M
AL
CO
TT
HO
ME
R
M
M
IS
AN
S IO
ET
N
T
OR
M
AN
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OR
D
W
AK
SE
O
CAMBRIDGE
ON
CREEK
GOLF
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HIN
AP
IT
PE
RS
AN
M
C
SW
AY
M
R
US
D
LA
K
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FA
C
RE
D
AB
YE
EL
EL
TT
AN
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AY
O
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R
VE
LI
LA
ND
O
AUBURNDALE
EX
PR
M
TT
BO
AB
CE
NT
RAL
AT
T
V IS
TA
RA
FL
O
JA
CIN
TO
W
LE
A
EN
BU
LO
T
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CO
SS
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R
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OB
L
N
NE
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N
G OB
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O
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H
O
W
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L
SNIDER
BU
TL
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OXFORD
W
PE
R
CO
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JOH
NS
ST
DR EX
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BY
R
TU
RT
LE
FAIRFIELD
EN
WO
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GL
MC
K IN
AK
TE
W
RE
ST
V
ER
SA
DL
SE
Y
KI
M
TZ
ST
U
FAIRFIELD
JO
HN
S
ST
LA SALLE
SH AN
EL
H OW LAN
L
D
N
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CR
CR
EE
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RL
LE LE
DE
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H
CEDAR
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A
DOUGLAS
AR
LE
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CA
O
C
LA
C
RN
OL
F
TU
RT
LE
HI
TA
IC
SPRINGS
W
AV
EN
ID
AK
O
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O
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LE
SA
OU
GL
AS
LA
W
N
SC
ER
D
OR
EA
TO
GA
N
N
R
EL
BO
W
HU
PA
NT
YN
E
W
OL
BY
C
THROCKMORTON
BLVD
QUINCY
ROYAL
WAY
DARIA
ALTO
BO
M
PRESTON
WESTWICK
TURTLE
WESTCHESTER
DOUGLAS
DA
LE
McCRAW
MEADOWBROOK
GREENWAY
HATHAWAY
EASTE RN
ROLAND
LOMA
HE
L
TOLLW AY
ALTO
H
ALVA
NORTH
LOMA
H
AW
PR
TH
ES
CO
OR
TT
NE
SH
EL
TH
R
OC
KM
BY
W GREENWAY
R
AL
EIG
H
S
LA
WN
K
OA
ISO
N
ED
F
YC
LIF
DO
W
FO
RD
YC
E
DEVONSHIRE
WALLER
CHADBOURNE
PARK
INWOOD
INWOOD
MENIER
ROBIN
RR
EY
HM
AN
B AC
C
ON
H
R
AR
PA CE
EX
PR
ES
S
HA
RV
ES
TE
R
DALLAS
SA
R
VE
MA
HA
RN
AL
L
E GREENWAY
PRESTON
HE
EL
ER
W
R
BRO
ARROKEN
W
INWOOD
AIL
LE
IL
S
LE
OT S
ES HY
WESTSIDE
IL
M
OR
D
NN
A
VE
S
AR
H
AW
TH
O
VA
D
G
OU
AS
GL
AS
KN
IG
HT
MA
PLE
GS
KIN
TYREE
OA
STRAIT
BRIARWOOD
STARLING
HORSESHOE
RE
ST
VI
EW
PROSPER
MANU FAC
TUR ING
LU
OY C A
O S
VICTORIA
GA
R
ROBIN
N
LINWOOD
SH
A
KAYWOOD
TRAVIDA
SU
MORTON
C
ED
N
N
SU
YB
RO
OK
O
DY
W
BRUTUS
MA
N
AL AN
DA LE
LINWOOD
LOCKHEED
EL
L
W
AT
ORIOLE
CAILLET
WOODFORD
N CH
B RA
OOK
KB R
R OC
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DARIEN
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BETTY JANE
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May 31, 2006
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Land Area Impacts
(sq. miles)
Estimated Population
(Preliminary results)
DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
SHADY
ON
J AMIS
N
TO
ING
RR
FA
ON
UM
OC
SL
MO
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 2-6: Schools within the Noise Contours
Schools within Noise Contours – 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
Contour
Interval
DNL 70
DNL 65
DNL 60
DNL 55
School Name
Obadiah Knight Elementary
Roy Benavidez Elementary
Maple Lawn Elementary
Francisco F Medrano Middle School
Thomas J. Rusk Middle School
Dallas County Schools
Onesimo Hernandez Elementary
Holy Trinity Catholic School
Honors Academy Charter School
Sam Houston Elementary
Medrano Elementary
K. B. Polk Elementary
Julian T Saldivar Elementary
William B. Travis Elementary
William B. Travis Middle
UT Southwestern Medical Center North
David G. Burnet Elementary
Callier Center For Deaf
City Park Elementary
Community Education Partners
Criswell College
Billy Dade Elementary
Dallas Can! Academy Charter (Moved)
Dallas Day School
Dallas High School
Dallas Theological Seminary
District D District Office
Tom W. Field Elementary
First Baptist Academy
Daniel "Chappie" James Learning Center
James Madison High School
Middle College
North Dallas High School
Notre Dame School
Pegasus Charter H S
Irma Young Rangel Women's Leadership
J. W. Ray Elementary
Alex W. Spence Middle School
Texas A&M HSC/Baylor College Dent
UT Southwestern Medical Center
Booker T Washington High School
2-19
Address
CITY
2615 Anson Rd.
Wheelock St
3120 Inwood Rd.
Wheelock St
2929 Inwood Rd
2455 Rentzel St
5555 Maple Ave.
3815 Oak Lawn Ave
4300 Macarthur Ave
2827 Throckmorton St.
2221 Lucas Dr
6911 Victoria Ave.
9510 Brockbank Dr.
3001 Mckinney Ave
3001 Mckinney Ave
6000 Harry Hines Blvd
3200 Kinkaid Dr.
3700 Ross Ave
1738 Gano St.
4711 Harry Hines Blvd
4010 Gaston
2801 Park Row Ave
2601 Live Oak
4242 Office Pkwy
2215 Bryan St
3909 Swiss Ave
3700 Ross Ave
2151 Royal Ln.
1704 Patterson
1718 Robert B Cullum Blvd
3000 Martin Luther King Blvd.
3700 Ross Ave
3120 N. Haskell Ave.
2018 Allen
2121 Main Street Suite 200
3801 Herschel Ave
2211 Caddo St.
4001 Capitol Ave
3302 Gaston Ave
5323 Harry Hines Blvd
2501 Flora St
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Highland Park
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
ZIP
Code
75235
75220
75235
75220
75235
75220
75235
75219
75209
75219
75219
75209
75220
75204
75204
75235
75220
75204
75215
75235
75204
75215
75204
75204
75201
75204
75204
75229
75201
75210
75215
75204
75204
75204
75201
75219
75204
75204
75246
75235
75201
5/31/2006
Noise Impact Analysis for Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Schools within Noise Contours – 20 Gate No Wright Amendment
DNL
Contour
Interval
70
65
60
55
School Name
Obadiah Knight Elementary
Roy Benavidez Elementary
Maple Lawn Elementary
Francisco F Medrano Middle School
Thomas J. Rusk Middle School
Onesimo Hernandez Elementary
Honors Academy Charter School
Sam Houston Elementary
K. B. Polk Elementary
Irma Young Rangel Women's Leadership
Julian T. Saldivar Elementary
David G. Burnet Elementary
Callier Center For Deaf
Community Education Partners
Criswell College
Billy Dade Elementary
Dallas Can! Academy Charter (Moved)
Dallas County Schools
Dallas Day School
Dallas High School
Dallas Theological Seminary
District D District Office
Tom W. Field Elementary
First Baptist Academy
Holy Trinity Catholic School
James Madison High School
Medrano Elementary
Middle College
North Dallas High School
Notre Dame School
Pegasus Charter H S
J. W. Ray Elementary
Alex W. Spence Middle School
Texas A&M Hsc/Baylor Collg Dent
William B. Travis Elementary
William B. Travis Middle
UT Southwestern Medical Center
UT Southwestern Medical Center North
Booker T Washington High School
2-20
Address
CITY
2615 Anson Rd.
Wheelock St
3120 Inwood Rd.
Wheelock St
2929 Inwood Rd
5555 Maple Ave.
4300 Macarthur Ave
2827 Throckmorton St.
6911 Victoria Ave.
3801 Herschel Ave
9510 Brockbank Dr.
3200 Kinkaid Dr.
3700 Ross Ave
4711 Harry Hines Blvd
4010 Gaston
2801 Park Row Ave
2601 Live Oak
2455 Rentzel St
4242 Office Pkwy
2215 Bryan St
3909 Swiss Ave
3700 Ross Ave
2151 Royal Ln.
1704 Patterson
3815 Oak Lawn Ave
3000 Martin Luther King Blvd.
2221 Lucas Dr
3700 Ross Ave
3120 N. Haskell Ave.
2018 Allen
2121 Main Street Suite 200
2211 Caddo St.
4001 Capitol Ave
3302 Gaston Ave
3001 Mckinney Ave
3001 Mckinney Ave
5323 Harry Hines Blvd
6000 Harry Hines Blvd
2501 Flora St
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
ZIP
Code
Highland Park
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
Dallas
75235
75220
75235
75220
75235
75235
75209
75219
75209
75219
75220
75220
75204
75235
75204
75215
75204
75220
75204
75201
75204
75204
75229
75201
75219
75215
75219
75204
75204
75204
75201
75204
75204
75246
75204
75204
75235
75235
75201
5/31/2006
Section 3
Roadway Traffic Impacts
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 3—TRAFFIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
3.1
Introduction
3.1.1 Background
The basis for a roadway traffic analysis update is the activity forecasts presented in Section 1,
“Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love Field in Absence of the Wright Amendment.” This section
presents an updated traffic evaluation based on projected annual enplanements and other data
for the 20 and 32 gate terminal development scenarios.
3.1.2 Purpose
As part of the effort to evaluate impacts associated with the No Wright Amendment scenarios,
the variations in impacts to selected near-by roadway intersections have been evaluated and
compared with the results from the Master Plan. The selected intersections evaluated, as
coordinated with the City during the Master Plan, are as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Mockingbird Lane at the I-35 Southbound Frontage Road
Mockingbird Lane at the I-35 Northbound Frontage Road
Mockingbird Lane at Cedar Springs Road
Mockingbird Lane at Airdrome
Mockingbird Lane at Lemmon Avenue
Mockingbird Lane at Inwood Road
Mockingbird Lane at Southbound Dallas North Tollway
Mockingbird Lane at Northbound Dallas North Tollway
Lemmon Avenue at Inwood Road
Lemmon Avenue at Airdrome
Lemmon Avenue at University Boulevard
Lemmon Avenue at Lovers Lane
3.1.3 Methodology
The methods defined in the Highway Capacity Manual for signalized intersections have been
used, based on projected am and pm peak hour traffic turning movement volumes that combine
airport and non-airport related traffic.
3.2
Technical Discussion
The variations in traffic impacts are projected, based on the difference in vehicular activity
associated with the anticipated change in the nature of air service at Love Field without the
Wright Amendment restrictions. The air service analysis estimates the change in enplaning
passengers from the Master Plan for the year 2020 as given in Table 3-1. The other anticipated
shift due to removal of the Wright Amendment restrictions is an increase in the percentage of
passengers that would connect between flights at Love Field, instead of starting or ending their
air trip in the Dallas area. The connecting ratio is assumed to grow from the 19 percent
assumed in the Master Plan to 25 percent. Alternatively, the “origin/destination” (O/D)
passengers, who would be using the ground access facilities, would decrease from 81 percent
to 75 percent. This effect is also shown in Table 3-1, with the result that the number of O/D
passengers would increase slightly between the Master Plan scenario and the 20 Gate
scenario, and increase significantly for the 32 Gate scenario. However, since all the O/D activity
3-1
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
for the 20 Gate scenario would be at the main terminal, the projected traffic flows using the main
airport entrance on Cedar Springs Road would be slightly higher than those for the Master Plan
scenario, while the traffic along Lemmon Avenue, where 6 of the 32 Gates are located, would
decrease.
Table 3-1: Development of Projected Traffic Ratios Relative to the Master Plan
Master Plan
20 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
32 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
Enplanements
(million) in 2020
5.54
6.16
8.76
O/D Ratio
81%
75%
75%
Originating Pax
(million) in 2020
4.49
4.62
6.57
Traffic Ratio
-
1.03
1.46
These traffic ratios have been used to factor the projected airport related vehicular traffic used in
the Master Plan to generate airport traffic for the No Wright Amendment scenarios. This airport
traffic, including the proportionate turning movements at each intersection, was combined with
the same non-airport traffic movements as used in the Master Plan analyses, which had been
developed from analyses of the NCTCOG1 regional forecasts for 2020 and historical turning
movement counts. The resulting traffic flow projections during the am and pm peak hours for the
Average Weekday of the Peak Month are depicted in Figures 3-1 and 3-2, for the 20 and 32
Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios, respectively.
The resulting Levels of Service (LOS) at the selected intersections are shown in Figure 3-3,
comparing the prior Master Plan 32 Gate results with the results for the 20 and 32 Gate No
Wright Amendment scenarios. These assume that the intersection improvements identified in
the Master Plan are implemented.
City defined improvements that had been planned prior to the Master Plan (1999) were:
Q Mockingbird at Cedar Springs – increase southeast and southwest curb radii
Q Mockingbird, Airdrome to Denton – add westbound lane from Airdrome to Cedar Springs
and Cedar Springs to Denton – median improvements
Q Mockingbird at Airdrome – geometric improvements
Q Mockingbird at Lemmon – add northbound (Lemmon) dual left-turn, increase northwest
corner radius
Q Lemmon at Inwood – dual left turns for all approaches, right-turn lanes for eastbound,
westbound, and northbound, improve all corner radii
Q Mockingbird at Inwood – westbound dual left turn, southbound right turn lane, increase
southbound and northbound left turn storage, improve all corner radii
Q Lemmon, Airdrome to Bluffview – add southbound lane, add two northbound lanes from
Airdrome to University, add one northbound lane from University to Bluffview, geometric
improvements, signal upgrades
1
North Central Texas Council of Governments
3-2
5/31/2006
Legend
St
ey
or
.
Ln
R
ow
H
rth
we
st
Dr
.
y.
Hw
on
Lovers Ln.
840(2180)
117
0(90
0)
e
Av
University Blvd.
Mockingbird Ln.
N
Dallas
Love Field
C
ed
ar
m
Le
on
m
Sp
ir n
gs
Dallas North
Tollway
e.
Av
Av
e.
R
d.
O
MM
LE
ton
No
Bachman
Lake
H
D en
ar
ry
in
es
re
pi a l
r
E m ent
C
Mockingbird
B
l
vd
.
m
al
m
eg
18
3
R
SH
I-35 E
AIRDROME Dr.
AIRDROME Dr.
M
ap
le
Figure 3-1
.
2020 Peak Hour Traffic Forecasts 20 Gates
Preston Rd.
Le
2020 AM(PM) Peak Hour
May 31, 2006
Rd
.
d
oo
w
In
5
I-3
000(000)
DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
Ln
.
e.
Av
Legend
St
or
ey
.
Ln
ow
H
a
Le
S
m
m
on
gs
Lovers Ln.
University Blvd.
Mockingbird Ln.
1040(2620)
11 8
0( 94
0)
N
Dallas
Love Field
C
e
d
ar
pr
in
Tollway
Dallas North
e.
Av
e.
Av
R
d.
O
MM
LE
ton
on
i
Dr
.
y.
Hw
st
we
rth
No
Bachman
Lake
H
De n
rry
ne
s
d.
re
pi al
r
Em e n t
C
Mockingbird
Bl
v
m
5
R
al
eg
m
R
SH
18
3
I-35 E
AIRDROME Dr.
AIRDROME Dr.
M
l
ap
e
Figure 3-2
e.
Av
2020 Peak Hour Traffic Forecasts 32 Gates
Preston Rd.
Le
2020 AM(PM) Peak Hour
May 31, 2006
d.
R
oo
d
w
In
I-3
000(000)
DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
Ln
.
e.
Av
C
C
C
C
B
C
B
C
.
Ln
R
ow
No
rth
we
st
B
C
on
Dallas
Love Field
e.
Av
Ce
d
ar
C
C
D
D
C
C
Sp
r
in
gs
Rd
.
e.
Av
C
F
on
m
m
Le
C
D
Dallas North
Tollway
B
C
B
C
y.
Hw
m
m
Le
Bachman
Lake
Den
to
n
H
Dr.
ar
ry
H
in
es
B
l
vd
.
re
pi al
Em entr
C
Mockingbird
I-35 E
C
D
C
D
C
D
C
D
Lovers Ln.
B
E
University Blvd.
Mockingbird Ln.
Preston Rd.
ey
or
St
B
C
al
eg
R
SH
18
3
M
2020 32 GATES NO WRIGHT
AMENDMENT LEVELS OF SERVICE
2020 20 GATES NO WRIGHT
AMENDMENT LEVELS OF SERVICE
2020 MASTER PLAN LEVELS OF
SERVICE
C
C
5
I-3
AM
PM
AM
PM
AM
le
ap
PM
May 31, 2006
R
d.
In
w
oo
d
Legend
A
A
A
A
A
A
DALLAS LOVE FIELD
IMPACT ANALYSIS UPDATE
Ln
.
B
D
A
B
C
F
A
B
A
B
C
C
B
D
C
C
C
D
B
D
C
D
B
F
D
F
C
D
D
F
E
F
D
F
Figure 3-3
2020 Levels of Service
e.
Av
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Additional improvements defined as part of the 2001 Master Plan were:
Q Mockingbird and Cedar Springs – grade separation and signalization of the southbound to
eastbound and eastbound to northbound left turns
Q Mockingbird at I-35 northbound – add northbound and westbound right turn lanes with
acceleration lanes
Q Lemmon at Inwood – add acceleration lane for eastbound right-turn
Q Lemmon at Lovers Lane – add southbound dual left turn and acceleration lane for
westbound right-turn
Levels of service (LOS) represent varying levels of traffic congestion and are defined in
accordance with the Highway Capacity Manual based on the amount of average delay per
vehicle at an intersection, as follows:
LOS A – Delay per vehicle less than 10 seconds.
LOS B – Delay per vehicle between 10 and 20 seconds.
LOS C – Delay per vehicle between 20 and 35 seconds.
LOS D – Delay per vehicle between 35 and 55 seconds.
LOS E – Delay per vehicle between 55 and 80 seconds.
LOS F – Delay per vehicle greater than 80 seconds.
A more detailed assessment of the performance of the intersections is given in Figures
3-4 and 3-5, in which the calculated delays are shown for am and pm peak hour conditions, by
intersection, for the scenarios, relative to the LOS thresholds.
This shows slightly worse results for the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario, compared
with the Master Plan 32 Gate, but significantly worse performance for the 32 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario. For the 20 Gate scenario, one intersection, Mockingbird at Airdrome, is
worse than the Master Plan, going from LOS D in the pm peak hour to LOS E. The uniformly
poor performance at Mockingbird and Inwood during the pm peak hour is due to the constraints
that prevent needed improvements at this intersection.
Figures 3-6 and 3-7 present similar information, but the results assume that only the City
defined improvements are made, except for the City defined improvements at Lemmon and
Inwood, since community opposition for the improvements at this intersection has cancelled
plans for implementation. A comparison of Figures 3-4 through 3-7 highlights the importance
of making the improvements recommended in the Master Plan, and that poor conditions will
result from abandoning the Lemmon at Inwood plans.
3-6
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 3-4
DAL Intersection Delays and LOS - AM Peak Hour in 2020
With City 1999 Planned Improvements and Master Plan Recommended Improvements
200
Lemmon
180
KEY
I-35
12
1
Lovers
2
140
3
4
11
10
University
Mockingbird Cedar Springs
5
Cedar Spring
Delay per Vehicle, seconds
160
120
Inwood
100
Level of
Service
6
9
7
8
DNT
F
80
E
60
D
40
C
20
B
A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Intersection
Master Plan
NWA-20 Gates
3-7
NWA-32 Gates
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 3-5
DAL Intersection Delays and LOS - PM Peak Hour in 2020
With City 1999 Planned Improvements and Master Plan Recommended Improvements
Lemmon
200
KEY
I-35
180
12
1
Lovers
2
140
3
4
Cedar Spring
Delay per Vehicle, seconds
160
9
11
10
University
Mockingbird Cedar Springs
5
120
Inwood
100
6
Level of
Service
7
8
DNT
F
80
E
60
D
40
C
20
B
A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Intersection
Master Plan
NWA-20 Gates
3-8
NWA-32 Gates
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 3-6
DAL Intersection Delays and LOS - AM Peak Hour in 2020
With Only the City 1999 Planned Improvements (Except Lemmon at Inwood)
400
Lemmon
I-35
350
12
1
300
Lovers
2
3
4
Cedar Spring
Delay per Vehicle, seconds
KEY
9
11
10
University
Mockingbird Cedar Springs
5
250
Inwood
200
6
7
8
DNT
Level of
Service
150
F
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Intersection
Master Plan
NWA-20 Gates
3-9
NWA-32 Gates
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 3-7
DAL Intersection Delays and LOS - PM Peak Hour in 2020
With Only the City 1999 Planned Improvements (Except Lemmon at Inwood)
400
Lemmon
12
1
Lovers
2
300
3
4
11
10
University
Mockingbird Cedar Springs
5
250
Cedar Spring
Delay per Vehicle, seconds
KEY
I-35
350
Inwood
200
6
9
7
8
DNT
Level of
Service
150
F
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Intersection
Master Plan
NWA-20 Gates
3-10
NWA-32 Gates
5/31/2006
Roadway Traffic Impacts at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
3.3
Findings and Conclusions
If the number of terminal gates at the airport is increased to 20, the potential traffic impacts
are essentially the same as those defined in the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario. This
requires improvements at a number of intersections, as defined in the Master Plan and
repeated above in Section 3.2, in order to provide acceptable traffic levels of service. If
any of the proposed improvements are not made, poor performance at the affected
intersections will occur. In particular, the improvements at Mockingbird Lane and Cedar
Springs Road (at the entrance to the airport) will be needed, probably soon after the
removal of the Wright Amendment restrictions.
On the other hand, under the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario, much more
extensive intersection modifications and road widening than had been defined in the
Master Plan would be needed to accommodate the growth with acceptable levels of
service.
5/31/2006
3-11
Section 4
Air Quality Analysis
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 4—AIR QUALITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
4.1
Introduction
4.1.1 Background
The basis for this air quality analysis update is Section 1 “Forecast of Activity at Dallas Love
Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment”, in which realistic air carrier schedules were
developed for the long term use of two gate scenarios: 20 and 32 gates.
4.1.2 Purpose
The purpose of this air quality analysis update is to assess the impacts that would occur under
the expected future air service scenarios in the absence of the Wright Amendment, and
compare those impacts to the Love Field Master Plan Impact Analysis published in March 2001.
The following sections provide an overview of the methodology, assumptions and findings of the
analysis.
4.1.3 Methodology
The air quality results for this study were developed using the most updated version of the
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS), Version 4.4. The EDMS is used to
estimate the total annual amount of emissions from aircraft, support vehicles and on-airport
vehicles based upon the calculation of total fuel burned. The FAA requires that EDMS be used
for airport air quality analyses.
The air quality results produced for the original 2001 Master Plan Impact Analysis were modeled
using EDMS Version 3.2. This updated analysis used EDMS 4.4, the EPA and FAA’s most
current version, to model each of the scenarios. The EDMS Version 4.4 incorporates several
new enhancements including new data that changed the emission coefficients of several
aircraft, as well as the addition of several new engines and aircraft types. The new model also
calculates emission factors for the following pollutants: Total Hydrocarbons (THC), NonMethane Hydrocarbons (NMHC), Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) and Particulate Matter
(PM2.5).
In order to maintain consistency between all gate scenarios, the 2001 Master Plan input data
was entered into EDMS Version 4.4 and reprocessed to update the results using this enhanced
version of the model. The reprocessing of this data slightly altered the results previously
reported in the Master Plan Impact Analysis; however, the results are in accordance with
today’s standards for air quality modeling and allow for a more accurate and fair comparison
with the two new gate scenarios.
The methodology used for this air quality evaluation followed very closely the methodology used
for the 2001 Master Plan. Annual emissions were calculated in metric tons for several
pollutants based upon the annual aircraft operations, operation of ground support equipment
and aircraft auxiliary power units, and from vehicles driving or parking on the airport property.
Unlike the 2001 Master Plan, no calculation of emissions was made for traffic at off airport
intersections. All of the assumptions used in the 2001 air quality analysis were carried over into
this analysis including the previously used year 2010 vehicle fleet to provide a more direct
comparison to the analysis conducted for the Master Plan. Ground vehicles emissions were also
calculated using the Mobile 5a option to compare to the 2001 Master Plan analysis.
4-1
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
4.1.4 Dallas County Air Quality Status
Dallas County is listed by the EPA on their web site as being in the 8-hour Ozone Nonattainment area, Subpart 2 Moderate, as shown in Figure 4-1. Ozone is the only pollutant that
Dallas County is in non-attainment for national air quality standards.
Figure 4-1: EPA Designation of Ozone Non-attainment Areas in Texas
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has air quality monitoring sites that
record the quantities of several air pollutants in Dallas County. The TCEQ data is available on
their web site and they calculate the Air Quality Index for Dallas County. The Air Quality Index
(AQI) is defined by federal regulations relative to National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS).
4-2
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 4-1 Dallas County Air Quality Index for July 2005
DATE
1-Jul-2005
2-Jul-2005
3-Jul-2005
4-Jul-2005
5-Jul-2005
6-Jul-2005
7-Jul-2005
8-Jul-2005
9-Jul-2005
10-Jul-2005
11-Jul-2005
12-Jul-2005
13-Jul-2005
14-Jul-2005
15-Jul-2005
16-Jul-2005
17-Jul-2005
18-Jul-2005
19-Jul-2005
20-Jul-2005
21-Jul-2005
22-Jul-2005
23-Jul-2005
24-Jul-2005
25-Jul-2005
26-Jul-2005
27-Jul-2005
28-Jul-2005
29-Jul-2005
30-Jul-2005
31-Jul-2005
0 - 50
51-100
101-150
151-200
201-300
301+
Carbon
Carbon
Ozone 8-hr Ozone 8-hr Monoxide Monoxide
AQI
ppb
AQI
ppm
42
116
42
39
69
124
34
85
85
64
109
92
61
116
100
69
27
34
39
36
43
59
66
41
32
36
31
39
111
100
69
54
91
54
50
72
94
44
78
78
70
88
81
69
91
84
72
35
43
50
46
55
68
71
52
41
46
40
50
89
84
72
6
6
6
5
6
7
10
10
8
7
6
6
7
6
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.0
0
3
5
5
5
5
3
5
3
5
7
8
5
0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.0
Sulfur
Dioxide
AQI
Sulfur
Dioxide
ppb
PM-2.5
AQI
PM-2.5
ug/m3
1
2
13
20
3
1
1
3
1
2
2
2
2
1
3
1
4
2
6
5
3
4
2
2
6
7
3
4
3
3
4
1
2
9
13
2
0
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
1
4
4
2
3
1
1
4
5
2
3
2
2
3
32
72
52
45
27
35
45
56
61
58
63
59
48
39
30
37
23
32
42
39
35
41
32
26
47
57
28
36
47
60
62
9.8
26.0
16.2
13.9
8.4
10.7
13.9
18.2
20.3
19.1
21.6
19.5
14.7
11.9
9.2
11.4
7.1
9.9
12.8
12.0
10.9
12.5
10.0
8.0
14.6
18.3
8.6
11.1
14.5
20.3
20.8
GOOD
MODERATE
UNHEALTHY for sensitive groups
UNHEALTHY
VERY UNHEALTHY
HAZARDOUS
As shown in Table 4-1, Dallas County exceeded the NAAQS standard for average 8-hour ozone
concentrations of 84 ppb for 5 days in July 2005 achieving an AQI of Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups. The data also shows that the maximum AQI for Carbon Monoxide (CO) was only a 10
and the maximum AQI for Sulfur Dioxide (SOx) was only a 20. The TCEQ web site did not
report PM10 concentration but does report PM2.5 concentrations. The July 2005 data, as
shown in Table 4-1, indicated that on 11 days the PM2.5 concentrations did reach the AQI of
Moderate. The highest 24 hour average concentration on July 2, 2005 was 26 micrograms per
4-3
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
cubic meter of air, which is far below the NAAQS of 65 micrograms per cubic meter. Fine
particulate matter is of concern as a matter of air quality pollution but it is not likely that Dallas
County will reach non attainment at the current NAAQS.
Ozone attainment is a goal of Dallas County and emissions from the operations of Dallas Love
Field are contributing factors. However aircraft and vehicles do not emit ozone directly as a
pollutant. Ozone is naturally formed each day from sunlight acting upon the nitrous oxides and
volatile organic compounds in the air. Aircraft and vehicles burning fuels such as gasoline,
diesel, and kerosene jet fuel do emit nitrous oxides (NOx) and VOCs. Ozone formation rate is
sensitive to the NOx/VOC ratio, but the largest contributor of aircraft and vehicles to the
formation of ozone is the NOx emissions. In most situations, the reduction of NOx emissions is
the primary goal in reducing concentrations of ozone pollution.
Based upon the actual general aviation and business aircraft flights for March 2006 and the
actual OAG April 2006 schedule of airline flights, a 2006 baseline estimate of annual emissions
from the airport was generated using the Master Plan assumptions of GSE. The analysis
produced the data using EDMS 4.4 which is presented in Table 4-2 below:
Table 4-2 2006 Baseline Airport Emissions (tons/year)
Aircraft
GSE/AP
Traffic
Total
Nitrous
Oxides
Carbon
Monoxides
Hydrocarbons
Volatile Organic
Compounds
Sulfur
Dioxide
Particulate
Matter 10
Particulate
Matter 2.5
315.1
9.9
32.0
357.0
551
151
278
979
85.7
6.2
24.6
116.5
91.3
5.9
23.3
120.5
27.8
1.9
0.2
29.9
2.19
0.90
1.14
4.23
2.19
0.87
0.17
3.77
The emissions calculated for 2006 using the new EDMS 4.4 are lower in emissions for each
pollutant except sulfur dioxide than what was reported for 2000 in the Master Plan document.
Most of the improvements are credited to newer less polluting vehicles, the Master Plan forecast
of reduced GSE usage, and the new emission factors used in the new EDMS model. There
were no reductions in the number of aircraft or vehicles.
Overall, emissions generated from the Dallas Love Field airport on an annual basis are a very
small contributor to the overall emissions affecting air quality in Dallas County. Nitrous Oxides
and VOCs are the only emissions that the airport contributes that are precursors to ozone
formation. Ozone is the only pollutant for which Dallas County is in non-attainment. Because
ozone occurs from the interaction of sunlight with NOx and VOC, Dallas County is most likely to
exceed standards for ozone in the summer months when the sunlight exposure is the greatest.
4.2
Technical Discussion
4.2.1 EDMS Overview
The Environmental Protection Agency and the Federal Aviation Administration have jointly
developed a procedure and software to evaluate the emissions that affect air quality on airports.
The software was written for EPA and FAA and is the only software that is certified for
evaluating the contributions of aircraft to air quality emissions. The use of EDMS is required by
FAA for air quality analyses.
The current version 4.4 has many enhancements and more new data than the previous version
used in the 2001 Master Plan. The emission coefficients of several aircraft have been changed
as a result of new test data. Many new engines and new aircraft have been added to the
4-4
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
database. The previous version of EDMS did not calculate particulate matter for 10 microns
(PM10) for aircraft, but did estimate contributions for GSE and traffic. The new model also
calculates new emission factors for the following pollutants:
Q Total Hydrocarbons (THC)
Q Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC)
Q Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)
Q Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
4.2.2 EDMS Settings and Assumptions
The essence of the EPA and FAA guidelines are to calculate the total annual amount of
emissions from aircraft, support vehicles and on-airport vehicles based upon the calculation of
total fuel burned. The model estimates the time of operation of fuel burning vehicles and the
power settings used because the type and percentage of the emissions are different if the
engine of the vehicle/aircraft is idling or is operating near full power. The model input requires
an average of time in mode for aircraft and vehicles as well as an average of time in mode for
the support equipment operations for each aircraft type.
For aircraft operations the largest single assumption on emission contribution is the average
amount of time the aircraft are taxiing in and out. Because the actual takeoff and landing time is
relatively constant, this assumption of average annual taxiing time is one of the most important
assumptions of aircraft contributions. The EDMS model (both version 3 and 4) has a standard
default annual average taxiing time of 26 minutes per aircraft. However, during the 2001 Master
Plan the average annual taxiing time was studied using data supplied by airlines to the Bureau
of Transportation Statistics and visual observations at Dallas Love Field which resulted in
selecting an annual taxiing time of 10.46 minutes per aircraft.
No new analysis of average taxi times was performed for this air quality analysis. The previously
used value of 10.46 minutes seems reasonable and makes for a better comparison to the 2001
Master Plan data if this value remains the same. If future delays occur because of airport
capacity issues that result in an increase in the annual average taxi time, the result will increase
aircraft contributions to pollutant emissions.
4.2.3 Aircraft Operations
The increased number of aircraft flights and the type of aircraft has an influence on the air
quality analyses. The EDMS air quality model estimates the fuel burned by an aircraft until it
reaches the mixing height (3,000 feet above ground). Aircraft operations were input into the
EDMS model using a summary of the INM input files described in Section 2. Certain aircraft
were substituted for other aircraft because the INM and EDMS aircraft available in each
database differs slightly. In all cases the best database match to aircraft currently operating at
Dallas Love Field was selected for the aircraft engine combination to be used in the analysis.
The INM input file reduces all flights into an average day of takeoffs and landings and the EDMS
input file calculates the yearly number of landing /takeoff cycles (LTOs). Tables 4-3 and 4-4
show the actual aircraft operations used in the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment analyses.
4-5
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 4-3: Annual LTO for 20 Gate Air Quality Analysis
Aircraft
Category
Cargo
Cargo
Cargo
Cargo
Cargo
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAP
GAP
GAT
GAT
MIL
INM
Aircraft
767300
SD330
GASEPF
MD81
SF340
737700
7377SW
737800
CL601
EMB145
717EMB
MD83
MU3001
CIT3
CL600
FAL20
IA1125
GIIB
GIV
LEAR25
LEAR35
GASEPV
BEC58P
DHC6
CNA441
C130HP
EDMS
Aircraft
767300F
BE20
C208
MD81F
SF340
B737
B737
B738
CRJ700
EMB145
EMB170
MD83
BE40
C560
CL60
FA20
G200
G3
G4
LJ25
LJ35
C172
PA31
BE20
C441
C130
Daytime
Operations
1.0
3.0
22.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
253.5
26.3
9.9
6.0
41.2
11.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
6.0
22.0
52.0
118.0
74.0
6.0
2.0
Nighttime
Operations
1.0
1.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
22.3
2.3
.87
0.0
3.6
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.0
12.0
28.0
5.0
6.0
0.0
TOTAL
4-6
Operations
per Day
2.0
4.0
26.0
3.0
2.0
0.0
275.8
28.65
10.75
6.0
44.8
12.5
10.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
24.0
64.0
146.0
79.0
12.0
2.0
784.5
Annual
Operations
730
1,460
9,490
1,095
730
0.0
100,665
10,459
3,922
2,190
16,342
4,576
3,650
1,460
2,190
730
730
2,920
730
2,920
8,760
23,360
53,290
28,835
4,380
730
286,342
Annual
LTO
365
730
4,745
548
365
0.0
50,332
5,229
1,961
1,095
8,171
2,288
1,825
730
1,095
365
365
1,460
365
1,460
4,380
11,680
26,645
14,418
2,190
365
143,171
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 4-4: Annual LTO for 32 Gate Air Quality Analysis
Aircraft
Category
Cargo
Cargo
Cargo
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
Com
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAJ
GAP
GAP
GAT
GAT
MIL
INM
Aircraft
767300
GASEPF
MD81
717200
737300
7373SW
737500
7375SW
737700
7377SW
737800
SD330
CL601
EMB145
717EMB
MD83
SF340
MU3001
CIT3
CL600
FAL20
IA1125
GIIB
GIV
LEAR25
LEAR35
GASEPV
BEC58P
DHC6
CNA441
C130HP
EDMS
Aircraft
767300F
C208
MD81F
B717200
B733
B733
B735
B735
B737
B737
B738
BE20
CRJ700
EMB145
EMB170
MD83
SF340
BE40
C560
CL60
FA20
G200
G3
G4
LJ25
LJ35
C172
PA31
BE20
C441
C130
Daytime
Operations
1.0
22.0
1.0
9.0
0.5
1.1
2.3
5.3
90.7
211.6
25.6
3.0
10.0
6.0
73.7
10.5
2.0
10.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
6.0
22.0
52.0
118.0
74.0
6.0
2.0
Nighttime
Operations
1.0
4.0
2.0
11.4
0.1
0.2
0.4
1.0
17.3
40.3
4.9
1.0
1.7
0.0
14.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.0
12.0
28.0
5.0
6.0
0.0
TOTAL
4-7
Operations
per Day
2.0
26.0
3.0
20.4
0.5
1.3
2.7
6.3
108.0
251.9
33.4
4.0
11.7
6.0
87.7
12.5
2.0
10.0
4.0
6.0
2.0
2.0
8.0
2.0
8.0
24.0
64.0
146.0
79.0
12.0
2.0
945.5
Annual
Operations
730
9,490
1,095
7,442
195
458
981
2,288
39,412
91,960
11,111
1,460
4,287
2,190
32,026
4,576
730
3,650
1,460
2,190
730
730
2,920
730
2,920
8,760
23,360
53,290
28,835
4,380
730
345,116
Annual
LTO
365
4,745
548
3,721
98
228
490
1,144
19,706
45,980
5,555
730
2,143
1,095
16,013
2,288
365
1,825
730
1,095
365
365
1,460
365
1,460
4,380
11,680
26,645
14,418
2,190
365
172,558
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
4.2.4 Ground Support Equipment (GSE)
During the 2001 Master Plan a study was conducted of the ground support equipment in use by
Southwest Airlines and other air carriers. The Master Plan air quality analysis calculated the
year 2000 air quality emission based upon existing ground support equipment being utilized by
Southwest Airlines and the daily hours of operations. The analysis then forecast the operations
at 32 Gates based upon a predominant Southwest Airlines flight schedule and a commitment by
Southwest Airlines to convert to a more environmental friendly GSE fleet.
Southwest has since added electric baggage tractors and has hydrant fueling reducing the need
for fuel trucks. However, in the 2001 Master Plan the 3.2 version of EDMS did not have electric
baggage tractors in the database. Therefore, in order to reduce emissions from GSE and
auxiliary power units (APU) operations, assumptions were made to reduce operating times of
the GSE equipment. For example the electric baggage tractor was modeled as a gasoline
baggage tractor operating at 7.5 minutes versus a default of 75 minutes per takeoff and landing.
A B737-700 APU operating time was modeled at 3.75 minutes per takeoff and landing.
In order to have a good comparison to the Master Plan air quality analysis, the modeling
assumptions used in this update were the same as those modeled in 2001 with EDMS Version
3.2. However, with updates to the GSE database in EDMS Version 4.4 a reduction in GSE/APU
emissions were calculated even with increased operations.
4.2.5 On Airport Ground Traffic
The modeling of on airport vehicle traffic and parking was performed exactly as it was done in
the 2001 Master Plan. The only difference in the modeling was that the total annual number of
vehicles was adjusted to reflect the ratio of O/D passengers for the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenarios to the O/D passengers used in the Master Plan 32 Gate Wright
Amendment scenario. EDMS 4.4 was used but Mobile 5a was selected as the default vehicle
profile and emission coefficients. The same vehicle speeds and travel distances were used.
The year 2010 default vehicle fleet mix was used. The results are shown below in Table 4-5.
Table 4-5: Results of NOx for 20 and 32 Gates for Roadway and Parking
Vehicles / Year
Roadways
Parking Facilities
Total
2001 Master
Plan
1.0 Ratio
34.635
2.457
37.092
20 Gates
32 Gates
1.0134
34.270
1.533
35.803
1.464 Ratio
49.508
2.215
51.723
4.2.6 EDMS Results
4.2.6.1 Master Plan versus 20 Gates No Wright Amendment
Dallas is in non attainment for ozone pollution. The principal emissions that form ozone are the
exposure of NOx and VOC to sunlight. The 2001 version of the master plan did not report VOC
because the model did not calculate it. The substitute for VOC in the 2001 air quality analysis
was Hydrocarbons. Therefore comparing NOx and Hydrocarbons as a substitute for VOC are
the only pollutants for which Dallas is in non attainment.
A comparison can be made between the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario and the 20 Gate No
Wright Amendment scenario. As shown in Table 4-6, the nitrous oxides would be slightly less
4-8
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
in the 20 gate scenario than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario however the Hydrocarbons
would be slightly greater.
Table 4-6: NOx and Hydrocarbon Emissions for 20 Gates
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Total
NOx (tons/yr)
HC (tons/yr)
20 Gates No
20 Gates No
Master Plan
Master Plan
Wright
Wright
32 Gates
32 Gates
Amendment
Amendment
542.6
452.9
76.1
106.4
35.5
13.9
6.3
7.3
36
35.8
40.8
27.6
614.1
502.6
123.2
141.3
Although Dallas County is in attainment for Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur, PM10 and PM2.5, it is
useful to make comparisons to the 2001 Master Plan air quality analysis. The Carbon Monoxide
shown in Table 4-7 shows a large increase in CO levels. However, in reviewing the EDMS
model output, over 50% of the aircraft output is traced to a light piston twin engine aircraft, PA31
used in the analysis. If an updated general aviation fleet mix forecast were developed that
showed an increase in turboprop and business jet activity, the CO levels would likely be
reduced using the updated EDMS and found to be comparable to the master plan analysis.
The sulfur oxides show a small increase in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario from
the Master Plan 32 Gate analysis. This is likely due to the increase in narrow body jet aircraft
operations projected to be in operation under the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario.
The particulate matter calculated in the Master Plan analysis used EDMS 3.2 which at the time
had no data within the program to calculate the PM emissions for aircraft. In comparing the two
analyses shown in Table 4-7, the traffic and GSE/APU data for 20 gates shows a small
decrease in PM10 emissions, but the aircraft PM10 emissions is 73% of the total PM10
emissions.
Table 4-7: CO, SOx, and PM10 Emissions for 20 Gates
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Total
CO (tons/yr)
SOx (tons/yr)
PM10 (tons/yr)
20 Gates
20 Gates
20 Gates
MP 32 Gates No Wright MP 32 Gates No Wright MP 32 Gates No Wright
Amendment
Amendment
Amendment
695
1194
27.3
35.1
0
6.91
154.4
179
0.83
2.7
1.5
1.25
376.1
311
1.94
0.3
1.55
1.27
1225.5
1684
30.07
38.1
3.05
9.43
4.2.6.2 Master Plan versus 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
The comparison between the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario and the 32 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario shows that the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is higher in all
categories of air quality emissions. This is to be expected because the number of large jet
aircraft is higher than the Master Plan 32 gate scenario.
As shown in Table 4-8 the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario is higher in NOx and
Hydrocarbons and will be higher in VOC as well. For the two emissions that contribute to ozone
formation, NOx and VOC, the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario produces more
emissions than the Master Plan 32 gate.
4-9
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 4-8: NOx and Hydrocarbon Emissions for 32 Gates
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Total
NOx (tons/yr)
32 Gates
MP 32 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
542.6
617.9
35.5
18
36
51.7
614.1
687.6
HC (tons/yr)
32 Gates
MP 32 Gates
No Wright
Amendment
76.1
113
6.3
10
40.8
39.9
123.2
162.9
As shown in Table 4-9, the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario produces higher emission
of the CO, SOx, and particulate matter than the Master Plan 32 Gate.
Table 4-9: CO, SOx, and PM10 Emissions for 32 Gates
Aircraft
GSE/APU
Traffic
Total
CO (tons/yr)
SOx (tons/yr)
PM10 (tons/yr)
32 Gates
32 Gates
32 Gates
MP 32 Gates No Wright MP 32 Gates No Wright MP 32 Gates No Wright
Amendment
Amendment
Amendment
695
1284.8
27.3
47.6
0
9.09
154.4
248.4
0.83
3.3
1.5
1.46
376.1
448.9
1.94
0.39
1.55
1.84
1225.5
1982.1
30.07
51.29
3.05
12.39
4.2.6.3 20 Gates No Wright Amendment versus 32 Gates No Wright Amendment
In comparing the 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios, the 32 Gate scenario is
always significantly higher. In the case of emissions that are necessary for the formation of
ozone, the 32 Gate scenario produces 43 percent more tons/year of nitrous oxides and 17
percent more tons per year of VOCs.
Figure 4-4 shows the comparison of NOx emissions in tons/year for the two cases and a
comparison to the Master Plan 32 Gates scenario calculated using EDMS version 3.2 and the
current EDMS 4.4. There is a reduction in total NOx calculated by the EDMS version 4.4 from
that which was calculated using EDMS 3.2 in the 2001 Master Plan. The reduction is because
the new model has updated emission coefficients for many of the aircraft to more realistically
approximate the actual emissions. Any future calculations or other comparisons should be
made with the new model. The results also show that the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment
scenario would have less NOx emissions than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario calculated
using both models. Likewise the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario would have more
NOx emissions than the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario.
4-10
5/31/2006
Air Quality Analysis at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Figure 4-2: Comparison of NOx for 20 and 32 Gate No Wright Amendment
Nitrous Oxides (NOx)
700
Metric Tons/Year
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
MP 32 Gates EDMS MP 32 Gates EDMS
3.2
4.4
Aircraft
4.3
20 Gates No Wright
Amendment
GSE/APU
32 Gates No Wright
Amendment
Traffic
Findings and Conclusions
The following represent the most relevant findings of the updated air quality analyses for the
Master Plan 32 gate scenario and the two gate scenarios studied under the No Wright
Amendment conditions presented in Section 1.
Q Ozone is formed from the sunlight acting on the pollutants of nitrous oxides (NOx) and
volatile organic compounds (VOC). Dallas County is in non-attainment for 8-hour average
level of ozone pollution and is in attainment for all other pollutants.
Q The 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenarios have less nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide
emissions than the Master Plan 32 gate scenario.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario will have NOx emissions approximately 12
percent greater than the Master Plan 32 gate scenario emissions forecast.
Q The 32 Gate No Wright Amendment exceeds the Master Plan 32 gate forecast of emissions
for pollutants for which Dallas County is in attainment: Hydrocarbons, CO, SOx, and PM10.
Q In a comparison between the Master Plan at 32 gates re-calculated with the new model, the
VOC, PM10, and PM2.5 each were greater under the 20 and 32 gate scenarios than the
2001 Master Plan 32 gates with the Wright Amendment in place.
Overall, the 20 gate No Wright Amendment scenario results have fewer emissions than the 32
gate No Wright Amendment scenario for each of the pollutants calculated by the EDMS model.
4-11
5/31/2006
Section 5
Economic Impact Assessment
Prepared by:
DMJM Aviation
and GRA, Inc.
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
SECTION 5—ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
5.1
Economic Impact Assessment
Dallas Love Field (DAL) is a significant infrastructure asset for the City of Dallas and its
residents. DAL provides scheduled airline service and general aviation services to the people
and firms in the Dallas metropolitan area and those who visit. In 2005, DAL served nearly six
million arriving and departing passengers as well as a large corporate general aviation
community, who base more than 500 general aviation aircraft at the airport. It is also home to a
variety of service providers who serve those who use the airport, including federal service
providers for air traffic control and aviation security. In addition, DAL is the location for a
substantial aircraft maintenance and overhaul business, and a major U.S. airline is
headquartered there. All of these activities are the source of significant benefit to the region’s
economy.
The methodology and approach used for this economic impact assessment is a general one,
with the aim of providing an overview of the airport’s economic activity and impact in the region.
Several sources of data went into the assessment, including the economic impact analysis
developed for DAL’s 2001 Master Plan, recent data on airport activity and tenants, the GRA
forecasts for DAL activity in the absence of the Wright Amendment (Section 1), and regional
economic data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Regional Input-Output Modeling System
(RIMS-II). The airport activity forecast data are used to ramp up current economic impact
estimates to future years, and the RIMS-II regional multipliers make it possible to use direct and
indirect output and spending data from the airport to estimate the effects on the region-wide
economy on the airport’s economic activity.
The assessment finds that DAL is responsible for an economic impact in 2005 of approximately
$4.3 billion in the City of Dallas and the metropolitan statistical area that includes the city. For
future years, economic impact levels are estimated (in 2005 dollars) by scaling economic
activity to the growth forecasts for the aviation activities that drive the airport’s economic activity.
The economic impacts are calculated in terms of economic output, which includes:
Q Primary airport impacts, sometimes called “direct impacts,” are those that result from
expenditures by the airport and the airport’s tenants. For future years, these impacts are
built up from forecast growth in the airport’s aviation activity, including both commercial and
general aviation services.
Q Primary non-airport impacts, sometimes called “indirect impacts,” are those that occur as a
result of spending by visitors to the region who arrive at the airport, and then spend money
elsewhere within the region’s economy. This spending generally occurs away from the
airport. For future years, these are built up from the GRA forecasts for future enplanements
in the absence of the Wright Amendment, and on recent trends in general aviation activity.
Q “Induced impacts” are those that result from the rounds of spending subsequent to the direct
and indirect impacts described above. These are the economic transactions within the
Dallas region that occur when the incomes derived from the primary rounds of spending and
earning are themselves in turn spent. The source for the multiplier relationships used for
these estimates is the RIMS-II data and model as developed by the U.S. Department of
Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis.
There are many companies and organization that are tenants at the airport, and in addition to
commercial passenger air transportation services, these tenants offer a broad range of services
to the passengers and other users of the airport. There are three passenger airlines operating
5-1
5/31/2006
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
at DAL, and general aviation users of the airport have based more than 500 corporate jets and
other aircraft at DAL.
Some airport tenants are federal agencies that provide air traffic control or security services to
the general public and to aviation system users. Examples include the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). Airport tenants are
involved in such lines of business as:
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Air taxi and charter
Aircraft repair and modification
Aircraft sales and rental
Avionics sales, rental and installation
Automobile rental
Flight instruction
Fuel sales
FBO services to general aviation users
Hanger and tie-down rental
Restaurants, retail, financial and vending services
The direct or primary economic impacts from the operations of these varied firms and airport
users have been developed using the primary impacts estimated for the airport during the
preparation of the 2001 Master Plan. A more recent tenant list provided current employment
counts. Airport payrolls in 2005 were estimated using this new employment count and also an
adjustment for productivity changes in the general economy since 2000. The dollar figures were
also converted to 2005 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. Finally, primary airport
economic output for 2005, presented in Table 5-1, was estimated by maintaining the 2001
Master Plan study’s ratio between airport tenant payrolls and primary economic output.
Table 5-1: DAL Primary Airport Impacts – 2005
Direct Impact Category
Amount
Employment
8,201
Payroll
$634.1 *million
Output
$1,533.0 *million
*2005 dollars
Primary non-airport economic impacts were also based on the estimates and methodology from
the 2001 Master Plan. These impacts involve the spending by visitors to the Dallas region who
arrive on flights into DAL. These are primarily passengers from commercial flights, but GA
visitor arrivals are also included. The data and parameters for calculating these impacts are
based on past passenger surveys conducted at the airport.
5-2
5/31/2006
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 5-2: DAL Primary Non-Airport Impacts – 2005 (Visitor Expenditures in Region)
Area Visitor Parameter
Amount
Annual Commercial Passengers
2,977,546
Annual General Aviation Passengers
175,232
Total Passengers
3,152,778
Visitors (55% of total)
1,734,028
Visitor Days (times 2.43)
4,213,688
Visitor Expenditures (times $133.8/day)
$563.9 *million
*2005 dollars
Primary economic impacts of future DAL activity were estimated for the 20 and 32 Gate No
Wright Amendment scenarios. For each scenario, growth in airport employment (which leads to
growth in primary airport impacts) is assumed to be linked directly to growth in commercial
passenger enplanements, but employment growth is adjusted for anticipated productivity
improvements.
These productivity values are based on annual average productivity
improvements in the overall national economy (which equal 3.7% improvement in labor
productivity per year), as reported in the 2006 Economic Report of the President for the years
2000 through 2005. Dollar values are stated in 2005 dollars, and average employee
compensation is held constant from the 2005 estimate. Total economic output for airport-based
activities is estimated by using the payroll/output ratio that was reported for the year 2000 in the
Master Plan Update and extended to the 2005 economic output estimate.
For future primary non-airport economic impacts, it was necessary to develop estimates for
annual commercial passenger enplanements and annual GA operations at the airport in future
years. Enplanement forecasts were developed for each future scenario as part of this
assignment. These enplanement forecasts are reported in Figures 1-4 and 1-5 of this report.
Future GA operations were estimated by extending recent trends in annual GA operations at
DAL to the year 2020. The annual growth rate for GA activity was estimated to be 2.2% based
on these recent trends. Once these activity measures were established, visitor spending for
each scenario was estimated using the methodology applied for the 2001 Master Plan Update
(expressed in 2005 dollars).
Forecast primary economic impact estimates are reported for each scenario in Table 5-3. It
should be kept in mind that just as economic activity at DAL will grow in future years, so will
overall economic activity within the City of Dallas and the surrounding region. Therefore, while
primary economic impacts for the airport will grow over time, this does not imply that the
airport’s share of overall economic activity within the city or the region will necessarily increase.
5-3
5/31/2006
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Table 5-3: Future Scenarios for DAL Primary Airport and Non-Airport Impacts
2005 Impacts
Direct impact Category
Employment
Payroll
Output
No Wright Amendment
20 Gates
32 Gates
2005
8,201
$634
$1,533
2020
9,879
$764
$1,847
Area Visitor Parameter
Annual Commercial Passengers
2,977,546
6,155,406
Annual General Aviation Passengers
175,232
249,058
Total Passengers
3,152,778
6,404,464
Visitors (55% of total)
1,734,028
3,522,455
Visitor Days (times 2.43)
4,213,688
8,559,566
Visitor Expenditures (times $133.80/day)
$563.9
$1,145.5
(Dollar terms in millions of $2005)
2020
14,055
$1,087
$2,627
8,757,139
249,058
9,006,197
4,953,404
12,036,783
$1,610.9
The incomes earned, output and passenger spending identified for future year activity will, in
turn, be received as income by other Dallas area residents and businesses, and spent again.
The magnitude of this spending cycle—referred to as “induced economic impacts”—is estimated
in regional economic multipliers that are developed by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau
of Economic Analysis. These multipliers have been applied to the 2005 estimate and to
estimates of future primary airport and non-airport economic activity, and the resulting total
economic impact of DAL within the Dallas region in these time periods and scenarios are
reported in Table 5-4.
Table 5-4: Summary of Total Economic Impacts of DAL – 2005 and All Scenarios
2005 Impacts
2005
Type of Economic Impact Estimate
$1,533.0
Primary Airport Direct Impacts
$563.9
Primary Non-Airport Impacts (visitors)
$1,734.5
Primary Airport Inducted Impacts
$502.3
Primary Non-Airport Induced Impacts
$4,333.7
Total Regional Economic Impact
(Dollar terms in millions of $2005)
5.2
No Wright Amendment
20 Gates
32 Gates
2020
$1,846.7
$1,145.5
$2,089.4
$1,020.3
$6,101.9
2020
$2,627.3
$1,610.9
$2,972.5
$1,434.8
$8,645.4
Property Tax Contribution
An updated evaluation was completed to estimate the total property tax contribution from Dallas
residential property owners residing within the 55+ DNL noise contours for all gate scenarios
generated for this update. The estimated property tax contribution totals by contour level were
derived using GIS information obtained from the City of Dallas Public Works and Transportation,
GIS Division and the Dallas Central Appraisal District for Tax Year 2005. The new data allowed
for updating the results of the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario to reflect 2005 property tax
contribution. Compared to the Master Plan 32 Gate scenario, the 20 Gate No Wright
Amendment scenario results indicate:
5-4
5/31/2006
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
Q There are approximately 11,768 residential parcels located within the DNL 55 dB or greater
noise contour in the 20 Gate No Wright Amendment scenario (20 Gate NWA), and
approximately 16,910 in the 32 Gate No Wright Amendment (32 Gate NWA) , while the
Master Plan 32 Gate scenario (MP 32 Gate) contains approximately 10,945.
Q The estimated market value of the above properties is approximately $2.79 billion (20 Gate
NWA), $2.97 billion (32 Gate NWA), and $2.76 billion (MP 32 Gate).
Q The taxable value of all residential properties within the DNL 55 dB or greater noise contour is
approximately $2.17 billion (20 Gate NWA), $2.32 billion (32 Gate NWA), and $2.16 billion
(MP 32 Gate).
Q The estimated property tax contribution is approximately:
§
§
§
DNL 55 – 60 dB property tax contribution - $33,577,927 (20 Gate NWA), $35,375,572
(32 Gate NWA), and $33,104,323 (MP 32 Gate)
DNL 60 – 65 dB property tax contribution - $14,274,677 (20 Gate NWA), $15,175,353
(32 Gate NWA), and $14,087,637 (MP 32 Gate)
DNL 65 – 70 dB property tax contribution - $2,207,810 (20 Gate NWA), $2,674,524 (32
Gate NWA), and $2,373,978 (MP 32 Gate)
Q The total estimated property tax contribution from those residing within the Love Field noise
contours - $50.2 million (20 Gate NWA), $53.4 million (32 Gate NWA), and $49.7 million
(MP 32 Gate).
A summary of the tax contribution for each of the gate scenarios is presented in Table 5-5.
Table 5-5: Property Tax Contribution from Residential Parcels within the DNL 55 dB Noise Contour
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
DNL
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
Totals
Master Plan 32 Gate (updated for INM 6.1)
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,150
$1,839,129,070 1.8%
3,514
$782,646,490 1.8%
1,181
$131,887,680 1.8%
100
$7,416,020 1.8%
10,945
$2,761,079,260 1.8%
20 Gate No Wright Amendment Scenario
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,093
$1,849,051,690 1.8%
3,513
$793,037,600 1.8%
1,111
$122,656,130 1.8%
67
$4,935,530 1.8%
10,784
$2,786,069,630 1.8%
32 Gate No Wright Amendment Scenario
Residential Parcels
Total Market
Rate
Under Contour
Value
6,770
$1,965,309,540 1.8%
3,753
$843,075,150 1.8%
1,260
$148,584,660 1.8%
137
$9,916,840 1.8%
11,920
$2,966,886,190 1.8%
5-5
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$33,104,323
$14,087,637
$2,373,978
$133,488
$49,699,427
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$33,282,930
$14,274,677
$2,207,810
$88,840
$50,149,253
Total Potential
Tax Contribution
$35,375,572
$15,175,353
$2,674,524
$178,503
$53,403,951
5/31/2006
Economic Impact Assessment at Dallas Love Field in the Absence of the Wright Amendment
5.3
Survey of Real Estate Values
A survey of real estate values for the areas surrounding Love Field was compiled and presented
in the 2001 Master Plan/Impact Analysis for the years 1997 – 2000. This survey data has been
researched from current sources and updated for the years 2001 – 2005 and is presented in
Table 5-6 for the areas shown in Figure 5-1. It should be noted that the data available for this
update differed from that available at the time of the 2001 Master Plan in that it is for single
family homes only. Thus, it should not be compared to the Master Plan in terms of numeric
values, but it is an updated indicator of the continued positive growth in property values over the
past 5 years.
Table 5-6: Survey of Real Estate Data
Location
Total
Sales
Average
Sales Price
Low
High
Days on
Market
AREA 1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
405
432
410
379
406
0%
$
$
$
$
$
237,877
246,412
265,915
277,722
241,153
1%
$
$
$
$
$
32,000
26,000
68,500
50,000
30,000
-6%
$
$
$
$
$
895,000
860,000
1,800,000
535,000
380,000
-58%
58
60
60
67
59
2%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
11
10
8
23
20
82%
$
$
$
$
$
679,273
360,175
576,500
570,452
709,438
4%
$
$
$
$
$
79,900
90,750
55,000
128,000
138,000
73%
$
$
$
$
$
2,450,000
950,000
1,845,000
1,750,000
2,800,000
14%
75
47
113
93
99
32%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
15
15
10
18
28
87%
$
$
$
$
$
69,170
70,323
85,783
95,494
96,125
39%
$
$
$
$
$
26,650
27,000
39,900
48,000
43,000
61%
$
$
$
$
$
106,000
99,900
138,000
135,000
135,000
27%
70
81
38
71
60
-14%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
45
36
51
55
56
24%
$
$
$
$
$
222,486
202,416
221,075
225,151
268,633
21%
$
$
$
$
$
55,000
45,000
63,750
72,500
64,900
18%
$
$
$
$
$
519,000
635,617
541,000
685,000
680,000
31%
72
60
83
83
56
-22%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
776
836
850
947
880
13%
$
$
$
$
$
668,857
692,915
732,980
623,298
836,550
25%
$
$
$
$
$
49,000
51,000
51,400
53,000
33,500
-32%
$
$
$
$
$
7,500,000
4,500,000
9,250,000
7,995,000
3,349,500
-55%
77
78
83
69
58
-25%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Percent Increase 2001 to 2005
519
499
496
509
560
8%
$
$
$
$
$
164,353
177,442
185,649
196,392
206,456
26%
$
$
$
$
$
40,000
27,500
50,447
30,000
22,500
-44%
$
$
$
$
$
571,428
529,000
535,000
1,175,000
730,000
28%
51
53
67
75
62
22%
AREA 2
AREA 3
AREA 4
AREA 5
AREA 6
Source: Lynell Jones , using North Texas Real Estate Info. Systems, Inc., 5/25/06
Property type: Single Family
Status: Homes Sold
5-6
5/31/2006
SCALE: 1" = 6500'
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Unive rsity of Texas
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MO
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77
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H
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348
12
CH
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P op 1,006,877
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635
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Winchester Gu n Club
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PUEBLO
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ATIV
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114
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114
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DEFRATUS
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CANADA
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NO
CK
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J
W
FR
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W
SMITH
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RIVER HILL
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Texas
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GRAUWYLER
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PIO NEER
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L
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DE
P
OH
N
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A NA
A
NU
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348
T AM
BACCARAT
SONORA
LAJA
RA
183
Un ive rsity
of
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RIDER
BEND
HENDERSON
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WILLIAMS
LANDMARK
6TH
356
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MEXICANA
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BEDFORD
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MOBILE
MORGAN
OREGON
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DIA
RO
LO
VIEW
RANCH
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A
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Coun try
Club
LE
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DA
A
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O
DURANGO
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BELEW
EDITH
BLACKWELL
VANCE
BOWER
DAYWOOD
BEN
STONE
MARK
SHADY
CHAMBERLAIN
BELL
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G rove
Me mo rial
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PERRY
HARLAN
DREXEL
BOYD
DAISY
MARLYN
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JIM
UNION
MULLINS
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5TH
4TH
LINDY
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LACY
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CANADA
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COMMERCE
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30
S
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Real Estate Sales Survey
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114
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A
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4TH
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9TH
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14TH
RE
Tip ton
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HOMELAND
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MORRIS
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SCHULZE
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16TH
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NT
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BO
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North L ake
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HAM
DOWLING
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VALLEY
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McHAM
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WEATHERED
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WOODLEIGH
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SCHULZE
SEGUNDO
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8TH
SUNNY
11TH
12TH
15TH
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TORONTO
BLVD
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