Chapter 9: Promotions as motivators • There are many situations where it is difficult to provide incentives through piece rates or bonuses. Æ Promotions might be an alternative! • Establish an “internal labor market” Personnel Economics 9 1 What is a tournament? (Turnier) • Promotion can be thought of as a tournament • Assume a tennis tournament: Federer against Nadal (plus future rounds) – Relative performance counts. Winner is the relatively better player (on this day). – Monetary rewards are fixed in advance and are independent of absolute performance. – Level of effort depends on spread between winner’s and loser’s prizes. Personnel Economics 9 2 Tournament Theory • Salary structure: – Level of wages: induces participation in tournament – Spread of wages: induces level of effort Personnel Economics 9 3 Tournament, 2 workers: 5 years of test phase (engineer), 5 years as project head later on Personnel Economics 9 4 Level of wage structure: participation constraint Spread of wage structure: incentive condition Do workers prefer A over B? Does the employer prefer A over B? Personnel Economics 9 5 Advantages of tournaments • Ease of evaluation: it is easier to observe relative than absolute performance (e.g. looking at the relative size of a pile of coal is easier than to weigh it) • Eliminates effect of external forces that influence all participants equally. E.g. bad weather, economic downturn • Neutralizes subjective supervisory evaluation: Some supervisors are more easy to satisfy than others. • Eliminates moral hazard on the side of the firm: number of promotions predetermined Personnel Economics 9 6 Importance of „luck“ • „noise“ in statistical terms – Production or market uncertainty, negative noise: high effort but still low output – Measurement errors: output is not perceived correctly • The higher the noise, the lower the effort of the workers. Why? – The relation between effort and return to effort is weaker – E.g.: Federer and Nadal play in a hurricane – E.g.: Superivisors promote according to their daily moods Personnel Economics 9 7 Importance of luck • More luck (noise) reduces effort, which is bad • You can counteract by increasing the spread of the prizes – Examples: Manager compensation in US/Japan – Compensation in old industries vs. Start-up or high-tech firms Personnel Economics 9 8 Empirical evidence for tournament theory Difficult to get, because output and effort are difficult to measure by definition – Ehrenberg, Bonnano (1990): professional golf, higher average scores when larger spread in prizes – Drago, Garvey (1997): Australian firms, absenteeism reduced when promotion leads to larger salary raises – Laboratory experiments: spread between winner‘s and loser‘s prize determines effort Personnel Economics 9 9 Tournaments and organizational charts • Are there any conclusions from tournament theory for hierarchy levels of the firm? – „Option“ value of a job: promotion to certain hierarchy level provides also an option for the next level – Final round: no more option value, entire prize money • Reward must be higher • The more layers in a firm, the larger the difference between the ability of the people in the top job and in the bottom job. Personnel Economics 9 10 Personnel Economics 9 11 Personnel Economics 9 12 Design of tournaments • The number of layers between the bottom and top depends on the heterogeneity of the workers. If workers are homogeneous, a rather flat structure can be used. • The length of time between promotions has costs and benefits: – Longer time allows better decisions – Longer time wastes time of good workers who are needed at the top Personnel Economics 9 13 Tournament Theory Implications • If competing people have different abilities and know this, effort will be reduced. – Lower ability people may give up when they have a small chance of winning. – Higher ability people may work less hard because they know that they will win anyway. • Æ People of one level should have similar abilities and should be evenly matched with those against they compete. Personnel Economics 9 14 Tournament Theory Implications, summary • Tournaments work better if the workers are more homogeneous. • If workers are heterogeneous, short term rewards are necessary to maintain incentives for guaranteed winners and losers. • In job ladders, the option of future promotions also plays a role in the worker’s performance on a job and her expectations of promotion. • At the top of the ladder, there is no option value. Incentives must come from other sources. This is one explanation of high CEO salaries and the extent of stock option incentives that are used. • Function of top-salaries: not reward for good work, but aspiration level for lower layers Personnel Economics 9 15 Tournament turned extreme: „Up or out!“ • Tournament: the winner gets promoted to very good job, the looser has to leave the firm • Why/when would you induce such a fierce competition? – – – – – Effort has to be very high You only want to keep the best Loser has no incentive to work hard anymore Makes room for young fresh talents with lots of effort Firm-specific HC not so important • Examples: US law firms, university tenure decision • How to induce participation? Personnel Economics 9 16 Problem of losers in tournaments If losers of competition remain in the firm • Losers may occupy positions, that others below would like to fill • Relative failure often seen as absolute failure • Losers may consider themselves mistreated: Æ loss of motivation. Maybe install a second-track competition for different jobs! Personnel Economics 9 17 Advantages of promotion from the inside • Internal candidates should be favored because of incentive effects on all workers on the same level. • If competition is wide open for outside candidates the probability of being promoted for an internal one shrinks a lot Æ size of the prize must rise exorbitantly high to trade this off. Æ Favor insiders, unless outsiders are far better (or if you want to avoid collusion) Personnel Economics 9 18 Tournament as an incentive contract • Remember: Incentive contract to avoid the problem of moral hazard of the worker (shirking) • But: moral hazard exists also on side of employers (e.g. incentive via profit share) • Æ tournaments solve this problem completely – Prize is fixed in advance, no cheating possible – Firm must promote one of the candidates – Firm has good incentive to promote the best candidate Personnel Economics 9 19 Disadvantages of tournaments • Promotion is a discrete incentive – a linear incentive, if possible, would be better. • Encourages competition versus team work. • Gives incentive to do activities that will lead to promotion at the expense of other important tasks. • Workers might collude to keep down average output. Personnel Economics 9 20 Disadvantages of tournaments for workers • “Rat race”: both competitors work long hours to compete with one another for the same prize. • What dilemma are they facing? • Possibility of collusion – To avoid collusion of insiders, you may want to take an outsider from time to time – Collusion less likely if the contestants neither know each other nor the total number of contestants Personnel Economics 9 21 Chapter 10: Lobbying and sabotage in tournaments • Relative compensation. You win if: – You „are“ better than the other or – You „look“ better than the other • No cooperation with colleagues • Sabotage of others‘ efforts • Lobbying to the supervisors Personnel Economics 9 22 Hawks and Doves, or: Personality matters • Two types of workers: hawks and doves • Hawks are more aggressive, cooperate less and may sabotage the others • Doves are more cooperative • Should you hire some hawks for your firm? Personnel Economics 9 23 Rewards structure and cooperation • Mix or match personality types? (Assume at the end of period, prize will be given to best player) – Hawk and dove mix – Hawk and hawk match – Dove and dove match • Offer high or low prize? Personnel Economics 9 24 Rewards structure and cooperation • In mixed couple, reduce wage spread • If cooperation is important - segregate workers by personality type! (Match!) – Advantage: for doves no problem of sabotage, wage spread (incentive) can be kept high • Offered prize (wage spread) should be lower for matched hawks than for matched doves. Prize induces destructive behavior but also effort! Tradeoff. • Make couples always with persons who do not interact: e.g. workers from different branch Personnel Economics 9 25 Personality types • How to observe personality of an individual? • Make them sort by personality voluntarily? – Would be optimal, because then different incentive levels could be used Personnel Economics 9 26 Personnel Economics 9 27 Personnel Economics 9 28 Sorting • Will hawks and doves self-sort as segregation is required? – No! – Doves would like to work with doves, because they are hurt by hawks – Hawks also prefer to work with doves, because it makes them look better Æ will pretend to be more cooperative than they really are • Sorting by firm: Personalities not easily observed! Personnel Economics 9 29 Hawks in higher management • Problem of hawkish behavior particularly important for higher management. People there are more hawkish – and necessity to cooperate is higher! Æ use other incentive mechanisms (absolute instead of relative standards) Æ take CEO from subsidiary, but not from the immediate subordinates Personnel Economics 9 30 Inducing cooperation in tournament systems • Generally: workers should have to compete only against workers with who they do not have to cooperate (not work on same project, etc.) • Output based on team output • Rewards for cooperation/punish sabotage – Manager observes cooperative behaviour; profit sharing Æ other worker not in the tournament can observe coworkers Personnel Economics 9 31 Empirical Evidence • Drago and Garvey (1997): data from 23 Australian firms – The higher the raises associated with promotions, the more effort workers put into the job. – Workers are less likely to let other workers use their equipment, tools, or machinery when there are large raises (based on relative comparisons). Personnel Economics 9 32 Relative compensation and hiring • Which workers will you hire if you have to compete with them afterwards? • Example: university professors • Way out: • Give potential competitors no say in hiring • Guaranteed tenure or guaranteed wage Personnel Economics 9 33