08.00-08.45 Registration & Coffee Garden Foyer OPENING SESSIONS Grand Ballroom 08.45-08.50 Euromoney Welcome: John Baskott, Global Head of Sales, Euromoney Conferences and HedgeFund Intelligence Events 08.50-09.15 Keynote Address: James Clark, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance, US Department of the Treasury 09.15-10.15 PANEL I: The Economic Backdrop, and How the Fed Reacts to it Too much, too soon? Does the real economy justify the Fed’s actions yet? Wage and price inflation decoupling. Are we even looking at the right index? Acting in isolation. Is the Fed coordinating the taper with other central banks? How important are foreign economies? If not, what are the risks? How fast can inflation return? Where will break even yields be in 1 year from now? Moderator: Josh Friedlander, Editor, Absolute Return Panellists: David Greenlaw, Managing Director, Senior Trading Desk Economist, Morgan Stanley Martin Hegarty, Managing Director, Head of Global Inflation-linked Bond Portfolios within Americas Fixed Income Alpha Strategies, BlackRock Gautam Khanna, Managing Director, Head of US Inflation Trading, Goldman Sachs Aneta Markowska, Chief US Economist, Societe Generale Robert Robis, Chief Strategist, US Bond Strategy, BCA Research Robert Tipp, Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, and Head of Global Bonds and Foreign Exchange, Prudential Fixed Income 10.15-10.40 Coffee Break Garden Foyer 10.40-11.25 Workshop A Hosted by: Goldman Sachs Grand Ballroom Workshop B Hosted by: Deutsche Bank Regency Central Bank Policies and their Impact – a Closer Look at How Monetary Policies and Inflation Markets Interact Quantitative Methods to Build a TIPS Real Yield Curve in Order to Identify and Take Advantage of Market Opportunities How did accommodative monetary policies impact financial conditions? How did markets around the globe react differently to central bank policies? What are the impacts of quantitative easing on inflation and real rate expectations? Where we expect real rates to be for the US and Europe Who’s got it right on inflation, central banks or the market? Speakers: Gautam Khanna, Managing Director, Head of US Inflation Trading, Goldman Sachs Toh Ne Win, U.S. Interest Rate Products Strategy, Goldman Sachs • • • • • • A brief review of key events in the inflation market over the last year as well as implications for the future What is a TIPS spline curve? Brief description of Cubic Spline, Nelson-Siegel & Exponential Spline Curves How to adjust for issue-specific factors such as seasonality, redemption floors, etc. How to fit a spline curve in a spreadsheet Real yield vs. breakeven splines Avoiding pitfalls, interpreting results, and identifying potential trade opportunities Speakers: Allan Levin, Managing Director, Head of Inflation and Fixed Income Index Trading, North America, Deutsche Bank Alex Li, Chief US Treasury and Inflation Strategist, Deutsche Bank 11.25-12.10 Workshop C Hosted by: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Grand Ballroom Workshop D Hosted by: Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking Regency Five Macro Lessons Learned for Inflation Markets Looking at TIPS Through the Derivatives Prism: How to Convert Concepts into Pricing The four drivers of a low real yield world. What is a fair real yield now? One last bazooka at the ECB’s disposal (other than QE). How to trade the tail risk Speakers: Mark Capleton, Managing Director, Head of Global Inflation-Linked Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research Andrew Henson, Vice President, US Inflation Trader, Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Slater, Managing Director, Global Head of Inflation Trading, Bank of America Merrill Lynch 12.10-12.35 Using the inflation swap curve as a benchmark for seasonality and relative value Using inflation options to valuate/monetize the TIPS capital protection Using the short term forecast and swap to better appreciate the TIPS specific carry What is the purest metric to monitor the TIPS cheapness/richness? Speakers: Dan Haehnel, Senior Inflation Trader, Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking Georges Sitbon, Global Head of Inflation Trading, Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking Keynote Debate: ‘Inflation – What is There to Worry About?’ Speakers: Dennis Gartman, Editor and Publisher, The Gartman Letter Peter Schiff, Chief Executive Officer, Euro Pacific Capital Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and President, Decision Economics, Inc. Chaired by: Richard Kemmish, Editorial Consultant, Euromoney Conferences 12.35-13.25 Lunch Garden Foyer 13.25-14.15 PANEL II: The TIPS market - Business as Usual? Grand Ballroom How did the market change after the sell-off? Are the changes here to stay? As growth and inflation risk slowly returns, are new investors looking to come in? Are we seeing more foreign investors? Are the existing investors diversifying to new asset classes? Or countries? What’s your time horizon? Are duration preferences changing? How fragile is the expectation consensus? Where will break even yields be in one year from now? Moderator: Yiying Luthra, Editor, North America, Total Derivatives Panellists: Karim Bendouma, Vice President, Head Inflation Trader, Deutsche Bank James Evans, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Brown Brothers Harriman David Slater, Managing Director, Global Head of Inflation Trading, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Andrew Weir, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Worldwide Investment Gemma Wright-Casparius, Principal, Senior Portfolio Manager – Inflation, Vanguard 14.15-15.00 Workshop E Hosted by: Morgan Stanley Grand Ballroom Workshop F Hosted by: Regency Federal Reserve Intent and Tactical Trading Opportunities for TIPS Real Money Investors Speakers: TIPS Trading around index extensions Trading inflation surprises Are <1y TIPS still cheap? Fund flows: creating momentum in TIPS performance? Does carry drive returns? Federal Reserve Intent The logic of forward guidance The role of forward rate guidance Types of commitment mechanisms The Summary of Economic Projections Speakers: Anton Heese, Co-Head of European Interest Rates Strategy, Morgan Stanley Vincent Reinhart, Chief US Economist, Morgan Stanley 15.00-15.25 Coffee Break Garden Foyer 15.25-16.15 PANEL III: The Buyer’s Viewpoint Grand Ballroom What is the alternative? Comparing TIPS and other ways to hedge inflation. How do TIPS fit into an overall investment strategy? Other asset classes? Other currencies? Is the TIPS market fit for purpose? Are there enough products? Is there enough liquidity? How would you rate your investment bank? Where is there relative value today? Where will break-even yields be in 1 year from now? Moderator: Richard Kemmish, Editorial Consultant, Euromoney Conferences Panellists: Jonathan Baltora, Senior Global Rates and Inflation Linked Bonds Portfolio Manager, AXA Investment Managers Deepa Majmudar, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager, Inflation Strategies J.P. Morgan Asset Management Nils Overdahl, Principal and Senior Portfolio Manager, New Century Advisors, LLC Greg Wilensky, Portfolio Manager, US Multi-Sector Fixed Income; Director, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities; Director, Stable Value Investments, AllianceBernstein 16.15-16.40 Keynote Address: Richard W. Peach, Senior Vice President, Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 16.40-17.45 Post-Conference Drinks Reception Lounge Bar Euromoney Conferences reserve the right to amend the programme and is not responsible for cancellations due to unforeseen circumstances. Euromoney Conferences accepts no responsibility for statements made orally or in written material distributed by any of its speakers at its conferences. In addition, Euromoney Conferences are not responsible for any copying, republication or redistribution of such statements.