East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground Dynamar B.V. Noorderkade 1G 1823 CJ Alkmaar Tel: +31 72 514 74 00 Fax: +31 72 515 13 97 E‐mail: info@dynamar.com Website: www.dynamar.com 2 East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground
Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) The Dynamar Container Trades Reports series
3
East‐West Container Trades: the Alliances Playground January 2015 Covering dedicated container liner services along the: Transpacific Far East‐Europe Transatlantic … trades Analyst, Author: Darron Wadey MILT Managing Editor: Dirk Visser © All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without explicit permission of the publisher. While the information contained in this report is presented in good faith, it frequently involves estimates where no current published data is available. This information, believed to be accurate, can therefore not be guaranteed. The publishers cannot accept liability of any errors or omission. By the front page: the current largest ships of each of the four Alliances: 2M/MSC: “MSC Oscar” 19,224 TEU ‐ Ocean Three/China Shipping: “CSCL Globe 18,980 TEU G6 Alliance/APL: “APL Avra” 14,000 TEU ‐ CKYHE Alliance/Evergreen: “Thalassa Thyi”13,808 TEU Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) Dynamar B.V. Noorderkade 1g 1823 CJ ALKMAAR Phone: +31 72 514 74 00 Fax: +31 72 515 13 97 info@dynamar.com www.dynamar.com 4 East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground
Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) THE DYNAMAR CONTAINER TRADES REPORTS SERIES Since 2004 Dynamar has been publishing reports on specific container liner trades. In essence, these “off‐the‐
shelf” consultancy studies provide all those with an interest in a particular trade an in‐depth survey of the current state of the trade under review. In particular, these studies aim at providing: 
An assessment of the size of the trade (full container carryings, trade capacity, port throughputs)
An in‐depth competition inventory (carriers, services, capacity analyses)

Developing from the earlier single shipping‐lane studies they are now multi‐trade lane studies to and from one specific area. This publication is the first to look at the strategic East‐West routes, these being between North America, Europe and the Far East. This study covers the following key areas:  An Executive Summary including tables, figures, supporting text on trade structure, carryings and Annual Trade Capacity  An Introduction defining the trades and major themes in the East‐West trades context  A summary of all end‐to‐end container liner services  In depth analyses of all six trade lanes (three main, three parallel) covering: o Services o Vessel operating carriers o Ports … all with relevant Annual Trade Capacity calculations alongside o Service rotations o Carryings (volumes) developments o Rate developments  Profiles on the vessel operating carriers including brief corporate introductions and specific East‐West involvement  Summary of ports called included allocated Annual Trade Capacities and throughputs  Alliance analysis covering o A history of Alliances o Individual historical, fleet and trading backgrounds of each Alliance o Development of ever larger containerships  Summary of services offering technical East‐West links but not considered for Annual Trade Capacity calculations  Forecast carryings 2013‐2018 …all supported by close to 130 tables or figures. This wide range of factors and subjects make these reports also of particular interest to all stakeholders in the trade areas, including: consultants, container leasing companies, financiers, forwarders, NVOCCs, port authorities, port developers, shippers, terminal operators, training institutes and others. We trust that you find the following pages of use and interest and as always, welcome any comments or feedback you may have. Darron Wadey MILT, Analyst Dirk Visser, Managing Editor Dynamar B.V, January 2015 Contents
5
CONTENTS THE DYNAMAR CONTAINER TRADES REPORTS SERIES .......................................................................................................... 4 CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 1: Key Facts and Figures – all East‐West trades ................................................................................... 11 Structure of the East‐West liner trades .......................................................................................................... 12 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Defining the East‐West trades ........................................................................................................................ 18 East‐West trading context .............................................................................................................................. 19 Falling bunker prices ....................................................................................................................................... 25 September 2014 survey .................................................................................................................................. 26 CONTAINER SHIPPING SERVICES .................................................................................................................................... 28 Selecting the services ...................................................................................................................................... 28 Calculation and allocation of Annual Trade Capacity ..................................................................................... 28 Overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 TRANSPACIFIC (WEST COAST) TRADE ............................................................................................................................. 34 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 34 Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 35 North America ports called ............................................................................................................................. 38 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 42 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 43 TRANSPACIFIC (EAST COAST) TRADE .............................................................................................................................. 44 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 44 Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 45 Far East ports called ........................................................................................................................................ 46 North America ports called ............................................................................................................................. 47 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 48 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 50 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 50 FAR EAST‐NORTH EUROPE TRADE ................................................................................................................................. 52 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 52 Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) Far East ports called ........................................................................................................................................ 36 6 East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground
Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 54 Far East ports called ........................................................................................................................................ 55 North Europe ports called ............................................................................................................................... 56 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 58 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 59 FAR EAST‐MEDITERRANEAN TRADE ............................................................................................................................... 61 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 61 Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 62 Far East ports called ........................................................................................................................................ 63 Mediterranean ports called ............................................................................................................................ 64 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 66 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 67 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 68 TRANSATLANTIC (NORTH EUROPE) TRADE ...................................................................................................................... 70 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 70 Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 71 North Europe ports called ............................................................................................................................... 72 North America ports called ............................................................................................................................. 72 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 73 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 75 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 75 Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) TRANSATLANTIC (MEDITERRANEAN) TRADE .................................................................................................................... 76 Container shipping services ............................................................................................................................ 76 Container liner carriers ................................................................................................................................... 76 Mediterranean ports called ............................................................................................................................ 77 North America ports called ............................................................................................................................. 78 Service rotations ............................................................................................................................................. 79 Carryings ......................................................................................................................................................... 82 Freight rates .................................................................................................................................................... 82 CONTAINER LINER CARRIERS ........................................................................................................................................ 83 Overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 83 Trade lane summaries ..................................................................................................................................... 84 Trade related carrier profiles .......................................................................................................................... 87 Carrier volumes ............................................................................................................................................. 103 PORTS CALLED ........................................................................................................................................................ 107 Trade connections and trade capacity .......................................................................................................... 107 List of Tables
7
East‐West ports handled containers ............................................................................................................. 117 ALLIANCES ANALYSES ............................................................................................................................................... 125 A history of the Alliance, 1965‐2014 ............................................................................................................. 125 Trades covered .............................................................................................................................................. 130 Operational concepts .................................................................................................................................... 130 Alliances overview 2015 ............................................................................................................................... 131 CKYHE Alliance .............................................................................................................................................. 134 G6 Alliance .................................................................................................................................................... 137 2M ................................................................................................................................................................. 142 Ocean Three .................................................................................................................................................. 145 A regulator's overview? ................................................................................................................................ 148 Bigger ships getting bigger ............................................................................................................................ 150 SERVICES NOT SELECTED BUT STILL OFFERING EAST‐WEST LINKS ........................................................................................ 154 TRADE LANE CARRYINGS FORECASTS ............................................................................................................................ 157 SOURCES ................................................................................................................................................................ 159 Table 1: Dominant leg carryings ........................................................................................................................... 16 Table 2: Vessel growth rates main East‐West trade lanes ................................................................................... 21 Table 3: Overview of East‐West carryings (two‐way) ........................................................................................... 22 Table 4: Overview of East‐West carryings (headhaul) .......................................................................................... 22 Table 5: Annual Trade Capacity changes January 2015/ September 2014 ........................................................... 27 Table 6: Transpacific services summary ............................................................................................................... 30 Table 7: Far East‐Europe services summary ......................................................................................................... 32 Table 8: Transatlantic services summary .............................................................................................................. 33 Table 9: Services summary Transpacific (West Coast) route ................................................................................ 34 Table 10: Container carriers active on the Transpacific (West Coast) route ........................................................ 35 Table 11: Far East ports called on the Transpacific (West Coast) route ............................................................... 37 Table 12: North America ports called on the Transpacific (West Coast) route .................................................... 38 Table 13: Transpacific (West Coast) services grid 1 .............................................................................................. 39 Table 14: Transpacific (West Coast) services grid 2 .............................................................................................. 41 Table 15: Transpacific (West Coast) carryings ...................................................................................................... 42 Table 16: Services summary Transpacific (East Coast) route ............................................................................... 44 Table 17: Transpacific (East Coast) via Panama/Suez comparisons ..................................................................... 45 Table 18: Container carriers active on the Transpacific (East Coast) route .......................................................... 46 Table 19: Far East ports called on the Transpacific (East Coast) route ................................................................. 47 Table 20: North America East Coast ports called on the Transpacific (East Coast) route .................................... 48 Table 21: Transpacific (East Coast) services grid .................................................................................................. 49 Table 22: Transpacific (East Coast) carryings ........................................................................................................ 50 Table 23: Services summary Far East‐North Europe route ................................................................................... 53 Table 24: Container carriers active on the Far East‐Europe route ....................................................................... 54 Table 25: Far East ports called on the Far East‐North Europe route .................................................................... 55 Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) LIST OF TABLES Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) 8 East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground
Table 26: North Europe ports called on the Far East‐North Europe route ........................................................... 56 Table 27: Far East‐North Europe services grid ...................................................................................................... 57 Table 28: Far East‐North Europe carryings ........................................................................................................... 58 Table 29: Services summary Far East‐Mediterranean route ................................................................................ 62 Table 30: Container carriers active on the Far East‐Mediterranean route .......................................................... 63 Table 31: Far East ports called on the Far East‐Mediterranean route.................................................................. 64 Table 32: Mediterranean ports called on the Far East‐Mediterranean route ...................................................... 65 Table 33: Far East‐Mediterranean services grid ................................................................................................... 66 Table 34: Far East‐Mediterranean carryings ........................................................................................................ 68 Table 35: Services summary Transatlantic (North Europe) route ........................................................................ 70 Table 36: Container carriers active on the Transatlantic (North Europe) route ................................................... 71 Table 37: North Europe ports called on the Transatlantic (North Europe) route ................................................. 72 Table 38: North America ports called on the Transatlantic (North Europe) route ............................................... 73 Table 39: Transatlantic (North Europe) services grid ........................................................................................... 74 Table 40: Transatlantic (North Europe) carryings ................................................................................................. 75 Table 41: Services summary Transatlantic (Mediterranean) route ...................................................................... 76 Table 42: Container carriers active on the Transatlantic (Mediterranean) route ................................................ 77 Table 43: Mediterranean ports called on the Transatlantic (Mediterranean) route ............................................ 77 Table 44: North America ports called on the Transatlantic (Mediterranean) route ............................................ 79 Table 45: Transatlantic (Mediterranean) services grid ......................................................................................... 80 Table 46: Transatlantic (Mediterranean) carryings .............................................................................................. 82 Table 47: Summary of vessel operating carriers across all trades ........................................................................ 83 Table 48: Summary of vessel operating carriers on the Transpacific ................................................................... 85 Table 49: Summary of vessel operating carriers on the Far East‐Europe route ................................................... 86 Table 50: Summary of vessel operating carriers on the Transatlantic route ........................................................ 87 Table 51: Transpacific volumes and shares by carrier ........................................................................................ 104 Table 52: Europe‐Far East volumes and shares by carrier .................................................................................. 105 Table 53: Transatlantic volumes by carrier ......................................................................................................... 106 Table 54: Shares of allocated Annual Trade Capacity ......................................................................................... 107 Table 55: Far East ports called – allocated Annual Trade Capacity .................................................................... 108 Table 56: North America West Coast ports called – allocated Annual Trade Capacity ...................................... 110 Table 57: North America East Coast ports called – allocated Annual Trade Capacity ........................................ 112 Table 58: North Europe ports called – allocated Annual Trade Capacity ........................................................... 113 Table 59: Mediterranean ports called – allocated Annual Trade Capacity ......................................................... 115 Table 60: Summarised East‐West ports throughput by trade‐end ..................................................................... 118 Table 61: Summarised port throughput growth rates ........................................................................................ 118 Table 62: Far East port throughputs ................................................................................................................... 119 Table 63: North America West Coast port throughputs ..................................................................................... 120 Table 64: North America East Coast port throughputs ...................................................................................... 121 Table 65: North Europe port throughputs .......................................................................................................... 122 Table 66: Mediterranean port throughputs ....................................................................................................... 123 Table 67: Summary of Alliances situation, January 2015 ................................................................................... 129 Table 68: Alliances fleet overviews (TEU) ........................................................................................................... 131 Table 69: Alliances fleet overviews (%) .............................................................................................................. 132 Table 70: Alliances service and Annual Trade Capacity overviews ..................................................................... 132 Table 71: CKYHE Alliance fleet summary (TEU) .................................................................................................. 135 Table 72: CKYHE Alliance fleet summary (%) ...................................................................................................... 135 Table 73: CKYHE Alliance ULCS fleet (included, existing and on order) by size category ................................... 136 Table 74: CKYHE Alliance services summary....................................................................................................... 136 List of Figures
9
Table 75: G6 Alliance fleet summary (TEU) ........................................................................................................ 139 Table 76: G6 Alliance fleet summary (%) ............................................................................................................ 139 Table 77: G6 Alliance ULCS fleet (included, existing and on order) by size category ......................................... 140 Table 78: G6 Alliance services list ....................................................................................................................... 141 Table 79: 2M fleet summary (indicative, TEU) ................................................................................................... 143 Table 80: 2M fleet summary (indicative, %) ....................................................................................................... 143 Table 81: 2M ULCS fleet (included, existing and on order) by size category ...................................................... 143 Table 82: 2M services list .................................................................................................................................... 144 Table 83: Ocean Three fleet summary (indicative, TEU) .................................................................................... 146 Table 84: Ocean Three fleet summary (indicative, %) ........................................................................................ 146 Table 85: Ocean Three ULCS fleet (included, existing and on order) by size category ....................................... 147 Table 86: Ocean Three services list .................................................................................................................... 147 Table 87: Summary of services not covered (Transpacific, West Coast) ............................................................ 154 Table 88: Summary of services not covered (Far East‐Mediterranean) ............................................................. 155 Table 89: Summary of services not covered (Far East‐Mediterranean) ............................................................. 155 Table 90: Summary of services not covered (Transatlantic, North Europe) ....................................................... 156 Table 91: Summary of services not covered (Transatlantic, Mediterranean) .................................................... 156 Table 92: Forecast development of East‐West carryings ................................................................................... 157 Table 93: Forecast development of Far East‐Europe trade carryings ................................................................. 157 Table 94: Forecast development of Transpacific trade carryings ....................................................................... 158 Table 95: Forecast development of Transatlantic trade carryings ..................................................................... 158 Figure 1: Key Facts and Figures – all East‐West trades ......................................................................................... 11 Figure 2: Annual Trade Capacity shares by carrier (millionaires) ......................................................................... 12 Figure 3: Summary of carriers and Annual Trade Capacities ................................................................................ 13 Figure 4: Trade‐end shares of port‐based Annual Trade Capacity ....................................................................... 14 Figure 5: Annual Trade Capacity by broad East‐West trade lane 2014 ................................................................ 15 Figure 6: Full container carryings by broad East‐West trade lane 2013 ............................................................... 16 Figure 7: East‐West carryings projection (forecast) ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 8: General East‐West trade lanes .............................................................................................................. 18 Figure 9: Main/parallel East‐West trade lanes ..................................................................................................... 19 Figure 10: Development of largest container ships .............................................................................................. 20 Figure 11: Freight rates development (SCFI) ........................................................................................................ 23 Figure 12: Freight rates development (CCFI) ........................................................................................................ 23 Figure 13: Freight rates development (CTS) ......................................................................................................... 23 Figure 14: Alliances total fleets against global container shipping fleet .............................................................. 24 Figure 15: Alliances East‐West fleets against global container shipping fleet...................................................... 25 Figure 16: Transpacific (West Coast) freight rate development, SCFI .................................................................. 43 Figure 17: Transpacific (West Coast) freight rate development, CCFI .................................................................. 43 Figure 18: Transpacific (East Coast) freight rate development, SCFI .................................................................... 50 Figure 19: Transpacific (East Coast) freight rate development, CCFI ................................................................... 51 Figure 20: Far East‐North Europe freight rate development, SCFI ....................................................................... 59 Figure 21: Far East‐North Europe freight rate development, CCFI ....................................................................... 59 Figure 22: Far East‐North Europe freight rate development, CTS ........................................................................ 60 Figure 23: Far East‐Mediterranean freight rate development, SCFI ..................................................................... 68 Figure 24: Far East‐Mediterranean freight rate development, CCFI .................................................................... 69 Figure 25: Transatlantic freight rate development, CTS ....................................................................................... 75 Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report) LIST OF FIGURES 10 East‐West Container Trades (2015): the Alliances Playground
Figure 26: Share of Far East related round‐trip Annual Trade Capacity ............................................................. 109 Figure 27: Share of North America West Coast related round‐trip Annual Trade Capacity ............................... 111 Figure 28: Share of North America East Coast related round‐trip Annual Trade Capacity ................................. 112 Figure 29: Share of North Europe related round‐trip Annual Trade Capacity .................................................... 114 Figure 30: Share of North Europe related round‐trip Annual Trade Capacity .................................................... 116 Figure 31: Alliance shares along Far East trades ................................................................................................ 148 Figure 32: Alliance shares along America trades ................................................................................................ 149 Figure 33: Alliance shares along Europe trades .................................................................................................. 149 Figure 34: +10,000 TEU containership (ULCS) fleet distribution, January 2015 ................................................. 150 Figure 35: Operators of +10,000 TEU (ULCS) containerships ............................................................................. 151 Figure 36: The 18,980 TEU CSCL Globe ............................................................................................................... 152 Figure 37: The 19,224 TEU MSC Oscar ................................................................................................................ 153 Figure 38: ULCS by size‐category ........................................................................................................................ 153 Company (Dynamar Exclusive Report)