Regional Profiles
Economic Profile – Virginia
Reports on economic conditions in Virginia
were mixed in 2014 as real gross domestic
product was virtually unchanged and per
capita income marginally increased.
Meanwhile, labor market conditions improved
as payroll employment continued to grow and
unemployment remained below the national
average. Residential real estate indicators
were mixed as home values appreciated and
the foreclosure rate fell, but the number of
new residential building permits in 2014
dropped considerably.
Economic Contribution
 Virginia was the second largest economy in the Fifth District
in 2014, with a nominal GDP of $463.6 billion and
accounting for 27.7 percent and 2.7 percent of output in the
Fifth District and the nation, respectively.
 Virginia’s gross domestic product experienced no real
growth in 2014, making it the lowest performer of any
jurisdiction in the Fifth District. Virginia only ranked above
Alaska and Mississippi in economic growth, both of which
contracted over the year.
Figure 1: Real GDP
YOY % Change
U.S.
Virginia
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1 .0
-2 .0
-3 .0
-4 .0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Figure 2: Population
U.S.
 Financial activities and professional and business services
accounted for the largest shares of any sector in 2014,
representing 19.3 percent and 19.1 percent of Virginia’s
economy, respectively. Professional and business services
output grew 0.2 percent, while the financial activities
industry contracted 0.4 percent in the year.
 The information sector reported the highest growth (4.1
percent) of any industry in 2014, but it only constituted 4.2
percent of Virginia’s economy. Construction reported the
largest contraction of any sector (4.9 percent), though it
only accounted for 3.5 percent of Virginia’s economy.
 Richmond’s economy, which experienced the fastest
expansion among metropolitan areas, grew 2.5 percent in
2013, the most recent year of data available.
Virginia
1.8
YOY % Change
1.6
1.4
1.2
Population
1.0
0.8
0.6
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND
2014
 Virginia had 8.3 million residents in 2014, accounting for
26.4 percent and 2.6 percent of the Fifth District and
national populations, respectively. Virginia matched the
national rate of 0.7 percent population growth in 2014.
ECONOMIC PROFILE
Figure 3: Payroll Employment
YOY % Change
U.S.
Virginia
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1 .0
-2 .0
-3 .0
-4 .0
-5 .0
-6 .0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Figure 4: Employment Share by Industry
2004
0.3
0.3
Natural Resources & Mining
Cons truction
4.7
Manufacturing
6.1
2.7
1.9
Financial Activities
2014
8.3
18.0
17.0
5.3
5.1
16.1
18.0
Professional & Bus iness Services
10.7
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
5.0
5.2
Other Services
8.9
9.8
13.2
18.1
18.7
Government
0.0
5.0
10.0
Percent
15.0
20.0
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Figure 5: Change in Employment by Industry (Dec 14)
Natural Resources & Mining
Cons truction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Bus iness Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
-6.1
1.6
1.0
2.0
-1.5
0.1
0.6
0.9
2.1
1.3
0.4
-8 .0
-6 .0
-4 .0
-2 .0
0.0
2.0
4.0
YOY % Change
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Figure 6: Unemployment Rate
U.S.
Virginia
12.0
10.0
Percent
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
2
August 2015
 The share of the Virginia population that is of working age
(between the ages of 16 and 64) fell 0.3 percentage point to
66.6 percent while the retirement age population share
(aged 65 and older) grew 0.4 percentage point to 13.4
percent in 2013, the most recent year of data available.
6.4
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Information
 Every MSA in Virginia reported positive population growth
in 2014 except for Kingsport, which posted a decline of 0.1
percent. Harrisonburg and Richmond grew the fastest of
Virginia’s MSAs, each posting population growth of 1.1
percent.
 The Washington, D.C. MSA, the most populous metropolitan
area in the state, had a population of 6.0 million and grew
1.1 percent in 2014, the equivalent of 66,561 new residents.
Labor Market Conditions
 Virginia had 3.8 million workers in December 2014, which
accounted for 26.9 percent of Fifth District payroll
employment and 2.7 percent of national employment.
 Virginia’s labor market continued to improve as total
nonfarm payroll employment grew 1.0 percent and
employers added 38,200 jobs over the year ending in
December 2014; however, this lagged behind both the Fifth
District growth of 2.0 percent and the national increase of
2.3 percent.
 The government sector made up the largest portion of the
Virginia economy, accounting for 20.1 percent of nonfarm
payroll employment in December 2014. The sector grew 0.4
percent, the equivalent of 2,800 jobs, since December 2013.
 All industries except for mining/logging and information
posted year-over-year gains in employment in December
2014. In particular, leisure and hospitality noted an increase
of 2.1 percent (7,700 jobs) which was the largest percentage
increase of any industry. Trade, transportation, and utilities
created the most jobs over the year, adding 13,100 jobs in
the state.
 Employment in Virginia’s goods producing sector expanded
1.1 percent in 2014, but lagged the national growth rate of
3.1 percent. Similarly, the service providing sector expanded
1.0 percent in Virginia, compared to 2.1 percent nationally.
ECONOMIC PROFILE
Figure 7: Unemployment Rate by Metro Area
December 2 013
8.0
7.0
6.0
Percent
5.0
December 2 014
7.27.0
5.5
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.0
7.2
5.8 5.6
4.34.2
4.9
4.7
6.3
5.4
5.1
5.3
5.0
5.6
5.3 4.9
4.6
3.0
2.0
 Every MSA in Virginia reported positive employment growth
over the year ending December 2014, with Charlottesville
posting the largest growth of 6.1 percent or 6,400 jobs.
 The Washington, D.C. MSA had the best performance of all
metro areas in the state on an absolute basis by adding
43,200 jobs, increasing 1.4 percent from December 2013 to
December 2014.
1.0
0.0
Household Conditions
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Figure 8: Real Per Capita Income
YOY % Change
U.S.
Virginia
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1 .0
-2 .0
-3 .0
-4 .0
-5 .0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Figure 9: Nominal Per Capita Income by County (2013)
Highest P er Capita Inco me
Lo west P er Capita Inco me
County
Per
Capit a
Income
($)
YoY %
Change
Count y
Per
Capit a
Income
($)
YoY %
Change
Arlingt on
82,736
2.1
Patrick
28,196
3.7
Alexandria
81,078
3.0
Lee
28,030
-0.9
Goochland
73,930
13.0
Grayson
27,381
2.3
Loudoun
59,729
3.4
Buckingham
26,877
4.0
Fauquier
56,814
2.7
Prince Edward
24,667
2.9
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Figure 10: Building Permits Issued
U.S.
Virginia
80.0
YOY % Change
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-2 0.0
-4 0.0
-6 0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 The unemployment rate in Virginia was 4.8 percent in
December 2014, which was the lowest in the Fifth District
and the 17th lowest in the nation.
 In December 2014, the labor force participation rate in
Virginia was 65.4 percent, its lowest point since 1982 but
higher than the national rate of 62.7 percent.
 Among Virginia’s MSAs, Charlottesville posted the lowest
unemployment rate of 4.2 percent in December 2014, while
Lynchburg reported the highest unemployment rate of 5.8
percent.
 Virginia’s nominal per capita income was $49,710 in 2014,
ranking 12th highest nationally.
 Real per capita income in Virginia rose 0.4 percent in 2014,
which lagged the Fifth District per capita income growth of
1.0 percent as well as the 1.7 percent national rate.
 In 2013, the most recent year of data available, the
Washington, D.C. MSA reported the highest nominal per
capita income among metro areas in Virginia of $61,507
while Blacksburg posted the lowest nominal per capita
income of $32,174.
 Among MSAs, Blacksburg reported the highest real per
capita income growth of 4.1 percent in 2013. Meanwhile,
the Washington, D.C. MSA posted a real per capita income
decline of 1.9 percent in 2013.
 In 2013, Arlington County reported a nominal per capita
income of $82,736, the highest among counties in Virginia.
Prince Edward County reported a nominal per capita
income of $24,667, the lowest of any county in Virginia.
 Virginia’s poverty rate was 10.4 percent in 2013, the 7th
lowest rate in the nation and the second lowest in the Fifth
District behind Maryland’s 10.3 percent. It was also
considerably lower than the national rate of 14.5 percent.
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
August 2015
3
ECONOMIC PROFILE
Real Estate Conditions
Figure 11: House Price Index
U.S.
Virginia
25.0
YOY % Change
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5 .0
-1 0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics
Figure 12: 90+ Day Mortgage Delinquency Rate
U.S.
Virginia
6.0
5.0
4.0
Percent
 Virginia issued 28,762 new private building permits in 2014,
which was 8.3 percent fewer than the number issued in
2013. Meanwhile, permitting activity increased 6.4 percent
nationally.
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
 House prices in Virginia rose 4.3 percent on a year-over-year
basis in the fourth quarter of 2014, the largest growth since
before the recession.
 House prices increased on a year-over-year basis in every
metropolitan area in Virginia in the fourth quarter of 2014,
led by the Washington, D.C. MSA where home values
appreciated 6.0 percent.
 The 90+ day mortgage delinquency rate in Virginia fell 0.2
percentage point from the fourth quarter in 2013 to 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 and declined 1.8
percentage points from its 3.6 percent peak in the first
quarter of 2012.
 In the fourth quarter of 2014, the foreclosure inventory rate
was 0.9 percent, its lowest point since the third quarter of
2007 and the 8th lowest foreclosure rate in the nation.
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
Figure 13: Foreclosure Inventory Rate
U.S.
Virginia
5.0
Percent
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics
Report prepared by Andrew Tynes, Regional Research Summer Intern
4
August 2015
CONTACT: Michael Stanley
DEPARTMENT: Research/Regional
PHONE: 804.697.8927
EMAIL: Michael.Stanley@rich.frb.org