Financial Institutions I: The Economics of Banking Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel Gutenberg School of Management and Economics Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Summer term 2011 Monday 2.15 p.m. - 3.45 p.m., Tuesday 2.15 p.m. - 3.45 p.m., RW 3 V1 1 / 44 I. Introduction I.1. Topic and Objectives of the Course I.2. Organization of the Course II. Do Financial Institutions Matter? II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks II.2. The Functions of Banks II.3. Empirical Evidence 2 / 44 I. Introduction I.1. Topic and Objectives of the Course I.2. Organization of the Course II. Do Financial Institutions Matter? II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks II.2. The Functions of Banks II.3. Empirical Evidence 3 / 44 I.1. Topic of the Course ◮ Traditionally, financial intermediaries (such as banks) play no role in economic literature ◮ Argument: When markets are perfect and complete (world of Arrow-Debreu), there is no added value from financial intermediation ⇔ But: Banks appear to be very important in practice ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Bank loans are the most important form of external financing → Impact on innovation activities and economic growth Banks play an important role in providing means of payment (especially deposits) and payment systems Banks act as market makers in financial markets Banks advise households and firms in investment decisions ... 4 / 44 Asymmetric Information ◮ ◮ 1970s: Revolution of economic theory through the discovery of the importance of asymmetric information in many economic problems Bank relationships are characterized by a high degree of asymmetric information ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Banks ↔ borrowers Banks ↔ depositors Bank owners ↔ bank managers Theory of asymmetric information has profoundly changed banking theory and has now become the standard foundation of any banking model 5 / 44 Objectives of the Course ◮ Broad overview of the theory of banking: Why do banks exist? How do they behave (competitive behavior, risk-taking)? . . . ◮ Discussion of topics relevant to economic policy: Why are banks unstable? Why have banks to be regulated? How should banks be regulated? . . . ◮ Students shall be introduced to current research as well as policy discussions in this area ◮ Such knowledge is also useful if you plan to work in the financial sector ◮ Prior knowledge in contract theory, economics of information, bank management, and econometrics is useful, but not required (course is self-contained) 6 / 44 I. Introduction I.1. Topic and Objectives of the Course I.2. Organization of the Course II. Do Financial Institutions Matter? II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks II.2. The Functions of Banks II.3. Empirical Evidence 7 / 44 I.2. Organization of the Course ◮ Monday afternoon: Lecture or tutorial ◮ Tuesday afternoon: Lecture ◮ Tutorials are held by Florian Hett (florian.hett@uni-mainz.de) ◮ Course website: http://www.financial.economics.uni-mainz.de/441.php ◮ All course material (slides, additional literature etc.) can be downloaded from that website ◮ Login/password are announced in class 8 / 44 How to Contact Us ◮ Please do not hesitate to ask questions in class - your fellow students will appreciate this ◮ You may also ask questions directly after the course ◮ Please do not send emails with questions with regard to the content of the course ◮ Last lecture: Question time concerning all parts of the course ◮ Suggestions how to improve the course are welcome at any time ◮ We strongly encourage you to participate actively in class ◮ In order to stay informed, please subscribe to our Newsboard (see website) ◮ We also invite you to subscribe to the newsboard of the Brown Bag Seminar (our internal research seminar) 9 / 44 Who can Participate ◮ MIEPP students: 6 LP ◮ ◮ ◮ MoM students: 6 LP ◮ ◮ ◮ Module “Financial economics” Can be combined with “Topics in Financial Economics” (winter term) or “Empirical Banking and Finance” (next summer term) Module “Financial institutions” Can be combined with “Topics in Financial Institutions” (winter term) or “Empirical Banking and Finance” (next summer term) Diploma students (VWL, BWL, Magister): 6 KP ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Kernfach Volkswirtschaftspolitik/Volkswirtschaftstheorie Wahlfach Weder AVWL Please note that you cannot get credit if you already participated in the course “Mikroökonomik des Bankwesens” 10 / 44 Reading Materials ◮ Detailed information on related literature is given in class ◮ Required reading is marked by a star (*) ◮ Modern textbook on banking theory: “The Microeconomics of Banking” by Xavier Freixas and Jean-Charles Rochet, MIT Press 2008 (2nd edition) ◮ Main references will be journal articles (which will be provided on our website) ◮ Goal: At the end of this course, students should be able to read and understand research articles from the area of banking and to discuss current policy issues related to the financial sector ◮ Course is an excellent preparation for writing a thesis in this field 11 / 44 Final Exam ◮ There will be a written final exam covering all parts of the course ◮ Exam questions are in English, diploma and MoM students (but not MIEPP students) will be allowed to answer in German ◮ You can bring one piece of paper on which you can write anything that you find hard to remember ◮ Please note that the retake exam is taking place at the end of the summer break (also for diploma students!) 12 / 44 ◮ Any questions? 13 / 44 I. Introduction I.1. Topic and Objectives of the Course I.2. Organization of the Course II. Do Financial Institutions Matter? II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks II.2. The Functions of Banks II.3. Empirical Evidence 14 / 44 II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks ◮ Reading material: Freixas/Rochet, p. 7–11 ◮ Assumptions of perfect and complete markets: ◮ Completeness of the market system (Arrow/Debreu markets) ◮ ◮ No transaction costs, indivisibilities, trading restrictions, taxes ◮ ◮ Sufficient condition: For each state of the world, there exists a security (“contingent claim”), which has a positive payoff in this state of the world and no payoff otherwise Financial contracts (i. e., combinations of payment streams) can be traded freely and in any quantity (also short sales, no minimum trade volumes) No informational asymmetries ◮ All market participants are subject to the same information (which does not have to be complete) 15 / 44 Banks in General Equilibrium - A Simple Model ◮ Assumptions of the model: ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ 2 periods, t = 1, 2 1 good Perfect competition 3 (representative) agents: households (h), firms (f ), banks (b) 16 / 44 Maximization Problem of Households ◮ Households are endowed with ω1 units of the good → can be consumed or saved ◮ Household choose their consumption profile over time (C1 , C2 ) and the allocation of savings to bank deposits (Dh ) and bonds (Bh ) to maximize their utility ◮ Household are the owners of firms and banks ◮ r = interest rate on bonds, rD = interest rate on bank deposits ◮ Maximization problem of households: max u(C1 , C2 ) s.t. C1 + Bh + Dh = ω1 C2 = (1 + r )Bh + (1 + rD ) Dh + Πf + Πb 17 / 44 Maximization Problem of Firms ◮ Firms choose investment I and finance investment through bank loans (Lf ) and bonds (Bf ) to maximize profits ◮ Production function: f (I ) ◮ rL = interest rate on bank loans ◮ Profits Πf are distributed to households in period 2 ◮ Maximization problem of firms: max Πf = f (I ) − (1 + r )Bf − (1 + rL )Lf s.t. I = Bf + Lf 18 / 44 Maximization Problem of Banks ◮ Banks extend loans (Lb ) and finance through deposits (Db ) to maximize profits ◮ Assumption: Banks do not finance through bonds (Bb = 0) ◮ Profits Πb are distributed to households in period 2 ◮ Maximization problem of banks: max Πb = rL Lb − rD Db s.t. Lb = Db 19 / 44 General Equilibrium ◮ ◮ Endogenous variables: Prices (interest rates r , rD , rL ) and quantities (C1 , C2 , Bh , Bf , Dh , Db , Lf , Lb , I ) A general equilibrium is charaterized by two conditions: 1. All agents behave optimally. 2. All markets are cleared. ◮ Market clearing: ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Goods market: Investment = savings, I = ω1 − C1 Deposit market: Supply = demand, Dh = Db Loan market: Supply = demand, Lb = Lf Bond market: Supply = demand, Bf = Bh 20 / 44 General Equilibrium ◮ Bonds and deposits are perfect substitutes for households ⇒ r = rD ◮ Bonds and loans are perfect substitutes for firms ⇒ r = rL ◮ Result 1: In general equilibrium, all interest rates have to be equal, r = rL = rD ⇒ Banks make zero profits (independent of competition) ◮ Result 2: Given Result 1, B, L and D appear only in the combination B + D = B + L ⇒ Thus, they cannot be determined separately because all agents are indifferent between different types of investment/financing ◮ In this sense, banks are “irrelevant” (cf. Modigliani/Miller Theorem, 1958, on the irrelevance of capital structure) 21 / 44 Extension to a World with Uncertainty ◮ Each market participant can realize any desired stream of payments by buying and selling securities (“contingent claims”) ◮ This implies that bank deposits or bank loans can be replicated by a combination of “contingent claims” → For the allocation in the economy it is irrelevant whether deposits and loans exist or not ⇒ Banks are also “irrelevant” in a world with uncertainty ◮ Conclusion: The existence of banks can only be explained in a framework where at least one assumption of the Arrow-Debreu model is violated, such that different types of investment and financing are no longer perfect substitutes 22 / 44 I. Introduction I.1. Topic and Objectives of the Course I.2. Organization of the Course II. Do Financial Institutions Matter? II.1. The Irrelevance of Banks II.2. The Functions of Banks II.3. Empirical Evidence 23 / 44 II.2. The Functions of Banks ◮ ◮ Reading material: Freixas/Rochet, p. 1–7 Traditional view of banks: ◮ ◮ Asset side of balance sheet: Extension of long-term, information-sensitive, non-tradable loans Liabilities side of balance sheet: Financing through short-term, non-securitized deposits (often sight deposits) ◮ Even though bank activities are much broader than suggested by this simplistic description, the combination of these two activities makes banks special ◮ Financial innovation (such as money market funds or credit risk transfer) substantially challenges this traditional business model 24 / 44 Legal Definition of Banks, here: Kreditwesengesetz (KWG), § 1 (1) Kreditinstitute sind Unternehmen, die Bankgeschäfte gewerbsmäßig oder in einem Umfang betreiben, der einen in kaufmännischer Weise eingerichteten Geschäftsbetrieb erfordert. Bankgeschäfte sind 1. die Annahme fremder Gelder als Einlagen oder anderer rückzahlbarer Gelder des Publikums, sofern der Rückzahlungsanspruch nicht in Inhaber- oder Orderschuldverschreibungen verbrieft wird, ohne Rücksicht darauf, ob Zinsen vergütet werden (Einlagengeschäft), 2. die Gewährung von Gelddarlehen und Akzeptkrediten (Kreditgeschäft), 3. ... ⇒Major bank activities: Taking in deposits and extending loans 25 / 44 Banking Regulation ◮ ◮ Firms that conform with the definition of banks in the applicable banking law are subject to strict regulation and supervision, in Germany by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank Types of regulation: ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Barriers to market entry (license requirements) Capital requirements (Basel Accord, Basel II or III) Liquidity regulation Regulation of lending (loan volume restrictions, reporting requirements on large loans) Deposit insurance 26 / 44 Why Banks Are Regulated 1. Systemic risk: The failure of an individual bank may spill over to the remaining banking sector (financial contagion), breakdown of financial systems has high economic costs ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Experience from the Great Depression: Strong recession was attributed (among other things) to the breakdown of the financial system A large part of current banking regulation and supervision stems from that time period Recent financial crisis underlines the importance of the financial system for the real economy Systemic externalities justify government intervention 2. Protection of depositors: Depositors are too small and uninformed to monitor their bank properly 27 / 44 Banks versus Markets ◮ Main function of the financial system: matching investors and borrowers ◮ What distinguishes banks and markets? What can financial intermediaries do that market cannot? Major functions of banks: ◮ 1. Provision of payment systems 2. Transformation of assets a Lot size transformation b Maturity transformation c Risk transformation 28 / 44 II.2.1. Provision of Payment Systems ◮ In a world without transaction costs, money is not needed ◮ But: In reality, barter transactions are very expensive, problem of the “double coincidence of needs” → Use of money is efficient ◮ The role of banks in the payment system changed with the different types of money used 29 / 44 Types of Money ◮ ◮ Goods, such as specie (gold, silver), but also cigarettes Fiat money, especially paper money ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Money is valuable only because some institution guarantees its value This can be private banks (“bank notes”), today it would typically be a central bank It is crucial that agents trust in the value of money: in earlier times this worked through explicit gold coverage of the circulating currency, today through central banks’ reputation of being committed to price stability in its monetary policy “Bank money” = deposits at banks that can be transferred through cashless payments 30 / 44 Historical Functions of Banks in the Payment System 1. Banks as money changers 2. Banks as safe-keepers (deposit business) 3. Banks as producers of bank money 4. Banks as issuers of paper money 31 / 44 1. Banks as Money Changers ◮ Circulation of a large variety of coins ◮ Coins were not accepted everywhere → Banks exchanged different coins (especially at international market places and fairs) ◮ Content of precious metal was hard to check → Banks specialized in sorting out “good” from “bad” coins (in England, early bankers were goldsmiths) 32 / 44 2. Banks as Safe-Keepers (Deposit Business) ◮ ◮ Banks acted as safe-keepers of coins or bullion and were obliged to return the same objects that had been deposited Why was this useful? ◮ ◮ Protection against theft, fire etc. Banks specialized in storage technologies (building of safes etc.) → Economies of scale ◮ In later periods, banks promised to return not the same, but comparable objects, which reduced transaction costs ◮ Initially, the deposited coins were not lent (no loan business) 33 / 44 3. Banks as Producers of Bank Money ◮ A next step in the evolution of banks was the keeping of accounts ◮ Delivered coins were credited on accounts ◮ Money could be transferred to other accounts within the same bank ◮ But: No overdrawing ◮ Famous example of such a bank: Bank of Amsterdam (founded 1609) (see Adam Smith 1776, Wealth of Nations, Book IV, Chapter III, Part I) ◮ Clearing systems among different banks developed much later (Germany vs. USA) 34 / 44 Bank of Amsterdam ◮ Delivered coins were credited in a currency created by the bank itself (“Bankgeld”) (no physical production) ◮ Bank money traded at a premium (agio) compared to circulating money, the quality of which was mostly below the current money standard ◮ Bank was subject to a public guarantee ◮ In the 18th century, Amsterdam bank money became the lead currency in international trade (comparable to the US dollar today) ◮ Payments were done through bills of exchange, nominated in Amsterdam bank money ◮ Loans were also granted through bills of exchange (most of which were closely related to trade transactions) 35 / 44 4. Banks as Issuers of Paper Money ◮ Towards the end of the 18th century / beginning of the 19th century, metallic money was increasingly replaced by paper money (“fiat money”) (lower transaction costs) ◮ “Bank notes” were issued by the banks themselves (today: only by central banks) ◮ Famous example: U.S. Free Banking Era (1837–1862), see Gorton (Journal of Political Economy 1996) 36 / 44 Summary ◮ Historically, banks’ loan business with private creditors was negligible ◮ ◮ Loan business started only in the 19th century (exception: pawn shops) Loan business with sovereign debtors is much older (example: house of Fugger) ◮ The modern version of a bank that combines loan and deposit business is a rather recent phenomenon ◮ Question: Why is such a combination optimal (and why was is not in earlier times)? Alternative: Two different banks, one of which takes in deposits and buys bonds, whereas the other extends loans and finances through bonds ◮ ◮ Such a division of labor was observed in the 19th century between private bankers and savings banks in Germany 37 / 44 II.2.2. Transformation of Assets ◮ A “modern” bank transforms small, liquid, safe deposits into large, illiquid, information-sensitive/risky loans (Gurley/Shaw 1960): 1. Lot size transformation 2. Maturity transformation 3. Risk transformation ◮ Question: Under which conditions can banks fulfill a function that cannot just as well be fulfilled by capital markets? 38 / 44 1. Lot Size Transformation ◮ Loan amounts are typically larger than investment volumes ◮ Financial intermediaries bring together large and small players by pooling small deposits to be able to extend large loans 39 / 44 2. Maturity Transformation ◮ Loans are often long-term (e. g., for investment projects) and cannot be liquidated at short notice without incurring substantial losses ◮ Depositors want to access their funds at any time Consequence: ◮ ◮ ◮ The bank is itself illiquid → Danger of bank runs (Diamond/Dybvig, Journal of Political Economy 1983) The bank is subject to interest rate risk from maturity transformation → When interest rates rise, funding rates adjust immediately, but not loan rates (cf. Savings & Loans crisis in the United States in the 1980s, see also the liquidity problems of special purpose vehicles in the recent crisis) 40 / 44 3. Risk Transformation ◮ Loans are risky and suffer from various informational problems, but depositors are looking for safe investments ◮ Depositors acquire a claim towards their bank, not towards the borrower ◮ Why can banks offer a better risk-return trade-off than the capital market (Diamond, Review of Economic Studies 1984)? ◮ How do banks deal with information problems? → Monitoring, long-term relationships 41 / 44 Banks versus Markets ◮ Financial markets also fulfill the three functions: 1. Lot size transformation: Total security flotation vs. trading of single shares, but: minimum fees make the trading of small quantities unattractive 2. Maturity transformation: Through secondary markets → Here the investor bears the risk of price/interest changes (which he may not like) 3. Risk transformation: Through diversification or special products tailored to the risk appetite of investors (e. g., minimum interest rates etc.), but: small firms cannot easily enter the capital market due to information problems 42 / 44 Recent Trends in the Financial Sector ◮ Disintermediation: ◮ ◮ ◮ Increasing interconnectedness of the financial system: ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ ◮ Firms increasingly finance through markets Growing importance of investments in securities for households (e. g., old-age provisions), firms, and also banks Consolidation: Increasing significance of large banks through large-scale mergers, also cross-border (partly caused by the financial crisis) Conglomeration: Merger of banks and insurance companies to form large, global bancassurance companies Credit risk transfer: Transfer of banks’ credit risks to third parties through securitization (e. g., Mortgage-Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations/CDO) or credit derivatives (e. g., Credit Default Swaps/CDS) Increasing Complexity of financial products → New role of banks as advisors Development of a largely unregulated shadow banking system 43 / 44 Program of Next Week ◮ ◮ II.3. Do Financial Institutions Matter? - Empirical Evidence III. Why Do Banks Exist? ◮ ◮ III.1.: Transaction costs (Freixas/Rochet, p. 15–20) III.2: Liquidity insurance, model by *Diamond and Dybvig (Journal of Political Economy, 1983) (Freixas/Rochet, p. 20–24) 44 / 44