“Your Source for New Construction Real Estate Information”
Serving Puget Sound, Portland Metro, Salem, Spokane and Boise
Monthly Monitor Report
Puget Sound Market, WA
June 2012
4314 148th Street Southeast, Bothell, Washington 98012
425-742-8040
www.NewHomeTrends.com
King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston,
Kitsap, and Skagit Counties, WA
6/14/2012
New Home Trends Inc.
Monthly Monitor
Puget Sound (WA) Market
New Construction - Single-Family Residential Real Estate
Unsold Available Spec Homes
Remaining Months of Unsold Spec Inventory
(based on 12 mos sales)
3,000
6
4.8
1,958
2,000
1,782
1,901
1,675
1,000
3.9
3.8
4
3.3
2
0
0
May-2011
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
% of Change from Last Year
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
May-2012
-30.7%
% of Change from Last Year
-14.5%
New Home Sales Written by Year
8,000
May-2011
May-2012
New Home Sales Written by Month
1000
6,577
6,048
6,000
800
4,908
4,907
778
772
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
655
563
600
4,000
400
2,000
200
0
May-2008:Apr2009
May-2009:Apr2010
May-2010:Apr2011
% of Change from Last Year
$450,000
May-2011:Apr2012
0
Apr-2011
23.2%
Median New Home Sales Price by Year
Feb-2012
% of Change from Last Year
$450,000
37.1%
Median New Home Sales Price by Month
$355,000
$350,000
$350,000
$289,990
$285,000
$299,990
$302,800
$304,970
$300,665
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
$278,985
$250,000
$250,000
$150,000
$150,000
2009
2010
2011
% of Change from Last Year
© 2012 New Home Trends Inc.
www.newhometrends.com
2012
5.3%
Apr-2011
% of Change from Last Year
7.8%
Cory Crossman
(425) 953-4713
cory@newhometrends.com
King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston,
Kitsap, and Skagit Counties, WA
6/14/2012
New Home Trends Inc.
Monthly Monitor
Puget Sound (WA) Market
New Construction - Single-Family Residential Real Estate
# of New Lots Applied for and # of New Lots Recorded (Detached Single Family Product)
500
New Lots Applied For
# of Lots
387
366
400
New Lots Recorded
300
234
200
165
100
101
78
51
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
19
0
Apr-2011
Feb-2012
-49.5%
New Lots Applied for % of Change from Last Year
New Lots Recorded % of Change from Last Year
-54.9%
*Resale - Single Family Residential Real Estate
*Resale Sales
4,000
3,620
3,333
Resale Sales
$275,133
Median Sales Price
3,701
$350,000
$300,000
$289,736
2,793
$265,331
$246,963
$250,000
$200,000
2,000
$150,000
$100,000
1,000
$50,000
0
$0
Apr-2011
Resale Sales % of Change from Last Year
Feb-2012
11.0%
Mar-2012
Apr-2012
Median Price Resale Sales % of Change from Last Year
5.3%
* Median sales price is a weighted average of each counties median sales price
© 2012 New Home Trends Inc.
www.newhometrends.com
Cory Crossman
(425) 953-4713
cory@newhometrends.com
*Median Sales Price
3,000
*Resale Sales
King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston,
Kitsap, and Skagit Counties, WA
6/14/2012
New Home Trends Inc.
Monthly Monitor
Puget Sound (WA) Market
Single Family Building Permits Issued
10,000
Building Permits Issued by Year
7,440
7,500
Building Permits Issued by Month
1,000
6,555
7,225
853
800
666
795
602
600
5,000
2,724
2,500
400
200
0
0
2009
2010
2,011
2012 (Jan. Apr.)
Apr-2011
Feb-2012
Mar-2012
% of Change from Last Year
Apr-2012
19.4%
Employment & Foreclosures
Unemployment Rate
Apr-11
Feb-12
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
8.7
7.8
Mar-12
7.5
Apr-12
6.4
Employment
Apr-11
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
1,345,415 1,370,880 1,384,190 1,401,220
Change
13,310
17,030
Washington State
-2.3
Change from
last year
55,805
U-6 Labor Underutilization*
2010
2011
2Q2011 18.4%
17.8%
17.6%
Washington State Foreclosures
Apr-11
Feb-12
Properties with Foreclosure Filings
3,937
1,824
© 2012 New Home Trends Inc.
www.newhometrends.com
Change from
last year
Mar-12
2,022
Apr-12
1,825
Change from
last year
-54%
Cory Crossman
(425) 953-4713
cory@newhometrends.com
King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston,
Kitsap, and Skagit Counties, WA
6/14/2012
New Home Trends Inc.
Monthly Monitor
Puget Sound (WA) Market
Employment by Industry
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett MSA
Industry
Apr-11
Apr-12
Goods Producing
213,900
230,700
1,164,700 1,204,000
Service Providing
800
700
Mining, Logging, and Construction
58,900
65,800
Construction
154,200
164,200
Manufacturing
127,700
137,600
Durable Goods Mfg
26,500
26,600
NonDurable Goods Mfg
250,000
260,600
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
67,500
68,800
Wholesale Trade
136,300
143,300
Retail Trade
46,200
48,500
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
84,900
85,000
Information
76,600
79,000
Financial Activities
205,000
212,600
Professional and Business Services
167,900
172,700
Educational and Health Services
127,600
138,000
Leisure and Hospitality
49,300
53,000
Other Services
203,400
203,100
Government
Source: Washington State Employment Security Department
% of
Change
8%
3%
-13%
12%
6%
8%
0%
4%
2%
5%
5%
0%
3%
4%
3%
8%
8%
0%
Out of State Drivers Licenses Surrendered By County, By State of Origin (May-2011:Apr-2012)
FROM / TO
CALIFORNIA
OREGON
TEXAS
FLORIDA
ARIZONA
NORTH CAROLINA
COLORADO
MICHIGAN
NEW YORK
ILLINOIS
NEVADA
GEORGIA
IDAHO
VIRGINIA
UTAH
HAWAII
ALASKA
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
MINNESOTA
© 2012 New Home Trends Inc.
www.newhometrends.com
Puget Sound
Total
Rank
17,640
1
6,107
2
5,801
3
4,296
4
3,888
5
3,077
6
2,816
7
2,797
8
2,629
9
2,430
10
2,298
11
2,258
12
2,015
13
1,988
14
1,817
15
1,795
16
1,602
17
1,504
18
1,444
19
1,386
20
Cory Crossman
(425) 953-4713
cory@newhometrends.com
King, Pierce, Snohomish, Thurston,
Kitsap, and Skagit Counties, WA
6/14/2012
New Home Trends Inc.
Monthly Monitor
Puget Sound (WA) Market
Detached Single Family New Home Closed Sales - US and Puget Sound
Detached Single Family New Home Closed Sales by Month
120,000
1,400
New Home Closed Sales - US
100,000
Puget Sound
1,200
1,000
80,000
800
60,000
600
40,000
400
20,000
200
New Home Closed Sales - Puget
Sound
US
0
0
1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012
Month - Year
US Source: US Census, Puget Sound Source: New Home Trends
Detached Single Family Building Permits Issued - US and Puget Sound
150,000
Detached Single Family Building Permits Issued by Month
2,000
US
Building Permits - US
1,500
100,000
1,000
50,000
500
Building Permits - Puget Sound
Puget Sound
0
0
1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012
Month - Year
© 2012 New Home Trends Inc.
www.newhometrends.com
Cory Crossman
(425) 953-4713
cory@newhometrends.com
Company Profile
Data and Research - “Informed Choices - Not Chances”
If you are part of – or affected by – the residential real estate industry,
NewHomeTrends will provide a competitive advantage to help you stay ahead
of the market.
NewHomeTrends’ combination of expertise, experience and knowledge can
help you gain confidence with virtually any development, building, or sales
and marketing situation. Our team approach taps the talents of builders,
developers, government officials, sales and marketing professionals, and
financial institutions to give you a complete picture of the market.
It starts with an extensive database that is updated daily. NewHomeTrends
tracks almost all data related to the residential building industry, including
plat submittals/approvals, construction start dates, lot sizes, square footages,
selling prices, amenities, sales and closings.
We gather this information the old-fashioned way; by personal, face-to-face
contact with builders, realtors, and city and county officials. We have the “feet
on the street” to search through jurisdiction records, visit sites, track
published information, and conduct focus groups and other surveys.
By utilizing our website, you can access the most current information available
regarding new residential construction 24/7. Our database is more
comprehensive than ever, offering:
•
Detailed information on residential new housing construction
•
Complete tracking for each community from plat submittal to final
closing
•
Continual updates for active communities
•
A comprehensive selection of reports for your business solutions.
Consulting and Custom Reporting – “If you don’t know, don’t build!”
Data itself is not knowledge. Knowledge comes from interpreting data and
understanding how it might impact the real estate industry. Our experience,
vision, and understanding of the marketplace allow us to provide both
quantitative and qualitative reports and make realistic recommendations to
our clients for successful projects.
We tell our clients what they need to hear, even if it isn’t what they want to
hear. While this may not make us the most popular folks at the table, it
certainly makes us among the most valuable.
NewHomeTrends Consulting Services
Market
Research
•
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Master
Planned
Communities
•
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Feasibility
Studies
•
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Trend tracking
Absorption studies
Market intelligence
Market opportunity
analysis
Pricing strategies
Feasibility analysis
Master plan strategies
Land acquisition
consultation
Buyer identification
Land
Planning
Assistance
•
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Lot sizing
Lot evaluation
Market segmentation
Phasing
Street layout
Entrance
Footprint–Placement
Amenities
Buyer identification
Absorption projection
Demographics
Market segmentation
Competitive analysis
Phasing
Amenities research
Absorption projection
prospective buyers
Team participation
Consumer
Attitude
Surveys
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Exit surveys
Post closing surveys
Focus groups
New product acceptance
New home owner analysis
Product
Development
Analysis
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Site evaluation
Product evaluation
Marketing evaluation
Hourly consulting
Marketing
•
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Specifications
Pricing strategy & phasing
Positioning, theme & image
Sales office
Upside issues
Downside issues
Market niche targeting
Identification of buyer
trends
New Home Trends
Is Committed
To Providing
The Best
•
•
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Team players
Extensive database
Flexibility
Market knowledge
Information you can build on!
New Home Trends Clients
We are pleased to have served large and small builders, major developers of
master-planned communities, financial institutions, and others involved in the
residential building industry. Some of the companies that have relied on us
are:
Developers
Aoki Corporation
Finkbeiner Development
Intracorp
Jaquith Development
Jenamar
Marathon Development
Mt. Vernon Associates
Newland Communities
Northwest Commercial
Novastar Enterprises, Inc.
Olympic Resources
Olympic Property Group
Pacific Land Management
Pope Resources
Port Blakely Communities
Quadrant Land
Star Development
Triad
Tucci & Sons
Ueki America Corporation
Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Co.
Master Planned Communities
Cascadia
Harbor Ridge
Northwest Landing
Sunrise
Lakeland
Blakely Ridge
Klahanie
Northridge
Snoqualmie Ridge
Glen Eagle
Harbour Pointe
Port Ludlow
McCormick Woods
Meridian Campus
Thurston Highlands
Overlake in Utah
Briggs Village
Issaquah Highlands
The Lakes at Black Diamond
East Village
Port Gamble
Villbois
Redevelopment Projects
High Point
New Holly
Othello Station
Rainier Vista
Westpark
Sales and Marketing Companies
Windermere–Ryness
Team Builder–John L. Scott
Williams Marketing
Miller Condominium Marketing
Windermere On-Site
Builders
Arbor Homes
Bennett Homes
John F. Buchan Homes
Wm. Buchan Homes
Burnstead Construction
Brownstone Homes
Carino Homes
CamWest Development, Inc.
Centex
Conner Development
Crest Builders
Dally Development
Fortune Development
Capstone Homes, Inc.
Henderson Homes
Intracorp
J. Scott Development
Jefferson Homes
Lexington Fine Homes
Lozier Homes
Lyle Homes
McCaugherty Companies
Newhall Jones, Inc.
Pan-Terra Homes
Quadrant Homes
Shea Homes
Stafford Homes
Lancaster Homes
Wallace Properties
Willamette Builders Group
Triad
Public Offices, Financial
Institutions and Others
Bank of America
City of Mercer Island
City of Renton
City of Tacoma
City of Kent
City of Everett
City of Seattle
Seattle EDC
Cohen Financial
Homestreet Bank
Resmark
Carlyle Group
Price Waterhouse
Renton School District
Threshold Housing
Master Builders Assoc. of Pierce
County
Master Builders Assoc. of King &
Snohomish Counties
Security Capital Pacific Trust
Hearthstone Advisors
Heartland
Schnitzer
Seattle First National Bank
Bremerton Housing Authority
Seattle Housing Authority
King County Housing Authority
Architectural Firms
Mithun
Rice Fergus Miller
GGLO