Appendix C:
Market
Readiness
Overview
INTEGRATED PLANNING & PUBLIC WORKS
Market Readiness Overview
Contents:
1. Introduction
2. Market Readiness Factors
3. Three Residential Submarkets
4. Active Condominium Apartment Projects
5. Recently Active University Submarket Projects
6. Proposed Condominium Apartment Projects
7. Office Market Overview
8. Institutional and Industrial Market Overview
9. Market Trends and Outlook
10. Market Readiness Summary by Station Area
09/07/2014
3
4
6
10
14
17
20
23
24
34
2
1. Introduction
The Market Readiness Overview report represents a second step in the LRT Station Area
planning process, building upon the development of a GIS inventory of land uses and
densities and best practices research. Collectively, this research establishes baseline
conditions within the 6 Station Areas and allows for the development of growth forecasts
based on realistic market demand expectations, as well as City, Region and Provincial
demographic and land use planning policy objectives.
To leverage and facilitate investment opportunities for private, public and institutional
sector investment, Station Area planning is to be completed prior to operational
commencement of the LRT in 2017. Future steps in this process will establish Station Area
Plans, growth forecasts, a GIS-based development tracking database and identify capital
infrastructure needs.
A primary focus of this “Market Readiness Overview” report is to provide a higher order
assessment of residential and office demand expectations as the key drivers of population
and employment growth within the station areas, including an assessment of:
• Market experiences and the outlook for office demand and how this might influence
residential growth;
• Market experiences in townhouse and condominium apartment development; and,
• Anticipated future demand for housing and commercial (office/industrial) development
within 800 meters of new Station Areas. These forecasts will be based on a
combination of:
09/07/2014
•
The locational strengths and weaknesses of local residential and office
submarket areas;
•
The ability of the underlying land use policies to allow for a dynamic, walkable
mixed-use living environment; and,
•
Development potential and economics, including the availability of
development parcels.
3
2. Market Readiness Factors
High Population Growth & Job Creation Anticipated
•
•
While the potential supply of housing is primarily influenced by provincial
and municipal planning policies, such as growth targets and the designation
of land, the demand, or market, for housing is shaped by such
considerations as demographics, job creation, interest rates, post-secondary
enrolment growth, proximity to transit infrastructure, the overall
neighbourhood context and access to day-to-day urban amenities, among
many others. Below, and in the pages to follow, we explore the supply and
demand characteristics influencing growth in the study area.
The City of Waterloo is poised for considerable population growth and job
creation:
•
•
•
•
In 2013, Amendment 2 to the Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth
Plan (Growth Plan) reconfirmed the Region of Waterloo’s
anticipated rapid population and employment growth targets to the
year 2041, indicating rapid population growth of 307,000 residents
between 2011 and 2041.
Similarly, the employment target anticipates substantial growth in
the Region, rising from 269,000 jobs in 2011, to 321,000 jobs in
2021, and 393,000 jobs by 2041 (Table 1).
Forecasts within the recently amended City of Waterloo Official Plan
(Table 2) indicate a similar high level of projected population and
employment growth within the City between 2006 and 2029.
Table 1
Population and Employment Growth Plan Targets
Region of Waterloo
2011
2031
2041
% Growth % Growth
2011-2031 2011-2041
Population
528,000
742,000
835,000
41%
58%
Employment
269,000
366,000
404,000
36%
50%
Source: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Table 2
Population and Employment Growth Forecast*
City of Waterloo
Population
City of
Waterloo
Employment
2006
2029
% Growth
2006
2029
% Growth
101,700
137,000
35%
64,070
88,000
37%
Source: City of Waterloo Official Plan, N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
*Forecasts have been deferred by the Region of Waterloo, pending outcome of OMB appeal to
Regional Official Plan.
As directed by the Growth Plan, much of this growth is to be accommodated
within the study area, including the Uptown Waterloo Core Urban Growth
Centre, major transit station areas (within 500 metres of the LRT Stations)
and along many of the study area’s arterial roads.
4
2. Market Readiness Factors
LRT to Increase Residential and Office Demand
•
•
In the past five years the Waterloo residential marketplace has shifted away from
ground-oriented formats to apartment formats which now comprise well over
90% of units under construction. This trend is in large part thanks to the
phenomenal success of projects geared to the student rental market, and a
strong Uptown market (with nearly 1,500 units proposed or built within the last 5
years).
With the ION Light Rail Transit (LRT) line opening in 2017, residents, students and
workers within walking distance of LRT stations will experience a much higher
degree of connectivity to the universities, technology parks, the Uptown
Waterloo Core, and beyond, to Kitchener’s LRT stations, and the GTA by GO
Transit. This will increase demand for both housing and office uses in proximity
to LRT stations.
•
Strong housing demand can attract office development (and vice versa), creating
opportunities for more integrated and rewarding live-work-play lifestyles,
particularly in those Station Areas with mixed use policy frameworks.
•
In Station Areas encompassing the universities, student accommodation needs
will drive housing demand. Some of these same students will continually feed a
talented and growing graduate pool to support local office demand. There are
also opportunities for Blackberry buildings to accommodate new employment
growth within close proximity to LRT stations.
•
The LRT’s connectivity allows workers and residents to have greater geographic
choice when choosing the location for their housing and work place, creating a
more competitive market environment.
•
However, Station Areas that are walkable and safe, with animated streets lined
with shops, restaurants and everyday amenities, and within walking distance of
universities, will out-compete other less desirable locations for housing and
office demand.
The ION Light Rail Transit Route
Streetscape Animation in Uptown Waterloo
Photograph by Thomas Kolodziej
5
3. Three Residential Submarkets
Waterloo Station Areas
Due to the unique contextual circumstances within and around the Station
Areas, three submarket overlays have been applied to assess market
conditions (Figure 1). Each has its own unique strengths and weaknesses,
which appeal to different market segments. The submarkets include:
•
The North Waterloo Submarket, which extends north from
approximately three blocks north of Columbia Street;
•
The University Submarket, which includes the Northdale
neighbourhood, extends south to Bridgeport Road and Silver
Lake; and,
•
The Uptown Core Submarket, which extends south to the
Kitchener municipal boundary.
Figure 1
6
3. Station Area Residential Context
North Waterloo Submarket
Conestoga Mall
Mall
Waterloo Corporate Campus Site Plan
Strengths
Weaknesses
Close to Retail: Conestoga Mall is a regional
attraction, with a strong mix of retail,
restaurant and entertainment amenities, and
recent upgrades. There is also a number of
large format retail uses nearby, closer to the
Northfield Station (Lakeshore Plaza).
There is currently a limited residential context.
This is reinforced by the underlying land use
policy permissions which do not permit
residential uses in much of the Northfield and
Research & Technology Park Station Areas.
Once complete, the LRT will create short carfree commuting possible, and connect these
areas to the Uptown Core and Downtown
Kitchener.
This submarket area is auto-oriented, with
building design and streetscapes dominated
by surface parking, resulting in a low quality
pedestrian environment.
Close to growing employment base, new office
uses near the Northfield Station. Some large
developable parcels (eg. Waterloo Corporate
Campus) are development ready.
There is currently a lack of community,
recreational and public amenities.
There are some stable low-rise residential
areas (Lincoln Neighbourhood), potentially
indicating some future demand from local endusers (move-down, empty nesters) buyers in
this submarket area.
The large parcel sizes, large format retail uses,
single tenant office buildings, and wide
arterial roads contribute to a sense of
isolation, particularly for high-rise buyers who
seek animated, walkable streetscapes.
Beside the Conestoga Mall there is some higher
density residential context (e.g. Davenport
Apartments).
The industrial character and associated
aesthetic quality of the area lowers the
attractiveness for residential development.
This area has good access to highways, major
arterial roads.
There is traffic and car congestion, particularly
near Conestoga Mall and along Northfield Dr.
Development opportunity exists, with Waterloo
Corporate Campus, other sites showing strong
potential. The R&T Park could accommodate
5,500 more jobs (from 3,500).
The availability of Blackberry buildings may
delay construction of new office space in
select parts of the City and Region.
3. Station Area Residential Context
University Submarket
Waterloo Park
Conestoga Mall
New Laurier School of Business
Strengths
Weaknesses
The area is walkable to both the University of
Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University, creating
strong appeal for student housing. Easterly
portions are within walking distance to the
Uptown Core, which will attract additional enduser purchasers drawn to retail , entertainment
and recreation amenities.
Demand is dependent on continued
growth at Universities and demand for
new housing by an increasing number of
students.
This area is strategically close to key
employment areas to north and northwest of
the university campuses, as well as the
universities themselves. LRT will improve access
to universities, other employment destinations,
and other station areas, once complete.
Dominance of investor/student renters
deters some end-user purchaser groups
from buying in this area, and may deter
developers from investing in alternate
products.
There are abundant community and recreational
amenities on-campus and within the Waterloo
Park area.
There generally are lower quality
streetscapes with a mix of dated student
housing and retail strip plazas.
This submarket has the opportunity to
accommodate new creative start up spaces and
high standard living accommodations for
students and young professionals. It appears
that this submarket will intensify at a rapid pace.
There is a need to have direct, convenient
pedestrian linkages from LRT stops to
existing and future office buildings.
Greater pedestrian connectivity is needed
between Northdale neighbourhood, UW
campus and LRT station.
Blackberry owns numerous buildings in this
submarket. With office consolidation,
underutilized buildings will provide turnkey
office space attractive to small, medium and
larger companies.
The availability of Blackberry buildings may
delay construction of new office space in
select parts of the City and Region.
8
3. Station Area Residential Context
Uptown Core Submarket
Strengths
Weaknesses
This area is the most walkable of the submarkets, with a wide
range of retail, restaurants and entertainment uses,
community and recreational amenities and jobs.
There continues to be a surplus of surface
parking , weakening the pedestrian
environment.
This area already possesses an established and charming
mixed-use and historic context, with a recent infusion of new
infill development that has further strengthened the urban
fabric.
This area is also close to downtown Kitchener, whether by
LRT, bicycle and even by walking. The Kitchener (Victoria)
Transit Hub Station will provide a convenient rail connection
to Pearson International Airport and downtown Toronto,
benefitting Uptown.
Future LRT Station Areas overlap within the Uptown Core,
creating convenient access to transit throughout.
Bauer Lofts Retail Area
Floodplain areas and high water table limit
redevelopment potential of some sites.
Some of the best redevelopment sites are
City-owned lands which are constrained
by parking replacement agreements which
may take some time to resolve, leaving
gaps in the urban fabric.
The character of the area and the viability of retail and office
development has been reinforced by the underlying land use
planning framework, which promotes infill and intensification.
The cost and difficulty of assembly due to
finer parcel fabric can be a development
constraint.
Within Uptown, the City owns lands that are currently used
for surface parking. Some of these properties can provide
opportunity for new employment and mixed-use
development, providing that parking commitments can be
addressed.
During the short term, robust incentives
from the City of Kitchener will continue to
attract new resident and job growth in DT
Kitchener. This may dissipate over time as
incentives are reduced and space
becomes less available.
The City is investing in the public realm, which will help
maintain interest and demand for living/working in Uptown.
Higher land prices and soft costs could
impact small, mid-rise housing projects.
9
4. Active Condominium Apartment Projects
Waterloo & Downtown Kitchener
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Uptown Core has demonstrated itself to be a successful area for small and medium sized
projects of between 50 and 150 units, while the University Submarket has featured a number of
larger projects in recent years buoyed by strong student rental demand.
The North Waterloo Submarket has experienced no apartment development. Residential
development is limited within the two northern conceptual station areas.
As of December, 2013, there were 7 condominium apartment projects in Waterloo, of which 4
are located within the Uptown Core Submarket, and 1 is located within the University Submarket
(see Table 3, Figure 2 & Figure 3); the remaining 2 projects are located outside of the three
submarket areas. The 5 Station Area projects comprise 739 units, of which 87% have sold.
The average absorption rate of the 4 projects within the Uptown Core (cumulatively 9.4 sales per
month) suggests that the remaining inventory of 132 units will be sold out in approximately 9
months time. Within the University Submarket area, there are just 9 units of unsold inventory
with Sage VI which, based on the average absorption sales absorption rate of 47 units per month,
should be sold out in the near future.
Due to their proximity to the Uptown Core, downtown Kitchener projects were also surveyed, as
they often compete for end-user purchasers. Kitchener’s downtown has seen stronger investor
(i.e. rental) demand and not surprisingly, has experienced much higher sales volumes than that of
the Uptown Core, at over 36 cumulative sales per month. These projects cater to the downtown’s
young workforce employed in its financial and civic institutions and technology firms. Kitchener
has robust incentives that offer competitive advantages for new construction.
As Kitchener’s downtown submarket matures further, and remaining sites are developed, NBLC
anticipates some demand could overspill into Waterloo’s Uptown Core.
Red Condominiums (Uptown Core)
City Centre Living
Condominiums
(Downtown Kitchener)
10
4. Active Condominium Apartment Projects
Waterloo & Downtown Kitchener
Table 3: Actively Marketing (New) Condominium Apartment Projects in Waterloo & Downtown Kitchener
As of December 12, 2013 (Unless noted otherwise)
Map
Project Name / Developer
No.
Address
Open Status
Storeys # Units # Sold % Sold
Date
*
Size Range
Price Range
Avg. $PSF
Overall Abs.
Rate**
Surveyed Waterloo Projects
Uptown Core Submarket Projects
144 Park Uptown Waterloo
Mady Corporation
Westmount Grand Luxury Condominiums
A2
Kingsley Development
Red Condominiums
A3
Momentum Develpoments
One Fifty Five Uptown Waterloo***
A4
Mady Corporation
Totals / Averages / Ranges: 4 Projects
A1
141, 145 and 155 Caroline St./
156 Park St.
Oct-09
UC
19
149
148
99%
1,835 - 1,835
$647,990
-
223 Erb Street West
Dec-09
SI
12
77
68
88%
1,040 - 2,491
$400,000
119 King Street North
Sep-11
SI
6
63
57
90%
958
- 1,833
141, 145 and 155 Caroline St./
156 Park St.
Jan-12
PRE
19
140
70
50%
601
14
429
343
80%
University Submarket Projects
A5
Sage VI Condominiums
IN8 Developments
$353
-
$353
2.9
- $1,200,000
$385
-
$482
1.4
$372,900
-
$699,900
$382
-
$389
2.1
- 1,157
$239,900
-
$431,900
$373
-
$399
3.0
601
- 2,491
$239,900
- $1,200,000
$353
-
$482
2.3
$647,990
251 Hemlock Street
Jun-13
PRE
12
310
301
97%
559
- 1,126
$209,900
-
$380,900
$338
-
$375
47.2
776 Laurelwood Drive
Sep-10
SI
7
91
90
99%
791
-
$239,500
-
$239,500
$303
-
$303
2.3
778 Laurelwood Drive
Jun-11
UC
7
91
46
50%
678
- 1,032
$199,900
-
$295,000
$286
-
$295
1.5
7
12
182
921
136
780
74%
85%
678
559
- 1,032
- 2,491
$199,900
$199,900
- $295,000
- $1,200,000
$286
$286
-
$303
$482
2.0
3.5
North Waterloo Projects
Reflections at Laurelwood - Building 1
Activa
Reflections at Laurelwood - Building 2
A7
Activa
Totals / Averages / Ranges: 2 Projects
A6
Waterloo Summary (7 Projects)
791
Surveyed Downtown Kitchener Projects (As of January 13, 2014 for A8, A10 & A12)
City Centre Condominiums
Andrin Homes
Arrow Lofts
A9
Auburn Homes
Victoria Common Condos - Phase 1 Claridge
A10
Queensgate Homes
One Victoria Condominiums
A11
Momentum Developments
Victoria Common Condos - Phase 2 Trafalgar
A12
Queensgate Homes
Kitchener Summary (5 Projects)
A8
120 King Street West
Oct-10
UC
17
203
156
77%
510
- 1,150
$178,490
-
$421,940
$350
-
$367
4.0
112 Benton Street
Jul-11
SI
8
136
109
80%
732
- 2,051
$237,900
-
$695,000
$325
-
$339
3.6
1 Adam Street
Jun-12
UC
4
77
67
87%
490
-
$179,900
-
$274,900
$309
-
$367
3.5
1 Victoria Street South
Feb-13
UC
19
204
184
90%
517
- 1,945
$209,900
-
$899,900
$406
-
$463
16.2
1 Adam Street
Nov-13
PRE
4
77
19
25%
490
-
$189,900
-
$285,900
$321
-
$388
8.8
10
697
535
77%
490
- 2,051
$178,490
-
$899,900
$309
-
$463
5.2
890
890
*Status: "Pre" = pre construction, "UC" = under construction, "SI" = standing inventory; **The overall absorption rate is calculated from a project's opening date until December 12th, 2013 for Waterloo Projects, and is calculated from a project's opening date until
January 13th, 2014 for City Centre Condominiums and Victoria Common Condos (Phases I & II). ***Excludes penthouse and podium units at 155 Uptown. These units are to be released early 2014.
Source: Sales and Marketing Materials, Sales Agents, and N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
4. Active Condominium Apartment Projects
Waterloo Station Areas
Actively Marketing Station Area Projects:
A1 – 144 Park Uptowns (149 units, 19-storeys)
A3 – Red Condominiums (6-storeys, 49 units)
A5 – Sage VI Condominiums (12-storeys, 310 units)
LRT Stations
- - - - 800 Metre Distance from Future LRT Station
A2 – Westmount Grand (77 units, 12-storeys)
A4 – One Fifty Five Uptown (19-storeys, 140 units)
Figure 2
12
4. Active Condominium Apartment Projects
Downtown Kitchener
Actively Marketing Downtown Kitchener Projects:
A8 – City Centre Condos (203 units, 17 storeys)
A9 – Arrow Lofts (136 units, 8 storeys)
A10 – Victoria Common – Phase 1 (Claridge) (77 units, 4 storeys)
A11– One Victoria (204 units, 19 storeys)
A12 – Victoria Common – Phase 2 (77 units, 4 storeys)
LRT Stations
- - - - - 800 Metre Distance from Future LRT Station
Figure 3
13
5. Recently Active University Submarket Projects
Sage Condominium Phases
•
In order to better understand the depth of investor purchaser (student rental)
demand for condominium apartments in the University Submarket, NBLC
reconstructed historical sales experienced in earlier phases of Sage, by IN8
Developments, now marketing its sixth project in just two years (see Table 4 & Figure
5, to follow).
•
With sales offices in both downtown Toronto and Waterloo, Sage I sold out in just
four days in January of 2012. The project features 58 three- and five-bedroom luxury
condo units, which were sold for between $359,900 (for an 1,800 square foot unit)
and $599,900. Sales of subsequent phases have been equally impressive, with the
next three phases now sold out and the current apartment phase (Sage VI) now 97%
sold in just 6 months since its launch back in June of 2013. This represents a very
high sales absorption rate of over 47 units per month.
•
Collectively, all 5 Sage condominium apartment phases have sold 821 of a possible
830 units in just 2 years, representing a very impressive sales absorption rate of 410
units per year (Table 4 & Figure 5).
Sage Condos
Source: Marketing Materials
Sage II
Source: Marketing Materials
Sage VI
Source: Marketing Materials
14
5. Recently Active University Submarket Projects
Sage Condominium Phases
The Forty-Two
Source: Marketing Materials
Table 4
Sage Condominiums Sales Summary - IN8 Developments
As of January 20, 2014
Map
No.
Project Name / Developer
Address
Open Date Status* Storeys # Units # Sold
% Sold
S1
Sage
8 Hickory Street
Jan-12
SI
12
58
58
100%
S2
Sage II
318 Spruce Street
Sep-12
UC
23
198
198
100%
Size Range
-
-
527 -
957
Price Range
-
-
Avg. $PSF
-
-
-
-
$189,900 -
$320,000
$334 - $360
Overall
Abs.
Rate**
25.9
172.1
S3
Sage III
62 Balsam Street
Jan-13
UC
6
98
98
100%
777 - 1,731
$249,900 -
$419,900
$243 - $322
99.4
S5
Sage V
280 Lester Street
Mar-13
PRE
6
167
167
100%
424 - 1,163
$184,900 -
$389,900
$335 - $436
112.9
266
266
100%
559 - 1,126
$209,900 -
$380,900
$338 - $375
238.0
44
35
80%
534 - 1,134
$199,900 -
$242,900
$214 - $374
16.9
68
899
44
866
65%
96%
725 - 1,383
424 - 1,731
$269,900 $184,900 -
$419,900
$419,900
$304 - $372
$214 - $436
44.0
86.2
S6
Sage VI Release 1
251 Hemlock Street
Jun-13
PRE
Sage VI Release 2 (Soft Launch)
251 Hemlock Street
Nov-13
PRE
253 Albert Street
Jan-14
PRE
SIV Ivy Towns (Soft Launch)
Sage Condominiums Summary (6 Projects):
12
4
11
*Status: "Pre" = pre construction, "UC" = under construction, "SI" = standing inventory; **The overall absorption rate is calculated from a project's opening date until January 20th for actively selling projects, and the project's closing
date for sold out projects.
Source: Sales and Marketing Materials, Sales Agents, and N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
15
5. Recently Active University Submarket Projects
Sage Condominium Phases
Sage Phases Marketing Between 2012 and 2014
1) S1 – Sage
S5 – Sage V
S2 – Sage II
S6 – Sage VI Condominiums
S3 – Sage III
SIT – Ivy Towns
LRT Stations
- - - - - 800 Metre Distance from Future LRT Station
Figure 5
16
6. Proposed Condominium Apartment Projects
Condominium & Rental Apartment Projects
•
•
•
•
•
The proposed (planned and approved) residential
apartment supply provides an indication of the
anticipated demand for housing and the level of
competition in each of the submarket Station
Areas.
Currently, there are 10 planning approval
applications in proximity to the Station Areas,
proposing 3,283 condominium apartment units
(Table 4, Figure 4).
Approximately 40% of the units are within the
Uptown Core, with the remaining 1,965 units in
the University Submarket.
The anticipated Uptown Core condominium
apartment units represent an approximate 9.8
years of supply, while the University Submarket
units represent 3.5 years of supply, based on
current sales absorption rates, and assuming that
all units are sold and not immediately allocated
to a rental management pool.
In 2012 and 2013, another 1,346 rental
apartment units, comprising 3,546 bedrooms,
have been proposed and site plan approved,
primarily in the University Submarket. These
projects will compete directly with private rental
projects in that area as they constructed.
Table 5: Condominium & Rental Apartment Development Applications - City of Waterloo
As of December 20, 2013
Ref. No./ Address
Date
Applicant
Submarket
# Storeys # Units
Area
Uptown Core Submarket Projects
Comments
Includes hotel, office , rental and
condominium apartments. 178
condominium and 220 rental units are under
construction, but have not come to market.
P1
104-106 Erb Street
(The Barrel Yards)
2009
Auburn Developments
Uptown
Waterloo
25-12
1,036
P2
110 Union at Moore
2011
Lexington Park Real
Estate
Uptown
Waterloo
6
43
P3
220, 222 and 226 King St.
S (The Cortes on King)
Dec-12
KGR Holdings
Uptown
Waterloo
6
49
6-storey, mixed-use building with
approximately 300 square metres of
commercial space at grade and49 units in 5storeys.
P4
31 Alexandra Avenue
Feb-13 Auburn Developments
Uptown
Waterloo
14
152
Residential building with townhouse units atgrade.
P5
14 Princess Street
Marsland Centre Ltd.
Uptown
Waterloo
7
38
Demolition complete and site remediation
underway.
2013
University Submarket Projects
P6
256 Philip Street
2011
JD Investment Group
University
20-24
451
Marketed as luxury student rental, with 1,807
bedrooms.
330 Philip Street
(Icon 330)
2010
Rise Real Estate Inc.
University
25, 25
624
O.M.B. Approved in July of 2013. Phase I
includes 867 bedrooms within 624 units.
Based on density permissions, another 470
bedrooms may be developed.
May-12
2208254 Ontario Inc.
University
20
110
110 units to contain 199 bedrooms.
P7
128-138 King St. N. &6
Elgin St.
P8
158 and 150 King Street
Oct-13
North (K2 Condominiums)
GSP Group Inc.
University
11 & 21
180
P9
124 and 130 Columbia St.
Nov-13
W. and 365 Albert St.
Prica Group
University
7 & 13
600
17
3,283
Totals / Averages : 10 Projects
Source: N. Barry Lyon Consultants, City of Waterloo
2-storey podium, two condominium
apartment towers, and 250 square metres of
commercial space.
2,500 sq. m. of commercial GFA, and 7 and
13-storey residential buildings to be
marketed to “young professionals”.
17
6. Proposed Condominium Apartment Projects
Condominium & Rental Apartment Projects
Proposed High Rise Projects:
P1 – 104-106 Erb St. (The Barrel Yards)
P2 – 110 Union & Moore St.
P3 – 220, 222 & 226 King St. S (The Cortes on King)
P4 – 31 Alexandra St.
P5 – 14 Princess St.
LRT Stations
- - - - 800 Metre Distance from Future LRT Station
P6 –
P7 –
P8 –
P9 –
256 Philip St.
128-138 King St. N & 6 Elgin St.
158 King St. N (K2 Condominium)
124 and 130 Columbia St. W.
Figure 4
18
6. Proposed Condominium Apartment Projects
Barrel Yards & K2
•
The largest proposed project is the Barrel Yards master planned
community, by Auburn Developments, with approximately
1,036 approved apartment units, of which:
•
178 condominium apartment units are under
construction;
•
356 condominium apartment units are under an active
building permit;
•
220 purpose-built rental units are under construction,
and lease commitments are being taken now;
•
440 purpose-built rental units are under an active
building permit;
•
202 unit hotel is under construction; and,
One office block with two towers and a podium are
permitted. This block has been postponed.
Other upcoming projects of note include the 600 unit K2
Condominiums, by U.I.D. Development Inc., located two blocks
south of the Laurier King Street North Campus and Icon330, by
Rise Real Estate, a 624-unit building, at the intersection of Philip
Street and Columbia Street, east of the University of Waterloo.
Both projects are in the University Submarket, and will be
catering to investor purchasers as luxury student rental
projects.
Although we understand that soft marketing
campaigns are under way, sales to the public are anticipated to
occur early in 2014, providing a good bellwether of current
investor demand in the University Submarket.
Barrel Yards Master Plan
•
•
•
K2 Rendering
Source: Marketing Materials
19
7. Office Market Overview
To understand the level of demand for office and industrial uses in the Station Areas, as
well as residential demand in proximity to these areas, NBLC has reviewed the prospects for
employment generating uses in these areas.
•
The City of Waterloo remains the office prestige space leader in the Region, with other
markets capturing lower cost class B/C space.
•
Low and falling Q3 2013 vacancy rates in the City of Waterloo have not resulted in
increases in net rental rates as of yet. However, the Uptown Waterloo Core’s
traditionally and comparatively low vacancy rates have resulted in net asking rents that
have now surpassed the City average as a whole in the third quarter of 2013.
•
This pent up demand is resulting in conversions to new Class 'A' space and further
tightening of the sublet market.
•
Although office demand is high in the Uptown Waterloo Core and improving in the
business parks to the north, higher rents in the range of $25 per square foot of net
leasable space are needed to support replacement costs, and to result in new office
development.
•
To date, downsizing BlackBerry has had minimal impact on new space demand,
recognizing that they have just formally put their lands on the market. However,
demand should weaken, and vacancy rates should rise, as BlackBerry begins to sell its
remaining landholdings in the City of Waterloo, totaling almost 70 acres of vacant land
in the Northfield and University Campuses, along with over 1.6 million square feet of
office space (650,000 square feet and just under 1,000,000 square feet respectively in
the Northfield and University Campuses).
Table 6: Office Submarket Summary
Quarter/
Municipality
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
Region of
Waterloo
City of
Waterloo
Office Inventory (sq. ft.)*
10,665,728
5,776,115
10,892,883
5,955,420
10,909,382
5,870,463
11,137,947
6,031,783
11,141,216
6,031,783
11,142,442
6,031,783
Vacancy Rate
11.8%
9.4%
12.5%
8.9%
12.1%
7.6%
11.6%
8.5%
11.5%
8.4%
11.0%
8.1%
Net Rents
$12.57
$14.82
$12.76
$14.61
$12.84
$15.24
$12.92
$15.30
$13.25
$15.28
$11.85
$13.21
Uptown
Waterloo
1,272,168
1,272,168
1,272,168
1,272,168
1,272,168
1,272,168
2.5%
2.6%
2.3%
1.6%
1.9%
2.1%
$11.66
$13.40
$13.35
$12.93
$12.99
$13.52
Excludes government offices and buildings with less than 10,000 sq.
ft.
Source: Colliers, NBLC
20
7. Office Market Overview
BlackBerry Properties to be Sold
(continued):
•
.
21
7. Office Market Overview
•
Although BlackBerry will continue to lease back space, should
they continue to downsize, this could put downward pressure on
rents and lower the prospects for redevelopment in Station Areas.
We note that in situations where sunken land costs are low, office
development has been feasible within the Northfield, Research &
Technology Park and University Station Areas, as is evidenced by
smaller office projects now under construction at 139 Northfield
Drive (40,000 sf) & 435 Phillip Street (10,700 sf).
•
Office demand should improve in each of the residential
submarket Station Areas due to the construction of the LRT and
the start-up of two-way GO Transit service to Guelph and Toronto
from the LRT’s Transit Hub station in downtown Kitchener.
•
Not only will this allow for car-free commuting for those living
within walking distance of planned transit stations, but the new
Toronto-Guelph connection should allow the City’s many
technology, insurance and start-up companies to compete for top
talent within the GTA. The success of these firms should spur new
office demand in Station Areas.
•
Table 7: Summary of Office Construction by Submarket Area (sf)
As of December, 2013
Year
North Waterloo
University
Uptown Core
Overall
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Yearly Avg.:
Total:
110,945
209,979
66,154
75,102
123,132
7,351
177,578
201,868
732
65,876
10,720
95,403
1,049,437
0
0
0
0
0
54,260
0
193
0
0
0
4,950
54,453
2,792
152,051
77,719
71,900
3,359
0
64,484
11,657
0
14,697
0
36,242
398,658
113,737
362,030
143,873
147,002
126,491
61,611
242,062
213,718
732
80,573
10,720
136,595
1,502,548
Note: Office construction includes the following categories of building permit data: office,
commercial office, industrial malls, government administrative buildings, municipal buildings,
mercantile & utility buildings, wholesale stores, bus./personal service offices..
Source: City of Waterloo, NBLC
These areas already have a sizeable and growing pool of talented
young employees residing within their boundaries, which should
attract future office development and increase achievable rental
rates.
139 Northfield Drive
Northfield Station/Office Development
22
8. Institutional and Industrial Market Overview
•
The institutional marketplace is difficult to forecast as it is influenced by many factors,
some of which relate to demographic characteristics, while others relate to philanthropy
or politics; the latter particularly relating to university-based institutional growth.
•
On the municipal governmental side, the City’s rapid population growth suggests that
demand for institutional office space will be increasing throughout the study period
timeframe of 2031. We note that in 2012 & 2013, building permits for institutional space
were issued for:
• Over 210,000 square feet within the Seagram Station Area;
• Almost 195,000 square feet within the University Station Area; and,
• Just under 20,000 square feet within the R & T Park Station Area.
•
Demand for university classroom and administrative space is shaped more by student
enrolment growth. The 2011 Student Accommodation Study Monitoring Report suggests
that the aggregate student enrolment for both universities should continue to increase by
approximately 1,000 students per year to 2017 and then increase by 1.5% per year
thereafter. This bodes well for the need for additional space in the decades ahead, as was
evidenced by the recent purchase of 300,000 square feet of space from BlackBerry by the
University of Waterloo.
•
Industrial growth has been slower in the Station Areas, and in the City of Waterloo in
general, with flat rents in 2013 and just under 9,000 square feet under construction based
on building permits issued in 2013. BlackBerry’s plans to sell 126,000 square feet of
warehousing space at 451 Philip Street (Figure 5) should lessen demand for new
development resulting from firms entering the marketplace in the short term. However,
as evidenced by minor additions at 55 Bathurst Drive and 35 Northland Drive over the
past couple of years, the economics are favourable for existing landowners with additional
land to expand their existing footprint.
New Science Teaching Complex
BlackBerry’s
Warehouse at 451
Philip Street
Figure 5
23
9. Market Trends & Outlook
General
•
High-rise residential market, institutional and office trends are
pointing in the right direction. Over the 18 year time horizon to
2031, demand for these uses will continue to grow and intensify,
particularly: within the Uptown Core; in proximity to the
universities; in those portions of business parks within Station
Areas; and areas where the City has established a mixed use
planning framework to promote more efficient lifestyles.
•
As Station Areas within the University and Uptown Core
Submarkets are built out, residential market demand in peripheral
areas, such as the King Street corridor around Conestoga Mall
should emerge, particularly on lands that can demonstrate a
compelling mixed use master/block plan vision with a high degree
of pedestrian, cycling and transit connectivity.
•
Community designs consisting of a finer grain and animated street
and pedestrian connections, with on-site amenities and
recreational spaces, nearby shopping and entertainment will be
necessary to attract larger scale development in the North
Waterloo Submarket Station Areas.
•
To stem the loss of employees to more amenity-rich urban
settings, suburban employers are attempting to create new
mixed-use districts with restaurant, entertainment and retail uses
to improve the worker experience and save them time. Station
Areas will have the added benefit of a car-free commute and rail
connections to the GTA, creating competitive advantages for
attracting new office development of all types.
Figure 6
Official Plan Land Use Designation/Station Study Area Overlay (North
Waterloo)
Note: The information contained on this map is for discussion purposes only and is not an Official
Plan Schedule.
Source: Integrated Planning and Public Works, City of Waterloo
24
9. Market Trends & Outlook
North Waterloo Station Areas
•
•
•
•
There are currently no condominium apartment projects within any of the
North Waterloo Submarket Station Areas.
The only project in North Waterloo – Laurelwood, by Activa - is located near
the City’s rural/urban fringe. The 7-storey, two-building (two-phase) project
has appealed to end-users, including seniors, empty nesters and young
professionals, capitalizing on its suburban setting and averaging a respectable
2.0 sales per building, per month (4.0 sales combined).
To be successful, near-term projects within the Station Areas will need to be
mindful of construction costs due to the lower pricing potential of the North
Waterloo Submarket, suggesting that smaller-scale wood-frame apartment,
stacked townhouse and townhouse projects will be the most viable.
Development designs that serve to break down and transition the suburban
character of the area to a more urban character, consistent with the Uptown
Core, are necessary to encourage a more intensified residential development
form. These include quality architectural detailing and the implementation of
pedestrian-oriented designs to establish quality residential
living
environments and better pedestrian and cycling connectivity within Station
Areas and to the LRT stations themselves. Accelerated sales and a deeper and
more varied residential marketplace can be cultivated by also providing a more
walkable mix of commercial, recreational, community and open space uses.
Building 1 – Reflections at Laurelwood
25
9. Market Trends & Outlook
North Waterloo Station Areas
•
•
•
Residential demand in proximity to Northfield Station should increase as
proposed office and retail commercial projects in the Waterloo Corporate
Centre (580-590 Weber Street North, 150 Northfield Drive West) and at
139 Northfield Drive are constructed. The first phase of the Waterloo
Corporate Centre is planned to include over 175,000 square feet of office
space and over 21,000 square feet of restaurant space. Northfield Station,
now under construction, includes approximately 40,000 square feet of
leasable office space.
In proximity to Conestoga Mall Station, there is a medium to long term
opportunity for the City to work collaboratively with Ivanhoe Cambridge to
establish a redevelopment and phasing plan for the surface parking lots
surrounding Conestoga Mall. Such plans should work to establish a finer
grain pattern of development blocks, streets and public spaces, with
interior block structured parking garages lined by animated street uses.
As an example, Oxford Properties and the City of Mississauga are currently
working on a development phasing plan for Square One Shopping Centre
(Downtown 21 Master Plan), which will involve the establishment of an
outdoor main street-style shopping district with a synergistic mix of office,
residential and park uses.
139 Northfield Drive
Northfield Station/Office Development
Waterloo Corporate Centre Concept Plan
26
9. Market Trends & Outlook
University Submarket Station Areas
Demand for housing in this area is heavily influenced by student enrolment, and
therefore, performance in this market is dependent on continued student body growth at
the two universities. The past five years has seen a dramatic increase in the scale of
student rental projects, as the supply of housing has tried to keep pace with enrolment
growth. In 2013 alone, seven new privately-owned student rental apartment buildings,
containing approximately 200 units and 1,000 bedrooms, were completed in the City of
Waterloo (Figure 7).
Below, we have summarized key observations and projections from several demandrelated information sources, including the Northdale Final Report, university planning
documents, the 2011 Student Accommodation Study prepared in 2011 and the
associated “Student Accommodation Monitoring Report” (“Monitoring Report”).
• The University of Waterloo’s full-time equivalent student enrolment (including
graduate and undergraduate students) has grown by about 950 students per year
since 2005 to a total enrolment of 31,600 students in 2013. This leaves them just
400 students shy of achieving their 2017 “Sixth Decade Plan” projection of 32,000
students.
• Laurier’s 2012 Waterloo campus full-time student enrolment of 12,550 is anticipated
to grow by around 2,450 students by 2023 (approximately 225 students annually
over the next decade).
• As such, it appears that demand for student housing will continue to grow at a
moderate pace in the short term but the market may be nearing a saturation point in
the decade to come, particularly with the new LRT line providing more accessible
accommodation options outside the submarket.
Figure 7: New Student Rental Supply
27
9. Market Trends & Outlook
University Submarket Station Areas
•
•
•
•
Through the Northdale land use study the universities indicated
that they could not estimate specific long-term enrolment, and are
generally not comfortable projecting out more than 3 years. We
know from recent experience that the universities have not grown
in a linear fashion, but instead, have grown in spurts. Future
student enrolment is therefore difficult to gauge as it is dependent
upon a number of interrelated variables, including university
participation rates, international demographics, and associated
participation rates, and changes in technological advances that
could shift learning away from the classroom environment, as well
as provincial funding.
The Ministry of Finance, in a Presentation by the Ministry of
Training, Colleges and Universities in May of 2012, projects that
the key student cohort of 18 to 24 years of age is expected to
decline, beginning in 2013, from approximately 1.32 million to
approximately 1.23 million in 2021, and then rise to approximately
1.44 million by 2036.
However, university participation rates are steadily rising and are
anticipated to continue this trend, thereby offsetting short term
declines in the student cohort population. The Ministry of
Training, Colleges and Universities projects that the 2011
undergraduate participation rate of 27.5% could rise to 35% by
2031. To offset declines in cohort population to the year 2021,
the participation rate would only be required to increase to 29.5%
to maintain current student enrolment levels.
The graduate portion of the student population is also an
important component of rental demand within condominium
projects. The Council of Ontario Universities (COU) anticipates
•
•
that graduate student enrolment will grow by 6% annually to the
year 2020, suggesting growing demand for condominium rental
accommodation. These slightly older and more mature students
often desire smaller and more intimate housing accommodation
than is typically offered in student rental projects, where the
majority of units feature 4 or 5 bedrooms. The relatively smaller
one- and two-bedroom units offered within condominium
apartment projects offer these students the necessary conditions
to conduct their studies.
The Region of Waterloo, the universities in Waterloo (UW and
WLU) and the City’s Northdale consultant (MMM Group) are not
in agreement regarding the pace of future enrollment. The Region
and the universities believe that enrollment will generally be
stagnant until at least 2029, whereas MMM had projected that
enrollment growth would continue based on increasing
participation rates, increasing graduate enrollment and increased
enrollment from international students.
This study has assumed that student enrolment at the two
universities combined will continue to increase at a rate of 1,000
students per year to the year 2017. After 2017 UW growth is
assumed at 1.5% annually, with WLU assumed at 1% annually.
Assuming that 85% will require housing in proximity to the
universities, this translates into the need for 850 bedrooms per
year, or approximately 280 student rental units per year up to
2017, based on an average of 3 bedrooms per unit. Growth rates
after 2017 would see the addition of approximately 570 students
in 2018, escalating up to nearly 680 students in 2031.
28
9. Market Trends & Outlook
University Submarket Station Areas
•
•
•
•
•
•
Market demand for high and medium density apartment uses should accelerate and evolve in
the University submarket as the completion date for the LRT nears, and additional retail and
office uses are developed in response to the area’s rising population and student enrolment.
Recent development patterns for student-oriented apartments has been outpacing enrolment
growth. Should this pattern continue, it is possible that market demand for high and medium
density apartment uses will slow in the medium and long-term. Under such a scenario,
development could be lower than the projections in Table 9 for the University Submarket area.
There has been “flight to quality” in the market place, as purchasers and renters alike look to
upgrade their units with more contemporary on-site amenities, more efficient layouts and
higher quality finishes and appliances. Successful condominium rental projects catering to more
mature students often feature a greater mix of one- and two-bedroom suites (i.e. lower
bedroom counts), with split bedroom designs to further separate tenants through the use of
intervening living space.
In addition to student accommodation demand, end-user purchaser demand should also
increase throughout the study time horizon, particularly from young professionals, first-time
homebuyers, empty nesters and divorcees. Investor purchasers will be comprised of parents of
students and traditional investors from the local area and Greater Toronto Area, while renters
will also include a mix of professionals (in addition to students).
The expansion of the two universities should continue to drive institutional and research office
growth and faculty expansion within the University Station Areas (Seagram & University of
Waterloo), with population-related retail and service commercial demand to follow suit. It is
reasonable to expect institutional space growth in the order of 100,000 to 200,000 square feet
per year for the full spectrum of office and academic uses, although this will vary considerably
throughout the study time period.
Areas such as the easterly portions of the University Submarket should have a competitive
advantage over the traditional automobile-oriented business parks. This is primarily due to their
walkable mix of everyday amenities, restaurants and shops, which create more interesting atwork and post-work urban lifestyles.
SageSage
II Condominiums
II Condominiums
Amenities,
Amenities,
Interior
Interior
Finishes
Finishes
and and
Features
Features
Source:
Source:
Marketing
Marketing
materials
materials
/Buzz/Buzz
Buzz Buzz
Home
Home
29
9. Market Trends & Outlook
Uptown Core Residential Submarket: Station Areas
•
•
•
•
•
Earlier planning initiatives, such as the Uptown Vision 2025 and the recently adopted Official
Plan policies for the Uptown Core/Urban Growth Centre are working to promote a higher
density mixed use environment.
By far, the Uptown Core is the most mature and successful submarket area in Waterloo, as it
has all of the necessary elements in place (e.g. walkable retail, entertainment and community
amenities, animated streetscapes and transit accessibility) to encourage a high quality
intensified community for a broad range of end users, including most notably, empty nesters,
as well as some first-time homebuyers and young professionals.
Projects that opened after the 2009 recession utilized VIP broker events, selling up to 50% of
their units prior to public openings.
Notwithstanding higher average pricing ($420 per foot), the pace of sales is a reasonably
healthy 2.3 sales per project, per month, or 9.2 sales per month combined.
This current market environment allows for small to medium sized projects to succeed. For a
project to be feasible, it is critical to be able to sell about 70% of the units within a reasonable
time period, ideally 18 to 24 months. As the development period stretches outward, the value
of the project declines. The current marketplace would allow for one large project or three
smaller projects to succeed, marketing simultaneously (Table 8).
144 Park & One Fifty Five Uptown
Source: Marketing Materials
Red Condos
Table 8: Sustainable Condominium Apartment Project Sizes
in Current Uptown Core Market Environment
No. of Marketing
Projects
1 Project
2 Projects
3 Projects
Months to 70%
Sales
Sales Per
Month
70% Sales
Project Size
(Units)
24
24
24
9.2
4.6
3.1
221
110
74
315
158
105
Source: N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
Source: Marketing Materials
30
9. Market Trends & Outlook
Uptown Core Residential Submarket: Station Areas
•
•
•
•
Market demand for high and medium density apartment uses in the Uptown
Core is expected to accelerate and evolve as the completion date for the
LRT nears, and additional retail and office uses are developed, creating
greater live-work-play synergies.
We anticipate that Uptown Core should be able to attract some new office
development in the near and medium terms (next 10 years), particularly on
sites where land costs are low, or the City provides subsidies or
inducements.
The City will play a key role in this continued supply of both residential
apartment and office/institutional sites with its significant land holdings in
the Uptown (Figure 8). However, many of these sites are complicated by
long-term parking agreements which may delay the pace of build-out until
suitable development agreements are reached between the relevant
parties.
In the longer term, the gap between achievable net (office) rents and
required economic (replacement) rents should continue to shrink, or
disappear entirely, opening up additional development opportunities.
Figure 8
City-Owned Parcels in the Uptown Core
31
9. Market Trends & Outlook
Growth Expectations
•
•
•
The near term (0-5 year), medium term (6-10 year) and long term (1120 year) outlooks for combined rental and condominium high-rise
apartment demand in the Station Area submarkets are described in
Table 9 and Table 10.
From a residential perspective, NBLC anticipates that condominium
apartment sales absorptions will increase slowly in the near and
medium terms, but should accelerate in the coming decades due to
the presence of the LRT, job growth, student enrolment growth and
the continued infilling of the urban fabric to create more animated/
interesting, amenity-rich and walkable environments.
In the 11 to 20 year timeframe, despite improving contextual
conditions, we anticipate that unit sales in the University and Uptown
Waterloo Core Submarkets will start to become restricted by emerging
supply constraints as redevelopment parcels become more scarce and
costly to assemble and unit prices appreciate and start to become less
affordable to first-time homebuyers.
•
This should benefit the North Waterloo Submarket as a more
affordable alternative, although it is conceivable that a compelling
master plan design may accelerate market demand in those areas in
the medium term.
•
Across Station Areas, the projected residential demand estimates
given above represent annual sales in the order of 372 to 552 units, or
between 56% to 83% of the annual average unit growth experienced
between 2004 and 2011 of 663 units. Note that the 2012
Development Charges Study forecasts an average annual household
growth between 2012 and 2022 of 607 units.
Table 9: Projected Residential Market Demand
by Submarket
Timeframe
Uptown
Core
University
North
Waterloo
Sales Per Month
20 to 25
1 to 3
Totals
(All Station
Areas)
0 to 5 yrs
10 to 12
31 to 40
5 to 10 yrs
12 to 14
20 to 25
3 to 5
35 to 44
11 to 20 yrs
12 to 14
20 to 25
5 to 7
38 to 47
Sales Per Year
0 to 5 yrs
120 to 144
240 to 300
12 to 36
372 to 480
5 to 10 yrs
144 to 168
240 to 300
36 to 60
420 to 528
11 to 20 yrs
144 to 168
240 to 300
60 to 84
444 to 552
Source: NBLC
32
9. Market Trends & Outlook
Growth Expectations
Except as noted otherwise within this report, NBLC shares the
market readiness expectations and sentiments of Colliers as
expressed within the Region of Waterloo Community Building
Strategy (2013). While it is beyond the scope of this market
readiness report to provide more detailed demand forecasts (they
will be provided in the next stage of analysis), we believe the
following guidelines, as augmented by Tables 8 and 9 on the next
page, are useful considerations for future phases of demand analysis
within the Station Areas:
•
•
Industrial space will continue to be a minor component of
growth within the North Waterloo Station Areas, in the order of
5,000 square feet to 15,000 square feet per year, combined, on
average;
Office demand within the North Waterloo and University Station
Areas should increase in the medium and long term following
several years of slower growth due to the readjustment of the
marketplace to BlackBerry’s disposition of its lands. Market
conditions for industrial space conversions and some purposebuilt uses are favourable and should continue that way through
the study time horizon.
•
The unique context of the Uptown Core should afford it some
protection from the office and industrial restructuring to the
north, with demand for space remaining strong , and increasing,
throughout the time horizon of the study.
•
Cumulatively, office additions, as well as purpose-built office
buildings in the North Waterloo and University Station Areas
could add between 50,000 to 150,000 square feet of new space
per year, in the near term, and increase to between 100,000 sf
to 200,000 square feet annually thereafter;
•
Demand for office space in the Uptown Core Station Areas will
continue to be high, but limited in the near and medium terms
by development economics of expansions and additions, likely
adding between of 5,000 to 15,000 square feet per year, on
average. Larger projects, in the order of 100,000 square feet to
200,000 square feet, are most likely to be developed in the
longer term timeframe;
•
Institutional space demand will be highly concentrated within
the University of Waterloo, Seagram and R&T Park Station
Areas, likely averaging between 100,000 and 200,000 square
feet of space combined across the three Station Areas over the
study time horizon, based on recent building permit activity and
enrolment growth expectations. The majority of added space
will be academic related in those areas, although the expansion
of governmental offices in the Uptown Core may be needed to
administer the City’s growth; and,
•
Commercial (retail/service commercial) space demand within
Station Areas will undoubtedly grow, on pace with population
and workforce growth. As well, the regional drawing capacity of
Conestoga Mall and the Uptown Core will strengthen over the
study time horizon, as their prominence grows in the regional
context, appealing to a broader spectrum of national and
international brands.
33
10. Market Readiness Summary by Station Area
Table 10: Market Readiness Summary & Outlook
Station
Area
Near Term (0-5 years)
Medium Term (6-10 years)
Long Term (11-20 years)
Conestoga
Mall
&
Northfield
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office/industrial buildings for sole
users
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office and industrial space
conversion
Residential: Ready for townhouse/stacked townhouse (woodframe construction)
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office/ industrial buildings for sole
users
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office and industrial
space conversion
Residential: Ready for townhouse/stacked townhouse and
smaller condominium apartment projects (<60 units)
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office / industrial buildings for sole
users. Shift to Class ‘A’ office
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office and industrial
space conversion
Residential: Ready for townhouse/stacked townhouse and
medium-sized condominium apartment projects (<100 units)
within master planned communities, including Conestoga Mall’s
surface parking lots
Research &
Technology
Park
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office/industrial buildings for sole
users
Institutional: Ready for office and academic space associated
with UW expansion
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and
student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium apartment)
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions , expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office/industrial buildings for sole
users
Institutional: Ready for office and academic space associated
with UW expansion
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and
student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium apartment)
Office/Industrial: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing
footprints and purpose-built office/industrial buildings for sole
users. Shift to Class ‘A’ space.
Institutional: Ready for office and academic space associated
with UW expansion
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and
student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium apartment)
University
of Waterloo
&
Seagram
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic ) expansion space
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and high
density student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium
apartment) and small/medium scale condominium apartment
projects geared to end users (<80 units)
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users. and Class ‘A’
office space.
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic) expansion space
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and high
density student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium
apartment) and medium scale condominium apartment projects
geared to end users (<100 units)
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users and Class ‘A’
office space.
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic) expansion space
Residential: Ready for townhouse, stacked townhouse and high
density student rental housing (purpose-built/condominium
apartment) and medium scale condominium apartment projects
geared to end users (<100 units)
Uptown
Core
Stations
(Allen/Willis
Way/ Town
Square)
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users, including Class ‘A’
space on low cost sites
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic ) satellite expansion space
Residential: Ready for all forms and tenures of housing, including
one to two medium/ large-scale projects per year (<200 units)
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users, including Class
‘A’ space on low cost sites
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic ) satellite expansion space
Residential: Ready for all forms and tenures of housing,
including one to two medium/ large-scale projects per year (150
-250 units)
Office: Ready for conversions, expansions to existing footprints
and purpose-built office buildings for sole users, including Class
‘A’ space on assembled sites
Institutional: Ready for purpose-built office & university
(academic ) satellite expansion space
Residential: Ready for all forms and tenures of housing,
including one to two medium/ large-scale projects per year
(150-250 units)
Source: NBLC
34