Winter Recreation and
Bioclimatic Comfort MichelleRutty&JeanAndrey
WWOSC2014
• Winter Recreation = downhill skiing &
snowboarding, cross country skiing, snowmobiling,
ice-fishing, ice-climbing, dog sledding
• North America
• ~19 million participate
• 15% Cdn; 8% US
• Skiing: $4bn annually
• Snowmobiling: $28 bn annually
• Canada
▫ ~20% share
• Ontario
▫ 63 snow resorts:
 $228 million
 16% of Cdn skiers
▫ 30,000km of snowmobile trails:
 $1 billion
 22% of Cdn snowmobilers
Context
– Importance of weather and climate for winter recreation
• Winter recreation is weather- and climatedependent
▫ Snow—natural and artificial
• Weather and climate play a salient role in
decision-making
▫
▫
▫
▫
▫
Destination attractiveness
Destination choice
Timing of travel
Travel expenditures
Satisfaction
Context
– Importance of weather forecasts
• Meteorological Community:
• 300 billion forecasts accessed annually by US public
• Used more for discretionary activities
• Higher frequency of use when planning leisure
activities
• Tourism Community:
• Widespread use in holiday planning
• Before & during trip
• However, there have been no assessments of tourists’
climate-service needs and preferences
Weather forecasts are likely to be highly sought
and duly considered by winter recreationists
Method
– Survey
• Online survey – November 2012
• n = 1,948
• Research Objectives
1)
Sources: Identify the source(s) of weather forecast
information utilized when planning a ski/snowmobile trip
in Ontario.
2) Importance: Assess which forecast variables are most
important in trip planning
3) Use: Identify the weather variables most likely to deter a
trip
Key Findings
– Survey
•
Heavy consumers of weather forecasts (>99%)
•
Internet and mobile communication most
important (>95%)
•
Importance of forecast attributes differ
significantly between skiers/snowmobilers
•
Winter weather affects travel and likely to result
in postponed or cancelled trips.
Biometeorology & Winter Recreation
• Weather affects bioclimatic comfort, which in
turn influences experience and satisfaction
 Temperature
 Wind speeds
 Sun/cloud conditions
• Weather information as a double-edged sword
▫ “Bone-chilling temperatures” – National Post, 2014
▫ “Frigid conditions” – Toronto Star, 2014
▫ “The weather: nasty and brutish” – Globe and Mail, 2014
▫ “Six indoor exercise options for winter” – Montreal Gazette, 2014
How often do you check the forecast to ...
Plan how to dress yourself or your children
Skiers
Snowmobilers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
60%
80%
100%
Plan length of outing
Skiers
Snowmobilers
0%
Always
20%
More than half the time
40%
About half the time
Less than half the time
Never
Importance of Forecast Attributes
Wind chill temperature*
Cold temperature*
Warm temperature*
Wind speed*
1
2
3
Skiers/Snowboarders
*Statistically significant differences (p ≤ 0.05)
4
Snowmobilers
5
How likely are you to go if the temperature is ...
10
Temperature (°C)
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
1
2
Skiers/Snowboarders
3
4
Snowmobilers
5
≥81%
would be deterred by a weather forecast
Freezing rain
Rain
Warm temperature
High wind chill
Cold temperature
Heavy snowfall
Sun/cloud conditions
Other
0
20
40
60
Respondents (%)
Skiers
Snowmobilers
80
100
Comfort Tips
– Ontario Snow Resort Association
http://www.skiontario.ca/comfort
Comfort Tips
– Ontario Snow Resort Association
http://www.skiontario.ca/comfort
Comfort Tips
– Ontario Snow Resort Association
http://www.skiontario.ca/comfort
Comfort Tips
– Ontario Snow Resort Association
http://www.skiontario.ca/comfort
93%
of respondents have never heard of
these comfort tips
Next Steps:
• Partnership with the Weather Network
• Provide a link on snow resort websites
• Smartphone apps
Thank You
mkrutty@uwaterloo.ca
Rutty,M&Andrey,J(2014).WeatherForecastUseforWinterRecreation.
Weather,Climate,andSociety,6:293‐306
Extra slides
Forecast Sources
National weather websites*
Snow resort/snowmobile websites
Weather Network Channel
Smartphone Apps
Radio
TV news
Word of mouth
Other websites
Newspaper
0
20
Skiers
40
60
Respondents (%)
Snowmobilers
80
100
Canadian Public
Importance of Forecast Components
Probability of freezing rain
Probability of rain
Amount of freezing rain
Amount of rain
Time of day freezing rain will occur
Time of day rain will occur
Resort/trail conditions
Wind chill temperature
Road conditions
Amount of snow
Probability of snow
Cold temperature
Warm temperature
Wind speed
Time of day snow will occur
Visibility
Sun/cloud conditions
Radar/satellite image
1
2
Skiers
3
4
Snowmobilers
5
Needed Insight
– The Survey (n=1,948)
Research Objectives
1) Sources: Identify the source(s) of weather forecast
information utilized when planning a
ski/snowboarding and snowmobile trip in Ontario.
2) Perceptions: Assess the importance of forecast
components in trip planning
3) Use: Examine forecast use in decision-making,
identify the weather variables most likely to deter a
trip, and explore the influence of poor road
conditions on the decision to travel
Related work
•
Examination of
micro-climate
of Blue
Mountain
Resort
≥66%
would alter travel plans if the roads have
blowing snow and/or poor visibility
Change time of departure
Cancel trip
Change travel route
Change trip destination
Change travel mode
0
20
40
60
Respondents (%)
Skiers
Snowmobilers
80
100
≥53%
would alter travel plans if the roads are icy
and/or snow-packed
Change time of departure
Cancel trip
Change travel route
Change trip destination
Change travel mode
0
20
40
60
Respondents%
Skiers
Snowmobilers
80
100
60
50
(A) Skiers
40
Respondents (%)
30
20
10
0
60
50
(B) Snowmobilers
40
30
20
10
0
Very Low
Low
Medium
Temperature
Probability of precipitation
High
Very High
Wind chill index
Amount of precipitation
60
(A) Skiers
50
40
Respondents (%)
30
20
10
0
60
(B) Snowmobilers
50
40
30
20
10
0
Very Low
Low
Medium
Temperature
Probability of precipitation
High
Very High
Wind chill index
Amount of precipitation
60
(A) Skiers
50
40
Respondents (%)
30
20
10
0
60
(B) Snowmobilers
50
40
30
20
10
0
Very Low
Low
Medium
Temperature
Probability of precipitation
High
Very High
Wind chill index
Amount of precipitation
How frequently do you access weather
forecasts in order to… (1 = never, 5 = always)
Know what the weather will be like
Plan how to dress
Plan travel to resort/trail
Plan length of outing
1
2
3
Skiers
4
Snowmobilers
5
How often do you access the forecast in order to…
Know what the weather will be like
Skiers
Snowmobilers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Plan how to dress yourself or your children
Skiers
Snowmobilers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
60%
80%
100%
Plan length of outing
Skiers
Snowmobilers
0%
Always
20%
More than half the time
40%
About half the time
Less than half the time
Never