Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Cuba Aff
Framework ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Inherency ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Plan Text ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Advantage- Latin America Relations........................................................................................................................................... 5
Advantage- Soft Power ................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Advantage- Human Rights......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Advantage- Democracy ............................................................................................................................................................. 12
Advantage- Terrorism ................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Advantage- US Economy .......................................................................................................................................................... 20
Solvency .................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
**FRONTLINES** ................................................................................................................................................................... 25
AT ESPEC ................................................................................................................................................................................. 26
AT Lifting Embargo Is a Victory For Cuba ............................................................................................................................... 27
AT Only Lift Web Sanctions ..................................................................................................................................................... 28
AT Lifting Sanctions Doesn’t Lead to Democracy.................................................................................................................... 29
AT You Can’t Change Helms-Burton ....................................................................................................................................... 30
AT Sanctions Shun Cuba/Signaling Neg ................................................................................................................................... 31
AT Cuba Poses Threat to US ..................................................................................................................................................... 32
AT Embargo Serves National Interest ....................................................................................................................................... 33
AT Sanctions  Democratic Transition .................................................................................................................................... 34
AT Helms-Burton/LIBERTAD Good........................................................................................................................................ 35
AT No Public Support For Lifting Sanctions ............................................................................................................................ 36
AT Cuba Won’t Change ............................................................................................................................................................ 37
AT Politics DA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 38
AT You Can’t Pick A Specific Country .................................................................................................................................... 39
AT Cuba Can’t Benefit US ........................................................................................................................................................ 40
AT Sanctions Have Been Effective ........................................................................................................................................... 41
1
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Framework
I value morality because the resolution questions what we ought do. Under any moral framework
the protection of rights must be upheld since that is what gives value to individuals.
The standard is protection of rights. In situations where lives are in conflict even a strict
deontologist would say that sacrificing individuals does not deny the unconditional value of
rational beings, Cummisky explains,
Kantian Consequentialism By David Cummiskey Published by Oxford University Press US, 1996 ISBN 0195094530,
9780195094534 192 pages
In such a situation, what would a conscientious Kantian agent, an agent motivated by the unconditional value of rational being choose? We have a duty to promote the conditions necessary for
the existence of rational beings, but both choosing to act and choosing not to act will cost the life of a rational being. Since the basis of Kant’s principle is rational nature exists as an end-in-
If I sacrifice some for the sake
of other rational beings, I do not use them arbitrarily and I do not deny the unconditional value of rational beings.
Persons may have dignity, an unconditional and incomparable value that transcends any market value, but, as
rational beings, persons also have a fundamental equality, which dictates that some must sometimes give
way for the sake of others. The formula of the end-in-itself thus does not support the view that we may
never force another to bear some cost in order to benefit others. If one focuses on the equal value of all
rational beings, then equal consideration dictates that one may sacrifice some to save many.
itself, the reasonable solution to such a dilemma involves promoting, insofar as one can, the conditions necessary for rational beings.
2
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Inherency
Contention One is the Status Quo: The United States remains the only nation that does not have
normal relations with Cuba because they still maintain sanctions against Cuba, Wilkinson writes,
Los Angeles Times October 28, 2009 Wednesday Home Edition HEADLINE: The World; Old policy seen in a new light; The world is eager for Obama
to lift the U.S. embargo on Cuba. But for now, he's still for it. BYLINE: Tracy Wilkinson Tracy Wilkinson (Mexico City). Tracy is Mexico City bureau
chief for the Los Angeles Times, where she has worked since 1987. She has been the paper’s bureau chief in San Salvador, Vienna (from which she covered
the Balkans conflict), Jerusalem and Rome. Her reports have won the Overseas Press Club and George Polk awards
much of the world has moved on. This year, the U.S. is alone in the hemisphere as the only country that
does not have normal diplomatic relations with Cuba; El Salvador, the last holdout, restored full ties in June. The
Organization of American States, which booted Cuba in 1962 as then-President Fidel Castro embraced the Soviet Union, voted in June to let the country
back into the regional body (although Cuba has rebuffed the gesture).
But
3
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Plan Text
Plan: The United States Congress should lift economic sanctions on Cuba by enacting new
legislation repealing the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 and the Cuba Liberty and Solidarity Act
of 1996. The United States Congress should lift the economic, financial, and trade embargo against
Cuba by adopting all relevant bills already introduced in the House of Representatives and the
Senate.
4
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- Latin America Relations
The embargo on Cuba is harming our relations with Latin America, Lugar writes,
CHANGING CUBA POLICY—IN THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INTEREST STAFF TRIP REPORT TO THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED
STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 23, 2009 http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate RICHARD G. LUGAR
, because of Cuba’s symbolic importance to Latin
America, U.S. policy towards the island nation remains a contentious subject with many countries in the
region. Chilean President Michelle Bachelet’s February 2009 visit to Havana, and Cuba’s admission in December 2008 to the Rio Group of more than
20 Latin American and Caribbean countries demonstrate the region’s convergence around a policy of
engagement with Cuba, in sharp contrast to the U.S. policy of isolation. U.S. policy is also a source of controversy between the U.S. and the European
Staff believes that the promised review of Cuba policy will reveal at least four weaknesses in current policy. First
2
Union, as reflected in the perennial transatlantic debate over sanctions versus engagement, as well as in the United Nations, which has passed a widely supported resolution condemning the embargo for the past 17 years.
5
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Removing economic sanctions against Cuba would increase relations with Latin American
countries, Lugar writes,
CHANGING CUBA POLICY—IN THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INTEREST STAFF TRIP REPORT TO THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED
STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 23, 2009 http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate RICHARD G. LUGAR
Cuba is important for the United States because of proximity, intertwined history, and culture. Cuba is important in Latin America because it is a romanticized symbol of a small country that stood up to the most powerful country in the world. The
Cuban Revolution legitimizes some of the passions that fuel the outrage that many Latin Americans feel regarding the inequality of their own societies, and for 50 years, rightly or wrongly, Cuba has ably portrayed itself as having fought this fight for
‘‘U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America goes through
Cuba.’’ With the end of the Cold War, however, the GOC does not represent the security threat to the U.S. that it once did. The USG still has significant grievances with the GOC—mostly, its human rights practices and the stifling of
them, as well as for the downtrodden around the world. During the visit, a Cuban official stated to staff that
political pluralism and property rights as well as the lack of adequate compensation for expropriated assets of U.S. firms and individuals. The remaining security issues, on the other hand, are limited to the potential for a migration crisis provoked by
political or economic instability on the island. While Cuba’s alliance with Venezuela has intentions of influencing regional affairs, the GOC has not been positioned to ably export its Revolution since the collapse of the Soviet Union forced an end to
Cuba’s financial support for Latin American guerrilla movements. The GOC’s program of medical diplomacy, which exports doctors to developing countries, bolsters the island’s soft power, but does not represent a significant threat to U.S. national
security. Given current economic challenges, any revenue gained from economic engagement with the United States would likely be used for internal economic priorities, not international activism.
[…]
Reform of U.S.-Cuban relations would also benefit our regional relations. Certain Latin American leaders, whose political appeal depends on the propagation of an array of anti-Washington grievances, would lose momentum as a
, Latin Americans would view U.S. engagement with Cuba as a demonstration
that the United States understands their perspectives on the history of U.S. policy in the region and no
longer insists that all of Latin America must share U.S. hostility to a 50-year-old regime. The resulting
improvement to the United States’ image in the region would facilitate the advancement of U.S.
interests.
centerpiece of these grievances is removed. More significantly
6
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Relations with Latin America are key to prevent global problems, The Brookings Institution
writes,
Re-Thinking U.S.-Latin American Relations: A Hemispheric Partnership for a Turbulent World Latin America, South America, Global
Economics, Foreign Policy, Climate Change The Brookings Institution November 2008
because of a lack of trust, an inability to undertake stable
commitments by some countries, and different U.S. priorities, the United States and Latin America have rarely developed a genuine and
sustained partnership to address regional—let alone global—challenges.
Developments in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have a very significant impact on the daily lives of those who live in the United States. Yet
a partnership, the risk that
criminal networks pose to the region’s people and institutions will continue to grow. Peaceful nuclear technology may be
adopted more widely, but without proper regional safeguards, the risks of nuclear proliferation will increase.
Adaptation to climate change will take place through isolated, improvised measures by individual
countries, rather than through more effective efforts based on mutual learning and coordination. Illegal
immigration to the United States will continue unabated and unregulated, adding to an ever-larger
underclass that lives and works at the margins of the law. Finally, the countries around the hemisphere,
including the United States, will lose valuable opportunities to tap new markets, make new investments,
and access valuable resources.
If a hemispheric partnership remains elusive, the costs to the United States and its neighbors will be high, in terms of both growing risks and missed opportunities
. Without
7
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- Soft Power
Economic sanctions against Cuba are destroying US relations with other countries, killing US soft
power, Sweig writes,
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin American Studies,
Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know.
http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
U.S. policy toward Cuba is universally derided as ineffectual and an obstacle to the
emergence of a more open, pluralistic society on the island. An opening toward Cuba will be quietly
encouraged and loudly applauded by major U.S. allies in the region, such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile,
Colombia and Mexico,each of which possesses extensive ties to the island and is paying close attention to developments in Cuba during this 50th anniversary year of the revolution . Havana's
brashly ideological allies in the region—Bolivia, Nicaragua and, notably, Venezuela—will find a big argument in their brief
against the United States (i.e. Goliath's penchant for picking on David) substantially undercut. The dozen or so small island countries of the Caribbean, meanwhile, most
,
In the Western Hemisphere
of which vote with Venezuela and Cuba at the Organization of American States and the United Nations will have cause for reconsidering this practice. Beyond Latin America, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara
remain cult heroes for many. Despite its human rights violations, Cuba's leadership has earned grudging respect among multiple generations of intellectuals and political leaders for its social gains and for its
U.S. sanctions have earned the ire of many for casting their punitive reach
on potential business and investment with Cuba. After a five-year freeze, and under the leadership of Spain's prime minister, José Luis Zapatero, the European Union has recently
continued defiance of Washington. In Europe in particular,
lifted economic sanctions and commenced a broad ranging dialogue on civil and political as well as social and cultural rights. A fresh approach to Cuba will send a signal that the era of American hubris in foreign affairs, at least in its own neck of the
woods, may well be coming to an end. A significant dimension of the collapse of America's standing globally during the Bush years was that the United States was willing to use its power willy-nilly without a healthy degree of respect for the views of
Owning up to the
failures of this policy and sending a clear signal of a new approach will gain ready plaudits from our
allies, whose help we will need in confronting real, rather than manufactured and domestically driven, national security challenges.
others, as the Constitution commends. For more than 15 years, the U.N. General Assembly has voted nearly unanimously in support of a Cuban resolution condemning the American embargo against it.
8
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Soft power is key to solve a laundry list of harms
Lex
Rieffel, Former U.S. Treasury official and a graduate professor at George Washington University, 2005, “Reaching Out: Americans Serving
Oversea
one of the great challenges for the USA today is to build a broad coalition of like-minded nations and a set of
capable of maintaining order and addressing global problems such as nuclear
proliferation, epidemics like HIV/AIDS and avian flu, failed states like Somalia and Myanmar, and
environmental degradation. The costs of acting alone or in small coalitions are now more clearly seen to be unsustainable. The
limitations of “hard” instruments of foreign policy have been amply demonstrated in Iraq. Military power can dislodge a tyrant with
Accordingly,
international institutions
great efficiency but cannot build stable and prosperous nations. Appropriately, the appointment of Karen Hughes as Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public
Affairs suggests that the Bush Administration is gearing up to rely more on “soft” instruments. 2
9
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
The United States needs to have good relations with allies to maintain peace and rights protection,
Omestad furthers,
European Nations 'Expect a Lot' From an Obama Presidency Officials have long list of issues to fix, from climate change to
arms control, after rocky Bush years By Thomas Omestad Posted December 8, 2008 Thomas Omestad covers international affairs and
diplomacy. In his 10-plus years with U.S. News, National Press Club’s Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence, 2005 | Washington Monthly Journalism Award,
1995 | Harrison Salisbury Achievement Award given by the Minnesota Daily Alumni Association, 2006 | Jefferson Fellow with the East-West Center for a study project in India
and Pakistan, 2006 Omestad, a Minneapolis native, received a bachelor of science in economics, with honors, from the University of Minnesota in 1982, graduating Phi Beta
Kappa. He also studied political science, business, German, and Japanese.
The need for an intensified partnership, say diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic, is truly urgent. An increasingly
assertive Russia needs to be engaged but also deterred from actions like its invasion and partial
occupation of neighboring Georgia in August. A more dangerous Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan—now a
NATO as well as a U.S. war—needs to be put down. Stalled Middle East peace efforts need new focus
and energy. Iran's accelerating nuclear program has to be reined in. Climate change must be confronted
more rapidly. And, amid recession and reeling financial markets, both sides of the Atlantic need to spur
economic growth and reform the global financial system.
10
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- Human Rights
US Embargo leads to unnecessary medical suffering, Wilkinson writes,
Stephen Wilkinson director of the Centre for Caribbean and Latin American Research and Consultancy at London
Metropolitan University “Cruel Cuban embargo must end” 11/28/2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/28/cuba-embargo-un-united-nations
The report also highlights the moral case by detailing the cost to the Cuban people – the very people it is supposed to help. A meaner, more inhumane policy is hard to imagine. For example, the report shows
the embargo stops Cuba from obtaining diagnostic equipment and replacement parts for equipment
used in the detection of breast, colon, and prostate cancer. It stops Cuba from obtaining materials that
are needed for pediatric cardiac surgery and the diagnosis of pediatric illnesses. It prevents Cuba from
purchasing antiretroviral drugs for the treatment of HIV-Aids. It stops Cuba from obtaining materials
used for the diagnosis of Downs' Syndrome and drugs that alleviate the side effects of chemotherapy.
I have seen the cancer wards in a Havana hospital where children with leukemia were vomiting 16 hours
per day for lack of these drugs. It is hard to imagine how the suffering of children can possibly help
make Cuba democratic or endear the US to their parents.
how
11
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- Democracy
The sanctions against Cuba have only encouraged people to listen to Castro, not defy him,
Mitchell writes,
The irony of U.S. policy toward Cuba is that it seeks a peaceful transition to democracy in that country, yet actively
encourages the opposite effect. During the cold war, Castro’s Soviet-oriented policies were a challenge to U.S. interest. Washington was constantly at war in various ways with the Cuban Leader, elevating
him in status to a world figure, far out of proportion to his position as the dictator of a tiny island. Today, Castro’s foreign policies are generally conducted according
to international expectations, and his significance for the United States has largely disappeared. But the
U.S. has not changed its policy toward him and thus continues to project himself as larger than life onto
the world stage. Therefore those who proclaim themselves Castro’s worst enemies have in fact become
guarantors of his heritage as an unflinching “anti-imperialist,” still defying what he calls U.S. efforts to
stamp out any diversity in the world.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
12
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
The embargo has strengthened the Cuban government and not helped the Cuban citizens
Daniel Griswold is the director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. “The US Embargo of Cuba is a Failure”
Guardian Online June 15, 2009. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10295
The embargo has been a failure by every measure. It has not changed the course or nature of the Cuban government. It has
not liberated a single Cuban citizen. In fact, the embargo has made the Cuban people a bit more
impoverished, without making them one bit more free. At the same time, it has deprived Americans of their
freedom to travel and has cost US farmers and other producers billions of dollars of potential exports.
As a tool of US foreign policy, the embargo actually enhances the Castro government's standing by
giving it a handy excuse for the failures of the island's Caribbean-style socialism. Brothers Fidel and
Raul can rail for hours about the suffering the embargo inflicts on Cubans, even though the damage done
by their communist policies has been far worse. The embargo has failed to give us an ounce of extra
leverage over what happens in Havana.
13
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Increased contact with Americans could help democratize Cuba,
Daniel Griswold is the director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. “The US Embargo of Cuba is a Failure”
Guardian Online June 15, 2009. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10295
Meanwhile, the increase in Americans visiting Cuba would dramatically increase contact between
Cubans and Americans. The unique US-Cuban relationship that flourished before Castro could be
renewed, which would increase US influence and potentially hasten the decline of the communist
regime.
14
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Latin America is a key model to make democratic transitions effective, Fauriol and Weintraub
write,
(Georges, director of the CSIS Americas Program, and Sidney, William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS,
Professor at School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Summer 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18,
No. 3, “U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone,” p. 123)
The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department regularly parades the fact that all countries in the hemisphere, save one, now have democratically elected governments. True enough, as long as the
definition of democracy is flexible, but these countries turned to democracy mostly of their own volition. It is hard to determine if the United States is using the democracy theme as a club in the hemisphere (hold elections or be excluded) or promoting
it as a goal. If as a club, its efficacy is limited to this hemisphere, as the 1994 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Indonesia demonstrated in its call for free trade in that region, replete with nondemocratic nations, by 2020.
Latin Americans are somewhat cynical as to whether the United States really cares deeply
about promoting democracy if this conflicts with expanding exports. Yet this triad of objectives economic liberalization and free trade, democratization, and sustainable development/alleviation of
poverty - is generally accepted in the hemisphere. The commitment to the latter two varies by country,
but all three are taken as valid. All three are also themes expounded widely by the United States, but
with more vigor in this hemisphere than anywhere else in the developing world. Thus, failure to advance
on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.
Following that meeting,
15
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Historically countries we have engaged with in Latin America have shed their authoritarian
regimes
Aaron Lukas is an analyst with the Cato Institute's “ It's Time, Finally, to End the Cuban Embargo” Center for Trade Policy Studies 12/14/2001
History shows that isolation isn't necessarily an effective means of fostering change. In 1970, 17 of 26
countries in Latin America and the Caribbean had authoritarian regimes. Today, only Cuba has a
dictatorial regime. Yet only Cuba has been subjected to a comprehensive embargo. Elsewhere, economic
engagement has been the rule. That the Cuban people have suffered under a brutal tyrant is indisputable;
that the embargo has made their plight worse is equally obvious.
16
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Democratic governance is key to international stability – prevents terrorism, genocide, and
environmental destruction, Diamond 95
Diamond 95, a professor, lecturer, adviser, and author on foreign policy, foreign aid, and democracy. [Larry Diamond, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s: Actors and
instruments, issues and imperatives : a report to the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict”, December 1995, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/di.htm]
. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not
go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically
"cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against
one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another.
Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more
environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the
destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness
makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret . Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of
law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security
and prosperity can be built.
The experience of this century offers important lessons
17
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- Terrorism
The embargo shifts funds away from the fight on terrorism, Lukas writes,
Aaron Lukas is an analyst with the Cato Institute's “ It's Time, Finally, to End the Cuban Embargo” Center for Trade Policy
Studies 12/14/2001
the embargo backfired, it wastes American resources that are needed to fight terrorism. Treasury officials
who could be unraveling terrorist financial networks are instead tracing property owned by Spanish
hotels in Cuba to make sure it wasn't stolen from Americans decades ago. INS agents that could be
watching our borders for suicide bombers are instead worrying about tourists who may have spent
money in Havana. These shouldn't be our top priorities. In fact, they shouldn't be priorities at all.
Not only has
18
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Terrorism leads to extinction, even if the attack fails, Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, 2004
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed 04 Political Analyst, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from certain – the weapons used are
less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far , except for the two bombs dropped on Japan,
nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated.
This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be
used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would be
the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which
we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of
human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would
proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world
order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a
third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will
be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
19
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Advantage- US Economy
The embargo is having a devastating effect on the United States, Griswold writes,
Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba by Daniel Griswold Daniel Griswold is director of the Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute. This article appeared on http://www.cato.org/cato.org on October 12, 2005.
Presented at the the James A. Baker III Institute Program, Cuba and the United States in the 21st Century at Rice University, Houston,
Texas
Cuban families are not the only victims of the embargo. Many of the dollars Cubans could earn from U.S. tourists would come back to the United States to buy American products, especially farm goods.
In 2000, Congress approved a modest opening of the embargo. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 allows cash-only sales to Cuba
of U.S. farm products and medical supplies. The results of this opening have been quite amazing. Since 2000, total sales of farm products to Cuba have increased
from virtually zero to $380 million last year. From dead last in U.S. farm export markets, Cuba ranked
25th last year out of 228 countries in total purchases of U.S. farm products. Cuba is now the fifth largest
export market in Latin America for U.S. farm exports. American farmers sold more to Cuba last year
than to Brazil. Our leading exports to Cuba are meat and poultry, rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans.
The American Farm Bureau estimates that Cuba could eventually become a $1 billion agricultural export market for products of U.S. farmers and ranchers. The embargo stifles another $250
million in potential annual exports of fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides and tractors. According to a study by the U.S. International Trade
Commission, the embargo costs American firms a total of $700 million to $1.2 billion per year. Farmers in Texas and neighboring states
are among the biggest potential winners. One study by Texas A&M University estimated that Texas ranks fifth among states in potential farm exports to Cuba, with rice, poultry, beef and fertilizer the top exports.
20
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Sanctions on Cuba have cost the United States nearly 900,000 jobs, Lynch writes,
Dr. Tim Lynch, Adjunct Professor Florida State May 2004
“ESTIMATION OF ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC
SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE EMERGENCE OF CUBA INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN A POST U.S. TRADE
EMBARGO
ERA
–
ECONOMIC
IMPACTS
ON
THE
U.S.
ECONOMY”
http://www.remi.com/uploads/File/Articles/article_059ay.pdf
With the assumption of 12% increase in Cuba GDP growth, Cuba’s exports to the U.S. would reach $4.21 billion and imports from the U.S. would be $9.47 billion by the year 2013. In the next 20 years, the
exports from Cuba would exceed $19 billion and the imports from U.S. would be close to $29 billion.
The REMI model estimates over twenty years that free trade with Cuba would increase U.S. GDP an
additional $102 to $253 billion. The REMI results suggest that the average foregone cost of continuing
the U.S. embargo would be between $1.8 to $12.7 billion, in foregone productivity annually.
The REMI model estimates that the employment impact of the free trade would be 315,269 to 845,621
jobs over these twenty years. The annual job creation gains would range between 16 to 42 thousand,
over these 20 years. • An estimated $1 to $2.1 billion increase in economic benefits for the Florida economy over 35 years is estimated from removal of the travel ban to Cuba alone.
21
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
US econ collapse causes power vacuum – multiple nuclear wars, terrorism and extinction
Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2008 “The Dangers of a Diminished America” AARON FRIEDBERG and GABRIEL SCHOENFELD
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html
the
stability of our economy, among other things, made it easier for us to run huge budget deficits, as we counted on foreigners to pick up the
Then there are the dolorous consequences of a potential collapse of the world's financial architecture. For decades now, Americans have enjoyed the advantages of being at the center of that system. The worldwide use of the dollar, and
tab by buying dollar-denominated assets as a safe haven. Will this be possible in the future?
traditional foreign-policy challenges are multiplying. The threat from al Qaeda and Islamic
terrorist affiliates has not been extinguished. Iran and North Korea are continuing on their bellicose
paths, while Pakistan and Afghanistan are progressing smartly down the road to chaos. Russia's new
militancy and China's seemingly relentless rise also give cause for concern.
If America now tries to pull back from the world stage, it will leave a dangerous power vacuum. The stabilizing
Meanwhile,
effects of our presence in Asia, our continuing commitment to Europe, and our position as defender of last resort for Middle East energy sources and supply lines could all be placed at risk.
In such a scenario there are shades of the 1930s, when global trade and finance ground nearly to a halt,
the peaceful democracies failed to cooperate, and aggressive powers led by the remorseless fanatics who
rose up on the crest of economic disaster exploited their divisions. Today we run the risk that rogue states may choose to become ever more
reckless with their nuclear toys, just at our moment of maximum vulnerability.
The aftershocks of the financial crisis will almost certainly rock our principal strategic competitors even
harder than they will rock us. The dramatic free fall of the Russian stock market has demonstrated the fragility of a state whose economic performance hinges on high oil prices, now driven down by the global
slowdown . China is perhaps even more fragile, its economic growth depending heavily on foreign investment and access
to foreign markets. Both will now be constricted, inflicting economic pain and perhaps even sparking
unrest in a country where political legitimacy rests on progress in the long march to prosperity.
22
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Solvency
Only by lifting the embargo on Cuba can we hope for change, Mitchell writes,
The only way to take the initiative away form Castro and give it to the U.S., for the first time since 1959,
is to lift the embargo all at once. Cuba’s reputation as a giant-killer would initially soar. In effect, it would finally have won the century-old battle to have its
sovereignty and legitimacy officially recognized by the United States. For America’s part the act should
be accompanied by clear statements that Castro has been dropped from America’s “Most Wanted” to its
“Least Relevant” list. The point is not that declaring a one-sided truce with Castro-by lifting the
embargo- will necessarily bring democracy and improved human rights to Cuba, but rather that the
embargo has not brought these either, shows no signs whatsoever of being able to do so in the future,
and has many actual and potential adverse effects on U.S. interests.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
23
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
Gradually lifting doesn’t solve- it must be whole and immediate, Mitchell writes,
. A partial lifting of the embargo in response to some change for the
better in the Castro regime will not work. First, it is inconceivable to any but the most intractable antiCastro elements in the United States that a settlement could occur on the basis of the Helms-Burton
provisions calling for virtual political suicide on the part of the Revolution. Second, this quid pro quo
approach has failed in the past and will likely fail in the future. Castro will never willingly allow himself
to be seen as succumbing to Washington’s directives. He may play with the idea of normalization; but at
the moment he perceives his control and Cuban sovereignty threatened, he will revert to the status quo.
There are two basic ways to lift the embargo, piecemeal or all at once
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
24
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
**FRONTLINES**
25
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT ESPEC
1. The plan is pretty clear at explaining how the aff would implement lifting the sanctions
against Cuba.
2. Here is evidence that explains how the plan would be implemented, Amnesty International
writes,
The US President has the authority to lift the embargo, with Congressional approval, only if certain conditions are
met within Cuba, namely that a transitional government is in place and that a democratic process is established. However, the President can also send a clear message to Congress on the necessity of adopting a new approach towards
Cuba in line with the foreign policy of his administration and in compliance with 17 successive resolutions from the UN General Assembly calling for the lifting of the embargo, and similar calls from the Inter-American Commission
on Human Rights. The economic, trade and financial sanctions against Cuba, compounded by the lack of measures from the US government to monitor and alleviate the negative impact of the embargo on the Cuban population, are
defeating the purpose of the provisions of the ICESCR, in particular with regards to advancing the rights of the Covenant through international co-operation. The US government is also acting contrary to the Charter of the United
Nations by restricting the direct import of medicine and medical equipment and supplies, and by imposing those restrictions on companies operating in third countries. On these grounds, Amnesty International is calling on President
� Not to extend beyond September 2009 the status of “national emergency” with regards to
Cuba under the Trading With the Enemy Act, or to issue a Presidential Proclamation stating the
Termination of the Exercise of Authorities Under the Trading With the Enemy Act With Respect
to Cuba. � To instruct the US Treasury Department and other relevant agencies enforcing export restrictions to Cuba to allow all UN agencies operating in Cuba immediate and unrestricted access to the US market and
financial institutions and further ensure that exports and transfers of materials, equipment and other resources can be achieved without undue restrictions. � To establish, pending the total
lifting of the embargo, an independent mechanism for the monitoring of the impact of remaining
sanctions and ensure that steps are taken to limit to the minimum the sanctions’ impact on the
right to health in Cuba. The lifting of the embargo will require the US Congress to enact new
legislation repealing the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 and the Cuba Liberty and Solidarity
(Libertad) Act of 1996. Amnesty International calls on the US Congress: To take, without further
delay, the necessary steps towards lifting the economic, financial and trade embargo against
Cuba. This can be achieved within the current Congress session by adopting the bills already
introduced in the House of Representatives and the Senate aimed at that purpose.
Barack Obama:
�
��
��
�
�
��
26
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Lifting Embargo Is a Victory For Cuba
Lifting the embargo would just be recognition of a failed policy, Griswold writes,
Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba by Daniel Griswold Daniel Griswold is director of the Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute. This article appeared on http://www.cato.org/cato.org on October 12, 2005.
Presented at the the James A. Baker III Institute Program, Cuba and the United States in the 21st Century at Rice University, Houston,
Texas
Lifting or modifying the embargo would not be a victory for Fidel Castro or his oppressive regime. It would be
an overdue acknowledgement that the four-and-a-half decade embargo has failed, and that commercial
engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad. The U.S. government can and
should continue to criticize the Cuban government's abuse of human rights in the U.N. and elsewhere,
while allowing expanding trade and tourism to undermine Castro's authority from below.
Lifting the embargo does not send the message that Cuba can do whatever it wants-nobody
actually thinks Cuba is a rogue government in the first place. Mitchell writes,
the lifting of the embargo is not an endorsement of Castro’s leadership of Cuba, but rather a more
effective use of America’s resources to achieve the best outcome for the United States and Cuba . When President
Advocating
Nixon began the normalization process with the Peoples’ Republic of China in 1972, he was dealing with a leader in Mao Tse-Tung whose policies during the Great Leap Forward just over a decade earlier had killed enough people to equal the current
the United States even struck a deal to lift the embargo on Stalinist North
Korea. Is Castro really more incorrigible than Mao Tse-Tung and Kim Jong Il?
total population of Cuba three times over. A quarter of a century later
,
Havana’s counter-dependency achievements have served to enhance its already considerable
political and diplomatic credentials in the hemisphere as well as in the larger international community.
Moreover, Havana has already met the challenge of making the changes in both its domestic and foreign policies necessary to assure that the Revolution will survive in the post-Cold War world. This makes it
increasingly difficult for those in the United States who argue for a hard-line policy of Cuban
exceptionalism. The basic idea here is that it is rather difficult to portray Havana as a special case- a “rogue government” requiring
abnormally harsh treatment when practically all other countries in the Western Hemisphere and
elsewhere (among them Washington’s closest traditional allies) maintain conventional diplomatic relations with Cuba. Many of them are expanding their trade
The fact is that
and commercial ties to the island, and some are establishing cooperative developmental coalitions with it.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
27
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Only Lift Web Sanctions
The PIC doesn’t solve-only lifting web sanctions just pisses the Cuban government off, AFP
March 15th,
HAVANA —
A US decision to ease sanctions on Cuba and two other countries to allow exports of Internet services is
intended to "destabilize" the communist island, Cuba's government has said.
The US State Department announced March 8 it would ease sanctions against Cuba, Iran and Sudan to increase citizens' access to online communication tools and boost "free speech and information to the
greatest extent possible."
Castro's government said the decision "said clearly that its objective was to use these service as tools of
subversion and destabilization," according to statement from the Cuban Foreign Ministry.
"This shows once again that the US government is not interesting in softening its policy nor in developing normal
relations with Cuba, but only in developing a network that facilitates its subversive actions in our
nation," the statement added.
But Cuban President Raul
The US Treasury Department modified sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Sudan to allow exports by US companies of services related to Web browsing, blogging, email, instant messaging, chat, social
networking and photo- and movie-sharing.
Cuban authorities exercise strict control over the Internet, blocking communication sites like Skype and blogs that are critical of the government.
Few Cubans have access to the Internet, which is cannot be installed in private residences without express permission from authorities.
Where access is available in places like hotels, the cost -- often eight dollars an hour in a country where a monthly salary runs around 20 dollars -- is prohibitively high
Cuba slams US easing of sanctions on Web services
(AFP) – Mar 15, 2010
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iylZk-tZQ9hyqMU8UPeB4aLqupxg
28
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Lifting Sanctions Doesn’t Lead to Democracy
To say that lifting sanctions would immediately result in democracy is to set your goals too highchange will come, but it’s just a matter of being patient. Lifting the sanctions is a prerequisite to
democratic change, and lays the initial groundwork for democratization, Sweig writes,
to think that an end to the embargo will speedily usher in an era of multiparty elections and
market capitalism would be to set your administration up for failure. Cuba is today and will remain for some time a one-party state with a controlled press
and significant impediments to individual freedoms. Thus, in your own mind, and publicly, it is best to frame any moves toward Cuba as matters of American
national interest. At the same time, you should assert your belief that greater openness from the United States has the potential to lay
the groundwork for a more open society on the island, where human rights and personal freedom can accompany Cuba's long-standing aspirations to social justice and national
sovereignty. These values are shared by Cubans on the island and in the diaspora, but their implementation
would still stop well short of raising the unrealistic expectation that a new U.S. approach can accelerate
a full-scale democratic and pro-market transition. A historical note worth considering: when Henry Kissinger sent a few key deputies to secretly meet with Castro's envoys in 1975,
At this stage, however
,
he acted for geopolitical reasons first and foremost; he harbored no illusions about the domestic impact within Cuba of an opening with the United States. Nor did he demand preconditions before sending his emissaries to talk with Fidel's. Neither
a less hostile policy will strengthen those within Cuba who are already making the case for
greater freedoms and economic liberties at home, but who are thwarted by hard-liners whose positions
are repeatedly reinforced by the reliable hostility of U.S. policies. In that sense, by simply taking steps to
remove the United States as an excuse for domestic repression, and thereby helping reduce the siege
mentality that has left its corrosive mark, you will contribute, over time, to change in Cuba.
should you. But be assured that
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin
American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to
Know. http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
29
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT You Can’t Change Helms-Burton
You’re just wrong,
Again and again we hear that the embargo can't be changed because the Helms-Burton law codified it.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Whether you agree or disagree with the current commercial embargo, the president can effectively
dismantle it by using his executive authority. Helms-Burton codified the embargo regulation, but those
regulations provide that ``all transactions are prohibited except as specifically authorized by the
Secretary of the Treasury by means of regulations, rulings, instructions, and licenses.'' This means that
the president's power remains unfettered. He can instruct the secretary to extend, revise or modify
embargo regulations. The proof of this statement is that President Bill Clinton issued new regulations for
expanded travel and remittances in order to help individuals and grow civil society.
Vicki Huddleston is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana.
Carlos Pascual is vice president of the Brookings Institution. They are co-directors of the Brookings project on U.S. Policy
Toward a Cuba in Transition. Use ‘Smart Power’ to help Cubans
Miami Herald Op Ed 2/24/09
30
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Sanctions Shun Cuba/Signaling Neg
The US should not use sanctions against Cuba as a signal of disapproval, Peters writes,
U.S. policy should also avoid sending signals that America hopes to use economic deprivation to
promote political change and seeks to encroach on decisions that should be made by Cubans. The
embargo has long banned U.S. trade and investment, but the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act created a
barrier to other nations’ trade with Cuba by providing that any ship that calls on a Cuban port— even
if it delivers humanitarian cargo only—is barred from U.S. ports for six months. A provision of the 1996 Helms-Burton law
urges the president to “propose and seek” in the UN Security Council a “mandatory international embargo against the totalitarian Cuban government.” Those measures, clearly
targeted at the Cuban economy and intended to affect ordinary Cubans, make U.S. assurances that
sanctions are aimed only at the government ring hollow.
27
A Policy toward Cuba That Serves
U.S. Interests by Philip Peters No. 384 November 2, 2000
31
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Cuba Poses Threat to US
Cuba does not pose a threat to the United States, Griswold writes,
Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba by Daniel Griswold Daniel Griswold is director of the Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute. This article appeared on http://www.cato.org/cato.org on October 12, 2005.
Presented at the the James A. Baker III Institute Program, Cuba and the United States in the 21st Century at Rice University, Houston,
Texas.
, "Cuba does not pose a significant military threat to the U.S. or to other
countries in the region." The report declared Cuba's military forces "residual" and "defensive." Some officials in the Bush
administration have charged that Castro's government may be supporting terrorists abroad, but the evidence is
pretty shaky. And even if true, maintaining a comprehensive trade embargo would be a blunt and
ineffective lever for change.
A 1998 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that
32
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Embargo Serves National Interest
Welcome to this century- Cuba has not posed a threat to the United States in your lifetime, Lugar
writes,
the U.S. embargo has not served a national security agenda since Cuba ceased to be an effective
threat to the security of the United States. In the immediate post-Cold War era, the cost of maintaining this policy was negligible in comparison to the domestic political benefit derived from
satisfying Cuban-American groups in the United States. The USG justified the embargo policy as an incentive or inducement for
negotiations with the Cuban gov- ernment, the rationale being that the U.S. would lift the embargo, or parts of
it, in response to reform on human rights and democracy. This narrow approach, however , has not furthered
progress in human rights or democracy in Cuba and has come at the expense of other direct and regional
strategic U.S. interests. Today it is clear that a reform of our policy would serve U.S. security and economic interests
in managing migration effectively and combating the illegal drug trade, among other interests . By seizing the initiative
In hindsight
,
at the beginning of a new U.S. Administration and at an important moment in Cuban history, the USG would relinquish a conditional posture that has made any policy changes contingent on Havana, not Washington.
CHANGING CUBA POLICY—IN THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INTEREST STAFF TRIP
REPORT TO THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE
HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION FEBRUARY 23, 2009
http://www.access.gpo.gov/congress/senate RICHARD G. LUGAR
33
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Sanctions  Democratic Transition
TURN: The transition to a democracy would not be a peaceful one, Mitchell writes,
, if the embargo’s economic pressure
will not force Castro’s adoption of democratic elections, the only implicit rationale for keeping the
embargo is that the overall economic suffering will trigger the violent overthrow of the government.
Considering the extensive and heavily armed security forces within Cuba, such a transition could be
very violent. An attempt at violent overthrow could entail a split among the various security forces,
which would likely increase the level of initial armed conflict, not to mention a continuing aftermath of retribution. The resulting chaos could draw
the United States into involvement. Therefore, even if U.S. domestic opinion generally opposed such an intervention,
significant losses by anti-Castro forces during a general uprising or civil war would result in enormous
pressure on Washington to send military support.
The strategy of the U.S. policy is to make life evermore difficult in Cuba so that Castro will make reforms or the Cuban people will overthrow him. In other words
This strategy can only aid Castro who does his best to convince Cubans that if the Cuban-Americans
return in force, backed by Washington and the International Monetary Fund, they will seize the properties they abandoned—or that were confiscated—nearly four
decades ago and in general retake and remake Cuba in their own image. Cubans have been told that a new regime
would mean a loss of status, homes, jobs, security, and in some cases, lives. The new government, they fear, would
undertake major free market reforms that would bring chaos to Cuba comparable to that in post-Soviet
Russia.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
34
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Helms-Burton/LIBERTAD Good
LIBERTAD is imperialistic and encouraging people to support the Castro regime, Mitchell writes,
The LIBERTAD act is so imperialistic and offensive to Cubans that Castro has made it widely available
to be read and discussed in schools, universities, work centers, and civic organizations. Because of the bulk of the legislation
focuses more on property claims and less on the stated goal of “assisting the Cuban people in regaining their freedom and prosperity,” Castro recognizes the powerful affront ordinary
Cubans feel concerning the spirit of the law. Rather than causing Cubans to rise up and revolt against the
Castro government, the embargo has actually had the affect of uniting Cubans in Cuba against the
common enemy: the Cubans in Miami and the United States. The gap between Cubans in Cuba and Cuban-Americans, as one analyst points out, will likely pose an
enormous challenge after Castro is gone. “By bringing back the issue of property rights and the division between the ‘haves’ who
left and the ‘have-nots’ who stayed,” notes Ana Jatar, “Helms-Burton has reunited the Cuban society behind the
Castro government, and deepened feelings of distrust against the United States. Read from Havana, U.S. policy seems more concerned with
old properties than with new democracy.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
The Helms-Burton act has not been effective, and has only empowered Cuba, Mitchell writes,
Helms-Burton gives Castro his best propaganda tool to feed these fears, and he has used it masterfully. In January 1997,
Cuba passed a law penalizing U.S. citizens who seek restitution of their expropriated properties under
the Helms-Burton provisions. Significantly, the law recognizes the right of individuals to seek compensation for their losses prior to the 1959 revolution, once the United
States and Cuba negotiate an agreement. However, it excludes U.S. citizens from any indemnification settlement if they take action
against Cuba under Helms-Burton. The Cuban law also allows Cubans citizens to sue for claims of
“theft, torture, corruptions and murder” from Batista era officials who now reside in the United States.
Finally, it allows Cubans to pursue damage claims against the United States stemming from U.S. military
and economic action against the island.
The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project
35
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT No Public Support For Lifting Sanctions
Americans support lifting the embargo on Cuba-polls prove, Sweig writes,
, American public opinion is ready for a change as well, and a significant one at that.
polls consistently indicate that a majority of Americans believe they should be able to travel to
and trade with Cuba and that Washington and Havana should reestablish diplomatic relations. Even
among your toughest audience, the Cuban-American community, a consensus is emerging that current policy has
failed and that neither the Cuban nor the U.S. government has any business getting in the way of
individuals' desires to help family members on the island. Cuban-Americans also favor an end to travel restrictions for all Americans, not just for themselves.
Such views have only become stronger in the wake of the devastating damage wrought upon the island
by hurricanes Gustav, Ike and Paloma last summer and fall. Regardless, Cuban Americans today make up only 7 percent of Florida's electorate in national elections. Even as you recognize the importance of Cuban-American family
For many of the same reasons
,
Nationally
ties and perhaps, in the future, as part of a new wave of foreign investment there, they are not the only stakeholders in building a better modus vivendi with Cuba.
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin
American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to
Know. http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
36
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Cuba Won’t Change
Cuba is changing under Raul Castro’s rule, Sweig writes,
Raúl Castro's First Year The second major issue or caveat relates to what is happening in Cuba today. In the aftermath of Fidel Castro's illness (announced during the summer of 2006) and Raúl Castro's election
to the Cuban presidency in early 2008, it looked to most observers that Cuban authorities would carry out a number of potentially significant, though modest and modestly paced, economic reforms aimed at
The words privatization or free market are seldom used in official
Cuban discourse about changes in the economy. But by decentralizing and distributing land titles and
otherwise promoting more free enterprise in the agricultural sector, lifting previous caps on wages, and
announcing his intention of reducing the economic involvement and size of the state bureaucracy, Raúl
has clearly signaled a new era is emerging. At times, he has sounded more like Margaret Thatcher than Karl Marx, stressing the need for Cubans to improve their
increasing the personal freedoms and material conditions of Cuban citizens.
work ethic, efficiency and productivity. In one major speech, for example, he cautioned that "equality is not the same as egalitarianism," which itself could be "a form of exploitation of the good workers by
those who are less productive and lazy," and warned Cubans not to expect the state to foot the bill indefinitely for an enormous range of goods and service. On balance, for the first half of 2008, Cuba exuded
confidence internally and internationally, with a diversified trade and investment portfolio, the financial backing of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and new investments from Brazil, China, Spain and Russia.
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin
American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to
Know. http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
37
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Politics DA
There is bipartisan support for legislation to lift sanctions on Cuba, Sweig writes,
, there is a latent bipartisan consensus in Congress to lift the embargo.
Legislation to lift travel and trade sanctions passed between 2000 and 2002, but was stripped in
conference when the GOP leadership worked with Cuban-American Republicans in the House and with the White House to prevent any liberalization of Cuba policy. Now, with a stronger
Democratic majority in the House and Senate, and especially because of the severity of hurricane damage to Cuba, you can expect to see
legislation calling for an end to restrictions on Cuban-American travel and remittances and on all
American travel to Cuba. You can also anticipate bills calling for a suspension of the embargo, its complete elimination or possibly even the repeal of Helms-Burton. Indeed, leading
Republicans in both chambers have already joined their Democratic colleagues in advancing a range of
such initiatives. Likewise, there is bound to be legislation to significantly boost aid to promote democracy, civil society and human rights. These programs have rightly come under scrutiny for corruption and ineffectiveness in
Congress — As with American public opinion generally
recent years. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton should work with the key appropriations and authorizations committees to cleanse from the U.S. Agency for International Development all vestiges of programs that smell of regime change. They are
ineffectual, they hurt genuine reformers on the island, they provoke the Cuban government to no apparent end and they diminish the credibility of America's real bona fides on democracy, as well as those of Cuban dissidents.
Cover: Memo to President Obama Julia Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow and Director, Latin
American Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book, Cuba: What Everyone Needs to
Know. http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/CA_Archives/CA_Show_Article/0,2322,2194,00.html February 5th, 2009
The political tide is shifting. Politicians can afford to be in favor of lifting the embargo
Robert Schlesinger “Obama's Revamp of Cuba Travel Policy Is Overdue, But the Embargo Should Come Next” 4/14/2009
USNEWS.com
. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win the overall Hispanic vote in Florida--even
though he lost among Cuban-Americans. And even among that demographic, time is on the side of normalized relations. While Obama, who pledged to loosen the travel ban but leave the
embargo in place, won only 35 percent of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County, he won 55 percent of those under the age of 29. That's not a coincidence. A December Florida International
University poll found that Cuban-Americans between 18 and 44 favored lifting travel restrictions by a margin of 75 percent to 25 percent. Those
over 65 were only 51-to-49 percent in favor. More starkly, those 18 to 44 opposed the embargo 65 percent to 35 percent . Cuban-Americans over 65 favored it, 68 percent
First, the bloc's power is fading
to 32 percent.
As the power of the Cuban lobby fades, broader considerations are gaining importance.
Not only demographics are changing.
I
asked Rep. Bill Delahunt, a Massachusetts Democrat who cochairs the House's Cuba Working Group, about the Cuba lobby's ebbing influence. "We now have people on our side of the issue who are saying, 'We support candidates who have a different
view in terms of what the relationship ought to be,' " he said. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the tourism industry, and other such interests are pushing an agenda involving more practical issues
38
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT You Can’t Pick A Specific Country
39
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Cuba Can’t Benefit US
Cuba has the potential for billions of barrels of oil
Robert Schlesinger “Obama's Revamp of Cuba Travel Policy Is Overdue, But the Embargo Should Come Next” 4/14/2009
USNEWS.com
. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Cuba's offshore oil fields hold 5 billion barrels
of oil and 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. (Cuba's government, not surprisingly, sets the oil figure at 20 billion barrels, which would put it on par with the United States.)
Whether you're a conservationist concerned about despoiling the seas or a member of the "drill, baby,
drill" crowd worried that foreign countries like China might get oil from just off our shores, there are
compelling reasons to engage Cuba.
Take, for example, energy
40
Northland
Roberts
Cuba Aff
TOC
AT Sanctions Have Been Effective
The current sanctions have been ineffective, Seiglie writes,
“Embracing Cuba” Carlos Seiglie is professor of economics and global affairs at Rutgers University, Newark The Record
(Bergen County, NJ) 5/10/2009
First, Cuba’s communist regime has been highly effective in eliminating any political opposition that
would threaten its power.
Second, the U.S. sanctions on Cuba have been imposed unilaterally, with the rest of the world
continuing to trade with Cuba. Since Cuba has continued to have access to the world market, the impact
of the U.S. embargo on the economy has been minimal, with the much larger cost being self-imposed by
the policies of a recalcitrant and anachronistic leadership.
Unlike places like China, Cuba has made no attempt at establishing private property rights or using the
forces of the market to develop its economy.
41