MARKET REVIEW JULY 2006
No 9 / 2006
.
Floating rate notes (FRN) with embedded call options go
to the stock exchange
DEBT MARKETS
annual yield (%)
benchm ark yield curves in the euro area 30.06.2006 and 31.07.2006
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30.06.2006
31.07.2006
o/n depo
1w depo
1m depo
3m bill
12m bill
3y bond
5y bond
7y bond
10y bond
instrum ent
.
annual yield (%)
benchm ark yield curves in Bulgaria 30.06.2006 and 31.07.2006
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
30.06.2006
31.07.2006
o/n depo
1w depo
1m depo
3m bill
12m bill
3y bond
5y bond
7y bond
10y bond
instrum ent
.
annual yield (%)
Bulgaria and euro area benchm ark yield curves 31.07.2006
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Bulgaria
euro area
SOFImid
o/n depo
1w depo
1m depo
3m bill
12m bill
3y bond
5y bond
7y bond
10y bond
instrum ent
middle of
SOFIBID and
SOFIBOR
.
annual yield (%)
yields on EUR-denom inated govt securities in Bulgaria and on the euro area curve 31.07.2006
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
BG domestic
BG Eurobond
BG global
euro area
3m
bill
12m bill
2y bond
3y bond
4y bond
5y bond
6y bond
7y bond
8y bond
9y bond
10y bond 15y bond
instrum ent
.
2
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
3M SOFIBID
3M SOFIBOR
No issuance of
3M government
securities in July
3M T-bill
LEONIA
BIR
03
.0
1.2
00
6
03
.0
2.2
00
6
03
.0
3.2
00
6
03
.0
4.2
00
6
03
.0
5.2
00
6
03
.0
6.2
00
6
03
.0
7.2
00
6
interest rate (%)
SOFIBOR and 3M T-bill issuance
Jan - July 2006
.
1. MONEY MARKET
The interbank money market monthly volume went on
Ivanka Ivancheva
(+359 2) 9145 1712
rising in July 2006 and the deals totalled BGN 5094.4
million, BGN 323.7 million, or 6.79 per cent more than in
June. The increase comes from a growth in the volume of
the deposit lending part of term transactions, in total by
6.03 per cent, in unsecured lending by 6.31 per cent, and
in secured lending by 74.78 per cent, while in the repo-
More secured lending,
less repos
transactions part there is a 27.02% volume decrease. After
one month of decrease, July marks a 31.39% growth in
outright transactions, both BGN denominated and foreigncurrency (USD and EUR) denominated government
securities are traded and the growth is only in BGN
denominated issues trading, by 37.33 per cent. With a high
level of liquidity and an availability of large resources
continuing in July, the rise in money market transactions
volume is moderate; banks also remain active in
Euromoney market dealing, but this month both USD and
EUR term transactions (deposit and repo deals) and
outright purchases mark a decrease, but mainly in the USD
part.
The average daily excess reserves in July reached BGN
39225 thousand, increasing from June’s figure (BGN
3
23 547 thousand) by 66.58 per cent. In 11 calendar days
(3rd to 4th, in the middle from 14th to 16th, and from 26th to
31st including holidays) of the month there was relative
resource shortage (negative excess reserves); in the last
days this preceeded the decrease in the additional
minimum required reserves for the new maintenance
period.
INTERBANK MONEY MARKET AND EXCESS RESERES July 2006
/in thous ands of BGN/
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
03
.0
7
04
.0
7
05
.0
7
06
..0
7
07
.0
7
10
.0
7
11
.0
7
12
.0
7
13
.0
7
14
.0
7
17
.0
7
18
.0
7
19
.0
7
20
.0
7
21
.0
7
24
.0
7
25
.0
7
26
.0
7
27
.0
7
28
.0
7
31
.0
7
0
-200000
m one y m ark e t e xce s s re s e rve s
свръхре зе рви
.
In the last day of July interbank activity followed the
pattern established in the previous year and in the last day
reached BGN 769.4 million, almost 4 times the daily
volume of transactions in the previous days of the month
but BGN 34.8 million less than the volume on 30st June.
Liquidity in the banking system has been influenced for
years by monetary flows through government securities
(bills and bonds of the Ministry of Finance), and in July
there is a net inflow from banks of some BGN 79.1
million as an increase in resources. Pension transfers
amount to BGN 425 million as an increase in resources.
deposit deals (BGN thousand), July 2006
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
3.07
5.07
7.07
11.07
ALL DEPOSIT DEALS
.
13.07
17.07
UNSECURED
19.07
21.07
25.07
Of which overnight
27.07
31.07
4
1.1. Interbank market: deposit lending and repo transactions
1.1.1. Cash market
Deposit lending maintains a prevailing share in the
interbank money market volume, 98.83 per cent in July
after 98.28 per cent in June. It is commercial banks’ main
tool for managing current, daily liquidity.
1.1.1.1.Unsecured market
Term deposit lending between market participants is
mainly unsecured and in July it is BGN 4816.3 million,
98.11 per cent of the total amount of transactions, and
98.63 of this (BGN 4750.1 million) is overnight deals.
.
unsecured deposit market (BGN thousand), July 2006
7.
07
10
.0
7
11
.0
7
12
.0
7
13
.0
7
14
.0
7
17
.0
7
18
.0
7
19
.0
7
20
.0
7
21
.0
7
24
.0
7
25
.0
7
26
.0
7
27
.0
7
28
.0
7
31
.0
7
6.
07
5.
07
4.
07
3.
07
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
overnight
other
Commercial banks, via overnight transactions, provide
additional resources at the beginning of every month for
the regulation of required minimum reserves and in the
middle of the month for clients’ payments.
5
.
LEONIA / EONIA
3.00
2.00
1.00
`
LEONIA
31
.0
7
27
.0
7
25
.0
7
21
.0
7
19
.0
7
17
.0
7
13
.0
7
11
.0
7
7.
07
5.
07
3.
07
0.00
EONIA
The July monthly average of
the LEONIA, a reference
rate based on unsecured
overnight deposit lending by
The monthly average for the overnight interest rate is an
14 banks, rose to 2.80%.
annual 2.80% and is 0.11 percentage points higher than
Hence the size of the BNB
the BIR (base interest rate, effective from the first calendar
base interest rate for August
day of each month and equal to the simple average of the
is 2.80%.
LEONIA reference rate from the previous month), which
for July is 2.69%.
Interest rates moved in July close to the euro area's
EONIA, which topped at 2.83% (in eleven from 21
working days), versus a low of 2.76% on 11th July.
1.1.1.2.Secured market
Secured term resource lending transactions remain with a
small share in the interbank market, up to 0.71 per cent for
deposit lending (BGN 35.0 million) and down to 1.18 per
cent for repo deals (BGN 57.9 million) in July from
respectively 0.43 per cent and 1.71 per cent in June.
1.1.2. Derivatives market
Not yet developed in the country.
6
BULGARIAN INTERBANK MONEY MARKET AND EUROMONEY MARKET DEALS BETWEEN BULGARIAN BANKSТ July 2006 (in millions of the respective currencies)
MARKETS: interbank money market
euromoney market deals between Bulgarian banks
deals in BGN
value in
millions of
BGN
deals in EUR
equivalent in value in
millions of
millions of
EUR
EUR
deals in USD
equivalent in value in
millions of
millions of
BGN
USD
deals in other currencies
equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in
millions of
millions of millions of
millions of
BGN
EUR
BGN
EUR
TYPES OF DEALS:
unsecured deposit deals
4816.3
2462.5
2307.5
4513.1
1617.0
2493.4
1274.9
164.4
84.0
secured deposit deals
35.0
17.9
13.9
27.1
2.8
4.3
2.2
-
-
repo* of Bulgarian govt securities
57.7
29.5
232.1
454.0
24.9
38.3
19.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
outright purchases of short-term BGN Bulgarian govt securities
-
outright purchases of long-term** BGN Bulgarian govt securities
185.0
94.6
-
_
outright purchases of long-term** forex Bulgarian govt securities
0.5
0.3
22.6
44.1
-
-
-
* only the security purchase (money lending) leg
** bonds of over 1 year in original maturity
Source: BNB, from commercial banks' daily reports
.
1.2. Outright purchases of securities on the secondary market
On the interbank secondary market for government
securities outright purchases mark a 31.39 per cent rise
over June. There were deals in BGN denominated issues
longer than 12M, 99.72 per cent (BGN 185 million) of the
total amount, and in foreign-currency (EUR) denominated
issues, 0.28 per cent (BGN 0.5 million), compared to
respectively 95.41 per cent (BGN denominated, also
longer than 12M) and 4.59 per cent (foreign-currency EUR and USD - denominated) in June.
OUTRIGHT DEALS IN BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, JULY
2006 г. (BGN thousand)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
4.07
6.07
10.07
BGN-denominated securities up to 12M
12.07
14.07
18.07
20.07
BGN-denominated securities over 12M
24.07
26.07
28.07
forex-denominated securities
.
7
2. CAPITAL MARKET
The following primary auction of government securities
Boris Malinchev
(+359 2) 9145 1704
was carried out by the Bulgarian National Bank as
agent of the Ministry of Finance in July:
-
on 24th
July
for issue №BG2040006210 (10Y
treasury bonds) with maturity date 4th January 2016
New opening of the 10Y
government bond issue
at the amount of BGN 20 million and 3.50%
coupon;
In June the Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSESofia) registered for trading on the unofficial market of
bonds the following corporate bond issues:
-
5Y unsecured bonds for EUR 5 million issued by
United Milk Company AD, issuance date 3rd
February 2006, annual interest 8%, and 6-month
coupon payment (stock-exchange code BOMK);
-
New issues of corporate
bonds admitted for
stock-exchange trading
3Y unsecured bonds for EUR 2.2 million issued by
Lease Company AD, issuance date 10th November
2005, annual interest 7.75%, and 6-month coupon
payment (stock-exchange code BLK);
-
3Y unsecured bonds for EUR 20 million issued by
Bulgarian-American Credit Bank AD, issuance date
14th December 2005, annual interest 3.70%, and 6month coupon payment (stock-exchange code
BBACB2);
-
4Y secured bonds with call option for EUR 2
million issued by Agrilease EAD, issuance date 7th
Now also callable notes …
February 2006, annual interest 3M EURIBOR +
4.15%, and 3-month coupon payment (stockexchange code BAGRI);
-
4Y secured bonds with call option for EUR 2
million issued by Translease EAD, issuance date 7th
8
February 2006, annual interest 3M EURIBOR +
4.15%, and 3-month coupon payment (stockexchange code BTRAN);
The
monthly
secondary
market
stock-exchange
turnover of municipal and corporate bonds was almost
two times lower than in June and amounted to BGN
21.6 million (a daily average of BGN 1.0 million)
including repo-operations for BGN 4 million.
.
On the world markets the price of EUR-denominated
2007 Bulgarian Eurobonds kept around the 102%
mark, of EUR-denominated 2013 globals – up to the
117% mark, and of USD-denominated 2015 globals
rose to 115%.
On the secondary market the price of the compensation
instruments during the whole month was about BGN
0.64 per item. The compensation instruments market
turnover amounted to BGN 10.4 million (a daily
average of BGN 0.5 million).
.
9
03
04 .0 1.
05 .0 20
1
06 .0 1.. 20 06
09 .0 20 06
1
10 .0 1.. 20 06
11 .0 20 06
1
12 .0 1.. 20 06
1 .0 1 20 06
163 .0 . 20 06
1
1 .0 1. 2 06
187 .0 . 200 06
1
1 .0 1. 2 06
209 .0 . 200 06
1
2 .0 1. 2 06
243 .0 . 200 06
1
2 .0 1. 2 06
265 .0 . 200 06
1
0
.
2 1. 2 06
287 .0 . 200 06
1
0
.
30 1.. 20 06
31 .0 1. 20 006
01 .0 20 6
1
02 .0 2.. 20 06
03 .0 20 06
2
06 .0 2.. 20 06
07 .0 20 06
2
08 .0 2.. 20 06
09 .0 20 06
2
10 .0 2.. 20 06
13 .0 20 06
2
14 .0 2.. 20 06
15 .0 20 06
2
16 .0 2.. 20 06
1 .0 2 20 06
207 .0 . 20 06
2
2 .0 2. 2 06
221 .0 . 200 06
2
0
.
2 2. 2 06
243 .0 . 200 06
2
0
.
2 2. 2 06
287 .0 . 200 06
2
0
.
0 2. 2 06
021 .0 . 200 06
3
0
.
0 3. 2 06
076 .0 . 200 06
3
0
.
08 3.. 20 06
09 .0 3. 20 006
10 .0 20 6
3
13 .0 3.. 20 06
14 .0 20 06
3
15 .0 3.. 20 06
16 .0 20 06
3
17 .0 3.. 20 06
20 .0 20 06
3
2 .0 3. 2 06
212 .0 . 200 06
3
2 .0 3. 2 06
234 .0 . 200 06
3
27 .0 3.. 20 06
0
.
2 3 20 06
298 .0 . 20 06
3
0
.
3 3. 2 06
310 .0 . 200 06
3
0
.
0 3. 2 06
043 .0 . 200 06
4
0
.
0 4. 2 06
065 .0 . 200 06
4
0
.
0 4. 2 06
107 .0 . 200 06
4
0
.
1 4. 2 06
121 .0 . 200 06
4
0
.
13 4.. 20 06
14 .0 4. 20 006
17 .0 20 6
4
1 .0 4. 2 06
189 .0 . 200 06
4
2 .0 4. 2 06
201 .0 . 200 06
4
2 .0 4. 2 06
256 .0 . 200 06
4
2 .0 4. 2 06
278 .0 . 200 06
4
0 .0 4. 2 06
023 .0 . 200 06
5
0 .0 5. 2 06
045 .0 . 200 06
5
08 .0 5.. 20 06
0
.
0 5 20 06
109 .0 . 20 06
5
0
.
1 5. 2 06
121 .0 . 200 06
5
0
.
1 5. 2 06
165 .0 . 200 06
5
0
.
1 5. 2 06
187 .0 . 200 06
5
0
.
1 5. 2 06
229 .0 . 200 06
5
23 .0 5.. 20 06
25 .0 20 06
5
26 .0 5.. 20 06
2 .0 5 20 06
390 .0 . 20 06
5
3 .0 5. 2 06
011 .0 . 200 06
5
0 .0 6. 2 06
025 .0 . 200 06
6
0 .0 6. 2 06
067 .0 . 200 06
6
0 .0 6. 2 06
089 .0 . 200 06
6
1 .0 6. 2 06
132 .0 . 200 06
6
14 .0 6.. 20 06
0
.
1 6 20 06
165 .0 . 20 06
6
0
.
1 6. 2 06
209 .0 . 200 06
6
21 .0 6.. 20 06
22 .0 20 06
6
23 .0 6.. 20 06
26 .0 20 06
6
27 .0 6.. 20 06
28 .0 20 06
6
29 .0 6.. 20 06
30 .0 20 06
6
03 .0 6.. 20 06
0 .0 7 20 06
045 .0 . 20 06
7
0 .0 7. 2 06
067 .0 . 200 06
7
1 .0 7. 2 06
110 .0 . 200 06
7
1 .0 7. 2 06
132 .0 . 200 06
7
1 .0 7. 2 06
174 .0 . 200 06
7
1 .0 7. 2 06
198 .0 . 200 06
7
20 .0 7.. 20 06
21 .0 7. 20 006
24 .0 20 6
7
25 .0 7.. 20 06
26 .0 20 06
7
27 .0 7.. 20 06
28 .0 20 06
7
31 .0 7.. 20 06
.0 7 20 06
. 20 06
06
03
04 .0
1
05 .0 1.. 20
0 .0 2 0
06 .0 1. 0 06
190 .0 1. 220 06
11 .0 1. 20 06
1
12 .0 1.. 200 066
1 .0 2 0
163 .0 1. 20 066
17 .0 1. 20 0
1
18 .0 1.. 200 066
1 .0 2 0
209 .0 1. 20 066
2 .0 1. 0
243 .0 1. 220 006
1
2 .0 1. 20 06
25 .0 . 20 06
267 .0 1. 20 066
28 .0 1. 20 0
1
30 .0 1.. 200 066
3 .0 2 0
011 .0 1. 20 066
02 .0 1. 20 0
2
03 .0 2.. 200 066
0 .0 2 0
06 .0 2. 0 06
078 .0 2. 220 06
09 .0 2. 20 06
2
1 .0 2. 20 06
10 .0 . 20 06
143 .0 2. 20 066
15 .0 2. 20 0
2
16 .0 2.. 200 066
1 .0 2 0
207 .0 2. 20 066
2 .0 2. 0
221 .0 2. 220 006
2
2 .0 2. 20 06
23 .0 . 20 06
247 .0 2. 20 066
28 .0 2. 20 0
2
0 .0 2. 20 06
01 .0 . 20 06
062 .0 3. 20 066
0 .0 3. 0
087 .0 3. 220 006
3
0 .0 3. 20 06
109 .0 . 200 066
1 .0 3. 0
143 .0 3. 220 06
3
1 .0 3. 20 06
15 .0 . 20 06
167 .0 3. 20 066
2 .0 3. 0
210 .0 3. 220 006
3
2 .0 3. 20 06
232 .0 . 200 066
2 .0 3. 0
274 .0 3. 220 06
3
2 .0 3. 20 06
298 .0 . 200 066
3 .0 3. 0
30 .0 3. 20 6
013 .0 3. 220 006
3
0 .0 4. 20 06
045 .0 . 200 066
0 .0 4. 0
076 .0 4. 220 06
4
1 .0 4. 20 06
110 .0 . 200 066
1 .0 4. 0
132 .0 4. 220 06
4
1 .0 4. 20 06
174 .0 . 200 066
1 .0 4. 0
18 .0 4. 20 6
290 .0 4. 220 006
4
2 .0 4. 20 06
215 .0 . 200 066
2 .0 4. 0
276 .0 4. 220 06
4
2 .0 4. 20 06
028 .0 . 200 066
0 .0 4. 0
043 .0 5. 220 06
05 .0 5. 20 06
5
08 .0 5.. 200 066
0 .0 2 0
19 .0 5. 0 06
101 .0 5. 220 06
5
1 .0 5. 20 06
125 .0 . 200 066
1 .0 5. 0
176 .0 5. 220 06
18 .0 5. 20 06
5
19 .0 5.. 200 066
2 .0 2 0
232 .0 5. 20 066
25 .0 5. 20 0
5
26 .0 5.. 200 066
2 .0 2 0
39 .0 5. 0 06
301 .0 5. 220 06
01 .0 5. 20 06
5
02 .0 6.. 200 066
0 .0 2 0
065 .0 6. 20 066
07 .0 6. 20 0
6
08 .0 6.. 200 066
0 .0 2 0
129 .0 6. 20 066
1 .0 6. 0
143 .0 6. 220 006
6
1 .0 6. 20 06
15 .0 . 20 06
169 .0 6. 20 066
20 .0 6. 20 0
6
21 .0 6.. 200 066
2 .0 2 0
232 .0 6. 20 066
26 .0 6. 20 0
6
27 .0 6.. 200 066
2 .0 2 0
298 .0 6. 20 066
3 .0 6. 0
030 .0 6. 220 006
6
0 .0 7. 20 06
04 .0 . 20 06
056 .0 7. 20 066
07 .0 7. 20 0
7
10 .0 7.. 200 066
1 .0 2 0
121 .0 7. 20 066
1 .0 7. 0
143 .0 7. 220 006
7
1 .0 7. 20 06
187 .0 . 200 066
1 .0 7. 0
209 .0 7. 220 06
7
2 .0 7. 20 06
21 .0 . 20 06
245 .0 7. 20 066
2 .0 7. 0
276 .0 7. 220 006
7
2 .0 7. 20 06
318 .0 . 200 066
.0 77. 2 06
. 200 0
066
BG40 and SOFIX
ASSET MARKETS
190.00
NET ASSETS:
GROSS ASSETS:
real estate
commodities
1100.000
1050.000
1000.000
950.000
900.000
850.000
800.000
750.000
700.000
650.000
1.4
01. Декемвр и
03. Ян уар и
15. Декемвр и
1250.00
170.00
150.00
1100.00
130.00
950.00
110.00
800.00
equity
Jan-Jul 2006
BG40
(the index is quarterly)
17. Ян уар и
30. Декемвр и
30. Ян уар и
16. Ян уар и
13. Февр уар и
28. Ян уар и
27. Февр уар и
10. Февр уар и
14. М ар т
24. Февр уар и
28. М ар т
13. М ар т
11. Ап р и л
27. М ар т
10. Ап р и л
SOFIX
.
REMI sales: Aug 2002 = 100.00; rent: Jan-Mar 2004 = 100.00
225
200
175
150
125
100
sales (l)
26. Ап р и л
11. М ай
25. Ап р и л
26. М ай
10. М ай
25. М ай
09. Юн и
08. Юн и
23. Юн и
22. Юн и
07. Юли
06. Юли
200
175
150
125
100
75
Jan-Jul 2006
rent (r)
.
GOLD
21. Юли
XAUBGN
.
FOREX
1.8
forex
1.7
1.6
1.5
20. Юли
USDBGN
.
10
BIG MAC INDEX ABSOLUT E 2006 (BGN per USD)
indices
based
on
the
purchasing power parity
calculated
via
only 1
commodity: the BIG MAC
2.00000
1.75000
1.50000
1.25000
1.00000
0.75000
03.Ян
уа
ри
17.Ян
уа
ри
30.Ян
уа
ри
13.Фе
в ру а
ри
27.Фе
в ру а
ри
14.Ма
рт
28.Ма
рт
11.Ап рил
26.Ап рил
XR
11.Ма
й
26.Ма
й
09.Юн
и
23.Юн
и
07.Юли
21.Юли
PPP
.
size of the undervaluation of
the BGN vis-à-vis the
purchasing power parity
BIG MAC INDEX RELAT IVE 2006 (%)
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
03 .Ян
уа
ри
1 7 .Ян
уа
ри
3 0.Ян
уа
ри
1 3 .Фе
в ру а
ри
2 7 .Фе
в ру а
ри
1 4 .Ма
рт
2 8 .Ма
рт
1 1 .Ап рил
2 6 .Ап рил
1 1 .Ма
й
2 6 .Ма
й
09 .Юн
и
2 3 .Юн
и
07 .Юли
2 1 .Юли
VALUATION
.
BIG MAC INDEX ABSOLUT E 2006 (BGN per EUR)
2.00000
1.75000
1.50000
1.25000
1.00000
0.75000
03 .Ян
уа
ри
1 7 .Ян
уа
ри
3 0.Ян
уа
ри
1 3 .Фе
в ру а
ри
2 7 .Фе
в ру а
ри
1 4 .Ма
рт
2 8 .Ма
рт
1 1 .Ап рил
2 6 .Ап рил
XR
1 1 .Ма
й
2 6 .Ма
й
09 .Юн
и
2 3 .Юн
и
07 .Юли
2 1 .Юли
size of the undervaluation of
the BGN vis-à-vis the
purchasing power parity
PPP
.
BIG MAC INDEX RELAT IVE 2006 (%)
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
03 .Ян
уа
ри
1 7 .Ян
уа
ри
3 0.Ян
уа
ри
1 3 .Фе
в ру а
ри
2 7 .Фе
в ру а
ри
1 4 .Ма
рт
2 8 .Ма
рт
1 1 .Ап ри л
2 6 .Ап ри л
1 1 .Ма
й
2 6 .Ма
й
09 .Юн
и
2 3 .Юн
и
07 .Юли
2 1 .Юли
VALUATION
.
11
Boris Malinchev
(+359 2) 9145 1704
1. EQUITY CAPITAL (NET ASSETS)
BSE-SOFIA IPO MARKET (in millions of BGN) July 2006
Segments
IPO shares
Securities to be traded on:
official
market
IPO bonds
unofficial
market
DEALS:
-
official
market
10.1
IPO govt securities
unofficial
market
-
IPO other securities
official market
official
market
-
unofficial
market
-
-
0.1
Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports
.
BSE-SOFIA TRADE IN SECURITIES (in millions of BGN) July 2006
Markets
Segments at which the
instruments are registered
EQUITY MARKET
official
unofficial
market of market
shares
segments unoff.
A,B,C
market of
shares
BOND MARKET
official market of bonds
unofficial market of bonds
govt
securities
municipal
bonds
corporate
bonds
municipal
bonds
corporate
bonds
OTHER
unofficial market
compensative
instruments
market
NON-BOURSE
public
non-public
unofficial market of other
dematerialised securities
(rights/shares)(units/funds)
INSTRUMENTS AND DEALS:
Trade in primary instruments,
of which:
regular deals
block deals; transfers
repos
tender purchases
tender sales (large stakes)
auctions
primary sales for listing
redemption
privatis. market deals (cash)
Privatis. market (compensative)
13.0
73.4
-
-
3.0
-
18.6
10.4
0.5
0.2
-
-
12.4
0.0
0.6
-
73.0
0.4
-
-
-
1.7
1.3
-
-
15.9
2.7
-
10.4
-
0.2
0.3
-
0.2
-
-
-
-
Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports
.
The Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSE-Sofia)
monthly turnover in shares decreased almost twice
compared with the Juny volume and was BGN 86.4
million (a daily average of BGN 4.1 million), including
repo deals for BGN 0.6 million and block deals (and
deals registered via authorised intermediaries) for BGN
0.4 million.
The major deals in ordinary trading were concluded for
shares in BTC, BACB AD, Odessos Shipyard AD, and
Toplivo AD.
.
12
The price trend of the Bulgarian market was of mild
appreciation, while there was stagnation on the leading
foreign markets.
.
.
PENSION FUND PRICE INDICES (1 JULY 2004 BGN 1)
1.2
1.18
BGN
1.16
VOLIDEX
1.14
PROFIDEX
1.12
UNIDEX
1.1
31.07.2006
29.07.2006
27.07.2006
25.07.2006
23.07.2006
21.07.2006
19.07.2006
17.07.2006
15.07.2006
13.07.2006
11.07.2006
09.07.2006
07.07.2006
05.07.2006
1.06
03.07.2006
1.08
.
13
Placements of shares at the amount of BGN 10.1
million were effected on the IPO market of the BSESofia in July.
.
2. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
Lubomir Tonev
(+359 2) 9145 1608
Daniel Yankov
(+359 2) 9145 1610
In July the USD/BGN exchange rate ranged from
1.52871 (5th July), to 1.56692 (19th July).
Daily BNB reference exchange rate for the USD, July 2006
1.5700
1.5600
1.5500
1.5400
BGN per USD 1
1.5300
1.5200
1.5100
03
.0
7
05
.0
7
07
.0
7
09
.0
7
11
.0
7
13
.0
7
15
.0
7
17
.0
7
19
.0
7
21
.0
7
23
.0
7
25
.0
7
27
.0
7
29
.0
7
31
.0
7
1.5000
.
14
Daily USD turnover and exchange rates (commercial banks), July 2006
100.00
75.00
50.00
1.5800
31.07
28.07
27.07
26.07
25.07
24.07
21.07
20.07
19.07
18.07
17.07
14.07
13.07
12.07
11.07
10.07
07.07
1.4800
06.07
0.00
05.07
1.5300
04.07
25.00
03.07
USD mln
1.6300
BGN per USD 1
1.6800
traded between commercial banks
bought from customers
sold to customers
average rate for purchases from customers
average rate for sales to customers
average interbank rate
.
Total monthly foreign exchange market turnover, July 2005
to July 2006
Jul-06
6256.1
Jun-06
6273.8
May-06
7605.3
Apr-06
6904.5
Mar-06
5834.9
Feb-06
4277.7
Jan-06
4307.4
Dec-05
4590
Nov-05
4215.7
Oct-05
4231.1
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
in mln of EUR
3775.7
4568.4
4210.2
.
In July the total turnover of the (spot) foreign exchange
market reached to EUR 6 256.1 million. The average
daily turnover was EUR 297.9 million. The interbank
turnover (without BNB) was, in euro terms, EUR 67.4
million. The USD trade between commercial banks was
USD 30.7 million and comprised 35.9 per cent of
interbank foreign exchange trading (without BNB).
15
Foreign exchange trading between commercial banks, July 2005 to July
2006
Jul-06
67.4
Jun-06
113
May-06
46.7
Apr-06
88.1
Mar-06
123.8
Feb-06
85.7
Jan-06
136.6
Dec-05
in mln of EUR
92.7
Nov-05
83.8
Oct-05
86.6
Sep-05
74.5
Aug-05
65
Jul-05
79.2
.
Monthly EUR trading between BNB and commercial banks,
July 2005 to July 2006
501
542
70
472-400
616
-600
190
-800
649
101
426-
Jul-05
504
150
354-
548-
Aug-05
565
12
489-
Oct-05
Sep-05
-1000
1198
381
153
412-
129-
510-
Nov-05
655
113
542-
Jan-06
Dec-05
-1200
963
174
789-
Feb-06
-1400
1389
236
129
1069-
Apr-06
Mar-06
1138 1129
246
883-
1153-
May-06
267
871-
Jul-06
Jun-06
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EUR mln
net
bought from commercial banks
sold to commercial banks
.
16
Foreign exchange trading between commercial banks, July 2006
100
in millions of EUR
75
50
25
31
.0
7
29
.0
7
27
.0
7
25
.0
7
23
.0
7
21
.0
7
19
.0
7
17
.0
7
15
.0
7
13
.0
7
11
.0
7
09
.0
7
07
.0
7
05
.0
7
03
.0
7
0
.
EUR exchange rate, July 2006
BGN per EUR 1
1.99984
1.95583
03
.0
04 7
.0
05 7
.0
06 7
.0
07 7
.0
08 7
.0
09 7
.0
10 7
.0
11 7
.0
12 7
.0
13 7
.0
14 7
.0
15 7
.0
16 7
.0
17 7
.0
18 7
.0
19 7
.0
20 7
.0
21 7
.0
22 7
.0
23 7
.0
24 7
.0
25 7
.0
26 7
.0
27 7
.0
28 7
.0
29 7
.0
30 7
.0
31 7
.0
7
1.91182
BNB
comm.banks from customers
interbank
comm.banks to customers
.
On the interbank market, the BNB purchased EUR 1 137.6
million and sold EUR 871.4 million.
The amount of
foreign exchange that the BNB sold to budgetary
organisations (equal to EUR 24.5 million), exceeded BNB
purchases
(equal to EUR 5.1 million) by EUR 19.4
million.
Daily EUR turnover (commercial banks), July 2006
100
50
25
7
7
.0
31
7
.0
30
7
.0
29
7
.0
.0
27
28
7
7
.0
.0
sold to customers
26
7
25
7
.0
.0
24
7
23
.0
7
boug ht from customers
22
7
.0
21
7
.0
20
7
.0
.0
18
19
7
7
.0
.0
16
traded between commercial banks
17
7
7
.0
.0
15
7
14
7
.0
13
7
.0
12
7
.0
11
7
.0
.0
09
10
7
7
.0
.0
07
08
7
7
.0
.0
06
7
05
.0
04
.0
7
0
03
EUR mln
75
.
17
Daily EUR trading between BNB and commercial banks, July 2006
200.00
160.00
120.00
EUR mln
80.00
40.00
0.00
-40.00
-80.00
-120.00
03
.0
7
04
.0
7
05
.0
7
06
.0
7
07
.0
7
08
.0
7
09
.0
7
10
.0
7
11
.0
7
12
.0
7
13
.0
7
14
.0
7
15
.0
7
16
.0
7
17
.0
7
18
.0
7
19
.0
7
20
.0
7
21
.0
7
22
.0
7
23
.0
7
24
.0
7
25
.0
7
26
.0
7
27
.0
7
28
.0
7
29
.0
7
30
.0
7
31
.0
7
-160.00
-200.00
"+" BNB purchases; "-" BNB sales"
spot value (net)
tomorrow value
same day value
.
The trade between commercial banks and customers
amounted to EUR 2 072.5 million, and the amount of
foreign exchange that commercial banks bought (equal to
EUR 1 161.1 million) exceeded their sales (equal to EUR
911.3 million) by EUR 249.8 million. Within this
turnover, the commercial banks bought foreign exchange
from foreign entities equal to EUR 49.1 million and sold
to them foreign exchange equal to EUR 17.9 million.
Non-bank financial intermediaries, licensed by the BNB
for foreign exchange trading, purchased foreign exchange
equal to EUR 101.9 million and sold foreign currencies
equal to EUR 104.3 million.
Foreign exchange trading of commercial banks with customers, July 2006
125
100
75
25
31
.0
7
29
.0
7
27
.0
7
25
.0
7
23
.0
7
21
.0
7
19
.0
7
17
.0
7
15
.0
7
13
.0
7
11
.0
7
09
.0
7
07
.0
7
-25
05
.0
7
0
03
.0
7
in millions of EUR
50
-50
-75
-100
bought f rom customers
.
sold to customers
net
18
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET JULY 2006
(in millions of EUR)
Purchases
67.4
1161.1
1143.0
1137.6
Interbank market
Comm. banks with customers
BNB total
BNB with commercial banks
of which:
*with commercial banks - SPOT
*with commercial banks - TOM
*with commercial banks - TDY
*with commercial banks - NOTES
BNB transactions with budgetary organisations
BNB notes operations at counters
46.9
0.0
1090.8
0.0
5.1
0.2
Sales
67.4
911.3
896.7
871.4
Balance
0.0
249.8
246.3
266.3
871.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.5
0.8
-824.5
0.0
1090.8
0.0
-19.4
-0.5
.
Currency structure of forex trading, July 2006
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
other currencies
40%
USD
30%
EUR
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
1-total (BNB,com m .banks,custom ers); 2-interbank
(w ithout BNB); 3-com m ercial banks w ith custom ers;
4-forex trading of non-bank financial interm idiaries
.
TENDENCIES
Short-term expectations:
-
increase
in
money
market
turnover
with
the
redistribution of liquidity after the easing of restrictions
under the BNB’ Regulation №21 and release of part of
mandatory reserves; interest rates are in line with the euro
area base rate, 3.0 % from early August;
- SOFIX and BG40 indices to reach the high levels (close
or higher than the historical values) of around 930 and 175
respectively;
- USD/BGN to move within 1.50-1.55.
19