POLI 687A/2 A STATECRAFT AND GLOBAL POWER
GRADUATE COLLOQUIUM
Poli 687A/2 A
Professor Schofield
Fall 2003
julian.schofield@sympatico.ca
Wednesday – 10:00-12:30, Class: TBA
Office: D-302
Office Hours: Monday 13:00-14:30 & Wednesday 12:30-14:00
http://artsandscience.concordia.ca/poli687a
Course Description
This seminar has tow objectives. The first is to provide a platform through which to
familiarize students with intermediate level statistical methods. These methods include
ordinary least-squares linear regression, weighted least-squares, logit regression, time
series, and partial r decomposition. The goal is to familiarize the students sufficient to
make them confident consumers of those very important techniques. It is also to
encourage the students to think methodologically. The second goal, and the issues around
which the statistical analyses will take place, is an examination and critique of coercive
forms of international statecraft. This seeks to familiarize students with an assortment of
policy alternatives available to government to influence other actors in the international
system. Its particular emphasis is on the application of coercive instruments in the context
of power politics. Many of the issues we will deal with are of current or recent interest to
policy decision-makers. The emphasis of the course will thus be on understanding and
applying many of these techniques to ongoing problems. I am interested in developing
your ability to reason critically about these issues, and to have an opportunity to practice
basic statistical analytical skills. Most of the assignments, therefore, are aimed at getting
you to solve puzzles or problems that are of interest to you.
This course will rely on the SPSS computer statistical application. For their final papers,
students will need to collect cross-sectional or time series data, with at least 100
observations per variable. You are urged to begin as soon as possible to look for data
sources in the library and elsewhere. To use the lab students will need to get
memberships at the lab.
Course material
including notes will
be
available at
the course website:
http://artsandscience.concordia.ca/poli687a
Required Texts (available at Concordia’s Downtown bookstore)
There is one required text for this course, as well as a reading package. Students will be
expected to complete the assigned readings prior to class each week, and be prepared to
discuss them in class.
Eastman’s Reader, POLI 687 2004 Edition (denoted as *).
Text
Course requirements
Six Statistics Assignments
Issue Estimates
In Class Participation
Paper Proposal
Course Paper
Paper Presentation
Paper Critiques
10%
10%
20%
10%
35%
5%
10%
(Each worth 5/3%)
Due each class Oct 28-Nov 12
Due October 8
Due December 3
Circulated Sign-up Sheet
Period of November 5-26
The statistic assignments are due two weeks after the associated lecture. The Issue
estimates are due the class in which a particular topic is discussed, and consist of
proposing a research design for the particular topic in question.
You will be required to write a major 20 to 30-page paper. You must get approval for
your topic by submitting a three-page proposal by October 22. The proposals may be
resubmitted for reevaluation to a higher grade an unlimited number of times before the
due date of the paper. In the remaining five-weeks of class, each student is to prepare and
deliver a 15-minute presentation before the class outlining the argument contained in
their paper, and then be prepared to answer questions from the class. A week before their
talk the presenting student must provide the other members of the class an early draft of
their paper for their review. Each student in the audience is expected to submit a
constructive critique of the presenter’s argument to the professor (which will be
forwarded to the presenter the subsequent week). Each of these critiques will be worth
10% subdivided by the total number of presenters.
The paper itself must be handed in during class on December 3, 2003. Late submissions
will be penalized. I am constrained by Departmental Policy not to permit incomplete
grades without serious cause.
Know that in the course of your paper research that many of the books are not at
Concordia, but they may be inter-library loaned with a delay of about three weeks, so
plan ahead. The Concordia inter-library loan website is at:
http://library.concordia.ca/flexmail/books.html
Department of Political Science Statement on Plagiarism
The Department has zero tolerance for plagiarism.
1. What is plagiarism? The University defines plagiarism as "The presentation of the work of another person as one's own or without
proper acknowledgment." (Concordia Undergraduate Calendar 2007-2008, page 66). Plagiarism is an academic offence governed by
the Code of Conduct (Academic). To find out more about how to avoid plagiarism, see the Concordia University Student Learning
Services guidelines at:
http://cdev.concordia.ca/CnD/studentlearn/Help/handouts/WritingHO/AvoidingPlagiarism.html
2. What are the consequences of getting caught? One of the following sanctions may be imposed:
(a) a written reprimand; (b) a piece of work be re-submitted; (c) specified community service at the University of up to ten (10) hours
per week for a specified period of time; (d) a failing grade for the piece of work in question or for the course, if applicable; (e) a
failing grade and ineligibility for a supplemental examination or any other evaluative exercise for the course; (f) the obligation to take
and pass courses of up to twenty-four (24) credit in addition to the total number of credits required for the student's program as
specified by the Academic Hearing Panel. If the student is registered as an Independent student, the sanction will be imposed only if
he or she applied and is accepted into a program; (g) suspension for a period not to exceed six (6) academic terms. Suspensions shall
entail the withdrawal of all University privileges, including the right to enter and be upon University premises; (h) expulsion from the
University. Expulsion entails the permanent termination of all University privileges (Undergraduate Calendar, p. 69.).
Complete regulations can be found on page 65 of the Undergraduate Calendar.
______________________________________________________________
See also the Political Science Department's Resources on Avoiding Plagiarism at:
http://politicalscience.concordia.ca/plagiarism/
Lecture Topics and Reading Assignments
1. Introduction and Review of Methodology – September 3.
Give out Hand Regression.
Give out sample for OLS, WLS, logit and time series.
2. Linear Regression Part I - OLS (in laboratory) – September 10.
“Chapter 18. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis,” SPSS for Windows – Base System
User’s Guide 6.0 (Chicago: SPSS, 1993), 311-366
“Chapter 19. Curve Estimation,” SPSS for Windows – Base System User’s Guide 6.0
(Chicago: SPSS, 1993), 367-376
3. Linear Regression Part II – WLS (in laboratory) – September 17.
“Chapter 8. Weighted Least Squares Aggression,” SPSS for Windows – Professional
Statistics 6.0 (Chicago: SPSS, 1993), 223-232
4. Limited D.V. Part III – Logit and Decomposition (in lab) – September 24.
“Chapter 2. Logistic Regression Analysis,” SPSS for Windows – Advanced Statistics 6.0
(Chicago: SPSS, 1993), 1-30
5. Regression Part IV – Time Series (in laboratory) – October 1.
“Chapter 9. Consumption of Spirits: Correlated Errors in Regression,” SPSS for Windows
– Trends 6.0 (Chicago: SPSS, 1993), 111-136
A. H. Studemund, “Durbin-Watson Table,” in Using Econometrics (New York: HarperCollins, 1970), 642-645
6. The Correlates of War – October 8.
Paper Proposal Due
7. The Deterrence/Compellence Debate – October 15.
Alexander L. George, and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy 2nd
Edition (Boulder: Westview Press, 1994), 267-293
Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, “Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think,
Therefore I Deter,” World Politics 41 (January 1989), 208-224
Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, “Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent
Variable,” World Politics 17, No.3 (April 1990), 336-369
Paul Huth and Bruce Russett, “Testing Deterrence Theory,” World Politics 17, No.4 (July
1990), 466-501
OLS Assignment Due.
8. The Sanctions Debate – October 22.
Robert A. Pape, “Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work,” International Security,
Vol.22, No.2 (Fall 1997), pp.90-136
Kimberly Ann Elliott, “The Sanctions Glass – Half Full or Completely Empty?”
International Security, Vol.23, No.1 (Summer 1998), pp.50-65
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Jeffrey Schott, and Kimberley Ann Elliott, Economic Sanctions
Reconsidered – 2nd Edition (Washington D.C.: Institute for International Economics,
1990).
David Baldwin, Economic Statecraft (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985), 206289
Lisa Martin, Coercive Cooperation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), 169203
Jonathan Kirshner, Currency and Coercion (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995),
45-114
9. The Bombing Debate – October 29.
Robert A. Pape, Bombing to Win - Air Power and Coercion in War (Ithaca: Cornell
University Press 1996), pp.12-38
Karl Mueller, “Strategies of Coercion – Denial, Punishment, and the Future of Air
Power,” Security Studies, Vol.7, No.3 (spring 1998), pp.182-228
John Warden III, “Success in Modern War,” Security Studies, Vol.7, No.2 (winter
1997/1998), 172-190.
10. Arms Control – November 5 (optional).
Vally Koubi, “International Tensions and Arms Control,” American Journal of Political
Science Vol.37, No.1 (February 1993), 148-164
Richard Betts, “Systems for Peace or Causes for War?” International Security Vol.17,
No.1 (Summer 1992), 5-43
Colin Gray, “Arms Control Does Not Control Arms,” Orbis 37, No.3 (Summer 1993),
333-348
11. The Foreign Aid Debate – November 12 (optional).
Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign Aid and American Purpose (American Enterprise Institute,
1988), 17-68
Robert Cassen and Associates, Does Air Work? (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994),
224-251
David Sogge, Give & Take (New York: Zed, 2002), 7-23, 212-226
12. Paper Presentations – November 19.
13. Paper Presentations – November 26.
Term paper due (December 3).