ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET – SEMESTER 2 2009
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Part A: STUDENT TO COMPLETE
Student Numbers
Office Use Only
Date Received:
Z3151874 (Htay), Z3154447 (Irving), Z3199218 (Phatak),
Z9700794 (Popovic), Z3151875 (Ritchie)
Title
First Name
Family Name
Ms
Ms
Mr
Ms
Mr
Suzie
Ying
Sundeep
Ramiza
Stuart
Htay
Irving
Phatak
Popovic
Ritchie
Class No.
Course
Assignment No.
Due Date
1664
GBAT9113: Strategic Mgt of Business & Technology
2
06/10/09
Class Facilitator
No. of Words
3,000 (REQ)
Ms Amanda McKernan
DECLARATION:
I declare that:
This assessment item is entirely my own original work, except where I have acknowledged use of source
material [such as books, journal articles, other published material, the Internet, and the work of other
student/s or any other person/s.
This assessment item has not been submitted for assessment for academic credit in this, or any other
course, at UNSW or elsewhere.
I understand that:
The assessor of this assessment item may, for the purpose of assessing this item, reproduce this
assessment item and provide a copy to another member of the University.
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Signed (if submitting electronically, type your full name in place of signing)
Date
Suzie Htay, Ying Irving, Sundeep Phatak, Ramiza Popovic, Stuart
Ritchie
06/10/09
Part B: CLASS FACILITATOR (OR MARKER) TO COMPLETE
Date Received
Grade
Date of Return to Student
Signed (Class Facilitator)
Date
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Report:
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank
Limited:
Strategic Analysis &
Recommendations
Assignment 2
Due: 06/10/2009
By:
Suzie Htay (z3151874)
Ying Irving (z3154447)
Sundeep Phatak (z3199218)
Ramiza Popovic (z9700794)
Stuart Ritchie (z3151875)
Class Facilitator's name: Ms Amanda McKernan
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents ................................................................................................................ 3
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 4
2. Strategic Situation ....................................................................................................... 5
3. Strategic Stakeholders ................................................................................................. 6
4. Strategic Situation – Future Scenarios ........................................................................ 7
5. Critique of Existing Strategy ...................................................................................... 8
6. Recommendations for Future Strategy ....................................................................... 9
7. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 10
Appendix A – PESTLE Analysis ...................................................................................... 12
Political ......................................................................................................................... 13
Economic ...................................................................................................................... 15
Socio-cultural ................................................................................................................ 17
Technological ................................................................................................................ 19
Legal ............................................................................................................................. 21
Environmental ............................................................................................................... 22
Appendix B – SWOT Analysis ......................................................................................... 23
Strengths ....................................................................................................................... 23
Weaknesses ................................................................................................................... 23
Opportunities................................................................................................................. 24
Threats........................................................................................................................... 26
Appendix C – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis .................................................................... 28
Appendix D – Stakeholder Analysis ................................................................................. 32
Appendix E – Future Scenarios - PESTLE ....................................................................... 33
Appendix F – Future Scenarios – Five Forces .................................................................. 34
Appendix G – Future Scenarios – Five C’s ...................................................................... 39
References ......................................................................................................................... 41
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1. Introduction
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [100 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
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2. Strategic Situation
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [750 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
An assessment of the current strategic situation (internal, and
external macro and industry environmental forces) impacting on the
organisation. This assessment should include not only a summary of
the forces impacting on the organisation, but conclusions about how
these forces are impacting on the existing strategies and strategic
options available to the organisation.

Summary of PESTLE (the full as Appendix)

Summary of SW OT (the full as Appendix)

Summary of Five Forces (the full as Appendix)

(include impacts)
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3. Strategic Stakeholders
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [350 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
An analysis of the strategic stakeholders and their impac t on the
organisation and its strategic options and actions.

Summary of Stakeholder Analysis (the full as Appendix)
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4. Strategic Situation – Future Scenarios
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [750 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
Scenarios for the organisation’s medium and longer -term future.
You will need to assess the forces in the environment, and forecast
(as a minimum) the optimistic, pessimistic and likely strategic
scenarios for the organisation in the industries in which it operates
or competes.
&
A description of the strategic fu ture that the organisation faces
(what is the most likely strategic future scenario) and what strategic
issues or problems the organisation will face in the medium and
longer term.

Pessimistic, Likely (FOCUS) and Optimistic scenarios for:
o PESTLE Summary (the full as Appendix)
o Five Forces Summary (the full as Appendix)
o Five Cs Summary (the full as Appendix)

Divergent Scenario.
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5. Critique of Existing Strategy
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [750 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
A critique of the organisation ’s existing strategies. This r equires an
assessment of what is good and what you suggest needs to change
based on your analysis of the environment and your understanding
of effective strategic management.
TBA.
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6. Recommendations for Future Strategy
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [500 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
Recommendations to (a) the board of directors regarding any
changes you would recommend to the organisation’s strategies
based on your analysis.
These recommendations should identify:

any changes that you suggest may be required

why they are needed

details of alternative strategies you would recommend as
being more effective

why your recommendations will be more effective

how the alternative strategies need to be implemented in order
to be successful.
Note: If you suggest that no changes to the organis ation ’s strategies
are required, you should identify:

why it is that you have concluded that the existing strategies
are the most suitable available

key issues to do with implementation of the existing strategies
in
order
to
ensure
that
the
existing
strat egies
will
successful.
TBA.
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be
7. Conclusion
XXXXXXXXXXXXXX [100 words] XXXXXXXXXXXXX
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Appendix A – PESTLE Analysis
PESTLE analysis covers the following external environmental factors – Political, Economic, Socio cultural, Technological, Legal and Envir onmental / Ecological – that affect an organisation and
influence its strategy (GBAT 9113, 2009, Unit 03, pp. 13). The following outlines these factors as they
relate to Bendigo Bank and assess their Timeframe (< 1 year, 1 -3 years or > 3 years), Impact
(Positive, Negative or Unclear) and Relative Importance (Critical, Important, Unimportant or Unclear)
Category
Factors
Implications
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
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Impact
Importance
Category
Political
Factors
Implications
The Australian
Even among the Big 4 banks, there’s a
Government is
huge gap in terms of market share
continuing to support its
between the top 2, Commonwealth (25%)
Four Pillars policy, which
and Westpac (19%) and the bottom two,
prevents the Big 4 banks
NAB and ANZ (11% each). The Four
– Commonwealth,
Pillars policy prevents NAB and ANZ from
Westpac, ANZ and NAB
merging with one another and providing
– from merging with or
any real challenge to the top 2 banks. If
acquiring one another.
they cannot get the same economies of
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
1-3 years
Unknown
Important
scale that the top 2 banks have access
to, they might look at the other main
banking model – locally focused, building
on community relationships – which is the
model BEN has adopted (Banking Market opinion swells against Canberra's
four pillars policy, 2008 ). This might
potentially open BEN to a takeover bid.
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Category
Political
Factors
Implications
Rudd Government’s
This initiative will potentially benefit BEN
Innovation Agenda
in two ways:
(Powering Ideas, 2009,

business models to support and grow
includes initiatives such
its customer base.

Timeframe
Impact
Importance
>3 years
Positive
Important
Allow BEN to develop new, innovative
pp. 12-13) which
as Enterprise Connect
Impact and Importance
Fund and invest in innovation via its
and a new R&D Tax
customer base, leading to new
Credit to support
revenue channels.
innovative Australian
businesses.
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Category
Economic
Factors
Implications
The Australian economy
Adelaide and Bendigo Bank – BEN- has
has remained resilient to
suffered a 51% decrease in profit after tax
the Global Financial
in FY09 (Bendigo and Adelaide Bank FY
Crisis and is expected to
2009, 2009, pp. 10). This is significantly
recover at a faster rate
higher than the 14% profit decrease
in FY10 compared to the
suffered by the Big 4 banks (Financial
other leading world
Stability Review, 2009, pp. 17). BEN will
economies. Both the
have to formulate innovative strategies to
financial sector as well
capitalise on the improving economic
as the non-financial (eg.
conditions in both the financial and non-
Household) sectors are
financial sectors and improve its
showing signs of
profitability and attractiveness to its
improvement over the
shareholders.
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
1-3 years
Positive
Critical
past 2 months (Financial
Stability Review, 2009,
pp. 17-18).
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Category
Factors
Implications
Financial analysts
As at June 2009, BEN had provisioned
expect a further increase
expenses equivalent to 0.51% of its
in FY10 provisioning
assets, against bad debts (Bendigo and
expenses against bad
Adelaide Bank FY 2009, 2009, pp. 18).
debts, peaking at 0.6%
An expected increase in provisioning
of average assets,
expenses exposes BEN to a further
before improving in
decrease in profitability in FY10, given
FY11 (Financial Stability
that this was a major contributor to
Review, 2009, pp. 19).
decreased profits in FY09 (Regional
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
< 1 year
Negative
Critical
banks, credit unions and building
societies 2009 – UPDATE, 2009, pp.4).
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Category
Sociocultural
Factors
Implications
Australia’s population is
BEN’s Retirement Village and Aged Care
ageing and the
unit specialises in lending to the aged-
percentage of people
care industry (Adelaide Bank: Aged Care
aged 85 and over is
2008). With the ageing-population market
expected to increase
set to expand, BEN is well poised to
from 1.5%of the total
increase its level of funding to and
population in 2007 to
consequently, return on investment from
around 7% in 2056
this sector.
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
> 3 years
Positive
Important
(“Population Projections,
Australia, 2006 to 2101”,
2009).
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Category
Factors
Implications
Socio-
People aged 18-24
BEN’s key differentiator is based on the
cultural
years, generally referred
long-term relationships it strives to build
to Gen Y, are less likely
with the communities it operates in
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
> 3 years
Negative
Important
to be actively engaged in (Bendigo Bank website, 2009). With Gen
their communities than
Y increasingly entering the workforce and
those in older age
being potential customers of BEN, their
groups. Only 10% of
lack of community involvement might
people in this age group
dilute BEN’s value proposition (ABS
took part in community
Social 2009).
activities as against 89%
that went out to a café,
bar or restaurant
(Australian Social
Trends – 2006, 2009).
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Category
Technologi
cal
Factors
Implications
CSIRO has developed a
BEN is primarily a regional bank and
portable device known
many of its retail customers are spread
as Trust Extension
over large geographical areas. TED will
Device (TED) that will
allow BEN’s Community Bank employees
allow anyone to conduct
and members to access services and
business across the
financial information from their personal
internet, on any
computers, within branches and from the
computer, even in an
field, eliminating the need to set up
internet cafe, in a secure
expensive technology infrastructure.
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
1-3 years
Positive
Important
manner (CSIRO
website, 2009).
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Category
Factors
Implications
Technologic
Rudd Government’s
This initiative will deliver superfast
al
Regional Backbone
broadband to Australians in several
Blackspots Program, as
regional areas, potentially allowing BEN’s
part of the National
traditional retail customer base to access
Broadband Network
a wider range of online services. This can
aims to deliver high-
be either a positive or a negative factor
speed internet access to
for BEN:
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
> 3 years
Unknown
Important
regional Australia
(Department of
Positive if BEN can provide a suite of
Broadband,
online banking services to its customers,
Communications and the to complement its network of regional
Digital Economy
branches.
website, 2009).
Negative if other banks, regional or
otherwise, can utilise the reach of
broadband internet to erode BEN’s
customer base even in areas where they
don’t have as large a physical presence
as BEN.
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Category
Legal
Factors
Implications
APRA (Australian
With Internet security particularly with
Prudential Regulation
respect to Online banking coming under
Authority) has published
increasing scrutiny, BEN stands to gain a
a draft practice guide on
competitive advantage by being an early
Management of IT
adopter of the regulation.
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
< 1 year
Positive
Important
Security Risk (PPG 234
– Management of IT
Security Risk, 2009).
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Category
Environme
ntal
Factors
Implications
Global warming and
BEN’s Community Banking model has a
climate change is
large rural customer base that is directly
severely threatening the
under threat from the effects of climate
level of agricultural
change. BEN would need to create
Impact and Importance
Timeframe
Impact
Importance
> 3 years
Negative
Critical
production and livestock- sustainable products to encourage its
sustaining capacity in
rural customers to adopt green measures.
Australia (Climate
This would help rural communities
Change – Potential
maintain and / or increase their level of
Impacts and Costs,
productivity while at the same time
2009, pp.2-3).
protecting BEN’s customer and capital
base.
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Appendix B – SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Strong Brand: Neilson net promoter score.
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank received the highest customer satisfaction
scores – at 76 per cent for 2009 well ahead of the big four banks.
They
are
the
only
bank
with
positive
net
promoter
scores
(promoters, who give ratings of nine or 10, m inus demoters, who
give scores of one to six). (The sheet 2009)
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s superior service and investment in
communities
has
resulted
in
a
brand
that
is
attracting
more
customers with relatively low acquisition costs. According to Merrill
Lynch it is the most favored bank among customers looking to
switch. (Net promoter 2006)
Customer Loyalty
The purpose and community commitment of Bendigo & Adelaide
Bank along with its establishment over 150 years ago strengthens
its relationship with its customers and the commitment customers
have to the bank. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank defines, design, co create and deliver value, but also give the customer what they want,
and thereby fosters loyalty by virtue of a ‘connect and collaborate’
strategy. (Byrne 2005) From all of this the key strength that defines
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank are their loyal customers.
Weaknesses
Limited suppl y of funds and capital
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank have yet to be accredited under Basel II
and as a result face higher interest charges when raising capital
(Kohler 2009). Some of their competitors like the big four banks who
have accreditation have a clear competitive advantage through
lower interest rates and avail ability in their capital rising (Kohler
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2009). Another weakness fo r the bank is the margin squeeze they
face with the higher cost of funding which has places pressure on
their ability to pass on interest rates cuts which their competitors
are more able too (Kohler 2009) .
Limited Lending Diversification
Heavy exposure to bad debts in 2009 FY was primarily through their
business lending area. These bad debts have impacted the banks
profit which was down 24% (KPMG 2009). In comparison CBA which
have a more diversified lending book had far fewer bad debts in
percentage term s with their profit only down 7% (CBA 2009).
Exposure to Margin Lending Products
In 2008 the banks margin lending product reduced in value by 25
per cent. This offset its growth in their other lending portfolios
(KPMG 2009). The weakness is the banks hig h business exposure to
their margin lending product, which is so closely linked & affected by
market volatility. The latest data from the Reserve Bank shows that
there was a substantial drop in margin lending as clients shy away
and clear out debt
(Mace 2009). This was in major part to the
Global Financial Crisis and the drop in the Australian and global
stock exchanges.
Opportunities
National Broadband Netw ork
A major opportunity for the bank is the National Broadband Network
which the government is imp lementing. This NBN will ensure rural
and remote areas of Australia have access to the best available
broadband services this new infrastructure. (Tindal 2008) W ith
technology available regional businesses can benefit from improved
access to online service s, including finance and banking, research
and information. (Conroy, 2009) Their is an opportunity for the bank
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to become a more mobile bank. The technology can allow their
mortgage brokers to visit clients without clients living their own
house. National Bank has proven the opportunity for Mobile Bankers
having tested the wireless technology for about eight months,
anticipates that about 80 per cent of its mobile bankers will have
access to the system by the end of the year. (Mill 2009)
Aging population
Aging
population
is
a
significant
and
growing
part
of
local
communities (Australian Local Government 2005) and Australia’s
Retirement-age population is expected to almost double by 2031.
This will consist in large by the baby boomers. This generation who
have acquired assets through their lives want something a little
smaller than their current home, but with servi ces and lifestyle built
into it (Prime Trust 2009). The bank has an opportunity to tap into
this market and use their community brand to sell to t his group of
clients.
Greater
value
placed
on
Community
and
Corporate
Social
Responsibility
Consumers today are more likely to make decisions based on what
they perceive to be the values of the company. Many people prefer
to buy brands that they believe are contributing to society rather
than damaging it. (Haley J, 2007) As Bendigo and Adelaide has
always been focused on community the opportunity is to focus on
promoting that fact.
New green technologies.
W ith potential threats like El Nino and global w arming there is also a
opportunity around new greener technologies. By improving the
environment it improves on -farm sustainability. (Green Skills 2009)
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and by investing into this greener technology it has the potential to
create rural wealth and allow far mers to repair their farms back to
sustainable productive use. (Nimbing Good Times 2005). The flow
on affect will be farmers having more wealth, creating business
opportunities for Bendigo and Adelaide Bank.
Threats
El Nino
El Nino typically can brings dr ier conditions to Australia, and
farmers could see much less rainfall (Efarming 2009) In 2005 the El
Nino hit most of Rural Australia the ABA has noted that a significant
number of farmer are facing crop failure, putting pressure on
extended finances. (ABA 2005) These farmers make up a good
percentage of the banks customer base and with the potential El
Nino to hit Australia again, banks will have to provide special
consideration and understanding during this difficult period. (ABA
2005)
Carbon Trading
Climate change represents the greatest environmental, economic,
social and political challenge facing Australia to transition to a lo w
carbon global economy. (CFMEU 2009) It is estimated in the
Government’s Carbon Green Paper that agriculture contributes
around 16 per cent of Australia’s emissions ( ABC Rural 2009) and
as a result many rural businesses could be affected by increased
costs and business processes due to Carbon Pollution Reduction
Scheme (CPRS). (Victorian Farmers Federation 2008). W ith many of
these clients already under pressure, we could see more rural
business folding or reducing revenue and as a result may see less
deposits and an increase in bad debts to Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.
Increased Government Regulation
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Following the GFC, there cou ld be an increase in government
intervention through new regulation in the banking industry. Some of
the examples which have affected banks recently are Basel II & the
Government guarantee (Grattan 2008) on retail and wholesale
deposits. Increased regulati ons can often result in more costs for
banks to incur to comply and also in some instances reduce smaller
banks like Bendigo & Adelaide banks competitiveness.
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Appendix C – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
The Bendigo and Adelaide bank external environment a nalyses will
focus on porter’s Five Forces model to analyse banking industry
profitability.
powers
of
The Porter’s five forces concentrate on bargaining
buyers,
bargaining
power
of
suppliers,
threat
of
substitute, potential for new entrants and rivalry am ong competitors.
Bargaining Power of Buyers
Bargaining power of buyers can have significant influence on
product price.
Bendigo and
Adelaide buyers are individual
customer, business and institutional buyers.
Individual custome r
and businesses have limi ted bargaining power to influence financial
product price change as the financial product price across the
banking industry
are more and less the same giving the banks
power to dictate the price. Institutional buyers of financial product s
on the other hand, such as mortgage based derivatives could have
some power to influence the price of portfolio based products due to
competition between banks and financial institutions.
Therefore
strategy for Bendigo and Adelaide bank is to concentrate on
eliminating institutional buyers offering financial products more
attractive for individual buyers to control
or eliminate bargaining
power of buyers.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Bendigo and Adelaide product is money therefore major Bank
suppliers are Reserve ban k of Australia (RBA) , the Interbank
Lending market which are the institution for banks to lend money to
each other, and Customers who deposits money to bank to invest, or
borrowers of product for mortgage derivatives. Bargaining power of
suppliers in some industries can take advantage of bargaining power
to dictate prices. However the bargaining power of suppliers in the
banking industry in Australia is low due to the roughly same rates
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offered by suppliers to all banks in Australia.
Based on limited
bargaining power of banking industry suppliers strategy for Bendigo
and Adelaide bank is to focus on customer satisfaction with their
services to maintain its competitive advantage.
Threat of Substitute
As the product of the Bendigo and Adelaide bank is mo ney, anything
that generates a return would be a substitute. Financial institutions
such as Esanda,
Capital Finance and Toyota
offering attractive
products including business lending, fleet leasing and persona l
lending
could take away
rural and regi onal customers of the
Bendigo and Adelaide bank.
Furthermore, mortgage lenders with
lower rates, or high interest rate savings accounts with no fees such
as ANZ V2 Plus ,and mobile banking
are substitute products that
could take away company’s market s hare.
In addition, institutional
investors who invest money into companies such as pension and
super funds, hedge funds and insurance companies could invest in
the companies currently using Bendigo and Adelaide bank services.
However, the threat of subs titutes is low as loyalty and trust of the
Bendigo
and
Adelaide
bank
customers
competitive advantage over substitutes.
and
Adelaide
bank is to
maintain
is
the
bank’s
major
The strategy for Bendigo
good
relationship
with
the
customers and continue support to regional areas to eliminate threat
of substitute.
Potential for New Entrants
Potential new entrants are the companies that have resources to
enter the industry and take market share. The new entrants to the
bank industry in Australia could be local an d international banks and
financial institutions. Major threat to Bendigo and Adelaide bank are
financial
institutions
that
offer
attractive
entering the market such as ING Direct
online
only
banking
in the past as they could
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take
over
some
of
Bendigo
and
Adelaide
Government regulation such as Bank Act
banking industry from new entrants.
bank
customers.
can protect Australian
Competitive advantage of
Bendigo and Adelaide bank is community banking, community
involvement, and goodwill which the bank g ained over the years and
from community banking perspective it could be hard for ne w
entrants to take away companies market share.
Strategic problem
of new entrants for Bendigo and Adelaide bank is to focus on the
market and improve services to customers.
Rivalry among Competitors
The
Bendigo
and
Adelaide
bank
operate
in
an
Australian
environment where it is a very strong rivalry and competition among
large banking industry and financial institutions. Major competitors
are other regional banks such as Ban k of Queensland, Suncorp and
four big banks Commonwealth, ANZ, W estpac and National bank
with strong market share.
Competitive advantage of BEN is
specialisation in community banking which are the key factors for
competitive success of Bendigo. Differe ntiation
of products due to
merge with Adelaide bank gives them competitive strength.
The
focus of Bendigo and Adelaide bank is a regional niche market non
metropolitan
market.
Based
branches locations in NSW
on
Bendigo
and
Adelaide
bank
conclusion is that the company
strategy is to open new branches in regional area of NSW rather
than CBD for example, reason being to avoid rivalry with big banks
and serve niche market.
One of the Bendigo and Adelaide bank
branches is located in Burwood, NSW
wher e in 2004 the 14.3 per
cent of population is aged 65+ years and expectation is by 2020 ,
The other branch is locate in Clovelly, NSW where
14 per cent of
population is aged 60+ . This indicate that the company strategy is
to target area with aging popu lation , demographics, who prefer in
branch
banking rather than technology enhanced way of banking.
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Therefore major competitors of Bendigo and Adelaide bank are other
regional banks who traget the same market.
The strategy for the
Bendigo and Adelaide bank to gain competitive advantage among
competitors is to differentiate and offer innovate services and
products.
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Appendix D – Stakeholder Analysis
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
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Appendix E – Future Scenarios - PESTLE
Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
Political
Environment
Economic
Environment
Socio-Cultural
Environment
Technology
Environment
Legal & Regulatory
Environment
Natural
Environment
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Appendix F – Future Scenarios – Five Forces
Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
Bargaining Power
Disruptive technologies
Bargaining power of retail
Bargaining power of
of Buyers
such as online reverse
customers is likely to
institutional buyers (ie. for
auctions (Ginovsky 2009)
remain low given the fixed
mortgage -based products
may allow individual retail
price (interest) nature of
may reduce) with possible
customers the ability to
the product (Thompson et
increased Government
barter at point of sale thus
al. 2009).
regulation due to th e GFC
increasing their bargaining
(APRA 2009) limiting the
power.
attractiveness of
alternative derivatives.
Bargaining Power
Bargaining power of
Bargaining power of
Bargaining Power of
of Suppliers
suppliers may increase
suppliers is likely to remain
suppliers may decrease
as the bank moves
low with funding (a bank’s
further with possible
further into less price
raw material) predominantly
increased Government
regulated markets such
being sourced from the
regulation due to the GFC
as telecommunications
Reserve Bank (with fixed
(APRA 2009) further
(Bendigo Telco 2009).
return expectations), from a
limiting negotiable
heavily regulated inter -
options.
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Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
bank lending market (Arner
2008) and retail cons umers
with limited bargaining
power (see above).
Threat of
A continued rise in
W ith the Australian real
If unemployment rates
Substitute
unemployment rates
estate market in recovery
were to decrease (ABS
(ABS Labour 2009) and
(REIA 2009) and continued
Labour 2009), interest
increases in Interest
low interest rates (RBA
rates stayed low (RBA
rate (RBA 2009) could
2009), investors may likely
2009) and the Government
see more people opting
be enticed back from
continued to extend the
to remain in or enter
substitute investments (ie
First Home Buyer Grant
the substitute rental
shares) to property (and
Scheme (OSR 2009), then
market.
thus increasing mortgage
mortgage volumes would
The threat of substitute
volumes) although the
likely rise as investors
investment options to
housing shortage (Elliot
move from substitute
mortgage backed
2009) and increasing
investments such as
derivatives for
unemployment rates (ABS
shares and new home
institutional invest ors
Labour 2009) may leave
owners leave the
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Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
may increase as
little choice for many
substitute rental market.
confidence levels drop
consumers to remain in or
post GFC (Arner 2008).
enter the rental (substitute)
An early removal of the
market.
Government Bank
Guarantee Scheme
(Government 2008)
could also see
substitutes becoming
more attractive.
Threat of New
Australia could see a
The threat of new entrants
W ith international
Entrants.
continued growth in
into the Australian banking
pressure to further tighten
new online banking
market is likely to remain
banking regulation (BBC
entrants such as ING
fairly low with the
2009) Austral ia may need
Direct as the National
increased risk due to the
to make regulatory
Broadband Network
rise of online banking
changes that reduce the
(NBN 2009) enables
offerings (eg. ING Direct)
attractiveness of the
new service offerings.
and the attractive relative
market due to higher
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Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
Also, alternate banking
stability of the Australian
compliance and
options, such as
economy (Uren 2009 ) being
governance costs.
Islamic Banking (Mirza
offset by the Australian
2003), may see more
Government’s continued
competitors enter the
support of the Four Pillars
mainstream banking
Policy (RBA 2009) and
market.
strong regulatory
requirements of the Bank
Act 1959 (ComLaw 2009)
Rivalry amongst
Rivalry could increase
Levels of rivalry in the
The big four banks could
competitors
in the Australian
Australian banking market
increasingly focus on
banking market if
will likely remain high with
online retail and business
services are
the federal Government
investment services
increasingly provided
continuing to support
leaving a growing
online and are less
competition via the Four
Community Banking niche
differentiated
Pillars policy (RBA 2009)
for BEN to compete in.
(Thompson et al. 2009,
and banking products are
The Australian
p.64). Also, a
increasingly provided
government could also
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Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
relaxation in the Four
online and are less
enshrine the Four Pillars
Pillars policy (RBA
differentiated (Thompson et
policy in legislation
2009) could see large
al. 2009, p.64).
(Lekakis 2009) and
competitors drive the
include additional
industry (Thompson et
protections for the next
al. 2009, p.65)
tier.
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Appendix G – Future Scenarios – Five C’s
Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
Strategies and
actions of key
Competitors
Capabilities,
resources,
strength and,
weaknesses and
actions of
Company
Actions, support
and strategies of
key Collaborators
Behaviours, wants
and needs of
Customers or
customer groups in
our existing
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Forecast
Pessimistic
Likely
Optimistic
markets
Behaviours, wants
and needs of
Customers or
customer groups in
our markets we
don’t currently
target
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