Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Andreas Weigend (www.weigend.com)
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
March 19, 2009
Class 1: (Part 1 of 2)
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Andreas:
Welcome to our first class of Marketing 2.x. As you know, last year we called this class
Marketing in Web 2.0. People asked me what it meant, marketing in web 2.0. I said I
didn’t know. [0:00:16.4 unclear name] picked that title. I asked [0:00:18.6 Florian?] and
he said, “I don’t know, I thought you picked that title.”
This year we are calling it Marketing 2.x. What that reflects is that we are living in a
time where the notion of marketing is changing as we speak. For instance, do you
know what version Google is running by serving your ads? Of course not. Do you even
know what version Amazon.com is running? Of course not. I picked the 2.x to show us
the flux and the new stuff we are actually putting together for this half semester.
Maybe I should a little bit with my own background. I was born in Germany, as you can
easily hear. I came here to attend graduate school. I studied physics. Actually, the
question was whether I wanted to go to Berkeley or Stanford for my PhD. I came to
Berkeley first, to check out the department. That day, in 1986, the Americans invaded
some funny country somewhere, and all the students were watching television. There
was like an earthquake thingy; they all went under the table. I thought, “That is too weird
for me.” I don’t want to be in a lab where everybody is watching tele all the time and then
they randomly go under tables, weird.
I ended up at Stanford, where I guess I sort of never really left. I did leave for some time.
I was Assistant Professor in Computer Science, in Cognitive Science in the University of
Colorado at Boulder. Then, I was Associate Professor at New York University’s Stern
School of Business. You might wonder how a guy that did physics for his PhD did and
then he does cognitive science and computer science, as assistant professor, and then
information systems and stats as associate professor; Now I teach statistics at Stanford,
and here I teach marketing. What’s up with that? What do you think?
What all these things have in common is they’re about data. If you think about me, just
think about somebody who just loves data and loves to figure out what can be done with
data.
Let me give you some examples. In physics, I was an experimental physicist, the person
who runs experiments at LBL, or at Stanford at [0:02:40.8 Slack]. We have certain ideas
of how the world might be. Then, we ask questions. A German philosopher called
Heiger said, “The scientists ask questions, and nature only answers with yes or with no.”
0:02:56.4
That is a pretty interesting statement. If you take this to what Google and Amazon are
doing with these so-called A/B tests, where they try to compare different ways of doing
marketing in parallel, it’s the same thing. We don’t expect rich answers. We just expect
that we have a sort of metrics, set of measures, in which we know how well our campaign
is doing and then we try to figure out which one is better.
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
That was physics. Then, computer science in the early 1990’s, machine learning started.
Machine learning means we actually have models that learn from data. There is a big
shift in machinery and statistics, economics and many areas, including marketing. It
used to be very heavy on models and poor on data.
People didn’t have rich data. It was very difficult to collect stuff. In the 1970’s there was
very little known about people. We didn’t have mobile phones. Most of you weren’t born.
Those of us who were born didn’t have mobile phones. There was very little. For
instance, when you bought a ticket for the train, there was no association with you. If
they were lucky, they knew how many tickets they sold but they had no idea what specific
train you would be on, let alone who you were on that train, let alone that it’s the same
you on that train as on the evening train. Persistent identity basically didn’t exist. It’s
pretty amazing, looking back.
In economics in those days, economists had an almost intimate relationship with each
data point. If you get one data point per quarter, you better really develop some
relationship with it. This is opposed to the big breakthrough on Wall Street in the early
1990’s. People were having better data. Dee Shaw, for instance, made a lot of money
because he focused on creating high frequency data where he just tried to understand,
what not on the time scale of months, but on the time scale of seconds, is the behavior of
people, and the response of the market to people’s behavior.
Then, computer science developed all kinds of models. I did my PhD in something called
neural networks. Neural networks are a wonderful example of something that has very
weak assumptions. Basically I just moved functions you can super-impose. But, they
need a lot of data. They are very data hungry, like I am. The more data you feed them,
the better they become. It’s a big shift in paradigm from having assumptions on how the
world ought to be to just looking at how the world is. That is the big shift which has
occurred in marketing.
0:05:58.8
We had all kinds of hypotheses. Some of them were absurd. For instance, have you
heard the story that if you show an ad you better show it six times because that’s the
optimal number of showing it? You’re nodding. Where did you hear that?
Male :
[0:06:11.5 unclear]
Andreas:
Are they still around? Of course they are still around. It’s a typical question; when you
hear these myths, how many people still believe in them and how are they doing? I’m
actually running an experiment of Facebook where we are going to test that from showing
one person six different ads versus showing them the same ad six times.
I’m also talking with another company in San Francisco, [0:06:38.6 VioClick] where we
are talking about looking at the existing data, trying to debunk that myth. Probably some
guy, between his second cup of coffee and lunch one day just made it up. Generations
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
and generations of MBA students deeply believe in it. That’s just one example of rather
than having hypotheses of how the world could be and testing them, we can just look at
how it is.
After NYU, information systems and the web came into being. I started a company. That
company was called MoodLogic. MoodLogic, although it was started in the late 1990’s,
was a true web 2.0 company in the sense that it created metadata about music.
Think about Pandora and other things that we have right now. I was actually at the
founding meeting for Pandora, but I decided to do my own thing. We sold MoodLogic to
AllMediaGuide, and the AllMediaGuide was sold to Microvision. In the first two and a half
years, without essentially paying anybody, we had one billion explicit ratings of songs.
We came up with a space of thirty-five attributes and then we asked people, “Why don’t
you tell us how you feel the quality of voice is,” and so on.
My question to you is why would anybody do that; sit down, listen to a song, and then
decide “I think that’s an upbeat song”? Why would anybody do that? Why do people do
things in web 2.0?
Female 1:
I think people like being recognized in the community and like being a trusted advisor to
other friends, if they consider themselves an expert in a certain field.
0:08:33.9
Andreas:
That is a good example for the modern web 2.0 companies like Yelp.com, where you
really get recognized by the community as a top Yelper and the first person to discover a
certain restaurant. One thing you will discover again and again in class is that
giving people self-metrics, knowing how you are doing, is actually an important
driver to getting people to do things for the community.
Male 1:
I would only contribute if there were something in it for me.
Andreas:
Ah, so self-benefit. That is actually a deeper driver, I think, than the community
benefit. You could always assume that while with the community benefit you get laid, or
whatever you interests are, if people know you’re a good guy who contributes to the
community.
Indeed, for MoodLogic, it was self-benefit. In those days, the Napster days, not
everything you had in your computer was entirely legal, if you know what I mean. I’m
sure it’s totally different for you now, but in case you don’t know; mp3 files you could just
grab from anywhere. We wouldn’t have gotten a billion ratings of people had,
somewhere on the horizon, there been the specter of they might end up in prison if they
helped us out.
We gave them a pseudonym, whatever they wanted to have. We never wanted to know
anything about them. It didn’t really help for getting recognized by the community. But, it
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
helped them big time for their own music listening. Why? Once you had actually
characterized the songs you were interested in, you were able to find more similar songs.
There is another dimension I want to bring up here; how do we get people to not
only contribute, but to contribute truthfully, to really tell us how they feel about
stuff? When I get a survey by United Airlines – are they still in business? Yes – it’s
printed on the boarding pass, “Go to ualsurvey.com”. I go there fresh, wanting to help
them out. I see here; what is my mileage plus number – 000227149000. “What is your
name?” You should know my name if I just gave you the number. “Which flight were you
on?” Well, you should know this because I can only do it in three days. “Please enter
your ticket number.” Okay, I’m doing one more thing. And then they want to know more
and more stuff. You realize you are not understood and it’s not profiting you at all. Why
tell them honestly that the food sucked? It wouldn’t make a difference.
On the other hand, another example is where does Zagat come out on that line On the
one hand, with MoodLogic, you honestly say how things are. That way, the more honest
you are the better songs you get in the vicinity of what you’re interested in versus
ualsurvey.com, which nobody probably ever takes very seriously. Where would Zagat,
the company that prints those guides for restaurants come out on that scale?
0:11:53.1
Katie:
People probably prefer to exaggerate so they can get their quickie comment in the guide.
Andreas:
If you would say your names, I actually have a chance of learning names. You may not
know each other so you may have a chance of learning names. Katie makes a point that
for the self-esteem and being public about stuff – if you have your comment you can tell
your date that evening, “This is actually my comment that said good restaurant.”
Jeff:
To that point, I trust Zagat because they have created a certain brand identity with me.
With all due respect to your project, why would I ever trust MoodLogic and its crowd
sourcing of opinions versus something like a genome project in Pandora that is based on
more statistically solid data, out of some experts, or something?
Andreas:
That is a good question. Let’s first actually answer the Zagat question and then I’ll go to
your question. Where does Zagat, on the way of creating an incentive for people to
truthfully talk about restaurants come out? They don’t do it right. The recommendations
you get if you go online don’t depend on what you actually like. If you love to hang out in
some really great food, Thai restaurant, the Tenderloin, which at most resembles the
Greyhound Station in Chicago. You may not care all that much for the décor, but you do
care for the food. If you say, “That place rocks,” then they should show you similar
places to that one. They should market to you. You just revealed something about
yourself.
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
If you say, “I love the food at Chez Panis, and I’m not price sensitive, and they tend to
show you more restaurants like this and you never go there, then maybe there is some
social desirability bias that makes you say this.
I think the difference between MoodLogic and Zagat is that Zagat’s answers – what
Zagat gives back to you does not depend on your answers. MoodLogic or other
systems that actually really try to get towards truthful answers from people, the
answer the system gives you in response does depend on what you’re interested
in.
About Pandora, in the olden days it was called Savage Beast, and MoodLogic and other
companies; it’s a problem we have thought very deeply through, whether you should pay
people for a staff or have people do stuff out of their own interests.
0:15:00.5
I think there are a few lessons we have learned in the last ten years. One of them
is if you pay people, guess what; you get people who want to get paid. There was
one company I worked with. It turned out that once they got audited and tried to figure
out how many people they actually have from the million people who filled out surveys, it
was less than one hundred thousand. People just created new identities. There might
be a limit on how many times you can contribute to a certain survey. No problem; email
addresses are cheap and people create more and more. As a result, data quality from
those “experts” is often not as good as if you create self-interest for people so that what
they get in return depends on what they give.
Tim [0:15:52.3 unclear] and I are friends, so I’m not putting Pandora down, in any way. I
just want to make sure that the difference here is if you do surveys for the sake of
survey, you tend to not get as good people as when something depends on the
answer they give.
Sweepstakes are weak incentivizers. Now, in this data rich world, you want to figure out
how your life can be better by you giving honest data. Let’s take Facebook; you know
Marissa Mayer. Marissa Mayer is a VP at Google. She went to Stanford. About three
years ago, at the Stanford reunion, in October, she decided for her Facebook profile that
she would “take whatever she can get”. Whatever that means.
[0:16:47.4 unclear] picked that up and posted it on [0:16:50.6 unclear]. “Hey, Marissa is
going to take whatever she can get.” Three weeks later, I saw her at a conference with
her new found boyfriend. Sometimes, by being honest about something, by telling
the world what you are actually interested in, you might actually get it. If she had
said other things then it might not have been as clear.
This is a good example of how things that used to be more private are moving into the
public sphere. Twitter is another example. Matches can be made much more efficiently
than we ever would have thought about beforehand.
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Are there any other questions? Here we just had the story about MoodLogic – give data
to get data is the marketing play there.
0:17:42.2
Norberto:
I think that these people who are giving the right data or truthful data or not based on the
variance. If two people have had three similar sets of data and then one person deviates
from that data, there is something wrong there. Or, it might a week signal but you might
want to explore. That shouldn’t happen.
Andreas:
Yes, true but the driver of giving something to people that actually makes their
lives better is much stronger than doing statistical analysis after the fact, trying to
figure out what might have happened there.
Also, a company I work with is called Skout.com. It’s a company in San Francisco that
combines the physical with the digital. It’s a dating company. If you have an iPhone, you
can download the Skout app. It knows where you are and knows who is in the vicinity.
Last week, they won first prize at the Demo Conference, so they became the Demo-god,
as it’s called. They started their wonderful presentation, the CEO and their technologist,
by asking the audience, “Who of you have ever been rejected?” Of course, nobody at a
conference with VCs has ever been rejected.
Then they said, “Think about your best friend. Who of your best friends have ever been
rejected?” Everybody laughed and their hands went up. Sometimes, there is this social
desirability bias that you don’t want to respond in a certain way. When we did marketing
surveys, we found out that by not asking people “How do you feel about it,” but “How do
you think others feel about it” we actually managed to bring the variance in.
Norberto:
I remember Amazon and other companies. Even when you have a certain number of
sales, and then you buy something for your mother or grandmother, it has nothing to do
with the rest of the sales; that data should be disregarded. It’s the same way with the
normal statistical experience.
Andreas:
Good, let’s take this point. It’s a point I hear many times. At Amazon.com, of course, it’s
people bought x also bought y. What about you buying a pair of socks for your
grandmother who lives in Alaska and has cold feet in the winter, whereas you live in
California?
One answer is a statistical answer that from guys living in California or South America or
wherever you are from; very few actually have grandmothers in Alaska who need warm
socks in the winter. From a statistical perspective, that might just simply drop out. On
the other hand, we all might as well ask.
0:20:46.1
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
The attempt of Amazon.com of putting in this little button, “Is this a gift for somebody”
was their attempt to figure out whether something was bought for yourself and should be
counted toward your normal consideration set or whether it was bought for somebody
else and should be discounted.
Yes, statistics is an answer but statistics is a weak answer. The strong answer is
to build the world so people actually share the data with you that they would
benefit from down the road. If you know that the socks for your grandma are not going
to be counted toward your next recommendation, you will probably say, “Don’t worry
about those socks. I’m more interested in books.”
Female 2:
I have to admit, I haven’t been to Amazon in a while, looking at their recommendations. I
bought a couple of text books on Amazon. I couldn’t for the life of me get these books on
compilers and things like that to get out of my recommendations. It wasn’t a gift. I think
another important thing is not only to limit the question you’re asking, “Is this is
gift,” but allowing the consumer to give feedback as to whether they want it to be
part of their recommendation, even outside of something …
Andreas:
Amazon.com has that ability. You can rate every single item, whether you want it part of
your consideration set or not. The problem is there is this tradeoff between ease of
use and power. Yes, there are many powerful features hidden a couple of layers below
the surface, but nobody uses them. Let me just ask you; who of you has used advanced
search at Google in the last month?
It’s about a quarter of the class, a quarter to a third of the class. We all know it exists,
right? We are too lazy. Maybe I’m just too lazy. Udi Manber, who used to be the Chief
Scientist at Yahoo, he actually said only a third of the people ever personalize their My
Yahoo page. The rest all have the web default. There are possibilities, but is it worth it
for people to actually put the time in? For instance, I would never get to classifying all of
my Amazon purchases, how important they are for the recommendations besides, things
change. You take a trip somewhere and you are really interested in books about
Indonesia. You are there, and you’re done.
Let’s talk a moment about what is shopping. Shopping is the process of creating,
maintaining, and refining product space awareness. Shopping is a process of
creating, maintaining, and refining product space awareness. If you think how marketers
used to reach people, by down casting towards people – the Super Bowl is an example.
The web came – you gave Amazon as an example. Ten years ago, very few people
switched between websites. The perceived threshold to move from one site to
another or switching costs was very high.
0:24:31.5
Studies in the late 1990’s showed more than 90% of people actually buy at the site
they first arrive at. This has changed. Websites thought they owned the customer
and they tried very hard to build up barriers of exit. If you ever tried to
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
unsubscribe from Hotwire, they would give you an 800 number and nobody ever
answers there.
Companies realized, with this exit barrier having dropped, that they don’t own the
customer anymore. It’s a good thing. The balance of power has shifted from the
companies toward the customer.
At least the companies own their products, right? I was at Nokia doing consulting,
about a month ago, in Finland. I got an E71, one of the shiny new European phones. I
wanted to use the map; it has GPS in it. It says, “That would be 129 Euros to activate the
maps.” I thought, “Hmmm, I’m pretty happy with Google Maps, not sure what I would get
for it.” I went to Google. None of the hits on the first page went to Nokia.com.
There, as they are carefully figuring out what color scheme should we use for our
website, they don’t realize that’s not where people are going who are actually looking for
information. The first point was companies don’t own their customer anymore. The
second point is companies don’t own their product anymore. It’s a huge effect in
marketing; all these things about how can spin stuff? Forget it; there is no
spinning anymore. The third thing – you said brand before. I will get back to you
in a second. What about the brand? Do companies at least own their brand?
Social media has taken care of their brand. The brand is pretty much by now what
people think about the company. It’s very difficult to influence people’s perception
of the brand, anymore. The world really has changed in those ten years. The term
I use for these shifts is “social data revolution”.
The second and third, for sure, are because people put up data, share data. I call
this social data, social meaning shared. That helps us make better purchasing
decisions for ourselves, not for the company.
At the same meeting with Nokia, we talked about customer value. The question came
up, “What do we mean by customer value?” Is it the value that the customer has for
Nokia? I don’t want to be heretical here, but maybe, should it be the value Nokia
has for the customer? There are really big shifts going on as social data are
everywhere, social data about products, social data about companies, and social
data about customer service.
You had a question, and then we’ll get to you.
Male:
My question was I see the importance of the social data. At the same time, for a
successful web 2.x company where is the line between leveraging the social data versus
the intelligence they should be providing back to the community, for example Amazon?
Once I bought a nightgown for my fiancé, it’s still giving me recommendations for
nightgowns when I go to the homepage. Shouldn’t it be smart enough to know what my
preferences are? Where is this line to draw between the community and the company?
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Andreas:
What do you think, the rest of the class?
Female:
It does. If it says… for you and you say, “Why are you giving this to me,” and it will say,
“You bought a gown last year.” You click a box that says, “I don’t want you to use that for
recommendations.”
Female:
I think that question is if you haven’t bought another nightgown in three years, why is this
showing up as a recommendation.
Male:
Right, and to that point, should I have to click the box that says yes or no that this is part
of my preferences? Shouldn’t a web 2.x company of the future have the intelligence built
into it to know that I’m a male, and I don’t regularly buy nightgowns for myself, so where
is the line?
Female:
At what point; three years, six years, two months?
Male:
I don’t know, that’s my question.
0:29:20.2
Andreas:
So, what this tells us here is the answer, as I said in the three pages I sent to you last
night, is more data. In this case, we had a lot of discussions with Jeff Bezos on what
I call the arrow of time. I always give the example that I looked at that battery and it
said great battery, would you like to buy the laptop that goes with it. If you have an
arrow of time, if you index things by time, you can do a very good job in
understanding that the little toddler is now grown up a year later and he needs
different things.
For some things, like toys, there was actually built into the system this time dimension. If
a year ago you bought x, then maybe now a year later, we might recommend y to you.
There are always, out of 50 million to 100 million products; some products like
nightgowns, is not clear whether you regularly buy nightgowns. Maybe you have a fetish
for nightgowns. Who knows that? We are liberal here. If you want to come in a
nightgown for the next class, no problem. On the other hand, some things are clearly
moving on in time.
That’s one dimension. The answer to that is you need to index things by time. It’s
not that the community is stupid, or something. It is that it’s too expensive to pay people
for 100 million items to figure out which item goes with what. For example, if you had 100
million items, how much would you need to pay somebody to figure out the things like
time dependencies per item? Perhaps $1. That would be $100 million just to have some
initial cut on knowing which item you should buy a year later. That’s just one question to
this. It’s a $1 billion project versus the whole recommender system which was pretty
cheap to develop.
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
If you are interested in that area, the best quote I know is Bill Joy’s quote, who was the
Chief Scientist at Sun. He once said, “Most smart people don’t work here.” You have to
be smart in providing a platform where people can actually contribute, can
contribute through implicit data, which is your click behavior, your purchasing
behavior. And they can contribute – in the web 2.x aspect, through explicit data.
Craig’s List is a beautiful example of saying, “This item is inappropriate,” and flagging
stuff as inappropriate. If a couple of people do it, it just disappears. You can’t pay people
to do this stuff.
Two weeks ago, I got a piece of mail from the German government. I was super
amazed. In East Germany, there used to be something called Staatsi, like the secret
police, like the KGB. I got the cover of my Staatsi folder. I wouldn’t know why anybody
would have been interested. In that stage, I was a graduate student in America. They
tried to do this; they tried to manually go through people and classify stuff. The life of
others is a beautiful firm which actually [[0:32:57.2 unclear] this very well. They had to
shut down because it was just too expensive to run a country, in this case, like that.
0:33:07.1
Coming up with platforms that do the marketing for you is one of the lessons that we
have to figure out how to do it and also how not to do it. Amazon.com, by the way, since
it came up a few times here; fired its entire marketing department in 2003. The traditional
people who tried to figure out what we should send out on the newspaper inset all went in
January, 2003.
If you look back, maybe Amazon is not doing that poorly. It’s probably the right idea to
constantly think about what people are good at, and how we can get people to contribute
stuff to us.
You had a question.
Claudine:
In terms of the value factor network sites have for consumers or their subscribers. Some
companies have gone as far as paying some of these people that make
recommendations on their websites. I know [0:34:11.3 unclear] they actually share some
of their ad revenues with people who made recommendations… we might see other
social … in terms of …
Andreas:
There are only a finite number of business models in the world. I will spend one of the
classes next month on what I think is a very promising business model. A whole bunch
of startups I’ve worked with are now monetizing on very well, which is virtual
items.
About a month ago, I asked a friend of mine, Danny Konnerman, in New York,
whether there is a difference between giving somebody a virtual item and giving
somebody a real item, besides the obvious difference that one is virtual and one is
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
real. Danny studies happiness. He got a Nobel Prize about six years ago for
Behavior Economics. He said, “Absolutely not.”
I am now running an experiment with Facebook. I’ll be over there on Thursday next week
because we have no class next week. We will be trying to send out about 99 red roses
and a whole bunch of red roses, virtually. It’s also good material for a short film. I
already have a person who is going to film that. Then, we want to understand what the
long-term effect is if somebody gives me a real red rose, 1-880-flowers.com, push a
button and it gets delivered. It’s dead after a week – versus somebody sending me a
virtual red rose that I can show on my Facebook page, and everybody knows that I got
something. It’s not clear how this comes out.
Virtual item trading has some monetization. Ads, of course, Google has marketing
[0:36:09.7 unclear] ads, of targeting ads. Sharing revenues – it tends to be self-interest,
what you said before. I’m with you here. Self-interest, ultimately, is more powerful
than the few cents you make down the road.
Another book that I didn’t mention before is a pretty straightforward book about the inside
and the outside of companies, by Don Tapscott, which is called, Wikinomics. If you
haven’t heard about it, you may just flick through it. Don Tapscott, T-a-p-s-c-o-t-t.
Wikinomics came out about two years ago. The other book, which I think is very good in
incentives and things like this is Dan Ariely’s book, Predictably/Irrational.
I still want to tell you what I did. I said I was at Amazon as Chief Scientist. I did a lot of
experiments figuring out what people do. I left in 2004 and for the last five years, I’ve
been doing a bunch of things. I’ve been teaching my course at Stanford, which is called
“Data Mining Business”.
I’ve worked with some cool companies. I got lucky with a few exits. One of them was a
Thai company called Agoda, which was sold to Priceline. Another one was a company
up in Oregon, called CleverSet, which was sold to ATG. CleverSet is an awesome
recommendation engine. I was with them for eight years as advisor. The third one I got
very lucky on was called Xiaonei. It’s a Chinese Facebook clone, a beautiful Facebook
clone. No creativity there, but hey, we sold it way too early. I’ve heard that they raised
millions and millions of dollars and are on a very high valuation.. These are the things
that I do.
What I want to do in the next seven minutes here, before 3:00, because I believe in
breaks; I want to walk you through the logistics of the class. If somebody knows how
light switches work, I can actually show this to you on the wiki. If somebody can try to
turn the light off, the fan goes on, many things happen, but the light stays on.
The first start for class is the page, www.weigend.com. If you forget everything, if you
remember my last name that’s a good start. Go to www.weigend.com and go to
“teaching”. They do have Internet at Berkeley, right? Yes, okay. If you go to teaching
and the go to “Haas”, this is the official course page.
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
As some of you might know, I’m teaching two sections of this class. The other section is
way full and is just two Sundays, next month. It’s for evening and weekend MBAs. This
section here is the one for fulltime MBAs. Since registration is complicated at Stanford,
people can actually check out the first class and then decide whether they want to take it,
which I think is a good approach. Here, I think people need to register a year ago, or
something like this. Since we are twenty-three students in class, I was very happy when
Julia at the department said we should open up to other people who are interested. I
view it as anybody who wants to sit in the class and help move the action forward, I am
fully supportive of that.
0:40:36.8
This is the official page that tells you similar to what I send out to everybody whose email
address I had, what’s going on here. Calls to action here are that you should sign up on
Facebook for www.socialdatarevolution.com, which just a short link. For the Facebook
group I have not only for you, but also for my current Stanford students and my past
Stanford students, where people just post interesting stuff in the area of marketing 2.0 or
marketing web 2.0, data mining, private data, public data, and so on.
Click on this group ID and if you can’t remember 536 or 7643126, then just remember
social data revolution, click on this, and it should show you the page to sign up for that
group.
The link for the class is our class wiki. That is www.haas2009.wikispaces.com. I have
the wiki for both sections. Since the content will be quite similar of course, irrespective of
whether you’re fulltime or evening/weekend MBA, but there are some logistics questions
like homework and stuff like this. I preface this with whether it’s the FT (full time) class or
whether it’s the EW (evening/weekend) class.
Let’s figure out during the break, how to get connected here. Let me tell you what we’re
doing in the second half of class, today. I need about 10 minutes, assuming we have a
decent Internet connection, to walk you through the logistics and to walk you through
what we’re doing in class. I want to make sure I answer all questions that you have. If
you actually wanted to edit the wiki, you should all have permission. It’s actually open for
world, and I need to change it to open for students.
It’s world readable, so don’t’ put your real, real secrets on it. It is only class editable.
That’s the way I like to do it. Then, I will pair you up with your neighbors. I will give you
about 10 minutes where you will have a discussion in pairs on what is actually new in
marketing 2.x. What do you expect from the class? What do you want to get out of it?
Then, we will collect this and that should bring us to 4:00.
Here we are. I would like to ask you for permission to complete this part before the break
and then to take the break in about 7 minutes.
First of all, this is a wiki. Does anybody have questions about what a wiki is?
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Omar:
What the heck is a wiki?
Andreas:
What the heck is a wiki? Who can explain it to – what’s your name? Who can explain
what a wiki is to Omar?
Male:
A wiki is a space where you can collective edit texts or typically, you start an article or
something and everyone can add to it, and delete. You have a sequence…
Andreas:
The idea here is, and I gave you an example from my class at Stanford last year, where
the students created way more in terms of material insights, than any individual can think
about. The idea here is that I provide you with a platform, but you do the work. It’s in you
doing the work and reflecting upon things that help you understand how it really affects
whatever it is that you are doing.
How do you edit the wiki? It’s very simple. You click on “edit this page”. I am worried
about my connectivity here, but in principle, that allows you to type over stuff. There is
history so that if you make a mistake, I can see it. Part of the grade actually comes
from me getting a feeling about what people contributed towards the wiki.
If I just jump down, since we’re talking about grading right now, grading has four parts.
If you want to edit here, you can simply type over it and then you save it. It’s pretty
straightforward. It’s not very good in many people editing the same document at the
same time. It’s not very advanced, but it’s free. It beats the B Space wiki that I checked
out and there is a reason probably very few are actually using it. That’s what a wiki is.
It is your space. I want you to put stuff in. Last quarter, I taught a five week seminar at
the Information School. People had the brilliant idea there – it was a small group – to
come with a section, to each class, “Questions to Ponder”. That was my far favorite
question, the questions people had as they worked in a group to bring the first version of
the wiki up after each class. They were wondering what the good, deep questions are.
It is not only regurgitating or organizing what you learned in class. It is just as much
figuring out what you didn’t learn in class and what you think are good questions.
I already pointed you to the official course page, here. I will go back out of editing mode,
here. I record every class, and that’s one of the few things where I have a different
directory for the full time as for the weekend students. I always put the mp3 up. I have
not decided, yet, whether I will do transcripts. I sometimes do transcripts. The mp3 will
be up in the evening of the class. If, for some reason, you can’t make it to class, just pop
the 2 hours into an mp3 player and listen to it on BART or whatever you’re taking.
That’s the official page and the content that I control The Facebook group, of course,
nobody controls. It is a pretty large community of people, hundreds of people who take
part here. Join it, post stuff, and post some questions about what you’re interested in.
The group of 200-300 people is a pretty amazing group of people.
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
0:48:27.9
For instance, I just saw one of the first people who responded was Jeff Hammerbacker,
who used to run the data group at Facebook. He is now a VC. It’s a good resource and I
really want you to not just think whatever you get in papers is where the world is, but
what is being created is being not being created in academia but it’s being created
outside in places like Facebook, and by the community.
Are there any questions about the Facebook group? Who of you has been to the group,
already? Okay, two-thirds of the people. That’s great. Are there any questions,
something that’s not clear? Are you relatively good at using Facebook or who of you
uses Facebook on a daily basis? Who of you uses Facebook on less than a weekly
basis? Huh, interesting. Why?
Male:
I just never got a lot of value with it.
Andreas:
From the people who use it on a daily basis, what value do you get out of it?
Female:
.. my friends are all over the world, so it’s a good way to keep track of their lives…
Male:
It might be me, but I don’t really care what my friends are doing. [Laughter]
Andreas:
I have no friends, so… there were some hands up there of people who use it less than on
a weekly basis.
Male:
I’m quite similar. I’m not so interested in what people are doing, just if someone gets new
pictures or …
Andreas:
New or nude? [Laughter]
Male:
So, I’m not a big fan.
Andreas:
What about you?
Male:
I just don’t the … keep checking it every day.
Female:
I feel like I’m going to get sucked in. I feel like it’s all… I don’t want everyone looking at
all my … and I also feel they’ll be looking at people I knew fifteen years ago, who were
my friends, but now I’m saying all sorts of things about them that …
0:51:12.1
Andreas:
Oh, that love from high school. Oh…okay, there are many ways of using a
communication platform. One thing is just to hang out with your friends and poke, and
know what they’re having for breakfast, or who they are having for dinner.
Alternatively here, it’s really much more of a professional way. People post videos, post
links, discover stuff, and they share this. Facebook, for the social data revolution, is a
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
discovery tool. A community of people finds something interesting and they put it
up in the hope that you will do the same, and actually contribute to it. Nobody gets
paid for this. Of course, it really lives or dies with interest the members bring to it
and what they get out of it.
The third point is I made a class social network. This year, for the first time, I’m building it
on top of Ning. Ning has about one million social networks under one umbrella. I saw,
when I invited people last night, that five or six of you actually already have their profiles
up at Ning, so Ning knew about you. You build your profile once and then reselect it to
other places.
I was thinking about this because you might think we’re doing double work here. First of
all, these are independent platforms from each other. It’s not clear yet, what will survive
in five years. I have a very good relationships with both companies so I [0:52:51.3
unclear] who started Ning, came to my Stanford class this year. I like to be able to look,
a year from now, and see who were the people in that specific class. They’re grouping it
as one of the million groups they have at Ning and remembering the [0:53:08.7 cough],
must have been in 2009 at Haas. I think that’s why this minimal effort is worth it,
particularly since we have both registered students and auditing students here in this
class. I decided it’s not worth trying to add everybody officially as an auditor to the class
list, so we can look them up. It is much more self-service. If you need to be added to the
list, send me a quick message by clicking the add me button, and I will accept you.
Ok so we have three of these sorts of web 2.0 things going on now. That’s part of
marketing web 2.0 that I want you to understand; what is their purpose and how
can we use them for marketing. The first one was a wiki. Amazon is a beautiful
example of a product wiki.
Second is Facebook as a tool. It is primarily a messaging tool. By the way, don’t
send me Facebook messages, and assume that I read them. I read my email. I read my
short messages, and that’s it. The rest I sort of sarcastically happen to be looking at.
When somebody says, “But I messaged you on LinkedIn,” so do many people. My email
is accessible and ww.weigend.com has contact information. You can text me, and I
make this very clear here. That’s the stuff I tend to, and the rest is sarcastic.
The third one was the social network. I think Ning has interesting monetization
ideas here that are what I wanted to give you as example. Twitter will be the first
homework. I will talk about this in a moment.
0:54:42.7
Male:
You pointed out Ning and who knows what’s going to be the Ning five years from now.
One of my big questions for this course is how do we determine what companies in web
2.x actually will have some longevity as opposed to the ephemeral nature we’ve seen, so
far, in these companies? As you look to enterprise adoption, SaaS, and so forth, how
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
can we buy into these companies when we really don’t know if they’re going to be
around. The barriers of entry are so low.
Andreas:
That’s a good question. What do I care for? Do I care if a wiki space is around a
year from now? Of course not. What I care about is what happens to the data I
create.
Who of you backs up their Facebook data regularly? If you want to know – we talked
about that high school friend of yours or whatever. If you want to know who that person I
poked two years ago was, how do you find that? Do you want to let it go, and maybe
only your enemies find it? They might be backing it up for you and then sell it to you for
ransom, blackmail, or whatever it’s called. These are the questions I really have. What
happens to the data I create.
Those networks are all more or less interchangeable to me.
Female:
… platform… what happens if it goes away in a year? What happens to my metric… no
longer exist. I would be more concerned about that …
Male:
… like Google Docs. What if I standardized my business on Google Docs and then
Google decides it’s not profitable and they shut it down? What happens?
Andreas:
Then you’re hosed, unless you do your backups. It’s the same point we had here.
Unless you regularly keep in some salt mine in Utah or on the Moon or wherever you
keep your data, a backup of what you create; why should Google Docs keep on
supporting you? You don’t pay them. You pay them for clicks, but not for Google Docs.
Those are good questions. I think I see you are thinking about this right now, what
happens to all the work I have in Google Docs. Good, you are thinking about it.
Male:
Maybe not so much like Google Docs, who have SLAs, then … pull the plug and you’ll
have x amount of time. Yahoo just pulled out the briefcase. Something I signed up for
and never even used, they gave me three or four warning to pick up my stuff before they
closed it down. There is data portability. He was making noise about privacy… it’s your
data, not theirs. I’m not saying it’s solved, … that marketers recognize as being a
problem. Your point… graph… the truth is that nobody really owns the graph. Open
social will get to the point where your graph will be embedded in many …, not just one. It
just so happens that Facebook is the first on that’s got your social graph…. You’re going
to tell me, and a bunch of people….
0:58:17.5
Andreas
I want to push through this. When and where do we meet? We know where we meet –
here. These are the dates. Next week, I was told it’s spring break, so no meeting next
week. Then, we have six classes afterwards, and I think we’re pretty clear about the
dates and times.
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
Office hours – I live in San Francisco so I’m here at Berkeley on Thursdays, for sure. I
have time after class, so if people want to make an appointment with me, happy to do
this. We may even, after the third or fourth class, go out for a beer afterwards, if people
have time, and talk more informally about how things are going. Shall we do that, or do
you have something at 4:00? Shall we pick the 9th of class 3 and go for a beer
afterwards, after 6:00? We can do office hours officially, from 4-6 and then get drunk
afterwards. [Laughter] It works, or do you preference between the 9th and 16th? I don’t
care. Okay, 9 here, followed by 6:00 p.m. Where will we go for a beer? Bear’s Lair.
They have pizza?
Next question is how will I be graded? There are four components to class. This is
the right one here. The general class info has the one for the evening/weekend MBAs.
This is the one for you right now.
The course wiki – there will be seven groups. Each group will pick one week and I
leave this totally to self-organization. You should be interested in roughly having uniform
distribution here. Monday evening, i.e., 4 days after class, Thursday, Friday you can
work, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday – Monday evening I want the wiki up. You will be
graded, one grade per group, about the quality of the wikis that day. My goal cannot be
to micro-understand what each person in the group did. You are all grownup and you
have to make sure everyone pulls their weight. That is 40%
I expect you to not only bring it up once, but to really contribute to this. That’s your way
of thinking about the class material, your way of coming up with richer ideas. It really
works. Be willing to actually try that out. Given that it’s a web 2.0 class, it’s a natural way
for us to do this.
The second point is homework. There will be a couple of assignments. I haven’t
decided, yet, how many. Partly is because I don’t know how it works. I have some
grader, or reader – I haven’t met him or her yet. I don’t know how much support I will be
getting. I will walk you through the first homework right now.
1:01:53.4
The first homework I have made due in two and a half weeks from now. This is what it is:
This homework looks at the issue of what we call “microblogging”. Twitter is the iconic
example. I have assigned an O’Reilly Report, which is on my web page, which was
written by and ex-MBA student from HAAS. It came out in November last year, right after
the election. It will give you some background.
There is no shortcut of playing with it. This is an individual homework exercise. It’s not a
group exercise. Four things I need people to do. One, is relevance. Twitter shows
you things in a temporal order. If I go to my Tweets, it’s just the most recent stuff on
top. That is pretty bad because there is a potentially interesting stuff that was done
yesterday, 200 tweets away. I will never get to that.
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
One question I have for you that has a beautiful parallel in marketing is how do we
get to the relevant stuff? What data should we collect? Should we collect data about
reading behavior in order to help people come up with pushing a button? “This is what
you ought to be reading,” as opposed to just last in/first out.
What data will you need? How are you knowing if you are doing a good job or not?
What are the metrics? If somebody says, “I have a really awesome relevance engine,”
and somebody else says, “You loser, that doesn’t do anything for me”; how do we agree
on that? What would be good metrics, good ways of measuring how relevant that
machine is versus that machine?
Are there any questions about the idea for relevance engine for Twitter?
Female:
Presumably, Twitter is only showing me updates from the people I choose to follow.
Theoretically, I manage my own relevance, if someone has a comment that’s not relevant
to me, then I don’t choose to follow them. Within certain people’s comments maybe there
are some things I would want to know. Is that what you want? This person posts 85 in
the last two days and …
Andreas:
We are already creating valuable input for the homework. She is saying, “We could
normalize this by the total number of posts that person is making.” I am
aweigend@twitter.com. I’m pretty much everywhere. I post every two or three days.
Other people might post all the time. You have only the choice of either following a
person or not following a person. That is unfortunately not enough granularity for most
people.
1:05:04.4
For instance, when I talk about tonight is the closing night of the Asian-American Film
Festival, maybe it would be a great night. Maybe you don’t want to know when I see a
certain film. But, if it’s about class, you might be interested if your homework assignment
has changed. These are good questions, content, how many people, how many
people follow him, how many people respond to that post. What are the attention
gestures that people, individuals have to things that are put in front of their nose?
I can delete it. I don’t want to see that again. I can unsubscribe from that guy.
One of the most painful apps is a Twitter app – a friend of mine showed me. It gives you
an email when some of your followers decide to un-follow you. It so sucks. Here, I pour
my heart into my latest tweet. “I love this movie…[ 1:06:04.2 unclear] at the Castro,” and
people decide to un-follow me. What’s their problem. I’m not using that app anymore.
But, that’s one way of getting feedback. You know, if many people unsubscribe after a
certain tweet you did, maybe there was something you said that wasn’t that interesting to
them.
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Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
The first one is I want you to think about those attention gestures that people can
come up with. We already did half of the exercise here. I’m not doing the homework for
you.
The second one is Mr. Tweet. Who of you know Mr. Tweet? You don’t? Mr. Tweet –
you have to follow Mr. Tweet. He helps you discover people you should be following. It’s
amazing. There is always room for improvement. What I want you to think about
here; this was relevance by the people you actually follow. This is discovering
new people you are not following yet. What would you recommend to Mr. Tweet?
Propose three clear improvements for Mr. Tweet.
Female:
How long does it take for Mr. Tweet to give you …
Andreas:
Start early with this one. Make your Twitter count today. Mr. Tweet needs to learn what
you’re doing because otherwise Mr. Tweet can only recommend random people to you.
The algorithm runs relatively quickie. It’s just two guys in the garage and they don’t have
enough computer power. They just got $300 thousand for funding. Don’t make them
trouble if it takes too long. They say they’ll get back to you within a day, but it should be
a few minutes.
It can only be as good – and that’s the sort of implicit data, the shared data – it can
only be as good as the data you share with Mr. Tweet. If you never do anything on
Twitter, how would poor Mr. Tweet know who you should be interested in?
Get started with this early. It’s not homework. None of the homework in this class if you
tried to do them the day beforehand. You need to get started on this one, spend half an
hour today, half an hour tomorrow; get a feeling of what it is. Let it sink in.
The third one is I want to know from you what are three use cases for Twitter in
class. I just took it out today, how I was going to use Twitter in class. If you go to the
iSchool page from the fall, you’ll see how I did it there. I think that with a group of 50
people, we will probably come up with better ideas of how to use Twitter in class than I,
as an individual with one idea can. That’s why I made it homework. What are the three
use cases for the use of Twitter in class?
1:08:49.0
One of the key differences in communication is that Twitter takes things which
were in the private and puts them up in the pubic. It’s no longer a question about
what the sender wants, but what the recipient wants to follow. That’s a very
powerful new paradigm.
Male:
How do you want these improvement proposals? Do you want them by …
Andreas:
Upstairs I made an email address: haas.ft.homework@gmail.com. I gave you the date.
It seems fair to give you about two and a half weeks for that. There is some inertia built
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
in. April 6, 5:00. If that doesn’t work for any reason, I’m happy to change it now. Is
something wrong with April 6? No, okay. We’ll stick to that. You send it in and by that
stage I for sure will have figured out what the grader situation is.
The last point is, and for that I have some very good material. I will share with you
after class. Go on the web and figure out what the situation is for microblogging
for companies. Dell made million last year and stuff like this. Do a search; spend an
hour or so. Get a feeling about what companies are trying to do in their marketing
departments with Twitter. BestBuy is a beautiful example. Whole Foods has three
people Twittering and stuff like this. I leave you to experience that. What I then have is a
study I will walk you through from SAP, the German software company. It’s on
Microblogging in the Enterprise. It will be quite interesting for you to see what we believe
is the case from what they think is the case.
Here, give three dos and don’ts for companies. Don’t do trivial ones. Don’t say, “Avoid
typos,” or stuff like this. I want non-trivial stuff. You’re smart people. Give it some
thought. No need for lengthy explanations. There is need for thought about stuff ahead
of time.
Here is one book that is actually pretty simple and good. If you are not an expert, if the
O’Reilly thing is not good enough; this guy wants to make money so I would be violating
copyright law if I uploaded my copy from my PDF, for you. If you are interested in that, I
don’t care what you do among yourselves. As an instructor, I can’t give you the thing.
It’s a reasonable book. You might not need it if you are somewhat familiar with it. I’m not
pushing it. I don’t know the guy. I don’t get kickbacks here. That’s a reference for
people who are a little worried that they don’t know what I’m talking about here. That
might be one way. Maybe you could share a copy. Once a person is done with a PDF,
they can give it to the next person, or something like that.
1:11:51.7
That’s the first homework. I think it should work well. We have one class between now
and then where we can talk if you have problems with it. I’m certainly happy to address
those. Good.
To summarize here; this is a wiki. Did I mention it’s a wiki where everybody is expected
to do some editing. We talked about grading. Homework assignment, class
participation is 20%. I need to know your names. If somebody did not get an email
from me within the last 24 hours, if there are people in the room who did not get an email,
I might have gotten your email address wrong; come to me after class and I’ll make sure I
add you – whether you are registered or whether you are auditing to the list of people I hit
up with emails.
What needs to happen in the last half hour is we will take a very short break. Then,
spend ten minutes talking to your neighbors. If you don’t like your neighbor, find
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Transcript of Andreas Weigend
Marketing 2.x: The Social Data Revolution
MBA 267, Spring 2009-B
Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley
somebody else. That’s a good thing about the break; if you don’t like your neighbor, you
can sit somewhere else.
Final note; what do you think is exciting about this? What are the deep questions you
have beyond trivialities? I will collect this. Write it on a piece of paper. From each
group, I want to get one piece of paper about what you actually want to get out of the
course. I will collect it, comment on it for about fifteen minutes in class, but I read it
carefully at home.
Two minutes break; find a partner, and then at 3:40, 12 minutes from now, I will get
pieces of paper from you and we will discuss the rest of the 40 minutes and I will tell you
what I’m doing.
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http://www.weigend.com/files/teaching/haas/2009/recordings/audio/weigend_haas2009_1introduction-1_2009.03.19.doc
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