Setting Sales Target Using the Reverse Sales Funnel Approach Sajal Chakravarty, Gyan Professional Services, Bangalore -560029, INDIA. ABSTRACT This article expounds upon the approach of a reverse sales funnel to identify marketing strategies that are ideally suited to maximize the sales of insurance policies and financial services. Diverse marketing approaches are analyzed from a comparative perspective. The analysis is both, qualitative as well as quantitative. Besides, behavioral traits of prospects are also suggested, in order to minimize the resistance to sales that is typically encountered by sales personnel. Though the article is based on the data (collected from the Internet) pertaining to the financial and insurance sectors, the approach discussed can be applied to a generic sales platform. The aim of this endeavor is to ascertain a fundamental probabilistic theory that is implicit in the buying behavior of human beings. The ultimate objective of this study is to formulate this probability as an automated (programmed) tool that would assist sales personnel in setting their net income as a function of the efforts that are needed at each stage/ layer of the funnel. 1. Introduction A Sales Funnel constitutes the most important element of all businesses, the customer acquisition and sales. It represents the volumetric influx of customers at various stages of the sales cycle. A typical sales funnel is shown in Figure 1. As shown above, the funnel starts with the prospects in the beginning and ends with the number of sales achieved. The other stages of the funnel demonstrate the sieving of the potential customers, through the various layers. For example, in the above context out of twenty negotiations ten prospects committed verbally to buy the product/service, out of which eight sent purchase orders. The second column in the figure shows the increment/decrement of the number of prospects as compared to the data of the previous month. Statistical analysis gathered over a considerable period allows us to arrive at a conclusion about the ‘conversion factor’ involved at different stages of the sales cycle. The period of the sales cycle can be taken as the time from ‘first discussion’ to that of the receiving of the ‘written order’. It should be noted that before arriving at any statistical evidence of the steepness of the funnel one must consider various demographic parameters like (age-wise) population distribution, income group, awareness of the product/service in the prospect sample and the marketing costs involved before starting the sales operations. In contrast, a Reverse Sales Funnel is a construct that defines the final magnitude of leads required by a sales force. Once this task is accomplished, it is backed up through emails, events, outbound calls, paid search, referrals or other such marketing efforts. The advantage of a Reverse Sales Funnel lies in the simple idea of optimization. Optimization dramatically increases the value of each inquiry to your bottom line, the number of initial leads. This effectively boils down to a significant cost reduction in the marketing activities. 2. Motivation As proposed in the earlier section, the idea behind conducting the exercise of conducting this study is to reach an optimization in terms of maximizing sales and minimizing the marketing expenditures involved in generating the required volume of final sales. Besides, one can also diversify the range of products/ services which are placed at different market prices by scaling the conversion ratios at each layer of the funnel. Though the Reverse Sales Funnel approach is helpful in assisting the sales agenda of a workforce, it is by no means a comprehensive description of the final sales figures. It is obvious that at each stage of the RSF the conversion has a correlation to the public awareness that has reached at that stage. Hence, the marketing enterprise at that particular stage turns out to be an all important parameter in determining the ‘number of converts’. Therefore, it is imperative that marketing channels be synergetic in order to achieve the maximum sales potential associated with the item. For instance, for any new product that needs a launch, the advertising should precede the efforts of telemarketing and sending mailers. Likewise, a referral program for makes sense only when there is an adequate number of individuals who have already signed up as customers. This indicates that if the marketing and promotional channels are coordinated in a synergetic manner, we can achieve a higher degree of prospect response at different stages of the sales cycle. This is discussed in detail in Section 5. Let us discuss a typical scenario to explain the functionality of the RSF. The reader is urged to perceive this in the sense of an automation tool/a software program which performs the calculations using a pre-conceived formulation. The inputs that a salesperson needs to provide is the income that he wishes to make by selling a product and the underlying expenses that he needs over a month/year. The RSF data analysis tool performs the calculations to come up with all the spadework that he requires to perform in order to achieve his target income. These would include the different stages of sales cycle such as: i) ii) iii) iv) The number of cold calls. The number of presentations The number of emails The number of personal interviews, and all the other activities that go in to making of sales. The optimization algorithm that lies in the heart of the software program imposes the constraints of the specified income and the specified total expense, uses weight parameters of each activity that is calculated from sample data and establishes the new proportional constant that symbolizes each of the marketing activities. This can be explained in terms of mathematical equations having the following form:I= S*N E = e1 + e2 + e3 + …… + eN Where I and E represent the Income and the Expenditure respectively, S is the sales commission (just a constant) for one sale and N is the total number of ‘converts’ who send a purchase order. In other words, N follows a progression which is determined by the statistics of the real life consumer behavior data (over the entire sales cycle) gathered to strengthen the knowledge of the software application. The bottom-line of the entire approach is to maximize N, by the most favorable decomposition of E, in terms of e1, e2, etc. Once again we realize the importance of the alignment of the marketing activities in order to achieve the best possible sales figures! At this point the author expresses his deep regret at not being able to trace any real life sales data pertaining to the insurance or any other financial sector and therefore confines the realm of the subsequent discussion to theoretical arguments validated with symbolic mathematical expressions. Once real-life data is obtained it can be simply plugged into the database with minimal programming modifications. Till then, the database structure shall be considered in the most generic manner, with variable notations. It maybe worthwhile to mention that such a generic treatment would find much use in an RSF analysis of a wide variety of saleable products. The notation followed to describe the entries at each layer would be termed as N1, N2, N3, etc. while the expenses would be as described earlier. Before going ahead with the task of devising the funnel statistics and probabilistics, let us first survey the different marketing channels that maybe adopted towards product promotion and sales. 3. Marketing Channels and their efficacy As illustrated in the above figure, the overall sales and marketing initiative comprises of identifying the right market segments and target accounts as a strategic measure. This is followed by the go-to-market programs wherein the product/service is launched in the market via various campaigns such as advertising, telemarketing, tradeshows etc. Since this document is confined to the domains of financial services and insurance, our task would be to identify the marketing strategies which are effective with respect to the domain under consideration. In this context, let us first name the processes that we would entail as a part of the marketing initiative. 1) Advertisements – This age old communication method of reaching out to the masses via print/ electronic media or billboard hoardings is still effective in its purpose. The advantage of advertising is perhaps its high visibility and the collective appeal that it draws. With respect to the insurance sector advertisements fulfill the following objectives: (i) encourage agents and brokers to sell insurance products, (ii) predispose customers to be receptive to sales calls, (iii) enhance an insurance company's public image, (iv) support introduction of new products, and (v) influence public opinion on issues of importance to the insurance industry. Product advertising describes particular products and why they would be beneficial. Institutional advertising describes the financial strength and the stability of a company. While it is important to highlight the range of products and their utilitarian value by advertising products, it is also necessary to emboss the brand of the company in the mindsets of people. In case of a new company, institutional advertising is the spadework that always serves to make the public aware of the existence of the company, thus paving the way for further communication at the individual or mass level. The most vital aspect of framing an advertisement is to identify the size of the target market and the human element that helps the prospect to relate to the product. For instance, it was easy for every individual to understand and appreciate the dark humor of Chad Johnson (the Cincinnati Bengals’ wide receiver) in reference to Al Harris (the cornerback from Green Bay Packers) when Johnson said, “Well, the bad news for him is that he has to cover me this Sunday. The good news is that he can save up to ten percent by switching to GEICO.” This offhand joke was relayed over ESPN and printed in almost every newspaper, creating a recurring publicity for GEICO. Before we go ahead with this section, let us ask how much does it cost to advertise? Well, the GEICO cartoon lizards and cavemen gobbled $502 million in 2005 alone to promote the brand, and Warren Buffet announced in the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report that he can’t wait to spend more!! Does this mean that the common man has to pay a higher insurance premium in proportion to the ad-campaigns or is it that the ad-campaigns generate so many more customers (and hence revenue) to lower down the policy rates. The answer is quite simple: to the Berkshire Hathaway group $502 million is a drop in the bucket. However, a startup insurance company has to limit its expenditure on advertising without giving up on the competition. This can be dealt with by targeting a niche market segment or a specific age group or geographical location. Lizards and cavemen can be humorous, but there are other human emotions of compassion, benevolence and caring that can appeal to people in subtler ways. Undoubtedly, advertisements can play a big role in generating higher awareness of the products, thereby reducing the sales cycle period by significant margins. However, in recent times there has been an increase in the registering of complaints, from customers who have subscribed to financial policies. Finance companies, such as Lloyds TSB and Chase de Vere have been fined for misappropriate advertisements that were instrumental in misleading customers about their interest rates. As an advertiser of financial services, one needs to be prudent about product description, hidden features, accurate risk profile, past performance figures and performance comparison with similar products from other companies. 2) Search Engine Marketing (SEM) – This form of Internet based marketing has gained tremendous popularity and growth over the last few years. There are various websites which enlist thousands of insurance firms and agents in a location-wise manner, thus helping the prospect to meet his goal. In fact, SEM has been found to be much more effective than conventional advertising in many cases. The principle of SEM is simple: when a user tries to look for a particular product with the aid of a search engine he gets multiple webpages which have the keyword that he is searching for. In order to promote the page and hence the product, the ranking of the page should be high, and this is achieved by optimizing the content of the page in a favorable manner. This method is known as Search Engine Optimization (SEO); Google, a leading Search Engine allows for a provision (called Adwords) that claims to incorporate certain features in a webpage that results in better exposure of a webpage. A case study conducted to bring out the efficacy of SEO/ Adwords showed that SEM produced better results in comparison with conventional radio advertising. The parameter used for comparing the results of the two channels was appropriately chosen as Cost per Lead (CPL). The results are displayed in the table given below. Month 1st Month 2nd Month 3rd Month Avg. CPL Radio 62 46 NA $240.74 Adwords 37 47 62 $17.98 SEO 29 44 60 $22.55 It is clear that Search Engine Marketing tactics (SEO + Adwords) outperformed the radio advertisement channel by a factor of 10. Besides, the study also revealed that the conversion rate of radio advertisements was not satisfactory, since after stopping the radio advertisements in the third month, the traffic went down by 16% whereas the conversion rate went up by 21%, suggesting that the traffic induced by radio was of low quality. Further, it was found that the leads brought in by the SEM channel kept climbing (as expected) before leveling off. The reader can find the other details of this survey on http://www.marketingrevisited.com/marketing-case-study-search-enginemarketing-vs-radio-for-local-advertising/ Considering the above example as a yardstick to measure comparable marketing strategies, it maybe stated that in today’s Internet savvy world where technology determines the mindset and buying prowess of the masses, SEM is perhaps the most powerful tactic that can bring about a dramatic change in the business development of any organization. 3) Telemarketing - Telemarketing calls have become a part of our everyday life and most of us have grown used to it, if not averse to it. To the extent that telephone companies have a new utility for subscribers that shields them from telemarketing calls. However, telemarketing still remains a major force in the sales operations of a wide range of companies. The most salient feature of telemarketing is the ‘human touch’ factor. It helps you to introduce your company to the prospect. It allows you to be nice and cordial to your prospective customer from the first moment of interaction. Calling up prospects is cost effective when compared to direct sales, giving you a higher visibility of the results on an everyday basis. The efficacy of telemarketing can be gauged by the fact that a new industry segment of outbound Business Outsourcing Processes (BPO) has grown as a consequence of it, since the set-up cost for this is minimum. The method adopted in any telemarketing exercise is that of following a fixed, structured script. The script should have precise questions that help you to gather the maximum information about the prospect and his interest in your product(s). The immediacy factor makes telemarketing as a favorite marketing strategy for a wide range of businesses. It is amazing how a product that was developed more than 100 years ago is the greatest sales tool till date. 4) E-Mail Marketing – The most compelling benefit of e-mail marketing is its immediacy, thus enabling marketers to quickly and economically deliver a potent message to a marketing segment. But that benefit can work against you if e-mail is poorly targeted or overused as a contact method. E-mail marketing also helps to realize an overall multi-touch strategy—which includes lead generation, lead qualification, audience acquisition, e-fulfillments, survey, customer satisfaction measurement, seminar registration confirmation and reminders and more. It must be noted that this marketing channel has a few technical challenges associated with it, from maximizing e-mail delivery and avoiding Spam filters to making the creative messaging relevant and actionable. The typical e-mail response rates in the range of ~0.5% to ~2%, but there are measures which if adopted can significantly scale-up these figures. Therefore, in order to boost the campaign results significantly, integrating e-mailing campaigns with other components such as follow up phone calls, mail sequences, events and web demos, might be necessary. The author is convinced of this multi-pronged approach, based on his own experience with the subject. A discouragement that you might face with e-mail marketing is when the spam filter of the recipient identifies your email message as SPAM. To circumvent this problem, the emails can be fine tuned to annul factors that cause them to get caught in SPAM filters. Once this has been performed, a thorough testing would confirm that the email reaches the inbox of the recipient and not his junk mail folder. Furthermore, it is possible to track whether the mail was read by the recipient and any hyperlinks mentioned in the email were clicked by him. The entire statistics for the email blast can be gathered to evaluate whether the purpose of the exercise was served or not. 5) Direct Mails – The practice of sending direct mails to increase sales has been around for years. However, direct mail as a sales practice has taken a dip with the advent of the Internet, with fewer companies showing interest in this marketing effort. The general feeling is that of anachronism and that customers will not respond to it. Despite these concerns, there is substantial evidence that a company can use direct mail to increase sales, using novel and unique methods. The previous section which discussed e-mail marketing does not have a personalized touch as compared to direct mailing. A direct mail can never be rejected as SPAM. We all know the feeling of opening an envelope that had our name inscribed on the cover. The enthusiasm, the anticipation and the suspense of discovering what is waiting for us and vice-versa is almost indescribable. It is a nice idea to send mementos in a direct mail, instead of just letters or flyers. In today’s ‘online’ world where every other thing starts with an e-something or isomething, an ‘offline’ direct mail speaks something different about itself. Let us remember, a company is more than a website, a communication is more than an email and there are gifts which money cannot buy. Somehow, a direct mail convinces of something more tangible and which overthrows the virtual aspect of a company’s existence which has been symbolized by the Internet. In the subsequent sections of this paper we shall discuss the various layers of the reverse sales funnel approach which entails a multi-step marketing plan. The key to use direct mail to increase sales is to show the customer that the company wants to create a business relationship, as opposed to only trying to get money. Naturally, the main goal of the company is to make money from customers that buy its products and services, but developing good relationships through finding ways to use direct mail to increase sales can help bring in more money and build a better customer base in the long run. Being innovative and ensuring that all potential customers are marketed to as skillfully as possible is the best way to use direct mail to increase sales, no matter what company or product is being marketed. Industry standards predict that a direct mail piece produces a 1-3% response with maybe 6-10% of responders qualified as true sales leads. 6) Seminars and Tradeshows – The best channel to disseminate information and increase product awareness to a group of people who wish to know about the product voluntarily. If arranged in a proper manner, tradeshows have the potential to generate as much as 40 times the expenditure on them!! 7) Referral schemes The purpose of a referral program is straightforward: to reach out to a greater section of the market segment by recommendations from the consumer on his/her experience with the product/ service. Indeed, referral schemes play a pertinent role in determining businesses for a multitude of organizations in diverse domains. In return, referral schemes deploy the method of attaching value added incentives to the individuals who participate in these schemes. Some of the key benefits that referral systems bring along are: a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) Increase the sales of the product/service (often by multiple times). Rapid growth of client database Lower the advertisement cost Increase the exposure in the market Reduce/eliminate cold calling No need to chase unproductive sales opportunities Make it possible to focus on high margin sales. Ensue a stream of customers, many of whom have often deliberated on your product/ services and may already have placed their trust on you. i) Spend less time and effort. The above factors contribute to motivate organizations in placing a referral system as a part of their sales endeavor. The rewards associated with referrals are managed by diverting the funds invested in marketing/ advertising campaigns in a strategic and fool proof manner. 4. Sales Funnel Analysis of the Channels Now that we have analyzed the various marketing strategies that have a significant component in the final sales potential of a product, let us compare them in a quantitative manner. The parameters that matter in the comparison are: a) b) c) d) e) f) g) Awareness Generation (AG) Global Coverage (GC) Lead Qualification (LQ) Customer Acquisition (CA) Customer Retention (CR) Cost Per Lead (CPL) Immediate Sales Potential (ISP) Since we have a quantitative task at hand, this section will be devoted to numerological labels. The reader is urged to replace these numbers based on his personal assessment. The importance of this quantification shall become obvious in the Section 6, when the reverse funnel dimensions are formulated. Each parameter (against each of the marketing channels) is assigned a number on the scale of 1-10 depending on its effectiveness. For example, e-mail marketing and SEM have better global coverage than direct mails. For a better visibility of the comparison, the quantitative analysis is done in a tabular form. AG GC LQ CA CR CPL* ISP Advertising SEM Telemarketing E-mail marketing 10 8 7 7 7 8 5 6 4 8 6 6 3 7 5 2 2 1 4 6 5 9 7 8 1 1 5 1 Direct Mailing 6 4 7 5 7 7 1 Events Referrals 9 3 8 7 3 3 1 4 3 10 9 10 6 9 CPL* - A high value of CPL indicates low costs per lead. It is once again advised to replace the above numbers according to your beliefs, since these may have strong variations depending on the product/service, geographical locations and cultural diversions. Another extremely important point to remember is: the entire matrix can change depending on the scale of operations and the underlying investments. The numbers denote a relative measure across the channels, though there does exist an implicit logic that overrules the relative significance. For example, referrals always have an immediate sales potential, have a high probability of lead qualification and are bound to retain the customer/ referrer. Hence each of these are assigned a value of ‘10’. Similarly, SEM is not directed toward customer retention and e-mail marketing/ direct marketing are not channels that have an immediate sales potential, thus giving them a low score of ‘1’. The number of prospects generated at the beginning of each channel will be proportional to the product of the first two parameters, i.e. NP α (AG) * (GC) …..(1) This comes from the analogy of a flow in a pipe (remember the funnel). The awareness growth can be correlated to the speed of flow whereas the global coverage is the cross sectional area of the pipe. Thus, the ratio of the number of prospects generated by each of the channels in the above matrix would be (10* 7) : (8*8) : (7*5) : (7*6) : (6*4) : (9*3) : (4*3) ….(2) which turns out to be 70 : 72 : 35 : 42 : 24 : 27 : 6, suggesting that the most suitable prospecting source is that of advertising media and the least number of prospects arrive from the referral channel. The fraction of prospects that trickle through the first layer of the funnel can be calculated as the ratio of the number of individuals who qualify as potential leads to that of the number of prospects. Thus, in the above example the probability of seeping through the first layer of the funnel would be calculated as P1 = { (4/ 70) , (8 / 64) , (6 / 35) , (6 / 42) , (7 / 24), (8 / 27) , (9 /12) } …(3) This maybe visualized as the slope of the funnel at the interface of lead qualification. Likewise, the slope of the second layer: CA/ LQ can be calculated as a probabilistic measure. P2 = { (3 / 4) , (7 / 8) , (5 / 6), ( 2 / 6) (5 / 7) , (7 / 8) , ( 9 / 9) } ….(4) Please presume the probabilities to be an attempt to symbolize the theory. In reality, the matrix elements would be tabulated from survey data and statistical sales data. The customer retention (CR) field can be considered as an independent flow that matters only at the final sales revenue. The grades in the table only show how efficient the marketing channel is, in retaining existing customers, with respect to each other. The immediate sales potential (ISP) of a channel is a component that affects the sales cycle. The average sales cycle is speeded up by introducing a (marketing) channel which scores high on the ISP index. In terms of funnel geometry, a high ISP would mean greater slope to promote the sales flow and therefore finds importance when the sales need to be boosted to meet impending targets. The marketing expenditure and cost per lead is discussed in the next section. 5. Synchronization of the Channels – Absolute Targeting So far we have analyzed a parametric description of various marketing channels which generate prospects that enter the sales funnel and are sieved at the different layers of the funnel. Assigning the indices has been done considering each marketing component as an independent factor. We shall now consider the optimization of these channels by synchronizing them in a way so as to achieve maximum sales, hence the phrase ‘absolute targeting’. As mentioned earlier, this co-ordination of channels depends on various functions of the master sales plan such as the sales budget, the sales territories and the sales cycle. The fundamental idea presented in this section is that of establishing a temporal precedence of the seven channels discussed in the article. I give a couple of examples to illustrate the point. A) Logically, the advertisement channel should be the first to be broadcasted. B) It only makes sense to start a referral scheme only when there is a critical mass in the customer database. Therefore, it is obvious that the sales plan begins with the advertising campaigns with an effort to generate awareness. As the leads begin being generated, the other marketing channels are put into operation. Out of the other six channels, the referral scheme would be fixed at the last position of the sales cycle. It would then be a choice among telemarketing, e-mail marketing, SEM, direct mailing and conducting events. Let us have a look at the various stages of the sales cycle. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) Awareness Inquiry Information Sales Desire Proposal Close sale-purchase Follow up The discussion in the last section addresses the aforementioned stages. The choice of the channels can be decided depending on the details of the sales plan. Here, we discuss four such situations. Cases 1 2 3 4 Budget Low Low High High Cycle Short Long Short Long Since we have the advertising channel at the beginning of the cycle and the referral scheme as the final stage, we are left with the other five channels of telemarketing, email marketing, SEM, direct mailing and managing events. The precedence of these channels depends upon the budget-cycle combination that we have on the sales plan. We will discuss each of the four cases mentioned above. Case 1 For a low budget, short duration sales cycle the middle layers would comprise of telemarketing, email marketing, SEM and direct mailing, in that order. Organizing events are seldom low budget activities and should be avoided if operating on a shoe string budget. Case 2 For a long duration, low budget plan the precedence would be telemarketing, SEM, email marketing, direct mailing and conducting events. SEM gets a preference since it takes a few months for the SEM to reach the desired results. Case 3 For a high sales budget that is operative over a short sales cycle, it is desirable that the information dissemination happens at a fast rate. The channel precedence would be a simultaneous launch of the telemarketing and SEM operations, followed by the dispatch of mailers and direct mails, inviting for attending a seminar/ tradeshow. A referral scheme that runs for a short period could be of much use to generate large sales volumes. Case 4 For a sales plan which has a big budget and an extended sales cycle, we should start with telemarketing, followed by SEM, emails and direct mails can be sent to prospects to participate in trade shows and seminars. This is an ideal scenario when the expenditure on events can generate voluminous leads and hence a large magnitude of sales. A referral scheme is also ideal for this choice of sales operations. Due to enough funds it should be possible to run multiple advertisements in diverse geographic locations, both in print as well as the electronic media. 6. Automation Tool to Depict Sales vis-à-vis a Target Income Before we formulate the funnel analytics let us define the system variables, which if known carry the complete information about the system. The system considered here is a layer of the sales funnel. Each layer is defined by two variables, E and N, denoting the expenses of the layer and the number of individuals who fall into that layer. We keep a very generic model wherein all channels are open at all the layers. Or in other words, we are allowing all the marketing channels to contribute to the presales of a particular layer. Now, let us define the variables The expense incurred at a layer p is written as Ep and comprises of contributions toward the expenditure borne towards each of the channels, given as e1p, e2p etc. Therefore, Ep = e1p + e2p + …….enp …………..(5) The other variable Np or the number of individuals at the ‘pth layer’ can be written as Np = k1e1p + k2e2p + …….knenp ..................(6) Where k1, k2 , k3 can be written as the inverse of the ‘cost per lead’ for that particular channel. Since we know the total expenditure and the desired income, the problem lies in optimizing the e’s to meet the constraint of (5) and (6). Since we know all the values of N. We can calculate the values of individual expenditure of all the channels for each layer of the funnel by deploying optimization principles. In this way, we get the formula for maximizing the sales of a product adopting Reverse Sales Funnel methodology.