THE INDIAN NATIONAL ELECTION 2014 – THE QUICK GUIDE
SPEAKING NOTES TO PRESENTATION
SLIDE 2 – ELECTION OF THE 16TH INDIAN PARLIAMENT
India is the biggest democracy in the world.
It is a miracle of human endeavour and a triumph of administration that a developing
country with 1.2 billion people is able to hold a mostly peaceful national democratic
vote.
The figures in this slide provide just a snapshot of the scale of the exercise.
The 2014 national election is being held over 9 phases (days) from 7 April to 12 May
with the results announced on 16 May.
The national vote will decide the representatives of the Lok Sabha (“Lower House”)
of the parliament. The make up of the Lok Sabha determines who forms
government and who will be India’s Prime Minister.
SLIDE 3 – BACKGROUND
A Federal system of government
India has a traditionally had a relatively centralized form of federal government. The
federal government controls most essential government functions. These include:
defence, foreign policy, currency, income tax, excise duty, railways, shipping, posts
and telegraphs, etc
State governments formally control: agriculture, education, law and order within
states, taxes on entertainment and wealth, sales tax. The states are dependent on
central government for funds.
Both Parliament and the State Assemblies (legislatures) have the power to legislate
in items appearing in the “concurrent list”: electricity, newspapers, criminal law,
marriage and divorce, stamp duties, trade unions, price controls, etc.
The balance of power between central and state governments varies by time and
place. There is considerable centre-state conflict. The recent trend has been
towards decentralization of power and an increase in the importance of the states in
Indian affairs.
28 states, 7 union territories with the national capital in New Delhi
As this map shows India has 28 states and 7 territories. In February, a new state
called Telangana was announced. It has been carved out of the existing state of
Andhra Pradesh. The new state will come into existence on June 1, 2014. This will
take the number of states to 29.
Governed by a constitution (1950) and sovereign, secular, democratic
India is governed by a constitution that came into effect on 26 January 1950. India’s
constitution stipulates that the country is a sovereign, democratic, republic. The
words “socialist” and “secular” were added later with the 42nd Constitution
Amendment 1976.
Parliamentary system
Like many countries that are part of the Commonwealth (UK, Australia, Canada, New
Zealand) India has a parliamentary system.
The next slide covers the operation of the parliamentary system in more detail.
SLIDE 4 - INDIA’S PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM
The Parliament of India, also popularly known as Sansad is the supreme legislative
body in India. The Parliament comprises the President of India and the two
Houses—Lok Sabha (House of the People) and Rajya Sabha (Council of States).
The President has the power to summon and prorogue either House of Parliament or
to dissolve Lok Sabha.
India's government is bicameral: Rajya Sabha is the upper house and Lok Sabha is
the lower house. The two Houses meet in separate chambers in the Sansad Bhavan
in New Delhi.
Those elected or nominated (by the President) to either house of Parliament are
referred to as members of parliament or MPs. The MPs of Lok Sabha are directly
elected by the Indian public and the MPs of Rajya Sabha are elected by the
members of the State Legislative Assemblies, in accordance with proportional
representation.
The Parliament is composed of 790 MPs, who serve the largest democratic
electorate in the world.
National elections take place at least every five years, but they can be held earlier if
the government calls an early vote or loses the confidence of the majority of the
members.
Lok Sabha
India’s sixteenth general election will fill 543 of the 545 seats of the lower house of
the parliament, the Lok Sabha (“House of the People”).
Representatives are chosen by direct election on the basis of universal adult
suffrage .
Representatives are elected from 543 single-member districts of roughly equal
population. Candidates and their political party are included on the ballot paper.
The electoral system first-past-the-post, winner-take-all.
Two members of the Lok Sabha are nominated by the President to represent the
Anglo-Indian Community.
Rajya Sabha
The Rajya Sabha or Upper House has 245 members: 233 members represent states
and union territories plus 12 members are nominated by the president.
The Rajya Sabha is a states house. It’s members are indirectly elected by the
elected members of Legislative Assemblies of the concerned states.
The Rajya Sabha cannot be dissolved. Members have terms of 6 years with 1/3
members retire at end of every 2nd year.
The Prime Minister
The Prime Minister of India is elected by the Lok Sabha. As a matter of practice the
leader of the majority party leader in Lok Sabha becomes the Prime Minister. Ina
departure from this convention, the outgoing Prime Minister is from the Rajya Sabha.
The Prime Minister nominates members of the cabinet.
In practice, enormous power is concentrated in the office of the Prime Minister. The
Prime Minister will be involved in most major decisions.
The current Prime Minister of India is Manmohan Singh. He has been PM for 10
years and is not running for PM in this election.
The Cabinet
The Cabinet is made up of Members of Parliament in the ruling coalition. Cabinet
members may also be selected from the Rajya Sabha.
President.
The President is elected by members of both House of Parliament and Legislative
Assemblies of the States for 5 years.
The position is a ceremonial office. The President is meant to symbolize national
unity and is supposed to be above partisan politics.
The President acts on the advice of the prime minister
President plays a significant role when the selection of a prime minister is complex,
such as where no clear governing coalition after an election.
SLIDE 5 – HOW THE NATIONAL ELECTION WORKS
The 2014 election will be held over a record 9 phases.
The process starts on 7 April and continues over five weeks until 12 May with the
final result declared on 16 May.
The elections need to completed before the Lok Sabha’s term expires on 31 May.
2014.
There are no primaries in the Indian system. Parties have their own internal
processes for determining their slate of candidates
SLIDE 6 – ELECTION RESULT AND FORMING GOVERNMENT
The Election Commission of India
The independent Election Commission of India oversees the election. It announces
a Model Code of Conduct that goes into force when elections are announced. The
model code is a set of norms that guides the activities of the parties, candidates and
incumbent governments so they don’t unduly influence the elections.
India’s Electronic Voting Machines
Electronic Voting Machines ("EVM") were first introduced in Indian elections from
1999. The EVMs reduce the time in both casting a vote and declaring the results
compared to the old paper ballot system. However, there have been allegations that
EVMs can be tampered with so now the EVM’s have a Voter-Verified Paper Audit
Trail (VVPAT) system. Nepal, Bhutan, Namibia and Kenya have purchased Indian
EVMs. Fiji is also expected to use them in their elections in 2014.
Forming Government
After the results are announced by the Election Commission the President will ask
the leading party to form a government. If no party wins an absolute majority of
seats, leading parties will negotiate with smaller parties to form coalitions. While
some alliances are established before the election, many of them are negotiated
after the results are announced and continue to shift during a government’s term.
The current ruling coalition, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), does not
command a majority of seats in parliament (as of 31 July, 2013), but it receives
unconditional outside support from a handful parties, which allows it to stay in power.
SLIDE 7 - 1000+ PARTIES PARTIES AND SYMBOLS
India has 6 national parties, 54 regional parties and 1000+ unrecognised parties
The Indian National Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are the only two
truly national parties. Together they accounted for 59 per cent of seats in 2009 (and
47 per cent of votes). Parties with a regional presence won the remaining share.
The Role of Symbols in Indian Elections
Symbols have played a pivotal role in India since its first general election in 1951-52.
At the time, barely a fifth of the population could read or write, so symbols were
introduced on the ballot papers to help the mass of illiterate citizens to cast their
vote. Candidates on the campaign trail had to make sure their supporters knew
which symbol represented their party.
Literacy is now widespread – nearly three quarters of Indians can read or write – but
election symbols are now a deep-rooted part of India’s political tradition, and have
become a powerful tool for political parties to convey their messages.
India’s best-known political symbols, the outstretched hand or palm (hath in Hindi)
and the lotus (or Kamal) – a flower closely associated with the Hindu deity Lakshmi,
the goddess of wealth – belong to its two largest parties, the Congress and the Hindu
nationalist Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).
When new parties emerge onto the scene, they must choose from a list of about 100
“free symbols” available through the election commission. The newest big entrant to
Indian politics, the anti-corruption, Aam Adami Party (AAP) selected the humble
broom, which it said reflected its mission to sweep clean the political system – a
clever choice that captured many voters’ imaginations.
Symbols of the National Parties:
BSP – Elephant
BJP – Lotus
Communist Party of India - Ears of Corn and Sickle
Communist Party of India (Marxist) - Hammer, Sickle and Star
Indian National Congress - Hand
Nationalist Congress Party - Clock
Symbols of State Parties
Some of the symbols of the regional parties include: Car, Bicycle, Grass, Arrow,
Hurricane Lamp, Farmer carrying Paddy on her head, Railway Engine, Arrow, Flower
and Grass Cultivator Cutting Crop, Sun (without rays), Rising Sun, Two leaves ,
Spade & Stoker
SLIDE 8 - CONGRESS – UPA
History
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India’s oldest political party, founded in 1885
Controlled by the “first family” of Indian politics, the Nehru-Gandhi family
From the 1960s many regional parties and the BJP started challenging
INC’s monopoly on power
Following the 2009 national election Congress secured 206 seats in the
Lok Sabha making it the single largest party in the parliament. Congress
leads the governing coalition of parties known as the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA).
The current Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh is a member of the
Congress Party. A renowned economist, he is the only Prime Minister
since Jawaharlal Nehru to return to power after completing a full five-year
term, and the first Sikh to hold the office
Philosophy
 Left-of-centre, pro-poor political platform
 Beginning around 1984 began moving toward the ideological centre.
Party Organisation
 Indira Gandhi created a top-down structure in which party leaders appoint
party officials
 In recent times there has been a push to further democratise the party –
with party elections extended to select new roles.
SLIDE 9 – RAHUL GANDHI
Rahul Gandhi is likely to be Congress Party’s candidate for PM. The party has
appointed him the “lead campaigner” for the election.
Rahul Gandhi was born 19 June 1970.
He is the Vice President of the Indian National Congress party. Gandhi served as a
General Secretary in the All India Congress Committee. He is the second-ranked
member of the Congress Working Committee.
Gandhi comes from the politically influential Nehru–Gandhi family. His late father,
Rajiv Gandhi, had served as the Prime Minister of India and had been President of
the Congress Party. His mother Sonia Gandhi is currently serving as President of the
Congress. He grew up in New Delhi, where his grandmother Indira Gandhi, was
serving as Prime Minister until her assassination in 1984. His father was likewise
assassinated in 1991.
Due to security concerns, Gandhi constantly had to shift schools in his youth. He
studied abroad under a pseudonym.
After obtaining degrees in international relations and philosophy at the universities of
Rollins and Cambridge, Gandhi worked as a management consultant in London. He
then established a Mumbai-based technology outsourcing firm.
The Congress Party does not formally nominate its candidate for Prime Minister
before the election. They argue that a parliamentary election is not like a US style
presidential race. Once the election is over if the Prime Minister will be elected by
the Parliament. In practice, Rahul Gandhi is the Congress Party’s “lead campaigner”
and will be their candidate for PM if they can secure enough votes in the parliament.
The party’s election materials – shown in this slide - present him in this way.
SLIDE 10 – BJP - NDA
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
History and philosophy
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The BJP is the second major political party in India today.
BJP leads the national political grouping the National Democratic Alliance
Key philosophical characteristics: right-leaning, Hindu-nationalist, social
conservatism, self reliance, foreign policy centred on nationalist principles,
neo-liberal economic policy.
First major party to mobilize explicitly on the basis of religious identity
The BJP has campaigned against Muslims as a scapegoat for frustrations.
Traditional supporters
• Urban, lower-middle-class groups
• Base of support widened since mid-1980s beyond Hindu nationalists and
north-central India
In recent times its electoral success has been due to:
• More centralism in its policies
• Has become better organized in its election campaigns
• Carefully selected party cadres
• Clear and respected authority line within the party
• Widened its support base since the mid-1980s beyond Hindu nationalists and
north-central India
Policy
• Economic liberalization and stability
• A universal civil code for all Indians
• A stronger nationalist foreign policy
SLIDE 10 – NARENDRA MODI
Narendra Modi is BJP’s candidate for PM
Narendra Modi was born 17 September 1950.
Modi is the 14th Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat. He is a member of the BJP
and is the party’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 Indian general elections.
Modi was a key strategist for the BJP in Gujarat state election campaigns, and was a
major campaign figure in the 2009 general elections. He first became chief minister
of Gujarat in October 2001. In July 2007, he became the longest-serving Chief
Minister in Gujarat's history. He is currently serving his fourth consecutive term as
Chief Minister.
Modi is described as a Hindu nationalist by media, scholars and himself. He is a
controversial figure both within India and internationally. His administration has been
criticised for the incidents surrounding the 2002 Gujarat violence and race riots. On
the other hand, he is often touted as the most effective public speaker of India’s
politicians. He has been praised for his economic policies, which are credited with
creating an environment for a high rate of economic growth in Gujarat. However, his
administration has also been criticised for failing to make a significant positive impact
upon the human development of the state.
SLIDE 12 - AAM AADMI PARTY (“COMMON MAN PARTY” OR AAP)
AAP is an Indian political party, formally launched on 26 November 2012.
AAP came into existence out of the India against Corruption movement.
The AAP has led several protests since its formation. Among these was a campaign
against an alleged nexus between government and private corporations relating to
price rises for electricity and water in Delhi. Another saw the party demanding justice
for victims of sexual harassment and rape, including the introduction of a stronger
anti-rape law.
The party's first electoral test was in the 2013 Delhi legislative assembly election,
from which it emerged as the second-largest party, winning 28 of the 70 seats. With
no party obtaining an overall majority, the AAP formed a minority government with
conditional support from the Indian National Congress.
In terms of political philosophy and personnel, AAP is a melting pot of left, right and
centre. The party says that it does not have an ideology. This is also a criticism that
is made against the party.
The AAP government in Delhi resigned after just 49 days after it unsuccessfully tried
to introduce a bill to create an anti-corruption ombudsman. The Congress and BJP
were opposed to the Bill. AAP was criticised by Congress and BJP and some media
for failing to transform itself from an activist outfit to a leading political party and
governing body
The coming few months are going to be crucial for the party as it tries to maintain
political momentum. It is planning to contest around 400 seats in the 2014
parliamentary election. For the AAP, the coming elections will demonstrate whether
the party is a one-time phenomenon confined to Delhi only or something greater.
SLIDE 13 – ARVIND KEJRIWAL
Arvind Kejriwal is the leader of the AAP and is likely to be their candidate for
PM in the event the party can lead a coalition into government.
Arvind Kejriwal was born in 1968. He is an Indian politician and former civil servant
who served as the 7th Chief Minister of Delhi from 28 December 2013 to 14
February 2014. He is the leader of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Kejriwal is a
graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur. He worked for the Indian
Revenue Service (IRS) as a Joint Commissioner in the Income Tax Department. He
is known for his efforts to enact and implement the right to information laws and
tackle corruption.
In 2006, Kejriwal received a major award for his involvement in a grassroots
movement using right-to-information legislation in a campaign against corruption.
The same year, after resigning from the IRS, he donated his award money as a
corpus fund to found a non-governmental organization (NGO) dedicated to tackling
corruption.
In 2012, he launched the Aam Aadmi Party, and he defeated Chief Minister Sheila
Dikshit in the 2013 Delhi Legislative Assembly election.
Following the election, he took office as the Chief Minister of Delhi on 28 December
2013. He resigned 49 days later, on 14 February 2014, stating he did so because of
his government's inability to pass his proposed anti-corruption legislation due to a
lack of support from other political parties.
In the 2014 election Kejriwal has chosen to run in Veranasi against Narendra Modi
the BJP’s candidate for PM.
SLIDE 14 - OPINION POLLS
Latest Major Polls
The first three major opinion polls were undertaken in January. The NDTV poll was
undertaken in March.
So far, the opinion polls are giving BJP a strong lead over Congress. Yet whether
this translates to BJP being able to form a new BJP-led government remains to be
seen.
The reliability of opinion polls in India
India is a notoriously difficult country to run opinion polls in. It suffers from the
political biases of the polling agencies and news outlets that produce the polls. A
more serious challenge to reliability comes from operational problems inherent in
India’s mammoth electorate, complex demographics, daunting geography and poor
infrastructure.
The Indian Congress Party and the BJP, the two principal national parties, exert
influence nationwide, but their power has waned in recent decades in favor of
regional parties. These parties generally represent certain caste, linguistic, ethnic or
class groups, groups which themselves are often uniquely in a particular state.
Indeed, India has rarely demonstrated a pan-Indian, national voting pattern. In
general, past elections have tended to turn on local issues and identity politics. While
a few national issues such as inflation, anti-incumbency and national security are
consistently of concern for many Indian voters nationwide, they have tended to play
a secondary role in determining how citizens actually vote. Local politics are still the
name of the game in India; and, unfortunately for the pollsters, Indian local politics
are extremely hard to predict.
SLIDE 15 - ELECTORAL TRENDS IN INDIA
The reducing influence of national parties and the emergence of regional parties is
driven by a number of factors:
1. The first is growth of federalism in India - waves of federalization and
decentralization have seen the power of the states increase in India. This
has meant the locus of political debate has moved towards the states and
diminished the relevance of the national parties at the expense of regional
parties.
2. The second has been the rise of new parties. The increase in voter
participation has given rise to new parties that aim to represent India’s
diverse caste, class, and ethnic groups as well as a growing sense of
regional identity.
These factors have robbed the country’s biggest political formations, the Congress
and BJP, of much of their support. . It means that for Congress and BJP the
brokering of alliances is as important as securing voter support when it comes to
forming government.
All these factors add to the complexity and richness of India’s electoral system and
make the final result very difficult to predict.
SLIDE 16 - THE TOP ISSUES FOR VOTERS
The Lok Foundation undertook a major electoral survey for The Times of India newspaper in
March 2014.
The survey found that across India, 25% of respondents stated economic growth would be
their number one issue in deciding for whom to vote, four percentage points above
corruption. Growth is the number one issue for urban (27%) as well as rural (23%) voters.
Although the conventional wisdom in India holds that price rises are the most influential
economic shaper of voting behaviour, it ranks third (18%).
"Changes in personal family income" is the only other response in the double digits (14%).
Other important governance-related issues such as “law and order” and “access to
government services and programs” was each the primary concern of a modest 7-8% of
voters.
Just 5% of voters care enough about "strong leadership" to make it the prime determinant of
their vote choice.
In the past, analysts have found “identity politics” — religion, caste and community — to be
critical in shaping voter behaviour. Yet the evidence suggests that such parochial matters no
longer dominate, taking instead a backseat to considerations of governance — even in states
where such factors are thought to dominate politics.
The bad news for the Congress led UPA is that economic growth is a particular concern to
those who voted for Congress last time but plan on switching their allegiance to the BJP.
35% of such switchers have marked economic growth as their number one priority.
In the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, corruption is perceived to be a more pressing issue.
SLIDE 17 - OTHER ISSUES
Leadership: Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi
Opinion polls have found that “leadership” is a priority issue for just 5 per cent of
voters. Nonetheless, the media and commentators continue to focus on the leading
campaign figures.
Narendra Modi has mocked Congress for its failure to declare a PM candidate. In
contrast, Congress has argued that it is remaining true to the principles of
parliamentary democracy by leaving it to the parliament to decide who the PM will be
after the election. Congress has designated Rahul Gandhi as its lead campaigner.
Modi is being portrayed by the BJP as the “super-CEO” who can deliver improved
economic growth for India. His opponents portray Modi as a controversial and
divisive anti-Muslim figure. They argue that if Modi succeeds then it would signal the
country’s departure from the model of secular politics which has been a hallmark of
modern India.
The anti-incumbency mood against Congress
There is a strong sense that this is a “change” election. Congress has ruled the
national government for ten years. Recent corruption charges against Congress
together with their length of time in office has created a strong anti incumbency
mood.
The rise of the AAP and anti-corruption sentiment effects both the BJP and
Congress
BJP and Congress do not have only one political enemy to tame; both have to
contend with the AAP.
AAP targets young, urban, middle class voters, placing it in direct competition with
the BJP. Some election watchers predict that even if the AAP manages to get 20 to
30 seats in urban centers across the country, it could significantly damage Modi’s
prospects.
For Congress a rising AAP threatens to engulf the party’s traditional base and
support structure. In the Delhi Assembly elections, the nascent party decimated
Congress and emerged as the second largest political group in the assembly,
reducing the ruling Congress to third place after 15 years in power.
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