Resources TEACHING RESOURCES Part 2 Ginger Holmes Rowell CAUSEweb: Searching by Pedagocial Method Pedagogic Resource Library CAUSEweb, through a partnership with SERC (http://serc.carleton.edu/index.html) has developed a library of pedagogic modules for statistics educators. Each module features a particular pedagogic methodology. Each module describes the what, why, and how of the particular teaching method. SERC vets these modules with pedagogic experts; all pedagogic content is subject to a blind peer review process before it is made live. A growing collection of classroom activities is included within each pedagogic module. The result is an enhanced collection that allows users to seamlessly browse between pedagogic content and classroom activities. Coke vs. Pepsi Taste Test: Experiments and Inference about Cause This lesson plan and activity are based on material from the NSF-funded AIMS Project (Garfield, delMas and Zieffler, 2007). For more information contact Joan Garfield at jbg@umn.edu This material is replicated on a number of sites as part of the SERC Pedagogic Service Project Summary The Coke vs. Pepsi Taste Test Challenge has students design and carry out an experiment to determine whether or not students are able to correctly identify two brands of cola in a blind taste test. In the first stage of the activity students design and conduct the experiment. In the second part of the activity students use Sampling SIM software (freely downloadable from http://www.tc.umn.edu/~delma001/stat_tools/) to simulate and gather information on what would be expected under chance conditions (i.e., if students obtained correct answers only by guessing). The students then compare the observed results to the chance results and make an inference about whether a given student can in fact correctly identify Coke and Pepsi in a blind taste test. Finally, the experiment is critiqued in terms of how well it met the standards for a good experiment. This activity allows students to gain a better understanding of the experimental process and causality through considering control, random assignment, and possible confounding variables. The activity also allows students to Resources begin to understand the process of hypothesis testing by comparing their observed results of the taste test to the results obtained through Sampling SIM (which model would be obtained by chance). Students make an inference about whether particular students in their class can truly tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi by reasoning about how surprising the observed results are compared to the simulated distribution of correct identifications by guessing. The activity also provides an opportunity for discussing generalizability to a population. Learning Goals To learn the characteristics of a well defined experiment. To learn the difference between an experiment and an observational study. To learn to recognize instances of confounding. To learn to understand and recognize instances of experimental control. To learn that randomizing the assignment of treatments protects against confounding and makes cause and effect statements possible. To build the underpinnings of inference. To understand the process of hypothesis testing by comparing the observed results to the results obtained under chance conditions. Context for Use This activity can be used in a unit of introductory statistics on producing data through experiments. It could also be used in a unit on one sample tests of proportions. Description and Teaching Materials This activity takes place in two stages as described below. Roles: Within each group of four students, assign each student to one of the following roles. Tasters--those who think they can tell the difference (blind to test). Runners--those who run cups of cola from room to hall (blind to test). Recorders--they record results of tasters decisions about whether they are tasting Coke or Pepsi. Pourers--remain in the classroom as pourers/observers. The following materials are needed: 10 Dixie cups per group for taste testing 8 additional Dixie cups for clearing the palate Coke and Pepsi (4 cans of each is enough for 8 groups) Recorder slips for each group Coke/Pepsi pourer slips, where each group is given a random order of Coke and Pepsi over 10 trials Sampling SIM software loaded on the computer or another simulation program or applet (see Available Technologies) Copy of Student Handout (Microsoft Word 43kB Feb25 07) Stage One of Activity: Designing and Conducting the Experiment First, students are asked to consider how to design an experiment that will allow them to determine if anyone can correctly identify two different brands of cola in a blind taste test. After a discussion of various methods, a plan is introduced to use in conducting a taste test. Students are asked to self identify who can correctly identify Coke or Pepsi in a blind taste test. Groups are then formed with one of these students in each group to be the tester. Groups of four work best. Each group member has one of the following roles: First, the tasters, the recorders, and the runners will leave the room. The pourers are produce random series of Coke or Pepsi using a coin to determine what the tasters would taste. The pourers will be the only members of the group knowledgeable of the condition. The pourers will pour the appropriate drinks into paper cups, and leave them in a row to be tasted at their table. These people may switch groups when the taste testing begins so they will not know the order of colas to be tested. Next, the runners will bring the first Dixie cups with cola to their group taster. The tasters will taste the drink and make a decision about whether they think it is Coke or Pepsi that they are drinking. The recorder will keep track of the taster's decision. The tasters will cleanse their palettes in between trials by taking a drink of water. Resources Repeat the above process 4 more times for a total of 5 trials. At the end. The results are reveled and the number of correctly identified colas is tallied for each taster. Stage Two of Activity: Analyzing the class data First, students discuss the results, being asked if they think any of the results suggest that a student is doing better than just guessing. They are asked what kind of data would be expected if they were just guessing. This leads to simulating data for the situation of guessing (p = .5, n = 5 trials). Use Sampling SIM (or another simulation program or applet) to simulate the Coke/Pepsi activity, simulating data for 500 trials. Then students can compare the number of correct guesses to this distribution to see if their score is due to chance (in the middle) or surprising (in one of the tails). A final discussion involves critiquing the experiment and talking about what could have made it better (e.g., more tastes). Teaching Notes and Tips Try to make sure that you have one person in each group that thinks they can distinguish between Coke and Pepsi. Try to have students make conjectures about what they would expect before gathering or simulating data. Assessment Have students discuss or write answers to the following questions: How were three elements of a good experiment (random assignment, control, and replication) included or not included in this experiment? Describe any possible sources of confounding in the experiment. Can you generalize the findings of this experiment to all students at this university? Why or why not? References and Resources NSF-Funded AIMS Project (J. Garfield, R. delMas, and A. Zieffler, University of Minnesota) Coke/Pepsi Taste Test – Student Handout This activity is based on a lesson from the NSF-funded AIMS project (Garfield, delMas and Zieffler). Part I: Designing the Study How could you design a study that would determine if someone could actually tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi? Discuss a plan for this and write it down. Carrying out the study The class will share ideas and come up with one design to use in carrying out a taste test. One person in your group will be selected to taste colas and try to identify them correctly. How many times did the taster in your group correctly identify the colas? __________ Part II: Critiquing the Study 1. Was this taste test an experiment or an observational study? Explain. 2. Critique the study on each of the three elements of a good experiment (random assignment, control, and replication). Which were met in our study? Which were not? Explain. 3. What are three ways in which we could improve our study for next time? How would each of these suggestions improve the study? Resources Part III: The Guessing Model 1. What if your taster really couldn’t tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi, but was just guessing? How many times would you expect him/her to correctly guess the correct cola brand? Why? 2. If we replicated the experiment many times, and each time a taster was guessing, then each time the number of correct guesses would be due to change. On average, how many correct guesses would you expect? 3. What would the distribution of correct identifications look like? Sketch a possible picture of these results using dots to represent each total number of correct guesses out of five tastes 4. Could a student correctly identify all five tastes just by guessing? Why or why not? Use Sampling Sim to produce a graph of data for the kinds of results we would get just due to chance (if a person was just guessing). 5. How does the graph of the results that SamplingSIM produced compare with the sketch you created earlier? 6. According to the graph, what it he most likely number of correct responses a taster could come up with just be guessing? 7. What are some unlikely values (the number of correct identifications that don’t occur as often if a student was only guessing)? 8. Where does your taster’s actual result fit on the graph produced by SamplingSIM? In the tails? In the middle? 9. Based on your answer to Question 8, is it likely or unlikely that your taster would have gotten the result he/she did if he/she was just guessing? Explain. Gallery Walk Gallery Walk Compiled by Mark Francek (more info) at Central Michigan University (more info) What is Gallery Walk? --a discussion technique for active engagement Gallery Walk gets students out of their chairs and actively involves them in synthesizing important concepts, in consensus building, in writing, and in public speaking. In Gallery Walk teams rotate around the classroom, composing answers to questions as well as reflecting upon the answers given by other groups. Questions are posted on charts or just pieces of paper located in different parts of the classroom. Each chart or "station" has its own question that relates to an important class concept. The technique closes with a oral presentation or "report out" in which each group synthesizes comments to a particular question. learn more here Why use Gallery Walk? --promotes higher order thinking, oral/written presentation skills, and team building Gallery Walk is flexible and has many benefits. Gallery Walk can be organized for a simple fifteen minute ice breaker or for a week long project involving graded oral and written reports. The technique encourages students to speak and write the language of earth science rather than just hearing it from the instructor. In addition to addressing a variety of cognitive skills involving analysis, evaluation, and synthesis, Gallery Walk has the additional advantage of promoting cooperation, listening skills, and team building. learn more here How to use Gallery Walk? --student teams rotate between posted charts In Gallery Walk student teams rotate to provide bulleted answers to questions posted on charts arranged around the classroom. After three to five minutes at a chart or "station" the team rotates to the next question. Gallery Walk works best with open ended questions, that is, when a problem, concept, issue, or debate can be analyzed from several different perspectives. In this section find a variety of instructional resources such as preparing students for this technique, a step by step guide for using Gallery Walk, evaluation rubrics, and challenges in implementing the technique. learn more here Gallery Walk examples --a variety of sample questions for a variety of earth science topics Find examples of Gallery Walk questions for the following categories: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Climate System, Earth History and Time, Earth Surface, Energy and Cycles, Human Dimensions, Hydrosphere and Cryosphere, Oceans, Solar System, Solid Earth. Complete sample exercises are also included for a Gallery Walk involving weather map analysis and soil morphology. learn more here References on Gallery Walk Find journal and web references relating to Gallery Walk. learn more here TI Activities Exchange Collections: TI – Activities Exchange http://education.ti.com/educationportal/activityexchange/activity_list.do TI Activities Exchange “Snail Mail” Postal Rate History Submitted to the TI-Exchange by Ann Conway, retrieved October 5, 2009. (http://education.ti.com/educationportal/activityexchange/Activity.do?cid=US&aId=8419) Postal rates have been figured by the ounce since July 1, 1885. Since then, the rates have been: November 3, 1917 July 1, 1919 July 6, 1932 August 1, 1958 January 7, 1963 January 7, 1968 May 16, 1971 March 2, 1974 December 31, 1975 May 29, 1978 March 22, 1981 November 1, 1981 February 17, 1985 April 3, 1988 February 3, 1991 January 1, 1995 January 10, 1999 January 7, 2001 June 30, 2002 January 3, 2006 3 cents 2 cents 3 cents 4 cents 5 cents 6 cents 8 cents 10 cents 13 cents 15 cents 18 cents 20 cents 22 cents 25 cents 29 cents 32 cents 33 cents 34 cents 37 cents 39 cents Based on this historical data, develop a model and predict the cost of mailing a one ounce first class letter in 2015. EXPLAIN your reasoning. a) Model: b) Cost c) Reasoning Resources Finding and Using Real Data: Examples of Data Sources Workshop on Teaching Introductory Statistics Myrtle Beach, SC Friday, October 23, 2009 Ginger Holmes Rowell, Middle Tennessee State University Not “Ready” American FactFinder http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/ Bureau of Justice Statistics http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/ Centers for Disease Control http://www.cdc.gov/ FedStats http://www.fedstats.gov/ National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research http://www.unc.edu/depts/nccsi/ Olympic Games Results http://www.sporting-heroes.net/athleticsheroes/stats_athletics/olympics/olympics.asp “Ready” The Data and Story Library http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/ Chance Data Sets http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/data.html Examples and Their Data Sets http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/Examples.html JASA Data Sets http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/jasadata/ JSE Data Archive http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/jse_data_archive.html NIST Data Archives http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/strd/general/dataarchive.html Virtual Laboratories in Probability and Statistics: Data Sets http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/data/index.xhtml Real Time Online Hands-on Activities http://stat.cst.cmich.edu/statact/real_time/online_analysis/data_download.html “Ready with Activities” DIG Stat Activities http://www.cvgs.k12.va.us/DIGSTATS/Gmain.html Statistical Education Resource Kit http://www.stat.psu.edu/old_resources/bydata.htm Data Cleaning Assignment http://academic.csuohio.edu/holcombj/clean/cleaningassignment.htm Explanatory Style and Athletic Performance http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/Swimming/Swimming.html Resources Online Resources: A Few Examples by Resource Type Workshop on Teaching Introductory Statistics Myrtle Beach, SC Ginger Holmes Rowell, Middle Tennessee State University Collection Rossman/Chance Applet Collection by A. Rossman, B. Chance, F. Garcia & C. Lima http://www.rossmanchance.com/applets/ Statistical Java by C. Anderson-Cook, s. Dorai-Raj, T. Robinson, B. Noble http://www.causeweb.org/repository/statjava/ The Data and Story Library by M. Hutcheson, M. Meyer, C. Olson, P. Velleman, & J. Walker http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/ Electronic Encyclopedia of Statistical Examples and Exercises, W.H. Freeman & Co. http://www.whfreeman.com/eesee/eesee.html Lecture and Lab Things by D. Howell http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/More_Stuff/ClassLab.html Rice Virtual Laboratories in Statistics by D. Lane http://onlinestatbook.com/rvls.html ARTIST by J. Garfield, B. Chance, R. delMas https://app.gen.umn.edu/artist/ Case Study Instructor Reputation and Teacher Ratings by D. Lane http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/case_studies/instructor_reputation/index.html Physical Strength and Job Performance Case Study by D. Lane http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~lane/case_studies/physical_strength/index.html UCLA Statistics Case Studies by UCLA Department of Statistics http://www.stat.ucla.edu/cases/ Markov vs. Markov: Divorce by the Numbers by C. Rump http://ublib.buffalo.edu/libraries/projects/cases/markov/markov.html Engineering Statistics Handbook Case Studies Edited by C. Croarkin and P. Tobias http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section4/eda42.htm Drill and Practice or Quizzes Assessment Builder by R. DelMas, J. Garfield & B. Chance https://app.gen.umn.edu/artist/assessment_builder_intro.html Biometry: Statistics for Ecology - Self Test by A. Georges http://aerg.canberra.edu.au/envirostats/bm/selftest.htm Design Case Study: Planning a Study by A. Rossman & B. Chance http://statweb.calpoly.edu/chance/inspire/salk.doc Practice Questions for Business Statistics by B. Schott http://www2.gsu.edu/~dscbms/ibs/qcontent.html Statistics and Data Analysis for Public Policy and Sociology - Quizzes by D. Stangl http://www.stat.duke.edu/~dalene/sta110/quizzes/ Reference Material Engineering Statistics Handbook Edited by C. Croarkin and P. Tobias http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/index.htm Statistical Engineering by C. Annis http://www.statisticalengineering.com/index.html Statistical Literacy (http://www.statlit.org) Standardizing http://www.statlit.org/Standardizing.htm Resources British Medical Journal: Statistics at Square One, 9th Edition, revised by M. Campbell, http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/collections/statsbk/ Raw Data Short’s Parallax of the Sun Data by J. Short on K. Siegrist’s website http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/data/Short.xhtml Histogram of Coastal Waters, original work by Central Virginia Governor's School students A. Sliva (Class of '01), E. Hildreth, M. O'Callaghan, and A. Yu (Class of 2002). http://www.cvgs.k12.va.us/DIGSTATS/main/graphic/a_coastal_waters.htm Diamond Ring Pricing Using Linear Regression by S. Chu, http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v4n3/datasets.chu.html One-way ANOVA of PTSD Data of Foa et al. (1991) by D. Howell http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/FoaFolder/Foa_Anova.html Tutorials Sampling Distribution of the Mean Tutorial by WISE Team, D. Berger, Project Director http://wise.cgu.edu/sdmmod/index.asp Random Variables Chapter of the DAU STAT Refresher by Center for Engineering, George Mason University http://cs.gmu.edu/cne/modules/dau/prob/randomvars/randomvars_frm.html SPSS Tutorial – t tests in SPSS by L. Little http://courses.washington.edu/stat217/218tutorial1.html Internal Validity Tutorial by D. Polson, C. Ng, and L. Grant. Supported by the Center for Psycholoyg, Athabasca Univeristy, http://psych.athabascau.ca/html/Validity/index.shtml Lecture/Presentation Do You Hear What I Hear? by NCTM Illuminations http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?ID=L489 Probability, Genetics, and the Human Condition (Day 2) by R.Annis, M.Blundin, E.Greiling, G.Layman, A.Roussy, S.Shirack, S.Harper, M.Timmerman http://teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/lessonplans/genetics/day2-gen/home.html Boxplot Analysis of Cricket Data original work by Central Virginia Governor's School students J. Edgar and M. King (Class of '99) http://www.cvgs.k12.va.us/DIGSTATS/main/graphic/a_3cri.html Against All Odds Inside Statistics Online Video Series by the Consortium for Mathematics and Its Applications and Chedd-Angier http://www.learner.org/resources/series65.html Statistical Education Resource Kit: Probability (Lecture Notes) by H. McGrath http://www.stat.psu.edu/old_resources/ClassNotes/hrm_06/index.htm Lecture Demonstration Normal Distribution, Interactive Statistics by Lind, Marchal, Wathen, 12Ed. http://highered.mcgrawhill.com/sites/dl/free/0072868244/124727/NormalDistribution.html Time-Axis Fallacy and Bayes Theorem by R. Annis, M. Blundin, E. Greiling, G. Layman, A. Roussy, S. Shirack, S. Harper, M. Timmerman http://teacherlink.org/content/math/interactive/probability/lessonplans/bayes/home.html Normal Distribution PowerPoint Slides by L. Simon http://www.stat.psu.edu/old_resources/ClassNotes/ljs_08/sld001.htm Games (Money Hall, Poker Hands, Correlations) by the CUWU Statistics Program http://www.stat.uiuc.edu/courses/stat100/cuwu/Games.html Resources Laboratory Activity Star Library Resource: Regression, Residuals, Why? by J. Miller http://www.causeweb.org/repository/StarLibrary/activities/miller2001/ How Fair is Your Die, from Mrs. Smart’s Homepage http://www.lhs.logan.k12.ut.us/~jsmart/fairdice.htm. ANOVA on Hardness Data original work by Central Virginia Governor's School student S. Sims (Class of '05). http://www.cvgs.k12.va.us/DIGSTATS/main/inferant/a_viton.htm Bernoulli Trials by K. Siegrist http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/bernoulli/index.xhtml Homework Assignment Introduction to Hypothesis Testing – The Z-Test by D. Berger, C. Aberson, M. Healy, V. Romero and D. Kyle http://wise.cgu.edu/hypothesis/ Project #1: Data Summary by J. Holcomb http://academic.csuohio.edu/holcombj/projects/ncsum.pdf Practice Problems t-tests by L. Woolf http://www.webster.edu/~woolflm/ttest.html Data Cleaning Assignment by J. Holcomb http://academic.csuohio.edu/holcombj/clean/cleaningassignment.htm Data Source MSTE Data Archive by the Office for Mathematics, Science and Technology Education, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign http://www.mste.uiuc.edu/malcz/DATA/ARCHIVE.html Quantitative Environmental Learning Project by G. Langkamp and J. Hull http://www.seattlecentral.edu/qelp/Data.html Statistics Course Datasets from UCLA Researchers http://www.stat.ucla.edu/projects/datasets/ Villanova Nursing Research Dataset Archive, maintained by Tom Short http://www.csc.villanova.edu/~short/MATC/ Simulations/Animations/Applets The Central Limit Theorem by C. Anderson-Cook, s. Dorai-Raj, T. Robinson, B. Noble http://www.causeweb.org/repository/statjava/ Confidence Intervals, Interactive Statistics 12 Ed. by Lind, Marchal, Wathen http://highered.mcgrawhill.com/sites/dl/free/0072868244/124727/est_conApp.html Correlation by C. Anderson-Cook, s. Dorai-Raj, T. Robinson, B. Noble http://www.causeweb.org/repository/statjava/ Power of a Hypothesis Test Applet by R. Ogden http://www.stat.sc.edu/~ogden/javahtml/power/power.html Buffon’s Needle by C. Stanton http://www.math.csusb.edu/faculty/stanton/probstat/buffon.html Understanding ANOVA Visually by Thomas Malloy http://www.psych.utah.edu/stat/introstats/anovaflash.html Sampling SIM by B.Chance, J. Garfield, B. delMas http://www.tc.umn.edu/~delma001/stat_tools/software.htm Analysis Tools StatCrunch by W. West http://www.statcrunch.com/