Disney (DIS) Karen Piane 5/4/07 Price: $35.85 P/E: 17.28 EV/EBITDA: 9.912 Market Cap: 73.44B Company Overview From Yahoo and Google Finance The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company operates in four segments: Media Networks, Parks and Resorts, Studio Entertainment and Consumer Products. The Media Networks segment includes a domestic broadcast television network, domestic television stations, cable/satellite networks and international broadcast operations, television production and distribution, domestic broadcast radio networks and stations, and Internet and mobile operations. The Parks and Resorts segment generates revenues predominately from the sale of admissions to the theme parks, room nights at the hotels, and rentals at the resort properties. The Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video programming, musical recordings and live-stage plays. The Consumer Products segment partners with licensees, manufacturers, publishers and retailers worldwide to design, promote and sell a variety of products based on Disney characters and other intellectual property. Media Networks: ABC television Network and its Cable Networks such as ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPNEWS, Disney Channel, International Disney Channels, Toon Disney, Lifetime Television, A&E, ABC Family, The History Channel, E! Entertainment Television, A&E International, Lifetime Movie Network, Lifetime Real Women, Jetix Europe, Jetix Latin America, SOAPnet, Style, The Biography Channel and History International ABC Radio Network, the ESPN Radio Network, and the Radio Disney Network (the Radio Networks). Internet Websites and products like ABC.com, ABCNEWS.com, Disney.com and ESPN.com. These Internet operations derive revenue from a combination of advertising and sponsorships, subscription services and e-commerce activities. Parks and Resorts Disney owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort and Disney Cruise Line in Florida, the Disneyland Resort in California and ESPN Zone facilities in several states. The Walt Disney Company manages and has effective ownership interests of 51% and 43%, respectively, in the Disneyland Resort Paris and Hong Kong Disneyland, which opened in September 2005. The Company also licenses the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort in Japan. Studio Entertainment The Studio Entertainment segment produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video programming, musical recordings and live-stage plays. The Company distributes produced and acquired films (including its film and television library) to the theatrical, home entertainment, pay-per-view, video-on-demand, pay television and free-to-air television markets. Consumer Products The Consumer Products segment develops new intellectual property within its publishing and interactive gaming divisions. The Company also engages in retail and online distribution of products based on its characters and films through The Disney Store and DisneyShopping.com, respectively. The Disney Store is owned and operated in Europe, and is franchised in North America and Japan. Items for purchase include stationery, food, health, beauty, apparel, toys, consumer electronics, home furnishings and home decor. Management Robert A. Iger President and Chief Executive Officer Appointed Oct. 1, 2005 In 1974 he began career at ABC. During his time there, ABC became a leader in broadcast television and expanded into numerous cable and related ventures. In 2000 Iger became Chief Operating Officer of The Walt Disney Company. Although Iger has only been President and CEO for a short period of time, he has already had a large positive impact on the company. This can especially be seen by Disney’s recent acquisition of Pixar. Iger has been noted as having a better understanding of delegating power and as a result all of the divisions should have more autonomy and should hopefully prosper because of it. Thomas O. Staggs Chief Financial Officer Appointed January 2000 He oversees the company's worldwide finance organization, corporate strategy and development, brand management, acquisitions, corporate alliances, investor relations, treasury and risk management activities, controller functions, information systems, corporate outreach, real estate and taxes. He has played a large role in the recent joint ventures and corporate transactions, including the acquisitions of Capital Cities/ABC and Pixar. He has been with Disney since 1990 and was recently named one of America’s best CFOs and the top CFO in the Entertainment Industry by Institutional Investor Magazine. Competition Competitor Company Description News Corporation (NWS-A) Diversified international media/entertainment company. Filmed entertainment, television, cable network programming, direct broadcast satellite television, magazines, newspapers, book publishing. Dreamworks Animation (DWA) It focuses on the development and production of computer generated feature films in the US. It produces them for theatrical, home entertainment, and television markets. Time Warner Inc. (TWX) Media/entertainment company that operates in 5 segments: AOL, Cable, Filmed Entertainment, Networks, and Publishing. Implications for DIS A large competitor of Disney’s due to its operations in similar segments. Directly competes with Disney’s animated films. Has been extremely successful with movies such as Shrek. Could challenge Walt Disney’s dominance especially in television and merchandising. DIS NWS.A DWA TWX PE Ratio 17.28 17.53 18.75 20.17 EV/EBITDA 9.912 12.46 19.126 9.858 Market Cap 73.44B 69.26B 3.13B 80.59B Financials In 2006 Disney saw record revenues, record cash flow and record net earnings in addition to operating growth in each of its 4 segments Revenue reached an all time high of $34 billion which is a 7% increase over the previous year. Earnings per share increased by 34% to $1.64 showing the growth of each business. Valuation Key metric DIS Comparison to industry Comparison to S&P 500 PE Ratio 17.28 24.22 20.28 PE Ratio (high- last 5 years) 143.09 82.31 36.34 PE Ratio (low- last 5 years) 16.59 16.49 14.81 15.71 34.29 34.85 Price to Free Cash Flow Disney’s relatively low PE ratio suggests that the company is undervalued and the low P/FCF indicates that Disney is cheap. Investment Opportunities Acquisition of Pixar in 2006. According to research performed by Disney, Pixar had become the chosen brand of excellence for mothers with children below age 12. Therefore the acquisition appears to have been a smart move on Disney’s part. This year Cars was very successful but with Pixar on board there is a lot of potential for growth in Disney’s animated films. This past year Disney began better establishing itself in emerging international markets like China, Russia, and India. In India Disney acquired leading Indian children’s channel Hungama, and an equity interest in UTV Softwar, (integrated media company specializing in Indian filmed entertainment and television production). In Latin America Disney produced local versions of High School Musical and Desperate Housewives. There are plans to expand Disney’s presence on television in Russia and at the same time leverage their retail, theatrical and new media sectors. In 2007, the company is determined to continue allocating resources to these areas. Specifically, they expect to increase capital expenditure, focusing mostly on Theme Parks, and digital initiatives in media networks. Iger commented that there’s not a market in the world they can’t enter and not be successful. He has high ambitions for expansion. As people continue to buy higher quality electronics, Disney should see a lot of the benefits through an increase in consumption. As evidence of this, last quarter 130 million DVD’s were purchased (which was much more than expected). There are also small projects popping up all over the place. o Disney is beefing up Family.com. The site will now include a ParentPedia (play on Wikipedia) and will offer the ability for users to create private and public groups very similar to MySpace. o Disney Mobile- launched in 2006- 1st mobile phone service for kids that gives parental control. Though it has been launched there is still a lot of growth potential as Disney will soon turn focus more on marketing/developing the service. o Disney recently launched Disney princess inspired bridal gowns. They range in the prices of $1,100 to $3,500. They will be available in boutiques in North America, Japan, and Europe starting in June. The different Disney princesses inspired the dresses. The growth of media companies is really dependent on creativity. Recently, Disney seems to be at the forefront of creative projects. Investment Risks If there is a downturn in the economy, the media industry is often one of the first areas to suffer. However, in times of economic stress Disney should still perform better than its competitors because of its optimistic nature and focus on children. The population is getting older and the birth rate is declining. Although this is true, Disney has been working towards expanding its demographics. Its resorts have been developing more adult friendly features such as elaborate golf courses, adult only areas, and better wine selections. Disney is attempting to make its parks into an affair that is appealing to children, parents, and grandparents. Investment Recommendation Although media companies are risky, Disney has proven itself to be a consistently strong company with an incredible brand name. Following its rapid growth in the late 1990’s, Disney hit a dry spell and has been trying to climb back up ever since. In the last few years Disney has been successful. It has been growing and expanding at a consistent rate. I believe now is the absolute perfect time to buy. Disney has been around so long that many do not expect it to surge forward once again. Yet at this moment Disney has a great combination of management, creativity, financial health and the key insight in order to break expectations by bursting through and bringing significant growth to the company. My recommendation is to buy at the current price of $35.85 with a target price of $43. INCOME STATEMENT All numbers in thousands View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data PERIOD ENDING 30-Sep-06 1-Oct-05 30-Sep-04 Total Revenue 34,285,000 31,944,000 30,752,000 Cost of Revenue 28,807,000 27,837,000 - 5,478,000 4,107,000 30,752,000 Research Development - - - Selling General and Administrative - - 26,704,000 6,000 64,000 Gross Profit Operating Expenses Non Recurring (18,000) Others - - - Total Operating Expenses - - - 5,496,000 4,101,000 3,984,000 114,000 491,000 12,000 6,153,000 4,592,000 4,368,000 706,000 605,000 629,000 Income Before Tax 5,447,000 3,987,000 3,739,000 Income Tax Expense 1,890,000 1,241,000 1,197,000 Operating Income or Loss Income from Continuing Operations Total Other Income/Expenses Net Earnings Before Interest And Taxes Interest Expense Minority Interest Net Income From Continuing Ops (183,000) (177,000) (197,000) 3,374,000 2,569,000 2,345,000 Discontinued Operations - - - Extraordinary Items - - - Effect Of Accounting Changes - Other Items - - - 3,374,000 2,533,000 2,345,000 - - - $3,374,000 $2,533,000 $2,345,000 Non-recurring Events Net Income Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments Net Income Applicable To Common Shares (36,000) - BALANCE SHEET All numbers in thousands View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data PERIOD ENDING 30-Sep-06 1-Oct-05 30-Sep-04 Assets Current Assets Cash And Cash Equivalents 2,411,000 1,723,000 2,042,000 - - - Net Receivables 5,299,000 5,334,000 5,330,000 Inventory 1,109,000 1,136,000 1,259,000 743,000 652,000 738,000 Total Current Assets 9,562,000 8,845,000 9,369,000 Long Term Investments 1,815,000 1,226,000 1,292,000 Property Plant and Equipment 17,167,000 16,968,000 22,420,000 Goodwill 22,505,000 16,974,000 16,966,000 8,142,000 8,158,000 2,815,000 - - - 807,000 987,000 1,040,000 - - - 59,998,000 53,158,000 53,902,000 Accounts Payable 5,917,000 5,339,000 5,623,000 Short/Current Long Term Debt 2,682,000 2,310,000 4,093,000 Other Current Liabilities 1,611,000 1,519,000 1,343,000 Total Current Liabilities 10,210,000 9,168,000 11,059,000 Long Term Debt 11,135,000 10,157,000 9,395,000 Other Liabilities 2,516,000 3,945,000 3,619,000 Deferred Long Term Liability Charges 2,974,000 2,430,000 2,950,000 Minority Interest 1,343,000 1,248,000 798,000 - - - 28,178,000 26,948,000 27,821,000 - - - Short Term Investments Other Current Assets Intangible Assets Accumulated Amortization Other Assets Deferred Long Term Asset Charges Total Assets Liabilities Current Liabilities Negative Goodwill Total Liabilities Stockholders' Equity Misc Stocks Options Warrants Redeemable Preferred Stock - - - Preferred Stock - - - Common Stock 22,377,000 13,288,000 12,447,000 Retained Earnings 20,630,000 17,775,000 15,732,000 Treasury Stock (11,179,000) Capital Surplus Other Stockholder Equity (8,000) (4,281,000) (572,000) (1,862,000) (236,000) Total Stockholder Equity 31,820,000 26,210,000 26,081,000 Net Tangible Assets $1,173,000 $1,078,000 $6,300,000 CASH FLOW All numbers in thousands View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data PERIOD ENDING Net Income 30-Sep-06 1-Oct-05 30-Sep-04 3,374,000 2,533,000 2,345,000 Depreciation 1,436,000 1,339,000 1,210,000 Adjustments To Net Income 1,164,000 752,000 866,000 (157,000) (115,000) (135,000) 237,000 Operating Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In Changes In Accounts Receivables Changes In Liabilities (78,000) 277,000 Changes In Inventories (63,000) 22,000 (84,000) Changes In Other Operating Activities (52,000) (85,000) (89,000) Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities 6,058,000 4,269,000 4,370,000 Capital Expenditures (1,299,000) (1,823,000) (1,427,000) Investments 1,154,000 Investing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In Other Cashflows from Investing Activities Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities - (53,000) (82,000) 132,000 (4,000) (227,000) (1,691,000) (1,484,000) (519,000) (490,000) (430,000) (5,565,000) (1,708,000) (68,000) (699,000) (2,203,000) Financing Activities, Cash Flows Provided By or Used In Dividends Paid Sale Purchase of Stock Net Borrowings Other Cash Flows from Financing Activities Total Cash Flows From Financing Activities Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes Change In Cash and Cash Equivalents 941,000 (5,143,000) $688,000 (2,897,000) ($319,000) (2,701,000) $185,000