Chapter 5
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5/31 edits Need example LMP maps for the same hour in lieu of the maps on page 5-2 Add Figure 5-5 table on opportunity costs under different assumptions Need discussion of low hanging fruit Chapter 5 2008 Base Case Using the assumptions described above, the model derived locational marginal prices for different bubbles within the Western Interconnection. (See page 3-3.) Differences in locational marginal prices between the bubbles, indicates transmission congestion. Such price differences provides a useful tool for screening the evaluation of potential transmission expansion projects, but is not sufficient by itself to determine if such projects are economically justified. Location marginal prices vary by time and location. The maps in Figure 5-1 illustrate how location marginal prices change. The maps are for selected hours throughout the year. Blue indicates low marginal prices; red high marginal prices. 5-1 Figure 5-1 Location Marginal Prices MAY WANT TO USE DIFFERENT MAPS USING SAME HOURS June 12, 2008 hr 06 $4 Gas Jan 24, 2008 hr 06 $4 Gas PEACE RIVER GM S500 PEACE PCN500 CANYON RUTH LAKE MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 PEACE RIVER LITTLE SMOKY GM S500 LOUISE CREEK PEACE CANYON PCN500 RUTH LAKE PRINCE RUPERT WILLISTON TELKWA MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 SKEENA GLENANNAN N. BARRHEAD N. CALDER KITMAT LOUISE CREEK N. BARRHEAD N. CALDER BARLOW BICKERDIKE BATTLE RIVER BAT RV79 SHEERNESS BAT RV79 REVELSTOKE M ETI S644 KELLY LAKE LANGDON MERIDIAN INVERMERE CLAYBURN EMPRESS WARE JTN. NATAL ROSEDALE INGLEDOW LANGDON DUNSMUIR PEIGAN ARNOTT JENNER W. BROOKS CUSTER GRAND COULEE L E G E N D: N. LETHBRIDGE BOUNDARY CHIEF JOE MONROE GRAND COULEE ECHO LAKE 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV NELWAY CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH NOXON BELL 230KV HOT SPRINGS RAVER 115-161KV SCHULTZ OLYMPIA PAUL / CENTRALIA HUNGRY HORSE TAFT VANTAGE MOSCOW CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH ASHE ROSS MOSCOW LOW MON HANFORD MIDWAY THE DALLES CROSSOVER ENTERPRISE SLATT HELLS CANYON LAGRANDE BOARDMAN BUCKLEY COLSTRIP BILLINGS YELLOWTAIL OXBOW BROWNLEE SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS MARION COLSTRIP GRIZZLY DILLON LANGE CROSSOVER OREGON BASIN ONTARIO LANE ALVEY AMPS CALDWELL BROWNLEE SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS DILLON THERMOPOLIS BOISE JEFFERSON SUMMER LAKE DIXONVILLE WYODAK RESTON BUFFALO K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN GRANTS PASS DAVE JOHNSTON ATLANTIC CITY MUSTANG JEFFERSON LARAMIE RIVER TREASURETON WEED JCT SUMMER LAKE RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN HILL TOP WARNER CASCADE ATLANTIC CITY NAUGHTON WARNER BORDERTOWN BORDERTOWN BONANZA IPP AUSTIN RIFLE HUNTINGTON PAWNEE (530 MW) HUNTER SIGURD VACADIXON MONTROSE TRACY BONANZA IPP AUSTIN SMOKY HILL DILLON CURECANTI MOSS LANDING LOS BANOS COMANCHE NAVAJO HUNTER GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN MONTROSE GATES CURECANTI MIDWAY DANIELS PARK MALTA HUNTINGTON SIGURD PINTO RED BUTTE RIFLE PAVANT PONCHA TESLA MONA GONDER MACHACEK TRACY DANIELS PARK MALTA PAVANT STORY VALMONT TRACY FT CHURCHILL VACADIXON PAWNEE (530 MW) SMOKY HILL DILLON MONA GONDER MACHACEK HAYDEN CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD DRUM STORY TRACY FT CHURCHILL DRUM AULT CRAIG TERMINAL 90 SOUTH TABLE MT SIDNEY AULT VALMONT CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD TABLE MT SIDNEY ARCHER FLAMING GORGE OLINDA HAYDEN 90 SOUTH STEGAL PLATTE ROCK SPRINGS NAUGHTON BEN LOMOND CRAIG TERMINAL LARAMIE RIVER BRIDGER MONUMENT HUMBOLDT VALMY (562 MW) HILL TOP ROUND MT ARCHER FLAMING GORGE OLINDA MUSTANG TREASURETON WEED JCT CASCADE ROCK SPRINGS BEN LOMOND ROUND MT MIDPOINT MALIN BOYLE COPCO CASPER SPENCE CAPT JACK LONE PINE PLATTE MONUMENT HUMBOLDT VALMY (562 MW) DAVE JOHNSTON BORAH STEGAL BRIDGER RESTON GRANTS PASS CASPER SPENCE MIDPOINT MALIN BOYLE COPCO THERMOPOLIS BOISE BORAH CAPT JACK LONE PINE WEST HILL AMPS RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT LANGE OREGON BASIN ONTARIO BURNS CALDWELL WEST HILL BURNS YELLOWTAIL OXBOW GRIZZLY WYODAK BUFFALO BILLINGS HELLS CANYON LAGRANDE MARION ALVEY DIXONVILLE CUSTER BROADVIEW TOWNSEND ANACONDA CUSTER BROADVIEW TOWNSEND ANACONDA ENTERPRISE ROUNDUP BOARDMAN OSTRANDER MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON LOLO McNARY (1169 MW) SLATT BUCKLEY MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON McNARY (1169 MW) OVANDO DWORSHAK HATWAI LOW GRANITE WALLA WALLA JOHN DAY OSTRANDER OVANDO DWORSHAK LOLO WALLA WALLA JOHN DAY ROUNDUP PEARL N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE ASHE ROSS PEARL THE DALLES KEELER HATWAI LOW GRANITE ALLSTON GREAT FALLS TAFT ALLSTON N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE BEAVER HOT SPRINGS BENEWAH VANTAGE BEAVER LOW MON HANFORD MIDWAY NOXON BELL SCHULTZ PAUL / CENTRALIA GREAT FALLS BENEWAH LIBBY ECHO LAKE RAVER OLYMPIA 115-161KV LIBBY PEIGAN CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH 230KV HUNGRY HORSE NATAL ROSEDALE CUSTER SAHTLAM CHIEF JOE MONROE INVERMERE CLAYBURN ARNOTT 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV NELWAY SAHTLAM MERIDIAN INGLEDOW KEELER L E G E N D: N. LETHBRIDGE CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH BOUNDARY NICOLA MALASPINA DUNSMUIR LANE JENNER W. BROOKS NICOLA MALASPINA JANET SARCEE ASHTON CREEK EMPRESS WARE JTN. CHEEKYE GOLD RIVER SHEERNESS REVELSTOKE CHEEKYE JANET SARCEE ASHTON CREEK SAVONA METISKOW RED DEER SAVONA M ETI S644 RED DEER KELLY LAKE BRIDGE RIVER BATTLE RIVER BENALTO MICA BRIDGE RIVER METISKOW BENALTO MICA 100 MILE HOUSE ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS BRAZEAU GOLD RIVER LAMOUREUX SODA CREEK CLOVERBAR EAST EDMONTON BICKERDIKE SODA CREEK 100 MILE HOUSE ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS BRAZEAU LAMOUREUX WABAMUN SUNDANCE KEMANO EAST EDMONTON MARGUERITE LAKE WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH CLOVERBAR SUNDANCE KEMANO GLENANNAN KITMAT BARLOW WABAMUN WILLISTON TELKWA SKEENA MARGUERITE LAKE WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH LITTLE SMOKY PRINCE RUPERT PONCHA SAN JUAN FOUR CORNERS MARKETPLACE OJO MIDWAY MCCULLOUGH COMANCHE TAOS MEAD TESLA PINTO RED BUTTE MOENKOPI MIDWAY NORTON EL DORADO DIABLO B-A MOSS LANDING P.E.G.S. LOS BANOS AMBROSIA MOJAVE ADELANTO NAVAJO DAVIS GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN LEUPP MARKETPLACE FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA VINCENT TAOS MEAD PARKER EAGLE MT. LUGO RINALDI MOENKOPI ROUND VALLEY CAMINO SYLMAR OJO MCCULLOUGH MIDWAY NORTON DEVERS MIRALOMA SERRANO PRESCOTT B-A SPRINGERVILLE VALLEY P.E.G.S. DAVIS WEST MESA MIGUEL LEUPP WESTWING PALO VERDE PINNACLE PEAK NORTH GILA FLAGSTAFF SEMPRA TIJUANA CHOLLA PARKER EL CENTRO MCKINLEY LEUPP ROUND VALLEY CAMINO EAGLE MT. LUGO GREENLEE LIBERTY SILVER KING SAGUARO LA ROSITA ARROYO LUNA SOUTH CIPRES SPRINGERVILLE RMATS TORTOLITA SAN LUIS HIDALGO LOMAS PRESCOTT VALLEY ARTESIA AMRAD KYRENE MEXICALI METROPOLI JUAREZ GILA INTERGEN BLACKWATER CORONADO YAVAPAI BLYTHE DEVERS MIRALOMA SERRANO ELCENTRO IMPERIAL VALLEY SELIGMAN VICTORVILLE VINCENT RINALDI TABLE MESA KNOB AMBROSIA MOJAVE ADELANTO SYLMAR BLACKWATER CORONADO YAVAPAI BLYTHE EL DORADO DIABLO MCKINLEY LEUPP VICTORVILLE GATES WEST MESA SELIGMAN SAN JUAN FOUR CORNERS NEWMAN VAIL BICKNELL CALIENTE DIABLO TABLE MESA KNOB MIGUEL WESTWING ELCENTRO IMPERIAL VALLEY EL CENTRO PALO VERDE PINNACLE PEAK NORTH GILA SEMPRA TIJUANA GREENLEE LIBERTY ARTESIA AMRAD GILA INTERGEN METROPOLI JUAREZ KYRENE SILVER KING SAGUARO MEXICALI LA ROSITA ARROYO LUNA TORTOLITA SAN LUIS SOUTH HIDALGO LOMAS CIPRES NEWMAN VAIL BICKNELL CALIENTE DIABLO 2008 Base Case RMATS 2008 Base Case 37 30 June 12, 2008 hr 12 $4 Gas Jan 24, 2008 hr 10 $4 Gas PEACE RIVER GM S500 PEACE PCN500 CANYON RUTH LAKE MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 PEACE RIVER LITTLE SMOKY GM S500 LOUISE CREEK PEACE CANYON PCN500 RUTH LAKE PRINCE RUPERT MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 WILLISTON TELKWA SKEENA GLENANNAN N. BARRHEAD N. CALDER LOUISE CREEK KITMAT BARLOW LAMOUREUX WABAMUN WILLISTON TELKWA SKEENA N. BARRHEAD N. CALDER EAST EDMONTON MARGUERITE LAKE WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH CLOVERBAR SUNDANCE KEMANO GLENANNAN MARGUERITE LAKE WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH LITTLE SMOKY PRINCE RUPERT BICKERDIKE ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS BRAZEAU KITMAT BARLOW SODA CREEK LAMOUREUX WABAMUN EAST EDMONTON BICKERDIKE BATTLE RIVER BAT RV79 CLOVERBAR SUNDANCE KEMANO MICA 100 MILE HOUSE ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS METISKOW BENALTO M ETI S644 RED DEER KELLY LAKE BRAZEAU SHEERNESS SODA CREEK BAT RV79 MERIDIAN NATAL ROSEDALE INGLEDOW EMPRESS WARE JTN. DUNSMUIR PEIGAN ARNOTT JENNER W. BROOKS CUSTER GRAND COULEE L E G E N D: N. LETHBRIDGE GRAND COULEE ECHO LAKE 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV NELWAY BOUNDARY NOXON LIBBY TAFT VANTAGE MOSCOW ASHE GREAT FALLS ROSS THE DALLES KEELER TAFT ASHE ROSS THE DALLES LAGRANDE BROWNLEE DILLON LANGE WEST HILL AMPS CALDWELL DILLON WYODAK THERMOPOLIS BOISE JEFFERSON SUMMER LAKE DIXONVILLE BUFFALO RESTON K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN GRANTS PASS ATLANTIC CITY MUSTANG RESTON DAVE JOHNSTON BORAH WARNER CASCADE ATLANTIC CITY MALIN BOYLE ROCK SPRINGS NAUGHTON FLAMING GORGE OLINDA MUSTANG LARAMIE RIVER TREASURETON WARNER PLATTE BORDERTOWN ROCK SPRINGS NAUGHTON STORY BONANZA IPP AUSTIN PAWNEE (530 MW) SMOKY HILL DILLON MONA GONDER RIFLE MACHACEK DANIELS PARK MALTA PAVANT HUNTINGTON HUNTER SIGURD MONTROSE TRACY CURECANTI MIDWAY PONCHA COMANCHE PINTO RED BUTTE LOS BANOS NAVAJO GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN SAN JUAN FOUR CORNERS MARKETPLACE OJO MCCULLOUGH TAOS MEAD MOENKOPI MIDWAY NORTON EL DORADO DIABLO B-A P.E.G.S. AMBROSIA MOJAVE ADELANTO DAVIS WEST MESA SELIGMAN LEUPP MCKINLEY LEUPP VICTORVILLE ROUND VALLEY CAMINO SYLMAR FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA VINCENT PARKER EAGLE MT. LUGO RINALDI BLACKWATER CORONADO YAVAPAI BLYTHE DEVERS MIRALOMA SERRANO PRESCOTT SPRINGERVILLE VALLEY TABLE MESA KNOB MIGUEL IMPERIAL VALLEY WESTWING ELCENTRO EL CENTRO PALO VERDE PINNACLE PEAK NORTH GILA SEMPRA TIJUANA METROPOLI JUAREZ GREENLEE LIBERTY ARTESIA AMRAD GILA INTERGEN KYRENE SILVER KING SAGUARO MEXICALI LA ROSITA ARROYO LUNA TORTOLITA SAN LUIS SOUTH CIPRES RMATS HIDALGO LOMAS NEWMAN VAIL BICKNELL CALIENTE DIABLO 2008 Base Case 32 Jan 24, 2008 hr 17 Time of Day BONANZA IPP AUSTIN DANIELS PARK MALTA HUNTINGTON HUNTER SIGURD VACADIXON TESLA GATES RIFLE PAVANT STORY VALMONT TRACY FT CHURCHILL DRUM VACADIXON PAWNEE (530 MW) SMOKY HILL DILLON MONA MACHACEK HAYDEN CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD FT CHURCHILL DRUM AULT CRAIG TERMINAL 90 SOUTH BORDERTOWN TABLE MT MOSS LANDING AULT VALMONT TRACY GONDER FLAMING GORGE OLINDA HAYDEN CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD TABLE MT SIDNEY ARCHER BEN LOMOND CRAIG TERMINAL 90 SOUTH STEGAL BRIDGER MONUMENT HUMBOLDT VALMY (562 MW) HILL TOP ROUND MT SIDNEY ARCHER BEN LOMOND ROUND MT WEED JCT CASCADE PLATTE MONUMENT HUMBOLDT VALMY (562 MW) HILL TOP CASPER SPENCE MIDPOINT STEGAL BRIDGER RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT LARAMIE RIVER TREASURETON WEED JCT CAPT JACK CASPER SPENCE MIDPOINT MALIN BOYLE COPCO THERMOPOLIS JEFFERSON K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN DAVE JOHNSTON BORAH CAPT JACK LONE PINE WEST HILL RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT LANGE OREGON BASIN AMPS BOISE WYODAK BUFFALO OREGON BASIN ALVEY BURNS SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS CALDWELL COPCO SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS ONTARIO LANE BROWNLEE ONTARIO BURNS SUMMER LAKE LONE PINE YELLOWTAIL OXBOW GRIZZLY CROSSOVER YELLOWTAIL OXBOW GRIZZLY GRANTS PASS BOARDMAN BUCKLEY MARION COLSTRIP BILLINGS HELLS CANYON LAGRANDE BOARDMAN CROSSOVER CUSTER ANACONDA ENTERPRISE SLATT BUCKLEY COLSTRIP BILLINGS HELLS CANYON BROADVIEW TOWNSEND McNARY (1169 MW) OSTRANDER MARION ALVEY DIXONVILLE CUSTER BROADVIEW TOWNSEND ANACONDA ENTERPRISE SLATT MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON LOLO WALLA WALLA JOHN DAY ROUNDUP PEARL HATWAI LOW GRANITE ALLSTON OSTRANDER OVANDO DWORSHAK BEAVER LOLO McNARY (1169 MW) ROUNDUP PEARL MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON WALLA WALLA JOHN DAY MOSCOW N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE OVANDO DWORSHAK HATWAI LOW GRANITE ALLSTON SCHULTZ LOW MON N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE BEAVER HOT SPRINGS VANTAGE LOW MON HANFORD MIDWAY NOXON HANFORD GREAT FALLS BENEWAH SCHULTZ OLYMPIA PAUL / CENTRALIA BENEWAH MIDWAY HOT SPRINGS RAVER 115-161KV CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH BELL KEELER 115-161KV CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH BELL 230KV HUNGRY HORSE RAVER LANE 230KV HUNGRY HORSE LIBBY PEIGAN CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH CHIEF JOE MONROE PAUL / CENTRALIA 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV NELWAY CHIEF JOE MONROE NATAL ROSEDALE CUSTER OLYMPIA L E G E N D: N. LETHBRIDGE CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH BOUNDARY SAHTLAM INVERMERE CLAYBURN ARNOTT ECHO LAKE JENNER W. BROOKS INVERMERE CLAYBURN LANGDON EMPRESS WARE JTN. NICOLA MALASPINA JANET SARCEE ASHTON CREEK NICOLA MERIDIAN INGLEDOW DUNSMUIR SAHTLAM LANGDON CHEEKYE GOLD RIVER SHEERNESS REVELSTOKE SAVONA ASHTON CREEK SAVONA M ETI S644 RED DEER KELLY LAKE CHEEKYE MALASPINA JANET SARCEE METISKOW BENALTO MICA 100 MILE HOUSE BRIDGE RIVER GOLD RIVER REVELSTOKE BRIDGE RIVER BATTLE RIVER MONTROSE TRACY CURECANTI MIDWAY PONCHA COMANCHE TESLA PINTO RED BUTTE MOSS LANDING LOS BANOS NAVAJO GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN GATES SAN JUAN FOUR CORNERS MARKETPLACE OJO MCCULLOUGH TAOS MEAD MOENKOPI MIDWAY NORTON EL DORADO DIABLO B-A P.E.G.S. AMBROSIA MOJAVE ADELANTO DAVIS WEST MESA SELIGMAN LEUPP MCKINLEY LEUPP VICTORVILLE ROUND VALLEY CAMINO SYLMAR FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA VINCENT PARKER EAGLE MT. LUGO RINALDI BLACKWATER CORONADO YAVAPAI BLYTHE DEVERS MIRALOMA SERRANO PRESCOTT SPRINGERVILLE VALLEY TABLE MESA KNOB MIGUEL WESTWING ELCENTRO IMPERIAL VALLEY EL CENTRO PALO VERDE PINNACLE PEAK NORTH GILA SEMPRA TIJUANA METROPOLI JUAREZ GREENLEE LIBERTY ARTESIA AMRAD GILA INTERGEN KYRENE SILVER KING SAGUARO MEXICALI LA ROSITA ARROYO LUNA RMATS TORTOLITA SAN LUIS SOUTH HIDALGO LOMAS CIPRES NEWMAN VAIL BICKNELL CALIENTE DIABLO 2008 Base Case 39 June 12, 2008 hr 18 $4 Gas $4 Gas PEACE RIVER GM S500 PEACE CANYON PCN500 RUTH LAKE MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 LITTLE SMOKY PEACE RIVER LOUISE CREEK PRINCE RUPERT GM S500 PEACE PCN500 CANYON WILLISTON TELKWA SKEENA GLENANNAN N. BARRHEAD WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH N. CALDER KITMAT BARLOW MARGUERITE LAKE RUTH LAKE LITTLE SMOKY LOUISE CREEK CLOVERBAR PRINCE RUPERT EAST EDMONTON BICKERDIKE MITSUE KENNEDY KDY 5CX3 LAMOUREUX WABAMUN SUNDANCE KEMANO WILLISTON TELKWA SKEENA ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS GLENANNAN N. BARRHEAD WHITEFISH LAKE DEERLAND SAGITAWAH N. CALDER BRAZEAU SODA CREEK KITMAT BATTLE RIVER BAT RV79 BARLOW M ETI S644 BATTLE RIVER BAT RV79 JANET SARCEE ASHTON CREEK SAVONA LANGDON EMPRESS WARE JTN. SHEERNESS L E G E N D: N. LETHBRIDGE NELWAY GRAND COULEE MERIDIAN 115-161KV NATAL ROSEDALE INGLEDOW DUNSMUIR PEIGAN ARNOTT CUSTER CHIEF JOE MONROE LOW MON HANFORD THE DALLES BUCKLEY PAUL / CENTRALIA TAFT VANTAGE BROADVIEW TOWNSEND MOSCOW COLSTRIP ANACONDA MIDWAY BILLINGS LOW MON HANFORD ASHE BOARDMAN ROSS YELLOWTAIL THE DALLES KEELER OXBOW BROWNLEE SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS MARION GRIZZLY DILLON WYODAK LANGE BUCKLEY BROADVIEW COLSTRIP ANACONDA BILLINGS CROSSOVER ENTERPRISE SLATT HELLS CANYON BOARDMAN YELLOWTAIL OXBOW OREGON BASIN BROWNLEE ONTARIO WEST HILL BURNS AMPS SHERIDAN PETERSON FLATS MARION GRIZZLY THERMOPOLIS BOISE CUSTER TOWNSEND McNARY (1169 MW) OSTRANDER LAGRANDE ALVEY CALDWELL MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON LOLO WALLA WALLA JOHN DAY ROUNDUP PEARL BUFFALO OVANDO DWORSHAK HATWAI LOW GRANITE ALLSTON HELLS CANYON N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE BEAVER CROSSOVER ENTERPRISE LAGRANDE GREAT FALLS SCHULTZ OLYMPIA CUSTER WALLA WALLA McNARY (1169 MW) ROUNDUP HOT SPRINGS BENEWAH MILES CITY DC TIE GARRISON LOLO SLATT DILLON LANGE OREGON BASIN JEFFERSON ATLANTIC CITY MALIN BOYLE COPCO MUSTANG SIDNEY FLAMING GORGE CASCADE HAYDEN PAWNEE (530 MW) PLATTE MONUMENT HUMBOLDT VALMY (562 MW) WARNER ROCK SPRINGS NAUGHTON SIDNEY ARCHER BEN LOMOND ROUND MT STORY VALMONT FLAMING GORGE OLINDA AULT CRAIG TERMINAL BONANZA IPP AUSTIN BORDERTOWN RIFLE STORY VALMONT TRACY BONANZA IPP AUSTIN HUNTINGTON FT CHURCHILL DRUM RIFLE MACHACEK PONCHA DANIELS PARK MALTA PAVANT MONTROSE CURECANTI SMOKY HILL DILLON MONA GONDER HUNTER SIGURD PAWNEE (530 MW) CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD TABLE MT DANIELS PARK MALTA PAVANT HUNTINGTON MIDWAY COMANCHE PINTO HUNTER SIGURD VACADIXON TESLA RED BUTTE HAYDEN 90 SOUTH SMOKY HILL DILLON MONA GONDER MACHACEK TRACY STEGAL BRIDGER HILL TOP AULT CRAIG TERMINAL LARAMIE RIVER TREASURETON WEED JCT ARCHER 90 SOUTH TRACY FT CHURCHILL VACADIXON CASPER SPENCE MIDPOINT PLATTE ROCK SPRINGS CAMP WILLIAMS VALLEY ROAD DAVE JOHNSTON BORAH CAPT JACK LONE PINE STEGAL RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT LARAMIE RIVER OLINDA DRUM THERMOPOLIS BOISE K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN GRANTS PASS MUSTANG BRIDGER MONUMENT NAUGHTON BEN LOMOND BORDERTOWN AMPS CALDWELL SUMMER LAKE DIXONVILLE RESTON ATLANTIC CITY TREASURETON HUMBOLDT WARNER ROUND MT TABLE MT WEST HILL BURNS CASPER SPENCE MIDPOINT MALIN VALMY (562 MW) ALVEY DAVE JOHNSTON BORAH CAPT JACK BOYLE WEED JCT ONTARIO LANE RIVERTON GOSHEN KINPORT K-FALLS MERIDIAN CO GEN HILL TOP WYODAK BUFFALO JEFFERSON SUMMER LAKE DIXONVILLE RESTON CASCADE 115-161KV NOXON RAVER OVANDO DWORSHAK HATWAI LOW GRANITE JOHN DAY OSTRANDER LONE PINE 230KV HUNGRY HORSE CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH BELL N LEWISTON LIT GOOSE ASHE ROSS 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV GRAND COULEE LIBBY ECHO LAKE MOSCOW MIDWAY ALLSTON PEARL L E G E N D: NELWAY SAHTLAM GREAT FALLS TAFT VANTAGE BEAVER KEELER N. LETHBRIDGE CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH BOUNDARY HOT SPRINGS BENEWAH SCHULTZ PAUL / CENTRALIA EMPRESS INVERMERE CLAYBURN HUNGRY HORSE NOXON BELL RAVER OLYMPIA JENNER W. BROOKS NICOLA MALASPINA CAB GORGE ROCKY REACH WARE JTN. CHEEKYE GOLD RIVER 230KV LIBBY ECHO LAKE LANGDON 345KV +-500KV DC 500KV BOUNDARY CHIEF JOE MONROE ASHTON CREEK SAVONA PEIGAN CRANBROOK SELKIRK WANETA WHALEACH JANET SARCEE NATAL ROSEDALE SAHTLAM REVELSTOKE BRIDGE RIVER INVERMERE CLAYBURN CUSTER COPCO M ETI S644 RED DEER KELLY LAKE NICOLA MERIDIAN ARNOTT LANE METISKOW BENALTO MICA 100 MILE HOUSE JENNER W. BROOKS CHEEKYE INGLEDOW DUNSMUIR GRANTS PASS ELLERSLIE KEEPHILLS BRAZEAU SODA CREEK REVELSTOKE MALASPINA MARGUERITE LAKE EAST EDMONTON BICKERDIKE SHEERNESS GOLD RIVER CLOVERBAR SUNDANCE KEMANO RED DEER KELLY LAKE LAMOUREUX WABAMUN METISKOW BENALTO MICA 100 MILE HOUSE BRIDGE RIVER MONTROSE TRACY CURECANTI PONCHA MIDWAY COMANCHE TESLA MOSS LANDING LOS BANOS NAVAJO GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN GATES FOUR CORNERS SAN JUAN MOSS LANDING MARKETPLACE LOS BANOS NAVAJO OJO MCCULLOUGH GLEN CANYON HARRY ALLEN TAOS MEAD GATES MOENKOPI MIDWAY FOUR CORNERS OJO MCCULLOUGH TAOS MEAD B-A P.E.G.S. DAVIS MOENKOPI MIDWAY AMBROSIA MOJAVE ADELANTO WEST MESA NORTON EL DORADO DIABLO B-A SELIGMAN P.E.G.S. LEUPP MCKINLEY LEUPP VICTORVILLE ROUND VALLEY CAMINO SYLMAR PARKER EAGLE MT. LUGO YAVAPAI IMPERIAL VALLEY METROPOLI GREENLEE MIGUEL ARTESIA AMRAD KYRENE SAGUARO LA ROSITA SILVER KING EL CENTRO PALO VERDE PINNACLE PEAK TIJUANA HIDALGO NEWMAN VAIL CALIENTE DIABLO 34 WESTWING ELCENTRO NORTH GILA LUNA SOUTH BICKNELL IMPERIAL VALLEY ARROYO TORTOLITA SAN LUIS LOMAS 2008 Base Case BLACKWATER SPRINGERVILLE TABLE MESA KNOB LIBERTY GILA MEXICALI CIPRES PRESCOTT VALLEY PINNACLE PEAK JUAREZ DEVERS PALO VERDE NORTH GILA CORONADO YAVAPAI BLYTHE EL CENTRO INTERGEN MCKINLEY LEUPP FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA PARKER EAGLE MT. LUGO MIRALOMA SERRANO WESTWING ELCENTRO SEMPRA WEST MESA LEUPP ROUND VALLEY CAMINO VINCENT RINALDI SPRINGERVILLE TABLE MESA KNOB MIGUEL SELIGMAN VICTORVILLE SYLMAR PRESCOTT VALLEY TIJUANA AMBROSIA DAVIS BLACKWATER CORONADO BLYTHE DEVERS MIRALOMA SERRANO MOJAVE ADELANTO FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA VINCENT RINALDI SAN JUAN MARKETPLACE NORTON EL DORADO DIABLO PINTO RED BUTTE RMATS JUAREZ SEMPRA METROPOLI INTERGEN LIBERTY ARTESIA AMRAD GILA KYRENE SAGUARO MEXICALI LA ROSITA SILVER KING ARROYO LUNA TORTOLITA SAN LUIS SOUTH HIDALGO LOMAS CIPRES GREENLEE BICKNELL NEWMAN VAIL CALIENTE DIABLO 2008 Base Case RMATS 41 5-2 To begin the process of evaluating whether it is cost-effective to add transmission between areas of low and high location marginal prices, the model identifies how much the addition of one megawatt of transfer capability would affect overall interconnectionwide variable operating and maintenance costs. To economists this is known as the “opportunity cost.” One also needs to examine the duration of the transmission congestion that leads to differentials in prices between areas. Figure 5-2 shows the six paths in the RMATS region with the highest opportunity cost. (Click here for information on opportunity costs on all RMATS paths. LINK) The opportunity costs reflect the value of reducing congestion created by flows in both directions on the transmission path. The results presented were using assumptions of natural gas prices $4/MMBtu, 2008 loads, and base case assumptions for wind development in 2008. (Additional wind develop is likely prior to 2008 and that higher generation was reflected in a sensitivity analysis.) Figure 6-2 Six Paths with Highest Opportunity Costs Location [Direction of flow] E. Idaho to W. Montana [S – N] Opportunity cost % hours of next MW congested $28,324 5% TOT 2C S. Utah to S.E. Nevada [N – S] $11,706 15% Bridger West S.W. Wyoming to S.E. Idaho & to Northwest [E – W] $10,749 19% IPP DC C. Utah to S. California [NE – SW] $10,141 72% TOT 3 S.E. Wyoming to N.E. Colorado [N – S] $5,649 8% $2,590 3% Interface Idaho to Montana SW Wyoming S.W. Wyoming to E. Utah [N – S] to Bonanza* Figure 5-3 shows the location of the paths in the table. 5-3 Figure 5-3 Location of Lines from Figure 6-2 PEACE RIVER GMS50 0 PEACE PCN50 CANYON 0 KENNED KDY Y 5CX3 TELKW A SKEEN A KITMA T KEMAN O WHITEFIS MARGUERI TELAK H LAK DEERLAN E E D LAMOURE WABAMU UX CLOVERBA SUNDANC N EAST R E EDMONTON ELLERSLI KEEPHILL E S SAGITAW AH BICKERDI KE BRAZEA U SOD CREE A K 100 HOUS MILE E INGLEDO W ARNOT T REVELSTO KE ASHTO CREE N K SAVON A CUSTE R SAHTLA M MONRO E ECH LAK O E INVERME RE CA GORG B E ROCK REAC Y H BEL L BENEWA H PEAR L TH JOHN DALLE E DAY S OSTRANDE R MARIO N LAN E N LI LEW IS GOOS TON T E LO GRANIT W E WALL WALL McNAR A A (1169 Y MW) ROUNDUENTERPRI SE SLAT P LAGRAND T BOARDMA E BUCKLE OXBO N Y W LO MIDWA HANFOR MO W D Y N ASH E ROS S DIXONVIL RESTO LE N KGRANT CO MERIDIA FALLS SPAS GEN CAP S LON N JAC T PIN E K MALI ECOPC BOYL N E O WEE DJC T CASCAD E ROUN DM T MOSCO W DWORSHA K HATW AI LOL O HO SPRING T S HILL TOP OVAND O GARRISO N BORDERTO WN BROWNL EE PETERSO NFLAT S TESL A MOS LANDIN S G IPP DC BORA H KINPOR T IP P GONDE R RIVERTO N GOSHE N MCCULLOU GH MIDWA Y SYLMA R MARKETPLA CE MEA D MOJAV E VICTORVIL LE DAVI S CAMIN O PARKE EAGL LUG R EM O BLYTH T. DEVER MIRALO E S MA VALLE KNO Y B MIGUE IMPERI ELCENTR EL VALLE OCENTRO L AL PALO Y NORTH VERDE INTERGE GIL GILA TIJUAN SEMPR A A N A MEXICA JUARE METROPOL LI ROSIT LI A Z SAN A LOMA LUIS SCIPRE S VINCEN T RINAL DI SERRAN O CURECAN TI PONCH A SELIGMA N ROUN VALLE D Y YAVAP AI LEUP P LEUP FLAGSTAP FF CHOLL CORONAD A O PINNACLE LIBERT PEAK Y KYREN SAGUAR SILVE E O RKIN G TORTOLI SOUT TA H VAI BICKNEL L L MIDWA Y COMANC HE SW Wyoming to Bonanza OJ O TAO S NORTO N P.E.G. AMBROSI S. A PRESCO TT TABLE MESA WESTWIN G DANIELS PARK SAN JUAN FOUR CORNERS MOENKO PI EL DORADO ADELANT O MALT A PINT O NAVAJ O TOT 3 SMOKY HILL DILLO N RIFL E GLE CANYO N N SIDNE Y STOR PAWNE Y (530 E MW) VALMON T BONANZ A MONTRO SE STEGA L ARCHE R AUL T HAYDE N HUNTINGT ON HUNTE R RE BUTT D E HARR ALLE Y N LARAMI ERIVE R PLATT E CRAI G TRAC Y DAVE JOHNSTON MUSTAN G FLAMIN GORG G E TERMINA 9L SOUT 0 H MON A PAVAN T LO BANO S S CASPE R SPENC E ATLANTI C CIT Y BRIDGE MONUME R NT ROC SPRING NAUGHTO K BE S N LOMON N D SIGUR D DIABL O LANG E WES THIL L THERMOPOL IS JEFFERSO N HUMBOL DT MACHACE K GATE S WYODA K OREGO NBASI N AUSTI N F CHURCHI T LL DRU M VAC DIXO AN SHERIDA BUFFAL N O DILLO N AMP S BOIS E CAM WILLIA P MS VALLE YROA D TRAC Y COLSTRI P YELLOWTA IL OLIND A TABL EM T MILES DC CITY TIE CUSTE R BROADVIE W BILLING CROS S OVE SR TOWNSEN ANACONDD A HELL CANYO S N TREASURET ON WARNE R V 115161KV GREA FALL T S TAF T MIDPOI NT VALM (562 Y MW) 34K V 230K +500KV D 500K C V HUNGRY HORSE LIBB Y NOXO N ONTARI O CALDWEL L BURN S SUMME RLAK E Idaho to Montana L E G E N D: PEIGA N. N LETHBRIDGE GRIZZL Y ALVE Y METISKO WMETIS6 44 SHEERNES S EMPRES WAR S JENNE EJTN W. . R BROOKS NATA L CRANBRO WANET SELKIR OK K A NELWA BOUNDAR Y Y SCHULT PAUL Z VANTAG CENTRALI / E A OLYMPI A KEELE R RE DEE D R JANE T LANGDO N SARCE E NICOL A WHALEAC H CHIE GRAND FJO COULEE E RAVE R BEAVE R ALLSTO N BATTLE BAT RIVER RV79 BENALT O MIC A KELL LAK Y E CHEEKY E MERIDIA N CLAYBUR N ROSEDAL E MALASPIN A DUNSMUI R Bridger West N. BARRHEAD N. CALDER BARLO W BRIDG ERIVE R GOLD RIVER LOUIS CREE E K WILLIST ON GLENANNA N RUTH LAKE MITSU E LITTL SMOK E Y PRINCE RUPERT BA WES MES T A MCKINLE Y BLACKWAT ER SPRINGERVIL LE GREENLE E HIDALG O ARROY LUN O A AMRA D NEWMA DIABL N O ARTESI A CALIENT E TOT 2C The duration of congestion on paths is also important when screening transmission paths for investment. Figure 5-4 is an example of the duration curve for the TOT 3. The green line shows economic flows of power if there were no transmission constraints. The red line shows flows in the 2008 scenario assuming $4/MMBtu natural gas, 2008 loads, and a high level of wind development. The black line shows the transfer limit on flows from north to south on the path. The blue line shows transfer limits south to north. Figure 5-5 shows the distribution of time the path is congested. 5-4 Figure 5-4 TOT 2C 800 • Opportunity cost of 600 not increasing the line by 1 MW: $20,341 400 • Power flowing south 200 is congested 23% of all hours MW S N 0 % of Hours (200) 20% 40% 60% 80% (400) (600) Potential Line Loading 2008 System Forward Limit Reverse Limit Figure 5-5 TOT 2C Potential Line Loading with no interface constraints enforced Frequency (# hrs in a year) 2400 2000 1600 708,400 MWh/ 19% 1200 800 400 0 -600 -350 -100 150 400 650 900 MW 40,864 MWh/ 1% N S S Below are links to duration curves of other transmission paths: Idaho to Montana [ADD HYPERLINK] TOT 2C [ADD HYPERLINK] Bridger West [ADD HYPERLINK] IPP DC [ADD HYPERLINK] Southwest Wyoming to Bonanza [ADD HYPERLINK] 5-5 Sensitivity Analysis To check the sensitivity of the 2008 base case model results to changes in inputs, sensitivity analysis were conducted using high loads (2013 forecasted loads instead of 2008 forecasted loads), high gas prices ($5/MMBtu instead of $4), and additional wind generation was included (an additional 1742 MW of nameplate capacity over the 508 MW in the base case. Figure 5-5 shows the opportunity costs associated with increasing the transfer capacity of transmission paths by 1 MW changes with changes in assumptions. The table also shows the ranking of paths from highest opportunity cost to lowest. All paths in the Western Interconnection are show. Those in yellow are in the RMATS region. Figure5-5 Transmission Path Opportunity Costs Under Different Assumptions ADD TABLE FROM A VERSION OF SLIDE 46 OF “RMATS_FullPackage_0200404” 5-6 Insights from Base Case Modeling Modeling the transmission system in the base case provides useful insights to guide further analysis. For example: The opportunity costs and congestion duration curves derived from the ABB Market Simulator are useful tools to screen the range of potential transmission expansion projects and focus on those with potentially greater economic benefits. Paths showing significant opportunity costs and congestion duration curves may be good targets for early investment to expand transmission capacity, i.e., potential “low hanging fruit.” There is greater certainty about the validity of results from the base case modeling than there is in modeling in 2013 where more uncertain assumptions about load and the location and size of future generation drive model results. The sensitivity analysis shows the general consistency in the ranking of the top five paths in the RMATS region under the base case assumptions and under assumptions of high gas prices, high load growth, and high levels of wind development. This increases confidence that expanding the transmission capacity on these paths will be valuable under a variety of future circumstances. A low load growth scenario was not evaluated for 2008 (but was analyzed for 2013). One exception to the consistency of path rankings is the Bridger West path which is sensitive to changes in load and wind generation assumptions. Under high load conditions, the Bridger West path drops to 40th or 45th in opportunity costs ($476 and $557). Under high wind generation assumption, Bridger West becomes the path with the 3rd or 4th highest opportunity costs ($43,690 and $52,781). The base case modeling provides a rough indication of the location of the beneficiaries of transmission expansion, as well as potential losers from transmission expansion. The base case modeling, however, does not shed light on institutional impediments to effectively utilizing the existing transmission system. The model assumes dispatch of the least cost generating resources up to the carrying capacity of the transmission paths. This approach does not account for real world practices that preclude efficient use of the transmission system, such as: Transmission contracts that may block the ability of low cost generators from using the transmission system before higher cost generators are deployed; The impact of the few types of transmission products (firm and non-firm) available; The way in which Available Transmission Capacity is calculated which may limit the fully utilization of existing lines; and Transmission charges (e.g., imbalance penalties, ancillary service charges) that in the real world limit could the dispatch of the lowest variable cost resource, wind. (See Chapter 4) 5-7 Analysis of “Low Hanging Fruit” The Transmission Work Group used the results from the base case modeling to identify several potential near-term transmission expansion projects. The base case model was then run with these transmission projects….TO BE ADDED 5-8
