INTERCONNECT COMMUNICATIONS Norfolk County Council Analysis of Options for Norfolk Open Link Final Report DRAFT Version: 2.1 18 January 2008 Merlin House Chepstow NP16 5PB United Kingdom Telephone: Facsimile: Email: Internet: +44 1291 638400 +44 1291 638401 info@icc-uk.com www.icc-uk.com Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Notice This document is provided in good faith and is based on InterConnect’s understanding of the recipient’s requirements. InterConnect would be pleased to discuss the contents of this document particularly if the recipient’s requirements have in any way changed. InterConnect is a wholly owned subsidiary of Telcordia Technologies Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © InterConnect Communications Ltd, 2007 InterConnect Communications Ltd Merlin House Station Road Chepstow NP16 5PB United Kingdom Telephone: +44 1291 638400 Facsimile: +44 1291 638401 www.icc-uk.com DOCUMENT RELEASE HISTORY Version Release Date Notes V1.0 23 November 2007 Internal Draft V1.1 21 December 2007 Draft for NCC review V2.1 18 January 2008 Final Version Persons to contact in relation to this document: Hugh Collins Director of Economic Regulation Mob: +44 777 047 6788 Tel: +44 1291 638400 Fax: +44 845 280 5003 Email: hughcollins@icc-uk.com Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Norfolk County Council Analysis of Options for Norfolk Open Link Final Report Contents 1. Introduction....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Summary.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Legal Requirements and Intervention protocols.................................................... 1 1.3 Future Options for NOL ........................................................................................ 2 1.4 Review of economic and policy benefits ............................................................... 2 1.5 Business analysis of Options................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.6 Objectives of the NOL pilot project ....................................................................... 3 1.7 Achievement of NOL Pilot Objectives ................................................................... 4 1.8 Future Demand for Wireless Access Services ...................................................... 6 2. Method for the Assignment ............................................................................. 7 3. Objectives for Future Development of NOL .................................................... 8 3.1 Central Government Broadband Policy ................................................................ 8 3.2 NCC Strategic Objectives ..................................................................................... 9 4. NOL - Technical Aspects and Feasibility .......................................................10 4.1 NOL - Users and Levels of Use .......................................................................... 10 4.2 NOL Network Overview ...................................................................................... 10 5. Competition in the Norfolk WiFi Market .........................................................14 6. Demand for WiFi Services in Norfolk .............................................................15 6.1 Imperial College Market Survey ......................................................................... 15 6.2 Types of Demand ............................................................................................... 15 6.3 Forecasts of future usage ................................................................................... 18 7. Costs of Radio Access network provision.....................................................20 8. NOL Options for Future Development ............................................................21 8.1 9. Technology used ................................................................................................ 23 Evaluation of Options for NOL Development ................................................24 InterConnect Communications Ltd Page ii Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 9.1 Option 1: Convert NOL into a commercial service with similar coverage ........... 24 9.2 Option 2: Develop NOL into a wireless data system with greater coverage ....... 25 9.3 Option 3: Develop NOL to deliver both wireless mobile and fixed broadband services ............................................................................................................. 28 9.4 Option 4: Close NOL down ................................................................................ 29 10. Annex A: Procurement and Operation Issues ..............................................30 10.1 Adherence to state aid and competition policy.................................................... 30 10.2 Intervention protocols ......................................................................................... 31 10.3 Options within this framework ............................................................................. 31 10.4 Ownership and Feasibility - who will take it on, how and when? ......................... 32 11. Annex B: Digital Connectivity Policy Priorities ............................................33 11.1 Underlying principle ............................................................................................ 33 11.2 Economic impact ................................................................................................ 33 11.3 What are the gaps, how important are these and will the market provide? ......... 33 11.4 Three types of digital connectivity....................................................................... 33 11.5 Most important gaps from point of view of regional economies ........................... 34 11.6 How important is wireless/ mobile connectivity? ................................................. 34 11.7 Priority for the economy ..................................................................................... 35 11.8 Revenues ........................................................................................................... 35 11.9 The need for intervention ................................................................................... 35 11.10 Support of Public Policy Goals ........................................................................... 36 12. Annex C: Competition in the Norfolk WiFi Market ........................................38 13. Annex D: Summary of Imperial Market Survey .............................................41 InterConnect Communications Ltd Page iii Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 1. Introduction 1.1 Summary Norfolk County Council required advice on future planning during the final phase of the Norfolk Open Link Project (“NOL”). The assignment has consisted of evaluation and analysis of the NOL Project, its impact and outcomes including the development and evaluation of options for the future which are legally compliant, technically viable and likely to be financially sufficiently attractive that ongoing operating subsidy would not be required. 1.2 Legal Requirements and Intervention protocols Any public sector action will need to adhere to the intervention policy protocols: public sector should focus on enabling/ supporting private sector to deliver and only if this fails, to step in with more direct intervention – market displacement rules public sector action should not benefit any one undertaking over and above others, but should benefit all equally – state aid rules. in particular, public sector action should not displace existing or future private sector activity and investment – this does not just relate to BT and Virgin Media, and the national BWA operators, but to small local providers (of which there is at least one providing fixed wireless connectivity) In light of this, the public sector should focus on enabling the private sector to develop the project to meet the required objectives, but in a way that gives all of the private sector equal opportunity to participate. In the case of determining NOL’s future, there are a number of ways forward (options) to consider: Private sector-led and public sector facilitates Public sector sets out the project’s objectives in terms of service levels required, target populations and broad timeframe, then does no more than bring potential private sector players together and enables/ facilitates discussions, with the aim of encouraging purchase of and appropriate investment in the existing platform such that it continues to deliver a WiFi service, but also fills 2nd generation broadband gaps and starts to deploy 3rd generation access. Private sector parties may include the major telcos, existing wireless operators, local providers and potential new entrants. Public sector may be able to soften the costs by committing anchor revenue, but this may raise state aid issues. Public sector procures If this does not work, then public sector will need to take further action. Public sector would seek to procure an open access wholesale service covering the target populations that would be open to all retailers on an equal footing – and at least two options are available to do this: Public sector places the service requirement out to tender via a fully competitive OJEC process (“OJEU competitive dialog process”). The bidder or consortium proposing an appropriate solution and requiring the least financial gap funding would be selected. Public sector may reduce the gap funding requirement by committing anchor revenues and/or revenue guarantees. The winning consortium InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 1 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council would own and run the network, providing the service level and coverage required. It could then also use the network for other purposes. Public sector would also need to build into the contract appropriate claw back arrangements. Public sector considers establishing a special purpose vehicle and puts this to the market for investment in return for shares. The vehicle would act like a utilities provider rather than a telco, seeking long term investment at utility rates rather than the shorter much higher returns usually required by telcos. It would be open to investment by telcos, large and small, ordinary companies and residents. Public sector may need to gap fund the vehicle, at least in the short term. Long term infrastructure investment funding could be sought from European Investment Bank (competitive source of loans). In the evaluation of the options considered we summarise the type of procurement which should be used to move NOL to a commercial footing. 1.3 Future Options for NOL The objectives of NCC and more general public policy objectives suggest four options for NOL development: Option 1: Convert NOL into a commercial wireless data service with similar coverage and technology as the NOL pilot, with NCC’s role being that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 2: Develop NOL into a commercial wireless data service with greater coverage to support public sector applications and to provide a commercially viable service to the public at large (this would almost certainly require migration to a new radio system such as mobile WiMAX) with NCC’s role again being that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 3: Develop NOL to deliver both wireless mobile and fixed broadband services to businesses and households, filling gaps not addressed by existing providers. This option would address much broader digital connectivity goals - the challenge would be to find a way to fill the provision gaps in a timely and costeffective way. NCC’s role would again be that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 4: Close NOL down - allow commercial suppliers to provide services as they see fit. 1.4 Review of economic and policy benefits The following table summarises the main economic and policy impacts and benefits of each Option. It assesses the options in terms of usage, benefits, economic and wider policy impacts. Options appraisal – usage, benefits, economic and wider policy additionality Option Usage additionality Option 1: Continue with NOL network and service as is Low: some growth in paying user numbers, offset by loss of non-payers InterConnect Communications Ltd Benefits additionality Low Economic additionality Low Wider policy additionality Continuing support of Norwich as a good place to Page 2 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Option Usage additionality Benefits additionality Economic additionality Wider policy additionality live and work Option 2: Extend NOL coverage and services High: strong growth in paying user numbers, provision of service to NCC and other public sector organisations, “free” service through advertising support, etc. High - provides public access across a wide area which has not been served by existing commercial operators. Supports numerous public sector applications High - economic benefits of fixed and mobile connectivity flow to many areas, people and organisations Strengthened support of Norwich and Norfolk as a good place to live and work. Option 3: Build on Option 2 to address the ‘2nd generation broadband divide’ by, introducing additional technology to provide fixed bandwidth to households and businesses further than 2.5 kms linelength from their serving exchanges Very High: As Option 2 but with major additional usage from widespread broadband provision in rural areas Very High: provides private and public access across a wide area which has not been served by existing commercial operators. Benefits to public and private sectors, and to personal users Very High economic benefits of fixed and mobile connectivity flow to many areas, people and organisations Strengthened support of Norwich and Norfolk as a good place to live and work. Option 4: NOL Close down None None None None 1.5 Addresses current digital divide issues across a wide area of Norfolk Addresses current and future digital divide issues across a wide area of Norfolk Objectives of the NOL pilot project The objectives of the NOL pilot project have been to evaluate whether there is enthusiasm amongst people, businesses and public sector organisations to make use of convenient Internet access in public areas and selected covered buildings and homes in Norwich and South Norfolk, and to test the technical feasibility of deploying and operating an access network for Internet based on wireless technology in both city and rural areas. The particular access technology chosen was WiFi. Commercial aspects have not been tested directly in the pilot, since it was decided to offer the pilot service free of charge. However, a recent user survey has thrown some light on the potential revenues from a commercial wireless access service. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 3 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 1.6 Achievement of NOL Pilot Objectives 1.6.1 Public Reaction to NOL The NOL wireless network service has been operational for over 12 months and the level of use from the general public and business sector has grown steadily. The project is the first to offer free wireless access to the general public, the first to combine both general public and public sector usage and the first to cover both urban and rural communities and, as a result, has attracted high levels of interest locally, nationally and internationally. A survey of NOL users and non-users was carried out in November 2007 by Imperial College. In brief summary NOL is perceived very favourably. Users believe that it improves their productivity - 62% stating that they gained between 1 and 2 hours or even more productive work each week. Users also report that NOL improves their quality of life and significantly enhances the attractiveness of Norwich as a place to live and work. As many as 88% of user respondents stated they would prefer to live or work in city with such services, either to a great or very great extent. However, it was also concluded that only a small minority of users (only around 1 in 10) would readily pay for the NOL service. NOL is seen as very nice to have, but not something which the great majority would be willing to pay for on a regular basis. Further, public leaders such as the local MPs see a strong benefit to the quality of life and attractiveness of Norwich and Norfolk brought by the easy availability of wireless internet access across the city and in other population centres. We conclude NOL is perceived as making a strong positive contribution to the image and quality of life in Norwich and in the selected villages in South Norfolk where it has been deployed. 1.6.2 Public Sector Applications Public Sector Applications are of two main types - the use of NOL by public sector employees and other applications (e.g. for data collection and device control, CCTV cameras, etc.), and the use of NOL to reduce the “digital divide”1. While NOL has been seen by policy makers in local and national government as a ‘pathfinder’ project which will inform the role that the public sector should play in the delivery of ubiquitous wireless networks, the impact of the NOL pilot on public sector users and services has been very small, principally because it is a pilot with a defined operating timescale. There is considerable interest in the radio access service for a wide range of applications, but no public sector bodies have developed or transferred such applications because the time and money required was not judged worthwhile in the context of a pilot only. A further reason for non-use by the public sector has been the lack of coverage offered by the NOL pilot. To be a serious communications option for mobile workforce, CCTV cameras, etc. a high level of effective coverage of at least populated areas is seen as necessary. 1 The “digital divide” could be reduced by providing Internet access to selected households or individuals who would not otherwise have access to Internet but would nevertheless benefit from it for educational or economic reasons. Presumably such service would need to be fully or partially subsidized. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 4 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Norfolk County Council’s ‘Digital Challenge’ bid included a proposal to develop the concept of the ‘free’ wireless service to targeted communities/users and even though it was not successful, there is still support from the partner organisations for some form of joint investment in a shared wireless service for public sector users. However, again no formal development of public sector schemes to provide Internet access to disadvantaged groups has been developed using NOL, for the same two reasons - NOL’s pilot status and lack of coverage. However, we should not reach the conclusion that wireless access is of little use to the public sector. Rather, the conclusion to be reached is that with a clear commitment to offer the service for an extended period, and with defined extensive coverage of populated areas, numerous beneficial applications could be developed. 1.6.3 Technical Feasibility The Norfolk Open Link Project has delivered a WiFi wireless access service on a pilot basis to over 15 km2 of urban Norwich and 20 rural villages in South Norfolk. The network is built up of about 260 WiFi access points, linked to servers and thence to the Internet by a combination of WiFi mesh networking and radio backhaul links. Initially numerous technical teething problems were encountered which interfered with the proper functioning of the service. However, the supply contractor Synetrix has worked to address these problems, and the service is now running well. WiFi technology is widely and cheaply available, but it has an inherent problem with regard to applications such as that of the NOL network, which cannot easily be overcome; the range of each base station is very limited (90 metres is often quoted, but obstructions such as walls can reduce this dramatically to 20 metres or less). Such a range is fine for ‘hotspots’ such as coffee shops, hotel foyers, airport lounges etc. but it is very difficult to achieve continuous coverage across any significant area such as a city centre. A technology with a greater range and ability to penetrate buildings would be preferable provided the costs of network deployment and of terminals were acceptable. The network has also demonstrated that there are technical differences between urban and rural areas. While NOL has provided substantial though not complete coverage in Norwich City through overlapping hotspots, achieving coverage in rural areas using WiFi cannot reasonably go beyond a model of isolated hotspots. This had been achieved in about 20 villages in South Norfolk, but practical use in the villages requires the user to move to the covered building or its immediate surrounds, so the convenience of the service is reduced when compared with the situation in Norwich City. Further, lower numbers of potential users in rural areas would severely hinder any attempt to economically increase coverage in rural areas using WiFi. 1.6.4 The Immediate Future Legal and funding constraints mean that this pilot project is planned to finish by March 2008, though if a decision is taken to commercialise the service, to it can be continued until August 2008 to allow time for the transition, assuming additional operating funding were to be made available. At present there is no future commitment to the NOL wireless network from NCC, EEDA or any of the partners. Early monitoring of the service, feedback from users and intelligence from similar projects all show that under the right circumstances it should be possible to create a sustainable service based on the initial investment of the pilot project and some form of charging model. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 5 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 1.7 Future Demand for Wireless Access Services The results of a recent survey of NOL users and non-users undertaken for NCC have been reported separately (ref) but it is worth summarising the main findings here: Users of the NOL pilot like the service, stating it is convenient and improves their productivity There is a wide perception that NOL provides good support for Norwich and Norfolk as a good place to live and work. Two groups of users identified: Using NOL as a free alternative to, or truly because of affordability Those out and about making personal or business using of NOL mobile access. Overall less than 10% of users are likely to convert to a paid subscription in practice. While people say they are delighted with the service, they are not prepared to pay for it. For mobile workforces, both businesses and public sector organisations have a non-negotiable requirement for ubiquitous coverage. Plenty of potential public sector applications were discussed, and it emerges that there is a need for a common platform across all public sector applications. This is another indication of the trend towards multi-functional front line staff. The initiative, as a pilot, is applauded by the general public, private firms and public organisations. Nevertheless, there is a general aversion from the private sector to see the public sector operating such a network on a full-scale and long term basis. We have identified the following six sources of demand for WiFi services which form actual or potential revenue streams for a commercialised NOL. Sources of Demand and Revenue for NOL Retail WiFi users (personal and business subscribers and occasional users) Wholesale users - those whose subscription is to another service provider, but who ‘roam’ onto NOL) Advertising Revenues Sponsorship Revenues Revenues from public sector operational use Revenues from public sector projects in the fields of social inclusion etc We discuss the potential of each revenue source in Section 6 below. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 6 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 2. Method for the Assignment To establish the objectives for the assignment we have had extensive discussions with Norfolk County Council, and a representative from South Norfolk. The key objectives of the assignment are to: Assess the success of the current project so far, in terms of impact (economic and social) and value for money (given that the project is grant funded) Identify future options for the project, focussing on achieving financial viability (i.e. identifying if there is a viable business case for the continuation of some form of large-scale wireless service following the completion of the pilot project and to define and recommend a legally compliant way forward for the ownership and operation of the service in future. We have also reviewed usage data and system descriptions and maps supplied by Synetrix, and prepared technical options for network and system development. With regard to the outline business plan we have developed a set of potential revenue sources, and estimated the number of users, volume of use and prices which could be charged, based on competing offers. Options for the future of the Norfolk pilot have been developed and reviewed. The evaluation of options has been a key part of the assignment. The evaluation of the options demonstrates how the implementation of a sustainable operating model could be achieved which would continue to deliver wireless access service following the conclusion of the pilot project. Options are presented in the form of outline business cases that define the potential benefits, service options and the costs of expanding and operating the service. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 7 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 3. Objectives for Future Development of NOL The objectives for the NOL pilot were set in the context of public policy for digital connectivity and the options for the future of NOL have been developed assuming that these public policy objectives will continue. In this section we identify how the project currently does and potentially could contribute to key digital connectivity policy objectives. 3.1 Central Government Broadband Policy The national political environment is encouraging - recent announcement by the Minister for Competitiveness, Stephen Timms has put emphasis on “Broadband Britain”: Speaking at the 2007 Parliament and the Internet Conference in Westminster on 18 October 2007, Timms said a growing demand for flexible working meant that the national telecommunications infrastructure needed an upgrade to fibre [with the important addition of wireless, satellite and 3G]. Although the "backbone" of the nation's infrastructure is already fibre-based, the connections between local exchanges and homes themselves are almost always based on copper, thus restricting access speed. Ofcom, the communications regulator, is currently consulting on how to overcome this bottleneck, with the most significant questions being those of demand and who will pay for the upgrade. "UK broadband is in a leading position in terms of availability and use — it's already made an important contribution to UK economic success," said Timms on Thursday. "Data traffic has become more intense. We want to support new access to technology, and not encourage the digital divide." Timms pointed out that high-speed networks would in any case be needed to support the widespread uptake of high-definition TV, but he also singled out the growth in flexible working as a justification. "A growing number of people are working from home who will need high-quality, two-way video conferencing [and advanced audio]," he said. "The quality of graphics applications is pushing up bandwidth needs." If Ofcom is serious about fibre-optic broadband for all, it must first break the commercial logjam... "Effective use of technology enables economic growth," Timms continued. "We have hardly any fibre-to-home connections. As far as I'm aware, we have none. There are 900,000 in the US and eight million in Japan. We're not suffering yet, but communications applications with higher [bandwidth] needs are not far behind. We need timely take-up." Part of Ofcom's consultation involves looking at alternatives to wired access, but Timms claimed that wireless and satellite-based technology was "not enough to support our future bandwidth". "The infrastructure needs to be able to deliver highspeed broadband to all, based around fibre rather than copper, with the important addition of wireless, satellite and 3G," he said. We have reviewed with NCC and EEDA the implications of central government policy for the future development of the NCC NOL pilot. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 8 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 3.2 NCC Strategic Objectives Objectives for future NOL development need to be in line with NCC’s emerging Strategic Ambitions: A Vibrant, Strong and Sustainable Economy Aspirational People, with High Levels of Attainment and Skills An Inspirational Place with a Clear Sense of Identity. These ambitions are pitched at a strategic level and are fundamental to the overall economic, social and environmental well-being of Norfolk. They are important areas where NCC wants to bring about a step change for Norfolk. They build on Norfolk’s focus on excellent services, which underpins these ambitions, and continues as a given. NCC is also streamlining its corporate objectives. These maintain the same area of focus for County Council work but they are more streamlined. These have still yet to be finalised and agreed by Cabinet in January but they are likely to be to: lead a strategic approach to the development of the Norfolk economy improve travel and transport help make Norfolk a safe place to live and work improve educational attainment and help children to achieve their ambitions improve the health and well-being of Norfolk's residents improve opportunities for people to learn throughout life protect and sustain the environment build vibrant, confident and cohesive communities improve and develop Norfolk's cultural heritage and resources. Norfolk County Council is aware that there is a range of operational service models currently being employed and evaluated for wireless network projects throughout the world and that these include: fully public sector funded and managed approaches public/private partnerships commercial/market led models. All technically feasible and legally compliant options have been considered. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 9 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 4. NOL - Technical Aspects and Feasibility This section describes the technical aspects of the NOL system and network, and confirms that NOL has demonstrated the technical feasibility of building and operating an Internet access network for public use based on WiFi technology. NOL network installation was started early in 2006 and the network has been in operation since September 2006. Several teething problems were encountered, from unreliable network links to software problems precluding the connection of convenient user terminals such as PDAs. We understand these problems have now largely been solved, and the NOL network provides a convenient and reliable service, always provided the user is in close proximity to a base station. 4.1 NOL - Users and Levels of Use NOL has significant numbers of users - around 2,300 users and over 30,000 user sessions each month on average. Synetrix have produced detailed reports each month on the use being made of NOL. Based on these data we have identified that while there are significant seasonal differences, overall there as been a gradual upward trend in usage. This has occurred despite there having been minimal promotion of the NOL service. NOL Usage Trend 35,000 30,000 NOL Sessions per Month 25,000 20,000 Actual Trend 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Oct-06 4.2 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 NOL Network Overview This section is copied from the Norfolk Openlink Service Description Document, section 2.1. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 10 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Sector 4 NCC-SS4-APM300-GWc 172.20.14.4 NCC-SS4-APM300-GWb 172.20.14.3 Client DHCP 192.168.14.65/26 Norfolk Openlink Project Network Diagram NCC-SS4-APM300-GWd 172.20.14.5 Client DHCP 192.168.14.128/26 Client DHCP 192.168.14.192/26 Sector 8 NCC-SS8-APM300-GW 172.20.18.2 VLAN 14 VLAN 14 PoE VLAN 14 PoE PoE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Client DHCP 192.168.18.0/24 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 NCC-SS4-APM300-GWa 172.20.14.2 24 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED MODE 10.0.10.43 NCC-SS4-2950-2 Comms Rm 100BaseFX VLAN 10,14 Roof PoE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 PoE Client DHCP 192.168.14.0/26 VLAN 14 VLAN 18 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED MODE Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST 10.0.10.42 NCC-SS4-2950-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 172.20.15.2 10.0.10.41 VLAN 10,14 Forum Trust NCC-SS3-APM300-GW 172.20.13.2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Client DHCP 192.168.19.0/24 14 LES10LR 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 MC PoE 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS NCC-SS6-2950-1 VLAN 10,16 VLAN 13 MC VLAN 20 PoE 30Mbps P2P Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED NTE Client DHCP 192.168.20.0/24 VLAN 19 PoE NTE 13 172.20.20.2 10.0.10.81 MODE 10.0.10.62 PoE Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 24 1 RPS SYST STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED MODE MODE 10.0.10.92 NCC-SS9-2950-1 NCC-SS10-2950-1 VLAN 10,19 10.0.10.102 VLAN 10,20 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 4 Sector 10 NCC-SS10-APM300-GW 172.20.19.2 VLAN 16 VLAN 10,15 VLAN 15 3 Sector 9 NCC-SS9-APM300-GW NCC-SS8-OS-NCH Orthogon Spectra 10.0.10.40 2 24 Sector 3 NCC-SS4-AN50-NNUH 1 23 VLAN 10,18 Client DHCP 192.168.16.0/24 18Mbps P2P PoE SYST 22 PoE NCC-SS6-APM300-GW 172.20.16.2 NNUH Client DHCP 192.168.15.0/24 21 10.0.10.82 NCC-SS8-2950-1 Sector 6 NCC-SS4-AN50-UEA 20 MODE Sector 5 NCC-SS5-APM300-GW 19 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED SYST MODE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED MODE NCC-SS5-2950-1 10.0.10.52 NCC-SS3-2950-1 10.0.10.32 NCC-SS6-AN50-NCH Client DHCP 192.168.13.0/24 NCC-SS3-AN50-UEA NCC-SS9-AN50-NCH 10.0.10.61 City College Earlham Library UEA 49Mbps P2MP NCC-SS10-AN50-NCH 10.0.10.101 Broadlands Council 10.0.10.80 VLAN 11 10.0.10.90 PoE 1 SYST 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 MODE 10.0.10.2 1 PoE SYST RPS MASTR STAT DUPLX SPEED STACK MODE 172.20.11.2 VLAN 10,17,21 2 3 4 5 6 7 23 Client DHCP 192.168.12.0/24 24 PoE VLAN 12 NCC-CORE-2950-1 NCC-CORE-3750-1 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Catalyst 3750 SERIES 23 24 1X 11X 13X 23X 2X 12X 14X 24X 1 10.0.10.1 Alvarion SU54 2 PoE NOL Backhaul NCC-SS2-APM300-GW 172.20.12.2 VLAN 100-145 Alvarion SU54 BBL Managed Backhaul Sector 7 VLAN 10,19,20 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 15 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED GigE NCC-SS7-APM300-GW 172.20.17.2 Sector 2 PoE 10.0.10.30 10Base-T/100Base-TX NCC-SS1-APM300-GW NCC-SC2-AN50 NCC-SC1-AN50 VLAN 10,13,14,15,16 Client DHCP 192.168.10.0/24 49Mbps P2MP NCC-SS8-OS-FT Orthogon Spectra VLAN 10,18 Sector 1 Client DHCP 192.168.17.0/24 10.0.10.91 Lancaster House 10.0.10.31 Norfolk County Hall Sector 11 SNDC Backhaul NCC-SS11-APM300-GW 172.20.21.2 VLAN 21 VLAN 17 PoE PoE Alvarion SU54 Orthogon Spectra PoE PoE VLAN 10,17 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Client DHCP 192.168.21.0/24 VLAN 10,21 Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 1 SYST Catalyst 2950 SERIES 10Base-T/100Base-TX 24 1 RPS SYST STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 RPS STRT UTIL DUPLXSPEED MODE MODE NCC-SS7-2950-1 10.0.10.72 NCC-SS11-2950-1 Grovesnor House 10.0.10.112 Open Youth Trust Stoke Holy Cross Name Date Client Version Matt Davies 24072006 NCC 3.0 Fig 3 Network Architecture Overview This section of the Service description provides an overview of the technical architecture, with detailed descriptions of the network and system elements of the service. The Norfolk Openlink network provided by Synetrix offers geographically limited IEEE 802.11b/g WiFi connectivity within the selected sub-sector areas of Norwich to users of compatible devices such as laptop computers and PDA’s (capable of supporting a java based web browser). The diagram above provides an overview of the Norfolk Openlink network architecture. The South Norfolk locations are not shown. These are accessed via a backhaul network provided by Beanstalk Broadband Limited (BBL). The BBL backhaul network is accessed through the Stoke Holy Cross radio tower using Alvarion 5.8GHz lightly licensed backhaul connections. The Stoke Holy Cross radio tower has also been used to provide backhaul to additional city centre locations (Open Youth Trust and Grosvenor House). The WiFi access is provided through the deployment of Moovera F-SERIES access points mounted on street furniture, buildings, dedicated steel bracket work and masts and where appropriate. The WiFi traffic is aggregated within sub-sectors and backhauled to Norfolk County Hall. The wireless backhaul infrastructure is centred on Norfolk County Hall. County Hall also provides the location for: A central ISP feed, based on a 100Mb/s fibre bearer from NTL, with 40Mbps overall capacity to support all phases of the project including South Norfolk communities. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 11 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Central resources including core Ethernet switches, firewall and authentication servers The wireless backhaul network connects these central resources out to the sub-sectors of F-Series, using a range of options: 2 x Redline AN50e units deployed in a point to multi-point mode, operating at 49Mb/s and connecting County Hall to: City College UEA Lancaster House Broadlands District Council 1 x Redline AN50e unit deployed in point to point mode and operating at 18Mbps, connecting Norfolk and Norwich Hospital to UEA 1 x Orthogon Spectralink 5.8GHz wireless backhaul point to point link, connecting County Hall with the Forum, operating at 30Mb/s 1 x LES 10LR circuit connecting Earlham Library via UEA, for onward link back to County Hall or by leased lines where necessary. 2 x Alvarion SU54 units, connecting County Hall to the Stoke Holy Cross Mast. These two links are used to connect : Open Youth Trust and Grosvenor House and Provide backhaul into the core Norfolk Openlink network for South Norfolk community links 9 South Norfolk locations are using ADSL for backhaul, as they were not accessible via the BBL backhaul network. The solution offers connectivity for any standards compliant clients using the IEEE 802.11b/g wireless LAN standards. This connectivity is subject to the client being within range of the RF access element of the network and that the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is sufficient to provide an acceptable link in line with receive sensitivity figures contained within the manufacturers product specifications. The quality of the RF link between the client and the serving access point will also specify the maximum raw data rate possible. If the quality of the link deteriorates then the modulation rate will drop back down in stages to the minimum 1Mb/s for 802.11b standard after which the link will fail. 4.2.1 Access Points The existing access points use IEEE 802.11b/g (WiFi) technology. This is fully compatible with all existing wireless LAN cards that one would expect to find in IT equipment (including computers, games machines, mobile phones and so forth). There is only one current development to this technology which is gaining any favour with manufacturers and this is IEEE 802.11n. IEEE 802.11n delivers connections with speeds of up to 108 Mb/s through the use of multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) technology. However given that: 802.11n devices are backwards compatible with IEEE 802.11b/g, thus all new devices will still cooperate with the existing hotspots; InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 12 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council the benefits of additional bandwidth at the access point alone are negligible (54 Mb/s as provided by IEEE 802.11g is more than sufficient given the capacity of the backhaul network and internet connection speeds); and there would be significant costs associated with replacing all the hotspot equipment, our judgement is that the benefits of a change to this technology would not be worthwhile. Other technologies which may eventually deliver services to end users (such as WiMAX, iBurst, IEEE 802.20 and others) whilst offering long term potential for enhanced throughput suffer from a lack of ubiquity in comparison to WiFi and further that they will most likely require access to licensed spectrum meaning the cost of their deployment will be significantly increased compared to licence-exempt techniques such as WiFi. Whilst such technologies may become more widespread and more common over the next 5 to 10 years, there would be significant dis-benefit in terms of ease and universality of end-user access if they were adopted in the NCC pilot before user terminals were widely available at reasonable prices. 4.2.2 Distribution Network (Norwich) The hotspots in Norwich are laid out in a series of meshes. Within the meshes, connectivity is provided through dual-band 5.4/2.4 GHz WiFi units. The connectivity between the meshes and the central hub is provided using a variety of proprietary technologies using lightly-licensed frequencies at 5.8 GHz, some of which are WiMAX compatible or WiMAX compliant. 4.2.3 Distribution Network (South Norfolk) At present, connectivity to hotspots in South Norfolk is delivered via a combination of wireless and wired (ADSL) connections. Given the sparser distribution of sites in this area and the relative cost and reliability of the different connections, a move to a fully ADSL based connection would have the benefits of: reducing reliance on BBL; simplifying and standardising connectivity; enabling connectivity at a wider range of locations by simplifying the installation of new sites. However, where such connections are at a distance from any exchange, and due to restrictions of ADSL technology, the potential speed of a wired connection may be restricted beyond that which would offer a like-for-like connection at all sites. Usage statistics for the South Norfolk sites, however, indicate that the number of connections is lower and hence a reduced total connection speed for such sites may not adversely impact user experience of the service. If higher speeds were to be offered, however (i.e. above the speed available through the ADSL connection), an alternative technology may be more appropriate. End of extract from Norfolk Openlink Service Description Document. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 13 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 5. Competition in the Norfolk WiFi Market We have reviewed the competitive offers available in the Norfolk Internet radio access market. We conclude that NOL offers far greater coverage and availability than any competing supplier. The information gathered has also been used to inform assumptions about prices and volumes in the business modelling. We have reviewed the competitive offers, including internet cafes, commercial wireless offerings e.g. BT Openzone, T-Mobile, etc., GSM and its data derivatives GPRS and EDGE, the 3G operators’ data service offerings, and any other available services, summarising coverage, service parameters, prices, etc. The companies already in the market could potentially be future partners in the development of the Norfolk access network; we have had discussions on this matter with several of them during this project. It is notable that during the NOL pilot the number of WiFi hotspots in Norwich and other parts of Norfolk has grown significantly. NOL has not noticeably suppressed the development of supply. Details of the competitor review are provided in Annex C. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 14 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 6. 6.1 Demand for WiFi Services in Norfolk Imperial College Market Survey The results of a recent survey of NOL users and non-users undertaken for NCC are reported separately in the Imperial College report, and it is worth summarising the main findings here. The survey of NOL users and non-users was carried out in November 2007 by Imperial College. In summary NOL is perceived very favourably. Users believe that NOL improves their productivity - 62% stating that they gained between 1 and 2 hours or even more productive work each week. Users also report that NOL improves their quality of life and significantly enhances the attractiveness of Norwich as a place to live and work. As many as 88% of user respondents stated they would prefer to live or work in a city with such services, either to a great or very great extent. However, it was also concluded that only a small minority of users (only around 1 in 10) would readily pay for the NOL service. NOL is seen as very nice to have, but not something which the great majority would be willing to pay for on a regular basis. Further, public leaders such as the local MPs see a strong benefit to the quality of life and attractiveness of Norwich and Norfolk brought by the easy availability of wireless internet access across the city and in other population centres. The Imperial College team concluded that NOL is perceived as making a strong positive contribution to the image and quality of life in Norwich and in the selected villages in South Norfolk where it has been deployed. Further details of the results of the market survey are provided in Annex D. 6.2 Types of Demand We have identified the following six actual and potential sources of demand and revenue for WiFi and other wireless access services. These form actual or potential revenue streams for a commercialised NOL. Sources of Demand and Revenue for NOL Retail wireless access users (personal and business subscribers and occasional users) Wholesale users - those whose subscription is to another service provider, but who ‘roam’ onto NOL) Advertising Revenues Sponsorship Revenues Revenues from public sector operational use Revenues from public sector projects in the fields of social inclusion, etc. We discuss the potential of each revenue source in turn below. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 15 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 6.2.1 Retail services In general there are problems of both volume and price for WiFi services. A problem with WiFi services which are required to make a commercial return is to aggregate sufficient volume of demand to make a return across all base stations sites, and to be able to charge users enough to make the return. Hotspots such as those at airports or busy railway stations may be able to generate enough volume and to charge a high enough price to make a very attractive return. However, in the situation in Norwich, there are a few such high-demand sites, and the great majority of the sites do not generate enough demand, based on retail services alone. Analysis of the usage data provided by Synetrix shows that the number of individual users per month has risen to a fairly steady level of 2,000 to 2,500 individual users and 25,000 to 30,000 sessions per month. Currently of course the service is available free-of-charge, and given the findings of the Imperial College survey that less than 10% of users would be likely to make a regular payment for the service, this means that only about 250 at most of the current customers would become regular paying users of the service. However, we judge that now the service is bedded in and teething problems have been overcome, with further marketing and promotion of the existing NOL service could achieve say 600 to 800 paying users in the near term. Coverage is a major issue for users. If the coverage were significantly increased, then we estimate that retail user numbers could be significantly increased to around 4,000 users or more in the near term. To put this figure in context, it represents only around 1% of the population of Norfolk aged 16-60. Other users could also be added under digital inclusion schemes - see below. Analysis of alternative suppliers’ WiFi offerings suggests that monthly subscriptions (excl. VAT) of around £5 per month for personal users and £10 per month (excl. VAT) for business users could be feasible, provided NOL was linked into a national WiFi or other wireless access service. 6.2.2 Wholesale Services The UK market for WiFi-based services has evolved to emphasise trading between service providers and network operators. Thus major players such as BT Openzone, The Cloud and T-Mobile all own and operate WiFi networks and offer retail services. However, they also trade with each other at the wholesale level - for example where BT does not have its own base stations, it may offer retail service using base stations owned and operated by The Cloud, and vice versa. Given that this trading model is already well established, as the operator with by far the most WiFi base stations in Norfolk, NOL would be an attractive regional partner offering wholesale service to the retail service providers. While this might reduce to some extent the potential for NOL to sell occasional use service directly to inbound travellers, the convenience for such travellers finding they have good coverage from their existing service provider in Norwich, and the resulting usage of NOL, would considerably outweigh the lost opportunity for NOL to make direct sales. While the wholesale price will be considerably below the retail price, there are compensating savings in selling and service costs, so the wholesale activity can be quite profitable. 6.2.3 Advertising Services There are several different models for advertising revenues, but only a few of these would result in revenue flowing directly to NOL. A good example is provided by Free- InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 16 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Hotspot.com, whereby users of WiFi services can receive the service free-of-charge in the form of an ad-supported Internet access service. The model is similar to that of commercial television, with the advantage that the advertisements presented can be focused depending on the current web activity of the service user. For example, a user searching restaurant listings can be shown advertisements for local restaurants. FreeHotspot have made a presentation to NCC and have estimated that some £52,000 to £94,000 per annum of advertising revenue could be generated on the existing NOL network, of which 40% would flow to NOL itself. These estimates are based on 5,000 individual users and 40,000 sessions per month. 6.2.4 Sponsorship Revenues A number of major private sector organizations based in Norfolk were interviewed in the Imperial College survey, and some expressed favourable attitudes towards sponsorship; they could envision the marketing benefits of promoting themselves over the service, especially where they could use the service to support their own staff. In the business plans we have developed, we have not relied heavily on sponsorship revenues, as we feel that unless the service attracts significantly larger numbers of users and revenues than it has done during the pilot, sponsors will not be interested to support it. In our view sponsorship could be a minor but useful source of funds - which we estimate could amount to between 5% and 10% of total revenues. Further, if there is an advertising supported element to the service, it may be difficult to enlist sponsors also. 6.2.5 Revenues from Norfolk public sector bodies as users of NOL This could be a very significant source of revenue for NOL, provided NOL’s coverage, reliability and quality of service are sufficient for the often ‘mission-critical’ applications envisaged. Feedback from the public sector workshop showed that public sector bodies had not been willing so far to develop applications which would use NOL for two main reasons - its pilot nature and its patchy coverage and indifferent service quality. However, there was significant interest in using it if these issues were to be overcome. There are about 30,000 public sector employees in Norfolk as a whole. If coverage issues are not overcome, and NOL continues with the present coverage, then we have estimated that at most 400 public sector individual subscriptions would be taken out. It is worth noting that only non-time critical applications could be supported - those that would depend on store-and-forward types of communications whereby a mobile worker would carry a terminal which would automatically send stored messages or data and receive messages or synchronise with a server when in coverage. If the coverage were to be significantly improved, for example to cover all of Norwich City and significant areas in Norfolk as a whole, then a number of public services could be properly and efficiently supported by the network. In this case we would expect a much higher level of usage, and have postulated that up to 900 individual public sector users could be connected. We note that Edinburgh for example uses a similar radio access network for traffic enforcement mobile cameras and checking tax discs etc., and in Milton Keynes for example schools have been cost-effectively connected to the Internet using a WiMAX network. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 17 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council With enough coverage and capacity in Norfolk, organisations such as health centres or schools (we note that Norfolk schools have their own centrally run network) could be connected, as could CCTV cameras, parking meters etc., further increasing demand. 6.2.6 Revenues from public sector projects in the fields of social inclusion As reviewed above, public policy towards social inclusion and the provision of public services such as education and health is increasingly reliant on “digital inclusion”. While digital inclusion schemes can and do take many forms, there are already many examples around the country of public intervention to address market failure. For example, broadband access may be offered on a subsidized basis in remote areas to provide a basis for home-working or sustainable small businesses, schemes are being developed to provide access for school students to educational resources from home. For Norfolk, we have assumed that some form of subsidized broadband access service would be provided to individuals or households identified as being in need. Whether only the communications part, or home computers as well would be provided remains to be determined under the details of such schemes. Since commercial developments of NOL would address primarily the communications part, we have restricted ourselves to consideration of the communications part only. Clearly for the wireless access to be used for these purposes the network would need to be accessible and to cover the homes requiring service. Therefore we have assessed that only under Option 2 would significant numbers of home users be served. The existing service reaches only a small minority of homes in Norfolk. 6.3 Forecasts of future usage The Imperial College survey provides the principle data source for the forecasts. Forecasts of future customer numbers and usage have been prepared based on the results of these surveys. Forecasts are presented for two cases - the existing network continuing with its existing coverage and capacity (Option 1), and a greatly increased coverage provided by WiMAX or a similar radio technology, reaching the majority of the populated areas in Norfolk, and covering approximately 25% of the surface area (Option 2). We are aware that while usage has grown to a reasonable level, the existing NOL network is only approximately 11% loaded at busy times, and the number of individual users is quite small, suggesting that there is plenty of room for growth if the right market segments can be attracted. Based on the user surveys and the existing user data, we forecast the number of future users of NOL service as follows: InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 18 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council User Summary (000s) Option 2: BWA and WiFi Case Business Users Personal Users Occasional Users “Digital Inclusion” users (subsidised) Public Sector Individual Users Public Sector sites Option 1: WiFi Only Case Business Users Personal Users Occasional Users “Digital Inclusion” users (subsidised) Public Sector Individual Users Public Sector sites 2008 2009 2010 2011 1.4 2.0 7.0 4.0 0.3 0.1 1.8 2.5 9.1 7.0 0.5 0.2 2.2 3.1 10.9 10.5 0.7 0.2 2.5 3.5 12.6 13.7 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 - 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 - 0.4 0.5 1.8 0.7 0.3 - 0.4 0.6 2.0 0.8 0.4 - As can be seen, the numbers of users of the NOL network as it stands (Option 1) are forecast to remain at low levels, reflecting the feedback from the user surveys that while many individual users are happy with the service and would like to see it continue, only around 10% are likely to subscribe, and the feedback from the public sector that these organisations require much greater coverage before converting applications. However, we forecast a much higher take-up if the perceived problems with the existing system (coverage, reliability and access speed) are solved through additional network investment, as discussed under Option 2. In particular it would be possible to reach the great majority of the population and public sector sites, facilitating “digital inclusion” schemes and the connection of sites such as health centres, libraries, offices and schools. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 19 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 7. Costs of Radio Access network provision Regardless of the specific technology used, the costs of providing a radio access service fall into two categories - capital expenses and operating or recurrent expenses. To ascertain which options, if any, for NOL development are likely to prove viable, we have built a forecasting model to estimate the revenues and costs of each option. The cost components of the model include the following: Capital Cost Items Operating Cost Items Network Management System Network management Service Infrastructure Network maintenance Backhaul Backhaul Total Internet Peering Link Internet capacity Radio Sites Site rental and power Customer service and billing system Insurance G&A and Technician PCs Selling costs Maintenance Spares Customer service and billing Design and Engineering Depreciation The cost elements of the business model have been developed to cover each of these cost areas, and to include the revenues, hence to calculate the possible rate of return under various scenarios for NOL development. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 20 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 8. NOL Options for Future Development The objectives of NCC and more general public policy objectives suggest four options for NOL development: Option 1: Convert NOL into a commercial wireless data service with similar coverage and technology as the NOL pilot, with NCC’s role being that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 2: Develop NOL into a commercial wireless data service with greater coverage to support public sector applications and to provide a commercially viable service to the public at large (this would almost certainly require migration to a new radio system such as mobile WiMAX) with NCC’s role again being that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 3: Develop NOL to deliver both wireless mobile and fixed broadband services to businesses and households, filling gaps not addressed by existing providers. This option would address much broader digital connectivity goals - the challenge would be to find a way to fill the provision gaps in a timely and costeffective way. NCC’s role would again be that of ‘anchor tenant’. Option 4: Close NOL down - allow commercial suppliers to provide services as they see fit. The following table summarises and compares the four Options for NOL development. It specifies the options in terms of geographic coverage, service offering, technical specification and regulatory requirements. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 21 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Options Specification – geographic coverage, service offer, technical specification and regulatory requirements Option Geographic coverage Option 1: Continue with NOL network and service as is. Parts of Norwich City, plus about 20 village hotspots in South Norfolk. WiFi access to Internet. WiFi access with mixed backhaul (WiFi mesh and WiMAX). As today. Option 2: Extend coverage and services. WiFi coverage as is (consider replacing South Norfolk with WiMAX). WiFi Internet access. WiFi access with WiMAX access overlay. Availability of WiMAX spectrum suitable for mobile access. WiMAX overlay extending to all major population areas (approx 25% of the area of Norfolk). Service offering WiMAX Internet access. Support of applications such as CCTV cameras, traffic control systems, etc. Technical specification Backhaul using combination of available technologies. Regulatory requirements Radio data services for health centres, libraries, offices, schools and other sites. Option 3: Build on Option 2 to address the ‘2nd generation broadband divide’ by, introducing additional technology to provide fixed bandwidth to households and businesses outside of 2.5km line-length from local exchange. As Option 2 plus mix of additional broadband wireless access capacity and fixed network capability e.g. build-out of ADSL DSLAMs to bring rural areas within the 2.5 kms of DSLAM locations. Option 4: NOL Close down. None. WiFi Internet access WiMAX Internet access Support of applications such as CCTV cameras, traffic control systems, etc. Radio data services for health centres, libraries, offices, schools and other sites Broadband access for rural and urban Norfolk. InterConnect Communications Ltd None. WiFi access with WiMAX access overlay DSLAM network with high speed capability in multiple rural locations Availability of sufficient WiMAX spectrum suitable for mobile and fixed access. Backhaul of sufficient capacity using combination of available technologies, including radio and fibre. None. None. Page 22 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 8.1 Technology used Technical issues and questions include: how much backhaul will be needed and can this be procured? what wireless technologies and spectrum will be needed and which are available? At the time of designing the pilot project, the mix of technologies deployed in the NOL network was appropriate and cost effective for delivering the hotspot type of service which was required for the service. However, requirements for connectivity are broader than just hot-spot service. Professional and public sector users and applications will require much greater levels of coverage than can be provided economically using WiFi only, and other uses such as economic access services for schools etc can be added if coverage and capacity are expanded. Radio technology has developed in the 18 months or so since NOL was designed, so technologies such as WiMAX and iBurst could now provide alternative or additional access connectivity options. As far as backhaul is concerned, the radio solutions used are good but greater adoption of ADSL connections where they are available and where no connectivity to any of the meshes or the central hub is possible, would allow for wider deployment of the service at reasonable cost. Options 2 and 3 are predicated on using an appropriate mix of network technologies to achieve the required coverage and service delivery in an economic way. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 23 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 9. Evaluation of Options for NOL Development The evaluation of the Options for NOL development has included: Support of public policy goals Costs, revenues and financial return Review of economic and policy benefits Technology used Adherence to competition policy Ownership and Feasibility - who will take it on, how and when? The evaluation of the Options includes estimates of the revenues and costs for different future options to deploy and expand the network and compared them, for inclusion in the outline business plan. Since Option 3 is not favoured for various qualitative reasons, and Option 4 only requires a close down, the detailed financial analysis has been concentrated on Options 1 and 2. We have modelled the first two options in detail to determine which would be financially feasible, and hence which would likely attract a commercial bidder to take over the system without the need for ongoing financial support. The model also enables an estimate of the ongoing subsidy required to fund a given option, if any. 9.1 Option 1: Convert NOL into a commercial service with similar coverage The Imperial user survey findings, the consultations and research the team has undertaken and reviewed all suggest that it is either hard to or not appropriate to charge users very much or anything at all for WiFi hotspot service – there may be some revenue opportunities from WiFi but by and large, these are limited both in numbers of paying customers and in the amount each would pay per month. Internal local authority and public service markets may provide significant sources of revenue - NOMAD projects etc. But it is clear from the public sector workshop that coverage would need to be significantly improved to support CCTV, mobile workers, remote monitoring, auto caretaker, etc. Instead, it is more appropriate that major stakeholders in ‘the place’ should sponsor the project, because it adds to the offer of the place, which in turn is of fundamental benefit to them – free WiFi as standard will increasingly be expected by tourists, inward investors, global knowledge workers, staff and students of universities. We’ve already identified a handful of strategic organisations/ stakeholders in the area that fall into this category and who should/could/might sponsor some of the operating costs. Key issues for achieving Option 1 are: whether to continue in current ownership, or to sell, or to bring in a joint venture partner/ investor how to increase revenues and particularly sponsorship, given the place-value of WiFi. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 24 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 9.1.1 Option 1: Legal and Procurement Requirements If commercialized, the procedure used should follow the OJEU competitive dialog process. We recommend this since as can be seen from the financial analysis, it is expected that an ongoing subsidy of the service from public sector funds would be required. 9.2 Option 2: Develop NOL into a wireless data system with greater coverage Under Option 2, the coverage of NOL would be expanded considerably, and capacity would be added to provide connectivity not only for mobile and nomadic users, but for applications such as connecting CCTV cameras, schools and other public sector organisations and sites. There are a number of technical options for doing this. Simply expanding the WiFi coverage is probably not an economic solution. WiFi is good for providing ‘hotspots’ at reasonable cost, but if continuous coverage is required over a large area, then WiFi provides a very poor solution. 9.2.1 The WiMAX option WiMAX (being standardised by the IEEE as 802.16) is a suite of wireless technologies which aim to deliver broadband connectivity to a variety of different users and for a variety of different uses. At present, focus is on the delivery of fixed or nomadic2 services rather than for providing full mobility, though a fully mobile variant is being finalised. Big name providers such as Intel, AT&T and Nokia are pushing for WiMAX services to be licensed and rolled-out and as such there is significant momentum for its implementation. One of the claimed benefits of WiMAX is its ability to provide connectivity ‘beyond line of sight’, that is to say that the units connected to the network do not have to be able to physically see each other, which is a requirement of most existing broadband access technologies with ranges more than a few hundred metres. However, the throughput of WiMAX connections falls rapidly as distance and the number of obstructions increases. WiMAX is a high power radio technology and the expectation is that commercial WiMAX services will be deployed only in licensed spectrum bands, meaning there may be significant cost associated with the licensing of the service. The fact that a variant of WiMAX has recently been adopted as one of the ITU’s core 3G technologies points towards the aspirations of WiMAX as a competing licensed, commercial technology rather than a low-cost hotspot enabling one. WiMAX provides a promising route forward for NOL as the requirement for coverage greater than that which can be economically provided by WiFi alone is significant among all three major user groups - business, government and personal. A business model which adds WiMAX access to the existing WiFi network infrastructure (which already includes some WiMAX compatible and compliant equipment) would provide the additional coverage required. Option 2 is therefore based on continuing the WiFi in the city centre areas where it is appropriate, and adding an overlay of WiMAX or a similar radio access technology which would provide good coverage to fixed and mobile terminals at reasonable cost. The option studied includes provision of 45 area coverage base stations. Assuming an effective radius 2 Nomadic in this sense referring to users who move from one location to another and who require connectivity over a wide area but who do not use their equipment whilst on the move. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 25 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council of 3 kms for each base station, this would provide for coverage of an area of 1,272 km 2, which is some 25% of the total area of Norfolk. This would allow coverage of the great majority of the City, towns, and other larger inhabited areas in Norfolk. With expanded NOL coverage and capacity, the services offered will become significantly more attractive to both public and private sector organisations and to personal users, as well as supporting public sector digital inclusion aims. 9.2.2 Public Sector Applications supported by Option 2 A number of public sector applications could be carried by an expanded NOL network, which generate revenues, save costs, or improve productivity, e.g.: traffic enforcement, parking mobile working, e.g. housing repairs replacement of leased lines with wireless links, for example for health centres, libraries, offices, and schools Telecare and other medical applications. 9.2.3 Private Sector Applications supported by Option 2 A number of public sector applications could be carried by an expanded NOL network, which generate revenues, save costs, or improve productivity, e.g.: Non-Commercial Applications Providing Social Benefits Provision of free or discounted internet access to defined social groups. Commercial Applications Public internet access Residential services (e.g. voice services, internet access) which may generate revenues from users or advertisers or a combination of the two Services to SMEs (e.g. voice services, internet access). 9.2.4 Benefits of Option 2 The essence of Option 2 is to convert NOL from a pilot into a commercially viable service. There would be full coverage of Norwich City enabling applications there to be supported on a city-wide basis. There would also be a much enhanced continuing stream of benefits for the rural areas in Norfolk such as South Norfolk provided by the much greater coverage of the proposed WiMAX overlay system. Because the service would be on a commercial footing, providing a more reliable service and much better coverage would not only be feasible but also essential to meet the requirements from the public sector as ‘anchor tenant’ Other benefits of the service would then flow in the covered areas. The danger that rural population centres would not be served could be avoided by making defined levels of rural coverage a requirement in the service contract. In effect, through the anchor tenant role and the revenues flowing from that, NCC could provide the mechanism whereby the profits generated in Norwich City could be used in part to fund coverage of specific under-provided places or areas. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 26 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 9.2.5 Option 2: Legal and Procurement Requirements As the financial analysis shows, Option 2 should allow a commercial operator to make an adequate return. Therefore under this Option NOL could be offered to commercial bidders, to be operated under a contract in which NCC acted as ‘anchor tenant’. The procedure used would be competitive tendering to acquire the NOL system, together with a supply contract specifying minimum levels of service and coverage to be achieved to support defined public sector requirements. Of course the successful bidder would be free to exceed these minimum requirements if it saw a commercial opportunity in doing so. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 27 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 9.3 Option 3: Develop NOL to deliver both wireless mobile and fixed broadband services Demand for broadband access is growing, both in terms of numbers of access services, and the speed required. Sources of supply to meet this demand are generally labelled as ‘Next Generation Networks’ (NGN) with high-speed access being called ‘Next Generation Access’ (NGA) in Ofcom terms. As discussed in section xxx below, Government is concerned that without appropriate intervention, a new kind of digital divide may emerge, such that the more rural and remote areas of the country will lag significantly behind in the move to NGA. The most important digital connectivity gap, across the UK regions, including in Norfolk will be in the provision of 2nd and 3rd generation broadband. Thus Government priorities are to: Fill 2nd generation gaps – these will likely occur just as much in Norwich as in the rural areas – in this respect the network could provide circa 8 Mb/s to businesses and households too far from their local exchange to get this level of bandwidth Deploy near ubiquitous 3rd generation broadband (NGA) in the near future. Failure to address these issues is expected to have significant adverse economic and social consequences. We have explored as Option 3 the concept that NOL should be developed specifically to address these broadband access priorities. However, there is a concern that in reality such a broadband project should be developed and managed separately as it would not be sufficiently closely related to NOL as it stands, and the coverage, capacities and technologies required would be very different. While there may well be a need to launch such a project in Norfolk in the near-term, it was felt at this stage that linking the development of NOL to such a project would not be helpful at this stage, since the timings do not coincide. The principle points in favour of pursuing Option 3 now or in the near future are: Providing broaderband access services will be of the most economic importance to the region, whether all in the region know this yet or not Exploring how to leverage both the physical platform and experience of operating NOL, to provide wireless (and possibly some non-wireless) fixed 2nd/3rd generation connectivity to the area, will be of particular policy and political interest. 9.3.1 Alternative Connectivity Technologies for Option 3 In addition to the various proprietary microwave link and ADSL technologies currently in use for connectivity between hotspots and the central hub, a number of possible alternative technologies exist (or are in a stage of standardisation) which may proffer additional means of linking the network. WiMAX WiMAX is a suite of wireless technologies which aim to deliver broadband connectivity to a variety of different users and for a variety of different uses. The details of WiMAX technology are described above under Option 2. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 28 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Next Generation Networks Telecommunications operators across the world are developing their core networks into what is termed ‘Next Generation Networks’ (NGN). This entails replacing traditional circuitswitched networks oriented to voice telephony with IP-based infrastructure, oriented to data. The advantage of such a change is that many traditional telecommunications services (telephony, internet, data services, etc) and new services (video on demand, widearea LAN, etc.) can be transported over a single core network. To the end user, the impact of the move to NGN will be the possibility of a wider range of services, delivered at significantly higher speed (10-100 Mb/s), and at lower cost. There are also significant benefits of NGN for the operators in terms of greater flexibility and lower unit costs. As far as access networks are concerned, the development of NGN is expected to come first in larger city environments where the density of demand is greatest. This would lead to a new urban rural digital divide, which thus raises the opportunity for this Option 3, a project similar in principle and objectives to NOL to be launched in Norfolk in the near future to mitigate this problem by focused development of broadband access in Norfolk. 9.3.2 Option 3: Legal and Procurement Requirements While a full analysis has not been undertaken, Option 3 should also allow a commercial operator to make an adequate return. Therefore, if Option 3 were pursued, NOL could be offered to commercial bidders, to be operated under a contract in which NCC acted as ‘anchor tenant’. The procedure used would be competitive tendering to acquire the NOL system, together with a supply contract specifying minimum levels of service and coverage to be achieved to support defined public sector requirements. Of course the successful bidder would be free to exceed these minimum requirements if it saw a commercial opportunity in doing so. 9.4 Option 4: Close NOL down Option 4 is the fall-back Option, which is only relevant if no other feasible development of NOL can be found. Option 4 would only have net benefits if it avoided the need for ongoing subsidy by NCC (or other agencies such as EEDA). Since it appears that Option 2 will be commercially feasible, and will provide a route whereby NOL could be run by a private sector entity, then the need to close NOL down is avoided. 9.4.1 Option 4: Legal and Procurement Requirements There would be no legal or procurement requirements, simply a close-down of the existing pilot contract. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 29 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 10. Annex A: Procurement and Operation Issues 10.1 Adherence to state aid and competition policy As noted above it is necessary under state aid rules to commercialise (or close) the NOL system at the end of the pilot period. We have established through the financial and technical analysis tat under some options at least it is likely that a private sector operator would be willing to acquire the pilot system. The NOL pilot is provided under as arrangement whereby NCC has a contract with ADIT North East, and the supplier (Synetrix) also has contract with ADIT North East. The requirements for commercialisation differ depending on the final ownership of the network. If the network is sold to a private sector operator and the public sector has no further interest in the network, then the only issue will be the method of disposal (i.e. ensuring a fair and fully open sales process to avoid creating a state aid, usually achieved via advertising in the OJEU). Regarding future operation, this will then be a solely private sector issue. The requirements will be those that apply to any and every privately owned network, as directed by Ofcom. If however public sector remains in ownership, retains a stake in the network, or imposes operational and service requirements on the purchasers, then it will be necessary to comply with State Aid requirements and Competition policy. The disposal stage (or bringing in an investment partner) will need to follow the same open and fair OJEU process, in order to avoid any one undertaking being given unfair advantage Then, regarding operation as a retail service, the future network must avoid under-cutting other networks (thus distorting the market and future investment). This is best achieved as follows: in areas where there are similar competing services, the advice is to match the price and service level; in areas where there are as yet no similar competing services, the advice is to offer services at the estimated market price (often benchmarked against areas in Europe where similar services are provided The ideal however will be to operate the network as an ‘open access wholesale service’, enabling any and every retailer to deliver services over the network to end-users on an equal basis. The network owners may themselves also offer a retail service over the network, but it must be on the same basis as that available to other retailers. There are a number of existing public sector networks that do so and some major projects are under development. We understand that these have been approved by Brussels (DG Comp). The most high profile scheme in this regard is the North and South Yorkshire NGA project. Such a approach can include the “anchor tenant” concept whereby NCC would require that the new operator provides defined services, to defined coverage and quality standards, for the use of NCC itself, other public service entities, and for use by individuals under digital inclusion programmes for example. State aid regulations and competition policy are essentially complex legal areas. The above advice is only a guide based on practical experience. Our team does not include InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 30 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council legal advisers. It is essential that NCC takes advice on these issues from its appointed legal advisers. 10.2 Intervention protocols Any public sector action will need to adhere to a set of intervention policy protocols: public sector should focus on enabling/ supporting private sector to deliver and only if this fails, to step in with more direct intervention – market displacement rules public sector action should not benefit any one undertaking over and above others, but should benefit all equally – state aid rules. in particular, public sector action should not displace existing or future private sector activity and investment – this does not just relate to BT and Virgin Media, and the national BWA operators, but to small local providers (of which there is at least one providing fixed wireless connectivity) 10.3 Options within this framework In light of this, the public sector should focus on enabling the private sector to develop the project to meet the required objectives, but in a way that gives all of private sector equal opportunity. There are a number of ways forward (options) to consider: Private sector-led and public sector facilitates Public sector sets out the project’s objectives in terms of service levels required, target populations and broad timeframe, then does no more than bring potential private sector players together and enables/ facilitates discussions, with the aim of encouraging purchase of and appropriate investment in the existing platform such that it continues to deliver a WiFi service, but also fills 2nd generation broadband gaps and starts to deploy 3rd generation access. Private sector parties may include the major telcos, existing wireless operators, local providers and potential new entrants. Public sector may be able to soften the costs by committing anchor revenue, but this may raise state aid issues. Public sector procures If this does not work, then public sector will need to take further action. Public sector would seek to procure an open access wholesale service covering the target populations that would be open to all retailers on an equal footing – and at least two options are available to do this: Public sector places the service requirement out to tender via a fully competitive OJEC process (“OJEU competitive dialog process”). The bidder or consortium proposing an appropriate solution and requiring the least financial gap funding would be selected. Public sector may reduce the gap funding requirement by committing anchor revenues and/or revenue guarantees. The winning consortium would own and run the network, providing the service level and coverage required. It could then also use the network for other purposes. Public sector would also need to build into the contract appropriate claw back arrangements. Public sector considers establishing a special purpose vehicle and puts this to the market for investment in return for shares. The vehicle would act like a utilities provider rather than a telco, seeking long term investment at utility rates rather InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 31 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council than the shorter much higher returns usually required by telcos. It would be open to investment by telcos, large and small, ordinary companies and residents. Public sector may need to gap fund the vehicle, at least in the short term. Long term infrastructure investment funding could be sought from European Investment Bank (competitive source of loans). Partly depends on the wider region’s approach to NGA The choice of option will partly depend on the approach taken across the remainder of the region to NGA deployment. The Norwich project could act as a pilot and role model for addressing market failure in other rural/ low density parts of the region And, rather than being stand alone, could potentially be subsumed into a wider regional initiative which may enable cross subsidy from the more profitable parts of the region. 10.4 Ownership and Feasibility - who will take it on, how and when? This will be dependant on the points made in the previous two paragraphs. We suggest the following process: First public sector should decide what policy objectives it wishes the network to serve/ contribute towards – we would recommend all three The broad scale/ quantum and financial implications of these then need to be worked up and factored into the business plan, indicating whether sale will generate a positive value of whether the network will require a degree of gap funding. If the latter, either appropriate gap funding provision needs to be made or the policyorientated SLA watered down to the point where the sale value is likely to be positive Then public sector should decide if it wishes to retain a stake in the network, or to sell it (subject to the policy objectives set out in a service level requirement) The network can then be put out to the market via a fully open and competitive OJEC process. We have considered the possible ownership and control options and their implications are summarised in the main report. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 32 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 11. Annex B: Digital Connectivity Policy Priorities This Annex summarises emerging national Government policy for the provision of highspeed digital connectivity and the avoidance of “digital divides”. 11.1 Underlying principle The underlying principle is that digital connectivity and particularly higher speed digital connectivity is becoming more and more essential for businesses to remain competitive and for residents to fully engage in economic and community life. Those businesses and those residents, and more broadly, those areas, that are not able to access competitive digital connectivity, will increasingly be disadvantaged. 11.2 Economic impact In our work for EEDA, we were able to estimate that the optimisation of ICTs by the region’s businesses (of which competitive broadband services of a leading specification are an important element) would result in a £3.4 billion gross value-added (GVA) uplift over the next three to five years. 11.3 What are the gaps, how important are these and will the market provide? The key questions for policy makers are therefore: To what extent will the telecoms industry provide the digital connectivity required? In so far as it is unlikely to, what would be the resulting digital connectivity gaps? How important will any gaps in digital connectivity be to realising the optimisation of ICTs and hence the realisation of the full potential GVA uplift? What are the most appropriate and most feasible actions that public sector might take to help fill any digital connectivity gaps in an efficient and affordable way? 11.4 Three types of digital connectivity The first step in answering this is to define, in simple terms, what we mean by digital connectivity. We devised a simple but powerful categorisation for the EEDA Board, as follows: Leased lines – specialist, synchronous, high capacity, costly, therefore mainly used intensively by larger businesses and organisations – increasingly fibre based. Public Internet Access (PIA) – what most people mean when they talk about broadband: 1st generation broadband 0.5-2 Mb/s downstream, 0.25 Mb/s upstream - 95% plus of businesses and households can access 1st generation broadband mainly via ADSL (although some via cable). 2nd generation broadband circa 8 Mb/s downstream, and 1 Mb/s upstream – now being deployed by BT over their copper networks but only 50% of customers are located close enough to their local exchange to access the InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 33 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council higher bandwidths. As a result, a new digital divide is opening up, and not just in rural areas, but also in urban areas. 11.5 3rd generation broadband (Next Generation Access (NGA) in Ofcom terms) – 25, 50, or even 100Mb/s both downstream and upstream – two thirds of Europe is currently deploying this either via Fibre-to-the Curb (FTTC) or Fibre-to-thePremises (FTTP). The UK as yet does not have large scale deployment plans but the Government is worried that the UK could fall behind and loose competitiveness. Thus Minister Steven Timms has charged the RDAs with considering the issues and possible solutions for each of their regions. Wireless/mobile Main source is data via 2G and increasingly 3G mobile phone networks – limited bandwidth but very wide coverage and usage potential. Following a recent decision by Ofcom, the BWA (3.5 GHz) operators such as UK Broadband are to be allowed to offer service to mobile users. Ad hoc wireless hotspots – bandwidth varies, a few are free, many are relatively expensive for limited period of use City-wide/ area-wide WiFi grids of which NOL is an example (there are relatively few of these). Most important gaps from point of view of regional economies The most important digital connectivity gap, across the UK regions, including in Norfolk is in the provision of 2nd and 3rd generation broadband. The priorities are to: Address the 2nd generation broadband gap which is not just a rural issue, but also occurs in urban areas Deploy near ubiquitous 3rd generation broadband (NGA) in the near future. As briefly hinted in section 11.2 above, failure to address these will have significant adverse economic (and social) consequences. 11.6 How important is wireless/ mobile connectivity? 2G/3G Mobile phone coverage and associated data services are important but current availability of 2G services is already good in the majority of places in Norfolk, and 3G services are becoming more widely available. WiFi hotspots/ grids, in contrast are probably of only limited value/ importance except for cities/sites/locations that want to be world-class locations. Since other approaches such as 3G data cards are becoming more widely available, hotspot WiFi networks will increasingly need to offer high capacity wireless connectivity across the campus/ city, either free, or at competitive prices. Technologies such as WiMAX or iBurst, particularly those versions which support mobile or nomadic use, have significant potential as they combine the right mix of coverage and capacity, and promise to be cost effective means for delivering high-speed access services at least when a mass market for terminals is developed. WiMAX is already used as a means of delivering internet access at speeds up to 4Mb/s in Milton Keynes, for example, but this uses stand-alone rather than integrated transceiver/modem units. Cheap integrated WiMAX terminals are expected to be made available within the coming year or so. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 34 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 11.7 Priority for the economy The priorities for the regional economy are therefore addressing the 2nd generation PIA gap and deploying 3rd generation access, since the former will enable the latter these will to a large extent be linked programmes. It is likely that the network investment required to enable near ubiquitous 2nd generation access, such as fibre in the access network will also, with relatively limited additional investment, enable deployment of 3rd generation access. The key question is therefore, if left to the market, will 2 nd generation broadband gaps be filled and/or near ubiquitous 3rd generation connectivity be deployed within an acceptable time? 11.8 Revenues Ordinary businesses and households will and are paying consumer prices for PIA: Adoption is growing, thus generating more revenue for current 1st generation services But also, as higher bandwidth becomes more essential, it is anticipated that customers will pay more for this, but within the parameters of consumer rather than leased line pricing e.g. £50-100 per month3, for a 50Mb/s service. Discuss bundling issues here - more and more WiFi services are sold as part of a bundle, increasingly including a mobility element. Attractive to big players to increase usage. WiFi services will increasingly be seen more as part of the offer of the place, making the place special. Visitors and nomadic workers increasingly expect WiFi to be free as part of a bundle (coffee shop, hotel, library, etc), and will get annoyed when it’s not available or if they are asked to pay for it separately, often as today at inflated prices. In this circumstance WiFi is positioned more as a free utility. More appropriate for ‘the place’ to fund a largely free service. While NOL’s approach during the pilot has been to offer a free service, this was done to achieve consistency with state-aid matters and the pilot goals rather than a long-term objective. 11.9 The need for intervention If left to the market, the current thinking, of Ofcom, of DEBR, of BT and other players is that NGA deployment will be patchy, with some customers getting 100 Mb/s and some getting only 1 Mb/s. There is a common view that it will also take a long time – possibly up to 1015 years. Yet, the deployments in Europe are nearly all market led, so the market may well provide in the not too distant future, in part at least. RDAs are discussing with DEBR and Ofcom what they can do to speed/ease the process. And the Home Office is expressing interest in security the use of city networks for security purposes. But, regarding rural areas, the broad consensus is that whatever the overall regional/ national solution, the hard to reach, remote, low population density areas will be left to last, or left out altogether. 3 While this is the tariff range being suggested by the NGA deployments in Europe set out in the Ofcom consultation paper, it’s our belief that prices in a lower range for the comms part only will need to be achieved before the mass market is reached. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 35 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council These areas will require special support – projects which are already piloting this, or which provide a platform for this are therefore of particular interest at the moment. 11.10 Support of Public Policy Goals Any future network based on a development of NOL could therefore serve three sets of public policy goals at both the national and regional level: Digital connectivity goals Public sector’s own connectivity requirements Connectivity supporting specific policy initiatives. Digital connectivity goals – public sector, either via retaining a stake in the network or imposing service level requirements, can ensure that the network expands to provide 1st and 2nd generation digital connectivity to homes and businesses, across a larger footprint, particularly to those businesses and households more than 2.5km from their local exchange. In this way the project will contribute towards the policy objective of ubiquitous competitive broadband access. If WiMAX or another high capacity higher coverage radio technology is provided, in so far as suitable spectrum is available, the network would be able to offer various speeds up to a 4 Mb/s down, 2Mb/s up service4 which would represent a marked improvement in currently available DSL speeds in Norfolk. Further increases in speed might also be possible in future. Public sector’s own connectivity requirements – public sector may choose to use the network where appropriate, for fixed and mobile access. By public sector we mean not only the local authority but education, health, social services, police, fire and other services. For example: public sector may choose to procure fixed connections from the network, because it offers more competitive broadband access services or provides services not available (other than via dedicated lease line services). An example of this is where schools in Milton Keynes have switched to their local wireless network as it provides cheaper/ better services than previous providers public sector workers may use the mobile aspects of the service whilst on the move – e.g. care workers and others who work in the community public sector may use the network to provide more/ better CCTV coverage/ traffic control etc Connectivity supporting specific policy initiatives - public sector may pay for or subsidise services for certain target groups – e.g. those requiring home care and/or deprived/ excluded communities/ workless groups. Examples of this include a project in the Northeast which provides wireless connectivity (and basic IT kit and support) to households with no fixed phone line, to enable children to remotely access the school network and wider internet; and a project in Manchester which provides wireless connections (and basic IT kit and support) to households with no fixed phone line in communities with high numbers of workless people, enabling them to starting trading online via eBay Each of these has financial implications. For example: 4 Based on current commercial offer of WiMAX service in Milton Keynes InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 36 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Public sector can impose provision of these services (free or at a subsidized rate) as part of the network disposal service level agreement. The purchaser will then reflect this in the price they are prepared to pay for the network. If the requirements are substantial, this will result in a negative sale value (which can also be seen as a form of gap funding by public sector) Public sector can commit to pay the full rate for each and every service, which will represent a revenue stream for the future network. Again, the purchaser will reflect this in the price they are prepared to pay for the network Or, a combination of both may be appropriate. The North and South Yorkshire projects have followed this course. In South Yorkshire, the four local authorities have bundled up their connectivity spend into a 10 year contract which provides the future network with a major anchor revenue stream, but in return are seeking connectivity cost savings plus significant network foot print ensuring a ubiquitous service to households and businesses. InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 37 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 12. Annex C: Competition in the Norfolk WiFi Market We have reviewed the competitive offers available in the Norfolk Internet radio access market. We conclude that NOL offers far greater coverage and availability than any competing supplier. The information gathered has also been used to inform assumptions about prices and volumes in the business modelling. We have reviewed the competitive offers, including internet cafes, commercial wireless offerings e.g. BT Openzone, T-Mobile etc, GSM and 3G operators’ data service offerings and any other available services, summarising coverage, service parameters, prices, etc. The companies already in the market could potentially be future partners in the development of the Norfolk system - we have had discussions on this with several of them during this project. It is notable that during the NOL pilot the number of WiFi hotspots in Norwich and other parts of Norfolk has grown significantly. NOL has not noticeably suppressed the development of supply. Details of the competitor review are provided in the table below. Provider The Cloud Number of Hotspots in Norwich 50+ Tariffs Monthly Tariffs: £9.99 – unlimited access for any number of devices (owned by one person, not transferable) Has a roaming agreement with BT £6.99 – unlimited access tied to a single device (laptop / PDA, etc.) Suppliers’ Description of Service Offered “The coverage from each location will vary enormously depending on the type of location, but with the exception of any payphones, these are indoor hotspots in individual locations like coffee shops.” £3.99 – unlimited access for the iPod touch. Voucher prices: 1 hour - £4.50 3 hours - £6.99 24 hours - £9.99 SMS Voucher Prices 30 mins - £4.00 60 mins - £6.00 180 mins - £9.00 KeZone 5 - Has a roaming agreement with BT Openzone Monthly Tariffs: £10 - 250 minutes £20 – 2000 minutes £30 – 4000 minutes Voucher prices: 1 hour - £6 4 hours - £10 10 days - £20 30 days - £40 InterConnect Communications Ltd Two levels of WiFi coverage are offered: 'External Set-Up' which costs a little more can cover “over 2kms in ideal conditions”. A basic hotspot can cover “up to about 90 metres” in ideal conditions. “There is Page 38 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Provider Number of Hotspots in Norwich Tariffs Suppliers’ Description of Service Offered obviously no way any WiFi service provider can offer 100% coverage, however we do our best by completing structured and informed site surveys to ensure that our hotspots are placed in ideal locations to offer the best connectivity. We use Cisco based systems as we know they offer the greatest reliability, speeds and coverage.” “The maximum speeds that our end users can reach are on business lines (significantly lower contention) with 8 Mb/s down and 832kb/s upstream.” “It is impossible for us or anyone to accurately calculate what speed our individual users are connecting at, however we use the KeConnect backbone on all our hotspots, so we know that even in busy periods, our networks are never over contended.” T-mobile Website: http://hotspot.t-mobile.com/ 19 (3 are BT Openzone payphones) Monthly Tariffs: £20 – unlimited use £10 (existing customers only) – unlimited use These both include 300 minutes to use at BT Openzone WiFi locations) Vouchers: £ 5 – 1 hour £10 – 24 hours £40 – 30 days Mobile charges: 75p for 10 minutes BT Openzone 15 www.btopenzone.com (there are actually 75 InterConnect Communications Ltd Monthly Tariffs: £10 – 250 minutes £25 – 4000 minutes Page 39 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council Provider Vodafone Partnered with BTOpenzone Suppliers’ Description of Service Offered Number of Hotspots in Norwich Tariffs hotspots by BT Openzone but the operator is not BT Openzone, it’s either Cloud, Kezone, TMobile or iBAHN. Vouchers: £6 -1 £10 24 £27 10 £40 - 30 days 16 – (5 are BT Openzone payphones) Once you’ve registered, charges are added to your Vodafone Mobile Connect bill or mobile phone bill at the following rates: www.online.vodafone.co.uk hour hours days Per minute (for less than 2 hours a month): 20p a minute (ex VAT) 30 minutes - £3.50 60 minutes - £6.00 120 minutes - £9.00 Surf and Sip – Coffee Shops Number in Norfolk not known Annual Membership £30 per month, with a one year agreement Monthly £40 per month Pay-As-You-Go £10 – 24 £30 – 7 £50 – 30 £150 – 365 days hours days days Prepaid Internet cards 30 minute and 120 minute cards - £5 per hour InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 40 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council 13. Annex D: Summary of Imperial Market Survey The results of a recent survey of NOL users and non-users undertaken for NCC have been reported separately (ref) but it is worth summarising the main findings here. The survey of NOL users and non-users was carried out in November 2007 by Imperial College. In brief summary NOL is perceived very favourably. Users believe that it improves their productivity - 62% stating that they gained between 1 and 2 hours or even more productive work each week. Users also report that NOL improves their quality of life and significantly enhances the attractiveness of Norwich as a place to live and work. As many as 88% of user respondents stated they would prefer to live or work in city with such services, either to a great or very great extent. However, it was also concluded that only a small minority of users (only around 1 in 10) would readily pay for the NOL service. NOL is seen as very nice to have, but not something which the great majority would be willing to pay for on a regular basis. Further, public leaders such as the local MPs see a strong benefit to the quality of life and attractiveness of Norwich and Norfolk brought by the easy availability of wireless internet access across the city and in other population centres. The Imperial College team concluded that NOL is perceived as making a strong positive contribution to the image and quality of life in Norwich and in the selected villages in South Norfolk where it has been deployed. “Our analysis is based on a combination of telephone interviews, a workshop bringing together different public sector organisations based in Norfolk and a survey of 218 people (151 Openlink existing users and 67 non-users). Openlink is perceived very favourably. Respondents who use the service believe that it improves their productivity - 62% stating that they gained between 1 and 2 hours or even more productive work each week. They also reported that it improves their quality of life and that it significantly enhances the attractiveness of Norwich as a place to live and work. 88% of user respondents stated they would prefer to live or work in city with such services, either to a great or very great extent. We have identified two groups of users: Those who use Norfolk Open Link as a free alternative to subscribing with a service provider, or truly because of affordability, Those who are out and about, and need mobile access to the internet for personal or business applications. The willingness of existing users to pay for a similar service in the future is around 40%, but this figure combines those stating they are likely to subscribe to a fee based service to some extent, a great extent or a very great extent. When we discount those who state to “some extent” we see that less than 10% are likely to convert in practice. This is consistent with surveys in other cities such as our survey for the City of London. The likelihood of taking out a subscription does not vary depending on general attitude, employment, demographics, or frequency of usage. While people say they are delighted with the service, they are not prepared to pay for it. Even among those who access the Internet exclusively through the Open Link and use it almost continuously, only 20% state that they are most likely to pay for the service. Both firms and public sector organisations in Norfolk are experiencing a growth in the number of mobile or field based staff. There is evidence of a trend towards multi-functional front line staff, especially for public service workers. A number of private sector InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 41 Options for Norfolk Open Link - DRAFT Final Report Norfolk County Council organisations have undertaken trials or pilots of mobile applications with various devices over various networks, typically mobile cellular network. They report that they are unlikely to rush to WiFi as a technology, and move from existing mobile service providers as they have a non-negotiable requirement for ubiquitous coverage, as well as a need for simplicity in their contractual relationships. They do not want to fragment their communications needs to multiple service providers based on the technology of the network, but instead have one vendor who makes the technological base of the network transparent to the user. Their need is for ubiquitous and seamless coverage, regardless of technology, and simplicity in vendor relationships. This means that if a private firm takes the Open Link over, it would need to develop partnership with other service providers to ensure seamless roaming over its infrastructure. Moreover, due to the nature of their business, the organisations we talked to have strong concerns over privacy and security. From a public sector perspective, there is a need for a clear strategy about coverage. This would allow organisations to set their expectations and start experimenting with trial applications. Plenty of potential applications were discussed, and it emerges that there is a need for a common platform across all public sector applications. This is another indication of the trend towards multi-functional front line staff as we found with private sector organisations. Free access in public buildings such as hospitals, city halls, and libraries, would also provide a medium to deliver message to the general public such as health and safety, or fire prevention messages. The initiative, as a pilot, is applauded by the general public, private firms and public organisations. Nevertheless, there is a general aversion from the private sector to see the public sector operating such a network on a full-scale and long term basis. The public sector could play a role without being involved in operational matters. A number of private sector organisations had favourable attitudes towards sponsorship; they could envision the marketing benefits of promoting themselves over the service, especially where they could use the service to support their own staff. This should be further explored.” InterConnect Communications Ltd Page 42