A Note on the Growth Sensitivity of Poverty
Across Brazilian States
Marcelo Neri1
Abstract
This short note estimates the sensitivity of poverty to changes in mean per capita
family income using Brazilian State level data. We calculate the growth elasticities of
poverty in two alternative ways: first, we apply directly the elasticity formula across
different states. The GDP based average growth elasticity of poverty of our basic poverty
measure, P1 using a low poverty line corresponds to –0.56 where14 of the 21 states
analyzed present a negative growth elasticity of poverty. The corresponding statistics for
P0 and P2 amounts to –0.58 and –0.27, respectively. When we use alternative poverty
lines for P1 we found 0.12 and –0.51 for the indigence line and the high poverty line,
respectively. . In general, per capita family income based Growth elasticities are greater
in absolute values than the ones observed for GDP-based elasticities. For example, in the
case of P1 with the intermediary line, the former reaches -0.82 against –0.56 for GDPbased elasticities.
In the second approach, we use state level cross-plots and regressions to infer the
sensitivity of poverty to growth. Using a log-log specification pooling data from 1985
and 96, the gross GDP elasticity of P1 corresponds to –0.96. This simple pooled
regression explains around 89% of the variation observed in the endogenous variable.
One advantage of this second approach is to provide partial growth elasticities of
poverty net of the effects produced by investment in human capital captured by illeracy
rates and by changes in the sectoral structure of production. The introduction of these
new variables such as illiteracy rates and sectoral shares in total output presents the
expected sign but it does not turn out to be statistically different from zero at
conventional confidence levels. The GDP elasticity of P1 drops from -0.96 to --0.86 with
the introduction of the new variables.
The note also presents a series of robustness tests of the elasticities found
according to the two approaches mentioned above using different poverty measures,
different poverty lines and different functional forms.
1
I would like to thank the superb assistance provided by Mabel Cristina do Nascimento.
Summary
1. Introduction
2. The Growth-Elasticity of Poverty: Applying the Elasticity Formula
3. Growth-Elasticities of Poverty: a Regression based approach
4. Testing the Robustness of the Growth Elasticity of Poverty with respect to
Poverty Measures
5. The Growth Sensitivity of Poverty: a Regression Approach in Differences
of Logs
6. Conclusion
Appendix A: Applying the Elasticity Formula Using Per Capita Family
Income (PNAD)
Appendix B: Applying the Elasticity Formula Using Per Capita GDP (IPEA)
Appendix C: Testing the Robustness of the Regression Approach in
Differences of Logs
Appendix D: Testing the Robustness of the Function Form
A Note on the Growth Sensitivity of Poverty
Across Brazilian States
1. Introduction
Despite of the month by month macroeconomic instability observed in the
Brazilian economy during the last decade, poverty and per capita income presented
stagnant levels when one compares 1996 levels with 1985 levels (see Amadeo and Neri
(1997)). The aggregate constancy of these statistics during this period may hide existing
differences of poverty and growth trends across different sub-national levels. The main
objective of this short note is to estimate the sensitivity of poverty to changes in per
capita family income using Brazilian State level data.
The poverty data used was generated from Pesquisa Nacional de Amostras a
Domicílio (PNAD) for 1985 and 1996. The analysis will be carried using the three
standard poverty measures of the FGT class and the three alternative poverty lines
proposed in Ferreira et all. (1998). The lines are the following: R$ 65.07 (indigence line),
R$ 131.97 (low poverty line) and R$ 204.05 (high poverty line). The analysis will be
centered on the intermediary statistic according to the two dimensions analyzed that is P1
using a low line. We test the robustness of this result comparing it to the two extremes of
the two dimensions analyzed changing one at a time.
We calculate the growth elasticities of poverty in two alternative ways: first, we
calculate the elasticity of poverty with respect to growth applying directly the elasticity
formula. We use both average per capita income data generated from PNAD and per
capita GDP data from state level accounts data as alternative proxies for the intensity of
the growth process. Second, we use state level regressions to calculate the elasticities.
One advantage of this second approach is to allow us to calculate partial growth
elasticities of poverty net of the possible poverty alleviation effects produced by
investments in human capital and changes in the sectoral structure of production. The
note also presents a series of appendices that test the robustness of the elasticities found
according to the two approaches mentioned above using different poverty measures,
different poverty lines and different functional forms.
2. The Growth-Elasticity of Poverty: Applying the Elasticity Formula
We start calculating the elasticity of poverty with respect to growth applying
directly the elasticity formula. We use both average per capita income data generated
from PNAD and per capita GDP data from state level account data as alternative
measures of the intensity of the growth process.
Table 1 presents the growth elasticity of poverty between 1985 and 1996 for
different Brazilian states using PNAD per capita income measures. We take out the states
of the North region of the sample because PNAD does not cover the rural area of this
region.
1
Table 1
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.58
-0.35
0.13
-0.28
-0.93
8.02
0.18
-0.16
-0.77
-0.24
0.07
-0.18
-0.10
-0.14
-0.54
-0.90
-0.19
-0.76
-0.86
-0.21
-0.02
-0.56
-0.02
2.41
-0.49
-0.67
8.63
1.18
-0.20
-1.03
0.29
0.66
-0.46
0.36
-0.41
-0.73
-0.85
-0.44
-0.65
-0.84
-0.23
2.01
-0.27
0.38
5.82
-0.51
-0.04
-0.68
3.59
-0.20
-0.96
1.37
2.03
-0.59
0.93
-0.55
-0.76
-0.49
-0.55
-0.27
-0.68
-0.17
5.88
According to Table 1, 14 of the 21 states analyzed present a negative growth
elasticity of poverty for P1 using a low poverty line. These statistics are 17 and 14 when
we use P0 and P2 FGT measures.
The average growth elasticity of poverty of our basic poverty measure across
states corresponds to –0.56. The corresponding statistics for P0 and P2 amounts to –0.58
and –0.27, respectively. When we use alternative poverty lines for P1 we found 0.12 and
–0.51 for the indigence line and the high poverty line, respectively.
2
Table 2 replicates Table 1 except that the growth measure used in the elasticity
calculations is the per capita GDP data from IPEA.
Table 2
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Overall GDP
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.85
-1.58
0.11
-0.47
-11.20
-3.53
0.04
-0.90
-0.67
-0.12
0.04
-0.53
-0.12
-0.20
-0.67
-1.67
1.59
-0.99
-2.02
1.51
-0.06
-0.82
-0.11
2.12
-0.84
-8.09
-3.80
0.28
-1.16
-0.90
0.15
0.39
-1.34
0.42
-0.59
-0.89
-1.57
3.61
-0.84
-1.96
1.63
6.24
-0.39
1.75
5.12
-0.87
-0.47
0.30
0.85
-1.15
-0.83
0.71
1.21
-1.72
1.08
-0.81
-0.93
-0.90
4.53
-0.35
-1.60
1.18
18.24
Table 2 elasticities are higher in absolute terms than the ones presented in Table 1.
Average P1 per capita family income based Growth elasticity reaches -0.82 against –0.56
for GDP-based elasticities.
Appendix A and B present a robustness analysis of the these growth-elasticities of
poverty calculated based on different poverty measures, different poverty lines and using
both per capita family income and per capita GDP as measures for the intensity of growth
observed.
3. Growth-Elasticities of Poverty: a Regression based approach
3
We pool the data of the two years under analysis. In order to provide a direct
elasticity interpretation of the coefficients found we take logs of the different variables
used. Appendix D compares the results pound under alternative functional forms.
The Basic Model
We start calculating OLS regressions of poverty indices against per capita family
income. Once again, the analysis will be centered on the Poverty gap (P1) using a low
poverty line.
Modelling LP1Baixa by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
8.4337
0.25219 33.443 0.0000 0.9564
-0.96812 0.048239 -20.069 0.0000 0.8876
R^2 = 0.88761 F(1,51) = 402.78 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.152998 DW = 1.26
RSS = 1.193825109 for 2 variables and 53 observations
The gross GDP elasticity of P1 corresponds to –0.96. This simple pooled
regression explains around 89% of the variation observed in the endogenous variable
analyzed. Graph 1 presents a visual evidence of the fit of the regression.
4
Graph 1
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Family per capita Income)
1985 and 1996
4.50
PI85
MA8 5
PB8CE8
5 5
PI96
MA9
RN8 56
BA9
CE966
AL9 6
BA8
SE8
55
66
PE8PB9
5 PE9
P o v e r ty
4.00
SE966
RN9
PA9 6
5 6
PA8
5 MG8
GO9
AM9
6GO8
5
AC9 6
PR8 5MT9
5BR9 6
BR8
6 ES8
65 6
MT8 RO9
5 MG9
6 ES9
AM8
MS9 6
AP956 MS8 5
AP8 5SC8 5
AC8 5
PR9 6
RS8 5
3.50
RJ8 5
RS9 6
SC9 6
RR8
RR9
6 5
3.00
DF8 5
DF9 6
RJ9 6
RO8 5
2.50
SP9 6
SP8 5
2.00
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Household Per capita Income
L in e 8 5
Graphs 2 and 3 provide similar evidence presenting each year in separate in order
to facilitates the visual analysis of the data. These shows that the main outliers of the
regression are High income areas such as São Paulo and Distrito Federal and a few states
of the North region such as Roraima, Rondonia and Acre. The result for this last group of
states should be viewed with cautious since PNAD in both years does not cover the rural
areas of the north region.
P o v e r ty I n d e x ( P 1 ) - L o w
Graph 2
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Family per capita Income)
1985
4.50
PI
MA
4.00
P BCE
RN
BA
SE
PE
P A MG
GO
PR
MT
AM
3.50
BRES
MS
SC
AP
AC
RS
3.00
RJ
DF
RR
RO
2.50
SP
2.00
4.00
4.50
5.00
Household Per capita Earnings 85
Graph 3
5
5.50
6.00
L in e 9 6
P o v e r ty I n d e x ( P 1 ) - L o w
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Family per capita Income)
1996
4.50
4.00
PI
MA
BA
CE
AL
PE
PB
RN
PA
AM
3.50
GO
BR
MT
ROMGES
MS
AP
AC
PR
3.00
RS
SC
RR
DF
RJ
SP
2.50
2.00
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
Household Per capita Earnings 96
( P 1 ) - L o w
L in e
Illiteracy Rates
Given the prominent role played by human capital variables in both growth and
poverty alleviation literatures the next step is to introduce an education variable in our
framework of analysis. The variable chosen was illiteracy rate.
Graph 4 present a clear positive relationship between illiteracy rates and poverty
using pooled 85 and 96 data.
Graph 4
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Illiteracy rates)
1985 and 1996
4.50
PI85
4.00
BA96
PE96
SE96 RN96
I n d e x
PA96
3.50
AM96
P o v e r ty
RO96
3.00
DF96
RJ96
MA85
CE85
PB85
PI96
MA96
RN85
CE96
AL96SE85
BA85
PB96
PE85
MG85
PA85GO96
GO85
AC96
PR85
BR96
ES85BR85
MT96
MG96 ES96
MT85
AM85
MS96
AP96 MS85
SC85
AP85
AC85
PR96
RS85
RJ85DF85
RS96
SC96
RR85
RR96
RO85
2.50
SP96
SP85
2.00
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
Illiteracy Rate
6
-1.00
-0.50
The positive relationship between poverty and illiteracy rates presented in the
Graph 4 almost disappears when we include variable per capita income GDP in the
regression. This point is illustrated by the regression found below.
Modelling LP1Baixa by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
LAnalf
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
8.0464
0.40341 19.946 0.0000 0.8884
-0.86258 0.098552 -8.753 0.0000 0.6051
0.091880 0.074930 1.226 0.2259 0.0292
R^2 = 0.890891 F(2,50) = 204.13 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.152248 DW = 1.31
RSS = 1.158972725 for 3 variables and 53 observations
The new variable presents the expected sign but it does not turn out to be
statistically different from zero at conventional confidence levels. The GDP elasticity of
P1 drops from 0.96 to 0.86 with the introduction of the new variable.
Graph 5 illustrate this point by presenting the cross-plot of the elasticity of the
unexplained part of poverty by per capita income and illiteracy rates.
Graph 5
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income Vs. Illiteracy Rate
1985 and 1996 (Data in Logs)
0.4
R e sid u a l
AC96
DF96
BR96
DF85
0.2
ES85
P o v e r ty
GO96
ES96
MS96
MT96
MG96
PA96
RJ96
0.0
RO96
RS96
AM96 RJ85
MG85
BR85
GO85
SE96
PE96
BA96
AL96
RN96
CE96
PB96
PR85
PR96
PA85
RS85
MS85
AM85
SC85
MT85
AC85
AP96
PE85 CE85
MA96BA85 RN85
SE85
PB85
PI96
SC96
AP85
-0.2
PI85
RR85
SP96
RR96
SP85
-0.4
-3
-2.5
MA85
RO85
-2
-1.5
Illiteracy Rate
Sectoral Shares
7
-1
-0.5
Development strategies that put different weights on different sectors may yield
different poverty outcomes even when one controls for its impacts on per capita income.
We attempt now to introduce the share added by different sectors of activity to aggregate
GDP in our basic framework.
Modelling LP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
LAnalf
L(%)Ind
L(%)Ser
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
8.3275
0.44525 18.703 0.0000 0.8793
-0.92738
0.10126 -9.158 0.0000 0.6360
0.050819 0.075989 0.669 0.5068 0.0092
-0.058066 0.042072 -1.380 0.1739 0.0382
0.11972
0.11178 1.071 0.2895 0.0233
R^2 = 0.900983 F(4,48) = 109.19 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.148027 DW = 1.46
RSS = 1.051769043 for 5 variables and 53 observations
The new variables present the expected signs: higher shares of product devoted to
manufacturing decrease poverty holding per capita income and illiteracy rates constant
while the reverse movement happens when the share in services is increased. The
omitted sector is agriculture. However, once again the effects of these new variables are
not statistically different from zero. The fit of the regression does not improve much
either with the new variables while the GDP elasticity raises from –0.86 to –0.92.
Graphs 6 to 9 gives a visual idea of the relationship between shares of
manufacturing and services in GDP and poverty.
8
Graph 6
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income and Illiteracy Rate
Vs. Share of Manufacturing in GDP
0.4
R e sid u a l
AC96
DF96
BR96
DF85
0.2
SE96
ES85 PA96
ES96
BA96
MG85RN96
MG96
BR85
PA85
RJ96
PR85PR96
RJ85
RS96
BA85
PE85
RN85
RS85
SE85
SC85
AP96
GO96
MS96 MT96
GO85
PB96
AL96
PE96
CE96
RO96
CE85
MA96
P o v e r ty
0.0
PB85
AC85
MT85 PI96
MS85
AM96
AM85
SC96
AP85
RR85
PI85
-0.2
MA85
SP96
RR96
-0.4
SP85
RO85
-0.6
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
% of Manufacturing in GDP
1985 and 1996 (Data in Logs)
Graph 7
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Share of Manufacturing in GDP)
1985 and 1996
4.50
PI85
PI96 MA96
4.00
PB85 CE85
CE96
P o v e r ty
PB96
3.50
GO96GO85
MT96
MS96
MT85
MA85
AL96
PE96
BA85
SE96
RN96
PA96
MG85PA85
PR85
BR96BR85
ES85
ES96 MG96
AC96
RO96
AM96
AP96
SC85AP85
MS85
AC85
PR96
RS85
DF85
DF96
3.00
RN85
SE85
BA96
PE85
AM85
RJ85
RS96
RR85
RJ96
SC96
RR96
RO85
2.50
SP96
SP85
2.00
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
% of Manufacturing in GDP
9
-1
-0.5
0
Graph 8
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income, Illiteracy Rate
and Share of Manufacturing in GDP Vs. Share of Services in GDP
1985 and 1996 (Data in Logs)
0.4
R e sid u a l
AC96
BR96
0.2
ES96
0.0
MS85
-0.2
AL96
RJ85 RJ96
PR96
PR85
MT96
RO96
GO85
SE85 BA85 RN85
RS85
MA96
SC85
MT85
SC96
AP85
MS96
AM85
P o v e r ty
DF96
SE96
ES85
RN96
MG85
BR85
BA96
MG96
PA85
AM96 PA96
GO96
RS96
PE85
AP96
PE96
CE96
PB96
CE85
PB85
AC85
PI96
SP96
PI85
MA85
DF85
RR85
RR96
SP85
-0.4
RO85
-0.6
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
% of Services Sector in GDP
-0.4
-0.2
0
Graph 9
Log (P1 – Low Poverty Line) Versus Log (Share of Services in GDP)
1985 and 1996
4.50
PI85
MA85
RN85 BA96 MA96
SE85 BA85
SE96RN96
PA96
P o v e r ty
4.00
3.50
AM96
AM85
MS96
MS85
3.00
PB85CE85
PI96
AL96
PE85
MG85
PA85
GO96GO85
PR85BR85 ES85
BR96
MT96
MG96
MT85
RO96
AP96
SC85
AP85
PR96
RS85
CE96
PE96
PB96
AC96
ES96
AC85
RJ85
DF85
DF96
RS96
RJ96
RR85
SC96
RR96
RO85
2.50
SP96
SP85
2.00
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
% of Services Sector in GDP
10
-0.4
-0.2
0
4. Testing the Robustness of the Growth Elasticity of Poverty with respect to
Poverty Measures
We analyze the robustness of the growth sensitivity of poverty with respect to
different poverty measures and different poverty lines. The analysis will be centered in
P1 using an intermediary line value presented in the previous section.
The regressions below shows that the gross growth elasticity of poverty is higher
the more weight we give to the lower tail of the income distribution: a) when we move
from P0 to P1 this elasticity raises from –0.62 to –1.15 . b) When we move from an
indigence line of R$65 to high poverty line of R$204 this elasticity falls from –1.41 to –
0.71.
Modelling LP0Baixa by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
7.3338 0.18869 38.867 0.0000 0.9673
-0.62691 0.036093 -17.369 0.0000 0.8554
R^2 = 0.855396 F(1,51) = 301.69 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.114476 DW = 1.62
RSS = 0.6683367682 for 2 variables and 53 observations
Modelling LP2Baixa by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
8.9500
0.31245 28.645 0.0000 0.9415
-1.1551 0.059766 -19.327 0.0000 0.8799
R^2 = 0.879869 F(1,51) = 373.53 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.189558 DW = 1.03
RSS = 1.832546719 for 2 variables and 53 observations
Modelling LP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
9.8772
0.43730 22.587 0.0000 0.9091
-1.4108 0.083649 -16.865 0.0000 0.8480
R^2 = 0.847962 F(1,51) = 284.44 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.265306 DW = 0.923
RSS = 3.589760655 for 2 variables and 53 observations
11
Modelling LP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 53
Variable
Constant
LRDPC
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
7.4514
0.17411 42.797 0.0000 0.9729
-0.70850 0.033305 -21.273 0.0000 0.8987
R^2 = 0.898718 F(1,51) = 452.55 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.105632 DW = 1.42
RSS = 0.5690657323 for 2 variables and 53 observations
The Growth Sensitivity of Poverty: a Regression Approach in Differences of Logs
First Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
Graph 10 presents the cross-plots of the differences in P1 between 96 and 85
against the differences of Per capita GDP.
This section presents estimates of the sensitivity of P1 using the basic poverty line
and a Difference in logs specification. We follow the same sequence introducing new
variables as in the previous section. In the end the initial level of poverty was introduced
as an additional exogenous variable in the exercise.
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.11319 0.026778 4.227 0.0003 0.4268
DifLRDPC
-1.1091
0.13353 -8.306 0.0000 0.7419
R^2 = 0.741905 F(1,24) = 68.989 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.114774 DW = 2.01
RSS = 0.316151907 for 2 variables and 26 observations
12
Graph 10
P1 – Low Poverty Line Versus Family per capita Income
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
0.80
RO
P o v e r ty
0.60
0.40
AC
PA
AM
0.20
AP
SP
BA
GO
RR
0.00
MT
PE
BR
MS
ES
DF
MG RJ
SE
CE
RS
MA
PB PI
RN
-0.20
PR
SC
-0.40
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Household Per capita Income
Graph 10
P1 – Low Poverty Line Versus Illiteracy Rate
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
0.80
RO
0.60
P o v e r ty
0.40
AC
PA
AM
0.20
MT
GO
0.00
AP
SP
BA
SE
DF
RJ
MS
PE
BR
ES
RR
MA
CE
RS
MG
PI
PB
RN
-0.20
PR
SC
-0.40
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
Illiteracy Rate
13
0.2
0.4
0.6
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.088309 0.037538 2.353 0.0276 0.1940
DifLRDPC
-1.1350
0.13657 -8.310 0.0000 0.7502
DifLAnalf -0.091353 0.096361 -0.948 0.3530 0.0376
R^2 = 0.751611 F(2,23) = 34.798 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.115017 DW = 1.94
RSS = 0.3042623985 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Graph 11
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income Vs. Illiteracy Rate
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
0.3
AC
R e sid u a l
RO
MA
0.2
SE
P o v e r ty
0.1
PI RN
MS
PB
0.0
BR SP
MT
PE
AP
AM
CE
BA
GO
RS
DF
-0.1
PR
PA
RJ
MG SC
RR
ES
-0.2
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
Illiteracy Rate
0.2
0.4
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.079345 0.034264 2.316 0.0303 0.1960
DifLRDPC
-1.1889
0.12590 -9.443 0.0000 0.8021
DifLAnalf
0.011706 0.097152 0.120 0.9052 0.0007
DifL(%)Ind. -0.41670
0.17114 -2.435 0.0235 0.2123
R^2 = 0.804336 F(3,22) = 30.146 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.104376 DW = 1.95
RSS = 0.2396772805 for 4 variables and 26 observations
14
0.6
Graph 12
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income and Illiteracy Rate
Vs. Share of Manufacturing in GDP
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
0.3
R e sid u a l
AC
RO
MA
0.2
SE
P o v e r ty
0.1
RN
PB
PI
MS
AP
0.0
BR
SP
PECE
MT
AM
BA
RS
GO
PA
DF
RJ
-0.1
SC
RR
PR
MG
ES
-0.2
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
% of Manufacturing in GDP
P1 – Low Poverty Line Versus Share of Manufacturing in GDP
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
0.80
RO
0.60
P o v e r ty
0.40
AC
PA
AM
0.20
AP
MT
BA
MS
PE
0.00
SP
GO
BR
RR
ES
MA
CE
SE
DF
RS
PI
PB
RJ
MG
RN
-0.20
PR
SC
-0.40
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
% of Manufacturing in GDP
15
0.2
0.4
Poverty Not Explained by Per Capita Income, Illiteracy Rate
and Share of Manufacturing in GDP Vs. Share of Services in GDP
Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
AC
R e sid u a l
0.3
RO
0.2
PI
P o v e r ty
0.1
SE
RNMA
MS
PR
0.0
BR
GO
AP
RS
DF
RJ
MG
PA
-0.1
SPPB
AM
RR
BA
CE
PE
SC
MT
ES
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
% of Services Sector in GDP
0.1
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.079074 0.035388 2.234 0.0365 0.1921
DifLRDPC
-1.1850
0.14608 -8.112 0.0000 0.7581
DifLAnalf
0.010674
0.10107 0.106 0.9169 0.0005
DifL(%)Ind. -0.41902
0.17984 -2.330 0.0299 0.2054
DifL(%)Serv -0.017987
0.31622 -0.057 0.9552 0.0002
R^2 = 0.804366 F(4,21) = 21.586 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.106824 DW = 1.94
RSS = 0.2396403592 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.036356 0.027089 1.342 0.1921 0.0698
DifLRDPC
-0.66269
0.13508 -4.906 0.0001 0.5007
R^2 = 0.500719 F(1,24) = 24.069 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.116107 DW = 2.19
RSS = 0.3235394641 for 2 variables and 26 observations
16
0.2
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.20074 0.027535 7.290 0.0000 0.6889
DifLRDPC
-1.3967
0.13730 -10.172 0.0000 0.8117
R^2 = 0.811734 F(1,24) = 103.48 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.118021 DW = 1.71
RSS = 0.3342961152 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.34422 0.036289 9.485 0.0000 0.7894
DifLRDPC
-1.8344
0.18095 -10.137 0.0000 0.8107
R^2 = 0.810679 F(1,24) = 102.77 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.155541 DW = 1.35
RSS = 0.5806303062 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.064003 0.020517 3.120 0.0047 0.2885
DifLRDPC
-0.77564
0.10231 -7.582 0.0000 0.7055
R^2 = 0.705452 F(1,24) = 57.481 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0879376 DW = 2.08
RSS = 0.1855924374 for 2 variables and 26 observations
6. Conclusions
This short note estimated the sensitivity of poverty to changes in mean per capita
family income using Brazilian State level data. We calculated the growth elasticities of
poverty in two alternative ways: first, we applied directly the elasticity formula across
different states. The GDP based average growth elasticity of poverty of our basic poverty
measure, P1 using a low poverty line corresponds to –0.56 where14 of the 21 states
analyzed present a negative growth elasticity of poverty. The corresponding statistics for
P0 and P2 amounted to –0.58 and –0.27, respectively. When we used alternative poverty
lines for P1 we found 0.12 and –0.51 for the indigence line and the high poverty line,
respectively. . In general, per capita family income based Growth elasticities were greater
17
in absolute values than the ones observed for GDP-based elasticities. For example, in the
case of P1 with the intermediary line, the former reaches -0.82 against –0.56 for GDPbased elasticities.
In the second approach, we used state level regressions to calculate the
elasticities. Using a log-log specification pooling data from 1985 and 96, the gross GDP
elasticity of P1 corresponded to –0.96. This simple pooled regression explains around
89% of the variation observed in the endogenous variable.
One advantage of this second approach is to provide partial growth elasticities of
poverty net of the effects produced by investment in human capital captured by illeracy
rates and by changes in the sectoral structure of production. The introduction of these
new variables such as illiteracy rates and sectoral shares in total output presents the
expected sign but it does not turn out to be statistically different from zero at
conventional confidence levels. The GDP elasticity of P1 dropped from -0.96 to --0.86
with the introduction of the new variables.
The note also presented a series of robustness tests of the elasticities found
according to the two approaches mentioned above using different poverty measures,
different poverty lines and different functional forms.
18
Appendix A: Applying the Elasticity Formula Using Per Capita Family Income
(PNAD)
I – Total
Low Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.58
-0.35
0.13
-0.28
-0.93
8.02
0.18
-0.16
-0.77
-0.24
0.07
-0.18
-0.10
-0.14
-0.54
-0.90
-0.19
-0.76
-0.86
-0.21
-0.02
-0.56
-0.02
2.41
-0.49
-0.67
8.63
1.18
-0.20
-1.03
0.29
0.66
-0.46
0.36
-0.41
-0.73
-0.85
-0.44
-0.65
-0.84
-0.23
2.01
-0.27
0.38
5.82
-0.51
-0.04
-0.68
3.59
-0.20
-0.96
1.37
2.03
-0.59
0.93
-0.55
-0.76
-0.49
-0.55
-0.27
-0.68
-0.17
5.88
19
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
128274791
2229072
10678992
5913499
1581050
2298249
4443814
4668990
14633578
1590252
1489796
3015284
6763347
2426867
8143548
12752625
2119491
8489036
4093516
1299982
29643803
216.91
105.76
111.37
96.56
347.54
225.61
190.20
68.82
186.50
211.18
195.29
92.54
119.48
66.22
196.00
283.14
99.18
252.76
206.41
109.81
352.14
57.50
83.65
80.25
85.33
43.71
57.34
62.06
89.46
63.51
55.68
58.11
84.31
78.02
87.51
59.06
46.08
82.39
47.42
54.82
79.33
29.07
30.35
48.76
48.02
55.83
19.72
28.44
30.71
58.42
32.44
24.52
27.15
55.06
45.13
63.87
28.99
19.83
52.68
20.67
23.70
47.43
10.83
19.61
32.11
32.68
40.45
11.34
17.15
18.69
42.22
20.25
13.68
15.79
40.22
30.51
50.83
17.66
11.02
37.66
11.74
13.29
32.11
5.58
100.00
1.74
8.33
4.61
1.23
1.79
3.46
3.64
11.41
1.24
1.16
2.35
5.27
1.89
6.35
9.94
1.65
6.62
3.19
1.01
23.11
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.53
11.62
6.84
0.94
1.79
3.74
5.66
12.60
1.20
1.17
3.45
7.15
2.88
6.52
7.97
2.37
5.46
3.04
1.40
11.68
100.00
2.79
13.17
8.48
0.80
1.68
3.51
7.01
12.19
1.00
1.04
4.26
7.84
3.98
6.06
6.50
2.87
4.51
2.49
1.58
8.24
100.00
2.85
13.88
9.51
0.71
1.57
3.30
7.84
11.78
0.87
0.94
4.82
8.20
4.90
5.72
5.59
3.17
3.96
2.16
1.66
6.58
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
147913429
2733885
12866053
6812575
1776490
2839327
5414436
5316411
16720928
1950247
2394651
3379313
7535000
2765373
8787511
13434673
2629517
9703042
4919973
1637334
34296690
243.17
127.49
114.15
115.81
393.41
224.57
195.64
99.34
214.47
238.39
208.21
124.89
127.97
90.66
265.82
331.43
141.55
299.68
281.72
143.38
366.28
53.45
77.69
80.50
80.62
38.33
55.21
62.37
83.20
56.20
53.95
58.38
78.88
77.47
83.14
47.61
38.97
75.59
40.74
37.57
74.13
29.05
28.29
48.52
50.90
50.35
17.97
27.30
31.75
53.13
27.41
25.43
28.33
46.15
46.28
54.31
21.44
16.94
42.78
18.19
16.47
44.07
11.70
18.97
34.64
37.42
36.33
11.29
17.21
20.61
38.44
17.34
16.10
17.91
31.89
32.52
40.42
12.87
10.11
28.77
11.15
9.99
30.47
6.90
100.00
1.85
8.70
4.61
1.20
1.92
3.66
3.59
11.30
1.32
1.62
2.28
5.09
1.87
5.94
9.08
1.78
6.56
3.33
1.11
23.19
20
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.69
13.10
6.95
0.86
1.98
4.27
5.59
11.89
1.33
1.77
3.37
7.38
2.91
5.29
6.62
2.51
5.00
2.34
1.54
12.60
100.00
3.17
15.65
8.20
0.76
1.85
4.11
6.75
10.95
1.19
1.62
3.73
8.33
3.59
4.50
5.44
2.69
4.22
1.94
1.72
9.59
100.00
3.37
17.16
8.82
0.71
1.74
3.98
7.28
10.34
1.12
1.53
3.84
8.73
3.98
4.03
4.84
2.70
3.86
1.75
1.78
8.43
Indigence Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Total
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.74
0.11
0.98
-0.71
-0.77
8.16
-0.06
-0.26
-1.28
0.84
0.04
-0.58
0.15
-0.47
-0.92
-0.99
-0.57
-0.61
-0.81
-0.28
3.86
0.12
0.99
10.04
-0.56
1.17
-20.27
7.32
-0.20
-0.81
3.32
4.73
-0.75
1.57
-0.71
-0.78
0.33
-0.66
0.53
-0.34
-0.09
14.16
1.38
2.02
21.29
-0.21
4.52
-58.97
19.29
-0.09
0.04
8.88
12.41
-0.77
3.32
-0.80
-0.47
2.59
-0.74
2.20
0.44
0.28
32.85
21
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
128274791
2229072
10678992
5913499
1581050
2298249
4443814
4668990
14633578
1590252
1489796
3015284
6763347
2426867
8143548
12752625
2119491
8489036
4093516
1299982
29643803
216.91
105.76
111.37
96.56
347.54
225.61
190.20
68.82
186.50
211.18
195.29
92.54
119.48
66.22
196.00
283.14
99.18
252.76
206.41
109.81
352.14
32.47
55.50
55.83
65.75
19.73
29.83
31.99
69.21
34.35
23.30
28.54
65.17
50.69
74.07
30.22
18.47
61.72
19.17
21.78
55.27
8.55
13.72
22.71
24.33
32.64
6.57
10.49
11.86
33.82
13.40
7.38
9.18
32.82
22.59
44.99
11.21
5.96
29.90
6.68
7.27
23.69
2.72
7.65
11.84
13.43
19.67
3.07
5.17
5.95
20.28
7.02
3.30
4.08
20.13
12.92
31.88
5.71
2.79
17.84
3.29
3.52
12.89
1.30
100.00
1.74
8.33
4.61
1.23
1.79
3.46
3.64
11.41
1.24
1.16
2.35
5.27
1.89
6.35
9.94
1.65
6.62
3.19
1.01
23.11
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.97
14.32
9.34
0.75
1.65
3.41
7.76
12.07
0.89
1.02
4.72
8.23
4.32
5.91
5.66
3.14
3.91
2.14
1.73
6.09
100.00
2.88
14.77
10.97
0.59
1.37
2.99
8.97
11.15
0.67
0.78
5.63
8.68
6.21
5.19
4.32
3.60
3.22
1.69
1.75
4.58
100.00
2.69
14.62
11.86
0.49
1.21
2.70
9.65
10.48
0.53
0.62
6.19
8.91
7.89
4.74
3.63
3.85
2.84
1.47
1.71
3.91
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
147913429
2733885
12866053
6812575
1776490
2839327
5414436
5316411
16720928
1950247
2394651
3379313
7535000
2765373
8787511
13434673
2629517
9703042
4919973
1637334
34296690
243.17
127.49
114.15
115.81
393.41
224.57
195.64
99.34
214.47
238.39
208.21
124.89
127.97
90.66
265.82
331.43
141.55
299.68
281.72
143.38
366.28
29.55
56.73
57.19
56.43
17.73
28.71
31.94
61.26
27.74
25.83
28.62
51.93
51.22
61.12
20.34
15.35
46.78
16.99
15.36
50.58
9.88
13.92
27.33
30.41
28.99
7.59
11.47
14.34
30.85
11.77
10.53
12.05
24.19
25.10
33.27
8.09
6.30
21.53
7.34
6.37
23.07
4.26
8.92
16.76
20.55
18.85
4.90
6.57
9.23
19.46
7.06
7.07
7.42
14.69
15.97
22.51
4.75
4.02
12.19
4.63
4.08
13.99
3.00
100.00
1.85
8.70
4.61
1.20
1.92
3.66
3.59
11.30
1.32
1.62
2.28
5.09
1.87
5.94
9.08
1.78
6.56
3.33
1.11
23.19
22
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.55
16.84
8.80
0.72
1.87
3.96
7.45
10.61
1.15
1.57
4.02
8.83
3.87
4.09
4.72
2.81
3.77
1.73
1.90
7.75
100.00
3.63
19.00
9.59
0.65
1.58
3.77
7.96
9.56
1.00
1.40
3.97
9.19
4.47
3.45
4.11
2.75
3.46
1.52
1.83
7.10
100.00
3.47
20.03
9.73
0.66
1.41
3.79
7.84
8.95
1.04
1.35
3.76
9.12
4.72
3.16
4.09
2.43
3.40
1.52
1.74
7.80
High Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
With Average Per Capita Earnings
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.38
-0.24
0.11
-0.15
-1.00
-0.36
0.12
-0.12
-0.44
-0.12
0.02
-0.08
-0.12
-0.06
-0.33
-0.53
-0.11
-0.53
-0.49
-0.19
-0.54
-0.51
-0.17
1.25
-0.36
-0.87
6.15
0.58
-0.17
-0.79
0.05
0.37
-0.30
0.12
-0.27
-0.56
-0.74
-0.30
-0.63
-0.74
-0.21
0.54
-0.46
0.02
2.89
-0.44
-0.62
5.62
1.49
-0.19
-0.91
0.42
0.85
-0.44
0.41
-0.40
-0.66
-0.73
-0.42
-0.56
-0.77
-0.21
2.01
23
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
High Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
128274791
2229072
10678992
5913499
1581050
2298249
4443814
4668990
14633578
1590252
1489796
3015284
6763347
2426867
8143548
12752625
2119491
8489036
4093516
1299982
29643803
216.91
105.76
111.37
96.56
347.54
225.61
190.20
68.82
186.50
211.18
195.29
92.54
119.48
66.22
196.00
283.14
99.18
252.76
206.41
109.81
352.14
71.39
90.95
88.72
91.14
58.20
70.81
76.26
95.47
77.16
71.12
72.57
90.13
87.35
92.17
74.36
62.83
90.14
65.00
72.08
88.63
48.33
42.65
62.58
61.20
67.47
31.01
41.43
44.56
70.62
46.19
38.48
40.86
66.56
58.70
73.23
42.68
32.35
64.75
33.48
38.22
60.63
20.82
29.92
46.52
46.09
53.39
19.90
28.04
30.28
55.83
31.92
24.58
26.95
52.80
43.62
61.64
28.76
20.22
50.52
21.10
24.12
45.49
11.76
100.00
1.74
8.33
4.61
1.23
1.79
3.46
3.64
11.41
1.24
1.16
2.35
5.27
1.89
6.35
9.94
1.65
6.62
3.19
1.01
23.11
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.21
10.35
5.89
1.00
1.78
3.70
4.87
12.33
1.24
1.18
2.97
6.45
2.44
6.61
8.75
2.09
6.03
3.22
1.26
15.64
100.00
2.55
11.95
7.29
0.90
1.74
3.62
6.03
12.35
1.12
1.11
3.67
7.26
3.25
6.35
7.54
2.51
5.20
2.86
1.44
11.28
100.00
2.70
12.82
8.23
0.82
1.68
3.51
6.79
12.17
1.02
1.05
4.15
7.69
3.90
6.10
6.72
2.79
4.67
2.57
1.54
9.09
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
High Poverty Line
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
147913429
2733885
12866053
6812575
1776490
2839327
5414436
5316411
16720928
1950247
2394651
3379313
7535000
2765373
8787511
13434673
2629517
9703042
4919973
1637334
34296690
243.17
127.49
114.15
115.81
393.41
224.57
195.64
99.34
214.47
238.39
208.21
124.89
127.97
90.66
265.82
331.43
141.55
299.68
281.72
143.38
366.28
68.09
86.48
88.97
88.47
50.51
70.93
76.53
90.59
72.04
70.03
72.66
87.77
86.58
90.04
65.62
57.17
85.73
58.60
59.15
83.57
47.27
40.02
60.38
63.11
62.63
27.43
40.25
45.30
65.23
40.69
38.74
41.87
59.56
59.20
65.92
34.22
28.24
56.44
29.60
27.90
56.65
21.27
28.24
46.72
49.40
48.65
18.26
27.31
31.58
51.10
27.56
25.92
28.46
44.75
44.90
52.48
21.99
17.70
41.54
18.91
17.34
42.63
12.71
100.00
1.85
8.70
4.61
1.20
1.92
3.66
3.59
11.30
1.32
1.62
2.28
5.09
1.87
5.94
9.08
1.78
6.56
3.33
1.11
23.19
24
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.35
11.36
5.98
0.89
2.00
4.11
4.78
11.96
1.36
1.73
2.94
6.48
2.47
5.73
7.63
2.24
5.65
2.89
1.36
16.10
100.00
2.79
13.72
7.21
0.82
1.93
4.14
5.86
11.49
1.28
1.69
3.40
7.54
3.08
5.08
6.41
2.51
4.85
2.32
1.57
12.32
100.00
3.06
15.22
7.94
0.78
1.86
4.09
6.51
11.04
1.21
1.63
3.62
8.10
3.47
4.63
5.69
2.62
4.39
2.04
1.67
10.44
I – By Sector of Activity
Agriculture - Low Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.48
-0.02
0.00
-0.13
-0.13
-2.60
0.36
-0.14
1.20
-0.06
-0.06
-0.14
-0.13
0.00
-0.44
-0.58
-0.14
-0.84
-0.62
-0.11
-5.61
-0.14
-0.83
-0.46
-0.19
-0.09
-3.73
0.78
-0.14
1.39
0.32
-0.45
-0.42
0.42
-0.13
0.82
-0.60
-0.36
-0.91
-0.11
-0.02
1.38
0.77
-1.56
-1.00
-0.12
-0.09
-5.63
1.41
-0.12
0.17
0.89
-1.40
-0.51
1.14
-0.20
1.37
-0.53
-0.46
-0.69
0.50
0.08
2.82
25
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
33203076
997616
4188933
2478469
49631
879036
1474922
2426567
4526663
500709
586707
1117352
2014198
1227947
3088653
571587
633507
2317812
1238709
436190
2447868
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
102.23
78.88
67.86
41.78
225.47
127.71
140.08
44.69
117.50
164.85
139.10
45.18
59.79
27.13
142.49
148.28
45.89
155.96
120.55
64.33
202.74
82.23
93.13
92.05
97.03
72.62
71.93
74.19
96.18
80.00
71.12
74.25
97.09
92.23
93.99
72.81
78.46
96.30
68.17
71.28
91.78
54.63
51.28
57.99
60.20
71.14
42.49
38.31
42.19
68.39
46.76
34.83
38.90
72.27
60.55
77.23
41.32
42.28
70.85
33.38
34.52
60.00
24.51
36.36
39.77
43.05
55.17
28.84
23.84
27.99
52.00
31.45
20.65
24.04
56.83
44.16
65.91
27.42
26.82
55.03
20.29
20.77
43.03
13.94
100.00
3.00
12.62
7.46
0.15
2.65
4.44
7.31
13.63
1.51
1.77
3.37
6.07
3.70
9.30
1.72
1.91
6.98
3.73
1.31
7.37
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.40
14.12
8.81
0.13
2.32
4.01
8.55
13.26
1.30
1.60
3.97
6.80
4.23
8.24
1.64
2.23
5.79
3.23
1.47
4.90
100.00
3.40
14.81
10.35
0.12
1.98
3.65
9.75
12.43
1.02
1.34
4.74
7.16
5.57
7.50
1.42
2.64
4.54
2.51
1.54
3.52
100.00
3.29
14.94
11.33
0.12
1.74
3.42
10.45
11.79
0.86
1.17
5.26
7.37
6.70
7.02
1.27
2.89
3.89
2.13
1.55
2.83
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29749446
808319
4265824
2199675
69008
700520
1411648
2345437
4065820
485040
693382
1078264
1771538
1012671
2009075
444165
617682
1917358
1008242
403069
2442709
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
105.65
65.95
54.30
47.51
167.35
122.44
155.60
63.47
115.27
191.94
125.66
55.70
62.06
48.42
134.86
164.21
73.15
184.54
148.97
87.15
201.20
80.90
93.42
92.04
95.33
75.08
79.64
77.19
90.57
78.19
70.48
74.66
93.94
91.76
94.27
74.53
73.61
88.17
57.63
60.85
88.34
56.96
51.05
65.86
65.76
69.28
43.42
44.20
45.85
64.49
45.52
36.65
40.57
65.21
61.52
69.45
39.51
39.54
55.84
27.84
33.62
59.61
24.25
37.29
49.92
51.65
54.30
29.53
29.37
32.36
49.38
31.35
23.67
27.28
50.05
46.08
55.55
25.41
25.28
39.86
17.72
23.20
44.27
13.64
100.00
2.72
14.34
7.39
0.23
2.35
4.75
7.88
13.67
1.63
2.33
3.62
5.95
3.40
6.75
1.49
2.08
6.45
3.39
1.35
8.21
26
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.14
16.31
8.71
0.22
2.32
4.53
8.83
13.21
1.42
2.15
4.21
6.75
3.97
6.22
1.36
2.26
4.59
2.55
1.48
5.78
100.00
3.51
18.47
10.04
0.20
2.04
4.26
9.96
12.19
1.17
1.85
4.63
7.18
4.63
5.23
1.16
2.27
3.51
2.23
1.58
3.90
100.00
3.64
19.86
10.77
0.18
1.85
4.12
10.44
11.49
1.04
1.71
4.86
7.36
5.07
4.60
1.01
2.22
3.06
2.11
1.61
3.00
27
Agriculture - Indigence Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.96
-1.02
-0.18
-0.48
-0.30
-3.57
0.60
-0.13
2.71
0.21
-0.30
-0.56
-0.06
-0.14
2.67
-0.71
-0.47
-1.11
0.24
-0.13
5.42
1.71
-2.56
-1.57
-0.11
-0.09
-9.77
2.10
-0.10
-1.53
1.79
-3.13
-0.64
1.86
-0.26
2.24
-0.31
-0.56
-0.25
1.52
0.14
5.93
4.90
-4.08
-3.13
0.42
-0.14
-15.26
4.63
-0.05
-6.88
4.97
-7.71
-0.55
3.93
-0.31
1.11
0.18
-0.64
1.01
3.13
0.55
-18.53
28
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
33203076
997616
4188933
2478469
49631
879036
1474922
2426567
4526663
500709
586707
1117352
2014198
1227947
3088653
571587
633507
2317812
1238709
436190
2447868
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
102.23
78.88
67.86
41.78
225.47
127.71
140.08
44.69
117.50
164.85
139.10
45.18
59.79
27.13
142.49
148.28
45.89
155.96
120.55
64.33
202.74
59.73
68.83
72.95
86.30
45.04
43.29
48.42
82.33
53.42
38.24
44.66
88.41
71.47
89.42
47.93
48.03
86.20
34.46
35.19
74.20
23.76
28.56
29.74
34.20
48.12
21.56
15.27
20.13
44.15
22.99
12.22
15.19
50.20
35.91
61.88
19.73
17.78
47.99
12.85
12.84
34.45
7.79
17.09
16.08
19.56
30.86
12.72
7.17
10.86
27.88
12.79
5.35
7.06
33.05
22.03
47.29
10.60
9.28
30.94
6.47
6.54
19.76
3.64
100.00
3.00
12.62
7.46
0.15
2.65
4.44
7.31
13.63
1.51
1.77
3.37
6.07
3.70
9.30
1.72
1.91
6.98
3.73
1.31
7.37
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.46
15.41
10.78
0.11
1.92
3.60
10.07
12.19
0.97
1.32
4.98
7.26
5.54
7.46
1.38
2.75
4.03
2.20
1.63
2.93
100.00
3.13
15.11
12.58
0.11
1.42
3.13
11.30
10.98
0.65
0.94
5.91
7.63
8.01
6.43
1.07
3.21
3.14
1.68
1.58
2.01
100.00
2.83
14.44
13.48
0.11
1.11
2.82
11.92
10.20
0.47
0.73
6.51
7.82
10.23
5.77
0.93
3.45
2.64
1.43
1.52
1.57
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29749446
808319
4265824
2199675
69008
700520
1411648
2345437
4065820
485040
693382
1078264
1771538
1012671
2009075
444165
617682
1917358
1008242
403069
2442709
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
105.65
65.95
54.30
47.51
167.35
122.44
155.60
63.47
115.27
191.94
125.66
55.70
62.06
48.42
134.86
164.21
73.15
184.54
148.97
87.15
201.20
57.82
80.33
75.58
80.65
48.57
49.67
51.63
77.81
50.67
39.57
45.95
76.91
71.31
79.50
41.07
44.39
62.04
27.44
37.17
70.88
22.78
30.19
42.23
44.93
47.39
22.07
21.42
24.82
42.20
23.66
15.82
19.78
42.75
38.44
49.16
17.37
17.19
31.93
12.27
17.43
36.12
7.44
19.89
26.83
31.79
32.66
13.16
11.69
16.43
27.33
14.46
9.71
12.31
28.80
25.32
35.73
9.97
9.46
19.26
7.67
11.37
23.59
4.16
100.00
2.72
14.34
7.39
0.23
2.35
4.75
7.88
13.67
1.63
2.33
3.62
5.95
3.40
6.75
1.49
2.08
6.45
3.39
1.35
8.21
29
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.77
18.75
10.31
0.19
2.02
4.24
10.61
11.98
1.12
1.85
4.82
7.34
4.68
4.80
1.15
2.23
3.06
2.18
1.66
3.24
100.00
3.80
21.34
11.61
0.17
1.67
3.90
11.02
10.71
0.85
1.53
5.13
7.58
5.54
3.89
0.85
2.20
2.62
1.96
1.62
2.02
100.00
3.67
22.92
12.14
0.15
1.38
3.92
10.84
9.93
0.80
1.44
5.25
7.58
6.12
3.39
0.71
2.01
2.48
1.94
1.61
1.72
Agriculture - High Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.02
0.08
-0.04
-0.04
-0.40
-1.37
0.31
-0.06
-0.01
0.04
-0.01
-0.02
-0.13
0.03
-0.87
-0.31
-0.06
-0.35
-0.31
-0.07
-0.31
-0.17
-0.40
-0.26
-0.14
-0.21
-2.44
0.57
-0.12
1.06
0.17
-0.26
-0.27
0.14
-0.07
-0.04
-0.52
-0.24
-0.70
-0.29
-0.04
-1.21
0.11
-0.86
-0.54
-0.15
-0.14
-3.64
0.86
-0.12
0.93
0.40
-0.61
-0.39
0.52
-0.13
0.58
-0.56
-0.35
-0.77
-0.06
0.00
0.07
30
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
High
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
33203076
997616
4188933
2478469
49631
879036
1474922
2426567
4526663
500709
586707
1117352
2014198
1227947
3088653
571587
633507
2317812
1238709
436190
2447868
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
102.23
78.88
67.86
41.78
225.47
127.71
140.08
44.69
117.50
164.85
139.10
45.18
59.79
27.13
142.49
148.28
45.89
155.96
120.55
64.33
202.74
90.35
97.47
96.17
98.95
77.84
84.52
84.33
98.53
89.26
81.23
85.18
98.62
96.89
95.28
83.26
88.71
98.51
82.28
86.23
96.88
75.91
63.90
71.45
72.33
80.72
54.36
53.18
55.30
78.77
60.52
49.53
53.30
81.31
72.77
83.42
54.52
56.94
80.35
48.60
50.70
72.22
39.46
49.33
55.04
57.22
67.80
40.84
37.27
40.68
65.15
45.04
33.88
37.55
68.97
57.92
74.66
39.96
40.78
67.55
32.98
34.19
57.11
24.94
100.00
3.00
12.62
7.46
0.15
2.65
4.44
7.31
13.63
1.51
1.77
3.37
6.07
3.70
9.30
1.72
1.91
6.98
3.73
1.31
7.37
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
105.65
65.95
54.30
47.51
167.35
122.44
155.60
63.47
115.27
191.94
125.66
55.70
62.06
48.42
134.86
164.21
73.15
184.54
148.97
87.15
201.20
90.28
96.25
96.88
98.35
85.80
89.31
87.23
96.21
89.28
81.76
85.23
98.16
96.41
97.24
87.14
85.78
95.06
77.04
79.87
94.59
76.09
63.55
76.16
76.11
79.19
57.29
58.53
58.80
74.91
59.31
50.91
54.66
76.23
73.15
78.83
54.65
53.73
69.07
42.33
47.19
71.08
39.83
49.52
62.76
63.42
66.45
42.31
42.87
44.57
61.73
44.24
36.08
39.77
62.66
59.07
66.88
38.71
38.34
53.71
28.34
33.67
57.10
24.93
100.00
2.72
14.34
7.39
0.23
2.35
4.75
7.88
13.67
1.63
2.33
3.62
5.95
3.40
6.75
1.49
2.08
6.45
3.39
1.35
8.21
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
3.24
13.43
8.18
0.13
2.48
4.15
7.97
13.47
1.36
1.67
3.67
6.51
3.90
8.57
1.69
2.08
6.36
3.56
1.41
6.19
100.00
3.36
14.28
9.43
0.13
2.20
3.84
9.01
12.91
1.17
1.47
4.28
6.91
4.83
7.94
1.53
2.40
5.31
2.96
1.48
4.55
100.00
3.35
14.63
10.26
0.12
2.00
3.66
9.65
12.45
1.04
1.34
4.70
7.12
5.60
7.53
1.42
2.61
4.67
2.59
1.52
3.73
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
High Poverty Line
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29749446
808319
4265824
2199675
69008
700520
1411648
2345437
4065820
485040
693382
1078264
1771538
1012671
2009075
444165
617682
1917358
1008242
403069
2442709
31
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
100.00
2.90
15.39
8.06
0.22
2.33
4.59
8.40
13.52
1.48
2.20
3.94
6.36
3.67
6.52
1.42
2.19
5.50
3.00
1.42
6.92
100.00
3.26
17.17
9.21
0.21
2.17
4.39
9.29
12.76
1.31
2.00
4.35
6.86
4.22
5.81
1.26
2.26
4.29
2.52
1.52
5.15
100.00
3.44
18.36
9.92
0.20
2.04
4.27
9.83
12.21
1.19
1.87
4.59
7.10
4.60
5.28
1.16
2.25
3.69
2.30
1.56
4.13
Manufacturing – Low Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-1.84
-0.21
-0.85
-0.30
-0.51
0.87
-1.63
2.51
-1.74
-0.39
-0.02
-0.09
-0.57
-0.17
-0.52
-1.15
-1.29
-0.74
-1.65
-0.65
-1.76
-3.83
-0.91
-0.59
-0.66
1.95
-1.67
-1.16
-2.46
-0.51
0.12
-0.35
-1.73
0.44
-0.60
-1.33
-3.33
-0.09
-1.97
0.53
-1.18
-7.50
-1.69
-0.74
-0.68
2.61
-1.11
-4.73
-2.70
-0.42
-0.06
-0.53
-2.50
0.67
-0.57
-1.25
-3.95
0.56
-2.03
0.87
6.44
2.99
-3.92
32
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
28264205
363400
1937156
1139085
229152
346445
762374
703222
2976301
276515
314812
440932
1155821
351858
1365601
2989708
406549
1814378
1041030
233084
9416782
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
219.34
124.40
111.49
82.62
162.87
237.39
150.71
74.35
181.56
168.03
176.63
79.38
121.12
70.64
155.33
227.18
94.00
227.46
223.05
110.56
330.79
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
53.18
78.03
79.49
88.90
67.02
55.76
66.99
90.08
63.22
64.85
58.60
86.28
78.26
91.02
62.45
53.90
87.69
42.90
49.55
80.25
25.08
40.60
46.24
54.90
30.56
24.92
29.49
54.13
29.39
26.81
23.35
56.05
40.59
61.35
26.15
22.52
56.22
16.22
19.21
48.40
14.89
24.69
30.50
37.68
17.39
14.33
15.96
36.81
17.00
13.91
12.41
39.82
25.37
45.59
13.71
11.93
39.39
8.20
9.82
31.90
100.00
1.29
6.85
4.03
0.81
1.23
2.70
2.49
10.53
0.98
1.11
1.56
4.09
1.24
4.83
10.58
1.44
6.42
3.68
0.82
100.00
1.89
10.25
6.74
1.02
1.29
3.40
4.21
12.52
1.19
1.23
2.53
6.02
2.13
5.67
10.72
2.37
5.18
3.43
1.24
100.00
2.08
12.64
8.82
0.99
1.22
3.17
5.37
12.34
1.05
1.04
3.49
6.62
3.05
5.04
9.50
3.22
4.15
2.82
1.59
100.00
2.13
14.03
10.20
0.95
1.18
2.89
6.15
12.02
0.91
0.93
4.17
6.96
3.81
4.45
8.48
3.80
3.54
2.43
1.77
27.08
8.89
4.12
33.32
16.97
11.81
9.21
33
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29841785
462812
1901835
1109350
246640
586400
844383
804413
3201362
275410
411931
420797
1146170
461437
1799115
2516591
502041
2153696
1472312
250041
9275049
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
229.80
117.90
106.11
95.92
243.44
215.70
159.36
73.00
197.68
224.91
205.83
122.80
106.85
61.36
234.88
270.28
97.43
246.19
272.29
102.00
326.12
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
48.51
78.86
82.76
84.64
49.96
51.35
60.72
85.98
53.47
56.24
58.41
82.18
83.53
93.01
45.77
42.11
83.56
40.30
31.52
84.28
22.98
48.72
48.27
49.70
20.64
20.49
26.67
55.27
22.97
22.15
23.82
45.31
48.86
57.77
18.07
16.84
49.40
16.10
10.86
46.41
14.06
34.36
32.99
33.17
11.54
10.92
14.95
39.96
12.93
11.91
12.29
28.31
32.84
41.59
9.71
9.10
33.72
8.58
5.43
29.75
100.00
1.55
6.37
3.72
0.83
1.97
2.83
2.70
10.73
0.92
1.38
1.41
3.84
1.55
6.03
8.43
1.68
7.22
4.93
0.84
100.00
2.52
10.87
6.49
0.85
2.08
3.54
4.78
11.82
1.07
1.66
2.39
6.61
2.96
5.69
7.32
2.90
6.00
3.21
1.46
100.00
3.29
13.39
8.04
0.74
1.75
3.28
6.48
10.72
0.89
1.43
2.78
8.17
3.89
4.74
6.18
3.62
5.06
2.33
1.69
100.00
3.79
14.96
8.77
0.68
1.53
3.01
7.66
9.87
0.78
1.21
2.84
8.97
4.58
4.16
5.46
4.04
4.41
1.90
1.77
24.62
8.51
4.34
31.08
15.77
11.52
9.61
34
Manufacturing – Indigence Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-2.18
-6.12
-0.45
-1.04
-0.71
3.00
-2.75
-3.22
-2.98
0.05
-0.60
-0.45
-2.25
0.93
-0.74
-1.64
-3.88
0.01
-2.06
1.55
-0.01
-13.42
-3.10
-1.00
-0.61
3.65
0.24
-9.66
-3.00
-0.23
-0.63
-0.77
-3.77
1.13
-0.37
-0.88
-4.47
2.77
-1.89
1.11
2.93
-22.02
-6.31
-0.87
-0.45
4.24
6.50
-19.54
-2.30
0.04
-0.69
-0.92
-4.58
0.61
0.15
0.43
-4.64
6.38
-1.27
-0.36
4.93
-27.26
-89.16
35
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Population
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
28264205
363400
1937156
1139085
229152
346445
762374
703222
2976301
276515
314812
440932
1155821
351858
1365601
2989708
406549
1814378
1041030
233084
9416782
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
219.34
124.40
111.49
82.62
162.87
237.39
150.71
74.35
181.56
168.03
176.63
79.38
121.12
70.64
155.33
227.18
94.00
227.46
223.05
110.56
330.79
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
25.30
42.53
53.17
65.54
31.39
26.22
28.18
62.14
29.29
22.06
22.90
68.23
43.85
75.26
24.22
20.36
67.32
13.02
15.15
59.03
9.11
15.59
21.44
28.23
9.62
7.81
7.83
27.18
9.90
6.30
6.12
31.36
16.52
38.27
6.29
5.63
30.46
3.60
4.23
22.22
4.49
7.38
11.24
15.33
4.04
3.67
3.04
14.90
4.53
2.48
2.36
17.91
8.55
22.74
2.38
2.23
16.78
1.44
1.76
10.60
100.00
1.29
6.85
4.03
0.81
1.23
2.70
2.49
10.53
0.98
1.11
1.56
4.09
1.24
4.83
10.58
1.44
6.42
3.68
0.82
100.00
2.16
14.40
10.44
1.01
1.27
3.00
6.11
12.19
0.85
1.01
4.21
7.09
3.70
4.63
8.51
3.83
3.30
2.21
1.92
100.00
2.20
16.13
12.49
0.86
1.05
2.32
7.42
11.45
0.68
0.75
5.37
7.42
5.23
3.34
6.54
4.81
2.54
1.71
2.01
100.00
2.11
17.17
13.77
0.73
1.00
1.83
8.26
10.63
0.54
0.59
6.23
7.79
6.31
2.56
5.27
5.38
2.07
1.44
1.95
6.20
1.56
0.59
33.32
8.17
5.69
4.37
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29841785
462812
1901835
1109350
246640
586400
844383
804413
3201362
275410
411931
420797
1146170
461437
1799115
2516591
502041
2153696
1472312
250041
9275049
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
229.80
117.90
106.11
95.92
243.44
215.70
159.36
73.00
197.68
224.91
205.83
122.80
106.85
61.36
234.88
270.28
97.43
246.19
272.29
102.00
326.12
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
22.67
56.12
54.33
54.59
20.39
19.03
23.74
65.75
21.53
22.42
20.62
51.27
55.48
66.08
15.06
14.04
57.80
13.03
8.27
51.97
9.11
26.52
24.65
23.69
6.73
5.21
7.94
31.93
7.27
5.82
5.48
18.15
23.86
32.59
5.11
4.69
25.50
4.43
2.46
20.31
5.11
15.86
14.66
13.18
3.15
2.25
4.18
20.17
3.61
2.51
2.09
8.93
13.16
20.91
2.56
2.41
13.94
2.20
1.27
10.90
100.00
1.55
6.37
3.72
0.83
1.97
2.83
2.70
10.73
0.92
1.38
1.41
3.84
1.55
6.03
8.43
1.68
7.22
4.93
0.84
100.00
3.84
15.28
8.95
0.74
1.65
2.96
7.82
10.19
0.91
1.26
3.19
9.40
4.51
4.01
5.22
4.29
4.15
1.80
1.92
100.00
4.52
17.25
9.67
0.61
1.12
2.47
9.45
8.56
0.59
0.83
2.81
10.07
5.53
3.38
4.34
4.71
3.51
1.33
1.87
100.00
4.81
18.27
9.58
0.51
0.87
2.31
10.63
7.56
0.45
0.56
2.46
9.89
6.32
3.02
3.98
4.59
3.11
1.22
1.79
5.77
2.16
1.33
31.08
7.91
7.36
8.07
36
Manufacturing – High Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.99
-0.14
-0.61
-0.14
-0.48
-0.70
-0.47
1.34
-0.84
-0.29
0.05
-0.04
-0.30
-0.20
-0.31
-0.76
0.38
-0.93
-0.82
-0.29
-1.52
-1.96
-0.78
-0.40
-0.57
0.68
-1.24
0.44
-1.72
-0.42
0.06
-0.21
-1.02
0.20
-0.49
-1.08
-1.80
-0.58
-1.48
0.08
-1.53
-3.89
-1.09
-0.55
-0.62
1.53
-1.39
-1.43
-2.18
-0.45
0.05
-0.35
-1.60
0.41
-0.55
-1.20
-2.89
-0.24
-1.76
0.41
2.77
3.71
2.20
37
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
High
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Population
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
28264205
363400
1937156
1139085
229152
346445
762374
703222
2976301
276515
314812
440932
1155821
351858
1365601
2989708
406549
1814378
1041030
233084
9416782
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
219.34
124.40
111.49
82.62
162.87
237.39
150.71
74.35
181.56
168.03
176.63
79.38
121.12
70.64
155.33
227.18
94.00
227.46
223.05
110.56
330.79
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
69.76
86.74
89.67
94.42
82.22
67.80
81.98
96.43
78.26
81.86
75.00
92.48
88.78
94.87
82.61
71.86
91.93
65.91
68.25
89.62
38.20
55.32
60.17
68.05
46.47
37.98
45.97
68.24
44.35
43.67
38.97
67.85
56.10
72.94
43.13
37.14
68.02
30.06
33.58
61.70
25.11
38.96
44.36
52.22
30.36
24.86
29.36
51.75
29.19
26.98
23.94
53.32
39.49
58.79
26.52
22.89
53.25
17.28
19.96
45.99
100.00
1.29
6.85
4.03
0.81
1.23
2.70
2.49
10.53
0.98
1.11
1.56
4.09
1.24
4.83
10.58
1.44
6.42
3.68
0.82
100.00
1.60
8.81
5.45
0.96
1.19
3.17
3.44
11.81
1.15
1.20
2.07
5.20
1.69
5.72
10.90
1.90
6.07
3.60
1.06
100.00
1.86
10.79
7.18
0.99
1.22
3.25
4.44
12.23
1.12
1.14
2.77
6.01
2.38
5.46
10.28
2.56
5.05
3.24
1.33
100.00
2.00
12.11
8.38
0.98
1.21
3.15
5.13
12.24
1.05
1.06
3.31
6.43
2.91
5.10
9.64
3.05
4.42
2.93
1.51
48.19
19.17
10.08
33.32
23.02
16.72
13.38
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
66.45
87.39
92.30
92.30
62.85
72.11
79.79
94.10
72.42
73.94
75.66
90.58
91.92
97.32
69.32
61.56
93.19
60.85
55.85
91.65
35.43
60.97
62.44
63.68
33.35
35.61
42.69
67.70
37.58
37.39
39.39
59.97
62.84
71.05
32.36
29.50
63.55
28.61
22.64
61.30
23.28
46.87
46.69
47.56
21.05
21.39
27.02
53.10
23.53
22.88
24.14
43.19
46.92
55.62
19.12
17.66
47.65
16.94
12.23
44.54
100.00
1.55
6.37
3.72
0.83
1.97
2.83
2.70
10.73
0.92
1.38
1.41
3.84
1.55
6.03
8.43
1.68
7.22
4.93
0.84
100.00
2.04
8.85
5.16
0.78
2.13
3.40
3.82
11.69
1.03
1.57
1.92
5.31
2.26
6.29
7.81
2.36
6.61
4.15
1.16
100.00
2.67
11.23
6.68
0.78
1.98
3.41
5.15
11.38
0.97
1.53
2.39
6.81
3.10
5.51
7.02
3.02
5.83
3.15
1.45
100.00
3.12
12.78
7.59
0.75
1.81
3.28
6.15
10.84
0.91
1.43
2.62
7.74
3.69
4.95
6.40
3.44
5.25
2.59
1.60
46.30
18.16
9.77
31.08
21.66
15.94
13.04
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
High Poverty Line
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
29841785
462812
1901835
1109350
246640
586400
844383
804413
3201362
275410
411931
420797
1146170
461437
1799115
2516591
502041
2153696
1472312
250041
9275049
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
229.80
117.90
106.11
95.92
243.44
215.70
159.36
73.00
197.68
224.91
205.83
122.80
106.85
61.36
234.88
270.28
97.43
246.19
272.29
102.00
326.12
38
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
Services – Low Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.86
-0.48
-0.02
-1.13
-1.21
0.74
-1.03
-0.18
-1.30
0.13
-10.63
-0.35
-0.20
-3.22
-0.87
-1.08
-0.20
-1.25
-1.23
-0.26
-0.83
-0.52
0.55
-1.85
-1.36
0.98
-0.66
-0.23
-1.75
0.39
-12.47
-0.54
0.58
-3.75
-1.10
-1.28
-0.43
-1.03
-1.34
0.53
-0.61
-0.43
1.15
-1.95
-1.37
0.86
-0.86
-0.25
-1.81
0.83
-16.84
-0.66
1.50
-4.06
-1.21
-1.28
-0.55
-0.57
-1.34
1.09
-1.16
-1.13
-0.72
39
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
45451489
552476
3013504
1533247
1111152
768332
1573468
1089330
4372903
627557
451727
845913
2398362
555601
2695803
6421789
674219
2952245
1207624
410842
12195395
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
305.56
150.39
174.68
185.31
403.55
344.57
274.10
119.16
276.06
274.72
298.50
165.80
174.52
147.83
287.51
326.63
145.15
352.62
285.12
165.95
421.56
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
42.65
70.27
64.87
66.69
35.29
39.49
45.52
73.52
47.52
38.62
34.40
65.18
65.61
70.84
40.65
40.33
69.02
34.77
43.36
63.85
19.19
37.89
33.63
35.97
14.93
18.24
19.41
39.62
21.19
14.47
13.51
35.02
34.27
41.12
16.06
16.72
38.22
13.48
16.70
32.75
11.09
23.64
20.95
22.99
8.23
10.52
10.67
25.25
12.00
7.30
6.92
22.61
21.66
27.86
8.44
9.11
24.96
7.04
8.50
20.25
100.00
1.22
6.63
3.37
2.44
1.69
3.46
2.40
9.62
1.38
0.99
1.86
5.28
1.22
5.93
14.13
1.48
6.50
2.66
0.90
100.00
2.00
10.09
5.27
2.02
1.57
3.69
4.13
10.72
1.25
0.80
2.84
8.12
2.03
5.65
13.36
2.40
5.30
2.70
1.35
100.00
2.40
11.62
6.33
1.90
1.61
3.50
4.95
10.63
1.04
0.70
3.40
9.43
2.62
4.97
12.31
2.96
4.56
2.31
1.54
100.00
2.59
12.52
6.99
1.81
1.60
3.33
5.46
10.40
0.91
0.62
3.79
10.31
3.07
4.51
11.60
3.34
4.12
2.04
1.65
23.36
8.03
3.86
26.83
14.70
11.23
9.33
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Low Line
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
57922940
874673
4054089
2103859
1068097
1037291
2210602
1449463
6030150
880666
925188
1131244
2813893
840046
3550283
6727574
927317
3898946
1645900
663221
15090438
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
338.01
202.29
193.64
196.67
466.30
320.25
261.34
177.96
302.09
295.59
291.11
191.16
183.12
154.61
371.68
379.80
202.78
395.25
389.92
185.85
460.90
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
38.76
58.54
64.73
62.08
28.66
37.43
47.70
66.84
41.71
39.01
43.46
61.72
64.97
60.37
30.24
33.25
63.61
29.52
23.77
61.83
17.49
31.12
35.63
31.89
11.77
16.98
20.00
35.10
17.69
14.90
17.69
32.12
35.25
34.05
10.87
13.24
31.62
11.80
8.50
34.83
10.37
20.11
23.58
20.24
6.48
9.88
11.09
22.10
9.95
7.76
9.81
20.33
23.26
22.68
5.44
7.22
19.50
6.56
4.30
22.90
100.00
1.51
7.00
3.63
1.84
1.79
3.82
2.50
10.41
1.52
1.60
1.95
4.86
1.45
6.13
11.61
1.60
6.73
2.84
1.15
100.00
2.28
11.69
5.82
1.36
1.73
4.70
4.32
11.20
1.53
1.79
3.11
8.14
2.26
4.78
9.96
2.63
5.13
1.74
1.83
100.00
2.69
14.26
6.62
1.24
1.74
4.37
5.02
10.53
1.30
1.62
3.59
9.79
2.82
3.81
8.80
2.90
4.54
1.38
2.28
100.00
2.93
15.91
7.09
1.15
1.71
4.08
5.33
9.98
1.14
1.51
3.83
10.89
3.17
3.22
8.08
3.01
4.25
1.18
2.53
20.84
7.19
3.60
26.05
14.01
10.71
9.03
40
41
Services – Indigence Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.92
-0.45
0.76
-2.04
-1.82
-0.16
1.35
-0.35
-2.34
1.64
-16.47
-0.49
0.37
-4.55
-1.37
-1.59
-0.77
-0.51
-1.42
1.55
-0.14
-0.25
2.21
-1.87
-1.53
0.24
-1.84
-0.28
-1.84
0.69
-26.55
-0.85
2.63
-4.29
-1.29
-1.20
-0.65
0.88
-1.38
2.08
1.01
0.03
3.70
-1.46
-0.38
1.01
-6.08
-0.20
-0.67
2.97
-43.65
-0.95
6.13
-4.22
-1.01
-0.29
-0.67
2.04
-1.02
2.67
-0.94
0.25
4.09
42
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
45451489
552476
3013504
1533247
1111152
768332
1573468
1089330
4372903
627557
451727
845913
2398362
555601
2695803
6421789
674219
2952245
1207624
410842
12195395
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
305.56
150.39
174.68
185.31
403.55
344.57
274.10
119.16
276.06
274.72
298.50
165.80
174.52
147.83
287.51
326.63
145.15
352.62
285.12
165.95
421.56
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
18.55
40.72
36.51
39.00
14.48
16.56
18.30
45.17
20.50
11.70
10.69
38.07
36.86
46.11
13.72
15.05
44.29
11.10
13.38
34.61
6.53
15.51
13.64
15.64
4.49
5.94
5.61
17.00
6.71
3.27
3.24
15.84
14.65
20.54
4.04
4.85
17.61
3.37
3.81
13.15
3.19
7.55
6.93
8.25
1.99
3.17
2.45
8.68
3.13
1.39
1.31
8.20
7.74
11.74
1.69
2.20
9.20
1.53
1.58
6.51
100.00
1.22
6.63
3.37
2.44
1.69
3.46
2.40
9.62
1.38
0.99
1.86
5.28
1.22
5.93
14.13
1.48
6.50
2.66
0.90
100.00
2.67
13.05
7.09
1.91
1.51
3.42
5.84
10.63
0.87
0.57
3.82
10.49
3.04
4.39
11.46
3.54
3.89
1.92
1.69
100.00
2.89
13.85
8.07
1.68
1.54
2.97
6.23
9.88
0.69
0.49
4.51
11.83
3.84
3.67
10.49
4.00
3.35
1.55
1.82
100.00
2.87
14.38
8.71
1.52
1.68
2.66
6.51
9.43
0.60
0.41
4.78
12.79
4.49
3.14
9.72
4.27
3.10
1.32
1.84
5.67
1.62
0.69
26.83
8.21
6.65
5.76
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
Indigence Line
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
57922940
874673
4054089
2103859
1068097
1037291
2210602
1449463
6030150
880666
925188
1131244
2813893
840046
3550283
6727574
927317
3898946
1645900
663221
15090438
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
338.01
202.29
193.64
196.67
466.30
320.25
261.34
177.96
302.09
295.59
291.11
191.16
183.12
154.61
371.68
379.80
202.78
395.25
389.92
185.85
460.90
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
16.74
34.40
39.54
34.13
10.37
16.75
17.15
37.37
15.97
13.15
15.05
35.21
37.53
36.49
8.24
11.16
30.73
10.41
6.40
41.04
6.43
14.16
16.91
13.85
3.42
5.84
6.09
14.61
5.55
3.45
5.37
13.79
16.55
16.50
2.51
3.90
13.05
3.73
1.88
16.43
3.54
7.62
9.71
7.51
1.87
2.95
3.15
7.84
2.93
1.71
2.73
7.01
10.08
9.47
1.19
2.09
6.76
1.90
0.99
8.60
100.00
1.51
7.00
3.63
1.84
1.79
3.82
2.50
10.41
1.52
1.60
1.95
4.86
1.45
6.13
11.61
1.60
6.73
2.84
1.15
100.00
3.10
16.53
7.40
1.14
1.79
3.91
5.58
9.93
1.19
1.44
4.11
10.89
3.16
3.02
7.74
2.94
4.19
1.09
2.81
100.00
3.32
18.40
7.82
0.98
1.63
3.61
5.68
8.98
0.81
1.33
4.19
12.49
3.72
2.39
7.04
3.25
3.90
0.83
2.92
100.00
3.25
19.22
7.72
0.97
1.49
3.40
5.55
8.64
0.73
1.23
3.87
13.84
3.88
2.06
6.88
3.06
3.62
0.80
2.79
5.17
1.66
0.95
26.05
8.05
6.70
6.99
43
Services – High Line
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using Per Capita Income From PNAD
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.55
-0.22
-0.04
-0.54
-1.15
-0.12
-0.56
-0.22
-0.83
0.23
-5.31
0.00
-0.28
-1.72
-0.58
-0.49
-0.13
-0.74
-0.71
-0.27
-0.73
-0.46
0.23
-1.28
-1.26
0.53
-0.63
-0.22
-1.35
0.42
-9.13
-0.31
0.14
-2.99
-0.86
-0.94
-0.30
-0.93
-1.09
0.09
-0.74
-0.48
0.55
-1.64
-1.31
0.79
-0.71
-0.23
-1.59
0.54
-11.77
-0.47
0.61
-3.51
-1.01
-1.13
-0.41
-0.91
-1.23
0.46
-0.87
-0.88
-0.91
44
STATE AND SECTORAL POVERTY PROFILE - 1985
Without Inputed Rent
High
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
45451489
552476
3013504
1533247
1111152
768332
1573468
1089330
4372903
627557
451727
845913
2398362
555601
2695803
6421789
674219
2952245
1207624
410842
12195395
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
305.56
150.39
174.68
185.31
403.55
344.57
274.10
119.16
276.06
274.72
298.50
165.80
174.52
147.83
287.51
326.63
145.15
352.62
285.12
165.95
421.56
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
58.80
81.39
78.11
77.92
50.90
54.69
63.23
87.87
63.66
57.84
52.58
76.97
78.83
81.69
59.68
56.85
81.53
51.61
60.63
77.27
30.58
51.71
47.41
49.04
25.10
28.76
32.04
54.30
33.62
26.65
24.49
48.01
48.06
53.87
28.50
28.32
51.68
23.99
29.65
46.60
19.49
36.57
32.93
34.94
15.39
18.42
19.84
38.49
21.41
15.35
14.27
34.18
33.60
39.86
16.85
17.29
37.21
14.15
17.50
32.13
100.00
1.22
6.63
3.37
2.44
1.69
3.46
2.40
9.62
1.38
0.99
1.86
5.28
1.22
5.93
14.13
1.48
6.50
2.66
0.90
100.00
1.68
8.81
4.47
2.12
1.57
3.72
3.58
10.42
1.36
0.89
2.44
7.07
1.70
6.02
13.66
2.06
5.70
2.74
1.19
100.00
2.06
10.28
5.41
2.01
1.59
3.63
4.26
10.58
1.20
0.80
2.92
8.29
2.15
5.53
13.09
2.51
5.10
2.58
1.38
100.00
2.28
11.20
6.05
1.93
1.60
3.52
4.73
10.57
1.09
0.73
3.26
9.10
2.50
5.13
12.53
2.83
4.72
2.39
1.49
41.22
16.70
8.98
26.83
18.81
14.65
12.36
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Population
(%)
55.35
75.08
77.80
75.36
41.77
55.16
64.87
78.36
58.70
58.83
59.50
76.95
77.76
75.22
49.51
52.35
77.21
46.97
44.89
74.80
28.20
43.55
48.59
45.19
20.18
27.68
32.98
48.53
29.34
27.49
30.04
45.73
48.41
46.49
21.30
23.96
45.57
21.28
17.74
47.10
17.95
30.56
34.90
31.43
12.26
17.39
20.49
34.16
18.20
15.97
18.43
31.72
34.61
33.44
11.87
14.12
31.20
12.59
9.57
33.92
100.00
1.51
7.00
3.63
1.84
1.79
3.82
2.50
10.41
1.52
1.60
1.95
4.86
1.45
6.13
11.61
1.60
6.73
2.84
1.15
100.00
2.05
9.84
4.95
1.39
1.78
4.47
3.54
11.04
1.62
1.72
2.72
6.83
1.97
5.48
10.99
2.23
5.71
2.30
1.55
100.00
2.33
12.06
5.82
1.32
1.76
4.46
4.31
10.83
1.48
1.70
3.17
8.34
2.39
4.63
9.87
2.59
5.08
1.79
1.91
100.00
2.57
13.61
6.36
1.26
1.73
4.36
4.76
10.56
1.35
1.64
3.45
9.37
2.70
4.05
9.13
2.78
4.72
1.51
2.16
37.86
15.33
8.21
26.05
17.82
14.16
11.92
STATE POVERTY PROFILE - 1996
Without Inputed Rent
High Poverty Line
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Total
Population
57922940
874673
4054089
2103859
1068097
1037291
2210602
1449463
6030150
880666
925188
1131244
2813893
840046
3550283
6727574
927317
3898946
1645900
663221
15090438
Average
Per Capita
Earnings
338.01
202.29
193.64
196.67
466.30
320.25
261.34
177.96
302.09
295.59
291.11
191.16
183.12
154.61
371.68
379.80
202.78
395.25
389.92
185.85
460.90
45
Contribution to Total Poverty
P0
P1
P2
(%)
(%)
(%)
Appendix B: Applying the Elasticity Formula Using Per Capita GDP (IPEA)
I - Total
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Overall GDP
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.85
-1.58
0.11
-0.47
-11.20
-3.53
0.04
-0.90
-0.67
-0.12
0.04
-0.53
-0.12
-0.20
-0.67
-1.67
1.59
-0.99
-2.02
1.51
-0.06
-0.82
-0.11
2.12
-0.84
-8.09
-3.80
0.28
-1.16
-0.90
0.15
0.39
-1.34
0.42
-0.59
-0.89
-1.57
3.61
-0.84
-1.96
1.63
6.24
-0.39
1.75
5.12
-0.87
-0.47
0.30
0.85
-1.15
-0.83
0.71
1.21
-1.72
1.08
-0.81
-0.93
-0.90
4.53
-0.35
-1.60
1.18
18.24
46
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Overall GDP
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-1.09
0.49
0.86
-1.21
-9.20
-3.59
-0.01
-1.48
-1.12
0.44
0.02
-1.69
0.17
-0.69
-1.12
-1.83
4.65
-0.80
-1.89
1.95
11.98
0.18
4.52
8.83
-0.96
14.08
8.93
1.74
-1.13
-0.71
1.72
2.82
-2.18
1.83
-1.03
-0.96
0.62
5.37
0.69
-0.80
0.60
43.90
2.02
9.23
18.73
-0.35
54.26
25.98
4.58
-0.52
0.03
4.61
7.41
-2.24
3.88
-1.16
-0.58
4.78
6.08
2.87
1.02
-1.96
101.85
47
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Overall GDP
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.56
-1.09
0.10
-0.25
-12.03
0.16
0.03
-0.66
-0.39
-0.06
0.01
-0.22
-0.14
-0.09
-0.40
-0.97
0.94
-0.69
-1.15
1.31
-1.69
-0.74
-0.78
1.10
-0.61
-10.50
-2.71
0.14
-0.98
-0.69
0.03
0.22
-0.87
0.14
-0.40
-0.68
-1.37
2.46
-0.82
-1.74
1.51
1.68
-0.68
0.10
2.54
-0.76
-7.47
-2.48
0.35
-1.09
-0.80
0.22
0.51
-1.27
0.48
-0.59
-0.81
-1.35
3.41
-0.73
-1.81
1.45
6.22
48
PER CAPITA GDP - Total
1985
1996
3,841.50
1,534.40
2,454.00
1,456.32
8,830.42
3,543.60
3,260.72
1,118.66
3,283.00
5,070.29
3,626.03
1,127.76
1,803.14
1,000.13
3,823.85
4,819.72
1,940.85
4,789.21
3,975.54
2,599.55
6,404.09
4,159.55
1,603.44
2,523.50
1,626.26
8,927.44
3,580.78
3,653.34
1,205.83
3,846.49
6,329.42
4,027.74
1,263.62
1,912.95
1,252.67
4,938.58
5,265.75
1,839.80
5,469.96
4,593.73
2,486.54
6,487.01
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
Source: Ipea
49
II - Agriculture
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.12
-0.04
0.00
-0.09
0.12
-0.51
0.20
-0.15
-0.21
-0.03
0.01
-1.59
-0.05
0.01
-0.40
-1.28
-0.32
-1.56
-1.22
-0.13
-0.86
-0.04
-1.76
0.78
-0.13
0.08
-0.73
0.44
-0.14
-0.24
0.19
0.11
-4.78
0.16
-0.36
0.75
-1.35
-0.80
-1.67
-0.22
-0.02
0.21
0.20
-3.31
1.70
-0.08
0.09
-1.10
0.79
-0.13
-0.03
0.54
0.35
-5.84
0.43
-0.56
1.26
-1.19
-1.05
-1.28
0.98
0.10
0.44
50
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.25
-2.17
0.31
-0.32
0.28
-0.70
0.34
-0.14
-0.47
0.13
0.07
-6.37
-0.02
-0.39
2.45
-1.57
-1.06
-2.05
0.47
-0.16
0.83
0.44
-5.45
2.66
-0.08
0.08
-1.92
1.18
-0.11
0.26
1.08
0.78
-7.27
0.69
-0.73
2.05
-0.69
-1.27
-0.46
2.98
0.17
0.91
1.26
-8.67
5.30
0.29
0.12
-2.99
2.60
-0.05
1.18
3.01
1.92
-6.30
1.46
-0.87
1.02
0.40
-1.43
1.87
6.14
0.69
-2.86
51
52
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Agriculture
States
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
-0.01
0.16
0.06
-0.03
0.36
-0.27
0.17
-0.06
0.00
0.02
0.00
-0.23
-0.05
0.07
-0.80
-0.69
-0.13
-0.64
-0.61
-0.08
-0.05
-0.04
-0.86
0.44
-0.09
0.19
-0.48
0.32
-0.12
-0.18
0.10
0.07
-3.06
0.05
-0.20
-0.04
-1.17
-0.53
-1.30
-0.58
-0.06
-0.19
0.03
-1.82
0.92
-0.10
0.13
-0.71
0.48
-0.13
-0.16
0.24
0.15
-4.48
0.19
-0.37
0.53
-1.24
-0.78
-1.42
-0.13
0.00
0.01
53
PER CAPITA GDP - Agriculture
1985
1996
427.06
254.53
397.26
173.82
35.80
534.59
1,352.86
277.65
558.13
2,825.53
1,381.13
195.91
148.87
297.25
719.23
66.79
145.82
734.49
442.66
243.66
280.77
482.70
234.91
444.11
208.97
45.90
422.16
1,620.16
388.06
619.80
3,592.27
1,917.87
199.92
164.05
380.86
677.19
70.00
184.26
807.38
495.81
312.01
266.93
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
54
III - Manufacturing
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
10.95
-0.09
-0.41
0.41
7.83
1.82
-2.91
0.14
-1.05
-1.37
0.01
0.51
-0.39
0.16
-0.65
-5.98
0.26
-1.07
-5.41
-0.23
10.45
-1.59
-0.44
0.81
9.99
4.10
-2.98
-0.07
-1.49
-1.80
-0.08
2.06
-1.19
-0.43
-0.75
-6.90
0.66
-0.13
-6.47
0.18
7.02
-3.11
-0.81
1.03
10.35
5.50
-1.97
-0.27
-1.63
-1.49
0.04
3.10
-1.73
-0.64
-0.71
-6.49
0.79
0.81
-6.66
0.30
1.26
0.58
-0.77
55
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
12.99
-2.53
-0.22
1.44
10.78
6.33
-4.90
-0.18
-1.81
0.17
0.38
2.67
-1.55
-0.89
-0.92
-8.50
0.77
0.01
-6.75
0.54
0.05
-5.56
-1.49
1.38
9.23
7.68
0.42
-0.55
-1.82
-0.79
0.40
4.53
-2.60
-1.08
-0.45
-4.56
0.89
4.02
-6.22
0.39
-17.44
-9.12
-3.02
1.21
6.81
8.93
11.59
-1.12
-1.39
0.13
0.44
5.39
-3.16
-0.59
0.19
2.22
0.92
9.26
-4.18
-0.13
0.97
-5.33
-17.45
56
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
High Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Manufacturing
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
5.91
-0.06
-0.29
0.19
7.25
-1.47
-0.83
0.08
-0.51
-1.00
-0.03
0.22
-0.21
0.19
-0.39
-3.92
-0.07
-1.35
-2.70
-0.10
9.06
-0.81
-0.37
0.55
8.69
1.44
-2.22
0.03
-1.04
-1.49
-0.04
1.25
-0.70
-0.19
-0.61
-5.63
0.36
-0.85
-4.84
0.03
9.09
-1.61
-0.52
0.77
9.43
3.22
-2.48
-0.08
-1.32
-1.57
-0.03
2.04
-1.10
-0.39
-0.68
-6.25
0.57
-0.35
-5.76
0.14
0.54
0.73
0.43
57
PER CAPITA GDP - Manufacturing
1985
1996
1,623.82
476.06
1,057.57
426.38
497.59
1,294.76
594.65
368.71
1,279.31
592.52
627.65
291.58
649.39
209.15
1,379.24
2,099.25
963.41
1,770.08
1,897.45
1,341.23
3,357.53
1,610.80
416.07
950.88
376.79
481.41
1,238.62
613.77
252.17
1,466.61
649.71
464.72
264.45
538.52
237.78
1,948.40
2,175.98
786.97
1,870.58
2,025.05
1,042.67
3,115.36
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
IV - Services
58
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Low Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.59
-0.90
-0.02
-0.32
-15.11
-0.44
0.59
-0.46
-0.56
0.04
15.27
-0.21
-0.05
-0.52
-0.75
-1.27
-1.76
-0.68
-1.69
-0.27
-0.58
-0.97
0.46
-0.53
-17.02
-0.58
0.38
-0.58
-0.76
0.11
17.92
-0.33
0.14
-0.61
-0.95
-1.51
-3.89
-0.56
-1.84
0.55
-0.42
-0.81
0.97
-0.55
-17.19
-0.51
0.49
-0.63
-0.78
0.24
24.20
-0.40
0.36
-0.65
-1.04
-1.50
-4.92
-0.31
-1.85
1.13
-0.88
-0.86
-0.55
59
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
Indigence Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.63
-0.84
0.64
-0.58
-22.80
0.09
-0.78
-0.87
-1.02
0.47
23.66
-0.30
0.09
-0.73
-1.17
-1.88
-6.89
-0.28
-1.95
1.61
-0.10
-0.47
1.85
-0.53
-19.11
-0.14
1.06
-0.71
-0.80
0.20
38.15
-0.52
0.63
-0.69
-1.11
-1.42
-5.83
0.48
-1.89
2.16
0.70
0.05
3.10
-0.41
-4.78
-0.59
3.50
-0.49
-0.29
0.86
62.72
-0.58
1.48
-0.68
-0.87
-0.34
-5.96
1.11
-1.40
2.78
-0.72
0.19
3.12
60
GROWTH ELASTICITY OF POVERTY - 1985/96
Using State Per Capita GDP from IPEA
High Poverty Line and and without Inputed Rent
Sector of Activity : Services
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
P0
(%)
P1
(%)
P2
(%)
-0.38
-0.42
-0.03
-0.15
-14.44
0.07
0.32
-0.55
-0.36
0.07
7.63
0.00
-0.07
-0.28
-0.50
-0.57
-1.19
-0.40
-0.97
-0.28
-0.51
-0.85
0.19
-0.36
-15.77
-0.31
0.36
-0.54
-0.59
0.12
13.12
-0.19
0.03
-0.48
-0.74
-1.12
-2.66
-0.51
-1.50
0.09
-0.51
-0.89
0.46
-0.47
-16.38
-0.46
0.41
-0.57
-0.69
0.15
16.91
-0.29
0.15
-0.57
-0.87
-1.33
-3.63
-0.50
-1.69
0.48
-0.67
-0.67
-0.69
61
PER CAPITA GDP - Services
1985
1996
1,790.62
803.80
999.17
856.12
8,297.03
1,714.24
1,313.21
472.30
1,445.55
1,652.25
1,617.25
640.27
1,004.88
493.73
1,725.38
2,653.68
831.62
2,284.64
1,635.42
1,014.66
2,765.78
2,066.06
952.46
1,128.50
1,040.49
8,400.13
1,920.00
1,419.41
565.60
1,760.08
2,087.44
1,645.15
799.26
1,210.38
634.03
2,312.99
3,019.76
868.57
2,792.00
2,072.87
1,131.85
3,104.72
States
Total
Alagoas
Bahia
Ceará
Distrito Federal
Espírito Santo
Goiás
Maranhão
Minas Gerais
Mato Grosso do Sul
Mato Grosso
Paraíba
Pernambuco
Piauí
Paraná
Rio de Janeiro
Rio Grande do Norte
Rio Grande do Sul
Santa Catarina
Sergipe
São Paulo
62
Appendix C: Testing the Robustness of the Regression Approach in Differences of
Logs
PO – Low Line
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.036356 0.027089 1.342 0.1921 0.0698
DifLRDPC
-0.66269
0.13508 -4.906 0.0001 0.5007
R^2 = 0.500719 F(1,24) = 24.069 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.116107 DW = 2.19
RSS = 0.3235394641 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.011188 0.036020 -0.311 0.7589 0.0042
DifLRDPC
-0.71222
0.13105 -5.435 0.0000 0.5622
DifLAnalf
-0.17453 0.092463 -1.888 0.0718 0.1341
R^2 = 0.567687 F(2,23) = 15.101 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.110364 DW = 2.10
RSS = 0.280143213 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.020497 0.032110 -0.638 0.5298 0.0182
DifLRDPC
-0.76818
0.11799 -6.511 0.0000 0.6583
DifLAnalf -0.067502 0.091045 -0.741 0.4663 0.0244
DifL(%)Ind. -0.43274
0.16038 -2.698 0.0131 0.2486
R^2 = 0.675178 F(3,22) = 15.243 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0978143 DW = 2.08
RSS = 0.210488092 for 4 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable
Constant
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
-0.018031 0.032924 -0.548 0.5897 0.0141
63
DifLRDPC
-0.80386
0.13590 -5.915 0.0000 0.6249
DifLAnalf -0.058099 0.094031 -0.618 0.5433 0.0179
DifL(%)Ind. -0.41161
0.16731 -2.460 0.0226 0.2237
DifL(%)Serv 0.16395
0.29419 0.557 0.5832 0.0146
R^2 = 0.679912 F(4,21) = 11.152 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.0993839 DW = 2.18
RSS = 0.2074204414 for 5 variables and 26 observations
P2 – Low Line
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.20074 0.027535 7.290 0.0000 0.6889
DifLRDPC
-1.3967
0.13730 -10.172 0.0000 0.8117
R^2 = 0.811734 F(1,24) = 103.48 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.118021 DW = 1.71
RSS = 0.3342961152 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.18520 0.039073 4.740 0.0001 0.4941
DifLRDPC
-1.4129
0.14216 -9.939 0.0000 0.8111
DifLAnalf -0.057050
0.10030 -0.569 0.5750 0.0139
R^2 = 0.814345 F(2,23) = 50.443 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.119721 DW = 1.67
RSS = 0.32965924 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.17765 0.037286 4.765 0.0001 0.5078
DifLRDPC
-1.4583
0.13700 -10.644 0.0000 0.8374
DifLAnalf
0.029776
0.10572 0.282 0.7808 0.0036
DifL(%)Ind. -0.35106
0.18624 -1.885 0.0727 0.1391
R^2 = 0.840162 F(3,22) = 38.546 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.113582 DW = 1.70
RSS = 0.283818066 for 4 variables and 26 observations
64
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.17516 0.038299 4.573 0.0002 0.4990
DifLRDPC
-1.4222
0.15809 -8.996 0.0000 0.7940
DifLAnalf
0.020271
0.10938 0.185 0.8548 0.0016
DifL(%)Ind. -0.37243
0.19463 -1.914 0.0694 0.1485
DifL(%)Serv -0.16574
0.34223 -0.484 0.6332 0.0110
R^2 = 0.841927 F(4,21) = 27.963 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.115611 DW = 1.67
RSS = 0.2806830915 for 5 variables and 26 observations
P1 – Indigence Line
Modelling DifLP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.34422 0.036289 9.485 0.0000 0.7894
DifLRDPC
-1.8344
0.18095 -10.137 0.0000 0.8107
R^2 = 0.810679 F(1,24) = 102.77 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.155541 DW = 1.35
RSS = 0.5806303062 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.33304 0.051749 6.436 0.0000 0.6430
DifLRDPC
-1.8461
0.18828 -9.805 0.0000 0.8069
DifLAnalf -0.041030
0.13284 -0.309 0.7602 0.0041
R^2 = 0.811461 F(2,23) = 49.495 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.158558 DW = 1.33
RSS = 0.5782319515 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.32836 0.052402 6.266 0.0000 0.6409
DifLRDPC
-1.8742
0.19255 -9.734 0.0000 0.8116
65
DifLAnalf
0.012831
DifL(%)Ind. -0.21778
0.14858 0.086 0.9320 0.0003
0.26174 -0.832 0.4143 0.0305
R^2 = 0.817213 F(3,22) = 32.786 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.159629 DW = 1.36
RSS = 0.5605914973 for 4 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.32172 0.053043 6.065 0.0000 0.6366
DifLRDPC
-1.7782
0.21895 -8.122 0.0000 0.7585
DifLAnalf -0.012466
0.15149 -0.082 0.9352 0.0003
DifL(%)Ind. -0.27464
0.26955 -1.019 0.3199 0.0471
DifL(%)Serv -0.44112
0.47397 -0.931 0.3626 0.0396
R^2 = 0.824454 F(4,21) = 24.657 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.160117 DW = 1.36
RSS = 0.5383848953 for 5 variables and 26 observations
P1 – High Line
Modelling DifLP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.064003 0.020517 3.120 0.0047 0.2885
DifLRDPC
-0.77564
0.10231 -7.582 0.0000 0.7055
R^2 = 0.705452 F(1,24) = 57.481 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0879376 DW = 2.08
RSS = 0.1855924374 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.044002 0.028705 1.533 0.1389 0.0927
DifLRDPC
-0.79648
0.10444 -7.626 0.0000 0.7166
DifLAnalf -0.073422 0.073685 -0.996 0.3294 0.0414
R^2 = 0.717641 F(2,23) = 29.228 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0879507 DW = 2.02
RSS = 0.1779123621 for 3 variables and 26 observations
66
Modelling DifLP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.036322 0.025284 1.437 0.1649 0.0858
DifLRDPC
-0.84264 0.092904 -9.070 0.0000 0.7890
DifLAnalf
0.014871 0.071690 0.207 0.8376 0.0020
DifL(%)Ind. -0.35699
0.12629 -2.827 0.0098 0.2664
R^2 = 0.792874 F(3,22) = 28.072 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0770209 DW = 2.02
RSS = 0.1305089211 for 4 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Alta by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.036588 0.026112 1.401 0.1758 0.0855
DifLRDPC
-0.84649
0.10779 -7.853 0.0000 0.7460
DifLAnalf
0.015884 0.074578 0.213 0.8334 0.0022
DifL(%)Ind. -0.35472
0.13270 -2.673 0.0142 0.2539
DifL(%)Serv 0.017665
0.23333 0.076 0.9404 0.0003
R^2 = 0.79293 F(4,21) = 20.104 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0788227 DW = 2.03
RSS = 0.1304733086 for 5 variables and 26 observations
67
Appendix D: Testing the Robustness of the Function Form
Modelling Dif_P0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
1.6200
0.88856 1.823 0.0807 0.1217
Dif_RDPC
-0.20425 0.024235 -8.428 0.0000 0.7474
R^2 = 0.747446 F(1,24) = 71.029 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.97047 DW = 1.68
RSS = 378.3520449 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_RDPC
-0.14470 0.021735 -6.657 0.0000 0.6487
Constant
1.6529
0.79690 2.074 0.0490 0.1520
R^2 = 0.648717 F(1,24) = 44.321 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.56088 DW = 2.46
RSS = 304.3170693 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
1.7752
0.80019 2.218 0.0362 0.1702
Dif_RDPC
-0.10450 0.021825 -4.788 0.0001 0.4885
R^2 = 0.488545 F(1,24) = 22.925 [0.0001] \sigma = 3.57561 DW = 2.59
RSS = 306.8394929 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Including Illiteracy rates
Modelling Dif_P0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.84252
1.3100 0.643 0.5265 0.0177
Dif_RDPC
-0.20863 0.024998 -8.346 0.0000 0.7518
Dif_Analf
-13.969
17.187 -0.813 0.4247 0.0279
R^2 = 0.754497 F(2,23) = 35.343 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.99885 DW = 1.69
68
RSS = 367.789333 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_RDPC
-0.13525 0.020827 -6.494 0.0000 0.6471
Dif_Analf
30.088
14.320 2.101 0.0468 0.1610
Constant
3.3276
1.0915 3.049 0.0057 0.2878
R^2 = 0.705284 F(2,23) = 27.521 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.33175 DW = 2.31
RSS = 255.3130458 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_Analf
34.876
13.913 2.507 0.0197 0.2146
Constant
3.7164
1.0604 3.505 0.0019 0.3481
Dif_RDPC
-0.093548 0.020235 -4.623 0.0001 0.4817
R^2 = 0.598292 F(2,23) = 17.128 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.237 DW = 2.40
RSS = 240.9982005 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Including Sectoral Shares
Modelling Dif_P0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
1.1707
1.4172 0.826 0.4180 0.0315
Dif_RDPC
-0.22208 0.030537 -7.273 0.0000 0.7158
Dif_Analf
-7.7482
22.248 -0.348 0.7311 0.0057
Dif_(%)Ind.
8.0318
34.296 0.234 0.8171 0.0026
Dif_(%)Serv
28.184
30.533 0.923 0.3665 0.0390
R^2 = 0.765684 F(4,21) = 17.156 [0.0000] \sigma = 4.08848 DW = 1.94
RSS = 351.0292599 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
69
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_RDPC
-0.13419 0.025867 -5.188 0.0000 0.5617
Dif_Analf
36.268
18.846 1.924 0.0679 0.1499
Dif_(%)Ind.
-11.549
29.052 -0.398 0.6950 0.0075
Dif_(%)Serv
1.3648
25.864 0.053 0.9584 0.0001
Constant
3.2680
1.2005 2.722 0.0128 0.2608
R^2 = 0.709245 F(4,21) = 12.806 [0.0000] \sigma = 3.46329 DW = 2.37
RSS = 251.8815451 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_Analf
41.911
18.241 2.298 0.0320 0.2009
Dif_(%)Ind.
-17.560
28.120 -0.624 0.5390 0.0182
Dif_(%)Serv -4.4647
25.035 -0.178 0.8602 0.0015
Constant
3.5615
1.1620 3.065 0.0059 0.3091
Dif_RDPC
-0.089080 0.025038 -3.558 0.0019 0.3761
R^2 = 0.606656 F(4,21) = 8.0971 [0.0004] \sigma = 3.35219 DW = 2.42
RSS = 235.980464 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Simple Regression with Initial Level of Poverty
Modelling Dif_P0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
3.6855
3.0082 1.225 0.2329 0.0613
Dif_RDPC
-0.20014 0.025139 -7.962 0.0000 0.7338
P085L_Baix -0.034736 0.048287 -0.719 0.4792 0.0220
R^2 = 0.753003 F(2,23) = 35.059 [0.0000] \sigma = 4.011 DW = 1.54
RSS = 370.0266865 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Dif_RDPC
-0.12947 0.017155 -7.547 0.0000 0.7124
Constant
6.4189
1.2986 4.943 0.0001 0.5151
70
P185_Baix
-0.15349
0.036844 -4.166 0.0004 0.4301
R^2 = 0.799792 F(2,23) = 45.94 [0.0000] \sigma = 2.74607 DW = 1.94
RSS = 173.4409241 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling Dif_P2Ind by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
5.1746
1.0033 5.158 0.0000 0.5363
Dif_RDPC
-0.037240 0.015890 -2.344 0.0281 0.1928
P285_Baix
-0.15848 0.041357 -3.832 0.0009 0.3897
R^2 = 0.519854 F(2,23) = 12.451 [0.0002] \sigma = 2.5481 DW = 2.16
RSS = 149.3350925 for 3 variables and 26 observations
First Differences of Logs (1996 – 1985)
This appendix present estimation of the sensitivity of the three FGT indices using
the basic poverty line and a Difference in logs specification. We also use the initial log of
poverty as an additional exogenous variable in the exercise.
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.015789 0.011764 1.342 0.1921 0.0698
DifLRDPC
-0.66269
0.13508 -4.906 0.0001 0.5007
R^2 = 0.500719 F(1,24) = 24.069 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.0504246 DW = 2.19
RSS = 0.06102332737 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
DifLRDPC
-1.1091
0.13353 -8.306 0.0000 0.7419
Constant
0.049160 0.011629 4.227 0.0003 0.4268
R^2 = 0.741905 F(1,24) = 68.989 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0498456 DW = 2.01
RSS = 0.0596299477 for 2 variables and 26 observations
71
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.087181 0.011958 7.290 0.0000 0.6889
DifLRDPC
-1.3967
0.13730 -10.172 0.0000 0.8117
R^2 = 0.811734 F(1,24) = 103.48 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.051256 DW = 1.71
RSS = 0.0630521576 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
DifLRDPC
-0.71222
0.13105 -5.435 0.0000 0.5622
DifLAnalf
-0.17453 0.092463 -1.888 0.0718 0.1341
Constant
-0.0048587 0.015643 -0.311 0.7589 0.0042
R^2= 0.567687 F(2,23) = 15.101 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.0479303 DW = 2.10
RSS = 0.05283828681 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
DifLAnalf -0.091353 0.096361 -0.948 0.3530 0.0376
Constant
0.038352 0.016303 2.353 0.0276 0.1940
DifLRDPC
-1.1350
0.13657 -8.310 0.0000 0.7502
R^2 = 0.751611 F(2,23) = 34.798 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.049951 DW = 1.94
RSS = 0.05738744731 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.080432 0.016969 4.740 0.0001 0.4941
DifLRDPC
-1.4129
0.14216 -9.939 0.0000 0.8111
DifLAnalf -0.057050
0.10030 -0.569 0.5750 0.0139
R^2 = 0.814345 F(2,23) = 50.443 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.051994 DW = 1.67
RSS = 0.06217758869 for 3 variables and 26 observations
72
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.0078309 0.014299 -0.548 0.5897 0.0141
DifLRDPC
-0.80386
0.13590 -5.915 0.0000 0.6249
DifLAnalf -0.058099 0.094031 -0.618 0.5433 0.0179
DifL(%)Ind. -0.41161
0.16731 -2.460 0.0226 0.2237
DifL(%)Serv 0.16395
0.29419 0.557 0.5832 0.0146
R^2 = 0.679912 F(4,21) = 11.152 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.0431619 DW = 2.18
RSS = 0.03912192144 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
DifLRDPC
-1.1850
0.14608 -8.112 0.0000 0.7581
DifLAnalf
0.010674
0.10107 0.106 0.9169 0.0005
DifL(%)Ind. -0.41902
0.17984 -2.330 0.0299 0.2054
DifL(%)Serv -0.017987
0.31622 -0.057 0.9552 0.0002
Constant
0.034342 0.015369 2.234 0.0365 0.1921
R^2 = 0.804366 F(4,21) = 21.586 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0463932 DW = 1.94
RSS = 0.04519897482 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
DifLAnalf
0.020271
0.10938 0.185 0.8548 0.0016
DifL(%)Ind. -0.37243
0.19463 -1.914 0.0694 0.1485
DifL(%)Serv -0.16574
0.34223 -0.484 0.6332 0.0110
Constant
0.076070 0.016633 4.573 0.0002 0.4990
DifLRDPC
-1.4222
0.15809 -8.996 0.0000 0.7940
R^2 = 0.841927 F(4,21) = 27.963 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0502091 DW = 1.67
RSS = 0.05294011421 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
73
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.061897 0.038528 -1.607 0.1218 0.1009
DifLRDPC
-0.83969
0.15180 -5.532 0.0000 0.5709
P085L_Baix 0.0013979 0.00066437 2.104 0.0465 0.1614
R^2 = 0.581307 F(2,23) = 15.966 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0471693 DW = 2.16
RSS = 0.05117371064 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.019048 0.024191 0.787 0.4391 0.0263
DifLRDPC
-1.2389
0.15998 -7.745 0.0000 0.7228
P185_Baix
0.0011048 0.00078287 1.411 0.1716 0.0797
R^2 = 0.762471 F(2,23) = 36.915 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0488469 DW = 1.78
RSS = 0.05487851685 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling DifLP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.025079 0.017811 -1.408 0.1725 0.0794
DifLRDPC
-0.90133
0.14596 -6.175 0.0000 0.6238
P285_Baix
0.0024415 0.00086555 2.821 0.0097 0.2570
R^2 = 0.629045 F(2,23) = 19.501 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.0443989 DW = 1.96
RSS = 0.04533899123 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Rate of Variation between 1996 and 1985
This appendix present estimation of the sensitivity of the three FGT indices using
the basic poverty line and a rate of variation specification. We also use the initial level of
poverty as an additional exogenous variable in the exercise.
Modelling VarP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable
Constant
Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
0.060284 0.032025 1.882 0.0720 0.1286
74
VarRDPC
-0.63296
0.14287 -4.430 0.0002 0.4499
R^2 = 0.449899 F(1,24) = 19.628 [0.0002] \sigma = 0.132941 DW = 2.59
RSS = 0.4241565722 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.16915 0.042893 3.944 0.0006 0.3932
VarRDPC
-1.1499
0.19135 -6.009 0.0000 0.6007
R^2 = 0.600749 F(1,24) = 36.113 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.178055 DW = 2.41
RSS = 0.7608881815 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
VarRDPC
-1.5678
0.23638 -6.633 0.0000 0.6470
Constant
0.29583 0.052986 5.583 0.0000 0.5650
R^2 = 0.64702 F(1,24) = 43.993 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.219953 DW = 2.19
RSS = 1.16110652 for 2 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.016704 0.035623 0.469 0.6436 0.0095
VarRDPC
-0.70509
0.13643 -5.168 0.0000 0.5373
VarAnalf
-0.22467
0.10142 -2.215 0.0369 0.1758
R^2 = 0.546632 F(2,23) = 13.866 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.123283 DW = 2.36
RSS = 0.3495704483 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
VarAnalf
-0.19346
0.14409 -1.343 0.1925 0.0727
Constant
0.13163 0.050610 2.601 0.0160 0.2273
VarRDPC
-1.2120
0.19383 -6.253 0.0000 0.6296
75
R^2 = 0.629768 F(2,23) = 19.562 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.17515 DW = 2.15
RSS = 0.7055834946 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
VarRDPC
-1.6264
0.24333 -6.684 0.0000 0.6601
VarAnalf
-0.18231
0.18088 -1.008 0.3240 0.0423
Constant
0.26047 0.063535 4.100 0.0004 0.4222
R^2 = 0.661951 F(2,23) = 22.519 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.219881 DW = 1.96
RSS = 1.111992696 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.0071203 0.034550 0.206 0.8387 0.0020
VarRDPC
-0.71016
0.14722 -4.824 0.0001 0.5256
VarAnalf
-0.10559
0.11999 -0.880 0.3888 0.0356
Var(%)Ind.
-0.47851
0.23868 -2.005 0.0580 0.1606
Var(%)Serv. -0.17321
0.35614 -0.486 0.6318 0.0111
R^2 = 0.619467 F(4,21) = 8.5464 [0.0003] \sigma = 0.118203 DW = 2.24
RSS = 0.2934113563 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
VarRDPC
-1.1646
0.21457 -5.427 0.0000 0.5838
VarAnalf
-0.086830
0.17488 -0.496 0.6247 0.0116
Var(%)Ind.
-0.54624
0.34788 -1.570 0.1313 0.1051
Var(%)Serv. -0.47097
0.51907 -0.907 0.3745 0.0377
Constant
0.11903 0.050356 2.364 0.0278 0.2101
R^2 = 0.672951 F(4,21) = 10.803 [0.0001] \sigma = 0.17228 DW = 2.03
RSS = 0.6232860611 for 5 variables and 26 observations
76
Modelling VarP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
VarAnalf
-0.10321
0.22119 -0.467 0.6456 0.0103
Var(%)Ind.
-0.56053
0.44000 -1.274 0.2166 0.0717
Var(%)Serv. -0.76609
0.65652 -1.167 0.2563 0.0609
Constant
0.24582 0.063690 3.860 0.0009 0.4150
VarRDPC
-1.5225
0.27138 -5.610 0.0000 0.5998
R^2 = 0.696883 F(4,21) = 12.07 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.217899 DW = 1.90
RSS = 0.9970836892 for 5 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP0Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
-0.077258
0.10688 -0.723 0.4770 0.0222
VarRDPC
-0.76420
0.17099 -4.469 0.0002 0.4648
P085L_Baix 0.0025123 0.0018655 1.347 0.1912 0.0731
R^2 = 0.490107 F(2,23) = 11.054 [0.0004] \sigma = 0.130743 DW = 2.51
RSS = 0.3931541573 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP1Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.10758 0.088769 1.212 0.2379 0.0600
VarRDPC
-1.2641
0.24055 -5.255 0.0000 0.5456
P185_Baix
0.0023304 0.0029342 0.794 0.4352 0.0267
R^2 = 0.611406 F(2,23) = 18.094 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.179441 DW = 2.26
RSS = 0.7405784124 for 3 variables and 26 observations
Modelling VarP2Baix by OLS
The present sample is: 1 to 26
Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob PartR^2
Constant
0.29074
0.11784 2.467 0.0215 0.2093
VarRDPC
-1.5766
0.30152 -5.229 0.0000 0.5431
P285L_Alta 0.00019346 0.0039757 0.049 0.9616 0.0001
77
R^2 = 0.647056 F(2,23) = 21.083 [0.0000] \sigma = 0.224672 DW = 2.18
RSS = 1.160986996 for 3 variables and 26 observations
78