Last Name _________________________ First Name _________________________ ID _______________________ Operations Management I 73-331-91 (Distance) Winter 2003 Final Exam Solution Tuesday, April 15, 8:30 – 11:30 a.m. Instructor: Mohammed Fazle Baki Aids Permitted: Calculator, straightedge, and 3 one-sided formula sheets. Time available: 3 hours Instructions: This exam has 32 pages including this cover page, 1 blank page and 8 pages of Table It’s not necessary to return the tables and unused blank pages Please be sure to put your name and student ID number on each odd numbered page Show your work Grading: Question Score Question Score 1 /15 2 /8 3 /15 4 /10 5 /12 6 /6 7 /6 8 /8 9 /8 10 /4 11 /8 Total /100 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 1: (15 points) Circle the most appropriate answer 1.1 Jidoka a. prevents defects b. lights signal quality problem c. is the authority to stop production line d. makes problems visible 1.2 Which of the following is false about lot sizing heuristic procedures? a. Lot for lot minimizes carrying cost b. Lot for lot maximizes ordering cost c. Silver-Meal heuristic and least unit cost perform best if the costs change over time d. Silver-Meal heuristic and least unit cost perform best if the costs do not change over time 1.3 Material requirements planning is used for a. dependent demand and for assembly b. dependent demand and for both assembly and manufacturing c. independent demand and for assembly d. independent demand and for both assembly and manufacturing 1.4 We find an optimal Q, R policy subject to some service constraint because it’s difficult to a. estimate a penalty cost, p b. estimate lead time c. find an optimal Q without any service constraint d. find an optimal R without any service constraint 1.5 Backorder is charged if a. production is initiated by customer order b. production is initiated by demand forecast c. the excess demand is lost because the customer goes elsewhere d. the excess demand is backlogged and fulfilled in a future period 1.6 A rotation cycle policy is used a. to solve the lot sizing problem with capacity constraint b. if multiple products are manufactured using the same production facility c. to minimize hiring and firing when seasonal products are manufactured d. if the unit production time decreases due to learning and experience 1.7 Consider the all unit discount schedule. If a larger quantity is ordered, a. both the unit cost and total cost may decrease b. unit cost may decrease but the total cost increases c. both the unit cost and total cost may increase d. total cost may decrease but the unit cost increases 1.8 The following assumption of the EOQ model is not used in the finite production rate model: a. Demand and cost parameters are known and fixed. b. Shortages are not permitted. c. The inventory increases instantaneously at one point of time when an order is received. d. There is no price discount or resource constraint 2 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ 1.9 The following are some characteristics of the EOQ model cost curve a. Total annual holding cost is the same as total annual ordering cost b. The total annual cost does not change much from the optimal value if the order quantity is near the EOQ value c. Both of the above d. None of the above 1.10 Consider a seasonal demand series with an increasing trend. Compare multiplicative and additive forecasting series. a. There will be more fluctuation in the multiplicative series in the later years. b. There will be more fluctuation in the additive series in the later years. c. Both series will demonstrate the same fluctuation every year. d. Any of a, b, or c can be true. 1.11 a. b. c. d. Which of the following is not a part of the firing cost? Severance pay The costs of a decline in worker morale The potential for decreasing the size of the labor pool in the future The time and cost to advertise positions 1.12 a. b. c. d. The coefficient of correlation, r varies from -100 to 100 varies from -1 to +1 demonstrates a weak or no relationship if r is too small demonstrates a weak or no relationship if r is too large 1.13 a. b. c. d. Which of the following is false? Forecasts are usually wrong Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts Aggregate forecasts are less accurate than disaggregate forecasts Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts Consider learning curve. Consider the straight line that best fits ln u , ln Y u points. Which of the following is true? 1.14 a. b. c. d. 1.15 a. b. c. d. The intercept, c is an estimate of the time required by the first unit. The log of intercept, ln c is an estimate of the time required by the first unit. If the slope is less, then the learning is faster. If the slope is more, then the learning is faster. Economies of scale can be represented as f y kya where, k is a constant and a 1 a 1 a 1 a0 3 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 2: (8 points) A start-up firm has kept careful records of the time required to manufacture its product, a shutoff valve used in gasoline pipelines. Cumulative Number of Units Produced Number of Hours Required for Next Units 5 26.2 15 14.9 25 11.5 75 6.5 a. (2 points) Compute the logarithms of the numbers in each column. Cumulative Number of Number of Hours Required Ln(u) Units Produced For the Next Unit u Y(u) 5 15 25 75 26.2 14.9 11.5 6.5 1.60943791 2.7080502 3.21887582 4.31748811 Ln(Y(u)) 3.265759411 2.701361213 2.442347035 1.871802177 b. (4 points) Estimate the time required to produce the first unit and the appropriate percentage learning curve that fits these data. Use an exact least squares fit of the logarithms computed in part a. i x y xy x^2 ln(u) ln(y(u) 1 1.609437912 3.26575941 5.256037009 2.590290394 2 2.708050201 2.70136121 7.315421776 7.333535892 3 3.218875825 2.44234704 7.861611828 10.36116158 4 4.317488114 1.87180218 8.08148365 18.64070361 Sum 11.85385205 10.2812698 28.51455426 38.92569147 Average 2.963463013 2.57031746 n n n n xi y i xi y i i 1 i 1 4(28.5145) (11.8539)(10.2813) 0.5145 Slope i 1 2 n 4(38.9257) (11.8539) 2 n n xi2 xi i 1 i 1 Intercept y slope( x) 2.5703 (0.5145)( 2.9635) 4.0950 Time required to produce the first unit, a e intercept e 4.0950 60.0372 hours Rate of learning, L e slope.ln2 e 0..5145ln2 0.700045 70% c. (2 points) Estimate the time required to produce 130 th unit. b = -slope = 0.5145 Y (u) au b 60.0372(130) 0.5145 4.9072 hours 4 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 3: (15 points) A popular brand of tennis shoe has had the following demand history by quarters over a two-year period. Quarter Demand Quarter 2001 Demand 2002 1 35 1 47 2 50 2 58 3 55 3 64 4 45 4 56 a. (6 points) Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter by the method of centered moving averages 4 The demand is quarterly, there are 4 quarters in each year. N= Period Demand MA(4) Centered (B/D) MA Ratio A B C D E 1 35 49 0.714285714 2 50 49 1.020408163 3 55 47.75 1.151832461 4 45 46.25 50.25 0.895522388 5 47 49.25 52.375 0.897374702 6 58 51.25 54.875 1.056947608 7 64 53.5 53.625 1.193473193 8 56 56.25 53.625 1.044289044 Period Seasonal Factors 1 2 3 4 Total 0.80583021 1.03867789 1.17265283 0.96990572 3.98706664 Final Seasonal Factors 0.8084 1.0420 1.1765 0.9731 4.0000 (Continued…) 5 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ b. (6 points) Compute the deseasonalized demand series. Using the method of linear regression, determine the slope and intercept of the straight line that best fits the deseasonalized series. xy x Deseasonalized x2 Demand y Sum Average 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 36 4.5 43.29303212 47.98247238 46.75055139 46.24624736 58.13635741 55.65966796 54.40064162 57.5508856 410.0198558 51.25248198 43.29303212 95.96494476 140.2516542 184.9849894 290.6817871 333.9580078 380.8044913 460.4070848 1930.345991 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 204 n n n n xi y i xi y i i 1 i 1 8(1930.3460) 36(410.0199) 2.0299 Slope i 1 2 n 8(204) (36) 2 n 2 n xi xi i 1 i 1 Intercept y slope( x) 51.2525 (2.0299)( 4.5) 42.1178 c. (3 points) Predict the demand for the third quarter of 2003 Deseasonalized demand, y 42.1178 2.0299 x For the third quarter of 2002, x 11. So, the deseasonalized demand, y 42.1178 2.0299 11 64.4470 To get the demand, reseasonalize, y 64.4470 1.1765 75.8191 Question 4: (10 points) The Paris Paint Company is in the process of planning labor force requirements and production levels for the next four quarters. The marketing department has provided production with the following forecasts of demand for Paris Paint over the next year: Quarter Demand Forecast 1 (in thousands of gallons) 600 2 700 3 650 4 200 6 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Assume that there are currently 250 employees with the company. Employees are hired for at least one full quarter. Hiring costs amount to $500 per employee and firing costs are $1,000 per employee. Inventory costs are $0.20 per gallon per quarter. It is estimated that one worker produces 1,750 gallons of paint each quarter. Assume that Paris currently has 300,000 gallons of paint in inventory and would like to end the year with an inventory of at least 100,000 gallons. a. (5 points) Determine the minimum constant workforce plan (i.e., level strategy) for Paris Paint. Assume that stock-outs are not allowed. Quarter Forecast Beg/ End Production (000 Inventory Requirement gallons) (000 (000 gallons) gallons) A 1 2 3 4 B 600 700 650 200 C 300 100 Cumulative Production Requirement (000 gallons) Cumulative units produced per worker (000 gallons) D E F 600-300=300 300 1.75 (given) 700 300+700=1000 1.75+1.75 = 3.5 650 1000+650=1650 3.50+1.75 = 5.25 200+100=300 1650+300=1950 5.25+1.75 = 7 E/F Workers Required = Round up (G) G 171.4 285.7 314.3 278.6 H 172 286 315 279 Since the maximum workers required is 315, the minimum constant workforce plan must use 315 workers. So, the number of workers to hire = 315 – 250 = 65 workers. b. (5 points) Determine the hiring, firing, and inventory holding cost of the plan derived in part a. Demand = Forecast (000 gallons) Beginning Inventory 1 600 300 (given) 315(1.75)=551.25 551.25 + 300.00 – 600 = 251.25 2 700 251.25 551.25 551.25 + 251.25 – 700 = 102.50 3 650 102.50 551.25 551.25 + 102.50 – 650 = 003.75 4 200 003.75 551.25 551.25 + 003.75 – 200 = 355.00 Quarter Production (000 gallons) (000 gallons) Ending Inventory = Production + Beginning Inventory – Demand (000 gallons) Total ending inventory = (251.25+102.50+3.75+355.00) = 712.50 thousand gallons Inventory holding cost = 712,500 0.20 = $142,500 Hiring cost = 65(500) = $32,500 Total cost = 142,500+32,500 = $175,000 7 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 5: (12 points) Suppose that Item A has a production rate of 720 items per year, unit cost of $10.00, a setup cost of $80, and a monthly demand of 30 units. It is estimated that cost of capital is approximately 15 percent per year. Storage cost amounts to 3 percent and breakage to 2 percent of the value of each item. a. (2 points) Compute EPQ of Item A. 2 K 2 K 2 K 28030 12 EPQ= h' 0.15 0.03 0.02 101 30 12 h1 Ic1 720 P P 280360 280360 57,600 240 units 20.5 1 360 0.20 101 720 b. (3 points) What are the uptime, downtime and cycle time of Item A? Q * EPQ 240 Cycle time, T 0.6667 years 12 30 Q * 240 Uptime, T1 0.3333 years P 720 Downtime, T2 T T1 0.6667 0.3333 0.3334 years Item B has a production rate of 1200 items per year, a unit cost of $20.00, an ordering cost of $77.5, and a monthly demand of 25 units. Recall that the cost of capital is approximately 15 percent per year. Storage cost amounts to 3 percent and breakage to 2 percent of the value of each item. c. (3 points) What is the cycle time if both Items A and B are produced in a single facility? T* 2 K j h' j j 2K1 K 2 h'1 1 h' 2 2 280 77.5 360 21 360 Ic 2 1 2 720 P2 2 280 77.5 h1 1 1 1 h2 1 2 P1 P2 2 2157.5 25 12 360 0.20201 25 12 1,200 315 315 315 0.25 0.50 years 360 4 0.75 300 360 900 1,260 d. (4 points) What are the optimal order quantity and uptime of items A and B? Assume both items A and B are produced using the same facility. Item A QA* AT * 30 120.5 360 0.50 180 units Uptime = Q A* / P 180 / 720 0.25 year Item B QB* BT * 25 120.5 300 0.50 150 units Uptime = QA* / P 150 / 1200 0.125 year 8 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 6: (6 points) Green City sells a particular model of lawn mower, with most of the sales being made in the summer months. Green city makes a one-time purchase of the lawn mowers prior to each summer season at a cost of $150 each and sells each lawn mower for $225. The demand is normally distributed with a mean of 1500 and a standard deviation of 100. Find the optimal order quantity if a. (3 points) any lawn mower unsold at the end of summer season are marked down to $100 and sold in a special fall sale. C o Purchase price – salvage value = $150-100=$50 Cu Selling price – Purchase price = $225-150=$75 p Cu 75 0.60 Cu Co 75 50 Find z * such that P z z * 0.60 Or, P z 0 P 0 z z * 0.60 Or, P 0 z z * 0.60 P z 0 0.60 0.5 0.10 Hence, from Table A-1 z * 0.25 (the z -value for which area = 0.10) Q * z * 1,500 0.25 100 1,525 units b. (3 points) any lawn mower unsold at the end of summer season are marked down to $25 and sold in a special fall sale. C o Purchase price – salvage value = $150-25=$125 Cu Selling price – Purchase price = $225-150=$75 p Cu 75 0.375 Cu Co 75 125 Find z * such that P z z * 0.375 Or, P z 0 P 0 z z * 0.375 Or, P 0 z z * P z 0 0.375 0.5 0.375 0.125 Hence, from Table A-1 z * 0.32 (the z -value for which area = 0.125) Q * z * 1,500 0.32 100 1,468 units Question 7: (6 points) The home appliance department of a large department store is planning to use a lot size-reorder point system to control the replenishment of a particular model of FM table radio. The store sells an average of 240 radios each year. The annual demand follows a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 50. The store pays $60 for each radio. The holding cost is 25 percent per year. Fixed costs of replenishment amount to $200. If a customer demands the radio when it is out of stock, the customer will generally go elsewhere. Replenishment lead-time is one month. 9 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ a. (3 points) Find an optimal (Q,R) policy with probability(no stockout)=0.94. Step 1: Q EOQ 2 K h 2 K Ic 2200240 96,000 6,400 80 units 0.2560 15 Step 2: Find z for which area on the left = F z =probability(no stockout) = 0.94 From Table A-1, z 1.555 for area = 0.94-0.50 = 0.44 From Table A-4, z 1.555 for F z 0.94 Step 3: Compute reorder point, R z 2401 / 12 20 y 50 1 / 12 14.43 R z 20 1.555 14.43 42.44 units Hence an optimal policy is Q 80 units, R 42.44 units b. (2 points) Compute the annual holding cost resulting from the (Q,R) policy obtained in part a. Annual holding cost, regular = hQ IcQ 0.25 60 80 15 80 $600 2 2 2 2 Safety stock = R 42.44 2401/ 12 42.44 20 22.44 units Annual holding cost, safety stock = hR 1522.44 $336.60 Annual holding cost = hQ hR = 600 + 336.60 = $936.60 2 c. (1 point) Compute the annual ordering cost resulting from the (Q,R) policy obtained in part a. Annual ordering cost = K 200 240 $600 Q 80 Question 8: (8 points) Consider Question 7 again. Find an optimal (Q,R) policy with fill rate = 0.98. Use the iterative method and show 2 iterations. Show your computation and summarize your results in the table below: h Ic 0.25 60 15, 1 / 12 0.0833, 240 0.0833 20, y 50 0.0833 14.43 Iteration 1 2k 2(200)(240) 80 units h 15 Step 2: n Q(1 ) 80(1 0.98) 1.60 n 1.60 L( z ) 0.1108 14.43 z 0.85 (Table A-4) R z 20 0.85 14.43 32.27 Step 3: 1 F ( z ) 0.1977 (Table A-4) Step 1: Q EOQ (Continued…) 10 Name:_________________________________________________ Summary of results: Fixed cost (K) Holding cost (h) Mean annual demand (lambda) Lead time (tau) in years Lead time demand parameters: mu sigma Type 2 service, fill rate, beta Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 ID:_________________________ 200 Note: K and h 15 are input data 240 input data 0.083333333 input data 20 <--- computed 14.43375673 input data 0.98 input data Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Q= 80 EOQ n= 1.6 Q(1 ) L(z)= 0.1108513 n / Table A1/A4, pp. 835 - 41 z= 0.85 z R= 32.268693 Table A1/A4, pp. 835 - 41 Area on the right=1-F(z) 0.1976625 0.214764 2 Modified Q= n /(1 F ( z )) 2 K / h ( n /(1 F ( z ))) 88.50308 88.66533 n= 1.7700616 1.773307 Q(1 ) L(z)= 0.1226335 0.122858 n / Table A1/A4, pp. 835 41 z= 0.79 0.79 z R= 31.402668 31.40267 2 2 2 2 1.60 2(200)( 240) 1.60 n 2 K n Step 4: Q 88.5014 0.1977 15 1 F( z) h 0.1977 1 F( z) (not near 80, more iterations are necessary) Step 5: n Q(1 ) 88.5014(1 0.98) 1.7700 n 1.7700 L( z ) 0.1226 14.43 z 0.79 (Table A-4) R z 20 0.79 14.43 31.4027 Iteration 2 Step 3: 1 F ( z ) 0.2148 1.7700 2(200)( 240) 1.60 n 2 K n Step 4: Q 88.6635 0.2148 15 1 F ( z) h 0.2148 1 F ( z) (same as before, stop the process after finding R ) Step 5: n Q(1 ) 88.6635(1 0.98) 1.7733 n 1.7733 L( z ) 0.1229 14.43 z 0.79 (Table A-4) R z 20 0.79 14.43 31.4027 Q and R converge. An optimal policy is Q=89, R=31 (rounded to the nearest integer) 11 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 9: (8 points) Each unit of A is composed of two units of B and one unit of C. Items A, B and C have on-hand inventories of 20, 30 and 10 units respectively. Item B has a scheduled receipt of 50 units in period 1, and C has a scheduled receipt of 100 units in Period 1. Lot-for-lot (L4L) is used for Item A. Item B requires a minimum lot size of 50 units. Item C is required to be purchased in multiples of 100. Lead times are two periods for Item A, and one period for each Item B and C. The gross requirements for A are 30 in Period 3, 50 in Period 6, and 90 in Period 9. Find the planned order releases for all items to meet the requirements over the next 10 periods. a. (2 points) Construct a product structure tree. A B(2) C b. (2 points) Consider Item A. Find the planned order releases and on-hand units in period 10 Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Item Gross 30 50 90 Requirements A Scheduled receipts On hand from 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LT=2 prior period Net 10 50 90 requirements Time-phased Net 10 50 90 Q= Requirements L4L Planned order 10 50 90 releases Planned order 10 50 90 delivery (Continued…) 12 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ c. (2 points) Consider Item B. Find the planned order releases and on-hand units in period 10. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Item Gross 20 100 180 Requirements B Scheduled 50 receipts On hand from 30 60 60 60 10 10 10 0 0 0 LT=1 prior period Net 40 170 Requirements Time-phased Net 40 170 Q >= Requirements 50 Planned order 50 170 releases Planned order 50 170 delivery d. (2 points) Consider Item C. Find the planned order releases and on-hand units in period 10. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Item Gross 10 50 90 Requirements C Scheduled 100 receipts On hand from 10 100 100 100 50 50 50 60 60 60 LT= prior period 1 Net 40 requirements Time-phased Net 40 Requirements Q= Planned order 100 100 releases Planned order 100 delivery 13 Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 10: (4 points) A single inventory item is ordered from an outside supplier. The anticipated demand for this item over the next 7 months is 10, 13, 11, 15, 14, 9, 6. Current inventory of this item is 2, and the ending inventory should be 1. Assume a holding cost of $3 per unit per month and a setup cost of $100. Assume a zero lead time. Determine the order policy for this item over the next 7 months. Use the Silver-Meal heuristic. Net requirements: r1 10 2 8, r2 13, r3 11, r4 15, r5 14, r6 9, r7 6 1 7 Months 1 to 1 1 to 2 1 to 3 1 to 4 4 to 4 4 to 5 4 to 6 4 to 7 Q 8 21 32 47 15 29 38 45 I1 I2 I3 13 24 39 11 26 15 14 23 30 9 16 7 I4 I5 I6 I7 Holding Cost 0 39 105 240 0 42 96 159 Ordering Cost 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 69.5 68.33 85 stop 100 71 65.33 64.75 a. (3 points) State your order policy: Month a. b. Lot size to order 32 45 b. (1 point) Using the table below, show the ending inventory that results from your order policy at the end of each month: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gross Requirements 10 13 11 15 14 9 6 Beginning Inventory 2 24 11 0 30 16 7 Net Requirements 8 15 Time-phased Net Requirements 8 15 Planned order Release 32 45 Planned Deliveries 32 45 Ending Inventory 24 11 0 30 16 7 1 Question 11: (8 points) Consider Question 10 again. a (2 points) Suppose that the maximum order size is 12 per month. Does there exist a feasible solution? If there does not exist a feasible solution, what is first month when there will be a shortage? 14 Name:_________________________________________________ Month Production Requirement Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10-2=8 13 11 15 14 9 6+1=7 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 ID:_________________________ Cumulative Production Requirement 8 8+13=21 21+11=32 32+15=47 47+14=61 61+9=70 70+7=77 Cumulative capacity < 12 < 12+12=24 < 24+12=36 < 36+12=48 > 48+12=60 Shortage Since the cumulative capacity is less than the cumulative production requirement in period 5, there is no feasible solution. There will be a shortage in Month 5. (b) (3 points) Suppose that the maximum order size is 13 per month. Use lot-shifting technique to obtain a feasible solution (without using holding and setup cost). Show your final solution in the table given below. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Production Requirement 10-2=8 13 11 15 14 9 6+1=7 Actual Production Production Capacity 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 89 13 11 13 15 13 14 13 9 7 Excess Capacity 54 20 4 6 First, observe that production requirement in Month 4 is 2 units more than the capacity. So, backshift 2 units to Month 3 Again, production requirement in Month 5 is 1 unit more than the capacity. So, back-shift 1 unit to Month 1. Final production schedule is as follows: A feasible solution obtained by lot-shifting technique: Month 1 2 3 4 Actual Production 9 13 13 13 5 13 6 9 7 7 (c ) (3 points) Improve the solution obtained in Part (b) . Assuming a maximum order size of 13 units per month and using the back-shifting technique, find another solution that has less total holding and setup cost than the solution obtained in Part (b) . Show your final solution in the table given below. Back-shift 7 units of Month 7? Check if it’s better to backshift 4 units to Month 6 and 3 units to Month 1 Additional holding cost = 4(1)(3)+3(6)(3) = 66 < 100 = savings in ordering cost Back-shift Improved solution: Month Actual Production 1 12 2 13 3 13 4 13 15 5 13 6 13 7 --