Part 1 Core: Population in Transition
1. Explain population trends and patterns in births (Crude Birth Rate), natural increase and
mortality (Crude Death Rate, infant and child mortality rates), fertility and life expectancy in
contrasting regions of the world.
(A) Fertility
Types of variables
- The factors affecting fertility can be classified into two groups: background variables and
intermediate or proximate variables.
- The former includes cultural, psychological, economic, social, health, and environmental factors,
while the proximate determinants are those factors that have a direct effect on fertility.
- The background factors operate through the proximate determinants to influence fertility; they do not
influence fertility directly.
Proximate / Intermediate Variables
- Bongaarts (1978) developed an analytically simple yet comprehensive quantitative model of the
relationship between the so-called intermediate variables and fertility.
- It can be either biological (such as sterility) or behavioral (such as contraceptive use) in nature.
- The most important finding from the application of Bongaart is that fertility differences among
populations are primarily due to variations in only 4 intermediate variables, namely proportion
married, contraception, induced abortion, and postpartum infecundability.
- A knowledge of which proximate variable is responsible for fertility decline can narrow the search
for social causes.
- The objective of social research is ultimately to understand such social causes that work through
proximate variables to determine fertility.
Proximate Variables Affecting Fertility Rate
Biological
•
•
Marriageable age
Women are most fertile during the period of teens to late twenties
•
Developing countries
o Societies that practice early marriages tend to have higher number of births per woman
o Women in these societies will have ‘longer’ fertile years so they will tend to have more babies
•
Developed countries
o More people in these countries are pushing marriage or pregnancy till much later, even after 30
years old
o Reasons for pushing marriages: career-minded, high standard of living
o So less probability of conceiving after 30 years old
•
Higher records of abortions
o Abortion can reduce the chance of getting pregnant in future so affecting fertility rates
o There are more and more teen and unwanted pregnancies so lead to higher rates of abortion
o More married young couples are going through abortions because of the high cost of living and
high cost of supporting a baby
•
More and more people are using contraception and even sterilization therefore affecting fertility rate
Socio-economic
•
Emancipation of women
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o
o
o
o
Women are allowed to go out of their homes
Women have more choices, more say
More external agencies (women rights agencies) formed to help women
E.g. The National Women Suffrage Association (NWSA)
•
Female Literacy
o Education of women has changed their economic status
o Women has higher societal status now
o With higher economic and societal status, more women are getting career-minded and are
pushing marriages and pregnancies to a later age
•
Level of technology in the country
o Countries (usu. developing) with high infant mortality rates (IMR), people would tend to have
more babies
o To ensure that they have at least one surviving child
o
•
Demographic factor
o Number of women within child-bearing age in a country
o More young women = higher BR = more babies
o
•
Countries (usu. developed) with low IMR, people will have less babies as they do not have to
worry that their baby will die
Vice versa… for countries with less women within the child-bearing age, there will be less
babies
Children seen as economic assets
Either
• As labour force
• Helping hands in family businesses such as farms as farms require many workers/helpers
Or
• Symbol of wealth
• In some societies, children are seen as a symbol of wealth
• Some parents have more children so that someone can take care when they are old
Institutional
• Religion
• Some religious faiths are opposed to the use of contraception therefore fertility rate will be higher as
compared to other countries
• Examples:
o Islam : Pakistan, Iran
o Catholics: Philippines, Rep. of Ireland
•
•
•
Government policies
Government of countries with high BR will use policies to control population growth.
E.g. China’s one-child policy
•
•
Govt. of countries with low BR will use fiscal policies to encourage people to have more babies
E.g. Singapore’s baby bonus
•
Politics – war
o War is a natural control for BR
o However, after the war, there will always be a post-war baby boom
o The period 1946-1949 is the post war baby boom after WWII
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(B) Mortality
 The death rate measures the proportion of a population that dies each year.
 But comparing death rates among populations does not show whether one population is healthier or
lives longer than another.
 The death rate is strongly influenced by the age structure of the population.
 Death rates often are higher in more developed countries such as Sweden than in less developed
countries such as Nicaragua, even though more developed countries tend to have healthier
environments and better medical services. A large proportion of the population of more developed
countries is in the older ages—the ages at which most deaths occur— while a relatively small
proportion of the population of less developed countries is in the older ages.
 The death rate is relatively high during an infant’s vulnerable first year of life, then it declines
throughout childhood and early adolescence before starting an inexorable climb to a towering peak
after age 85.
Mortality and Life Expectancy
 To better gauge the life chances of individuals in a population and to better compare mortality
conditions among countries, we must look at the average life expectancy.
 Both biological and social factors influence how long individuals live, and by extension, the average
life expectancy within a population.

In 2001, the average life expectancy at birth in the United States was 77 years. Japan had the world’s
highest life expectancy— 81 years. The lowest life expectancy estimates for the early 2000s were in
HIV/AIDS-plagued countries in sub-Saharan Africa: 34 years for Mozambique and 37 years for
Botswana and Lesotho.
Life expectancy
 Is a concept many people use but few understand. What does the U.S. life expectancy of 77 years
really mean, and to whom does it apply?
 The term life expectancy usually is used as a shorthand way of expressing “life expectancy at birth.”
 Can we conclude that a child born in the United States in 2001 can expect to live to age 77, on
average? Not really.
 As an infant born that year proceeds through life, mortality conditions will change.
 Individual lives may be cut short by war or a devastating plague of some new disease, or may be
extended through fantastic medical advances.
 Life expectancy at birth in 2001 applies to no real group, not even to real people born that year. Like
the TFR, life expectancy applies to a hypothetical group of people who pass through their imaginary
lives subject to the death rates at each age in 2001.

Age-specific death rates refer to the number of deaths of people within a specific age group divided
by the total number of people in that age group. This can also be expressed as the probability of
dying at a given age. These probabilities are used to construct a life table, or actuarial table, which is
used to calculate life expectancy at birth or at any other age.
Mortality and HIV
HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, is spreading rapidly in many world regions. The disease has already
infected more than 30 million in sub-Saharan Africa, 6 million in South Asia, and 2 million in Latin
America and the Caribbean. HIV/AIDS has caused life expectancy at birth to fall in several sub-Saharan
African countries, reversing the gains in infant and childhood health achieved before the epidemic arose.
The HIV/AIDS epidemic is a grim reminder that the battle against communicable diseases will probably
never be over. Many aspects of modern life—international air travel, importation of fruits and
vegetables, migration, and even changes in climate—favor the spread of communicable diseases.
Mortality and Natural Disasters
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Natural disasters and widespread violence can also produce a spike in the number of deaths, but they
usually have little long-term impact on mortality rates at the national level. Earthquakes, wars, fires,
terrorism, hurricanes, and other disasters claim the most lives in less developed areas, where many
people live in low-quality housing and where the public health and emergency response systems are
limited.
Mortality Model
The Mortality model simulates the number of persons exposed to various health risks and the number of
deaths related to these exposures. The health risks associated with the exposed population are based on
the broad and proximate health determinants of the health transition (Frenk et al., 1993).
The major health determinant is socio-economic status (SES, see e.g. Najman, 1993). The distinction
between high and low socio-economic status is derived from the income status and the fraction of the
total population that is literate. Further health risks include malnutrition, absence of safe drinking water,
occurrence of malaria, habitual smoking and high blood pressure and poor availability of health services.
Health risks are clustered into 12 categories on the basis of the empirically estimated contribution to
mortality and disease levels in societies, as inferred from international statistics.
(C) Population Structure
1) Sex ratio: the proportion of males to females
 The sex ratio is usually expressed as number of males per 1000 females
 E.g. in UK, in 1971, the SR is 947 per 1000 females
 The ratio is for the whole population, and can hide certain facts:
a) the number of male birth exceeds female birth in most countries
b) higher male death rate leading to overall, larger female population
2) Age structure: the size of the population in different age groups
 More detail analyses of population requires breaking the population up into different age groups
 The variation in birth rate, death rates and hence population size can be visualized.
 The combination of the two can be presented on a bar graph or column graph
3) By rearranging the column graphs of the two genders and placing them size by size, we can do a
comparison. This is the Population Pyramid.
4) Population Pyramid (PP)
Definition: A graphical representation of the numbers or proportion of each age cohort of males and
females in a population.
 The age-sex structure of a population is best shown illustrated in an age-sex pyramid.
 The pyramid can illustrate past changes.
 It can also show short-term and long-term changes in population.
 Population pyramids can be used to show the results of migration, the age and sex of migrants,
and the effects of wars and major epidemics.
The shapes of the pyramid
Population Pyramids comes in all shape and sizes, but we can identify three basic types
The normal pyramid
 Wide base and tapered upwards, the normal shape pyramid shows an expanding population.
 The wide base indicates a high birth rate , thus the large number of young children
 The tapering suggests that as the age increases, there is a smaller number in each group. The
slope of the pyramid therefore indicates (not represents) the life expectancy at birth for the
population
 It is a typical of developing countries
The dome
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


The base is only slightly wider then the top, it represents a stationary population
The fairly even distribution of age groups suggests a stable and equal magnitude in birth rate
and death rate
It is typical of the Newly Industrialized Countries (NIEs) and the less advanced developed
countries like Spain and Italy
The inverted bell
 It represents a contracting population
 The narrow base and wider body means there are more in the older age groups then the young
ones
 It represents the countries suffering from population decline, like Japan, Switzerland, Singapore
etc
The Application of Pyramids:
To examine the demographic conditions that affect population
 A population with a large percentage of persons on the 15 - 45 age group will have a high birth
rate
 A population dominated by the above 65 age group is likely to see higher death rate.
To detect changes in the age-sex structure (relating to the Demographic transition model)
 Demographic Transition Model (DTM): It is showing the changes in the characteristics of a
population, i.e. changes in BR, DR and NI
 The analysis of the individual stages of the DTM can be done using the Population Pyramid.
o PP1 represents the pre-industrial period and the subsequent growth
o PP2 represents stage 4, with low Birth and Death rate.
o PP3 represents stage 5, indicating population decline.
Identify specific periods in the population history.
 Static: The bulge in the 15 - 29 group represented the post - WW II baby boom etc.
 Dynamic: We can also trace the experience of a particular group born a specific year by having
records of population structure over their life time.
o E.g. the group born in British born in 1886-1891
Predict future population trend
 PPs also provide clues to future demographic conditions
o E.g. Because of the large percentage of people stepping into the fertile stage, birth rate is
expected to increase in the next 10 years or so - the hidden momentum of growth
Use to represent Life expectancy:
 Life expectancy: The average age number of years which a person can expect to live
 It is normally expressed:
o As years from birth (chart )
o Separate figures are also given for male and female
o The number of years of life expected by each surviving person at each age group
Examples of population pyramids and basic interpretation
Kenya 1997


5
Pyramid has a concave shave, showing that
the BR is very high
Over half of the inhabitants are under 15
years old
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


There is a rapid fall upwards in each age group showing a high DR
There is a low LE
There is significant IMF as shown from the clear shrinkage of the 5-10 bar from the 0-4 one
Argentina 1997


BR is declining here
As DR is lowered as well, more people are
able to live to an older age
LE is longer but IMR is still significant

Canada 1997



6
Canada has a smaller proportion of its
population in the pre-productive age
groups.
And a larger proportion in the postproductive groups
The pyramids shows low BR, IMR, DR
and a long LE
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(D) The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)





The DTM was developed by Notestein in 1945, based on demographic studies of North America
and Western Europe.
The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time, or
transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over time.
The DTM suggests that a population's mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social
and economic development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through four
demographic transition stages.
By "model" we mean that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these
countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not
accurately describe all individual cases. Whether or not it applies to less developed societies
today remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, the model has been developed to consider the demographic changes that many
ELDCs are experiencing as well
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2. Explain population momentum and its impact on population projections.
In the pursuit of our daily life, be it at the individual level or as a society, we are constantly
guided by expectations about the future. Typically, these expectations are based on the
assumption that the future is going to be more or less the same as what we currently experience
or that there are clearly predictable regularities such as day and night and the change of seasons.
In some instances, however, we know with near certainty that things will change fundamentally.
In the field of demography, it is virtually certain that Singapore will get older and the proportion
of the population above age 60 will increase significantly and the proportion below age 20 will
shrink. This change that we expect over the coming decades is already embedded in the current
age structure of the population. Only extremely unlikely events such as a new disease killing
large proportions of the elderly population while leaving the younger unaffected could change
this aging trend in the near to mid-term future. This nearly certain population aging will bring
fundamental changes to the functioning of our society and will have significant impacts on
individual life course planning, family networks, pension systems and macro-economic
development alike. In terms of the CPF system younger people today cannot count on the same
contributions /benefits ratio as they observe with people retiring today.
Even in case of this highly predictable trend towards population aging the exact extent of aging
is rather uncertain, especially in the longer run. Will the share of the population over age 60
increase from currently 20 percent to 29 percent or 43 percent by 2050. This is a very significant
difference and the answer will largely depend on the still uncertain degree of future increases in
life expectancy but also on the even more uncertain future trends in fertility and migration.
There is uncertainty in all three components of demographic change (fertility, mortality and
migration). How should a forecaster deal with this uncertainty in a statistically consistent
manner that is both informative to the users and feasible for the producing agencies?
WHY do countries do population forecasting?
What is ‘population forecasting’ / ‘population projection’?
Projecting a Cohort of U.S.
Women Ages 15-19 in 2000 to
2005: The Cohort-Component
Model
Age-sex pyramids and forecasting
Age-sex pyramids display the percentage or actual amount of a population broken down by
gender and age. The five-year age increments on the y-axis allow the pyramid to vividly reflect
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long term trends in the birth and death rates but also reflect shorter term baby-booms, wars, and
epidemics.
There are three key types of population pyramids:
This pyramid of the Philippines shows a
triangle-shaped pyramid and reflects a
high growth rate of about 2.1 percent
annually.
Rapid Growth
In the United States, the population is
growing at a rate of about 1.7 percent
annually. This growth rate is reflected in
the more square-like structure of the
pyramid. Note the lump in the pyramid
between the ages of about 35 to 50. This
large segment of the population is the
post-World War II "baby boom." As this
population ages and climbs up the
pyramid, there will be a much greater
demand for medical and other geriatric
services.
Slow Growth
Germany is experiencing a period of
negative growth (-0.1%). As negative
growth in a country continues, the
population is reduced. A population can
shrink due to a low birth rate and a stable
death rate. Increased emigration may also
be a contributor to a declining population.
Negative Growth
Who needs forecasted population data?
Category
Schools
"I am from the Ministry of Education. My job
is to determine if we need to build a new
school in the next 5 or 10 years. What type of
information will I need to make this
decision?"
Facilities
Data to Forecast
[Number of school age
children predicted in the next
5 to 10 years]
"I am a city planner from the Ministry of
[Obtain projections of
National development. One of my
population growth]
responsibilities is to make sure we have
enough roadways, water, sewers, and utilities.
How will I know whether too many people
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will strain these resources in the coming
years?"
Health Care
"I work for a company that establishes health [Evaluate projections of places
care facilities. I must find out where a new
with a greater number of older
centre will be needed the most in the next 5 to people]
10 years."
Environment
"I am an environmentalist working to make
Obtain projections of
sure the habitat for wildlife in our area is not population growth and
destroyed. If more people move here, the
migration
forest will have to be cut down so new homes
can be built. How do I know if this will be a
problem in 5 to 10 years?"
Demographic forecasts have many other uses. A few users, such as the manufacturers of infant
formula, are interested in the numbers of births by quarter in the coming year. Some users, such
as planners for CPF (Social Security) and Medicare, have much longer horizon of 75 years, and
are particularly interested in the age distributions of workers and the elderly. Social Security
planners also need information on the distribution of the future population by marital status,
since benefit payments differ by marital status and by living arrangements.
How can population forecasting be done?
The number of people residing in an area can be changed in only three ways: (1) By births, (2)
by deaths, and (3) by movement in or out, the net result of which is called net migration,
whether inward or outward.
The factors and conditions that cause the people to have children, to die, and to move from one
place to another are, of course, almost infinite in their variety. A comparative few, however,
usually have greater influence than the others in changing the number of residents in an area.
For example, establishment of a large new industry generally has greater and more direct effects
on the size of a city's population than improvement of its parks and playgrounds. Analysis of the
causes, nature, and rates of past changes in the area's population, together with a careful
appraisal of the probable effects of the more influential factors, can provide valuable clues to the
size of the future population.
Population forecasting is essentially a matter of judgment. Judgment is required in selecting the
kind of forecast to present, in determining the procedures for making it, and in appraising effects
of the factors that induce population changes. Obviously, this should be an informed judgment,
backed up by the most complete and thorough analysis of the particular problem that the
forecaster is able to make.
Basic Assumptions Implicit in All Forecasts
Every population projection, except a pure guess, is based on some assumptions.
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By definition, a population projection assumes that the factors affecting births, deaths, and
migration will interact in a manner that will produce the projected figure. In practice, the
analysis should set forth the specific assumptions on which the forecasts for the particular area
are based.
In addition to such special assumptions, several basic assumptions are implicit. It is usually
assumed that during the period of the forecast:



The form of government and the Political, economic, and social organization and
institutions of the country will remain substantially unchanged.
No all-out war, internal revolution, nationwide devastation, epidemic, or other disaster
will occur.
No large-scale epidemic, destruction by military action, fire, earthquake, or other disaster
will occur in the area or within the geographical or economic region to which the area is
closely related.
Any of these events might have completely unpredictable effects on the population. These basic
assumptions, therefore, are either explicitly stated or are implied in nearly every population
projection.
Dealing with Uncertainty
The most common means of assessing and communicating uncertainty, in demographic
forecasting as in other kinds of forecasting, is to formulate high and low trajectories for the key
inputs to the forecast, to combine these into collections of input trajectories called “scenarios”,
and then to prepare and present the results of at least two such scenarios in addition to the
preferred forecast.
Often these alternate scenarios are identified as “high” and “low” in some sense. The scenario
approach does not attach any probability coverage to the forecast bands, and for good reason.
Any probabilistic interpretation of the scenarios would founder immediately on inconsistencies.
The current practice of providing high and low variants to communicate uncertainty around the
medium projection suffer from several drawbacks. The most important are:



Variants only address fertility uncertainty, ignoring mortality and migration uncertainty;
The approach is unspecific about the probability range covered by the high and low variants;
Typically do not allow for temporal fluctuations such as baby booms and busts that can
produce bulges in age structure.
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3. Examine the impacts of youthful and ageing populations.
Developed
Countries
Examples:
Japan, United
Kingdom, and
Germany,
Singapore
Ageing population
A population structure with a high percentage of old people (age above 55)
Low birth rate and higher life expectancy
Consequences:
a) Greater expenditure on medical and health services
b) Drain of resources for social welfare aid and pension
c) Increase in dependency ratio: the percentage of economically non- active
population divided by the percentage of economically active population
Shrinking work force; especially of smaller countries
a) Shortage of labour, especially for manual jobs and defence force
b) Shrinking talent pool: restricted opportunities for innovations
c) High wages, pushing up cost of production, discourages foreign investment
Urbanisation: increase in urban population
a) Pressure on urban facilities
b) Pollution
c) Congestion esp. traffic congestion
d) Urban sprawl engulfing surrounding agriculture land, affecting food
production.
Rural depopulation:
The gradual decline of population in a rural area occasioned by emigration or
when natural decrease is not balance by immigration
a) Rapid rate of rural - urban migration lead to fall in rural population -- reason
for RUM?
b) In developed countries, often not permanent migration but labour migration
c) Land and property abandoned
d) services lost because of fall in demand, forcing rural people to travel further
e) Fall in agriculture output because of shortage of farm hands
g) Regional Inequality (in terms of income and development)
Developing
Countries
Young population
a) High expenditure on social services especially education
b) High child dependency ratio
c) High fertility: the hidden potential for population growth
d) Child labour and exploitation
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Unemployment :
Economic development insufficient to absorb the large population
a) Large urban unemployed involve in illegal activities
b) Rural unemployment leads to RUM, aggravating the problem
c) Political and social unrest
Rapid rate of urbanisation
a) Pressure on social services like education and medical
b) Congestion and housing shortage
Under utilization of agricultural resources
a ) Large population lead to labour intensive methods, often less productive
than capital intensive methods
b) Underemployment or agriculture involution
c) Land fragmentation
d) Shortage of financial resources because of competition for resources with
modern sector
Slow economic growth
a) Large pool of unskilled / semi skilled cheap labour involve in low returns
labour intensive jobs
b) Weak domestic market restricts economic development
c) Vicious cycle : large population > slow economic growth > slow rate of
modernisation > large population
6. Poor nutrition in diet and shortage of food
Medically, there are two kinds of hunger which relate to quantity and quality
of the food supply.
a) In most areas where there is sufficient in staple food supply, there is a
general deficiency in calcium, phosphate, iron and iodine in the diet e.g. In
Monsoon Asia, India, Latin America
b) A few areas suffers from actual famine and sever malnutrition e.g. Sub
Sahel (Ethiopia, Sudan etc.)
A situation when food supply falls short of increase in Population: The
Malthusian Crisis?
c) Epidemic of diseases and sickness associated with diet deficiency e.g.
anaemia, beriberi, scurvy deform growth, still born etc.
Low level of Literacy
a) At global level, illiteracy rate has fallen to 50 % from 60 % in the 1960s
b) Because of rapid population growth, actual number of adult illiterates has
risen by 70 million between 1960 and 1985, to current level of 900 million
c) Illiteracy rates e.g. Africa: 73.7%
Arab states: 73.0%
Asia: 46.8%
Latin America: 23.6%
Compared to America (1%) and Europe (2.5%)
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4. Evaluate examples of a pro-natalist policy and an anti-natalist policy.
Definition: Policies explicitly adopted by the government for their presumed demographic
consequences
General objective: to achieve primary goals like the enhancement of national security and social
and economic welfare.
Influencing Birth Rate
Also know as fertility policies, it comes in two forms:
• Direct vs Indirect intervention
• Direct intervention – in fertility (medical technology)
• Indirect intervention – campaigns & social reforms (that aim to change the people’s mindset
and attitude
Policy to Increase Fertility: Pro-Natalist
Policy to Reduce Fertility: Anti-Natalist

Abortion
o availability of facilities
o legal status

Contraceptives
o availability, information
o condoms, pills

Sterilization
o Volunteering or compulsory
Family Planning
o Persuasion, mass media
o Family Planning workers' visits
Direct Intervention
Indirect Intervention

Objective is to create a moral climate for the policies
 Reforms
a) Legislation - fiscal policies (tax and revenues): to determine the
cost of child bearing
b) Social reforms - role of women, maternity benefits, childcare
services etc.: to help women to cope with career and family as well
as greater financial independence
c) Social development - education, health services etc.: assume
development will initially increase, but eventually will reduce birth
rate
Current Trends
(a) Old programs wearer highly centralized, and target at the literate urban population
 Cost effective but fail to hit at the most fertile group
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
New policies look into the rural poor, with workers moving into the field to teach family
planning
(b) Earlier program place emphasis on incentives and penalties
Today people realize the importance of restructuring the social institutions e.g. land tenure,
inheritance law etc.
(c) Earlier policies did no address income inequality
 New attention on effective land reforms and income redistribution rather than handling out
condoms
 High degree of success in using fiscal policies to Control population e.g. Singapore
Case Study- Pro-Natalist - Singapore
The Singapore Family Planning Program: Brief History
 One of the first Asian countries to have adopted a vigorous population programme as
part of its socio-economic development strategy.
 In 1966, established the Singapore Family Planning and Population Board (SFPPB) to
offer family planning services and to disseminate the small family norm – Two is
enough
 Population was growing at about 2 per cent per year and the total fertility rate (TFR)
stood at 4.7.
 Rapid economic growth between 1975 to 1986.
 Socio-economic development acted as one of the predisposing factors for the adoption of
family planning
 March 1987, government announced its “New Population Policy” in which officially
ended its anti natalist population programme.
The Policy
On 1 March 1987, the government announced the “Have three, or more if you can afford it”
policy to replace the “Stop at two” policy in effect since 1972. As before, a package of
incentives was introduced.


Personal Income Tax
o Third child relief increased on par with first two children
o Enhanced child relief
o Special tax rebate for couples who produce their third child
o Delivery and hospital expenses subsidy
Unpaid childcare leave.
o Up to 4 years unpaid leave to look after their children (civil service)
Childcare subsidy.
Part-time work in the public sector.
Full pay unrecorded leave to attend to their sick children



.
The Aftermath
Replacement fertility was attained in 1975, some 10 years after the start of ant-natalist policy.
Since then, however, the level of fertility continued to fall steadily despite policy reversal- TFR
reached a historic low of 1.1 in 2010
(a) In an affluent society, financial incentives may not matter much in such decisions
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
Examples: almost all western European countries fertility has not responded to generous
family allowances and financial incentives.
(b) Fundamental structural forces would continue to hold down fertility and counter the effects
of any pro-natalist measures.
 In terms of educational attainment and career advancement, provides women with a viable
option to child-bearing.
 Because of the pressing labour shortage, the Government has been advocating greater
participation of women in the labour force.
 In Singapore, the labour force participation rate of married women within the reproductive
ages has been increasing steadily. In 1970, the rate was 15.8 per cent. This has increased by
more than three times to 52 per cent in 1986.
 Difficulties in coping with the domestic and external demands
Measures such as the generous leave provisions and the subsidy of child-care centre fees
may make the combination of roles easier, but more such incentives may be required in the
future.
 Children are valued for their psychological benefits to their parents rather than for their
economic contributions to the family.
 The “quantity” is not as important as the “quality” of children; the parents’ need for
procreation could be easily satisfied with one or two children.
Case Study- Anti-Natalist policy - China
The Chinese Family Planning Program: Brief History
 Recognition of population “problem” by late 1950’s but no real action
 By early 70’s beginning of building of huge infrastructure for services and
publicity/education.
 TFR drop in 70’s from about 6 to under 3 (2.4)
 Population momentum and age structure continuing to feed growth
 Deng Xiaoping era began 1976 with population control as key development goal
 1 Child Policy introduced in 1979-80: regulations, fines, infrastructure beefed up,
population targets introduced
 Policy relaxed somewhat in mid 80’s: 2 in rural areas if 1st a girl, spacing etc. and settled
into an urban “1 child” and rural “1.5” child policy and national minorities “2-3 child”.
 By early 2000 “1 Child” becoming the policy for an urban minority
5.2 The Policy
The one child policy, although not formally written into law consists of three main points.
 Advocating delayed marriage and delayed child bearing
 Advocating fewer and healthier births
 Advocating one child per couple
5.3 However, the one-child policy does not mean that all families have only one child.
 Ethnic minorities are formally excluded from the policy, although some have reported
being forced to comply.
 If both parents are only children, they are allowed to have more than one child provided
the children are spaced more than four years apart. As more and more marriages involve
only children, this exception could be troubling to Chinese officials.
 Families who have children with mental or physical disabilities are sometimes allowed
to have a second child.
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Policy incentives
 Salary bonus (urban)
 Bigger land allocation (rural)
 Extended maternity leave
 Paid medical and hospital expenses
 Priority access to housing, employment
and schooling for the child
5.5 Disobeying the policy
 Withdrawal of family allowance and
medical benefits
 Fines (even against everyone in the
village or town)
 Demotion or discharge from a
government job
Obstacles to the One Child Policy in Rural China (70% of population)
 Patrilineal society: son preference
 No rural pension system so sons support parents in old age
 Girls marry out and dowry
 Land tenure to male heirs
Family Planning Program characterized by:




Provincial birth regulations, birth targets at each level, and fines for excess births
Long-term method promotion (IUD and sterilization); pressure to abort “out of plan”
births
Highly organized service and propaganda infrastructure with separated (from health)
family planning service system set up
Top down implementation and official promotion tied to success in implementing family
planning (“one veto” system).
Results: health and fertility impacts



Total population now 1.26 billion (would have been 1.6 billion without 1 Child Policy)
Population growth controlled (26% in 1970 to 8.8 % in 2000)
Total Fertility Rate reduced (1970: 5.81 to 2000: <2)
1970
1977
1981
2000




Total Fertility:
5.8
2.8
2.1
1.8
Decrease in infant mortality and maternal mortality (IMR from 50/1000 in 1990 to 33 in
1998; MMR from 0.95 per 1000 to 0.56 in 1998)
Increased life expectancy for both sexes due to IMR declines (about 70 years old)
Population growth (13 million/year) is due to demographic momentum
Population stabilization predicted by 2050 at 1.6 billion (about 400 million more
persons) (US is about 300 million)
Other claims:
 Contribution to economic growth and poverty reduction
 Increased education and labour force participation for women
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
Rural women’s empowerment and autonomy by helping rural women resist family
pressure for repeated childbearing
The Aftermath
(a) Growing Chinese Government Concerns about the 1 Child Policy
 Targets have led to overzealous implementation by some officials and rights abuses
 Strong opposition by rural population to methods of the policy: one of major complaints
about local governance
 Pressure to achieve targets has led to false reporting
(b) Gender impacts: The Girl Child
 Sex Ratio: 117 boys to 100 girls (Census 2000) (Liaoning 306 to 100 for second births
1992-97)
 Sex selective abortion widely used
 Female infant abandonment
 Declining school enrolment for girls in poor rural areas because of school fees
 Girl child survival: 21/1000 excess deaths in 0-4 ages for higher parities: delay in health
seeking and seeking delivery care
 Major ‘Human Right’ issue has affected China’s relationship with the industrial west.
(c) Demographic Impacts
 Skewed ratio of workers to elderly: 9% of Population over 60 in 2000; by 2030 will be
22%: and 10% of GDP on Pensions
 Generation of only children (little emperors) and one couple with care of four parents:
Obesity and overweight of 10% of urban only children
 Below replacement level fertility in cities (especially Shanghai)
Reform
Re-thinking and beginnings of reform of the Family Planning Program
(a) Pressure from within for policy change
 Increasing individual freedom and sense of individual rights
 The market economy: consumers and consumer rights and consumer choice
 Emerging legal system and use of legal means to exercise rights
 Separation of health and family planning in poor areas.
 Government desire to regulate coercive practices and increase accountability of local
government
 New generation of more professional leaders national/province
(b) Pressure from outside for policy change
 Growing interest in internationalism and compliance with UN agreements: China and her
UN role: seat on Security Council
 Human rights emphases in international treaties and US foreign policy
 Influence of UN Population and Women’s Conference messages (UN role) about
reproductive rights, informed choice and quality of care
(c) The Reforms
 Pilot Project begun in 1995
 Informed choice of contraceptives, counselling, normative targets at county not township
 Support of the local government and use their own funds.
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Part 1 Core: Population in Transition


New Population Law (September 2002) replacing provincial regulations, enshrining
informed choice, changing collection procedures on “social compensation fees” and
stipulating criminal prosecution of cadres who use coercion to implement family
planning program
Softening of urban policy eliminating approval for first birth
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Part 1 Core: Population in Transition
5. Discuss the causes of migrations, both forced and voluntary.
6. Evaluate internal (national) and international migrations in terms of their geographic (socio-economic,
political and environmental) impacts at their origins and destinations.
Types of migration
Internal Migration:
Movement of people within
the national boundaries
Intra -regional: associated with changed residence.
Intra - urban movement: within an urban centre
Inter- urban movement: from one urban centre to another
Sub urbanization: from urban to suburban, the opposite will be re urbanisation.
Inter- regional movement: rural - urban or urban - rural migration
International Migration;
movement of people across
national boundaries
Permanent migration: often involve changing or addition of citizenship
Circulatory: Migrants intends to return home once task is completed,
Indian Migrants to Singapore, managers sent by the company to the New
York HQ
Factors leading to migration
Lee's law of Migration
Four groups of factors underlie decision to migrate:
 Factors linked to the destination of the migrant
 Factors associated with area of origin of the migrants
 Intervening obstacles between origin and destination
 Personal factors
Ravenstein's Law of Migration
The law was developed on the basis of migration in GB between 1871 and 1881. Ravenstein devised 11
laws (only 4 covered here)
 migration proceeds step by step; series of short movement which eventually covering a long distance
 each current of migration produces a compensating counter - current
 urbanites have lower propensity to migrate
 migration is a greater factor for urban growth then natural increase
The Push and Pull Mechanism
Jobs and income / economic reasons
Main reason people migrate, i.e. to search for a more prosperous and comfortable life.
Social reasons
 Desire for better education and personal development
 To join a family member or relative who is already in the destination area.
 Attracted by better amenities in destination
 Marriage: woman moves to the home of the man.
Cost of Migration
Cost of migration has three components:
 Transportation cost: ticket to the destination, custom duties, and legal fees
 Cost of living: accommodation, daily expenses in a more costly environment.
 Psychological cost: been away from family members, loved ones and familiar people and places,
generating stress
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Part 1 Core: Population in Transition
Information flow
The availability of information depends on
 Distance: information decay
 Contact:
o return migrants will bring information to the hometown
o businessmen from potential destination visiting the land of origin
 Education: the better educated will be more able to absorb more and accurate information
 Mass media: the invasions of television into rural areas give rural folks a pictorial presentation of a
more attractive lifestyle.
Propensity to migrate
 The desire of an individual to migrate may be in the blood.
 Age, sex, socio-economic backgrounds are other possible factors that may affect person's decision to
migrate: the most likely migrant is a young man in his twenties who finds his SES a disadvantage at
home
The effects of migration
Migration has many important impacts, both for the area of origin and the area of destination, and both
beneficial and problematic.
Source Area
1. Reduction in numbers
Most obvious effect is the reduction in the size of the population. In most cases,
population growth rate actually falls because migrants are often the most fertile
young adults.
2. Changes in age and sex structure
Predominantly young adults, resulting in an unusually high proportion of older
people in the area of origin. In some cases, migrants are predominantly of one
sex, leading to an unbalance in the sex ratio. The changes in the population
composition will also affect birth rate, leading to slower rate of population
growth.
3. Loss of rural labour
Absence of large number of able bodied men and women may affect production
in the area of origin, especially if large number of labour are required in
agriculture planting and harvesting seasons.
4. Reduce unemployment
In a situation when an area is unable to generate employment for its people,
migration will relieve much of the pressure. E.g. In rural Philippines and
Thailand.
5. Inflow of income
Many migrants remit money to relatives back at home. The money is very needed
in many resource stripped rural areas in the ELDCs. The money will enable the
relatives back home to improve their standard of living.
6. Correcting balance of payment.
Some ELDCs relied on remittance to correct any adverse balance of payment. In
Grenada, remittance pays for 20 % of the nations' imports.
Receiving area
1. Increase in the rate of growth
The influx of population leads to a higher rate of population growth. However it
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Part 1 Core: Population in Transition
is unclear whether migrants will be more or less fertile the incumbent population.
2. Alters the age and sex structure
In areas that attract migrants, there is often an usually high proportion of young
adults, and often, men out numbers the women.. in Calcutta, 2/3 of the population
are males. Such changes have social consequences like increase incidence of
prostitution.
3. A Plural Society
Migration brings together people of different race, language and religion. In some
cases, migrants can integrate successfully into the community, but there are also
many incidences of social problems originating from a plural society. In many
cities in the EMDCs, migrant communities from Indo-China or China remain
distinct communities; bring problems like racism, gangs and crimes to the
society.
The individual
Most migrants will benefit from their move. International migrants are likely to
have greater benefits, but also greater culture changes and disruption to family
life
1. Social Adaptation
Migrants cluster in neighbourhoods with others from the same area of origin.
Such neighbourhoods act a transitional zone between the old and the new
environment.
Neighbourhood provide information about jobs, urban lifestyle and rules and
regulations. The people also provide moral and financial support to the new
migrants.
The adaptation process may be more difficult for international migrants since the
cultural and social gap will be wider
2. Economic adoption
Be it skilled or unskilled, migrants have to adapt to a new working environment
or economic life.
The unskilled migrants usually work in the same job as their immediate
connections.
Jobs are easily found because they will accept poorly paid and physically
demanding jobs. Thus life can be very hard for migrants.
E.g. The Thai and Indonesian construction workers are paid about $650 a month,
while their Singaporean counterpart is paid about $1300.
Typical migrant jobs include street vendors, construction, crafts, and for women
mainly domestic services.
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