IB - Topics in 20th Century History The New Cold War 1953-60 Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed those who are cold and are not clothed. …. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. - President Dwight David Eisenhower -1- ? Big Ideas Regarding the The New Cold War: Domestic economic issues dramatically effect how both the Soviet Union and the United States wage the Cold War. The Transition in leadership both in The United States and the Soviet Union in 1953 changed the nature of the Cold War in both countries. Germany is an example of how temporary solutions could become permanent because of Cold War tensions. The emergence of thermonuclear weapons and the means to deliver them change the nature of the Cold War. Third World leaders discovered that they could use could war tensions to advance their own situation. -2- IB Topics in 20th Century History The New Cold War 1953-1960 By the time Truman left office and Stalin died, early in 1953, the basic patterns of the Cold War were firmly established. Neither the United States nor the Soviet Union would accept the other's vision of a postwar world, even as neither would risk war - at least not intentionally - to achieve their own. Both sought allies but did not always control them; both built nuclear weapons but found it difficult to know what to do with them. Neither proved capable of separating foreign policy from domestic influences, but those influences differed enormously, producing correspondingly dissimilar behavior. Certain that history was on their side, the first generation of Cold War statesman proceeded from strikingly divergent views of history itself and where it was taking them. One common destination, they would have been surprised to learn, was to be three and a half additional decades of confrontation. The issue over which Soviet-American conflict had arisen at the end of World War II were still unresolved, for the most part, in the mid-1980s: indeed their very irresolution had become, by then, so familiar a feature of international life as to seem to some observers reassuringly normal. Cold War history is, at least in part, the story of how what was thought to be unendurable became endurable; how order and stability, if rarely justice, evolved from bitter sustained rivalry. 1 1) The Cost of the Cold War a) The Economic cost to the United States Pres. Eisenhower & Sec. of State Dulles Another problem was the unproductive nature of military expenditures in peacetime. The roots of communism, Dulles liked to argue, were not material in nature: “there are passions that cannot be … suppressed by foreign guns.” Moreover, such spending diverted valuable resources from domestic priorities, as Eisenhower pointed out with unusual eloquence in April 1953: Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed those who are cold and are not clothed. …. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people. … But the most important reason for perceiving means as limited was the belief that unrestrained spending could alter the very nature of American society, either through the debilitating effects of inflation or through regimentation in the form of economic controls. … It was based on the assumption that economic stability and military strength were inseparable, that if “these two are allowed to proceed in disregard for the other, you then create a situation either of doubtful military strength, or of such precarious economic strength that your military position is in constant jeopardy.”… Dulles put it more bluntly “If economic stability goes down the drain, every thing goes down the drain.” 2 b) The Economic cost to the Soviet Union The “theoretical” basis of Khrushchev’s departure from Stalin’s legacy in 1955-1956 was his rejection of the “inevitability of global war” and of the violent revolutionary transition of the world from capitalist to Socialist order. He adopted a broad interpretation of Lenin’s doctrine of “peaceful coexistence” between the opposite social systems capitalism and socialism. These innovations, as always with Khrushchev, were linked to his personal experience with the awesome power of thermonuclear weapons and to his realization of the impossibility of war between the nuclear superpowers. The innovations marked a fundamental shift from the thinking of Stalin and Molotov, who saw the Cold War as a prelude to another world war among great 1 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Oxford University Press, 1997. Page 113 John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Oxford University Press, 1982. Page133-134 2 -3- powers, to a view of the Cold War as a transitory period between the era of imperialist wars and an era of peaceful economic competition between the two social systems. The future, in Khrushchev’s opinion, would be cold peace perhaps, but hardly Cold War.3 c) Domestic Implications of the Cold War i) The Societal Implication of preparing for Nuclear War As terrible as atomic warfare would undoubtedly be, a prolonged period of preparation for it might be almost as bad in the March 1947 issue of the journal Air Affairs, author Lewis Mumford sketched out a series of scenarios intended to illuminate the “social effects of atomic war.” In the first three war breaks out after increasing periods of time have elapsed and the number o atomic weapons (and the number of countries possessing them) has grown. The results are predictably grim, culminating in the third case in fatalities and genetic and environmental damage sufficient to annihilate the human race. In Mumford’s forth scenario, “atomic war does not break out at all,” but it remains “for at least a century … a growing threat.” Various trends are now “carried to their logical conclusions.” Populations are forceably scattered or driven underground. “Taxes continue to rise to a point that nullifies financial success.” Eventually, “all the earlier advocates of free enterprise become eager for state ownership and flock into government, where power and privilege are now concentrated.” Vast sectors of the economy are nationalized and “the Constitution of every country is altered, where necessary, so as to give complete control to the military caste.” All forms of expression are brought under “centralized control.” Research, development, and education at all levels are geared to meeting the needs of “atomic warfare and its accessory arts.” Perpetual fear of annihilation leads to “purposeless sexual promiscuity … narcotic indulgence,” and outbreaks of paranoia, claustrophobia, and sadistic violence. While “not a single life has been lost in atomic warfare,” by the scenario’s end, civilization has, nevertheless, been “fatally destroyed.”4 ii) The “Garrison State” … Over time, Lasswell feared, feared, there would be a general, evolutionary movement “towards a world of ‘garrison states’” In these strange and terrible new political organisms, authority would be “dictatorial, governmentalized, centralized, integrated.” With the state under constant threat, all power would flow to the “specialists on violence,” the soldiers, the security policeman, and their civilian assistants. The principal preoccupations of the ruling elite would be maintaining morale over domestic order (through the use of terror, propaganda, and mindaltering drugs) and managing the economy so as to generate the maximum military capabilities.5 iii) America’s answer for to the fear of the Garrison State The power-creating mechanism put in place during the first fifteen years of Aaron L. Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and its Cold War Grand Strategy. Page 70 the Cold War can best be understood as the product of a collision between these two sets of conflicting forces. It is impossible to explain the mechanism of power creation, the military strategy that they were intended to support, or, more generally, the impact of the Cold War on American society and the American economy without reference to the persistent presence of domestic forces tending to oppose expansions in state power. Domestic constraints appear also to have contributed to the Cold War’s eventual outcome. By preventing some of the worst, most stifling excesses of statism, these countervailing tendencies made it easier for the United States to preserve its economic vitality and technological dynamism, to maintain domestic political support for a protracted strategic competition and to stay the course in that competition better than its supremely statist rival. 6 Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev. Harvard University Press, 1996. Page 184185 4 Aaron L. Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and its Cold War Grand Strategy. Princeton University Press. Pages 55-56 5 Aaron L. Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and its Cold War Grand Strategy. Page 57 6 Aaron L. Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and its Cold War Grand Strategy. Page 4 3 -4- 2) The New Cold War – Eisenhower a) The Election of Eisenhower and the “New Look” i) The Election of 1952 (1) Political Considerations The general’s reasons for allowing his name to be placed before the 1952 Republican national convention had more to do with his determination to keep the nomination out of the hands of Robert A. Taft, whom Eisenhower regarded as an isolationist; his concern over Truman’s domestic programs, which he thought were leading to socialism; and his belief that survival of the two-party system required an end to twenty years of Democratic rule. 7 (2) Economic Consideration ii) The Emergence of the "New Look" (1) The Solarium Task Force (16 July 1953) (a) Deterrence (b) Containment (c) Liberation (2) Dulles and "Massive Retaliation" (January 12, 1954) (a) The Economics of War (b) New Weapons (c) Propaganda (3) NSC 162/2 (12 January 1954) (a) How to Use Nuclear Weapons (b) The Strategy of the New Look (i) Massive Retaliation (ii) Alliances (iii) Psychological Warfare (iv) Covert Action Robert A. Taft … Then, too, the new administration’s emphasis on making containment work more efficiently at less cost tended to place a premium on covert action activities which were, after all, relatively inexpensive. Finally, Eisenhower chose as his new CIA director Allen W. Dulles, the Secretary of State’s brother, thereby virtually guaranteeing a closer coordination of intelligence operations with national strategy than had occurred heretofore. … … Some indication of where and how these activities were carried on have also surfaced: it is known, for example, that during this period the CIA organized the overthrow of two foreign governments (Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954), attempted unsuccessfully to overthrow two others (Indonesia in 1958, Cuba in 1960-61), infiltrated refugees into Eastern Europe to try to provoke disorders there, conducted guerilla and paramilitary operation against Communist China and North Vietnam from Burma and Laos, organized aerial reconnaissance missions over the Soviet Union and Communist China, and at least considered assassination plots against several foreign leaders (Chou En-lai, Patrice Lumumba, Fidel Castro, and Rafael Trujillo). The agency also engaged in certain covert domestic activities, including mail and telecommunications surveillance, the infiltration of student, academic, journalistic, and cultural organizations, and finical subsidies to publishers and foundations.8 (v) Implications … What is clear, though, is that the administration gave the CIA an extraordinarily broad mandate, that it was willing to lie if necessary to maintain cover, and that it did not consider such departures from conventional standards of official conduct inappropriate, given the circumstances. “I have come to the conclusion that some of our traditional ideas of international sportsmanship are scarcely applicable in the morass in which the world now flounders,” the President wrote privately in 1955. “Truth, honor, justice, consideration for others, liberty for all – the problem is how to preserve them, nurture them and keep the peace – if this last is possible – when we are opposed by people who scorn … these values. I believe we can do it, but we must not confuse these values with mere procedures, even though these last may have at one time held almost the status of moral concepts.”9 7 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page127 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page 158 9 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page159 8 -5- (4) Eisenhower and the "New Look" (12 January 1954) – Asymmetry vs. Symmetry It is reasonable to ask, then, just what the administration’s John Foster Dulles strategy was on the use of nuclear weapons, and how it differed from the recommendations put forward in NSC-68. The answer revolves largely around the question of symmetrical versus asymmetrical response. The Truman administration, of course, had emphasized symmetry: deterrence would work by creating certainty in the mind of the adversary both as to the inevitability and the limits of an American response – the United States would counter, but not exceed, the initial provocation. The Eisenhower administration, embraced asymmetry, sought to combine the certainty of a response with the uncertainty as to its nature. The idea was to open up a range of possible responses so wide that the adversary would not be able to counter or retain the initiative; lacking that, it was thought, he would come to see the risks of aggression as outweighing the benefits. All of this had to be done at tolerable cost, though; hence the attraction of threats to use nuclear weapons. As a top-secret statement of “Basic National Security Policy” put it early in 1955: “So long as the Soviets are uncertain of their ability to neutralize the U.S. nuclear-air retaliatory power, there is little reason to expect them to initiate general war or actions which they believe would … endanger the regime and the security of the USSR.”10 (5) Dulles "Policy for Security and Peace" Foreign Affairs (April 1954) (a) Massive Retaliation (b) Brinkmanship (6) The Criticisms of the “New Look” … The prevailing judgment in intellectual and political circles by 1960 was that the “New Look” had failed, because it had: (1) relied excessively on nuclear weapons as the primary instrument of deterrence, thereby narrowing the range of feasible response to aggression; (2) failed to deter revolutions in the Third World; (3) allowed a “missile gap” to develop, thus undermining the strategic balance with the Soviet Union; and (4) neglected opportunities for negotiations with its adversaries. These became the central elements in the Democratic party’s critique of Eisenhower in 1960; they also provide a convenient framework within which to reconsider both the imperfections and accomplishments of the “New Look.” 11 3) The New Cold War – The Transition of Authority in the Soviet Union and the Partition of Germany Inside the Tomb of Lenin & Stalin a) The Death of Stalin (5 March 1953) b) The Struggle for Power, The Four Wise Men: Georgi Malenko, Lavrenty Beria, Nikolai Bulganin & Nikita Khrushchev i) The State – USSR Council of Ministers ii) The Party – Party Presidium c) Beria & Malenkov … It seems that Beria grossly underestimated the importance of the Party Secretariat and expected that with the mechanism of terror in his hands and a weak Malenkov in the position of head of state, he would have an ideal platform for a future power struggle. In the biggest mistake of his life, he misjudged the abilities of Nikita Khrushchev, then just a dark horse in new leadership.12 10 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page 151 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page 165 12 Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev. Page 155 11 -6- Germany Divided d) Germany i) Stalin’s Policies toward Germany Beria never bothered to ask any Soviet authorities for permission before issuing these orders or to coordinate his policies with them. Nor did he ever care about the “Socialist” future of Germany; and he cared even less for the East German puppets of Moscow. As a result of operations supervised by Malenkov and Beria, East Germany lost 3,500 plants and factories, 1,115,00 pieces of equipment, and Walter Ulbricht 2,000,000 industrial jobs. All this, in addition to the millions of forced refugees, arrested opposition members, and brutal persecution of intellectuals in Eastern Europe, amounted to a hidden but quite powerful dimension of Soviet foreign policy. It was traditional policy of empire, but a more barbaric one. This occupational policy deeply affected millions of people and did irreparable damage to the image of Stalin’s Soviet Union in Central Europe. 13 ii) Walter Ulbricht – Socialist Unity Party (SED) iii) The Options for a resolution of the German question: (1) One Side Wins (2) A Politically Neutral Germany (3) The Partition of Germany iv) The German Crisis, 16-17 June 1953 v) The Fall of Beria Beria’s downfall meanwhile ensured Ulbricht’s survival: he was now able to move against his own potential opponent with impunity. The East German leader may have planned it all this way. But he certainly wrecked what little was left of Beria’s German initiative; and the resulting disorder gave Beria’s rivals in the Kremlin the excuse they needed to move against him. Having done so, it would have been difficult for any of them - at least as long as the succession struggle was under way – to oppose Ulbricht, since that would have suggested association with rebellion and treason. The culture of distrust Stalin had left behind now linked his heirs to an East German leader Stalin himself had never trusted. 14 13 14 Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev. Page 147 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 131 -7- e) f) vi) The German Democratic Republic (GDR) The Emergence of Khrushchev i) The failure of the “Elites” ii) Khrushchev and the Consolidation of Power The Division of Europe i) The Schuman Plan Nikita Khrushchev Acheson’s ideas where shunted aside when Schuman momentously proposed that the coal and steel industries of France and Germany be placed under supranational authority. Schuman would limit France’s sovereignty as well as Germany’s in order to achieve a common market, joint modernization and export programs, standardization of freight rates, and equalization of working and living conditions. Other European nations could join if they desired. Schuman was vague on particulars, but he shrewdly assessed domestic, European, and international economic and political realities. He sought to break the European integration impasse, co-op German power, and place France in the forefront of European diplomacy before lifting restraints on Germany’s sovereignty narrowed France’s options.15 ii) Federal German Republic (FGR) joins NATO, May 1955 iii) The Warsaw Treaty Organization, May 1955 g) German Asymmetry One important asymmetry had to do with material capabilities; as Eisenhower’s National Security Council pointed out in 1953, West Germany had “nearly three times the population, about five times the industrial output, and almost twice the size” of East Germany. … Another asymmetry was political in character. The West Germans had chosen and, on the whole, were satisfied with their government; neither was true in East Germany. … Finally there was a military asymmetry. Despite the fact that West German rearmament was now proceeding within NATO alliance, the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies retained an overwhelming conventional force advantage, with all the risks of psychological intimidation – to say nothing of actual invasion – this entailed.16 4) Negotiations a) Arms Reduction i) The Soviet Proposal (10 May 1955) ii) The US Position (1) The Arms Race U-2 …Most American officials evidently preferred the risk of an unconstrained arms race to any conceivable agreement that could be reached with the USSR. They were particularly skeptical that a disarmament accord could be adequately verified, and they believed, in any case, that U.S. security would be better served by an arms buildup.17 (2) Public Relations … According to a paper prepared for the National Security Council, U.S. disarmament policy through the mid-1950s was formulated primarily for its effect on “public relations” without taking into account the possibility that the USSR might actually accept the West’s proposal.18 15 Melvyn P. Leffler, A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War. Stanford University Press. 1992. Page 348. 16 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 137 17 Matthew Evangelista, “Cooperation Theory and Disarmament Negotiations in the 1950s.” World Politics. 42 (June 1990). Page 516 18 Matthew Evangelista, “Cooperation Theory and Disarmament Negotiations in the 1950s. Page 517 -8- b) The Geneva Summit (July 1955) i) Open Skies ii) The U-2 iii) The Soviet Military Cuts 5) De-Stalinization – The Secret Party Speech to the 20th Party Congress (February 1956) 6) Hungary (October – November 1956) a) The Hungarian Uprising – Imre Nagy (28 October 1956) b) The Implication for Empire – Contrasting the Empire by Invitation to the Empire of Force That, though, was the painful point: Khrushchev had to be ruthless to hold his alliance together. He had hoped to make Marxism-Leninism attractive enough that Stalinist methods would not be needed t o unsure its unity; but even the briefest experiment with de-Stalinization had set of centrifugal tendencies in Eastern Europe that ended in a bloodbath. “He was a kind man in normal human relationships,” Fedor Burlatsky, one of his advisers, later recalled, But in politics he did not recognize kindness, especially when it seems to him that “class interests” had been infringed. Still smoldering in his heart were the ashes of the Stalin he himself had cast down. He executed Nagy as a lesson to all other leaders in socialist countries, thinking as he did so of Gomulka and Kadar, and perhaps also of Tito and Mao. In his eyes political expediency was superior to morality. Humanity came second to security. “You need to give your people the right orientation,” Khrushchev lectured demoralized Hungarian communists after it was all over. “You need to tell them that this [Nagy’s movement] was a counterrevolution. If it was not, then how could we have used weapons?” It is indeed Khrushchev’s voice but Stalin’s logic: “if they had not been enemies of the people, how could we have shot them?” The Warsaw Pact survived, as did Khrushchev, although narrowly. But after 1956 no one could maintain the illusion that it was as Eastern European NATO: an alliance based on voluntary participation and democratic methods of operation. Despite Khrushchev’s reforms, the asymmetry of imposition versus invitation remained. As a consequence; the Soviet Union could never count upon the loyalty of its European “allies:” it would have to watch them just as carefully as it did those of the United States. Little had really changed, then, since Stalin’s day: the great ghost was not so easily exorcised after all.19 c) Cold War Europe Imre Nagy The Emergence of the ICBM i) The Soviet ICBM – Sergei Korolyov (3 August 1957) ii) Sputnik (4 October 1957) (1) The Perception of the Soviet Union … The authors of a profile of the Soviet leader prepared for John Kennedy were correct when they wrote that Khrushchev hoped his missiles would force the West to treat the USSR with respect, promote Soviet national security and the world revolution, “and even perhaps [help] assure universal peace (Soviet style) through disarmament.” The nuclear missiles, even before they were deployed, gave Khrushchev a pretext to start implementing his program of moving to the “highest” stage in the construction of communism in the USSR – a pipe dream of the scion of the Russian Revolution. … 19 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 211 -9- Thus the thermonuclear revolution did shape Khrushchev’s thinking and lead him to transform Soviet Cold War policies in several important ways. The Soviet leader began to look at the Cold War as first and foremost a nuclear stalemate between the two superpowers. And though he cam to the conclusion that a war between them could not be fought and won, he quickly tried to turn the sword of nuclear deterrence – and even blackmail – on the country that (he believed) had practiced it first, the United States. That became the weapon with which Khrushchev sought to obtain Washington’s recognition of the USSR as an equal global power. 20 Sputnik (2) The Effect on the United States All hell did break loose. Sputnik was a sharp slap to American pride, but worse, it suggested Soviet technical and military parity with the West, which in turn undermined the assumptions on which free world defense was based. To those in the know, the limited importance of the Soviet satellite and the true proportions of military might were clear. But to Eisenhower’s opponents, ranging from hawkish senators to civil rights activists, critics of Republican economics to pushers federal aid to education, Sputnik was an opportunity to sell their programs as cures to the presumed ailments of American life that contributed to the ‘loss’ of the space race. From October 1957 to the end of his term, Eisenhower was under siege, and with him the public values he championed. Thus Sputnik was the greatest defeat Eisenhower could have suffered, and it wiped out much of the five years’ efforts to meet the Cold War challenge without America, in his view, ceasing to be America.21 (3) The Missile Gap (a) The Bluff For it was all a bluff. At the very time Khrushchev boasted of the obsolescence of American “massive retaliation,” the U.S. deterrent was at the height of its effectiveness and the USSR had yet to deploy a single ICBM. 22 (b) The end of the gap The first satellite sparked the missile gap; the first reconnaissance satellites snuffed it out. Joseph Alsop, previously a noisy patron of the “gap,” broke the news on September 25, 1961: new intelligence revealed that something less than fifty Soviet missiles existed. In October Deputy Secretary Gilpatric admitted that the United States would have more missiles even after absorbing a surprise attack than the USSR had available for a first strike. In November the New York Times made it official. The United States had already some 233 missiles capable of reaching Soviet territory to some fifty or less Soviet ones able to reach the United States: “The ‘missile gap,’ like the ‘bomber gap’ before, is now being consigned to the limbo of synthetic issues, where it has always belonged.” 23 Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev Page 193 Walter A. McDougall, …The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age. Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. Page 132 22 Walter A. McDougall, …The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age. Page 250. 23 Walter A. McDougall, …The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age. Page 229. 20 21 - 10 - The Mao Interlude Three Big Ideas Regarding Mao and the CCP in China Mao never had total control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Mao focused on ideological issues to compensate for this relative weakness. When Mao felt the CCP was straying from his ideological path he went outside the party to regain control (He did this three times). The implications of these actions where not always clearly foreseeable. Sino-Soviet relations are greatly effected by this internal ideological power struggle. Mao links the Soviet Union, Khrushchev, and his CCP opponents to Leninist policies, which he believes, would fail in China and elsewhere. - 11 - The Road to Mao’s China China in the 1950s 1) Understanding Mao Zedong ( Mao Thought vs. Maoism) a) Mao the Marxist (Mao Thought) b) Maoism (A Distinct Theory) – Not Marxism c) The Significance of the Mao Thought vs. Maoism Debate The debate will continue. But does it matter? Does the peasant dying from starvation at the end of the Great Leap Forward accept his fate more readily because it was a Marxist Policy which led to his fate? The answer to the second question is no, but the answer to the first question is a resounding yes for three main reasons. First, Mao was convinced he was right and convinced that his was the correct Marxist approach. While it is true that Mao wanted power, he did not want power for its own sake. He was also motivated by ensuring that his correct Marxist ideas were followed, and if people got in the way and relied on inappropriate Russian models, then those obstacles had to be removed. Second, and following from above, we return to the importance of Sino-Soviet relations, and Mao’s attitude towards Soviet Marxism. In the international communist debate, it was important for Mao to ascertain that his ideas were not only part of the Marxist canon, but also the best model for others to follow in promoting revolution in the third world. Third, and more important for this study, Mao had to argue that his ideas were correct Marxist ideas in competition with those Chinese leaders who instinctively and ideologically looked to Masco for their inspiration. Unable to dominate the specifics of policy-making on a day-to-day level within the party-state bureaucracy, Mao’s major was of reasserting himself in the political arena was to maintain the importance ideology on the political agenda. By continually keeping the ideological debate alive, and by continually emphasizing the correct Marxist approach of seeking truth from facts and asserting the primacy of the Chinese experience, Mao could reassert his views over and above those of his colleagues, and use the Marxist debate as a tool to attack his opponents. Defending his ideas as the only correct interpretation of Marxism in the Chinese case was a crucial component of Mao’s political strategy.24 2) The Structure of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) The Organic Law of the Central People’s Government – September 12, 1949 (Based on Mao’s New Democracy 1940) i) Economic Structure (1) State Economy Flag of the PRC (2) Agricultural Economy (3) Private Economy ii) Democratic Socialism – The Flag (1) Large Star – CCP Leadership (2) Four Small Stars (a) Workers (b) Peasants (c) Petty Bourgeois (d) National Bourgeois iii) Rectification – Winning back deviants through reform and realizing mistakes iv) The Structure of Government (1) Central People’s Government Council – The Chairman Mao Zedong (2) The State Administrative Council – Premier Zhou Enlai b) The Party i) The Central Committee ii) Politburo iii) Chairman Mao a) 3) The Collectivization Debate and the “Hundred Flowers” Campaign a) In the Early 1950’s Mao = A traditional Leninist approach to development. b) The First Five-Year Plan 1953-58 c) Land Reform and the Division of the Party – The Debate over Collectivization. 24 Shaun Breslin, Mao. Page 68 - 12 - i) Leninists – Liu Shaoqi, Chen Yun, & Li Fuchun ii) Maoist – Mao iii) March 1955 – Cautious Approach to Collectivization – Mao Loses iv) Mao goes outside the party and takes it to the people July 1955 – One of the three times Mao goes outside the party d) The 8th Party Congress of the CCP 1956 (Khrushchev’s party speech is Feb. 1956) – A rejection of Maoism e) May 26, 1956 – Let a Hundred Flowers Bloom, A Hundred Schools of Thought Contend. f) February 1957 – The Correct Handling of Contradictions Amongst the People. g) June 1957 – The Revised Edition – Re-Education through Labor h) Historiography i) Machiavellian Mao – Mao did it to attack the party leadership ii) Reactive Mao – Mao expected people to love him, when they did not he clamped down iii) Mao in the Middle – Mao did it to get back at the party but was surprised by the results 4) The Great Leap Forward and the Purge of Peng Dehuai a) The Great Leap 1958-59 b) Peasant Power at work c) Mao out of touch [w]hat we were seeing from our windows … was staged, a huge multi-act nationwide Chinese opera preformed especially for Mao. The party secretaries had ordered furnaces constructed everywhere along the rail route, stretching out for ten li on either side. … In Hubei, [the] party secretary … had ordered peasants to remove rice plants from far away fields and transplant them along Mao’s route, to give the impression of a wildly abundant crop. … All of China was a stage, all the people performers in an extravaganza for Mao.25 d) The Cost of the Great Leap Mao’s experiment in economics did surpass the record of everyone else in the world, although not in the manner he had intended: the Great Leap Forward, it is now clear, produced the most devastating famine in modern history. We will never know how many died, but estimates of the toll range from 16 to 27 million, with the higher figure probably the more accurate one. 26 e) The Purge of Peng Dehuai – The Conference at Lushan Whatever the case, Peng was dismissed. This move proved important for two major reasons. First, for Lieberthal, Mao broke apart the accepted norms of inner party behavior: Mao seems at Lushan to have broken the unwritten rules that had governed debate among the top leadership to that point. Before Lushon, it was accepted that any leader could freely voice his opinion at a party gathering, and debate could be heated. Nobody would be taken to task subsequently for what he had said, as long as he formally accepted and acted in accord with the final decision reached. The new message was clear: criticizing Mao could be damaging to your health. Second, Peng’s purge was followed by the elimination of many of his followers within the military. Crucially Mao’s loyal supporter, Lin Biao, replaced Peng as Minister of Defense. … 27 5) The Sino-Soviet Split – The Disintegration of the Bi-Polar World a) The Cold War and Mao After Stalin’s death, however, the power of Moscow and its iron fist began to weaken. A totalitarian party state can function at its best – that is, exercising full control over its people and its outer sphere of influence – only with full-scale terror and a leader who completely adheres to the principles of absolute power and control. At the same time, totalitarianism cannot exist forever without changes in attitude and without relaxation of the terror mechanism that usually occurs with the death of the leader. The new “dominant minority,” to use Arnold Toynbee’s broad term, emerges after the revolution and seeks to establish control. The new elite in post-revolutionary society demand the natural privilege of their high status: personal safety. Also, they want more security in the international arena. They do not want all-out wars, for defeat can undermine their power. The new elite seek some kind of rapprochement with the powerful members of the world community. They can handle crises that are Dr. Li Zhisui (Mao’s personal doctor) The Private Life of Chairman Mao, Random House, 1994. Page 278 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 216 27 Shuan Breslin, Mao. Page 98-99 25 26 - 13 - under their full control and do not contradict their goals. This natural tendency became even stronger as the Soviet elite had to live with nuclear weapons and abide by the new rules of nuclear bipolarity. As a result, by the end of the 1950s Moscow was more inclined to manage international relations in its own interests than to stick to the principles of revloutionarism. Here was the source of ideological differences between Moscow and Beijing. Mao was in his prime. His revolutionary absolutism was quite young and could function at its full capacity. 28 b) China and DeStalinization i) Mao and Stalin As a symbol, though, Stalin was still extremely useful to Mao. The reason had to do with his belief that the Chinese revolution had to replicate the stages the Russian revolution had gone through. There was no other example of a successful socialist uprising, so it was natural for the Chinese to want to follow the Soviet Union’s path: hence their frequent references to that country as the “elder brother,” from whom the “younger brother” must learn. Mao, though, was surprisingly literal about this. We have seen how he expected an American invasion of China in 1949 because the United States and its allies had sent troops to Siberia and North Russia in 1918: the Korean and Indochinese conflicts, as he perceived it, were the functional equivalent of such foreign intervention. He had allowed a brief period of experimentation with state-sponsored capitalism, analogous to Lenin’s New Economic Policy. He had collectivized agriculture and launched a Five-year Plan for rapid industrialization, both based carefully on the Soviet model. He was willing to wait “eighteen or even more years” for diplomatic recognition from the United States, because it had taken seventeen to recognize the Soviet Union. And he was certainly developing, as Khrushchev noted, a “cult of personality”: “I believe Mao suffered from the same megalomania Stalin had all his life.” Dr. Li would confirm that Mao was “China’s Stalin, and everyone knew it.” 29 ii) The Purge Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization campaign had initially weakened Mao’s authority by encouraging warnings from within his own party about autocratic leadership: these surfaced at the 8 th Party Congress, held in Beijing in September 1956. Mao himself appeared to confirm them the following February, when he made his famous call to let “one hundred flowers bloom and one hundred schools of thought contend.” There followed a remarkable outpouring of criticism from all sides, much of it directed against the party generally, some against Mao personally. Then, in June, he abruptly changed course, encouraging a counterattack on “rightists” who, he claimed, were attempting to wreck the revolution. “we can coax the snakes out of their holes,” Mao explained. “Then we will strike. My strategy is to let the poisonous weeds grow first and then destroy them one by one. Let them become fertilizer.”30 c) The Great Leap Forward and the Revolution Mao then chose to follow Stalin in yet another sense – except this time he wound up killing many more people than the Kremlin autocrat had ever dreamed of doing. The Great Leap Forward had complex roots and multiple objectives; but it was fundamentally a rejection of planning in favor of enforced mass energy and enthusiasm. Although earlier efforts to emulate Soviet collectivization and industrialization had not worked out, Mao was not totally repudiating Stalin’s example: the great “genius’ too, at times, had become impatient with planning and had glorified the sheer force of will. … What Mao did in 1958, though, was to abandon planning altogether and substitute will on a national scale: all of China would be organized into people’s communes, which would in turn – through the use of backyard furnaces – double the nation’s steel production in a year. 31 d) The Crisis i) The United States, PRC, Soviet Union, and Taiwan Meanwhile, to highlight American support for Taiwan, the United States stationed military advisers on several offshore islands held by Chaing Kai-shek’s forces, and, as we have seen, the campaign to conclude a U.S.-Taiwan defense treaty was stepped up during the highly publicized visit of the Secretary of Defense and General Van Fleet in May and June. It was at this point that China’s press, in two editorials, issued the call “We Must Liberate Taiwan” and made the “Glorious Task of the People’s Liberation Army” to do so. At his press conference on August 3 [1954], Dulles declared that the United States would apply force to prevent the Communist conquest of Taiwan and would pursue the negotiation of a military treaty with Taiwan. … Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev. Harvard University Press, 1996. Page 214 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 212-213 30 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 214 31 John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 215 28 29 - 14 - … Each side was escalating its provocation against the other as the United States and Taiwan completed negotiations on the security pact tat was to be signed on December 2, 1954.32 ii) Quemoy and Mazudao Round 1 – 1954-55 It was during the 1954-55 confrontation between Beijing and Washington over the offshore islands of Quemoy (Jinmen) and Matsu (Matzu) in the Taiwan Strait that Mao made his initial decisions to develop at least a modest nuclear capability. Recognizing the difficulty of neutralizing U.S. nuclear strength, Mao nevertheless believed a few weapons would raise the international prestige of the PRC and its leadership. In January 1955, in the midst of the crisis, he authorized a full-scale effort to make China a nuclear power. 33 iii) Nuclear Weapons - On providing the assistance of the USSR to the PRC in the matter of development of studies on the physics of the atomic nucleus and the utilization of atomic energy for the needs of the people’s economy (April 27, 1955). On April 27, 1955, the two governments signed an agreement under the unwieldy name “On providing the assistance of the USSR to the PRC in the matter of development of studies on the physics of the atomic nucleus and the utilization of atomic energy for the needs of the people’s economy.” According to Khrushchev, “When China asked us for an atomic bomb, we ordered our scientists to receive [Chinese] representatives and to teach them how to produce one.” The Soviets provided nuclear know-how for free. “We gave everything Mao & Khrushchev to China,” recalled Khrushchev. “We kept no secrets from 34 the Chinese.” iv) The Swimming Pool From July 31 until August 4, 1958, Khrushchev was in Beijing for a second time, to test the waters. Already appalled by Mao’s domestic revolutionary ardor, he now had to confront the Chairman on international issues. … In trying to share his vision of the new nuclear geopolitics, Khrushchev failed miserably. He recalled, “Mao replied by trying to assure me that the atomic bomb itself was a paper tiger!35 v) The Split – The Fear of Soviet Imperialism & Mao’s Domestic Agenda Goumidang Soldier on Guard Mao’s harsh reaction to these two issues [The Radio Station & Joint Naval Bases] reflected his increasing sensitivity regarding China’s sovereignty and equal status in relation to the Soviet Union. Underlying this sensitivity, though, was a strong and unique “victim mentality” that characterized Chinese revolutionary nationalism during modern times. This mentality had been informed by the conviction that the political, economic, and military aggression of foreign imperialist countries had undermined China’s historical glory and humiliated the Chinese nation. Consequently, it was natural for the Chinese Communists, in their efforts to end China’s humiliating modern experiences, to suspect the behavior of any foreign country as being driven by ulterior, or even evil, intentions. Although the Soviet Union was a Communist country, when Mao claimed the Khrushchev and his Kremlin Colleagues intended to control China, he apparently equated them to the leaders of Western Imperialism. 32 John Wilson Lewis & Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb. Stanford University Press. 1988. Page 26 -27. William Burr and Jeffrey Richelson, “Whether to ‘Strangle the Baby in the Cradle:’ The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, 196064.” International Security. (25:3) Winter 2000/01. Page 57-58 34 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 217 35 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 219 33 - 15 - That Mao’s suspicion and distrust of Soviet “chauvinist intentions” toward China came to a head in the summer of 1958, rather than earlier of later, should be understood in the context of the chairman’s criticism of “opposing rash advance” within the CCP leadership. … Mao believed that he had absolute command of the truth; and, in these monologues, the chairman became accustomed to teaching others in critical, often passionate, terms. Indeed, since Mao was turning his own revolutionary emotion into the dynamics for the Great Lead Forward, it is not surprising that he adopted the same challengeoriented stance in dealing with his Soviet comrades. 36 vi) Quemoy and Mazudao Round 2 – August 23, 1958 Mao smiled, recalled his interpreter, paused and then began speaking slowly in a low voice: “I have listened to you for a long time. You have accused us of quite a lot. You say we … did not unite with Nehru, that we shouldn’t have shelled Jinmen, that the Great Leap was wrong, that we brag about ourselves as orthodox Marxists. Therefore I have an accusation for you, too that you are guilty of ‘right opportunism.’” 37 vii) The Breakdown and Split (1) Nuclear Weapons On August 20, 1959, the Kremlin leaders sent a letter to Beijing, informing the PRC leadership that they would not provide them with a prototype of the Bomb. The demise of the Sino-Soviet nuclear program was a tangible blow to China’s prospects of developing a nuclear bomb, and it accelerated the unraveling of the Sino-Soviet alliance.38 (2) The Advisors By the beginning of June 1960, the Soviets made their final assessments. “Having used the aggravation of the international situation after the failure of the Paris summit, the Chinese leaders for the first time directly and openly opposed the foreign policy of the CPSU. In July 1960, Khrushchev decided to withdraw all Soviet specialists from China.39 6) “Cult of Personality” “The cult of personality of Mao Zedong,” Yuri Andropov underlined in the Embassy’s report, “is continuing to develop in the PRC.” Khrushchev later commented that this observation opened his eyes. Everything that happened in China later, especially during the “Proletarian Cultural Revolution,” was understood by him as an inevitable consequence of one-man tyranny.40 7) The End of Bi-Polarity The Sino-Soviet estrangement during the Taiwan crisis and the growing split afterward underlined the direction the Cold War was turning. In 1950 Stalin had, albeit reluctantly, supported the North Korean and then the Chinese “war of liberation” against the United States. In 1958-1959 Khrushchev demonstrated his desire to come to terms with the West, notwithstanding Chinese militant attitudes. Bipolarity was becoming obsolete by 1960, when military cooperation between China and the Soviet Union ended, and the Eastern bloc ceased being a monolith.41 Chen Jian, Mao’s China and the Cold War. The University of North Carolina Press. 2001. Pages 75-77 William Taubam, “Khrushchev vs. Mao: A Preliminary Sketch of the Role of Personality in the Sino-Soviet Split.” Cold War International History Project Bulletin. Winter 1996/97. Page 245 38 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 228 39 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 233 40 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 232 41 Zubok & Pleshakov, Page 234-235 36 37 - 16 - ---- The Cold War in the 1950s Continues ---- 7) The Cold War in the Third World a) An Overview i) Economics (The Developed World, The Developing World, & The Undeveloped World) ii) Imperialism and the Asymmetrical Nature of the Third World iii) The Appeal of Communism America found this prospect all the more painful because democratic values seemed likely here to undermine rather than reinforce Western interests. In Europe, Wilsonian principles of self-determination and market capitalism had complemented the balancing of power: idealism and realism worked well together because the alternative Soviet model had little beyond oppression to offer. But in much of the rest of the world the West itself had been the oppressor, whether through formal or informal means of exploitation. Paths to liberation and livelihood could quite plausibly appear to lie through Moscow and, after 1949, Beijing. The Kremlin was planning to use China, the newly formed Central Intelligence Agency warned, “as an advanced base to facilitate Soviet penetration of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia and the Philippines; the outflanking of India-Pakistan and the strategically important areas of the Middle and Near East; and eventually control of the entire Asiatic continent and the Western Pacific.” The threat Americans thought they had warded of in Europe and Japan – Moscow’s capability to transform misery into power – seemed only to have shifted to a wider arena. And this time Washington’s allies, as former and remaining colonists, were facilitating that process. 42 iv) The Third World and the “New Look” A second major criticism of the Eisenhower administration was that it had failed to deal successfully with the revolutionary movements that were becoming an increasingly prominent feature of life in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. These movements had arisen as European colonialism had declined (and in Latin America, as resentment over the alleged neo-colonialism of the United States had grown); despite their predictability, even inevitability, Washington officials more often than not seemed woefully unprepared for them. “[I]t is we, the American people, who should be marching at the head of this world-wide revolution, counseling it, helping it come to a healthy fruition,” Senator John F. Kennedy charged, in what became a conspicuous theme of his 1960 campaign. “Yet we have allowed the Communists to evict us from our rightful estate … We have been made to appear as the defenders of the status quo, while the Communists have portrayed themselves as the vanguard force, pointing the way to a better, brighter, and braver order of life.” United Nations Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge made the same point quietly within the councils of the administration: “the U.S. can win wars,” he told the cabinet in November 1959, “but the question is can we win revolutions?” 43 v) The Ego of the Superpowers and the power of the "third worlders" Antagonists in that conflict tended to calculate victories in term of failures, retreats, and humiliations inflicted upon their opposites. Symbolic triumphs often exceeded the value of the territories in which they occurred; in another pattern familiar from the history of empires, the game itself was what counted, rather than whatever it was the game was supposed to accomplish. Reputation emerged as a vital interest, with credibility the standard against which to measure it. This situation gave power to those who were supposed to have been on the receiving end of power: the "third worlders" themselves, who learned to manipulate the Americans and the Russians by laying on the flattery, pledging solidarity, feigning indifference, threatening defection, or even raising the specter of their own collapse and the disastrous results that might flow from it.44 42 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 152-153 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page176 44 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 154 43 - 17 - b) Middle East The Middle East i) Iran (1) Prime Minister Muhammad Mossadegh (2) Operation Ajax (20 August 1953) Shah Muhammad Reza Puhlavi ii) Egypt (1) Nasser – Ant-Imperialism, Nationalism, and the Cold War Muhammad Mossadegh Shah of Iran America’s handling of the cold war, Nasser concluded, helped the USSR penetrate countries that only accepted its aid to win independence; western flexibility could avoid this problem. He cautioned against confusing Arab and African Nationalist movements with communism. He complained that America saw freedom from foreign domination as “the inalienable right of every man, yet balk at supporting these nations foe fear of annoying some colonial Power that has refused to move with the times,” a view similar to that of liberal State Department analysts. 45 (2) The Founding of Israel (May 1948) Further complicating the American position was the peculiar mix of humanitarian compassion, domestic political expediency and personal stubbornness that led President Truman – against strong advice from his diplomatic and military advisers – to support a Jewish homeland in Palestine. This course of action the State Department Policy Planning Staff insisted, “would be construed by the Arabs as a virtual declaration of war against the Arab world.” When Truman went ahead and recognized the new state of Israel anyway in May 1948, many Washington officials feared that the decision would hand the Russians an enormous advantage. Not only threaten “some of our most vital interests in the Middle East and the Mediterranean,” Kennan argued; it could also disrupt the unity of the western world and … 45 Barry Rubin, “America and the Egyptian Revolution, 1950-1957.” Political Science Quarterly. 97/1 (Spring 1982). Page 81 - 18 - undermine our entire policy toward the Soviet Union.” The United States now carried the burden of the association with Zionism as well as colonialism.46 Nasser (3) The Cold War and the Middle East … A youthful but assertive Nasser explained to John Foster Dulles in May 1953, that the Soviets “had never occupied our territory … but the British have been here for seventy years. How can I go to my people and tell them I am disregarding a killer with a pistol sixty miles from me at the Suez Canal to worry about somebody who is holding a knife a thousand miles away?”47 (4) The Suez Crisis (a) The Conflict with Israel and Arms (b) Egyptian / Soviet Arms Deal (September 1955) (c) The Aswan Dam and the American Cutoff (16 July 1956) (d) The Nationalization of the Suez Canal (26 July 1956) (5) British, French and Israeli Intervention (29 July 1956) (a) The Western Alliance (b) Soviet Response Intercepted cables from foreign embassies in Moscow and other information soon convinced the Kremlin that the Americans had not been informed of the aggression in advance. In the United Nations, John F. Dulles strongly condemned the United States’ closest allies. Khrushchev immediately came up with a bold scheme: he South-East Asia persuaded the Presidium to send official letters to the aggressors, threatening them with Soviet military retaliation. Under the circumstances, retaliation could only mean a nuclear strike. Simultaneously, against the doubts of the baffled Molotov, Khrushchev made the Presidium approve a decision to suggest to the United States that they send a joint peace-keeping mission to the Middle East. The Eisenhower administration hastily rejected the offer, but this episode aggravated even further the bad feelings between Washington and its allies. 48 (6) The Eisenhower Doctrine (5 January 1957) (7) Dulles and US Middle East Policy But because the Secretary of State believed in filling all power vacuums – even those left, in the Middle East, by the despised British and French – he allowed the United States to inherit the enmities imperial powers normally attract when they seek too heavy-handedly to project their influence. Determined to force a Cold War frame of reference on a region more concerned with resisting imperialism than containing communism, Dulles deadened his own sensitivities to nationalism, thereby opening opportunities for the Soviet Union, which would retain a significant presence in Egypt for the next decade and a half and elsewhere in the Middle East for another decade and a half after that. Because of his tendency to fret, hover, and 46 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 164 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 168 48 Vladislav Zubok & Constantine Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War: From Stalin to Khrushchev Page 190-191 47 - 19 - meddle – his inability to see when things were going well and need not be re-engineered – Dulles transformed his own country into the new imperial power of the Middle East in what he knew to be a post-imperial age.49 c) Vietnam i) The Partition of Vietnam and United States Interests in Southeast Asia In the wake of the temporary partition of Vietnam at the Geneva Conference of 1954, the Eisenhower administration was determined to do what it could to ensure that southern Vietnam remained out of Communist hands. The National Security Council (NSC) provided the initial guide on 20 August 1954, when it approved a policy statement for Southeast Asia (NSC 5429/2). According to the NSC, past U.S. support for France in Indochina meant that the recent French reverses there had damaged American prestige and raised “doubts in Asia concerning U.S. leadership and the ability of the U.S. to check further expansion of Communism in Asia.” It was imperative, the council declared, that the United States “protect its position and restore its prestige in the Far East by a new initiative in Southeast Asia, where the situation must be stabilized as soon as possible to prevent further losses to Communism through (1) creeping expansion and subversion, or (2) overt aggression.” One critical component of this initiative would be the creation in September of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, which allowed the president to fashion a military response to communist attacks in the region. Specifically within South Vietnam, NSC 5429/2 indicated that the United States would seek to strengthen South Vietnam’s military forces, improve its economic condition, and promote democratic reforms, and would do so by cooperating with the French “only insofar as necessary.”50 Ngo Dinh Diem HoChi Minh ii) The Failure of United States Policy in Vietnam The U. S. strategy of containment failed in Vietnam partly because there was no selfsustaining state in the South for the United States to support. From its inception in 1954, South Vietnam was largely a political vacuum into which the United States became deeply drawn in a futile attempt to fill the void. American involvement helped sustain the Diem regime, but it handicapped the Saigon government in its competition with the Communists for National legitimacy. Eisenhower’s foreign policy may have been astute on some areas, as the revisionist argue, but in Vietnam, as one of the most recent and judicious revisionist studies acknowledges, the administration oversimplified and overcommitted. The United States fostered dependence, not independence, in South Vietnam. In the early 1960s, the Diem façade became increasingly untenable as internal Vietnamese opposition to him and his family mounted. His assassination in 1963 led to a series of short-lived successor regimes that further exposed the frailty of South Vietnam’s autonomy. There was no viable government in Saigon, and by the mid-1960s on U.S. military force could maintain the fiction that there was. 51 49 Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Page 176 L. Anderson, “J. Lawton Collins, John Foster Dulles, and the Eisenhower Administration’s ‘Point of No Return’ in Vietnam,” Diplomatic History. 12 (Spring 1988). Page 129 51 L. Anderson, “J. Lawton Collins, John Foster Dulles, and the Eisenhower Administration’s ‘Point of No Return’ in Vietnam,” Page 146-147 50 - 20 - d) Latin America Latin America i) Guatemala (1) US Policy in policy in Guatemala … Secretary of State John Foster Dulles said that “military force should not be used aggressively to achieve national goals.” Yet during his tenure at Foggy Bottom, American planes and American advisers helped secure the overthrow of a popularly elected president, Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán. Arbenz, for his part, claimed to view American policy as the cat’s paw of corporate greed and attributed a large share of his nations problems to the United Fruit Company (UFC), maintaining that communism posed no threat to his people and that American aid to rebel leader Carlos Castillo Armas constituted unwarranted interference in the domestic affairs of another country. … 52 (2) The Implication of US action Eisenhower’s overthrow of Arbenz marks a turning point in U.S. foreign policy for at least four reasons. First, Americans misunderstood the Guatemalan situation. Arbenz had been constitutionally elected and headed a reform – not communist – movement. A handful of communists sat in the national legislature and influenced the labor movement, but no one ever argued that they in any way shaped the country’s most important institutions: the presidency, the army, and the Roman Catholic Church. Americans too easily confused nationalism with communism. Second, despite the confusion, the administration pulled off such a successful and covert operation that Dulles could deny that his brother Allen (director of the CIA) was involved with Arbenz’s removal. … Americans too quickly and mistakenly concluded that such an operation could easily be repeated elsewhere. Third, Arbenz finally fell when his military deserted. Future Latin American revolutionaries drew the appropriate lesson. Fidel Castro of Cuba and, in the 1980s, the Sandinista government of Nicaragua would make the army and the government part of a single unit. Overthrowing such regimes would require a war, not simply a covert CIA operation. Finally, the United States won the battle but lost the longer war. In Guatemala (and latter elsewhere) Americans failed to replace the deposed regime with an effective liberal reformer. Castillo Armas carried out large-scale executions that killed more Guatemalans after the invasion than had died during the conflict. Reactionary and ineffective, he was assassinated by members of his own regime three years later. The United States poured more aid into Guatemala between 1954 and 1965 than into any other Latin American nation, but the only results by the mid-1960s were a brutal military government and the growth of a revolutionary guerrilla movement more radical than any group in the country before 1954. 53 Fredrick W. Marks III, “The CIA and Castillo Armas in Guatemala, 1954: New Clues to an Old Puzzle,” Diplomatic History. 14/1 (Winter 1990). Page 67 53 Walter LaFeber, America, Russia, and the Cold War, 1945-1996. 8th Ed. McGraw Hill, 1997. Page 159 52 - 21 - ii) Cuba (1) Fidel Castro v. President Fulgencio Batista (1 January 1959) iii) Ernesto “Che” Guevara e) Fulgencio Batista Fidel Castro The Failure of the “New Look” in the Third World Much of the administration’s difficulty in dealing with communism in the Third World stemmed from the chronic failure to distinguish deterrable from nondeterrable phenomena. The theory of deterrence implies that the behavior to be deterred (1) represents something less than a total commitment on the part of the adversary, and (2) is under reliable central direction. Neither of these conditions could be assumed in the Third World. It is all very well to Ernesto “Che” Guevara threaten nuclear retaliation against the Chinese, whose determination to prolong the fighting in Korea was not strong but whose control over the forces involved there was; to apply the same tactic in Indochina, where the insurgents were totally committed but not susceptible to outside control, was something else again. A North Atlantic Treaty Organization could well have deterred a Soviet attack in Europe if one had ever been planned; There was no assurance that the alliances patterned on that precedent would discourage autonomous but potentially hostile revolutions in the arc of non-communist states running from Turkey to South Korea. A Formosa Resolution might carry weight with Peking on the issue of Quemoy and Matsu; to attempt, through an Eisenhower Doctrine, to deter something as vague as “communism” in an area as amorphous as “the Middle East” was a wholly different proposition. Covert action might work with deceptive smoothness to stage palace coups in Iran and Guatemala; its use as a means of sparking broad popular uprisings against entrenched nationalist regimes such as those of Sukarno in Indonesia or Castro in Cuba was another matter entirely. The administration, in short, can be said to have been a victim of its own successes, and of its inability to see beyond them: it was not sufficiently sensitive to the possibility that what worked in one context might not in a wholly different one. 54 8) The Post-Revisionist view of the “New Look” Contrary to current revisionist claims, then, Eisenhower was something less than a “genius.” He achieved his goal of greater deterrence at less cost, but only through too casual a willingness to use nuclear weapons in limited war situations, an unnecessary confusion over what, in the Third World, he was trying to deter, a failure to follow through on his own commitment to negotiations, and, it must be added, a fair amount of plain good luck. Still, his strategy was coherent, bearing the signs of his influence at almost every level, careful, for the most part, in its relations of ends to means, and, on the whole, more consistent with than detrimental to the national interest. It is a modest claim, but nonetheless a more favorable one than one can reasonably make about either the strategy that proceeded, or the one that followed, the “New Look.” 55 54 55 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page180-181 Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of Postwar American National Security Policy. Page 197 - 22 - The Foreign Policies Dwight David Eisenhower Dwight David Eisenhower Republican Elected in 1952 and Re-elected in 1956 Vice President Richard Millhouse Nixon First Republican President since 1932 Economics Conservative Republic Balanced Budget & Limited Government Spending Cold War Polices The New Look Massive Retaliation / Brinkmanship Sec. of State & Key Officials John Foster Dulles – Sectary of State Allen Dulles – CIA Director Cold War Crises East Germany / Hungary / Suez China Other Key Issues Garrison State - 23 - IB Topics in 20th Century History Log Requirements & Reading assignments The New Cold War 1953-1960 Required Reading: Cold War in the 1950s Walter LaFeber, America, Russia, and the Cold War, 1945-1996. 1. Chapter 7 – A Different Cold War (1953-55) – 1 Log 2. Chapter 8 – East and West of Suez (1954-1957) – 1 Log John Lewis Gaddis, “Chapter 5: The German Question,” We Now Know. – 1 Log Aaron Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State: America’s Anti-Statism and Its Cold War Grand Strategy. 1. Introduction – 1 Log 2. Chapter 1 – Statism, Anti- Statism, and American Political Development – 1 Log 3. Chapter 2 – The Cold War Founding – 1 Log 4. Chapter 3 – The American Strategic Synthesis – 1 Log Mao Interlude Shaun Breslin – Mao 1. Chapter 4 – Toward the Cultural Revolution – 1 Log 2. Chapter 5 – Launching the Cultural Revolution – 1 Log 3. Chapter 6 – Mao and the World – 1 Log William Taubman “Khrushchev vs. Mao: A Preliminary Sketch of the Role of Personality in the Sino-Soviet Split” Bulletin: Cold War International History Project. Issues 8-9, Winter 1996/1997. – 1 Log Chen Jian, “Chapter 3: Mao’s Continuous Revolution and the Rise and Demise of the Sino-Soviet Alliance, 1949-1963.” Mao’s China and the Cold War. – 1 Log Possible Paper #1 Questions: 1. Prescribe Subject 3 – The Cold War 1945 - 1964 Possible Paper #2 Questions: Topic 3: The rise and rule of single-party states 1. In 1944 Mao Zedong [Mao Tes-tung] wrote, “If we have shortcomings we are not afraid to have them pointed out and criticized.” How far did his subsequent policies support this statement? 2. In what ways and for what reasons did China develop its own brand of Marxism/Communism under Mao Zedong? Topic 5: The Cold War 1. In what ways and for what reasons did the Cold War affect the Middle East? 2. “A different kind of Cold War.” To what extent is this a valid statement about the Cold War after 1953? 3. To what extent was Germany the cause of East/West disagreement between 1943-1960? 4. Explain the significance of the Sino-Soviet split with respect to relations between East and West. 5. Explain how relations between the United States and the Soviet Union were effected by relations of each with China. Possible Paper #3 Questions: 1. In what ways, and to what extent, did Eisenhower’s foreign policy demonstrate the limits of American power in the 1950s? 2. Assess the foreign policy of one United States President between 1945 and 1985. Log Requirements: For each log entry you must complete all of the following that are applicable 1. Complete citation (author, title, publication information, & date of publication) 2. Type of writing / Audience for the writing 3. Major Thesis 4. Supporting information 5. Specific quotes that illuminate the author’s argument 6. Strengths and limitations of the source 7. Your response to the reading (how has the reading effected your understanding of the subject) - 24 - Rubric: A = All logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner, No missing entries. B+ = Most logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner, few logs do not deal with all issues, No missing entries. B = Some logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner, many logs do not deal with all issues, No missing entries. C+ = Missing entries, All logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner. C = Missing entries, Most logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner, few logs do not deal with all issues. D+ = Missing entries, Some logs deal with all applicable issues in a thoughtful manner, many logs do not deal with all issues. D = Majority of entries are missing. F = No Log. - 25 - Section C Texts in this examination paper have been edited: significant wording additions are shown in square brackets, and substantive deletions of text are indicated by ellipses (three points […]); minor changes are not indicated. Prescribed Subject 3 The Cold War 1945-1964 (Topic 5) These documents refer to the Suez Crisis of 1956 Document A America and the Egyptian Revolution, 1957-1959 by Barry Rubin published in Political Science Quarterly, Spring 1982. America’s handling of the cold war, Nasser concluded, helped the USSR penetrate countries that only accepted its aid to win independence; western flexibility could avoid this problem. He cautioned against confusing Arab and African Nationalist movements with communism. He complained that America saw freedom from foreign domination as “the inalienable right of every man, yet balk at supporting these nations for fear of annoying some colonial Power that has refused to move with the times,” a view similar to that of liberal State Department analysts Document B November 5, 1956. Letter from Premier Bulganin of the Soviet Union to President Eisenhower. In this troubled and responsible moment for the cause of universal peace, I approach you on behalf of the Soviet Government. A whole week has passed since the armed forces of Britain, France, and Israel, obedient to the will of external powers, attacked Egypt without any reason, bringing in their wake death and destruction. … The Soviet Union and the U.S.A. are permanent members of the Security Council and the two great powers which possess all modern types of arms, including the atomic and hydrogen weapons. We bear particular responsibility for stopping the war and reestablishing peace and calm in the area of the Near and Middle East. … Mr. President, at this menacing hour, when the loftiest moral principals and foundation and aims of the United Nations are being put to the test, the Soviet government approaches the government of the U.S. with a proposal of close cooperation in order to put an end to aggression and to stop further bloodshed. Document C A cartoon published in The Washington Post, 1956. - 26 - Document D January 5, 1957. Statement by the President of the United States (Dwight D. Eisenhower) to the Congress. “It would, in the third place, authorize such assistance and cooperation to include the employment of the armed forces of the United States to secure and protect the territorial integrity and political independence of such nations, requesting such aid, against overt armed aggression from any nation controlled by International Communism…” Document E An extract from We now know: Rethinking Cold War History by John Lewis Gaddis, published in 1997. Gaddis is Professor of History at Yale University. But because the Secretary of State believed in filling all power vacuums – even those left, in the Middle East, by the despised British and French – he allowed the United States to inherit the enmities imperial powers normally attract when they seek too heavy-handedly to project their influence. Determined to force a Cold War frame of reference on a region more concerned with resisting imperialism than containing communism, Dulles deadened his own sensitivities to nationalism, thereby opening opportunities for the Soviet Union, which would retain a significant presence in Egypt for the next decade and a half and elsewhere in the Middle East for another decade and a half after that. Because of his tendency to fret, hover, and meddle – his inability to see when things were going well and need not be re-engineered – Dulles transformed his own country into the new imperial power of the Middle East in what he knew to be a post-imperial age - 27 - 9. Explain briefly the following references a) ‘…Nasser’ [Document A]. [2 mark] b) ‘…hydrogen weapons’ [Document B] [2 marks] 10. In what ways do the views of Communism expressed in Documents C and D, differ from those stated by the author in Document E? [5 marks] 11. Analyze the reliability of Documents B and E. 12. Using these documents and your own knowledge, discuss the effect of the Cold War on the origins of the Suez Crisis. [6 marks] - 28 - [5 marks]