Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 University of Management and Technology Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 Basic Information Program: Semester: Credit Hours: Prerequisites: Resource Person: Contact Information: MBA-Professional Fall 2010 3 Students attending this course should have studied Business Mathematics. Malik Umer Ayub umer.ayub@umt.edu.pk Capsule Statement Important decisions are rarely made by intuition alone. We need to use the data to develop our insights and to support our analysis. Quantitative analysis includes the tools and techniques with which we seek to replicate reality mathematically. Quantitative Techniques are applied in all the functions of business like Operations, Marketing, HR, Finance etc. The aim of this course is to learn when a technique is appropriate and what it can achieve. The emphasis throughout the course is on concepts and reasoning rather than technical details. You should acquire some basic data analysis skills but most importantly, become a more informed and critical producer and user of business Statistical analyses. Learning Objectives Purpose of the course is to provide the participants with statistical and analytical tools useful for business mangers. Future managers will use these tools in planning, executing and evaluating their business needs. Upon successfully completing this course, the participants will be able to: Identify and formulate problems where quantitative techniques can have an impact. Use statistical tools to solve these problems. Assess data with healthy skepticism and seek expert help when needed. Recognize when better data and information are needed for decision making. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 Learning Methodology Following instructional tools and methodologies would be used during the course. Lectures: 15 sessions in total including MID TERM Exam. In Class Exercises: Each session is accompanied by Exercises from the TEXT Calculators: Scientific Calculator Computer Software: SPSS Assessment Scheme Participants would be evaluated on the basis of their overall performance during the semester including their attendance, discipline, participation besides academic pursuits. In summary, a participant would be evaluated as follows; Class Participation: 5% Participants are expected to be present, both physically and mentally, in each and every session and this is contributed towards their final evaluations. Attendance would be called in first 5 minutes of each session and no concession would be given in relaxing these minutes. Discipline should be maintained at all cost and a healthy and conducive participation is always cherished. Quizzes: 15% There would be 5 announced, in-class quizzes in total, out of which best 4 would be considered. No make-up quiz would be arranged for any missing quiz. Assignments: 20% There would be 4 assignments in total. All of these four assignments would be available on the day 1 at Campus Photocopier. Any assignment submitted after due date and time would result in deduction of marks. Exams: There would be TWO exams; one around the middle and the other at the end of the semester. 25% The MID Term Exam would be an in-class test. You are to bring your own stationary and no borrowing is allowed during the test. 35% The FINAL Term Exam, however, providing you with the Answer Sheets but still no borrowing is allowed during the exam. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 Cheating Participants are expected to do their own work in their assignments, quizzes and exams. They are always encouraged to discuss with each other but the assignments, quizzes and exams should be their own work reflecting their own effort and intellect. The School of Business & Economics is VERY STRICT against any action of plagiarism, copying and cheating. So don’t put yourself in any embarrassing position that may mar your career. In summary, any or all of these actions may be taken against you in case of cheating. 1. Zero Point for the assignment/quiz/exam 2. Case would be sent to UMC Committee ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 Topics to be Taught (1) What is Statistics? Objectives: Weight 10% (1 Session) To understand why we study statistics and to explain what is meant by descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. To distinguish among the nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio levels of Measurement. Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shannon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: What is Statistics? Why Study Statistics, What is meant by Statistics, Types of Statistics Fundamental Elements of Statistics, Levels of Measurement. Evaluation: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Assignments: Must 1 Exercising Material: From Recommended Text: Exercises 1, 3, and 5 on page 27; 7, 9, 11, and 13 on page 33-34; 15 and 17 on page 39-40; 19 and 21 on page 43-44 ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods (2) Description and Analysis of Data Objectives: QM-545 Weight 20% (3 Sessions) Organizing qualitative and quantitative data into a frequency table, displaying the data through charts and graphs, describing and exploring data through different numerical measures. Pre-requisites: None Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: Describing Data: Frequency Distributions and Graphic Presentation Constructing a Frequency Distribution, Relative Frequency Distribution, Graphic Presentation of a Frequency Distribution, Other Graphic Presentations of Data, Numerical Measures of Central Location, Population and Sample Mean, Weighted Mean, Geometrics Mean and Its Significance in Business and Economics, Why Study Dispersion, Numerical Measures of Dispersion (Or Variation), Interpretation and Uses of the Standard Deviation, Chebyshev’s Theorem, The Empirical Rule, The Mean and Standard deviation of Grouped Data, Describing Data: Displaying and Exploring Data, Dot Plots, Stem-andLeaf Displays, Other Measures of Dispersion: Quartiles, Deciles and Percentiles, Box Plots, Relative Dispersion, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Must 2, Duration: 15 min. Assignments: Must 1 Exercising Material: From Recommended Text: Exercises 7, 9, and 11 on page 60; 13 and 15 on page 62; 17, 19, 21, and 23 on page 65-66; 25 on page 69; 27, 29, 31, and 33 on page 71; 35, 37, 39 on page 41, 43, and on page 78; 49, 51 on page 81; 53, 55, on page 83. Exercises 19 and 21 on page 43-44; 1, 3, 5, and 7 on page 105; 11 and 13 on page 109-110; 15 and 17 on page 112-113. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 (3) A Survey of Probability Concepts Weight 20% (2 Sessions) Objectives: To describe the classical, empirical, and subjective approaches to probability, why we use probability and how it helps in real business and economics situations for effective decision making. Pre-requisites: None Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: What is a Probability, Approaches to Assigning Probabilities, Some Rules for Computing Probabilities, Conditional Probability, Contingency Tables, Principles of Counting, Probability Distribution, Concept of Random Variable, The Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of Probability Distribution, Concept of Discrete Probability Distribution, Binomial Probability Distribution. How is a Binomial Probability Distribution Computed? Poisson Probability Distribution, The Family of Uniform Distributions, The Family of Normal Probability Distributions, The Standard Normal Distribution, Finding Areas under the Normal Curve, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Must 1, Duration: 15 min. Assignments: Must 1 Exercising Material: From Recommended Text: Exercises 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 on page 146-147; 15, 17, 19 ,and 21 on page 152; 27, and 29 on page 161; 41, 43, and 45 on page 170; 5, 7, 13, 15, 17, 2, 33 and 35 on pages 188, 196, 198-199, 208 respectively; 1, 3, 5, 9, 11, 13, 15, 19, 21, 27, and 29 on pages 226-227, 233, 236-237, 239, and 241 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 (4) Sampling Methods Weight 7.5 % (1 Session) Objectives: To explain why a sample is often the only feasible way to learn something about a population, to describe methods to select a sample. Pre-requisites: None Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: Sampling Methods, Sampling Distribution of the Sampling Mean, The Central Limit Theorem, Using the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean. Evaluation: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Optional, Duration: 15 min. Assignments: Must 1 Exercising Material: From Recommended Text: Exercises 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17 on pages 268, 273, 281, and 285 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods (5) QM-545 Estimation and Confidence Intervals Weight 7.5% (2 Session) Objectives: To understand the concepts of point estimate and level of confidence and their applications in different situations of business and economics. Pre-requisites: Sampling and sampling distribution Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals, A Large Sample Confidence Interval for Population Mean, for Population Proportion, A Small Sample Confidence Interval for Population Mean, Choosing an Appropriate Sample Size, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Exercising Material: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Must 1 Assignments: None From Recommended Text: Exercises 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 27, and 29 on pages 301-302, 309, 312, and 317 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 (6) Hypothesis Testing Objectives: Weight 20% (3 Sessions) To define a hypothesis and to learn how hypothesis testing can be used to verify the claims, and to understand their significance in the field of business and management research. Pre-requisites: All the concepts discussed so for related to inferential statistics Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: What is a Hypothesis?, What is a Hypothesis Testing, OneTailed and Two-Tailed Tests of Significance, Large Sample tests of Hypothesis About Population Mean, Small Sample tests of Hypothesis About Population Mean, Large Sample tests of Hypothesis About Population Proportion, p-Value in Hypothesis Testing, Errors in Hypothesis Testing, TwoSample Tests of Hypothesis: Independent Samples, TwoSample Tests About Proportions, Comparing Population Means with Small Samples, Two-Sample Tests of Hypothesis: Dependent Samples, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Must 1 Assignments: Must 1 Guest Speaker Exercising Material: A guest speaker will be invited to further discuss its use in the field of business and management research. From Recommended Text: Exercises 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 23, and 25 on pages 344, 350, 352-353, and 356 respectively; 3, 5, 9, 11, 15, 17, 19, and 21 on pages 374-375, 379, 384, and 388 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 (7) Goodness-of-FIT Test Objectives: Weight 7.5% (1 Session) To discuss the use and significance of the chi-square distribution in goodness of FIT Test. Pre-requisites: Concepts previously discussed related to hypothesis testing Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: Characteristics of the Chi-Square Distribution, Goodness-ofFit Test: Equal Expected Frequencies, Goodness-of-Fit Test: Unequal Expected Frequencies, Contingency Table Analysis, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Exercising Material: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Optional, Duration: 15 min. Assignments: Optional From Recommended Text: Exercises 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15 on pages 652-653, 657-658, and 662 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT Quantitative Techniques & Methods QM-545 (8) Analysis of Variance Objectives: Weight 7.5% (1 Session) To discuss the general idea of analysis of variance, to conduct a test of hypothesis to determine whether the variances and mean of two populations are equal, its use in business and management research. Pre-requisites: All the concepts related to hypothesis testing Text Recommended: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition) By: Doulas A. Lind and William G. Marchal References: 1-Essentials of Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Excel: By Anderson and Sweeny (3rd Edition) 2-Business Statistics: By Groebner, Shenon, and Fry (7th Edition) Topics: Characteristics of F-Distribution, Comparing Two Population Variances, Comparing Means of Two or More Populations, Use of SPSS. Evaluation: Exercising Material: Criterion: Min. Req. Num. Accuracy: 60% Quizzes: Must 1 Assignments: Must 1 From Recommended Text: Exercises 1,3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13 on pages 412, 421-422, and 425 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________ School of Business & Economics UMT