DATE: August 26, 2015
ISSUE SUMMARY: Annual Population Estimates
FROM: Richard Oden, Chair, Community Resources Committee
IMPORTANCE:
The Atlanta Regional Commission annually produces population estimates for major jurisdictions in the
Atlanta Region. These estimates are the basis for assessing dues for the following year. Under the law
establishing the Atlanta Regional Commission, the estimates and dues calculation must be adopted by the
Commission before the end of August.
METHODOLOGY
The foundation for these population estimates is the 2010 United States Census. Census counts of housing
units are updated to April 1 of the estimate year based on building permit data and previous year estimates.
The updated permit trends are translated into population change based on observed year 2010 average
occupancy rates and household sizes adjusted for best available current information from field surveys, the
United States Postal Service, and school enrollment data. The estimates derived from the assessment of
building permits are further refined by consideration of birth, death, and migration data from the U.S. Census
Bureau. This additional data is used in a demographic accounting equation estimates model that was
calibrated by the Carl Vinson Institute of Government. Attached is:

A proposed resolution adopting the April 1, 2015 estimates.

A table detailing the calculation of the appropriation due from each political jurisdiction
in the year 2016.

A table detailing the April 1, 2015 estimates and comparing them with data for earlier
years.
ACTION REQUIRED: Recommended Board Adoption.
Page 1 of 4
RESOLUTION BY THE ATLANTA REGIONAL COMMISSION
APPROVING ANNUAL POPULATION ESTIMATES
WHEREAS, under Subsection (b) of Georgia Code Section 50-8-101, as amended, the Atlanta Regional
Commission is required to prepare annual estimates of the population of each county within the Area and
the City of Atlanta as the basis for determining the operating funds which each county and the City of
Atlanta will provide the Commission in the calendar year next following the year in which the estimates
were made; and
WHEREAS, Subsection (c) of Georgia Code Section 50-8-101 requires that after the first day of April but
before the first day of September of each year the Atlanta Regional Commission shall make the necessary
population estimates and compute the amount due from the governing body of each political subdivision
in accordance with a formula set forth in Subsection (b) of Georgia Code Section 50-8-101 and certify such
population estimates and other data to each such governing body; and
WHEREAS, the staff of the Atlanta Regional Commission has prepared population estimates based on the
analysis of a variety of social and economic measures and calculated the amount due from the governing
body of each political subdivision as set forth in the attached table;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Atlanta Regional Commission hereby approves the
April 1, 2015, population estimates and computations set forth in the attached tables and authorizes the
Director to certify them to the governing bodies as required by law.
Page 2 of 4
Average
Annual
Change
19902000
Average
Annual
Change
20002010
Average
Change
Persons
20102015
Annual
2010-14
Percent
1990
Census
2000
Census
2010
Census
2015 ARC
Estimate
2,557,800
91,000
184,100
453,400
553,800
3,429,379
141,903
236,517
607,751
665,865
4,107,750
214,346
259,424
688,078
691,893
4,332,600
233,300
266,900
727,600
718,400
87,158
5,090
5,242
15,435
11,207
67,837
7,244
2,291
8,033
2,603
44,970
3,791
1,495
7,904
5,301
1.1
1.7
0.6
1.1
0.8
Douglas
Fayette
Fulton
Gwinnett
Henry
Rockdale
71,700
62,800
670,800
356,500
59,200
54,500
92,174
91,263
816,006
588,448
119,341
70,111
132,403
106,567
920,581
805,321
203,922
85,215
137,400
110,700
970,400
859,800
218,700
89,400
2,047
2,846
14,521
23,195
6,014
1,561
4,023
1,530
10,458
21,687
8,458
1,510
999
827
9,964
10,896
2,956
837
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.0
City of Atlanta
in DeKalb
in Fulton
415,200
35,300
379,900
416,474
29,775
386,699
420,003
28,292
391,711
431,700
29,250
402,450
127
-553
680
353
-148
501
2,339
192
2,148
0.6
0.7
0.5
Atlanta Region
Cherokee
Clayton
Cobb
DeKalb
Page 3 of 4
Draft for Adoption
POPULATION ESTIMATE AND APPROPRIATION
DUE BY POLITICAL JURISDICTION
Political Subdivision
Estimated
Population
4/1/2015
Formula for Fiscal Support of
Regional Planning
Appropriation Due
for 2016 Budget
Cherokee County
233,300
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$235,300
Clayton County
266,900
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$268,900
Cobb County
727,600
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$729,600
City of Atlanta
29,250
$.40 per capita
$11,700
Outside Atlanta
689,150
$1.00 per capita
$689,150
DeKalb County
DeKalb County Total
plus $2,000
$702,850
Douglas County
137,400
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$139,400
Fayette County
110,700
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$112,700
Fulton County
$1.00 per capita
City of Atlanta
402,450
$.40 per capita
$160,980
Outside Atlanta
567,950
$1.00 per capita
$567,950
Fulton County Total
plus $2,000
$730,930
Gwinnett County
859,800
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$861,800
Henry County
218,700
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$220,700
89,400
$1.00 per capita
plus $2,000
$91,400
431,700
$.60 per capita
plus $2,000
$261,020
Rockdale County
City of Atlanta
Total
4,332,600
Page 4 of 4
$4,354,600