University of Wisconsin 2014-15
Listing of Candidates by Field
X = Primary, O = Secondary
Candidate
References
Major Professor
Applied Microeconomics
Econometrics
Industrial
Organization
International
Labor
Macro-economics
Public
Theory
Other
O-Health Economics
O-Consumer Finance
X
Batty, Michael
John Karl Scholz
Collins, Taber
Chen,Chih-Yi Jinny
Randall Wright
Fukushima, Julien, Luque
Cheung, Man Wah
William Sandholm
Rostek, Penta
Conkling, Thomas S.
Alan Sorensen
Hendricks, Gandhi
Friedman, Matthew
Steven Durlauf
Scholz, Gregory, Kelly
Gaulke, Amanda
Christopher Taber
Scholz, Fu
Gollu, Guiltekin
Barbara Wolfe
Taber, Gregory, Bilir
Han, Han
Randall Wright
Corbae, Fukushima
Ippolito, Benedic Nicholas
John Karl Scholz
Taber, Mullahy
Jacobs, Lindsay
James Walker
Kennan, Taber, Weretka
X
Li, Yi
Christopher Taber
Kennan, Seshadri
X
X
X
X
X
O
O
O
O-Regulatory Policy
O
O-Law & Economics
X
O-Economics of Education
X
O-Health Economics
O-Money and Banking
O-Finance
X
X
O
Lin, Hsuan-Chih (Luke)
Noah Williams
Staiger, Kennan, Corbae
Lin, Tzu-Chi
Bruce Hansen
Shi, West
X
Lu, Zhentong
Amit Gandhi
Shi, Hendricks, Sorensen
O
Lunsford,Kurt G.
Kenneth D. West
Corbae, Engel
Monahova, Gabriella
Alan Sorensen
Hendricks, Gandhi, Kelly
Morey, Mitchell
Robert Staiger
Schechter, Bilir
Nakajima, Kayuna
John Kennan
Lentz, Taber, Roys
O
Reynolds, Christopher
John Karl Scholz
Taber, Gregory, Kelly
O
Sandoval Gutierrez, Hector H. Steven Durlauf
Walker, Gregory
X
Su, Hsuan-Li (Shane)
Steven Durlauf
Atalay, Corbae, West
Syrda, Joanne
Kenneth Hendricks
Sorensen, Gandhi, Eudey
O
Tao, Jing
Jack Porter
Hansen, Shi
O
Udalova, Victoria
John Karl Scholz
Taber, Fletcher, Grainger
X
Wang, Haomin
John Kennan
Lentz, Roys
O
X
Yavuzoglu, Berk
John Kennan
Walker, Lentz
O
X
Zapryanova, Mariyana
Steven Durlauf
Scholz, Gregory, Sorensen
O
O
O-Search Theory
O-Monetary Economics
Evolutionary Game Theory
Game Theory
Microeconomic Theory
O - Health Economics
O-Health and Aging
O-Applied Econometrics
O
O-Applied Econometrics
X
O-Dynamic Contracting
O-International Trade
O
O-Development Economics
X
O-Monetary Economics
O-Applied Time Series Econometrics
X
O-Health Economics
O-Illegal Markets
X
O
X-Development
X
X
O-Urban Economics
O-Social Interactions
O-Development Economics
O-Financial Economics
O-Networks
X
X
X
X-Econometric Theory
O
O-Health Economics
O
O
X
O-Law and Economics
O-Health Economics
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME: Michael Batty
Citizenship: USA
Address:
Dept. of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Phone: (763) 458-9256
E-mail: mbatty@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/a/wisc.edu/mbatty/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, UW-Madison, 2015 (Expected)
M.S. in Economics, UW-Madison, 2012
S.B. in Management (Finance), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005
Professional Credentials: Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, 2008
Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst, 2008
Dissertation Title:
Essays on Health Economics and Consumer Finance
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation is a collection of work in health economics and household
finance. In the first chapter, I study how healthcare providers alter the quantity
and quality of care they deliver after limitations are placed on how much they
can charge uninsured patients. In the second chapter, I examine trends and
potential explanations for the extreme variation that exists among list prices for
services at different hospitals. In the third chapter, I assess retirement
preparedness by comparing the wealth accumulation of successive generations
of Americans. In the fourth chapter, I study the effects of financial education
delivered to elementary students through a randomized experiment.
References:
John Karl Scholz (Primary Advisor) – jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
J. Michael Collins (UW Center for Financial Security) – jmcollins@wisc.edu
Chris Taber – ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“How do Financial Incentives affect Hospital Care and Health Outcomes?
Evidence from Fair Pricing Laws” (Job Market Paper, with Benedic Ippolito)
“Mystery of the Chargemaster: Examining Variation in Hospital List Prices”
(with Benedic Ippolito)
“Not Your Father's Retirement?”
“Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Financial Education on Elementary
Students' Knowledge, Behavior, and Attitudes” (revised and resubmitted to
the Journal of Consumer Affairs, with J. Michael Collins and Elizabeth
Odders-White)
Experience:
Research Assistant, UW Center for Financial Security, 2012-Present
UW Health-Economics Research Collaboration, 2013-2014
Senior Consultant (Actuarial), Deloitte Consulting, 2005-2010
Teaching Experience:
Graduate Microeconomics (2011), Intermediate Microeconomics (2012)
Fields of Interest:
Applied Microeconomics, Health Economics, Consumer Finance
Essays on Health Economics and Consumer Finance
Dissertation Abstract
Michael Batty
University of Wisconsin-Madison
How do Financial Incentives affect Hospital Care and Health Outcomes? Evidence from Fair
Pricing Laws (with Benedic Ippolito)
It is often assumed that the financial incentives of healthcare providers affect the care they deliver, but this issue
is surprisingly difficult to study. Recently enacted state laws that limit how much hospitals can charge uninsured
patients provide a unique opportunity. Unlike most other studies where the financial incentives of providers and
patients are aligned, these policies create opposing incentives for the delivery of care. Using panel data from the
Nationwide Inpatient Sample in an event study framework, we examine whether these regulations lead to
reductions in the amount and quality of care given to uninsured patients. We find that the introduction of a fair
pricing law leads to a seven to ten percent reduction in average length of stay for uninsured patients, with a
similar decline in total charges per stay. Although the longer-term effects of these care reductions are uncertain,
they are not accompanied by worsening of short-term measures of the quality of inpatient care (as measured
using AHRQ quality indicators). Overall, our results provide strong evidence that hospitals actively alter their
behavior in response to financial incentives, and are consistent with FPLs promoting a shift towards more
efficient care delivery.
Mystery of the Chargemaster: Examining Variation in Hospital List Prices (with Benedic Ippolito)
The typical list price for a hospital service is more than three times what they will be paid by an average patient.
However, many uninsured and out-of-network patients do pay list price. We know different hospitals charge
widely different prices for the same service, but we have little systematic knowledge of how prices vary. This
paper documents patterns in hospital prices, and explores several potential explanations. We find that relative
prices vary much more across hospitals than within, and geography explains little of the overall variation.
Further, we find that large, urban, well-equipped, teaching, and for-profit hospitals have higher list prices. The
price variation cannot be explained by care quality, nor is it consistent with hospitals attempting to extract higher
payments from wealthier uninsured patients.
Not Your Father's Retirement?
Many researchers, policy makers, and members of the financial sector worry that Americans are not saving
adequately for retirement. However, it is difficult to agree upon what constitutes adequate savings. This paper
combines data from the Retirement History Study (RHS) and Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare
wealth accumulation patterns of different cohorts of Americans born in the first half of the 20th century. As
opposed to a subjective standard of savings adequacy, this comparative standard frames the retirement prospects
of future and recent retirees in terms of the documented retirement experiences of older generations. Contrary to
common perception, I find that the wealth accumulation of Americans nearing and entering retirement today is
very similar to that of older generations.
Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Financial Education on Elementary Students' Knowledge,
Behavior, and Attitudes (with J. Michael Collins and Elizabeth Odders-White)
As the financial landscape for consumers becomes increasingly complex, the importance of financial capability
continues to grow. Although most financial decisions are made by adults, there is a burgeoning interest in
providing financial education to children. We use an experimental design to evaluate a standardized financial
education program delivered to fourth and fifth graders in two different school districts. We find that even a
relatively brief program results in knowledge gains that persist one year later. Students exposed to financial
education also have more positive attitudes about personal finance, and appear more likely to save. The findings
thus constitute strong evidence that younger students can learn financial topics and suggest that improved
attitudes and behaviors may follow well-designed educational interventions.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Chih-Yi Jinny Chen
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Citizenship: Canada
Office: (608) 770-7021
Home: (608) 770-7021
E-mail: cchen99@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/jinnycychen/
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2011
M.F.E, Financial Economics, University of Toronto, 2006
B.Sc.(Hons), Actuarial Science, University of Toronto, 2004
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays on Price Determination with Search Frictions
Abstract Summary:
The fist essay studies the relationship between the rental cost and purchase
price of housing. Because of the search friction and cost associated with the
purchase/sale housing market, the rent-to-purchase-price ratio is higher in cities
where the probability of relocation is high. The second essay studies the effect
of international circulation of multiple currencies on prices, exchange rates and
optimal money supply. Multiple equilibria can arise and there exists an
equilibrium where the two currencies serve as perfect substitutes for each other
when the countries are similar enough. Under such equilibrium, all equilibrium
allocations depend solely on the total money stock and the optimal quantity of
money supply will be implemented as the governments choose their money
supplies separately to maximize the welfare of their own citizens. The third
chapter investigates how advertising can affect the price distribution and what
percentage of the total sales is comprised of the advertising cost.
References:
Randall Wright (Primary Advisor) – rwright@bus.wisc.edu
Kenichi Fukushima - kfukushi@ssc.wisc.edu
Benoit Julien - benoit.julien@unsw.edu.au
Jaime Luque - jluque@bus.wisc.edu
Papers:
"International Currency and Foreign Exchange Markets" (Job Market Paper)
"A Three-City Model of Migration and Housing Markets"
"The Cost of Advertising and the Effect on Price Distributions"
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant at UW-Madison
Principles of Microeconomics (3 times)
Intermediate Macroeconomics Theory
Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Search Theory and Monetary Economics
Three Essays on Price Determination with Search Frictions
Dissertation Abstract
Chih-Yi Jinny Chen
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1: A Three -City Model of Migration and Housing Markets
This chapter studies the disparity in the rent-to-purchase-price ratios across US cities and
hypothesizes that the varying degrees of mobility or migration rates among those cities
contribute to such disparity. A model is developed where cities are endowed with varying
rates of mobility and that agents must choose between renting or participating in the
purchase/sale housing market upon entering a new city. It is found that stationary
equilibrium can only be supported in the case where the buyer's bargaining power is greater
than zero and less than one and that search intensity and market participation are
endogenously determined in equilibrium. The model illustrates that, relative to the rental
payment, it will be more expensive to purchase housing in a city where the out-bound
mobility rate is low.
Chapter 2: International Currency and Foreign Exchange Markets
(Job market paper)
This chapter investigates the effects of the circulation of multiple international currencies
on prices, exchange rates and monetary policy. The model builds upon the two-country,
two-currency framework in Trejos and Wright (2001), where agents of either country can
meet at various rates depending on their nationalities. Following the decentralized market
(DM), agents in this model enter their separate home centralized markets (CMH ) to
produce and consume home-specific goods, and rebalance their currency holdings.
Multiple stationary equilibria can arise and, in particular, there will always be an
equilibrium where the nominal exchange rate equals one, given that the two countries are
not too asymmetrical. Even though currencies are treated as perfect substitutes by the
agents in this equilibrium, how much a currency is worth in terms of CM goods differs
across the two countries and hence the real exchange rate is not one. Moreover, the value
of each currency and the gain from each type of DM trade depends on the total stock of
money circulating across the two economies. The governments of the two countries will
always implement the overall welfare-maximizing quantity of money as a result of their
non-cooperative decisions to maximize the welfare of their own citizens. This is the same
outcome as what would arise under a currency union with a single issuing authority.
Chapter 3: The Cost of Advertising and the Effect on Price Distributions
This chapter aims to study how the availability of advertising service can affect the price
distribution and what fraction of the total sales is comprised of the advertising expenditure.
Even though firms who advertise have a higher probability of reaching their potential
clients, the associated cost leaves them with a disadvantage in price competition. In
equilibrium, firms will be indifferent between whether to advertise and all earn the same
profit.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Man-Wah Cheung
Citizenship: Hong Kong
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin–Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Mobile 1: + 1 608 609 3132
Mobile 2: + 852 6146 6583
E-mail: mcheung4@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/jennymwcheung
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison
2010 - present
M.Phil. in Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
2008 - 10
M.Phil. in Mathematics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
2005 - 07
B.Sc. in Mathematics (First Class Honors), The Chinese University of Hong Kong 2002 - 05
Dissertation Title:
Essays in Continuous-Strategy Evolutionary Dynamics
Abstract Summary:
{see the Thesis Abstract}
References:
William H. Sandholm (Major Professor) - whs@ssc.wisc.edu
Marzena Rostek - mrostek@ssc.wisc.edu
Antonio Penta - apenta@ssc.wisc.edu
Publications:
“Pairwise Comparison Dynamics for Games with Continuous Strategy Space”. Journal of
Economic Theory, 153 (2014), 344–375.
Working Papers:
“Time-Dependent Mutations and Convergence of Empirical Distributions” (with Kam-Chau
Wong). Revise and resubmit, International Journal of Game Theory.
Work in Progress:
“Imitative Dynamics for Continuous Strategy Games”
“An Evolutionary Foundation for Cultural Polarization” (with Jiabin Wu)
“Potential Games with Continuous Strategy Space and Continuous Player Sets”
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant: University of Wisconsin–Madison, Department of Economics Game
Theory, Principles of Microeconomics, Principles of Macroeconomics
Teaching Assistant: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics Game
Theory, Advanced Topics in Microeconomics, Intermediate Microeconomic Theory,
Introductory Econometrics
Teaching Assistant: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Mathematics
Introductory Probability, Numerical Analysis, Mathematics Laboratory I
Fields of Interest:
Evolutionary Game Theory, Game Theory, Microeconomic Theory
Essays in Continuous-Strategy Evolutionary Dynamics
Dissertation Abstract
Man-Wah Cheung
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Paper 1: Pairwise Comparison Dynamics for Games with Continuous Strategy Space
This paper studies pairwise comparison dynamics for population games with continuous
strategy space. We show that the pairwise comparison dynamic is well-defined if certain mild
Lipschitz continuity conditions are satisfied. We establish Nash stationarity and positive
correlation for pairwise comparison dynamics. Finally, we prove global convergence and local
stability under general deterministic evolutionary dynamics in potential games, and global
asymptotic stability under pairwise comparison dynamics in contractive games.
Paper 2: Imitative Dynamics for Continuous Strategy Games
This paper studies imitative dynamics for population games with continuous strategy space. We
define imitative dynamics – which include the replicator dynamic as a special case – as
evolutionary game dynamics that satisfy the imitative property and payoff monotonicity. We show
that imitative dynamics are well-defined if certain mild Lipschitz continuity conditions are
satisfied. We show that all imitative dynamics satisfy positive correlation, and characterize the rest
points of imitative dynamics. Finally, we provide global convergence and local stability results for
imitative dynamics in potential games.
Paper 3: An Evolutionary Foundation for Cultural Polarization (with Jiabin Wu)
This paper proposes a model of cultural evolution on continuous trait space. The evolutionary
dynamic is generated by both an inter-generational cultural transmission process and an intragenerational “self-persuasion” process. An agent’s cultural distaste towards a trait is an increasing
function of cultural distance – the distance between the trait and his own trait in the continuous
trait space. This reasonable assumption is captured most easily using continuous trait models. We
find that the evolutionary dynamic gives rise to a rich set of cultural phenomena given different
cultural distaste patterns. In particular, in the case of pure distaste of distance, i.e., agents dislike
cultural traits that are further away from their own traits more, the most extremely polarized state
is globally asymptotically stable. Therefore, our model provides a theoretical explanation for
cultural polarization.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Thomas S. Conkling
Citizenship: United States
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (814) 321-4210
E-mail: tconkling@wisc.edu
http://tomconkling.wordpress.com/
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, (expected 2015)
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2012)
B.S., Computer Science, Economics, Pennsylvania State University (2010)
Dissertation Title:
Competition and Oversight in Subsidized Markets
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation focuses on markets in which firms compete to provide
government-funded benefits or services to individuals. Through the study of a
specific federal program, Lifeline, I show how program efficiency and outcomes
depend on competition and regulatory oversight. The first chapter documents
how oversight influences both the composition of providers entering a market,
and their post-entry behavior. Oversight generates a selection effect on the
heterogeneous potential entrants, which drives the large state-level differences
in waste and inefficiency. The second chapter addresses whether the program
achieved its goals of promoting universal service, and to what extent it crowded
out spending in the unsubsidized market segment.
References:
Alan Sorensen (Major Professor) - sorensen@ssc.wisc.edu
Ken Hendricks - hendrick@ssc.wisc.edu
Amit Gandhi - agandhi@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Regulatory Oversight and Entry Decisions in Subsidized Markets: the Federal
Lifeline Program,” Job Market Paper, UW-Madison (2014)
“Crowdout and Enrollment in the Federal Lifeline Program,” UW-Madison
(2014)
Teaching Experience:
Head Teaching Assistant –
Principles of Microeconomics (2014)
Teaching Assistant –
Behavioral Economics (2013)
Principles of Macroeconomics (2012)
Principles of Microeconomics (2011)
Research Experience:
Project Assistant – Alan Sorensen, UW-Madison (2012)
Fields of Interest:
Industrial Organization, Public Economics, Regulatory Policy
Competition and Oversight in Subsidized Markets
Dissertation Abstract
Thomas S. Conkling
University of Wisconsin - Madison
My dissertation focuses on markets in which firms compete to provide government-funded benefits or
services to individuals. Through the study of a specific federal program, Lifeline, I show how program
efficiency and outcomes depend on competition and regulatory oversight. Lifeline subsidizes phone service
for low-income households, and its state-level variation in regulatory environments makes for an ideal test
case of firm responses to oversight. The first chapter documents how oversight influences both the
composition of providers entering a market, and their post-entry behavior. The second chapter addresses
whether the program achieved its goals of promoting universal service, and to what extent it crowded out
spending on unsubsidized wireless providers.
Regulatory Oversight and Entry Decisions in Subsidized Markets: the Federal Lifeline Program
In the first chapter, I study the effects of competition and oversight on firm behavior in the Lifeline market.
The program was expanded in 2008, allowing entry by numerous low-cost wireless service providers. This
expansion led to huge increases in enrollment, but also strong anecdotal evidence of waste and fraud. I
provide evidence of substantial heterogeneity between providers, in both the quality of service offered and
compliance with program rules. Firms with low quality and compliance select into markets with lax
oversight, and their entry drives the large state-level differences in waste and inefficiency. These
characteristics are revealed through a one-time reform of the program, imposing uniform oversight across
states. The reform reveals that the behavior of a given firm is relatively fixed across markets, and that the
most substantial variation is across firms. Based on these findings, I estimate a model of firms’ enrollment
process and entry decisions, which depend on competition and oversight. In counterfactual exercises, I
quantify how tighter oversight decreases the level of waste, but also leads to fewer eligible enrollments.
This trade-off depends on the effects through the margin of entry. The evidence of these dynamics is
presented for the Lifeline program, but the patterns are likely to exist in many other markets for subsidized
products and services. As a result, the selection effect of oversight on heterogeneous firms will be of great
importance in designing cost-effective privatization efforts and subsidy programs.
Crowdout and Enrollment in the Federal Lifeline Program
In the second chapter, I evaluate the extent to which the Lifeline program increased access to telephone
services, as well as any crowdout effects on the unsubsidized wireless market. The stated goal of the Lifeline
program is to promote universal and affordable access to phone services. The previous literature has found
only small increases in household access to phones due to the program, which leaves a bit of a puzzle of
how Lifeline fits into the broader market. To address this question, I exploit state-level variation in the
timing of Lifeline’s expansion to measure the program’s effect on household phone spending. Using data
from the American Community Survey and Consumer Expenditure Survey, I find negligible effects on
phone access, but a sizable reduction in wireless spending due to the availability of free Lifeline phones.
This suggests that beneficiaries use Lifeline phones to supplement another unsubsidized service line, or
would have purchased service anyway in the absence of the program. Thus crowdout effects appear strong,
but the welfare impact is ambiguous due to qualitative evidence that Lifeline recipients receive higher
service quality than they would have under unsubsidized plans.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Matthew Friedman
Citizenship: United States
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Phone: (303) 898-9111
E-mail: mlfriedman@wisc.edu
http://ssc.wisc.edu/~mfriedma/
Degrees:
Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
B.A. Economics, University of Colorado-Boulder, 2006
B.A. Broadcast Journalism, University of Colorado-Boulder, 2006
Dissertation Title:
"Essays on Empirical Microeconomics"
Abstract Summary:
In the first chapter of my dissertation I develop a model and empirical tests to
determine if police exhibit racial preferences as well as whether suspected
criminals' responses to police interdiction vary across race. This framework is
then applied to data generated by the New York Police Department's Stop,
Question & Frisk program. The concomitant analysis finds evidence consistent
with both racially biased policing and racially differentiated suspect responses.
In the second chapter I employ a hedonic model of real-estate prices to determine
whether New York City property-owners value intensive policing regimes. The
third chapter explores the relationship between prices and trader expectations in
prediction markets.
References:
Steven N. Durlauf (Major Advisor) - sdurlauf@ssc.wisc.edu
John Karl Scholz - jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
Jesse Gregory - jmgregory@ssc.wisc.edu
Elizabeth Kelly (Teaching) - eskelly@wisc.edu
Papers:
"Spatial Tests for Racial Bias in the NYPD's Stop, Question and Frisk Program"
(Job Market Paper, 2014)
“Valuing Proactive Policing: A Hedonic Model of Housing Prices using
Interpolated Data” (2012)
“Prediction Market Efficiency and Information Aggregation in U.S. Elections”
with Arik Roginsky (In Progress)
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant at UW-Madison:
Principles of Microeconomics (4 semesters)
Principles of Macroeconomics (1 semester)
Intermediate Microeconomics (3 semesters)
Analytical Public Finance (1 semester)
Adjunct Faculty/Instructor:
Analytical Public Finance, UW - Madison (1 semester)
Economic Analysis for Managers, Chaminade University (1 semester)
Fields of Interest:
Applied Microeconomics, Public Economics, Law & Economics
Essays on Empirical Microeconomics
Dissertation Abstract
Matthew L. Friedman
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Chapter 1: Spatial Tests for Racial Bias in the NYPD's Stop, Question & Frisk Program
This paper introduces a model that allows investigators to determine whether police officers exhibit tastebased racial bias when selecting suspects for interdiction, as well as whether suspect responses to police
interdiction vary by race. Using data provided by the New York Police Department I estimate that
African-American suspects are less likely than their white counterparts to be found in possession of
contraband when searched by police. This finding is robust to alternative modeling assumptions and is
consistent with racially biased policing within my model. In a novel result, this paper also identifies
suspect responses to interrogation as a previously unresearched channel through which racial preferences
can diminish police efficiency. I offer evidence that the relative (to Caucasians) probability that police
recover contraband from an African-American suspect diminishes with spatial proximity to areas where
African-Americans are stopped most intensively. My paper shows this finding to be consistent with
racially-differentiated suspect responses to intensive policing, making it the first to positively associate
racial disparities in policing intensity with differential suspect behavior.
Chapter 2: Valuing Proactive Policing: A Hedonic Model of Housing Prices using Interpolated Data
In this chapter I estimate the private value of a public good: proactive policing. My paper tests whether
housing values respond to policing intensity, while controlling for reported crime. To do so I compile a
geo-spatially detailed repeated cross-sectional dataset of real-estate sale prices in New York City from
2005-2013. It includes an extensive collection of covariates that include property attributes, reported
crimes, emergency service requests, school quality and exhaustive records of law-enforcement encounters
with suspects that were not motivated by a call for service (proactive policing). I then leverage spatial
discontinuities in policing intensity along precinct borders to identify the effect of intensive policing on
real-estate values. In multiple specifications I find that police contacts with criminal suspects that occur
independent of a reported crime have a negligible to slightly negative effect on housing prices, indicating
residents place little value on the deterrent effect of proactive policing.
Chapter 3: Prediction Market Efficiency and Information Aggregation in U.S. Elections
Prediction markets allow participants to trade contingent commodities that assume values based on the
binary outcome of an uncertain event. This chapter is an empirical investigation of the relationships
between price, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and trader profits in prediction markets related to the
outcome of U.S. elections. The purpose of this investigation is to determine whether the prices of these
state-contingent securities effectively aggregate all publicly available information and, accordingly,
whether they can be interrupted as the probability of an event's occurrence. Using trader-level data
generated by Intrade (previously a leading prediction market) during the past three presidential elections,
we show that bid-ask spreads negatively correlate to the number of active traders independent of volume.
This finding, as well as our failure to reject the null hypothesis that the Democrat and Republican
candidates' price histories are cointegrated, are interpreted as evidence that beliefs converge toward a
common posterior probability.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Amanda P. Gaulke
Citizenship: USA
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive #7226
Madison, WI 53706
Office: No office phone
Cell: (262)385-1471
E-mail: gaulke@wisc.edu
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~agaulke/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. in Economics. University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
Minor in Education Sciences (met IES requirements), 2012
B.A. in Economics (Honors) and Spanish, Lake Forest College, 2009
Dissertation Title:
Essays on Enrollment and Persistence in Higher Education
Abstract Summary:
In the first essay, I first establish some stylized facts related to taking time off
from college, or stopping out. A model is estimated to determine the effect of
credit constraints on stopping out. The second essay uses state variation in
tuition policies for undocumented immigrants to test how these laws affect the
composition of student bodies. There is no clear evidence of native students
being crowded out by undocumented immigrants in college. The third essay
explores students enrolling in certificate or training programs after completing a
BA degree.
References:
Chris Taber (Main Advisor) - ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
John Karl Scholz - Jkscholz@wisc.edu
Chao Fu – cfu@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Stopping out of College: The Role of Credit Constraints”
“Does In-State Tuition for Undocumented Immigrants Change the Student
Composition in Postsecondary Education?”
“BA Degree Completion and Enrollment in Less-than-Two-Year Programs”
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Business Learning Center, 2010-2011
Economics 102 (fall), Economics 101 (spring) for Eudey
Teaching Assistant, Department of Economics, 2009-2010
Economics 101 for K. Hansen, Gandhi
Fields of Interest:
Public Economics, Labor Economics, Economics of Education
Essays on Enrollment and Persistence in Higher Education
Dissertation Abstract
Amanda P. Gaulke
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1: “Stopping out of College: The Role of Credit Constraints”
Stopping out, or taking a break during college, is quite common. Using the National Longitudinal Study
of Youth-1997 restricted access data, this paper first documents some stylized facts. These include the
frequency of stopout, how stopouts compare with other students, consequences of stopouts and potential
explanations for stopout. In the weighted sample of individuals who attended at least one semester of
college, twenty nine percent stopout at some point. Overall, stopouts appear to be more disadvantaged than
students who continuously enroll. For example, stopouts are less likely to have a parent who attended
college, are less likely to be white or Asian, and are from families with lower household net worth in the
1997 survey. Students who stopout are more likely to start college at a two-year institution. I do not find
evidence supporting a correlation between stopping out and worse labor market outcomes. If students are
credit constrained they might need to stop enrolling in college temporarily in order to accumulate money
to pay for school. This paper estimates the extent to which stopout behavior would be reduced if federal
program loan limits were increased by $500 per semester. To better reflect loan rules student actually face,
loan limits are a function of individual limits (financial need) and program limits. Ignoring individual limits
neglects a non-trivial amount of students who would mistakenly be categorized as not borrowing the
maximum loan available. The dynamic structural model of college enrollment and savings decisions
indicates that increasing the program limits would not eliminate stopout.
Chapter 2: “Does In-State Tuition for Undocumented Immigrants Change the Student
Composition in Postsecondary Education?”
I test whether laws allowing undocumented immigrants to pay in-state tuition lead to crowding out of native
students in the first year undergraduate student body using difference-in-differences. Identification comes
from variation in when and whether states pass such laws and assumes implementation is exogenous. Due
to difficulties identifying undocumented immigrants in the data, a proxy of non-resident alien is used.
Estimates are allowed to differ in Texas and in California while the other states with similar laws are
combined into one group due to issues of power. In the other states there is no significant increase in
enrollment of non-resident aliens and thus no potential for crowding out. There is no crowding out in Texas.
Even though non-resident aliens increase their enrollment at Texas two-year public schools, schools in
Texas increase their total enrollment. The results are less clear in California. There is a decrease in Hispanic
males at four-year public schools, which is the sector in which non-resident aliens and whites increase their
enrollment. It is possible that the decrease in Hispanic males is due to differences in how this group
categorizes themselves before and after the law was passed.
Chapter 3: “BA Degree Completion and Enrollment in Less-than-Two-Year Programs”
Using the National Longitudinal Study of Youth-1997 I find that nine percent of BA recipients later enroll
in a less-than-two-year program. Less-than-two-year programs include business/secretarial, vocational
programs, technical programs, trade programs or correspondence programs. I am interested in why so many
BA completers are later enrolling in less-than-two-year programs. These types of programs may be
preferable to a graduate degree since they are shorter and can be cheaper. While business management is
the most popular major for both students who do and do not later enroll in less than two year programs, fine
and applied arts and communications are more popular among those who later enroll in less-than-two-year
programs. It could be the case that students who selected majors without regard for potential returns in the
labor market find themselves unable to find employment in their fields or find jobs that pay high enough
wages to live comfortably. Thus, students with BA degrees may need to get another degree in order to be
more successful in the labor market.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Gultekin Gollu
Citizenship: Turkey
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Office: (608) 263 2327
Home:
(608) 772 6883
E-mail: gollu@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/gultekingollu/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected June, 2015
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
M.A. in Economics, Bogazici University, 2009
B.A. in Economics, Sabanci University, 2006
Dissertation Title:
Essays in Health Economics
Abstract Summary:
My thesis explores three important issues in health economics. Chapter one
utilizes a recent policy change under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). I find that
extending parental insurance coverage to young adults decreases employment of
the targeted group heterogeneously with larger effects for higher socio-economic
classes. The second chapter uses early state-based Medicaid expansions to
examine whether public health coverage affects childless adults’ labor supply. I
find that the policy had no effect on employment. The third chapter investigates
if internet use for health purposes has an effect on patient’s mental health. I find
that higher use of the internet for health purposes improves patient’s mental
health.
References:
Barbara Wolfe (Main Advisor) - bwolfe@wisc.edu
Chris Taber - ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Jesse Gregory - jmgregory@ssc.wisc.edu
L. Kamran Bilir (Teaching) - kbilir@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Effects of Parental Coverage on Young Adult’s Labor Supply: Evidence from
2010 Affordable Care Act” Job Market Paper, 2014
“Effects of Public Insurance Coverage on Childless Adults’ Labor Supply:
Evidence from Early Medicaid Expansions under Affordable Care Act”,
2014
“Effects of Internet Use for Health Purposes on Patient Distress”, 2013
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Public Finance, UW-Madison (2014),
Intermediate Microeconomics, UW-Madison (2011-2012, three semesters)
Teaching Assistant, Game Theory, Econometrics, Isik University (2008-2009)
Teaching Assistant, Statistics, Bogazici University (2006)
Research Experience:
Research Assistant for Marguerite Burns (1/2013 -6/2014)
Fields of Interest:
Health Economics, Public Economics, Labor Economics
Essays in Health Economics
Dissertation Abstract
Gultekin Gollu
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1: Effects of Parental Coverage on Young Adult’s Labor Supply: Evidence from 2010
Affordable Care Act
Historically health insurance in the U.S. has been strongly tied to employment. The literature shows that
health insurance availability is a strong incentive for individuals’ labor supply decisions. One of the major
policy changes under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 was to allow young adults to stay on their
parents’ health insurance plan until the age of 26. Since uninsurance rates among 19-25 years old young
adults is double the overall level, the labor supply effects of a parental coverage extension can be
substantial. This chapter estimates the effect of health insurance expansion on young adults’ employment
choices using data from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. I use a difference in differences model to
estimate the extensive and intensive labor supply effects of this policy change on young adults.
Additionally, I investigate the effects of the policy on self-employment and uninsurance among the
employed. The results suggest that both extensive and intensive labor supply decreased among males,
higher socioeconomic groups, and the unmarried. I find no effect of the policy on self-employment, and a
decrease in uninsurance among the employed. More specifically I find that the policy decreased
employment among 23-25 year-olds by 5%. The policy’s negative effect is larger among 23-25 year-old
men, and is equal to 6%. On the other hand, the effect is not statistically significant among 23-25 year-old
women.
Chapter 2: Effects of Public Insurance Coverage on Childless Adults’ Labor Supply: Evidence from
Early Medicaid Expansions under Affordable Care Act
Availability of public insurance coverage may provide individuals an incentive to reduce their labor supply.
The ACA extends public insurance coverage to childless adults, yet we know very little about the impact
of a public health insurance extension policy on labor supply of childless adults. Using Current Population
Survey data, this chapter investigates labor supply effects of early Medicaid expansions under ACA on
childless adults. The ACA extended public insurance coverage to childless adults in 2014, but a number of
states opted in early, and extended Medicaid before 2014. My paper utilizes this variation across states to
evaluate if the policy change had any effects on childless adults’ employment. I find that the early Medicaid
expansions under the ACA had no effect on employment.
Chapter 3: Effects of Internet Use for Health Purposes on Patient’s Mental Health
This chapter uses data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to analyze if internet use for
health purposes has an effect on patients’ mental health. Over the last decade internet use has become
universal and provides various health related tools and information sources. Patients now search online,
and read news or comments about their health problems, or connect with other patients through online
support groups. Health related distress can have large impacts on quality of life, and the literature has not
addressed the possible impact of internet use on patients’ mental health. I use variation across states’ “right
of way” policies during the broadband boom period of 2001-2005. Using rights of way rules’ easiness as a
proxy for broadband penetration rates, I investigate if patients’ mental health levels changed differently in
states with less strict rights of way rules. I find that internet use improves patient’s mental health. I also
explore heterogeneous effect of internet use on mental health and find that internet use is detrimental to
mental health of people with good overall health.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Han Han
Address:
Citizenship: P. R. China
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Office: (608) 628-6877
Home: (608) 628-6877
E-mail: hhan26@wisc.edu
http://sites.google.com/a/wisc.edu/han-han/
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected May 2015
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, May 2011
M.A., Economics, CCER, Peking University, July 2009
B.S., Physics, Peking University, July 2006
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays on Macro and Monetary Economics
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation examines three different financial markets. The first essay
studies over-the-counter (OTC) markets and the impact of two monetary policies
employed by the Federal Reserve during the Great Recession: changing interest
rate and quantitative easing (QE). The main finding is that, although QE has no
effect when interest rates are low, when interest rates are high, QE will increase
asset prices and lower welfare. The second essay examines the interaction
between Chinese shadow banking and housing markets. Possible bailout costs
are analyzed if there is systematic failure. The third essay examines effects of
lifting restrictions on Chinese rural housing, and measures how much rural urban
wealth inequality can be reduced with this policy change.
References:
Randall Wright (Primary Advisor) - rwright@bus.wisc.edu
Dean Corbae - dcorbae@bus.wisc.edu
Kenichi Fukushima - fukushima@wisc.edu
Papers:
“Over-the-counter markets, middlemen and monetary policy”, Job Market
Paper, UW-Madison, September 2014.
“Chinese shadow banking and housing markets”, UW-Madison,
September 2014.
“Housing liquidity, inflation and rural-urban wealth inequality in China”,
UW- Madison, in progress.
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, UW-Madison: Principles of Microeconomics (4 semesters)
Principles of Macroeconomics (5 semesters).
Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Money and Banking, Finance
Three Essays on Macro and Monetary Economics
Dissertation Abstract
Han Han
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Over-the-counter markets, middlemen and monetary policy (Job Market Paper)
During the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve implemented two monetary policies: cutting interest rates
and quantitative easing (QE). This paper builds a model to study these two monetary policies in a financial
environment with frictions. In this model, agents sell assets to get money when a consumption opportunity
arises, which can only be done through over-the-counter (OTC) markets. In equilibrium, when the interest
rate is low (not necessarily zero), agents who trade in OTC markets achieve their first best consumption,
and QE has no effect on asset pricing. When the interest rate is high, QE will raise asset prices and lower
agents’ consumption. The asset price increase indicates a higher liquidity premium, which reflects
inefficiency.
Chinese shadow banking and housing markets
Recently, there has been growing interest in Chinese shadow banking. The size of the market is large and
increases. However, this rapid growth begins to raise concerns about market risks, since there has been very
limited regulations in this market. Meanwhile, shadow bankers lend enormous funds to the Chinese real
estate industry, which is considered unstable now. We study the interaction between the shadow banking
system and the housing market in China. In this model, housing has two functions. First of all, it provides
utility for occupants. Secondly, it serves as collateral when households need liquidity. Using the model, the
effects of a housing price drop on shadow banking are analyzed, and the possible cost of a bailout is
analyzed if there is systematic failure.
Housing liquidity, inflation and rural-urban wealth inequality in China (in progress)
In the past three decades, rural and urban wealth inequality in China has grown rapidly. The wealth gap
exceeds the huge rural and urban income gap. There is an institutional friction that increases wealth
inequality: the difference in housing liquidity. Chinese peasants are not able to use their houses as collateral
when they need money, while the urban residences do not suffer from this constraint. Inflation will
aggravate the inequality, because peasants cannot get a housing liquidity premium. We study effects of the
government lifting the restriction on rural housing, and measure how much wealth inequality can be reduced
with this policy change.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Benedic N. Ippolito
Citizenship: USA
Address:
Department of Economics
Cell: (202) 557-8383
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
E-mail: bippolito@wisc.edu
Madison, WI 53706
http://sites.google.com/site/benedicippolito/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Expected 2015)
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2012)
B.A. in Mathematics/Economics, Emory University (2010)
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays on Public Economics
Abstract Summary:
The first paper investigates how financial incentives impact the quantity and
quality of health care delivered by hospitals. The paper finds that state laws
which limit how much hospitals can collect from uninsured patients lead to
reductions in the amount of care given to these patients, but with no measurable
deterioration in quality metrics. The second paper shows how the health
characteristics of older workers influences their response to retirement incentives
imbedded in health insurance contracts. In the third paper we examine trends
and potential explanations for the marked variation in hospital list prices.
References:
John Karl Scholz (Major Professor) – jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
Chris Taber – ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
John Mullahy – jmullahy@wisc.edu
Papers:
“How Do Financial Incentives Affect Hospital Care and Health Outcomes?
Evidence from Fair Pricing Laws” (with Michael Batty), Job Market
Paper, UW-Madison, September 2014.
“The Selection Effects of Tied Health Insurance Contracts,” UW-Madison,
September 2013.
“Unraveling the Chargemaster: Examining Variations in Hospital List
Pricing,” (with Michael Batty), UW-Madison, September 2014.
Teaching Experience:
Project Teaching Assistant, Econ 548: The Economics of Health Care (2014)
Research Experience:
NIMH Trainee in Health Economics, UW-Madison (2012-)
Co-investigator, UW Health – Health Economics Collaboration (2013-)
Fields of Interest:
Applied Microeconomics, Public Economics, Health Economics
Three Essays on Public Economics
Dissertation Abstract
Benedic N. Ippolito
University of Wisconsin - Madison
How Do Financial Incentives Affect Hospital Care and Health Outcomes? Evidence from Fair
Pricing Laws (with Michael Batty)
It is often assumed that the financial incentives of healthcare providers affect the care they deliver,
but this issue is surprisingly difficult to study. Recently enacted state laws that limit how much hospitals
can charge uninsured patients provide a unique opportunity. Unlike many other studies where the financial
incentives of providers and patients are aligned, these policies create opposing incentives for the delivery
of care. Using panel data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample in an event study framework, we examine
whether these regulations lead to reductions in the amount and quality of care given to uninsured patients.
We find that the introduction of a fair pricing law leads to a seven to ten percent reduction in average length
of stay for uninsured patients, with a similar decline in total charges per stay. Although the longer-term
effects of these care reductions are uncertain, they are not accompanied by worsening of short-term
measures of the quality of inpatient care (as measured using AHRQ quality indicators). Overall, our results
provide strong evidence that hospitals actively alter their behavior in response to financial incentives, and
are consistent with FPLs promoting a shift towards more efficient care delivery.
The Selection Effects of Tied Health Insurance Contracts
Employers typically offer one of two types of health plans: tied contracts (coverage ends at
retirement) or retiree contracts (coverage continues in retirement). In comparison to a retiree plan, a tied
contract provides an obvious incentive to delay retirement, but which workers stay? That is, what are the
health characteristics of workers who respond to the incentives of the tied contract? The literature is
comparatively silent on this point, though some papers suggest that the sickest workers are most likely to
stay because they presumably attach the highest value to health insurance. It seems odd, however, that a
firm would voluntarily institute a contract that delivers such adverse selection. Closer consideration shows
that it is not obvious whether tied contracts should disproportionately attract sickly or healthy workers,
since sickness also affects, and is reflective of, a variety of other factors that influence the retirement
decision (like disutility of work). Empirically I show that, in fact, tied contracts produce advantageous
selection. That is, firms that use tied contracts are successful not only in increasing their retention rate, but
also in improving the health composition of their older workforce. Additionally, I investigate the fact that
tied contracts are consistently found to delay retirement even after age 65 - at which point workers are
eligible for Medicare coverage. I show that this “excess retention” effect is entirely driven by workers with
younger spouses who do not have their own insurance.
Unraveling the Chargemaster: Examining Variations in Hospital List Pricing (with Michael Batty)
The typical list price for a hospital service is more than three times what they will be paid for
treating the average patient. We also see examples of greatly different prices for the same service, but we
have little systematic knowledge of how prices vary, or why this variation exists. This paper documents
patterns in hospital prices, and explores several potential explanations. We find that variation in prices
across hospitals is much greater than within, and geography explains little of the overall variation. Further,
large, urban, well-equipped, teaching, and for-profit hospitals have higher list prices. The price variation
cannot be explained by variation in care quality, nor is it consistent with hospitals attempting to extract
higher payments from wealthier uninsured patients.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Lindsay Jacobs
Citizenship: U.S.A.
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin–Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Office: (608) 609-1254
E-mail: lpjacobs@wisc.edu
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~lpjacobs/
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison, May 2015 (expected)
M.S., Economics, Carnegie Mellon University, May 2008
B.A., Math and Economics, Wittenberg University, May 2006
Dissertation Title:
Dynamic Models of Health and Labor Supply in Later Life
Abstract Summary:
In these essays, I develop and estimate life-cycle models aimed at explaining
various patterns in labor supply behavior at older ages. The first study measures
the extent to which later-life differences in health and disability risks across
occupations affect retirement behavior and how these risks influence initial
career choice. In the second essay, I look at the degree to which the changing
composition of occupations over time—from more to less physically
demanding—has contributed to the increase in labor force participation at older
ages. The final study examines the effects of wage and health transition processes
as well as the role of accrued work-related strain on the labor force participation
decisions of older males, aimed particularly at accounting for the high rates of
“reverse retirement” seen in the data.
References:
James Walker (primary advisor): walker@ssc.wisc.edu
John Kennan: jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
Christopher Taber: ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Marek Weretka (teaching): mweretka@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“An Equilibrium Model of Occupational Choice, Retirement, and the Effects of
Disability Insurance” (job market paper)
“Increasing Labor Force Participation Among Older Males: Can Changes in
Occupational Composition Explain the Trend?”
“Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: The Effects of Earnings, Health, and
Stress” (with Suphanit Piyapromdee)
“Causality in the Health and Income Relationship” (in progress)
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Introductory Macroeconomics, UW–Madison, Fall 2012
Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Microeconomics, UW–Madison, Spring 2013
Research Experience:
Project Assistant, Morgridge Institute for Research (Pharmaceutical
Informatics Group), UW–Madison, Fall 2009–Spring 2012
Fields of Interest:
Labor Economics, Health and Aging, Applied Econometrics
Dynamic Models of Health and Labor Supply in Later Life
Dissertation Abstract
Lindsay Jacobs
University of Wisconsin–Madison
Chapter 1: An Equilibrium Model of Occupational Choice, Retirement, and the Effects of Disability
Insurance (Job Market Paper)
There is much variation in the physical requirements across occupations, giving rise to great differences in laterlife productivity, disability risk, and the value of Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). In this paper, I
look at how such differences across occupations affect career choice as well as the extent to which SSDI, which
insures shocks to productivity due to disability, influences more people to choose physically intense occupations.
Using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS), I estimate a
dynamic model of occupational choice and retirement with equilibrium effects on earnings across occupations.
I document the differences between blue-collar and white-collar occupations in the impact of declining health
and disability on productivity, which affects labor supply in later life and, in the context of a life-cycle model,
influences the occupation decision. Through counterfactual exercises, I show that the additional disability risk
in blue-collar relative to white-collar jobs is equivalent to a reduction of six percentage points in lifetime
consumption and that the absence of SSDI, which insures some of this risk, would be equivalent to, respectively,
a twelve and seven percent reduction in consumption for those in blue- and white-collar jobs. Furthermore, I
find that the presence of SSDI results in three percent more individuals choosing blue-collar occupations, which
is comparable to the effect on occupation selection resulting from an eight-percent increase in blue-collar
earnings. This overall effect, however, is greatly mitigated by the selection of less risk-averse individuals into
blue-collar jobs and the equilibrium effects on wages; earnings for the most risk-averse type would have to be
nearly 28 percent greater to choose blue-collar work in the absence of SSDI.
Chapter 2: Increasing Labor Force Participation Among Older Males: Can Changes in Occupational
Composition Explain the Trend?
The labor force participation of older males has been increasing in the U.S. over the past two decades, reversing
a long trend in declining participation rates spanning most of the twentieth century. In this paper I show the
extent to which these higher participation rates reflect a change in the composition of job types held. In the HRS
survey data, we see that individuals—even those with similar health—in physically demanding occupations
retire sooner and, before exiting, switch to less physically intense jobs. Connecting occupation–effort
relationships in the HRS responses with historical data from the CPS, I decompose the changes in participation
decisions and find that over one third of the recent increase in participation for men over age 65 is due to changes
in job composition, with changes in health, longevity, and education together explaining another 42 percent.
Additionally, I estimate a life-cycle model of labor supply and health in later life to match retirement behavior
to the data, in which the mechanisms generating earlier retirement for those whose jobs require more physical
effort are made explicit. I use this model to approximate the relative effects on labor force participation of
changes in occupational composition, health, and education over time. This exercise suggests that changes in
health and longevity together account for about half of the increase in participation over time, while changes in
occupation contributes to 18 percent. Finally, I use this model to evaluate the disparate effects of increases in
the Social Security Normal Retirement Age on individuals with different occupations and longevity expectations.
Chapter 3: Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: The Effects of Earnings, Health, and Stress (with
Suphanit Piyapromdee)
Partial and reverse retirement are two key behaviors characterizing labor force dynamics for individuals at older
ages, with half working part-time and over a third leaving and later re-entering the labor force. This paper studies
the effects of wage and health transition processes as well as the role of accrued work-related strain on the labor
force decisions of older males. Using measures of stress from the HRS, we propose a stress accumulation and
decumulation process to account for patterns of labor force exit, re-entry, and shifts to part-time work with age.
We develop and estimate a dynamic model of retirement that captures the behavior observed in the data,
incorporating uncertainty in earnings, health, and stress accumulation.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Yi Li
Citizenship: China
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Phone: (608) 695-6992
E-mail: li88@ssc.wisc.edu
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~li88/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected 2015
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2011
M.S. in Economics, Wuhan University, China, 2009
B.A. in Economics and Mathematics, Wuhan University, China, 2007
Dissertation Title:
“Three Essays on Human Capital”
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation consists of three applied econometric papers on human capital.
The first paper examines the inequality in higher education. I argue that, instead
of credit constraints, low income children’s stronger precautionary saving
motives, which are caused by their parents’ less capacity to provide insurance
against college investment risk, impede their educational attainment. The second
paper studies the on-the-job learning. I find that, multiple general skills interpromote each other in the learning process, and lower occupational moving costs
facilitate workers to exploit this inter-promotion and acquire more skills over
their career lives. Finally, I turn to investigate household’s education decisions
in a non-stationary economy, by taking advantage of the data from china when
college expansion and rural-urban migration jointly accelerate its labor market
transition.
References:
Christopher Taber (Major Professor) -- ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
John Kennan -- jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
Ananth Seshadri -- aseshadr@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Cost and Risk Sharing in Higher Education”
-- Job Market Paper
“Skill Accumulation and Occupational Mobility”
-- UW-Madison, 2012
“Education Complements Urbanization: Evidence from China”
-- In progress
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, UW-Madison
Environmental Economics, Economics: Issue and Policy,
Intermediate Microeconomics, Population Economics,
Principles of Microeconomics
Fields of Interest:
Labor Economics, Public Economics, Applied Econometrics
Three Essays on Human Capital
Dissertation Abstract
Yi Li
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1. Cost and Risk Sharing in Higher Education
This study provides a novel explanation to the correlation between children’s college attendance and family
income. Family income determines parents' capacity to insure their children against college investment risk.
With more parental insurance, wealthy children invest in college confidently. In contrast, even if credit
constraints are not binding for poor children, precautionary saving motives drive poor children to invest
less in college. In order to test this explanation, I build a life-cycle model with idiosyncratic degree
completion shocks and wage shocks. The key innovation of this model is allowing for parents' strategic
responses to children's financial status, which is changing over time and across states. Two data features
enable this model’s identification and estimation. First, the NLSY97 survey records the correlations
between parental transfers and children’s student loan borrowing and schooling decisions. Second, the
recent recession affects the NLSY97 cohort’s early working lives and triggers their parents’ responses, in
forms of cash transfers and co-residence. The structurally estimated parental transfer strategies are policy
invariant and thus valid for the evaluations of alternative educational aid programs. Besides offering
generous grants and credits, I assess in particular the cost efficiency of adding flexible repayment options
into student loans, as an insurance to college investment.
Chapter 2. Skill Accumulation and Occupational Mobility
Occupations differ in their requirements and on-the-job learning opportunities of mathematical and verbal
reasoning skills. New workers with distinct comparative advantages in the two skills choose career paths
to accelerate skill accumulation and maximize lifetime earnings. This study proposes that the interpromotion during the two skills' accumulation processes contributes to one important but little studied
pattern of occupational mobility: although a minority of workers endowed with a highly dominant skill
stick to specialized occupations, the majority develop both skills by working in different occupations and
ultimately select to the occupations requiring relatively balanced skills. Linking the occupational skill data
from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and the individual working history from the NLSY79, I
structurally estimate the skill accumulation technology and the cost of moving across occupations.
Counterfactual experiment results suggest that, for a typical college educated worker, increasing
occupational moving cost will significantly impede skill accumulation and reduce lifetime earnings.
Chapter 3. Education Complements Urbanization: Evidence from China
This study focuses on heterogeneous urban households' decisions in their children's non-compulsory
education, when the opportunities in colleges and in the labor market change with college expansion and
rural-urban migration. On the one hand, college expansion increases the option value of high school
education and thus pulls urban children to higher education levels. On the other hand, rural low-skilled
migrants push urban children to have more education in order to distinguish themselves in the labor market.
Put together, the consequent shift in urban population’s skill distribution enhances urban area’s capacity to
absorb rural migrants. This mechanism is studied in an optimal schooling model with general equilibrium
effects. Precisely, the wages for workers with different education levels and origin areas are determined by
a multi-level nested CES production function. The CHIP urban survey data before the launch of college
expansion are used to estimate the benchmark model, while the later data are applied to examine the model's
prediction.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin
Citizenship: Taiwan
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (608) 556-4108
E-mail: hlin46@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/hc4lin/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Expected 2015)
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2011)
M.A. in Mathematics, National Taiwan University (2007)
B.A. in Finance/Mathematics, National Taiwan University (2005)
Dissertation Title:
Essays on Contracting Problems
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation consists of three chapters on contracting problems. The first
chapter studies the joint design of disability insurance and unemployment
insurance when there are business cycles. I show that there is a large potential
cost saving in switching from the current system to the optimal system. In the
second chapter, I study optimal contracting design with non-stationary, twosided learning, and heterogeneous beliefs. I show that effort could be increasing
or decreasing over time depending on belief differences. In the third chapter, I
analyze the money-burning behavior in implementing anti-dumping duties, and
provide an alternative explanation of the inefficiency incurred when antidumping duties are implemented.
References:
Noah Williams (Primary Advisor) - nwilliam@ssc.wisc.edu
Robert Staiger - rstaiger@dartmouth.edu
John Kennan - jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
Dean Corbae - dcorbae@bus.wisc.edu
Research Experience:
Project Assistant for Noah Williams (September 2013 - present)
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant for Ph.D. Macroeconomics, International Trade and
Finance, Principles of Macroeconomics, and Principles of Microeconomics
Tutor for Ph.D. Macroeconomics/Microeconomics Preliminary Exam
Papers:
“Optimal Disability Insurance and Unemployment Insurance with Cyclical
Fluctuations,” Job Market Paper, 2014
“Non-Stationary Two-Sided Learning in Continuous Time,” 2014
“Anti-Dumping Duties and Money Burning,” 2014
“Dynamic Common Agency Problems in Continuous Time,” 2012
“Efficient Allocations in a Dynamic Moral Hazard Economy” (with Noah
Williams), 2014, in progress
“Disability Insurance and the Business Cycles: A Structural Model and
Estimation” (with Atsuko Tanaka), 2014, in progress
Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Dynamic Contracting, International Trade
Essays on Contracting Problems
Dissertation Abstract
Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter1: Optimal Disability Insurance and Unemployment Insurance with Cyclical Fluctuations
This paper studies the optimal joint design of disability insurance and unemployment insurance in an
environment with moral hazard, when health status is private information, and cyclical fluctuations. I show
how disability benefits and unemployment benefits vary with aggregate economic conditions in an optimal
contract. In a special case of the model, I first show the optimal contract can be solved explicitly up to a
system of non-linear equations. I then demonstrate that the optimal joint insurance system can be
implemented by allowing workers to save or borrow using a bond and by providing flow payments and
lump-sum transfers (or payments), where the interest rates and the amounts paid (transferred) depend on
the employment or health status of the agent and the state of the economy. Finally, I consider a calibrated
version of the full model and study the quantitative implications of both the current system and the optimal
system. In the optimal system, disability benefits are designed such that the system punishes workers who
stay unemployed for a long time. I consider the welfare impact of changing from the current system to the
optimal one when both systems provide the same ex-ante utility to the worker. The cost savings incurred
from incentive problems are substantial, ranging from 45 percent to 101 percent for different workers, and
the unemployment rate could be reduced by roughly 50 percent.
Chapter 2: Non-Stationary Two-Sided Learning in Continuous Time
This paper studies the multi-period contracting problem when actions of an agent are unobservable and
both parties disagree on the agent’s ability. The question being asked is how the actions would be affected
when the amount of disagreement is another motivating factor. I derive the necessary and sufficient
conditions for incentive compatibility. I then use results from stochastic analysis to transform the problem
into one that can be solved numerically using Monte Carlo simulations. My results exhibit an interesting
pattern—effort is no longer front-loaded as discussed in Prat and Jovanovic (2013), and responses to
incentives are significant when the time approaches the terminal date. The time-increasing effort policy
might come from the fact that agents do not want to exert effort when belief differences are substantial. As
the terminal date approaches, the difference in beliefs is decreasing, and the agent might find it optimal to
exert effort to manipulate outcomes.
Chapter 3: Anti-Dumping Duties and Money Burning
Dumping occurs when foreign firms price their exports below what is considered “fair” value. If such
dumping is found to be “injuring” the domestic industry, government agencies then can impose an
antidumping (AD) duty. However, there are known problems with an AD duty, especially the
acknowledged inefficiency of AD investigation process. This paper answers the following question: why
would the government waste resources determining fair value and the extent of injury before implementing
anti-dumping duties when this has little informational content? I show that with delegated decisions and
private information, optimal trade agreements could consist of tariff caps as well as burning money before
high tariff sanctions are used.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Tzu-Chi Lin
Citizenship: Taiwan
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Mobile: (608) 772-9807
E-mail: tlin36@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/tzuchilin029
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.A., Economics, National Taiwan University, June 2009
B.A., Economics, National Taiwan University, June 2007
Dissertation Title:
High-Dimensional Quantile Regression and Forecast Combination
Abstract Summary:
In first chapter, we introduce a threshold quantile adaptive Lasso estimator
allowing a data rich environment. The proposed adaptive Lasso estimator has an
oracle property. It means that the proposed estimator can consistently estimate
parameters and select the correct model pattern even when the number of
regressors is much larger than the sample size. We apply our method to examine
the threshold effect of debt on economic growth and find that a tipping point
appears to exist for many countries. The second chapter proposes a new forecast
combination method which selects the forecast weights by minimizing the
Shibata criterion. We show that our estimator is asymptotically optimal in the
sense of achieving the lowest possible one-step-ahead mean-squared prediction
error for same-realization autoregressions. Third chapter considers quantile
inference for high-dimensional factor-augmented time-series regression. The
novel aspect of the theory is that it allows for time series and estimated factors.
Empirical applications to interval forecasting and risk evaluation are discussed.
References:
Bruce E. Hansen (Primary Advisor) - bhansen@ssc.wisc.edu
Xiaoxia Shi - xshi@ssc.wisc.edu
Kenneth D. West - kdwest@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
Debt Overhang and Economic Growth Controversy: High-Dimensional
Threshold Quantile Regression (Job Market Paper)
Asymptotic Optimal Averaging Weight Selection for Predictions in
Autoregressions
Inference and Factor Selection on Quantile Factor-Augmented Regression
Model (in progress)
Adaptive Optimal Forecast Combination for Autoregressive Time Series (in
progress)
Teaching Experience:
UW-Madison: Statistics: Measurement in Economics, 2 semesters.
Principles of Microeconomics, 2 semesters.
Introduction to Econometrics, 1 semester.
Econometrics ( Master ), 1 semester.
Fields of Interest:
Econometrics, Macroeconomics, Development Economics.
High-Dimensional Quantile Regression and Forecast Combination
Dissertation Abstract
Tzu-Chi Lin
University of Wisconsin –Madison
Chapter 1. Debt Overhang and Economic Growth Controversy: High-Dimensional
Threshold Quantile Regression
In first chapter, we propose a threshold quantile Lasso estimator and investigate the existence of the 90%
debt-to-GDP tipping point found by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010). We consider a high-dimensional quantile
regression model with a potential threshold allowing for time series data. The merits of our approach are
threefold. First, high-dimensional analysis deals with model uncertainty problem in new growth theory.
Second, asymmetric effect of public debt on GDP can be captured via the proposed quantile method and
verified with our empirical results. Third, time-series approach delineates country characteristics which are
crucial for country-specific policy implementation. Our main contributions include three parts: First, under
mixing and sparse conditions, we derive the consistency of regression coefficients regardless of the
identification of threshold. Second, we show that the oracle property of adaptive Lasso can distinguish
between linear and threshold regression models while the number of covariates is much larger than sample
size. Third, we apply the method to check the existence of a tipping point between debt and GDP growth
for cross-country and country-specific data. We find that the detrimental tipping point effect is prevailing
in developing countries instead of developed countries and the tipping points are heterogeneous across
countries, ranging from 10% to 110%. Furthermore, the proposed quantile method shows that the negative
tipping point impact of public debt on GDP growth rate is asymmetric among developed countries. While
debt ratio surpasses the threshold, the potential risk of economic downturn is projected to increase and the
chance of rapid GDP growth is reduced in developed countries. The channels for the impact of public debt
and corresponding policy implementations are also discussed.
Chapter 2. Asymptotic Optimal Averaging Weight Selection for Predictions in
Autoregressions
In this chapter, we propose a new forecast combination method which selects the forecast weights by
minimizing the Shibata criterion. The advantages of the proposed method are twofold. First, the estimator
is asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible one-step-ahead mean-squared
prediction error for same-realization autoregressions. Second, the optimal property is preserved for
nonstationary process without the prior knowledge of integration order. The Monte Carlo simulation results
show that the proposed method has low out-of-sample mean-square prediction error.
Chapter 3. Inference and Factor Selection on Quantile Factor-Augmented Regression Model
(in progress)
Third chapter considers quantile inference for high-dimensional factor-augmented time series regression
mode. The novel aspect of the theory is that it allows for time series and estimated factors. We first derive
the asymptotic normality for the quantile regression estimator. Second, given the square root convergence
rate of the quantile regression estimator, we propose a factor selection method via adaptive Lasso which
has oracle properties. It means that proposed estimator can consistently estimate parameters and correctly
select the relevant factors. Our method can be applied to interval forecasting and risk evaluation.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Zhentong Lu
Citizenship: China
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (608) 609-3138
E-mail: zhentong.lu@wisc.edu
http://sites.google.com/site/zhentonglu/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
M.A. in Economics, Peking University, 2010
B.A. in Statistics, Hunan University, 2007
Dissertation Title:
A Moment Inequality Approach to Estimating Multinomial Choice Models
with Unobserved Consideration Sets
Abstract Summary:
My job market paper proposes a moment inequality approach to estimating
discrete choice models in which the consideration sets of consumers are
unobservable to the econometricians and apply it to study how limited attention
contributes to the observed persistence in consumer brand choice using
household purchase and store scanner data.
References:
Amit Gandhi (Co-advisor) - agandhi@ssc.wisc.edu
Xiaoxia Shi (Co-advisor) - xshi@ssc.wisc.edu
Kenneth Hendricks – hendrick@ssc.wisc.edu
Alan Sorensen - sorensen@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“A Moment Inequality Approach to Estimating Multinomial Choice Models
with Unobserved Consideration Sets”, Job Market Paper, 2014
“Estimating Demand for Differentiated Products with Error in Market Shares”,
with Amit Gandhi and Xiaoxia Shi, Working Paper, 2013
“Consistent Estimation of Discrete Choice Demand Models Defined by
Conditional Moment Restrictions”, Working Paper, 2012
Research Experience:
Project Assistant, Jean-Francois Houde, January 2011 – May 2011
Project Assistant, Amit Gandhi and Xiaoxia Shi, June 2011 – December 2011
Project Assistant, Xiaoxia Shi, January 2012 – May 2013
Project Assistant, Kenneth Hendricks, June 2013 – August 2014
Project Assistant, Kevin Chung and Noah Lim, September 2014 - Now
Fields of Interest:
Empirical Industrial Organization, Econometrics
A Moment Inequality Approach to Estimating Multinomial Choice Models
with Unobserved Consideration Sets
Dissertation Abstract
Zhentong Lu
University of Wisconsin-Madison
This paper proposes a moment inequality approach to estimating discrete choice models in which the
consideration sets of consumers are unobservable to the econometricians. Instead of setting up a detailed
model of consideration set generation, I explore an incomplete specification that only imposes intuitive
restrictions on the consideration set distribution using economic theory and institutional knowledge. I
show that, combined with the utility maximization assumption, this limited structure generates theoretical
bounds on observed choice probabilities. The bounds imply a set of conditional moment inequalities
which forms the basis of statistical inference. The moment inequality approach avoids modelling the
consideration set generation and thus has less risk of misspecification. In addition, the moment
inequalities can be very informative and even point identify the parameters in the model under certain
conditions. Based on the point identification results, I propose a consistent estimator that performs well in
the Monte Carlo experiments in terms of recovering the true value of parameters and correcting the bias
caused by some possible misspecifications of the consideration set generation. The framework can be
readily extended to handle price endogeneity and market level data.
I apply the proposed approach to study the persistence in consumers' brand choice using IRI household
panel and store scanner data. To study whether and how much consumers’ limited consideration can
explain the observed persistence in consumer brand choice, I specify a panel data discrete choice model
that allows for three potential sources of persistence: state-dependent utility originated from brand loyalty,
serially correlated unobserved heterogeneity and consideration set generation affected by previous
purchases and in-store displays. The estimation results suggest that the state dependent utility is
overestimated substantially without properly controlling the consideration set endogeneity. Counterfactual
experiments shows that about 20% to 60% (varying across brands) of the observed persistence in terms of
re-purchase probability comes from the effects of limited consideration and 10% to 30% percent of brand
switches are driven by in-store displays.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Kurt G. Lunsford
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Citizenship: U.S.A.
Home: (202) 812-6225
E-mail: klunsford@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/a/wisc.edu/kglunsford/home
Degrees:
Ph.D. Economics. University of Wisconsin – Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. Economics. University of Wisconsin – Madison, 2011
B.S. Commerce. University of Virginia, 2005
Dissertation Title:
Essays in Macroeconomics
Abstract Summary:
In the first essay, I incorporate searching, matching and bargaining frictions into the
housing market of a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. I
show that search frictions transmit monetary, productivity and preference shocks to
housing construction and that administrative costs of mortgages also transmit
monetary policy shocks to housing construction. An identified factor-augmented
vector autoregression supports the model’s qualitative responses to monetary policy
shocks. In the second essay, I forecast residential investment by modelling
multicointegration among housing starts, completions and units under construction.
This model performs better than standard time series models and at least as well as
the Survey of Professional Forecasters. In the third essay, I study the effect that the
changing mix of goods and services has on monetary policy given the observed
differences in nominal rigidities between these sectors.
References:
Kenneth D. West (Primary Advisor): kdwest@wisc.edu
Dean Corbae: corbae@ssc.wisc.edu
Charles Engel: cengel@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Housing Search and Fluctuations in Residential Construction,” Job Market
Paper, UW – Madison, 2014.
“Forecasting Residential Investment in the United States,” forthcoming
International Journal of Forecasting.
“Jobless but Not Unemploymentful Recoveries,” in progress, UW – Madison, 2013
“Has the Impact of the Federal Funds Rate Increased?” UW – Madison, 2011.
Teaching Experience:
Anna Morris Ely Teaching Award, 2014.
Teaching assistant for Introductory Microeconomics (2 semesters), Introductory
Macroeconomics (2 semesters), Intermediate Macroeconomics (1 semester), and
Advanced Macroeconomics (1 semester).
Research Experience:
Project Assistant for Prof. Kenneth D. West (3 semesters)
Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Applied Time Series Econometrics
Essays in Macroeconomics
Dissertation Abstract
Kurt G. Lunsford
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Chapter 1: Housing Search and Fluctuations in Residential Construction
This chapter develops a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where
the housing sector is subject to searching, matching and bargaining frictions. I show that the
searching and matching frictions are a transmission source for monetary, productivity and
preference shocks to impact residential construction, and that the administrative costs of mortgages
also transmit monetary shocks to residential construction. Consistent with the stylized fact that
residential investment is more volatile than other components of GDP, a calibrated version of the
model yields large responses in residential construction from all shocks. To test the qualitative
predictions of monetary policy shocks in the DSGE model, I estimate a factor-augmented vector
autoregression and identify the structural monetary policy shocks with an external instrument. The
identified impulse response functions of mortgage rates, residential construction spending, new
house starts, new house sales, real house prices, real rental prices, time on the market and the
homeownership rate are consistent with the DSGE model.
Chapter 2: Forecasting Residential Investment in the United States, forthcoming
International Journal of Forecasting
This chapter studies models for forecasting residential investment. It includes standard univariate
and multivariate models, and proposes an error correction model (ECM) based on the stock-flow
relationship of housing starts, completions and units under construction. All models are estimated
on real-time data, and the root mean squared prediction errors (RMSPEs) of the models are
compared along with the RMSPEs of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Federal
Reserve's Greenbook. For the 1981:Q3 to 2013:Q2 sample, the ECM improves upon the
competing models with its largest improvements on the univariate models coming from the current
quarter forecasts and on the multivariate models from the multi-step forecasts. Further, the ECM
makes modest improvements to the SPF and performs comparably to the Greenbook from 1981:Q3
to 2007:Q4. Relative to the current state of professional forecasting, the ECM performs best at
multi-step forecast horizons and in volatile economic periods.
Chapter 3: Has the Impact of the Federal Funds Rate Increased?
Two stylized facts of the U. S. economy are that nominal prices in the services sector change less
frequently than nominal prices in the goods sector and that the size of the services sector relative
to the goods sector has increased over the last 50 years. In a two-sector new Keynesian model,
these facts imply that interest rate shocks should have a larger impact on output in more recent
time periods, holding parameters of the model other than price stickiness and relative sector size
constant. In contrast to this implication, impulse response functions of U.S. GDP to Federal Funds
rate shocks estimated using both vector autoregressions and factor-augmented vector
autoregressions are larger in the 1959 to 1979 time period than in the 1983 to 2007 time period.
One possible explanation for this empirical result is that interest rate policy became aggressive
against inflation in recent time periods. Via calibration, I show that the effects of this policy shift
swamp the effects of changes to nominal stickiness and relative sector size.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Gabriella Monahova
Address:
Citizenship: Bulgaria; U.S. Permanent Resident
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (309) 363 4117
E-mail: panayotova@wisc.edu
http://sites.google.com/site/gabriellamonahova/
Degrees:
PhD Economics, UW-Madison, 2015 (expected)
M.S. Economics, UW-Madison, 2012
B.A. Economics & International Relations, Lake Forest College, 2010
Dissertation Title:
Essays in Industrial Organization
Abstract Summary:
The first chapter of my dissertation looks at the effect of conflicting hospital
incentives regarding interoperability on the choice of vendor when adopting
electronic medical records. I find no evidence that hospitals place a high value
on interoperability when they choose their vendor, which might give support to
government intervention to increase data exchange between providers. The
second chapter of the dissertation examines tax policy in the presence of black
markets. The strategy is to estimate substitution patterns between the same good
traded legally and on the black market and to quantify losses in tax revenue due
to consumers opting to purchase illegally.
References:
Alan Sorensen (main advisor) – sorensen@ssc.wisc.edu
Kenneth Hendricks – hendrick@ssc.wisc.edu
Amit Gandhi – agandhi@ssc.wisc.edu
Elizabeth Kelly (teaching) – eskelly@wisc.edu
Papers:
“Interoperability and Hospital Incentives in the Adoption of Electronic Medical
Records” (JMP)
“Tax Policy in the Presence of Illegal Markets”, 2013
Teaching Experience:
Teaching assistant, UW-Madison
Principles of Macroeconomics: Fall 2011, Spring 2012
Principles of Microeconomics: Fall 2012, Spring 2014
Intermediate Microeconomics: Spring 2013
Intermediate Microeconomics (Master’s Level): Fall 2013
Fields of Interest:
Empirical Industrial Organization, Health Economics, Illegal Markets
Essays in Industrial Organization
Dissertation Abstract
Gabriella Monahova
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Chapter 1: Interoperability and Hospital Incentives in the Adoption of Electronic Medical
Records (Job Market Paper)
Interoperability, or the ability of health providers to exchange patient data electronically, has been
cited as crucial for electronic medical records (EMR) to achieve their promise of improved quality
of healthcare and decreases in health expenditures. This paper uses EMR adoption data to study if
and how much hospitals prioritize interoperability when they choose their EMR vendor. Exploiting
differences in interoperability within and across vendors, I construct a discrete choice model of
vendor selection based on potentially conflicting hospital incentives regarding interoperability. I
find no evidence that hospitals place a high value on interoperability when they make the adoption
decision, but are highly influenced by the choices of other members in their systems. This suggests
that hospitals have weak private incentives to prioritize interoperability and gives support to
ongoing government efforts to increase the level of patient data exchange between providers.
Chapter 2: Tax Policy in the Presence of Illegal Markets
An important question for tax policy makers is how consumers respond to tax increases that lead
to higher prices. This question becomes more complicated when tax evasion and black market
transactions are considered. The goal of this paper is to estimate substitution patterns between legal
and illegal products and use the estimates to quantify the loss in tax revenue that is attributed to
this substitution. The results suggest that increases in the tax to producers indeed lead to consumers
opting to purchase on the black market and that such transactions rob the government of significant
portions of tax revenue.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Mitchell P. Morey
Citizenship: United States of America
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison Cell: 650-793-2568
1180 Observatory Drive
E-mail: mmorey@wisc.edu
Madison, WI 53706
https://sites.google.com/site/mitchellmorey/
Degrees:
2015 Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (expected)
2012 M.S. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
2010 M.S. Industrial & Labor Relations, Cornell University
2007 B.S. Industrial & Labor Relations, Cornell University
Dissertation Title:
Essays on International Trade in Developing Countries
Abstract Summary:
I seek to examine the ways in which observed patterns of trade deviate from
the theoretical optimum for issues that are salient in developing countries. In
particular, the first chapter of my dissertation examines a potential demand-side
reason for the home bias in trade. I find that consumers display a preference for
domestically produced goods independent of any potential quality effect. The
proclivity to favor domestically produced goods translates to a significant
reduction of imports. In the second chapter, I examine the role of bilateral trade
as it affects to the incidence of terrorist acts targeting trading partners. I address
the endogeneity of terrorism and trade by instrumenting for imports with terms
of trade shocks. Results show that trade with the USA makes US interests less
likely to be the target of a given attack but that trade increases the likelihood
that there will be some positive level of terrorism in that country.
References:
Robert Staiger (Major Professor) - rstaiger@wisc.edu
Laura Schechter - lschechter@wisc.edu
L. Kamran Bilir - bilir@wisc.edu
Papers:
Testing the Existence of a Home Bias in Trade (Job Market Paper)
Trade as an Antiterrorist Policy (Working Paper)
Cash, food, or vouchers? An application of Market Information and Food
Insecurity Response Analysis Framework Conducted in urban and Rural Kenya
with Hope Michelson, Erin Lentz, et al. Food Security 2012, 4:3
Teaching Experience:
Introductory Microeconomics (Spring 2011, Summer 2014)
Introductory Macroeconomics (Fall 2010, Spring 2014)
Intermediate Algebra (Fall 2011, Fall 2013)
Fundamental Mathematical Skills (Fall 2012)
International Trade & Finance (Fall 2012, Fall 2014)
Human Resources & Economic Growth (Spring 2013)
Fields of Interest:
Development, International
ESSAYS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Dissertation Abstract
MITCHELL P. MOREY
University of Wisconsin-Madison
I study the role of international trade in contexts most relevant for developing countries. In
particular, I focus on phenomena that suppress trade relative to a world in which the ideal
neoclassical models hold.
In the first chapter, I address the question of why the observed levels of international trade are far
lower than predicted by neoclassical trade models. To this point, there is little evidence that this
home bias in trade is driven by preference-based demand structures while many different supply
side factors have been identified as causes. This paper provides evidence that consumers have an
inherent preference for domestically produced goods. Using data from a randomized controlled
trial and survey conducted in Madagascar, respondents' willingness to pay for rice of varying
quality and origin is investigated. By imposing a novel structure on traditional valuation collection
methods, it is possible to isolate the effect of a good being produced domestically from the effect
of quality differences. The results demonstrate that consumers are willing to pay at least 8% more
for a good that is domestically produced. This corresponds to a roughly 5% reduction in the
quantity of imported rice that is consumed. This constitutes an important portion of the total
amount of missing trade. There are many implications for this result, including the role of trade
parameters for CGE models and the assumed welfare gains that would result from reducing trade
costs.
The second chapter of the dissertation examines the role of international trade as a mechanism for
reducing terrorist attacks on the citizens of a trading partner. Many studies have asked the reverse
question: the effect of terrorism on international trade. This indicates that there is a significant
problem with endogeneity. To overcome this obstacle, I indentify an instrument that will affect
international trade but is completely exogenous to a country. I instrument for bilateral trade flows
with terms of trade shocks and use two-stage least squares to estimate the effect on the incidence
of terrorism. Results demonstrate that when a country trades in large volumes with the United
States, American citizens represent a smaller share of the victims of terrorist attacks in that country.
At the same time, as trade with the United States increases, a country will become more likely to
experience a positive level of terrorist attacks.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Kayuna Nakajima
Citizenship: Japan
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (608) 770-4711
E-mail: nakajima@wisc.edu
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~nakajima/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected May 2015
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
M.S. in Economics, University of Tokyo, 2010
B.A. in Economics, Keio University, Magna Cum Laude, 2008
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays on Immigration
Abstract Summary:
In the first chapter, I construct a structural model of Mexican immigrants and
use it to quantify how various immigration policies affect the US government’s
budget deficit. In doing so, I take into account the fact that such policies may
change not only the number of immigrants in the US but also their composition
in terms of earnings and marital status. In the second paper, I propose a new
explanation for why unsuccessful Mexican immigrants are more likely to return
to Mexico and then come back to the US. In the third chapter, I document the
extent to which wages of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US decrease
during recessions in the US and analyze the potential impact of this on natives’
employment.
References:
John Kennan (Primary Advisor) – jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
Rasmus Lentz – rlentz@ssc.wisc.edu
Christopher Taber – ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Nicolas Roys (Teaching) – nroys@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“The Fiscal Impact of Border Tightening,” Job Market Paper
“The Repeated Migration Puzzle: A New Explanation”
“Immigrant Wages and Recessions: Evidence from Undocumented Mexicans”
(with Rebecca Lessem)
“Real Indeterminacy of Stationary Monetary Equilibria in Centralized
Economics” (with Kazuya Kamiya and So Kubota), revision requested
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant for Microeconomics and Mathematical Economics
Fields of Interest:
Labor Economics, Applied Microeconomics
Three Essays on Immigration
Dissertation Abstract
Kayuna Nakajima
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1: The Fiscal Impact of Border Tightening (Job Market Paper)
Since the 1990s, the US government has been increasing the US-Mexico border patrol budget, intensifying
deportation, and taking measures to make it harder for unauthorized immigrants to work. One of the
motivations for such policies is to ease the fiscal burden of low-skilled immigrants. In this paper, I analyze
the impact of these and other immigration policies on the budget deficit using a dynamic lifetime structural
model of immigrants. A novel feature of the model is that it takes into account the fact that stricter
immigration policies will not only reduce the number of immigrants in the US, but may also change their
composition in terms of earnings and marital status. The latter effect—which I call a “composition
effect”—may strengthen or weaken the deficit reduction, potentially significantly given the extent to which
net tax contributions vary across these traits. I estimate the model so as to replicate a number of empirical
facts on low-educated Mexicans, including selective initial and return migration and wage assimilation in
the US. Using the estimated model, I conduct counterfactual simulations that evaluate the impact of various
immigration policies. I find that the composition effect can be quantitatively significant and its sign may
change at different time horizons. For example, when the border tightens, the proportional reduction in the
deficit is larger than the proportional reduction in the number of immigrants in the long run, because small
net tax contributors are deterred from entering the US. In the short run, however, the proportional reduction
in the deficit is smaller than that in the number of immigrants. These patterns vary across policies.
Chapter 2: The Repeated Migration Puzzle: A New Explanation
About 15% of Mexican immigrants return to Mexico after earning less than $5600 and these unsuccessful
immigrants are more likely to repeatedly enter the US. In order to explain this, I build a model in which
Mexicans want to migrate to the US to accumulate assets until they reach their target level, but they also
have a preference for living in their home country. I assume that the disutility associated with living
abroad—which I call a “homesickness”—increases as they reside in the US. Once an immigrant returns to
Mexico, his homesickness drops to zero and he can make a fresh start. Thus, immigrants who could only
get low wage jobs in the US choose to return home within a few years because their gain from residing in
the US is not enough to compensate for their homesickness. But once they return to Mexico and their
homesickness drops to zero, they reenter the US to resume their asset accumulation. According to the
estimated model, reducing homesickness increases trip duration and total earnings.
Chapter 3: Immigrant Wages and Recessions: Evidence from Undocumented Mexicans” (with
Rebecca Lessem)
We show that undocumented immigrants experience larger wage drops during recessions than natives.
Motivated by this observation, we build a model in which natives’ wages are rigid (because of long term
labor contracts) while immigrants’ wages are flexible. We estimate the model to replicate the migration
behavior and wages of Mexicans from 1982 to 2003 using the Mexican Migration Project Survey.
According to the estimated model, reducing the flexibility of immigrants’ wages increases the volatility of
natives’ employment. This suggests that the flexibility of immigrants’ wages may be mitigating the
employment fluctuations of natives over the business cycle.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Christopher J. Reynolds
Citizenship: United States
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin–Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, Wisconsin 53706
Office: (608) 262-0213
Home: (817) 975-7823
E-mail: cjreynolds@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/econcjr
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison (Expected 2015)
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison (2010)
B.A. cum laude in Economics and Urban Studies, Trinity University (2006)
Dissertation Title:
Essays on State and Local Effects of Poverty-Alleviation Policies
Abstract Summary:
In the first essay, I find that physical proximity to a traditional financial
institution is associated with lower utilization of alternative financial services
among residents of low-to-moderate-income communities. I then use the
findings as an upper-bound for estimating the benefits of the Community
Reinvestment Act’s bank branch location regulations. In the second essay, we
propose a new model for evaluating the labor demand effects of unemployment
insurance programs. We find that this model has significant theoretical
advantages over the literature’s standard model, that the standard model
overstates firms’ employment reaction to higher UI taxes, and we identify a class
of firms facing a tax incentive to lay more workers off.
References:
J. Karl Scholz (Major Professor) — jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
Chris Taber — ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Jesse Gregory — jmgregory@wisc.edu
Elizabeth Kelly (Teaching) — eskelly@wisc.edu
Papers:
“The Role of Proximity in Financial Service Utilization and Implications for the
Community Reinvestment Act,” Job Market Paper
“Labor Demand Responses to Unemployment Insurance Incentives,” with
Victoria Udalova
Teaching Experience:
Head Teaching Assistant, Introductory Microeconomics (Fall 2010)
Teaching Assistant, Introductory Microeconomics (2009–2010)
Lead Instructor, “Economists in the Schools” Program (2004–2006)
Research Experience:
RA for Laura Dresser, Center on Wisconsin Strategy (2014–2015)
RA for Thomas DeLeire, Population Health Institute (2013)
RA for Timothy Smeeding, Institute for Research on Poverty (2011–2012)
RA at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (2006–2009)
Fields of Interest:
Public Economics, Applied Econometrics, Urban Economics
Essays on State and Local Effects of Poverty-Alleviation Policies
Dissertation Abstract
Christopher J. Reynolds
University of Wisconsin–Madison
Chapter 1: The Role of Proximity in Financial Service Utilization and Implications for the
Community Reinvestment Act (Job Market Paper)
In 1977, the Federal government enacted the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). This
legislation included several alterations to bank regulation—most notable among them were
provisions requiring banks to extend loans to and locate bank branch offices in low-and-moderateincome communities. Despite the significant costs to banks of compliance with these location
regulations, there has been little work examining the impact of bank branch location on nearby
consumers. I address this question using the Detroit Area Household Financial Services survey,
which collected extensive data on consumers’ revealed preferences for various financial products
and also on the physical landscape of traditional and alternative financial service (AFS) providers.
I use this geographic information to construct measures of respondents’ proximity to types of
service-providers and examine whether having a bank branch nearby is associated with reduced
utilization of check-cashing and money order services. I explore mechanisms by which proximity
could causally alter behavior, and I find a small, statistically significant effect of bank accessibility
on voluntary substitution away from AFS use. I use this estimate as an upper-bound on the benefits
to consumers of bank proximity. I then present evidence that helps policymakers weigh this upper
bound of consumer benefits against the cost to banks of suboptimal branch location, and thus to
evaluate the efficiency of the CRA.
Chapter 2: Labor Demand Responses to Unemployment Insurance Incentives
(with Victoria Udalova)
In the wake of the severe recession that began in 2007, the unemployment rate spiked to nearly ten
percent. As a consequence, many state unemployment insurance (UI) systems, which had been
largely uncontroversial and self-sustaining since their inception, watched their financial reserves
dwindle toward insolvency. For thirty years, economic literature examining UI systems has relied
on a theoretical framework established by Robert Topel in 1983. Topel proposed a statistic called
marginal tax cost (MTC) as a measure of the tax implications to firms of future layoffs. Calculating
this statistic, however, requires a number of simplifying assumptions. We propose a new
methodology for calculating MTC that more accurately reflects the implications of UI statutes and
that does not rely on the simplifications of the standard model. We utilize UI data from the
Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development and characterize the relationship between
observed layoffs and MTC as calculated by both the standard model and by our alternative model.
We find that the assumptions of Topel-derived MTC bias its relationship with layoffs upward for
firms with tax costs below the statutory maximum rate and downward for firms paying that
maximum rate. Further, we characterize a class of firms that have a negative MTC (an incentive
to lay off more workers, rather than fewer), which is a scenario assumed away under the standard
model. We conclude that our alternative statistic improves upon Topel-derived MTC, which, on
the whole, overstates the relationship between UI tax incentives for firms and those firms’
subsequent labor demand decisions.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Hector Hugo Sandoval Gutierrez
Citizenship: Mexican
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 537006
Office: (608) 443-9604
Home: (608) 443-9604
E-mail: sandovalguti@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/hhsandoval/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison (expected 2015)
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin – Madison (2013)
M.A. in Economic and Public Policy, Monterrey Institute of Technology and
Higher Education, Graduate School of Public Policy, Mexico (2006)
B.S. in Economics, Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education,
Mexico (2004)
Dissertation Title:
Social Interactions in Randomized Experiments
Abstract Summary:
This paper studies peer effects and randomized experiment using the
experimental data from the Progresa program. Progresa is the main antipoverty
program in Mexico where eligible and non-eligible households living in the same
locality interact with each other and influence each other’s decisions. Using the
theory of social interactions two effects are observed. First, a direct effect arises
from the receipt of the program’s benefits and second, an indirect effect arises
from peer’s behavior. The identification of these effects is closely related to the
design of the experiment and knowledge of the reference groups. In the context
of Progresa and school attendance behavior these two effects are found to be
significant.
References:
Steven N. Durlauf (Primary advisor) – sdurlauf@ssc.wisc.edu
James R. Walker – walker@ssc.wisc.edu
Jesse M. Gregory – jmgregory@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Social Interactions in Randomized Experiments”, Job Market Paper, UWMadison 2014
“Social Interactions, Groups, and Schooling in Rural Mexico”, Field Paper,
UW-Madison 2013
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Economic Growth and Human Resources (undergraduate
level), fall 2014
Research Experience:
External Consultant, UNDP Human Development Office, Mexico, 2013
Project Assistant, Graduate School of Public Policy, Mexico, 2004-2006
Work Experience:
Vice-director of Statistics, Poverty Division of the National Council of Social
Development Public Policy Evaluation (CONEVAL), Mexico (2007 - 2009)
Fields of Interest:
Applied microeconomics, social interactions, and development economics
Social Interactions in Randomized Experiments
Dissertation Abstract
Hector H. Sandoval
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Randomized social experiments are widely used to evaluate social programs. These social experiments
typically involve households or individuals that live and interact with each other. In this context, peer effects
provide a potential mechanism to diffuse the program’s impact. This is the case of the main Mexican
antipoverty program Progresa (currently known as Oportunidades); whose conditional cash transfer design
is broadly applied in other countries around the world. Progresa’s evaluation was planned in parallel as a
randomized experiment taking advantage of the sequential expansion due to budgetary restrictions. In this
experiment, eligible and non-eligible households living in the same locality interact with each other. In
particular, eligible and non-eligible children interact with each other and influence each other’s individual
schooling decisions as well as aggregate group behavior.
This paper uses the theory of social linear interactions models and the data from Progresa to study school
attendance behavior in the presence of peer effects and randomized experiments. Using this methodological
framework I observe a direct effect arising from the receipt of the program’s benefits, which modifies the
individual’s private incentives and an indirect effect from peer’s behavior. The identification of the direct
effect is policy relevant to assess the program’s impact on individual behavior, while the knowledge of the
indirect effect provides information about potential program spillover effects to other, possibly untreated,
group members.
The identification of these two effects is closely related to the design of the experiment and knowledge of
potential reference groups where social interactions take place. Randomization at the group level identifies
an overall group effect, which compounds the direct and indirect effect, but fails to identify them separately.
Randomization at the individual level, without considering group membership, might potentially bias the
assessment of the direct effect of the program by ignoring the indirect effects. A two step randomization
process, in which the first stage randomizes at the group level and the second stage randomizes or selects a
subset of individuals into treatment within the selected treated groups, helps to identify and estimate both
effects separately.
The Progresa experiment randomizes at the locality (group) level, and then provides the program’s benefits
to a subset of the households within each locality according to their poverty status. Considering children in
the same locality and in the same grade as the reference group, the direct effect on school attendance is
around 2 percentage points, while the indirect effect is around 2.5 percentage points. These two effects are
robust to alternative group specifications that consider ethnicity and gender within each school and grade
as separate groups.
Further research is required to assess the program’s impact on other important outcomes such as labor
outcomes, in particular child labor; as well as health outcomes since some of the program’s benefits were
conditional on attending regular medical check-ups. Moreover, in this framework, the program’s benefits
are intended to exclusively affect the private incentives to invest in human capital. However, in some cases
the benefits might produce changes in the relationship between the households by partitioning the group in
treated and untreated subgroups, for example. Studying such cases is policy relevant since social programs
might not intend to alter the social structure.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Hsuan-Li Su
Citizenship: Taiwan
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Cell: (608) 358-2448
Home: (608) 886-7373
E-mail: su24@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/hsuanlisu/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected 2015
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
B.A. in Physics, National Taiwan University, 2006
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays in Macroeconomics
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation studies three topics in macroeconomics. The first chapter studies
the importance of financial frictions in generating macroeconomic fluctuation. I
show that financial frictions play a crucial role when uncertainty shocks hit the
economy, and input-output linkages can further amplify the impact of financial
frictions. The second chapter investigates the city size distribution. I settle the
debate between Eeckhout and Levy by showing that the upper tail of the city size
distribution in the U.S. follows a power law. I then show that the city size
distribution is a mixture of lognormal distributions and that this mixture
generates the heavy tail observed in data. The third chapter examines the relation
between wage inequality and economic growth in developed countries. I show
that there is no clear causality between inequality and growth in empirical data
because this relation depends on the race between the rate of human capital
accumulation and the rate of skill-biased technological change.
References:
Steven Durlauf (Major Professor): sdurlauf@ssc.wisc.edu
Enghin Atalay: eatalay@ssc.wisc.edu
Dean Corbae: corbae@ssc.wisc.edu
Kenneth West: kdwest@wisc.edu
Papers:
“Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages,”
Job Market Paper, October, 2014
“On the City Size Distribution: A Finite Mixture Interpretation,” 2012
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant at UW-Madison:
Principle of Microeconomics (one semester), Principle of Macroeconomics
(one semester), Intermediate Microeconomics (one semester),
Intermediate Macroeconomics (three semesters)
Teaching Assistant at National Taiwan university:
Option Pricing (graduate class, one semester)
Fields of Interest:
Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, Networks
Three Essays in Macroeconomics
Dissertation Abstract
Hsuan-Li Su
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1. Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages
I analyze the role of financial frictions in amplifying impulse responses to different type of shocks and show
that input-output linkages have important implications in amplifying the impact of financial frictions on the
aggregate economy. Financial frictions distort the allocation of capital and induce capital wedges. The
capital wedge channel is weak under TFP shocks, but is strong under uncertainty shocks. As a result, in
standard models driven by TFP shocks, adding financial frictions dampens the impulse responses. On the
other hand, financial frictions can drive aggregate TFP fluctuation and play a crucial role when uncertainty
shocks hit the economy. Adding input-output linkages can further amplify the impact. In the model
calibrated to U.S. data, I quantify the amplification effects of firm linkages. By adding input-output
linkages, aggregate output drops an additional 84% under TFP shocks and an additional 40% under
uncertainty shocks. Furthermore, the model shows that the Manufacturing and the Finance sectors are the
two most important sectors in their impact on aggregate output.
Chapter 2. On the City Size Distribution: A Finite Mixture Interpretation
This paper settles the debate between Eeckhout (2004, 2009) and Levy (2009) and offers a simple but
neglected explanation for the heavy tail observed in the city size distribution. Using the same data set and
thestatistics reported in Eeckhout (2004), I show that U.S. city sizes are not lognormally distributed and
that the upper tail indeed follows a power law. I then show that the aggregate city size distribution is a
mixture of lognormal distributions, and that this mixture generates the heavy tail. This paper also advocates
abandoning the use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and OLS regressions and instead using the
rigorous and powerful Cramer-von Mises type statistics to do goodness-of-fit tests. Finally, I relax the
independence assumption and show that city sizes are positively dependent in the data, and that the power
law distribution is robust under this positive dependence.
Chapter 3. The Relation between Growth and Inequality in Developed Countries
Income inequality affects economic growth through channels of human capital accumulation, fertility, and
investment. However, whether inequality encourages or hurts economic growth remains controversial.
Empirical findings suggest that income inequality hurts economic growth in developing countries, but the
results in developed countries are inconclusive. This paper tries to investigate why the relationship between
inequality and growth is indeterminate in developed countries, and focuses on the channels of human capital
accumulation and high skill-biased technological change. The hypothesis is that human capital
accumulation and skill-biased technological change affect both income inequality and economic growth
simultaneously. As a result, there is no clear causality between inequality and growth. Human capital
accumulation increases the supply of high-skilled labor, while high skill-biased technological change
increases the demand for high-skilled labor; both factors help economic growth. As a result, the relation
between equilibrium relative wage (among high-skilled and low-skilled labors) and income inequality
depends on the race between the rate of human capital accumulation and the rate of skill-biased
technological change.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Joanna Syrda
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Citizenship: Poland
Cell: (608) 320-6404
E-mail: syrda@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/joannasyrda/
Degrees:
Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2011
M.S. Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, 2008
Dissertation Title:
“Three Essays in Economics”
Abstract Summary:
The first paper presents a modified logit model to analyze multiproduct firm
behavior and industry dynamics in markets with significant endogenous sunk
cost such as advertising. The model incorporates Sutton’s theory, showing that
such markets as they grow in size, through associated competitive escalation of
spending, become highly concentrated and predicts decline in product variety
and highly skewed returns and skewed budget allocation observed in the
entertainment industries. The second paper finds empirical evidence of nontransferable utility component in the marriage market, showing increased odds
of separation as spouses’ physical fitness diverges and little evidence of
compensating substitution patterns. The third paper examines the relationship
between individuals’ risk attitudes and marriage market decisions. The empirical
results are in line with the employment search theory, high risk aversion leads to
earlier marriage and less likely divorce.
References:
Kenneth Hendricks (Primary Advisor): hendrick@ssc.wisc.edu
Alan Sorensen: sorensen@ssc.wisc.edu
Amit Gandhi: agandhi@ssc.wisc.edu
Gwen Eudey (Teaching): geudey@bus.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Economics of Music Chart Toppers: Market Size, Market Concentration
and Product Variety” (job market paper), October 2014
“Divorce and Differential BMI: Till Death or Unfitness Do Us Part?”, 2013
“Risk Attitudes, Marriage and Divorce”, in progress
Teaching Experience:
TA at UW-Madison Department in Economics and School of Business
Principles of Microeconomics (4 semesters), Game Theory (1 semester),
Principles of Macroeconomics (3 semesters), Economics of Law (1 semester),
IO (1 semester), International Trade and Finance (1 semester)
Research Experience:
Research Assistant to Prof. Robert Haveman, IRP
Fields of Interest:
Industrial Organization, Applied Microeconomics
THREE ESSAYS IN ECONOMICS
Dissertation Abstract
JOANNA SYRDA
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Economics of Music Chart Toppers: Market Size, Market Concentration and Product Variety
This paper presents a modified logit model to analyze multiproduct firm behavior and industry dynamics
in markets with significant endogenous sunk cost such as advertising or R&D. In the years 1959-1999 the
US Recorded Music Market has increased considerably in size and the associated competitive escalation of
spending led to a highly concentrated market, where a large share of the industry profit is appropriated by
a small number of extremely successful products.
Music industry products are essentially priced uniformly or prices vary within a narrow range, hence in the
proposed model firms engage in a non-price competition and decide on the optimal advertising spending
allocation across an exogenous distribution of artists’ talent or market potential. Firms internalize demand
linkages between their products and as they gain market power optimal allocation involves heavy promotion
of fewer products. The developed theoretical framework endogenously generates an S-shaped advertising
response function and growing incentives to advertise with the size of the market in line with Sutton’s
theory of endogenous sunk cost.
The model predicts increasing market concentration and highly skewed returns and skewed budget
allocation observed in the entertainment industries. Using the model I present numerical simulations that
are consistent with observed market dynamics. The results are largely driven by preference for variety and
advertising effectiveness which are estimated using Billboard chart data and collected data on the industry
ownership links.
Divorce and Differential BMI: Till Death or Unfitness Do Us Part?
If the transferable utility approach aptly explained the marriage market then all divorces would be mutual
as there either would be a surplus to the match or there would be none. Marriage can be analyzed as a
repeated game, where at each stage spouses choose their effort in multiple dimensions and upon observing
the outcomes of that effort they decide whether to stay together or separate given their utility from marriage
and from the outside option. Physical attractiveness is a characteristic that contributes to the utility derived
from the match and may require effort and change over time decreasing the surplus from a marriage.
Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) dataset I show strong evidence of Positive Assortative
Matching across numerous dimensions including BMI and investigate to what degree physical fitness is a
fixity, a non-transferable utility component. The empirical result is an increase in odds of divorce given
significant differences among spouses’ physical attractiveness, with little evidence of compensating
substitution patterns.
Risk Attitudes, Marriage and Divorce.
A search model from employment literature predicts that, the more risk averse the individual, the shorter
the time to first marriage. Holding the utility derived from a match and value of outside option equal,
another parameter that affects individual's decision to marry or to divorce is risk aversion. A search model
from the employment literature shows that, due to the uncertainty of the process, the more risk averse marry
earlier and are less likely to divorce, due to the outcome uncertainty of reentering the matching market.
Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) dataset I approximate risk preference based on an income
gamble survey results and confirm the theoretical predictions of high risk aversion leading to earlier
marriage and less likely divorce.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Jing Tao
Citizenship: P. R. China
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected May 2015
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, January 2012
B.A., Economics (honors) & B.S., Mathematics, Peking University, June 2006
Dissertation Title:
Essays on Semi-Nonparametric Econometrics
Abstract Summary:
References:
Cell: (608) 698-5582
E-mail: jtao2@wisc.edu
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~jtao
The first essay provides inference methods for point and partially identified seminonparametric conditional moment models. Inference includes uniform
confidence bands for the infinite-dimensional components of the parameter
through an adaptation of the strong approximation methods in Belloni,
Chernozhukov, and Fernandez-Val (2011) and related work. The second essay
proposes criteria to simultaneously select the number of series terms for
regressors and instruments in nonparametric instrumental variables
estimation and establishes the asymptotic optimality of a new model
averaging estimator. The third essay provides nonparametric estimation and
inference methods for the bidders’ utility function and the density function
of private values for risk-averse bidders in first-price sealed-bid auctions.
Jack Porter (Primary) – jrporter@ssc.wisc.edu
Bruce Hansen – bhansen@ssc.wisc.edu
Xiaoxia Shi – xshi@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Inference for Point and Partially Identified Semi-Nonparametric Conditional
Moment Models” – Job Market Paper, October 2014.
“Model Selection and Model Averaging in Nonparametric Instrumental
Variables Models,” with Chu-An Liu, October 2014.
“Empirical Likelihood Ratio Tests of Conditional Moment Restrictions with
Unknown Functions,” R&R at Econometric Theory.
“Nonparametric Estimation and Inference for Risk Aversion in First-Price
Auctions under Exclusion Restrictions,” March 2013.
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant at UW-Madison: Principles of Microeconomics
(×2), Intro to Econometrics (×2), Economic
Statistics and Econometrics (graduate), Econometrics (gradate).
Research Experience:
Project Assistant for Professor Bruce Hansen (September 2013-June 2014).
Fields of Interest:
Econometric Theory and Applied Microeconomics
Essays on Semi-Nonparametric Econometrics
Dissertation Abstract
Jing Tao
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Inference for Point and Partially Identified Semi-Nonparametric Conditional Moment Models
(Job Market Paper)
This paper provides inference methods for functionals of parameters for semi-nonparametric conditional
moment models, which include the nonparametric IV model as a special case. For point-identified models,
my findings include (1) pointwise joint asymptotic normality of sieve GMM estimators of both finite- and
infinite-dimensional components of the parameter; (2) strong approximation results for the estimates of
functionals of the parametric and nonparametric components; (3) pointwise and uniform inference methods
for (joint) hypotheses on functionals of both components. Based on these results, we can, for instance,
construct uniform confidence bands for the infinite-dimensional component (unknown functions) and
functionals of these unknown functions. If the model is partially identified, we show that the quasilikelihood ratio (QLR) statistic is still valid for a certain class of functional restrictions on the parameter
space. Under partial identification, we can construct pointwise confidence regions by inverting the same
QLR statistic that is employed under point identification. Furthermore, we can construct uniform
confidence sets by inverting a sup-QLR statistic that is also employed under point identification. We
provide a consistent weighted bootstrap procedure for obtaining critical values corresponding to the QLR.
In application, I apply the new methods to construct pointwise confidence regions and uniform confidence
sets for shape-invariant Engel curves.
Model Selection and Model Averaging in Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Models (with
Chu-An Liu)
This paper proposes a simple Mallows criterion to simultaneously select the number of series terms for
regressors and instruments in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation. We show that the proposed
selection criterion is asymptotically optimal in the sense that the selected estimate asymptotically achieves
the lowest possible mean-squared error among all candidates. To account for model uncertainty, we
introduce a new model averaging estimator and demonstrate its asymptotic optimality. Monte Carlo
simulations confirm that both selection and averaging methods generally achieve lower root mean-squared
error than other existing methods. The methods are applied to the estimation of Engel curves and the return
to a college education.
Nonparametric Estimation and Inference for Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions under
Exclusion Restrictions
This paper studies nonparametric estimation of the first-price sealed-bid auction model with risk-averse
bidders. I provide an estimator corresponding to the identification established in Guerre, Perrigne and
Vuong (2009). Compared with Zincenko (2014), I derive the asymptotic distribution for the
nonparametric estimator of bidders' utility functions. I also propose inference methods to test
restrictions on utility functions and inference methods on the density function of the private values.
The methods are applied to the U.S. Forest Service timber auction.
Empirical Likelihood Ratio Tests of Conditional Moment restrictions with Unknown Functions
This paper develops empirical likelihood ratio tests for conditional moment models with unknown
functions. I obtain two new results: (1) the limiting distribution of the sieve conditional empirical likelihood
ratio test statistic for functionals of parameters under the null and local alternatives; and (2) the limiting
distribution of a consistent specification test under the null and local alternatives. A simulation study
suggests that the two tests behave well in small samples.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Victoria Udalova
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Citizenship: U.S.A.
Cell phone: (608) 446-6583
E-mail: udalova@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/victoriaudalova
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (Expected 2015)
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2011)
B.A., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (2007)
Dissertation Title:
“Three Essays on Health Economics”
Abstract Summary:
My dissertation research focuses on factors impacting the type of medical treatments
patients receive. My first essay estimates the impact of increasing the availability of
primary care providers on medical treatment choices. Using variation in the timing
of passage of state laws governing the independence of practice for nurse
practitioners, I find that in states that allow nurse practitioners greater freedom from
oversight by doctors, the frequency of routine checkups increases, various measures
of care quality improve, and emergency room use by patients with ambulatory care
sensitive conditions decreases. My second essay examines how treatment choices
are influenced by treatment choices of others in the same household. I document the
existence and magnitude of peer effects among household members on the choice of
prescription medications. My third essay focuses on the effect of physicians’
personal asset protection on treatment choices. Using variations in bankruptcy law,
I find that malpractice premiums decrease and total hospital charges for patients with
heart conditions decrease when bankruptcy exemptions increase with no
corresponding change in mortality risk.
References:
John Karl Scholz (Major Professor) - jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
Chris Taber - ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Jason Fletcher - jfletcher@lafollette.wisc.edu
Corbett Grainger (Teaching Reference) - cagrainger@wisc.edu
Papers:
“Nurse Practitioner Independence, Health Care Utilization, and Health Outcomes”
(Job Market Paper) (with Jeffrey Traczynski)
“I'll Have What She's Having: Household Peer Effects in Prescription Medications”
“Physician Asset Protection, Malpractice Insurance, and Defensive Medicine”
(with Jeffrey Traczynski)
“Person, Place, and Regulation: Predictors of CRC Screening by Endoscopy” (with
Lee R. Mobley, Tzy-Mey Kuo, Jon Starnes, Jeffrey Traczynski, & Julia
Koschinsky)
“Macro-Level Factors Impacting Geographic Disparities in Cancer Screening”
(with Lee R. Mobley, Tzy-Mey Kuo, Jeffrey Traczynski, and H.E. Frech III),
Health Economics Review 2014, 4:13
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Principles of Macroeconomics (2010)
Teaching Assistant, Environmental & Natural Resource Economics (2011)
Fields of Interest:
Applied Microeconomics, Public Economics, Health Economics
Three Essays on Health Economics
Dissertation Abstract
Victoria Udalova
University of Wisconsin – Madison
My dissertation research focuses on factors impacting the type of medical treatments patients receive. The
first essay estimates the impact of increasing the availability of primary care providers on medical treatment
choices. The second essay examines how treatment choices are influenced by treatment choices of others
in the same household. The third essay focuses on the effect of physicians’ personal asset protection on
treatment choices.
Chapter 1: “Nurse Practitioner Independence, Health Care Utilization, and Health Outcomes”
(Job Market Paper) (with Jeffrey Traczynski)
Over the last several decades, many states relaxed their occupational licensing restrictions to allow nurse
practitioners (NPs) to practice and prescribe drugs without oversight by a medical doctor. Using variation
in the timing of passage of state scope-of-practice laws governing the independence of medical practice of
NPs, I estimate the effect of NP independence on utilization of primary care services and patient health
outcomes. I find that in states that allow NPs greater freedom from oversight by medical doctors, the
frequency of routine checkups increases, various measures of care quality improve, and emergency room
use by patients with ambulatory care sensitive conditions decreases.
Chapter 2: “I'll Have What She’s Having: Household Peer Effects in Prescription Medications”
I document the existence and magnitude of peer effects on the choice of prescription medications among
household members who share the same medical condition. Observing the experience of others with a drug
may reveal information about the drug’s expected benefit to the patient and lead to a better patient-to-drug
match. On the other hand, the experiences of others in the peer group may lead patients to demand or,
instead, to reject a specific drug regardless of physician’s recommendations, perhaps leading to a worse
patient-to-drug match. Both impacts have implications for health outcomes and lifetime health care costs.
I find significant and robust interaction effects within households in their use of prescription medications.
I also explore asymmetries in the flow of peer influences among household members and find that the
effects are nonlinear in the number of peers and that the greatest influence comes from female peers on
other female household members’ initial choice of drug.
Chapter 3: “Physician Asset Protection, Malpractice Insurance, and Defensive Medicine”
(with Jeffrey Traczynski)
I estimate the effect of personal asset protection on physician practice decisions. Using variation in state
bankruptcy exemption levels, I find that increases in bankruptcy exemption levels result in decreases in
malpractice premiums for physicians, suggesting that the asset protection offered by bankruptcy is a
substitute for the asset protection offered by malpractice insurance. I also find that total hospital charges
for patients with heart conditions decrease when bankruptcy exemptions increase with no corresponding
change in mortality risk, indicating that increases in exemptions decrease malpractice pressure and the
practice of defensive medicine. My results suggest an imperfect substitutability between malpractice
insurance, bankruptcy exemptions, and the insurance against lawsuits provided by defensive medicine.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Haomin Wang
Citizenship: China
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Degrees:
Ph.D., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected May 2015
M.S., Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, May 2012
B.S., Economics and Mathematics, University of Virginia, May 2009
Dissertation Title:
“Essays on Job Search in the Labor Market”
Abstract Summary:
Office: (608)
Home: (608) 320 2343
E-mail: hwang2@ssc.wisc.edu
http://ssc.wisc.edu/~hwang2
This dissertation consists of two chapters that study issues concerning job search
in the frictional labor market. In the first chapter, I examine the effects of the
couple household structure on married workers’ transitions in and out of the labor
force and the cyclical variations of the labor force participation decisions. I
construct and estimate a model of joint-search, which generates spousal effects that
are consistent with the data. In the second chapter, we study three mechanisms that
result in the negative duration dependence of unemployment using the
Longitudinal Employer and Household Data.
References:
John Kennan (Primary Advisor) – jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
Rasmus Lentz – rlentz@ssc.wisc.edu
Christopher Taber – ctaber@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Intrahousehold Risk Sharing and Job Search over the Business Cycle” (Job
Market Paper)
“Why Can't Long-term Unemployed Workers Find Jobs?” (Joint with Rebecca
Lessem, Carl Sanders and Ian Schmutte; Work in Progress)
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, Wages and Labor Economics (3 semesters)
Teaching Assistant, Human Resources and Economic Growth (2 semesters)
Teaching Assistant, Intermediate Microeconomics (1 semester)
Research Experience:
Project Assistant, Professor Eric Camburn, July 2013-July 2014
Fields of Interest:
Labor Economics, Macroeconomics, Applied Microeconomics
Essays on Job Search in the Labor Market
Dissertation Abstract
Haomin Wang
University of Wisconsin-Madison
This dissertation consists of two chapters that study issues concerning job search in the
frictional labor market.
Chapter One: Intrahousehold Risk Sharing and Job Search over the Business Cycle
Data indicates that spousal unemployment has substantial effects on workers' decision to
move in and out of the labor force. Moreover, the cyclical patterns of the transition between
non-participation and unemployment suggest that workers’ labor force participation
decisions are strongly countercyclical. I construct and estimate a life-cycle model of couple
households in which spouses make joint search intensity decisions over business cycle. The
model successfully generates spousal effects that are consistent with the data. In the
estimated model, I find that joint search is substitutable for savings as an insurance
mechanism against labor market shocks. The joint-search behavior leads to greater
countercyclicality of workers’ job search intensity; however, the impact varies qualitatively
by household asset level. The cyclicality of search intensity is of interest to policy maker
because it smooths the job finding probability over the business cycle. Policy makers who
overlook the cyclical variations in search intensity would suspect structural shifts in the
matching between unemployment and vacancy, and prescribe remedies that may be
unnecessary.
Chapter Two: Why Can't Long-term Unemployed Workers Find Jobs? (Joint with Rebecca
Lessem, Carl Sanders and Ian Schmutte)
Movements from unemployment to employment have “negative duration dependence”: a
longer duration in unemployment means a lower rate of transitioning into the labor market.
This means that workers who have been unemployed for a long time cannot find jobs. The
goal of this project is to understand the mechanisms driving negative duration dependence
in unemployment, and through this analyze the long-term unemployment problem the US
currently faces. We focus on three factors that we believe to be important. The first is a loss
of skills and training as workers spend more time out of the labor market (human capital
depreciation). The second explanation is that workers are being statistically discriminated
against. The third is heterogeneity in job offer rates for unemployed workers. The
contribution of this paper will be to evaluate the relative importance of each. Our ability to do
this is heavily dependent on the data source we will use: the US Census Bureau's Longitudinal
Employer and Household Data (the LEHD).
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Berk Yavuzoglu
Citizenship: Turkey
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Office: (608) 263-2327
Cell: (608) 695-2803
E-mail: yavuzoglu@wisc.edu
http://ssc.wisc.edu/~byavuzog/
Degrees:
Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, expected 2015
M.A. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2010
M.A. in Economics, Koc University, Istanbul, 2008
B.S. in Mathematics & B.A. in Economics, Koc University, Istanbul, 2006
Dissertation Title:
Essays on Applied Economics
Abstract Summary:
The first essay uses a dynamic programming model to analyze the labor supply
decisions of people beyond normal retirement age in the U.S. Behavioral models
looking at the labor supply decisions of this age group are scant in the literature.
I provide estimates for the effects of Social Security (SS) benefit amounts, FICA
taxes, the year 2000 SS amendments and wages on the elderly labor supply
decision. The second essay analyzes personal bankruptcy behavior in a dynamic
life cycle framework with an emphasis on labor supply and health insurance
enrollment decisions. The third essay yields a convenient semi-parametric bias
correction framework for handling endogenous attrition and substitution
behavior for datasets that have a short panel component.
References:
John Kennan (Primary Advisor) - jkennan@ssc.wisc.edu
James R. Walker - walker@ssc.wisc.edu
Rasmus Lentz- rlentz@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“Labor Force Attachment Beyond Normal Retirement Age,” Job Market
Paper, September 2014
“Understanding Personal Bankruptcy Behavior: A Structural Model with
Emphasis on Labor Supply and Health Insurance Enrollment Decisions,” with
Xiaodong Fan, February 2013
“Rescaled Additively Non-Ignorable Model of Attrition: A Convenient SemiParametric Bias Correction Framework for Data with a Short Panel Component”,
with Emre Ekinci and Insan Tunali, July 2012
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant: Introductory and Intermediate Microeconomics, Financial
Management - MBA, Corporate Finance (at UW-Madison), Labor Economics,
Econometrics - MA and BA, Macroeconomics (at Koc University, Istanbul)
Research Experience:
Project Assistant – Prof. James R. Walker (2011-2012)
Project Assistant – Prof. Rasmus Lentz (2010-2012)
Research Assistant – Prof. Insan Tunali (2007-2008)
Fields of Interest:
Labor Economics, Public Economics, Applied Microeconomics
Essays on Applied Economics
Dissertation Abstract
Berk Yavuzoglu
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Chapter 1: Labor Force Attachment Beyond Normal Retirement Age
The labor force participation decisions of the elderly in the U.S. deserve special attention due to their high
participation rates beyond the normal retirement age, which is 66 currently. This paper analyzes the joint
determination of labor supply, consumption (savings) and the decision to apply for SS benefits of elderly
single males. I use a dynamic programming formulation and restricted data from the Health and Retirement
Study. Behavioral models studying the labor supply decisions of this age group are scant in the literature.
In my study, I focus on the participation decision rather than the retirement decision because a significant
portion of the elderly return to work after being non-participant for a while. I account for this through
positive wage and health shocks. The estimated model helps explain the role of incentives provided by the
labor market to the elderly. Using counter-factual analysis, I find that the labor force participation decision
is sensitive to changes in FICA tax amounts, SS benefits and wages on the extensive margin, but the effect
on the intensive margin is small. While decreasing SS benefits by 20 percent increases the participation rate
of the elderly aged 66-75 by 28 percent, decreasing FICA taxes by 50 percent causes the participation rate
to increase by 6 percent for the age group 66-70. Moreover, the year 2000 SS amendment decreases the
participation rate of the elderly aged 66-70 by 2.5 percentage points, which is roughly equivalent to the
effect of decreasing wages by 1 percent for the elderly.
Chapter 2: Understanding Personal Bankruptcy Behavior: A Structural Model with Emphasis on
Labor Supply and Health Insurance Enrollment Decisions (with X. Fan)
Bankruptcy filing is a drastic event that millions of Americans face in their lives. In 2010, almost one-sixth
of Americans aged between 45 and 53 or their spouses had filed bankruptcy at least once in their lives,
among which one-fifth had filed bankruptcy twice or more. To the extent of our knowledge, this is the first
paper analyzing personal bankruptcy behavior in a dynamic life cycle framework. We aim to analyze the
joint decision of labor supply, consumption, bankruptcy filing and health insurance enrollment using the
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data. In order to have a clear understanding of the personal
bankruptcy behavior, we build five possible causes for filing bankruptcy into our model: job loss, health
care bills, credit misuse, marital disruption and lawsuit/harassment. This allows us to measure the
effectiveness of current bankruptcy laws and generate policy recommendations.
Chapter 3: Rescaled Additively Non-Ignorable Model of Attrition: A Convenient Semi-Parametric
Bias Correction Framework for Data with a Short Panel Component (with I. Tunali and E. Ekinci)
We modify the Additively Non-ignorable (AN) model of Hirano et. al. (2001) so that it is suitable for data
collection efforts that have a short panel component. Our modification yields a convenient semi-parametric
bias correction framework for handling endogenous attrition and substitution behavior that can emerge
when multiple visits to the same unit are planned in a survey. We apply our methodology to data from the
Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) in Turkey, which shares a key design feature (namely a rotating
sample frame) with popular surveys such as the Current Population Survey and the European Union Labor
Force Survey. The correction amounts to adjusting the observed joint distribution over the state space using
reflation factors expressed as parametric functions of the states occupied in subsequent rounds. Unlike
standard weighting schemes, our method produces a unique set of corrected joint probabilities that are
consistent with the margins used for computing the published cross-section statistics. Our empirical results
show that attrition/substitution in HLFS is statistically and substantially important.
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Department of Economics
NAME:
Mariyana Zapryanova
Address:
Department of Economics
University of Wisconsin-Madison
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Citizenship: Bulgaria
Phone: (608) 770-6260
E-mail: zapryanova@wisc.edu
https://sites.google.com/site/mzapryanova
Degrees:
Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Expected 2015
M.S. Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2012
B.A. Economics & Mathematics, summa cum laude, Lake Forest College, 2009
Dissertation Title:
Three Essays on the Economics of Crime
Abstract Summary:
The first essay of my dissertation investigates how release before full completion
of sentence affects recidivism. To deal with potential omitted variable bias of
time in prison and time on parole, I rely on random assignment of judges to
felony cases and the discontinuities generated by the parole release process in
Georgia. The second essay looks at the link between crime rates and daylight
using the discontinuity in daytime sunlight along the strips of counties adjacent
to the three major time zone lines in the continental US. The third essay studies
the impact of social interactions and peer effects in different correctional
facilities on recidivism.
References:
Steven Durlauf (Main Advisor) – sdurlauf@ssc.wisc.edu
John Karl Scholz – jkscholz@ls.wisc.edu
Jesse Gregory – jmgregory@ssc.wisc.edu
Alan Sorensen (Teaching) – sorensen@ssc.wisc.edu
Papers:
“The Effects of Time in Prison and Time on Parole on Recidivism”
(Job Market Paper), 2014
“Crime and Sunlight: Evidence from the US Time Zone Lines,” 2012
“Understanding the Role of Prisons on Recidivism” (with Kegon Tan), in
progress, 2014
Teaching Experience:
Teaching Assistant, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Intermediate Microeconomics, Spring 2013
Principles of Macroeconomics (Head TA), Fall 2012, Summer 2012
Principles of Microeconomics (Head TA), Spring 2012
Current Economics: Issues and Policy, Fall 2011
Principles of Macroeconomics (Business Learning Center), Spring 2011
Principles of Macroeconomics, Fall 2010
Research Experience:
Project Assistant, Health Policy Research Group, Population Health Institute,
University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2013-2014
Fields of Interest:
Public Economics, Law and Economics, Health Economics
Three Essays on the Economics of Crime
Dissertation Abstract
Mariyana Zapryanova
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Chapter 1. The Effects of Time in Prison and Parole Supervision on Recidivism: Evidence from the
Interaction between Judges and Parole Boards
Every year roughly 600,000 people get released from prison, of which eighty percent without serving their
whole sentence behind bars. This chapter investigates how release before full completion of sentence affects
recidivism. To deal with the issue of endogeneity of time in prison and time on parole, I rely on random
assignment of judges to felony cases in Georgia and the discontinuities generated by the formulaic
calculation of recommended time to serve in prison by the Georgia parole board. I find that time on parole
has no significant effect on recidivism, while time in prison has a small negative effect of 1.7 percentage
points. Further, I explore the interaction between the sentencing authority (judges) and the prison release
authority (parole boards) in determining punishment in the criminal justice system. I find that ideological
differences across judges do not affect the decision of the parole board to release prisoners who have had
no disciplinary infractions in prison and most probably, are rehabilitated, while it does for those prisoners
with at least one infraction.
Chapter 2. Crime and Darkness: Evidence from the US Time Zone Lines
Crime generates substantial costs to society at individual, community, and national level. This chapter
contributed to understanding the process by which criminals decide to act by building on Becker’s (1968)
crime model. In my model, I allow darkness and clock time to influence crime levels by affecting the
suitability and accessibility of the potential crime victims. I test the predictions of the model by examining
the link between crime rates and daylight using the discontinuity in daytime sunlight along the strips of
counties adjacent to the three major time zone lines in the continental U.S. My empirical analysis uses
police reports of crime incidents occurring in those counties between 2000 and 2008. Controlling for
various county and day specific characteristics, I find that crossing the time zone lines from east to west
significantly inflates crime rates for offenses facilitated by darkness, and has no effect on other types of
criminal activity. The effect is quite substantial for some crimes—car theft rate—while small for others—
burglary. As a further evidence of the role of sunlight on crime, I find that the distribution of crimes for
counties on the west and east sides of the time zone boundary to differ by a one-hour shift.
Chapter 3. Understanding the Role of Prisons on Recidivism (joint with Kegon Tan)
Recidivism rates are of interest to policy makers due to the high cost of imprisonment and the high rate of
ex-prisoners returning back to prison. Ideally, offenders are punished and rehabilitated so that they do not
recidivate. In a joint work with Kegon Tan, I analyze the impact that offenders serving time in the same
correctional facility have on each other’s subsequent criminal behavior. We draw data on almost 200,000
individual serving time in county or state jails and private or state prisons in Georgia over the past few
decades. These data provide a complete record of past crimes, facility assignments, duration at each facility,
and recidivism for each individual, which allow us to examine the social networks and peer effects in each
facility and their impact on individual decision to reoffend. Further, since we observe each prison episode
of every individual who went through the Georgia Department of Correction, we are able to give a “lifecycle” understanding of facility-related determinants of recidivism.