Strictly Private & Confidential Trading and Transaction Multiples Trading Comparables Introduction Trading Comparables Most Widely Used Valuation Tool What is it? Use of Trading Multiples Importance Valuation tool based on how comparable companies are valued by the stock market as a multiple of profit, sales or other parameters Assumes that the stock market is relatively efficient in valuing comparable companies Identify Comparable Companies Select Appropriate Multiples Buy-side M&A high Sell-Side M&A high Merger of Equals high Initial Public Offering high Add-on financings low Share repurchases low Leveraged Buy-out low Calculate Multiples 1 Check and Interpret the Results Identify Comparable Companies Trading Comparables Identify Companies with Similar Business Mix, Size, Operations and Capital Structure Talk to the right people – Industry Teams Previous presentations Business Mix Equity research reports Competition section in 10K / Prospectus Other sources: Hoover’s in-depth records Products Markets Served Customers Size Assets Revenues Profitability Operations 2 Production Process Operational Gearing Capital Structure Leverage Dividend Payout Growth / Risk Select Appropriate Multiples Trading Comparables Enterprise Value vs. Equity Value Multiples Equity Value Multiples Enterprise Value Multiples Capital Structure ―as is‖ Unlevered Capital Structure Denominator after interest expense Denominator before interest expense Main multiples are Main multiples are – P/E ratio – EV / Sales – Price/Book ratio – EV / EBITDA – PEG ratio – EV / EBIT or EV / EBITA – EV / Capital Employed – EV / Subscribers (telecom, similar ratios based on operating figures in other industries) 3 Select Appropriate Multiples Trading Comparables Choice of the Multiple Depends on Industry, Profitability, Accounting Regimes Multiple EV / Sales Advantage Meaningful for loss-making companies Very limited impact of accounting differences No distortions based on different depreciation policies EV/EBIT(A) Takes capital intensity into account EV / Capital Employed Based on invested capital, which determines potential earnings power EV/EBITDA EV / Subscriber (or other metrics) P/E Ratio Based on industry-specific value-driver Focuses on earnings to shareholders Disadvantage Does not take differences in profitability into account Does not take differences in capital intensity into account Possible distortions based on different accounting policies Does not take differences in profitability into account Distortions through accounting differences Does not take profitability into account Does not take risk profile based on differences in leverage into account Accounting differences Price / Book Based on equity, which determines earning power 4 Does not take differences in profitability into account Select Appropriate Multiples Trading Comparables Different Industries May Use Different Multiples Industry Multiple Banks Price / Book Comment Telecom EBITDA Industrial EBITA Equity is limiting factor Always look at ROE at the same time No. of subscribers defines maximum revenues Once the network is built, depreciation is not very relevant because no need for near-term replacement capex Depreciation is good proxy for replacement capex Heterogeneous set of companies with different capital intensities 5 Select Appropriate Multiples Trading Comparables Chosing the appropriate period Period Advantage (+)/ Disadvantage(-) Last calendar year + Enables consistent comparison with historic / future calendar years — Last twelve months (LTM) + Provides the most recent historic information — Current calendar year But might be different from the future + Usually the period that the stock market focuses on most — Can be over by several months, and therefore of limited interest for stock market Next calendar year Clearly some degree of uncertainty over the year end result + Focuses on future revenue and profit + Especially relevant for fast-growing companies — ___________________________ Note: NB. Always calendarize financial years to calendar years unless otherwise directed. 6 Projections become less accurate the further you go into the future Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Calculating Enterprise Value Enterprise Value Constituents Capital Providers / Recipients Market Capitalisation + + Common Shareholders Net Debt Bank Debt + Bonds + Finance Leases + Preferred Stock – Cash – Securities Minority Interest Creditors + Minority Interest (at market value if available) Minority Owners – Investments/Associates (at market value if available) Non-Consolidated Companies 7 Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Make Sure that Numerator and Denominator are Consistent! Levered Multiple Unlever Net Debt Denominator Market Cap Net Income Unlevered Multiple Minority interest Bank Debt Numerator Assume full ownership of subs Bonds Leases Preferred Stock Cash Securities Taxes Net Interest Interest Expense Interest Income 8 (market value) Investments and Affiliate (market value) Enterprise Value Minority interest in net income Income from Investments and Affiliates Sales/ EBITDA/ EBIT Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Calculating Market Capitalization on a Fully-Diluted Basis is More Accurate, but the Impact is Usually Low Basic market capitalization = share price of common shares x common shares outstanding Take shares outstanding from latest interim report / 10Q and check news for stock split / capital increases (Bloomberg / Extel / Factset are not always correct but should be used as a cross checks) Check for multiple classes of shares (A + B / Voting + Non-Voting) Fully diluted shares outstanding (treasury stock method) – Fully diluted market capitalization assumes that all in-the-money options become exercised; thereby increasing the share capital = basic shares outstanding + in-the-money options adjustment 9 Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Enterprise Value Calculation – Convertibles How to Treat Convertibles Convertible bonds are debt that can be converted into equity at an agreed conversion price Treatment of convertible bonds in a comparable company analysis depends on whether the bonds are ―in-the-money‖ or ―out-of-the-money‖: “Out-of-the-money” Equity Value < Face Value “In-the-money” – Treat as Financial Debt Equity Value > Face Value – Treat as Equity – Adjust no. of shares – Adjust interest expense 10 Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Enterprise Value Calculation – Investments / Affiliates Accounting for Investments / Affiliates Investments (<20% ownership) How to Treat in Comps – Dividend income is recorded as earned – Do not include dividend income/share in earnings in EBIT – Gains/losses in fair value are recorded in income statement – Deduct investment/affiliate from market capitalization to get to Enterprise Value Affiliates (20% – 50% ownership) – Firm records proportional stake in earnings on income statement (income from affiliate) • At market value if available (i.e. quoted stake) – Earnings represent increase in investment account – Dividends represent return on capital (reduction in account) Treat them as ―non-core‖ • At book value if market value not available Treat them as ―core‖ – Include dividend income/share in earnings in EBIT – Do not adjust market capitalization 11 Calculate Multiples – The Numerator Trading Comparables Enterprise Value Calculation – Minority Interest What is Minority Interest? Item on liability side of balance sheet when a firm’s ownership in a subsidiary is between 50% and 100% How to Treat in Comps – Revenues and EBITDA/EBIT include 100% of the subsidiary’s revenues profit Firm fully consolidates the subsidiary’s revenues, profits and assets – Enterprise value needs to assume full ownership of subsidiaries Add to market capitalisation in your enterprise value calculation Use market value if available – In particular when subsidiary is quoted Minority interest represents the share of the subsidiary’s equity not owned by the firm – Cross check book value of minority interest with minority interest in net income 12 Calculate Multiples – The Denominator Trading Comparables Exclude Non-Recurring Items Look for non-recurring items in P&L, Cash Flow Statement, Management’s Discussion & Analysis of Financial Results and Notes to Financial Statements Adjust Net Income also for tax-effect of non-recurring items Footnote your adjustments! 13 Check and Interpret the Results Trading Comparables After Checking Your Inputs, Always Perform Sanity Checks and Understand Outliers Check inputs against sources Sanity checks – Profit Trend • EPS ’02 > EPS ’01 • P/E ’02 < P/E ’01 – Relative Multiple Comparison • EBIT Multiple > EBITDA Multiple > Revenue Multiple – Compare multiples to outside sources (e.g. research reports) Identify and check outliers. Explain them Comparable companies used in formal valuations will come under intense scrutiny and therefore require the highest level of care in preparation and checking Make 100% sure that the client’s multiples are correct (―career check‖) 14 Check and Interpret the Results Trading Comparables Understand Why the Companies in Your Universe Trade at Different Multiples Reasons why companies trade at different multiples Historic / projected growth rates Competitive position Leverage (P/E Ratios) Capital intensity (EBITDA multiples) Margins (Revenue Multiples) Quality of earnings (i.e. Aggressive accounting) Quality of business mix Regulatory environment Free float Other Market listing (where listed) “Imperfections” Market has different expectations to the broker you used! Mistake or imprecision in spreading comp! Long-term Growth/Risk “Fundamental” 15 Transaction Multiples Introduction Transaction Multiples Most Important in M&A Situations What is it? Use of Transaction Multiples Valuation based on implied multiples of precedent transactions (sales, profit or other parameters) Allows a potential acquiror to assess the price range which vendors have been willing to accept for a company/asset with similar characteristics Dependant on the accurate application of precedent multiples that are relevant benchmarks to the company/asset in question Identify Transactions Importance Buy-side M&A high Sell-side M&A high Leveraged buy-out medium Merger of equals medium Share repurchases low Initial Public Offering none Add-on financings none Find Information Calculate Multiples 16 Check and Interpret the Results Identify Transactions Transaction Multiples Types of Transactions Include Exclude Private Deals where majority was acquired IPOs Tender offer for majority of the shares Share Repurchases Purchase of minority stake which enabled acquiror to take control (use judgment) Block Trades Failed Transactions (usually) 17 Identify Transactions Transaction Multiples Choosing the Transaction Understand Target and Target Sector Gain a clear understanding of the target company’s business including: – Primary competitors – Major deals Define target sector Identify Transactions Check for any previously existing deal sheets in order to verify the completeness of any new deal runs Request a deal run around the target’s business (go back only 2 to 5 years maximum) – Place criteria that limits the scope (size of deals, geographic region, public, majority control, etc.) Sanity check data – ensure that primary competitors and the major deals are within the received information; otherwise, understand why they have not been incorporated 18 Find Information Transaction Multiples Source Transaction Data Difference whether public vs. private target/bidder – Tender (offer) documents filed with relevant stock exchange – Target company annual report, interims – Equity research reports – 8K (US) / disclosure document if transaction is deemed material – Public announcement (e.g. Regulatory News Service in the UK) Company website, News run Useful Databases (use with caution!) - SDC Platinum (industry standard) – Dealogic / M&A Global - Dealogic / M&A Global – Thomson One Banker – M&A Monitor – Bloomberg – Internal Deal Database 19 Calculate Multiples – Enterprise Value Transaction Multiples As for Trading Multiples…but Remember to Take into Account Percentage Acquired Example A buys a 60% stake in B for €120mn 300 €10mn B has net debt of €40mn €20mn 250 €40mn B has minority interest of €20mn 200 B has investments of €10mn 150 €80mn €250mn 100 50 €120mn 0 Purchase Implied Net Debt Price for Value of 60% Stake Stake Not Bought Enterprise Value is €250mn 20 Minority Investments Implied Interest Transaction Value Calculate Multiples – Private Transactions Transaction Multiples Use your Judgement! Get the Transaction Value Right! In share deals, apply the exchange ratio using the acquiror’s share price on the day before the announcement In offers where shareholders have the choice between cash or shares, use cash-based price as this is independent of the quality of the acquiror’s stock (footnote share alternative) Ensure that all shareholders are being treated equally Typical Issues How to Deal With Them In the acquiror’s press release, it does not say whether the purchase price relates to equity value or assumes a debt-free company Purchase price usually means price to acquire the equity Add net debt to calculate the implied enterprise value Part of the purchase price is contingent on a certain future performance of the company (―earn-out‖) Include the earn-out in your transaction value, unless you have reason to believe that the underlying performance criteria will not be met (the same applies to any other deferred consideration) 21 Check and Interpret the Results Transaction Multiples As for Trading Comps Profit Trend – EPS ’02 > EPS ’01 – P/E ’02 < P/E ’01 Relative Multiple Comparison – EBIT Multiple > EBITDA Multiple > Revenue Multiple Compare multiples to outside sources Make 100% sure that transactions made by the client are correctly calculated (―career check‖) 22 Check and Interpret the Results Transaction Multiples “Landmark” Transactions Country Target Acquiror EV/ Consideration Paid (USDm) Implied EV (USDm) 750 750 4.02x 13.1x 18.7x 104.2 n.a. Sales EBITDA EBITA Prod hlm (USD) Cap hlm (USD) Dec-05 China Fujian Sedrin InBev Aug-05 Russia ITB Heineken 356 507 2.20x 17.4x n.a. 187.8 133.4 Jul-05 Colombia Bavaria SABMiller 4,824 7,806 3.90x 10.1x n.a. 287.0 195.1 Aug-04 Russia SUN Interbrew Interbrew 1,093 1,457 2.20x 11.8x 24.5x 84.2 n.a. Jul-04 Canada Molson Adolph Coors 3,594 4,611 2.39x 10.9x 12.3x 221.1 n.a. Mar-04 Brazil AmBev Interbrew 10,607 21,495 4.91x 14.4x 18.5x 331.7 190.7 Feb-04 Denmark Carlsberg Breweries Carlsberg 2,490 8,131 1.39x 7.9x 13.5x 100.4 n.a. Jan-04 Germany Holsten Carlsberg/Bitburger 657 1,339 1.44x 8.8x 11.8x 152.1 n.a. Sep-03 Germany Spaten/Dinkelacker Interbrew 600 550 1.37x 9.1x n.a. 109.9 n.a. Aug-03 Costa Rica/Nicaragua FIFCO Heineken 229 916 n.a. 15.8x n.a. 482.1 n.a. May-03 Italy Birra Peroni (pre earn-out) SABMiller 283 653 1.15x 12.7x n.a. 145.0 n.a. May-03 Portugal Centralcer Scottish & Newcastle 565 746 2.60x 9.6x n.a. 226.1 n.a. May-03 Austria BBAG Heineken 1,698 2,131 2.10x 10.2x 23.9x 163.9 n.a. May-02 USA Miller Brewing Company SAB 2,993 4,993 1.02x 8.2x 10.5x 99.9 n.a. May-02 Brazil Quilmes (Quinsa) AmBev 490 1,732 2.19x 9.4x 19.6x n.a. n.a. Feb-02 Finland Hartwall ABP (OYL) Scottish & Newcastle 1,787 1,974 2.81x 10.1x 14.0x 122.9 n.a. Dec-01 United Kingdom Carling Brewers Adolph Coors 1,727 1,727 0.84x 8.1x 14.1x 146.4 n.a. Aug-01 Germany Becks Interbrew 1,575 1,575 2.10x 13.0x 23.9x 276.4 n.a. Jun-00 United Kingdom Bass Interbrew 2,144 3,459 1.26x 9.5x 14.4x 178.3 n.a. May-00 Denmark Orkla Carlsberg 9,972 14,662 n.a. 6.3x n.a. n.a. n.a. Mar-00 France Kronenbourg Scottish & Newcastle 3,059 3,059 2.14x 13.1x 19.4x 257.1 n.a. Source: Company filings, press releases. 23 Check and Interpret the Results Transaction Multiples Remember! Use qualitative judgement – do not just jump into the numbers Choose a meaningful analysis period – n.b. “valuation bubbles” Eliminate extremes, having understood them A limited number of appropriate and accurate transactions is useful – quality not quantity Look for trends Triple check 24 Appendix Sample Trading Comparables Appendix Trading Comps Europe Carlsberg A/S Carlsberg A/S (Ex-prop) Heineken NV InBev SABMiller plc Scottish and Newcastle plc North America Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc Molson Coors Brewing Co. Dec-06 Cash P/E Dec-07 Dec-08 8.1x 7.2x 9.0x 9.9x 9.8x 11.6x 24.7x 20.7x 24.6x 24.2x 25.5x 21.4x 19.6x 16.4x 19.8x 20.3x 21.3x 20.5x 15.9x 13.4x 16.8x 16.7x 18.3x 18.9x 9.1x 10.6x 8.8x 9.5x 18.7x 25.4x 17.1x 20.1x 16.2x 16.5x 11.4x 10.2x 9.3x 23.1x 19.4x 16.6x 10.3x 15.3x 10.2x 9.3x 10.9x 9.1x 7.5x 8.3x 8.7x 20.8x 65.3x 17.0x 17.7x 32.4x 15.9x 14.2x 17.9x 13.6x 13.8x 13.0x 12.3x 40.1x 37.7x 33.9x Net Debt (EURm) EV (EURm) Dec-06 6,608 5,535 22,622 35,771 29,160 10,099 2,701 2,701 2,077 6,533 4,685 3,163 9,772 8,699 26,439 55,366 35,758 13,622 10.4x 9.2x 11.2x 13.1x 13.1x 13.1x 8.9x 7.9x 10.0x 11.2x 11.3x 12.4x 24,902 6,549 5,479 1,398 30,381 8,079 9.7x 11.6x Average Other Europe Anadolu Efes Efes Breweries Intl. Baltika EV/EBITDA Dec-07 Dec-08 Equity Value (EURm) 3,172 916 5,614 517 253 58 3,771 1,176 5,672 Average Notes (1) Share prices and exchange rates as of 09 November 2007 (2) Financials calendarised to 30-Dec y/e; Excl. exceptional items; proforma recent acquisitions; EBITDA incl. income from associates; Minority Interests Valued at Illustrative Market Value. 25 Sample Trading Comparables – Mature Beer Appendix Transaction Comps Country Target Acquiror EV/ Consideration Paid (USDm) Implied EV (USDm) 356 356 1.92x 12.5x 17.0x 250.0 n.a. Sales EBITDA EBITA Prod hlm (USD) Cap hlm (USD) Aug-06 Canada Sleeman Sapporo Jul-04 Canada Molson Adolph Coors 3,594 4,611 2.39x 10.9x 12.3x 221.1 n.a. Feb-04 Denmark Carlsberg Breweries Carlsberg 2,490 8,131 1.39x 7.9x 13.5x 100.4 n.a. Jan-04 Germany Holsten Carlsberg/Bitburger 657 1,339 1.44x 8.8x 11.8x 152.1 n.a. Sep-03 Germany Spaten/Dinkelacker Interbrew 600 550 1.37x 9.1x n.a. 109.9 n.a. May-03 Italy Birra Peroni (pre earn-out) SABMiller 283 653 1.15x 12.7x n.a. 145.0 n.a. May-03 Portugal Centralcer Scottish & Newcastle May-03 Austria BBAG Heineken Apr-03 United Kingdom HP Bulmer Scottish & Newcastle May-02 USA Miller Brewing Company Feb-02 Finland Dec-01 United Kingdom Aug-01 565 746 2.60x 9.6x n.a. 226.1 n.a. 1,698 2,131 2.10x 10.2x 23.9x 163.9 n.a. 262 442 1.21x 7.1x 12.2x n.a. n.a. SAB 2,993 4,993 1.02x 8.2x 10.5x 99.9 n.a. Hartwall ABP (OYL) Scottish & Newcastle 1,787 1,974 2.81x 10.1x 14.0x 122.9 n.a. Carling Brewers Adolph Coors 1,727 1,727 0.84x 8.1x 14.1x 146.4 n.a. Germany Becks Interbrew 1,575 1,575 2.10x 13.0x 23.9x 276.4 n.a. Jul-01 Germany Diebels Interbrew 100 125 1.41x 7.8x 21.8x 85.9 n.a. Nov-00 Switzerland Feldschlösschen Carlsberg 493 493 0.85x 6.9x 14.5x 205.4 n.a. Aug-00 Portugal Centralcer Scottish & Newcastle 139 283 n.a. 8.6x n.a. 104.9 n.a. Jun-00 United Kingdom Bass Interbrew 2,144 3,459 1.26x 9.5x 14.4x 178.3 n.a. May-00 United Kingdom Whitbread Interbrew 662 662 0.40x 5.6x 10.1x 65.0 n.a. May-00 Denmark Orkla Carlsberg 9,972 14,662 n.a. 6.3x n.a. n.a. n.a. Mar-00 France Kronenbourg Scottish & Newcastle 3,059 3,059 2.14x 13.1x 19.4x 257.1 n.a. 26 Sample Trading Comparables – Emerging Beer Appendix Transaction Comps Country Target Acquiror EV/ Consideration Paid (USDm) Implied EV (USDm) Sales EBITDA EBITA Prod hlm (USD) Cap hlm (USD) Aug-06 Vietnam Foster's Vietnam Asia Pac Breweries (Hein JV) 105 105 4.02x 28.0x 104.4x 141.3 95.5 Aug-06 India Foster's India Ops and Brand SABMiller 120 120 8.46x 95.1x 221.4x 518.9 342.9 May-06 Romania Interbrew Efes (JV take out) InBev 27 53 n.a. n.a. n.a. 44.2 35.4 Jan-06 Russia Krasny Vostock Efes Breweries International 360 390 n.a. n.a. n.a. 149.4 39.0 Jan-06 Russia Yarpivo Minority Take-out BBH/Baltika 234 622 n.a. 12.2x 16.4x 117.3 103.6 Jan-06 Bosnia-Hertzegovina Banjalucka Pivara Altima Partners 14 26 1.35x 10.4x -14.4x 76.0 25.8 Dec-05 China Fujian Sedrin InBev 750 750 4.02x 13.1x 18.7x 104.2 n.a. Sep-05 China K.K. InBev 62 62 n.a. 4.1x n.a. 22.8 20.5 Aug-05 Russia ITB Heineken 356 507 2.20x 17.4x n.a. 187.8 133.4 Jul-05 Russia Stepan Razin Heineken 119 119 n.a. n.a. n.a. 85.2 n.a. Jul-05 Russia Baikal Heineken 48 48 n.a. n.a. n.a. 80.6 n.a. Jul-05 Colombia Bavaria SABMiller 4,824 7,806 3.90x 10.1x n.a. 287.0 195.1 Jul-05 Russia Tinkoff InBev 201 201 4.74x n.a. n.a. n.a. 87.6 May-05 Russia Patra Heineken 71 71 n.a. n.a. n.a. 100.9 n.a. Apr-05 China Snowland Brewery China Resources Brewery (SABM) 15 15 n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.6 10.7 Dec-04 India UB Scottish & Newcastle 171 456 n.a. n.a. n.a. 138.2 n.a. Sep-04 China Lion Nathan China China Resources Brewery 71 154 n.a. n.a. n.a. 70.3 29.8 Oct-04 Russia Sobol Heineken 22 22 n.a. n.a. n.a. 111.6 n.a. Aug-04 Russia Volga Heineken 74 74 n.a. n.a. n.a. 105.6 n.a. Aug-04 Russia Shikhin Heineken 99 99 n.a. n.a. n.a. 98.5 n.a. Aug-04 Serbia-Montenegro 7 Septambar (Zajecar Brewery) Efes Breweries International 15 23 n.a. n.a. n.a. 51.4 22.6 Aug-04 Russia SUN Interbrew Interbrew 1,093 1,457 2.20x 11.8x 24.5x 84.2 n.a. Jun-04 China Zhejiang Brewery Interbrew 53 76 n.a. 11.6x n.a. 38.0 n.a. Jun-04 China Harbin Anheuser-Busch 675 787 4.38x 17.5x 31.6x 68.4 n.a. Mar-04 Brazil AmBev Interbrew 10,607 21,495 4.91x 14.4x 18.5x 331.7 190.7 27