“HSL--meets fast world changes with unchanging eternal philosophies”
Suddenly the Big Picture looks
Big
Picture
like a Big Gulp, & a gasp or two.
Stock markets are freezing up. No price traction. Volume
shrunken. Volatility at historic lows. Political polarity in the
US (& worldwide vs the US) more emotional than anyone
alive can remember. Currencies, normally safe for medium-term moves, suddenly whip around like soybean futures. Interest rates are causing grey hair to those who will
suffer if they move as high as money supply hints they
could. Eight Central banks are printing money on a larger
nominal, real & % scale than since the 1920’s. US Fed has
broken the sound barrier with credit creation. Govts are
proving the stupidity of the public by repeating the mantra
that inflation is not a worry, when the data & charts prove
otherwise. Taxi drivers, housewives & retirees know govts
are lying. Reminds us that Hitler said: “What good fortune
for govts that the people do not think.”
Time is now a critical factor in all the above. Normally,
which US political party wins does not affect stk mkts very
much; data proves that. This time will be very different, if
only because of the multi-billions being spent on wars—
which will by admission escalate under Bush & diminish
under Kerry. The
cost of Iraq is
still being kept
secret by US
Deputy Secretary
of
Defense
Wolfowitz.
He
dare not lie so
he
says
he
“doesn’t know”
the cost. But after the Nov 2
election, those
costs will need
to be revealed. I hear they will be shocking. ••The political
climate will also change if Kerry is elected, partly because it
would represent a public rejection of Bush policies. If Bush
is re-elected, the polarization will not soon disappear, IMO.
In short, a political sea-change seems possible in the US,
whichever way the vote goes. The polarization outside the
US won’t go away either if Bush wins; feelings run too high.
Another time factor: Many US military chiefs want a return of the draft as US forces are stretched thin around the
world & dangerously so in Afghan & Iraq. The Pentagon want
to increase the navy by 1/3rd! Both ships & men. What men?
Who will pay? Taxpayers? Yes & no. Maybe not mainly via
direct taxes but partly via inflation (the renown hidden tax).
Two bills are now before Congress to bring back the draft
(S.89 & HR 163) for men & women. They are poised for a
vote, right after the election, I’m told. If Bush wins, many
will wave goodbye to sons, daughters & grand-kids age 1624 as they’re called up. If Kerry wins? Draft less likely, I’m
told. ••Note: much also hinges on whether Congress stays
in GOP hands or reverts to Dems.
“Merlin”, at the US Fed
isn’t likely to wave his wand
to raise interest rates very
“ HSL-HSL-—the Newsletter much pre Nov 2, per his secret pact with GWB, which
with a Global
could risk some bubbleConscience.”
popping. Yet, the pressure
from bond mkts makes that
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
The Original
International Newsletter
HSL
THE UNITED
STATES OF HSLM
AMBASSADORS
Harry Schultz Life Strategies
• Financial • Health • Geopolitical • Philosophical • Life Tactics
AKA: HSL, &/or The International Harry Schultz Letter
~ For THINKING humanoids ~ (in 80 nations)
Single copy price : US$50, SwFr63, £27, €41, A$70, C$66, 0.13 oz Gold
HSL 642 August 8, 2004 - DJIA 9,815
© Copyright F.E.R.C.
a dangerous game---keeping the
IN THIS ISSUE :
lid on a heating pot. Makes for a
bigger pop later. But moss- 1984 …………………………. 3
covered Merlin isn’t reluctant to 40 years (forecasting) ……. 2
increase the broad money supply, M3, at $50bil a week, which Closed positions ………... 10
will, if continued, add over $2.5 Futures (back to) ………... 11
trillion in a year. My friend, ex Gold …………………………. 5
CEO Raleigh Shaklee, believes Health (light therapy) …….. 6
“this almost unbelievable inflation of ‘money’ is likely to end or HSL investment box ……... 9
let up after Nov, regardless of HSL masthead …………….. 3
election result. Reversal of the HSL model pf …………….. 10
monetary pendulum will signal HSL services box …………. 6
massive corrections in markets HSL web box ………………. 4
worldwide.” He concludes: “It
would be only the beginning of HSLP (market predictor) ...10
truly hard times. And if they do New Country ………………. 4
not stop the printing presses, it Nutshell …………………… 11
will be the beginning stage of hy- Off the cuff …………………. 7
per-inflation.” I might have
phrased it differently, but it’s hard Open positions ……………. 9
to fault Raleigh’s directional logic. Potpourri ………………….. 12
The time window is narrow- Recommendations (new) ..10
ing. In the few wks til Nov 2, all Tech stress (wrong way) ... 3
this may come more clearly into Trek …………………………. 5
focus & the listless mkts of today Uncles notes ……………... 12
will probably begin forming chart
patterns that reveal which way US Mkts …………………….. 7
the economy, stocks, bonds, War & pieces ………………. 6
metals, commodities & curren- World mkts analysis ………8
cies will push. Will they form coil Your voices ………………... 4
springs to rise or toppy patterns?
In Oct HSL, I hope to be able to see & correctly analyze
which way each separate mkt will jump. Between now &
then U should watch prices, volumes & trends to draw preliminary conclusions. Our FMU & GCRU website updates
will serve as backups for U also. Meantime, stay with all
energy stocks (coal, gas, oil, pipelines, energy svcs), hold
gold bullion & coins U already own, sell semi conductors &
most financial svc stks, & get set to trade (not hold) gold
stocks in their next stage (see inside). Tech stocks? Lighten
up. Why? See US
"Few of us can easily surrender our
Mkt section.
Copper
stocks belief that society must somehow
should rise after cur- make sense. The thought that the
rent correction, says State has lost its mind & is
Ed Yardini. And I punishing so many innocent people
agree. If U hold de- is intolerable. And so the evidence
fense stks (eg, Boe- has to be internally denied."
--Arthur Miller
ing, Raytheon, Gen-
... The Letter for Millionaires — current & prospective (& former) ...
1
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
eral Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed) watch ’em
carefully. IMO, they’ll be buys or rebuys if Bush wins, sells if
Kerry wins. Their charts may tip us ahead of Nov 2. If polls
lean more strongly toward GB, U can begin buying & increase after 11/2. If polls lean toward JK, begin selling &
more after 11/2. ••Much US military spending accounting
has been pushed to post-election. 2005 will see the truth &
almost certainly a deficit skystreak. If so, it will push US$
to lower levels. Result: push inflation higher, along with
gold & commodities. Property is a bubble, but its sell-by
date will probably be delayed till the bigger inflation ahead
is tamed. Property doesn’t usually fall in inflations, but
high int.rates can restrain it. Depends size. Use bond rally
to exit bonds longer than 3yrs. Be out by USTB 104-105.
Rally sucks in fundamentalists.
NYTimes reports: “Rarely has a presidential campaign
been this intense, this polarized, this partisan, this early.
It’s only July, but the battle is already joined.” And rarely
has the ROW (rest of world) been so interested in a US
election. If they could vote they would, according to an
Economist mag poll, elect Kerry (“anybody but Bush” is the
usual answer) by an astonishing 94% margin. “The ROW
wants a regime change in Washington” says Boston Globe.
European Studies Centre, Oxford, says “If Bush loses, ROW
will say this was a difficult period but an aberration from
the norm. If Bush wins there’ll be a long-term effect on
European {& ROW, IMO} policy & development of a permanent rift between US & EU.”
Bush’s unilateral approach to everything (from land
mines & Iraq to Kyoto & world court) is the main ROW complaint. ESC says “Bush’s willingness to flout int’l law will
cause Europe to define ourselves against America. U will
become ‘the other’ for Europeans.” Says Kerry will disconnect Iraq from the war on terror. “With Kerry there will be
dialogue, not dogma.” Center for European Reform, London
think-tank, says “This is a foreign policy election for the US
& a defining election for the world.” Americans seem almost unmoved by world opinion, but are deeply divided.
The US is currently called 1 country, 2 nations. ••By the
way, absentee ballots of expat Americans & soldiers will be
extremely critical if the count is close. With so many military abroad, the number is large & if ballots arrive late, as
is usual, the winner may not be known on Nov 2. Meantime,
watch the polls, which may cast a shadow & help U make
profitable investment decisions, hopefully before Nov 2.
Newsbites that bite: US deficit rising its fastest since
1993. •••Pimco chief Bill Gross, world’s biggest bond
fund mgr says “US economy less stable than in past 2030yrs; US$ supported by kindness of Japan/China, should
be 20% lower, & they will change that support—we just
don’t know when.” Says banks are playing the carry trade,
borrowing short, lending long, things not done before. Lots
of risk in economy. •••The Great Mall of China is a wild
card in forecasting here. Are there 2 go-slows? China
growth & US consumer buying. Or only 1 or none? It’s unknown at moment. IsTGMofC thus a major cause of the
mkts freezing up? Probably. (See stopress in Uncle’s Notes)
•Europe inflation rate up to 2.5% (admitted) from
2.0. •••U can make a case for anything, with selective
data. So very much is judgmental. U must fight not to pick
out factors U like.
like •••The struggle for perspective is what
drives Big Picture. Eg, an S&P chart in euro currency terms,
not US$’s, shows the May-June S&P rally was been between modest & tiny. Shows how much it matters to be
tuned-in to currencies. •••US Treasury chief Snow says
2
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
the US govt is not a guarantor of FannieMae & FreddieMac’s $3 trillion in mortgages. When we get into deep
stagflation in say 2yrs, this will be the loose cannon on the
economic ship of state. Meantime, the stocks are a
sell. •••3 cheers to private enterprize for launching a private space ship! I guess I’ll have to organize an HSL space
ship for Hslms who want to take a day trip into space. Or
push off to another planet due to the pollution, politics &
fraud on Earth. Book early! ☺
markets is hardly an easy occuForecasting
pation! Yet, through major bull &
bear mkts, HSL has persevered for 40 years,
years an event we
celebrate today. But HSL didn’t just survive for 4 decades.
HSL led the parade in many areas. Scores followed & multiplied. I feel like a Godfather to a myriad of ideas & life & mkt
strategies that have been adopted around the world. Newer
readers will be surprised, even shocked,
shocked to learn that HSL
boldly went where no one went before. Longtime readers will
smile in remembrance. Here’s a list, as best I can recall,
which I predict U’ll find truly amazing:
•HSL has been written on every continent, & in many
cases printed there too, during short residencies (eg,
HongKong, Switzerland, Denmark, US, SoAfrica, Belgium, UK).
•HSL was first to recommend international investing to a
then-insular public, & even wrote a book (Harpers&Row) in
early 70’s on Terms &Tactics for the Int’l Investor. •HSL was
first NL (newsletter) to cultivate “friends in high places,” top
intellectuals like Nobel prize winner von Hayek, & finance
ministers & tiptop politicians—from Japan to Germany to
SoAfr to the UK & US. •HSL was first to establish contacts
around the world to tap for readers, before most news organizations even had global contacts on the ground. CNN & CNBC
were not even dreamed of. •HSL was first to have experts &
top central bank & govt officials speak at seminars and take
time to talk to ordinary investors one-on-one. •HSL was first
to recommend foreign currencies to Americans, which some
thought unpatriotic! (can U imagine?)
It’s hard to remember what a different world it was 3040yrs ago! •HSL was first to recommend foreign bank accounts to readers. •HSL was one of first to recommend gold
stks, long before it was legal for some citizens (eg, US/UK) to
own physical gold. •HSL was part of the original hard-money
movement that arguably was the main reason gold became
legal for US citizens to own. Jim Blanchard (who called us his
mentor) spearheaded that cause, flying a banner over Nixon’s
inauguration saying: Legalize Gold! •HSL was easily the most
international NL from the start, often preferring to gogo-see
what was happening rather than be anchored at home. •We
wrote the first ever book on bear mkts (PrenticeHall). •We
invented the investment seminar for average investors, bringing brains to our doorstep.
We mentored the Githlers, Blanchard, Vern Myers, & a few
others, then retired from seminars. Many achieved fame after
appearing at a Schultz seminar, which were held in several
nations. •HSL was first NL to savvy & explain the connection
between politics, govt action, & mkts. Hence, first to discuss
major geopolitical issues & their mkt effect. Others just talked
about stocks & DJIA. •We pioneered charting when it was
deemed by most an untried theory & way-out. •Schultz
Schultz Clubs
sprang up around the world in the 70’s, headquartered in Holland where HSL was based for a year. •We were the first NL
to attend IMF meetings. •HSL was first to recommend So Afr
gold shares, thought an outrageous idea at first but proved
the biggest money-spinner of any group in the world.
... “Decriminalize & tax drugs to reduce street crime & reduce govt violation of individual privacy & rights.” H.D.Schultz …
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
•HSL was first & still is the main NL that points to the
folly of making money if individual (not national) freedom is
limited. We labour in the vineyards of liberty. •We exchanged
words for action in founding an HSL hospital for orphaned or
injured Afghan children on the Pakistan-Afghan border &
treated 200,000 kids. •We created the PT concept, then a
daring idea, which has now grown into an industry! •HSL &
HS received more awards than any NL & probably more than
all other NL’s combined, worldwide. (eg, 2 Man of the Year
awards; 2 Freedom Fighter awards; Most Outstanding Newsletter award; A Newsletter Excellence award; Liberty Award
by Congress of Freedom, Original Thinker Award, & aprox 20
others. Personally, we were made a Knight of Malta, later
Knight Commander of St.Agata & 3 other such honours.
•We created our own abbreviated spelling (as G.B.Shaw
also tried), which UK politician/friend Enoch Powell called
Schultzese, which was ahead of its time, & we had to drop it.
But now it’s often seen (like R U for are you) & is widely used
in email by the entire world. Being ahead of your time is
tricky. As Napoleon said: don’t get too far ahead of your
troops. •We also created several words (eg, stagflation),
now commonplace.
•Uniquely, we also tried (for 18yrs) to start a new country, encouraged by Hslms. We came close 3 times, but the
Tri Laterals stepped in. •HSL also formed a newsletter association (IILA) with Vern Myers aid. •We helped with the Euro
arm of Pres. Reagan’s StarWars program. •We were given a
listing in the Guinness Book of World Records in 1981
(which has been ongoing). •HSL was first & largely still alone
to annually publish a list of political & charitable organizations who merit support. •Our HSL family was often knitted
together with HSL ties, scarves, towels, playing cards, cuff
links, pens, parties & reunions.
•HSL has, I believe, more lifetime subscribers than any
NL. While those who pay annually are just as valued, lifers
tend to join to give a longterm vote of confidence & support
to our causes, principles, & beliefs. •Our independentlyminded readers don’t pretend to agree with all we say, but
they accept that even a husband/wife don’t always agree, &
urge us on with renewals despite areas where we differ. •The
list above isn’t complete, but it’s a good sample, eh? Also a
kind of autobiography •I won’t live for another 40 yrs but I’ll
keep producing as long as U want me. It’s your call.
I’m late to report this Boston Globe story but such
1984
good news keeps well: Annoyed by the prospect
of a massive new federal surveillance system, two research-
ers at the Mass. Institute of Technology inaugurated (in
2003) a new Internet service that will let citizens create dossiers on govt officials. The system started by offering standard background info on politicians, but then goes a bold
step further, by asking Internet users to submit their own intelligence reports on govt officials--reports that will be published with no effort to verify their accuracy. "It's sort of a citizen's intelligence agency," said Chris Csikszentmihalyi, assistant professor at MIT Media Lab.
He & graduate student Ryan McKinley created the Govt
Information Awareness (GIA) project in response to US govt's
Total Information Awareness program (TIA). Revealed in
2002, TIA seeks to track possible terrorist activity by analyzing
vast amounts of info stored in govt & private databases, such
as credit card data. The system would use this info to analyze
actions of millions of people, in an effort to spot patterns that
could indicate a terrorist threat. News of the plan outraged civil
libertarians & prompted Congress to set limits on the scope of
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
such activity. Defense Dept then renamed the program Terrorist Info Awareness, to ease [deflect] public concern.
But the controversy gave McKinley the idea for the GIA
project. "If total information exists," he said, "really the same
effort should be spent to make the same information at the
leadership level at least as transparent--in my opinion, more
transparent." McKinley worked with Csikszentmihalyi to design the GIA system. It's partly based on technology used to
create Internet indexes such as Google. Software crawls
around Internet sites that store large amounts of info about
politicians. These include independent political sites like
opensecrets.org, as well as sites run by govt agencies.
McKinley created software that ferrets out useful data from
these sites, & loads it into the GIA database. The result is a 1stop research site for basic info on key officials. (Part II nextime) (courtesyThe New York Times Company)
Like so many things
Wrong
way
round!
in society today,
priorities & direction have been reversed, not for the better.
Among many such is the computer/email/Net world. For 137
yrs or so we communicated very nicely with typewriters as
the only equip U needed. Then came the fax, which was a
faster way to send the things U wrote on typewriters. No big
skill needed to use either. Neither required upgrading. Neither did pencils/pens. But then came computers, the Net,
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The ideas that
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• Editor Emereri: Chevalier Harry D. Schultz, KHC, KM, KCPR, KCSA, KCSS.
• Mkt analyst: John McMillan. Spinner royalty recipient: Paul Griffiths.
• FMU geopolitical editor: Gordon Frisch.
• Quoting HSL permitted if HSL name, address & subscription price given. • Repeated
photocopying of HSL is illegal. Violators will be prosecuted. $2,000 reward for
evidence of consistent violation. • Recommendations to buy or sell any security,
options on securities, futures or options on futures, are opinions of HSL & do not in
any way guarantee or assure that the investor will either make money or avoid losses.
We may/may not buy/sell stocks, bonds, options, commodities recommended in HSL.
• HSL does not advocate the violent over-throw of any govt. • As you are aware,
inserts/flyers are paid for by fee or commission. This is done to defray rising costs.
Without them, subscription rates would need to rise.
• Products/services advised in HSL & flyers are presumed to be of good quality, but
HSL expressly & explicitly disclaims responsibility for them.
• H.S. Consultation fee: US$2,400 per hour. Minimum service (by fax or letter): 30
mins at $1,200. Weekends $3400 per hour. Payment in advance.
• Harry Schultz is also: Founder, Int’l Investment Letter Assoc - 25 year-mbr, Nat’l
Press Club, Washington DC - Advisory Board, Nat’l Taxpayers Union, WashDC Charter mbr, Nat’l Assoc of Investment Advisory Publishers - mbr, Economic
Research Council, London - Advisory Board, Nat’l Comm Monetary Reform - mbr Free
Market Foundation, Joburg , S.A. - mbr Adam Smith Club, London -Life Patron,
Freedom Assoc, London - Listed in Guinness Book of Records as world's highest paid
investment consultant 1981-2003
... “All governments, of course, are against liberty.” H.L.Mencken ...
3
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
email. They promised to save us time & give us more leisure.
They did the opposite & grow worse by the hour.
In addition to learning & upgrading your profession/job U
are now forced to spend as much time coping with computer
problems as U do your job! Like crashes, incompatable upgrades, net failures, viruses, spam, server failures, disappearing files, erasures of what U just typed, data connection problems, glitches, etc. Email often saves us a lot of time, but then
something goes wrong (with the Net, server, line or computer)
& the time saved is now entirely lost (& more) while simultaneously giving U intense stress. As we are now computer dependent, as breakdowns occur, we are inescapably involved & frustrated. It’s also depressing there is an immoral army out there
sending emails to U daily aimed solely at entrapment, to trick/
entice U to download their email & get an instant virus! U must
ever be on your toes; if U slip just once, the virus will cripple U
big time. It’s a permanent Russian roulette game with bullets
in several chambers. And, of course, govts can track U far
more easily by email than by phone or fax. They have backdoor
keys, required by law. Encryption is good but is hard/extra
work, inefficient & requires key coupling with other parties.
The Net also opens the door to excessive input, from
friends & biz. They can push a button & overload 10 or 100
people at once. They steal your time without apology. Computers aren’t really guaranteed, but frustration is guaranteed,
indeed it is built-in. Technicians are often needed to sort out
problems (if U can find one when U need him, & not all can
afford their rocketing fees). Big firms employ teams of technicians to resolve hourly glitches. Stress is a proven killer. So
what have we gained, net, net? Frustration takes the fun out
of life. Something should be done to reverse this dependency. I don’t know the long-term answer, but shorterm it’s
clearly: faxing. If we boycott the Net for most communication, we gain peace of mind, time, privacy, control. My oldest
friend has done this for 75% of his big biz & personal traffic
& loves the result! Stress down 75% also. ☺ Computers
when used as typewriters/word processors perform well. Tie
them to the Net & U risk a black hole where your time & data
disappears. I invite your ideas because we are taking 3 steps
forward & 5 steps back as we are.
Your Voices
“How few realize there are indeed
WMD's that exist & are being
used across the US & many other countries. In this case,
WMD's = Weapons of Mass Disinformation designed to blind
& confuse everyone, & they seem to appear from nowhere at
just the right time(ing) for politicians. I need not name ‘em. U
know. I enjoyed last HSL re your pasta-powered Formula One
car. Stay in the journalistic pole position! For your health column: rub an ice cube on a burn as soon as pos. Same result
as lavender oil. Re your WWII copy: how true. Eisenhower saw
the waste/horror of war & became almost a pacifist. He calculated how much each bomber/fighter cost in lost schools.
Anyone doing that today? Congrats on Big Picture. Keep us in
focus. Ed Lee.” That’s my job.
Since it’s HSL’s 40th birthday, I’m entitled to print a couple
of cozy letters: “I’m glad to contact U again, after some cause
de force majeurs kept me away from my unique HSL ‘Bible’—
as such do I consider the wisdom, shrewd insights & art of
living that our dear Uncle Harry pours into each of his masterful writings! Kindly renew my subscriptions to HSL & GCRU on
a yearly basis. May Uncle Harry & his extremely valuable
team keep on enlightening Humankind for centuries to
come. Isadore Somerville A., Mexico.” That’s a tall order,
Señor, & muchas gracias para las lindas words. •••Not to
4
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
be outdone with encouraging words is Lyle Knudson, Washington, who writes: “I should have gone for an HSL life subscription 10-20 yrs ago, but wasn’t sure U could outlive me,
knowing I’ll only go another 52 years, to 140, & be shot by a
jealous husband. ☺ U’re possibly 10yrs younger than me (88)
& I’m still not sure U can keep going until 2056. Here’s a
joke: Olga: ‘Lena, I hear your husband just died. What were
his last words?’ Lena: ‘Lena, put down the gun!’ Sincerely,
LK.” LK: your humor isn’t dimmed at 88. Make U a deal: I’ll
keep going if U’ll keep going. Ok? ☺
Also in a good mood was Hedy Kauffmann of Australia
who wrote: “Dear Harry, I made a great mistake in not taking a
life subscription as I subscribed only for 1 year each year for
about 30 years! I’ll be 94 on July 17 & still enjoy HSL but lost a
lot of money by not subscribing for a lifetime. Greetings!
Hedy.” I’ll try to visit U at Hunters Hill nextime I’m in Oz. Meantime, may the force be with U! •••From VA: “Your latest Big
Picture is excellent. U did it again. U truly captured the mood in
the US, though written ‘out there’. Objectivity! People here are
nervous, while feeling burned out with corrupt politicos. They
really would rather it all go away, yet they know their future is
at stake. HSL & U get better with age.” All this talk of aging
makes me feel like mellowing Scottish malt whiskey. Cheers!
••From Las Vegas: “Re last HSL: Yes, sports are vicious
these days. They aren’t sports, & players not sportsmen.
Fight match here is like a Roman Coliseum; anything goes
but no lions. Capacity crowd, 10K people, mostly 20-35. Barbaric. 45% women, all with tattoos. Re your class-act contest: how about Mel Gibson as producer/director? Re your
1984: freedom is doomed, due to ‘security’ paranoia. It will
pass but we may not see it. HSL is great. Best, Marvin.”
Agree re Mel Gibson. ••“Dear Harry, re Vermont State motto
as ‘yep.’ You're close, but no cigar. Here in the (gorgeous,
independent-minded!!) Green Mountain State, it's pronounced AYUP. Along with the pronunciation of cows as
CYOWZ, & the modification of a profanity to JEEZUM CROW.
Regards, Bill Morton” Ho,ho,ho. •••I’ve got a lot more mellowing letter for nextime. Thanks to U all. My HSL readers/
family are a collective class act!
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Updates (at least one FMU between each HSL) are available on
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or Free Mkt Update button; or Full Mkt Update button if U are a subscriber to FULL Update service; 6) If reading one & U want to read
the other, click on the BACK button in your browser. Then select
the other Update; 7) If this is not clear—call the Red Cross! ☺
User Name: hslm (not your name!) Password: cheerful
Note: FreeUpdate password changes Sept 5 to: astute
I was in good company when
New
Country
trying to start a new country,
as I did for about 18yrs without success. I just discovered that
US Vice President Aaron Burr tried to start his own country
west of the Mississippi, long after the founding of the US. He
didn’t like the way things were going, even then. ☺ The Republic was being watered down into a democracy. His new
nation plan led contemporaries & a few historians to label
him a traitor. But a jury acquitted Burr, presumably because
...“Silence (when freedom is threatened) is not golden; it is yellow.” Tom Anderson...
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
the Constitution provides for both dissent & for any state to
break away from the Union—something Abe Lincoln ignored
in attacking the South for exercising its right to break away.
Presidents are good at ignoring the Constitution. It restricts
them, which was, of course, its purpose. Like ignoring the requirement that gold&silver are the primary means of exchange or backed thereby.
The Aaron Burr legacy, by coincidence or fate, extends to
one of our HSL team members & from there to our book on
Re-Making the World on breaking up large nations into new
(smaller) nations for better governance. Some say coincidences are not random but occur rationally.
(That Re-Making the World book is still available. It was
written in 1991 & events moved on, but principles don’t
change. Senator Steve Symms said of this book: “A watershed
in political thinking.” Richard Russell said: “A bombshell.” Congressman Phil Crane: “This book coaxes our mind into new
channels.” Howard Phillips: “HS consistently is ahead of his
time, floating new ideas which seem outlandish but which often become mainstream thinking.” Ray Vicker (WSJ) “This
book merits much consideration.” Tom Anderson, writer, once
candidate for US presidency: “Hallelujah! Harry has done it.
Harry is an original thinker.” Leon Richardson (HK columnist &
CEO): “This book surpasses my standards for a worthwhile
book.”) To order this book contact our Swiss or Costa Rica offices. US$20 check or $20 bill preferred. Limited supply)
had an exciting day last Friday, 8/6, after 3 wks
Gold
of sliding—then sideways action. The excitement
was caused by the terrible US jobs report. Gold flashed up $7
to $401.50. It closed at 399.0. But if U step back, U see gold
has been in a shallow sideways movement of $27 (385 to
412) for 2months. And if U step back 1 more step, a broader
sideways move has been going on for over a year, between
370 & 430, a $60pt trading range (T/R). ••I said in last HSL:
don’t expect price rockets til volume increases, & for sure
382 must hold—which it has done (tho it had a scary testdrop to 387). I said if 382 breaks, we’ll see a test of the 373
low. On the upside, I said we need gold to break up & hold
over 400-405. It did so. But I said the target after that was
only 415, but maybe 428. We got to 412 & died there. Why
not higher? I asked on your behalf. Because, IMLO (in my
lonely opinion) we’re in a TR we forecast here a year ago.
Last HSL I showed U a 17-18yr chart illustrating this scenario, which so far has been accurate. It predicts gold will
reach a minimal $580 target when it eventually (prob not in
2004) breaks its reverse/H&S neckline--at 428, which I’ve
mentioned before as the top of the action zone. I’ve been a
lonely gold advocate in NOT forecasting “$500 gold any day
now” for the past 2yrs or so, & that’s been validated! Fortunately, U don’t need $500 gold to make money; in fact vertical mkts are higher risk, as corrections come out of the blue
& sharply. It’s far safer & easier to make money in trading
ranges in any stk, metal, fund, or commodity & as U “know”
the top part of the TR is where U sell & the bottom area is
where U buy. I said in Gold Charts R Us (GCRU) the other day:
when U are happy with the gold mkt, sell. (☺) When U are annoyed with it, buy. (). ••Of course, buy/sell only via the bullion price is not the way to win the game. Except for futures
traders, most buy shares not bullion.
And each gold stk has its own indiv pattern. U should keep
charts of each gold stk U own or may trade. Alternatively, get
my GCRU service where I supply specific prices. But keeping
your own charts (or checking them free via BigCharts on Net)
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
is good in any case to develop a chart feel. •••Meantime,
I’ve cut my recommended % of your portfolio in gold from 2535% to 20-25%. Gold isn’t running away & U can make all
the money U can carry by trading the Trading Range. Later,
when gold breaks, or threatens to break out of this T/R, I’ll
increase the %. I’m also increasing my recom for bear stock
funds by 5% as stk mkts look lower. ••The flipside of gold is,
of course, the US$, which has seemingly built a reverse H&S
pattern, predicted in last Wed’s Gold Charts R Us, before the
right shoulder was more than a blip. Implication: resumption
of the $ rally (in the face of big $ fall on 8/6) & renewed correction in gold. At presstime we’re poised at the make/break
point of this pattern. See Currencies & Futures sections for
guidelines. A tough call just now! ••Planning/tactics pay off
in every investment, & in gold more than most.
We trekked to Switzerland & Paris by train this
time & what a delight are trains. No long drive to
Trek
an airport (train stations are usually mid-city). No departure
delays! No seat belts. No customs. No security check. No Xray of your body & bags. Little or no passport control. No
stress! No ear-pressure, no engine noise. No queue to get on
board. Less struggle to find seat & place bags. No lifethreatening takeoff & landing (the most dangerous part of
flying). Instead, subdued rail spinning, wide windows, views of
sea-side, mountains, or farms, access to snack bar, room to
walk & stretch. No hour drive from airport back to city. No
mid-air collision risk. No skyjack risk. No turbulence. Our
trains were not full. (1st class pays). Porters avail. Why would
anyone fly if given a train option? Is also zero effort vs driving,
though driving beats flying too.
Switzerland is always a breath of fresh air, literally (less
cement & more trees per capita) & psychologically. Enjoyed
visits with friends. Did some R&D. ••To Paris, which was,
well, Paris. It can be whatever U want it to be. Paris still setting trends in architecture, fashion, style. Bot stuff. Our usual
first stop: English book stores. This time to Galignani, 224
rue de Rivoli, the first English bookshop on the Euro continent. Was amazed at the blaze of books on the US election.
Titles: Bushes, Bush vs the Beltway, American Dynasty,
Worse than Watergate, The Bush Haters Handbook, Madame
Hillary, The Price of Loyalty, Tyranny in America, Power
Plays, Where’s My Country? Bush Quotes-raves, rants,
Thieves in High Places, John Kerry, How to take America
Back from the Far Right. etc!
Enjoyed a boat trip on the Seine which is worth doing
every 1-2yrs; U see things U never saw before. Notre Dame &
the 1/3-size Statue of Liberty always attracts the most photo
taking. ••Tons of Japanese tourists in Europe this year,
again. American tourists have returned to France. Maybe
Bush paved the way, via D-Day celebrations & EU meetings.
☺. ••Saw a few films. Saw Fahrenheit 9/11. Audience applauded, but that’s the case everywhere, I hear. U already
knew it was biased, but scintillating anyway. Panning is always popular. •Saw Lady-killers with Tom Hanks. Was also a
viewer killer. It was so bad, we left halfway through. Can’t
...“The right most valued by all civilized men is the right to be left alone.” US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis...
5
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
imagine why TH took the role. Don’t bother to see.
HSL
Visited Planet Hollywood (on the Champs Elysee) underground caverns, a bit like a boozy Carlsbad Caverns, NM.
••Finally visited the Pompidou Centre, vast multi-level, art
gallery, museum, galleries, library, trendy Costes café on top.
Worth doing; allow time. ••Stopped to refresh parched
tongue at famed Harry’s
Harry’s Bar, est. 1911. There are HB’s now
in Munich, NY, LA, Rome, London, Venice, HK, Sgpr,
SanDiego, Denver, Bonn, & Montreux (which has a celebration Nov 2--US election nite). What McDonalds did for fast
food, Harry did for bars (no relation ☺). ••Along with all the
above, I still average 8 hrs a day at deskwork while traveling.
I get 50 charts faxed to me daily of all principal mkts/stks
plus hourly price lists. So trekking is never just trekking. I
wouldn’t have it any other way.
Here are US&UK headlines
& quotes that say a lot
Wars
&
Pieces
about where we are & why. ••7/17 NYT: “For the first time,
a US majority, 51%, said US should have stayed out of Iraq.
62% said the war was not worth the loss of US lives & other
costs.” ••Boston Globe columnist HDS Greenway: “The US
cannot & never could, go it alone & have any chance of prevailing against terrorism. It’s a pity Bush admin. could not
have come to that conclusion earlier, before so much damage was done.” ••IHT pg 1 headline: “US losing high ground
on moral leadership. US seen hurt by Iraq war, detentions, &
‘incredible harm’ of prison abuse.” ••NYT columnist Nicholas Kristof: “Arab world must break out of its self-pitying
eddy. Bush admin must escape its echo chamber [where it
hears only its own voices] & understand the Arabs. Bush
might even pledge he won’t invade a country before learning
how to pronounce its name.”
••NATO’s chief warns “Afghan & Iraq are doomed to be
failed states if the US & int’l community don’t find a way to
work together to save them.” He criticized the US for deserting
Afghan, having troops there only to hunt bin Laden, not help
NATO bring stability to the country. ••P.J.O’Rourke, in his
book Peace Kills, says: “US is not a wily, sneaky nation. We
don’t think that way. On the contrary, US govt policies reflect a
resistance to thinking much at all.” FT headline: Karzai says
he is not cutting deals with Afghan warlords. (Which means he
is) ••NYT headline: War coffins still off limits. Bush Republicans vote 54-39 against allowing photos of flag-draped soldier coffins. (3-monkeys? See, speak, hear no evil) •Press
also reports nothing of the 24,000 US soldiers evacuated
wounded. Is this virtual reality? Or reality censorship?
New book Imperial Hubris–Why the West is Losing the
War on Terror by Anonymous. Says “US forces & policies are
completing the radicalization of the Islamic world, which
Osama bin Laden has been trying to do with substantial but
incomplete success since early 1990’s. As a result, I think it
fair to conclude the USA remains bin Laden’s only indispensable ally.” ••FT headline: Al-Qaeda link with Iraq on 9/11 attacks ruled out. ••LATimes & FT headline: Bush’s team is
dysfunctional, not duplicitous. (your choice) So says Max Boot,
senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. ••Same
message on cover of The Economist mag, picturing Bush &
Blair. Heading: Sincere deceivers. ••“I don’t need to explain
what I say.” G.W.Bush.
Headline: US Supreme court orders a step back from lawlessness. “Torture clearly has enjoyed acquiescence or endorsement by high officials in Bush’s govt.”- columnist William Pfaff, Tribune Media Svc. ••Ex US Sec of State George
Shultz says: “If we put this in terms of World War II, we are
6
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
now sometime around 1937.” (WSJ 3/29/04) IOW, the middle East wars have just begun.
begun ••Army Chief of Staff General Peter Schoomaker told Congress the war will “never go
away in our lifetime.” (USA Today 6/15/04). Someone let the
war genie out of the bottle. This points to large scale inflation
ahead, US$ weakness, hard asset strength, high interest, tax
rises, & much higher oil. Richard Maybury forecasts $150 oil
by end of decade. Don’t rule it out. Not to mention gas, coal,
pipelines, oil services. US$50 this year.
3 HSL Services
HSL is available (12 pgs) by airmail, e-mail or fax. Airmail OR email: US$327/yr—ie, $0.89/day. If you want both e-mail plus green
pages airmail copy: $402. HSL via fax, to your desk automatically
on deadline Sunday: $437/yr (*$417/yr). If you wish HSL by fax
plus green pages airmail copy: $512 (*$492). Lifetimers can get
HSL by fax for +$110/year (*+$90/year) or +$185 (*+$165) for both
airmail & fax delivery; or e-mail plus airmail for +$75/year. ••HSL
offers market updates via Internet between HSL’s: A Free Mkt Update (see “Read Our Updates Between HSL’s”, pg 4) & a Full Mkt
Update (with stock picks), at only $125/yr. ••HSL now offers a
weekly ‘Gold Charts R Us’ service (GCRU), by Net, fax & mail. Via
Internet at rate of: 3-mos $300, 6-mos $585, 9-mos $855 & 12-mos
$1,110. By fax add $120 per 3-months. By mail only $250 per 3mos. U can subscribe on-line at www.hsletter.com (click on ‘Gold
charts R Us’), or subscribe via fax or mail (see page 3 masthead
for contact details). Note: Special GCRU ‘2-Week Taster’ offer
avail-able at $45 via: www.hsletter.com/GCRUpromo_Special.html
•New Subscribers only (limited time offer). ••(“Newsletters don’t
cost—they pay”). *Reduced fax rate for No.American readers only.
Nothing new under the sun.
Light
Therapy
But much is unexploited or
blocked from public view. Here is what seems to me a health
alert that’s worthy of your interest. It’s from our frequent
health info contributor, Dan Reed. He offers a free copy of an
enlightening report on “Colored Light Therapy: Your Link to
Life. How to get well & stay well.”
According to Dan, here's the Big Health Picture:
“A healing miracle that was almost lost to humanity: Since
ancient times, it has been known that specific colors have
amazing healing effects. Hippocrates used colored gemstones to heal disease. The pyramids revealed a highly advanced color healing system among the ancient Egyptians.
Every culture in history, except for our present day medical
system of drugs & surgery, has practiced color healing.
“Now, so can U. In your own home--while U sleep. During
the 1920's-30's, Colored Light Therapy (CLT)--which is but the
shining of selected colors of light upon the body (Electro Magnetic Frequency—which is the basis of colour healing) was
used to treat every disease from colds to the most serious
afflictions. Patients that were abandoned by orthodox medicine often recovered under CLT. Dr. Kate Baldwin, a prominent practitioner of CLT, proclaimed it as ‘the most simple &
effective therapeutic measure ever to be developed.’ Did CLT
become a serious threat to the medical profession? Both antiquity & modern science have supported color therapy as a
literal healing panacea.
“But the healing benefits of CLT are not lost. My report
tells how U can treat yourself even while U sleep. If U hurt, U
need CLT. It has no side effects, & colored light doesn't cost
anything. In the 1930's heyday of CLT, many doctors remedied the majority of ailments that otherwise plague and take
our lives. My Report tells how easily you can duplicate their
methods and obtain the same result. It truly is ‘Your Link to
Life.’ I suggest U Fax or email me for my report. It's free but
“The spirit of resistance to govt is so valuable on occasions that I wish it to be always kept alive.” Tom Jefferson
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
its value is inestimable. Now, U can know the secrets of how
to heal yourself when perhaps others can’t.
Fax: (916) 485-7014; email: www.remedy@gvn.net ”
PS from Uncle Harry: In my large health library I found
many references to light & color therapy. Eg, in BodyTime by
Gay Gaer Luce (Pitman Press, UK) it says: “Dr Richard Wurtman predicted light would some day be considered as potent
as any drug,” I’m sold & am using coloured light now.
Sometimes one is frustrated by the
Currencies
fickle finger of fate. We go to press
when the currency world is on a knife edge, after the dra-
matic US$ fall on Fri, 8/7. In 1-2 days we’ll know if that was a
1-day spike (as I tend to believe) or the end of the $ rally. If U
look at the US$ chart U can discern a large reverse H&S pattern, with the right shoulder achieving its precise target
(assuming it’s a valid
pattern) at 88.50,
level with its left
shoulder. If the pattern is valid the $ will
rally over the next few
days & test its neckline at 90.50, If it
breaks up through
that, the rally will extend to 92-93, where
I will expect it to terminate & we resume the $ bear mkt. This road map is clear.
But it will destruct if 88.50 doesn’t hold. That would mean no
$ rally for some time (A 120 min chart is the best place to
view this pattern, which U see on this page).
••Currencies are going to be differently affected by the
oil rise. Eg, the £, NorKr, Mex peso & ruble are benefiting. If
oil continues up, the disparities between currencies will become more pronounced. Factor that into your portfolio. I like
the £ chart. The Swiss have no oil wells in the Alps, so SFr
suffers, but $50 oil will ring safe-haven crisis bells for CH,
says RBC Capital. The US$ is hurt by high oil. The yen may
falter despite oil stockpiles if oil stays up. ••Rising yield will
help the US$, but it must rise a lot to make much difference.
NZ$ yields 6%. US: 1.5%. £: 4.75%. ••As Steve Roach keeps
reminding us: US$ is a faith-based currency. That’s true of
every currency. But the faith is only under fire for the US
these days, due to deficits, politics, war, & all the rest.
Please see our Back to the Futures section for further currency guidelines. U should always read it, whether U trade
futures or not, to give U price perspective on where we are &
may go. Especially if U can have curr. charts at hand as U
read our guides. U can get free charts via BigCharts.com.
China wants to slow its red hot
Off
the
Cuff
growth rate, a bit. But only a bit.
China scared itself with world’s reaction to its announcement
of a slowing. Foot is probably off the brake now & hoping
world believes it. US is slowing a bit. Europe is standing still.
US deficits will be addressed in 2005, by whoever wins the
election. That will slow things. Interest rate rise is another, if
modest at this stage, slowing factor. Put them all together &
a global slowdown is the outlook for 2005. India & China will,
however, still lead the growth parade, even if with smaller
numbers. Japan may be #3, looking good.
There’s been a lot in the EU press about a new EU tax
plan being virtually agreed. It’s been more vision than virtual
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
for 3years. The Euro Union would have U believe the several
low-tax countries, like Switz, Andorra, Luxembourg, have
joined in. I don’t want to spell out the realities of the compromise. Much is unwritten. U can find that out from your Swiss
(or etc) banker. Better spoken than written. But bottom line:
worry not re your EU bank acnts. ••••General Sir Michael
Rose, ex commanding officer of British SAS, who led UN
forces in Bosnia, says we can’t go around the world changing
regimes everyplace. We must instead devote ourselves to
changing attitudes. For a military man, that’s impressive.
And he’s right, of course. He says it is perceptions, not reality, that matters in these sort of conflicts, eg, Israel & Iraq.
Says a clear exit strategy for Iraq & resolution of the Palestinian conflict is essential, quickly. If not, expect more
9/11’s. We must listen up.
A letter to the editor of the Int’l Herald Tribune by Eileen
Shire probably speaks for most people outside the US. She
divides her time between the US & EU, hears views both
sides. Says “It’s troubling that 50% of Americans plus a handful of undecided voters will determine the direction of world
politics. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if every country were allowed a vote?” She is right. Since US govt imposes its laws on
most of the world (eg, banking, security, trade, travel, surveillance) & the 7 seas between, the outside world ought to have
a voice in how they are ruled. The far-distant provinces (like
Britain) of the Roman Empire had the same complaint of
Rome; they wanted a voice. Will read up to see if they got it.
US TV networks are giving only 3 hours during 4 days coverage of the political conventions this year. Admittedly there
is no contest for candidates (a pity), but even so the networks
show a lack of social conscience, in educating the public on
politics of the day. Good old Larry King gave more coverage
than any network. •••It is US House Speaker Rep. Dennis
Hastert who is proposing a sales tax to replace the income
tax (see Uncle’s Notes). He rightly says it could double GDP &
bring back jobs to the US & make the US competitive. 3
cheers for Dennis! See his new book: Speaker: Lessons from
40 yrs in coaching & politics. Ending the income tax would
bring a lot of lost individual freedom back to the US.
Happy that Chirac will let the public vote on the EU Constitution. And shame on Schroeder for refusing to hold a referendum. Public can’t be trusted? I thought Germany grew out
of that? ••The more I travel & read/see, the clearer it becomes that what matters most is mental upgrading of the
planet. People call it education, but that word has lost its bite
& doesn’t imply direction or quality. It’s more than just knowledge input. Every negative we see in the world is born of insuf
sufficient understanding. Maybe a catch phrase that would
sell the idea is: ETW: Empowerment Through Wisdom. We are
in a war on ignorance/prejudice. Not terrorism per se. We’ve
been attacking the results instead of the roots.
THE NEWS: "Of course, it is possible for any citizen with
time to spare, & a canny eye, to work out what is actually going
on, but for the many there is not time, & the network news is
the only [most available] news even though it may not be news
at all but only a series of flashing fictions..." Gore Vidal
US MARKETS (& its spin-off effects)
In most presidential years, stocks rise, especially in the 2nd
half. The 2nd half of ‘04 is not starting off brilliantly for stocks
(or for the US economy). I’ve never been a fan of such data.
Because U bowled 190 yesterday there is little chance to ex-
... “We have not abolished slavery; we have nationalized it.” Herbert Spencer ...
7
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
pect 190 today. Same with your golf score or tennis game.
This US election is like no other. And this war isn’t like the others. On top of that is the rise in energy prices—gas, oil, coal,
energy services, transportation. These things are acutely affecting the stock mkt. Mostly negatively. The airline industry is
a catastrophe. At least 5 airlines won’t be here this time next
year, maybe many more. ••I draw my conclusions mainly on
technical analysis, giving priority over fundamentals. But these
fundi’s are too important not to factor in, on top. ••Most
world stk mkts (not all) are looking toppy. Some seem to have
already peaked. It’s not decisive yet, but by the time it gets
decisive it may be too late to rearrange your deck chairs.
For the first time since April 2003, the US stock-to-bond
total return ratio has broken under its 40-wk moving average.
Also the bond-to-gold total return ratio is breaking above its
40-wk moving average. Both these financial mkt indictors are
flashing growth worries. Also, the Conference Board’s leading
economic indicator fell in June for the first time since Mar
2003. ••The lower-price stock index, which I’ve monitored
off&on for 45yrs, has broken down from a H&S top--a sign
the speculative element has left the mkt. •••I don’t care
philosophically which stock groups I buy; I just want to follow
strength. There aren’t many choices. They include: health
care stks (selectively), energy stks, & gold (but timed &
traded). Also in those commodities where supply is inelastic.
A couple of defence stks may be in order & UPS for their
China biz. Steel (alloys/producers, esp in EU) strong. Add a
China & an India fund.
The trouble with most tech stocks is: most don’t know for
sure what they will be producing in 2-3yrs. If U mine coal or
gold or pump oil & gas, then that’s what U’ll still be selling in
10yrs. But in tech, products often become obsolete in a year
&/or they switch to a hotter innovative item. U don’t know
what U are buying. Even big tech co’s switch direction. The
competition for innovation is intense. Lots of brain power! But
not much consistency. And near nil certainty of new products.
U’ve seen the mighty fall before in tech.
Don’t forget this is still a secular bear mkt. That’s the Big
Picture within which we have counter trends. A big minus is
rising interest rates. The main plus factor is lots of cash sitting on sidelines. But it doesn’t know where to put itself or
when, & fear is winning over greed just now. U don’t hear
people talking about their killings in the mkt. They aren’t
even playing. •In this climate, avoid most financial stks &
interest sensitive stks, airlines, stk brokers, long-term bonds,
semi conductors, ••It’s a sign of the times that Investors
Intelligence & Mkt Vane, etc, show the public is still wildly
bullish, even though they aren’t buying. I think they are voting their wish/hope, not their pocket book, so such surveys
are losing their significance. Low VIX mkt volatility & net
fund redemptions in Wall St prove my point. Follow the
money? It has cobwebs. Brokers tell me their clients are frozen in the headlights. ••In conclusion: the DJ World Index
fell 260 pts from yr 2000 to 2002, rallied 75pts in 03-04.
That’s about par for a bear picnic recovery. It seems to be
saying: enough already. •But U have to put your money
somewhere! So pick the plus areas I mention above, exit the
vulnerable areas above, & diversify cash, along with stocks.
He who plans, wins. Bonne chance!
••Market
MarketMarket-Track:
Track DJIA: at 9815.33, is 418.24 pts below
its key 200-day moving average (MA) at (10233.57).
S&P500: at 1063.97 is 44.14 pts below its 200-day MA
(1108.11). Nasdaq Comp: at 1315.30 is 130.75 pts below its
200-day MA (1446.05). Thus, DJIA, S&P500 & Nasdaq Comp
are bearish basis the 200-day MA.
8
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
WORLD MARKETS ANALYSIS
Note 1: Apply our trailing stop strategy to lock in shorterm profits on all positions. Exit at mkt if trends turn sharply against you. Don’t wait for stop levels
to be hit. 1, 2-day close entry levels should be changed to mkt orders if intraday run-away action develops. Note 2: Where short selling (S/S) is not
possible, use our guidelines to aid U in determining price levels for simply
selling, & our S/S stops as buying levels. TPS= Trailing Profit Stop.
Canada:
Canada Mini H&S top. Sell short bit at mkt (if down on
day) &/or sell a bounce that fails below 8500; stop: 1-dc
over 8500. Sell again (more aggressively) below 8050 for
7700 profit target. Buy small size on 2-dc over 8600: stop 1dc below 8280. Buy again on rise above 8900. Take ½ profits at 9200.
SoAmerica:
Brazil Pullback to resistance. Sell short a
SoAmerica •Brazil:
rally failure below 23,000; stop 2-dc over 23,000. Take
½ profits at 18,000. Buy 3-dc over 24,000; stop: 1-dc below
22,500. Take ½ profits at 26,950.
Belgium:
Europe:
Belgium Ascending triangle. Buy 2-dc over
Europe •Belgium
2525; stop: 1-dc below 2400. Take ½ profits at 2650.
Sell or sell short 1-dc below 2400; stop 1-dc over 2525. Sell
again on 1-dc below 2300 for 2100 profit target. •France:
France
3518-3811 T/R. Per HSL641, traders sold short at 3593. If
out, sell short a bounce that fails below 3650; stop 2-dc over
3650. And/or sell short 1-dc below 3495; stop: 2-dc over
3600. Take partial profits at 3300. Next major buy cue: 2-dc
over 3811; stop: 1-dc below 3712. Take ½ profits at 4050.
Scalpers buy mini size on 2-dc over 3650 for run towards
3811 (& maybe higher); stop: 1-dc below 3575. Use TPS to
follow strength. •Germany:
Germany 3278-4151 T/R. Long traders
whipsawed for mini loss . Traders short from 3894 exited
½ of position on 4040 stoploss . Exit 2nd ½ on 1-dc over
3910. If out, sell short 1-dc below 3700; stop: 2-dc over
3850. And/or sell short a bounce that fails below 3910; stop:
2-dc over 3910. Take ½ profits at 3475, ½ at 3315. Nimble
traders buy bit on 1-dc over 3910 for shorterm run towards
4151 resistance. Keep stops tight. Others buy 2-dc over
4150; stop: 1-dc below 4000. Take ½ profits at 4480. •Italy:
Italy
breakdown from diamond top/ascending triangle. Sell short
bit at mkt (if down on day) &/or sell short a bounce that fails
below 21,000; stop: 2-dc over 21,000. Sell again on break
below 19,650. Take ½ profits at 19,800 &/or 19,000. Next
noteworthy bull cue: 2-dc over 21,400; stop: 1-dc below
21,000. Take ½ profits at 22,150. •London:
London Breakdown
from diamond top. Traders are
short at 4395 (or better). If out, sell
or sell short a rally that fails below
4500; stop: 2-dc over 4500. And/
or sell short 1-dc below 4270; stop:
2-dc over 4380. Take ½ profits
4300 &/or 4110. Gamblers buy
mini size on 2-dc over 4525; stop:
2-dc below 4450. Buy again on rise above 4580. Take ½
profits at 4740. •Netherlands:
Netherlands Multiple H&S top. Traders are
short at 345. If out, sell short bit at mkt (if down on day) &/or
sell a bounce that fails below 340; stop: 2-dc over 340. Take
½ profits at 280. Gamblers buy foothold longs on 2-dc over
350; stop: 1-dc below 335. Buy again on rise above 365 for
run towards 400. •Switzerland:
Switzerland Breakdown from symmetrical triangle. Traders are short at 5641 (or better). If out, sell
short mini size at mkt (if down on day) &/or sell short a rally
that fails below 5700; stop 2-dc over 5700. Take ½ profits at
5430 &/or 5200. Next major buy cue: 2-dc over 5900 for run
towards 6200; stop 1-dc below 5700.
SoAfrica:
SoAfrica Pullback to resistance. Traders are short
betwn 10,535 & 10,400. If out, sell short weakness
... “It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.” Voltaire ...
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
below 10,500; stop: 2-dc over 10,500. Sell again on 1-dc below 9500. Take ½ profits at 9000. Gamblers buy bit on 2-dc
over 10,600; stop: 1-dc below 10,100. Buy again on rise
above 11,200. Take ½ profits at 11,400.
Asia/Pac Rim:
Rim: •Australia:
Australia Traders long at 3465 took ½
profits at 3540 ☺. Take remaining profits at mkt ☺. If
out, buy mini size on strength after dip that holds on/above
3450; stop: 2-dc below 3450. Use TPS to follow upside. Gamblers sell short 2-dc below 3450; stop: 1-dc over 3515. Sell
again below 3335. Take ½ profits at 3360 &/or 3250. •Hong
Kong:
Kong Tentative rise above 11,846-12,423 trading range. Buy
bit on 2-dc over 12,550; stop: 1-dc below 12,035. Buy again
over 13,150 for run towards 13,885 profit/sell target. Gamblers short at 11,997 exit on 2-dc over 12,550. Sell short 1-dc
below 11,846; stop: 2-dc over 12,225. Take ½ profits at
11,000. •Japan:
Japan symmetrical triangle breakdown? Longs & shorts
whipsawed in volatile trading .
Sell short 1-dc below 10,920; stop:
1-dc over 11,440. Sell again below
10,400 for 9710 profit target. Gamblers buy mini size on 1-dc over
11,440; stop: 1-dc below 10,075.
Buy again on rise above 11,950. Take ½ profits at 12,495.
•New
New Zealand (NZSX 50): Long traders take full profits at mkt
☺. Re-buy strength after dip that holds on/above 2700; stop:
1-dc below 2660. Take ½ profits at 2850. Sell short bit on 1dc below 2660; stop: 2-dc over 2720. Sell again below 2550.
Take ½ profits at 2560, ½ at 2425. •Singapore:
Singapore New high.
Short traders exited via 1880 stoploss . Buy bit on strength
after dip that holds on/above 1860; stop 1-dc below 1805.
Take ½ profits at 1975. Sell short on 2-dc below 1775; stop:
1-dc over 1840. Sell again below 1680 for 1560 profit target.
OPEN POSITIONS
S/S = shortsale. M/stop = mental stop. Take P/P = take partial profits at mkt.
S/C/O = stop close only. Non-US stops are 1-day close above/below indicated stop
levels. Price paid is listed after company name, last closing price in brackets.
••AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA:
AUSTRALIA Northern Gold @ 0.24 (0.30); stop: 0.24
S/C/O. ••CANADA
CANADA:
CANADA Candian Nat’l Res. @ 27.00 (49.95);
stop: 35.95; Canico Res. @ 12.15 (12.40); sell at the open;
Imperial Oil @ 57.90 (62.60) take P/P; stop: 58.95; Hudsons
Bay @ 14.10 (14.00); stop: 13.15; Ketch Resources @ 11.60
(12.34) take P/P at 13.00; stop: 10.45; Kirkland Lake Gold @
4.20 (3.72); stop: 3.44 S/C/O; Leeward Bull&Bear Fund @
1000 (1555); B/B fund investors take ½ profits on rally to
1750; Tan Range @ 0.91 & 1.90 (1.14); stop: your option;
True Energy @ 1.88 (1.90); stop: 1.69; Vaquero Energy @ 3.20
(3.73) take P/P; stop: 3.02 S/C/O. ••FRANCE
FRANCE:
FRANCE Generale de
Sante @ 11.87 (12.00) take P/P at 13.30; stop: 11.10;
Groupe Bourbon @ 87.00 (101.30) take P/P; stop: 90.00;
Neopost @ 47.00 (47.74) take P/P at 51.80; stop: 45.00;
Orpea @ 19.50 (20.50); sell at the open; Technip @ 113.20
(115.60); stop: 105; Total @ 143.60 (156.90); stop: 153.
••GERMANY
GERMANY:
GERMANY Celesio Ag @ 48.25 (50.90) take P/P at 53.00;
stop: 49.00; OMV Ag @ 156 (177.60) take P/P; stop: 156;
Reckitt & Benkiser @ 23.50 (22.35); stop: 22.00; Schoeller
Bleckman @ 12.50 (14.75); stop: 13.30. ••NETHERLANDS
NETHERLANDS:
NETHERLANDS
Cate Ten @ 44.20 (44.00) take P/P at 48.60; stop: 42.00.
••SWITZERLAND
SWITZERLAND:
SWITZERLAND Ascom @ 12.00 (13.75); stop: 13.00; BP
@ 11.15 (11.60) take P/P at 12.45; stop: 10.70; Concophillips @ 96.00 (94.10) take P/P at 107; stop: 93.00; Flughafen
Zuerich @ 105 (94.10) sell at the open. ••UK
UK:
UK Bisichi Mng @
106 (125) take P/P; stop: 106; Dragon Oil @ 42.00 (40.50)
take P/P at 47.00; stop: 37.80; Palladin Resources @ 128
(128.75) take P/P at 143; stop: 115; Petrel Resources @
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
39.60 (42.00) take P/P at 45.00; stop: 34.55. ••USA
USA:
USA
Amerigroup @ 47.00 (44.76) sell at the open; Armor Hldgs @
28.90 (34.60) sell at the open; Delta Petro. @ 11.80 (11.65);
sell at the open; Enpro Inds @ 20.82 (19.20); stop: 18.75;
Exxon Mobil @ 43.55 (45.20) take P/P at 48.75; stop: 41.60;
Federal Natl Mtg (S/S) @ 67.75 (70.20) take P/P at 61.00;
stop: 79.00; Flamel Tech (S/S) @ 19.40 (16.86) take P/P at
17.00; stop: 21.72; iShares GS Tech (S/S) @ 42.80 (39.34)
take P/P at 37.60; stop: 47.10; Massey Energy @ 27.20
(25.24); stop: 24.20; Nicor Inc (S/S) @ 33.38 (32.68) take
P/P at 29.00; stop: 36.60; Northern Sts Fin’l (S/S) @ 27.86
(27.22) take P/P at 24.50; stop: 30.70; Oracle (S/S) @ 10.75
(10.19) take P/P at 9.40; stop: 12.04; Semiconductors
HOLDERS (S/S) @ 36.40 (30.65) take P/P; stop: 39.40; Silver
Standard Res. @ 10.70 (12.97); stop: 9.75 S/C/O; Spdr Tr
Energy Sector @ 30.60 (30.93) take P/P at 34.00; stop:
28.55; Spx Corp (S/S) @ 43.55 (36.65) take P/P; stop: 47.55
S/C/O; Total @ 98.17 (95.45); stop: 89.00; Western Gas @
28.50 (28.58) sell at the open.
••MUTUAL
MUTUAL FUNDS
FUNDS:: ••USA
USA:
USA Prudent Bear Fd @ 6.17
(5.91); mental stop: 5.50; Rydex Ursa Fd @ 9.44 (9.65) take
P/P at 10.38; mental stop: 8.50; UltraBear Profund Fd @
23.89 (24.77) take P/P at 26.30; mental stop: 21.50.
HSL INVESTMENT BOX
Managing your assets is a job you can’t totally delegate. Know-how is your
best protection; learn to do-it-yourself. (Abbrev: ST, MT, LT: short-, medium- & long-term). Changes are underlined.
COUNTRY/REGION WEIGHTING: US: 20%; Europe: 25%; Cda: 5%; UK:
15%; Oz/NZ: 15%; Asia: 18%; Latin Amer: 2%.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------•5% T-BONDS/NOTES/BILLS: 1-year maturities recommended in NZ, Oz
or UK treasuries (govt or govt-backed only).
•10% STOCKS (non-gold’s). Put half in energy stks. Raise stocks to 1015% if S&P500 makes sustained break above 1160.
•5-7% COMMODITIES: via futures & commodity stocks. Conservative
investors can buy (Jim) ‘Rogers Int’l Raw Materials Fund, LP’. Contact
George Rohrs: Tel (US) 312-264-4360. Offshore (clone) fund available for
non-U.S investors (min invest. $100K) via Dundee Leeds Management
Services Ltd. E-mail: cayotte@dundeeleeds.bm Or Fax: (441) 292 2239.
•10-15% TREASURY BILLS: 90-day or equivalent in first world nations.
Maximum 25% in US$ T-Bills, 50% in GBP/NZ$/Oz$/CAD$/Euro/Swiss
Franc or equivalent T-Bills, 25% in own/other country (if first world).
•20-25% GOLD STOCKS & BULLION: To increase profits in gold shares,
we recommend trading them with stops, not just holding. Our weekly ‘Gold
Charts R Us’ service (GCRU) is available via Net, fax or mail. GCRU offers
gold mine charts with specific buy&sell & stops levels for each pick. Via Internet at rate of: 3-mos $300, 6-mos $585, 9-mos $855 & 12-mos $1,110. U
can sign up online at: www.hsletter.com (click on ‘Gold Charts R Us’), or
subscribe via fax or mail (see page 3 masthead for contact details). Note:
Special GCRU ‘2-Week Taster’ offer available at $45 via: http://www.hsletter.
com/GCRUpromo_Special.html •New Subscribers only (limited time offer).
•20-35% CURRENCIES: Time Deposits &/or actual cash &/or futures.
Recommended longterm currency weightings for your portfolio’s: US$:
15%; AUD$/NZ$/CAD$/Sterling/ SwKr/Dkr/NorKr: 65%; Euro: 20%.
Note: raise US$ exposure to 20-25% if Sept dollar index holds 2-dc over 93.00.
•5-10% BEAR STOCK FUNDS: Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): buy bit on
2-dc over 6.00; again over 6.25. Rydex Ursa Fund (RYURX): buy big on 2dc over 9.50; again over 10.20. UltraBear Profund Fund (URPSX): buy big
on 2-dc over 24.00; again over 28.00.
Treasury bills 10-15 %
Gold Stocks
& Bullion 20-25 %
Commodities 5-7 %
Stocks 10 %
T-Bonds/Notes/Bills 5 %
Currencies 20-35 %
Bear Stock Funds 5-10 %
... “National freedom is an illusion without legally-protected individual freedom, private property & personal privacy.” --H.D. Schultz ...
9
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS
HSL
Non-US stk stops are 1-day close above/below price for all recommendations. Mkt = market. S/C/O = stop close only.
••AMSTERDAM
AMSTERDAM:
AMSTERDAM IHC Caland Nv (AEX: IHC) sell or sell
short at 38.00; stop: 40.25. Gamblers sell mini size at mkt.
Randstad Hldgs (AEX: RAND) buy strength after dip to
23.50; stop: 20.70. ••CANADA
CANADA:
CANADA Fairfax Hldgs (TSX: FFH)
sell or sell short at 210; stop: 235. Gamblers sell bit at mkt.
Gerdau Ameristeel (TSX: GNA) buy strength after dip to
5.25; stop: 4.75. Niko Res (TSX: NKO) buy at 40.50-stop;
stop: 36.45. Gamblers buy at 36.00; stop: 35.00. Trican
Well Svc (TSX: TCW) buy bit at mkt; stop: 39.25. ••FRANCE
FRANCE:
FRANCE
Bollore Inv (CAC: 003929) buy at 56.50-stop; stop: 50.85.
Gamblers buy at 52.00; stop: 50.00. Eramet (CAC: 013175)
buy strength after dip to 47.50; stop: 42.80. Gamblers buy
at mkt; stop: 47.00. Norbert Dentressan (CAC: 005287) buy
at 44.50-stop; stop: 40.05. Seche Envir. (CAC: 003910) buy
at 55.00-stop; stop: 49.00. Gamblers buy at mkt; stop:
46.00. ••GERMANY
GERMANY:
GERMANY Fortum Oyj (DAX: 916660) buy if dips
to 10.80; stop: 9.72. Group Technologies (DAX: 126201)
buy at 7.50-stop; stop: 6.75. Occidental Petroleum (DAX:
OPC) buy at 42.00-stop; stop: 38.00. Gamblers buy at
38.00; stop: 35.00. Solarworld Ag (DAX: SWV) buy strength
after dip to 27.50; stop: 26.00. Voestalpine Ag (DAX: VAS)
buy at 41.10-stop; stop: 37.00. ••SWI
••SWITZERLAND
SWITZERLAND:
TZERLAND Kuehne
& Nagel Int (SMI: 001254181) buy strength after dip to
182; stop: 170. Xstrata (SMI: XTAN) buy big at 18.50-stop;
stop: 16.50. ••UK
UK:
UK Centurion Energy (LSE: 3316867) buy at
156-stop; stop: 137.50. Monterrico Metals (LSE: 3169500)
buy at 420-stop; stop: 369. Schroders (LSE: SDR) sell or sell
short at 610; stop: 670. Gamblers sell short small size at
mkt. ••USA
USA:
USA AT&T Corp (NYSE: T) sell short at 13.60-stop;
stop: 15.23. Chevrontexaco Corp (NYSE: CVX) buy strength
after dip to 90.00; stop: 83.00. Innovative Solutions & Support (Nasdaq: ISSC) buy at 24.30-stop: stop: 21.00. Spec.
iShares Gold Sch Sftwr (AMEX: IGV) sell short at 35.50; stop:
39.05. iShares Lehm 20+ Trs (AMEX: TLT) sell short bit at
mkt; stop: 92.50. Spec. Mine Safety Appliances (NYSE:
MSA) buy strength after dip to 32.50; stop: 29.00. Omega
Fin’l Corp (Nasdaq: OMEF) sell short at 29.60-stop; stop:
33.05. Gamblers sell short mini size at mkt. Penn Virgini
Res Ptr (NYSE: PVR) buy at 38.30-stop: stop: 34.50. The German Fd (NYSE: GER) sell short at 6.25-stop; stop: 7.00.
Gamblers sell short mini size at mkt. Western Gas (NYSE:
WGR) buy mini size at mkt; buy again if dips to 26.00; stop:
23.40. Westmoreland Coal (AMEX: WLB) buy strength after
dip to 21.00; stop: 18.90. Olympic Steel (Nasdaq: ZEUS) buy
strength after dip to 19.00; stop: 17.00.
CLOSED POSITIONS
HSL recom’s are followed by a wide selection of investors, ranging from
novice traders to professional fund managers. And, many Hslm’s have requested we give partial profit taking signals (at intermediate resistance levels) to
allow incremental exit from medium to large share positions. Thus, recom’s to
take partial profits can be given up to 3 times before a position is finally exited.
••Per
Per HSL641
+102 Ballast Nedam
HSL641:
641 Maurel & Prom +102%;
+48%; Amedisys +31%;
+48%
+31% Lincoln Elec +23%;
+23% Shuffle Master
+19%;
+19% Canico +18%;
+18% Helen Of Troy +18%;
+18% Ascom +15%;
+15%
Delta Petro +15%;
+15% Total +14%;
+14% Great Canadian Gaming
+12%;
+12% Silver Standard +12%;
+12% Cadbury Sch. +10%;
+10% Cott Corp
+10%;
+10% Western Gas +10%;
+10% Orpea +9%;
+9% Schoeller Bleckman
+9%.
Per Full FMU 07/11:
+40% Silver
+9% ••Per
07/11 Ballast Nedam +40%;
Standard +27%;
+27% Delta Petro. +23%;
+23% Urban Outfitters +21%;
+21%
Ascom Holding +19%;
+19% Canico Res. +17%;
+17% Great Canadian
Gaming +17%;
+17% Western Gas +15%;
+15% Imperial Oil +10%;
+10%
10
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
Schoeller & Bleckman +7%.
Profit taking or stopped out:
+7% ••Profit
out
Swiss Steel +42%;
+42% Nuco2 +24%;
+24% Lincoln Elec +14%;
+14% Silver
Standard +12%;
+12% Amedisys +10%;
+10% Shuffle Master +10%;
+10%
Helen of Troy +9%;
+9% Cott Corp +4%;
+4% Cadbury Sch. +3%;
+3%
Twentsche Kabel –5%; Mentor Corp –9%; Arch Coal –10%;
Ati Technologies –10%; Drew Ind –10%; Engineered Support –10%; Gen-Probe –10%; Gentiva –10%; Unit Agresso –
10%; Synaptics Inc –12%; Canarc Res. –22%.
HSL MODEL PORTFOLIO
NOTE: USA stops are INTRADAY. All others are a 1-day close beyond stop price.
S/C/O: stop close only; LT: Long-term; MT: Medium-term; ST: Short-term
STOCKS
Australia
Rio Tinto
Canada
Gammon Lake
Silver Standard
France
Maurel & Prom
Netherlands
Ispat
So.Africa
Durban Roodepoort
Gold Fields
U.K
British Telecom (short)
Jkx Oil & Gas
U.S.A
Agnico Eagle (NYSE)*
Glamis (NYSE)*
Petroleum Dev Corp
Price
Paid
Aug
7/04
14.00
37.68 LT: 31.50
+169%
6.85 LT: 4.60 S/C/O
16.84 LT: 12.30 S/C/O
+167%
+361%
2.56
3.65
49.50
STOPS
110.50 LT: 80; MT: 72
Gain/
Loss
+123%
6.00
19.35 LT: 12.00 S/C/O
+222%
1.19
4.75
2.42 LT: 2.00 S/C/O
10.80 LT: 9.00 S/C/O
+103%
+127%
125.50
45.50
6.50
3.27
13.20
32.90 LT: 37.00
126.75 LT: 77.00
+74%
+179%
12.85 LT: 10.00 S/C/O
15.50 LT: 12.29 S/C/O
27.65 LT: 22.00 S/C/O. *Take P/P
+98%
+374%
+109%
FUNDS
USA
Piranha Fund
Titan Global Hedge Fd
Nauticus C (Tudor BVI)
Oceanus (Tewksbury)
May 01 - May 03 (est)
May 01 - May 03 (est)
Jan 01 - June 04 (est)
Jan 01 - June 04 (est)
+33%
+21%
+74%
+34%
The average gain for the 12 stocks only listed above is +175.50%. When dividends are
added on a reinvestment basis (base S&P 500: 1973-1995), the gain is +477.65%.
* This Canadian stk traded mainly in US.
HSLP (HSL MARKET PREDICTOR)
HSLP-NYSE’s lead sell signal/break below March support,
following several months of bearish divergence vs. the NYSE
Comp, finally reached through to the general equity mkts.
With many global indexes rolling over/forming a series of declining peaks we prefer to head for the exits now, rather than
wait for the NYSE
Comp to confirm. The
breakdown
from
HSLP-NYSE’s Jan-July
trading range offers a
measured target of
2000 (which corresponds to 5665 JunAug ’03 support on
the NYSE Comp), ie, a
retracement
54%
from the Mar 2004
peak. As HSLP-NYSE shows little support between now & its
2000 target, odds are high for a sharp rather than an ‘orderly’
decline. That’s something HSLP-NYSE’s early warning signals
will allow us to contemplate from the sidelines!
HSLP-Nasdaq curiously continues to lag weakness in the
Nasdaq Comp. Only time will tell if HSLP-Nasdaq’s bullish di-
... “Newsletters are the alternative press.” George Stoll, Founder of the Flint Schools ...
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
vergence is indicating the current decline will be relatively
short-lived. But with Nasdaq Comp breaking to 11-month lows
we cannot argue with chart weakness. If/when HSLP-Nasdaq
breaks 2310 support it will signal an unquestionable resumption of the major bear mkt. HSLP-Nasdaq can be viewed between HSL’s via online mkt updates (see Web Box. Pg 4).
BACK TO THE FUTURES
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
on/above 110^24; stop 1-dc below 109^20. Take ½ profits
at 113^16 & use TPS on rest. Sell short 1-dc below 109^20;
stop 1-dc over 110^24. Take ½ profits at 107^12. ..Gold
..Gold
(Dec Cx): Long traders exited via stoploss . Gamblers sell
short a rally failure below 405; stop: 2-dc over 405. Take
profits at 388 &/or 380. Buy mini size on 2-dc over 405;
stop: 1-dc below 395. Buy more aggressively on 2-dc over
412 for run towards 428 profit/sell target.
..Euro
..Euro (Sept Cx): Per HSL641, gamblers who bot at mkt
took profits via TPS ☺. Traders who bot the false reverse
H&S breakout exited via stoploss . Sell short a rally failure
below 1.2400; stop: 2-dc over 1.2440. Take ½ profits at
1.2070 & use TPS on rest. And/or sell short at 1.1920-stop;
stop: 1-dc over 1.2070. Sell again on 2-dc below 1.1750 for
1.1400 profit target. Gamblers buy mini size after dip that
holds on/above 1.2070; stop: 1-dc below 1.1950. Take ½
profits at 1.2395. Buy again on 2-dc over 1.2440 for run towards 1.2720 profit/sell target. ..£
.. - GBP (Sept Cx): Per
HSL641, traders who bot after dip to 1.7870 exited via TPS
☺. Buy small size at mkt (if up on day) &/or buy strength after dip that holds on/above 1.8200; stop: 1-dc below 1.8050.
Take ½ profits at 1.8600 & use TPS on rest. Buy again on
rise above 1.8670 for run towards 1.9145. Sell short a rally
failure below 1.8670; stop 2-dc over 1.8670. Take full profits
at 1.8200. And/or sell short 1-dc below 1.7920 for 1.7485
profit target. Stop: 1-dc over 1.8110. Re-short 2-dc below
..Yen:
1.7260 for dip towards 1.6600. ..Yen
Yen (Sept Cx): Longs &
shorts exited via stoploss . Buy bit at mkt (if up on day) &/
or buy strength after dip that holds on/above .9025; stop: 1dc below .8925. Take ½ profits at .9265. Buy again on 2-dc
over .9310 for run towards .9540 profit/sell target. Sell short
a rally failure below .9265; stop: 2-dc over .9310. Take full
profits at .9025. And/or sell short 2-dc below .8900 & .8720
for dip towards .8500. ..US$
..US$ Index:
Index (Sept Cx): Traders who
sold short at mkt exited with gain via TPS ☺. Buy strength
after dip that holds on/above 88.20; stop: 87.00. Take ½
profits at 90.00 & use TPS on rest. And/or buy 2-dc over
90.50; stop: 1-dc below 89.40. Take full profits at 92.50. Sell
short a rally that fails below 90.00; stop: 1-dc over 90.50.
Take ½ profits at 88.20. And/or sell short 1-dc below 87.00;
again below 86.00; stop: 1-dc over 88.20. Use TPS to follow
downside. ..DJIA
..DJIA:
DJIA (Sept Cx): Traders short at 10,300 took ½
profits at 10,200, ½ at 10,010 ☺. Gamblers sell short mini
size at mkt (if down on day) 1 hour before close &/or sell a
bounce that fails below 10,200; stop: 2-dc over 10,200. Take
½ profits at 9500, ½ at 9300. Buy bit on 2-dc over 10,200;
stop: 1-dc below 9980. Buy again on 2-dc over 10,500 for
run towards 10,880 profit/sell target. ..Nasdaq
..Nasdaq mini (Sept
Cx): Per HSL641, traders who sold short at mkt exited via
stoploss . Traders who sold the rally failure below 1498,
took ½ profits at 1430, ½ at 1388 ☺. Gamblers sell short
small size at mkt (if down on day) near the close &/or sell a
bounce that fails below 1430; stop: 2-dc over 1430. Take ½
profits at 1285 &/or 1215. Buy toehold longs on 2-dc over
1430; stop: 1-dc below 1380. Buy again on 2-dc over 1522.
Use TPS to lock in shorterm gains. ..S&P
..S&P 500 (Sept Cx): Traders short from 1128 & 1115 took ½ profits at 1105 &/or
1085 ☺. Gamblers sell short bit at mkt (if down on day) 1
hour before close &/or sell a bounce that fails below 1105;
stop: 2-dc over 1105. Take ½ profits at 1045 &/or 1010.
Buy small size on 2-dc over 1112; stop: 1-dc below 1090.
Buy again on 2-dc over 1145 for run towards 1190. ..T
..T-Notes
(Sept Cx): Per HSL641, long traders took ½ profits at 110^21
& exited 2nd ½ via TPS ☺. Buy strength after dip that holds
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04
Created with TradeStation by Omega Research © 2000
•Written: August 7, 2004. Comments below concern trades from prior HSL’s
only (not FMU’s). TPS = Trailing Profit Stop.
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ACTIONS TO TAKE - IN A NUTSHELL
••Global equity mkts are turning bearish via dips below
their 200-day moving averages & key support. To offset
draw down risks in uncertain mkts, re-balance equity
weightings between longs&shorts (&/or increase exposure to bear stk funds), & maintain strict/diversified asset
allocation percentages as outlined in HSL Investment Box
(see Pg 9). ••General downdraft likely to dampen all sectors shorterm. Use temporary weakness in strongest sectors (oil, gas & energy stocks) to average down &/or buy
at bargain prices. ••Continue to hold currencies in 2 or 7day call deposits to benefit from higher interest rates
ahead. Active investors be prepared to hedge shorterm
strength in US$ via futures &/or reduce exposure to nonUS$ currencies, if 2-day close made over 93.00 in Sept
dollar index. ••Bargain-hunters/deep pockets increase
core positions of physical bullion (in coin or bar form) if
NY gold dips to 370 level.
• • • • • • • Top Picks of the Month • • • • • • •
••CANADA
CANADA:
CANADA Fairfax Hldgs (TSX: FFH) sell or sell short at
210; stop: 235. Gamblers sell bit at mkt. ••GERM
GERMANY
GERMANY:
ANY
Voestalpine Ag (DAX: VAS) buy at 41.10-stop; stop:
37.00. ••SWITZERLAND
SWITZERLAND:
SWITZERLAND Xstrata (SMI: XTAN) buy big at
18.50-stop; stop: 16.50. ••UK
UK:
UK Schroders (LSE: SDR) sell
or sell short at 610; stop: 670. Gamblers sell short small
size at mkt. ••USA
USA:
USA Omega Fin’l Corp (Nasdaq: OMEF)
sell short at 29.60-stop; stop: 33.05. Gamblers sell short
mini size at mkt. Penn Virgini Res Ptr (NYSE: PVR) buy at
38.30-stop; stop: 34.50.
“Govt is not reason; it’s not eloquence; it is force. Like fire, it’s a dangerous servant & a fearful master.” George Washington
11
HSL
BY PRIVATE SUBSCRIPTION ONLY
Many Americans are hard
pressed to decide who to
vote for. Neither Bush nor Kerry are role models. Neither inspire passion from their parties, as JFK & Reagan did. Kerry’s
main asset is: he isn’t Bush. That wins him half the vote.
Bush’s main asset is: he’s no socio-liberal. That wins him the
other half. Who will do the least damage is probably (or
should be) the deciding factor, along with who has the best
judgement. Both belong to the Skull & Bones Society. GOP
has suddenly half-promised to propose a sales tax & abolish
the income tax & IRS. That would be a big vote winner if they
look serious about it before Nov 2. Taxpayers hate the tax
system/IRS more than Saddam. But would it be just an election promise, most of which aren’t kept? Will the Democrats
say: me too? Can the citizens win one, for a change?
Whichever party wins, the losers are not going to go away.
Both are fired up & losers will fiercely oppose the winner in
Congress—which may well be split 50-50 & thus permit no
mega-changes or new wars. That would be a blessing. I’ve
said for yrs that coalition govts are safest for the people. Most
nations have many parties which make coalitions pos. Almost only the US has a mere 2-parties, should have 4, as all
of EU does. Some have 20. Concentration of power isn’t
good, since power always corrupts. Thus landslide wins are
always a worry to thinkers.
On the grapevine I hear: if US neo-cons have their way,
Iran is the next US war zone. For sure. •••Meantime 7 US
aircraft carrier strike groups are in (or enroute to) China waters. The biggest fleet concentration ever. This is 7 of 12 aircraft groups in all! China has dropped plans to build aircraft
carriers. They’re following the Soviet concept that carriers are
not survivable. Will US become a toothless superpower?
China has received new model mobile ICBM’s from Russia
which are capable of hitting all US cities. (Source; WorldAffairs Brief & The Reaper). More Chinese checkers nextime,
the economic warfare that looks so innocent on the surface.
Mars is looking a better option all the time. ☺
China oil imports soared by nearly 40% in 1st 5 mos of
’04, as it needs ever more oil to fuel its (still) explosive
growth, & its coal stockpile fell to 20-yr low. •••I’ve been
behind the curve, & a bit cynical on global warming for
years, probably because the environmentalists were so shrill
in earlier yrs. But it’s now (past) time to get serious about it.
It’s too late to avoid much damage, but if we don’t put muscle into this, we’ll suffer acutely. Some islands are slipping
under the sea (eg, Maldives), others on the verge. Air is unbreathable in parts of China/Japan, LA occasionally, MexCity, etc. Our food gets polluted. Water is undrinkable in
much of the world. The public won’t vote for change til they
are “under water.”
Many of our increasing illnesses (treated by ever stronger
drugs & surgery) are traceable to various pollution’s, by air,
water, & vegetable-ground. Cars & oil contribute. Car makers
& oil biz contribute to political parties. Political leaders (an
oxymoron?) are paralyzed, can’t make decisions to tackle
global warming. Many experts say it’s our single largest problem. Tourism makes the problem worse, & manufacturers
don’t want to stop polluting, so U can see why govts don’t
mention it. Is it an issue in US election? Forget it! China is
world’s biggest polluter & the least cooperative in stemming
it. If the democratic West & the undemocratic East won’t act
to save themselves, where are we going? It used to be a joke
about leaving this planet if it got too polluted & violent. With
new wars looming & no will to solve pollution/warming, the
joke isn’t as outrageous as it was.
Uncle’s Notes:
12
HARRY SCHULTZ LIFE STRATEGIES
Welcome back to-the-fold to a number
of Hslm’s who wandered off (but not
into the desert for 40yrs) & have returned. •••Change is inevitable, except from a vending machine. •••”She’s always
late. Her ancestors arrived on the Juneflower.” •••”If there
are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where
they went.” -Will Rogers. •••In a college writing class, students were instructed to write a short story in as few words as
possible. They were to address 3 subjects: Religion, Sexuality
& Mystery. The most concise story submitted, that met all 3
requirements, was written by a young lady who received an
A+ for her 9-word essay. She turned in the following story:
“Good God! I’m pregnant. I wonder who did it?”
Pima Indian saying: The smarter a man is, the more he
needs God to protect him from thinking he knows everything. •••Giving money & power to govt is like giving whiskey & car keys to teenage boys. --P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian. •••Congrats to hslm Scot Tips who takes over editorship of NHF's Health Freedom News. They’re fighting global
govts’ attempt to make vitamin tablets available only on prescription! •••“There is no psychiatrist in the world like a
puppy licking your face.” -Ben Williams. •••Anger: an acid
that can do more harm to the vessel in which it is stored than
to anything on which it is poured.
•••If guns cause crime, then pencils cause misspelled
words. •••“A dog is the only thing on earth that loves U
more than he loves himself.” Josh Billings. •••Thanx to
Trader Vic for being the first to send a birthday card, a mo.
early. •••The trouble with TV soundbite news is it’s not totally fiction or distortion. And the public hasn’t the tools to
search out the truths. Quality newspapers/mags & newsletters are the remedy. •••”I don’t do drugs. I get the same
effect just standing up fast.”
•••Next
Next HSL will be mailed Oct 4. Email & fax subscribers will have HSL in hand Sunday Oct 3. Next Gold Charts R
Us: Aug 11. Next FMU (Market Update) will be Sept 5.
Whew! •••Our Reader Service Dept will be closed Sept 15.
Local Hol. •••R.E. Fincher Jr says he couldn’t renew his HSL
subscription on time due to “alien
alien abduction.”
abduction Good enough
reason! Did U bring back any souvenirs? Maybe a Mars newsletter? I hear they don’t allow email on Mars, only typewriters
& faxes. I’m going! •••I refuse to join Chocoholics Anonymous. Is there a choc-patch? ••But may start a website to
stamp out unsanitary handshaking: NoShakes Anon. •••An
unusual number of U who normally renew HSL a year at a
time have opted for a 2 or 4yr sub. Some have asked for
automatic renewal. Thanx for these votes of confidence.
Best (actual) press headlines in 2003: Something went
wrong in jet crash, expert says. – Police begin campaign to run
down jaywalkers. – Panda mating fails; veterinarian takes
over. – Miners refuse to work after death. – War dims hope for
peace. – If strike isn’t settled quickly, it may last awhile. – Cold
wave linked to temperatures. – London: Couple slain; police
suspect homicide. –Red tape holds up new bridges. – Man
struck by lightning faces battery charges. – Astronaut takes
blame for gas in spacecraft. – Typhoon rips through cemetery;
hundreds dead. – Kids make nutritious snacks. –Local high
school dropouts cut in half. •••••• The HSL Olympics team
is in Athens, ready for these events: High Dive Forecasts, NeckSticking-Out Dash, Walking on Water
Sprint, Weight of World Lifting Off Shoulders, Shot-put & calls. •••••And now,
HSL begins its 41st year! •Anniversary
au revoir from your ever-present Uncle
Harry D (for Date stamped) Schultz
Potpourri
...“A newsletter that makes or saves you money doesn’t cost you anything.” Dr. Vernon Coleman...
HSL 642 - 08 AUG 04