Hume City Retail Strategy
Hume City Retail Strategy
Final Report - 18 September 2009
(Version 2)
Hume City Council
This report has been prepared for:
This report has been prepared by:
SGS Economics and Planning Pty. Ltd.
ACN 007 437 729
5 th Floor, 171 Latrobe Street,
Melbourne Victoria 3000 phone: 61 3 8616 0331 fax: 61 3 8616 0332 email: sgsvic@sgsep.com.au
web: www.sgsep.com.au
Offices in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Hobart, Canberra, Perth
In association with:
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................... i
1 Introduction ........................................................................ 1
2 Definitions and Concepts ....................................................... 6
3 Land Use and Transport Context .......................................... 18
Urban Growth Boundary and Investigation Areas ............................................ 18
Existing Zoning Conditions in Hume ............................................................. 21
Hume Growth Area Plan (2005) ................................................................... 23
Neighbourhood Shopping Centres Local Policy ............................................... 26
Melbourne @ 5 Million and Melbourne 2030 ................................................... 27
Retail Policy Review: Discussion Paper .......................................................... 28
Existing and Emerging Transport Issues ....................................................... 34
4 Retail Stocktake and Proposals ............................................ 41
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Table of Contents
5 Trends in Retailing ............................................................. 50
Mini Majors and Retail Warehouses .............................................................. 54
6 Demographic Context .......................................................... 58
7 Retail Performance ............................................................. 72
8 Full Development Retail Capac ity ......................................... 90
Per Person Supportable Retail Floorspace ...................................................... 96
Regional and Sub-Regional Centres.............................................................. 99
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Table of Contents
9 Hume Retail Strategy ........................................................ 115
Hume Retail Centre Development Plan ........................................................ 119
Retail Development Decision Criteria ........................................................... 123
General Guidance for Retail Capacity and Impact Assessment ......................... 124
Appendices ............................................................................. 126
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Executive Summary
Purpose
This report presents the Hume City Retail Strategy. The brief for the project articulates the purpose of the report as follows.
The Hume Retail Strategy will inform policy directions for the planning and management of retail activities within the City. It is expected that the Hume Retail Strategy will assist in guiding growth, development and investment in the City’s retail and commercial sector.
The Retail Strategy is expected to promote and enhance retail and commercial development within Hume City to meet both current community needs and those of new communities not yet established. The Strategy is expected to analyse and draw conclusions and make recommendations on the existing and future retail hierarchy, retail supply, new retail and activity centres, performance and turnover of existing centres, escape expenditure, demand for retail space and appropriate locations for different retail formats.
The Hume Retail Strategy is also required to analyse the retail sector and identify what areas are currently over supplied as well as those sectors which are deficient within Hume’s retail sector and business types. The Retail Strategy should also provide detail on the land requirements and suitable locations for those particular sectors which are currently under supplied.
Findings
The major findings of this report are presented in „summary and conclusions‟ of the following report sections:
Section 2 – Definitions and Concepts;
Section 3 - Land Use and Transport Context;
Section 4 - Retail Stocktake and Proposals;
Section 5 - Trends in Retailing;
Section 6 - Demographic Context;
Section 7 - Retail Performance; and
Section 8 – Full Development Retail Capacity.
Refer to the report sections for details.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Priority Challenges
From the range of issues identified in this report, it is concluded that the priority challenge for
Hume City Council will be to:
1.
Deliver a vibrant network of „food for home‟ supermarket-based convenience centres within the expanding growth areas. In addition to being the primary commodity group for household retail spending, supermarkets perform an anchor function for neighbourhood centres and are therefore a vital element in the retail and activity centre system.
Further challenges are as follows.
2.
Establish an appropriate high-order hierarchy of regional, sub-regional and bulky goods centres to meet the needs of existing and growing communities.
3.
Further develop and improve the existing network of retail / activity centres in terms of service offer, functionality and accessibility.
4.
Establish high quality public transport, walking and cycling access to new centres and existing centres (in addition to car access). Currently, there are few public transport plans for the proposed new growth areas.
Hume City Retail Vision
The recommended vision for Hume‟s retail system is as follows.
Hume will be recognised as having a diverse and dense network or retail / activity centres, characterised by a large number of supermarket anchored mixed use centres that serve community needs.
Hume will have a healthy and vibrant mix of sub-regional and regional centres that offer a wide range of retail goods and services.
Hume will distribute bulky goods activity within a hierarchy, with retailers located in centres and in a selected number of specialised regional bulky goods nodes.
All of Hume’s centres will be distinguished by having high quality urban design and pedestrian and cycling facilities, connected to public transport services.
Hume will offer diverse business spaces, catering for the needs of small independent businesses through to major retail chains.
Hume’s overall retail performance will be no less than 90% net capture, striving for a positive capture rate in relation to local retail spending.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Retail Policy Directions
The recommended retail policy directions are as follows.
Retail / Activity Centres and Land Use Mix
1.
Develop as a priority a dense network of convenience based retail / activity centres in the municipality‟s growth areas. This network should, where possible, reduce the need for shoppers to travel long distances from home to access food in particular. The establishment of a vibrant, diverse and food based retail sector is critical to the future development of Hume. This refers to community based convenience centres, anchored by at least one supermarket and supporting other retailers and service providers.
2.
Seek to integrate housing in all residential based retail / activity centres where possible, including supermarket based neighbourhood centres.
3.
Locate retail / activity centres on sites that have existing or potential future access to public transport services in addition to quality road access for private vehicles. Radial transport and movement networks into centres should be provided wherever possible.
4.
Provide dedicated walking and cycling facilities into centres and into their catchment areas.
This will facilitate development of more accessible community hubs that focus on people, walking, cycling, connection to place and quality of life.
Retail Hierarchy and Major Centres
5.
Support the existing retail hierarchy, with the major existing centres being Broadmeadows,
Roxburgh Park, the future Craigieburn Town Centre and Sunbury Town Centre.
6.
Provide new regional and sub-regional centres to support new growth areas where there is sufficient catchment to support new centres.
7.
Utilise retail activity and especially retail anchors as the basic „building block‟ and economic driver of activity centres in growth area settings, unless there is another superior local land use or economic driver that can be harnessed to perform the activity centre driver role.
Supermarket Centres
8.
Supermarket-based neighbourhood centres should be distributed across the municipality to perform the role of primary food convenience centres for communities.
9.
A preference should be made towards provision of a larger number of single supermarket based centres, which would have an average size of around 5,000 sqm retail. A catchment of approximately 11,000 people is required to support such a centre. A greater distribution
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Hume City Retail Strategy of smaller centres will facilitate greater pedestrian and cycling access to centres for more people.
10.
Smaller supermarket based centres should be located to meet the needs of defined communities, and as such major arterial road locations should be avoided where possible.
Frontage to an internal collector or distributor road is desirable.
11.
Where the above is not possible, an alternative model is based on fewer, bigger supermarket centres (comprising two or more supermarkets). Larger supermarket based centres should be located on or near major arterial roads that penetrate required catchments and provide public transport services, so as to facilitate economic viability and better access.
Bulky Goods
12.
A hierarchy for bulky goods retailing should be established in the region.
13.
A number of regional-scale specialised bulky goods centres should be considered to service regional catchments, similar to the function of the Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne. These would be provided for large-scale and low density bulky goods.
14.
Smaller-scale and / or higher density bulky goods should be encouraged to locate in designated activity centres in preference to the specialised precincts, where the activity is integrated in higher density urban formats.
15.
The general dispersal of bulky goods in other locations should be prohibited unless it can be proven that there is insufficient capacity in the bulky goods hierarchy to accommodate them.
Employment Areas
16.
Convenience retailing should be provided to all employment areas so as to provide workers with access to a reasonable level of local food, personal and business services.
17.
Provision of supermarkets in employment areas should be enabled where the provision does not adversely affect residential based centres and where higher job densities and white collar workers are desired. A starting guideline of 300 sqm retail per 1,000 workers should be used in assessments.
Trade Supplies and Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services
18.
The general dispersal of trade supplies and motor vehicle retailing and services across the business and industrial landscape should continue to be supported.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Retail (Business 1 Zone) Land Supply
19.
Provide an appropriate forward land supply for retail and activity centre development to meet the needs of communities and to stimulate competition.
20.
Where possible (but not necessarily including single supermarket based centres), provide business zoned land in multiple land ownerships so as to avoid monopoly retail conditions in catchments. Monopoly holdings can encourage restrictive lease practices and anticompetitive land withholding behaviour. It is considered that approximately three separate land owners will be able to deliver competition for larger centres whilst avoiding an overlycomplicated planning and development system.
21.
Utilise structure plans and legal agreements and / or development contribution plans to coordinate planning and development where centres are developed in multiple ownerships.
Retail Management Directions
The recommended retail management directions are as follows.
1.
Manage retail development in the municipality using two broad sub-regions that operate
(to some extent) as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity: the Hume-
Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region and the Sunbury Sub-Region.
2.
Utilise a simplified retail hierarchy classification system in reporting systems as follows: regional, sub-regional, neighbourhood and local centres and regional bulky goods centres (see within this report for definitions). In addition to this, define each retail centre in activity centre terminology according to Melbourne 2030 .
3.
Utilise the Hume Retail Centre Development Plan (shown in the section 9 of this report) to guide the delivery of retail centres in the municipality. This Plan will lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding „in-principle‟ acceptable retail development proposals.
4.
Utilise the Retail Development Decision Criteria (shown in section 9 of this report) to guide retail decision making. The Decision Criteria seek to focus retail decision making on the most important urban structure and design issues.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Further Actions
Realisation of the vision will be achieved by implementation of the following actions.
Action 1: Adopt the Hume Retail Strategy – incorporating Vision, Policy Directions and
Management Directions (as noted above) - in relevant corporate policy and planning frameworks. Implement the Retail Strategy in the Planning Scheme, utilising appropriate zoning and other frameworks.
Action 2: Develop an Activity Centres Strategy using this Retail Strategy as the base. The
Activity Centres Strategy should consider broader land use mix, transport and accessibility issues. For existing centres, the Activity Centres Strategy should address issues identified in the centre profiles in Appendix 2 of this report.
Action 3: Develop an urban design framework template for the delivery of new retail and activity centres in Hume. This template should provide a forward guide to the anticipated structure and design of selected retail / activity centres so as to lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding acceptable design solutions.
Action 4: Explore options to appoint place managers to co-ordinate the delivery of projects and development within activity centres. Hume City Council could access assistance via the State‟s Creating Better Places Program to assist with place manager funding, strategic planning and delivery of capital works.
Action 5: Establish a register of major retail operators and investors and develop a communications system to promote information sharing and a shared retail and activity centre vision for Hume.
Action 6: Develop an investment attraction strategy to attract major retail operators to centres within Hume, focusing on a department store and retail warehouse operators.
Action 7: Monitor planning and transport frameworks on an annual basis and modify details of this retail strategy as required. Monitor in particular the resolution of the Urban
Growth Boundary and more detailed urban planning and transport conditions within the urban area in relation to the assumptions of this report. It is possible and likely that conditions will change in the future as more detailed planning is undertaken and land use and transport directions are resolved for the growth areas. It will be necessary to monitor and modify the base data and review and refine the retail planning recommendations of this report over time.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
1 Introduction
1.1
Background
Hume City Council has a significant and growing population base and retail sector. The municipality‟s population is estimated to be around 170,000 (as at 2009) and the City‟s retail floorspace supply is estimated to be around 264,000 sqm distributed across 15 centres (that are above local shop node size). In addition to this supply, the City has additional retail space scattered across industrial areas and at Melbourne Airport.
Victoria in Future population projections 1 suggest that Hume‟s population will increase by about
81,000 people between 2009 and 2026. Using a broad rule of thumb, this level of population growth will support around 200,000 sqm of retail floorspace across the wider retail system in that
20 year period. A significant share of this future locally generated demand could be captured in
Hume.
In addition to this growing local demand, Hume may have potential to increase its share of retail capture from its exiting community, where residents utilise retail facilities outside of the municipality due to lack of local provision. Furthermore, Hume is in the market to capture a share of demand that is generated by existing and future communities located in surrounding municipalities. This includes residents from adjacent areas and more remotely based people that travel to or through Hume for work and other purposes.
These factors mean that total future retail space to be facilitated in appropriate locations in Hume could be in excess of 200,000 sqm in a 20-year period. This roughly equates to around 10,000 sqm of new retail supply each year, on average. This is a significant retail management challenge.
Within this macro context, Hume City Council is faced with many questions and challenges. These include the following.
A need to establish an appropriate hierarchy and distribution of retail supply to meet the needs of growing communities in the growth areas. Much of the new retail demand will be focused in the growth areas of Hume.
A need to clarify directions for the „bulky goods‟ retail sector. The bulky goods sector has undergone a boom in the past decade or two and has presented numerous challenges for the planning system in Victoria due to rapid growth and large land take trends.
A need to clarify policy on retail supply in predominantly employment areas. Hume has a significant employment role and vast parts of the City are zoned for employment purposes.
Proposals to provide retail facilities in employment areas are presented to Council from time to time.
1 Victoria in Future (2008), Department of Planning and Community Development.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
The challenge for Hume City Council – in tandem with other government agencies, landowners and retail businesses - is to capture a fair share of regional retail demand and facilitate the distribution of retail supply in a way that bests meet the needs of the community, which includes residents and retail businesses.
1.2
Report Purpose
This report presents the Hume City Retail Strategy. The brief for the project articulates the purpose as follows.
The Hume Retail Strategy will inform policy directions for the planning and management of retail activities within the City. It is expected that the Hume Retail Strategy will assist in guiding growth, development and investment in the City’s retail and commercial sector.
The Retail Strategy is expected to promote and enhance retail and commercial development within Hume City to meet both current community needs and those of new communities not yet established. The Strategy is expected to analyse and draw conclusions and make recommendations on the existing and future retail hierarchy, retail supply, new retail and activity centres, performance and turnover of existing centres, escape expenditure, demand for retail space and appropriate locations for different retail formats.
The Hume Retail Strategy is also required to analyse the retail sector and identify what areas are currently over supplied as well as those sectors which are deficient within Hume’s retail sector and business types. The Retail Strategy should also provide detail on the land requirements and suitable locations for those particular sectors which are currently under supplied.
1.3
Study Area
The Study Area for this report is the Hume Local Government Area, as shown in Figure 1 overleaf.
Conclusions and recommendation are made for Hume.
However, for the purposes of assessing retail supply and demand, this report considers, where necessary, the broader northern Melbourne region, adjacent non-metropolitan fringe municipalities to the north, and sub-areas of the region as required.
This strategy takes a regional assessment approach to retail planning.
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Figure 1: Study Area and Surrounds
Hume City Retail Strategy
Note: This figure includes indicative locations of proposed retail centres by developers / landholders in addition to exiting centres and approved centres. Proposed centres have not necessarily been approved and may not be approved by the relevant Council and / or State Government.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
1.4
Report Structure
This report is structured as follows. Appendices are attached to this report.
Section 2 – Definitions and Concepts.
This section provides retail industry and land use planning definitions that are relevant to this strategy, including a discussion on retailing in relation to activity centres. Retail and activity centre hierarchies are explored.
Section 3 - Land Use and Transport Context.
This summarises existing Hume City Council and
State Government policy in relation to land use, retail and transport matters. The section sets the scene for understanding the current and likely future retail demand and supply situation in the region.
Section 4 - Retail Stocktake and Proposals.
This section summarises existing retail conditions in Hume and surrounds by identifying the existing retail hierarchy and plotting existing retail supply. The section also identifies proposed retail centres (from the perspective of landholders and developers) and proposed retail floorspace supply (from the perspective of retail businesses)
(where known). Government aspirations with respect to retail centres and supply are also identified.
Section 5 - Trends in Retailing.
This section summarises recent trends in retailing by focusing on expenditure trends and patterns, from the perspective of consumers, and existing and emerging retail delivery models, from the perspective of retailers. Other retail matters are also explored.
Section 6 - Demographic Context.
This section identifies and profiles the market for retailing in and around Hume. The existing community is profiled and projections are analysed to identify how the market is expected to change in terms of size and composition in the future. The implications for retail supply are then explored.
Section 7 - Retail Performance.
The existing performance of Hume by retail commodity group is explored in this section of the report, as is future floorspace potential (over a 2031 outlook).
This section begins by assessing existing retail demand versus supply to identify existing performance strengths and weaknesses. From this base, a „business as usual‟ scenario of future floorspace provision is provided having regard to expected population growth in the catchment.
The section concludes by identifying retail development opportunities for the short term future and out to 2031.
Section 8 – Full Development Retail Capacity.
This section of the report establishes retail development framework options for Hume by identifying the ultimate „full development‟ capacity of the region and extrapolating from it the ultimate supportable retail floorspace level from a demand side perspective. This section works back from a planned end state for the region whereas Section
7 works forward from the current situation. Retail framework options are identified and assessed in this section of the report.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Section 9 - Retail Strategy. This section presents the retail strategy for Hume. This includes the recommended retail vision and policy directions and recommended retail hierarchy. This section also provides „decision criteria‟ for managing and implementing the strategy in the Hume Planning
Scheme. This section also identifies other implementation actions and projects that are designed to give effect to this strategy.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
2 Definitions and Concepts
2.1
Retailing in Relation to Activity Centres
This report focuses on the retail sector, as a component part of activity centres. It is intended that this retail strategy be used to inform and guide the development of an activity centre strategy for
Hume.
This is a logical approach because retailing is a basic „building block‟ of activity centres and economic development more generally. Having a sound understanding of current and future retail delivery directions will enable the development of a broader based activity centre strategy.
Centres that generate a substantial number of retail visits from a „large‟ catchment are well placed to accommodate other regional scale activities such as community services and other commercial activities. This is because retailing generates a large number of trips for a variety of purposes
(from daily, weekly and more infrequent purposes). This enables other land uses to co-locate with retailing and thus generate co-location benefits. This includes the ability to undertake multipurpose trips which may, for example, combine shopping with entertainment in the one location, and also allow the sharing of common infrastructure such as public transport, open space and car parking.
It is acknowledged that in some cases an activity centre is defined by a non-retail role, such as the
Specialised Activity Centre of Melbourne Airport. However, for the purposes of establishing an activity centre network in a suburban growth area, this is rare.
This report uses retail sector terminology when referring to hierarchies and activities, as shown in
Figure 2 below. The equivalent activity centre terminology is also shown in Figure 2. Note that the retail hierarchy terminology used below is one of many possible variations on this subject.
The alignment between retail and activity centre hierarchies is not exact and overlaps are possible.
Figure 2 provides a generalised summary of the alignment, and plots Hume‟s centres within the two hierarchy concepts.
There are exceptions to the indicative alignment shown, with Broadmeadows being one such example. In retail terms, Broadmeadows is a large sub-regional centre or small regional centre – a second order retail centre; in activity centre terms, it is a Central Activities District, the highest order suburban activity centre in metropolitan policy.
Figure 3 below provides a definition of the retail centre hierarchy. Figure 4 provides a definition of the State‟s activity centre hierarchy.
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Figure 2: Retail and Activity Centre Hierarchies and a Generalised Alignment
Retail
Melbourne City Centre
Regional Centre (Department Store Based)
Sub-Regional Centre (Discount Dept. Store Based)
Neighbourhood Centre (Supermarket Based)
Local Shops
Bulky Goods
Market
Melbourne City Centre -
Regional Centre (Department
Store Based)
Broadmeadow s (Large Sub-
Regional / Small Regional)
Activity Centre (M2030 and M@5 million)
Melbourne Central Activities District
Central Activity District (CAD)
Principal Activity Centre (PAC)
Major Activity Centre (MAC)
Neighbourhood Activity Centre (NAC)
Specialised Activity Centre (SAC)
Employment Corridors
Numerous types of centres noted above
Melbourne Central Activities
District
-
Central Activity District (CAD) Broadmeadow s
Principal Activity Centre (PAC) Broadmeadow s
Major Activity Centre (MAC) Sunbury
Roxburgh Park
Gladstone Park
Future Craigieburn Tow n Centre
Sub-Regional Centre (Discount
Dept. Store Based)
Broadmeadow s (Large Sub-
Regional / Small Regional)
Sunbury
Roxburgh Park
Gladstone Park
Campbellfield
Neighbourhood Centre
(Supermarket Based)
Craigieburn
Dallas
Greenvale
Meadow Heights
Westmeadow s
Olsen Place
Tullamarine
Gap Road, Sunbury
Homestead
Local Shops
Neighbourhood Activity Centre
(NAC)
Campbellfield
Craigieburn
Dallas
Greenvale
Meadow Heights
Westmeadow s
Olsen Place
Tullamarine
Gap Road, Sunbury
Homestead
Specialised Activity Centre
(SAC)
Melbourne Airport
Bulky Goods
Upfield
Others
Hume Highw ay Cluster
Mickleham Road Gladstone Park
Cluster
Other Clusters Associated w ith
Centres, especially
Broadmeadow s, Roxburgh Park and Sunbury
Market
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Figure 3: Retail Centre Hierarchy
Retail Hierarchy Classification Characteristics
Melbourne City Centre Large and diverse retail and entertainment centre, anchored by department stores through to niche retail precincts
Most accessible location for the metropolitan region, defined by radial road, rail and tram linkages
Regional Centre
(Department Store
Anchored*)
(Can be classified further into super regional, major regional and regional according to Property Council of Australia)
*A regional centre can be anchored by multiple discount department stores instead of a full line department store
Sub-Regional Centre
(Discount Department Store
Anchored)
A major retail centre that serves a wide catchment and is anchored by one or more department stores*, discount department store(s), supermarket(s), mini major(s) and speciality stores
Often associated with bulky goods adjacent to or near the core retail centre
Provides a full range of retail needs and often associated with entertainment and leisure activities such as cinemas and restaurants
Typical Size Range: 40,000 sqm to 150,000 sqm
Typical Size: 70,000 sqm
Typical Catchment: circa 115,000 people
A major retail centre that serves a wide catchment (but smaller than a regional centre) and is anchored by one or more discount department stores, supermarket(s), mini major(s) and speciality stores
Typical Size Range: 15,000 sqm to 50,000 sqm
Neighbourhood Centre
(Supermarket Anchored)
Typical Size: 25,000 sqm
Typical Catchment: 45,000 people
A retail centre that serves a neighbourhood catchment (smaller than a subregional centre) and is anchored by one or more supermarkets and speciality stores
May be associated with mini major(s)
Typical Size Range: 2,000 sqm to 15,000 sqm
Typical Size: 10,000 sqm (large ) to 5,000 sqm (small)
Typical Catchment: 10,000 - 25,000 people
NB: Major supermarket operators generally seek a catchment of at least
10,000 people
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Local Shops
Bulky Goods
Markets
Source: SGS
Hume City Retail Strategy
A collection of mixed size but usually small shops that perform a convenience retail function
Typical Size Range: 300 -1,000 sqm
Typical Size: 800 sqm
Typical Catchment: 3,000 people
A collection of bulky goods stores, generally comprising furniture, white goods, electrical, floor and window coverings, lighting, hardware and related retail operations
Can be adjacent to core retail centres or in stand-alone precincts and strips
Typical Size Range: 10,000 sqm to 100,000 sqm
Individual shops are typically around 1,000 sqm to 3,500 sqm for major tenants and 300 sqm to 500 sqm for minor tenants according to the Bulky
Goods Retailers Association.
Typical Size and Catchment: variable
Fresh food and / or variety goods markets
Usually clustered in inner and middle Melbourne retail / activity centres but also found, to a lesser extent, in outer suburban centres and stand-alone sites
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Figure 4: Activity Centre Hierarchy
Activity Centre Classification
Melbourne Central Activities
District
Central Activity District (CAD) Regional centres in Melbourne that perform a similar role to Melbourne
Central Activities District at a regional level
Centre of commercial, retail, specialised personal, entertainment, education, government and tourism activities
Accommodate high job numbers and mixed use living and working environments
Principal Activity Centre
(PAC)
Characteristics
Melbourne‟s largest, most diverse and intense centre
Provides commercial, retail, specialised personal, education, government and tourism services
A mix of developments including business, retail, services and entertainment
Well serviced by multiple public transport routes (being on the
Principal Public Transport Network or capable of being linked to it)
A large catchment covering several suburbs, and attracting activities that meet metropolitan needs
Potential to grow and support intensive housing
Strategic Objectives
Preferred location of activities of
State or national significance
Location for activities that have significant trip generation and benefit from a central position in the
Principal Public Transport Network
To be the main retail, office and destination node in Melbourne
Preferred location for: significant
CAD-type jobs and commercial services; a strong and diverse retail sector; specialised goods and services drawing on a large regional catchment
Provide opportunities for housing in and around these centres
High levels of accessibility for walking, cycling, public transport or car by being located at a junction in the Principal
Public Transport Network
Vibrant centres of community activity with a range of public facilities
Reinforce the network of centres by connecting all Principal Activity
Centres to the Principal Public
Transport Network
Encourage more mixed use development
Focus for a range of government and community services and facilities
Encourage a wider range of arts, cultural and entertainment facilities
Location for higher density housing
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Major Activity Centre (MAC)
Specialised Activity Centre
(SAC)
Neighbourhood Activity
Centre (NAC)
Serves a smaller catchment than a
Principal Activity Centre
Supplements the network of
Principal Activity Centres
Provides additional scope to accommodate ongoing investment and change in retail, office, service and residential markets
Important economic precincts in
Melbourne
Provides a mix of activities that generate jobs and visitor trips
Generally, a limited mix of uses meeting local convenience needs
Usually less that 10,000 sqm of retail floorspace
Accessible to local community via walking and/or cycling
Accessible by local bus services and public transport links to one or more Principal or Major Activity
Centres
Important community focal point, ideally close to schools, libraries, child care, health services, police stations and other facilities that benefit from good public transport
Encourage mixed use development and continue broadening the range of uses
Encourage a wider range of arts, cultural and entertainment facilities
Location for higher density housing
Upgrade public transport services and connect to the Principal Public
Transport Network
Not to grow substantially if lacks public transport and there are better options to serve the same catchment
Support specialised role and primary function
Should not compete directly with
Principal and Major Activity Centres
Must be located on the Principal
Public Transport Network
Encourage walking, cycling and local public transport use
Development of new growth areas should provide viable locations for
Neighbourhood Activity Centres in areas where their distribution is inadequate
Location should be planned in conjunction with the design of local public transport services
Encourage higher density housing of varied type and style in and around
Neighbourhood Activity Centres
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Employment Corridors Central Activities Districts will be supported by employment corridors that link activity centres, universities, research and technology precincts, medical precincts, and areas with high employment
Provide for substantial increases in employment, housing, education and other opportunities along each corridor and better link them through improved transport connectivity
Link the growing outer areas to a greater choice of jobs, services and goods in the
Corridors
Provide transport networks that allow circumferential, in addition to radial, movements
Source: Melbourne 2030 (Department of Infrastructure, 2002) and Melbourne @ 5 million (Department of
Planning and Community Development, 2008)
2.2
Glossary of Terms and Concepts
The following Figure 5 provides definitions of retail terms and concepts that are relevant to this strategy.
Figure 5: Glossary of Retail Terms and Concepts
Retailing The sale of goods to the general public.
The Victorian Planning Provisions (VPPs) define retail as: “The sale of goods or materials, in any quantity or manner, other than by wholesale.”
Retail goods have been categorised by the Australian Bureau of
Statistics in „Retailing in Victoria 1991/92‟ publication as follows:
Food - supermarket, grocery and specialised food retailing;
Personal and household goods – department store, clothing and soft goods, furniture, houseware, appliance and recreational goods retailing and household equipment and repair services
Selected personal services – cafe, restaurant, optometrist, video hire, laundry and dry cleaning, film processing and hair and beauty services
In analysis, SGS uses the above definition as required and an alternative which rearranges the sub-sectors as follows:
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Hume City Retail Strategy
Shopfront Retail
Core Retail
Retail Centre
Motor Vehicle Retailing and
Services
Bulky Goods
Homemaker Centre
Department Store
Discount Department Store
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Retailing that is undertaken from a shop usually in a shopping centre, mall, street-based strip centre or business district.
A general term that refers to shopfront retailing of goods other than bulky goods and motor vehicle retail and services. Core retail includes retailing of food, personal goods, selected household goods and selected personal services.
A collection of shopfront retail premises or bulky goods premises.
Car, trailer and caravan sales and hire, fuel retailing and automotive repairs and servicing.
According to the Bulky Goods Retailers Association, bulky goods are “large items in terms of size, shape and weight”. The retailers generally sell “homemaker products including furniture, electrical, furnishings, bedding, building materials, household fixtures, and fittings ... Examples of bulky goods store brands include Freedom
Furniture, Beacon Lighting, Spotlight, Supercheap Auto, The Good
Guys, Fantastic Furniture, Barbeques Galore, Harvey Norman,
Forty Winks, OZ Design Furniture and Bunnings”.
A centre that has a number of bulky goods stores focused on households goods such as furniture, electrical and household fixtures.
A large store that offers multiple brands in a wide range of product lines typically including clothing and fashion, cosmetics, sports goods, toys, furniture, electrical goods, appliances and others.
Stores are typically around 20,000 sqm in size and are usually delivered in multi-storey buildings.
The two department store brands operating in Victoria at the time of report preparation are Myer and David Jones.
A large store (but smaller than a department store) that offers multiple brands in a wide range of product lines typically focusing on budget clothing and households goods including cosmetics, sports goods, toys, electrical goods, appliances and others.
Stores are typically around 8,000 sqm in size and are usually delivered in single-level buildings.
Discount department store brands operating in Victoria include big
W, Target, K-mart and smaller versions including Harris Scarfe.
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Supermarket
Mini Major
Retail Warehouse
Speciality Store
Retail Anchor
Hierarchy
A large grocery store that offers a wide range of food and non-food grocery items and related goods.
Food lines include meat, processed foods, fruit and vegetables, dairy goods, bread and baked goods, packaged foods, drinks and in some cases liquor. Non-food items include toiletries, cleaning items, pet goods, selected pharmaceuticals, selected garden and electrical products
A full line supermarket stocks all or most food and non-food grocery product lines and comprises a floorspace size over 3,500 sqm.
Supermarket sizes generally range from 1,000 sqm to 4,200 sqm.
Leading supermarket brands in Victoria are Woolworths (Safeway) and Coles and smaller brands include Aldi, Foodworks and IGA.
A large speciality store, usually between 500 sqm to 3,000 sqm in size, that can perform the role of a retail anchor due to its size and specialisation.
Examples include Toys R Us, Rebel Sport, Priceline and Borders.
A retail warehouse is a large retail store that serves a sub-regional or regional catchment. Retail warehouses are anchor retailers.
Size is typically more than 5,000 sqm.
Examples include Bunnings in hardware, Ikea in household and furniture goods and Costco in general and supermarket style goods.
A shop that specialises in a particular type of merchandise and usually occupies less than 400 sqm of floorspace, and typically around 80 sqm.
A speciality store is a store other than a major store type as described above.
A retail store that can regularly attract customers from a catchment of at least two kilometres diameter and / or 10,000 people.
A retail anchor has significant customer drawing power (or retail gravity) upon which regular trips are generated. Specialty stores and other businesses and services are able to locate near retail anchors to attract customers.
Levels in the retail network whereby there are a small number of large centres and a larger number of smaller centres.
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Catchment Area
Retail Floorspace (sqm)
Turnover
Retail Turnover Density
(RTD)
Market Share
Retail and other land uses agglomerate in centres within the hierarchy depending on their catchment characteristics and their capacity to pay rent.
An area from which a shop or centre draws its regular customers from.
The typical method of defining a catchment is by assessment of natural catchments and the location of competing centres, from which the catchment is divided into sectors such as primary, secondary and tertiary trade areas. The trade area sectors are assigned a unique market share rating for the shop or centre in question.
SGS has advanced this approach to divide a region into small areas on an Australian Bureau of Statistics Journey to Work Travel
Zone basis and is able to mathematically ascribe a market share rating for each Travel Zone.
The floorspace area of a retail premises measured as Gross
Leaseable Area (GLA) in square meters (sqm). The leaseable area is the part of the floorspace that is able to be leased. GLA excludes common areas and access ways and is therefore smaller than gross floorspace.
Gross retail takings measured over one year. Turnover includes
GST unless otherwise stated.
Annual turnover of a shop divided by its floorspace, shown as $ / sqm (per annum).
RTD is a measure of productivity of retail floorspace and varies across different retail commodity groups (depending on the type of goods they sell and their locational and space needs) and varies across different areas (depending on the income and expenditure profile of the catchment).
Average RTDs are used to provide a guide as to whether more floorspace is needed in an area. RTDs generally range between
$2,000 / sqm and $9,000 / sqm. The average of all shops is around $5,000 / sqm in Australia.
Note that the typical retail spend per person in Australia is around
$10,000 per annum. This means that in very broad terms each person supports about 2 sqm of retail space across the retail system; that is: $10,000 per person spend divided by $5,000 / sqm turnover = 2.
The proportion of spending usually directed to a shop or centre from a defined area.
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Escape Spending
Victorian Planning Provisions
(VPPs)
„Shop‟ in Victorian Planning
Provisions (VPPs)
„Retail Premises‟ in Victorian
Planning Provisions (VPPs)
„Restricted Retail Premises‟ in
Victorian Planning Provisions
(VPPs)
Business Zone
Employment Area
For example, a supermarket may achieve 33% market share of supermarket spending from its primary catchment area and 20% from a more remote secondary catchment area. This means that about one in three supermarket trips taken by people in the primary catchment are to the supermarket in question, and one in five trips from the secondary area.
The portion of spending (measured in absolute dollar and percentage terms) that is drawn from a shop or centre‟s catchment to an externally based shop or centre.
Victoria‟s standard Planning Scheme structure and provisions, zones and definitions, upon which the Hume Planning Scheme is based.
“Land used to sell goods or services, or to hire goods. It includes the selling of bread, pastries, cakes or other products baked on the premises. It does not include food and drink premises, gambling premises, landscape gardening supplies, manufacturing sales, market, motor vehicle, boat, or caravan sales, postal agency, primary produce sales, or trade supplies.”
A shop includes: “Adult sex bookshop, Beauty salon, Bottle shop,
Convenience shop, Department store, Hairdresser, Restricted retail
Premises, Supermarket”.
“Land used to: a) sell goods by retail, or by retail and wholesale; b) sell services; or c) hire goods.
A retail premises includes: “Food and drink premises, Gambling premises, Landscape gardening supplies, Manufacturing sales,
Market, Motor vehicle, boat, or caravan sales, Postal agency,
Primary produce sales, Shop, Trade supplies”.
“Land used to sell or hire: a) automotive parts and accessories; b) camping equipment; c) electric light fittings; d) equestrian supplies; e) floor and window coverings; f) furniture, bedding, furnishings, fabric and manchester; g) household appliances, household electrical goods and home entertainment goods; h) party supplies; i) swimming pools; or j) office equipment and supplies.”
Restricted retail includes: “Equestrian supplies, Lighting shop,
Party supplies”.
Used in this report to refer to a Business 1 or Business 2 zone in the Victorian Planning Provisions.
A term used in this report to refer to a predominantly employment zone, in particular an industrial zone (Industrial 1, 2 or 3 zone) or mixed industrial and office zone (Business 3 Zone) or mixed restricted retail and industrial zone (Business 4 zone).
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2.3
Summary and Conclusions
Retailing is a component part of activity centres, and is in many cases the basic „building block‟ and economic driver of activity centres in suburban settings.
Retail hierarchies differ in terminology to more broadly based activity centre hierarchies, but there is alignment based on the size of the catchment that is served, whether it is regional, sub-regional, neighbourhood or local in nature.
Retail hierarchies are generally based on, or defined by, anchor retail stores such as department stores for regional centres, discount department stores for sub-regional centres, supermarkets for neighbourhood centres, speciality stores for local shop nodes and large format retailers in bulky goods agglomerations.
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3 Land Use and Transport Context
3.1
Land Use Context and Directions
3.1.1
Urban Growth Boundary and Investigation Areas
Figures 6 and 7 overleaf show the extent of the existing Urban Growth Boundary and the proposed expansion to it in the Melbourne North Investigation Area of Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea and in
Sunbury as identified in the State Government‟s Delivering Melbourne’s Newest Sustainable
Communities (June 2009).
These boundaries are significant because they define the extent of existing and potential future residential and employment zoned area, and hence retail catchment possibilities. The retail network will be defined mainly by the extent of residential development in the area.
However, retail demand is also generated in surrounding rural areas and country towns and by workers in Hume‟s extensive employment area network but these retail market segments are supplementary to the main residential market.
A number of significantly constrained areas have also been identified, indicating land which is to be excluded from future development. These areas are significant in terms of biodiversity, heritage, landscape features, wildfires and existing and proposed quarries (see following figures for further details).
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Figure 6: Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea – Existing and Proposed Urban Growth Boundary
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Source: DPCD (June 2009)
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Figure 7: Sunbury – Existing and Proposed Urban Growth Boundary
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Source: DPCD (June 2009)
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3.1.2
Existing Zoning Conditions i n Hume
Zoning conditions within the existing Urban Growth Boundary in Hume are shown in the following
Figure 8.
There are generally two broad sub-areas in Hume that operate to some extent as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity. These are the Hume growth corridor and Sunbury township.
The Hume growth corridor can be defined as the area generally between Broadmeadows through to
Craigieburn and beyond. Within this corridor, there are more detailed sub-areas which can be defined as south (Broadmeadows), central (Roxburgh Park) and north (Craigieburn and environs).
The area also has significant employment areas which generate many jobs and have retail needs.
Sunbury is a fairly self-contained satellite town which has a strong relationship with Watergardens
Regional Centre in Brimbank and the Melbourne Airport region.
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Figure 8: Indicative Zoning Conditions in Hume
Source: Derived from DPCD GIS Data
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3.1.3
Hume Growth Area Plan (2005)
A Plan for Melbourne’s Growth Areas (Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2005) identifies current and proposed future residential and employment lands and notional Activity
Centre locations in Melbourne‟s growth areas, including the Hume growth corridor.
The Plan anticipates that Hume will require enough urban land to accommodate up to 35,000 additional residents in 21,000 new dwellings by 2031. The proposed residential areas are generally located north and west of Greenvale Reservoir and Craigieburn Town Centre.
Also significant is Hume‟s job function for metropolitan Melbourne. The availability of industrial land coupled with good trade connections has made Hume a hub of employment and freight, and this role is set to expand with 92,000 to 95,000 additional jobs identified in the plan by 2031.
Future employment lands are generally anticipated in the area stretching from Craigieburn to the north, and around Hume Highway and Somerton Road intersections.
A Plan for Melbourne’s Growth Areas nominates an indicative distribution of Activity Centres across
Hume. However, this distribution is notional only and subject to verification and change.
The update of the growth area as shown in Melbourne @ 5 Million and the subsequent proposed revision to the Urban Growth Boundary downgrades the significance of A Plan for Melbourne’s
Growth Areas as a strategic planning document. The retail and activity centre network in the areas that are planned to change requires review and updating as a result of the policy changes.
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Figure 9: Hume Growth Area Plan (2005)
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Source: A Plan for Melbourne’s Growth Areas (DSE, 2005)
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3.2
Hume Retail Policy Directions
3.2.1
Municipal Strategic Statem ent
Hume’s Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS), referring to the Hume Activity Centre Hierarchy
Study (2004), identifies a hierarchy within Hume as follows.
Principal, Major and Specialised Activity Centres:
Broadmeadows
Melbourne Airport
Future Craigieburn Town Centre
Sunbury Town Centre
PAC, TC
SAC
Future PAC or MAC (to be determined)
MAC
MAC
MAC
Gladstone Park Shopping Centre
Roxburgh Park Shopping Centre
Neighbourhood Activity Centres:
Campbellfield Plaza
Craigieburn East Shopping Centre
Meadow Heights Shopping Centre
Greenvale Shopping Centre
Westmeadows Village Shopping Centre
Dallas Shopping Centre
Tullamarine Shopping Centre
Olsen Place Shopping Centre
NAC
NAC
NAC
NAC
NAC
NAC
NAC
NAC
Gap Road Shopping Centre
Homestead Centre
Upfield Shopping Centre
New Centres in Growth Areas
NAC
NAC
NAC
To be determined
The MSS aims to provide a clear decision making framework. The key recommendations are to support (MSS Clause 21.1):
The continued growth and expansion of Broadmeadows and Roxburgh Park Shopping
Centres;
The development of the Craigieburn Town Centre;
The consolidation and redevelopment of Gladstone Park Shopping Centre and Sunbury
Town Centre;
The development of neighbourhood activity centres of Campbellfield Plaza, Craigieburn
East, Meadow Heights, Greenvale, Westmeadows Village, Dallas, Olsen Place, Tullamarine,
Upfield Shopping Centre and Homestead; and
The establishment of new activity centres where necessary to service the needs of future populations.
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The objectives and strategies of the MSS (Clause 21.3) highlight a number of location-specific opportunities. The following is a summary of the key opportunities detailed in the MSS:
The Roxburgh Park Shopping Centre has the potential to expand, and should be further developed with a focus on retail and community facilities;
Somerton Road should be a focus of restricted retailing (bulky goods);
Meadow Heights Shopping Centre should continue to fulfil a neighbourhood function;
Neighbourhood activity centres such as Olsen Place, Dallas and Barry Road shopping centres should be encouraged to be vibrant and active through improved business mix, streetscape and urban design improvements and marketing and promotion;
The Gladstone Park Shopping Centre and Tullamarine shopping strip should be encouraged to undertake continued development, along with Greenvale Shopping
Centre and Fawkner Street strip;
Land located on the north-west corner of Barrymore Road and Greenvale Drive in
Greenvale is ideal for a shopping centre development;
Smaller local shops in appropriate locations throughout Greenvale should be encouraged and be approximately 90 sqm in size and serve a catchment of approximately 1,500 residents;
The development of the Sunbury Town Centre should be encouraged and comprise higher order retailing, entertainment facilities, and convenience and comparison retailing.
Retail development outside of the centre should only be permitted when it recognises and complements the activity centre‟s role; and
New retail developments in Sunbury which have large floor area requirements and need high exposure and vehicular access should be located outside of the retail core, but within the centre generally.
The above framework requires review and updating as a result of the changing urban development and planning policy context.
3.2.2
Neighbourhood Shopping Centres Local Polic y
Hume‟s Neighbourhood Shopping Centres Local Policy addresses the provision of conveniencebased retail at a neighbourhood level. Neighbourhood shopping centres are generally up to 1,500 sqm in size, and have two to six tenancies and a population catchment of around 5,000 persons.
The key policy implication pertaining to neighbourhood shopping centres focuses on the role these provide in improving neighbourhood amenity and a potential role in reducing car-based trips.
Ideally, neighbourhood shopping centres are to be developed in highly accessible locations where they have frontage to an internal collector or distributor road. Pedestrian accessibility is a vital consideration, and co-location with community facilities is desirable.
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3.3
State Retail Policy Directions
3.3.1
Melbourne @ 5 Million and Melbourne 2030
The update to Melbourne 2030 , Melbourne @ 5 Million, considers revised metropolitan population projections of five million by 2030. The policy provides initiatives which are complementary to the directions of Melbourne 2030 , and therefore the two documents are to be read together.
Melbourne 2030 identifies Broadmeadows as a Principal Activity Centre, Sunbury and Roxburgh
Park as Major Activity Centres and Melbourne Airport as a Specialised Activity Centre 2
The most significant retail policy direction arising from Melbourne @ 5 Million (apart from expansion to the Urban Growth Boundary) is the designation of six new Central Activities Districts
(CADs) in Melbourne located in Box Hill, Broadmeadows, Dandenong, Footscray, Frankston and
Ringwood. This policy focuses the multi-centred city concept on six priority centres for investment and development.
Broadmeadows‟ designation as a CAD is based on its variety of uses and functions which are able to support a high concentration of development. It is located on a linear public transport corridor in Melbourne, providing accessibility to jobs and services to a significant and growing catchment.
Broadmeadows, as a CAD, is expected to develop into a regional centre that performs a similar role to Melbourne Central Activities District at a northern metropolitan regional level. It is expected to accommodate commercial, retail, specialised personal, entertainment, education, government and tourism activities. The CAD is expected to accommodate a high number of jobs and mixed use living and working environments.
This policy of designating priority mixed use centres in the suburbs is a sound one. However, the selection of centres in relation to existing and potential future catchments presents challenges.
The catchment of the Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea growth area is expected to extend between 25 to
30 kilometres north of Broadmeadows and as such accessibility to the northern CAD may be difficult for many future communities.
2 Melbourne Airport is located on Commonwealth land within Hume City Council‟s boundary.
However, it is not managed by Hume‟s Planning Scheme provisions.
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3.3.2
Retail Policy Review: Discussion Paper
The Retail Policy Review was issued for public comment in October 2008 by the Department of
Planning and Community Development. The review highlights key issues and challenges for retailing pertaining to:
The management of growth and the network of centres;
Facilitating appropriate development in appropriate locations;
Managing restricted retail premises;
Managing retail in industrial areas;
Managing new centres and major retail proposals; and
Improving design outcomes.
The review cites four principles to guide the identification and proposed responses of issues and challenges in the review. These principles broadly are:
Consistency with activity centre policy, and clarity and certainty on appropriate locations of retail facilities;
Allowing capacity for growth and change in retailing;
Not limiting retail competition or innovation, or distinguishing between forms of retailing unless there is a clear public policy case for doing so; and
Ensure retail proposals consider impacts to the public realm and contribute to a sense of place and focus for community activity in centres.
The review also yielded a number of policy proposals and implications. Throughout the review, a clear „market based‟ approach is evident however allowances are made for situations where a „clear public policy case‟ for intervention is apparent. Of particular relevance to Hume is the need for
„more regionally focused‟ approaches to major retail proposals. As a result, the policy proposes work with Councils and industry to develop regional retail assessments, and to ensure that structure planning for activity centres provides for adequate retail growth.
Supporting this are measures which seek to provide an overview of retail development trends, including the extent of expected population and employment growth and change, and the identification of the likely scale of future retail growth within the region.
The State Government policy for retailing supports in-centre (ie. within designated activity centres) retail activity where possible. Despite this, much of the action in the retail development industry over the last decade has been in out-of-centre locations, particularly for bulky goods retailing. This has caused confusion for some businesses and a dilemma for metropolitan planning that is intended to be resolved by the revised retail policy.
The issue of in-centre and out-of-centre retail is considered in the Retail Policy Review . Most outof-centre retail occurs in either a Business Zone (B3-B5) or Industrial Zone (INZ1-INZ3). The policy framework supports retail to be located in activity centres but the statutory framework allows retailing in a variety of settings.
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The following Figure 10 provides an overview of allowable retail activity in Business and Industrial zones.
Figure 10: Selected Retail Categories Allowable in Business and Industrial
Zones
Source: Retail Policy Review (DPCD, 2008)
The review favours the current situation of general retail being located in-centre, and restricted retail being permitted to locate out-of-centre. However, the review proposes that the range of goods sold in restricted retail premises not be broadened.
The review proposes an amendment to industrial zones, so that restricted retail premises become a prohibited use. In implementing this policy response, the review suggests that transitional arrangements and work with Councils be undertaken to deal with restricted retail premises currently located in industrial areas.
The major potential implications for Hume regarding the Retail Policy Review are as follows.
There is continued support for activity centres but planning is to consider regional scale demand over a long time frame. This could mean that forward planning land allocations for centres may need to consider more demand than has traditionally been the case.
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Retail activity in industrial zones may be prohibited and therefore rezoning may be required to facilitate retail expansion in industrial areas, should this be desired.
3.3.3
Place Making
A recent trend has been for councils to appoint place managers to co-ordinate the delivery of projects and development within centres. Place management professionals are generally employed for activity centres that comprise multiple sites in fragmented property ownership. The professional performs a role similar to a shopping centre manager but does not have the benefit of ownership and control of centre leases and covenants that provide power and income to the shopping centre manager to implement strategies and co-ordinate operations.
Funding of place management and related projects is generally provided by the public, for the benefit of a centre and hence the catchment population. Funding is sometime supplemented or fully funded by a centre specific tax, via the use of special rates.
The State Government, via the Department of Planning and Community Development, provides a
Creating Better Places Program, which helps to fund place managers and strategic projects that implement Growing Victoria Together and the metropolitan strategy. The program funds:
Physical improvements to publicly owned and accessible places, targeted at principal and major activity centres;
Bridging projects, which are strategic, infrastructure or urban design projects that lead from structure plans to physical improvement projects;
Place managers, whereby one year of co-funding is provided for a place manager to support development and capital investment in activity centres, subject to commitment from councils for ongoing funding for two to three years; and
Strategic works, such as new structure plans, urban design frameworks and other strategic studies that have metropolitan strategy objectives.
Hume City Council could access this assistance to help deliver its network of activity centre.
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3.4
Transport Context
3.4.1
Existing Transport Facilities
Hume‟s location within metropolitan Melbourne has supported its continued development as a gateway city and its role in supporting several strategic transport corridors. Vital to metropolitan
Melbourne‟s economic prosperity is the Hume Highway corridor (along with the Hume Freeway and
Craigieburn Line Railway and Upfield Line Railway), however a number of other corridors characterise the transport profile of Hume. These include:
Pascoe Vale Road corridor;
Tullamarine Freeway (including Sunbury Road and Bulla Road sections);
The Calder Freeway, along the western boundary of Hume; and
The V/Line extension of the Sydenham Rail Corridor to Sunbury.
These primary transport corridors are supported by a series of arterial roads, providing connections to key activity centres throughout Hume. Figure 11 illustrates existing transport infrastructure in
Hume.
With respect to existing public transport, Hume is serviced by two suburban rail lines (Craigieburn and Upfield railway lines), the Sunbury V/Line service and a range of metropolitan and regional bus services. Based on this, transport accessibility has been mapped using travel distances to public transport nodes of 800m to buses and 1200m to train stations. Note that these are higher than typical urban accessibility distances (400m and 800m) due to the urban-fringe location of Hume.
Public transport accessibility is shown in Figure 12.
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Figure 11: Existing Transport Infrastructure
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Figure 12: Public Transport Accessibility
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3.4.2
Existing and Emerging T ransport Issues
Current world transportation management trends favour sustainable transport initiatives. There is a clear understanding that the policy decisions made today will shape the urban form of tomorrow.
As petrol prices increase, private car travel will increasingly become a luxury for some. Through appropriate land-use and transport planning it needs to be ensured that retail centres within Hume continue to be accessible to all members of the public. Other relevant issues include the following.
A Melbourne-wide increase in traffic levels, particularly within Melbourne‟s growth areas.
This trend is predicted to continue over the next few years and will continue to increase pressure on the existing road network, increasing congestion and delays.
The expanded growth of the urban fringe. Newer areas of residential development can result in lower income households facing higher than average transport costs to access facilities and employment.
Consideration of transport based greenhouse gas emissions. As more and more emphasis
(and cost) is placed on greenhouse gas emissions this will result in an increasing emphasis on adopting modes of transport and / or vehicles with a lower carbon footprint.
Increasing growth in cycling and walking. Cycling in particular has experienced a renaissance with significant growth in commuter and recreational cycling; this will affect travel patterns, urban form and the way road space is utilised and designed.
Increases in freight to service new growth and development areas. Increases in freight will contribute to increased traffic congestion with the impact of increased levels of heavy vehicles on the urban environment will also require consideration.
Demographic change and mobility. The potential decreased mobility of Melbourne‟s ageing population may require greater provision of public transport including the suitable placement of retail and other day-to-day facilities.
Reducing household size. As the average household size decreases, the average number of trips per household will increase placing greater pressure on our transport network.
3.4.3
Transport Directions in Hume
This part of the report reviews existing transport policy by transport mode. Local issues and constraints are identified, and key proposed projects are also noted. Information has been sourced from policies including The Victorian Transport Plan (Department of Transport, 2008), Melbourne
2030 and Melbourne @ 5 Million , and the Hume Transport Priorities Plan (Hume City Council 2004).
The key proposed infrastructure improvements in and around Hume are shown in Figure 13.
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Figure 13: Proposed Transport Infrastructure
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Private Vehicles
Private vehicles are typically less constrained than other modes of transport and are able to manoeuvre through the urban environment along any road. At the same time, awareness of the environmental impacts of private vehicle use is increasing.
Key issues relating to car use in Hume include increasing traffic congestion on the road network, which is compounded by the limited number of east-west arterial routes. This has led to accessibility problems to the western areas of the municipality. A number of parallel north-south arterial routes towards the east of the municipality are also heavily used. The metropolitan-wide expectation that traffic levels will increase will further impact traffic levels in Hume.
The Melbourne Integrated Transport Model (MITM) is an integrated highway and public transport demand model that allows forecasted changes to land use and / or the highway and public transport networks to be modelled and forecast trip making patterns to be reviewed. The MITM was used to analyse the Broadmeadows Transit City (Department of Transport, 2008).
The modelling predicts that by 2021, under both the low and high scenarios, traffic growth will be generally 3-7% higher than 2006 base levels. There will be key sections and intersections on
Pascoe Vale Road that may be subject to notable congestion and delays. The same results are displayed for the 2031 scenarios where the general growth in traffic is expected to be generally 5-
9% higher than 2006 base levels. These findings are mapped and presented in Appendix 1.
Appendix 1 provides a 2006 and indicative 2031 AM peak traffic count on Hume‟s „one mile grid‟ road network. The 2031 data should be treated with caution as the situation is likely to change as the road network and transport system changes and planning frameworks change. Nevertheless, these numerical guides provide information on existing and possible future traffic flows which can inform the position of retail activities and activity centres.
A number of transport infrastructure upgrades can impact private vehicle use. Road improvements and extensions such as the outer metropolitan ring road and regional road upgrades (as proposed in Victoria’s Transport Plan ) directly impact on traffic levels. Improvements to alternative forms of transport however can shift demand to other transport modes, leading to less congestion.
Freight
The demand for the movement of freight is growing and with port expansion, potential new freight hubs being mooted and with significant employment and business growth identified along the
Hume corridor, there is an expectation that freight movements will be a notable growth area for traffic in the region.
In addition, growth in freight in Hume will also increase in association with an increased residential population, services and increased retail opportunities. The movement of freight will need to be
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Hume City Retail Strategy carefully managed to ensure that growth is targeted in areas that can absorb this growth and alongside land uses that are less sensitive to heavy truck movement.
Freight is a significant economic and transport function of cities, yet it is plagued by conflicts and issues. Firstly, freight is an activity best removed from residential areas due to noise and air pollution impacts, in addition to safety impacts. Secondly, freight utilises strategic roads, leading to high levels of congestion.
Victoria’s Transport Plan proposes that a new freight terminal is located at Donnybrook /
Beveridge. This terminal is expected to improve the flow of freight on a metropolitan level, but may lead to higher volumes of freight movements throughout Hume.
Public Transport
Public transport service provision within Hume is relatively poor on a metropolitan Melbourne scale.
The urban form within Hume does not readily lend itself to public transport provision due to low densities.
Rail services remain limited by expense of expansion and electrification and most bus services are convoluted and at poor service interval levels. Public transport movements have typically focused along the key corridors with limited east-west movements being catered for.
The Victorian Transport Plan proposes a number of improvements to Hume‟s public transport network. These include:
Additional VLine carriages;
Electrification of the rail line to Sunbury;
A proposed station at Coolaroo;
New railway stations in growth areas;
Level crossing upgrades;
Additional park and ride facilities; and
Green and Yellow Orbital SmartBus routes.
Figure 13 above shows the Green and Yellow Orbital SmartBus routes. These services will provide east-west linkages through the southern and central parts of the Hume growth corridor and improve the catchments for retailers in Broadmeadows and Roxburgh Park in particular.
A number of these proposals were initially proposed in Hume’s Transport Priorities Plan (2004).
In addition, Meeting our Transport Challenges (2006) proposed stabling to the Broadmeadows
Train corridor, and investigation of the Roxburgh Park to Upfield train link.
Due to Hume‟s lack of east-west connections, the Moreland Bus Review focused on the potential of buses to increase cross-town accessibility. The key recommendations arising from the review included ensuring 90% of households were within 400m of a bus stop, and that service frequencies increase to 9pm, 7 days per week and incorporating better integration of train services.
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Walking and Cycling
While all streets within the municipality can be used by cyclists and pedestrians (excluding freeways), the road network is generally designed for and dominated by motor vehicles. As a result the vast majority of the road network is unattractive and / or unsafe for use by these modes.
Cycling is typically considered an acceptable mode choice for trips of less than 10km, with walking for trips less than 2km. These distances are decreased for short-duration trips or retail trips that require the carry of purchases on return.
The spread of urban development and activity centres within Hume is such that cycling and walking is often not conducive modes of transport for access for the bulk of the population. Further, as with all modes, the adoption of cycling and walking is constrained by the provision of appropriate facilities such as overpasses, crossing facilities, footpaths, cycle paths, bicycle parking, street lighting and visual surveillance.
The Victorian Transport Plan proposes further bicycle rail trails throughout Melbourne.
3.4.4
Accessibilit y and Retail
In urban fringe locations, accessibility is typically achieved by the private car. Low density development mixed with a limited network make private vehicles one of the only convenient modes of transport. As a result, retail sites remain popular along key arterial routes.
The cost of travel has steadily increased over time and in countries where price is notably higher, retail has noted a resurgence in centrally located public transport accessible locations. Further to this, once car-focused retail centres are retrofitting considerable public transport connections to enable their target customers to access their stores. This is future-proofing.
Currently, retail often remains reliant on private car access but there are examples in Melbourne where retail is ensuring walk, cycle and public transport access is viable for their staff and customers. As the growth areas develop and improvements to the transport network are realised, retail would benefit from locating on routes and in locations that are either currently accessible by public transport or they will be able to be accessed by public transport in the future.
Retail catchments will increasingly become determined by the following three groups:
Car drivers and passengers – from local to regional catchments;
Public transport users – along routes connecting to centres; and
By pedestrians and cyclists - from the surrounding 2km zone.
Retail will increasingly need to respond to the „local living‟ agenda by ensuring the area surrounding the retail core provides accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists. Public transport will also need to respond ensuring that accessibility is not only provided along north-south arterial routes but also east-west routes.
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Accessibility also relates to hours of operation. Increasingly retail centres offer a wider offer of services and leisure activities which can extend a location‟s hours of operation. Public transport will need to provide a more comprehensive service. Accessibility is already a contributing factor to the success of retail centres.
3.5
Summary and Conclusions
Urban Policy
The proposed expansion to the Urban Growth Boundary in Melbourne‟s north is significant because it defines the extent of existing and potential future residential and employment zoned area, and hence retail catchment possibilities. The retail network will be defined mainly by the extent of residential development in the area.
There are generally two broad sub-regions in Hume and surrounds that operate to some extent as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity. These are the Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-
Region and the Sunbury Sub-Region.
The existing urban framework and retail and activity centre hierarchy will require review and revision in light of the Melbourne @ 5 Million urban growth proposal. This policy generally confirms the existing hierarchy and designates six new Central Activities Districts (CADs) as priority centres for development, with the northern region CAD being Broadmeadows.
However, the proposed revision to the Urban Growth Boundary increases the case for Craigieburn
Town Centre to perform a bigger retail function than has been planned in the past, given its potential to access the new release areas. The urban policy change may see Craigieburn ultimately perform a bigger role than Broadmeadows in retail terms in the future.
The policy of designating priority mixed use centres in the suburbs (via CADs) is a sound one.
However, the selection of centres in relation to existing and potential future catchments is an issue. The catchment of the Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region is expected to extend between
25 to 30 kilometres north of Broadmeadows and as such accessibility to the northern CAD may be difficult for many future communities.
Future Locations
Hume‟s location within metropolitan Melbourne has supported its continued development as a gateway city. Hume supports several strategic transport corridors. In the future additional pressure from private vehicles and freight will present the City with numerous transport challenges, especially in southern parts of the City and along major roads along employment corridors.
The importance of public transport and walking and cycling accessibility to retail and activity centres is increasing in significance. The provision of future centres should give substantial consideration to public transport accessibility such as existing and proposed bus routes and rail services. This is in addition to providing quality road access for private vehicles.
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Proposed public transport service investments in addition to urban release plans combine to elevate parts of the City for urban and retail development. The major transport projects of note are:
Electrification of the rail line to Sunbury;
New railway stations in growth areas; and
Green and Yellow Orbital SmartBus routes.
In addition to this, retail will increasingly need to respond to the „local living‟ agenda by ensuring the area surrounding the retail core provides high quality accessibility for pedestrians and cyclists.
Cycling is typically considered an acceptable mode choice for trips of less than 10km, with walking for trips less than 2km. These distances are decreased for short-duration trips or retail trips that require the carry of purchases on return.
Retail Specific Matter
The retail policy review proposes that retail activity in industrial zones be prohibited and therefore rezoning may be required to facilitate retail expansion in industrial areas, should this be desired.
This has significant implications for the management of bulky goods retailing in the City.
State Funding Assistance
A recent trend has been for councils to appoint place managers to co-ordinate the delivery of projects and development within activity centres. Hume City Council could access assistance via the State‟s Creating Better Places Program to assist with place manager funding, strategic planning and capital works.
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4 Retail Stocktake and Proposals
This section identifies current and proposed retail centres and floorspace in Hume and within the wider northern Melbourne region.
The existing retail hierarchy and floorspace supply in Hume is estimated based on available information. Retail supply in the greater northern Melbourne region is also estimated, focusing on major centres that have an influence on the Hume retail system. Proposed retail is identified to the extent possible based on consultation with selected landholders, government agencies and retailers.
4.1
Existing Hierarchy and Retail Supply
4.1.1
Retail Centres
A total of 15 significant retail centres are currently located in Hume, as shown in Figure 14 below.
In total, these centres are estimated to accommodate about 264,000 sqm of retail floorspace.
The breakdown of space is estimated to be:
Approximately 163,000 sqm of in-centre shopping centre or enclosed mall space (62%);
Approximately 71,200 sqm of in-centre bulky goods retail space (27%); and
Approximately 29,200 sqm of in-centre street-based retail space (11%).
The largest retail centre in Hume is Broadmeadows, followed by Sunbury, Gladstone Park and
Roxburgh Park. The retail hierarchy in Hume is as follows:
Small Regional Centre / Large Sub-Regional Centre (Discount Department Store Based):
Broadmeadows
Sub-Regional Centre (Discount Department Store Based):
Sunbury
Roxburgh Park
Gladstone Park
Campbellfield
Neighbourhood Centre (Supermarket Based) are located at Craigieburn, Dallas, Greenvale, Meadow
Heights, Westmeadows, Olsen Place, Tullamarine, Gap Road Sunbury and Roxburgh Homestead.
Local Shops are located at Upfield and at other convenience locations.
Bulky Goods (In Addition to Centre Based Bulky Goods are mainly located at the Hume Highway
Cluster. The only significant Market is located at Pipeworks.
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Figure 14: Hume’s Retail Provision (2009 Estimate) – Estimated Gross
Leaseable Floorspace in Square Metres (sqm) and Major Tenants
Centre
Broadmeadows
Sunbury
Roxburgh Park
Gladstone Park
Campbellfield
Craigieburn
Dallas
Greenvale
Meadow Heights
Westmeadows
Olsen Place
Upfield
Tullamarine
Gap Road, Sunbury
Homestead
Total
Centre
Enclosed Mall
5,071
0
3,532
0
0
2,600
2,000
163,033
55,900
22,426
9,147
21,351
16,396
10,063
8,047
6,500
Bulky Goods/
Restricted
Retail
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
71,195
37,770
14,505
16,400
0
1,720
0
0
800
Street Based
Retail
Major DDS and SM Tenants
Broadmeadows
Sunbury
Roxburgh Park
Gladstone Park
Campbellfield
Craigieburn
Dallas
Greenvale
Meadow Heights
Westmeadows
Olsen Place
Upfield
Tullamarine
Gap Road, Sunbury
Homestead
Big W, Target, Best & Less, Safeway, Coles
Big W, Kmart, Best & Less, Harris Scarfe, Coles, Safeway
Safeway
Dimmeys, Woolworths
Kmart, Coles
Safeway
Coles, Foodrite
Coles
IGA
IGA
IGA
None
IGA
Aldi
IGA
Source: SGS, Property Council of Australia (2008); Estimate Only
Note: Estimate Only
Figure 15 overleaf plots the municipal retail hierarchy.
0
4,470
0
3,500
2,772
0
0
29,179
2,948
14,489
0
0
1,000
0
0
0
Total
5,071
4,470
3,532
3,500
2,772
2,600
2,000
263,408
96,618
51,421
25,547
21,351
19,116
10,063
8,047
7,300
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Figure 15: Hume’s Retail Hierarchy
Hume City Retail Strategy
Note: This figure includes indicative locations of proposed retail centres by developers / landholders in addition to exiting centres and approved centres. Proposed centres have not necessarily been approved and may not be approved by the relevant Council and / or State Government.
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4.1.2
Bulk y Goods
Bulky goods retailing is located throughout the northern region of Melbourne, often adjacent to existing shopping centres or in specific homemaker centres or in standalone locations often along busy roads. In Hume, bulky goods is located in centres and is also scattered across the municipality in industrial areas.
Major in-centre bulky goods nodes are:
Broadmeadows (eg. Bunnings, Harvey Norman);
Sunbury (eg. Bunnings); and
Roxburgh Park (various tenants).
The following Figure 16 provides a map of jobs in the household goods retail sector (which is a close proxy for bulky goods retailing) in a selected part of Hume (excluding Melbourne Airport).
This shows that areas along Hume Highway accommodate household goods retailing activities.
Figure 16: Household Goods Retailing in Selected Areas
4.1.3
Market
Pipeworks is a 7.8 hectare variety market located on Mahoneys Road in Campbellfield. The market is open on weekends only and focuses on variety goods such as clothing, gifts, homewares, electrical goods and souvenirs. It also has a fresh food section.
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4.2
Major Retail Centres in the Region
Retail centres in the wider metropolitan region have the potential to significantly impact the retail environment and network of Hume. Figure 17 provides a profile of major centres surrounding
Hume (showing only enclosed mall retail space). Only larger retail centres and bulky goods outlets are identified in Figure 17, as these have the greatest potential to impact on expenditure patterns in the region.
The largest retail centre in the region is Northland Shopping Centre in Darebin. This is also the only centre to have a department store (Myer). The other regional / sub-regional centres of significance are Watergardens, Epping Plaza, Plenty Valley and Airport West. These centres are described further in Appendix 2.
Major bulky goods retail nodes located outside of Hume are also shown in Figure 17. These nodes generally co-locate with existing shopping centres.
Figure 17: Major Retail Centres in the Region
Centre
Northland Shopping Centre
Watergardens Town Centre
Epping Plaza
Westfield Plenty Valley*
Westfield Airport West
DFO Essendon Airport
Northland Homemaker Centre
Watergardens Homemaker Centre
Homemaker City Epping
Thomastown Homemaker Centre
Homemaker Hub Essendon Airport
Approximate
Mall /
Shopping
Centre Retail
GLA
71,000
Major Retail Tenancies
Myer, Kmart, Coles, Safeway
53,000
53,000
Big W, Target, Coles, Safeway
Target, Big W, Harris Scarfe, Safeway, Coles
49,000
53,000
50,000
31,000
20,000
18,000
17,000
14,000
Kmart, Target, Coles, Woolworths, Aldi
Target, Kmart, Harris Scarfe, Safeway, Aldi, Bi-Lo, Coles
Discount Outlets (Various)
Fantastic Furniture, The Good Guys, Barbeques Galore
Harvey Norman, Rays Outdoors, Bunnings
Officeworks, Adriatic Furniture, Fitness First
Harvey Norman, Bunnings, The Good Guys
JB Hi Fi, Adairs, Snooze
Location
(LGA)
Darebin
Brimbank
Whittlesea
Whittlesea
Moonee Valley
Moonee Valley
Darebin
Brimbank
Whittlesea
Whittlesea
Moonee Valley
*Planned retail floorspace
Source: SGS, Property Council of Australia (2008); Estimate Only
Appendix 3 provides various graphics of retail locations for the region of Hume and southern
Macedon Ranges and southern Mitchell. Appendix 3 plots retail locations on the basis of retail jobs by type in travel zones for total retail, department stores, household goods and supermarkets.
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4.3
Proposed Centres
Information in this sub-section has been drawn from selected consultations with landholders, retailers, councils and government agencies and drawn from reports and plans. The information presented is SGS‟s interpretation of the information based on information provided and may not be comprehensive.
4.3.1
Approved Centres
The following centres have been approved for future development to at least concept level.
Broadmeadows Train Station and Nearby Streets
Hume City Council‟s preferred development partner for the development of precincts in
Broadmeadows, including the rail station precinct, envisages public transport infrastructure driven investment which would include retail at ground level and office space at upper levels.
Redevelopment would focus on the activation of retail frontages and street level retail. A major issue is management of car parking in the area.
Roxburgh Park
Roxburgh Park has approval to increase to 32,000 sqm of retail floorspace. A development plan has been approved for the centre, which includes 28,000 sqm of retail including an existing full line supermarket, a discount department store, a mini major and a smaller supermarket. It is anticipated that development will begin within the next 12 months.
A bulky goods retail precinct is being planned for the southern part of the centre. This is expected to accommodate major bulky goods retailers.
Craigieburn Town Centre
The Craigieburn Town Centre is planned to have a total retail floorspace of 55,000 sqm comprising a department store, discount department stores, 3-4 supermarkets, market, specialty shops, professional suites, peripheral sales, retail services and a home and garden centre.
Stage 1 of the development is planned for 2012, commencing in the third quarter of 2010. The first stage will provide approximately 30,000 to 40,000 sqm of retail floorspace comprising at least one discount department store and two supermarkets, with a substantial amount of supporting mini-majors and specialty stores.
The key challenge is to develop a world class town centre at Craigieburn which incorporates a main street.
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The owner of the site is considering longer term development options which could increase the size of the centre in the future, including the retail function.
Highlands
A supermarket-based convenience centre (3,800 sqm supermarket) is planned for the Highlands housing estate. The town centre is also expected to incorporate specialty stores and community services.
Greenvale Lakes
The Greenvale Lakes Shopping Centre has rezoning approval for 2,750 sqm retail convenience centre.
Melbourne Airport
The Melbourne Airport Retail Power Centre is proposed for Commonwealth Land at Melbourne
Airport. A proposal for a 48,000 sqm (approximate) centre has been approved, focusing on bulky goods retail. The centre would also have a convenience and entertainment retail function comprising a supermarket, tavern and fitness centre.
The retail centre is proposed to be located about one to two kilometres from the airport terminal.
The primary market for the centre would be the north-western region of Melbourne, including much of Hume.
A preliminary plan has been developed to add to the approved space noted above by another
48,000 sqm (approximate), focusing on bulky goods retail, office and warehouse space.
Folkestone Employment Land
Donnybrook Road employment land is proposed to be developed as an office park, based on the
NorWest Business Park model in Sydney. There is potential for around 1,700 sqm of retail plus specialities, including a supermarket.
4.3.2
Mooted Centres
Donnybrook
It is likely that Donnybrook will be the focus of a new Major Activity Centre, with a train station planned for the site.
Merrifield Employment and Residential Estate
The Merrifield employment area spans 1,000 hectares and was zoned „Comprehensive
Development‟ in 2008. A Major Activity Centre is proposed for the area but has no status in the
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Hume City Retail Strategy planning scheme as yet. The proposed E14 motorway will connect to the proposed activity centre, which is claimed to have potential for 19,000 sqm of retail with the possibility of expanding to
50,000 to 60,000 sqm in the long term. It is expected that the model of development employed will be based on the University Hill project, integrating street-based retail and white collar employment.
Lockerbie
The proposed Lockerbie estate located in the vicinity of Kalkallo is planned to comprise 1,125 hectares of predominantly residential development, yielding approximately 13,000 lots. The development envisages a town centre in close proximity to Beveridge Train Station and possibly three neighbourhood level activity centres. The town centre could be around 20,000-25,000 sqm and comprise at least 2 supermarkets and a discount department store.
The proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Transport Corridor could intersect the Lockerbie site and therefore impact on the capacity of the area to perform an integrated town function.
Pipeworks
A number of redevelopment options have been prepared for the site. At this preliminary stage, it is envisaged by the owner that retail and / or business park uses would be suited to the site. Options being considered include:
Predominantly retail uses, focusing on bulky goods;
Predominantly business park uses, focusing on commercial services;
Predominantly education and community uses; and
Predominantly aged care and housing uses.
Mickleham Road Corridor of Greenvale / Craigieburn
A developer and retail operators are considering options to deliver convenience retail facilities along and / or near Mickleham Road and in Craigieburn.
Hume Highway Corridor at Campbellfield
A concept to expand the bulky goods retail offer near the existing Campbellfield Plaza and nearly bulky goods uses has been mooted.
Craiglee Winery at Sunbury
A concept to establish a new neighbourhood centre within a residential estate at the Craiglee
Winery region of Sunbury has been mooted.
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4.4
Summary and Conclusions
A total of 15 significant retail centres are currently located in Hume. These are estimated to accommodate about 264,000 sqm of retail floorspace.
Most of Hume‟s retail floorspace is located in designated activity centres. The largest retail centre in Hume is Broadmeadows, followed by Sunbury, Gladstone Park and Roxburgh Park.
Campbellfield is also a significant retail centre in the municipality.
Bulky goods retailing is located throughout the northern region of Melbourne, often adjacent to existing shopping centres or in specific homemaker centres or in standalone locations often along busy roads. In Hume, bulky goods is generally located in centres, and to some extent in industrial areas, especially along the Hume Highway corridor.
The major planned retail developments which will impact on the wider retail development framework of Hume are:
Consolidation of Roxburgh Park as a sub-regional centre;
The development of the Craigieburn Town Centre into a sub-regional centre in the short term; and
The development of the bulky goods focused retail centre at Melbourne Airport.
In addition to the above, various supermarket-based convenience centres are planned for various residential and employment areas.
Other mooted (but not approved) retail developments include:
A town centre at Donnybrook station;
A town centre at Merrifield;
A town centre at Lockerbie;
Redevelopment of the Pipeworks market, potentially accommodating major retail uses;
Bulky goods development along the Hume Highway corridor; and
Supermarket-based convenience centres within residential and employment areas.
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5 Trends in Retailing
This section explores recent trends in retailing by focusing on expenditure trends and patterns, from the perspective of consumers, and existing and emerging retail delivery models, from the perspective of retailers. Other retail matters are also explored.
5.1
Expenditure and Development Trends
During the economic restructuring of the 1980s, little change was observed in the sales of retail commodity groups in Australia. Change emerged after the recession of the early 1990s, where growth in consumer spending on supermarkets, household goods and other retail have underpinned Australia‟s total retail growth. It is worth noting that these three growth sectors have also traditionally been the three most popular areas of consumer spending, as shown in Figure 18.
Figure 18: Retail Expenditure Per Household in Constant 2008$, Australia
Total (Right Axis)
10,000
Clothing
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1983 1988
Supermarkets
Household goods
1993
Other Food
Other retail
1998
Source: SGS calculations based on ABS catalogues 8501, 6401 and 3101.
2003
Department Stores
Hospitality and services
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
2008
0
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As shown in the following Figure 19, the trends observed in Victoria largely mirror the national trend, albeit with more volatility at the State level.
Figure 19: Retail Turnover Per Household in Constant 2008$, Victoria
Total (Right Axis)
10,000
Clothing
9,000
8,000
Supermarkets
Household goods
Other Food
Other retail
Department Stores
Hospitality and services
30,000
25,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 0
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Source: SGS calculations based on ABS catalogues 8501, 6401 and 3101.
The key points are:
Supermarkets are the primary retail commodity group for households; and
Household goods has boomed to become the second most important retail commodity group. This has been associated with the housing boom over the past two decades.
An observed trend has been the development or larger supermarket-based centres that draw on larger car-based catchments, especially in metropolitan growth areas. This is driven in part by urban form which is generally characterised by low housing densities, poor public transport provision and reliance of car as the primary travel mode for shopping.
A recent shift in urban policy has been to focus effort on distributing neighbourhood centres at a finer grain across urban areas and growth areas, in order to facilitate development of community hubs that focus on people, walking, cycling, connection to place and quality of life.
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The boom in household goods and bulky goods retailing has challenged the planning system due to rapid growth and large land take, and this sector can be expected to be a major retail planning challenge for Hume in the coming decades.
5.2
Retail Delivery Models
5.2.1
Superm arkets
A key component of delivering new and sustaining or repairing old communities in Hume will be to build a network of supermarket-based centres. In addition to being the primary commodity group for household retail spending, supermarkets perform an anchor function for neighbourhood centres.
Following is a summary of contemporary supermarket delivery models for the so-called major or
„full line‟ supermarkets and the smaller versions.
Major supermarket operators generally prefer:
Locations such as corners of major roads and near public transport nodes, due to high exposure levels and accessibility to customers;
High quality and visible car parking for customers at the front door;
Ample room and well designed delivery and „back of house‟ operations;
A base catchment of at least 10,000 people but expenditure would be drawn from a larger catchment and hence a highly accessible and visible location is desired;
Floorspace of at least 3,800 sqm; and
A functional retail mall design. A „main street‟ design is not seen as being important for the retail operator, and indeed can be a hindrance to retail performance if accessibility, exposure, car parking, deliveries, site lines and walkability are not addressed appropriately.
Small supermarket operators generally prefer:
Locations (similar to larger supermarkets) at main roads and at „gateways‟ to estates;
A base catchment of around 3,000 to support a small supermarket, but this figure is variable;
Floorspace around the 500 sqm to 2,000 sqm mark and perhaps bigger;
Catchments that have a gap in major supermarket provision;
A „main street‟ design. Smaller operators will generally have a convenience focus, with walking catchments and main street design given greater consideration.
However, it is generally acknowledged that prices in smaller convenience based supermarkets tend to be higher than in the large volume supermarkets.
Notably, both large and smaller format supermarkets favour high levels of exposure and accessibility.
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The main-street format of new retail developments appears to be more favoured by smaller supermarket operators whereas the large chain supermarkets tend to favour enclosed centres which are less vulnerable to negative effects of weather and car parking constraints.
5.2.2
Discount Department Stores
Discount department stores share similar location criteria to that of larger format supermarkets.
Main road locations, particularly corner-road positions are preferred, and an abundance of car parking is favoured due to the nature of the goods sold.
Floorspace size is generally around 8,000 sqm and catchments are in the order of 35,000 people, given the less-utilised nature of these stores. Discount department stores are co-located with supermarkets to facilitate viability and generate multi-purpose trips.
5.2.3
Department Stores
Population catchments for department stores are larger than other types of retailers, and they tend to be disproportionately distributed throughout metropolitan Melbourne. This reflects the location requirements utilised by department stores, which includes regional catchments and selected demographics.
Consultation with two major department store operators indicated that no stores are proposed for
Hume in the foreseeable future, however two Myer stores have been proposed in the adjacent municipalities of Whittlesea (Plenty Valley) and Brimbank (Watergardens) by approximately 2011.
The catchment of both proposed stores would cover Hume to some extent and as such the potential for Hume to attract a department store in the short term appears limited.
However, given the proposed expansion to the Urban Growth Boundary, there may be capacity for
Hume to be positioned to capture a department store operator in the longer term.
5.2.4
Bulk y Goods
Genuine bulky goods consume large retail floorplates and achieve a lower RTD compared with core retail services. Decades ago this issue was addressed by department stores accommodating bulky goods on upper (and lower pedestrian traffic) floors of multi-storey buildings.
The dominance of vertically integrated major retail businesses (ie. major department stores) has become more fragmented over a number of decades whereby many new and innovative business formats have emerged, with some specialising in bulky goods retailing. The trend has been for modern bulky goods retailers to develop cost-effective single level buildings at highly visible road locations on sites with ample car parking.
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The amount of land required to accommodate these businesses has arguably caught the planning system off-guard to some extent, resulting in significant dispersion of such activity across the urban landscape, including in industrial zones.
The State Government‟s Retail Policy Review Discussion Paper proposes to exclude Restricted
Retail (or bulky goods) from industrial zones, meaning that land specifically zoned for the purpose would need to be provided. The Bulky Goods Retailers Association has expressed concern at that proposal because it has the view that insufficient land has been provided for the sector in the past, and that implementation of such a proposal must be accompanied with a clear and appropriate land release strategy. Another issue is that existing retailers in industrial areas would become non-conforming uses which may have impacts on some businesses.
5.2.5
Mini Majors and Retail W arehouses
Mini majors predominantly locate near existing retail centres, however there is a trend towards
„stand alone‟ developments given some retailers have the capacity to generate their own catchment.
There is potential for regions of Melbourne to accommodate large retail warehouses, which could impact on various levels of the retail hierarchy. Retailers like Costco for example may compete with supermarkets and discount department stores to some extent, across a regional area, and hence establishment of such facilities should ideally focus on activity centres.
5.3
Growth Areas Activity Centre Model
The Growth Areas Authority is developing a response to the supermarket-centre delivery challenge, with an objective to facilitate development of a larger number of smaller, single supermarketbased centres. It is understood that the model may involve prescribing supermarket limits per centre to one and potentially limiting centre size to serve a notional catchment of around 3,000 households or 9,000 people. The smaller centres would be located on major arterial roads on a notional „one mile grid‟ in growth areas. Multiple catchments of this size would build up to support a sub-regional centre.
The general concept being developed by the GAA has merit but presents challenges because:
Centres respond to the nature of their catchments, in terms of size, housing and population density and income profile;
Centres respond to the competitive network of centres;
Not all main road locations are appropriate for neighbourhood centres and can be inconsistent with concepts of walkability – one of the main functions of the neighbourhood centre concept; and
Imposing arbitrary limits on business operations including retail business models should be avoided without having a very strong case for doing so.
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It is likely that in many growth areas relatively low housing densities and car dependency will contribute to retail expenditures being directed to major centres that offer choice. On this basis capping retail activity at the higher end of the retail spectrum could have a greater distributional impact on retail activity that caps at the lower end. Caps at the lower end of the spectrum could direct more expenditure to sub-regional and regional centres. Each case must be considered on its merits to avoid unintended outcomes.
5.4
Retail Supply
ACCC Review
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) 3 report on competitiveness in the
Australian grocery sector highlights a number of issues which has implications for land use planning and property management. Specifically, the report analyses the extent to which competition has contributed to increased grocery prices in recent times. The ACCC uses a supply chain approach in its analysis of the cost of groceries in Australia.
The ACCC found that grocery retailing is „workably competitive‟, but there are a number of factors that currently limit the level of price competition, most notably:
The limited price competition that Coles and Woolworths face from the independent sector.
Independent supermarkets such as Foodworks and IGA tend to focus on convenience and service; and
The high barrier to entry and expansion for supermarkets, such as the difficulty in finding new sites. The inference is that more sites available for supermarkets within the planning system will facilitate competition and lower prices.
The emergence of Aldi is claimed to have introduced vigorous price competition that has brought about competitive responses from Coles and Woolworths on many products. In particular, the shift in emphasis of all of the larger supermarkets to „home‟ brands is attributable to Aldi‟s entry into the market.
The report found that price competition between supermarkets is strongest on promotions of key value items. However, it is acknowledged that these are commonly used as „loss leaders‟ to encourage consumers to change where they buy their other groceries at regular prices.
The report addresses the relationship between supermarkets and their suppliers:
It identifies that Coles, Woolworths and Metcash have significant buyer power in many packaged grocery products because many suppliers have little other outlet options.
However, much of this is passed onto consumers as cheaper prices rather than being retained as higher profits; and
It dismisses the proposition that retail prices have risen while farm-gate prices have stagnated or declined. It found that farm-gate pricing are set by supply and demand in
3 Report of the ACCC Inquiry into the Competitiveness of Retail Prices for Standard Groceries
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The report does not consider the potential role of small independent grocery shops - such as delicatessens, bread shops, and public produce markets - in supplying food in competition with supermarkets.
The ACCC identifies two particular situations of concern that can create barriers to competition:
Restrictive clauses in supermarket leases in shopping centres; and
Planning and zoning regulations which can limit supply of land for retail development.
Restrictive Clauses in Supermarket Leases
It is commonly perceived that the size and dominance of the two major supermarket chains can influence the development industry unduly. As both often act as anchor tenants for major shopping centres, they can demand a condition in their leases that they are not subjected to competition from other supermarkets.
The ACCC report confirms that such restrictive provisions have been included in leases.
Furthermore, it recognises that these conditions serve little purpose other than to reduce the exposure of the incumbent supermarkets to competition. Such restrictive practices are prohibited under the Trade Practices Act 1974 and the ACCC undertakes to take action to prevent it.
However, the report does acknowledge that a temporary monopoly situation may be acceptable whilst the population builds up in a newly developing area.
Planning and Zoning Regulations
The ACCC is concerned that government regulations, especially land planning and development regulations, reduce the accessibility of land for competing supermarket developments. Controlling the number of places where supermarkets can be developed is an inevitable result of planning.
However, there are interests other that „competition between supermarkets‟ to be considered in the management of urban growth. For example, a responsible authority is likely to consider the effect of an out-of-centre location for a new supermarket (against an in-centre location) on the overall prospects for public transport usage.
The complexities of the planning application system and especially the public consultation and appeals mechanisms are recognised to offer opportunities for incumbent retailers to prevent, or at least delay, competing supermarkets from entering into a local retail system. Undoubtedly this does occur and although vexatious objections are technically illegal it is difficult to prove that an objection is vexatious.
Ultimately, the ACCC recommends that all appropriate levels of government consider zoning and planning laws, and how these can impact on competition between supermarkets in an area. This consideration should ideally apply to all forms of retail, with particular regard given to whether a proposal for retail will facilitate or hinder the entry of a potential supermarket operator.
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5.5
Summary and Conclusions
The „food for home‟ sector is a fundamental part of any retail system, and is often overlooked due to its convenience based nature. There is a public interest in ensuring that goods which are widely demanded and frequently purchased are available locally. This is based on the reasoning that reducing the need for shoppers to travel increased distances from home will reduce the negative environmental impact of shopping. Secondly, access to fresh, healthy and affordable food should form part of any overarching public health and well-being strategy.
The establishment of a vibrant food based retail sector is therefore critical to the future development of Hume. This translates into establishing an appropriate network of community based convenience centres, anchored by at least one supermarket and supporting retailers and service providers.
A recent shift in urban policy has been to focus effort on distributing neighbourhood centres at a finer grain across urban areas and growth areas, in order to facilitate development of more accessible community hubs that focus on people, walking, cycling, connection to place and quality of life.
Delivering this model is challenging and will require an area specific response strategy. The need for more dispersed centres must be balanced with the fact that imposing centre sizes at the lower end of the retail spectrum could have a counter effect if housing densities, demographics and urban form outcomes are not in place to support such centres.
Another clear message in the retail review is that rapid growth in higher order retail systems, including in households goods, can be expected to continue. The amount of land required to accommodate bulky goods businesses has arguably caught the planning system off-guard to some extent, resulting in significant dispersion of such activity across the urban landscape. Greater clarity on planning and development is required for this sector.
And for all retail categories, providing an appropriate forward land supply strategy will be important to enable development and stimulate competition. This includes providing supply in multiple ownerships so that restrictive leases and anti-competitive behaviour is avoided to the extent possible.
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6 Demographic Context
This section identifies and profiles the market for retailing in and around Hume. The existing community is profiled and projections are analysed to identify how the market is expected to change in terms of size and composition in the future. The implications for retail supply are then explored.
6.1
Demographic Context
The following analysis profiles Hume and its three Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). Comparisons are made to the Northern Region of Melbourne (defined as the LGAs of Hume, Whittlesea and Mitchell combined) and the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD) where appropriate.
Population Characteristics
In the last ten years, Hume has experienced higher levels of population growth than its surrounding region and metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, as shown in the following Figure 20.
Hume had a population of about 154,000 in 2006 and experienced an average growth rate of 2.5% per annum in the ten years to 2006. Within Hume, growth levels varied. While the overall population of the Broadmeadows Statistical Local Area (SLA) fell at a rate of -0.9% per annum in that decade, the Craigieburn SLA experienced a high growth rate of 7.2% per annum. This reflects the availability of greenfield land in Craigieburn SLA.
Figure 20: Estimated Resident Population, 1996-2006
1996 2001 2006
Broadmeadows SLA 68,147
Hume LGA
Craigieburn SLA 27,055
Sunbury SLA 25,617
120,819
67,744
39,411
28,831
135,986
64,901
55,670
33,158
153,729
Northern Region Total 252,686 282,510 313,877
Melbourne Statistical Division 3,283,278 3,471,625 3,744,373
Source: VIF 2004, 2008; ABS Census 1996, 2001, 2006
AAGR
96-06
(%)
-0.9%
7.2%
2.8%
2.5%
2.1%
1.5%
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Hume is characterised by a younger age profile of its residents in comparison to the wider Northern
Region and Melbourne Statistical Division. In 2006, Hume had a higher representation of residents aged 0 to 19 than the Northern Region and MSD. There is also a stronger representation of the 35-
44 year old cohort in Hume. This reflects a young family-oriented area, and is also demonstrated in the Northern Region albeit to a lesser extent. With time, it should be expected that the age profile of Hume will resemble the MSD more closely.
Figure 21: Regional Age Structure, 2006
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0-4 5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84
Hume LGA Northern Region Total MSD
Source: ABS Census, 2006
85+
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Within Hume, the age profiles of each SLA vary and generally reflect the era of development in the municipality. While the age structures of Broadmeadows SLA and Sunbury SLA are similar, partly due to their established nature, Craigieburn SLA has a higher representation in younger age cohorts. The Broadmeadows SLA had the highest representation of residents over 55.
Figure 22: Age Structure Within Hume LGA, 2006
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-4 5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84
Broadmeadows SLA Craigieburn SLA Sunbury SLA
Source: ABS Census, 2006
85+
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9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
Figure 23 shows significant growth in the older age cohorts, particularly for those aged 55 to 64, and over 75. Hume has experienced a significant level of growth across all age groups for the period 2001 to 2006 with the Northern Region following a similar trend. In line with population change figures for 2001-06, the Melbourne Statistical Division has achieved growth to a much lesser extent across all age groups.
Figure 23: Regional Age Structure, 2001-2006 AAGR
4
0-4 5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Hume LGA Northern Region Total MSD
Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006
4 AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate
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There has been strong growth within the Craigieburn SLA across all age groups, particularly with people under the age of 19, but also in the older age groups 55 to 85+. The same trend of growth has occurred to a lesser extent in Sunbury SLA. In contrast, the Broadmeadows SLA experienced negative growth in all age cohorts under 54 years, reflecting the SLA‟s overall drop in population from 1996 to 2006.
Figure 24: Age Structure Within Hume, 2001-2006 AAGR
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-4 5-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
-5%
Broadmeadows SLA
Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006
Craigieburn SLA Sunbury SLA
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Household Characteristics
Between 1996 and 2006, the number of households in Hume grew at a similar rate to that of the
Northern Region at around 3% per annum. Similar to historical population growth rates, the
Craigieburn SLA had the highest annual average growth rate of 6.9%. The overall number of households in the Broadmeadows SLA grew marginally, at a rate of 0.4% per annum despite shrinking in population terms over the same time, leading to smaller average household sizes.
Figure 25: Total Households, 1996-2006
1996 2001 2006
Broadmeadows SLA 21,063
Craigieburn SLA 8,078
Sunbury SLA 8,285
Hume LGA 37,425
21,838
11,853
9,556
43,246
22,252
16,512
11,293
50,057
Northern Region Total 78,247 90,208 103,448
Melbourne Statistical Division 1,208,077 1,309,401 1,427,391
Source: VIF 2004, 2008; ABS Census 1996, 2001, 2006
AAGR 01-
06 (%)
0.4%
6.9%
3.4%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
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Household structure within Hume is consistent with that of the wider Northern Region, though
Hume has a slightly higher share of one parent families. Couple families with children are by far the most prevalent household type for Hume and the Northern region, and to a lesser extent this is the case for the MSD. In comparison, the MSD has a higher representation of lone person households. This may be a reflection of greater housing and demographic diversity across the metropolitan area.
Figure 26: Regional Household Structure, 2006
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Couple Family with no Children
Couple Family with
Children
One Parent Family
Hume LGA
Other Family
Northern Region Total MSD
Lone Person
Households
Source: ABS Census, 2006
Group Households
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Within Hume, both Broadmeadows SLA and Sunbury SLA had similar household structures in 2006.
In comparison, the Craigieburn SLA had a far higher (over 50%) proportion of couple family with children households. Similarly, Craigieburn SLA also had the lowest representation of lone person households within Hume.
Figure 27: Household Structure Within Hume, 2006
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Couple Family with no Children
Source: ABS Census, 2006
Couple Family with Children
One Parent Family
Broadmeadows SLA
Other Family
Craigieburn SLA
Lone Person
Households
Group Households
Sunbury SLA
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5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
Between 2001 and 2006, annual average growth rates across all household types were positive in
Hume and across metropolitan Melbourne. Hume experienced higher growth rates across all household types in comparison to the other study areas, with high growth rates in the lone and group household sectors specifically.
Figure 28: Regional Household Structure AAGR 2001-2006
6%
0%
Couple Family with no Children
Couple Family with
Children
One Parent Family
Hume (C) Northern Region Total
Other Family Lone person households
Melbourne statistical Division
Group households
Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006
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14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Within Hume, Craigieburn SLA experienced the highest average annual growth rate across all household types from 2001 to 2006, particularly in the other and one parent family categories. The
Sunbury SLA also experienced positive growth rates across all types, however the Broadmeadows
SLA experienced negative growth in the number of couple families with children.
Figure 29: Household Structure Within Hume AAGR 2001-2006
16%
0%
-2%
Couple Family with Couple Family with no Children Children
One Parent Family Other Family
-4%
Hume (C) - Broadmeadows Hume (C) - Craigieburn
Lone person households
Hume (C) - Sunbury
Group households
Source: ABS Census 2001, 2006
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16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Income Profile
Overall, a similar household income structure can be observed for both Hume and the Northern
Region with the majority of households earning a „lower middle income‟; that is, in the range of
$500 to $1,400 per week. When compared to the MSD, both Hume and the Northern Region have much higher proportions of low to middle income earning households with the MSD containing a greater proportion of high income earners ($1,700+). The most prevalent household income bracket for all regions is the middle income bracket of $1,000-$1,199.
Figure 30: Regional Weekly Household Income, 2006
Source: ABS Census, 2006
MSD Northern Region Total Hume LGA
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As demonstrated by Figure 31, there is significant variance in household income within Hume.
Broadmeadows SLA contains a large proportion of low to lower-middle income earners, whereas the Sunbury SLA has a relatively high share of high income earning households. The income profile for Craigieburn SLA is in between the other two SLAs but closer to the Sunbury SLA profile.
Figure 31: Weekly Household Income Within Hume, 2006
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Source: ABS Census, 2006
Broadmeadows SLA Craigieburn SLA Sunbury SLA
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6.2
Demographic Projections
Between 2009 and 2016, the population of Hume is expected to grow at a high rate of around
5.7% per annum. Looking towards 2026 however, the growth is expected to taper off to 2.3% per annum. This reflects the anticipated take up of available land in Hume. Comparatively, the
Northern Region is expected to grow a more rapid rate over both time periods. Ultimately, it is envisaged that Hume will accommodate over 250,000 residents by 2026, which would represent about 46% of the Northern Region‟s total population and about 5% of the metropolitan area‟s population.
Figure 32: Estimated Resident Population Projections
2009 2011 2016 2026 2009 to
2016 (%)
5.7%
2009 to
2026 (%)
2.3% Hume LGA 169,798 181,219 203,653 251,103
Northern Region Total 352,086 380,477 442,157 547,857 6.5% 2.6%
Melbourne Statistical Division 3,947,730 4,082,871 4,396,918 5,000,048
Source: VIF, 2008
3.4% 1.4%
Household projections for Hume, Whittlesea and the MSD are shown in Figure 33. Data for Mitchell
Shire was not available at the time of report preparation and therefore the Northern Region has not been included for comparison. Whittlesea is anticipated to experience the greatest rate of household growth from 2009-2026, with a growth rate of 8.4% per annum for 2009-2016, and
3.4% per annum for 2009-2026. The number of households in Hume is also expected to grow significantly at a rate of 6.5% per annum for 2009-2016, and 2.6% per annum for 2009-2026 overall.
Figure 33: Total Household Projections, 2009-2026
2009 2011 2016 2026 2009 to
2016 (%)
2009 to
2026 (%)
Hume LGA
Whittlesea LGA
55,925
49,078
60,120
54,219
68,688
66,604
86,828
86,447
6.5%
8.4%
2.6%
3.4%
Melbourne Statistical Division 1,515,705 1,576,452 1,721,566 2,000,637
Source: VIF 2008
4.0% 1.6%
It should be noted that the above population and household projections are indicative and subject to change. They provide a guide only to anticipated future trends at this point in time and should be interpreted with caution. The revised Urban Growth Boundary proposals for the northern region can be expected to change the situation to some extent.
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6.3
Summary and Conclusions
A number of demographic trends and projections have potential implications for retail demand in
Hume. This section identifies the key aspects of the demographic context which must be considered in formulating a retail strategy. While a number of similarities are shared between
Hume and the surrounding region, the demographic profiles of Hume‟s SLAs (Broadmeadows,
Craigieburn and Sunbury) are diverse. The major contextual themes are as follows.
A growing younger and family oriented demographic in Craigieburn SLA. As it encapsulates
Hume‟s growth area, the SLA of Craigieburn is home to a number of young families. The area experienced the highest rate of population growth over the last Census decade, and is expected to absorb much of the expected future growth in Hume. Future retail provision in this area is likely to benefit from growing population catchments and a moderate household income profile.
An older and declining demographic in Broadmeadows SLA. Between 1996 and 2006, the
SLA of Broadmeadows experienced a fall in total population, and simultaneous growth in older age cohorts. A declining population of those under 45 years old may reflect a number of social and economic factors, and can impact on retail catchments and performance.
Disproportionately spread wealth throughout Hume. The income profiles of SLAs within
Hume differ considerably, with Sunbury the wealthiest (in terms of weekly household income), and Broadmeadows the least well off. This is likely to be reflected in spending behaviour and provision of retail in the respective locations.
Hume does not differ greatly from the rest of Northern Melbourne. Many of the demographic observations made in Hume are evident across much of northern Melbourne.
Neighbouring Whittlesea is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate than Hume and support additional retail development potential.
The Hume demographic profile has been assessed against national and State retail expenditure patterns and this indicates that per capita, Hume residents spend about -1.3% less than the national average and about -1.6% less than the Victorian average on retail items (2008 estimate).
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7 Retail Performance
This section provides an analysis of the current retail performance of Hume and identifies retail development potential to 2031. The analysis considers retail demand generated by residents in northern Melbourne and surrounds, the destination of shoppers, the origin of local retail turnover, analysis of the competitive environment and net turnover patterns and future floorspace demand potential by commodity group.
Note that the 2031 analysis does not necessarily represent the full retail development environment in Hume, but rather provides a point in time estimate of how the system could evolve over time.
The ultimate supportable retail development capacity of Hume is provided in the next section of this report.
7.1
Existing Retail Spending
By using population projections, income variation by percentile group and real growth in retail expenditure, it is possible to calculate the amount of expenditure available within a given location.
Population projections are based on Victoria in Future 5 estimates by SLA and modified to capture growth to 2031. The data takes into account variables such as urban policy, natural growth and migration and are distributed to Travel Zones based on residential land availability.
The retail expenditure estimates for 2007, 2011, 2021 and 2031 are shown in Figures 34 to 37 below. This analysis suggests Hume residents generate $1.5 billion in retail sales across the retail system (2007 estimate) and this spending level could increase to potentially $3.7 billion by 2031.
5 This is used instead of Hume City Council (id consulting) data because metropolitan wide consistent data is required for this analysis.
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Figure 34: Retail Expenditure Generated by Hume Residents 2007
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
Hume LGA
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
$182 m
$42 m
$47 m
$40 m
$92 m
$77 m
$66 m
$545 m
$193 m
$48 m
$49 m
$47 m
$101 m
$89 m
$78 m
$605 m
$119 m
$31 m
$31 m
$30 m
$63 m
$56 m
$50 m
$380 m
$494 m
$121 m
$127 m
$116 m
$256 m
$222 m
$194 m
$1,529 m
Source: SGS Estimates
Figure 35: Projected Retail Expenditure Generated by Hume Residents 2011
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
Hume LGA
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
$190 m
$44 m
$53 m
$48 m
$108 m
$84 m
$69 m
$596 m
$239 m
$59 m
$66 m
$66 m
$140 m
$114 m
$98 m
$782 m
$141 m
$36 m
$39 m
$41 m
$84 m
$69 m
$60 m
$470 m
$570 m
$139 m
$158 m
$155 m
$332 m
$267 m
$227 m
$1,848 m
Source: SGS Estimates
Figure 36: Projected Retail Expenditure Generated by Hume Residents 2021
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
Source: SGS Estimates
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$237 m
$42 m
$58 m
$43 m
$124 m
$113 m
$77 m
$694 m
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
$405 m
$77 m
$98 m
$83 m
$221 m
$210 m
$149 m
$1,243 m
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$209 m
$41 m
$51 m
$44 m
$115 m
$111 m
$80 m
$651 m
Hume LGA
$851 m
$160 m
$207 m
$170 m
$460 m
$434 m
$306 m
$2,588 m
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Figure 37: Projected Retail Expenditure Generated by Hume Residents 2031
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
Source: SGS Estimates
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$285 m
$44 m
$68 m
$51 m
$147 m
$140 m
$90 m
$825 m
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
$584 m
$97 m
$139 m
$117 m
$315 m
$314 m
$210 m
$1,776 m
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$358 m
$61 m
$86 m
$75 m
$196 m
$199 m
$135 m
$1,110 m
Hume LGA
$1,227 m
$202 m
$293 m
$243 m
$658 m
$653 m
$435 m
$3,711 m
7.2
Retail Turnover Capture in Hume
Retail employment for each Journey to Work Destination Transport Zone in Victoria was calculated using ABS Census Journey to Work Data. The number of retail jobs was then used to estimate the total turnover for each Transport Zone in metropolitan Melbourne. Floorspace and turnover data from sources such as the Property Council of Australia was used to check and refine the retail model. Approximate market shares for each Transport Zones were then calculated. Figure 38 below summarises turnover estimates for SLAs within Hume and for Hume overall.
Figure 38: Retail Turnover Capture in Hume 2007
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
Hume LGA
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
$281 m
$76 m
$37 m
$39 m
$91 m
$73 m
$73 m
$670 m
$117 m
$1 m
$21 m
$14 m
$22 m
$86 m
$96 m
$357 m
$138 m
$26 m
$21 m
$12 m
$30 m
$41 m
$38 m
$306 m
$536 m
$103 m
$79 m
$65 m
$143 m
$200 m
$207 m
$1,333 m
Source: SGS Estimates
The following Figure 39 shows retail turnover capture within Hume. As shown, Broadmeadows
(SLA) captures about half of the City‟s total retail activity. Note that retail turnover does not equate to retail expenditure, as there is a proportion of retail trade leaving the region (escape expenditure) as well as a significant amount of retail turnover coming from customers that live outside Hume (turnover capture).
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Figure 39: Retail Turnover Capture by Area within Hume 2007
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
23%
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
50%
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
27%
By 2031, it is anticipated that Broadmeadows SLA‟s share of Hume‟s retail capture will decline, with shares in Sunbury SLA and Craigieburn SLA growing (see Figure 40 below).
Figure 40: Retail Turnover Capture by Area within Hume 2031
Hume (C) -
Sunbury,
26%
Hume (C) -
Broadmeado ws, 45%
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn,
29%
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7.3
Retail Expenditure Destination for Hume
Residents
Figure 41 shows the destination for retail expenditure generated from Hume residents by SLA. As shown, residents from Broadmeadows SLA and Sunbury SLA mainly shop in Hume (52% and 54% of spending respectively). Local spending is less prevalent for Craigieburn residents (36%). This is likely to relate to the existing limited retail supply in the immediate area meaning that residents are likely to travel some distance to access retail services, especially higher order retail services.
Most of the retail travel is likely to be undertaken by car and as such car travel combined with relatively long distances contributes to a more diffused retail spending pattern.
Figure 41: Major Expenditure Destinations for Hume Residents 2007
Shopping Location
Hume (C)
Moonee Valley (C)
Melbourne (C)
Brimbank (C)
Moreland (C)
Whittlesea (C)
Maribyrnong (C)
Other
TOTAL
Source: SGS Estimates
Origin of Resident
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
52%
8%
8%
3%
2%
2%
2%
22%
100%
36%
4%
11%
3%
2%
5%
3%
36%
100%
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
54%
3%
8%
4%
1%
1%
3%
26%
100%
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7.4
Retail Catchments
The following Figure 42 shows the major turnover sources for retailers that are based in Hume by
SLA. This shows the catchment area for all SLA retailers as a collective. As shown, most Hume retailers source their income from Hume residents (especially in Sunbury) and to a lesser extent from Moreland and Whittlesea.
Figure 42: Major Retail Turnover Sources for Retailers within Hume 2007
Shopper Origin
Retail Destination
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
Hume (C)
Moreland (C)
Whittlesea (C)
Moonee Valley (C)
Brimbank (C)
Darebin (C)
Banyule (C)
Melton (S)
Other
TOTAL
48%
10%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
17%
100%
50%
5%
6%
5%
7%
3%
2%
3%
20%
100%
69%
2%
2%
2%
6%
1%
1%
7%
10%
99%
Source: SGS Estimates
The retail catchments for selected major centres in Hume are shown below. The catchment maps are provided for Broadmeadows (Figure 43), Sunbury (Figure 44), Roxburgh Park (Figure 45),
Gladstone Park (Figure 46) and Campbellfield Plaza (Figure 47).
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 77
Figure 43: Broadmeadows’ Catchment 2007
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 78
Figure 44: Sunbury’s Catchment 2007
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 79
Figure 45: Roxburgh Park’s Catchment 2007
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 80
Figure 46: Gladstone Park’s Catchment 2007
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 81
Figure 47: Campbellfield Plaza’s Catchment 2007
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 82
Hume City Retail Strategy
7.5
Net Retail Capture and Escape
The current pattern of net retail capture and escape for Hume by SLA and commodity group is shown in Figure 48 below. This is based on retail flows into and out of Hume and shows a net deficit position of -$196.4 million or -12.8% (2007 data). Overall, this is a reasonable escape level given Hume‟s metropolitan fringe area position.
By SLA, the analysis is as follows:
Broadmeadows SLA captures more retail spending than it generates, resulting in a net capture of $125m or +23.0%.
Sunbury has an escape spending level at -$74.0m or -19.5%.
Craigieburn has significant escape spending at -$247.5 m or -40.9%. This is to be expected at the current time given its growth area status. This high level of escape spending should decline over time as new retail space is added to the area.
Figure 48: Net Escape Expenditure by Commodity Group 2007
Commodity Group
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
Total
Source: SGS Estimates
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$99.14 m
$33.95 m
-$9.61 m
-$0.67 m
-$0.78 m
-$4.20 m
$7.24 m
$125.07 m
54.5%
80.7%
-20.6%
-1.7%
-0.8%
-5.4%
11.0%
23.0%
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
-$75.67 m
-$46.88 m
-$28.38 m
-$32.82 m
-$78.80 m
-$2.82 m
$17.86 m
-$247.51 m
-39.3%
-97.9%
-57.5%
-70.1%
-78.2%
-3.2%
22.9%
-40.9%
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$19.00 m
-$5.00 m
-$10.00 m
-$18.00 m
-$33.00 m
-$15.00 m
-$12.00 m
-$74.00 m
16.0%
-16.1%
-32.3%
-60.0%
-52.4%
-26.8%
-24.0%
-19.5%
Hume LGA
$42.46 m
-$17.93 m
-$48.00 m
-$51.48 m
-$112.58 m
-$22.01 m
$13.10 m
-$196.44 m
8.6%
-14.8%
-37.8%
-44.2%
-44.0%
-9.9%
6.8%
-12.8%
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 83
Hume City Retail Strategy
7.6
Floorspace Demand Scenarios to 2031
In order to estimate the demand for retail floorspace in Hume over time, the following process is used:
First, expenditure (by commodity group) by areas is estimated based on population projections and expected expenditure patterns;
Second, market share and retail turnover capture estimates are made for retail centres and areas; and
Third, the retail turnover is converted into floorspace using a retail turnover density figure by commodity group.
Figure 49 below provides a turnover forecast that grows the metropolitan population but retains market share assumptions across the retail system. This can be interpreted as a business as usual retail turnover scenario for Hume.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 84
Hume City Retail Strategy
2011
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2011 Total
2021
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2021 Total
2031
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2031 Total
Source: SGS Estimates
Figure 49: ‘Business As Usual’ Scenario Turnover Forecasts 2011, 2021 and
2031
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$305 m
$82 m
$43 m
$49 m
$113 m
$83 m
$79 m
$754 m
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$423 m
$89 m
$52 m
$49 m
$148 m
$123 m
$98 m
$982 m
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
$538 m
$99 m
$65 m
$62 m
$188 m
$163 m
$121 m
$1,236 m
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
$138 m
$1 m
$25 m
$18 m
$27 m
$102 m
$108 m
$419 m
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
$214 m
$1 m
$33 m
$20 m
$36 m
$163 m
$142 m
$609 m
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
$289 m
$1 m
$42 m
$26 m
$46 m
$221 m
$183 m
$808 m
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$160 m
$30 m
$26 m
$15 m
$39 m
$50 m
$45 m
$365 m
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$235 m
$33 m
$33 m
$16 m
$52 m
$79 m
$58 m
$506 m
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
$342 m
$41 m
$47 m
$22 m
$73 m
$117 m
$81 m
$723 m
Hume LGA
$603 m
$113 m
$94 m
$82 m
$179 m
$235 m
$232 m
$1,538 m
Hume LGA
$872 m
$123 m
$118 m
$85 m
$236 m
$365 m
$298 m
$2,097 m
Hume LGA
$1,169 m
$141 m
$154 m
$110 m
$307 m
$501 m
$385 m
$2,767 m
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 85
Hume City Retail Strategy
Figure 50: Retail Turnover Densities Applied in the Analysis, 2007
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
RTD
9,250
3,000
7,000
3,500
3,500
4,700
3,500
Source: SGS Estimates
The above RTDs convert the „business as usual‟ retail development scenario into the following floorspace figures.
Note that this represents one possible scenario and can be changed by planning and development policy and the broader demand and supply context.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 86
Hume City Retail Strategy
2011
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2011 Total
2021
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2021 Total
2031
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2031 Total
Source: SGS Estimates
Figure 51: ‘Business As Usual’ Scenario Floorspace Need in 2011, 2021 and
2031
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
32,973
27,333
6,143
14,000
32,286
17,660
22,571
152,966
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
45,730
29,667
7,429
14,000
42,286
26,170
28,000
193,281
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
58,162
33,000
9,286
17,714
53,714
34,681
34,571
241,129
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
14,919
333
3,571
5,143
7,714
21,702
30,857
84,240
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
23,135
333
4,714
5,714
10,286
34,681
40,571
119,435
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
31,243
333
6,000
7,429
13,143
47,021
52,286
157,455
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
17,297
10,000
3,714
4,286
11,143
10,638
12,857
69,936
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
25,405
11,000
4,714
4,571
14,857
16,809
16,571
93,928
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
36,973
13,667
6,714
6,286
20,857
24,894
23,143
132,533
Hume LGA
65,189
37,667
13,429
23,429
51,143
50,000
66,286
307,142
Hume LGA
94,270
41,000
16,857
24,286
67,429
77,660
85,143
406,644
Hume LGA
126,378
47,000
22,000
31,429
87,714
106,596
110,000
531,117
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 87
Hume City Retail Strategy
The floorspace change figures from a 2011 base to 2021 and 2031 are shown in Figure 52 below, based on the one scenario used for this purpose of this section of the report. Under a business as usual scenario, the analysis suggests a total change figure of around 224,000 sqm in the period between 2011 and 2031.
The next section of the report will provide a full capacity assessment of potentially supportable retail space.
Figure 52: ‘Business As Usual’ Scenario Floorspace Change 2011 to 2021 and
2011 to 2031
2011-2021
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2011-2021 Change
2011-2031
Supermarkets
Department Stores
Other Food
Clothing and Soft Goods
Household Goods
Other Retail
Hospitality and Services
2011-2031 Change
Source: SGS Estimates
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
12,757
2,333
1,286
0
10,000
8,511
5,429
40,315
Hume (C) -
Broadmeadows
25,189
5,667
3,143
3,714
21,429
17,021
12,000
88,163
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
8,216
0
1,143
571
2,571
12,979
9,714
35,195
Hume (C) -
Craigieburn
16,324
0
2,429
2,286
5,429
25,319
21,429
73,215
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
8,108
1,000
1,000
286
3,714
6,170
3,714
23,993
Hume (C) -
Sunbury
19,676
3,667
3,000
2,000
9,714
14,255
10,286
62,598
Hume LGA
29,081
3,333
3,429
857
16,286
27,660
18,857
99,503
Hume LGA
61,189
9,333
8,571
8,000
36,571
56,596
43,714
223,975
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 88
Hume City Retail Strategy
7.7
Summary and Conclusions
This analysis suggests Hume residents generate $1.5 billion in retail sales across the retail system
(2007 estimate) and this spending level is expected to increase to about $2.6 billion in 2021 and potentially 3.7 billion by 2031.
Residents from Broadmeadows SLA and Sunbury SLA mainly shop in Hume (52% and 54% of spending respectively). Local spending is less prevalent for Craigieburn SLA residents (36%). This is likely to relate to the existing limited retail supply in the immediate area meaning that residents are likely to travel some distance to access retail services, especially higher order retail services.
Most of the retail travel is likely to be undertaken by car and as such car travel combined with relatively long distances contributes to a more diffused retail spending pattern.
Most Hume retailers source their income from Hume residents (especially in Sunbury) and to a lesser extent from Moreland and Whittlesea. Other significant locations are Moonee Valley,
Brimbank, Darebin, Banyule and Melton.
The current pattern of net retail capture and escape for Hume by SLA and commodity group shows a net deficit position of -$196.4 million or -12.8% (2007 data). Overall, this is a reasonable escape level given Hume‟s metropolitan fringe area position. By SLA, the analysis is as follows:
Broadmeadows SLA captures more retail spending than it generates, resulting in a net capture of $125m or +23.0%.
Sunbury SLA has an escape spending level at -$74.0m or -19.5%.
Craigieburn SLA has significant escape spending at -$247.5 m or -40.9%. This is to be expected at the current time given its growth area status. This high level of escape spending should decline over time as new retail space is added to the area.
Using a „business as usual‟ retail development scenario, Hume could potentially accommodate retail floorspace figures as follows:
About 307,000 sqm in 2011;
About 407,000 sqm in 2021; and
About 532,000 sqm in 2031.
Note that this represents one possible scenario and can be changed by planning and development policy and the broader demand and supply context.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 89
8 Full Development Retail Capacity
Hume City Retail Strategy
8.1
Method
The method to establish a retail development framework for Hume is to determine the ultimate size and structure of the region in question and extrapolate from it the ultimate supportable retail floorspace level from a demand side perspective.
The ultimate size and structure of the region for the purposes of this analysis is defined as the
Urban Growth Boundary as at June 2009 plus the additional urban release areas identified by the
State Government in June 2009. This area is shown in Figure 53 below. The selected urban region is all of Hume in addition to the Mitchell urban growth area and part of the Whittlesea growth area near Donnybrook. The Diggers Rest area near Sunbury is also included. These non-Hume areas form a connected urban region for the purpose of retail system planning.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 90
Figure 53: The Urban Region of Investigation
Hume City Retail Strategy
The next step in the full development capacity analysis is to distribute the supportable retail space to areas within the region based on the nature of the urban area including the distribution of communities, employment areas, transport networks and existing and approved retail and activity centre networks.
There are options when distributing retail space and as such options are presented and assessed in this section of the report. Options relate to retail centre sizes and distribution, land take and other elements of detail. Once a preferred retail development framework is identified, details of staging and implementation can be considered.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 91
Hume City Retail Strategy
8.2
Urban Land, Population and Jobs
An assessment has been made of development cells in the urban region of investigation. There are generally two broad sub-regions in the study area that operate to some extent as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity. These are the Hume growth corridor and surrounds
(which includes elements of Whittlesea and Mitchell growth areas), called Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea
Sub-Region, and Sunbury Sub-Region (which includes Bulla in Hume and Diggers Rest in Melton).
For the purposes of analysis, Melbourne Airport is split between the two Sub-Regions.
The development cells that have been selected for the purposes of full capacity retail planning are shown below in Figure 54 and Figure 55. Figure 55 shows the development cells along with major transport connections and barriers.
The development cells are based primarily on data boundaries that have been used for small area population and employment forecasting by SGS. The data boundaries have been modified to form cells based on planning boundaries and natural catchments in the growth areas where possible.
The population and jobs expected to be yielded from these areas at full development is presented in Figure 56. Further details and assumptions used to derive these estimates are provided in
Appendix 4.
It should be noted that „full development‟ represents a very high estimate of potential future conditions. This level of development may not be achieved for thirty years or perhaps much longer. The purpose of this high end estimate is to set a retail planning framework on a possible end state so as to base current retail decision making within a long term strategic framework and to avoid potentially compromising long term outcomes on short term trends and development patterns.
It should also be noted that numerous assumptions are built into the data, based on information available at the time of report preparation. It is possible and likely that conditions will change in the future as more detailed planning is undertaken and land use and transport directions are resolved for the growth areas. On this basis, the underlying assumptions may change and this will affect the subsequent retail plan as presented in this report. It will be necessary to monitor and modify the base data and review and refine the retail planning recommendations of this report over time.
A major assumption of this report relates to the possible position of the Urban Growth Boundary, which is based on the State Planning Department recommended but not adopted expansion to the
Urban Growth Boundary as at mid 2009. Aspects of this report will require modification should the adopted boundary differ to the boundary used in this report.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 92
Figure 54: Development Cells
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 93
Figure 55: Development Cells With Major Transport Linkages
Hume City Retail Strategy
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 94
Hume City Retail Strategy
Figure 56: Development Cells Data
Development
Cell
Population
55
56
57
58
59
52
53
54
49
50
51
46
47
48
63
64
65
60
61
62
66
TOTAL
41
42
43
44
45
38
39
40
35
36
37
30
31
32
33
34
27
28
29
24
25
26
21
22
23
16
17
18
19
20
13
14
15
10
11
12
7
8
5
6
9
1
2
3
4
7,400
500
380
1,200
4,910
3,890
4,570
5,130
1,780
780
2,130
4,310
520
150
520
180
120
1,130
580
270
520
149,880
5,170
4,530
5,620
20
4,040
2,060
7,680
4,610
50
30
10,300
15,510
100
2,200
1,080
5,450
190
3,450
40
6,790
300
1,340
6,740
7,340
160
10
0
830
11,970
60
110
20
20
40
170
420
50
30
30
30
10
0
0
260
40
Source: Derived by SGS (see Appendix 4 for more information)
2006 DATA
Total Jobs
White Collar
Jobs
Blue Collar
Jobs
3,670
11,050
70
1,940
370
1,120
280
300
90
320
280
250
200
30
180
150
90
30
30
120
230
48,050
2,620
450
620
2,720
990
1,230
1,150
850
90
40
560
520
350
190
7,260
2,940
160
60
1,400
560
720
40
60
140
10
230
10
40
210
910
20
40
10
20
0
0
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
10
0
80
150
60
270
90
170
90
40
1,820
6,380
70
510
100
400
30
20
30
60
70
60
70
31,770
1,960
130
140
320
260
140
370
520
20
10
280
270
140
70
8,860
3,420
60
120
2,160
790
210
10
20
80
10
90
0
20
120
500
20
30
10
10
10
0
0
0
10
10
0
0
0
0
0
Population
5,480
17,430
140
2,450
470
1,520
360
450
140
580
370
420
290
70
240
220
140
60
40
150
300
79,810
4,580
580
760
3,040
1,240
1,370
1,520
1,370
110
60
830
790
490
260
16,120
6,360
80
220
20
320
20
60
330
1,410
220
180
3,560
1,350
940
40
30
70
30
30
10
10
0
0
30
20
0
0
0
10
0
15,350
7,360
13,590
5,890
3,360
2,870
5,640
513,360
12,730
900
380
2,350
9,560
9,940
7,550
13,750
5,830
3,380
3,770
10,200
25,040
12,510
8,360
5,960
10,310
4,370
7,260
4,990
10,930
7,390
1,120
6,740
21,050
20,550
700
3,090
3,320
8,840
31,620
10,590
40
15,450
820
19,670
11,640
10,670
410
20
0
1,060
23,590
4,450
30,240
15,150
7,150
4,790
5,330
250
3,350
2,800
330
4,430
1,170
5,560
1,400
4,030
420
10
1,500
760
2,730
1,590
2,920
210
120
560
1,620
1,620
1,420
1,880
610
260
3,470
20
10
10
2,940
4,520
30
720
460
1,670
1,650
1,470
1,860
270
740
1,480
160
50
180
60
40
410
220
80
150
49,080
10
50
110
60
1,100
10
2,220
100
400
1,910
2,370
60
0
0
40
10
10
20
10
10
10
0
Occupied
Private
Dwellings
0
0
90
10
1,550
2,580
1,770
3,880
2,630
4,530
320
120
840
3,350
3,530
2,580
4,890
2,070
360
7,520
1,390
400
2,400
7,480
6,560
220
1,090
1,180
2,980
2,960
2,120
3,660
1,200
1,340
3,630
8,900
4,450
5,460
2,620
4,830
2,100
1,200
1,020
2,010
179,520
500
1,300
110
11,240
3,770
10
5,490
290
6,990
3,560
3,790
140
10
0
1,890
90
1,190
990
120
1,570
420
1,980
FULL DEVELOPMENT
Occupied
Private
Dwellings
Total Jobs
White Collar
Jobs
10,750
5,390
2,540
1,700
36,560
18,310
17,840
14,000
18,280
9,160
8,920
7,000
15,580
23,180
5,880
40
0
40
10
10
7,790
11,590
2,940
20
0
30
0
0
26,270
43,150
30
120
370
25,280
530
2,550
90
570
2,020
350
350
4,720
13,130
21,580
2,840
90
220
12,640
350
1,270
60
350
1,280
240
120
1,950
940
590
650
620
120
380
360
270
110
80
230
450
353,210
7,980
2,090
2,460
2,270
2,090
9,030
28,820
140
4,570
910
3,190
570
730
270
2,070
1,500
130
150
90
1,350
1,250
720
460
20,120
8,630
6,940
860
1,200
490
390
340
430
30
250
210
150
50
40
170
340
195,010
7,300
1,650
2,220
1,680
1,280
6,130
18,040
70
3,540
710
2,230
430
450
150
810
1,070
50
130
60
840
800
490
330
9,860
4,160
4,170
660
950
Blue Collar
Jobs
130
150
120
60
40
60
110
163,870
2,900
10,780
70
1,030
200
960
150
280
110
450
200
310
190
90
2,770
210
260
670
440
240
590
810
30
30
510
460
220
130
10,260
4,460
40
160
12,640
170
1,270
30
220
740
110
230
2,760
1,260
420
80
18,280
9,160
8,920
7,000
7,790
11,590
2,940
10
0
20
0
10
13,130
21,580
2,840
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8.3
Supportable Retail Floorspace
8.3.1
Per Person Supportable Retail Floorspace
Retail spending per person and shop turnover per capita varies across regions and changes over time. Analysis undertaken for this report has found that Hume residents generally have a marginally lower than Australian average retail spend at the current time. However, for long term capacity assessment, long term average figures are appropriate to use because Hume‟s retail spending rates are likely to converge to national averages over the longer term. Furthermore, it is preferable to set forward planning frameworks on the high side of a reasonable range so as to minimise the risk of under-planning.
Long term estimates of supportable retail floorspace per person are shown in Figure 57 below.
This shows the data on a commodity group basis and uses a high scenario, which is used to approximate to possible conditions circa 2031.
Figure 57: Per Person Supportable Retail Space: High Scenario for Long Term
Planning
Supermarkets
Other Food
Department Stores
Clothing
Household goods
Other retail
Hospitality and services
Total
PER PERSON
SPACE SQM
0.30
0.17
0.32
0.29
0.59
0.34
0.42
2.43
This scenario suggests that each person will support about 2.4 sqm of retail space across the entire retail system over the long term. It should be noted that this is a high side scenario which minimises the risk of under-planning.
The current national per person supportable space ratio is around 2.1 sqm per person, and this has been tracking up over time.
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The major groups that affect retail planning are:
Department stores, which includes full line and discount department stores;
Supermarkets, which includes supermarkets and grocery stores; and
Household goods, which is a proxy for bulky goods retailing.
The above groups are retail anchors and as such significantly shape the nature of a retail network and hierarchy. This is particularly important for supermarkets. The other commodity groups shown in Figure 57 generally (but not always) comprise smaller shops that agglomerate near the retail anchors. Hospitality and services refers to cafes, restaurants and related services.
8.3.2
Supportable Retail Floorspace
A „ground up‟ supportable retail analysis is shown below for a full development scenario for the two urban sub-regions. This does not consider retail expenditure flows between areas apart from potential capture of worker related retail demand. As such, this provides a baseline underlying demand assessment for retail space at full development.
Figure 58 below shows the total floorspace that could be generated from the two sub-regions at full development. Note that this does not necessarily mean all of this space will be captured in areas shown, but rather provides a guideline of space that may be supported across the wider retail economy in the very long term. Retail turnover can change significantly based on retail flows between locations such as, for example, if a centre is located on a major or arterial road which enables passing trade to be captured in addition to locally generated demand. Passing trade is highly variable but can change shop or centre turnover significantly.
The analysis suggests that the Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region:
May be able to support approximately 863,000 sqm of retail space across the retail system based on a population of approximately 355,000; and
May be able to capture around 776,000 sqm of retail space (assuming a net capture rate of
90%, which is a reasonable capture rate for a mature metropolitan sub-region).
The analysis suggests that the Sunbury Sub-Region:
May be able to support approximately 387,000 sqm of retail space across the retail system based on a population of approximately 159,000; and
May be able to capture around 348,000 sqm of retail space (assuming a net capture rate of
90%).
Figure 58 considers demand from the resident population only. Employment area demand is considered later in this section of the report.
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Figure 58: Potential ‘Full Development’ Retail Floorspace Generation and
Capture by Sub-Region
HUME-MITCHELL-WHITTLESEA SUB-REGION
Population Generated Floorspace
Population
Supermarkets
Other Food
Department Stores
Clothing
Household goods
Other retail
Hospitality and services
Total Supportable Across Retail System
355,040
Per Person
Space
Total
Floorspace
Typical Shop
Size
(Indicative)
Number of
Shops
(Indicative)
0.30
0.17
0.32
0.29
0.59
0.34
0.42
2.43
106,512
60,357
113,613
102,962
209,474
120,714
149,117
862,747
3500
120
10000
200
2000
120
120
30
503
11
515
105
1,006
1,243
3,413
Sub-Region Capture 90% 776,472
SUNBURY SUB-REGION
Population Generated Floorspace
Population
Supermarkets
Other Food
Department Stores
Clothing
Household goods
Other retail
Hospitality and services
Total Supportable Across Retail System
Sub-Region Capture
159,220
Per Person
Space
0.30
0.17
0.32
0.29
0.59
0.34
0.42
2.43
Total
Floorspace
Typical Shop
Size
(Indicative)
47,766
27,067
50,950
46,174
93,940
54,135
66,872
386,905
3500
120
10000
200
2000
120
120
Number of
Shops
(Indicative)
14
226
5
231
47
451
557
1,531
90% 348,214
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8.4
Core Retail Hierarchy Options
The distribution of retail space is defined by the retail hierarchy and in particular the distribution of regional, sub-regional and supermarket based centres (all of which contain multiple retail categories). This is the core retail hierarchy and bulky goods (or household goods) can be attached to this network or distributed separately from the core retail network.
The major variable with respect to a core retail hierarchy is at the supermarket centre end of the spectrum. Regional and sub-regional centres require large population catchments and evolve from smaller versions to larger versions over time as the catchment population grows. The initial distribution of the higher order centres is reasonably predictable and stable based on the size of catchments that is required to sustain high order centres.
8.4.1
Regional and Sub -Regional Cen tres
For the purpose of this analysis, average centre sizes of 70,000 sqm for regional centres and
25,000 sqm for sub-regional centres is used. This framework will provide a reasonable distribution of healthy higher order centres.
This does not mean that centres in this level of the hierarchy would be limited to this size, or required to achieve this size; rather, this guideline sets a generalised distribution of centres in a spatial framework. In practice, the centres could be bigger or smaller.
Another option is to plan a distribution of higher-order centres of larger size, but this is not recommended because it will mean fewer, bigger centres, that are separated by larger distances meaning that people are required to travel longer distances to access retail and related services.
8.4.2
Superm arket Centres
Two possible long term retail hierarchy scenarios are described below for regional, sub-regional and supermarket based centres. The scenarios focus on options at the supermarket end of the spectrum.
The first scenario is based on a network that has average centre sizes as follows:
Regional centres of 70,000 sqm;
Sub-regional centres of 25,000 sqm; and
Large supermarket based centres of 10,000 sqm (comprising two or more supermarkets).
The figures refer to retail floorspace.
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Based on assumptions regarding retail capture and turnover, this generalised network would require approximately:
115,000 people per regional centre;
45,000 people per sub-regional centre; and
22,000 people per large supermarket based centre.
On that basis around 115,000 people would support one regional centre, two to three sub-regional centres and about five large supermarket based centres.
An alternative scenario is one where a larger number of single supermarket based centres are provided. Under this scenario, the average centre sizes are the same except for supermarket centres which have an average size of 5,000 sqm retail. Under this scenario the generalised network would require approximately:
115,000 people per regional centre;
45,000 people per sub-regional centre; and
11,000 people per single supermarket based centre.
On that basis around 115,000 people would support one regional centre, two to three sub-regional centres and about ten small supermarket based centres.
The potential advantage of the latter scenario is increased capacity of people to access supermarket centres across the urban area, including walking and cycling access. The disadvantage is that choice in the smaller centres would be lower than would be provided in the larger supermarket centre format.
Other distribution scenarios are possible.
Given the density of suburban communities, generally being around 10 to 12 dwellings per hectare with an aspiration of 15 dwellings per hectare, and the dominance of cars as the primary travel mode, the default position with respect to retail centre development and hierarchies is generally the large supermarket centre model, or fewer, bigger centres.
In order to achieve a finer grain distribution of centres, comprising a larger number of smaller centres, it is likely that retail planning policy and controls are required to cap floorspace limits within areas so as to facilitate those outcomes.
The ultimate distribution of retail space and centres will depend on the nature of natural catchments, road networks, housing densities and related demand and supply side and catchment issues.
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8.5
Bulky Goods Options
Bulky goods retailing also presents Hume City Council with management options.
The general options for management of bulky goods range from focusing activity in designated activity centres only to allowing distribution across the business and industrial landscape as determined by businesses.
The current approach in Hume has been mixed between the two approaches. Significant bulky goods activity has clustered in and around Broadmeadows, Roxburgh Park and Sunbury. In addition to the centre based approach, Hume has experienced some dispersion of this activity in industrial areas, particularly along Hume Highway between Western Ring Road and Somerton Road and to some extent near Gladstone Park, on the west side of Mickleham Road straddling the
Tullamarine Freeway.
In addition to exiting trends with bulky goods retail, an option exists to establish specialised bulky goods retail centres, such as the Nunawading homemaker precinct. This option has merit because:
Bulky goods shopping is an infrequent and generally high cost shopping activity, and as such consumers are generally prepared to travel longer distances for such items;
A significant concentration of bulky goods retailers in the one specialised centre can provide consumers from a wider regional catchment the opportunity to visit one location for comparison shopping;
Clustering bulky goods in a specialised centre provides the opportunity to provide integrated road and public transport services and shared car parking solutions; and
Land in core activity centres is released for higher density and higher value land uses if large scale and low density bulky goods is located in specialised centres. The land take of bulky goods can be extensive and job density low, and as such the activity is often not perfectly suited for a mixed use centre that focuses on high density urban forms including food and convenience retailing, personal and business services, high density housing and public transport activation.
On this basis, Hume could develop a hierarchy for bulky goods retailing that addresses different typologies of bulky goods retailing in different ways, as follows:
Large-scale and low density bulky goods - A number of regional-scale specialised bulky goods centres are established to service regional catchments, similar to the function of the
Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne;
Lower-scale and / or high density bulky goods - This form of bulky goods can be accommodated in designated activity centres in addition to the above, but only where the activity is integrated in higher density formats; and
The general dispersal of bulky goods in other locations is prohibited unless it can be proven that there is insufficient capacity in the bulky goods hierarchy.
The following Figure 59 shows the long term floorspace and land take need for the bulky goods sector, using „household goods‟ as an indicator for that sector. The floorspace figures are an extract of the figures shown in Figure 58 above.
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Note that this is indicative and considers only the study area sub-regions and thus excludes potential demand from other parts of Melbourne and the State. Furthermore, the analysis assumes a 90% capture of sub-regional demand.
The analysis (based on these assumptions) suggests that:
The Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region may ultimately support about 189,000 sqm of bulky goods (household goods) retail space, which could translate into a land take of 54 hectares; and
The Sunbury Sub-Region may ultimately support about 85,000 sqm of bulky goods retail space, which could translate into a land take of 24 hectares.
Note that the land take assumptions are based on current conventional building formats which relate to single level buildings that occupy 35% of a site. This is a reasonable figure to use for this purpose because it provides an estimate at the high end of a possible range and as such provides a guide to the potential delivery challenge in the long term. It may be possible and desirable to deliver higher average density buildings in this sector but this should not be assumed in an indicative capacity analysis.
Figure 59: Indicative Bulky Goods Retail Needs
HUME-MITCHELL-WHITTLESEA SUB-REGION
Population Generated Floorspace
Population 355,040
Household Goods Per Person Space
Sub-Region Capture
0.59
90%
Total
Floorspace
Typical Shop
Size
(Indicative)
209,474
188,526
2000
Number of
Shops
(Indicative)
105
Land Needs
Land Need at Site Coverage Ratio 35%
Square Metres
538,646
Hectares
54
SUNBURY SUB-REGION
Population Generated Floorspace
Population
Household Goods Per Person Space
Sub-Region Capture
Land Needs
Land Need at Site Coverage Ratio
159,220
0.59
90%
Total
Floorspace
Typical Shop
Size
(Indicative)
93,940
84,546
2000
Number of
Shops
(Indicative)
47
35%
Square Metres
241,559
Hectares
24
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In terms of distributing this potential demand over the long term, an apportionment policy will need to be considered for in-centre space versus specialised bulky goods centre space. A further apportionment policy is required for the number of specialised bulky goods centres that could reasonably be provided in the study area sub-regions.
The broader Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne may be around 40 hectares in area, depending on how it is defined. This cluster provides a critical mass of operators and as such draws from a wide catchment.
8.6
Other ‘Shop’ and Activity Centre Space
An allowance for other retail and non-retail floorspace is required to be made for each centre in the retail and activity centre hierarchy. It is recommended that this „factoring up‟ process is undertaken using the anchor retailers (as noted above) and the basis for each centre.
8.7
Trade Supplies and Motor Vehicle Retailing and
Services
Trade supplies and motor vehicle retailing and services are able to locate within most business and industrial zones. This activity should be interpreted as being in addition to bulky goods and the other retail forms defined above.
The general dispersal of trade supplies and motor vehicle retailing and services across the business and industrial landscape appears appropriate and should continue to be supported.
8.8
Employment Area Retail Options
Another dimension to the residential population market is retail demand generated by workers in employment areas (ie. industrial and business parks).
Convenience retailing should be provided to all employment areas so as to provide workers with access to a reasonable level of local food, personal and business services.
The major options and issues regarding employment areas are whether bulky goods should be accommodated in them (which is addressed in the previous sub-section of this report) and whether supermarket anchored neighbourhood activity centres should be provided within them.
Provision of supermarkets in employment areas results in a direct transfer of retail spending out of supermarkets located elsewhere in the retail system. It is preferable to base most supermarket
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Hume City Retail Strategy activity in residential catchments because of the anchor role played by supermarkets in sustaining activity centres as community focal points. Nevertheless, it is sensible to provide some supermarket activity as a basis for activity centres in employment areas, especially where higher job densities and white collar workers are desired.
This will enable employment areas to offer a higher quality working environment and thus provide firms with a better chance of attracting workers and in particular highly skilled workers. This then provides the employment areas with a better chance of attracting firms to the areas, especially high end manufacturing and business services firms. Activity centres are an important quality of life infrastructure asset for employment areas.
The following Figure 60 provides an indicative assessment of retail spending per worker. Such figures are highly variable based on the type of worker and employment area setting.
This indicative analysis suggests that about 300 sqm of retail floorspace (or 380 sqm including related business space) is required for every 1,000 workers in an employment precinct – as a general guide. This figure can vary depending on the type of employment area and its job density and type of workers – and desired purpose of the activity centre in the area.
Figure 60: Baseline Retail Spending and Capture in Generic Employment
Precincts
Employment Precinct Workers 1,000
Assumed
Long Term
Per Capita
Per Annum
Spend
Total
Expenditure
Apportionment
Assumption to
Employment
Precinct
Assumed
Local
Expenditure
Capture
Assumed
Long Term
Average
RTDs($ / sqm
/ pa)
Supportable
Floorspace
(sqm)
Retail
Total Retail
Selected Services
Assume 25% of Retail sqm
$12,000 $12,000,000 12.5% $1,500,000 $5,000 300
25.0% 75
Total sqm 375
Total sqm (Rounded) Per 1,000 Workers 380
On this basis, approximately 300 sqm of retail per 1,000 workers can be used as a default starting point for assessment of retail proposals in employment area settings. The total floorspace guide is
380 sqm per 1,000 workers when non-retail business and service space is included.
These figures are variable based on local conditions and case specific matters.
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8.9
A Retail Network Plan for the Region
The potential distribution of retail centres in the area is guided by a basic retail hierarchy model, based on the assumptions shown in this section of the report. The „default‟ retail plan is shown spatially in Figures 61 and 62 below.
The Sunbury Sub-Region is treated as one regional catchment for the purposes of retail planning given its relatively consolidated urban form.
The Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region has been broken into three parts or catchments for the purposes of deriving a future retail centre network.
The Proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Road forms a natural catchment boundary for the purposes of regional retail centre planning.
The broader Craigieburn area between Greenvale Reservoir to the Proposed Outer Metropolitan
Ring Road is deemed to form a regional retail catchment based on the location of natural barriers and existing centres. This area has significant proposed employment land along the Hume
Highway corridor.
The southern part of the municipality has an established retail network which is defined by
Broadmeadows as the primary centre in addition to three sub-regional centres and numerous supermarket based neighbourhood centres.
Melbourne Airport is a relatively isolated employment based precinct and can be treated separately from the other areas for the purposes of retail planning.
The above framework provides a guide to retail centre development possibilities based on the assumptions shown and the expected population levels in the catchments. Note that all of the following figures are approximate, and are to be confirmed for each area as more detailed planning is undertaken.
North of Proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Road - Cells 1-3
Numerical Guide:
Full Development Population: 52,540
Total Retail Expenditure (at $12,000 Per Person): $630,480,000
Trigger for Regional Centres as Identified in this Report : No
Trigger for Sub-Regional Centre as Identified in this Report: Yes
Number of Sub-Regional Centres as Identified in this Report: 1 centre at 29,099 sqm
Number of Supermarket Centres: 4.73 (at 5,000 sqm total retail with single supermarket) or 2.36 (at 10,000 sqm total retail with double supermarket)
Jobs in employment areas: 72,710
Potential Number of Employment Based Centres Assuming 10,000 Workers per Centre:
7.27
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The thresholds shown above suggest that this catchment can support one sub-regional centre of around 30,000 sqm, in addition to 2 to 5 supermarket based centres, and potentially around 7 employment based centres.
It may be possible to provide one sub-regional centre at Beveridge. This centre could be located near to but not on Hume Highway so as to be located in the central part of the catchment whilst also having the potential to avoid the amenity and traffic conflicts presented by Hume Highway.
Five potential supermarket centre locations are shown indicatively, as detailed planning for the area is yet to be undertaken.
North of Greenvale Reservoir to Proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Road - Cells 4-25
Numerical Guide:
Full Development Population: 134,790
Total Retail Expenditure (at $12,000 Per Person): $1,617,480,000
Trigger for Regional Centres as Identified in this Report : Yes
Number of Regional Centres: 1 at 80,874 sqm plus potential additional capture from North of Proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Road of 31,524 sqm
Trigger for Sub-Regional Centre as Identified in this Report: Yes
Number of Sub-Regional Centres as Identified in this Report: 3 centres at 24,884 sqm
Number of Supermarket Centres: 12.13 (at 5,000 sqm total retail with single supermarket) or 6.07 (at 10,000 sqm total retail with double supermarket)
Jobs in employment areas: 160,420
Potential Number of Employment Based Centres Assuming 10,000 Workers per Centre:
16.04
The distribution of centres in this catchment is complex. Whilst the numerical guide suggests one regional centre along with three sub-regional centres and numerous supermarket based centres are possible, the actual spatial distribution is difficult to achieve because of detached and dispersed residential catchments that are provided by existing and proposed drainage and open space networks and significant future employment land north of Mount Ridley Road.
This means that most of the residential population in this catchment is concentrated in the southern part of the catchment around the future Craigieburn Town Centre. This suggests that bigger centres may be able to be provided in that part of the catchment with potentially fewer, smaller centres in the area around the Donnybrook Road spine.
The numerical guide and spatial information suggests that the Craigieburn Town Centre can perform a regional retail function in the future, achieving 80,000 sqm and potentially over 100,000 sqm at full corridor development. Regional retail spending from the catchment north of the
Proposed Outer Metropolitan Ring Road would be captured by this centre to some extent.
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The potential locations for sub-regional centres could be at:
The junction of Donnybrook Road and Aitken Boulevard. This location provides good access for the wider area. However, it should be noted that the cells in the vicinity of this possible sub-regional location do not generate a sufficient population to justify a subregional centre based on information available at this point in time.
Donnybrook has potential to be established as a rail based sub-regional centre serving the area east of Hume Highway. However, like the above proposed centre, the cells in the vicinity of this location do not generate a sufficient population to justify a sub-regional centre based on information available at this point in time.
Craigieburn, an existing supermarket based node, has potential to evolve into a larger subregional centre over time.
Based on spatial conditions, nine potential residential based supermarket based centres are identified in the retail plan.
The supermarket centre locations are shown indicatively in the northern part of the catchment as detailed planning for the area is yet to be undertaken.
There appears to be potential to deliver a relatively dense network of supermarket based centres in the southern part of the catchment to service full development conditions.
South of Greenvale Reservoir - Cells 26-46
Numerical Guide:
Full Development Population: 181,630
Total Retail Expenditure (at $12,000 Per Person): $2,179,560,000
Trigger for Regional Centres as Identified in this Report : Yes
Number of Regional Centres: 1 at 108,978 sqm
Trigger for Sub-Regional Centre as Identified in this Report: Yes
Number of Sub-Regional Centres as Identified in this Report: 4 centres at 25,000 sqm or 3 centres at 33,532 sqm
Number of Supermarket Centres: 16.35 (at 5,000 sqm total retail with single supermarket) or 8.17 (at 10,000 sqm total retail with double supermarket)
Jobs in employment areas: 76,110
Potential Number of Employment Based Centres Assuming 10,000 Workers per Centre:
7.61
This area has an existing small regional / large sub-regional centre in Broadmeadows. This centre is suited to perform the large regional role that could be delivered when the population reaches the required level.
This area has three existing sub-regional centres at Roxburgh Park, Campbellfield and Gladstone
Park. These centres appear to have potential to grow and evolve over time as the catchment population grows.
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The area has eight existing supermarket or local shop nodes which are generally well distributed and therefore appear to have capacity to grow in the future subject to the catchment population growing in the long term.
Melbourne Airport - Cell 47
Numerical Guide:
Jobs in employment areas: 28,820
Potential Number of Employment Based Centres Assuming 10,000 Workers per Centre:
2.88
In the long term this area could support two or three employment area based retail centres.
Sunbury - Cells 48-66
Numerical Guide:
Full Development Population: 159,220
Total Retail Expenditure (at $12,000 Per Person): $1,910,640,000
Trigger for Regional Centres as Identified in this Report : Yes
Number of Regional Centres: 1 centre at 95,532 sqm
Trigger for Sub-Regional Centre as Identified in this Report: Yes
Number of Sub-Regional Centres as Identified in this Report: 3 centres at 29,394 sqm
Number of Supermarket Centres: 14.33 (at 5,000 sqm total retail with single supermarket) or 7.16 (at 10,000 sqm total retail with double supermarket)
Jobs in employment areas: 29,590
Potential Number of Employment Based Centres Assuming 10,000 Workers per Centre:
2.96
The distribution of theoretical centres in this catchment is influenced by the relatively compact nature of the area, which is arranged around the town centre. The town centre is the logical candidate for the regional centre function.
The configuration of the town appears suited to two sub-regional centres, one in the north-east and one in the south-east. These areas have relatively large growth cells and therefore have potential to support sub-regional facilities. A third sub-regional centre location is not apparent and as such this means that sub-regional expenditure would be directed to the regional and two subregionals as identified. These centres would be marginally bigger than under a three sub-regional model.
Eight additional supermarket centre locations are identified in addition to the existing Gap Road
Centre. The locations are based on catchment characteristics and expected future population yields.
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Specialised Bulky Goods Precincts
Numerical Guide:
The Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region may ultimately support about 189,000 sqm of bulky goods (household goods) retail space, which could translate into a land take of 54 hectares.
The Sunbury Sub-Region may ultimately support about 85,000 sqm of bulky goods retail space, which could translate into a land take of 24 hectares.
These figures are included in the retail centre figures shown above, and can be accommodated incentre and / or in specialised bulky goods precincts.
This strategy provides for lower-scale and / or high density bulky goods to be accommodated in designated centres where the activity is integrated in higher density formats.
In addition to this, this strategy provides for a number of regional-scale specialised bulky goods centres to be provided to service regional catchments, similar to the function of the Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne.
Two locations have been identified as being well positioned to perform regional-scale specialised bulky goods centre roles:
The Hume Highway / Mahoneys Road precinct; and
The Vineyard Road Precinct in Sunbury.
A third potential location is at Melbourne Airport. This location has been identified by a developer for a homemaker precinct, which has been approved by the manager of Commonwealth land. This strategy acknowledges that this proposal may proceed and be established as a major bulky goods precinct.
The Hume Highway / Mahoneys Road precinct is recommended for bulky goods because:
It has high quality regional road and rail linkages (potential future rail station), and is located at a regional transport junction. The area is well positioned to service a wide regional catchment.
The area has an existing retail / activity centre including some bulky goods activities.
The area is ripe for redevelopment as it includes some poor amenity and redundant industrial uses, which provides Hume with a poor quality urban design gateway.
Redevelopment of the area would take advantage of the gateway and transport junction position and perform an „urban repair‟ function, subject to appropriate design standards being achieved. The new investment can be used to deliver a new and high quality gateway for the municipality.
The Vineyard Road Precinct in Sunbury has existing bulky goods and could be established as an edge of centre bulky goods node. The site is located between the town centre and the Calder
Freeway, and thus has potential to access a regional catchment as well as the township catchment.
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Figure 61: Default Retail Network Plan – Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-
Region
Note: This Plan is indicative. The ultimate distribution of retail space and centres may change based on various demand and supply side issues. Detailed planning is required to confirm the future retail planning framework.
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Figure 62: Default Retail Network Plan – Sunbury Sub-Region
Note: This Plan is indicative. The ultimate distribution of retail space and centres may change based on various demand and supply side issues. Detailed planning is required to confirm the future retail planning framework.
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8.10
Summary and Conclusions
Capacity Analysis
The method to establish a retail development framework for Hume is to determine the ultimate size and structure of the region in question and extrapolate from it the ultimate supportable retail floorspace level from a demand side perspective, and apportion the demand to centres. This is a regional assessment approach and is consistent with the recommendations of the State
Government‟s Retail Policy Review discussion paper.
There are generally two broad sub-regions in the study area that operate to some extent as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity. These are the Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-
Region and Sunbury Sub-Region.
The Hume-Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region (based on a population of approximately 355,000) may be able to capture around 776,000 sqm of retail space at full development. The corresponding figure for the Sunbury Sub-Region (based on a population of approximately 159,000) is around
348,000 sqm of retail space.
It should be noted that „full development‟ represents a very high estimate of potential future conditions. This level of development may not be achieved for thirty years or perhaps much longer. The purpose of this high end estimate is to set a retail planning framework on a possible end state so as to base current retail decision making within a long term strategic framework and to avoid potentially compromising long term outcomes on short term trends and development patterns.
Hierarchy of Centres
The distribution of retail space is defined by the retail hierarchy and in particular the distribution of regional, sub-regional and supermarket based centres (all of which contain multiple retail categories). This is the core retail hierarchy and bulky goods (or household goods) can be attached to this network or distributed separately from the core retail network.
Retail hierarchy planning benchmarks adopted for this strategy are as follows.
Average centre sizes of 70,000 sqm for regional centres and 25,000 sqm for sub-regional centres are used. This framework provides a reasonable distribution of healthy higher order centres. This does not mean that these centres would be limited to this size, or required to achieve this size; rather, this guideline sets a generalised distribution of centres in a spatial framework.
A preference should be made towards provision of a larger number of single supermarket based centres, which would have an average size of around 5,000 sqm retail. A catchment of approximately 11,000 people is required to support such a centre.
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An alternative model is based on fewer, bigger supermarket centres (comprising two or more supermarkets). On average, these would have approximately 10,000 sqm of retail space and require a catchment of about 22,000 people.
The potential advantage of the smaller supermarket centre scenario is increased capacity of people to access supermarket centres across the urban area, including walking and cycling access. The disadvantage is that choice in the smaller centres would be lower than would be provided in the larger centre format.
Bulky Goods
Bulky goods retailing can be focused in designated activity centres or can be clustered into specialised bulky goods precincts, because of their regional catchment nature and infrequent comparison shopping characteristics. Hume could develop a hierarchy for bulky goods retailing that addresses different typologies of bulky goods retailing in different ways, as follows:
Large-scale and low density bulky goods - A number of regional-scale specialised bulky goods centres are established to service regional catchments, similar to the function of the
Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne;
Lower-scale and / or high density bulky goods - This form of bulky goods can be accommodated in designated activity centres in addition to the above, but only where the activity is integrated in higher density formats; and
The general dispersal of bulky goods in other locations is prohibited unless it can be proven that there is insufficient capacity in the bulky goods hierarchy.
Other Considerations
An allowance for other retail and non-retail floorspace is required to be made for each centre in the retail and activity centre hierarchy.
The general dispersal of trade supplies and motor vehicle retailing and services across the business and industrial landscape appears appropriate and should continue to be supported.
Employment Area Options
Convenience retailing should be provided to all employment areas so as to provide workers with access to a reasonable level of local food, personal and business services.
Provision of supermarkets in employment areas results in a direct transfer of retail spending out of supermarkets located elsewhere in the retail system. It is preferable to base most supermarket activity in residential catchments because of the anchor role played by supermarkets in sustaining activity centres as community focal points.
Nevertheless, it is sensible to provide some supermarket activity as a basis for activity centres in employment areas, especially where higher job densities and white collar workers are desired.
This will enable employment areas to offer a higher quality working environment and thus provide firms with a better chance of attracting workers and in particular highly skilled workers.
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The analysis suggests that approximately 300 sqm of retail per 1,000 workers can be used as a default starting point for assessment of retail proposals in employment area settings. The total floorspace guide is 380 sqm per 1,000 workers when non-retail business and service space is included. These figures are variable based on local conditions and case specific matters.
A Retail Network Plan for the Region
The potential distribution of retail centres in the area is guided by the assumptions shown in this report. This provides a „default‟ retail plan as shown spatially in Figures 61 and 62 above.
The default plan is designed to provide a forward guide to the type and distribution of retail centres
Hume expects to develop over the very long term. The default plan intends to lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding „in principle‟ acceptable retail development proposals, subject to more detailed evaluation.
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9 Hume Retail Strategy
9.1
Priority Challenges
The summary and conclusions section of the preceding sections of this report document the main issues and challenges facing Hume‟s retail sector. From the range of issues identified, it is concluded that the priority challenge for Hume City Council will be to:
1.
Deliver a vibrant network of „food for home‟ supermarket-based convenience centres within the expanding growth areas. In addition to being the primary commodity group for household retail spending, supermarkets perform an anchor function for neighbourhood centres and are therefore a vital element in the retail and activity centre system.
Further challenges are as follows.
2.
Establish an appropriate high-order hierarchy of regional, sub-regional and bulky goods centres to meet the needs of existing and growing communities.
3.
Further develop and improve the existing network of retail / activity centres in terms of service offer, functionality and accessibility.
4.
Establish high quality public transport, walking and cycling access to new centres and existing centres (in addition to car access). Currently, there are few public transport plans for the proposed new growth areas.
9.2
Hume City Retail Vision
The recommended vision for Hume‟s retail system is as follows.
Hume will be recognised as having a diverse and dense network or retail / activity centres, characterised by a large number of supermarket anchored mixed use centres that serve community needs.
Hume will have a healthy and vibrant mix of sub-regional and regional centres that offer a wide range of retail goods and services.
Hume will distribute bulky goods activity within a hierarchy, with retailers located in centres and in a selected number of specialised regional bulky goods nodes.
All of Hume’s centres will be distinguished by having high quality urban design and pedestrian and cycling facilities, connected to public transport services.
Hume will offer diverse business spaces, catering for the needs of small independent businesses through to major retail chains.
Hume’s overall retail performance will be no less than 90% net capture, striving for a positive capture rate in relation to local retail spending.
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9.3
Retail Policy Directions
The recommended retail policy directions are as follows.
Retail / Activity Centres and Land Use Mix
1.
Develop as a priority a dense network of convenience based retail / activity centres in the municipality‟s growth areas. This network should, where possible, reduce the need for shoppers to travel long distances from home to access food in particular. The establishment of a vibrant, diverse and food based retail sector is critical to the future development of Hume. This refers to community based convenience centres, anchored by at least one supermarket and supporting other retailers and service providers.
2.
Seek to integrate housing in all residential based retail / activity centres where possible, including supermarket based neighbourhood centres.
3.
Locate retail / activity centres on sites that have existing or potential future access to public transport services in addition to quality road access for private vehicles. Radial transport and movement networks into centres should be provided wherever possible.
4.
Provide dedicated walking and cycling facilities into centres and into their catchment areas.
This will facilitate development of more accessible community hubs that focus on people, walking, cycling, connection to place and quality of life.
Retail Hierarchy and Major Centres
5.
Support the existing retail hierarchy, with the major existing centres being Broadmeadows,
Roxburgh Park, the future Craigieburn Town Centre and Sunbury Town Centre.
6.
Provide new regional and sub-regional centres to support new growth areas where there is sufficient catchment to support new centres.
7.
Utilise retail activity and especially retail anchors as the basic „building block‟ and economic driver of activity centres in growth area settings, unless there is another superior local land use or economic driver that can be harnessed to perform the activity centre driver role.
Supermarket Centres
8.
Supermarket-based neighbourhood centres should be distributed across the municipality to perform the role of primary food convenience centres for communities.
9.
A preference should be made towards provision of a larger number of single supermarket based centres, which would have an average size of around 5,000 sqm retail. A catchment of approximately 11,000 people is required to support such a centre. A greater distribution
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10.
Smaller supermarket based centres should be located to meet the needs of defined communities, and as such major arterial road locations should be avoided where possible.
Frontage to an internal collector or distributor road is desirable.
11.
Where the above is not possible, an alternative model is based on fewer, bigger supermarket centres (comprising two or more supermarkets). Larger supermarket based centres should be located on or near major arterial roads that penetrate required catchments and provide public transport services, so as to facilitate economic viability and better access.
Bulky Goods
12.
A hierarchy for bulky goods retailing should be established in the region.
13.
A number of regional-scale specialised bulky goods centres should be considered to service regional catchments, similar to the function of the Nunawading homemaker cluster in eastern Melbourne. These would be provided for large-scale and low density bulky goods.
14.
Smaller-scale and / or higher density bulky goods should be encouraged to locate in designated activity centres in preference to the specialised precincts, where the activity is integrated in higher density urban formats.
15.
The general dispersal of bulky goods in other locations should be prohibited unless it can be proven that there is insufficient capacity in the bulky goods hierarchy to accommodate them.
Employment Areas
16.
Convenience retailing should be provided to all employment areas so as to provide workers with access to a reasonable level of local food, personal and business services.
17.
Provision of supermarkets in employment areas should be enabled where the provision does not adversely affect residential based centres and where higher job densities and white collar workers are desired. A starting guideline of 300 sqm retail per 1,000 workers should be used in assessments.
Trade Supplies and Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services
18.
The general dispersal of trade supplies and motor vehicle retailing and services across the business and industrial landscape should continue to be supported.
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Retail (Business 1 Zone) Land Supply
19.
Provide an appropriate forward land supply for retail and activity centre development to meet the needs of communities and to stimulate competition.
20.
Where possible (but not necessarily including single supermarket based centres), provide business zoned land in multiple land ownerships so as to avoid monopoly retail conditions in catchments. Monopoly holdings can encourage restrictive lease practices and anticompetitive land withholding behaviour. It is considered that approximately three separate land owners will be able to deliver competition for larger centres whilst avoiding an overlycomplicated planning and development system.
21.
Utilise structure plans and legal agreements and / or development contribution plans to coordinate planning and development where centres are developed in multiple ownerships.
9.4
Retail Management
9.4.1
Retail Managem ent Directions
The recommended retail management directions are as follows.
1.
Manage retail development in the municipality using two broad sub-regions that operate
(to some extent) as separate corridors for the purposes of retail activity: the Hume-
Mitchell-Whittlesea Sub-Region and the Sunbury Sub-Region.
2.
Utilise a simplified retail hierarchy classification system in reporting systems as follows: regional, sub-regional, neighbourhood and local centres and regional bulky goods centres (see within this report for definitions). In addition to this, define each retail centre in activity centre terminology according to Melbourne 2030 .
3.
Utilise the Hume Retail Centre Development Plan (shown in the next section of this report) to guide the delivery of retail centres in the municipality. This Plan will lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding „in-principle‟ acceptable retail development proposals.
4.
Utilise the Retail Development Decision Criteria (shown in the next section of this report) to guide retail decision making. The Decision Criteria seek to focus retail decision making on the most important urban structure and design issues.
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9.4.2
Hum e Retail Centre Development Plan
The Hume Retail Centre Development Plan is designed to provide a forward guide to the type and distribution of retail centres Hume expects to develop over the very long term. This Plan intends to lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding „in principle‟ acceptable retail development proposals, subject to more detailed evaluation.
The Plan sets a default hierarchy and distribution of centres based on this Retail Strategy. The main elements of the Plan are centre locations by type as follows:
Figure 63 presents guidance on the possible structure of each centre in the hierarchy. This provides a default profile for each centre:
The spatial elements of the Plan are shown in Figure 64.
It should be noted that the Plan is indicative. The ultimate distribution of retail space and centres may change based on details regarding zoning conditions, natural catchments, road and public transport networks, housing densities and related demand and supply side issues.
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Figure 63: Hume Retail Centre Development Plan – Default Centre Profiles
Type
Location
Road Position
Retail Anchor
Population Catchment
Floorspace
Land Needs (Assuming 40% Site Coverage)
Land Ownership Preference
Design Considerations
Type
Location
Road Position
Retail Anchor
Population Catchment
Floorspace
Land Needs (Assuming 40% Site Coverage)
Land Ownership Preference
Design Considerations
Type
Location
Road Position
Single Supermarket Neighbourhood
Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume
Retail Centre Development Plan
Distributor or Collector
One Supermarket
Approximately 11,000
Approximately 5,000 sqm (Including
Anchor and Other Retail) + Other
Commercial
Approximately 12,500 sqm Retail +
Other
Single or Multiple Ownership
Bus stop within centre
Destination of pedestrian and cycleways
Pedestrian dominant environment
Shared parking between uses
Form a public square or park
Active frontages / avoid blank walls
Orient all entrances to the street
Multiple Supermarket
Neighbourhood Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume
Retail Centre Development Plan
Distributor or Collector or Arterial
Two Supermarkets
Approximately 22,000
Approximately 10,000 sqm (Including
Anchor and Other Retail) + Other
Commercial
Approximately 25,000 sqm Retail +
Other
Multiple Ownership
Bus stop within centre
Destination of pedestrian and cycleways
Pedestrian dominant environment
Shared parking between uses
Form a public square or park
Active frontages / avoid blank walls
Orient all entrances to the street
Sub-Regional Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume Retail Centre Development Plan
Arterial
Discount Department Store(s) + Supermarket(s)
Approximately 45,000
Approximately 25,000 sqm + Other Commercial
Approximately 62,500 sqm Retail + Other
Multiple Ownership
Bus stop within centre
Destination of pedestrian and cycleways
Pedestrian dominant environment
Shared parking between uses
Form a public square or park
Insist on active frontages and avoid blank walls
Orient all entrances to the street
Retail Anchor
Population Catchment
Floorspace
Land Needs (Assuming 40% Site Coverage)
Land Ownership Preference
Design Considerations
Regional Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume Retail Centre Development Plan
Arterial
Department Store and / or Multiple Discount Department Store(s) +
Supermarket(s)
Approximately 115,000
Approximately 70,000 sqm + Other Commercial
Approximately 175,000 sqm Retail + Other
Multiple Ownership
Bus stop within centre
Destination of pedestrian and cycleways
Pedestrian dominant environment
Shared parking between uses
Form a public square or park
Insist on active frontages and avoid blank walls
Orient all entrances to the street
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Type
Location
Details
Type
Location
Road Position
Retail Anchor
Population Catchment
Floorspace
Land Needs (Assuming 35% Site Coverage)
Land Ownership Preference
Design Considerations
Type
Location
Road Position
Retail Anchor
Employment Area Catchment
Floorspace
Land Needs (Assuming 40% Site Coverage)
Land Ownership Preference
Design Considerations
Specialised Bulky Goods Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume Retail Centre Development Plan
Arterial
Bulky Goods / Household Goods / Restricted Retail
Approximately 100,000 (but can vary widely)
Approximately 60,000 sqm (but can vary widely)
Approximately 170,000 sqm (but can vary widely)
Multiple Ownership
Bus stop within centre
High quality pedestrian linkages between properties
Shared parking between uses
Insist on active frontages to the main street and avoid blank walls
Common infrastructure treatment
Visually integrate buildings
Align with neighbouring frontages
Utilise compatible materials
Employment Precinct Centre
Refer to possible locations on Hume Retail Centre Development Plan
Arterial
Convenience Store to One Supermarket (Maximum)
Approximately 300 sqm Retail / 1,000 Workers
Variable, Up To Maximum of 3,000 sqm Retail per Centre and 3,800 sqm Total
Variable, Up To Maximum of 9,500 sqm
Single Ownership
Bus stop within centre
Destination of pedestrian and cycleways
Pedestrian dominant environment
Shared parking between uses
Form a public square or park
Insist on active frontages and avoid blank walls
Orient all entrances to the street
Other Related Uses: Convenience Stores, Trade Supplies, Motor Vehicle
Retailing and Services
Dispersed in accordance with existing Victorian Planning Provisions
Site and business specific
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Figure 64: Hume Retail Centre Development Plan – Default Spatial Distribution of Centres
Note: This Plan is indicative. The ultimate distribution of retail space and centres may change based on various demand and supply side issues. Detailed planning is required to confirm the future retail planning framework.
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9.4.3
Retail Development Decision Criteria
The recommended decision criteria for assessing retail / activity centre development proposals are as follows.
1.
Consistency with the Hume City Retail Vision and Policy Directions and Hume Retail Centre
Development Plan in terms of indicative location, indicative size, anchor tenant and broader tenant and land use mix profile. Method: evaluated by Council.
2.
Retail capacity of the catchment to support the proposed retail space without comprising the ability of other existing or planned centres in the Hume Retail Centre Development Plan to operate viably. Refer to section 9.4.4 for further guidance. Method: evaluated by
Council based on the proponent‟s retail economic capacity and impact assessment. The assessment should be peer reviewed. The peer review should be paid for by the proponent but commissioned and managed by Council.
3.
Capacity of the centre / site to provide a suitable mix of non retail uses including housing, offices and community services and facilities. This is not applicable to regional bulky goods clusters. Method: evaluated by Council.
4.
Capacity of the centre to be serviced by public transport including bus services in addition to quality road access for private vehicles. Method: evaluated by Council based on transport plans submitted by proponent.
5.
Provision of dedicated off-road walking and cycling facilities into centres and into their catchment areas. This is not applicable to regional bulky goods clusters and may not be applicable to established areas. Method: evaluated by Council based on plans submitted by proponent.
6.
Capacity of the centre to be provided in multiple (approximately three separate) land ownerships. This is desirable but not mandatory. Method: evaluated by Council.
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9.4.4
General Guidance for Retail Capacity and Impact
Assessment
Three primary questions should be considered when assessing the retail economic implications of a retail centre / development proposal as follows. A retail development within a centre can be interpreted as being part of a centre and an expansion of it.
Q1. What is the primary catchment of the proposed retail centre / development and does this appear reasonable given the location of existing and planned future retail centre / development provision?
This is generally defined as the mid-point (in travel time terms) between the subject and the nearest competing centres (in all directions) within the same level of the retail hierarchy.
Q2. Does the primary catchment have sufficient population (residents / workers) to support the retail centre / development?
This can be generally guided by the catchment thresholds shown in this report, that is, at full development (in round terms): o Supermarket centre 5,000 sqm ~ 11,000 people o Supermarket centre 10,000 sqm ~ 22,000 people o Sub-Regional centre 25,000 sqm ~ 45,000 people o Regional centre 70,000 sqm ~ 115,000 people o Bulky goods precinct ~ 0.6 sqm per person o Employment precinct ~ 300 sqm ~ 1,000 workers
The above thresholds refer to primary catchments only. Some centres, especially larger ones, will have secondary and perhaps tertiary catchments that overlap with the catchments of other centres.
Note that it is not necessary for catchments to reach full development before approving a retail centre / development. It is possible and often desirable to provide retail space in advance of full catchment development to enable early provision of services.
For larger centres, it is appropriate to enable staged development generally in accordance with the thresholds and early provision objectives.
An early provision policy can be based on impact analysis – see point below. If the early provision does not have a significant adverse impact on existing centres, a centre / development may be appropriate.
Q3. Will the retail centre / development result in the closure of other existing retail centres / developments or preclude the future development of desired future retail centres / developments?
This is generally defined by impact analysis, whereby existing retail turnover levels per centre are estimated and the provision of proposed retail space is included in the retail system. An estimate of the likely redistribution of turnover is then made. Where impacts of over -15% are observed, the proposed centre could be deemed to place such impacted centres at risk. This is however case specific.
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9.5
Further Actions
Realisation of the vision will be achieved by implementation of the following actions.
Action 1: Adopt the Hume Retail Strategy – incorporating Vision, Policy Directions and
Management Directions (as noted above) - in relevant corporate policy and planning frameworks. Implement the Retail Strategy in the Planning Scheme, utilising appropriate zoning and other frameworks.
Action 2: Develop an Activity Centres Strategy using this Retail Strategy as the base. The
Activity Centres Strategy should consider broader land use mix, transport and accessibility issues. For existing centres, the Activity Centres Strategy should address issues identified in the centre profiles in Appendix 2 of this report.
Action 3: Develop an urban design framework template for the delivery of new retail and activity centres in Hume. This template should provide a forward guide to the anticipated structure and design of selected retail / activity centres so as to lead and guide the retail market and provide retail businesses and land developers with greater direction and certainty regarding acceptable design solutions.
Action 4: Explore options to appoint place managers to co-ordinate the delivery of projects and development within activity centres. Hume City Council could access assistance via the State‟s Creating Better Places Program to assist with place manager funding, strategic planning and delivery of capital works.
Action 5: Establish a register of major retail operators and investors and develop a communications system to promote information sharing and a shared retail and activity centre vision for Hume.
Action 6: Develop an investment attraction strategy to attract major retail operators to centres within Hume, focusing on a department store and retail warehouse operators.
Action 7: Monitor planning and transport frameworks on an annual basis and modify details of this retail strategy as required. Monitor in particular the resolution of the Urban
Growth Boundary and more detailed urban planning and transport conditions within the urban area in relation to the assumptions of this report. It is possible and likely that conditions will change in the future as more detailed planning is undertaken and land use and transport directions are resolved for the growth areas. It will be necessary to monitor and modify the base data and review and refine the retail planning recommendations of this report over time.
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Appendices
Appendix 1 – Transport Model Scenarios
Shown below are indicative AM peak traffic flows on major roads. The first graphic provides an estimate for 2006 and the second graphic is a generalised scenario for 2031. The 2031 generalised scenario should be interpreted with caution as demand and road conditions are likely to change considerably in the future, and as such this output is one of many possible scenarios.
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Appendix 2 – Retail Centre Profiles
This Appendix provides profiles of:
Retail centres within Hume;
Selected major centres located outside of Hume; and
Bulky goods retail provision in the region.
Centres in Hume
This Appendix provides a brief profile of retail centres in Hume. Details of tenancies and vacancies have been informed by site visits. A SWOT analysis has been developed based on site visits, in addition to information provided by the Guide to Shopping Centres (Property Council of Australia,
2008) and the Hume Activity Centre Hierarchy Study ( 2004).
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Broadmeadows Shopping Centre (Colonial First State Retail Property Trust)
Pascoe Vale Road, Broadmeadows
Broadmeadows is a designated Central
Activities District by State Government and Principal Activity Centre in Hume‟s
2004 Activity Centre Hierarchy.
The centre is classified as a Regional
Shopping Centre by the Property Council of Australia (2008).
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Target, Big W, Safeway, Coles, Best & Less, JB Hi Fi, Hoyts
Cinema, The Warehouse.
190 speciality stores including La Porchetta, Just Jeans and
Jay Jays.
55,900 m²
(Broadmeadows Transit City Study – SGS 2008)
Low (3.7%)
Business 1 Zoning, which allows for a wide range of retail uses.
Special Building Overlay, which follows a creek/drainage corridor through to Centre to allow for waterway access and flood management.
Train/Bus/Car
Largest retail offer in Hume.
Undeveloped land provides opportunity for expansion.
Provision of multiple transport options.
Co-located with municipal offices and library, encouraging multi-purpose trips.
Recent redevelopment has added several cafes near Hoyts
Cinema, in addition to an Aldi, Strathfield and Dick Smith powerhouse.
Some of the centre includes active frontages.
In comparison to metro Melbourne, the centre has a limited retail offer with mostly lower end retail.
Most north and south bound travel through Hume bypasses the centre, by using the Hume Highway and Freeway.
Connections to Craigieburn and northern growth areas are limited.
Tightly held land holdings.
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Opportunities:
Threats:
Hume City Retail Strategy
Capturing large potential expenditure from future residents, which are forecast to grow at a high rate.
Provision of E14 road to better access northern growth areas.
Further redevelopment in a similar design to recent additions near Hoyts Cinemas.
New centres in growth areas can redirect expenditure.
Expanding established centres in nearby municipalities.
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Sunbury Town Centre (Ruffy Investments Pty Ltd)
Evans, O’Shannassy, Brook and Horne
Streets, Sunbury
Sunbury Town Centre is a Major Activity
Centre incorporating Sunbury Central
(see separate profile), Sunbury Square and Sunbury Terrace Shopping Centres, along with street-based retail.
These enclosed shopping centres which form part of the Sunbury Town Centre are designated as Neighbourhood shopping centres by the Property
Council of Australia (2008).
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Coles, Kmart, Best & Less, The Warehouse, Harris Scarfe
Speciality tenants including clothing, food and homeware retailing
51,421m² (Sunbury Strategic Framework Plan – SGS
2006)
Low
Predominantly zoned Business 1, but also has sections of
Business 4 Zoning and Mixed Use Zoning.
Parts of the centre are covered by a Design and
Development Overlay and Development Plan Overlay.
Rail
The Town Centre provides a wide ranging retail offer and is co-located with community facilities (library, employment services) and health services (medical centres, dentist and pharmacy) to provide for multi-purpose trips.
Grid-style layout of town centre allows for a high level of pedestrian permeability.
Entrances to major supermarkets are located at the railway station.
Low stock of vacant land available for future development.
A shortage of car parking spaces which is in part caused by public transport commuters.
Poor integration between new retail development west of the rail line and the town centre on the east.
Increased integration between retail precincts, new larger format retail centres and train station.
Redevelopment of existing sites within centre.
New larger format retailing along Station Street and Gap
Road may redistribute customers and expenditure.
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Sunbury Central Shopping Centre
Horne Street, Sunbury
Sunbury Central is an enclosed shopping centre located in the Sunbury Town
Centre.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Big W, Safeway
Speciality tenants including clothing, food and homeware retailing
10,800m² (Sunbury Strategic Framework Plan – SGS
2006)
Low
Predominantly zoned Business 1, but also has sections of
Business 4 Zoning and Mixed Use Zoning.
Parts of the centre are covered by a Design and
Development Overlay and Development Plan Overlay.
Rail
The location of the centre within Sunbury Town Centre allows for a high level of accessibility and exposure.
Horne St positioning provides easy accessibility for cars, and this is supported with a two level car park (see image inset above).
Dated appearance of centre.
Lack of separation to Sunbury Town Centre means that
Sunbury Central is not often viewed as a centre in its „own right‟, but as a part of the larger retail concentration.
Increased pedestrian/accessibility integration between retail precincts, new larger format retail centres and train station.
Redevelopment of centre to help distinguish it from the rest of Sunbury Town Centre.
New larger format retailing along Station Street and Gap
Road may redistribute customers and expenditure.
Diffusion of bulky goods retail development throughout centre may increase the number of car trips.
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Threats:
Gladstone Park Shopping Centre
Mickleham Road, Gladstone Park
Gladstone Park is a Major Activity
Centre in Hume.
The Property Council of Australia (2008) has designated the centre as a Sub-
Regional Shopping Centre.
The centre includes a large food retailing offer, in addition to lower-order clothing and household goods. Some business services such as accountants and real estate are also located within the centre.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Dimmeys, Woolworths and IGA.
90 speciality tenants including Miller‟s Fashion Club,
Ticketek and Australia Post.
21,351m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008)
7.8% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to the entire centre.
Bus
Co-located with bulky goods retailing and community facilities including a school.
Generous provision of car parking.
Dated retail premises.
Fragmented ownership (strata titled) structure.
Low pedestrian and bicycle amenity.
Poor interfaces along some parts.
Improved integration with community facilities and bulky goods retail opposite Mickleham Road.
High traffic flow along Mickleham Road provides for exposure opportunities.
Reinvestment in building stock.
Low population growth rates in immediate surrounds.
Newer retail centres attracting existing expenditure.
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Campbellfield Plaza (Industry Superannuation Property Trust)
Mahoneys Road and Hume Highway,
Campbellfield
Campbellfield Plaza is a Neighbourhood
Activity centre in Hume.
The centre provides a food retail offer, and limited business services including a
Post Office. It is located on a main road, and adjoins the small strip centre of Mahoneys Plaza.
This centre is classified as a Sub-
Regional shopping centre by the
Property Council of Australia (2008).
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Kmart, Coles and Officeworks.
22 speciality stores including Flight Centre, Australia Post and a pharmacy.
18,116 m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008)
0% as of March 2009
A Business 1 Zone applies to the entire centre allowing for a range of retail uses.
A Development Plan Overlay 5 applies to the site
(Campbellfield Plaza Development Plan). This stipulates a maximum of 20,000m² of leasable retail floorspace.
Bus
Recent investment provides an attractive retail offer.
Outward facing centre allows for active frontages.
Car accessibility and parking is high.
Position on the Hume Highway provides a high level of accessibility and visibility to north and southbound traffic from growth areas, and east-west movement along Camp
Road and Mahoneys Road.
The centre is car based and highly segregated from residential areas.
Poor pedestrian accessibility.
Improved integration with surrounding residential areas.
Improved bus accessibility.
Population growth is low in the immediate vicinity.
Establishment of competing centre(s) nearby.
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Roxburgh Park Shopping Centre (Colonial First State Property Trust)
Somerton Road, Roxburgh Park
Roxburgh Park Shopping Centre is a modern retail offer located in a new residential estate. Roxburgh Park is a
Major Activity Centre in Hume.
The Property Council of Australia (2008) describes it as a Sub-Regional Shopping
Centre.
The retail offer centres on food, but also includes household goods and some business and health services.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Public Transport Accessibility:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Safeway and The Warehouse
25 speciality stores including Supercheap Auto, Subway and Blockbuster Video.
9,147m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008)
0% as of March 2009)
Business 1 Zoning covers the entire site.
Development Plan Overlay Schedule 7 applies to the Centre providing for an urban development area.
Rail/bus
Modern retail centre with a strong daily and weekly convenience offer.
Adjacent to Roxburgh Park Railway Station.
Vacant land in the vicinity to provide for new development.
Located near bulky goods format centre.
Poor pedestrian integration with residential areas.
Located adjacent to an industrial area which provides half a residential catchment.
Low / inefficient land utilisation rate.
Poor interfaces and blank walls in some parts.
Increasing population in wider catchment.
Future expansion into vacant land.
Establishment of new bulky goods centre adjacent to
Centre may encourage multi-purpose trips.
Industrial uses to the east which may have amenity impacts on the Centre.
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Threats:
Craigieburn Plaza
Craigieburn Road West and Hanson
Road, Craigieburn
Craigieburn Plaza is a designated
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume.
It has a neighbourhood level retail classification by the Property Council of
Australia (2008).
It combines an older centre to the east, with a newer retail development across the carpark to the west.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Safeway.
60 speciality tenancies including La Porchetta, Cash
Convertors and Ferguson Plarre Bakehouse.
10,063m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008)
1.7% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning covers the entire site, allowing a wide variety of retail uses.
Bus/Rail
Good car parking and a high level of car accessibility via the Hume Highway.
A strong convenience retail offer.
Co-located with community facilities and business services.
Train station is within walking distance.
Poor urban design in the older section of the Centre. Older section is inward facing and provides no active frontage.
Fragmented land ownership, constraining comprehensive renewal of the centre.
Limited amount of land available for centre expansion.
A high rate of population growth to the north and west of the centre, boosting the market size.
Integration of the centre with the rail station.
Future Craigieburn Town Centre is likely to provide a strong level of competition, drawing existing customers from the
Centre.
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Threats:
Meadow Heights Shopping Centre (Centro Properties Group)
Paringa Boulevard, Meadow Heights
Meadow Heights Shopping Centre is a modern convenience centre in a residential estate, and is a designated
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume.
The Property Council of Australia (2008) classifies Meadow Heights Shopping
Centre as a Neighbourhood Centre.
The centre provides a good food retailing offer, in addition to some business and medical services.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Morgan‟s IGA.
29 speciality stores including Chemmart Pharmacy, Civic
Video and Australia Post.
5,071m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008)
3.4% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to Meadow Heights Shopping
Centre.
Bus
Meadow Heights Shopping Centre provides a good daily and weekly convenience offer.
Co-located with community facilities thus encouraging multi-purpose trips.
A good level of car access and parking.
Poor pedestrian integration between some parts of the centre and residential areas.
Low / inefficient land utilisation rate.
Poor interfaces / blank walls in some parts.
Vacant land surrounding parts of the shopping centre allow for future new development.
Building on the strong multicultural role of the area.
Stagnant population growth rates and income levels in the surrounding residential region.
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Greenvale Shopping Centre (Victoria Square Shopping Centre Pty Ltd)
Greenvale Drive and Mickleham Road,
Greenvale
Greenvale Shopping Centre is a
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume, and is designated as a Neighbourhood
Retail Centre by the Property Council of
Australia (2008).
Recently, Greenvale Shopping Centre was expanded and as a result, floorspace estimates are likely to be understated.
Major Tenants:
Other Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Coles.
13 speciality stores including Amcal Chemist, Delicatessen and a newsagency.
6,500m² (Property Council of Australia, 2008).
0% in older part, however new development has yielded 7 additional tenancies all of which were recently completed and vacant as of March 2009.
Business 1 Zoning applies to Greenvale Shopping Centre.
Bus
Attractive redevelopment includes active retail frontages and minimal enclosed retail space.
A strong daily and weekly convenience retail offer.
A high level of car access and parking.
Vacant land to the east of the existing centre for new development.
Located on the edge of the Urban Growth Boundary
(subject to change).
The centre has limited food, retail and entertainment tenants (however the new retail tenancies provide additional services).
Expansion of the centre to the east on vacant land.
New residential estates to the north in Greenvale may boost market size.
Addition of new competing centres in the vicinity, especially along the Mickleham Road corridor.
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Strengths:
Westmeadows Village Shopping Centre
Fawkner Street, Westmeadows
Westmeadows Village is a
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume, with a strip-style retail offer.
Tenants include a cake shop, cafe, liquor store and pharmacy. A community centre and a tavern are colocated with the shopping strip.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
IGA
4,470 m²
0% (As of March 2009)
Business 1 Zoning applies to Westmeadows Village.
Design and Development Overlay 4 applies to sections of the centre, including the IGA. The Overlay aims to ensure future development integrates with existing structures and environmental features.
Bus
A good daily food retail offer.
Co-located with trip generators (the community centre and tavern).
In an attractive gully setting with heritage buildings and bridge.
Pedestrian friendly with active frontages.
Good level of accessibility by bus.
No vacant land is available for redevelopment.
Parking constraints along Fawkner Street.
Some retail tenancies are dated.
Restructuring to take advantage of the Moonee Ponds
Creek corridor and heritage features.
Greater focus on leisure retail, taking advantage of the adjacent tavern.
Improved traffic and parking systems.
The surrounding residential area is not experiencing high population growth rates.
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Dallas Shopping Centre
Blair Street, Dallas
Dallas Shopping Centre is a
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume.
It is an open-air shopping centre.
Tenants include general retail, business services, health and community services and some entertainment
(billiards/snooker).
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Coles, Fresh Plus Supermarket
8,047 m² (Broadmeadows Transit City Analysis – SGS
2008)
0% (as of March 2009)
Business 1 Zoning applies to the entire Shopping Centre.
Melbourne Airport Environs Overlay (Schedule 2).
Bus
Open air, pedestrian-friendly layout with ample seating and shade sails.
Good provision of car parking.
A mix of convenience retail and specialist trip generators
(bank and snooker centre).
Significant vacant and undeveloped land stock.
Private building stock is generally outdated.
Pedestrian and bicycle links from the centre into residential areas are not well connected.
Low / inefficient land utilisation rate.
Poor interface with Blair Street.
Rationalise land stock exploring opportunities to convert vacant land and car parks for other uses.
Further urban design improvements, focusing on improving backs of buildings that face the street.
Investment in building stock.
Greater integration with surrounding residential areas to the site with better pedestrian and bike links.
Declining population and income levels in the surrounding residential areas.
Lack of investment in building stock.
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Tullamarine Shopping Centre
Melrose Drive, Tullamarine
Tullamarine Shopping Centre is a streetbased retail centre, located on a service road off Melrose Drive and is a classified
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Supermarket
2,772 m²
0% as of March 2009
Business 1 zoning applies to the centre
Bus
Located on a service lane of Melrose Drive, allowing for high visibility in addition to parking availability.
Good convenience retail offer, including food outlets, fast food, a milk bar, newsagent and florist.
Personal services, including a hairdresser and beautician.
The site is mostly built out, allowing little room for expansion.
The rear part of the centre has a direct interface with housing.
Bus services do not stop within the centre itself.
Difficult pedestrian access across Melrose Drive.
Better integration between the centre and surrounding residential and industrial areas with walking and cycling facilities.
Taking greater advantage of the passing trade.
Declining population and income levels in the surrounding residential area.
Increasing traffic levels on Melrose Drive, providing barriers to pedestrians.
Provision of similar retailers within new development around Melbourne Airport.
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Threats:
Olsen Place
Olsen Place, Broadmeadows
Olsen Place is a Neighbourhood Activity
Centre in Hume.
It has an open-air „town square‟ style layout. Tenants include a newsagency, liquor store, post office, chemist, medical centre and Community
Resource Centre.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
IGA
3,532 m²
Low (One vacancy as of March 2009)
Business 1 Zoning applies to the site
Bus
Pedestrian-friendly open-air mall.
Wide mix of local convenience retail and services.
Entertainment and recreation facilities, with cafes, arcade games and pool hall.
Well integrated with surrounding residential area.
Good urban design with ample seating available.
Community focal point.
Dated private retail premises.
No direct bus services.
Built out site with no opportunity for expansion into vacant land.
Lack of retail services to the site.
Capitalising on the centre‟s role as a community focal point by focusing on its entertainment and recreational offer.
Investment in building stock.
Integrate bus services to the site.
Declining population and income levels in the surrounding residential areas.
Lack of investment in building stock.
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Gap Road, Sunbury
Gap Road, Sunbury
A Neighbourhood Activity Centre in
Hume.
The centre is located on Gap Road in
Sunbury, providing a small number of retail tenancies.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Aldi
2,600 m²
0% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to the site.
Bus
A good daily retail convenience offer.
Good car access and parking availability.
New facilities.
Significant vacant land for development.
Located approximately 1km from the Sunbury Town Centre and is therefore well positioned to capture significant daily and weekly shopping trips from the surrounding area.
Bus is not integrated with the sit, bit is available on Gap
Road.
A growing residential population catchment.
Expansion of the centre to the north and east on vacant land.
Additional competition in the vicinity.
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Homestead Centre
Roxburgh Park Drive, Roxburgh Park
Homestead Centre is a Neighbourhood
Activity Centre in Hume.
It provides convenience goods to the surrounding residential population.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Sam‟s IGA
2,000 m²
0% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to the site.
Bus
A good convenience retail offer for the surrounding residential population.
Co-location with community facilities and a school, thus encouraging multi-purpose trips.
Visitors to the centre generally use cars, creating parking congestion and traffic conflict.
The site is small and generally built out.
Population growth in the surrounding area is likely to boost demand for convenience retail.
New centres in the area may erode Homestead‟s market share.
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Upfield Shopping Centre
Barry Road, Campbellfield
Upfield Shopping Centre is a traditional street-based retail centre, and is a classified as a Neighbourhood Activity
Centre in Hume.
Upfield Shopping Centre is not classified by the Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
None
3,500 m²
0% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to the site.
Melbourne Airport Environs Overlay Schedule 1 also covers the site.
Rail, Bus
Within easy walking distance of Upfield Train Station.
A wide mix of convenience retail and services.
Positioned to service the local community and workers at the adjacent Ford Plant.
The site is small and built out.
The layout of the centre creates congestion problems with significant car and pedestrian congestion and conflict at peak times which spills into neighbouring residential areas.
Utilisation of rail land along Dunstan Parade for formalised car parking.
Greater development in surrounding industrial and residential areas to boost market size.
Declining population and income levels in the surrounding residential areas.
Closure or scaling back of activity at the Ford Plant.
Worsening traffic congestion.
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Mahoney’s Plaza
Mahoneys Road, Campbellfield
Mahoney‟s Plaza is a small street-based retail centre, located behind
Campbellfield Plaza. It is classified as a
Neighbourhood Activity Centre in Hume.
The centre is not classified by the
Property Council of Australia.
Major Tenants:
Floorspace:
Vacancies:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
None
1,000 m²
0% as of March 2009
Business 1 Zoning applies to the Plaza.
Bus
Providing a convenience retail offer to surround residential areas.
Located behind Campbellfield Plaza, thus able to utilise ample car parking and their market share.
High visibility on Mahoneys Road, which has a high traffic flow.
Lacks a major tenant.
Loss of market share to Campbellfield Plaza.
Refurbishment of tenancies.
Improved pedestrian links between Campbellfield Plaza and
Mahoney‟s Plaza.
Increased expansion of Campbellfield Plaza, which may decrease its market share.
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Pipeworks
Mahoneys Road, Campbellfield
Pipeworks Fun Market provides a unique retail offer, and is situated on Mahoneys
Road near the Western Ring Road in
Campbellfield.
The market is open on weekends.
Stallholders:
Floorspace:
Zones and Overlays:
Transport Networks:
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Opportunities:
Threats:
Over 180 stallholders, selling fashion goods, electronic goods, souvenirs, toys and other goods.
The Pipeworks market site is over 7.5ha in size.
Business 2 zoning applies to the entire site.
Bus / Train in vicinity.
A unique retail offer, providing an enclosed space for a large number of stallholders selling a variety of products.
Well-located in terms of car access.
Very large site allows for future expansion.
Bus services are irregular, and the closest train stations are not within walkable distance.
Relatively low-end retail offer.
Not directly surrounded by residential areas.
Redevelopment of site to take advantage of its size.
Establishment of competing markets in superior locations in the region.
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Selected Major Centres Located Outside Hume
A regional view of retail requires consideration of the retail offer in surrounding local government areas and within the wider northern Melbourne region. This section identifies the five major centres within the wider region.
N o r th lan d
Murray Road, East Preston
Covering a GLAR of about 71,000m², Northlands is designated as a Principal Activity Centre and
Regional Shopping Centre.
Major tenants include Myer, Kmart, Best & Less,
Coles, Safeway and various mini majors and a
Hoyts Cinema Complex.
Source: Google Maps
Wa te rga r de n s
Covering a GLAR of about 53,000m²,
Watergardens is designated as a Principal Activity
Centre and Sub-Regional Shopping Centre.
Major tenants include Big W, Target, Safeway and
Coles, and the centre has 210 Speciality Stores.
Plans exist for the centre to expand to a total of around 90,000m². A Myer department store is scheduled to open at Watergardens in 2010.
Opposite the centre on Melton Highway is the
Watergardens Homemaker Centre. Tenants include
Rays Outdoors, Bunnings and Harvey Norman.
Melton Highway, Taylors Lakes
Source: Google Maps
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Hume City Retail Strategy
E ppin g Pl az a
Located within the Epping Principal Activity Centre,
Epping Plaza is a Sub-Regional shopping centre in the City of Whittlesea.
Following a recent expansion, the centre now has a GLAR of approximately 53,000m² (Property
Council of Australia, 2008). Major tenants include
Target, Harris Scarfe, Coles, Safeway and Big W.
High Street, Epping
Ple n t y Va ll e y
At the site of the future South Morang town centre is the newly expanded Westfield Plenty Valley. At the start of 2008, the centre had a GLAR of
5,768m² with major tenants such as Target, Kmart and Coles (pictured). The owner commenced redevelopment in 2007, expanding the area to
48,900m². Major tenants include Target, Kmart,
Coles, Safeway and Aldi.
Further expansion is planned, including the expected establishment of a 12,000m² Myer store in 2010-2011.
Source: Google Maps (photo is pre-expansion)
McDonalds Road, South Morang
Source: Google Maps
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Hume City Retail Strategy
A ir po rt W e s t
Airport West is located in the City of Moonee
Valley, and is a designated Principal Activity Centre and Sub-Regional Shopping Centre.
The centre spans a GLAR of about 53,000m² and is home to Aldi, Bi-Lo, Coles, Target, Harris Scarfe,
K-mart and Safeway.
Louis Street, Airport West
Source: Google Maps
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Appendix 3
– Regional Retail Locations
Regional retail locations are plotted in the following figures on the basis of retail jobs by type in travel zones for:
Total retail;
Department stores;
Household goods; and
Supermarkets.
Figure 65: Regional Retail Locations by Travel Zone
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Figure 66: Regional Department Store Locations by Travel Zone
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Figure 67: Regional Household Goods Locations by Travel Zone
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 154
Figure 68: Regional Supermarket Locations by Travel Zone
Hume City Retail Strategy
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Appendix 4 – Development Yield Assumptions
NOTES
1
These development cells form part of the Hume Retail Strategy's capacity analysis. Note that 'full development' has no associated timeframe attached, and refers to a broad level of theoretical capacity for Hume and selected surrounds to accommodate population and jobs based on assumptions regarding land provision and development possibilities. The ultimate extent of the area is defined by the Urban Growth Boundary as at June 2009 and the proposed expansion to the Urban Growth
Boundary as announced by the State Government in June 2009. Parts of Melton, Mitchell and Whittlesea municipalities are included in the analysis because of the potential retail catchment relationship of the selected areas.
2
The development cells have been selected to follow natural catchments and data areas as much as possible. Development assumptions are based on existing zoned urban uses and assumptions regarding the future use of farming or non-urban land.
Where land is farming or non-urban, the order of assumptions is as follows: formal policy in the form of approved structure plans or development plans; informal policy (by Hume City Council / DPCD / GAA); and developer aspirations.
3
Dwelling estimates for cells with greenfield land are based on potential residential land with a 60% developable rate. A standard rate of 15 dwellings per hectare has been applied to all the cells, except for Development Cell 64, which aligns wit h
Hume's submission to Melbourne @ 5 Million estimate of 2 dwellings per hectare. For established cells, SGS's small area population and dwelling forecasts (to 2046) have been utilised.
4
Population estimates have been derived from dwelling estimates. A dwelling occupancy rate of 97% is applied, which is drawn from VIF first release (revised) projected occupancy rates. The number of occupied dwellings (or households) is then multiplied by the projected household size of 2.9 persons per household to estimate the ultimate projected population. For established cells, SGS's small area population and dwelling forecasts (to 2046) have been utilised.
5
Job estimates are based on potential employment land with a 60% developable rate. A job density of 85 jobs per developable hectare has been applied, based on a 50/50 split between office and industrial sectors. The job spilt is assumed to be 50-50 white collar and blue collar workers. This split reflects Council's intentions with employment areas, as well as general employment shifts towards a service based economy. For established cells, SGS's small area employment forecasts (to 2046) have been utilised.
6
White Collar workers are defined as: Managers and Administrators; Professionals; Associate Professionals; Advanced Clerical and Service Workers; Intermediate Clerical; and Sales and Service Workers. Blue Collar workers are defined as: Tradespersons and Related Workers; Intermediate Production and Transport Workers; and Elementary Clerical, Sales and Service Workers.
6
All figures in the table have been rounded. The data sources are GIS MapInfo, ABS Census, Hume City Council, DPCD, GAA, developer information and SGS estimates and projections.
20082445-Final Report 18 Sept 2009.doc P. 156
