Investor Presentation
July 2012
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to OJSC MMC
Norilsk Nickel (“Norilsk Nickel” or “NN”) at the time of preparation of the presentation. External or
other factors may have impacted on the business of Norilsk Nickel and the content of this
presentation, since its preparation. In addition all relevant information about Norilsk Nickel may
not be included in this presentation. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made
as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.
Any forward looking information herein has been prepared on the basis of a number of
assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. Forward looking statements, by the nature, involve
risk and uncertainty and Norilsk Nickel cautions that actual results may differ materially from those
expressed or implied in such statements. Reference should be made to the most recent Annual
Report for a description of the major risk factors. This presentation should not be relied upon as a
recommendation or forecast by Norilsk Nickel, which does not undertake an obligation to release
any revision to these statements.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or
invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in
Norilsk Nickel, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the
basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision.
1
Norilsk Nickel At a Glance
Key highlights
Key financials
World leader in nickel and palladium with top 5 positions
in platinum, cobalt, rhodium and a strong presence in
copper
US$ mln
2006
2007
2008
2009*
2010*
2011
Revenue
11,923
17,119
13,980
8,542
12,775
14,122
EBITDA
7,736
10,253
5,807
4,198
7,209
7,239
„
Long-life, low-cost, vertically integrated producer
margin (%)
65
60
42
49
56
51
Net income
5,965
5,276
-555
2,504
5,234
3,626
„
Strong portfolio of growth opportunities both domestically
and internationally
margin (%)
50
31
nm
29
41
26
Net debt
-1,388
4,064
4,445
1,685
-2,608
3,514
„
Solid financial standing and balance sheet supported by
hefty free cash generation ability
Net debt/
EBITDA
-0.2
0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.4
0.5
„
Committed to returning capital to shareholders
„
Extensive worldwide operations
Kola MMC
Source:
Note:
Company data
* Financial results of discontinued operations (OGK-3 and Stillwater) were deconsolidated for 2009-2010
Revenue mix by products & destinations
Polar Division
Harjavalta
NN Corporate Headquarters
NN Europe, UK
Chita Copper Project
Overseas,
Switzerland
Palladium
15%
NN Beijing
NN USA
NN Shanghai
NN Hong Kong
Mining operations
Development projects
Smelting/refining operations
Headquarters and sales offices
$ 13,297
mln
Tati Nickel
Nkomati Nickel
Black Swan
Lake Johnston
Cawse
Waterloo
Source: Norilsk Nickel
2
Norilsk Nickel – Market Positions by Production
Norilsk Nickel is a world leader in nickel and palladium production with strong positions in
platinum, copper, cobalt and rhodium
5%
Aquarius
NN
Implats
11% 11%
Lonmin
21%
1,000
Angloplats
(koz)
32%
2,000
0
Copper
Source:
GFMS, Brook Hunt, CRU, companies’ results announcements, Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, estimates from company reports
Notes:
1
Cobalt metal
KGHM
NN
S.Copper
Rio Tinto
A.American
BHP
Xstrata
2,000 11%
9%
1,500
6%
5%
1,000
4% 4% 4%
3%
2%
500
0
Codelco
Freeport
Murrin
NN
Xstrata
Catanga
Sherritt
Chambishi
5,000
15%
13%
4,000
12% 11%
10%
3,000
8%
2,000
6%
1,000
0
Jinchuan
(tonnes)
4%
Northam
12% 6%
Aquarius
15%
NN
Implats
100
Lonmin
23%
Angloplats
(koz)
5%
Cobalt 1
300 35%
0
12% 6%
500
0
Rhodium
200
16%
1,500
(kt)
BHP
Xstrata
Jinchuan
Vale
0
NN
100
4%
Lonmin
5%
Stillwater
7%
3,000
3,500 41%
2,500
NN
8%
200
(koz)
14%
Platinum
Implats
18%
SMM
(kt)
300
Palladium
Angloplats
Nickel
3
Production Update
1Q 2012 production results
2012 production outlook
„ Nickel output increased by 7% q-o-q due to superior
performance of Russian divisions (+3%), launch of Lake
Johnston in Australia and better loading rate of
Harjavalta refinery in Finland
„ Nickel
295-305kt including 235-240kt from Russia
„ Copper
365-370kt including 355-360kt from Russia
„ Palladium
2.7-2.75mln oz incl 2.6.-2.65mln oz from Russia
„ Copper production decreased by 6% q-o-q due to
anticipated decline of output at Russian divisions
„ Platinum
675-685koz including 650-660koz from Russia
„ Palladium output was lower by 5% q-o-q as a result of
accumulation of unfinished metal at Russian operations
Nickel, ‘000 tones
71
76
Copper, ‘000 tones
94
681
88
233
236
237
Palladium, ‘000 ounces
Platinum, ‘000 ounces
170
649
166
235240
Russian operations
Norilsk Nickel International
Source: Company data
4
Russian Operations: Key Investment Priorities
2012 total capital expenditures budget for Russian operations is more than US$ 3 bn
1.
Key industrial assets
5. Social obligations
„
Construction, expansion and launch of facilities
„
Reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions and improving utilization
of sulfur by Polar Division
„Continue implementation of the incentive program for acquiring
continental property for employees on beneficial terms
„
Shift to roasting-free briquetting of concentrates
2. Provision of reliable energy supply
„Development of Pelyatkinskoye gas condensate field and
construction of new gas and condensate pipe lines
„Reconstruction of power generation
„Creation an emergency power supply control system
3. Company’s transport autonomy improvement
„Construction of proprietary transshipment terminal in Murmansk
„Continuing of construction of “Arena - Norilsk Sports and
Entertainment Center” in Norilsk
6. Other
„Development of polymetallic deposits in Zabaikalsky Territory
„Finalization of design of Bystrinsky mining and processing works
and go forward with design of Bugdainsky mining and processing
works
„Continue construction of rail road to Bystrinsky mining and
processing works, complete design and begin construction of road to
Bugdainsky mining and processing works
2011 CAPEX Breakdown
4. Support and development of the mineral resources
„Geologic prospecting of areas adjacent to operating mines in
Taimyr and Kola Peninsula
Source: Norilsk Nickel data
5
Financial Results
Solid Financial Performance
Strong financial performance driven by efficient cost management
Revenue
Source:
Note:
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Company data
* Financial results of discontinued operations (OGK-3 and
Stillwater) were deconsolidated for 2009-2010
7
EBITDA Analysis
„
Adjusted EBITDA increased up to US$ 7,239 mln in 2011
„
Growth of cost metal sales largely explained by:
−
absolute growth of labor expenses
−
increase of cost of raw materials bought from 3d parties due to growth of purchased volumes
„
Export customs duties mostly on nickel and copper increased by US$ 469 mln accounting for major part of growth
of SG&A expenses
„
Depreciation & amortization charge amounted to US$ 761mln (-5% y-o-y)
„
CAPEX amounted to US$ 2,232 mln
Adjusted EBITDA bridge, US$ mln
Source:
Company data
8
Costs Analysis
„
In 2011 cash costs increased by US$ 629 mln mostly due to following:
− US$ 307 mln – growth of purchased semiproducts to enhance loading rates at Company’s plants
− US$ 88 mln – spike of social security tax rate (from 26% in 2010 up to 34% in 2011), growth of wages
„
Proprietary fleet and improvements in logistics contributed to decrease in transportation expense by US$ 22 mln
„
3d parties services cost decreased by 9% due to shift to in-house services instead of third party services
Bridge of cash costs1, US$ mln
Source:
Note:
Company data
1 Before netting by-product sales for metal divisions
9
Debt & Liquidity Position
„
As of 2011 year-end, total debt equaled US$ 5.1 bn, on back of US$ 1.6 bn cash pile
„
Erosion of cash pile in 2011 was due to buy backs implemented in order to return capital to shareholders
„
Current level of leverage below 0.5x Net debt/EBITDA is comfortable
„
Recommended annual dividend for pay-out in 2012 is US$ 6.2 per share
Cash & debt dynamics, US$ mln
Source: Company data
10
Strategic Update
Strategy Goals
… allowing the management to move the Company to a strategically new level
.
1
Become a TOP-5 major international miner by market capitalization and EBITDA
2
Implement upside potential through organic and M&A growth at world class deposits in regions of core
competitive advantage
3
Ensure growth of production while maintaining EBITDA margin for current assets and obtaining EBITDA
margin similar to top-5 peers at new projects with average margin of 50% at mid cycle prices
4
Ensure stability and security of core Russian operations by warranting infrastructure and
services’ costs at levels competitive to any third party suppliers
5
Safeguard Company's key competitive advantage as the lowest cash-cost nickel producer
6
Diversify through expanding in Russia and internationally at assets that either industry Tier 1
7
assets (first cost quartile, first quartile in terms of annual production), or meet Company’s investment goals
Distribute capital to shareholders in amounts exceeding Company's investment and funding
requirements while preserving robust balance sheet
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
12
Key Strategic Pillars
Growth of output in .Russia and
Finland
(000s t)
Nickel
+19%
287
300
342
150
0
2011
2025
Copper
+49%
(000s t)
546
500
363
250
0
2011
2
Product diversification
3
International expansion
Adding new metals to current
basket: iron ore, coal,
molybdenum, etc
Strong existing footprint
forming a firm base for future
development
Lowering revenue volatility
and diversifying revenue mix
International expansion as
function of product
diversification (Australia,
Indonesia, etc.)
Creating additional
shareholder value through
implementation of new
projects
International growth to be
driven by high return projects
2025
PGMs
+41%
200
(tonnes)
1
150
106
100
0
2011
2025
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
13
Metal Production by Russian Divisions & NNH
Copper production outlook, kt
Nickel production outlook, kt
400
600
350
550
300
500
250
450
200
400
150
350
100
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Russian Divisions own production
2019
2020
2021
2022
NNH production
2023
2024
2025
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Total
Russian Divisions own production
PGMs production outlook, t
Chita project
Growth of metal output will be achieved through:
150
140
— growth of mined ore tonnages at existing mines and
brownfield projects
130
120
— launch of Chita Project (copper)
110
100
— development of Maslovskoe deposit (PGMs)
90
— improvements of enrichment and smelting technologies
80
70
— efficient smelting and refining capacity loading of Polar
Division and Kola MMC
60
50
2011
300
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Russian Divisions own production
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
14
Maslovskoe Deposit: Emergence of New Mining District
Mineral resource base of Maslovskoe deposit
comprises 215 mln tonnes of ore
Map of Maslovskoe deposit
Norilsk-1 deposit
Construction includes:
— mine – over 7 mln tonnes ore pa
— enrichment plant – 6 mln tonnes ore pa
— tailings’ infrastructure
— other infrastructure
Total construction period including additional
exploration works – ca 12 years
Capital budget – ca $2.0 bln
Potential for partial use of existing infrastructure of
Zapolyarny mine
In-depth ore-bearing intrusion contour
Exploration and prospecting wells
Maslovskoe deposit
Mineral resource base of Maslovskoe deposit
Reserves under
categories С1 +С2
Metal grades
Palladium (‘000 ounces)
35 462
4.56 g/t
Platinum (‘000 ounces)
12 475
1.78 g/t
1 122
0.51 %
Nickel (‘000 tonnes)
728
0.33 %
Cobalt (‘000 tonnes)
34
0.016 %
1 318
0.19 g/t
Copper (‘000 tonnes)
Gold (‘000 ounces)
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
15
Maslovskoe Deposit: Delivering Growth of Production
Development timeline
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Mine
Enrichment plant
Tailings pit
Geological exploration
Feasibility study
Construction documentation
Mine construction
Construction of
concentrator
Construction of
tailings dump
Commissioning &
ramp-up
Projected metals’ output
Nickel, ‘000 tonnes
Copper, ‘000 tonnes
PGMs, tonnes
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
16
Chita Project: Development of World Class Mining District
Chita project is being implemented as public private partnership – Norilsk Nickel is responsible for development of deposits,
government – for railroad construction
Partnership Passport after amendments envisages 80.4 bln RUR Norilsk Nickel’s investments, including 8.06 bln RUR
railroad construction, as well as 72.3 bln RUR deposits’ development and construction of plants
Railroad to be commissioned by 2011 year-end, construction works have started
NPV – ca 7bn RUR, discounted payback period – less than 15 years
Norilsk Nickel’s capex under Chita project, mln RUR1
Preparing for full scale construction works in region…
17,247
13,356
13,439
8,726
6,706
2012
2013
Bystrinsky plant
2014
Bugdainsky plant
2015
2016
Railroad construction
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
Notes:
1
Not including VAT
17
Chita Project: Snapshot on Deposits
Mineral reserves of Bystrinskoe deposit under categories
B+С1+C2 – 292 mln tonnes of ore, including:
— copper 2 073k tonnes @ 0.71%
— gold 236 tonnes @ 0.81 g/t
— iron ore 68 mln tonnes @ 23.2%
— silver 1.1k tonnes @ 3.63%
Map of south-eastern part of Zabaikalsk Region
Mineral reserves of Bugdainskoe deposit under categories
B+С1+C2 – 813 mln tonnes of ore, including:
— molybdenum 600k tonnes @ 0.08%
— gold 11 tonnes @ 0.28 g/t
— silver 194 tonnes @ 4.96 g/t
Estimated annual production:
— ore
26 mln tonnes
(16 mln t – Bugdainskoe, 10 mln t – Bystrinskoe)
— copper in concentrate
66k tonnes
— molybdenum in concentrate
12k tonnes
— iron ore concentrate @ 61%
2 136k tonnes
— gold
7 tonnes
Mine life – over 30 years
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
18
Chita Project: Implementation Timeline
In 2H 2011 active construction works have started at Bystrinsky plant
Comprehensive engineering roadmap is being finalised for Bugdainsky plant with construction works to be launched in
2012
Bystrinsky mining and enrichment plant to be commissioned in 2015
Bugdainsky mining and enrichment plant to be commissioned in 2016
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Bystrinsky plant
Bugdainsky plant
Railroad construction
Electricity grids
Exploration works
Prefeasibility study
Feasibility study
Construction
Commissioning
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
19
Key Infrastructure Development Areas
Gas supplies
Ramp-up of Pelyatkinskoe gas condensate field to secure
energy raw materials supplies to Norilsk region
Construct gas condensate pipeline from Pelyatka and
Dudinka
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 4 billion
Transport
Construct Arctic sea fleet to enhance transport
independence
Upgrade sea and river fleet
Build logistics hub in Murmansk region
Build fuel terminal in Arkhangelsk for proprietary ice
breaking tanker
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 3.2 billion
Auxiliary infrastructure
Utilities
Modernise facilities and equipment of supporting
subsidiaries: Polar Construction Company, Norilsk Support
Facility, Norilsknikelremont, Norilsk Industrial Transport,
etc.
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 5.7 billion
Modernise generating facilities in Norilsk region
(Thermal Power Plants – 1, 2, 3 and UstKhantayskaya Hydro Power Plant)
Upgrade electricity grid to increase throughput
from Kureyskaya and Ust-Khantayskaya Hydro
Power Plants
Planned investments till 2025 – US$ 2.1 billion
Source: Norilsk Nickel Strategy
.
20
Metal Markets
Nickel Market Outlook
3 key areas to watch out:
„ Level of Chinese nickel pig iron production:
Nickel supply, ‘000t
- potential additions of new pig iron capacity in next 12 years with lower operating costs
- appreciation of RMB against US Dollar and rising
costs for energy, labor and transport to push high
cost operations to $9-12/lb in the medium term
- Indonesia’s taxes on raw materials exports and
introduction of export ban starting from 2014
„ Ramp-up of new big greenfield projects:
- Looming oversupply as a result of successful
commissioning of up to 300ktpa additional capacity
Nickel consumption, ‘000t
- Strong track record of persistent delays and
technical failures, reconfirmed by recent forcemajeure at Vale’s flagship Goro project
„ Demand outlook:
- Macroeconomic instability is taking its toll
- Likely pick-up in stainless steel production in US
- Continuing growth in global consumption from nonstainless steel applications, namely non-ferrous
alloys (superalloys) in aerospace sector due to
increase in aircraft build rates
Source: Deutsche Bank, Macquarie research
22
NPI: Key Swinging Factor in Nickel Market Equation
„ NPI emerged as response to nickel price escalation in mid2000s and is currently produced and consumed by China
only
Cash cost composition BF vs EAF
„ NPI is high cost production due to significant energy
intensity of process and transportation costs for ore
sourced from Philippines and Indonesia
„ Key components of cash costs for BF – coking coal (58%),
ore (15%), transportation (13%), for EAF – power (30%),
ore (26%), coking coal (20%) and transportation (17%)
2011 nickel industry cost curve
„ Brook Hunt estimates that at price level $18.3k/t Ni,
production of 110kt of Ni in form of NPI is uneconomic and
cash burning
„ Announced export taxes (25% in 2012, 50% in 2013) to be
followed with export ban on nickel ore from Indonesia in
2014 (53% of Chinese ore import in 2011) provide efficient
long-term floor to nickel price
Nickel ore imports to China
Source: Brook Hunt, HSBC
23
Palladium Market Balance
„ Primary palladium consumption exceeds its production
due to a number of fundamental factors
Global supply & demand balance
„ Gap in consumption and production has been mitigated
by deliveries from the Russian state stockpile
„ In recent years, oversupply was absorbed by strong
emergence of investment demand
„ Since 2011, no influence on the market is expected to
come from deliveries of Russian palladium reserves
„ In long run, consumption growth rate should continue to
exceed production growth rate and move palladium
market into sustained deficit
Pt to Pd ratio in European autocats in 2009-2011
Palladium consumption by industry & regions
Chemicals
5%
Electronics
20%
Dental
9%
Jewelry
8%
Other
1%
China
16%
North America
24%
Other
18%
Autocats
57%
Japan
19%
EU
23%
Source: Johnson Matthew, Renaissance Capital, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Macquarie research
24
Palladium Demand: Consumption
Palladium consumption is projected to grow driven by the auto
industry (66% of gross palladium demand):
US car sales are holding up well…
„ continuing growth of palladium demand in autocats as
EM and US car markets have favorable outlook
„ full implementation of Euro-V in light duty vehicles
„ return to normal mode of operation by Japanese car
industry post devastating earthquake in March 2011
„ continued growth of palladium content in diesel and
heavy trucks engines
„ growth of car market in China, mostly represented by
gasoline-powered vehicles whose catalysts tend to be
more palladium intensive (70% of all light vehicles
production globally)
Wider recognition of palladium as a metal of choice by high-end
jewellery
… and car ownership in China is yet to catch up
Car ownership per 1,000 people
(units)
„ end-user demand should continue to grow strongly over
the medium term due to tighter emissions regulations
Modest increase in palladium demand for electronics, chemical,
and glass industries
Source: Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, VTB Research, Renaissance Capital, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie research
25
Investments: Source For Additional Growth In
Palladium Demand
„ In 2010-2011 number of palladium ETPs increased from 2
to 9
New surge of investor interest to palladium
„ After reaching historic highs in Jan 2011 palladium ETP
holdings declined to 1.6 moz by year-end
„ Despite this, fundamentals for palladium remain robust –
stagnating supply, evaporation of sales from Russian state
stockpile vs continuing growth of car production especially
in EM
„ Net long positions have recently bounced sharply due to
combination of factors – short covering and new inflows
„ Since beginning of 2012, palladium ETF demand has
already partially recovered and is expected to continue
growing
Bounce back of Nymex speculative net longs
„ In long run price gap between palladium and platinum is
envisaged to further narrow
Source: Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, Bloomberg, VTB Capital
26
IR Contact Details
Alexey Ivanov
Investor Relations
MMC Norilsk Nickel
Sergey Belyakov
Investor Relations
MMC Norilsk Nickel
Tel: +7 495 786 83 20
Fax: +7 495 797 86 13
e-mail: ivanovavl@nornik.ru, belyakovSS@nornik.ru, ir@nornik.ru
22, Voznesensky Pereulok,
Moscow, Russia, 125993
27