FIELD PRODUCTION STRATEGY
BASED ON INTEGRATED SYSTEM MODELING
Juan G. Faustinelli
Europe, Asia & Africa - Upstream
Paris, October 29th 2009
Full Field Modeling
Data Access
Automation
Surveillance
Monitoring
Operation
Optimization
DAYS
Reservoir
Simulation
Diagnostics
Production
Optimization
Field
Optimization
MONTHS
YEARS
– Still uncertainty which workflow should be applied
– Need for improved communication (work silos)
System Modeling Approach
Well Scheduling
Boosting
Artificial Lift
Surface Configuration
IGIP
IPR
VLP
CO2 control
Well Production Constraints
System Modeling Approach
Well Scheduling
Boosting
Artificial Lift
Surface Configuration
IGIP
IPR
VLP
CO2 control
Well Production Constraints
System Modeling Approach
The integrated modeling approach inter-relates the reservoir
variables, well productivities and surface configuration, and is
capable of estimating an integrated field production plan
Well Scheduling
Well Constraints
Production Limitations
High & Low SEP
Control Variable
System Control
Understanding the System Drivers
• How can we select the best option for a field development
plan?
– Assumptions are a key factor
– Iterative process considering the main drivers
• Boosting / artificial lift & CO2 strategy
• Field process start up
• Production plateau
Understanding the System Drivers
• How can we select the best option for a field development
plan?
– Assumptions are a key factor
– Iterative process considering the main drivers
• Boosting / artificial lift & CO2 strategy
• Field process start up
• Production plateau
Maximize NPV
- Corporate & stake holder interest
- Lower Capex + Opex + Abex
Strategy
“ It is about being different, it means deliberately
choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique
mix of value”
M. Porter
Strategy
”It is about being different, it means deliberately
choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique
mix of value”
M. Porter
“The framework which guides those choices that
determine the nature and direction of an organization”
Tregoe and Zimmerman
Strategy
”It is about being different, it means deliberately
choosing a different set of activities to deliver a unique
mix of value”
M. Porter
“The framework which guides those choices that
determine the nature and direction of an organization”
Tregoe and Zimmerman
“It is a plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal”
Wikipedia
Gas Production Forecast
CO2 strategy
Plateau duration
Boosting approach
Qg
time
Gas Production Forecast
Total Production
vs.
Qg
Sales Gas
time
Strategy
Blending period
Vol.
Main asset exploitation
Uncertainty reduction
time
Oil Production System
Production Forecast
Qo
time
Power
Producer A
WSW A
Total A
Production & Injection System
time
Underground Gas Storage
SLUG CATCHER
Offshore UGS
PLATFORM
TRUNKLINE
RESERVOIR
Integrated System Modeling
Drilling
Engineering
Operation
Maintenance
Activities
Reservoir Wells
Compressors
Pipelines Plant
Assets
Personnel Tools
Resources
Integrated System Modeling
Drilling
Engineering
Operation
Maintenance
Activities
Reservoir Wells
Compressors
Pipelines Plant
Assets
DRIVERS
&
CONSTRAINTS
Personnel Tools
Resources
Integrated System Modeling
Drilling
Engineering
Operation
Maintenance
Activities
Reservoir Wells
Compressors
Pipelines Plant
Assets
Personnel Tools
Resources
Drivers & Constraints
Results
Gas & Oil
Forecast
Assumption
• Are we using the right scale?
Assumption
• Are we using the right scale?
Assumption
• Are we using the right scale?
Assumption
• Are we using the right scale?
• Can we integrate better all the information available?
• Do we have to get more information before making FID?
“Far better
an approximate answer to the right question,
than
the exact answer to the wrong question,
which can always be made precise.”
John Tukey
(1962)
Where are the uncertainties?
UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Data
Parameters
Model Errors
Where are the uncertainties?
UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Data
Parameters
Model Errors
Measurement
Production
Not taking into
errors
allocation
account all the
physics
+
Unknown knowns
Where are the uncertainties?
UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Data
Parameters
Model Errors
Measurement
Production
Not taking into
errors
allocation
account all the
physics
+
Unknown knowns
Human Factor
Where are the uncertainties?
UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Data
Parameters
Model Errors
Human Factor
Measurement
Production
Not taking into
Overconfidence
errors
allocation
account all the
Experience
Who is doing it?
physics
+
Unknown knowns
Pessimistic
vs.
Optimistic
Real Time – Integrated System Modeling
process
people
technology
Importance
value
hours
days
weeks
months
years
life of field
- Creating multi-disciplinary team environment
- Less time collecting data
- More optimization (analyzing more information than generating it)
Uncertainties on the production forecast
• Reservoir heterogeneities
• Technology advancement during the life of the asset
• Oil volumes measurements
• Ignoring low probability high impact
• Corporate management change
• Confusing target
• Data difficult to analyze
• People skills
• Oil & gas price
Can we leave it to the computers?
Kasparov vs. Deep Blue
Automatic System
vs.
Automated System
Detach decision from engineers
Engineers make final decision
(requires strong algorithm / workflow)
(requires experience for each asset)
Can we leave it to the computers?
Kasparov vs. Deep Blue
Automatic System
vs.
Automated System
Detach decision from engineers
Engineers make final decision
(requires strong algorithm / workflow)
(requires experience for each asset)
“Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes”
Oscar Wilde
Thank you