SAJTH, July 2015, Vol. 8, No. 2 Tourist Retention through Development of Superstructure: An Empirical Analysis for Destination Sikkim DEBASISH BATABYAL* *Debasish Batabyal, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Indira Gandhi National Tribal University, Madhya Pradesh, India. ABSTRACT Tourism as an industry needs state of the art infrastructure and superstructure absolutely for its own. This need is more realistic when the destination is situated in the Himalaya and having many attractions with less or no accessibilities. Tourism infrastructure is supply led, but, later on, converts itself to be demand led and more customized with its essential feature of meeting the lumpy supply. This article is an extended approach for the retained visit kept in mind the basic requirements of domestic and foreign tourists in the destination Sikkim. Destination demand and supply led factors have been identified from the earlier literature for providing or improving such tourism infrastructure as may be found relevant. Basic demographic information of tourists have been tested through simple linear regression and only interested tourists are asked for simple ranking for other twelve factors most of which are favouring superstructure development. Here, tourists’ opinions are measured through the non parametric test Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, separately for domestic and international tourists. Two hundred one questionnaires have been found suitable out of four hundred seventy five collected from four district head quarters Gangtak, Namchi, Mangan and Pelling, representing East Sikkim, South Sikkim, North Sikkim and West Sikkim respectively. This relationship is expected to identify and contribute to the area of investment and its viability to destination development strategy. The article is a viable and realistic approach to the decision of developing/investing in capital intensive superstructure. Keywords: Psycho centric Tourist, Infrastructure, Regression, Superstructure, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance. Introduction Sikkim is a small hilly State bounded by stretches of Tibetan plateau in the North, the Chumbi Valley, and the kingdom Bhutan in the East, the kingdom of Nepal in the west and Darjeeling (West Bengal) in the South. Its latitude is 27 030' north and the longitude is 88030' east. Sikkim is famous for scenic valleys forest, snow clad mountains, magnificent Buddhist culture and heritage and peace-loving people. Though small, the environmental, social and cultural diversities are not so. Some scholars believe that the word Sikkim involves Nepalese dialect and it refers to a ‘new place’ or the term has been derived from a Sanskrit word which means a ‘mountain crest’. The people of Sikkim have ethnic diversity. The Bhutias came from Tibet, the Lepchas were the aboriginal community, and the Nepalese came from Nepal. When Sikkim was an independent state and faced many invasions by its neighbouring countries and the king took the help of the British India and, later, © South Asian Journal of Tourism and Heritage 44 DEBASISH BATABYAL gifted some of its region including Darjeeling to the British Government. Sikkim is politically divided into 4 Districts, North (Mangan) being away from large market of West Bengal but with immense tourism potentialities. The capital city of Gangtok enjoys the development of infrastructure, all modern civil amenities, access to health and education facilities and employment opportunities compared to all other 3 Districts, South (Namchi) West (Gyashing) and East (Gangtok). North Sikkim is having idyllic scenic beauties with mountain stretches, East Sikkim receives maximum number of tourists and attractions are Gangtak, Rumtek, Somogo Lake on the way to Nathu La. South Sikkim is famous for Culture and Heritage with Samudraptse. Pelling is situated in West Sikkim from where the majestic Kanchendzonga is seen with its vibrant look. Now this 22nd Indian State (joined Indian Union in 1975) has Over 81% of the total geographical area under the administrative managerial control of the Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of India. Over 45% of the total geographical area of the state is under tree cover and nearly 34% of the geographical area is set aside as protected area network in the form of national park and wildlife sanctuary. The basic statistics of flora and fauna are given here under. Besides, the State is having a wide range of species ranging from one hundred forty four mammals, five hundred fifty birds, six hundred fifty butterflies and moths, five hundred fifty orchids to over four thousand species of flowering plants and three hundred ferns and allies (Economic Survey, Govt. of Sikkim; 2006-07). The maximum summer temperature 280C and minimum winter temperature is 00 C. Sikkim has a variety of mineral resources including coal, limestone, iron ore, graphite, pyrite etc. The temperature in the bottom of the valleys (up to 600 meters) situated at lower elevations, particularly during summers, are similar to the monsoon type of climate. The temperature starts falling between 600 meters and 2000 metres above sea level and the place enjoys cool temperature climatic conditions and further up (2000 metres to 3000 metres) it is cold temperate climate. Arctic type of climate is found above 5000 meters. Sikkim is ecologically a fragile region. The state has the responsibility to conserve its rich biological diversity that includes coexistence and protection of over 5000 species of angiosperm (one third of the total national angiosperms). Again this place has multiethnic communities. So the need for ecological, cultural, and social diversities is not only essential but imperative as well. All these natural, cultural and social resources are directly contributing to the unique selling proposition (USP) of tourism development and marketing. NH-31 is the life line of Sikkim connecting the state with Siliguri of West Bengal and Assam indirectly. The state is connected by rail and helicopter services with the nearest rail head in New Jalpaiguri (about three hours by road) Bagdogra airport in West Bengal. TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 45 Figure 1: Domestic and Foreign Tourist Arrivals in Sikkim Source: Sikkim Tourism Development Corporation, 2014 Arrival statistics of domestic and international tourists for last 23 years ( since 1991) has clearly indicated the dominant position of domestic tourism compared to its foreign tourist arrivals. The consequent effects of earthquake for two consecutive years of 2011 and 2012 resulted in a down fall and even a negative growth in overall arrivals in Sikkim. Review of Literature According to Pearce (1992), destination is a combination of products and services available in one location that drew visitors from beyond its spatial confines. By implication, it was essential to recognize the destination as an entity whose component parts are interdependent whereby a change in one brought about ramifications for all of the others. There were different studies that analyzed the elements that influenced the performance of the destination. Smith (1994, p. 175) defined a tourism region as ‘a contiguous area that was explicitly delineated by a researcher, planner or public agency as having relevance for some aspect of tourism planning, development or analysis’. So, a destination zone was considered one type of regionalization based on an inventory of qualitative characteristics. To define a destination zone was a matter of specifying the characteristics a region and then identified the areas that met those criteria (Smith, 1995). Past empirical studies in the fields of both marketing and tourism confirmed the existence of a strong relationship between overall customer satisfaction and the intention to return and 46 DEBASISH BATABYAL between overall customer satisfaction and the intention to recommend (Zeithaml, Berry, & Parasuraman, 1996). The Tourism Policy 1997 exhibited a belief that the potential of the tourism would be determined by the income levels of inhabitants and was basically a leisure industry not requiring the attention of the planners and administrators. According to this Policy, the belief was based on an information gap that systematically constrained the development of tourism in India over the years. National Action Plan for Tourism which was presented in the Parliament on 5th May 1992 proposed to achieve different types of tourism products, continual growth of tourism infrastructure, effective marketing and promotional efforts in the overseas markets and removal of all impediments of tourism. The Action Plan could not specify the infrastructural requirements and the investments needed to meet the targets and the sources of funding for the same. The Tourism Synergy Program consisting the activities and infrastructural components to be provided by the various agencies including the private sector and State Governments was thus prepared in 1993. It was further modified and converted into a ‘National Strategy for the Development of Tourism’ during 1996. These documents were evident for realizing the importance of tourism and ensuring a consensus on the developmental needs. It also contributed positively to all the infrastructural departments in a coordinated manner and ensured higher plan allocation and introduction of new innovative schemes for accelerated development and growth of tourism. The article ‘Development of Tourism in Goa’ written by Kamath U.D. (1996) explained all round development approaches for Goa in which he evaluated attraction features, seasonality, tourist arrivals, diversification of markets, infrastructure ( mainly transportation and accommodation), basic amenities and all the sincere efforts made by the government and other government owned authorities. Gunn (1979) developed a list of criteria to define tourist destination zones and such criteria were a set of cultural, physical and social characteristics that created a sense of regional/ destination identity, adequate tourism infrastructure, a set of attractions and potential attractions, potentiality to support tourism planning agency and accessibility. According to Diamond (1977, April), destination strategies can be of four types. These were - turnaround strategy, sustainable growth strategy, incremental growth strategy and selective tourism strategy. Turn around strategic approach was resource intensive, demanding a public sector lead and backing from both the industry and residential population. Sustainable growth strategy was less dramatic than turnaround strategy and relied on gradual replenishment of declining markets by seeking out new areas of market potential. However, the original market, though reducing was still nurtured and maintained. This was more of a marketing-led TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 47 approach with lower levels of investment. Incremental growth strategy on the other hand sought a new market and product development was phased over a number of years through test marketing and development projects. Selective tourism strategy relied upon accurate indication of new growth markets. According to him the most appropriate strategy for each resort/destination was dependent on a variety of factors. These were- estimating market, stage in the product life cycle, competitive position of the resort, political and community support, attitude of the tourism industry, available investment and public funds. Miossec (1977) theorized that the development process took an evolutionary form (although not using that term) and depicted the development of infrastructure and facilities in destination areas, including the coalescing of canters and the expansion of transportation networks. Lundgren (1973, 1983) evolved similar ideas exhibiting the patterns of tourist development in the Laurentian area of Canada and elsewhere, although his emphasis was squarely on the transportation element. An evolutionary approach was also implicit in Lundgren’s models and theories, where each spatial expansion of development is based on the infrastructure and facilities existing at the time, which are in turn superseded, and become either redundant or converted. Chavan, R.R.& Bhola, S.S.( 2014) outlined in their article ‘A Perceived Image of Hill Stations of the Satara District, Maharastra-by Domestic Tourists’, the tourist satisfaction with existing tourist amenities at hill stations of Maharashtra Mahabaleshwar and Panchgani located in Satara district and to understand the tourist pattern by means of their demographic profile. They set hypothesis kept in mind the relationship between occupation and perception of tourist towards importance of service and amenities. Their study further examined the relationship between occupation and other tourist details viz. tourist travel pattern, purpose of visit, mode of travel, average length of stay and stay arrangement. In this study, tourist have showed their dissatisfaction only towards air and rail facility and as well felt least important. The result of hypotheses testing reveals that tourists are not satisfied with all available tourist services and amenities. Tourist occupation and purpose of visit, tourist travel pattern, ‘mode of travel used to reach’, average length of stay, stay arrangement, and ‘source used to know the destination’ are independent variables. There was an weak association found between occupation and importance of tourist services and amenities but the results raised the scope for further researches as to confirm the impact of psychological and economical factors in deciding tourism, sustainable tourism development at hill station and to analyze trend of the tourist arrival at hill stations. 48 DEBASISH BATABYAL Objectives of the Study The objectives of the study are To measure the relationship between future visit and type of tour, income of tourists, occupation and other demographic factors for destination Sikkim. To identify and measure important superstructural1 factors to direct the investment and destination development policy for Sikkim. Data Collection Methodology and Hypothesis For collecting the data from the primary sources, a set of structured questionnaire is made for tourists visiting all four districts of Sikkim. The districts headquarters are found to be suitable for conducting survey. Gangtok, Namchi, Pelling and Mangan were chosen as representative places for East, South West and North Sikkim respectively. A total of 475 customers are contacted, and the overall response rate was 42.32% (201 completed, usable questionnaires). As the data collected with an ordinary ranking (e.g. 1 being the most important, then 2 and so on) kept in mind its simplicity for tourists, non parametric Kendell’s coefficient of Concordance is used along with the simple linear regression. In linear regression, data are modelled using linear functions, and unknown model parameters are estimated from the data. Such models are called linear models. Most commonly, linear regression refers to a model in which the conditional mean of y given the value of X is an affine function of X. Less commonly, linear regression could refer to a model in which the median, or some other quartile of the conditional distribution of y given X is expressed as a linear function of X. Like all forms of regression analysis, linear regression focuses on the conditional probability distribution of y given X, rather than on the joint probability distribution of y and X, which is the domain of multivariate analysis. Linear regression was the first type of regression analysis to be studied rigorously, and to be used extensively in practical applications. This is because models which depend linearly on their unknown parameters are easier to fit than models which are non-linearly related to their parameters and because the statistical properties of the resulting estimators are easier to determine. Linear regression has many practical uses. Most applications of linear regression fall into one of the following two broad categories viz. (i) If the goal is prediction, or forecasting, linear regression can be used to fit a predictive model to an observed data set of y and X values. After developing such a model, if an additional value of X is then given without its accompanying value of y, the fitted model can be used to make a prediction of the value of y. (ii) Given a variable y and a number of variables X1, ..., Xp that may be related to y, linear regression analysis can be applied to quantify the strength of the relationship between y and the Xj, to assess which Xj may have no relationship with y at all, and to identify which subsets of the Xj contain redundant information about y. Linear regression models are often fitted using the least squares approach, but they may also be fitted in other ways, such as by minimizing the “lack of fit” in some other norm (as with least absolute deviations 1 Tourism related infrastructure TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 49 regression), or by minimizing a penalized version of the least squares loss function as in ridge regression. Conversely, the least squares approach can be used to fit models that are not linear models. Thus, while the terms “least squares” and linear model are closely linked, they are not synonymous. Given a data set of n statistical units, a linear regression model assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable yi and the p-vector of regressors xi is linear. This relationship is modelled through a so-called “disturbance term” εi — an unobserved random variable that adds noise to the linear relationship between the dependent variable and regressors. Thus the model takes the form where ′ denotes the transpose, so that xi′β is the inner product between vectors xi and β. Often these n equations are stacked together and written in vector form as x1' x11 x1 p 1 y1 1 Where y : , X : , : , : y x ' x x p np n n n n1 The study advocated and used the linear regression model for a composite measure contributing to the future visit and significant direction to the development and management of tourism in Sikkim. Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance, a non-parametric test, determines the degree of association among several (k) sets of ranking of N objects or individuals. It is considered an appropriate measure of studying the degree of association among three or more sets of rankings. This descriptive measure of the agreement has special applications in providing a standard method of ordering objects according to consensus when we do not have an objective order of the objects. The basis of this test is to imagine how the given data would look if there were no agreement among the several sets of rankings, and then to imagine how it would look if there were perfect agreement among all the sets. In our study, the consistency of ranks (Maximum disagreement=0 and Minimum is 1) were tested several times with the appropriate P value. While computing Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance (W), the mean of rank (Rj) was taken into note of with the appropriate consistency. Here, s W ( Rj Rj) 2 s 1k ( N 3 N ) 12 2 k=no. of sets of rankings i.e. the number of respondents N=number of objects ranked 1 = maximum possible sum of square deviations i.e. the sum s 12k 2 ( N 3 N ) 50 DEBASISH BATABYAL which would occur with perfect agreement among k rankings. Any investment depends on its pay back over the coming years. In any service sector, customer retention is found very important and tourism is not exception to that. So, this study has separately identified and analyzed the development potentiality of superstructure, right from its core competency, i.e. future visit to be made by existing tourists visiting Sikkim. The only hypothesis of the study has expanded from apparent demand led demographic factor to a number of supply led institutional factors. Following is the null hypothesis (H0) considered here in the study. H0: The future visit of tourists depends on the institutionalized and supply side infrastructural and superstructural development and not on their income, life cycle stage, occupation and such other internal factors as the destination is mainly for leisure tourism. Data Analysis and Discussion Out of 201 respondents in Gangtak, Mangan, Pelling and Namchi, about 30% tourists are female tourists and others are male. The majority of the income group of domestic tourists are found to be in the slab of Rs. 30000 above. The second important feature is the second largest number of respondents immediately preceding the earlier slab i.e. 20,001-30,000. It is also found that the segment of lower income group is interested to travel the traditionally known leisure tourist destination Sikkim. The majority of the income level of foreign tourists are found to be above Rs.1,00,000 and it is followed by 80,001-1,00000 and 60,001-80,000 respectively. Sikkim receives a considerable number of independent tourists even from the domestic segments and there is a new trend to avail of partial inclusive package of transportation and accommodation units only. Independent tourists don’t book any facility or service in the destination a priori and can avail of all immediately after reach. Figure 2 : Types of Tour in Sikkim Source: Field Survey, 20013-2014 TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 51 Majority of tourists travel Sikkim in group and avail of all inclusive tour packages till date. The above diagram expresses the further scope for measuring the involvement of tourism industry with recent changes. Sikkim is found to the destination of service holders who are associated either in public or private sectors in India or abroad. Second important occupational group is the businessmen who are self employed and travelling either with their family or for the core business purpose. Third group is either students or scholars or house wives. Figure 3: Purpose of Visit in Sikkim by Domestic and International Tourists Source: Field Survey, 20013-2014 A general influx in either case of domestic and international tourists is found in case of ecotourism and to some extent adventure tourism. So, there is an immense growth potentiality for ecotourism, adventure tourism and special interest tourism. The market for special interest tourists has been growing more with the foreign counterparts. There is also a small influx in pilgrimage and Buddhist cultural affiliation. Through their present demographic characteristics and product choice, significant future requirements for infrastructure and superstructure are interpreted. Now the factor ‘future visit’ has been considered to be dependent on income, gender, occupation, marital status and type of tour. So, the model was given here under. FV= I+ O+T+ G+ M+u Here, FV= Future visit for tourists visiting Sikkim, M= Marital status of tourists, O= Occupation of tourists G=Gender of tourists, I=Average monthly income of tourists, T= Type of tour availed of by tourists and u is the constant. Considering the relationship among these variables two regression coefficient tables are prepared for domestic and international tourists. Following result was computed for the model. 52 DEBASISH BATABYAL Table 1: Relationship between Future Visit and Income, Occupation, Gender, Marital Status Type of Tour (of Domestic Tourists) Model: Linear Regression Coefficients t Sig. .213 5.982 .000 -.048 .056 -.855 .394 Occupation .104 .040 -2.594 .010 Gender .060 .059 1.018 .310 Average Monthly Income -.031 .020 -1.563 .120 Type of Tour .025 .025 1.002 Note: Statistical analysis has been made using SPSS statistical Package, Source: Field Survey, 20013-2014 .318 B Std. Error (Constant) 1.272 Marital Status The apparent idea that the tourists will visit the same destination if infrastructural and superstructural facility increases has been rejected as occupation is found to be positively associated with the future visit (seen in table 1). No relationship is evident with the institutional factor types of tour. Again, the regression model ( shown in table 2) for the foreign tourists is more clear as marital status, occupation are positively related with the future visit along with the negative association with the factor gender. So, considering the results of both the table 1 & table 2 it is said that the null hypothesis is contradictory. Table 2: Relationship between Future Visit and Income, Occupation, Gender, Marital Status, Type of Tour (of Foreign Tourists) Model: Linear Regression Coefficients t Sig. .444 .759 .455 .529 .109 4.852 .000 Occupation .155 .063 2.481 .020 Gender -.192 .104 -1.850 .076 Average Monthly Income -.048 .046 -1.051 .303 Type of Tour -.038 .060 -.636 Note: Statistical analysis has been made using SPSS statistical Package, Source: Field Survey, 20013-2014 .530 B Std. Error (Constant) .337 Marital Status TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 53 In another study for the same purpose, twelve explanatory variables are ranked by the tourists who are agreed upon their future visit or retention. Agreed tourists are asked to rank the twelve issues what they did not find in the present trip or emerged as a constraint during their vacation. Better income opportunity is the only factor asked with all the institutionalized issues carefully selected from the review of literature for other hill stations in India and abroad. The mean of ranks and consequent ranks in the study (table 3) shows that the majority of tourists visiting Sikkim are price sensitive except their foreign counterparts. Table 3: Mean of Ranks Showing the Preference of Travel to Sikkim Domestic Foreign All Tourists Tourists Tourists Factors Mean of Mean of Mean of Ranks Ranks Ranks ranks ranks ranks Better income opportunities 3.16 1 3.38 1 4.38 4 Reasonably priced tourist 3.67 2 3.72 2 3.84 2 products Change in attitude of local 8.59 10 8.32 10 9.72 12 people towards tourists Trained staff and their 6.82 7 6.80 7 7.66 9 friendly treatment Information about availability of aids/equipments at 6.05 5 5.95 5 6.58 6 attractions Safety support system 6.64 6 6.66 6 6.97 7 Availability of accessible 4.03 3 3.93 3 3.59 1 vehicles for travel Accessible pathways at 7.66 9 7.60 9 7.56 8 attraction premise Clear signage at all major 9.27 11 9.33 11 8.50 10 points Ramp & elevators at 7.20 8 7.32 8 6.31 5 attractions Effective communication aids 5.19 4 5.37 4 3.88 3 Easily accessible tour 9.72 12 9.63 12 9.02 11 operators Note: Statistical analysis has been made using SPSS statistical Package, Source: Field Survey, 20013-2014 54 DEBASISH BATABYAL Though foreign tourists don’t prioritize ‘better income opportunity’, yet it is the most important for future travel to Sikkim for the maximum tourists. The rank for reasonably priced tour products is second for all tourists and there is no difference in opinion between domestic tourists and their foreign counterparts. So, the null hypothesis is further contradicted with the two above ranks. Most of the foreigners travelling to Sikkim are alternative/adventuresome/special interest tourists but advocated to or emphasized on basic infrastructure such as ‘availability of accessible vehicles for travelling in or around Sikkim’ (ranked one), availability of effective communication aids like better telecommunication facility, postal services, cyber café, information kiosk etc. (ranked three) and ramps & elevators at attractions (ranked five). The rank for availability of effective communication aids is just four for domestic and all travellers. Instead of diluted super structural or tourism related infrastructural facilities foreign tourists expected little more infrastructural facilities along with the moderate fulfilment of their associated derived demand for tourism products and services. Conclusion Majority of the tourists are found to be sensitive towards their demographic issues and not essentially guarantee for their retention with the state of the super structural development. After visiting the place, most of the tourists find a significant number of tourists travelling without travel agents and tour operators and directly with the principal suppliers. So, most of the tourists ask for a reasonably priced tour products, not just with inflated price and below quality services. The majority of domestic tourists want better income opportunity for availing of more facility and future trip, though foreign tourists are questioning for the accessible vehicles and communication and information facility around the State. Also, foreign tourists are not asking for the state of the art superstructure and emphasize more on moderately priced, hygienic food and lodging. Altogether, as Sikkim is found to be a price sensitive destination and as such investment and development of superstructure will not be a profitable venture until and unless it breaks the low ebb of low-spending tourists. But, accessibility to information and transportation facility with high frequency, particularly in remote and lesser known places is immediately needed as the state has initiated new circuits. References Batabyal, D (2014). An Analysis of the WES Production Index for the Measurement of Tourism in Sikkim. In Dutta, S. K. & Sengupta, A. (Ed.) Development, Environment & Sustainable Livelihood, p. 199-210. London, Cambridge Batabyal, D. & Das, D.K. (November 2013). Management of Travel Booking in the TOURIST RETENTION THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERSTRUCTURE 55 Light of Destination Marketing: Evidence from an Alpine Indian State- Sikkim. Indian Journal of Marketing, 43 (11), 36-45. Batabyal, D. (2010) Implication of a scientific destination study in tourism product Management: A case study in Sikkim; HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar, Uttarakhand, India p. 71-81 Chavan, R.R. & Bhola, S.S. (2014). A Perceived Image of Hill Stations of the Satara District, Maharastra-by Domestic Tourists. International Journal of Management & Social Science Research, Vol.3, No.10, pp. 30-43. Diamond, J. (1977, April).Tourism's role in economic development: The case reexamined. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 25(3), 539-553. Gunn, C. A. (1988). Tourism Planning, 2nd edn. New York, Taylor and Francis. Singh, S.,& Singh, T. ( 1996). Profiles in Indian Tourism, (pp. 181-190). New Delhi , A.P.H. Publishing Corporation. Pearce, D. (1995). Tourist organizations, Harlow, Essex, England: Longman Group UK Ltd. Singh, R. (Eds.). (2007). Infrastructure of tourism in India, New Delhi: Kanishka Publishers, Distributors. Sikkim Tourism Policy (2010). Sikkim Tourism Development Corporation. Government of Sikkim. India. Smith, V.L., & Eadington, W.R. (Eds.). (1994). Tourism alternatives: Potentials and problems in the development of tourism. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.