A Multi-Client Study Proposal from the Informa Economics Group LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES; SOLUTION OR PROBLEM August 2012 Background & Study Objectives Over the past decade, Brazil has doubled the size of its exports of dry bulk commodities including principally soybeans, soybean meal and corn. Over the next twelve months, the export capabilities of Brazil will be tested as never before as crop production declines this year and last in North and South America will leave global importers more dependent than ever on exports from Brazil. In the short term, a critical question is how much product can Brazil export during April-August of 2013? Can Brazil sustain a high enough level of exports to satisfy global demand for basic commodities? This raises an even more critical long-term question as to whether Brazil will be able to expand its port and inland infrastructure such that both export and a large and growing domestic demand for basic foodstuffs can be met. The short and long term questions about the logistics capability of Brazil are the main focus of the research described in this prospectus. Looking at the World Economic Forum data for 2010/2011, it is apparent that Brazil – the sixth largest economy in the world – should have a more adequate infrastructure and logistics system and in fact will need to significantly improve this sector of its economy if increases in exports and domestic consumption are expected to continue. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Understanding the difficulties that Brazil is facing regarding its logistical challenges and issues, this study has been designed to both quantify and characterize the main activities and chokepoints involved in the export of dry bulk commodities: transport (road, rail and river); warehousing and ports. Transport Transport improvement is one of the most critical factors required to boost Brazil´s global competitiveness in commodity exports. While Brazil is of continental size, the transport network is relatively limited and focused on expensive road transport. While the USA transports some 49% of soybeans to initial market position via roads, Brazilian roads account for 53% of total tonnage transported. This difference is even more pronounced on soybean movements to ports with over 90% of US soybeans moving to port via rail or barge and less than half of Brazilian soybeans moving to ports via these modes. More importantly, the Brazilian roads are generally in poor condition thus impacting time to ports and processing units as well as product losses. Regarding rail, the country only has some 30 thousand kilometers of rail track, most of which is located in the southern portion of the country. Compared to the USA, Brazil has one seventh the rail system. And finally, regarding waterways – accounting for some 28 thousand kilometers of navigable rivers – 13% of total cargo transported – only one half are currently being exploited for commercial transportation. This situation is compounded by the fact that a good portion of the new grain and oilseed production is migrating to the Central West region of the country, increasing transport mileage to ports from a region with even greater transport problems than the rest of the country. Soybean Modal Shares in Brazil and United States 100% 7 11 90% 20 24 80% Soybean Modal Shares 33 36 70% 20 27 60% Waterways 50% Railways Highways 40% 30% 60 60 53 49 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2005 Brazil Source: ANEC (Brazil) and USDA (United States) 2010 United States LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Warehousing/Storage Quite different from other countries, on-farm storage facilities are minimal in Brazil. In the USA, more than 55% of total grain and soybeans storage is located on farms, while in Brazil; only 16% of the capacity is located on farms. As such, farmers rely to a great extent on grain traders and intermediaries to store their crop. Aside from the fact that there is a deficiency in grain/oilseed storage capacity, this deficiency is acute in the Central West region of the country where the production of grains and oilseeds is increasing. However, since 2003 grain and soybean storage in Brazil has increased from 90 million metric tons to more than 140 million in 2012 to keep pace with increased soybean and corn production. Brazil Grain Storage Capacity by Region 160 140 Million Metric Tons 120 100 North Northeast 80 Center-West Southeast South 60 Crop Production 40 20 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 0 Source: CONAB Ports Having one of the longest coastlines in the world, Brazil´s port infrastructure also is inadequate when considering the nation’s volume (current and potential) of agricultural production and exports. With a total of some 50 inland and seaports, nearly all are owned by federal, state and/or city governments. The port terminals and facilities, however, are mainly private-owned and, about 90% of export cargo is moved through privately-owned port terminals. Major problems detected in port services are red tape, poor access to port facilities (mainly roads and rail) and strong port unions. Port problems include draft issues, limited load/unload capacity, space for expansion and environmental issues which require time to resolve (red tape). LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Government Role The federal government has been aware of the inadequacies of the logistics systems in Brazil for quite some time. Looking back at the last 10-20 years, it can be said that little has been done to rectify this situation. Brazil seems to be good at planning: however, implementation is a pitfall, primarily due to politics, red tape and the growing topic of environmental issues. The federal government has developed a long-term national transport and logistics program – National Plan for Transportation & Logistics (NPTL) – out to 2023 which has earmarked US$146 billion to transport/logistics issues. The NPTL will give greater focus to rail and waterways, yet tangible results have been few to this moment. Another federal government program is PAC (Accelerate Growth Program) which earmarked significant funds for logistics in the 2007-2010 period. Results, to date are similar to NPTL; minimal! In sum, there is considerable work needed to improve Brazil´s infrastructure and logistics systems. It is hoped that this study will aid the reader in identifying possible investment opportunities in the activities described within the scope of this study. Study Scope This study is focused on the main activities involved in getting the farm-gate crop to the port and/or the crushing/processing units. The evaluation and assessment of those activities in this study include: Inland transport from farm gate to market position, either crushing/processing unit or to port; Intermediary transport from off-farm warehousing unit to port or processing unit; Off-farm warehousing activities, and Port and terminal activities. Those agricultural products to be included in the scope of the effort include: Soybeans and meal; Corn; Cotton; Sugar; and Coffee. While rice production is important to Brazil, it has relatively small export volumes and, as such will not be assessed. All perishable goods, meats and liquid products are not in the scope of this study. Some production and export data on these crops may be included in the final report to give the reader a complete picture of dry bulk logistics needs. Study Methodology This study is based on a methodology that starts with extensive desk research. One of the prime sources of data will be Informa Economics FNP´s exclusive database. Secondary sources will include a vast list of institutions, government agencies and other infrastructure entities and private industry sources which will enable Informa Economics FNP to build up a solid base of quantitative and qualitative information on infrastructure costs, deficiencies and opportunities in Brazil. This secondary sourcing will not be limited to Brazilian sources, LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES understanding that the report will benchmark transport, warehousing and port efficiency with that of the USA. Another important point is that Brazilian port facilities may be influenced by external factors such as the expansion of the Panama Canal. And lastly, this effort will require interviews with key players in the dry bulk, commodity crops sector. The opinions of such interviews will be a base-line for some of the premises for future trends regarding infrastructure and logistics needs and identifying business opportunities. Preliminary Study Outline Knowing that each client has specific needs, the critical issues to derive a full understanding of the logistics situation in Brazil are summarized in the proposed outline for this study. Section 1 – Introduction Basic Data on Brazil Economy Basic Data on Brazil´s Agricultural Sector/Production System Global Benchmarking - Logistics Value Chain for Major Crops Maps of Critical Infrastructure and Agricultural Factors Section 2 – Transportation Introduction Transport Modes for Bulk Grains/Oilseeds o Road Introduction Maps Road Conditions Mileage Tables/Maps Types of Trucks o Rail Introduction Maps Mileage Tables/Maps Types of Rail Cars o Waterway Introduction Maps Mileage Tables/Maps Types of Barges o Intermodal Characterization of Transport Companies o Road o Rail o Waterway Transport Costs for Bulk Grains/Oilseeds o Road o Rail o Waterway o Intermodal LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Farm Gate to Commercial Warehouse Commercial Warehouse to Port or Crushing Unit Types of Transport Companies Contractual Agreements Losses in Transit & Timing Issues Trends Government Programs Section 3 – Crop Warehousing Introduction On vs. Off-Farm Storage Related Warehousing Activities & Costs Locational Analysis of Warehousing Facilities Types of Warehousing Companies o Multinationals o Local/Regional o Coops o Others Warehousing Losses Trends Government Programs Section 4 – Ports Introduction Port Infrastructure in Brazil Port & Terminal Norms Major & Potential Ports for High-Volume Grains o By Port Incoming/Outgoing Volumes Destinations Seasonality Routing Options/Frequency Basic Port Characteristics o Private vs. Public Ports/Terminals Impact of Panama Canal Expansion o Which ports will benefit? o Impact of Brazil´s competitive situation Trends Programs o Where will government programs have an impact? Section 5 – Government Role in Infrastructure & Logistics Transport Systems Warehousing Ports LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Section 6 – Impact/Implications of Infrastructure on Agricultural Sector Assessment of infrastructure developments on agriculture Economic impacts of improvements to infrastructure Section 7 – Crop Production Trends Soybeans Corn Cotton Coffee Sugar Other Crops Section 8 – Final Considerations and Conclusions A final consideration will be the impact that the near term export requirements will have on the transport and infrastructure system, and what the will portend for future development. In this regard, the study team will assess and quantify the maximum export potential (on a monthly and yearly basis) for Brazil near term and over the next ten years. The ten year outlook will represent a “base case” forecast given current and the most likely scenario for future investment into the system. The study team also will identify critical bottlenecks that will require financing and investment. The objective for the clients of this study is to identify “problems” in the system and turn them into “opportunities” or at the very least allow impacted companies to use the information to mitigate “threats” to their operations. Note that some of the issues listed above and topics may be adjusted or modified based on client needs and input. Who Should Participate in this Study? This study is designed to bring value to every segment and participant in the agro-industrial food, feed and fiber value chains in the Americas as well as globally. The evolution of the logistics structure in Brazil will impact the following players: Grain and oilseed traders; Food processors; International infrastructure construction contractors; Heavy duty equipment manufacturers; Financial institutions and investment entities; Maritime companies: Transportation and logistics companies which provide services to farmers and other players in the value chain; Service providers for certification, traceability and warehousing; Agriculture consultants; Port authorities in other countries: and Government-related entities. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Study Deliverables Clients will receive a comprehensive report in Power Point format. Note that all qualitative aspects of the effort will be textually presented, yet attempting to avoid – as much as possible – “reader fatigue”. The fully documented report will include all relevant background statistics, analyses, maps and evaluations, and supporting detail developed during the study. To better exemplify the final results of this study, below are a few of the main questions to be answered: What are the prevailing transport warehousing and port costs/fees for main commodities? Have they been declining over time? What are prospects of transport costs falling in near future? If so, by how much? What are the factors which will be driving transport, warehousing and port costs? Benchmark inland transport costs with USA. Benchmark warehousing costs with USA. Benchmark port/terminal costs with USA. How does Brazil compare to other major commodity players with regard to logistics issues? On a global basis, where are the barriers and opportunities in Brazil for logistics? Considering the three main factors – transport costs, warehousing and port facilities – what are the main barriers to reduce logistics costs for commodities? Considering transport, warehousing and port activities, which are considered major barriers in development and underlying reasons for this? Government support and incentives are critical for long-term infrastructure projects. What is the federal government´s position regarding such investments made either by locals and foreign investors? What is the federal government´s track record in execution of infrastructure/logistics programs? What are the business opportunities in the logistics´ value chains for dry bulk commodities? Will the expansion of the Panama Canal impact Brazilian logistics? Project Schedule Pre-Study Conference Call: A call-in meeting of participating clients and Informa study staff will be held to review the detailed plans for the study and to identify particular areas and issues that clients want to receive special attention. This conference call will address the major study topics and enable specific client comments and interests relating to each to be noted. Post Study Seminar: Informa Economics staff will present the results of the effort at a concluding, day-long client seminar, with ample time for the group to participate in discussing the implications of the study findings. The seminar location can either be in Brazil or the USA and will be decided by the clients. Final Report Presentation at Clients´ Offices: Informa Economics staff will be available to present the final study results on an individual client basis at no additional cost except for out-of-pocket travel expenses. These meetings will be designed to meet the client’s specific needs and provide a unique opportunity to stimulate discussion within the client’s organization. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Preliminary Project Schedule: A tentative schedule is given below and will be adjusted after the signups have been completed: September - Pre-Study Conference and Kick-Off January - Study completed and final report sent to clients January - Client seminar to review findings To be defined - Individual presentations at client offices Study Fees The study fees are US$13, 500 for Informa Economics clients. Non-client fees are US$16,500. These fees will be billed 50 percent upon the study’s initiation and 50 percent upon delivery of the report. The above fees do not include travel costs for the client to a possible conference and/or seminar. Study Team Informa Economics, Inc. is a world leader in broad-based domestic and international agricultural and commodity/product market research, analysis, evaluation and consulting. The company was founded in 1977 and in 2003, was acquired by Informa plc. (“Informa”). Informa Economics, Inc. serves hundreds of firms, institutions and trade organizations worldwide from headquarters in Memphis, Tennessee. Informa Economics FNP, founded in 1989, is a subsidiary of the Informa Economics group. Informa Economics FNP is a leading provider of agricultural, livestock and agribusiness information on the Brazilian market. Informa Economics FNP has over one thousand clients, both based in Brazil and South America. Informa Economics FNP´s services include: Publications on the agricultural and livestock sector in Brazil; Newsletters on the meat sector and biofuels; Ad hoc consulting services; and Market research services in Brazil. The project study team will consist of a unique combination of specialists from Informa Economics FNP in Brazil and the USA. The study team will be led by Richard John Brostowicz, located in Brazil, and Ken A. Eriksen at the Memphis headquarters. Richard J. Brostowicz, Business Intelligence and International Consulting Lead, has been with Informa Economics FNP since 2003. In this period with the company, Richard has supervised and worked directly on over 60 projects in consulting and market research as well as other risk analysis, feasibility and site location efforts. He began his career at Informa Economics FNP in the Business Intelligence area with focus on market research initiatives with international clients. Prior to Informa Economics FNP, Richard worked some 24 years at Monsanto’s Brazilian operation located in São Paulo. In this company, he worked in numerous departments, including Planning, New Business Development, and Manufacturing and ended his career at Monsanto, establishing the Business Intelligence Department. Some of the highlights of his career at Monsanto include the successful approval of NutraSweet in Brazil, approval of Lactotropin (Bovine Somatotropin) for commercial use in Brazil and the reorganization and implementation of a hybrid distribution system for agricultural chemicals LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES and seeds. Richard also worked some eight years as a financial director for a venture capital firm in Brazil and a few years in consumer market research. He received his bachelor’s degree in marketing from the University of Wisconsin and later completed a post-graduate program in economics with OAS – Organization of American States. Ken A. Eriksen, Senior Vice President. Since 2011, Mr. Eriksen has been the leader of Informa Economics' Transportation, Industrials and Energy Services Group. In this capacity, he directs the group's efforts in client service, research, risk management, consulting and events. Since joining Informa in 2001, Mr. Eriksen has led Informa's transportation services and co-led Informa's project consulting practice. Mr. Eriksen regularly speaks on transportation and infrastructure issues and developments, and is an expert witness in the area of transportation, logistics and supply-chain matters. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Eriksen worked for the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service as an agricultural statistician. In that capacity, he conducted national surveys and set national estimates in agriculture. Also while at USDA, he worked for the Agricultural Marketing Service on its transportation and marketing program, conducting research and analysis on domestic and international transportation issues. He also worked as an international longshoreman for the Pacific Maritime Association in Tacoma, Washington. He received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees in agribusiness and agricultural economics from Washington State University. While working on his master’s degree there, Mr. Eriksen was a transportation economist for the Department of Agricultural Economics, performing economic transportation data analysis and modeling. José Vicente Ferraz, senior consultant, is one of the founders of Informa Economics FNP and has been with the company since its inception in 1990. He is a graduate from the University of São Paulo’s agronomic division (ESALQ) and received his MBA from Fundação Getúlio Vargas. Among some of his major accomplishments at Informa Economics FNP, Vicente was responsible for the launch of the company’s key yearbooks – AgriAnual and AnualPec. He has coordinated, worked on or has been involved in over 200 ad hoc consultancy efforts for the company ranging from commodity crops, reforestation, beef cattle to biofuel feedstocks. Over the past ten years, Vicente has specialized in the livestock sector and is considered one of the experts in the Brazilian beef sector. Prior to his career at Informa Economics FNP, Vicente held executive positions with the Bonfiglioli Group, and Fundap and RSL, two Brazilian consulting companies. He is also a full member research of NAIPPE, a center of high studies on public policies and strategic issues. Juliana Rocha. Juliana is an agronomist with post graduate courses in the derivatives markets for agricultural products. She has five years of professional experience, two of which at CEPEA/ESALQ (Advanced Studies in Applied Economy) and another two years at GEA/ESALQ (agronomic initiatives). Juliana is an analyst at Informa Economics FNP and has been involved in numerous projects related to the crop and livestock sectors, including a multinational report on Brazilian farmer profiles, a foliar fertilizer survey as well as coordinating efforts for price monitoring programs for agricultural inputs. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Nadia Alcantara. Nadia is a certified veterinarian with a master’s degree in Business Administration. She currently is responsible for all strategic reports, including the commodity reports (soybeans, corn, cotton and cane), the livestock report and the land acquisition and rental reports. Also, Nadia is responsible for all ad hoc consulting services which deal with national accounts. Some of her efforts in ad hoc consulting focused on a special report on Mapitoba (Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia) farming opportunities, a business identification effort for dairy cattle, a due diligence effort for soybeans in the Mapitoba region and a consulting job for fruits and vegetables and beef meats. Prior to Informa Economics FNP, Nadia worked some three years with a Brazilian consulting group with focus on agribusiness strategies. In finalizing this effort, Bruce Scherr, Tom Scott and Mauricio Mendes will be involved in the analysis of this study. The bios of these professionals are shown below: Bruce A. Scherr, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. Scherr has been with Informa Economics, Inc. (formerly Sparks Companies, Inc.) since 1987 in several executive capacities including President and CEO. In addition, he was an Advisor for Metalmark Capital LLC, a private equity fund. Formerly he was president of Sparks, Jacobs, Scherr, Inc. (SJS), a sister company to Sparks, and president of Agri-Commodities, Inc., an agriculture consulting firm based in Andover, Massachusetts, which was acquired by SJS. Prior to forming Agri-Commodities, Dr. Scherr was a divisional vice president at Data Resources, Inc., where he developed and utilized for the public and private sectors the first commercially available econometric model for US agriculture. Dr. Scherr received his bachelor's degree from Rutgers University and his master's and doctorate degrees from Purdue University, all in agricultural economics. Currently, he is a member of the Board of Trustees of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, E. Ritter & Company, and he serves as a member of the Global Strategy Institute Advisory Council of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served as a member of the Board of Directors for Desert STAR Inc., an electrical transmission Independent System Operator for the Desert Southwest from January 2000 through February 2002. In addition, Dr. Scherr has served as a member of The University of Tennessee's (UT) Institute of Agriculture Agricultural Development Board and UT's Committee for the Future. He was named a 2007 Distinguished Agriculture Alumni from Purdue University and he is a member of several honorary research and agricultural societies, a member of the National FFA Foundation Sponsors' Board 2000 through 2001 and a former advisor to the President's Council of Economic Advisers and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Thomas P. Scott, President and Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Scott has been with Informa since 1989 with the majority of that time being the head of the Informa Economics Memphisbased Project Consulting Group. Mr. Scott's specialized work has included business strategy, agribusiness economic development, feasibility and site selection work, as well as various market analyses. In addition to his work in North America, Mr. Scott has extensive experience in the agribusiness sectors of Central Europe, Southeast Asia and South America. He has been involved in many training programs developed and delivered by Informa Economics. Prior to joining the company, he had various assignments in management, trading, logistics and merchandising with Continental Grain Company. He received his bachelor's degree in agricultural economics and business from Cornell University and a master's degree in business administration from the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration at Dartmouth College where he was an Amos Tuck Scholar. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES Mauricio Mendes is the CEO of the company and has been with Informa Economics FNP for 13 years. He started his career at Informa Economics FNP in the commercial division and his main responsibilities were the coordination of feasibility projects financial analysis and risk assessment services. Although Mauricio has taken the CEO role since 2005, he is still actively involved in most major projects. Prior to Informa Economics FNP, he was a consultant with GCONCI, the leading agricultural consulting group in the citrus sector. Mauricio is an agronomic graduate from ESALQ and received his MBA from Fundação Getúlio Vargas University. Recently, Mauricio was involved in an ad hoc project, evaluating port facilities in Brazil and Argentina. Other professionals will provide their expertise on an “as needed” basis. LOGISTICS IN BRAZIL: BARRIERS & OPPORTUNITIES ENROLLMENT FORM Yes, I want to purchase the multi-client study entitled “Logistics in Brazil: Barriers & Opportunities; Solution or Problem” – A Multi-Client Study. The cost of the study is: __US$ 13,500 for Informa Economics and Informa Economics FNP clients __US$ 16,500 for Non-clients Please have someone contact me to provide further information. FAX to Informa Economics at (901) 766-8158 FAX to Informa Economics FNP at 55-11- 4504-1411 Name: Signature: Title: Company: Street Address: City, Province/State, Code: Telephone: Fax: E-mail Address: Mr. Tom Scott President and Chief Operating Officer Informa Economics, Inc. 775 Ridge Lake Blvd., Suite 400 Memphis, TN 38120 Phone: (901) 766-4586 Fax: (901) 766-8158 Email: tom.scott@informaecon.com Mr. Richard Brostowicz Business Intelligence Lead Informa Economics FNP Rua Bela Cintra, 967 – 11th Floor 01415-000 São Paulo SP Brazil Phone: + 55 11 4504-1447 Fax: + 55 11 4504-1411 Email: richard.brostowicz@informaecon-fnp.com